I think there are like 96 hunters in California, and the rest of us frequent supermarkets.
Well, that explains a lot about what is wrong with California.
Hunting on land or in the ocean is part of real life, not printing more imaginary money, or issuing IOU's.
I walk a lot of miles in the mountains all the time, and my efforts are more along the lines of not trying to kill anything, as i'm a guest in their home, just passing through...
Around here, the "hunters" are small-time commercial fishermen. Got a real macho crowd down at the harbor, kind of guys who'll shoot a sea lion who's trying to raid their nets. Money's on the line.
The House is crammed: tier beyond tier they grin
And cackle at the Show, while prancing ranks
Of harlots shrill the chorus, drunk with din;
‘We’re sure the Kaiser loves our dear old Tanks!’
I’d like to see a Tank come down the stalls,
Lurching to rag-time tunes, or ‘Home, sweet Home’,
And there’d be no more jokes in Music-halls
To mock the riddled corpses round Bapaume.
If you're not prepared to give me your undying love, then don't read the rest of this post. Have you ever phoned a company to get stuck in a phone menu tree jungle? Do the prompts take 5 minutes to list all the options? Don't you hate that? Next time find out the unpublished codes to skip the queue first. Phone Numbers, Shortcuts & Customer Service Tips - Companies Worldwide - gethuman.com I'm not affiliated with it, but I just used it for the first time in a long time. Even if the company you're looking for isn't on it, most call centers are outfitted with generic codes so it is easy to guess. Sorry, I just felt great after skipping to an operator within 2 seconds, after giving up on the menu that took 3 minutes to get absolutely no where but a never-ending disclaimer
The other day I heard a US Senator on the radio regretting that we were not bombing woman and children in Afghanistan, because they were helping the Taliban.
The other day I heard a US Senator on the radio regretting that we were not bombing woman and children in Afghanistan, because they were helping the Taliban.
It is still early, so relax; this is what is for ..... This can go on for several ours, so stay calm, take some deep inhalations ... let the fine/smooth muscles unwind, plenty of time. Nonetheless, I'm (one of) the current winner and I'm the one with anxiety (at this point).
Need to get away from it all? Try 400+ square miles all to yourself in some of America's most pristine and remote wilderness.
That's what you get at some of these preserves -- the most remote and least visited national parks in the United States (and its territories). But you don’t get all that grandeur to yourself for nothing: Some of these parks are accessible only by boat, only by plane, or at the very least only by a long haul in the car.
If you’re going to make the trip, the weekend of August 15-16 is a good time to try; it’s the last fee-free weekend this year at U.S. national parks, when entrance fees are waived. (Even the Obamas are planning to take advantage of the free pass.)
So, here they are, your least visited national parks, listed from least visited to most (though even the most visited only sees fewer than 90,000 visitors a year -- a far cry from the 9.4 million visitors to Great Smoky Mountains National Park, the most visited park in the U.S.
I was a little late, but come on, I've been bitching, moaning and complaining for a week that FDIC is going belly up and that the rate of failures would slow down ... these are awful times, I was just trying to find a moment of happiness in this unfolding possibility.
In other news:
First we calculated the total troubled assets at a bank. That adds together three elements: loans that are 90 days or more past due; loans that are in "non-accrual status," meaning the bank is no longer adding interest from the loan to its income; and real estate that the bank already owns, usually from foreclosure.
Recession driving white collars to local pawn shops Business Examiner
“We are going to see a spike from now to the end of the year in foreclosures as we take people out of the running” for modifications or other alternatives to foreclosing, a Bank of America Corp. spokeswoman told the Journal, adding that government pressure to stem foreclosures had reduced their foreclosure sales to “abnormally low” levels. :
If you're not prepared to give me your undying love, then don't read the rest of this post. Have you ever phoned a company to get stuck in a phone menu tree jungle?
Well, I don't know about undying love, but that site is damn useful.
I have blanked on the name - really. I remember the state, but I won't say. Probably some Catholic diffidence about detraction. I felt ashamed for the man, and just plain ashamed.
In states with lax bank regulation,
Bankers feel much aggravation,
When the Feds come to call
And with unmitigated gall
Put an end to their rank speculation.
For Nova,
OT, but you mentioned in earlier thread that your BIL has breast cancer....other Marines have it too...from exposure to toxins at Camp Lejuene?
Link, for you.
Goldman Sachs May Boost Pay, Stock Awards on Performance, Citigroup Says Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may pay employees more this year because of the firm’s “phenomenal” results, though a larger portion will come in restricted stock to help align compensation to long-term profit, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts.
Of course, GS would argue that they really did not take on any risk to generate those “phenomenal” results, just used its Rolodex - it was all rather clear and obvious, really
Speaking of punishing the TBTF crowd:
.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dalton Chiscolm is unhappy about Bank of America's customer service -- really, really unhappy.
.
Chiscolm in August sued the largest U.S. bank and its board, demanding that "1,784 billion, trillion dollars" be deposited into his account the next day. He also demanded an additional $200,164,000, court papers show.
''While these numbers look good, they are not as good as they look,'' Mr. Seidman said of the profit figures. ''There are several areas we need to keep a careful eye on.''
For example, Mr. Seidman said that bank failures were likely to continue to be very high next year. Through the end of last week, 213 banks had either failed or needed Federal aid, already breaking last year's record of 203 failures.
Though Mr. Seidman predicted that number would fall to 170 institutions in 1989, it would still represent a considerable drain on the assets of the F.D.I.C., which insures deposits up to $100,000.
The F.D.I.C. chairman said that the cost of the failures would produce the first annual loss in the agency's 55-year history. The fund began the year with $18.3 billion in reserves, which have now been reduced to around $15 billion, he said.
Going to war right now on a 3rd front, would be like starting a new war, just as the helicopters were leaving Saigon for the last time in 1975...
Except if it was Iran it wouldn't be a 'third front'... it would be more like a 'front consolidation'... take two small wars and turn it into one big one... Iraqiranistan... hell might as well take on the Pashtuns in Pakistan and call it the Pakiraqiranistan War... from Indus to Euphrates. Alexander would even gasp...
Way back when, before this financial crisis, this is how the pawn business worked:
A pawnbroker would give around 50% of what he could wholesale off, whatever it is you were trying to pawn.
Let's say you have a set of Snap-On Tools which are worth $1000 retail, and $550 wholesale, the pawnbroker would lend you around $250 @ 25% interest (Ca.) and of all the loans that pawnbroker made, about 85% (redemption rate) of the people would come back and claim their stuff out of hock, by paying off their loan.
++++++++++
That was then, this is now...
There is virtually no wholesale market for anything now (except precious metals), so that same set of Snap-On Tools might find a buyer @ $350, so the pawnbroker will lend out around $125.
The redemption rate is closer to 50% now, and as a result pawnbrokers don't want to end up with a back room full of junk, so they are a lot pickier than they used to be, about what they lend on.
And keep in mind that pawnbrokers are about the last place people can get quick money for stuff~
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 8:26 pm
Except if it was Iran it wouldn't be a 'third front'... it would be more like a 'front consolidation'... take two small wars and turn it into one big one... Iraqiranistan... hell might as well take on the Pashtuns in Pakistan and call it the Pakiraqiranistan War... from Indus to Euphrates. Alexander would even gasp...
Hope none of these people played Risk as kids,,,
Who do you think the Indians, Russians and Chinese would side with?
Better than holing up in Oceania with that massively huge +2 (+3) army bonus per turn. Besides, why would it make a bad idea in Risk? The only way they could retaliate is go through Europe, Africa, or Alaska.
In that context, I find it a little puzzling why the Russians are not returning a favor and arming the Talibans against the US, especially with hand held sams.
Mr. Seidman said that in the six New England states, New Jersey and Florida, they had seen an increase in loan delinquencies. ''But they are not at alarming levels and not like the Southwest,'' he said.
"We had to be able to value every kind of loan and real estate holding imaginable," Seidman recalled in his 1993 book, "Full Faith and Credit." "We needed to know exactly what an acre of desert between Phoenix and Tucson was worth."
In that context, I find it a little puzzling why the Russians are not returning a favor and arming the Talibans against the US, especially with hand held sams."
Evoking a so-called "Tobin Tax" on financial transactions, the G20 said it had asked the IMF to report back at its next meeting on the options being nationally considered to get the financial services industry to shoulder a share of the costs.
...
"We will likely have a formulation that makes clear that we are dealing with the question of who pays the costs of such a crisis," Merkel told ARD German television.
"We ask the International Monetary Fund to make us proposals on this by the next meeting. One possibility is a financial market transaction tax," she added.
Sounds like glorified mopping after burst bubbles instead of trying to prevent bubble creation in the first place (although still better than simply forgiving and asking not to do it again)
Climate change will fix that for most of their snowy days. (Northern latitudes are expected to warm substantially as the jet stream moves much further north - parching the bulk of the southern US west)
Agreed with Pavel. Russia is already fighting with Islamists within their own sphere of influence, and they would have no way of ensuring that their version of Stingers weren't going to be used to bring down their airplanes.
.
On the bright side, it would mean they are arming the enemies of their quasi-enemies which is so stupid that only the CIA & Congress would consider such a plan...
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 8:32 pm
"Who do you think the Indians, Russians and Chinese would side with?"
The Indians and Chinese aren't really the critical problem.
If the war were expanded from Pakistan to Iraq, these countries would be involved-
"There is virtually no wholesale market for anything now (except precious metals), so that same set of Snap-On Tools might find a buyer @ $350, so the pawnbroker will lend out around $125."
Sounds like it's time to go shopping for some quality tools. Snap-On is good stuff.
Can any sentient person believe only ONE US bank is insolvent today?
Sadly, yes. I'm starting to think that I should take my gut feeling and subtract one 'cause I seem to be overshooting it each week. The FDIC's general is in a political pissing match with the Treasury, and she doesn't want the use those funds.
Climate change will fix that for most of their snowy days. (Northern latitudes are expected to warm substantially as the jet stream moves much further north - parching the bulk of the southern US west)
I think I speak for all Canadians when I say "don't tease me".
There is virtually no wholesale market for anything now (except precious metals), so that same set of Snap-On Tools might find a buyer @ $350, so the pawnbroker will lend out around $125.
Was that another vote of support for Silver, JD? I could find a pawn shop who would take my silver before taking someone's set of Snap-On tools? Eh? Eh?
We do have a choice on our military aims in south asia: come home with our tails between our legs, or come home home with tails cut off and missing some other limbs.
We really need a PIG here and faith that FDIC will do its job versus allow fraud to continue and thus provide weekly examples of non-regulation (again).
Sheila was probably gonna close down 4 pipsqueak banks worth a crummy 400 million in total, but those Gawjan politicians must have rubbed her the wrong way, methinks.
We do have a choice on our military aims in south asia.
You would think that our politicians would learn their lesson and stop going into SE Asia with such half-assed attempts. How many times do we have to get pwn3d by a man making 10 USD/yr killing our troops with devices made for 10 USD?
There is nothing more pathetic than some woman coming into a pawn shop wearing about 2 ounces of sterling silver jewelry that she paid $400 for, and the pawnbroker offers her $10.
That's the b!tch about living in a condo -- no space for storing things -- otherwise I'd be trolling the pawnshops & Craigslist for all sorts of quality tools and such. I'd love to be putting together a home machine shop ala mp.
In that context, I find it a little puzzling why the Russians are not returning a favor and arming the Talibans against the US, especially with hand held sams.
jd that 100 is the problem, if they get by that it will be easier but 100 banks failing and georgia bringing it to the 100. wow tpbp wouldnt like it. the ga policitians probably told her they "would have her job" maybe the west coast will have their failures.?
edited because it didnt make sense even to me the way it was.
*> Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 8:38 pm
About the only people eager to get into wars nowadays are 3rd world countries and us.
Says a lot...
*
China is dependent on imported oil. Russia's income is dependent on the price of oil. India doesn't like the Pakistanis. Finally, the geopolitical balance of power would hand on the outcome. As such, these parties would feel compelled to be involved in one way or another. I'm not advocating this war or escalation of the present war. I'm just asking that if, as was suggested, the war was expanded, how would the other parties line up. I think that the probable lineup would make the war even less winnable than it is now-
The electrician who came by today to fix the electrical hook up to my laundry room told me that our currency was about to collapse and that we'd see rioting in the streets and civil war soon enough.
Nobody hocks precious metals @ pawn shop, everything they take in is mostly jewelry that gets melted down, if it doesn't get redeemed, and then gets sold for 96% of spot price after being turned into a dore bar.
OK, even the gov is running out of money. Sheila is broke, FHA is broke, Fannie and Freddie are not slovent. Ben has been printing nonstop and it isn't enough.
When I was in high school - long ago - first day of deer season was a school holiday.
