Rich do you think the market has peaked for the time being and this is the start of a correction, or is it just another head fake to chase money into treasuries for the auctions next week?
It's obvious we need another gubbmint program which puts us further in debt AND mandates the destruction of more capital.
Maybe we should offer a $50K home buyer credit. However to qualify for the credit one would have to verifiably destroy $60K in existing housing capital.
Reading over Bill Gross's comments from Bloomberg I realized that he is the CEO of the bond vigilantes but is completely at the mercy of government policy. The friction between policy makers and their need to be reelected and the fiscal responsibility necessary to get government debt under control is tremendous. The bond market needs to believe that the debt is repayable but they also are dependent on the bailouts, tough dichotomy.
I imagine it to be the San Andreas fault of our financial system. The friction will build until a major slip happens. Ironic the San Andreas fault is between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate and in California.
Pigged...
I was wondering about earlier research on derivatives & credit risk...
Research in 1995:
'Pricing derivatives securities for credit risk...two types of credit risks are considered...the asset underlying the derivative security may default...the writer of the derivative security may default...' JSTOR: The Journal of Finance, Vol. 50, No. 1 (Mar., 1995), pp. 53-85
Ten or twelve more days like this and the market overpressure danger will have been decanted. I don't want an implosion so I view today's market action as good, rational and prudent.
The long awaited Wile E. Coyote moment? A meaningful slide here would make sense. Unlikely they can levitate the markets for another quarter with treasury purchases running out. Besides, bankers will get their Q3 bonuses based on the peak -- Looting complete? Now they can roll those freshly "earned" dollars into puts, while the real economy burns.
Prices paid for GM, Ford and Chrysler vehicles rose by $2,000 on average in the second quarter as automakers slashed production, J.D. Power said. Incentives fell by 26 percent from March to August, according to Autodata Corp.
"If we all join hands and go buy a new SUV, everything will be all right," - Bob McTeer, Dallas Fed governor
"What we dearly want is for Americans to spend like Americans – to do the patriotic thing and go out and spend," - Bill McDonough, head of the New York Fed, October '01.
Why can't they see that too much debt IS the problem?
Prices paid for GM, Ford and Chrysler vehicles rose by $2,000 on average in the second quarter as automakers slashed production, J.D. Power said. Incentives fell by 26 percent from March to August, according to Autodata Corp.
Rich do you think the market has peaked for the time being and this is the start of a correction, or is it just another head fake to chase money into treasuries for the auctions next week?
I think this is a real correction, first phase of dollar weakness.
My view all along has been that once dollar weakness takes hold, it would not be good for either stocks or bonds. Only real assets.
Today, of course, stocks way down, bonds way up.
I'm not moving money from short stocks to bonds just yet. But at some point, I will.
Ten or twelve more days like this and the market overpressure danger will have been decanted. I don't want an implosion so I view today's market action as good, rational and prudent.
No One (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 1:05 pm
*Buy the dip! Buy the dip! *
Kinda ties to North Face Goes After South Butt Over Trademark Infringement
UNG – United States Natural Gas ETF – Shares of the natural gas exchange-traded fund are currently off by more than 1% to $11.80. One investor has picked up some serious downside protection on the fund today by purchasing a large chunk of put options in the April 2010 contract. We believe the trader is likely holding a long stock position in the UNG. It appears the trader purchased 31,000 puts at the April 9.0 strike for a premium of 75 cents per contract. The net cost of the put options amounts to $2,325,000. Shares of UNG would need to decline 30% from the current price before downside protection kicks in beneath the breakeven point at $8.25. Perhaps the put buyer expects the fund to reach a new 52-week low by expiration in April. The current 52-week low of $8.94 was attained on September 3, 2009. We note that it is always possible the trader is essentially shorting the stock and placing a large bearish bet on the ETF in order to profit from downward movement in the share price.
Not happy about the fact its down per se., just happy its acting rational/realistic.
I don't know. There was a fair bit of off news today, and we're only down 2% or so. If it was rational the market would have been the headline story tonight.
An awful lot of expectations needed to be rewritten today.
Yes, Friday looks to be interesting folks...what will the market magician pull out of his hat. Man just didn't see the 200 drop on the Dow coming, sure 120-140 points...but not the whole 200.
As longs as there are bets the house wins. Only when the gamblers stay away or keep their money in their pockets can the house lose. But if the marks think they are marks they do just that...
A significant number of indicators are either not showing improvement or are headed back down. The seasonal declines will reinforce the growing negative perceptions.
Bernanke should have avoided the 'mission accomplished' victory lap; the world is not all banks and bankers and he cannot pave everybody's way out of reality even if he owns the printing press.
BTW - talked to a couple guys in non-auto mfg business & they just closed the book on Sep 09. Worst month yet - absolutely dismal.
This is my impression also, although it's all anecdotal. This past summer gave back quite a bit to people I know who are involved in the manufacturing (auto and non-auto) sectors. I hope their smiles are all as broad when I see them around Christmas as they were when I saw them all camping.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:08 pm
But I'm sure they are "well capitalized." GE Capital Corp Sells $3.5B FDIC-Backed Bonds - WSJ.com
Rob Dawg wrote:
Ten or twelve more days like this and the market overpressure danger will have been decanted. I don't want an implosion so I view today's market action as good, rational and prudent.
me too - about effing time
Amen brother. What concerns me is if rational returns too quickly. Say some big player wakes up one bleary hung over morning and looks next to him and decides to chew off his arm rather than risk disturbing the market he's married we could see a return to traditional mid recession P/E ratios.
As the old joke goes; "Don' aks mi Señor. I am only the bridesmaid."
Bernanke should have avoided the 'mission accomplished' victory lap; the world is not all banks and bankers and he cannot pave everybody's way out of reality even if he owns the printing press.
He can pave everybody's way out of reality with paper.
For a year, I've seen nothing that indicates Bernanke fears dollar devaluation in the least. It's his best friend. Soon, his only friend.
The decline in trash stocks was something else today, some of the ones I watch because they are mortgage-related:
RDN -14.5%
MTG -10.7%
ABK -10.1%
MBI -10.7%
These are all stocks that IMHO are trading with market caps well above fundamental value. All hit highs recently that were 10X their lows. All poster children for the excess liquidity in the market.
I am wondering if the slowdown in the UST POMOs and the MBS POMOs are starting to have an effect on the excess liquidity?
Excess liquidity to a market is like gasoline to a fire - you need a constant supply to keep the fire stoked.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:07 pm
Not happy about the fact its down per se., just happy its acting rational/realistic.
I don't know. There was a fair bit of off news today, and we're only down 2% or so. If it was rational the market would have been the headline story tonight.
If it was a rational market, it wouldn't be up ~50% since Mar.
"He can pave everybody's way out of reality with paper.
For a year, I've seen nothing that indicates Bernanke fears dollar devaluation in the least. It's his best friend. Soon, his only friend. "
rich, for me this is the great unknown going forward - to what extent will Bernanke continue his foolish quest against deflation, and continue to kill the dollar?
Will he step up even more QE, or will he throw in the towel?
Lest we forget. It was merely a few months ago that these down days were the norm. Plenty of grumbles when we didn't hit circuit breaker after being teased again and again.
Nemo's link to the Yahoo CIT board proved to me that there are an ASTOUNDING number of irrational players yet to be wiped out. FFS Cramer is still on the air, after the drubbing he took on the Daily Show, showing what a hack he is. All those sheep lining up to be fleeced.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:17 pm
noob goldberg wrote:
97 users and 613 guests?
Is this a reliable gloom index?
666 used to be the magic number. That said, I'd suggest something like:
%change in S&P + %change in oil - % change in long term treasuries
Of course, if I really knew anything,I'd be rich
"BTW - talked to a couple guys in non-auto mfg business & they just closed the book on Sep 09. Worst month yet - absolutely dismal."
I'm seeing (in architecture and construction) that the firms that held up through the worst of last winter and this summer are now finally laying off people and thinking that this winter might be worse than last. It is either the dark before the dawn or it is downward leg #2.
SP500 at 500, Dawg? wooohoooo - I would be loading up if we got there... I've been waiting all summer to increase my stocks allocation ... currently 30% stocks, 40% bonds, 30% cash.... heading to 60% stocks, 35% bonds, 5% cash...
I not rooting for a "recovery" at all, at least not in the same sense that the CNBC propagandists are. I never, ever, ever, want to see such financial foolishness again.
Quite frankly, I'm tired of competing with stupidity.
All the Fed's excess liquidity and leverage does is allow the financial sector to lay claim to all future inflation and earnings. Is it any wonder we don't produce anything anymore? The wealth has already been claimed.
I mean, you look at correlations and you leave out the ginormous causation (credit bubble) and somehow you are shocked, shocked that your correlations didnt hold up.
"I'm seeing (in architecture and construction) that the firms that held up through the worst of last winter and this summer are now finally laying off people and thinking that this winter might be worse than last. It is either the dark before the dawn or it is downward leg #2."
