Ahh, I think music of 1974 was better than the films of '74, though both were of excellent vintage....and also pepperred with duds and embarressments.
I liked Polanski's 200 The Pianist. I saw many analogies to this financial mess in how people do and do not "see" catastrophes slowly unfolding on the horizon.....and how the victims are left to fend for themselves in many cases.
IGN chose it as the third worst James Bond film, over The Man with the Golden Gun and Die Another Day,[21] while Norman Wilner of MSN chose it as the sixth worst.[22] Total Film listed Mr. Wint and Mr. Kidd, and Bambie and Thumper, as the first and second worst villains in the Bond series (respectively).
Mutual of Omaha is pouring millions into completing its Midtown Crossing development just east of its headquarters complex. It will include restaurants, retail, a movie theater and 300+ condos. It is scheduled to open by year end - only problem, only three units have been pre-sold
I think this is more akin to a true market discovery action--let the auction determine the market-clearing price and then get on with the business of unloading inventory (probably at a loss, but those can be written off...). A win for the housing market, a loss for Realtors (TM)--what a bummer!
anyone know if there is a condo glut on South Padre Island in Texas?
.......
Hack, again off topic but some years ago I talked with Milos Forman about shooting Jack in Cuckoo's Nest
and they had many go arounds about one more shot when Milos said print, and time and time he'd show Jack in
dailies that he nailed the scene... he also said Jack knew this was his Oscar to win or lose, hence the intensity,
recently I studied that film once more and there are a few scenes he doesn't sell well... ex, right before he strangles
Ratched...
that said, Brando showed in Godfather why he was Brando ...
edit:
agree with you Hack... Bond went to hell after that...
My mom doesn't want to sell her condo in Destin Florida because she "can't get what it's worth". I've been trying to get her to understand real estate is worth what it will sell for and that further declines are likely (Destin too is overbuilt) but no luck so far. Probably a lot of shadow existing inventory like that in addition to the monster construction.
Two weeks ago I and some friends were eating across the road from a large complex in Irvine CA that was originally supposed to be a condo complex but which was switched to rentals when they couldn't sell it. It's still almost empty though - few lights on. Guess the deluxe rental market is supersaturated too and the supply hasn't yet driven down the price enough.
Faior, I think a lot of the commercial loans underneath condos-turned-failed rentals" are in legal restructuring or foreclosure, which distracts from putting a leasing agent in place to get the stuff leased up...esp if there are no reserves for ongoing touch-up maintenance and not enuff income to pay for leasing expenses, utilities, etc.
Some just let em sit there til the foreclosure or restructuring is done.
In a way, true - the development is not in the best part of town . . . . that is not helping condo sales. They have two medical schools nearby and two major medical centers, but they are not priced for that crowd.
Miami gets mention, naturally. But the same is typical of Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Fort Lauderdale, Naples, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Fort Myers, West Palm Beach and a host of others.
Florida is condo country - apparently California doesn't go in for them to nearly the extent we do.
Part of the problem with the condo sales - from today's New York Post: "The unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52.2 percent -- a post-World War II high, according to the Labor Dept. -- meaning millions of Americans are staring at the likelihood that their lifetime earning potential will be diminished and, combined with the predicted slow economic recovery, their transition into productive members of society could be put on hold for an extended period of time."
creditcriminalslovetarp, if you're still there -- yeah, a beautiful day in the neighborhood yesterday, and equally again today. We just had coffee and rolls on Harbor Beach and watched the outrigger guys launch their canoes for a tourney. September/October are the best time of the year in the Cruz, because the weather is good and the crowds are small.
Add in Mello-Roos and some California condos may eventually reach negligible or zero value.
A friend of mine (also in LA) has developed an obsession with Vegas real estate. He has the "everybody should own; it's how you get respected and rich" mentality but not much money, hence the desire to own property he couldn't use and would have a difficult time renting. He's looked at near-Strip condos which I have guesstimated have negligible value due to HOA and taxes, although the asking prices are still 70K or so.
My condolences for condoning the construction of the Condor condos Condoleeze Rice, time to call in the condottieri to avoid the condign for your conduit's conduct
I know of at least one condo tower on South Padre that is going to get torn down due to the contractors walking off the job for non payment and it has sat for awhile.
When you think of governmental corruption, think of this area, we are the leaders here in South Texas. I am sure we are up in the top tier of bankster operations too..
Here's another strategy: split the development into part rentals and part sales, so you can sell a critical number to get FHA coverage of loans (I think it's 75% of the project).
How you structure an HOA on a building that's got split ownership like this (imagine if structural repairs are needed under both the sold and rentals, or if the rental section goes BK...) is beyond my poor imagination.
"Two weeks ago I and some friends were eating across the road from a large complex in Irvine CA that was originally supposed to be a condo complex but which was switched to rentals when they couldn't sell it. It's still almost empty though - few lights on. Guess the deluxe rental market is supersaturated too and the supply hasn't yet driven down the price enough."
Similar development near me; still trying to sell them, but also leasing them. They want up to $3200 for a 3-BR. You can get a 4-5 BR house for that, or less, even around here. They've leased a few; not many.
The project's in trouble, mechanics liens all over the place, debtors closing in; I guess they figure if they cut prices too much they might as well call it a day. News flash: call it a day. Nothing's going to save you.
Unemployment for those seeking work between the ages of 16-24 has breached 50%.
I wonder what happens when a bunch of young men are shut out of an economic system? What happens when this portion of our population no longer has a stake in the status quo? What do you suppose their abundant energy, ambition, and aggression will be put towards?
Hoopajoops LTD,
Video games. At least until their parents throw them out and ban sleepover dates. Then it will be anger usually only seen when drunk, but they'll be angrier because they can't even afford the liquor.
Yeah, I know where you're going, and it's quite possible. If nothing changes at the top, it's in fact quite probable. And I don't expect things to change much at the top.
Kinda nasty to watch it happen. We had a summer student worker manning the front desk this summer (she's worked for our department for years); but we had to let her go last week, because it's a student job and she actually graduated this summer. So what's she doing with her new diploma? Scrabbling to get ight back in to our leaky boat of an institution through some other porthole, because there's nothing else out there for her.
I expect you're right. My point, though, was that any calculation of Florida's downside exposure, not taking into account that the state has an unusually high concentration of condos, will understate conditions here.
Evidently hard if you live elsewhere to recognize the balance, as against SFHs, is so different.
One of the reasons for the glut of condos was the encouragement of cities to build them. Populated by childless young professionals or beyond-child-raising-age oldsters, they bring in a nice taxable population without the revenue-bleeding side-effects caused by all the resources needed by those damn kids. (Some cities went so far as to discourage 3- and 4-bedroom condos, knowing that smaller ones would encourage the professionals to move on if they made the mistake of fertility -- so no expensive concomitant school-building programs.)
I finally got back and replied on the last thread. Just working around the house today (fortunately, it's not a condo, but that does mean there's more work to do).
Last time I left, I stayed signed in. This time I'm signing out. Be back in a while.
WASHINGTON (AP) - Big job losses and a spike in early retirement claims from laid-off seniors will force Social Security to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes the next two years, the first time that's happened since the 1980s.
Oh, those places will be really really sorry when the banks give up
and they have to be taken back for failure to pay taxes and are totally
rotted 5 years from now.
If there are too few people there, then the maintenance goes into a
death spiral.
I've been posting about this for a while.
I think the legislature should be allowing for some secessions, in
the condo world, especially for those with independent buildings.
Say, 4 plexes with all 4 units current, can secede, arrange for their
own water/garbage bill, and either pay to use the pool individually
or not.
Even tho Florida is further along the road to Condo Apocalypse than
anywhere else, the legislature has done nothing.
In towers, perhaps this could be done by floor.
This can only be temporary, but it's the best I can think of.
Mezzanine debt holders have been particularly active of late, exercising their option to push overleveraged owners -- including many who purchased property at inflated prices at the height of the market two or three years ago -- into foreclosure in order to gain control of the property.
FBOP Corp., an Oak Park, IL-based bank holding company that owns and controls nine banks across the U.S., entered into a cease and desist order with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Don't know where the 50% unemployment rate for 16-24 year old is from, but the BLS Empsit Employment Situation News Release
shows employment:population ratio of 16-19 year olds seasonally adjusted going from:
Employment report: 32.4% in Aug 2008 down to 28.1% in Aug 2009. Dropping 0.5% per month steady over that time frame
Household survey: 35.4% in Aug 2008 down to 31.5% in Aug 2009. Falling just as much, but more volatile
pre-recession, the estimate for larger payouts than pay-ins was 2017. that was the the doomsday.
The deficits - $10 billion in 2010 and $9 billion in 2011 - won't affect payments to retirees because Social Security has accumulated surpluses from previous years totaling $2.5 trillion. But they will add to the overall federal deficit.
Applications for retirement benefits are 23 percent higher than last year, while disability claims have risen by about 20 percent.
Wow. The increased claims matched with decreased payrolls have done it. I'm beginning to think that the artificial debt ceiling by congress could develop into one of the big stories
Wouldn't know about the mushrooms, but the deer are doing fine; both four-legged and two-legged.
Morale is low among staff and faculty; don't know how much the students notice. In support of staff and faculty strikes and to protest increased fees and reduced classes, some of the students have barricaded themselves in the Graduate Student lounge, probably the most irrelevant facility on campus because grad students don't use it. But if you are going to protest for the people's revolution, why not do it from a big lounge with comfy couches, wifi, free printers, a pingpong table, a refrigerator, and clean restrooms. Che would be proud.
IOW, business as usual. Good 420 this year, as always.
"Statistics indicate that seniors move an average of 3.2 times during their retirement years. Senior households over the age of 50 face a move from a single family home to a condominium or apartment, to a retirement home and sometimes to a nursing home. Life Leases are ideally suited for providing housing to our aging population who may be quite independent today but may require support services tomorrow. "
Whenever the Republicans talk of cutting taxes first and discussing the national security second, they remind me of a very tired rich man who said to his chauffeur: "Drive off that cliff James, I want to commit suicide". -- Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
It's getting bad for the middle class. Neither my brother in law nor sister in law can find meaningful employment with their fresh bachelors degrees (neither actually learned anything useful in college, the S.I.L majoring in psych and the B.I.L. in business), so they've been living at home - 18 months for the SIL, 4 for the BIL and having their expenses covered by their parents. Now that their mom has lost her job, all the income to support the 4 of them comes from their dad and his employment with a California city government. One wonders how long this can be sustained...
There is one ray of light... SIL just got engaged - to a guy with a minimum wage part time job.
But if you are going to protest for the people's revolution, why not do it from a big lounge with comfy couches, wifi, free printers, a pingpong table, a refrigerator, and clean restrooms. Che would be proud.
Whenever someone mentions to me that 'our children are our future' I suggest they drive through the local university campus on a rainy day and observe the number of students who lacked the foresight to glance at the weather forecast and pack an umbrella.
However, if they've become clever enough to organize their protests in such a way minimize the character-building deprivation of life's little luxuries, perhaps I might have to re-evaluate my opinion. They make Che look like myopic buffoon.
Is there ever a time at that university when students haven't barricaded themselves into a building, chained themselves to a tree or otherwise been engaged with such silliness?
Google the 'shrooms......impossible to mis-identify, and darn tasty....If I have a totem organism, they're it.
(420?....I've been gone a LONG time.....)
Piece by piece, Arizona is planning to sell off as many as 32 state properties to cover a historic $3 billion budget deficit. The state is in good company: California, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut are unloading state holdings, too.
I've always wanted a capital
Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer signed the bill that approves the sale of state buildings on Sept. 3. Now, the state is deciding what to sell.
Properties around the state that may be sold and leased back include the House and Senate buildings, the Arizona State Hospital, the Arizona Pioneers’ Home retirement facility (built a year before Arizona gained statehood in 1912), and Kartchner Caverns State Park.
If it sells its Capitol buildings, only employees of the state agricultural laboratory would have to pack up and leave. Others would stay where they are as the state government leases back the properties over several years, eventually resuming ownership when the arranged terms end. The state has placed a total replacement value of roughly $1 billion on all the properties.
“Although there may be problems with the symbolism surrounding this, I think that at the end of the day, it’s something that the state has to do,” Ms. Lopez says. “We don’t have any choice.”
Realtors and lenders say new appraisal rules, forced on the industry by State Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, are slowing down the sales and mortgage process, hindering deals that used to sail through.
The new requirements hold appraisers to higher standards, and severely restrict contact between them and lenders to prevent fraud.
And appraisers aren’t taking chances, opting for more conservative valuations of homes with no leeway, not even to accommodate seller financing desired by both parties to the deal.
“The appraisers are being very close to the cost,” said Miriam Treger, a branch manager for RealtyUSA. “Part of what a house is worth is what somebody is willing to pay for it. If a house is worth $130,000, is it worth $132,000?”
As a result, what was once considered too easy — getting a higher sales price or loan amount approved than what a house was originally appraised for—can now be quite difficult.
noob goldberg,
I don't pack an umbrella to this day because I don't mind the rain (disclaimer: I grew up in Vancouver)
others may not want to carry an umbrella for the brief 5 minutes outside between lectures, during which there is no good place to store the umbrella
if you want to criticize the youth, as every generation has done for as far back as I can see, you'll have to do better than carrying an umbrella
The HOAs are broke, in both condos and SFR subdivisions. Lots of forclosures in both. My room mate works for a condo management firm, her paycheck didn't clear for 3 days last payday. Not a good sign.
It is not possible for this nation to be at once politically internationalist and economically isolationist. This is just as insane as asking one Siamese twin to high dive, while the other plays the piano.-- Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
FHA will also have a "net tangible benefit" test for streamlined refis — the transaction must either reduce the total mortgage payment; reduce the term of the loan; or switch the borrower from an adjustable to a fixed rate.
Paola Kielblock, a national product specialist at Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp., in Madison, Wis., said that as a result, lenders will no longer be able to refinance as many customers as possible on just a quarter-point dip in interest rates.
"It's a huge deal especially because FHA business has increased so substantially in the last year."
if you want to criticize the youth, as every generation has done for as far back as I can see, you'll have to do better than carrying an umbrella
I think you credit them with undertaking the analytical exercise and arriving at the decision to not bring an umbrella with them. As someone who recently left the realm of higher education, I think you're being far too charitable.