The guys would bring in their new rifles to show off before season started.
That's the b!tch about living in a condo -- no space for storing things -- otherwise I'd be trolling the pawnshops & Craigslist for all sorts of quality tools and such.
Pawnshops around here know that the contractors are in trouble but they also know that we are not... so I haven't seen an appreciable decrease in tool cost.
The electrician who came by today to fix the electrical hook up to my laundry room told me that our currency was about to collapse and that we'd see rioting in the streets and civil war soon enough.
Now that is scary. When your cab driver starts giving you stock tips...
Maybe so - one thesis I read was that the terminal wave we will see a sharp dollar rally accompanied by a bond market rout - if Treasuries are being sold hard, a sh!t ton of dollars will be in demand...briefly
.
still thinking that one over
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 8:54 pm
America isn't sick of war yet, because we've been largely shielded from it's horrors...
We'll learn~
This has nothing to do with my question to dryfly. Why have you gone down this route?
I don't understand the people who still back the Afghan war. Since I lean that way I read the blogs; and the comments there are way foreign to me. In response to post that Americans are turning against Afghan war:
Simple - Americans do not trust 0bama to prosecute the war to victory. If you asked the same folks if we should win or lose in Afghanistan, they’d overwhelmingly choose win.
Maybe if the American people didn’t have an indecisive poodle sitting in the White House changing his mind every few hours, they might have more faith in the mission.
Commit to win (that means ass stompin’ victory throughout the region- not just A-Stan) or leave. Quit putting our troops at risk over a campaign slogan.
Worst legacy of the Persian Gulf War, Somalia, and our many interventions of the 1990s that we still can’t shake: the American people expect that the US Military is just going to go in, kick ass, take names, and come home in a very short amount of time, and, if like in Somalia, the going gets tough, well then, we probably shouldn’t have been there in the first place - the Vietnam legacy.
If any of these people looked at the war objectively they would see:
- All we've accomplished is setting up a gov't that's crumbling
- Our mission has been static for 8 years
- If we leave, the Taliban will come in; how is that different from 9/10
- We've accomplished very little in 8 years!
Trying to "bring democracy to Afghanistan" is like using Playboy magazine to get your stud to mate...
My late father's company shut down for the first three days of deer season. Too much impact on their Workers' Comp from sudden rashes of back injuries if they didn't.
As to Risk, any experienced player knows that the key is always Iceland.
And yeah, I hear that conversation about currency collapse around here, too. Not in huge amounts, but J6P with any consciousness is aware of what we're doing.
Ran across a very sharp (and decently well-off) business acquaintance yesterday, and when talking about the business climate he immediately warned to watch out for the next leg down. We exchanged a knowing look on that one.
The electrician who came by today to fix the electrical hook up to my laundry room told me that our currency was about to collapse and that we'd see rioting in the streets and civil war soon enough.
Was it out of the blue, or part of a conversation? Because if that's his normal opening line, I can imagine quite a few long awkward pauses with his normal clientèle.
Oddly enough, I mentioned a while back (yesterday?) that I was listening to a few bright political lights for a while. I got to talking with one of them over a beer, and although I don't think he was fully on the side, he was definitely a lot more pragmatic over a beer. Basically he had been shorting commodities in the middle of last summer and did alright, and our conversation about the potential for serious difficulties in October, re: dollar collapse and serious market pull-back, put us in relative agreement as to what might be expected.
I guess my point, if I have one, is that some of the political string pullers are quite aware of the potential, but the only way they'll say it is over a beer in a dark corner of a pub.
So who is gunna call BB and invite the great bearded one out for a beer?
The electrician who came by today to fix the electrical hook up to my laundry room told me that our currency was about to collapse and that we'd see rioting in the streets and civil war soon enough.
Okay - which one of you guys is hoops electrician?
Was it out of the blue, or part of a conversation? Because if that's his normal opening line, I can imagine quite a few long awkward pauses with his normal clientèle.
Well, I was going to buy a washer and dryer and asked his opinion on various brands. One brand was made in the US. I said I'd prefer that brand, as I'm not sure how easy it will be to get parts from china, given the economic climate. That set it off. Thinks the US Dollar is going to be eliminated, too, replaced with some kind of currency. He was an electrician from a local supply store that is family owned - 8 members of an extended family running the place. Real salt of the earth. Ex CHP officer. Said riots and cities burning.
The Amero or Special Drawing Rights... I suppose not much of a difference...
I didn't inquire too specifically, because I felt that if I did, I would contaminate his opinion. I was interested in what he was saying, unadulterated by my prompts.
I live near Camp Lejeune and it is so sad to see young men shopping at Walmart on the electric wheelchairs. So many marines have been scarred for life for no reason at all. BTW, many more marines are against these stupid futile follies. The world won't learn until a country's leadership goes to prison for needless wars--same as bankers--no improvement without mass perp walks.
The Russians are doing something more clever than arming the Taliban to get the US. They are allowing us open and notorious supply routes through their territory. As the Khyber Pass gets choked off, it is more needed. The Afghans remember the Soviet atrocities, and see us effectively allied with them. Taliban recruiting magic.
Heh... yesterday on the House floor Rep Defazio was pitching for a "CPI-E" COLA adjustment for the elderly... other Rep's were complaining about closing car dealerships...
I don't think they got the word we're broke yet...
The $500B requires a systemic risk determination to draw: Approval by the boards of the Fed and the FDIC, as well as consent of the President (with advice from the Treasury)
////Basel Too (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 6:10 pm replyIgnore userThe $500B requires a systemic risk determination to draw: Approval by the boards of the Fed and the FDIC, as well as consent of the President (with advice from the Treasury)
I don't think they dare use the "systemic risk" line again. Too many people now know what that means.
Sheila will wait until all of the above beg her to take the money and continue closing banks.
Hoops,
I would suggest 2 things that led to the electrician suggesting that:
- Price of copper. Every electrician it keenly aware of it, when the price goes up their margins goes down
- National debt. A lot more people are aware of it now. They hear trillion for the first time in their life, the debt, the increases in spending, and the cuts in services
josap wrote;
"Sheila will wait until all of the above beg her to take the money and continue closing banks. "
Interesting - I wonder what would happen if a decision was made to stop closing zombie banks.
Would we start to see runs? Or would nothing happen, at least for a while? Unless a run started, maybe no one would notice. They must have gamed this scenario by now.
The only countries we've been able to suck into our hegemoney are Panama and Ecuador, Panama has used Yanqui Dollars for almost 100 years, and Ecuador for about 10.
"My wife just told me that 80% of the campgrounds in TN are occupied by homeless people. "
I can personally confirm that nearly 100% of the free campgrounds in northern california have become full-fledged, permanent homeless person communities. They have lots of dope, though. I rolled up to one around a month ago and just drove 7 hours back home rather than camping. Definitely not a good vibe.
That was his big beef. That and the destruction of our manufacturing base. I tried to tell him that if our dollar blows up, our manufacturing base will recover almost overnight, but I only started on that talk a little bit.
I don't think that keeping zombie banks open would cause a run per se.
Most people don't pay serious attention to the bank ratings/stats and it would take a particularly nasty blowup to cause a run. And by that time, the silent run has brought down the carcass. I suspect that the OCC/pertinent regulators would permit the use of various accounting gimmicks to keep the flesh on the bones.
Saw a trailer today for "Zombieland" and would like to nominate Woody Harrelson for chairman of the Fed.
He was an electrician from a local supply store that is family owned - 8 members of an extended family running the place. Real salt of the earth. Ex CHP officer. Said riots and cities burning.
I don't dismiss this fellow's view; I really appreciate you passing that to us Hoops.
But is anyone getting a little weirded out that it's really really hard to find a single person who really truly believes in this rally? What's that say? And what are the ramifications of a huge portion of investors who are ready to bail at a moment's notice? What's that say about those investors who are already trying to position for it?
Would we start to see runs? Or would nothing happen, at least for a while? Unless a run started, maybe no one would notice. They must have gamed this scenario by now.
Why would there be a run? Only one reason - they don't have cash to make claims & J6P learns that... if FDIC makes sure they have cash on a day-to-day basis & get backed stopped by Treasury & Fed as double sure J6P always get his cash... it would result in a much lower cash drain at FDIC in the short run - allow them to jack up fees & 'premiums' to try and back fill their losses.
Of course that only 'works' if they are out of the woods so losses don't grow & multiply - do they REALLY think they are out of the woods? If they do think that then it would explain the go slow...
Meanwhile J6P will leave his money where it is until there is evidence he can't get it - then everyone in Indianapolis & Bakersfield & Tampa storm their respective banks simultaneously - so make sure the cash is ready to hand out.
As most people have less than $250,000.00 in the bank, why would there be bank runs? If my money is safe,or I think it is safe, I am not going to close my checking account.
No clue what happens to lending if they just stop closing banks down.
homedad;
"I suspect that the OCC/pertinent regulators would permit the use of various accounting gimmicks to keep the flesh on the bones."
Well, to the extent that the regulators have already forced the hot money (like brokered CDs) out of the banks, maybe no one would notice. After, Weiss Ratings was publishing lists of risky banks for many years, and no one was paying attention.
.......earlier I was admonished re. the FDIC possibly slowing down bank closures. It was stated that the federal & state "regulators" were the ones who actually assign them to the FDIC to be closed. Who and where are these so-called "regulators"? SOMEONE isn't pursuing the closure of these banks, plain and simple! Yanking the FDIC insurance would do it, so why isn't Bair initiating it from HER end along THAT path then? ONE insolvent bank today? Yeah right. I call Bullshit, again!
The only countries we've been able to suck into our hegemoney are Panama and Ecuador, Panama has used Yanqui Dollars for almost 100 years, and Ecuador for about 10.
Like dollars don't work in Mexico now?
I was six hours drive from the nearest airport and three hours drive from the nearest bank making change and had NO problem spending USD... hardly even saw any pesos. The local exchange rate was as good or better than the bank too...
**dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 9:29 pm
Like dollars don't work in Mexico now?
I was six hours drive from the nearest airport and three hours drive from the nearest bank making change and had NO problem spending USD... hardly even saw any pesos. The local exchange rate was as good or better than the bank too...*
*
The Thai Baht has been linked to the dollar since before my wife was a little girl-
As to who actually believes the rally, was talking to some guys at a scout meeting the other night and they're patting themselves on the back for their B of A stock purchases.
Woot woot.
But it'll only be a profit if they book it and if things go down fast, I see financials diving quicker than most.
A nuclear Iran scares the hell out of all the countries in the Middle East. A few MOABs carefully dropped would be the end of it, with a few terrorist attacks and the obligatory condemnation from the Arab League (and a pat on the back for taking them out).
Mostly USD... sometimes I'd ask for pesos but then got a shitty exchange rate. The logic was that they would have to go all the way back to the bank to get more pesos - there were a lot more dollars in circulation there.
sm_landlord
I don't know the process between futures and usable copper like in the form of wire, but I can tell you that the price only went down briefly. I have heard complaints about it from an electrician myself. They lower their quotes because demand disappeared (or reverted to maintenance instead of upgrades and new installs which are more profitable), then copper skyrockets, and they barely can quote to cover their costs cause some dumb upstart company that is still around quotes even lower. http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years
Hoopajoops LTD
Yeah, I believe I have had the same conversation. Try to start with the simple explanation of a credit bubble. Quote total debt to GDP of 175% that caused the great depression, and one now that is what 350%? Then explain those that benefited the most during the run up -- the ones who benefited from high leverage whether they be RE owners or CEOs of publicly listed companies -- will hurt the most in the unwinding of credit. By necessity, manufacturing will grow as a share of GDP -- which doesn't necessarily mean those workers' standard of living will increase, just that their personal ranking among Americans will increase. Then explain that the US is too large of an economy to freeze out or punish, and that if all international trade ceased it would benefit the US economy the most. The US has natural resources, speaks english, relatively good demographics, key geographic location whatever does happen, and some other reasons why there will something to look forward to.
.
l8r folks (that is pronounced later for you blue hairs : ) )
i don't think we see IndyMac style bank runs or failures. instead, the bank runs will come from deposit attrition. e.g. CDs (both brokered and standard) not deciding to roll over, especially in the Big 19 start leverage TBTF by subsidizing deposit rates (e.g Ally Banks above average CD rate).
when we were in germany(i was a small child) we used script at px and such,and local currency for locals. is script still in use, dont think it is but dont know. think dollar is used?
Ecuador & Panama might be smarter... I work w/ companies in Mexico & they tell me the peso is so hopelessly tied to the dollar as to be indistinguishable. A true dollar proxy... not officially pegged but hopelessly tied.
That wasn't the case when Mexico was a big time oil exporter - and also more self-sufficient agriculturally. The maquilladore connection & oil fields running out changed all that.