Regarding architecture and construction, the problem is TMOE: Too Much Of Everything is already built.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:24 pm
Cinco-X wrote:
666 used to be the magic number.
Is this number's history available? It would be interesting to see it plotted against something. Just for fun.
That was in the HaloScan days; I doubt it was recorded because it was always in flux-
With the proposed EPA CO2 rules now being released, I think manufacturers will be thinking twice about locating or expanding in the U.S. First, electricity cost and fuel costs will be going up significantly, and, second, if they modify their facilities in any material way, they have to install the best technology to reduce CO2 emissions. Mexico, China and India have to be applauding this development.
Terry (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:30 pm
With the proposed EPA CO2 rules now being released, I think manufacturers will be thinking twice about locating or expanding in the U.S. First, electricity cost and fuel costs will be going up significantly, and, second, if they modify their facilities in any material way, they have to install the best technology to reduce CO2 emissions. Mexico, China and India have to be applauding this development.
Looks like they're going to have to destroy the country in order to save it-
*Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:32 pm
Sans manufacturing, I envision our country as this quaint pastoral place, with a few hundred million handguns @ the ready.
*
"Mexico, China and India have to be applauding this development. "
If Mexico could figure out a way to put in a reliable, beefy electrical grid, they could probably get a lot of industry. But they never seems to be able to make the infrastructure investments to keep up.
I remember when big electricity users were decamping from SoCal to Oregon. That lasted awhile, until it didn't.
Naaa. I'm just an IT minion. We're just doing the mechanics of the lending. We, of course, don't make policy (and like all good minions - I'd sell plutonium fertilizer if I thought it wouldn't hurt me personally and "they" paid me to do it).
Were they not the ones doing the shorting? I SURE would like to see those guys on the wrong end of the bet for once. But since they pull the levers that does not seem too likely.
"If Mexico could figure out a way to put in a reliable, beefy electrical grid, they could probably get a lot of industry. But they never seems to be able to make the infrastructure investments to keep up.
I remember when big electricity users were decamping from SoCal to Oregon. That lasted awhile, until it didn't. "
Bet you all the refiners and power generators just eliminated all capex out of their budgets for the next few years - while I am sure that the rules will be litigated (for leaving out the small producers), no way would either business run the risk of having to incur the costs of CO2 mitigation.
Well, enough fun for one day. After entertaining a large group of visitors from France, I feel the urge to head home, butter a baguette and drink some wine. L8R all.
market-look for bounce around 1018-20....1039 looks like resistance......
car sales numbers for Sept were still helped out by c4c...they had a couple days to make deals in beginning of mos. and get them into pipeline..plus many people came in late and walked out with dealer incentive to match...
Mike in Long Island (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 4:50 pm
I wonder how far or fast the market would have to fall for another short ban?
Ask Congress.
I just talked to a friend. He is going all in. This is it. Small biz is toast. House is over maxed and sliding down foreclosure lane. Take a loan against his last asset and is going into " House Wholesaleing" What ever that is. Because now is the time to make money in real estate selling to investors. What can you say? It is all he has to hold on to. The dream of the big score.
It is simply finding a bargain property and passing it on to a bargain hunter. That bargain hunter will be an investor who will either purchase the property to resell it or purchase it to hold it for rental income. Your profit as a wholesaler should be between $5000 and $15,000 on each house. In some cases it will be higher than $15,000 and on some deals your profit may be a little lower than $5,000.
Yes until they became the pray - suddenly it got too close to home and Hanky had to help.
Makes me wonder how Timmy would behave. Couple of books out now saying that Hanky was pretty much running the Gov for the last half of 2008. Given that O' is pretty much carrying on, his actions are pretty much our policy now.
Thanks. I knew it had to be something lame. He has taken "courses" and has a "mentor." Shit. I think the panic of getting old and the knowledge that it has to be soon or else is not helping.
It is simply finding a bargain property and passing it on to a mark. That mark will be an “investor” who will either purchase the property to resell it or purchase it to hold it for rental income. Your profit as a scam-artist should be between $5000 and $15,000 on each house. In some cases it will be higher than $15,000 and on some deals your profit may be a little lower than $5,000.
I thought MP had stated that gov intervention rendered Conjure somewhat moot. i.e. it is up to Ben how much QE he uses to prop up markets. Given the dollar rally today, there is not much stopping him.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:02 pm
I thought MP had stated that gov intervention rendered Conjure somewhat moot. i.e. it is up to Ben how much QE he uses to prop up markets. Given the dollar rally today, there is not much stopping him.
Must've missed that; gotta work and sleep some time
I know a fair amount of people over 50 and I am really starting to smell panic. Fear that - this is it. Time has run out on them. Schemes and dreams is all I hear to fix it too. The more scared they are - the more stupid the solution. Yesterday it was sellling power drinks or some such crap from home using your computer...
People watch their 301k melt back to 201 is going to really be interesting.
My daughter told me her new gov teacher told them he had retired but his small biz (candy store!) failed and he had to come back to teaching. He barely gives a shit according to her.
*lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:05 pm
How come CR is leaving out the blue at the end of the charts? He thinks the recession is over?
*
CR went long in the market at the end of March; it is over for him
Whitaker Center in Harrisburg - 6
Special Metals in Huntington - 17
Saint - Gorbain Ceramics - 26
Denso Car Part Maker ( International ) - 730
Ebay Germany - 400
Tredyffrin Township - 11
Great Dane Trailers - Temporary Shut down - 67 Layoffs
German State Bank Plans - 2,500 over next 4 years
City of Cincinnati 2010 Budget - Layoffs Likely
Sullivan County - Possible Layoffs
City of Dallas - Last Day for Hundreds of Employees
Lafarge Company - 35 Temp Layoffs
City of Findlay - 34 and Tax Increase?
Idaho Public Television - 2
UC Riverside - Furlough Days vs Layoffs
Transmission Games - 20+?
Ash Grove Cement Company - Temp Layoffs Coming?
The Orchard - 20% of Staff
Chrysler Financial - 360
Arkansas ACORN - 4
"I just talked to a friend. He is going all in. This is it. Small biz is toast. House is over maxed and sliding down foreclosure lane. Take a loan against his last asset and is going into " House Wholesaleing" What ever that is. Because now is the time to make money in real estate selling to investors. What can you say? It is all he has to hold on to. The dream of the big score."
Lawyerliz, yes, I've argued the "technical" recession ended in July ... so I've started leaving the blue off the graphs. There is a difference between the technical recession, and anything that looks like real growth.
"I know a far amount of people over 50 and I am really starting to smell panic. Fear that - this is it. Time has run out on them. Schemes and dreams is all I hear to fix it too. The more scared they are - the more stupid the solution. Yesterday it was sellling power drinks or some such crap from home using your computer..."
Yesterday it was sellling power drinks or some such crap from home using your computer...
A formerly successful businesswoman friend was pimping "Mangosteen" juice @ $35 a bottle to me, last week.
I was torn between buying one to assuage my guilt about her precarious financial position, but I didn't want to encourage her that there was anybody else stupid enough to buy one either.
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:10 pm
Cinco-X, Blackhalo, a few people - like Brian - know when that ended (although I'm not going to say here because people will keep asking).
It was a great ride!
best to all
So are we all going to be invited to your Xmas party?
"nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:07 pm replyIgnore userI know a fair amount of people over 50 and I am really starting to smell panic. Fear that - this is it. Time has run out on them. Schemes and dreams is all I hear to fix it too. The more scared they are - the more stupid the solution. Yesterday it was sellling power drinks or some such crap from home using your computer...
People watch their 301k melt back to 201 is going to really be interesting.
My daughter told me her new gov teacher told them he had retired but his small biz (candy store!) failed and he had to come back to teaching. He barely gives a shit according to her.
"
Its history, no-one gives a sh*t about that. Look at the Fed and Banks.
IMO, this is why there's been almost no backlash from the majority of the peasants. The peasants know - In their hearts - that given the same chance they'd be running the same scams that they nobility is running on them now. It'll take a new generation to get pissed off enough to actually demand a change.
Well, yes, but I paid off the house a year and a half ago,
and I sold 80-85% of my IRA in fall of 2007.
Then you are on the island while most of your peers are trying to find a way to get from the ocean to the beach without ripping the bottom out of their boat.
IMO, this is why there's been almost no backlash from the majority of the peasants. The peasants know - In their hearts - that given the same chance they'd be running the same scams that they nobility is running on them now. It'll take a new generation to get pissed off enough to actually demand a change.
They don't see it as scams. They see it as being "successful."
On investing: I hate to change positions - I've never wanted to be a day trader. I usually ride long positions for years (although not if the story changes) ... and I was thinking about doing that here. One thing I've discovered about myself is I have a harder time buying than selling ... that is why I forced myself to buy at the end of Feb / early March. It just seemed like there was way too much pessimism.