I know this is off topic but did anyone read Frank Rich today in the Times, easy call to compare Biden to Ball,
but he had it wrong on JFK, he thought they could win using a Terry and the Pirates strategy (special forces,
Colby's infiltration schemes, etc) plus, the NVA was ready to take the South, their first big success was at Ap Bac...
in '62... had they not been so Borg-like in their planning they could have chased ARVN all the way to Saigon in
early '65 and then and only then was USA faced with the choice. JFK kept saying all big issues had to wait on his
re-election such as Nam, John Paton Davies, etc.
.......
noob goldberg,
I would say there is a much greater divergence between the best and worst of the younger generation. Add on to that the turning of university into the universal solution for young people as manufacturing as been shrinking. Look at a faculty that does self-selection like engineering over time if you want to compare likes to likes.
Heh, I learned something new today. Thanks JD. I wonder if their code holds anything for us today:
You are the elite of the German Army. For you, combat shall be fulfillment. You shall seek it out and train yourself to stand any test.
Cultivate true comradeship, for together with your comrades you will triumph or die.
Be shy of speech and incorruptible. Men act, women chatter; chatter will bring you to the grave.
Calm and caution, vigor and determination, valour and a fanatical offensive spirit will make you superior in attack.
In facing the foe, ammunition is the most precious thing. He who shoots uselessly, merely to reassure himself, is a man without guts. He is a weakling and does not deserve the title of paratrooper.
Never surrender. Your honour lies in Victory or Death.
Only with good weapons can you have success. So look after them on the principle—First my weapons, then myself.
You must grasp the full meaning of an operation so that, should your leader fall by the way, you can carry it out with coolness and caution.
Fight chivalrously against an honest foe; armed irregulars deserve no quarter.
Keep your eyes wide open. Tune yourself to the top most pitch. Be nimble as a greyhound, as tough as leather, as hard as Krupp steel and so you shall be the German warrior incarnate.
Ho Chi Minh wrote Truman 8 times in the 1940's, and Harry ignored him every time...
(from Wiki)
In 1941, Hồ returned to Vietnam to lead the Việt Minh independence movement. He oversaw many successful military actions against the Vichy French and Japanese occupation of Vietnam during World War II, supported closely but clandestinely by the United States Office of Strategic Services, and also later against the French bid to reoccupy the country (1946-1954). He was also jailed in China for many months by Chiang Kai-shek's local authorities. After his release in 1943, he again returned to Vietnam. He was treated for malaria and dysentery by American OSS doctors. In the highlands in 1944, he lived with Do Thi Lac, a woman of Tay ethnicity. Lac had a son in 1956.
After the August Revolution (1945) organized by the Việt Minh, Hồ became Chairman of the Provisional Government (Premier of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam) and issued a Proclamation of Independence of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam that borrowed much from the French and American declarations. Though he convinced Emperor Bảo Đại to abdicate, his government was not recognized by any country. He repeatedly petitioned American President Harry Truman for support for Vietnamese independence, citing the Atlantic Charter, but Truman never responded.
Did check on the employment:population of 16-24 year olds, ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/aat3.txt
It's 51.22%
Only 40.2% of 16-19 year olds, and 74.4% of 20-24 year olds are judged to be in the labor force though. If you consider only of those in the labor force, the U-3 for that age group is 12.84%. That's from the household survey, which does report a higher employment among that age group than does the survey from employers. Probably because younger people are more likely to be work for employers that don't get surveyed. Normally the employer survey reports higher employment than the household survey, because it counts jobs not people.
I would say there is a much greater divergence between the best and worst of the younger generation. Add on to that must be turning university into the universal solution for young people as manufacturing as been shrinking. Look at a faculty that does self-selection like engineering over time if you want to compare likes to likes.
I can't disagree with any of those points, EHP. And I am optimistic about youth of today; if I look back I would have often, if not more frequently, looked quite foolish. But it doesn't mean that we don't take them to task on it and interrupt them when they begin rationalizing stupidity.
The best lessons I got as a youth were when someone old and grizzled interrupted my flowing rationalization of some silly action with the words "you're being a dumbass, smarten up."
By my estimation, one out of every five or six people, judging by the number of people jammed under each one.
As a freshman I rarely carried an umbrella, but I had one perpetually in my backpack by the time I was in grad school. The total size of a collapsible umbrella is approximately 1 inch by 1 inch by 6 inches. Considering that most kids have a laptop, three textbooks, their ipod, water bottle, writing utensils, etc etc etc, why would you not just add an umbrella to that mix? Might even give you an excuse to meet a pretty girl.
Simple minded comparison.
Well that goes without saying, and I've never submitted otherwise.
i would have preferred that the savings from eliminating the FFELP subsidizes go towards increased grants or work study programs and not towards increased debt issuance.
Do you think that it is a coincidence that those who believe government intervention in health care will lead to communism are such strong advocates of expanded government power under the Patriot Act.
Two guys hanging around in a cave have been able to get us to voluntarily give up our freedoms something that the Soviets with their thousands of nuclear warheads were never able to do. Do people honestly think that the PTB are looking for these extended powers to go after Al Qaeda?
Money figures show there's trouble ahead - Telegraph Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic. The M3 money data is flashing early warning signals of a deflation crisis next year in nearly half the world economy. Emergency schemes that have propped up spending are being withdrawn, gently or otherwise.
I think Bernanke needs to review his "It" speech, specifically the parts where he claims that the structural and political differences in the US would ensure that "it" couldn't happen here.
I can see that you are in a different time and place reference.
Nobody brought a laptop to school- that would be asking to be robbed leaving school- small bags, a drop wallet with $10 in ones.
But I had a great urban school experience.
I did have a kick butt overcoat to wear in the rain- a surplus East German Officer's coat I picked up for $11 bucks.
If you looked like a target- you were robbed- if you looked like you had crap, and were mean enough to keep your crap- no problem.
You get on that Subway at 1am to take that ride to Broad and Cecile B. and you are either tough enough, or not. Suburban kids were just so much lunch money to most of the natives. I guess I was not.
Basel Too,
The whole society is geared towards the established older and wealthier population -- granted they do form a majority of the voting population. The growth from debt has not only flat lined in total, but it has shrunk in the household and corporate sector. The government can only support a contradicting change for a limited period of time. I do agree with your suggested redirection of spending, but I view this reshuffling as a temporary thing. Now we must reevaluate, and not by choice. Either tuition and fees fall or the number of students do. Either wages rise or the cost of housing falls. Either equities fall or the pool of buyers do.
An umbrella?! You people must not be Oregonians. Carrying an umbrella here in Portland would be tantamount to wearing a sandwich board saying, "I'm not from around here, am I?"
I have a good, dependable raincoat and an almost-waterproof bag, both of which have held up for more than 3 years now, and I haven't carried an umbrella since I was six years old. Umbrellas are for places where the rain stops. Here, you just assume it will always be raining and dress accordingly.
I must admit I rarely carried an umbrella in college, challenging the rain gods and gritty hardbitten suburban yuppie kids at UCSD; but the rain was warm,...and laptops were a long long way into the future.
"Metaphorically, Americans never carry umbrellas because it never rains."
Sadly, I find this attitude among many of my co-religionists of a conservative bent. There is no climate change - it is a scam by socialists. There is no danger of pandemic flu - it is a scam by socialists. The financial crisis was caused by the poor, who obtained loans they didn't deserve through the intervention of socialists.
Three conclusions can be drawn from this:
Bad things never happen.
The witches have all turned socialist.
Bad people are trying to frighten us.
These are, I believe, the assumptions of a scared and insecure petit bourgeoisie that feels the sand slipping out from under its feet, and itwould like to blame anyone unable to threaten it.
The Holy Father does not labor under these illusions, but his understanding is considered by these people to be non-binding.
Pavel, considering that scapegoating, as a concept, is basically superstitious in origin, why would these people whom you describe not be susceptable to it?
pavel.chichikov
You labor under the assumption that rain is a bad thing.
Anything you can do in the sun, you can do in the rain.
Plus, rain waters all kinds of plants which make the micro-climate more enjoyable when the sun does shine and provides fresh water for drinking.
Furthermore, it cleans the streets and air while providing amusement to kids building miniature rivers or adults sliding through the mud.
Balance is important, but the balance is not between good and bad. It's between good and good.
Is saying there is a 'vast right wing conspiracy' a form of scapegoating after we have been conditioned for the last 8 years that conspiracies are tin foil and don't really exist. Maybe saying there is a vast right wing conspiracy is a cover for more systemic problems on both sides of the aisle. For the last 8 years Islamophobia was encouraged by the Right (and Left) and the media...now there is a process underway to make the trusty Islamophobe Right appear racist...now there is a phobia of the Right Wing being promoted...we just go from one phobia of one group of people to the next...driven by media reporting and analysis
"Pavel, considering that scapegoating, as a concept, is basically superstitious in origin, why would these people whom you describe not be susceptable to it?"
barfly, I think we have a difference of opinion as to the substance of religious faith. But may I point out that none of us is immune from scapegoating,especially when we're frightened.
burnside,
"Pavel, the thing I find remarkable about this is that I should think it remarkable."
I know what you mean. I have, however, been smashing my head against this wall for some years on a blog whose proprietor is a personal friend of mine. In religion we could not agree more. Otherwise...but that's the way life can be.
Actually, if you want a simple observational test for how unthoughtful my peers can be, you should try listening to their conversations on the bus from school. I've heard some real doozies. Overheard recently: "Oh sweet! I got this used book and somebody already highlighted it for me, so I only have to read those parts. Score!"
The book in question was a NOVEL.
Certainly, we can be very, very, stupid, but umbrellas don't quite tell the tale.
Richard Meier designed a glass tower overlooking Prospect Park in Brooklyn....now prices are 40% off original asking, only 25 of 99 units have sold, and more than 20 million in ccontract deposits have been abandoned. And this is a high-end, architecturally significant building...or was, when it was designed and marketed. Now, it provides schadenfreude for the neighborhood.
When I was a young whippersnapper, we had Cliffs Notes, which were like a 25 page summation of a book, a way to cheat and not read the genuine article...
Nowadays, youngsters have Cliffs Notes that are even shorter in length, You can find them all over the internet, and rarely do they have any depth deeper than a page or 2~
NPR is re-broadcasting an excellent episode of Planet Money. The journalists responsible for creating and popularizing this are Ira Glass, Adam Davidson, and Alex Blumberg.
As I listen tho this, I realize that these guys are not one step ahead of any other financial journalists out there - they are 10 steps ahead. I m deep inside the financial industry - I design and price and manufacture many of the products you guys talk about all the time here - and these guys really get it. I think HHack already gave a reference for this episode and these guys yesterday, but I gotta say, these guys are worth listening to.
CR, I know you have contact with Alex and David, and I hope they know that there are people inside the industry who think they are spot on, and I sure hope that more people hear what they have to say.
But may I point out that none of us is immune from scapegoating,especially when we're frightened.
Pavel, not to unduly belabor the point, but this raises another question, perhaps moot. If God is their solace and protector, why are they frightened? Please don't feel compelled to answer, unless you so choose.
Well, no. Nobody held the gun to their heads. There
are big billboards of attys promising to get deposits back here
I've seen. For the most part there is no justification.
No metaphor on my part, but you used the lack of umbrellas as a metaphor implying that rain was an apparent but ignored problem. I said that rain is no problem at all.
Sewage flooding the streets and people refusing to put on boots because they deem it perfectly acceptable would be a more apt metaphor. As for 40 days and nights, I've only been through one stretch of rain here that lasted 33 days before a couple hours of sunshine and then another few days of rain.
patientrenter,
I never knew you had a professional interest in the topics at hand. Would you mind sharing what part of the financial universe you are near? If it's something frequently talked about here, that's got to be MBS? Just curious, not planning to send unmarked helicopters your way
In One Home, a Mighty City's Rise and Fall
Price of Typical Detroit House: $7,100
..And the median selling price for a home stood at a paltry $7,100 as of July, according to First American CoreLogic Inc., a real-estate research firm -- down from $73,000 three years earlier.
---------------------
Once TSHTF in Los Angeles, Las Vegas & my Asphaltistan: I expect prices to decline at a much faster pace. Sometimes I think my USA WAG of [19 @ '19] may be too optimistic.
If a project is not finished as contracted, isn't that a justification to get your deposit for construction back or does fine print cover that somehow...
lawyerliz,
1. Evil Evil could be considered a double negative
2. When they want to talk with you, they send a pair of middle aged agents in a Ford Taurus and ask you to coffee
patientrenter,
Don't be a tease, there's no way you can't give a general indication. I'm not asking for your position, but the category of products you deal with. Could be public, could be private sector. Could be office secretary, could be senior manager. We won't know, I just want to know from where you might have insight
My son got a psych degree; he actually got a relevant (tho miserable) job
trying to keep dopers on their methadone.
One of the most political relevant scenes in any movie was in Sid and Nancy
with their methadone administrator telling them that are blowing it, and they needed some healthy chaos to bring down the system.
I kind of dig the Catholic Church (well, as much enthusiasm as somebody that believes in life before death can muster, that is...) and I know you share the same deity as the righty-tighty-gawdalmightys, but there is an awesome schism between the clans that lay claim, no?
"Stop interfering with my attempt to scapegoat you before I myself am scapegoated."
Hoops, a large part of my spiritual life is in trying to stop blaming other people for the unpleasantness I've experienced. There are memorable passages in scripture to that effect.
Sorry, EHP, but on the internet I can say what I really think. I certainly cannot do that in my professional environment, so I must keep a strict separation. I get to see and evaluate asset portfolios with a very broad range of assets, although that's not the main part of my job. That's probably the best I can do.
Other people take a run at it and fall down all the time.
so there's no real hypocrisy involved. I think I get that. Again, thank you, and I hope you don't take any remarks of mine in any way personally. I respect you very much.