They got rid of the Sucre, as it just kept getting pounded by hyperinflation, and they gave up on it, and now a decade later, they might get pounded again by the same scourge.
FDIC is broke and they can't continue playing the game ....... so regulation of shit banks with toxic waste will be placed on hold, until Timmy re-writes the rules and spins the constitution like a bottle.
Senior regulators say they are seriously considering a plan to have the nation’s healthy banks lend billions of dollars to rescue the insurance fund that protects bank depositors, The New York Times’s Stephen Labaton reports.
IMHO, look for fewer closures and an increase in dead banks.
Obama never really understood anything about Afghanistan. Even back during the campaign, he was always talking about the "war againast Al Queda," not the Taliban.
It was a good slogan to talk about ending the war in Iraq and focusing on Afghanistan. It got votes at the time.
Obama is shallow. He gives great speeches, but he doesn't do or decide anything. Even the 3-ring circus today at the UN condemning Iran looked staged and stupid.
The American people are starting to see through Obama. They are fed up with his coddling of bankers and Wall Street. That's why you are seeing the increasing angry attacks in Congress against the Fed. Pretty soon, the attacks on the Fed will spread to the streets.
The Fed bigwigs soon will need police protection when they walk on the streets or appear in public.
I agree. I was just in Mexico. While it's experiencing the recession, too, the Mexicans are a lot more resilient than most Americans.
When Mexicans aren't making money in a downturn, they don't spend money. Nobody will lend them anything, so they know how to cut back. They don't borrow lots of money to buy houses they can't afford. They pay cash to build houses they can afford.
They take care of each other and can live off the land, if necessary. Labor is still relatively cheap, so employers are willing to hire, even if temporarily. Mexicans are pretty sweet and resourceful people, on the whole.
Well, I had to turn down an arrangement today with one of the banks on this list, to help it lower its required capital. At least the other people involved now appreciate the insolvency risk.
That bank in GA, with $2 bn of assets and a loss ration of 45% (with a loss-sharing agreement, presumably to hide even more losses). WTF? And we are still shoveling money at this pitiful excuse for a banking sector?
That does seem contradictory at first, but your 100% right about America re-playing the bank failure model which Japan provided, and thus the 10 year solution....
Senior regulators say they are seriously considering a plan to have the nation’s healthy banks lend billions of dollars to rescue the insurance fund that protects bank depositors
I certainly hope this is just a trial balloon, which has been promptly shut down.
From the bank perspective, lending to the FDIC is the same as buying Treasuries (assuming that the interest on the FDIC debt will be higher than yield on Treasuries would be too funny)
From the Treasury perspective, the difference is the impact on the reported federal debt.
Not sure what to say. Except i own a tent and plenty of camping equipment.
Hopefully it isn't expensive camping equipment - your $400 mountain tent might look like a couple weeks of meals to somebody else.
Seriously - it wasn't uncommon in the 70s to do a day hike and come back and find out 'somebody' stumbled on to your camp and cleaned you out - if they were nice they'd leave you enough food to get back... they weren't always very nice.
Well, the wife and kids are visiting relatives, and I'm home alone. So you know what that means:
Run to the grocery store for a giant bag of imitation crab meat, dipping sauce, and a case of diet coke and spend the evening sorting through my movies and songs.
Yah, I'm digging this. Banks like Goldman, JPM, Citi, WFC all will lend their TARP money back to FDIC and then use the interest for bonuses and record record EPS while helping save the banking system .... pretty sweet really, cause the conflict of interest and corruption will be swept under the rug by Obama, as he pats them on the back, saying heck of a job....
I don't know, it just smells that way and after the deal is cooked, anything can happen.
Nonetheless, wiki says:
GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or,
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M).
See: If a hotel is a private home, spending for renovation would be measured as consumption, but if a government agency converts the hotel into an office for civil servants, the spending would be included in the public sector spending, or G.
That does seem contradictory at first, but your 100% right about America re-playing the bank failure model which Japan provided, and thus the 10 year solution.... - DH
Aw, shucks! I'm beginning to think TPTB are choosing universal zombification of the banking system, as the only alternative to mass panic and hysteria. And what's worse, I'm not even sure I disagree, given the lack of real (i.e. politically possible) alternatives.
"What else was buried in the GDP report besides inventory and falling prices that was artificially goosing the data?
The answer? TARP. It turns out that the TARP money given to banks as recapitalization was a major factor in the total GDP number. (but see update below)
How? Uncle Sam buying a financial asset does not contribute to GDP under normal circumstances. But the Treasury purchased these assets at prices discounted to market prices. (Not as cheap as Buffett’s purchases, but still at somewhat of a discount)...."
Refreshing honesty from the Mayor of Detroit about what the future is and not what we want it to be. Probably cost him the election and be an object lesson for other politicos.
badger (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 1:23 pm All deposit accounts, excluding certain brokered deposits, have been transferred to First Citizens Bank and Trust Company, Inc., Columbia, SC ("assuming institution") and will be available immediately.
Is this a change?
Tax incentives to re-securitize existing securitized loans. Securitized Brokered Deposit Iz
be careful what you say, I got friends in this town
Whitney is also holding onto a dour prediction she made this summer about Wall Street: So far, 92 U.S. banks have failed this year, and Whitney says she expects 300 more medium and small banks to join them
A U.S. Marshals Service spokesman says jailed Texas billionaire R. Allen Stanford is being treated at a hospital after being injured during a fight with another inmate.
Deputy U.S. Marshal Alfredo Perez said Stanford was being treated Friday after a Thursday altercation at the private Joe Corley Detention Facility in Conroe about 40 miles north of Houston.
Perez says the 59-year-old's injuries aren't life threatening but declined to discuss details of the altercation. He says the incident is under investigation.
Stanford attorney Kent Schaffer says he hadn't talked with his client as of Friday evening but had been told the injuries aren't serious.
Stanford is charged with bilking investors of the now defunct Stanford Financial Group of more than $7 billion.
What else was buried in the GDP report besides inventory and falling prices that was artificially goosing the data? The answer? TARP. It turns out that the TARP money given to banks as recapitalization was a major factor in the total GDP number.
Doc, I spoke with some people in the research department at the St. Louis Fed about this back in February and they were very interested in learning the answer as well. They spent some time on it (at least that's what they told me) and decided that it was a canard.
Hey, I'm just passing along what they told me. They did look into it. If you want their names I'd be happy to pass them along and you can talk to them yourself.
cientists can't yet explain why green M&Ms seem to hold seductive powers or why the brown-hued chocolates appear to bring bad luck.
But new research shows that an artificial dye that is chemically similar to the one used in blue M&Ms may hold promise in treating spinal cord injuries, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The compound, called Brilliant Blue G--was injected into the veins of rats within 15 minutes of receiving a paralyzing injury. The rats given the BBG solution temporarily turned blue and regained their ability to walk, albeit with a limp. The rats who didn't receive the dye also recovered, but to a lesser extent than rats that received BBG
Okay, you've all inspired me. I realized that years and years of apartment living means I haven't really cranked my music in far too long. That has been rectified tonight. And even though it's recorded in stereo, my home theatre is somehow converting it to surround. I am not also commenting on CR on the big screen, instead of the regular computer. The imitation crab meat is delicious, although the sauce is not up to par but I'm not complaining.
so it's a one bank failure Friday?
you know I swear I'm like the guy at the craps table who keeps putting his money on the wrong numbers...
.....
watched the move The Hurt Locker last night. I think it's the first war movie made in some time by a woman
Kathryn Bigelow. Met her some years ago when she premiered Strange Days at NY Film Fest, she was with
James Cameron that night whom she later married. Very striking looking woman and a Columbia Film School grad
to boot.
I enjoyed the movie but it had a few flaws that seemed tactically wrong in engagement. That firefight they had with those snipers in the desert - don't they carry RPGs or mortars in their Humvee? and they didn't seem to know how to take cover properly...
The FDIC closing banks weekly does not add fertilizer to the green shoots the economy depends on currently. Here's a possible backdoor capitalization with the added ability of supporting the local power structures. Supporting continued fraud and corruption and not holding even the smallfry accountable is a long term mistake.
I long ago stopped trying to explain my irrational love for crab-flavoured pollock. It's just one of those things.
And I apologize for the spelling mistakes and grammatical errors, but although I love my home theatre PC I'm not used to this bluetooth portable keyboard at all. It types funny.
Basel Too writes;
"my shaky-cam tolerance is very low... "
** I can't wait for that fad to pass. I mean, Blair Witch is so last century...**
+10000. I almost threw the remote at my television when I was watching the bourne supremacy and they started using that stupid handheld camera for the fight scenes. Absolutely repulsive. I now just fast forward through all the fight scenes because I just can't watch that horrible cinematography.
Cinematography shoudl never be a distracting element to a movie, except for to the most sadistic of directors and then only with adequate advance warning.
don't blame it solely on Blair Witch, the real culprit is Jean Luc Godard's use of the hand held camera
in A Bout Souffle (sp?) aka Breathless in '59. He did it for purely budgetary reasons.
... did like the on the moon allusion in the opening and closing - half wanted to hear Walking on the Moon in that last
scene.
Funny, you saw but 2 aircraft in the entire film. You'd think if you were pinned down you'd call up an airstrike like in
Nam... maybe they don't do that stuff anymore...
.....
Shaky hand held has really annoyed me on TV cop shows...
"Cinematography shoudl never be a distracting element to a movie, except for to the most sadistic of directors and then only with adequate advance warning."
I cling to hope. Now that 3D is the new fad for movies (and coming soon to a home theater near your couch), if directors or cinematographers try that ShakyCam stuff, the audiences will be literally losing their cookies. Technicolor Yawn time.
+10000. I almost threw the remote at my television when I was watching the bourne supremacy
Make that +1000000 for me. Big time nausea when they do that (which I assume is supposed to make up for lack of content) and esp. when they ruined bourne with it.
Also, hear you on the mini-vaca. I remember my S.O. took the 3 kids to his mother's for maybe 4 days when they were younger, and I thought heaven had opened up. I actually went to the Burger King drive thru and got a movie I wanted to watch for a change. It was bliss. Altho it got lonely after the first day. It's great, in short doses.
Well, OK, I will admit that ShakyCam was used to good effect in the Max Headroom series. That was late 1980s as I recall. But they only used it where it made sense, and in small doses.
My wife and kids usually visit the inlaws or my parents when I'm away for more than a day or two on business. That way she gets a hand with the kids and they get distracted and don't drive her up the wall after the 2nd day. So usually I'm not home to enjoy it
But it has been a week, and I definitely debated driving the four hours tonight just to see them again. Ah well, one more night and I'll see 'em tomorrow.
for the hell of it I took that scene where Jason Bourne is fighting that Arab guy in Morocco
and loaded it on my editor to see how many cuts they used... far too many which made the fight
seem unreal...
Hitchcock employed about 87 cuts in the Janet Leigh shower scene in Psycho - which worked
brilliantly. my guess is that he had to do it that way to keep the scene from being too graphic
for ratings approval... could be wrong, also the multiple cuts obscured the ID of the killer and
the obvious nudity
In that context, I find it a little puzzling why the Russians are not returning a favor and arming the Talibans against the US, especially with hand held sams.
maybe they've learned te hard way to think more than one move ahead
Taken from the WSJ
WASHINGTON -- The House passed legislation Friday to head off a government shutdown next week by temporarily extending spending on most federal programs at current levels -- but at the same time boosted the office budgets of lawmakers by more than 8%.
If anyone is curious, the bill's information is: H.R.2918: Legislative Branch Appropriations Act, 2010. If you want to see how your representative voted, you can check here.
Sadly, I was enraged enough to draft an angry letter to my Congressman and will email/fax it on Monday. It was a vote strictly along party lines, but the fact that they decided to put an amendment to give themselves a budget increase was enough to make me...
Section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)) provides for the automatic termination of a national emergency unless, prior to the anniversary date of its declaration, the President publishes in the Federal Register and transmits to the Congress a notice stating that the emergency is to continue in effect beyond the anniversary date. In accordance with this provision, I have sent to the Federal Register for publication the enclosed notice, stating that the national emergency with respect to persons who commit, threaten to commit, or support terrorism is to continue in effect beyond September 23, 2009.
The crisis constituted by the grave acts of terrorism and threats of terrorism committed by foreign terrorists, including the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, in New York and Pennsylvania and against the Pentagon, and the continuing and immediate threat of further attacks on United States nationals or the United States that led to the declaration of a national emergency on September 23, 2001, has not been resolved. These actions pose a continuing unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. For these reasons, I have determined that it is necessary to continue the national emergency declared with respect to persons who commit, threaten to commit, or support terrorism, and maintain in force the comprehensive sanctions to respond to this threat.
Did you guys realize that Obama extended the 9/11 National Emergency against terrorism yesterday?