I think investors have started to price in an immaculate recovery with 4+% growth for the next couple of years, and I think that is too optimistic. I'm not super bearish (I don't think we will retest the old lows or anything like that). But investors sure seem bipolar recently.
"Young adults can't find employment, and those over 50 can't either."
A young relative of ours (in his 20s) in a small city in Pa. has been working for Sam's Club for a while now. It's hard, but it's an anchor. He's doing well there, we hear, given what it is.
Well I am sure the under 30 crowd will institute the Logan's Run plan any day now to solve all our problems. We're just past prime and wasting space anyway, right?
Job? Not officially yet. I have a offer in progress but I'm getting enough calls every week that I'm not very worried. But I've got a big IRS refund in progress, too, should get it in 3-4 more weeks.
Zee problem which I have today is that the models and charts and data points used to establish linear relationships with historical norms, with old models, with broken models are pointless. I think CRs charts are great multimedia presentations of data, and I'm in no way knocking CR here, but there is truth in the fact, that the models, charts and data that got us to this point, never provided clear clues as to why the models would break last year. It is my belief, that the models were not re-calibrated and thus the data being provided, has no relationship with past trends.
Which ones? This one is almost over. People lost their lives. They lost limbs and eyes. They lost their money. I wonder if there's any perspective to be learned in that.
"If I find 10,000 ways something won't work, I haven't failed. I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward".
Thomas A. Edison
I'm old school, as in my investments have a track record of many thousands of years, not days or weeks or months, like so many other johnny-come-latelys.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:16 pm
So, it the blue bars reappear we know we are really, really, really ed
I believe it is "when", Liz - "when" ... the gov't pulled forward enough production and demand to temporarily reverse the declines so those pesky recession lines could be "technically" eliminated ... but that , combined with the lack of growth engines, only makes it more probable that the recession starts anew & CR gets to backfill the blue (he should).
I'm glad you got the answer to the question that we both had asked. My only other question is, "what color are the bars for 'depression'... "?
Well I am sure the under 30 crowd will institute the Logan's Run plan any day now to solve all our problems.
I'd wager they are rightly pissed about now. Running up 100K+ in tuition/fee debt to hit a job market that is downright dire. Hopefully some VC gives them the capital to knock off the old guard sooner, rather than later. Or if GOOG busts into some unexpected markets, they can hire good talent.
I'm old school, as in my investments have a track record of many thousands of years, not days or weeks or months, like so many other johnny-come-latelys."
Gosh, I just wrote this, JD:
BEHIND YOU SHUT THE DOOR
These are ancient times,
Distant is the future,
People of the ages
Lost among the roots
Shadows and their names,
Sunken cities, screens,
Unsearchable main frames,
Images unseen
Only slender legends,
A few inscriptions read
By daylight or by summons -
Who were these ancient dead?
Generations summoned
Forgotten by those ones,
Children of our children,
Grandsons and their sons
Until there are no more,
Others take their places,
Time will shut the door
In their inhuman faces
They might find some traces
Of those who came before,
Now avert your faces,
Behind you shut the door
There were very few college grads at all back then. Everybody is expected to go to college now, because EVERYBODY knows that only work requiring a college education is worthwhile. Otherwise, you're just a BLUE COLLAR LOSER!!!!!
JFC..... Chicago news has become all 2016, all the time. Win or lose (and I want them to lose), at least tomorrow this shit will be over, and we can get back to discusssing whether child rapists who make good films should be in jail.
We have a friend who is a co-worker of my wife's. She has put a lot of money into a private day care, and has a private school picked out...already working on those college skills. When she found out I was home schooling our children, and personally I didn't care if they went to college or not...her response was well we always need good unskilled service people. We get a good chuckle out of that one.
sm_landlord (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:35 pm
"Otherwise, you're just a BLUE COLLAR LOSER!!!!! "
What do you want to bet that plumbers will have the last laugh?
What do you want to bet that plumbers will have the last laugh?
Probably yes, but the resentment towards plumbers is what is amazing in Merica. They are considered "unworthy", even by people in their own social class. Which, IS a planned outcome of the nobility's manipulation of how REALmericans view each other.
Blackhalo,
I think the new Fed 'transparent' info released is pretty general...like number of borrowers or type of insitiution borrowing...but I thought I'd check to see how many specifics were on their new 'balance sheet' site...
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:37 pm
We have a friend who is a co-worker of my wife's. She has put a lot of money into a private day care, and has a private school picked out...already working on those college skills. When she found out I was home schooling our children, and personally I didn't care if they went to college or not...her response was well we always need good unskilled service people. We get a good chuckle out of that one.
Glad to hear you're home-schooling. I think a lot more folks should do it, as long as they're reasonably qualified to teach their kids. I have a friend who was having trouble getting his kid into school due to frontage issues with the town, and in the meantime, his wife wasn't working and had a Masters in education. I told him that she ought to home school them and be done with it; they'd probably get a better education at home, so that's what they did. I hope he didn't tell her it was my idea
I thought I'd check to see how many specifics were on their new 'balance sheet' site...
Call me a cynic, but I doubt the Fed is willing to disclose anything of consequence to anyone. Ron Paul is plenty kooky but even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while... I was pleasantly surprised that he was able to keep himself on target for the daily show the other night.
Chicago news has become all 2016, all the time. Win or lose (and I want them to lose), at least tomorrow this shit will be over
If you win you'll be bombarded with Olympic BS for the next 6 years, from the massive spending to all the smug boosters celebrating the win, Vancouver has been hell for anyone opposed to the Olympics this past half decade.
he was good, but it is creepy when libertarians (especially ones from the south) forget to mention that people were property in the first third of the republic's history... kind of an important point to make if you're all about personal liberty
Ron Paul should skip the interviews with Alex Jones...
Yes, and no. Ron is on the cusp of crediblilty and associating with Jones hurts his cause. But particularly as an Austinite, I'm damn glad AJ is out there looking for conspiracy in every government action. The day TPTB shut him up, I worry. I much prefer AJ's rantings to those of Limbaugh.
I call it the Great Malaise because after the 'rush' of the sudden equities crash, and then the rapid and powerful rally, we will find that the economy is goign to be stagnant while it undergoes a sturctural adjustment.
It will take a few years, maybe till 2013-2015, and then a new, and different U.S. economy will emerge.
Until then, we'll see a equities trade in a fairly narrow range, maybe 800-1200 on the s&p, certainly no breakout to the old highs, very unlikely we see the March lows
a realization that equities markets aren't going to go up or down in a secular pattern
Yeah, I consider myself a libertarian, but I wouldn't want to live in a society run by them (not that it could even happen). Libertarians are like fertilizer, best in small amounts - otherwise (as the joke goes)....
Fed is saying that their appeal to prevent disclosures of who got govt. emergency funds will save the system again by preventing bank runs and institutional failures which will hurt 'public confidence'.
The "public" has lots of confidence in the Fed. The Fed is working for our best interests, right? Who else would The FEDERAL Reserve Bank of THE United State of Merica be working FOR? Hmmmmm?
Blackhalo,
Yeah AJ is keeping up with police state stuff but some of the people he interviews on swine flu for example are known to be associated with dubious topics like UFO 'research'...I would guess that some of the info promoted on 'patriot' sites is fear mongering and rabble rousing while they direct the causes of this Crash to Luciferian Death Cults, the Black Pope, and other blind alleys and roads to nowhere...
Yabut, euro-trash libertarians are really anarchists. So, you can't count him. You have to careful when talking politics in Europe and saying you're a libertarians. It's almost as bad as saying you're a Republican or a Fascist (of which there are still a few in Italy)
And the young russian techie who had no idea what trading algorithms were! not to mention the plastic tits on the cash cow. The other woman had a slight accent, german?
"ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:29 pm replyIgnore userdid anyone post this yet? this is actually a pretty big development, not so much because of the magnitude of the change, but because of the direction.
FHA Borrowers May Need Bigger Down Payments in Bill (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
doubt it will pass, of course. but if it does, shouldn't the government also restrict Fannie and Freddie in the same way?
"
I'm calling this congressman tomorrow to ask what I can do to support that bill.
JD & NRA,
This rabble rousing and fear mongering is not about thinking it's about getting people 'emotionally' enraged enough to become irrational so they do something stupid and then more police state are legislated and passed due to the 'emergency' at hand...a lot of the info on patriot or truth sites are exaggerated or not backed by evidence....
No CR has a good balance IMO...pessimism is now realistic...based on the data stream...but who knows what to do? Just watch the 'disaster' show I guess...
Don't you tend to think the people on here are - uh, how shall we say - a bit overly pessimistic?
Absolutely. Except that last year, at this time, not pessimistic enough? There sure is a huge self interest globally for the pessimists to be wrong. Until they are not.
I stopped at the grocery store on the way to work and was tempted
by some Halloween decorations for the office. Every single one of them
was made in China. I didn't buy.
What do you want to bet that plumbers will have the last laugh?