I kind of dig the Catholic Church (well, as much enthusiasm as somebody that believes in life before death, that is...) and I know you share the same deity as the righty-tighty-gawdalmightys, but there is an awesome schism between the clans that lay claim, no?:
JD, a memorable aphorism by a German bartender that someone told me about: Mann schlept sich durch. Maybe untranslatable, something like: People can barely haul their awkward selves through life.
They exasperate me, I exasperate them. Rain comes down on everyone, the just and the unjust, and who is able to judge the difference between them? Who should?
, could be senior manager. We won't know
Got some hiring and firing control, so not the lowest level. And I think I'm guessing or remembering something about fiduciary responsibility to private parties,...wealthy private parties, as a matter of fact, as referenced by the rigorous caution.
I'm fascinated why none of the commenters has asked "why?" that condos are not included in the realty statistics. It seems like an obvious thing that this greatly distorts ownership, sales, defaults and rental numbers. Oh, and CRE and MBS numbers too. Also
Sorry, I gave the wrong reference for that Planet Money NPR radio show. It's a re-broadcast of a show one year ago, but with updates. I gave the internet address of the show one year ago. The current version, with the updates, may be found at This American Life
pavel,
Agree with you on that one. Get tired of people who go off the beaten track need medication theme...I don't want your normal. Let me have my voices, my muse as long as I am not a threat to myself or others. Everyone is addicted to something, and this concept of normalcy wears thin.
On another note...I still feel strongly that mankind does have an innate moral code--very least a responsibility to protect the tribe from those who prey. This requires judgment. If a wolf walks among the flock...duty calls. I still find the idea of waiting for God to sort it all out inherently wrong, when we are supposed to have knowledge of good and evil.
The condo bust is a great thing for NY renters...so many empty towers, so few trustafarians able to pay. Williamsburg got condo fever big time...
"A working-class neighborhood became a bohemian theme park, which in turn became a fantasyland for luxury-condo developers. Now, littered with half-built shells of a vanished boom, Williamsburg is looking like something else entirely: Miami
Everyone judges everything all the time. You can't
live without judging. Who will I comment on? How
long will I stay on CR? Do I want another slice of . Is patient right or wrong? Etc etc.
And if you can't judge other peoples' behavior you
may well get tangled up in something it would be
best to avoid.
A friend just bought a condo in San Padre for around $300,000. I think it's 2 bed 1.5 bath, so he may have overpaid a tad. Not sure though... the key is probably to look at foreclosures.
What I find most intriguing about the idea of an afterlife, is the idea that there couldn't be a pre-life, where we just hang out, waiting for our chance to be somebody.
It's just as plausible, and yet it's never talked about by the religious powers that be...
Hey, our condo shells are completely built. There are a few holes in
the ground which won't be filled for a while. But generally the things get
finished, to look at them from the outside.
.
Some buyers of the glass tower condo apparently couldn't get their financing but the question is does the financing fall through because the project wasn't viable in this market(started in 2005) thus lenders see too much risk in lending to a failed development. Meier didn't even meet with bankers financing the project until 2009 according to the Times article and is ready to try another project in the area.
I don't want your normal. Let me have my voices, my muse as long as I am not a threat to myself or others.
People react to voices in their heads all the time, often to the great harm of themselves and others. How do you know, and more important, how do we know, you won't do something crazy?
Hey, LL, is pineapple upside-down cake anywhere on your menu for this Sunday? We disagree on many things, but you know I eat vicariously off your table, and right now I'm thinking dessert
If T-Rex had feathers, would we know? Some scientist think that chickens are their closest relatives. All we have are bones and the assumption that these were reptiles. Were they slow, cold blooded creatures or more active, warm blooded creatures? I've seen opinions but little proof of many of the conjectures about dinosaurs.
now prices are 40% off original asking, only 25 of 99 units have sold, and more than 20 million in ccontract deposits have been abandoned.
They will consider themselves lucky. Let's see... $20,000,000/99 is just over $200,000 per unit!
I'm shocked that people paying $1.7M (instead of $2.8M) think they received a bargain. Oh, your link of the voyeurs looking into the building was quite funny!
There is a chocolate cherry cake in my fancy cake book that
I might make for my mom's 86th Birthday. Things in that
book are medium hard.
I bought it just for the pineapple upsidedown cake, my old
recipe book being destroyed in Andrew. The old cookbooks
are the one thing I still miss from hurricane Andrew stuff.
"With my Sun morning coffee, I picked up a Gâteau au Chocolat from Saint Honore Bakery for a mid-afternoon treat with whipped cream."
Ah, that does sound good. Let me look up Portland RE to see when I can move to Portland (or should I make it Vancouver)? But, as Liz points out, nothing beats good home-baked, and I'll take those apple-raisin cookies as soon as they come out of the oven
Must be desert time all over the world, i'm having cookies and milk while i wait for the first coat of primer to dry on my double front doors. Now will the voice in mt head tell me what color to paint them.
Rajesh: there exists numerous fossils now that show in mineralized deposits various kinds of feathers (different stages of evolution) that the two-legged, 3-toed dinos had feathers. Check the link above to Scientific American story.
JimPortlandOR
That's a cool café. Now build that highspeed rail already so I can enjoy that food and your relatively warm weather over lunch already. It's BNSF's right of way, has any money been budgeted for that hyped up plan yet?
the dollar is seen as most susceptible to damage after some at the G20 meeting questioned the stability of the dollar in light of its status as the world's reserve currency.
The dollar rose last week, in part because of equity market weakness, but it has fallen 4.3 percent this quarter against a basket of major currencies.
The dollar's weakness of late has not come because of U.S. economic weakness, but because of emergent recovery around the world. Investors have used the dollar as a funding currency to buy riskier assets around the world.
The U.S. economy is rebounding, largely due to increased borrowing and government stimulus, while world leaders expressed concern that these trends cannot be sustained in the long term.
...
World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the United States should not take the dollar's status as the key global reserve currency for granted because other options are emerging.
In excerpts released on Sunday from a speech he is to deliver on Monday, Zoellick said global economic forces were shifting and it was time now to prepare for the fact that growth will come from multiple sources.
...
Analysts were quick to note that without concrete steps, the pledge amounts to lip service and it is unlikely any countries would bow to G20-imposed rules on how to run their domestic economies.
Even so, such a plan would be a marked shift and could signal a longer-term move away from the dollar.
"In the long run, I think they want another reserve currency, whether it's the Special Drawing Rights or the Chinese yuan," said Kevin Chau, currency strategist at research firm IDEAglobal in New York.
"For any country's currency to gain that kind of credibility and trust, it would take years of development," he said.
That said, the greenback fell to a fresh low against the euro and dropped below the key 90 yen-per-dollar level this week.
Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace.
These brave men, Neil Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin, know that there is no hope for their recovery. But they also know that there is hope for mankind in their sacrifice.
These two men are laying down their lives in mankind's most noble goal: the search for truth and understanding.
They will be mourned by their families and friends; they will be mourned by the nation; they will be mourned by the people of the world; they will be mourned by a Mother Earth that dared send two of her sons into the unknown.
In their exploration, they stirred the people of the world to feel as one; in their sacrifice, they bind more tightly the brotherhood of man.
In ancient days, men looked at the stars and saw their heroes in the constellations. In modern times, we do much the same, but our heroes are epic men of flesh and blood.
Others will follow, and surely find their way home. Man's search will not be denied. But these men were the first, and they will remain the foremost in our hearts.
For every human being who looks up at the moon in the nights to come will know that there is some corner of another world that is forever mankind.
I've got myself 100 year old solid wood doors that came out of a church Liz and I've gotta match them up with a deep gray that looks like burgandy from a distance. I love to paint and have the patience of Job.
If the dollar stops being the reserve currency, the demand for dollars will go up as the new (fictional) reserve currency drops like a stone. From a developing country perspective, the most important attribute of the a reserve currency is that it be weak,so that it's decline disguises all the money printing you are doing.
This is why T's are still selling... because there's a belief that a recovery will allow the Fed to unwind it's monetization and enable DC to cut deficits. The next leg down will dispel that idea.
Grey is very hard to deal with. It takes on the color of the big surfaces' opposites
on the color wheel when used for trim. I had a pink wall with grey trim that
regrettably ended up looking baby blue.
You want to go lighter, for a pleasing contrast. I like bright colors for doors.
Rajesh,
What if reserves just dwindle? Trade has dropped a lot and reserves were arguably oversized before it dropped. About 2/3rd of reserves were in USD. Reallocation is just one threat
EHP: Amtrac will have to do for a visit from the north for longer than I care to think about - but you can always make it a long weekend in portland since we have lots of local-food oriented places to make you fat with four meals a day (and NOT Taco Bells Fourth Meal).
According the Bloomberg, 3-mo T-bills are selling at a 0.1% discount to face value. I guess that 0.4% annual return is because of the dangers of inflation.
Thanks Liz and EHP, it might turn out to be red since I love red and burgandy. Character and simplicity is what I like and I kept the same door handles since they already have that patina on them.
Rajesh,
I'm not expecting the USD to fall for now. I'm saying upon exiting crisis mode, there will be a surplus of USD which will bring inflationary forces from currency devaluation when it's too late and undesired.
" The force - I suppose I have to say the image - of the dinosaur, as it was understood by the nineteenth century, comes through here, terrifyingly. It is like reading Conan Doyle's "Lost World." The giant Irish elk (a mammal and, anyway, not that amazing - just a big moose) shares pride of place here with the big lizards, as he does in Doyle's story. The reason, I suspect, is that it wasn't so much the distant, scary past that drew the nineteenth century, but the simple specter of giganticism, bigness itself. They wanted their dinosaurs to loom over them, as their tycoons did. In the "lost World" of Conan Doyle, in fact, the dinosaurs are constantly being called Gothic. They were interested in big, whereas we are interested in mean. (Was this because bigness was their problem - mass armies, mass society, massiveness - whereas meanness is ours - small wars, horrible murders?) The difference between the old Parisian and the new New York dinosaurs is the difference between an industrial dinosaur, big and dumb and looming, and the postindustrial dinosaur, swift and smart and a scavenger. We make our monsters according to the armature of our fears. They wanted what loomed over them to be huge, stolid, immovable, and a little slow, like J. P. Morgan or Mr. Frick. We want them now to be smart, fast, mean, ugly, and wearing expensive suits, like Barry Diller or Rupert Murdoch."
Re: dinos with feathers; wouldn't be surprised. Isn't the current wisdom that they were warm-blooded, most of them.
Been down at the beach watching the pelicans lately; they go back 40 million years and if there's any bird you could see as a relative of dinosaurs, they are it. Big primitive-looking things with bright yellow eyes, giant beaks, and flexible necks. Sometimes down at the wharf one will perch on the railing and let you get within a few feet. It's an experience.
Call me in five years when the crisis will be nearing an end and ask me what my opinion of the dollar is. We are not "over the hump". Another panic is around the corner and if I knew when, I'd become very rich and I certainly wouldn't tell you.
What's the interior/exterior designer market like these days? I would assume they feel it more than anyone. I know via family friends of someone who was down in LA doing the ultra high end interior design work. Oprah high end.
EHP;
"What's the interior/exterior designer market like these days?"
Don't know about that, but here's a tell. A story in today's LATimes pointed out that houses by well-known architects are no longer bringing significant premiums at resale.
How's the 'war on terror' going to go with a weak dollar? Is a strong military based on a strong dollar? To advocate a debasement of the dollar while calling for strength to defeat enemies seems problematic. Some evolving policy positions are somehow contradictory. Internationalism conflicts with nationalism. It's inherently contradictory in issues of national self defense.
Rajesh,
I take it one step at a time. Right now I'm expecting USD to rise, because the crisis is not near over. Five years does seem like a long time frame given the pace of things, even if by occasional sprints. When it comes time to reconcile accounts: Financially, the USD is worth almost nothing. Probably a net debtor and constrained government cash flow. Whatever currency the US does use will have a great value based on market size, natural resources, education, and other enduring real economic factors. Think of Russian Rouble, but in a world where all the other countries were doing much worse at the same time.
Austin's old downtown warehouse district is gone and built over with about a dozen high rise condos (the last 3 are almost done, including the tallest building in the city at 55 stories). There are dozens of new condo buildings in the 4 to 10 story range, and countless old apartment complexes that have been converted (or reconverted since some of them have been condos before in previous r/e boom/bust cycles). The condo fees in the high rises alone are almost what I pay in rent, not to mention taxes. Even if they were giving them away, I doubt I could afford to live downtown (I'm not rich but not badly off either, and 10 years ago I lived in that area very cheaply). Many have resorted to renting out unsold units, but the rents for small apartments are often well over $2000/mo. This is not Manhattan or SF. It's not even a Dallas. Where do they think all those people with all that money are going to come from?
What I want to know is who will be living in those places 5 or 10 years from now and what sort of condition those buildings will be in.
A highrise condo building in Phx downtown is renting really cheap. Under $900.00 for a 1 bed, utilities included. The building has full security and lobby staff. Quite a come down from the hayday prices of $1,500.00 plus.
I suppose that to include him as part of "a vast right-wing conspiracy", whether or not such a construct actually exists, would hinge upon what you thought of the objectives of the World Bank. What do you think?
jussumbody,
Try $800/sq ft lofts in a 96 year old former telephone exchange building. The area around it will be nice, but that will depend how quickly the surrounding area gets redeveloped given a housing bust. The upsides are near a subway, possible future light rail line, near the sea wall, and all the people/parks/amenities that will eventually come with future development. The project seems fine to me, but the price is double what's sensible.
So there's your answer. The people who will live in such buildings are ones that will want to buy in a few years at half the price, and maybe less if there is still too much supply or incomes fall. First we need to wait out the barrier of unwilling, but eventually forced sellers.
I can't recall if we looked a this before, but it's a decent article about an enduring difference between RE price trends since WW2 vs. over the next 20-30 years:
Another trashed apartment is the last thing Page Mill Properties needs right now. After using other people's money the past three years to buy and improve nearly half the rental units in this hardscrabble community wedged between the bay and the gleaming city of Palo Alto, a lot more than spray paint has hit a wall. Last month, with the real estate market in the dumps, the group failed to make a $50 million loan payment to Wells Fargo. And when a San Mateo County judge placed its approximately 1,800 units under receivership, it left the fate of Page Mill's controversial real estate empire in jeopardy and many of its working-class tenants fearful about their future.