PATRIOT and its bastard brethren laws should be put down. If the mobs riot in D.C., I hope they burn every physical copy of those awful laws.
.
The only thing I despise more than Wall Street Bailouts and TBTF are laws that remove our protections from an over-zealous power structure. I'm looking at you suspension of habeas corpus.
Do you think the recent announcements of all the terrist plots in Dallas & NYC that have been revealed over the last couple of days were a co-inky-dink?
Was browsing this thread on my phone without logging in and boy was that an unfortunate revalation.
The loan was a no brainer, the Seller and Buyer were nice and liked each
other.
There were a ridiculous amount of trash forms to sign.
The lender didn't approve my figures until after 7; then I had to drive an hour
to get there, which was luckily towards Merritt Island. But I'm too tired; stopped
on the way.
I conclude that the real estate market in South Florida CAN'T recover because
the lenders can't process fha loans fast enough to make a market. And no
conventionals are available. I don't expect this to change anytime soon.
All my closings have been bad. If it gets any worse than this, nothing will
close at all. It's really that bad.
homedad43: I have been puzzling out the implications of the Fed reverse repo talk.
Here is where I came out. I would be interested in your and others opinions if me reasoning makes sense.
Background:
Fed does a repo:
Before the transaction, Fed has cash; MMFND has securities.
After the transaction, Fed has the securities, MMFND has the cash.
Fed does a reverse repo:
Before the transaction, Fed has the securities; MMFND has the cash.
After the transaction, Fed has the cash; MMFND has the securities.
The paperwork to setup a repo or a reverse repo are basically the same. Once you get all the agreements and procedures in place, you can metaphorically do a reverse repo by turning the trading machine's crank clockwise and a repo by turning it counter-clockwise.
So the Fed has builds a Wonderful Repo/Reverse Repo Machine (tm). They will test it out by doing some small reverse repos and tell all the inflation hawks to stop worrying. They have the money supply under control. If inflation takes off, they simply suck the excess liquidity out of the system using the Wonderful Repo/Reverse Repo Machine (tm). See they they have tested it and it works just fine.
Scenerios:
Assume that you are the Fed and you saw the money markets seize up last fall when there was a run on money market funds which necessitated massive injections of liquidity and an explicit government guarantee of money fund deposits.
Further assume that the government guarantee is expiring, but the risk of another run on money market funds is still possible/probable.
Usually, when the Fed needs to inject liquidity, it does so through its primary dealers and they in turn get the money, you hope, where it is needed.
It is very inefficient and might not work. If the MMFNDs need to raise cash in a hurry, they would call the primary dealers to sell securities. The primary dealers might not answer their phones. If they do answer the phones, they will low ball the price. This will assure that MMFNDs "break the buck" and accelerate the run.
So Fed looks around for an alternative to get funds needed for MMFND redemptions into the MMFNDs without destroying the short-term debt markets or the primary dealers. They cannot risk destroying the primary dealers. The primary dealers are critical to Treasury debt sales. No primary dealers; no Treasury debt sales. No Treasury debt sales; no Federal paychecks, social security payments. Fuggly!!
Someone at the Fed remembers that they just built the Wonderful Repo/Reverse Repo Machine (tm). It is a two'fer: turn the crank clockwise, it sucks cash out of the MMFNDs; turn the crank counter-clockwise, it pumps cash into the MMFNDs.
If a run starts on MMFNDs, the Fed will inject sufficient cash to meet redemptions into the MMFNDs by turning the crank like crazy and pumping cash into the MMFNDs like a firehose.
If a run starts on MMFNDs, the Fed will inject sufficient cash to meet redemptions into the MMFNDs by turning the crank like crazy and pumping cash into the MMFNDs like a firehose.
My only thought is one more of human experience than anything as sound or technical as your post: if it is too good to be true, it probably is.
.
If they have figured out a way to turn on a dime and handle either situation, then we may be on the path towards a new paradigm into macroeconomics and financing. However, it seems one chip in a gear or one clogged chain, and the process will b0rk everything faster than before.
.
Nothing fuels fear faster than a false sense of security exposed.
the reverse repo is basically an OMO using MBS instead of treasuries to drain cash. the hole that i see is default, since the fed is guaranteeing the credit risk.
ouch!
.
That is one helluva chip in a gear! I can only imagine what the MM funds will do if that little gremlin sticks its head up. We will weep like Eric for our MMFs!
The fact that they would need to bail out the MMFs is bad enough. However, everyone is on edge at the moment so I think anything can spook the herd. Ben's press doesn't have the ability to help people sleep at night.
Don't know much about the mechanism, but the term "reverse repo" gets me.
I just picture some "Reverse Repo Man" going into the bank and putting all sorts of old boats, cars, and other stuff in place of the cash they have... "sorry, your cash was repossessed..."
I guess the banks will just be flowing the garbage CP to people... "we don't have cash, but the Fed gave us all this CP that we pawned off on them, that they just reverse repo'd back to us..."
It'll be like real-estate-roulette when you go to the ATM... "Aww crap, the paper I got is a legal-tender note of a mortgage slice from South Florida..." going down to the store... "Can I give you this garbage CP for bread?"
Maybe that's not at all like what is actually being talked about, but that's how I picture it in my head...
It'll be like real-estate-roulette when you go to the ATM... "Aww crap, the paper I got is a legal-tender note of a mortgage slice from South Florida..." going down to the store... "Can I give you this garbage CP for bread?"
Maybe that's not at all like what is actually being talked about, but that's how I picture it in my head...
Exact mechanism would be different, but the effect might be the same.
Norka, what you're proposing makes perfect sense to me, although I haven't read the proposal. Perhaps you could provide a link so those of us who are interested can read it tomorrow.
I don't see why it couldn't work as you described.
As far as default risk is concerned, they haven't let that stop them up to now.
Why should anything change? It's called the "TOO BIG TO FAIL DOCTRINE."
The obvious counterparties for reverse repo deals are the Wall Street primary dealers. However, the Fed thinks they would only have balance sheet capacity to refinance about $100bn of assets. By contrast, the money-market funds have $2,500bn in assets, which means they could plausibly refinance as much as $500bn in Fed assets. Officials think there would be appetite on the part of the funds, which are under pressure from regulators and investors to stick to low-risk liquid investments.
During the crisis, the Fed created roughly $800bn of additional bank reserves to finance asset purchases and loans. This total is likely to rise in the coming months as the central bank completes its asset purchases and the Treasury unwinds financing it provided to the Fed. Fed officials think they could raise interest rates even with this excess supply of reserves by offering to pay banks to deposit their surplus funds with it rather than lend them out. However, they also want to use reverse repos in tandem to soak up some of the excess reserves. Policymakers call this a “belt and braces approach”.
I must be running in the wrong group. I never heard of this movement in our state.
My Grandfather lived within site of lake Winnipesaukee his whole life. He once told me that when he was a boy (would have been around 1910) he used to cut a piece off the neighbor's boat house and smoke it whenever they were feeling the need for a good time.
The first step to recovery is recognizing when you have a problem.
Entrez Bankerdome
Deux entrer un laissera
Abattoir de Bair
Pigged
Juvenal Delinquent -
I think there are like 96 hunters in California, and the rest of us frequent supermarkets.
Well, that explains a lot about what is wrong with California.
Hunting on land or in the ocean is part of real life, not printing more imaginary money, or issuing IOU's.
I guess this means we're done for today, huh?
a 2 billion dollar bank isn't enough?
quality not quatilty
(pigged)
rich,
I walk a lot of miles in the mountains all the time, and my efforts are more along the lines of not trying to kill anything, as i'm a guest in their home, just passing through...
Well, the bank sent me an incorrect figure, so now I have
do some more figuring.
Grumble.
Liz is not a happy liz.
Nemo,
here's a clever limerick.
Kilt Song - Sing-Along Fun from Brownielocks
And remember, club soda, not seals.
Around here, the "hunters" are small-time commercial fishermen. Got a real macho crowd down at the harbor, kind of guys who'll shoot a sea lion who's trying to raid their nets. Money's on the line.
Previous thread:
Thanks sm_landlord and nova.
I've been reading Fussell's War Anthology.
Blighters
Siegfried Sassoon
The House is crammed: tier beyond tier they grin
And cackle at the Show, while prancing ranks
Of harlots shrill the chorus, drunk with din;
‘We’re sure the Kaiser loves our dear old Tanks!’
I’d like to see a Tank come down the stalls,
Lurching to rag-time tunes, or ‘Home, sweet Home’,
And there’d be no more jokes in Music-halls
To mock the riddled corpses round Bapaume.
Book Tip
"Class" by Fussell
Cinco-X wrote:
Ten minutes until west coast closings - so maybe another one or two.
Really does look like Bair is budgeting.
This is the companion site for CR's weekly list:
Banks with the most troubled loans - BankTracker- msnbc.com
Really does look like Bair is budgeting.
Which is great. Gives all those "troubled" banks time to make some huge bets and save themselves.
If you're not prepared to give me your undying love, then don't read the rest of this post. Have you ever phoned a company to get stuck in a phone menu tree jungle? Do the prompts take 5 minutes to list all the options? Don't you hate that? Next time find out the unpublished codes to skip the queue first. Phone Numbers, Shortcuts & Customer Service Tips - Companies Worldwide - gethuman.com I'm not affiliated with it, but I just used it for the first time in a long time. Even if the company you're looking for isn't on it, most call centers are outfitted with generic codes so it is easy to guess. Sorry, I just felt great after skipping to an operator within 2 seconds, after giving up on the menu that took 3 minutes to get absolutely no where but a never-ending disclaimer
I'm afraid we may be going to war. Another war.
The other day I heard a US Senator on the radio regretting that we were not bombing woman and children in Afghanistan, because they were helping the Taliban.
pavel.chichikov wrote:
Who...
It is still early, so relax; this is what
is for ..... This can go on for several ours, so stay calm, take some deep inhalations ... let the fine/smooth muscles unwind, plenty of time. Nonetheless, I'm (one of) the current winner and I'm the one with anxiety (at this point). 
OT
The 10 least visited U.S. national parks ( 5 in Alaska)
The 10 least visited U.S. national parks | Yahoo! Green
Only Blackhalo and Mook had the one and done.
Edit: Doc has the two, Polls still open
Hu's yer sockpuppet?
I'm afraid we may be going to war. Another war.
Not only we are running out of money to launch a new war, we are running out of countries to go against.
Maybe not so OT:
Very early this morning, I saw Jim Rickards on the tube. He was saying that Triffin's Dilemma
is still operative.
Might be good fodder for a late-night thread.
Next election cycle should be pretty interesting, only 1 year to go! A trip down memory lane:
YouTube - Fox News Guard Decks Ron Paul Supporter
YouTube - Ron Paul supporters chase Hannity
bANK f,
I was a little late, but come on, I've been bitching, moaning and complaining for a week that FDIC is going belly up and that the rate of failures would slow down ... these are awful times, I was just trying to find a moment of happiness in this unfolding possibility.
In other news:
Business Examiner
hu cudda Self Evident node
681
-not
Well, I don't know about undying love, but that site is damn useful.
MrM
Nobody likes war. Sometimes you get looting, or an excuse to increase spending -- but you don't need a war to loot or spend.
"Who..."
I have blanked on the name - really. I remember the state, but I won't say. Probably some Catholic diffidence about detraction. I felt ashamed for the man, and just plain ashamed.
Nobody likes war.
Tell this to Cheney or Blackwater
(I know it is not what you meant)
In states with lax bank regulation,
Bankers feel much aggravation,
When the Feds come to call
And with unmitigated gall
Put an end to their rank speculation.
"Not only we are running out of money to launch a new war"
I think the money can be found, given the political impulse.
Pakistan: too tough and what for
Iran: too tough and what for
North Korea: too tough and what for
Also our equipment is worn down and the troops are worn out.
For Nova,
OT, but you mentioned in earlier thread that your BIL has breast cancer....other Marines have it too...from exposure to toxins at Camp Lejuene?
Link, for you.
Poisoned patriots? Stricken Marines seek help with illnesses - CNN.com
Going to war right now on a 3rd front, would be like starting a new war, just as the helicopters were leaving Saigon for the last time in 1975...
Two Bloomberg headlines from the same day, almost next to each other
G-20 Leaders Seek to Curb `Excessive' Banker Pay, Align Economic Policies Group of 20 leaders said they will crack down on risk-taking by banks and better align economic policies as they turned from crisis management to delivering a new set of rules for the world economy.
Goldman Sachs May Boost Pay, Stock Awards on Performance, Citigroup Says Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may pay employees more this year because of the firm’s “phenomenal” results, though a larger portion will come in restricted stock to help align compensation to long-term profit, according to Citigroup Inc. analysts.