I have friends in the trades - they aren't laughing at all. Without mass-mini-mcmansion production they are fighting among themselves for the leaky sink biz. Okay work when no one else wants it and they can charge $50/hr... not so hot when they are all falling over each other to undercut and get the job. Tough. And it can get tougher - when folks don't have money to even pay that they let the sink drip - or fix it themselves.
In the last big RE bust I knew folks in the trades who didn't work for years on end - just waited it out thinking it would be over any day now. Gee where have I heard that lately?
Is it possible to be overly pessimistic? Sure. And there's something of an echo-chamber effect in here sometimes; when the same meme gets repeated so many times that it starts echoing off the walls and becomes the common (and unexamined) wisdom.
That said, optimism on the grand scale has been tainted by crooks and fools. The sane and honest take refuge in pessimism unless something is proved to be a good sign.
I guess we'll find out. I don't know either. More of a psychology thing really; birds of a feather and all that. It's easy to get mentally trapped in a "concept" though; have to be careful of that. I also couldn't get myself to buy toward the lows, even tho in my gut I knew the insiders would win (at-least short-term). I always assume justice will eventually prevail (which is a mental illness).
So what's the second derivative?
but 746 wasn't an option
Look at SRS go!
Go baby.
I had a glimpse of Government Motors' 2010 line-up. Check it out.
Public transportation is the new black.
Maybe bus sales will offset the decline in cars and trucks...
dirk, ehp and dave
collect your prize!
Rich do you think the market has peaked for the time being and this is the start of a correction, or is it just another head fake to chase money into treasuries for the auctions next week?
Nemo wrote:
Looks like it might actually be positive. That should be worth +200.
so what exactly are Hyundai/Kia and Subaru doing so right? Cuz they are CRUSHING everyone else.
montas ankle wrote:
And for the dawg that labeled the 740k button as "Trend sans C4C"? Not even a Scooby Snak?
JS123:
Don't have the link, but Greenspan article on Bloomberg states that he sees a market top.
Ya think, DiNozzo?
I'd love to dopeslap that guy.
Thanks M-A. Even a blind squirrel like me finds a nut every now and then.
More cliff diving!
It's obvious we need another gubbmint program which puts us further in debt AND mandates the destruction of more capital.
Maybe we should offer a $50K home buyer credit. However to qualify for the credit one would have to verifiably destroy $60K in existing housing capital.
If we average Aug+Sep what do we get ?
We should do the same for Aug+Sep+Oct
and later Aug+Sep+Oct+Nov
will we find that all that took place is that demand was polled forward ?
Reading over Bill Gross's comments from Bloomberg I realized that he is the CEO of the bond vigilantes but is completely at the mercy of government policy. The friction between policy makers and their need to be reelected and the fiscal responsibility necessary to get government debt under control is tremendous. The bond market needs to believe that the debt is repayable but they also are dependent on the bailouts, tough dichotomy.
I imagine it to be the San Andreas fault of our financial system. The friction will build until a major slip happens. Ironic the San Andreas fault is between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate and in California.
A little update: it's now 7 pigs and counting.
homedad43 wrote:
Technical note. Dopeslap is to the forehead. Gibbs slaps "upside the back of the head."
Some nice little final minute action going on here. Geez...
Where is PPT? This feels like last year again.
elmo smacking down kermit
Not bad - in a earlier thred I said 725-740
Did Hal fry a circuit, or is he just messing with us...
Uhm.. can we start talking about "circuit breaker" again?
Pigged...
I was wondering about earlier research on derivatives & credit risk...
Research in 1995:
'Pricing derivatives securities for credit risk...two types of credit risks are considered...the asset underlying the derivative security may default...the writer of the derivative security may default...'
JSTOR: The Journal of Finance, Vol. 50, No. 1 (Mar., 1995), pp. 53-85
Gosh I thought there would be a pull up..nope she is a red letter day
EDIT: hosed by the new layout!
whoa 200 down...
cant get the kermit tow up from the depths when the UE rate largemouth bass lurks by the surface.
And there the dow goes...wow...didn't think elmo had it in him.
"The bond market needs to believe that the debt is repayable"
They have every intention of nominally repaying the debt.
Watch interest rates in Japan closely.
"Did Hal fry a circuit, or is he just messing with us... "
He is busy setting up your next buy-op. Now leave him alone, he's busy.
Ten or twelve more days like this and the market overpressure danger will have been decanted. I don't want an implosion so I view today's market action as good, rational and prudent.
ung eats up all my short gains.
october. gotta love october.
The long awaited Wile E. Coyote moment? A meaningful slide here would make sense. Unlikely they can levitate the markets for another quarter with treasury purchases running out. Besides, bankers will get their Q3 bonuses based on the peak -- Looting complete? Now they can roll those freshly "earned" dollars into puts, while the real economy burns.
Timberrrrr!
It'll be better tomorrow. Tonight, over drinks, talking about their fine new German automotive iron, confidence builds, 5th appendage swells...
Things are "looking up". Time to buy some stocks boys.
If that crop report (UE rate) tomorrow isnt what we think it is......glod help us!
Get out there and sell, sell, sell!
Dow is racing for 9499...don't think it will make it..
Lest you had any doubts:
GM, Toyota Target U.S. Sales Gains After Post-‘Clunkers’ Slump - Bloomberg.com
Buy the dip! Cost dollar average guys..
"If we all join hands and go buy a new SUV, everything will be all right," - Bob McTeer, Dallas Fed governor
"What we dearly want is for Americans to spend like Americans – to do the patriotic thing and go out and spend," - Bill McDonough, head of the New York Fed, October '01.
Why can't they see that too much debt IS the problem?
Wooo Hoooo!!
Still, very impressive day...I was so sure there would be a stick save...maybe there was...
Lest you had any doubts:
GM, Toyota Target U.S. Sales Gains After Post-‘Clunkers’ Slump - Bloomberg.com
Sorry, I got excited at a rational market.
Not happy about the fact its down per se., just happy its acting rational/realistic.
Buy the dip! Buy the dip!
Angry Saver wrote:
Because these are REALmericans. Not a bunch of pessimistic nay-sayers who hate Merica !
yuan wrote:
I will. The dip will carry a 6 handle on the Dow and 5 on the S&P.
Hey Ken-
The duplicate was my fault (bad connection) but I'm unable to delete.
I think this is a real correction, first phase of dollar weakness.
My view all along has been that once dollar weakness takes hold, it would not be good for either stocks or bonds. Only real assets.
Today, of course, stocks way down, bonds way up.
I'm not moving money from short stocks to bonds just yet. But at some point, I will.
*Buy the dip! Buy the dip! *
what is the best dip to buy with potato chips?
I usually grab some sour cream and onion soup mix..
Will Nikkei keep up with the (Dow) Jones? Stay tuned tonight.
Rob Dawg wrote:
me too - about effing time
OK, the market's closed. Time for them to release the news that GS has been trading on today.
UNG – United States Natural Gas ETF – Shares of the natural gas exchange-traded fund are currently off by more than 1% to $11.80. One investor has picked up some serious downside protection on the fund today by purchasing a large chunk of put options in the April 2010 contract. We believe the trader is likely holding a long stock position in the UNG. It appears the trader purchased 31,000 puts at the April 9.0 strike for a premium of 75 cents per contract. The net cost of the put options amounts to $2,325,000. Shares of UNG would need to decline 30% from the current price before downside protection kicks in beneath the breakeven point at $8.25. Perhaps the put buyer expects the fund to reach a new 52-week low by expiration in April. The current 52-week low of $8.94 was attained on September 3, 2009. We note that it is always possible the trader is essentially shorting the stock and placing a large bearish bet on the ETF in order to profit from downward movement in the share price.
I don't know. There was a fair bit of off news today, and we're only down 2% or so. If it was rational the market would have been the headline story tonight.
An awful lot of expectations needed to be rewritten today.
"I'm not moving money from short stocks to bonds just yet. But at some point, I will. "
My solace today is that I loaded up on TIPS a few months ago.
Asun wrote:
Hmm, I'd think we'd need to see some action on CIT, BoA or GE capital or the like first.
But I'm sure they are "well capitalized."
GE Capital Corp Sells $3.5B FDIC-Backed Bonds - WSJ.com
BTW - talked to a couple guys in non-auto mfg business & they just closed the book on Sep 09. Worst month yet - absolutely dismal.
Somehow I think GS still comes out ahead today. They downgraded a whole bunch of companies, including MSFT.
Come on, this is just one down day. Opportunities abound. Never been a BETTER time to buy stocks.
Yes, Friday looks to be interesting folks...what will the market magician pull out of his hat. Man just didn't see the 200 drop on the Dow coming, sure 120-140 points...but not the whole 200.
Asun wrote:
As longs as there are bets the house wins. Only when the gamblers stay away or keep their money in their pockets can the house lose. But if the marks think they are marks they do just that...
A significant number of indicators are either not showing improvement or are headed back down. The seasonal declines will reinforce the growing negative perceptions.