The drama has been brewing since 2006, when Page Mill, headed by longtime Bay Area property investor David Taran, began acquiring buildings on the city's west side. The group snapped up about 1,800 units, roughly half of the city's rental stock, city officials say.
CalPERS, the California Public Employees' Retirement System, helped fuel the buying by investing $100 million, and Page Mill got a quarter-billion-dollar loan from Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo. CalPERS, under pressure by city officials and activists in East Palo Alto to end its involvement with Page Mill, would not comment. Neither would Wells Fargo, saying only that "the safety and quality of life of the tenants at Woodland Park is of primary concern to Wells Fargo."
barfly,
The idea of a 'vast right wing conspiracy' is probably just a tool for partisan politics. The idea of a small compartmentalized organized elitist group on the so-called Neo-con 'Right' with certain geopolitical goals is more believable and can probably be proven. Zoellick was a managing director of Goldman Sachs. The World Bank provides leveraged loans to poor countries and has focused on poverty reduction. Now environmental groups are involved in the lending practices of the World Bank(Wiki) to give it a 'Green' emphasis. The bank offers investment loans and development loans. I guess I would like to know more about their 'investment' loans and how they reduce poverty. Critics have said debt from international banks have lead to problems because of high interest which becomes hard to pay when the global economy goes through its cycles. Stiglitz has criticized the Wolrd bank and the IMF. Some critics say these banks practices are actually harmful to economic development...
"Orwells Fargo really knew how to lose money, hand over fist."
Not to worry. All will be bailed. Thank goodness the next generation of taxpayers is going to take on the burden of all these bailouts. Thanks, suckers!
Is it not a given that our Country will not be forced to house the unemployed this coming winter.I'm in the deep South where days in January and February can have hard freezes. We have seen little change in rent or housing because we had been in freefall for several years with no building of any kind.
EHP - speaking of Vancouver, I was looking at a condo today that has similar units in the building for sale asking 1.2 million and the landlord is asking $2,700/mo. That is a 453 multiple on rent to price. Good times to be a renter up here in the land that the housing crisis forgot....
TJ and The Bear,
Yup, there will be someone developing around there. Land prices, labor, and materials all fall to make the construction viable. The city/area's development is restricted by zoning, geography, and transportation. When prices fall we get more migration into the city from suburbs and other provinces/countries. Vancouver will be bringing inventory:sales down until 2012, but it'll be in an up cycle after that. A housing bubble/bust cycle is the natural state of the market here because of the development restrictions.
edit: and fwiw the area is one of the more in demand because of its location. The Olympic village is down the block and so there are things just finishing up like an awesome community centre w/ daycare. info @ Southeast False Creek
Some critics say these banks practices are actually harmful to economic development...
merchants of fear. that has been my impression also, after learning about SAP's, or Structural Adjustment Programs, that forced the privatization of nationalized resources, among other things, for paying back essentially usurious loans, and thereby putting even more pressure on already strapped economies. I have no love for either the World Bank, or the IMF.
Well if these so-called 'conspirators' want O to fail maybe it's because they think his ideas are not viable especially since the debt burden is out of control. You don't have to be on the Right to see the system is basically insolvent. O may fail because the govt' was broke because of wars, bubbles, waste, rigged contracts, funnky loans, funky bets on loans, etc.
I didn't see that Clinton produced any actual evidence of this conspiracy so it's tinfoil.
He answered a question. He wasn't asked to produce evidence.
You must have missed the Republican Politicians who said it was important to beat Obama on health care so that he would be wounded too badly to accomplish anything.
Want quotes . . . go look them up.
I'd rather clean the garage than discuss politics.
Yeah barfly...I hope the U.S. won't have to borrow from either bank in the future as our status as world reserve currency nation and policemen drops...think the U.S. could get a good interest rate?
bernankepalooza,
You can get landlords down to $20 per sq ft. in condoland.
If you have a car, and have a good reputation, you can rent a whole house from an effective speculator who isn't using it in the $2000 range or a separate basement suite for half that. Kits apartments are insanely priced. In general, much cheaper to rent than buy -- we haven't burst yet. It's always funny the first time you show someone that the conventional wisdom of owning > renting doesn't hold true.
There's some pundits and some vocal Republicans on the Right that the media quotes to attribute to the vast conspiracy...I mean some sentiment can be found on both sides of the aisle...the criticism of the central bank is growing...the public opinion on the war(s) and more war is becoming negative as results are hard to see, etc. The media blows up the divide between sides...there's growing consensus on some issues and it's worrying the efforts of lobbying groups and their supporters for past failed policies.
You must have missed the Republican Politicians who said it was important to beat Obama on health care so that he would be wounded too badly to accomplish anything.
Want quotes . . . go look them up.
In a July 17th teleconference call with activists opposing Obama's health-care initiative, (junior Senator from South Carolina, Jim) Demint (R) said, "If we are able to stop Obama on this, it will be his Waterloo". He added, "It will break him..."
back for a moment...in reference to voices and how do you know...in some cases, just like any addiction...will power is at issue. If I hear a voice or have visions from a muse...that does not rob me of my own self and my own responsibility. I have never used a voice as an excuse for wrong action. I will take this a step further.... how many of you use alcohol as an excuse to let down your inhibitions...read the studies of those who thought they were being given liquor and how behavior was changed, and in fact no alcohol was present. I strongly dislike anything that challenges my conscious sense of self. I am quite aware of the many levels of my own personal consciousness...I will venture much more than the average person...and yet I am certain there are levels of subconscious communication between individuals. I can breakthrough the static sometimes and hear it. Now if the voices you are referring to are submerged manifestations of anger and self denial that urge human sacrifice and other harmful actions...well those aren't voices now are they... they are repressed and corrupted thoughts fragmented into action ...these are not the kind of voices I am referring to. If I was to say I hear Samuel Clemens nitpick a passage I just wrote inside my head...or that Alexander Dumas told me once of a book he wrote which nobody read because he hid it beneath a boulder on a mountain...or the ever present rainbow riding Einstein of my dreams...do these voices require the silence of medication? I sure hope not.
"We make our monsters according to the armature of our fears"
Read where ,before Darwin, people were afraid of canine/human hybrids so Werewolves and their like were the monsters. After Darwin, people imagined ape/human hybrids so now we have Bigfoot and the like.
Yeah, but my concern is: when the sky high condo fees don't get paid because of unsold/unrented units and foreclosures, and maintenance gets deferred, and the area in general starts to decline because of rising crime and other buildings in the same situation, I assume most of these condo towers will have to turn into rental units. Will the city have to take over any of these? Will they just sit vacant for years? Will they become low or moderate income rentals? Or will they be relatively high income, but significantly lower than now (i.e. when deflation hits salaries and/or wipes out high paying jobs). What rents will be required to keep them from deteriorating, and can a small city like Austin sustain so many developments like that. Will the really big units be subdivided the way older luxury buildings from the 20s and 30s are subdivided into cheap apartments now? A larger city like San Antonio that had much fewer such foolish developments (to my limited knowledge) could probably absorb that kind of failure without creating a huge shock or blighted area, but I doubt Austin can (actually, most of SA is blighted already).
A quick look at today's WaPo classifieds suggests to me that DC condo prices (at least in Northwest) after sliding somewhat have returned to 2006-7 levels, or close to it. Missing: two or more years of appreciation. Maybe they're stabilizing (at a pretty high level, if you ask me).
And who will be rich enough to live in such glory?
Nobody!
Someday this war's gonna end...
eh, Chinatown.....1974.
Ahh, I think music of 1974 was better than the films of '74, though both were of excellent vintage....and also pepperred with duds and embarressments.
I liked Polanski's 200 The Pianist. I saw many analogies to this financial mess in how people do and do not "see" catastrophes slowly unfolding on the horizon.....and how the victims are left to fend for themselves in many cases.
Most of these new developments I've seen have ridiculously high HOA fees. These places have much lower values than older condos because of that.
Condo's are forever.....
YouTube - 007 Diamonds Are Forever(1971) - Theme Song
IGN chose it as the third worst James Bond film, over The Man with the Golden Gun and Die Another Day,[21] while Norman Wilner of MSN chose it as the sixth worst.[22] Total Film listed Mr. Wint and Mr. Kidd, and Bambie and Thumper, as the first and second worst villains in the Bond series (respectively).
Diamonds Are Forever (film) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Mutual of Omaha is pouring millions into completing its Midtown Crossing development just east of its headquarters complex. It will include restaurants, retail, a movie theater and 300+ condos. It is scheduled to open by year end - only problem, only three units have been pre-sold
I think this is more akin to a true market discovery action--let the auction determine the market-clearing price and then get on with the business of unloading inventory (probably at a loss, but those can be written off...). A win for the housing market, a loss for Realtors (TM)--what a bummer!
(Born in Arizona, moved to Babylonia, he was born in Arizona)
He's got a condo made of stone-a. . .
(King Glut)
I could relate to the guy struggling to hear the clink of the coin over the din of the piano...
Wouldn't it be great if the condo'ms were being sold under the proviso of "Price Discovery", in lieu of "Stimulate"? or "Jump-start"?
Nix, Terry, that should read:
Re: Mutual of Omaha is pouring millions into completing its Midtwon Crossing development just east of its headquarters complex"
that series really went to hell after "Russia with Love". Connery was great, but the comic touches never fit.
I liked, to paraphrase:
1. "they will never let 'that' happen", and
2. "They will come and rescue us".
anyone know if there is a condo glut on South Padre Island in Texas?
.......
Hack, again off topic but some years ago I talked with Milos Forman about shooting Jack in Cuckoo's Nest
and they had many go arounds about one more shot when Milos said print, and time and time he'd show Jack in
dailies that he nailed the scene... he also said Jack knew this was his Oscar to win or lose, hence the intensity,
recently I studied that film once more and there are a few scenes he doesn't sell well... ex, right before he strangles
Ratched...
that said, Brando showed in Godfather why he was Brando ...
edit:
agree with you Hack... Bond went to hell after that...
My mom doesn't want to sell her condo in Destin Florida because she "can't get what it's worth". I've been trying to get her to understand real estate is worth what it will sell for and that further declines are likely (Destin too is overbuilt) but no luck so far. Probably a lot of shadow existing inventory like that in addition to the monster construction.
Two weeks ago I and some friends were eating across the road from a large complex in Irvine CA that was originally supposed to be a condo complex but which was switched to rentals when they couldn't sell it. It's still almost empty though - few lights on. Guess the deluxe rental market is supersaturated too and the supply hasn't yet driven down the price enough.
yup, the suicide pact element of HOAs once a certain critical mass is lost is truly frightening.
YouTube - YOU EXPECT ME TO TALK?
Goldfinger is my favorite:
"No, Mr. Bond, I expect you to die!"
YouTube - YOU EXPECT ME TO TALK?
Just like the dollar;-}
But hey, nothing like a little insurance as the Fed desperately tries to pull out all the stops to just stop the dive.
My Way News - Social Security strained by early retirements
Boomers starting to hit the SS door early- no jobs for them!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Faior, I think a lot of the commercial loans underneath condos-turned-failed rentals" are in legal restructuring or foreclosure, which distracts from putting a leasing agent in place to get the stuff leased up...esp if there are no reserves for ongoing touch-up maintenance and not enuff income to pay for leasing expenses, utilities, etc.
Some just let em sit there til the foreclosure or restructuring is done.
Mutual of Omaha's wild kingdom?
JD,
I think a swimsuit was needed in that scene...
"suicide pact element of HOAs"
Add in Mello-Roos and some California condos may eventually reach negligible or zero value.
those new monstrosities near john wayne are known as the 'north korea towers' and are the subject of some funny threads in the forums on the Irvine Housing Blog - Irvine Real Estate and Resale Homes
"Mutual of Omaha's wild kingdom?"
In a way, true - the development is not in the best part of town . . . . that is not helping condo sales. They have two medical schools nearby and two major medical centers, but they are not priced for that crowd.
Miami gets mention, naturally. But the same is typical of Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Fort Lauderdale, Naples, Tampa, St. Petersburg, Sarasota, Fort Myers, West Palm Beach and a host of others.
Florida is condo country - apparently California doesn't go in for them to nearly the extent we do.
...more signs that the Rapture has been cancelled... but the Rupture is right on schedule!
theres no condo glut
its just weve reached a condo-minium
Condos are ideal for oldsters, california is more about family housing.
mp,
reply to you got
Comment by energyecon from thread 'The Fed and Subprime Lending: The Watchdog that Didn't Bark'
Part of the problem with the condo sales - from today's New York Post: "The unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52.2 percent -- a post-World War II high, according to the Labor Dept. -- meaning millions of Americans are staring at the likelihood that their lifetime earning potential will be diminished and, combined with the predicted slow economic recovery, their transition into productive members of society could be put on hold for an extended period of time."
Expect the kids to be moving back home
During 2008 in Vancouver, Miami condo developers were advertising condos at cheap prices in local newspapers.
I'm Marlin Perkins up here in the helicopter, and we sent Jim down to watch the hyenas in their natural habitat, making dodgy investments.
Ahhh, just saw the pig.
creditcriminalslovetarp, if you're still there -- yeah, a beautiful day in the neighborhood yesterday, and equally again today. We just had coffee and rolls on Harbor Beach and watched the outrigger guys launch their canoes for a tourney. September/October are the best time of the year in the Cruz, because the weather is good and the crowds are small.
Condomonium
Like pandemonium, but for condos
In 1999, the Rapture and hopes for the American Dream
In 2009, the Rupture and many Americans screamed.
Hahahahahahah.
For the youngins' that missed out on the 60's...
YouTube - Mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom
Add in Mello-Roos and some California condos may eventually reach negligible or zero value.
A friend of mine (also in LA) has developed an obsession with Vegas real estate. He has the "everybody should own; it's how you get respected and rich" mentality but not much money, hence the desire to own property he couldn't use and would have a difficult time renting. He's looked at near-Strip condos which I have guesstimated have negligible value due to HOA and taxes, although the asking prices are still 70K or so.
