But this is priced in, right?

Solution: up the homebuyer tax credit to $20,000 next year.

how many option-ARMs could there be in Iowa that the AG there cares....

damn,

This one's pure eye candy:

Delta Goodrem - In This Life

From the link: "Real estate data firm RealtyTrac, in its August 2009 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, said foreclosure filings -- default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions -- were reported on 358,471 U.S. properties during the month, a decrease of less than 1 percent from the previous month, but an increase of nearly 18 percent from the same month a year ago."

I'm looking at my link
and wondering how one tracks down banks that will be connected to this stupidity?

My wife was in Des Moines recently and stated that it was a truly happenin' place.

And I had to periodically go on business to Sergeant Bluff, also very trendy in a Vermont Country Store sort of way.

Now, flying into Mason City at night sucked...too dark to see how the corn was being sucked up for development.

So? Why is he talking to the administration?

Are ARMs TBTF? Is this another irresponsible decision we need to bailout using responsible people's money?

Believe me, in Miller's mind, the consumer was always duped.

Icoodanode

"Las Vegas had the nation's highest foreclosure rate, with 16,798 filings, or one for every 47 housing units."

That pipsqueak Pavlovegas had over 2,000 more foreclosures than LA last month, is amazing...

I came across this map of income change:

Creative Class » Blog Archive » The Income Map - Creative Class

very useful info. Incomes go down, home values go down. This isn't rocket science.

Look at the increase in troubled assets from Q4 2007 ...... this puts the stock market bubble in total perspective, because yields are going down, and liquidity is going to freeze again, because the problem was not solved and the banking system will need to be nationalized; the PR and hype is all manufactured to go against the grain of this harsh reality and if yah aint watching banks fail, your in denial about where this is headed!

Amen, over and out on that rant..

Most of the ratio increases are astounding. From the frying pan into the tire.

With Crisis comes opportunity.

DALLAS (Reuters) - Wanted: a leader for the U.S. social conservative movement. Must be able to press all the right buttons, be a committed Christian and have a vision to propel the Republican Party back to power.

U.S. social and religious conservatives will be searching for someone to fill that void as they gather in Washington this Friday to Sunday for the fourth annual summit of self-styled "Values Voters."

Social conservatives riled but lack leader
| Reuters

---Now I've been around here long enough to know that some of you can do it.
Yes, you can!

Oh, Wells Fargo offered us a ARM today in the mail.

"It's the other shoe," he said.
'''''''''''''''''''''''''

How many shoes are there? Is the US a nation of millipedes?

After the Marcos family fled Malacañang Palace, Marcos was found to have left behind 15 mink coats, 508 gowns, 1000 handbags[15] and 3000 pairs of shoes.[16] In February 2006, Marcos insisted that her husband acquired his wealth legitimately as a gold trader. By the late 1950s, she claimed, he had amassed a personal fortune of 7,500 tons of gold, and after gold prices climbed in the 1970s, the Marcos family was worth $35 billion.[11] However, the Bureau of Internal Revenue has no record of the Marcos family declaring or paying taxes on these assets,[citation needed] and the source of their wealth remains open to investigation

The Republican party is intellectually bankrupt. That article says "the movement's demographic profile: it tends to be white, evangelical, rural, male and Southern"; if true, and I believe it is, then the GOP is history.

Bingo

On May 7, 2006, Wachovia Corporation (“Wachovia”) and Golden West Financial Corporation (“Golden West”) announced that they had entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger.

