Report: Mortgage Delinquencies increase in August
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Mon, 09/21/2009 - 8:25am (83 comments)
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1st
Does this surprise anyone?
Umm... and 2
CR says....we have to be a little careful. I say, why start now!?!?! Lever up people!
But seriously...those mods? Im sure they're working out REAL well. Given when a lot of that started, they may actually ADD to the rates of default later this year since a huge share are going to just be delayed foreclosures. All depends on the timing, but ultimately, they'll make the past problem look worse in the future.
banana, 2 banana
Housing led the first cliff dive pulling everything down with in its wake. It was hoocoodanode for economists because that never happened before. This time even that excuse won't fly.
With every new delinquency, a little part of my moniker feels it's pain.
Americans Now View Congress As Least Respected Job
No brain, know pain
Know brain, no pain
Anybody else think this may be a conflict of (our) interest?
Obama open to newspaper bailout bill
Rising unemployment is supposedly a lagging indicator. Mortgage delinquencies is a leading indicator. But this article states that rising unemployment is leading to more mortgage delinquencies.
In a revised forecast, Foresight Analytics projects that the national office vacancy rate will hit 18.4% by year’s end, up from an earlier prediction of 17.5%. As businesses hard hit by the financial crisis began to struggle in late 2008, they shed more space than anticipated, according Susan Persin, a partner with the Oakland Calif.-based research firm.
In tandem with rising office vacancies, estimates for job losses among office space users rose to 1.6 million for 2009, up from a previous estimate of 1.2 million to 1.5 million.
Office Fundamentals Fall Quicker Than Expected, Says Foresight Analytics
If the Edmunds' prediction for 8.8 Million SAAR auto sales for September ( Edmunds.com Analyzes September Auto Pricing and Sales Trends: Predicts SAAR ) is correct, then aren't GM and Ford going to be laying off all those workers they just recalled? What a mess.
Will this show the administration that they ought to stay out of the housing and auto markets, or will they interpret as we must continue our interventions?
Is this due to an end to foreclosure moratoriums or just a continuation of earlier cliff-diving?
Loan delinquencies are between 7-10% of all loans, rising, accelerating, and the NAR wants to convince me that NOW is the best time to buy because of the (unfair) $8k tax credit?
I'll buy in 2-4 years when the market has reflected the high prices, and associated high delinquincies through the foreclosure and short sale process and has resulted in affordable homes.
I'm not paying for 30 years (longer than Ive been alive) for some wood and chinese drywall. Thats not living.
Yes, I'm saying that almost all 'good' politicians, in the sense of being able to be re-elected with relative ease, are, absolutely. In fact, I would consider it almost a prerequisite, unless you're already famous for some other reason.
While I've never met him and tested him on this, apparently the past Prime Minister of Canada, Jean Chretien, was like this. I was talking to a Department of Defence officer one time, who had met Chretien for all of 30 seconds and during that time shook his hand, said his name, and which area where he worked. This officer (who dealt with terrorism-related concerns) ran into him again a couple of years later while providing support to the RCMP, and as Chretien walked out of the Parliament buildings, looked over, saw this guy, and said 'hey John, long time no see', before walking over and shaking his hand.
No matter what your views on a specific policy may be, if a powerful politician looks over at you and remembers your name, he's probably got your vote, and maybe the vote of your entire family
Edmunds was pretty good in its August call .. a little too bearish, but better than most.
Buggy, Horse, Reins, Whip = Movies, Newspaper, Television, Radio
"Once the Fed exits the market,..."
Will it?
Sh#t, I'd be more concerned that he might remember all the crap I blogged about him....LOL
My recognition of the need for a cleansing of the credit markets and flushing of bad investment decisions has always been somewhat tempered by the pain I know this process would cause a great number of people.
But if this is seriously being considered, screw it. We're done like dinner, so flush away.
Nope, the politician would probably not be aware of that at all. For those sorts of indiscretions, you need to be deathly afraid of his/her chief of staff
doesn't buffett own a bunch of newspapers?
It was hoocoodanode for economists because that never happened before. This time even that excuse won't fly.
Rob Dawg,
Two related questions.
1) If a tree falls in the woods and nobody is around to hear it, does it make any noise?
2) If the Fed buys AAA (cough) mortgage paper that subsequently loses value due to defaults, is there an actual loss?