My condolences for condoning the construction of the Condor condos Condoleeze Rice, time to call in the condottieri to avoid the condign for your conduit's conduct
I know of at least one condo tower on South Padre that is going to get torn down due to the contractors walking off the job for non payment and it has sat for awhile.
When you think of governmental corruption, think of this area, we are the leaders here in South Texas. I am sure we are up in the top tier of bankster operations too..
Here's another strategy: split the development into part rentals and part sales, so you can sell a critical number to get FHA coverage of loans (I think it's 75% of the project).
http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2009/09/19/survival/134vp091709.txt
How you structure an HOA on a building that's got split ownership like this (imagine if structural repairs are needed under both the sold and rentals, or if the rental section goes BK...) is beyond my poor imagination.
"Two weeks ago I and some friends were eating across the road from a large complex in Irvine CA that was originally supposed to be a condo complex but which was switched to rentals when they couldn't sell it. It's still almost empty though - few lights on. Guess the deluxe rental market is supersaturated too and the supply hasn't yet driven down the price enough."
Similar development near me; still trying to sell them, but also leasing them. They want up to $3200 for a 3-BR. You can get a 4-5 BR house for that, or less, even around here. They've leased a few; not many.
The project's in trouble, mechanics liens all over the place, debtors closing in; I guess they figure if they cut prices too much they might as well call it a day. News flash: call it a day. Nothing's going to save you.
Unemployment for those seeking work between the ages of 16-24 has breached 50%.
I wonder what happens when a bunch of young men are shut out of an economic system? What happens when this portion of our population no longer has a stake in the status quo? What do you suppose their abundant energy, ambition, and aggression will be put towards?
HollywoodHack, thanks for reminding me of the Irvine Housing Blog. Here was a good post from there a few days ago:
Irvine Housing Blog - Irvine Real Estate and Resale Homes - Who Will Fix the System?
Paints a realistic picture of what we can expect of housing finance in the future, based on who is in control, and their history.
that said, Brando showed in Godfather why he was Brando ...
He may have been Brando but he was no mobster. I've know mobsters and Brando's depiction was closer to Mr. Rogers.
Hoopajoops LTD,
Video games. At least until their parents throw them out and ban sleepover dates. Then it will be anger usually only seen when drunk, but they'll be angrier because they can't even afford the liquor.
Fwhat about zee retirement condos, which store octogenarians?
Also see the q: "Are banks really deliberately delaying foreclosures in condos to avoid maintenance fees?"
Yeah, I know where you're going, and it's quite possible. If nothing changes at the top, it's in fact quite probable. And I don't expect things to change much at the top.
Kinda nasty to watch it happen. We had a summer student worker manning the front desk this summer (she's worked for our department for years); but we had to let her go last week, because it's a student job and she actually graduated this summer. So what's she doing with her new diploma? Scrabbling to get ight back in to our leaky boat of an institution through some other porthole, because there's nothing else out there for her.
Hollywood:
I expect you're right. My point, though, was that any calculation of Florida's downside exposure, not taking into account that the state has an unusually high concentration of condos, will understate conditions here.
Evidently hard if you live elsewhere to recognize the balance, as against SFHs, is so different.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Video games.
BINGO
One of the reasons for the glut of condos was the encouragement of cities to build them. Populated by childless young professionals or beyond-child-raising-age oldsters, they bring in a nice taxable population without the revenue-bleeding side-effects caused by all the resources needed by those damn kids. (Some cities went so far as to discourage 3- and 4-bedroom condos, knowing that smaller ones would encourage the professionals to move on if they made the mistake of fertility -- so no expensive concomitant school-building programs.)
OT to Avl Dao,
I finally got back and replied on the last thread. Just working around the house today (fortunately, it's not a condo, but that does mean there's more work to do).
Last time I left, I stayed signed in. This time I'm signing out. Be back in a while.
Social Security strained by early retirements
WASHINGTON (AP) - Big job losses and a spike in early retirement claims from laid-off seniors will force Social Security to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes the next two years, the first time that's happened since the 1980s.
My Way News - Social Security strained by early retirements
Been in the Ghetto lately?????
Already mentioned it above.
The de facto retirement age for most everybody now is 62, that is if you'd like to get some manna from heaven, before it runs out...
How is the city on a hill, anyway
Still got coprinus comatus sprouting in the lawns?.....mmmmgood eat'in
Oh, those places will be really really sorry when the banks give up
and they have to be taken back for failure to pay taxes and are totally
rotted 5 years from now.
If there are too few people there, then the maintenance goes into a
death spiral.
I've been posting about this for a while.
I think the legislature should be allowing for some secessions, in
the condo world, especially for those with independent buildings.
Say, 4 plexes with all 4 units current, can secede, arrange for their
own water/garbage bill, and either pay to use the pool individually
or not.
Even tho Florida is further along the road to Condo Apocalypse than
anywhere else, the legislature has done nothing.
In towers, perhaps this could be done by floor.
This can only be temporary, but it's the best I can think of.
New big box: Gluts-R-US.
C
What do you suppose their abundant energy, ambition, and aggression will be put towards?
Well, Obama plans to put even more of them in "college," where I suspect they will spend more time playing video games than studying.
The Quietest Trillion
Tranche Warfare: Mezzanine Lenders Stepping Into Foreclosure Fray - CoStar Group
Mezzanine debt holders have been particularly active of late, exercising their option to push overleveraged owners -- including many who purchased property at inflated prices at the height of the market two or three years ago -- into foreclosure in order to gain control of the property.
Also same site: Bank Watch: FBOP Ordered To Cut CRE Exposure in a Hurry - CoStar Group
FBOP Corp., an Oak Park, IL-based bank holding company that owns and controls nine banks across the U.S., entered into a cease and desist order with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
Related: YouTube - Shakira Performs "She Wolf"
Don't know where the 50% unemployment rate for 16-24 year old is from, but the BLS Empsit Employment Situation News Release
shows employment:population ratio of 16-19 year olds seasonally adjusted going from:
Employment report: 32.4% in Aug 2008 down to 28.1% in Aug 2009. Dropping 0.5% per month steady over that time frame
Household survey: 35.4% in Aug 2008 down to 31.5% in Aug 2009. Falling just as much, but more volatile
I read that the number of people over 62 (?) working went up half a percent.
America has 62.7 people working?
C
Ambrose again:
US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate prompting fears of double-dip recession - Telegraph
Well, Obama plans to put even more of them in "college," where I suspect they will spend more time playing video games than studying.
Leave it to the wall street journal to bitch when the feds finally cut Sally Mae off the corporate welfare tit.
pre-recession, the estimate for larger payouts than pay-ins was 2017. that was the the doomsday.
Wow. The increased claims matched with decreased payrolls have done it. I'm beginning to think that the artificial debt ceiling by congress could develop into one of the big stories
kidbuck, what's wrong with having a not-for-profit alternative for funding educational expenses?
Wouldn't know about the mushrooms, but the deer are doing fine; both four-legged and two-legged.
Morale is low among staff and faculty; don't know how much the students notice. In support of staff and faculty strikes and to protest increased fees and reduced classes, some of the students have barricaded themselves in the Graduate Student lounge, probably the most irrelevant facility on campus because grad students don't use it. But if you are going to protest for the people's revolution, why not do it from a big lounge with comfy couches, wifi, free printers, a pingpong table, a refrigerator, and clean restrooms. Che would be proud.
IOW, business as usual. Good 420 this year, as always.
"Statistics indicate that seniors move an average of 3.2 times during their retirement years. Senior households over the age of 50 face a move from a single family home to a condominium or apartment, to a retirement home and sometimes to a nursing home. Life Leases are ideally suited for providing housing to our aging population who may be quite independent today but may require support services tomorrow. "
It's getting bad for the middle class. Neither my brother in law nor sister in law can find meaningful employment with their fresh bachelors degrees (neither actually learned anything useful in college, the S.I.L majoring in psych and the B.I.L. in business), so they've been living at home - 18 months for the SIL, 4 for the BIL and having their expenses covered by their parents. Now that their mom has lost her job, all the income to support the 4 of them comes from their dad and his employment with a California city government. One wonders how long this can be sustained...
There is one ray of light... SIL just got engaged - to a guy with a minimum wage part time job.
Whenever someone mentions to me that 'our children are our future' I suggest they drive through the local university campus on a rainy day and observe the number of students who lacked the foresight to glance at the weather forecast and pack an umbrella.
However, if they've become clever enough to organize their protests in such a way minimize the character-building deprivation of life's little luxuries, perhaps I might have to re-evaluate my opinion. They make Che look like myopic buffoon.
Is there ever a time at that university when students haven't barricaded themselves into a building, chained themselves to a tree or otherwise been engaged with such silliness?
Google the 'shrooms......impossible to mis-identify, and darn tasty....If I have a totem organism, they're it.
(420?....I've been gone a LONG time.....)
In the land of the blind...
To cut deficit, Arizona may sell its Capitol | csmonitor.com
Piece by piece, Arizona is planning to sell off as many as 32 state properties to cover a historic $3 billion budget deficit. The state is in good company: California, Pennsylvania, and Connecticut are unloading state holdings, too.
Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer signed the bill that approves the sale of state buildings on Sept. 3. Now, the state is deciding what to sell.
Properties around the state that may be sold and leased back include the House and Senate buildings, the Arizona State Hospital, the Arizona Pioneers’ Home retirement facility (built a year before Arizona gained statehood in 1912), and Kartchner Caverns State Park.
If it sells its Capitol buildings, only employees of the state agricultural laboratory would have to pack up and leave. Others would stay where they are as the state government leases back the properties over several years, eventually resuming ownership when the arranged terms end. The state has placed a total replacement value of roughly $1 billion on all the properties.
“Although there may be problems with the symbolism surrounding this, I think that at the end of the day, it’s something that the state has to do,” Ms. Lopez says. “We don’t have any choice.”
Arizona’s official historian disagrees.
Winston,
they are the formerly middle class.
Now they are just another bunch with crappy college degrees.
A business degree? Should be out hustling up something- oh wait, he didn't learn how to start or run a business, just how to pass tests.
This collapse has legs, unfortunately.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Who eats 'shrooms for taste's sake?
Well, Winston, there were the times they were run down by tanks, or shot dead.
people who like shrooms that taste like something.....?
Arizona State Legislature- good republican budget- amounts to put it on the credit card and pay 9%!
Stupid.
But hey, it just might work to get to January 2011, when the dems take over the bag of flaming dog poop.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I think you are talking about Portobellos, and i'm talking about port of visions...
thanks MinMex for the Padre info...
Tougher appraisals make home sales harder : Business : The Buffalo News
Realtors and lenders say new appraisal rules, forced on the industry by State Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, are slowing down the sales and mortgage process, hindering deals that used to sail through.
The new requirements hold appraisers to higher standards, and severely restrict contact between them and lenders to prevent fraud.
And appraisers aren’t taking chances, opting for more conservative valuations of homes with no leeway, not even to accommodate seller financing desired by both parties to the deal.
“The appraisers are being very close to the cost,” said Miriam Treger, a branch manager for RealtyUSA. “Part of what a house is worth is what somebody is willing to pay for it. If a house is worth $130,000, is it worth $132,000?”
As a result, what was once considered too easy — getting a higher sales price or loan amount approved than what a house was originally appraised for—can now be quite difficult.
noob goldberg,
I don't pack an umbrella to this day because I don't mind the rain (disclaimer: I grew up in Vancouver)
others may not want to carry an umbrella for the brief 5 minutes outside between lectures, during which there is no good place to store the umbrella
if you want to criticize the youth, as every generation has done for as far back as I can see, you'll have to do better than carrying an umbrella
condo shooms litter Arizona.
The HOAs are broke, in both condos and SFR subdivisions. Lots of forclosures in both. My room mate works for a condo management firm, her paycheck didn't clear for 3 days last payday. Not a good sign.
Here's coverage of the Atwater Place auction held recently in Portland, Oregon:
Atwater Auction Recap: 40 out of 41 Ain't Bad - The Waterfront Journal - Portland Waterfront Condos, Portland Waterfront real estate, Portland Waterfront homes, Portland Waterfront Realtor
Note the additional, unsold shadow inventory.
Price of Admission Rises in Mortgages
Paola Kielblock, a national product specialist at Fairway Independent Mortgage Corp., in Madison, Wis., said that as a result, lenders will no longer be able to refinance as many customers as possible on just a quarter-point dip in interest rates.
"It's a huge deal especially because FHA business has increased so substantially in the last year."
"Note the additional, unsold shadow inventory."
++++++++++++++
'The Shadow No's'
Looks like no big changes in Germany:
Merkel's party leads in German vote: exit polls - MarketWatch
I think you credit them with undertaking the analytical exercise and arriving at the decision to not bring an umbrella with them. As someone who recently left the realm of higher education, I think you're being far too charitable.
Fallschirmjägermeister
I know this is off topic but did anyone read Frank Rich today in the Times, easy call to compare Biden to Ball,
but he had it wrong on JFK, he thought they could win using a Terry and the Pirates strategy (special forces,
Colby's infiltration schemes, etc) plus, the NVA was ready to take the South, their first big success was at Ap Bac...
in '62... had they not been so Borg-like in their planning they could have chased ARVN all the way to Saigon in
early '65 and then and only then was USA faced with the choice. JFK kept saying all big issues had to wait on his
re-election such as Nam, John Paton Davies, etc.
.......
Metaphorically, Americans never carry umbrellas because it never rains.
noob goldberg,
I would say there is a much greater divergence between the best and worst of the younger generation. Add on to that the turning of university into the universal solution for young people as manufacturing as been shrinking. Look at a faculty that does self-selection like engineering over time if you want to compare likes to likes.
As someone who recently left the realm of higher education, I think you're being far too charitable.
As someone who owns a small inexpensive collapsible umbrella, I agree.
hollywoodhack thanks for link to irvine housing blog,its a keeper. i didnt know that they using houses as atms,thought that was recent. 1998 wow.
Heh, I learned something new today. Thanks JD. I wonder if their code holds anything for us today:
Broward, I couldn't agree more...
Ho Chi Minh wrote Truman 8 times in the 1940's, and Harry ignored him every time...