achovia Corporation (NYSE:WB) and Golden West Financial Corporation (NYSE: GDW), parent of World Savings Bank, said today they have signed a definitive agreement to merge, creating a leading retail banking and mortgage lending franchise in many of the nation’s most attractive growth markets. This combination strengthens Wachovia’s presence in California, Florida and Texas, and extends the banking franchise within reach of 55 percent of the U.S. population.
With the acquisition of Oakland, California-based Golden West, Wachovia will add 285 consumer banking offices with $62 billion in retail deposits in 10 states while entering new markets in California, Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Kansas and Nevada. The combined company, which will have assets of $669 billion and a market capitalization of $117 billion, will serve banking customers in 21 states and Washington, D.C. Wachovia will gain mortgage lending operations under the World Savings Bank name in 39 states.
“We believe this combination of our two companies, both known for exceptional customer service and pristine credit quality, will generate superior long-term growth in earnings per share,” said Ken Thompson, Wachovia chairman and chief executive officer, who noted that Golden West’s World Savings Bank is the nation’s only standalone savings and loan with a “AA” debt rating. “For four decades, Golden West has taken industry-wide challenges in stride and maintained a singular focus as a risk-averse residential mortgage portfolio lender. The result is an astonishing 25-year track record of 17 percent compound annual growth in earnings per share and virtually no credit losses realized even in the toughest year in its history.”
Herbert M. Sandler, Golden West chairman and chief executive officer, commented, “I’ve been a keen observer of the market and the mortgage and banking industries for nearly 40 years. Wachovia is the company we selected to entrust with our legacy as one of the nation’s most admired and trusted financial institutions. We share the same values of operating with integrity, putting customers first and encouraging teamwork.”

WACHOVIA CORP NEW (Form: 8-K, Received: 05/08/2006 11:36:59)

Mostly community banks on the list - I am beginning to think that the predictions that we will have half the number of banks after this mess is done is not too far off.

I noticed tonight that the small biz/retail die off has really accelerated around here. Some of the strip shopping centers are over 1/3 empty

We have lots of shoes in the closet.
All on the top shelf in a large messy pile.
As soon as you open the door they will all fall on your head.

Man, look at how many of the worst are in Georgia..

and don't you know it has to be because of the damned Jimmy Carter!

and don't you know it has to be because of the damned Jimmy Carter!

or those damn Canadians speculators

josap

Not malls. The barber shop, pizza, florist, yoga, paint shop kind

Thanks barfly.

Same here nova.

Also furniture stores and cheap jewlery places. Anything to do with upgrading the house / yard too.

While the focus has been on WFC residential lending, their commercial loan and construction loan portfolios are equally horrid. How much of that was Golden West vs. First Union/Wachovia or legacy Wells Fargo?

rosethorn

It only takes a few insane, very commited people to do an increadable amount of damage.
There are far too many people who are not bright enough to not follow people like them as well.

I had no idea Buffett would out-live Michael Jackson. Such is the life of a tax evasion bounty hunter.... Hello Berkshire Hathaway DD

DH PI ... where the F is UB?

JMO. Small biz was trying really hard to make it to the Christmas selling season. Some didn't, some figured out they wouldn't make it anyway and closed.

After the holidays I think we will see massive store closings.

barfly (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 8:19 pm

p.s. I don't suppose earthquakes could have anything to do with it?

Too localized. Besides, its been quiet, too quiet.

RD - I picture you as a guy who took college debate very seriously. Get over that.

Actually, what if the drop off in shipping/trucking that should be happening/happened for Christmas was because no one could get loans for the purchases?

Hope it is not the cement-asbestos pipe many of the utilities used in the 50's through the 70's - that stuff can be expensive to take out.

Hoocoodanode will be going offline for security related maintenance at 11 PM, and may be down for several hours as I catch up on various other housekeeping. Sorry for the inconvenience.

One of them was riveted cold rolled plate! We are talking deferred replacement with a bullet. Just what LA needed, a new expense.

Probably some of that too, nova.

In this enviroment small biz is getting hit from every direction. Some, I don't know how they have made it this far.

Terry,

Yeah...killer sales moved merchandise but could not cover the monthly bills plus tight credit ... Retail really, really needs a flat or better Christmas

Most utilities do break-fix - too expensive to rip out and replace large quantities of the stuff. Wife is an engineer for the local utility and the only time they went and ripped out the lines was for the cement-asbestos piping

kcoop,

Good luck. The simplest upgrade always has the potential to be a nightmare

kcoop.....11pm eastern or pacific?