Bernanke should have avoided the 'mission accomplished' victory lap; the world is not all banks and bankers and he cannot pave everybody's way out of reality even if he owns the printing press.
How is our friend VIX doing?
I meant moving from short stocks to short bonds.
The way to play short bonds, when the time is right, is TBT.
The time is not right. I'll let you know when I make the move. It could be months.
This stock correction may be in volatile legs. While stocks are correcting, money could flee into bonds temporarily.
But then it will flee bonds in terror.
dryfly wrote:
This is my impression also, although it's all anecdotal. This past summer gave back quite a bit to people I know who are involved in the manufacturing (auto and non-auto) sectors. I hope their smiles are all as broad when I see them around Christmas as they were when I saw them all camping.
Well they are now-
dryfly wrote:
Amen brother. What concerns me is if rational returns too quickly. Say some big player wakes up one bleary hung over morning and looks next to him and decides to chew off his arm rather than risk disturbing the market he's married we could see a return to traditional mid recession P/E ratios.
As the old joke goes; "Don' aks mi Señor. I am only the bridesmaid."
" How is our friend VIX doing?"
Up over 10% today
He can pave everybody's way out of reality with paper.
For a year, I've seen nothing that indicates Bernanke fears dollar devaluation in the least. It's his best friend. Soon, his only friend.
Retail Gasoline Deliveries just released for July 2009.
Again way below 1983 levels, the earliest recorded year for this information!
Economy is still heading strongly downward. Second derivative may be positive, but we arn't going sideways.
In 2006 July deliveries were 61.5 million gallons/day
In 2009, July delieries were 49.5 million gallons/day
Thats almost a 20% drop in gasoline usage for retail (cars, trucks).
Data Here.
Natural Gas and Petroleum Navigator Error Page
If I get pigged, please copy over.
The decline in trash stocks was something else today, some of the ones I watch because they are mortgage-related:
RDN -14.5%
MTG -10.7%
ABK -10.1%
MBI -10.7%
These are all stocks that IMHO are trading with market caps well above fundamental value. All hit highs recently that were 10X their lows. All poster children for the excess liquidity in the market.
I am wondering if the slowdown in the UST POMOs and the MBS POMOs are starting to have an effect on the excess liquidity?
Excess liquidity to a market is like gasoline to a fire - you need a constant supply to keep the fire stoked.
If it was a rational market, it wouldn't be up ~50% since Mar.
I wonder how many home downpayments vanish with each 1% drop in the stock market?
97 users and 613 guests?
I guess it was a market crash today!
And hopefully that will be beginning of some sanity.
noob goldberg wrote:
Is this a reliable gloom index?
Cinco-X wrote:
Heh. We could turn this into a meme.
'If it was a rational market...'
some investor guy wrote:
per investor?
"He can pave everybody's way out of reality with paper.
For a year, I've seen nothing that indicates Bernanke fears dollar devaluation in the least. It's his best friend. Soon, his only friend. "
rich, for me this is the great unknown going forward - to what extent will Bernanke continue his foolish quest against deflation, and continue to kill the dollar?
Will he step up even more QE, or will he throw in the towel?
thoughts?
Maybe this plunge is being caused by people trying to cover their long positions?
Oh, wait...
Lest we forget. It was merely a few months ago that these down days were the norm. Plenty of grumbles when we didn't hit circuit breaker after being teased again and again.
From Fox News via Yahooooo!
Recovery Faces Uphill Battle
In other news Custer see's difficulty at Little Bighorn.
dryfly wrote:
HA!!!
noob goldberg wrote:
Nemo's link to the Yahoo CIT board proved to me that there are an ASTOUNDING number of irrational players yet to be wiped out. FFS Cramer is still on the air, after the drubbing he took on the Daily Show, showing what a hack he is. All those sheep lining up to be fleeced.
Laugh Out Loud... the chart shows the recession ended. "Mission Accomplished"...
from manipulated data.
666 used to be the magic number. That said, I'd suggest something like:
%change in S&P + %change in oil - % change in long term treasuries
Of course, if I really knew anything,I'd be rich
William H. Gross == George Armstrong Custer.
Next week: quiet revision of the numbers. downward.
"the chart shows the recession ended."
Who was it that said: "...and now the depression begins."
"BTW - talked to a couple guys in non-auto mfg business & they just closed the book on Sep 09. Worst month yet - absolutely dismal."
I'm seeing (in architecture and construction) that the firms that held up through the worst of last winter and this summer are now finally laying off people and thinking that this winter might be worse than last. It is either the dark before the dawn or it is downward leg #2.
BURN wrote:
UE?
Rob Dawg wrote:
So who get's to play the roles of Sitting Bull & Crazy Horse?
Cinco-X wrote:
Is this number's history available? It would be interesting to see it plotted against something. Just for fun.
SP500 at 500, Dawg? wooohoooo - I would be loading up if we got there... I've been waiting all summer to increase my stocks allocation ... currently 30% stocks, 40% bonds, 30% cash.... heading to 60% stocks, 35% bonds, 5% cash...
I not rooting for a "recovery" at all, at least not in the same sense that the CNBC propagandists are. I never, ever, ever, want to see such financial foolishness again.
Quite frankly, I'm tired of competing with stupidity.
All the Fed's excess liquidity and leverage does is allow the financial sector to lay claim to all future inflation and earnings. Is it any wonder we don't produce anything anymore? The wealth has already been claimed.
Uh mah gahd, our financial conventional wisdom has been created by utter fools :
FT.com / Markets - Crisis creates new sophistication in risk
I mean, you look at correlations and you leave out the ginormous causation (credit bubble) and somehow you are shocked, shocked that your correlations didnt hold up.
Idiots.
car sales
Wally says,
"I'm seeing (in architecture and construction) that the firms that held up through the worst of last winter and this summer are now finally laying off people and thinking that this winter might be worse than last. It is either the dark before the dawn or it is downward leg #2."
Regarding architecture and construction, the problem is TMOE: Too Much Of Everything is already built.
In all fairness to Custer, he was given erroneous information about the second derivative of the Sioux.
It's still updating
BFF poll - given Sheila has teased us the past few weeks on BFF activity, I am going lower this week, until she has the $45 billion in the door.
GD9000,
There is an axiom of good financial modelers. In a big crisis, all correlations go to 1, 0 or -1.
Turning off the correlations in your risk model for a period or two is an interesting stress test.
"market caps well above fundamental value"
seeing as how that # is zero, I would certainly hope so
That was in the HaloScan days; I doubt it was recorded because it was always in flux-
Edit: I stand corrected- Comment by noob goldberg from thread 'Light Vehicle Sales 9.2 Million (SAAR) in September'
With the proposed EPA CO2 rules now being released, I think manufacturers will be thinking twice about locating or expanding in the U.S. First, electricity cost and fuel costs will be going up significantly, and, second, if they modify their facilities in any material way, they have to install the best technology to reduce CO2 emissions. Mexico, China and India have to be applauding this development.
Absolutely fascinating. Thanks.
Looks like they're going to have to destroy the country in order to save it-
Sans manufacturing, I envision our country as this quaint pastoral place, with a few hundred million handguns @ the ready.
'On the Credit Risk of OTC Derivatives', 1995 Fed paper
SSRN-On The Credit Risk of OTC Derivative Users by Vijay Bhasin
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/road-to-recovery-real-large.gif
Should have inflation adjustments-
"with a few hundred million handguns"
and body armor check out PSP listed in Canada - top line growth (disclosure, none; save that I was told business is brisk)
You say that like it's a bad thing-
NOTaREALmerican - I take it you were not here when everything was coming apart at the seams....lots and lots of guests even @ say 2am
(ah, those were the days FAZ at a couple hundred, looking for cockroaches, and lather rinse repeat theme music was deafing)
"Mexico, China and India have to be applauding this development. "
If Mexico could figure out a way to put in a reliable, beefy electrical grid, they could probably get a lot of industry. But they never seems to be able to make the infrastructure investments to keep up.
I remember when big electricity users were decamping from SoCal to Oregon. That lasted awhile, until it didn't.
Hoocoodanode.
Actually FAZ was late to that game. The symbol dujour was SKF and SRS.
Barley wrote:
No, there was work to be done at my Zombie then. A bit on the slow side lately (last 12 months).
You work at a bank? Were you shredding papers?
Ur Mike correct SRS generated some good coin for some
Cinco-X wrote:
Naaa. I'm just an IT minion. We're just doing the mechanics of the lending. We, of course, don't make policy (and like all good minions - I'd sell plutonium fertilizer if I thought it wouldn't hurt me personally and "they" paid me to do it).
Yesterday DJIA 266,994,498 volume.
Today Dow component BAC 249,191,733.
This ain't a market, it is a casino.
Mike in Long Island wrote:
I wonder how far or fast the market would have to fall for another short ban?
Dawg - That is new to you?
Arizonans can now carry their weaponry into happy hour, joy joy.
I wonder how far or fast the market would have to fall for another short ban?
Thats up to JPM and GS.