(from Wiki)
In 1941, Hồ returned to Vietnam to lead the Việt Minh independence movement. He oversaw many successful military actions against the Vichy French and Japanese occupation of Vietnam during World War II, supported closely but clandestinely by the United States Office of Strategic Services, and also later against the French bid to reoccupy the country (1946-1954). He was also jailed in China for many months by Chiang Kai-shek's local authorities. After his release in 1943, he again returned to Vietnam. He was treated for malaria and dysentery by American OSS doctors. In the highlands in 1944, he lived with Do Thi Lac, a woman of Tay ethnicity. Lac had a son in 1956.
After the August Revolution (1945) organized by the Việt Minh, Hồ became Chairman of the Provisional Government (Premier of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam) and issued a Proclamation of Independence of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam that borrowed much from the French and American declarations. Though he convinced Emperor Bảo Đại to abdicate, his government was not recognized by any country. He repeatedly petitioned American President Harry Truman for support for Vietnamese independence, citing the Atlantic Charter, but Truman never responded.
Umbrellas?
Who carried an umbrella in College?
I didn't go to college in fricking Cambridge, Merry frickin old England.
Nobody in North Philly ever carried an umbrella under the age of sixty.
The ruins of the umbrella factories were just down the street.
Simple minded comparison.
Might as well ask about suits, the ruins of the Botany 500 factory were passed commuting to my suburban grad teaching gig.
Showing your age indeed.
Someday this war's gonna end...
So what did that get "em? A country in the shape of a pie, cut by the Victors.
noop, nope-all the youngins' can relate to is the Jägermeister part...
Did check on the employment:population of 16-24 year olds, ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/lf/aat3.txt
It's 51.22%
Only 40.2% of 16-19 year olds, and 74.4% of 20-24 year olds are judged to be in the labor force though. If you consider only of those in the labor force, the U-3 for that age group is 12.84%. That's from the household survey, which does report a higher employment among that age group than does the survey from employers. Probably because younger people are more likely to be work for employers that don't get surveyed. Normally the employer survey reports higher employment than the household survey, because it counts jobs not people.
I can't disagree with any of those points, EHP. And I am optimistic about youth of today; if I look back I would have often, if not more frequently, looked quite foolish. But it doesn't mean that we don't take them to task on it and interrupt them when they begin rationalizing stupidity.
The best lessons I got as a youth were when someone old and grizzled interrupted my flowing rationalization of some silly action with the words "you're being a dumbass, smarten up."
I drank Jagermister while defending it against the Russians. tasted like medicine then too.
By my estimation, one out of every five or six people, judging by the number of people jammed under each one.
As a freshman I rarely carried an umbrella, but I had one perpetually in my backpack by the time I was in grad school. The total size of a collapsible umbrella is approximately 1 inch by 1 inch by 6 inches. Considering that most kids have a laptop, three textbooks, their ipod, water bottle, writing utensils, etc etc etc, why would you not just add an umbrella to that mix? Might even give you an excuse to meet a pretty girl.
Well that goes without saying, and I've never submitted otherwise.
i would have preferred that the savings from eliminating the FFELP subsidizes go towards increased grants or work study programs and not towards increased debt issuance.
Do you think that it is a coincidence that those who believe government intervention in health care will lead to communism are such strong advocates of expanded government power under the Patriot Act.
Two guys hanging around in a cave have been able to get us to voluntarily give up our freedoms something that the Soviets with their thousands of nuclear warheads were never able to do. Do people honestly think that the PTB are looking for these extended powers to go after Al Qaeda?
Fallschirm is taken from the German word "Regenschirm", as in falling umbrella.
his post this week is just as dour:
Money figures show there's trouble ahead - Telegraph
Private credit is contracting on both sides of the Atlantic. The M3 money data is flashing early warning signals of a deflation crisis next year in nearly half the world economy. Emergency schemes that have propped up spending are being withdrawn, gently or otherwise.
I think Bernanke needs to review his "It" speech, specifically the parts where he claims that the structural and political differences in the US would ensure that "it" couldn't happen here.
I can see that you are in a different time and place reference.
Nobody brought a laptop to school- that would be asking to be robbed leaving school- small bags, a drop wallet with $10 in ones.
But I had a great urban school experience.
I did have a kick butt overcoat to wear in the rain- a surplus East German Officer's coat I picked up for $11 bucks.
If you looked like a target- you were robbed- if you looked like you had crap, and were mean enough to keep your crap- no problem.
You get on that Subway at 1am to take that ride to Broad and Cecile B. and you are either tough enough, or not. Suburban kids were just so much lunch money to most of the natives. I guess I was not.
Someday this war's gonna end...
If you looked like a target- you were robbed
Same reason to not own a house.
Basel Too,
The whole society is geared towards the established older and wealthier population -- granted they do form a majority of the voting population. The growth from debt has not only flat lined in total, but it has shrunk in the household and corporate sector. The government can only support a contradicting change for a limited period of time. I do agree with your suggested redirection of spending, but I view this reshuffling as a temporary thing. Now we must reevaluate, and not by choice. Either tuition and fees fall or the number of students do. Either wages rise or the cost of housing falls. Either equities fall or the pool of buyers do.
An umbrella?! You people must not be Oregonians. Carrying an umbrella here in Portland would be tantamount to wearing a sandwich board saying, "I'm not from around here, am I?"
I have a good, dependable raincoat and an almost-waterproof bag, both of which have held up for more than 3 years now, and I haven't carried an umbrella since I was six years old. Umbrellas are for places where the rain stops. Here, you just assume it will always be raining and dress accordingly.
tomorrow I'll throw up a new vid that is only for the CR crowd...
I must admit I rarely carried an umbrella in college, challenging the rain gods and gritty hardbitten suburban yuppie kids at UCSD; but the rain was warm,...and laptops were a long long way into the future.
Don't be silly - just look at the non-seasonally adjusted not in labor force numbers - SA U-3 won't tell you the story...
"Metaphorically, Americans never carry umbrellas because it never rains."
Sadly, I find this attitude among many of my co-religionists of a conservative bent. There is no climate change - it is a scam by socialists. There is no danger of pandemic flu - it is a scam by socialists. The financial crisis was caused by the poor, who obtained loans they didn't deserve through the intervention of socialists.
Three conclusions can be drawn from this:
Bad things never happen.
The witches have all turned socialist.
Bad people are trying to frighten us.
These are, I believe, the assumptions of a scared and insecure petit bourgeoisie that feels the sand slipping out from under its feet, and itwould like to blame anyone unable to threaten it.
The Holy Father does not labor under these illusions, but his understanding is considered by these people to be non-binding.
oedipa maas,
Exactly my feeling, you get used to a little rain
energyecon,
I just wanted a quick and easy comparison. Would have had to open up prior releases to see the NSA data over time.
crazyv
this person doesnt this person thinks they went after extended powers, a q was the excuse.
Pavel, considering that scapegoating, as a concept, is basically superstitious in origin, why would these people whom you describe not be susceptable to it?
EHP,
Yes, they seem to like it that way, no? Also, saw your second post downthread which got into the labor force question a bit...
I had my fill of righty-tighty-gawdalmightys hunting scapegoats during the Section 8 Years, a lifetime's supply in fact.
Pavel, the thing I find remarkable about this is that I should think it remarkable.
pavel.chichikov
You labor under the assumption that rain is a bad thing.
Anything you can do in the sun, you can do in the rain.
Plus, rain waters all kinds of plants which make the micro-climate more enjoyable when the sun does shine and provides fresh water for drinking.
Furthermore, it cleans the streets and air while providing amusement to kids building miniature rivers or adults sliding through the mud.
Balance is important, but the balance is not between good and bad. It's between good and good.
Speaking of toys going cheap-
Quarterhorse for anyone?
craigslist | Page Not Found
$1250- dirt cheap.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Asked, and later answered my own question of what happens to birds during a hurricane
EHP,
They're pretty good about leaving. Unless caged.
YouTube - The Beatles - Rain
Is saying there is a 'vast right wing conspiracy' a form of scapegoating after we have been conditioned for the last 8 years that conspiracies are tin foil and don't really exist. Maybe saying there is a vast right wing conspiracy is a cover for more systemic problems on both sides of the aisle. For the last 8 years Islamophobia was encouraged by the Right (and Left) and the media...now there is a process underway to make the trusty Islamophobe Right appear racist...now there is a phobia of the Right Wing being promoted...we just go from one phobia of one group of people to the next...driven by media reporting and analysis
"Pavel, considering that scapegoating, as a concept, is basically superstitious in origin, why would these people whom you describe not be susceptable to it?"
barfly, I think we have a difference of opinion as to the substance of religious faith. But may I point out that none of us is immune from scapegoating,especially when we're frightened.
burnside,
"Pavel, the thing I find remarkable about this is that I should think it remarkable."
I know what you mean. I have, however, been smashing my head against this wall for some years on a blog whose proprietor is a personal friend of mine. In religion we could not agree more. Otherwise...but that's the way life can be.
Actually, if you want a simple observational test for how unthoughtful my peers can be, you should try listening to their conversations on the bus from school. I've heard some real doozies. Overheard recently: "Oh sweet! I got this used book and somebody already highlighted it for me, so I only have to read those parts. Score!"
The book in question was a NOVEL.
Certainly, we can be very, very, stupid, but umbrellas don't quite tell the tale.
Richard Meier designed a glass tower overlooking Prospect Park in Brooklyn....now prices are 40% off original asking, only 25 of 99 units have sold, and more than 20 million in ccontract deposits have been abandoned. And this is a high-end, architecturally significant building...or was, when it was designed and marketed. Now, it provides schadenfreude for the neighborhood.
Glass Half Empty - NY Times
"You labor under the assumption that rain is a bad thing."
EHP, I'm probably missing the metaphor, but I love rain as long as it doesn't go on for 40 days and 40 nights.
When I was a young whippersnapper, we had Cliffs Notes, which were like a 25 page summation of a book, a way to cheat and not read the genuine article...
Nowadays, youngsters have Cliffs Notes that are even shorter in length, You can find them all over the internet, and rarely do they have any depth deeper than a page or 2~
NPR is re-broadcasting an excellent episode of Planet Money. The journalists responsible for creating and popularizing this are Ira Glass, Adam Davidson, and Alex Blumberg.
This American Life
As I listen tho this, I realize that these guys are not one step ahead of any other financial journalists out there - they are 10 steps ahead. I m deep inside the financial industry - I design and price and manufacture many of the products you guys talk about all the time here - and these guys really get it. I think HHack already gave a reference for this episode and these guys yesterday, but I gotta say, these guys are worth listening to.
CR, I know you have contact with Alex and David, and I hope they know that there are people inside the industry who think they are spot on, and I sure hope that more people hear what they have to say.
'More than 20 million in contract deposits have been abandoned.' You mean stolen.
But may I point out that none of us is immune from scapegoating,especially when we're frightened.
Pavel, not to unduly belabor the point, but this raises another question, perhaps moot. If God is their solace and protector, why are they frightened? Please don't feel compelled to answer, unless you so choose.
Well, no. Nobody held the gun to their heads. There
are big billboards of attys promising to get deposits back here
I've seen. For the most part there is no justification.
No metaphor on my part, but you used the lack of umbrellas as a metaphor implying that rain was an apparent but ignored problem. I said that rain is no problem at all.
Sewage flooding the streets and people refusing to put on boots because they deem it perfectly acceptable would be a more apt metaphor. As for 40 days and nights, I've only been through one stretch of rain here that lasted 33 days before a couple hours of sunshine and then another few days of rain.
Ah hah!!
I was never assigned a book so awful that I felt I had to
resort to Cliff's Notes.
Does the mezz debt holder thing mean that the argument that
no one knows who controls a loan actually has some legs?
patientrenter,
I never knew you had a professional interest in the topics at hand. Would you mind sharing what part of the financial universe you are near? If it's something frequently talked about here, that's got to be MBS? Just curious, not planning to send unmarked helicopters your way
But may I point out that none of us is immune from scapegoating,especially when we're frightened.
Sounds like someone has a little something to hide... Do you have a confession to make? I THINK YOU DO
My son got a psych degree; he actually got a relevant (tho miserable) job
trying to keep dopers on their methadone. Now he is in grad school.
First, living in the desert I LOVE RAIN. I will go out and stand in it for fun.
The NPR show was great. I heard it yesterday, think they should play it everyday until everyone gets it.
But he does call himself Evil. . . . .
"If God is their solace and protector, why are they frightened? Please don't feel compelled to answer, unless you so choose."
It may be that they don't really believe that.
Asphaltistan!!! Grrrrreatttt!!
If a project is not finished as contracted, isn't that a justification to get your deposit for construction back or does fine print cover that somehow...
" Would you mind sharing what part of the financial universe you are near?"
Can't. But these guys at NPR (Alex and David on the content, and Ira on the relevance and direction) really get it.
lawyerliz,
1. Evil Evil could be considered a double negative
2. When they want to talk with you, they send a pair of middle aged agents in a Ford Taurus and ask you to coffee
"Sounds like someone has a little something to hide... Do you have a confession to make? I THINK YOU DO"
A confession to you? Please consult the Catechism of the Catholic Church to understand the Sacrament of Reconciliation. Google will point you to it.
patientrenter,
Don't be a tease, there's no way you can't give a general indication. I'm not asking for your position, but the category of products you deal with. Could be public, could be private sector. Could be office secretary, could be senior manager. We won't know, I just want to know from where you might have insight
It may be that they don't really believe that.
Thank you, Pavel. That's kind of what I was thinking.
Liz-
Good for him!
My son got a psych degree; he actually got a relevant (tho miserable) job
trying to keep dopers on their methadone.
One of the most political relevant scenes in any movie was in Sid and Nancy
with their methadone administrator telling them that are blowing it, and they needed some healthy chaos to bring down the system.
A confession to you? Please consult the Catechism of the Catholic Church to understand the Sacrament of Reconciliation. Google will point you to it.
Stop interfering with my attempt to scapegoat you before I myself am scapegoated.
barfly, saints are people who really believe that. Other people take a run at it and fall down all the time.
pavel,
I kind of dig the Catholic Church (well, as much enthusiasm as somebody that believes in life before death can muster, that is...) and I know you share the same deity as the righty-tighty-gawdalmightys, but there is an awesome schism between the clans that lay claim, no?