Of course, GS would argue that they really did not take on any risk to generate those “phenomenal” results, just used its Rolodex - it was all rather clear and obvious, really
Speaking of punishing the TBTF crowd:
.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Dalton Chiscolm is unhappy about Bank of America's customer service -- really, really unhappy.
.
Chiscolm in August sued the largest U.S. bank and its board, demanding that "1,784 billion, trillion dollars" be deposited into his account the next day. He also demanded an additional $200,164,000, court papers show.
clap clap again!!
How man-ee quad-drillionz' iz dat?
-mr. Superfluous
**T H I S IS A S PE C I A L R E P O RT **
- NY Times
''While these numbers look good, they are not as good as they look,'' Mr. Seidman said of the profit figures. ''There are several areas we need to keep a careful eye on.''
For example, Mr. Seidman said that bank failures were likely to continue to be very high next year. Through the end of last week, 213 banks had either failed or needed Federal aid, already breaking last year's record of 203 failures.
Though Mr. Seidman predicted that number would fall to 170 institutions in 1989, it would still represent a considerable drain on the assets of the F.D.I.C., which insures deposits up to $100,000.
The F.D.I.C. chairman said that the cost of the failures would produce the first annual loss in the agency's 55-year history. The fund began the year with $18.3 billion in reserves, which have now been reduced to around $15 billion, he said.
Top Songs Of 1988
Here is my haiku:
Where are the failures
Sickly banks ubiquitous
Hidden losses grow
Except if it was Iran it wouldn't be a 'third front'... it would be more like a 'front consolidation'... take two small wars and turn it into one big one... Iraqiranistan... hell might as well take on the Pashtuns in Pakistan and call it the Pakiraqiranistan War... from Indus to Euphrates. Alexander would even gasp...
Hope none of these people played Risk as kids,,,
In regards to pawn shops...
Way back when, before this financial crisis, this is how the pawn business worked:
A pawnbroker would give around 50% of what he could wholesale off, whatever it is you were trying to pawn.
Let's say you have a set of Snap-On Tools which are worth $1000 retail, and $550 wholesale, the pawnbroker would lend you around $250 @ 25% interest (Ca.) and of all the loans that pawnbroker made, about 85% (redemption rate) of the people would come back and claim their stuff out of hock, by paying off their loan.
++++++++++
That was then, this is now...
There is virtually no wholesale market for anything now (except precious metals), so that same set of Snap-On Tools might find a buyer @ $350, so the pawnbroker will lend out around $125.
The redemption rate is closer to 50% now, and as a result pawnbrokers don't want to end up with a back room full of junk, so they are a lot pickier than they used to be, about what they lend on.
And keep in mind that pawnbrokers are about the last place people can get quick money for stuff~
obama's signing statement mentioned iraq,afghanistan and pakistan. looks like we have 3 part war now.
Surrendering to Canada would be a better option than that, really
mrm ala the mouse that roared
Who do you think the Indians, Russians and Chinese would side with?
There are certain similarities to 1914, not in terms necessarily of global war, but of options being lost, freedom of decision weakened.
My vote is to surrender to Canada.
I don't want to move there, it snows.
Funds of August?
Better than holing up in Oceania with that massively huge +2 (+3) army bonus per turn. Besides, why would it make a bad idea in Risk? The only way they could retaliate is go through Europe, Africa, or Alaska.
"Who do you think the Indians, Russians and Chinese would side with?"
The Indians and Chinese aren't really the critical problem.
@dryfly
In that context, I find it a little puzzling why the Russians are not returning a favor and arming the Talibans against the US, especially with hand held sams.
Also from that old link....
BFF trivia and update: L. William Seidman dies at 88; former chairman of FDIC -- latimes.com
"We had to be able to value every kind of loan and real estate holding imaginable," Seidman recalled in his 1993 book, "Full Faith and Credit." "We needed to know exactly what an acre of desert between Phoenix and Tucson was worth."
"@dryfly
In that context, I find it a little puzzling why the Russians are not returning a favor and arming the Talibans against the US, especially with hand held sams."
They also have a problem with radical Islamists.
From Forbes
Evoking a so-called "Tobin Tax" on financial transactions, the G20 said it had asked the IMF to report back at its next meeting on the options being nationally considered to get the financial services industry to shoulder a share of the costs.
...
"We will likely have a formulation that makes clear that we are dealing with the question of who pays the costs of such a crisis," Merkel told ARD German television.
"We ask the International Monetary Fund to make us proposals on this by the next meeting. One possibility is a financial market transaction tax," she added.
Sounds like glorified mopping after burst bubbles instead of trying to prevent bubble creation in the first place (although still better than simply forgiving and asking not to do it again)
Juice of GWAR?
YouTube -
I don't want to move there, it snows.
Climate change will fix that for most of their snowy days. (Northern latitudes are expected to warm substantially as the jet stream moves much further north - parching the bulk of the southern US west)
Agreed with Pavel. Russia is already fighting with Islamists within their own sphere of influence, and they would have no way of ensuring that their version of Stingers weren't going to be used to bring down their airplanes.
.
On the bright side, it would mean they are arming the enemies of their quasi-enemies which is so stupid that only the CIA & Congress would consider such a plan...
Can any sentient person believe only ONE US bank is insolvent today?
If the war were expanded from Pakistan to Iraq, these countries would be involved-
About the only people eager to get into wars nowadays are 3rd world countries and us.
Says a lot...
"There is virtually no wholesale market for anything now (except precious metals), so that same set of Snap-On Tools might find a buyer @ $350, so the pawnbroker will lend out around $125."
Sounds like it's time to go shopping for some quality tools. Snap-On is good stuff.
and call it the Pakiraqiranistan War...
Or maybe just "The Crusades".
Sadly, yes. I'm starting to think that I should take my gut feeling and subtract one 'cause I seem to be overshooting it each week. The FDIC's general is in a political pissing match with the Treasury, and she doesn't want the use those funds.
How do you know the Russians are not doing just that?
Viktor Bout was accused of supplying arms to the Taliban and al Qaeda
'Most-wanted' arms dealer arrested in Thailand - CNN.com
I think I speak for all Canadians when I say "don't tease me".
"We needed to know exactly what an acre of desert between Phoenix and Tucson was worth."
Funny how that keeps coming up.
Was that another vote of support for Silver, JD? I could find a pawn shop who would take my silver before taking someone's set of Snap-On tools? Eh? Eh?
We do have a choice on our military aims in south asia: come home with our tails between our legs, or come home home with tails cut off and missing some other limbs.
We really need a PIG here and faith that FDIC will do its job versus allow fraud to continue and thus provide weekly examples of non-regulation (again).
Sheila was probably gonna close down 4 pipsqueak banks worth a crummy 400 million in total, but those Gawjan politicians must have rubbed her the wrong way, methinks.
Don't worry. You can keep your speedo in the drawer...
.
this winter.
let me just re-emphasize my sentiment WRT war.
SHORT THE GUNMAKERS
A few threads back there was some talk about Jesse Ventura
He was recently interviewed on "Dan Carlin's Common Sense" podcast
The link above will send you to the mp3...
You would think that our politicians would learn their lesson and stop going into SE Asia with such half-assed attempts. How many times do we have to get pwn3d by a man making 10 USD/yr killing our troops with devices made for 10 USD?
There is nothing more pathetic than some woman coming into a pawn shop wearing about 2 ounces of sterling silver jewelry that she paid $400 for, and the pawnbroker offers her $10.
Seen it dozens of times...
"I could find a pawn shop who would take my silver before taking someone's set of Snap-On tools?"
If someone would sell me silver at 50% of wholesale, I would open a pawnshop or whatever tomorrow.
I think there are like 96 hunters in California, and the rest of us frequent supermarkets.
And in PA, we've got thousands of hunters and small town businesses advertising "antlers mounted".
How many in CA have actually had fresh venison?
What was that about never getting involved in a land war in Asia?
That's the b!tch about living in a condo -- no space for storing things -- otherwise I'd be trolling the pawnshops & Craigslist for all sorts of quality tools and such. I'd love to be putting together a home machine shop ala mp.
If she paid 400 USD for 2 oz of Silver, then she probably also owns a deed to a bridge in Manitoba which is just as bad of an investment.
Fresh deer liver is wonderful. Just don't over cook it.
SNAFU wrote:
How would we know they aren't?
jd that 100 is the problem, if they get by that it will be easier but 100 banks failing and georgia bringing it to the 100. wow tpbp wouldnt like it. the ga policitians probably told her they "would have her job" maybe the west coast will have their failures.?
edited because it didnt make sense even to me the way it was.
China is dependent on imported oil. Russia's income is dependent on the price of oil. India doesn't like the Pakistanis. Finally, the geopolitical balance of power would hand on the outcome. As such, these parties would feel compelled to be involved in one way or another. I'm not advocating this war or escalation of the present war. I'm just asking that if, as was suggested, the war was expanded, how would the other parties line up. I think that the probable lineup would make the war even less winnable than it is now-
I believe this answers your question:
The Battle of Wits
The electrician who came by today to fix the electrical hook up to my laundry room told me that our currency was about to collapse and that we'd see rioting in the streets and civil war soon enough.
Nobody hocks precious metals @ pawn shop, everything they take in is mostly jewelry that gets melted down, if it doesn't get redeemed, and then gets sold for 96% of spot price after being turned into a dore bar.
TJ,
"no space for storing things"
I don't have space at home either. Which is why I'm shopping for very inexpensive industrial space.
homedad43 wrote:
Businesses close down on the opening of deer season - if they didn't they'd have everyone call in sick anyway.
OK, even the gov is running out of money. Sheila is broke, FHA is broke, Fannie and Freddie are not slovent. Ben has been printing nonstop and it isn't enough.
How do we just call this done and over?
When I was in high school - long ago - first day of deer season was a school holiday.
The guys would bring in their new rifles to show off before season started.
Inconceivable.
EDIT: Dammit, beaten by energyecon. Handily, I might add.
gov't only broke until fy rollover...
dollar rally, sell the equities and get to cash.
That's the b!tch about living in a condo -- no space for storing things -- otherwise I'd be trolling the pawnshops & Craigslist for all sorts of quality tools and such.
Pawnshops around here know that the contractors are in trouble but they also know that we are not... so I haven't seen an appreciable decrease in tool cost.
A lot of people in San Francisco. Imported fresh from New Zealand.
The hard right loves to mock France in particular, they'll say things like "The French are just a bunch of surrender monkeys, etc"
Those surrender monkeys lost more men in World War 1, then we've lost in total, in all of our wars...
America isn't sick of war yet, because we've been largely shielded from it's horrors...
We'll learn~
"How many in CA have actually had fresh venison? "
Count me for one. Rack of ribs. Amazing.
The electrician who came by today to fix the electrical hook up to my laundry room told me that our currency was about to collapse and that we'd see rioting in the streets and civil war soon enough.
Now that is scary. When your cab driver starts giving you stock tips...
Keep me apprised of your progress; may be a joint venture in there somewhere.
josap wrote:
We don't, but someone will. Just be ready when it happens.
Maybe so - one thesis I read was that the terminal wave we will see a sharp dollar rally accompanied by a bond market rout - if Treasuries are being sold hard, a sh!t ton of dollars will be in demand...briefly
.
still thinking that one over
It cannot be over. Not at 8:58 EST. No.
C
josap
times have changed havent they? cant do that anymore, school on lock down for ever.
This has nothing to do with my question to dryfly. Why have you gone down this route?
Now that is scary.
Creeped me out. In normal times, you don't just out and tell people opinions like that. In normal times.
"briefly" is correct. There's always a head-fake beforehand.
Exactly. A one failure week? Following a 2 failure week?
I think they should be picking up the pace, not slowing down. Maybe there will be a late one ...
best to all
Unofficially, I am of the opinion that all the banks are problems.
I don't understand the people who still back the Afghan war. Since I lean that way I read the blogs; and the comments there are way foreign to me. In response to post that Americans are turning against Afghan war:
If any of these people looked at the war objectively they would see:
- All we've accomplished is setting up a gov't that's crumbling
- Our mission has been static for 8 years
- If we leave, the Taliban will come in; how is that different from 9/10
- We've accomplished very little in 8 years!
Trying to "bring democracy to Afghanistan" is like using Playboy magazine to get your stud to mate...
Hoops writes;
"Creeped me out."
You weren't kidding?
I'm not sure that I know how to interpret a shoeshine boy moment like that. Yikes.
You strike me as a war lover, that's all.
My late father's company shut down for the first three days of deer season. Too much impact on their Workers' Comp from sudden rashes of back injuries if they didn't.
As to Risk, any experienced player knows that the key is always Iceland.
And yeah, I hear that conversation about currency collapse around here, too. Not in huge amounts, but J6P with any consciousness is aware of what we're doing.