Barley wrote:
Were they not the ones doing the shorting? I SURE would like to see those guys on the wrong end of the bet for once. But since they pull the levers that does not seem too likely.
Light vehicle
Sales off in September.
Bank Friday ahead.
"If Mexico could figure out a way to put in a reliable, beefy electrical grid, they could probably get a lot of industry. But they never seems to be able to make the infrastructure investments to keep up.
I remember when big electricity users were decamping from SoCal to Oregon. That lasted awhile, until it didn't. "
Bet you all the refiners and power generators just eliminated all capex out of their budgets for the next few years - while I am sure that the rules will be litigated (for leaving out the small producers), no way would either business run the risk of having to incur the costs of CO2 mitigation.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Throw back a few, go outside and have a few smokes, reload, and go back in. Is this a great country, or what?
Ask Congress.
Well, enough fun for one day. After entertaining a large group of visitors from France, I feel the urge to head home, butter a baguette and drink some wine. L8R all.
market-look for bounce around 1018-20....1039 looks like resistance......
car sales numbers for Sept were still helped out by c4c...they had a couple days to make deals in beginning of mos. and get them into pipeline..plus many people came in late and walked out with dealer incentive to match...
this month will be more telling....
If juvenal delinquent is lurking or logged on, how far into the ten days to meltdown you predicted are we?
Were they not the ones doing the shorting?
Yes until they became the pray - suddenly it got too close to home and Hanky had to help.
Govt of Argentina learns that meddling in markets has consequences...
Argentina Ends Corn, Wheat Export Ban as Crops Shrink (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
Been that way in FL for a long time; concealed too. Cuts down on the smart@$$es so you can get down to some serious drinkin'
Cut out the middle man and ask GS-
I just talked to a friend. He is going all in. This is it. Small biz is toast. House is over maxed and sliding down foreclosure lane. Take a loan against his last asset and is going into " House Wholesaleing" What ever that is. Because now is the time to make money in real estate selling to investors. What can you say? It is all he has to hold on to. The dream of the big score.
nova wrote:
Sounds like a REALmerican too me.
Govt of Argentina learns that meddling in markets has consequences...
Like said: Ocean currents, fish, reduced production.
Go AG chemicals go!!
What is Wholesaling?
It is simply finding a bargain property and passing it on to a bargain hunter. That bargain hunter will be an investor who will either purchase the property to resell it or purchase it to hold it for rental income. Your profit as a wholesaler should be between $5000 and $15,000 on each house. In some cases it will be higher than $15,000 and on some deals your profit may be a little lower than $5,000.
Wholesaling – A Strategy for Real Estate Investors | Real Estate Investing Articles
We are in day 4, according to my crystal ball*.
So - wholesaling is flipping by a new name? What could go wrong?
nova,
maybe your friend should hang out at costco for a little bit to see how wholesailing works...
Barley wrote:
Makes me wonder how Timmy would behave. Couple of books out now saying that Hanky was pretty much running the Gov for the last half of 2008. Given that O' is pretty much carrying on, his actions are pretty much our policy now.
Has Conjure weighed in on this matter? Just curious-
Why do I have this sneaking suspicion that a lot of people are soon to be reacquainted with that out of date concept known as 'honest work'...
Would it involve getting your whole assailed?
Basel Too,
Thanks. I knew it had to be something lame. He has taken "courses" and has a "mentor." Shit. I think the panic of getting old and the knowledge that it has to be soon or else is not helping.
Basel Too wrote:
It is simply finding a bargain property and passing it on to a mark. That mark will be an “investor” who will either purchase the property to resell it or purchase it to hold it for rental income. Your profit as a scam-artist should be between $5000 and $15,000 on each house. In some cases it will be higher than $15,000 and on some deals your profit may be a little lower than $5,000.
Post bubble Econ 101 text-book.
nova,
He has a picture-perfect business plan, circa 2003.
Based on:
Comment by nova from thread 'Light Vehicle Sales 9.2 Million (SAAR) in September'
It looks like it has already happened. He just doesn't know it yet
Cinco-X wrote:
I thought MP had stated that gov intervention rendered Conjure somewhat moot. i.e. it is up to Ben how much QE he uses to prop up markets. Given the dollar rally today, there is not much stopping him.
How come CR is leaving out the blue at the end of the charts? He thinks the recession is over?
Falling Tax Revenues Slam States - WSJ.com
Don't worry, recession is over and growth is always just around the corner.
Must've missed that; gotta work and sleep some time
crude has rallied 14% against nat gas in the past 2.5 trading days. yikes.
I know a fair amount of people over 50 and I am really starting to smell panic. Fear that - this is it. Time has run out on them. Schemes and dreams is all I hear to fix it too. The more scared they are - the more stupid the solution. Yesterday it was sellling power drinks or some such crap from home using your computer...
People watch their 301k melt back to 201 is going to really be interesting.
My daughter told me her new gov teacher told them he had retired but his small biz (candy store!) failed and he had to come back to teaching. He barely gives a shit according to her.
CR went long in the market at the end of March; it is over for him
October 1 , 2009 layoffs
Whitaker Center in Harrisburg - 6
Special Metals in Huntington - 17
Saint - Gorbain Ceramics - 26
Denso Car Part Maker ( International ) - 730
Ebay Germany - 400
Tredyffrin Township - 11
Great Dane Trailers - Temporary Shut down - 67 Layoffs
German State Bank Plans - 2,500 over next 4 years
City of Cincinnati 2010 Budget - Layoffs Likely
Sullivan County - Possible Layoffs
City of Dallas - Last Day for Hundreds of Employees
Lafarge Company - 35 Temp Layoffs
City of Findlay - 34 and Tax Increase?
Idaho Public Television - 2
UC Riverside - Furlough Days vs Layoffs
Transmission Games - 20+?
Ash Grove Cement Company - Temp Layoffs Coming?
The Orchard - 20% of Staff
Chrysler Financial - 360
Arkansas ACORN - 4
Daily Job Cuts - Layoff News , Job Layoffs 2009 , Bankruptcy, Store closings and other Business Economy News
"I just talked to a friend. He is going all in. This is it. Small biz is toast. House is over maxed and sliding down foreclosure lane. Take a loan against his last asset and is going into " House Wholesaleing" What ever that is. Because now is the time to make money in real estate selling to investors. What can you say? It is all he has to hold on to. The dream of the big score."
Is that like Amway and Tupperware?
I am less brave than juvie.
I merely say October. Good start.
Lawyerliz, yes, I've argued the "technical" recession ended in July ... so I've started leaving the blue off the graphs. There is a difference between the technical recession, and anything that looks like real growth.
best to all
lawyerliz wrote:
I think so. He said he went long in March largely on sentiment, I think. I hope he took some profits...
"I know a far amount of people over 50 and I am really starting to smell panic. Fear that - this is it. Time has run out on them. Schemes and dreams is all I hear to fix it too. The more scared they are - the more stupid the solution. Yesterday it was sellling power drinks or some such crap from home using your computer..."
This is very depressing. And familiar.
Cinco-X, Blackhalo, a few people - like Brian - know when that ended (although I'm not going to say here because people will keep asking).
It was a great ride!
best to all
A formerly successful businesswoman friend was pimping "Mangosteen" juice @ $35 a bottle to me, last week.
I was torn between buying one to assuage my guilt about her precarious financial position, but I didn't want to encourage her that there was anybody else stupid enough to buy one either.
No Sale.
I'm over 50 and so far I'm living the same as usual.
Many I've talked to said they just planned to keep working forever.
What happens with Iran in the next few months is likely to be directly correlated with the global economic situation.
So are we all going to be invited to your Xmas party?
ll,
Did you bet it all on a house and a 401k?
Time is on my side, yes it is.
anyone know a good site to track all the busted secondaries this year? need to settle an argument.
i googled for it but no luck.
thanks
"Many I've talked to said they just planned to keep working forever."
That too is an illusion.
Well, yes, but I paid off the house a year and a half ago,
and I sold 80-85% of my IRA in fall of 2007.
Stilll sitting on the sidelines, don't have CR's nerve.
@Dirk van Dijk
Re: Quigley and Boy Scouts
Yes, we're talking about the same Quigley. His wife, Katherine, was a den mother for many years.
Anyway, Martin is an interesting character. He was an OSS agent during World War II.
mike in long island
thanks I needed that....bad spelling day...
"nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:07 pm replyIgnore userI know a fair amount of people over 50 and I am really starting to smell panic. Fear that - this is it. Time has run out on them. Schemes and dreams is all I hear to fix it too. The more scared they are - the more stupid the solution. Yesterday it was sellling power drinks or some such crap from home using your computer...
People watch their 301k melt back to 201 is going to really be interesting.
My daughter told me her new gov teacher told them he had retired but his small biz (candy store!) failed and he had to come back to teaching. He barely gives a shit according to her.
"
Its history, no-one gives a sh*t about that. Look at the Fed and Banks.
I'm over 50 and so far I'm living the same as usual.