These indicators are part of a "model" that is used to predict the upcoming behavior of the economy for planning purposes. The fact that it's a model indicates that
* it's a simplification
* the results are only as good as the model
* or as good as the data put into the model
It reminds me of the small signal models used to predict the stability of control systems. These models work quite well for small signals, but are often woefully inadequate for larger disturbances. That's one reason that I always insist on doing a step response on any power supply I design and/or test, though many of the guys with hot-$#it degrees from big name schools rely strictly on frequency domain small signal analysis. It's always fun to show them their oscillating system that was calculated to be perfectly stable
Juvenal Delinquent,
Newspaper is surely dead, but if you think television is going anywhere, you're severely delusional.
Watching the DOW and TSX today, I'm realizing that it's all about your mental state. You just can't keep a happy positive market down for long.
We may see
within the next few minutes if the bounce holds....
1) No; the vibrations in the air don't become sound until an observer "hears" them
2) No; the loss has already occurred. The default is just a realization of that loss
..or were those supposed to be rhetorical questions?
Remember that financial lubricant called advertising revenue?
If it looks more like YouTube in terms of it's on-demand availability with few/no commercials, is it still TV?
Perhaps it will still be technically 'television', but it is going to be unrecognizable to anyone from the 1960's. The television will be nothing more than the monitor on an internet content delivery system. There are already many homes where this is already the case.
"Housing led the first cliff dive pulling everything down with in its wake. It was hoocoodanode for economists because that never happened before. This time even that excuse won't fly."
And now, increasingly, their hypothetical "rational man" is considering at his option-ARM mortgage, his reset, the current value of his house, probably future interest rates.... and walking away.
"WAIT, you weren't supposed to be THAT rational!"
No worries; you've already been reported to flag@whitehouse.org
Eventually, somebody is going to require that YouTube turn cash-flow positive.
That should put you in the running for QOTD.
The newspaper biz is already a non-profit operation. They just can't face that fact. Wall Street (and those who sold the papers to hedgies) wanted and thought they'd get 15% net profit numbers because the papers were monopolies (for the most part) and could get monopoly stock prices. That was delusional, given the obvious facts that internet competition would drive out monopoly pricing.
Instead the newspapers have laid off their reason for existing: reporters and editors that gather facts, opinions and other info and now are just shells of news organizations dependent on an ever smaller set of advertisers.
Having GE own NBC, MSNBC, CNBC (in part) hasn't done a single positive thing for news reporting. They get us Larry Kudlow, Brian Williams, and the rest of the meme-repeating, do-no-homework crowd.
Having News Corporation own the Wall Street Journal, NY Post, Faux News etc has put news in the propaganda biz.
I don't want government subsidies for newspapers. But saying that their future may be tied to be non-profits that don't pay taxes is worth serious consideration.
The alternative: no newspapers, or stupid reporting that avoids doing 'reporting' isn't a bright prospect either.
Rising unemployment is supposedly a lagging indicator.
I'll be interested to see whether this 'truism' holds up in debt-ladened, potentially deflationary, environment.
Well then substitute Hulu for the grim, pixilated YouTube.
Video on demand killed the TV star.
They said the same thing about the housing industry
Triple Whammys are 50% better than Double Whammys! Says so right there in the Philly Fed Index.
I thought the WSJ was doing okay. No?
Not if you consider the Murdoch subsidies.
"Yes, I'm saying that almost all 'good' politicians, in the sense of being able to be re-elected with relative ease, are, absolutely. In fact, I would consider it almost a prerequisite, unless you're already famous for some other reason."
That is a great skill. For those less skilled, you can bet their staff has provided a briefing sheet with history for all key guests they're likely to meet at any important social function, with photo. We do that for our alpha leader when he's in fundraising mode.
lol.
Keyword = "eventually". Since I didn't give a date, nobody will ever prove me wrong. And if I turn out to be right, somebody will give me economist's credentials for having such keen insight.
Last year this could have been a problem. But with today 3-4 letter alphabet soup there must be a way to get the banks whole no matter how many people default on their loans.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Mon, 9/21/2009 - 8:45 am
1) If a tree falls in the woods and nobody is around to hear it, does it make any noise?
2) If the Fed buys AAA (cough) mortgage paper that subsequently loses value due to defaults, is there an actual loss?
I guess the meta question is whether the ones and zeros in the US Treasury are excersizable demands on goods and services.
Note that the Fed barely buys any Ginnies, which of course have full faith and credit. There is a market for Ginnies.
This foot-dragging on Fannie and Freddie, and Bernanke's enabling of it, will ultimately cost Bernanke his job.
2.The FTHB credit will be extended and expanded.
3. Rising foreclosures will swamp both 1 and 2. Property values will fall 15-20% from here.
Once you've gotten a certain age-group used to getting it for free, paying for the privilege seems like prostitution.