DIF fund dues get paid Sept 30... Gov't gets funded... we'll be rocking 6 or 7 with a few big ones before X-mas... **
Hoops,
Ran across a very sharp (and decently well-off) business acquaintance yesterday, and when talking about the business climate he immediately warned to watch out for the next leg down. We exchanged a knowing look on that one.
Was it out of the blue, or part of a conversation? Because if that's his normal opening line, I can imagine quite a few long awkward pauses with his normal clientèle.
Oddly enough, I mentioned a while back (yesterday?) that I was listening to a few bright political lights for a while. I got to talking with one of them over a beer, and although I don't think he was fully on the
side, he was definitely a lot more pragmatic over a beer. Basically he had been shorting commodities in the middle of last summer and did alright, and our conversation about the potential for serious difficulties in October, re: dollar collapse and serious market pull-back, put us in relative agreement as to what might be expected.
I guess my point, if I have one, is that some of the political string pullers are quite aware of the potential, but the only way they'll say it is over a beer in a dark corner of a pub.
So who is gunna call BB and invite the great bearded one out for a beer?
Hoopajoops LTD wrote:
Okay - which one of you guys is hoops electrician?
Kcoop, finally saw the error.
reply to, in reply too, creates loop failure.
Internets explorerz livz
bank failure:which ie are you using?
CR - I think Sheila needs to hold a bake sale or two before we see multiple bank failure Fridays...
Or maybe Geithner says.... "Sheila will come to me... when she's ready."
Interesting series of articles from Jesse's cafe re reverse repos with money market funds instead of primary dealers.
Still working through all of it.
Jesse's Café Américain
Ultimately, what's the value of a treasury if the government is defaulting?
Was it out of the blue, or part of a conversation? Because if that's his normal opening line, I can imagine quite a few long awkward pauses with his normal clientèle.
Well, I was going to buy a washer and dryer and asked his opinion on various brands. One brand was made in the US. I said I'd prefer that brand, as I'm not sure how easy it will be to get parts from china, given the economic climate. That set it off. Thinks the US Dollar is going to be eliminated, too, replaced with some kind of currency. He was an electrician from a local supply store that is family owned - 8 members of an extended family running the place. Real salt of the earth. Ex CHP officer. Said riots and cities burning.
Did the electrition say "why" he thought that was going to happen?
OK, it's 6:05 PDT.
Someone must have told Sheila to back off. Of the DIF is emptier than we thought.
Hoopajoops,
The Amero or Special Drawing Rights... I suppose not much of a difference...
"Ultimately, what's the value of a treasury if the government is defaulting?"
About the same value as a Czarist T-Bill...
"replaced with some kind of currency"... meaning akin to the IMF basket?
The Amero or Special Drawing Rights... I suppose not much of a difference...
I didn't inquire too specifically, because I felt that if I did, I would contaminate his opinion. I was interested in what he was saying, unadulterated by my prompts.
I live near Camp Lejeune and it is so sad to see young men shopping at Walmart on the electric wheelchairs. So many marines have been scarred for life for no reason at all. BTW, many more marines are against these stupid futile follies. The world won't learn until a country's leadership goes to prison for needless wars--same as bankers--no improvement without mass perp walks.
Somehow, the Amero sounds too much like an automobile model.
Or maybe Geithner says.... "Sheila will come to me... when she's ready."
Doesn't Sheila already have $500 Bil line from Geithner approved by the Congress?
I think they should be picking up the pace, not slowing down.
From what I'm hearing, the community banks are playing the (local) armageddon card. If state regulators close a bank:
it's just another flavor of Wall St v. Main St.
The Russians are doing something more clever than arming the Taliban to get the US. They are allowing us open and notorious supply routes through their territory. As the Khyber Pass gets choked off, it is more needed. The Afghans remember the Soviet atrocities, and see us effectively allied with them. Taliban recruiting magic.
So, let me understand this Amero nonsense...
Mexico, which is a basket-case, running out of it's main source of income-oil, coupled with untouchable drug cartels...
Canada, which wants no part of anything to do with the USA right now, financially, if it can be avoided...
Somehow, our neighbors down under and up over are gonna be cool with the idea of a mutual currency after the dollar goes away?
ha ha
Middle kid is watching Princess Bride and I can only think of the line...
"Hello, my name is Inigo RonPaula and you killed my currency. Prepare to die."
Heh... yesterday on the House floor Rep Defazio was pitching for a "CPI-E" COLA adjustment for the elderly... other Rep's were complaining about closing car dealerships...
I don't think they got the word we're broke yet...
The $500B requires a systemic risk determination to draw: Approval by the boards of the Fed and the FDIC, as well as consent of the President (with advice from the Treasury)
Yes but Timmmay is an oaf and below her - there is no love between them... not yet anyway.
"The $500B requires a systemic risk determination to draw"
So they haven't figured out that the system is broken yet?
Sorry, I just had to snark that.
homedad43 wrote:
Same owner... GM Amero... Official Car of the US Treasury!!!
wonder if other states are going to complain like georgia? isnt illinois up there with us?
////Basel Too (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/25/2009 - 6:10 pm replyIgnore userThe $500B requires a systemic risk determination to draw: Approval by the boards of the Fed and the FDIC, as well as consent of the President (with advice from the Treasury)
I don't think they dare use the "systemic risk" line again. Too many people now know what that means.
Sheila will wait until all of the above beg her to take the money and continue closing banks.
Great Inigo Montoya clip:
YouTube - Princess Bride - My Name Is...
19 out of 95 bank shots are from Georgia, you could say they are well-represented.
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Like they'd have a choice - they'd bitch and follow.
Seriously - in a global sense they are both dollar proxies now anyway & have been for decades.
bANK fAILURE, could you send these reports to me via email? I actually haven't been on the site all day.
I'm not sure what the error is you're referring to. I don't have you down as beta testing, so this is related to the existing theme?
Hoops,
I would suggest 2 things that led to the electrician suggesting that:
- Price of copper. Every electrician it keenly aware of it, when the price goes up their margins goes down
- National debt. A lot more people are aware of it now. They hear trillion for the first time in their life, the debt, the increases in spending, and the cuts in services
josap wrote;
"Sheila will wait until all of the above beg her to take the money and continue closing banks. "
Interesting - I wonder what would happen if a decision was made to stop closing zombie banks.
Would we start to see runs? Or would nothing happen, at least for a while? Unless a run started, maybe no one would notice. They must have gamed this scenario by now.
in a global sense they are both dollar proxies now anyway & have been for decades.
I'm sure that they like to be considered as off-brand currencies.
The only countries we've been able to suck into our hegemoney are Panama and Ecuador, Panama has used Yanqui Dollars for almost 100 years, and Ecuador for about 10.
I'll send another email offline.
based on your previous response it may not be java related.
EHP,
Isn't the price of finished copper goods pretty low now? Or did it stick up at the highs?
"My wife just told me that 80% of the campgrounds in TN are occupied by homeless people. "
I can personally confirm that nearly 100% of the free campgrounds in northern california have become full-fledged, permanent homeless person communities. They have lots of dope, though. I rolled up to one around a month ago and just drove 7 hours back home rather than camping. Definitely not a good vibe.
Evil Henry Paulson writes:
National debt
That was his big beef. That and the destruction of our manufacturing base. I tried to tell him that if our dollar blows up, our manufacturing base will recover almost overnight, but I only started on that talk a little bit.
Panama has used Yanqui Dollars for almost 100 years, and Ecuador for about 10.
And China. Don't forget China.
I don't think that keeping zombie banks open would cause a run per se.
Most people don't pay serious attention to the bank ratings/stats and it would take a particularly nasty blowup to cause a run. And by that time, the silent run has brought down the carcass. I suspect that the OCC/pertinent regulators would permit the use of various accounting gimmicks to keep the flesh on the bones.
Saw a trailer today for "Zombieland" and would like to nominate Woody Harrelson for chairman of the Fed.
I don't dismiss this fellow's view; I really appreciate you passing that to us Hoops.
But is anyone getting a little weirded out that it's really really hard to find a single person who really truly believes in this rally? What's that say? And what are the ramifications of a huge portion of investors who are ready to bail at a moment's notice? What's that say about those investors who are already trying to position for it?
sm_landlord wrote:
Why would there be a run? Only one reason - they don't have cash to make claims & J6P learns that... if FDIC makes sure they have cash on a day-to-day basis & get backed stopped by Treasury & Fed as double sure J6P always get his cash... it would result in a much lower cash drain at FDIC in the short run - allow them to jack up fees & 'premiums' to try and back fill their losses.
Of course that only 'works' if they are out of the woods so losses don't grow & multiply - do they REALLY think they are out of the woods? If they do think that then it would explain the go slow...
Meanwhile J6P will leave his money where it is until there is evidence he can't get it - then everyone in Indianapolis & Bakersfield & Tampa storm their respective banks simultaneously - so make sure the cash is ready to hand out.
That would be how you do Japan American style...
As most people have less than $250,000.00 in the bank, why would there be bank runs? If my money is safe,or I think it is safe, I am not going to close my checking account.
No clue what happens to lending if they just stop closing banks down.
homedad;
"I suspect that the OCC/pertinent regulators would permit the use of various accounting gimmicks to keep the flesh on the bones."
Well, to the extent that the regulators have already forced the hot money (like brokered CDs) out of the banks, maybe no one would notice. After, Weiss Ratings was publishing lists of risky banks for many years, and no one was paying attention.
By use it, I mean it's the only game in town, there is no other currency used.
Ever wonder why you never see Sacagawea or Presidential dollar coins in change hardly?
They all got sent down to Ecuador, where they are as common as a quarter would be here.
Why?
Seignorage.
It might cost 6 cents to make a dollar coin, and then you ship it down to Ecuador, and book the profit of 94 cents per dollar. Sweet...
That's why most other countries say ixnay to a currency-union, eh?
Hulu - Movie Trailers: Zombieland
And here's the trailer...
sounds like a good time.
Who's up for a road trip?
Sluggish like a wet sponge
.......earlier I was admonished re. the FDIC possibly slowing down bank closures. It was stated that the federal & state "regulators" were the ones who actually assign them to the FDIC to be closed. Who and where are these so-called "regulators"? SOMEONE isn't pursuing the closure of these banks, plain and simple! Yanking the FDIC insurance would do it, so why isn't Bair initiating it from HER end along THAT path then? ONE insolvent bank today? Yeah right. I call Bullshit, again!
Juvenal Delinquent wrote:
Like dollars don't work in Mexico now?
I was six hours drive from the nearest airport and three hours drive from the nearest bank making change and had NO problem spending USD... hardly even saw any pesos. The local exchange rate was as good or better than the bank too...
darfly
did you get your change back in USD or pesos?
The Thai Baht has been linked to the dollar since before my wife was a little girl-
I see Barry Ritholtz is on FSN this week as part of his book promotion.
Financial Sense Newshour
Also Harry Dent in the latest part of the inflation/deflation debate Jim Puplava is conducting. Previous segments have been excellent.
Jim
To reiterate:
Mexico has a national currency, a Plan B.
Ecuador and Panama don't.
As to who actually believes the rally, was talking to some guys at a scout meeting the other night and they're patting themselves on the back for their B of A stock purchases.
Woot woot.
But it'll only be a profit if they book it and if things go down fast, I see financials diving quicker than most.
A nuclear Iran scares the hell out of all the countries in the Middle East. A few MOABs carefully dropped would be the end of it, with a few terrorist attacks and the obligatory condemnation from the Arab League (and a pat on the back for taking them out).
josap wrote:
Mostly USD... sometimes I'd ask for pesos but then got a shitty exchange rate. The logic was that they would have to go all the way back to the bank to get more pesos - there were a lot more dollars in circulation there.
sm_landlord
I don't know the process between futures and usable copper like in the form of wire, but I can tell you that the price only went down briefly. I have heard complaints about it from an electrician myself. They lower their quotes because demand disappeared (or reverted to maintenance instead of upgrades and new installs which are more profitable), then copper skyrockets, and they barely can quote to cover their costs cause some dumb upstart company that is still around quotes even lower.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html#5years
Hoopajoops LTD
Yeah, I believe I have had the same conversation. Try to start with the simple explanation of a credit bubble. Quote total debt to GDP of 175% that caused the great depression, and one now that is what 350%? Then explain those that benefited the most during the run up -- the ones who benefited from high leverage whether they be RE owners or CEOs of publicly listed companies -- will hurt the most in the unwinding of credit. By necessity, manufacturing will grow as a share of GDP -- which doesn't necessarily mean those workers' standard of living will increase, just that their personal ranking among Americans will increase. Then explain that the US is too large of an economy to freeze out or punish, and that if all international trade ceased it would benefit the US economy the most. The US has natural resources, speaks english, relatively good demographics, key geographic location whatever does happen, and some other reasons why there will something to look forward to.