I gutted most of my "life" from 2004 to 2006.
Buying a new car, though, in a few weeks.
Nova wrote:
Go long Amway and other MLMs? Desperation breeds bad behavior.
So, it the blue bars reappear we know we are really,
ed
really, really
nova wrote:
IMO, this is why there's been almost no backlash from the majority of the peasants. The peasants know - In their hearts - that given the same chance they'd be running the same scams that they nobility is running on them now. It'll take a new generation to get pissed off enough to actually demand a change.
Well, yes, but I paid off the house a year and a half ago,
and I sold 80-85% of my IRA in fall of 2007.
Then you are on the island while most of your peers are trying to find a way to get from the ocean to the beach without ripping the bottom out of their boat.
Young adults can't find employment, and those over 50 can't either.
The ones in the middle are merely muddling through...
"pavel.chichikov wrote:
Schemes and dreams is all I hear to fix it too. "
I didn't.
Broward, Got a job!?
Is that like Amway and Tupperware?
No, it's more likely to make you lose money. Lots of it.
IMO, this is why there's been almost no backlash from the majority of the peasants. The peasants know - In their hearts - that given the same chance they'd be running the same scams that they nobility is running on them now. It'll take a new generation to get pissed off enough to actually demand a change.
They don't see it as scams. They see it as being "successful."
The party is here. Free beer tomorrow.
On investing: I hate to change positions - I've never wanted to be a day trader. I usually ride long positions for years (although not if the story changes) ... and I was thinking about doing that here. One thing I've discovered about myself is I have a harder time buying than selling ... that is why I forced myself to buy at the end of Feb / early March. It just seemed like there was way too much pessimism.
I think investors have started to price in an immaculate recovery with 4+% growth for the next couple of years, and I think that is too optimistic. I'm not super bearish (I don't think we will retest the old lows or anything like that). But investors sure seem bipolar recently.
best wishes
House Wholesaling:
The Hassle Of Distressed Homes
"Young adults can't find employment, and those over 50 can't either."
A young relative of ours (in his 20s) in a small city in Pa. has been working for Sam's Club for a while now. It's hard, but it's an anchor. He's doing well there, we hear, given what it is.
Well I am sure the under 30 crowd will institute the Logan's Run plan any day now to solve all our problems. We're just past prime and wasting space anyway, right?
I'm working on getting my MPGA Card, so I go on the tour.
Miniature golf was huge in the 1930's...
Job? Not officially yet. I have a offer in progress but I'm getting enough calls every week that I'm not very worried. But I've got a big IRS refund in progress, too, should get it in 3-4 more weeks.
Damn! Can't make it; I'm playing tomorrow-
CalculatedRisk wrote:
Investors or gamblers?
I'm working on getting my MPGA Card, so I go on the tour.
Miniature golf was huge in the 1930's...
You wild eyed dreamer! You go green!
I'd consider myself a Decade Trader...
Hey is this real..did Citi release results early...came across a news ticker...I believe it was slated for 10-15
Citigroup Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $4.3 Billion, $0.49 Diluted EPS
October 1, 2009
Citigroup Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $4.3 Billion, $0.49 Diluted EPS - FierceFinance
Ya think DiNozzo?
Blew juice out the nose. Good thing I was sitting back from the keyboard.
Zee problem which I have today is that the models and charts and data points used to establish linear relationships with historical norms, with old models, with broken models are pointless. I think CRs charts are great multimedia presentations of data, and I'm in no way knocking CR here, but there is truth in the fact, that the models, charts and data that got us to this point, never provided clear clues as to why the models would break last year. It is my belief, that the models were not re-calibrated and thus the data being provided, has no relationship with past trends.
The end
I've never seen a chart or graph that could plot fear.
On the Tickerspy indexes, today's top index was...
One of the only two that were green....
..wait for it...
*BOOZE
"I'd consider myself a Decade Trader..."
Which ones? This one is almost over. People lost their lives. They lost limbs and eyes. They lost their money. I wonder if there's any perspective to be learned in that.
cclt. from 7/17/09
Citigroup Reports Second Quarter Net Income of $4.3 Billion, $0.49 Diluted EPS
"I've never seen a chart or graph that could plot fear."
Polygraphers might disagree.
If wishes could catch fishes I'd commission a rapist-bear-magoo thing from the artist that did the ass-blast-bull-madoff thing.
No.
OT: For those of you with computer chops and no current job, here's a nice resource. Bone up on it, and claim you've been an independent developer.
Fed is trying to be more transparent:
FRB: Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet
But see? You just learned something.
"If I find 10,000 ways something won't work, I haven't failed. I am not discouraged, because every wrong attempt discarded is another step forward".
Thomas A. Edison
" I wonder if there's any perspective to be learned in that.
No"
Well, the answer was always going to be subjective..
Pavel,
I'm old school, as in my investments have a track record of many thousands of years, not days or weeks or months, like so many other johnny-come-latelys.
I believe it is "when", Liz - "when" ... the gov't pulled forward enough production and demand to temporarily reverse the declines so those pesky recession lines could be "technically" eliminated ... but that , combined with the lack of growth engines, only makes it more probable that the recession starts anew & CR gets to backfill the blue (he should).
I'm glad you got the answer to the question that we both had asked. My only other question is, "what color are the bars for 'depression'... "?
Vonbek777 wrote:
I'd wager they are rightly pissed about now. Running up 100K+ in tuition/fee debt to hit a job market that is downright dire. Hopefully some VC gives them the capital to knock off the old guard sooner, rather than later. Or if GOOG busts into some unexpected markets, they can hire good talent.
thanks basel...it had that 10-1 date it on top and threw me for a loop...
did anyone post this yet? this is actually a pretty big development, not so much because of the magnitude of the change, but because of the direction.
FHA Borrowers May Need Bigger Down Payments in Bill (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
doubt it will pass, of course. but if it does, shouldn't the government also restrict Fannie and Freddie in the same way?
How many recently minted college grads in 1932, were a hundred thou in the hole?
I have to say, I'm surprised that used car prices have already reverted to pre-C4C levels. I thought it would take a few months.
"Pavel,
I'm old school, as in my investments have a track record of many thousands of years, not days or weeks or months, like so many other johnny-come-latelys."
Gosh, I just wrote this, JD:
BEHIND YOU SHUT THE DOOR
These are ancient times,
Distant is the future,
People of the ages
Lost among the roots
Shadows and their names,
Sunken cities, screens,
Unsearchable main frames,
Images unseen
Only slender legends,
A few inscriptions read
By daylight or by summons -
Who were these ancient dead?
Generations summoned
Forgotten by those ones,
Children of our children,
Grandsons and their sons
Until there are no more,
Others take their places,
Time will shut the door
In their inhuman faces
They might find some traces
Of those who came before,
Now avert your faces,
Behind you shut the door
Pavel
October 1, 2009
What makes college grads so special?
i think that was the intent. lot of stupid daytraders.
edit: wasn't implying that you were one
merchants of fear wrote:
Ponzis do not work so well when outsiders can look at the books...
dont you believe it wrote:
Being 100K in the hole?
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
There were very few college grads at all back then. Everybody is expected to go to college now, because EVERYBODY knows that only work requiring a college education is worthwhile. Otherwise, you're just a BLUE COLLAR LOSER!!!!!
"Otherwise, you're just a BLUE COLLAR LOSER!!!!! "
What do you want to bet that plumbers will have the last laugh?
And for a little Canuck content
City of Vancouver - Layoffs aplenty to plug $60.5MM hole
JFC..... Chicago news has become all 2016, all the time. Win or lose (and I want them to lose), at least tomorrow this shit will be over, and we can get back to discusssing whether child rapists who make good films should be in jail.
Pavel,
Nice synchronicity...
Those that don't know the past, get passed by.
If u don't take your profits...
they will be taken for you
soon the bipolar market will settle
and the the Great Malaise will take hold
We have a friend who is a co-worker of my wife's. She has put a lot of money into a private day care, and has a private school picked out...already working on those college skills. When she found out I was home schooling our children, and personally I didn't care if they went to college or not...her response was well we always need good unskilled service people. We get a good chuckle out of that one.
I'm betting he was snarking-
sm_landlord wrote:
Probably yes, but the resentment towards plumbers is what is amazing in Merica. They are considered "unworthy", even by people in their own social class. Which, IS a planned outcome of the nobility's manipulation of how REALmericans view each other.
Blackhalo,
I think the new Fed 'transparent' info released is pretty general...like number of borrowers or type of insitiution borrowing...but I thought I'd check to see how many specifics were on their new 'balance sheet' site...
I think Polanski should be extradited, spend a week or a month in jail, and
then be deported. and that's the end of that.
He hasn't done it again in 30 years, I assume.
montas ankle wrote:
What do you mean?
I think Polanski should be extradited, spend a week or a month in jail, and
then be deported. and that's the end of that.
If the first part of his name was "Father", instead of Roman, no one would even be having these discussions.