I'm enjoying the faintly japanese element to mortgages going beyond the 30-year range

Some brick & mortar retailers have long leases, and many aren't necessarily losing money, but they've seen the writing on the wall, and aren't signing new leases, and saying adios...

Them are some oooooooold pipes, Dawg...

"IMHO, Buffett and WFC are holding a shitload of toxic waste! "

Not a problem. Wells has found a buyer for this stuff at top dollar--itself!

You-know-who

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway Inc. holds the biggest stake in San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, said today on CNBC the worst may be over for the residential market.

“We have forgiven over $1.8 billion in principal balances,” Stumpf said. “The loan modification efforts we’re making should help reduce the future losses.”

Risks Declining

Stumpf said risks facing Wells Fargo from the $89 billion in option adjustable-rate mortgages obtained through the Wachovia purchase have been reduced. Option-ARMs allow borrowers to defer interest while making payments on principal loan balances. The loans can backfire during a housing slump because the mortgage increases while the home price falls, boosting a lender’s potential loss.

“Not all option-ARM portfolios are alike,” Stumpf said. Interest deferred by borrowers who typically pay the minimum amount on their option-ARMs declined 7 percent this year through Aug. 31, to $4 billion, he said.

The bank’s risk from its $127 billion in commercial real estate is mitigated by experienced executives and better market conditions than during previous recessions, Stumpf said. “We’re not dealing with an outsized, overbuilt market,” he said.

Stumpf affirmed Wells Fargo’s plan to repay a $25 billion investment from the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program as soon as practical. Regulators told the bank in May to bolster its balance sheet after stress tests found a $13.7 billion capital gap tied to projected loan losses. The bank boosted capital by $14.2 billion with profits and the sale of common shares.

CNBC continues to bleed vierwers.

Go long Corning [silicone]....

Well, commentariat, off to slumber land as hoocoodanode goes radio silent around the dark side of the moon...good luck and godspeed Ken

And, of course, Louisiana included... Seattle

barfly -- that's a shame. guys die on jobs all the time. several years back "mikes hard lemonade" made a supposedly funny commercial that starred a construction worker with a piece of rebar sticking out of his chest. many years ago i worked with a guy that fell on rebar, pushed himself up, walked to his truck and bled to death.

Iowa City & Coralville, West Des Moines & 'Valley', Ankeny

Oh dryfly, you just listed the only towns in the state where there's an influx of young people and growth. Ya think there's some correlation? (Full disclaimer, I followed the young ones into WDM/Ankeny.)

closer to 1100 i think with the credit card fees and premiums for the smaller coins.

oy vay - what we do for love

Oh dryfly, you just listed the only towns in the state where there's an influx of young people and growth. Ya think there's some correlation? (Full disclaimer, I followed the young ones into WDM/Ankeny.)

Let's just say it isn't a coincidence.

I was on a Microsoft job where a carpenter stupidly climbed up a rebar column to cut away the 2-by-4 supports holding it up so he could wrap the forms around it , to get it ready for a pour, and the column fell over in the direction of his weight, and landed him on a row of foundation dowels that punched throught his back and stopped just short of breaking through his chest. We were holding him up with our hands while a torch was wheeled into position to cut the rebar off underneath him, while the ambulance was being wheeled into position, He was taken to the hospital, where the rebar was removed. The guy lived and was back at work a month later. One tough sob.

WFC's footprint is pretty large in West Des Moines. Miller's smart. Don't know why he wants this press. Either has an axe to grind locally or setting up the IA dems to get out in front of the foreclosure problem, making bankers look like the bad guys?

yeah, i know. have you seen what gold does to a woman's eyes? i've been pondering getting a chain and bezel to hold a maple (for pool night) but i'm a physical coward and fear some brute snatching it off of my chest

Did WFC leave many of the Norwest ops in WDM? I had suspected they consolidated them into other centers, based on their prior history.

"The city is expected to adopt a plan requiring vacant stores to hang paintings, photographs of old Hollywood movie stars or come up with their own picturesque remedies to head off creeping blight in the city center."

There are a lot of artsy decorator types living out there - maybe they'll do some cool stuff. The old school Hollywood connection still seems to be strong...