Do you have data to back that up? Not arguin', just wonderin'-
When I attend social functions with our alpha leader, he's long beforehand worked out a series of signals to help bail him out of a name-blank situation. We'll simply walk over and fall on the grenade by introducing ourselves and asking their name (if they're new) or walk up and say their name during our introduction if our industrious leader should already know it. That's the benefit of having staff
EDIT: Oops, forgot the quote.
"News" wants to be free. Reporters want to be paid. Advertisers want resulting sales (eyeballs).
Craigs List gave many advertisers what they wanted. YouTube gives many viewers what they want.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Mon, 9/21/2009 - 8:56 am
the Fed will not exit the market until at least 2011. they may exit temporarily, but will be forced to resume purchases as agency MBS rates spread out 100bps+
CR reported one source 50bps and predicted himself 35bps. With all due respect to all involved I find even 100bps to be at the low end of the MBS over T spread. Without govt intervention the new risk models, reduced leverage multiples, balance sheet rebuilding, etc. in the banking sector will tend to over correcting to caution and wider margins.
Seriously, imagine how many people would have been laying awake at night if Bush and Cheney worked a crowd in 2004 where you were, saw you, and knew your name. Or even if u ran into em today and they knew ur name.
The paranois wingnuts & conspiracy theories would be deafening.
Anybody ever go to Hearst Castle?
It's amazing, opulent and showy, except it never got finished.
William Randolph ran out of money...
We can only hope to be so lucky with Rupert~
Since those guys often spoke to pre-screened audiences, the audience members would probably feel pretty good. Perhaps not so for the public in general.
The newspaper subsidies will come from high speed internet taxes being raised. Count on it.
Rupert is on the short road to his maker. His son is an unknown. News Corporation isn't long for the world as a single entity. That's what heirs do: sell off the family jewels.
Juvenal, do you know the D. Parker/San Simeon housewarming tale?
[if you're going to be OT, be blatant I always think.]
When this market falls apart, and fall apart it will the decline is going to be stunning. I am so glad I finally saw the light and dumped my srs last week. It's like comedy checking the market and seeing it make back 70 points in 15 minutes.
Currently I pay $60/month for cable (yay duopolistic Canada) while simultaneously downloading 10-20GB of content per day. If someone would provide me a service for $40/month that gave me a simple interface to acquire my on-demand programming when I wanted in the format I wanted, I would move there in an instant.
Currently Rogers (the company in Canada) does offer some minor on-demand programming, but the interface is horribly clunky and very very slow. If I download the content to my multiple-terabyte server, I can scroll through my content on my home-theatre PC effortlessly.
Someone will crack that profitability/usability nut, and we'll be off to the races (money wise) again.
I was reading the LA Times (South-Bay edition), while eating breakfast @ a restaurant in Torrance a few months ago.
The employment section had 17 jobs available, in it's 2 columns...
I think a high end limit for mortgage rates without Fed purchases are current jumbo rates, which are about 100bp higher. Way back in 2006, that spread was about 25bp.
However, I expect the spread of all mortgages to treasuries to increase. Investors are going to get more and more worried as they see home prices didn't really stabilize, at least in many parts of the country.
As prices continue to fall in CA, NV, AZ, FL & MI, jumbo loans in those places will become extremely difficult to get.
I guess the meta question is whether the ones and zeros in the US Treasury are excersizable demands on goods and services.
Even after all the stupidity, I'd answer your question with a yes. For me, the fall in asset values does not signal that our money is becoming worthless. It's more a realization that the future will be smaller than many delusionally believed.
We're witnessing a deleveraging of balance sheets AND outlooks to more realistic levels. Reverse leverage is a bummer, no? The fed is indeed immorally bailing out financial idiocy and fraud, but that is not the same as hyper-inflating.
burnside,
Not aware of it, do tell..
My goal is to know all of their staff, if possible. I would be deeply disturbed if a politician knew my name, because it would mean that somehow I upstaged my elected official in being 'remembered' by the person. If a politician caught my arm and knew my name, I would know pretty much instantly that one of his staff probably tweaked him beforehand. But that doesn't change the fact that some politicians really are almost savants toward name/face recognition.
Everyone has to be good at something, and usually for politicians that 'something' is not policy analysis. Obviously.
why is aig up 10% today? Here's why...
AIG up on hope government may ease bailout again - MarketWatch
Rep. Edolphus Towns, D-N.Y., chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, has told the panel's staff to review a proposal put forward by former AIG Chief Executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg to restructure the insurer's government rescue package, Bloomberg News reported Monday on its Web site. Greenberg is proposing a lower interest rate on government loans, more time to repay the debt, and a reduction of the government's stake in AIG, Bloomberg reported. Greenberg met with Towns last week, and Towns may start talks with the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve on the Greenberg proposal, Bloomberg said
I left off my smiley face.