.
l8r folks (that is pronounced later for you blue hairs : ) )
i don't think we see IndyMac style bank runs or failures. instead, the bank runs will come from deposit attrition. e.g. CDs (both brokered and standard) not deciding to roll over, especially in the Big 19 start leverage TBTF by subsidizing deposit rates (e.g Ally Banks above average CD rate).
Completely agree. We should be getting our people out of Afghanistan as soon as possible and let the neighboring countries sort it out. T
when we were in germany(i was a small child) we used script at px and such,and local currency for locals. is script still in use, dont think it is but dont know. think dollar is used?
EHP doin the lucid callback thread....
thnxbro l8trz
Only 1 BF? Sheesh, I thought CR had his people on that.
gabyfan,
They were Military Payment Certificates, issued until the end of the Vietnam War
Take a trip down memory lane...
Military Payment Certificate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ecuador & Panama might be smarter... I work w/ companies in Mexico & they tell me the peso is so hopelessly tied to the dollar as to be indistinguishable. A true dollar proxy... not officially pegged but hopelessly tied.
That wasn't the case when Mexico was a big time oil exporter - and also more self-sufficient agriculturally. The maquilladore connection & oil fields running out changed all that.
Another insightful post from Jesse:
Jesse
steelhead doin the jesse...
makin copies....
Imagine Ecuador?
They got rid of the Sucre, as it just kept getting pounded by hyperinflation, and they gave up on it, and now a decade later, they might get pounded again by the same scourge.
Yep...tacit admission that the loser 19 would topple over if the Fed took back some of the injected capital.
Las Vegas tunnel people:
The people living in drains below Las Vegas | The Sun |Features
Las Vegas tunnel people
Morlocks!
Mortal locks
jd
thanks couldnt remember what they were called.
This entre waiting game is all about the crap last weeK;
F.D.I.C. May Borrow Funds From Banks - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
FDIC is broke and they can't continue playing the game ....... so regulation of shit banks with toxic waste will be placed on hold, until Timmy re-writes the rules and spins the constitution like a bottle.
IMHO, look for fewer closures and an increase in dead banks.
IMHO, look for fewer closures and an increase in dead banks. - DH
= Japan.
Obama never really understood anything about Afghanistan. Even back during the campaign, he was always talking about the "war againast Al Queda," not the Taliban.
It was a good slogan to talk about ending the war in Iraq and focusing on Afghanistan. It got votes at the time.
Obama is shallow. He gives great speeches, but he doesn't do or decide anything. Even the 3-ring circus today at the UN condemning Iran looked staged and stupid.
The American people are starting to see through Obama. They are fed up with his coddling of bankers and Wall Street. That's why you are seeing the increasing angry attacks in Congress against the Fed. Pretty soon, the attacks on the Fed will spread to the streets.
The Fed bigwigs soon will need police protection when they walk on the streets or appear in public.
Camp grounds, tunnels, city parks, river sides, abandoned properties.
Not sure what to say. Except i own a tent and plenty of camping equipment.
It will come in handy for backyard camping when the utilities don't function.
Well, if we have no utilities I can't stay in the back yard. Need water to survive.
Well there's still life around the nation's military bases.
Kind of.
For now.
I agree. I was just in Mexico. While it's experiencing the recession, too, the Mexicans are a lot more resilient than most Americans.
When Mexicans aren't making money in a downturn, they don't spend money. Nobody will lend them anything, so they know how to cut back. They don't borrow lots of money to buy houses they can't afford. They pay cash to build houses they can afford.
They take care of each other and can live off the land, if necessary. Labor is still relatively cheap, so employers are willing to hire, even if temporarily. Mexicans are pretty sweet and resourceful people, on the whole.
Well, I had to turn down an arrangement today with one of the banks on this list, to help it lower its required capital. At least the other people involved now appreciate the insolvency risk.
That bank in GA, with $2 bn of assets and a loss ration of 45% (with a loss-sharing agreement, presumably to hide even more losses). WTF? And we are still shoveling money at this pitiful excuse for a banking sector?
That's what Fiji bottled water is for.
scone,
That does seem contradictory at first, but your 100% right about America re-playing the bank failure model which Japan provided, and thus the 10 year solution....
I h8t teh Eagles
What Recession
¿
3 edit failure+1
Senior regulators say they are seriously considering a plan to have the nation’s healthy banks lend billions of dollars to rescue the insurance fund that protects bank depositors
I certainly hope this is just a trial balloon, which has been promptly shut down.
From the bank perspective, lending to the FDIC is the same as buying Treasuries (assuming that the interest on the FDIC debt will be higher than yield on Treasuries would be too funny)
From the Treasury perspective, the difference is the impact on the reported federal debt.
MrM,
Something tells me this is a way to pump up GDP during the jobless recovery...
So Hanky Paulson promised us 100s of banks...gotta shove billions into his friends coffers....so far not so much
Glad we spent a near trillion to suspend the sky from falling....
Something tells me this is a way to pump up GDP during the jobless recovery...
How would lending by banks instead of Treasury help GDP?
If anything, it will leave banks with less cash for commercial lending, no?
josap wrote:
Hopefully it isn't expensive camping equipment - your $400 mountain tent might look like a couple weeks of meals to somebody else.
Seriously - it wasn't uncommon in the 70s to do a day hike and come back and find out 'somebody' stumbled on to your camp and cleaned you out - if they were nice they'd leave you enough food to get back... they weren't always very nice.
Well, the wife and kids are visiting relatives, and I'm home alone. So you know what that means:
Run to the grocery store for a giant bag of imitation crab meat, dipping sauce, and a case of diet coke and spend the evening sorting through my movies and songs.
I feel like a king.
Yah, I'm digging this. Banks like Goldman, JPM, Citi, WFC all will lend their TARP money back to FDIC and then use the interest for bonuses and record record EPS while helping save the banking system .... pretty sweet really, cause the conflict of interest and corruption will be swept under the rug by Obama, as he pats them on the back, saying heck of a job....
re: F.D.I.C. May Borrow Funds From Banks
So here is how it works:
Step 1. Borrow at .25%
Step 2. Lend at 5.25
Step 3. Rape the system
Step 4. Place thumb on nose and wiggle your fingers
Step 5. Leave the country
*I feel like a king. *
Except that I go with Classic Coke,...I know how you feel.
how is it any different then the current set-up?
It's the simple pleasures. And with that, I'll be back in 5 or 10 as I desperately need a refill.
noob - Id have the tunes blaring and pizza ordered and....well enjoy!
Noob, do you really want to die that bad?
Rumsfeld/Aspertine/Searle FDA rape? bring back memories?
not to mention that he said he had lost a few Trillion bucks @ the DOD the day b4911.
shit. must all be coincidence.
forget it.
Me? Im having a beer. Or two.Or threeeeee.
MrM,
I don't know, it just smells that way and after the deal is cooked, anything can happen.
Nonetheless, wiki says:
GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports − imports), or,
GDP = C + I + G + (X − M).
See: If a hotel is a private home, spending for renovation would be measured as consumption, but if a government agency converts the hotel into an office for civil servants, the spending would be included in the public sector spending, or G.
MrM wrote:
Only have to do it until Nov 2010... just a little over a year. Oh ya then again in late 2011 until Nov 2012... but not 'permanent'.
scone,
That does seem contradictory at first, but your 100% right about America re-playing the bank failure model which Japan provided, and thus the 10 year solution.... - DH
Aw, shucks!
I'm beginning to think TPTB are choosing universal zombification of the banking system, as the only alternative to mass panic and hysteria. And what's worse, I'm not even sure I disagree, given the lack of real (i.e. politically possible) alternatives.
Also see: GDP Goosed By TARP (Maybe) | The Big Picture
The answer? TARP. It turns out that the TARP money given to banks as recapitalization was a major factor in the total GDP number. (but see update below)
How? Uncle Sam buying a financial asset does not contribute to GDP under normal circumstances. But the Treasury purchased these assets at prices discounted to market prices. (Not as cheap as Buffett’s purchases, but still at somewhat of a discount)...."
Refreshing honesty from the Mayor of Detroit about what the future is and not what we want it to be. Probably cost him the election and be an object lesson for other politicos.
Tough Love Approach of Detroit's Mayor Proves a Risky Path to Election - NY Times
++++
Caught your response previous thread EHP. Thanks.
last one:
Is this a change?
Tax incentives to re-securitize existing securitized loans.
Securitized Brokered Deposit Iz
be careful what you say, I got friends in this town
White Liar
edit +3 failure
Maybe the FDIC server crashed?
FDIC: Failed Bank List
Maybe this is part of the jobless recovery?
andimdone.kthnxbye
Old stale news:
Meredith Whitney: 'Roaring' Recovery? Unlikely - ABC News
Whitney is also holding onto a dour prediction she made this summer about Wall Street: So far, 92 U.S. banks have failed this year, and Whitney says she expects 300 more medium and small banks to join them
(09-25) 19:12 PDT Conroe, Texas (AP) --
A U.S. Marshals Service spokesman says jailed Texas billionaire R. Allen Stanford is being treated at a hospital after being injured during a fight with another inmate.
Deputy U.S. Marshal Alfredo Perez said Stanford was being treated Friday after a Thursday altercation at the private Joe Corley Detention Facility in Conroe about 40 miles north of Houston.
Perez says the 59-year-old's injuries aren't life threatening but declined to discuss details of the altercation. He says the incident is under investigation.
Stanford attorney Kent Schaffer says he hadn't talked with his client as of Friday evening but had been told the injuries aren't serious.
Stanford is charged with bilking investors of the now defunct Stanford Financial Group of more than $7 billion.
Doc, I spoke with some people in the research department at the St. Louis Fed about this back in February and they were very interested in learning the answer as well. They spent some time on it (at least that's what they told me) and decided that it was a canard.
@energyecon
Why haven't you been posting to your excellent blog lately?
An inquiring mind wants to know.
Re: "They spent some time on it (at least that's what they told me) and decided that it was a canard."
How depressing!
Hey, I'm just passing along what they told me. They did look into it. If you want their names I'd be happy to pass them along and you can talk to them yourself.
Somewhat off topic and off the beaten track, but still of value to all you rats having trouble tonight:
Julie's Health Club: Dye found in blue M&Ms may improve spinal injuries
cientists can't yet explain why green M&Ms seem to hold seductive powers or why the brown-hued chocolates appear to bring bad luck.
But new research shows that an artificial dye that is chemically similar to the one used in blue M&Ms may hold promise in treating spinal cord injuries, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
The compound, called Brilliant Blue G--was injected into the veins of rats within 15 minutes of receiving a paralyzing injury. The rats given the BBG solution temporarily turned blue and regained their ability to walk, albeit with a limp. The rats who didn't receive the dye also recovered, but to a lesser extent than rats that received BBG
Finally, this song fits in .....
Okay, you've all inspired me. I realized that years and years of apartment living means I haven't really cranked my music in far too long. That has been rectified tonight. And even though it's recorded in stereo, my home theatre is somehow converting it to surround. I am not also commenting on CR on the big screen, instead of the regular computer. The imitation crab meat is delicious, although the sauce is not up to par but I'm not complaining.
Thanks all for the suggestions.
so it's a one bank failure Friday?
you know I swear I'm like the guy at the craps table who keeps putting his money on the wrong numbers...
.....
watched the move The Hurt Locker last night. I think it's the first war movie made in some time by a woman
Kathryn Bigelow. Met her some years ago when she premiered Strange Days at NY Film Fest, she was with
James Cameron that night whom she later married. Very striking looking woman and a Columbia Film School grad
to boot.
I enjoyed the movie but it had a few flaws that seemed tactically wrong in engagement. That firefight they had with those snipers in the desert - don't they carry RPGs or mortars in their Humvee? and they didn't seem to know how to take cover properly...
mp,
No worries with you or the canard, but thanks for the feedback! have a goodnight
I think it's time for me to move on.
noob goldberg wrote:
Mmmmmm pollock!
i couldn't finish the hurt locker, was getting too nauseous watching it. my shaky-cam tolerance is very low...
Basel Too writes;
"my shaky-cam tolerance is very low... "
I can't wait for that fad to pass. I mean, Blair Witch is so last century...
The FDIC closing banks weekly does not add fertilizer to the green shoots the economy depends on currently. Here's a possible backdoor capitalization with the added ability of supporting the local power structures. Supporting continued fraud and corruption and not holding even the smallfry accountable is a long term mistake.
Fresh bailouts for smaller banks being weighed
My Way News - Fresh bailouts for smaller banks being weighed
Nothing but the best for tonight.
I long ago stopped trying to explain my irrational love for crab-flavoured pollock. It's just one of those things.
And I apologize for the spelling mistakes and grammatical errors, but although I love my home theatre PC I'm not used to this bluetooth portable keyboard at all. It types funny.