Ouch! all those shoes dropping may break lots of toes.

Where's the eCONomy's steel toed boots?

Re: "do you question the beneficence of our Dear Leader?"

Are omnipresence and beneficence related?

Last time I was in Scranton, their mall had been doing the same with local artists. A shame, too, as that was one of the few malls I'd ever liked.

At least Boscov's is coming out of bankruptcy...

did the guy that survived the rebar impalement shoot fireballs out of his ass at commies and kill them?

I don't know how much of Norwest was incorporated into their new WDM headquarters. But they've become a major employer for Des Moines in recent years. Sucks to be so dependent upon FIRE in this area. Back to the farm I guess.

I'll see your Mitzi Gaynor and raise you a Christmas All Over Again
YouTube - Christmas All Over Again

Hey, none taken. It's serious business.

but you said there was more...

....Palm Springs is prescribing art therapy as a partial cure

......Welcome to California.............what a bunch of crap.........just have them call in the graffiti experts from around there.......now THERE'S ART!

i hope this site is old news to you seasoned dooomers:
Desdemona Despair

un. re. lent. ing. doom.

un. re. lent. ing. doom.

And unrelenting fictitious hope...I guess were all losers.

It took us about 8 or ten minutes to drag the torch over the shitty terrain where it was needed, and the then, me, with hands shaking like you wouldn't believe, was trying to connect the guages, ( wheeled torches are not allowed to be wheeled with guages connected), but I got it done, got the torch fired up, and handed it to a very cool customer who was waiting to do the cutting, all the while the carpenter was emitting sounds totally unhuman, literally filling the pit.

The dollar is going down, thanks to Helicopter Ben, so assets in terms of dollar pricing are going up. It's all relative, except for the rest fo the world.

Too bad he looks like a nerd.

Give him a Deere cap & Hawkeye T shirt and he'll do fine...

A Better Way to Do Collateral @ WFC
Letters of Credit

jlr (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 8:55 pm

Hmmm, Palm Springs as upscale...Never thought of it that way, ask a local how many houses on their block are potential meth labs.
Talk about a place over run with cookie cutters and unnecessary strip malls; my favorite is the opposing Lowe's and Home Depot on Ramon. I'd love to see the option arm percentages in the C. Valley, not bueno.

Wait until we find out how many LA and OC houses get taken out because they HELOCd for the downpayment on a Palm springs investment property. Interesting factoid: 38.2% of the dwelling units in the city are empty.
Palm Springs city, California - Fact Sheet - American FactFinder

Interesting factoid: 38.2% of the dwelling units in the city are empty.

Dawg - Wonder how many are owned by snowbirds who use them only a few months of the year - or bought to use in a few years from now after retirement. I have a cousin who does that - goes there for a few months before & after Xmas... rest of the time back here in Minnie.

barfly -- we should write a doomer construction-based novel. did i every tell ya'll about the time a guy cut his thumb off while we were building a custom home in norcal? i thought that he was getting attacked by a bear he was screaming so much.

I always kinda liked Reggie; seems to be ahead of the curve for the most part:

Option ARMs: The Banking Backdrop of 2009 (January 04, 2009)
Option ARMs: The Banking Backdrop of 2009 -- Seeking Alpha

The problem ahead: According to Fitch, of the nearly $200 bn of option ARMs outstanding, roughly $29 bn of loans are expected to recast by 2009. Of this $6.6 bn constitute 2004 vintage (that would be recast as a result of completion of the end of five-year term in 2009) and $23 bn constitute 2005 and 2006 vintage loans that would recast early due to the 110% balance cap limit.
Further an additional $67 bn is expected to recast in 2010, of which $37 bn belong to 2005 vintage (that would be recast as a result of completion of the end of five-year term in 2010) and the balance $30 bn consist of 2006 and 2007 vintage loans that would be recast early due to the 110% balance limit cap.