What's the difference between college preppies from 1945 and today?
Back then you went to college to git out of the trailer park.
Today you git out of college to be able to buy a trailer.
Glad to hear you're home-schooling. I think a lot more folks should do it, as long as they're reasonably qualified to teach their kids. I have a friend who was having trouble getting his kid into school due to frontage issues with the town, and in the meantime, his wife wasn't working and had a Masters in education. I told him that she ought to home school them and be done with it; they'd probably get a better education at home, so that's what they did. I hope he didn't tell her it was my idea
Oooooooo.
Pavel will get you for that.
You've reminded me of an old friend, long since gone, who was once a German fighter pilot, disfigured by an engine fire.
He owned a little bar and, just inside the front door, was a full-figure portrait of him in uniform during better days, his youth.
He commented to me one evening that people "closed the door" on him after his disfigurement.
merchants of fear wrote:
Call me a cynic, but I doubt the Fed is willing to disclose anything of consequence to anyone. Ron Paul is plenty kooky but even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while... I was pleasantly surprised that he was able to keep himself on target for the daily show the other night.
Ron Paul should skip the interviews with Alex Jones...
If you win you'll be bombarded with Olympic BS for the next 6 years, from the massive spending to all the smug boosters celebrating the win, Vancouver has been hell for anyone opposed to the Olympics this past half decade.
he was good, but it is creepy when libertarians (especially ones from the south) forget to mention that people were property in the first third of the republic's history... kind of an important point to make if you're all about personal liberty
Just a shout out to the person who linked the Julie Driscoll video. Super.
merchants of fear wrote:
Yes, and no. Ron is on the cusp of crediblilty and associating with Jones hurts his cause. But particularly as an Austinite, I'm damn glad AJ is out there looking for conspiracy in every government action. The day TPTB shut him up, I worry. I much prefer AJ's rantings to those of Limbaugh.
How many stocks from just 50 years ago on the NYSE are viable today?
I call it the Great Malaise because after the 'rush' of the sudden equities crash, and then the rapid and powerful rally, we will find that the economy is goign to be stagnant while it undergoes a sturctural adjustment.
It will take a few years, maybe till 2013-2015, and then a new, and different U.S. economy will emerge.
Until then, we'll see a equities trade in a fairly narrow range, maybe 800-1200 on the s&p, certainly no breakout to the old highs, very unlikely we see the March lows
a realization that equities markets aren't going to go up or down in a secular pattern
just flat
just boring
the Great Malaise
HollywoodHack wrote:
Yeah, I consider myself a libertarian, but I wouldn't want to live in a society run by them (not that it could even happen). Libertarians are like fertilizer, best in small amounts - otherwise (as the joke goes)....
Fed is saying that their appeal to prevent disclosures of who got govt. emergency funds will save the system again by preventing bank runs and institutional failures which will hurt 'public confidence'.
Phew.. for a minute I thought things were going to be bad.
~splat
What about public confidence in the Fed?
schumer had no problems spilling the beans with IndyMac, but i guess Jamie and Lloyd are a little less forgiving...
OT
Cash Cow - High-Frequency Trading
Samantha Bee wants to tell her small investor friends about high-frequency trading before regulators outlaw it.
The Daily Show with Jon Stewart Official Website | Current Events & Pop Culture, Comedy & Fake News
Pretty funny, I thought!
merchants of fear wrote:
The "public" has lots of confidence in the Fed. The Fed is working for our best interests, right? Who else would The FEDERAL Reserve Bank of THE United State of Merica be working FOR? Hmmmmm?
Just loved the befuddled boomer with a dial-up connection, she was trying to get to do high-frequency trading....
Roman Polanski is a Libertarian!
Blackhalo,
Yeah AJ is keeping up with police state stuff but some of the people he interviews on swine flu for example are known to be associated with dubious topics like UFO 'research'...I would guess that some of the info promoted on 'patriot' sites is fear mongering and rabble rousing while they direct the causes of this Crash to Luciferian Death Cults, the Black Pope, and other blind alleys and roads to nowhere...
broward wrote:
Yabut, euro-trash libertarians are really anarchists. So, you can't count him. You have to careful when talking politics in Europe and saying you're a libertarians. It's almost as bad as saying you're a Republican or a Fascist (of which there are still a few in Italy)
Great Malaise is akin to the equities market in the years of the late 70s, when things just slid around from side to side.
Very nice description.
And the young russian techie who had no idea what trading algorithms were! not to mention the plastic tits on the cash cow. The other woman had a slight accent, german?
NOTaREALmerican,
Plus the FED has a dot gov site...
merchants of fear wrote:
You can lead the teaming-masses to knowledge, but you can't make them think.
merchants of fear wrote:
I never realized that. Case closed. Thanks for calling!
Why go to the effort to think for yourself, when Rush will do it for you?
hee hee. Touche' NARA
!!!
"ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 10/1/2009 - 5:29 pm replyIgnore userdid anyone post this yet? this is actually a pretty big development, not so much because of the magnitude of the change, but because of the direction.
FHA Borrowers May Need Bigger Down Payments in Bill (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
doubt it will pass, of course. but if it does, shouldn't the government also restrict Fannie and Freddie in the same way?
"
I'm calling this congressman tomorrow to ask what I can do to support that bill.
(202) 224-3121 Congressman Scott Garrett from NJ.
exactly - just like the late 70's, but the deflationary equivalent...
Hmm, link didnt copy over.
FHA Borrowers May Need Bigger Down Payments in Bill (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
federal reserve dot gov? ICANN is going to hear about this.
good luck with that.
the days of petitioning big gov are over.
Does that mean we have to endure the unendurable again, i.e. Disco?
JD & NRA,
This rabble rousing and fear mongering is not about thinking it's about getting people 'emotionally' enraged enough to become irrational so they do something stupid and then more police state are legislated and passed due to the 'emergency' at hand...a lot of the info on patriot or truth sites are exaggerated or not backed by evidence....
BWW,
It clears my concience to do something productive to the fiscal responsibility of this nation. Futile or not, I'm calling.
Its not futile if we all get that attitude.
woohoo! I have a quiana shirt just waiting to be dusted off!
That's why CR is a more reliable limited hangout...
merchants of fear wrote:
I agree with that.
Don't you tend to think the people on here are - uh, how shall we say - a bit overly pessimistic?
SNAFU wrote:
I liked the Cash Cow/Money Honey line...
These tidy comparisons with the 1970's are nice, but just how stuff was made in mainland China and exported here, back then?
ZERO
Is it possible to be overly pessimistic?
Everything is OK Montage
YouTube - Everything is OK Montage
Most excellent !
Bell bottoms are less ugly than low rise jeans with your fatroll
hanging over.
No CR has a good balance IMO...pessimism is now realistic...based on the data stream...but who knows what to do? Just watch the 'disaster' show I guess...
NOTaREALmerican wrote:
Absolutely. Except that last year, at this time, not pessimistic enough? There sure is a huge self interest globally for the pessimists to be wrong. Until they are not.
I stopped at the grocery store on the way to work and was tempted
by some Halloween decorations for the office. Every single one of them
was made in China. I didn't buy.
sm_landlord wrote:
I have friends in the trades - they aren't laughing at all. Without mass-mini-mcmansion production they are fighting among themselves for the leaky sink biz. Okay work when no one else wants it and they can charge $50/hr... not so hot when they are all falling over each other to undercut and get the job. Tough. And it can get tougher - when folks don't have money to even pay that they let the sink drip - or fix it themselves.
In the last big RE bust I knew folks in the trades who didn't work for years on end - just waited it out thinking it would be over any day now. Gee where have I heard that lately?
Mebbe I'll ask Mr. Wang down at the Chinese takeout place to put Freedom Fries on the menu.
Is it possible to be overly pessimistic? Sure. And there's something of an echo-chamber effect in here sometimes; when the same meme gets repeated so many times that it starts echoing off the walls and becomes the common (and unexamined) wisdom.
That said, optimism on the grand scale has been tainted by crooks and fools. The sane and honest take refuge in pessimism unless something is proved to be a good sign.
I was seriously wondering if King George II was going to outlaw "Freedom Kisses", back in the Section 8 Years?
I think this site is realistic
my friends call me pessimistic
I think I'm a realist.
We aren't headed for GD II. We aren't headed for an immaculate recovery and 17 year bull market.
Nothing wrong with the truth, except in a society where false optimism (like debt) is considered to be good manners.
Re: overly pessimistic
I guess we'll find out. I don't know either. More of a psychology thing really; birds of a feather and all that. It's easy to get mentally trapped in a "concept" though; have to be careful of that. I also couldn't get myself to buy toward the lows, even tho in my gut I knew the insiders would win (at-least short-term). I always assume justice will eventually prevail (which is a mental illness).
Just makes the case for the Cash for Hummers program. Everyone could use a good hummer.
juvie: Which means Friday-Monday-Tuesday will be mighty interesting.
100 points a day for 30 business days is. . . a lot.