"Stop interfering with my attempt to scapegoat you before I myself am scapegoated."
Hoops, a large part of my spiritual life is in trying to stop blaming other people for the unpleasantness I've experienced. There are memorable passages in scripture to that effect.
saints are people who really believe that
That is why all of them should be on anti psychotic medication.
Sorry, EHP, but on the internet I can say what I really think. I certainly cannot do that in my professional environment, so I must keep a strict separation. I get to see and evaluate asset portfolios with a very broad range of assets, although that's not the main part of my job. That's probably the best I can do.
Other people take a run at it and fall down all the time.
so there's no real hypocrisy involved. I think I get that. Again, thank you, and I hope you don't take any remarks of mine in any way personally. I respect you very much.
:pavel,
I kind of dig the Catholic Church (well, as much enthusiasm as somebody that believes in life before death, that is...) and I know you share the same deity as the righty-tighty-gawdalmightys, but there is an awesome schism between the clans that lay claim, no?:
JD, a memorable aphorism by a German bartender that someone told me about: Mann schlept sich durch. Maybe untranslatable, something like: People can barely haul their awkward selves through life.
They exasperate me, I exasperate them. Rain comes down on everyone, the just and the unjust, and who is able to judge the difference between them? Who should?
umbrellas. . .
In South Florida it is usually raining so hard you're soaked anyway,
or raining so lightly, why bother?
"I respect you very much."
I respect you very much too, barfly. It's moving, what you say above.
"saints are people who really believe that
That is why all of them should be on anti psychotic medication."
Actually, they tend to be able to function when most others are on the verge of collapse.
, could be senior manager. We won't know
Got some hiring and firing control, so not the lowest level. And I think I'm guessing or remembering something about fiduciary responsibility to private parties,...wealthy private parties, as a matter of fact, as referenced by the rigorous caution.
The source of schlep!! Via Yiddish, I would guess.
I'm fascinated why none of the commenters has asked "why?" that condos are not included in the realty statistics. It seems like an obvious thing that this greatly distorts ownership, sales, defaults and rental numbers. Oh, and CRE and MBS numbers too. Also
"The source of schlep!! Via Yiddish, I would guess."
I'll ask my wife. Her German is good, and she has a German etymological dictionary.
After hurricane Andrew, a friend saw some birds with their
feathers blown off.
Sorry, I gave the wrong reference for that Planet Money NPR radio show. It's a re-broadcast of a show one year ago, but with updates. I gave the internet address of the show one year ago. The current version, with the updates, may be found at This American Life
I wanted to look at the tower link, but it wouldn't load.
pavel,
Agree with you on that one. Get tired of people who go off the beaten track need medication theme...I don't want your normal. Let me have my voices, my muse as long as I am not a threat to myself or others. Everyone is addicted to something, and this concept of normalcy wears thin.
On another note...I still feel strongly that mankind does have an innate moral code--very least a responsibility to protect the tribe from those who prey. This requires judgment. If a wolf walks among the flock...duty calls. I still find the idea of waiting for God to sort it all out inherently wrong, when we are supposed to have knowledge of good and evil.
The condo bust is a great thing for NY renters...so many empty towers, so few trustafarians able to pay. Williamsburg got condo fever big time...
"A working-class neighborhood became a bohemian theme park, which in turn became a fantasyland for luxury-condo developers. Now, littered with half-built shells of a vanished boom, Williamsburg is looking like something else entirely: Miami
The Bust of the Williamsburg Condo Boom -- New York Magazine
New fossil find increases evidence that some dinosaurs were birds, far earlier than previously believed.
Maybe this gives hope that mankind can survive some major extinction events: we should just grow feathers.
Everyone judges everything all the time. You can't
. Is patient right or wrong? Etc etc.
live without judging. Who will I comment on? How
long will I stay on CR? Do I want another slice of
And if you can't judge other peoples' behavior you
may well get tangled up in something it would be
best to avoid.
A friend just bought a condo in San Padre for around $300,000. I think it's 2 bed 1.5 bath, so he may have overpaid a tad. Not sure though... the key is probably to look at foreclosures.
Which I will away to do.
A feathery t-rex would be very amusing.
Can't believe there aren't more people wanting to live in condos in Wilmington and Jersey City. Hoocoodanode?
A feathery LawyerLiz might even be more amusing....
What I find most intriguing about the idea of an afterlife, is the idea that there couldn't be a pre-life, where we just hang out, waiting for our chance to be somebody.
It's just as plausible, and yet it's never talked about by the religious powers that be...
[imagine walking into your lawyer's office and finding (Sesame Street's) Big Bird behind the desk.]
Hey, our condo shells are completely built. There are a few holes in
the ground which won't be filled for a while. But generally the things get
finished, to look at them from the outside.
How do you know I am not already feathery?
Liz: so, they are bando ready?
.
Some buyers of the glass tower condo apparently couldn't get their financing but the question is does the financing fall through because the project wasn't viable in this market(started in 2005) thus lenders see too much risk in lending to a failed development. Meier didn't even meet with bankers financing the project until 2009 according to the Times article and is ready to try another project in the area.
Liz, a brief lookup: Schlep is most likely German first, since it is in compounds, like the word for tugboat.
Yep.
Someone posted a picture a few days ago of a Gables home on a
canal which was so occupied. A big one too.
You in the Queen City, DH?
I don't want your normal. Let me have my voices, my muse as long as I am not a threat to myself or others.
People react to voices in their heads all the time, often to the great harm of themselves and others. How do you know, and more important, how do we know, you won't do something crazy?
Hey, LL, is pineapple upside-down cake anywhere on your menu for this Sunday? We disagree on many things, but you know I eat vicariously off your table, and right now I'm thinking dessert
If T-Rex had feathers, would we know? Some scientist think that chickens are their closest relatives. All we have are bones and the assumption that these were reptiles. Were they slow, cold blooded creatures or more active, warm blooded creatures? I've seen opinions but little proof of many of the conjectures about dinosaurs.
barfly,
The voices in my head tell me that you are wrong.
I am thinking of apple-raison cookies, or perhaps
pumpkin pie.
*how do we know, you won't do something crazy? *
You mean "harmful",...doing something crazy is baked into the cake for all of us, even normal people.
Rajesh, lol!
Brett Favre still has it as a Viking.
Haha, there is no normal.
I haven't kept up in the last couple of years,
how is the warm blooded dinosaur debate coming
along.
sdtfs, semantically, you are correct.
and right now I'm thinking dessert
With my Sun morning coffee, I picked up a Gâteau au Chocolat from Saint Honore Bakery for a mid-afternoon treat with whipped cream.
This is my contribution to stimulus spending in stumptown.
On the business section of NPR, some idiot was talking
about trading "down" by exchanging home cooking for
McD's .
Well, that's down all right.
They will consider themselves lucky. Let's see... $20,000,000/99 is just over $200,000 per unit!
I'm shocked that people paying $1.7M (instead of $2.8M) think they received a bargain. Oh, your link of the voyeurs looking into the building was quite funny!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
There is a chocolate cherry cake in my fancy cake book that
I might make for my mom's 86th Birthday. Things in that
book are medium hard.
I bought it just for the pineapple upsidedown cake, my old
recipe book being destroyed in Andrew. The old cookbooks
are the one thing I still miss from hurricane Andrew stuff.
I'm sure for him, "home cooking" means Appleby's.
"With my Sun morning coffee, I picked up a Gâteau au Chocolat from Saint Honore Bakery for a mid-afternoon treat with whipped cream."
Ah, that does sound good. Let me look up Portland RE to see when I can move to Portland (or should I make it Vancouver)? But, as Liz points out, nothing beats good home-baked, and I'll take those apple-raisin cookies as soon as they come out of the oven
Nice to see the old man handle being on his own 20 with a minute and a half to play and no timeouts left, needing a touchdown to win.
Must be desert time all over the world, i'm having cookies and milk while i wait for the first coat of primer to dry on my double front doors. Now will the voice in mt head tell me what color to paint them.
What color do they have to harmonize/contrast with?
Rajesh: there exists numerous fossils now that show in mineralized deposits various kinds of feathers (different stages of evolution) that the two-legged, 3-toed dinos had feathers. Check the link above to Scientific American story.
what color to paint them
white never gets dated....
JimPortlandOR
That's a cool café. Now build that highspeed rail already so I can enjoy that food and your relatively warm weather over lunch already. It's BNSF's right of way, has any money been budgeted for that hyped up plan yet?
More on the planned USD weakness
U.S. dollar seen caught in G20 meeting's crosshairs
| Reuters
the dollar is seen as most susceptible to damage after some at the G20 meeting questioned the stability of the dollar in light of its status as the world's reserve currency.
The dollar rose last week, in part because of equity market weakness, but it has fallen 4.3 percent this quarter against a basket of major currencies.
The dollar's weakness of late has not come because of U.S. economic weakness, but because of emergent recovery around the world. Investors have used the dollar as a funding currency to buy riskier assets around the world.
The U.S. economy is rebounding, largely due to increased borrowing and government stimulus, while world leaders expressed concern that these trends cannot be sustained in the long term.
...
World Bank President Robert Zoellick said the United States should not take the dollar's status as the key global reserve currency for granted because other options are emerging.
In excerpts released on Sunday from a speech he is to deliver on Monday, Zoellick said global economic forces were shifting and it was time now to prepare for the fact that growth will come from multiple sources.
...
Analysts were quick to note that without concrete steps, the pledge amounts to lip service and it is unlikely any countries would bow to G20-imposed rules on how to run their domestic economies.
Even so, such a plan would be a marked shift and could signal a longer-term move away from the dollar.
"In the long run, I think they want another reserve currency, whether it's the Special Drawing Rights or the Chinese yuan," said Kevin Chau, currency strategist at research firm IDEAglobal in New York.
"For any country's currency to gain that kind of credibility and trust, it would take years of development," he said.
That said, the greenback fell to a fresh low against the euro and dropped below the key 90 yen-per-dollar level this week.
MaryAnn,
http://www.sherwin-williams.com/visualizer/index.html
and
http://www.marshandparsons.co.uk/images/images2/Sales/red_door_knocker_Sales.jpg
Red front door
Hmmm, they divide the 1.7 million in half again, and some
people will come out to become voyeur fodder in that
building. That white kitchen is awful.
IN EVENT OF MOON DISASTER:
Fate has ordained that the men who went to the moon to explore in peace will stay on the moon to rest in peace.
These brave men, Neil Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin, know that there is no hope for their recovery. But they also know that there is hope for mankind in their sacrifice.
These two men are laying down their lives in mankind's most noble goal: the search for truth and understanding.
They will be mourned by their families and friends; they will be mourned by the nation; they will be mourned by the people of the world; they will be mourned by a Mother Earth that dared send two of her sons into the unknown.
In their exploration, they stirred the people of the world to feel as one; in their sacrifice, they bind more tightly the brotherhood of man.
In ancient days, men looked at the stars and saw their heroes in the constellations. In modern times, we do much the same, but our heroes are epic men of flesh and blood.
Others will follow, and surely find their way home. Man's search will not be denied. But these men were the first, and they will remain the foremost in our hearts.
For every human being who looks up at the moon in the nights to come will know that there is some corner of another world that is forever mankind.
-- William Safire
Rest in peace, Wordsmith
I've got myself 100 year old solid wood doors that came out of a church Liz and I've gotta match them up with a deep gray that looks like burgandy from a distance. I love to paint and have the patience of Job.
If the dollar stops being the reserve currency, the demand for dollars will go up as the new (fictional) reserve currency drops like a stone. From a developing country perspective, the most important attribute of the a reserve currency is that it be weak,so that it's decline disguises all the money printing you are doing.
MrM wrote:
This is why T's are still selling... because there's a belief that a recovery will allow the Fed to unwind it's monetization and enable DC to cut deficits. The next leg down will dispel that idea.
Grey is very hard to deal with. It takes on the color of the big surfaces' opposites
on the color wheel when used for trim. I had a pink wall with grey trim that
regrettably ended up looking baby blue.
You want to go lighter, for a pleasing contrast. I like bright colors for doors.
Rajesh,
What if reserves just dwindle? Trade has dropped a lot and reserves were arguably oversized before it dropped. About 2/3rd of reserves were in USD. Reallocation is just one threat
Is Robert Zoellick part of the 'vast right wing conspiracy' too?
EHP: Amtrac will have to do for a visit from the north for longer than I care to think about - but you can always make it a long weekend in portland since we have lots of local-food oriented places to make you fat with four meals a day (and NOT Taco Bells Fourth Meal).
According the Bloomberg, 3-mo T-bills are selling at a 0.1% discount to face value. I guess that 0.4% annual return is because of the dangers of inflation.
Most greys have some color tone to them, which become obvious only
after you paint. Also shoes which are grey have to be chosen carefully.
Yours has a bit of burgundy. You could play with that using a lighter burgundy.
If reserves just dwindle, then the U.S. trade deficit must be declining and everyone seem to think that is a good idea (at least publicly.)
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
America loses another treasure.
Very sad.
Thanks Liz and EHP, it might turn out to be red since I love red and burgandy. Character and simplicity is what I like and I kept the same door handles since they already have that patina on them.
Rajesh,
I'm not expecting the USD to fall for now. I'm saying upon exiting crisis mode, there will be a surplus of USD which will bring inflationary forces from currency devaluation when it's too late and undesired.
" The force - I suppose I have to say the image - of the dinosaur, as it was understood by the nineteenth century, comes through here, terrifyingly. It is like reading Conan Doyle's "Lost World." The giant Irish elk (a mammal and, anyway, not that amazing - just a big moose) shares pride of place here with the big lizards, as he does in Doyle's story. The reason, I suspect, is that it wasn't so much the distant, scary past that drew the nineteenth century, but the simple specter of giganticism, bigness itself. They wanted their dinosaurs to loom over them, as their tycoons did. In the "lost World" of Conan Doyle, in fact, the dinosaurs are constantly being called Gothic. They were interested in big, whereas we are interested in mean. (Was this because bigness was their problem - mass armies, mass society, massiveness - whereas meanness is ours - small wars, horrible murders?) The difference between the old Parisian and the new New York dinosaurs is the difference between an industrial dinosaur, big and dumb and looming, and the postindustrial dinosaur, swift and smart and a scavenger. We make our monsters according to the armature of our fears. They wanted what loomed over them to be huge, stolid, immovable, and a little slow, like J. P. Morgan or Mr. Frick. We want them now to be smart, fast, mean, ugly, and wearing expensive suits, like Barry Diller or Rupert Murdoch."
