ac, the NAHB index shows its just getting worse - housing is not "stabilizing". I suspect the other indicators will show further deterioration over the coming months ... no wonder the Homies are getting hurt.
As tempting as it might be to buy the homebuilders trading at ~5x earnings, I can't help but think that the next shoe to drop will be the excess inventory they are stuck with. It could get very ugly if they start dumping houses for losses. They could fall another 30% and still only be at 1x book value.
even while stating the opposite, the toll brothers must have lost confidence a year ago, when they did a massive sell-off of their company stock. now, check the insider selling of citygroup. maybe we'll find out a year from now, that they've lost comfidence in the banking industry.
i still do not get it. Here in Sarasota florida the building of condos, and homes is going non stop in an almost feverish manner. I have been watching 2 recently completed 12 story towers on busy highway 41 here in Sarasota and day or night i look into the open bottom floor and do NOT see one car parked and not one light in the condos above and yet a third ugly tower is now under construction. What gives?
The low traffic numbers indicate few new buyers which may cause unsold inventories to increase quite rapidly over the summer. If so consumer confidence and the economy may weaken fairly sharply. The resulting drop in consumer inflation expectations and possibly the TIPS spread could lead to interest rate decreases by late in the year.
realist,
If I were a bank holding mortgage backed securities, questionable loans and adjustable rate mortgages at a time when bankruptsy and foreclosures are breaking records, I'd be nervous as hell to. The risk of systemic collapse in the banking industry is becoming more alarming. All it'll really take to tilt the global financial sector into a depression is the collapse of a few high profile hedge funds...
This news seems to be having an effect on housing stocks:
TOL: Basic Chart for TOLL BROTHERS INC - Yahoo! Finance
ac, the NAHB index shows its just getting worse - housing is not "stabilizing". I suspect the other indicators will show further deterioration over the coming months ... no wonder the Homies are getting hurt.
Best Wishes.
As tempting as it might be to buy the homebuilders trading at ~5x earnings, I can't help but think that the next shoe to drop will be the excess inventory they are stuck with. It could get very ugly if they start dumping houses for losses. They could fall another 30% and still only be at 1x book value.
even while stating the opposite, the toll brothers must have lost confidence a year ago, when they did a massive sell-off of their company stock. now, check the insider selling of citygroup. maybe we'll find out a year from now, that they've lost comfidence in the banking industry.
i still do not get it. Here in Sarasota florida the building of condos, and homes is going non stop in an almost feverish manner. I have been watching 2 recently completed 12 story towers on busy highway 41 here in Sarasota and day or night i look into the open bottom floor and do NOT see one car parked and not one light in the condos above and yet a third ugly tower is now under construction. What gives?
The low traffic numbers indicate few new buyers which may cause unsold inventories to increase quite rapidly over the summer. If so consumer confidence and the economy may weaken fairly sharply. The resulting drop in consumer inflation expectations and possibly the TIPS spread could lead to interest rate decreases by late in the year.
REAL Simple. 1031 exchange money the equity has past the demand.
realist,
If I were a bank holding mortgage backed securities, questionable loans and adjustable rate mortgages at a time when bankruptsy and foreclosures are breaking records, I'd be nervous as hell to. The risk of systemic collapse in the banking industry is becoming more alarming. All it'll really take to tilt the global financial sector into a depression is the collapse of a few high profile hedge funds...