+10000. I almost threw the remote at my television when I was watching the bourne supremacy and they started using that stupid handheld camera for the fight scenes. Absolutely repulsive. I now just fast forward through all the fight scenes because I just can't watch that horrible cinematography.
Cinematography shoudl never be a distracting element to a movie, except for to the most sadistic of directors and then only with adequate advance warning.
don't blame it solely on Blair Witch, the real culprit is Jean Luc Godard's use of the hand held camera
in A Bout Souffle (sp?) aka Breathless in '59. He did it for purely budgetary reasons.
... did like the on the moon allusion in the opening and closing - half wanted to hear Walking on the Moon in that last
scene.
Funny, you saw but 2 aircraft in the entire film. You'd think if you were pinned down you'd call up an airstrike like in
Nam... maybe they don't do that stuff anymore...
.....
Shaky hand held has really annoyed me on TV cop shows...
"Cinematography shoudl never be a distracting element to a movie, except for to the most sadistic of directors and then only with adequate advance warning."
I cling to hope. Now that 3D is the new fad for movies (and coming soon to a home theater near your couch), if directors or cinematographers try that ShakyCam stuff, the audiences will be literally losing their cookies. Technicolor Yawn time.
+10000. I almost threw the remote at my television when I was watching the bourne supremacy
Make that +1000000 for me. Big time nausea when they do that (which I assume is supposed to make up for lack of content) and esp. when they ruined bourne with it.
Also, hear you on the mini-vaca. I remember my S.O. took the 3 kids to his mother's for maybe 4 days when they were younger, and I thought heaven had opened up. I actually went to the Burger King drive thru and got a movie I wanted to watch for a change. It was bliss.
Altho it got lonely after the first day. It's great, in short doses.
"don't blame it solely on Blair Witch"
Well, OK, I will admit that ShakyCam was used to good effect in the Max Headroom series. That was late 1980s as I recall. But they only used it where it made sense, and in small doses.
Doc Holiday - I do not think that Treasury lending to the FDIC would be counted as government spending.
My wife and kids usually visit the inlaws or my parents when I'm away for more than a day or two on business. That way she gets a hand with the kids and they get distracted and don't drive her up the wall after the 2nd day. So usually I'm not home to enjoy it
But it has been a week, and I definitely debated driving the four hours tonight just to see them again. Ah well, one more night and I'll see 'em tomorrow.
One measly bank - pizza places need stimulus too dammit!
Yeah, what a BFF disappointment. For the money we've poured into them, you'd think they could entertain us better...
for the hell of it I took that scene where Jason Bourne is fighting that Arab guy in Morocco
and loaded it on my editor to see how many cuts they used... far too many which made the fight
seem unreal...
Hitchcock employed about 87 cuts in the Janet Leigh shower scene in Psycho - which worked
brilliantly. my guess is that he had to do it that way to keep the scene from being too graphic
for ratings approval... could be wrong, also the multiple cuts obscured the ID of the killer and
the obvious nudity
Enjoy your evening dryfly.
I'm completely distracted with organizing movies and cleaning up my HTPC, so I'll say
as well.
maybe they've learned te hard way to think more than one move ahead
One more comment from my nightly news check:
Pot Smokers In Keene Protest Drug Laws - New Hampshire News Story - WMUR Manchester
About 80 people rallied in Keene on Friday, as they had earlier in the week, to advocate for decriminalizing marijuana.
I must be running in the wrong group. I never heard of this movement in our state.
Well, that seems to be all the BFs for this evening.
If you don't like pollock, try the canard. We have in diet, next to cocktail napkins.
When liars like Limbaugh and Beck
Pollute all our airwaves with dreck,
Day after day
In the most casual way,
It's no wonder this country's a wreck.
barfly
+1
Taken From Ghost's post last thread:
If anyone is curious, the bill's information is: H.R.2918: Legislative Branch Appropriations Act, 2010. If you want to see how your representative voted, you can check here.
Sadly, I was enraged enough to draft an angry letter to my Congressman and will email/fax it on Monday. It was a vote strictly along party lines, but the fact that they decided to put an amendment to give themselves a budget increase was enough to make me...
Blair Witch Project...Bair ??? Project
There is a joke there, I just don't see it yet
Did you guys realize that Obama extended the 9/11 National Emergency against terrorism yesterday?
You mean Which Project? Solving the insolvent bank problem or the insolvent FDIC problem?
(Best I could do for you.)
From Congressional Record (maybe 9/22?)
To the Congress of the United States:
Section 202(d) of the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1622(d)) provides for the automatic termination of a national emergency unless, prior to the anniversary date of its declaration, the President publishes in the Federal Register and transmits to the Congress a notice stating that the emergency is to continue in effect beyond the anniversary date. In accordance with this provision, I have sent to the Federal Register for publication the enclosed notice, stating that the national emergency with respect to persons who commit, threaten to commit, or support terrorism is to continue in effect beyond September 23, 2009.
The crisis constituted by the grave acts of terrorism and threats of terrorism committed by foreign terrorists, including the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, in New York and Pennsylvania and against the Pentagon, and the continuing and immediate threat of further attacks on United States nationals or the United States that led to the declaration of a national emergency on September 23, 2001, has not been resolved. These actions pose a continuing unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. For these reasons, I have determined that it is necessary to continue the national emergency declared with respect to persons who commit, threaten to commit, or support terrorism, and maintain in force the comprehensive sanctions to respond to this threat.
Barack Obama.
The White House, September 21, 2009.
and today they apprehended multiple terrorists! renewal is already paying dividends..
PATRIOT and its bastard brethren laws should be put down. If the mobs riot in D.C., I hope they burn every physical copy of those awful laws.
.
The only thing I despise more than Wall Street Bailouts and TBTF are laws that remove our protections from an over-zealous power structure. I'm looking at you suspension of habeas corpus.
(taking tinfoil hat off) How could he not, if these guys just arrested for wanting to blow buildings up are fer real, what's he supposed to do?
And the midterms coming up...
Any excuse, but that ol saw never goes away.
C
/too bad about the lousy BFF. And I'd just got the hotel system worked out.
Do you think the recent announcements of all the terrist plots in Dallas & NYC that have been revealed over the last couple of days were a co-inky-dink?
Was browsing this thread on my phone without logging in and boy was that an unfortunate revalation.
Frank Rich would have a field day with the coinkydinks. Did last time. Sold a lot of books on it. Maybe will again?
C
dern, should've left the tinfoil hat for the last comment.
Only one??? snif.
My nightmare closing finished at 11:30 EST.
The loan was a no brainer, the Seller and Buyer were nice and liked each
other.
There were a ridiculous amount of trash forms to sign.
The lender didn't approve my figures until after 7; then I had to drive an hour
to get there, which was luckily towards Merritt Island. But I'm too tired; stopped
on the way.
I conclude that the real estate market in South Florida CAN'T recover because
the lenders can't process fha loans fast enough to make a market. And no
conventionals are available. I don't expect this to change anytime soon.
All my closings have been bad. If it gets any worse than this, nothing will
close at all. It's really that bad.
homedad43: I have been puzzling out the implications of the Fed reverse repo talk.
Here is where I came out. I would be interested in your and others opinions if me reasoning makes sense.
Background:
Fed does a repo:
Before the transaction, Fed has cash; MMFND has securities.
After the transaction, Fed has the securities, MMFND has the cash.
Fed does a reverse repo:
Before the transaction, Fed has the securities; MMFND has the cash.
After the transaction, Fed has the cash; MMFND has the securities.
The paperwork to setup a repo or a reverse repo are basically the same. Once you get all the agreements and procedures in place, you can metaphorically do a reverse repo by turning the trading machine's crank clockwise and a repo by turning it counter-clockwise.
So the Fed has builds a Wonderful Repo/Reverse Repo Machine (tm). They will test it out by doing some small reverse repos and tell all the inflation hawks to stop worrying. They have the money supply under control. If inflation takes off, they simply suck the excess liquidity out of the system using the Wonderful Repo/Reverse Repo Machine (tm). See they they have tested it and it works just fine.
Scenerios:
Assume that you are the Fed and you saw the money markets seize up last fall when there was a run on money market funds which necessitated massive injections of liquidity and an explicit government guarantee of money fund deposits.
Further assume that the government guarantee is expiring, but the risk of another run on money market funds is still possible/probable.
Usually, when the Fed needs to inject liquidity, it does so through its primary dealers and they in turn get the money, you hope, where it is needed.
It is very inefficient and might not work. If the MMFNDs need to raise cash in a hurry, they would call the primary dealers to sell securities. The primary dealers might not answer their phones. If they do answer the phones, they will low ball the price. This will assure that MMFNDs "break the buck" and accelerate the run.
So Fed looks around for an alternative to get funds needed for MMFND redemptions into the MMFNDs without destroying the short-term debt markets or the primary dealers. They cannot risk destroying the primary dealers. The primary dealers are critical to Treasury debt sales. No primary dealers; no Treasury debt sales. No Treasury debt sales; no Federal paychecks, social security payments. Fuggly!!
Someone at the Fed remembers that they just built the Wonderful Repo/Reverse Repo Machine (tm). It is a two'fer: turn the crank clockwise, it sucks cash out of the MMFNDs; turn the crank counter-clockwise, it pumps cash into the MMFNDs.
If a run starts on MMFNDs, the Fed will inject sufficient cash to meet redemptions into the MMFNDs by turning the crank like crazy and pumping cash into the MMFNDs like a firehose.
NW
That stuff always makes my head spin, norka.
Seems that one thing just cancels the other.
My only thought is one more of human experience than anything as sound or technical as your post: if it is too good to be true, it probably is.
.
If they have figured out a way to turn on a dime and handle either situation, then we may be on the path towards a new paradigm into macroeconomics and financing. However, it seems one chip in a gear or one clogged chain, and the process will b0rk everything faster than before.
.
Nothing fuels fear faster than a false sense of security exposed.
the reverse repo is basically an OMO using MBS instead of treasuries to drain cash. the hole that i see is default, since the fed is guaranteeing the credit risk.
ouch!
.
That is one helluva chip in a gear! I can only imagine what the MM funds will do if that little gremlin sticks its head up. We will weep like Eric for our MMFs!
Makes perfect sense just as long as they don't have a black box working the "crank". Apparently it took a crisis for the Fed to discover high finance.
I'm assuming this is Warsh's handiwork, so expect a new flood of Doc Holiday cut n pastes.
And nothing fuels arbitrage quicker than a game seen in advance by the participants as too important to fail.
Chalk up another one to take to the cleaners.
At T minus 3 that's it from me.
nytol
C
I guess that i should have been plainer.
I think that the Fed is building the Wonderful Repo/Reverse Repo Machine (tm) so they can bailout the MMFNDs, if necessary.
IMHO, they are just claiming that it is for draining liquidity so everyone doesn't freak out.
NW
The fact that they would need to bail out the MMFs is bad enough. However, everyone is on edge at the moment so I think anything can spook the herd. Ben's press doesn't have the ability to help people sleep at night.
Don't know much about the mechanism, but the term "reverse repo" gets me.
I just picture some "Reverse Repo Man" going into the bank and putting all sorts of old boats, cars, and other stuff in place of the cash they have... "sorry, your cash was repossessed..."
I guess the banks will just be flowing the garbage CP to people... "we don't have cash, but the Fed gave us all this CP that we pawned off on them, that they just reverse repo'd back to us..."
It'll be like real-estate-roulette when you go to the ATM... "Aww crap, the paper I got is a legal-tender note of a mortgage slice from South Florida..." going down to the store... "Can I give you this garbage CP for bread?"
Maybe that's not at all like what is actually being talked about, but that's how I picture it in my head...
Time for a reverse plate-o'-shrimp.
Exact mechanism would be different, but the effect might be the same.
I still haven't gotten to bed.
Norka, what you're proposing makes perfect sense to me, although I haven't read the proposal. Perhaps you could provide a link so those of us who are interested can read it tomorrow.
I don't see why it couldn't work as you described.
As far as default risk is concerned, they haven't let that stop them up to now.
Why should anything change? It's called the "TOO BIG TO FAIL DOCTRINE."
And, make no mistake, it's doctrine now.
mp: two links
Fed May Borrow From Money Market Funds, Report Says - DealBook Blog - NYTimes.com
FT.com / US / Economy & Fed - Fed eyes tie-up with mutual funds
the default risk is not a problem per se, just more evidence that the plan is more to benefit the MMMF an less about draining liquidity.
Sorry, LL.
NW
I must be running in the wrong group. I never heard of this movement in our state.
My Grandfather lived within site of lake Winnipesaukee his whole life. He once told me that when he was a boy (would have been around 1910) he used to cut a piece off the neighbor's boat house and smoke it whenever they were feeling the need for a good time.