Re: dinos with feathers; wouldn't be surprised. Isn't the current wisdom that they were warm-blooded, most of them.
Been down at the beach watching the pelicans lately; they go back 40 million years and if there's any bird you could see as a relative of dinosaurs, they are it. Big primitive-looking things with bright yellow eyes, giant beaks, and flexible necks. Sometimes down at the wharf one will perch on the railing and let you get within a few feet. It's an experience.
Call me in five years when the crisis will be nearing an end and ask me what my opinion of the dollar is. We are not "over the hump". Another panic is around the corner and if I knew when, I'd become very rich and I certainly wouldn't tell you.
MrM wrote:
The U.S. economy is rebounding
TJ, please, that's what I quoted but please don't make it look like my personal view
What's the interior/exterior designer market like these days? I would assume they feel it more than anyone. I know via family friends of someone who was down in LA doing the ultra high end interior design work. Oprah high end.
My curtain lady, on the very middle end, said she was busy, but not
crazy busy like she used to be.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Good glod, I hope she keeps her paint-stained hands out of literature.
EHP;
"What's the interior/exterior designer market like these days?"
Don't know about that, but here's a tell. A story in today's LATimes pointed out that houses by well-known architects are no longer bringing significant premiums at resale.
MrM wrote:
Sorry. I thought about that after I posted it but got distracted by another post.
My mother allowed she would eat my cookies, if I ever got
my butt off of here.
How's the 'war on terror' going to go with a weak dollar? Is a strong military based on a strong dollar? To advocate a debasement of the dollar while calling for strength to defeat enemies seems problematic. Some evolving policy positions are somehow contradictory. Internationalism conflicts with nationalism. It's inherently contradictory in issues of national self defense.
I should weed another rose too.
Rajesh,
I take it one step at a time. Right now I'm expecting USD to rise, because the crisis is not near over. Five years does seem like a long time frame given the pace of things, even if by occasional sprints. When it comes time to reconcile accounts: Financially, the USD is worth almost nothing. Probably a net debtor and constrained government cash flow. Whatever currency the US does use will have a great value based on market size, natural resources, education, and other enduring real economic factors. Think of Russian Rouble, but in a world where all the other countries were doing much worse at the same time.
At least the Romans had the sense to loot and pillage along
with their invasions.
Austin's old downtown warehouse district is gone and built over with about a dozen high rise condos (the last 3 are almost done, including the tallest building in the city at 55 stories). There are dozens of new condo buildings in the 4 to 10 story range, and countless old apartment complexes that have been converted (or reconverted since some of them have been condos before in previous r/e boom/bust cycles). The condo fees in the high rises alone are almost what I pay in rent, not to mention taxes. Even if they were giving them away, I doubt I could afford to live downtown (I'm not rich but not badly off either, and 10 years ago I lived in that area very cheaply). Many have resorted to renting out unsold units, but the rents for small apartments are often well over $2000/mo. This is not Manhattan or SF. It's not even a Dallas. Where do they think all those people with all that money are going to come from?
What I want to know is who will be living in those places 5 or 10 years from now and what sort of condition those buildings will be in.
A highrise condo building in Phx downtown is renting really cheap. Under $900.00 for a 1 bed, utilities included. The building has full security and lobby staff. Quite a come down from the hayday prices of $1,500.00 plus.
Cheronda Guyton is fired by WF:
Wells Fargo fires executive accused of using bank-owned Malibu home - Los Angeles Times
merchants of fear, Robert Zoellick certainly has what I would consider a neo-conservative background and credentials:
Robert Zoellick - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I suppose that to include him as part of "a vast right-wing conspiracy", whether or not such a construct actually exists, would hinge upon what you thought of the objectives of the World Bank. What do you think?
'Think of the Russian rouble...' It's that bad.
If you build it, will they come?
Field of American Dreams
Quite a come down from the hayday prices of $1,500.00 plus.
Still too much for unemployed people to pay.
jussumbody,
Try $800/sq ft lofts in a 96 year old former telephone exchange building. The area around it will be nice, but that will depend how quickly the surrounding area gets redeveloped given a housing bust. The upsides are near a subway, possible future light rail line, near the sea wall, and all the people/parks/amenities that will eventually come with future development. The project seems fine to me, but the price is double what's sensible.
So there's your answer. The people who will live in such buildings are ones that will want to buy in a few years at half the price, and maybe less if there is still too much supply or incomes fall. First we need to wait out the barrier of unwilling, but eventually forced sellers.
EvilHenryPaulson wrote:
Who's going to finance that future development? Is there a pressing need??
"Cheronda Guyton is fired by WF:"
"a single team member was responsible for violating our company policies. As a result, employment of this individual has been terminated."
Now y'all just forget that ever happened. Kthxbye.
I can't recall if we looked a this before, but it's a decent article about an enduring difference between RE price trends since WW2 vs. over the next 20-30 years:
Don't bank on your home as an ATM - Los Angeles Times
lets name a tv series "Happy Days" and the lead character will be named Ponzi
Embattled East Palo Alto real estate empire teeters on collapse
Embattled East Palo Alto real estate empire teeters on collapse - San Jose Mercury News
Another trashed apartment is the last thing Page Mill Properties needs right now. After using other people's money the past three years to buy and improve nearly half the rental units in this hardscrabble community wedged between the bay and the gleaming city of Palo Alto, a lot more than spray paint has hit a wall. Last month, with the real estate market in the dumps, the group failed to make a $50 million loan payment to Wells Fargo. And when a San Mateo County judge placed its approximately 1,800 units under receivership, it left the fate of Page Mill's controversial real estate empire in jeopardy and many of its working-class tenants fearful about their future.
The drama has been brewing since 2006, when Page Mill, headed by longtime Bay Area property investor David Taran, began acquiring buildings on the city's west side. The group snapped up about 1,800 units, roughly half of the city's rental stock, city officials say.
CalPERS, the California Public Employees' Retirement System, helped fuel the buying by investing $100 million, and Page Mill got a quarter-billion-dollar loan from Wachovia, now part of Wells Fargo. CalPERS, under pressure by city officials and activists in East Palo Alto to end its involvement with Page Mill, would not comment. Neither would Wells Fargo, saying only that "the safety and quality of life of the tenants at Woodland Park is of primary concern to Wells Fargo."
Orwells Fargo really knew how to lose money, hand over fist.
barfly,
The idea of a 'vast right wing conspiracy' is probably just a tool for partisan politics. The idea of a small compartmentalized organized elitist group on the so-called Neo-con 'Right' with certain geopolitical goals is more believable and can probably be proven. Zoellick was a managing director of Goldman Sachs. The World Bank provides leveraged loans to poor countries and has focused on poverty reduction. Now environmental groups are involved in the lending practices of the World Bank(Wiki) to give it a 'Green' emphasis. The bank offers investment loans and development loans. I guess I would like to know more about their 'investment' loans and how they reduce poverty. Critics have said debt from international banks have lead to problems because of high interest which becomes hard to pay when the global economy goes through its cycles. Stiglitz has criticized the Wolrd bank and the IMF. Some critics say these banks practices are actually harmful to economic development...
"Orwells Fargo really knew how to lose money, hand over fist."
Not to worry. All will be bailed. Thank goodness the next generation of taxpayers is going to take on the burden of all these bailouts. Thanks, suckers!
Orwells Fargo, The next bank in staging.
Here we go...
Los Angeles Times -- U.S., Nation, Washington D.C. News - latimes.com
Is it not a given that our Country will not be forced to house the unemployed this coming winter.I'm in the deep South where days in January and February can have hard freezes. We have seen little change in rent or housing because we had been in freefall for several years with no building of any kind.
EHP - speaking of Vancouver, I was looking at a condo today that has similar units in the building for sale asking 1.2 million and the landlord is asking $2,700/mo. That is a 453 multiple on rent to price. Good times to be a renter up here in the land that the housing crisis forgot....
TJ and The Bear,
Yup, there will be someone developing around there. Land prices, labor, and materials all fall to make the construction viable. The city/area's development is restricted by zoning, geography, and transportation. When prices fall we get more migration into the city from suburbs and other provinces/countries. Vancouver will be bringing inventory:sales down until 2012, but it'll be in an up cycle after that. A housing bubble/bust cycle is the natural state of the market here because of the development restrictions.
edit: and fwiw the area is one of the more in demand because of its location. The Olympic village is down the block and so there are things just finishing up like an awesome community centre w/ daycare. info @ Southeast False Creek
"Vast" or not, Clinton got it right when he said "their agenda seems to be wanting him to fail."
I didn't see that Clinton produced any actual evidence of this conspiracy so it's tinfoil.
Some critics say these banks practices are actually harmful to economic development...
merchants of fear. that has been my impression also, after learning about SAP's, or Structural Adjustment Programs, that forced the privatization of nationalized resources, among other things, for paying back essentially usurious loans, and thereby putting even more pressure on already strapped economies. I have no love for either the World Bank, or the IMF.
Well if these so-called 'conspirators' want O to fail maybe it's because they think his ideas are not viable especially since the debt burden is out of control. You don't have to be on the Right to see the system is basically insolvent. O may fail because the govt' was broke because of wars, bubbles, waste, rigged contracts, funnky loans, funky bets on loans, etc.
I didn't see that Clinton produced any actual evidence of this conspiracy so it's tinfoil.
He answered a question. He wasn't asked to produce evidence.
You must have missed the Republican Politicians who said it was important to beat Obama on health care so that he would be wounded too badly to accomplish anything.
Want quotes . . . go look them up.
I'd rather clean the garage than discuss politics.
Yeah barfly...I hope the U.S. won't have to borrow from either bank in the future as our status as world reserve currency nation and policemen drops...think the U.S. could get a good interest rate?
bernankepalooza,
You can get landlords down to $20 per sq ft. in condoland.
If you have a car, and have a good reputation, you can rent a whole house from an effective speculator who isn't using it in the $2000 range or a separate basement suite for half that. Kits apartments are insanely priced. In general, much cheaper to rent than buy -- we haven't burst yet. It's always funny the first time you show someone that the conventional wisdom of owning > renting doesn't hold true.
I'd rather clean the garage than discuss politics.
Thanks for offering.
There's some pundits and some vocal Republicans on the Right that the media quotes to attribute to the vast conspiracy...I mean some sentiment can be found on both sides of the aisle...the criticism of the central bank is growing...the public opinion on the war(s) and more war is becoming negative as results are hard to see, etc. The media blows up the divide between sides...there's growing consensus on some issues and it's worrying the efforts of lobbying groups and their supporters for past failed policies.
You must have missed the Republican Politicians who said it was important to beat Obama on health care so that he would be wounded too badly to accomplish anything.
Want quotes . . . go look them up.
In a July 17th teleconference call with activists opposing Obama's health-care initiative, (junior Senator from South Carolina, Jim) Demint (R) said, "If we are able to stop Obama on this, it will be his Waterloo". He added, "It will break him..."
The New Yorker - 9-28-09 - Getting to No pg.34
Yeah...these people against O on health care will later wish they had national health maybe when the SHTF.
+10
back for a moment...in reference to voices and how do you know...in some cases, just like any addiction...will power is at issue. If I hear a voice or have visions from a muse...that does not rob me of my own self and my own responsibility. I have never used a voice as an excuse for wrong action. I will take this a step further.... how many of you use alcohol as an excuse to let down your inhibitions...read the studies of those who thought they were being given liquor and how behavior was changed, and in fact no alcohol was present. I strongly dislike anything that challenges my conscious sense of self. I am quite aware of the many levels of my own personal consciousness...I will venture much more than the average person...and yet I am certain there are levels of subconscious communication between individuals. I can breakthrough the static sometimes and hear it. Now if the voices you are referring to are submerged manifestations of anger and self denial that urge human sacrifice and other harmful actions...well those aren't voices now are they... they are repressed and corrupted thoughts fragmented into action ...these are not the kind of voices I am referring to. If I was to say I hear Samuel Clemens nitpick a passage I just wrote inside my head...or that Alexander Dumas told me once of a book he wrote which nobody read because he hid it beneath a boulder on a mountain...or the ever present rainbow riding Einstein of my dreams...do these voices require the silence of medication? I sure hope not.
Burnside said:
"We make our monsters according to the armature of our fears"
Read where ,before Darwin, people were afraid of canine/human hybrids so Werewolves and their like were the monsters. After Darwin, people imagined ape/human hybrids so now we have Bigfoot and the like.
People are interesting.
Jim
Yeah, but my concern is: when the sky high condo fees don't get paid because of unsold/unrented units and foreclosures, and maintenance gets deferred, and the area in general starts to decline because of rising crime and other buildings in the same situation, I assume most of these condo towers will have to turn into rental units. Will the city have to take over any of these? Will they just sit vacant for years? Will they become low or moderate income rentals? Or will they be relatively high income, but significantly lower than now (i.e. when deflation hits salaries and/or wipes out high paying jobs). What rents will be required to keep them from deteriorating, and can a small city like Austin sustain so many developments like that. Will the really big units be subdivided the way older luxury buildings from the 20s and 30s are subdivided into cheap apartments now? A larger city like San Antonio that had much fewer such foolish developments (to my limited knowledge) could probably absorb that kind of failure without creating a huge shock or blighted area, but I doubt Austin can (actually, most of SA is blighted already).
Maybe this gives hope that mankind can survive some major extinction events: we should just grow feathers.
Or brains that can understand why naked CDSs are a bad idea.
A quick look at today's WaPo classifieds suggests to me that DC condo prices (at least in Northwest) after sliding somewhat have returned to 2006-7 levels, or close to it. Missing: two or more years of appreciation. Maybe they're stabilizing (at a pretty high level, if you ask me).