The funny thing is, that just about every last audience that King George II showed up for, was a cloistered audience, usually government employees, whose mouths might have wanted to say something, but whose continued employment overrode their nerves.
Coast Guard appearance in Philly, National Park appearances in Sequoia and Everglades, any old military group, etc.
You get the idea...
Needs code or euphemism.
Dorothy Parker was invited out to SS which, as you may know, was designed so that Millicent Hearst's rooms were exceedingly separate from those intended for Marion Davies. Confronted with the guestbook, Parker penned
Upon my honor
I saw a Madonna
Standing in a niche
Above the door
Of the first-class w6*#e
Of a first-class son-of-a-b&2!h.
To save me the repetitive-strain injury of once again consulting google, does anyone have the total mortgage number off the top of their head?
A 0.26% increase doesn't seem like much, but I'm curious how that translates into absolute numbers.
Jim, I'm amazed at how much entertainment my 12yo son and his buddies get out of YouTube. I get the feeling that his friends spend as much time watching YouTube as they do watching cable TV. We don't have cable, so my son is stuck with movies, broadcast TV (right now only good for sports for him), and YouTube videos his friends show him or send links.
Your other comments regarding newspapers is spot on. The Houston paper is shell of its former self.
Housing led the first cliff dive pulling everything down with in its wake. It was hoocoodanode for economists because that never happened before. This time even that excuse won't fly.
Oh, come on, what are the odds of it happening again?!
Inconceivable.
My wife and I were on a month-long road-trip, chasing down indians from thousands of years ago in the Southwest, and i'm one of those people that needs a newspaper when I go out to eat. I feel somewhat naked without one. Little to medium newspapers content is 85% off the wire AP stuff, and about the only original content, is the letters to the editor.
Radio stations are few and far-between in quite a few nooks & crannies of the SW, and in many an area for a 20 miles radius, the only clear station that comes in, is Rush, or Glenn, or Sean, or some other puppet fomenting hate.
It's not as if people in little towns have a choice on their radio dial, off the beaten track.
cinco- missed the most important thing- models are based on the past!
They are guaranteed to break down at inflexion points. Now those don't happen often (they threaten to occur to more often than they do) so as betting person it is a good idea to bet against them. The operative question is whether this is truly an inflexion point or another head fake.
Speaking of the WSJ, I just finished up a one year introductory subscription for $99 and got a renewal notice for north of $200. I told them (twice now), I was not going to pay north of $200 for a previous $99 subscription. It's $99 or nothing as far as I am concerned. Just like I would never go back to paying $9 a pound for ribeye steak after buying it on sale for $5. The partys over for a lot of these retailers, they just haven't figured it out yet.
Ever listened to podcasts on an iPhone? Or read CR? Or listened to your personal musical tastes streamed via Pandora?
Choice is not going to be a problem.
In 1982, I took 3 master classes from a big name musician who was famous for his networking skills. Silly youth that I was, I payed careful attention to his technical advice without noticing his interesting ability to connect with each person. Keep in mind that I was one of 5-7 people in the room during the classes, each of which lasted perhaps two hours. This guy had hundreds of students, and would have had no particular reason to remember me, particularly as I never took a 1-on-1 lesson with him.
In 1997 I ran into the guy again. He said hello to me by name, without prompting.
Unbelievable. In one brief instant, it flashed on me why he had never had problems finding work over a period of 40 years.
nope - leading indicator of mortgage distress and credit deterioration...
We found a walk in tub the momster liked; just
have to have the hub look at it and find the flaws.
World saved!
Years ago I was on Charles Street, near downtown Balto, and
politico walked by. I had never met him so he didn't know who I
was, tho I knew who he was. there were maybe 3 people in greeting
distance on the street, random people, and he said hello to each of
them my name. They were thrilled.
His name began with a K, don't remember the rest. Guess I
would never get elected.
Like your handle but can't help thinking that it should have chupar somewhere
in it.
I have been reading this blog for years, but have never commented. I work for a nonprofit HUD certified counseling agency and I do foreclosure prevention in South Florida. I do understand this issue and understand how the Making Homes Affordable Program works. My experience leads me to believe that the major servicers/lenders do not want it to be sucessful. Since September 2008, we have gotten 108 affordable loan modification. None has re-defaulted. The payment model for foreclosure prevention is a crime. It does not pay for success, but only for numbers. Sorry my comments came so late in the tread.
Another test.