Here he is here:

I'm About to Drop a Bomb on the Banking Industry
http://boombustblog.com/ 

1. The forensic analysis of JP Morgan will be a doozy, and I have excerpted certain (non-valuation or directly investment related) portions of it as a pdf document to be distributed freely over the web. I have already released quite a bit of information in an attempt to educate the laymen about the extent of systemic risk that still abounds. From a risk perspective, we are worse off than ever before. Those who were claimed to be too big to fail are even bigger. Those who concentrated risks to the point that they held this country and the entire global financial system hostage are even more concentrated, and the lobbying machine that is Wall Street is even more focused and effective than ever.
2. Democratic Representative Barney Frank has banished Goldman's Michael Paese, a former committee staffer, from dealing with the panel while it considers a long list of financial reform proposals, some directly impacting Goldman.

"Mr. Paese left our offices in September 2008, and was not allowed to communicate with any committee members or staff for a period of one year due to normal ethics restrictions that apply to all House and Senate employees," said Frank aide Steven Adamske in a statement.

1. Reggie Middleton's Boom Bust Blog <<

construction doomerism goes way back. I got stories.

dryfly,
I've been whining about insane Palm springs on my blog since 2005. What do you want to know? You already know. Prices went sky high, false demand created a construction boom. Much was financed with coastal zone equity extraction. And the flippers. My gods, the flippers. Locusts with BMWs and checkbooks. They'll be mining pergraniteel from the desert for generations.

consider yerself lucky.

A few nice items here to look at:

Any Objective Review Shows that the Big Banks are Simply too Big for the Safety of this Country
RGE - Any Objective Review Shows that the Big Banks are Simply too Big for the Safety of this Country

n an absolute basis (dollar amount), JP Morgan is the leading derivative player in the industry with notional value of derivatives amounting to $80 trillion followed by Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. JPM also has the highest Gross fair value of derivatives (before netting) with $1.79 trillion of derivative assets and $1.75 trillion of derivative liabilities. I have reviewed what this means in terms of implied and explicit counterparty risks in "As the markets climb on top of one big, incestuous pool of concentrated risk...")

· Despite higher gross fair value of derivatives, JP Morgan’s net exposure on balance sheet is not the largest (with $97 bn and $67 bn of derivative assets and derivative liabilities, respectively) as the company has netted a significant part of its derivative exposure (trading direct market and credit risks for counterparty risks). Net fair value of derivative receivable to gross receivable for JPM is 5.42% compared to industry average of 9.84% while net fair value of derivative payables to gross payables for JPM is 3.84% compared to industry average of 6.03%.

· JP Morgan’s total derivative exposure on balance sheet is $165 bn, or 174% of its tangible equity. JPM’s gross fair value of derivatives is approximately 38 times its tangible equity while notional amount of derivatives is about 850 times its tangible equity.

Reggie has a good point here: "I find it absolutely amazing that this country could justify breaking up a telephone company (Ma Bell, ala AT&T) yet allow these monstrosities of unproductive financial risk to grow even bigger and threaten the entire world, not once but twice, with their extreme levels of concentrated esoterica. "

**++

Thanks Doc for all the research. Good stuff!**

wondering if people can just reset that easily.

If you followed Jim the Realtor's blog you'd know the answer to that question.

"Yeah I know, smoke and mirrors... didn't really exist."

Unfortunately, it existed just long enough for some fools to borrow against it.

"wondering if people can just reset that easily. "

No.

that guard does get irritating.

.....yet allow these monstrosities of unproductive financial risk to grow even bigger and threaten the entire world, not once but twice,

.....and you wonder why I dropped out - never making enough to require a return, living in a state that has no income tax? No thanx, I'm not playing.

that this country could justify breaking up a telephone company (Ma Bell, ala AT&T) yet allow these monstrosities of unproductive financial risk to grow even bigger

the same people who unbroke AT&T in the Reagan White House were in charge of the country's oversight apparat this decade. I don't know if they intentionally engineered the bubble or it just happened on their watch, and I also don't know which contingency is more damning.

Outlier (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 9:41 pm

I still can't get over CR's graph from earlier today. In just a few short years, 30% or almost 6 trillion dollars in basically fictitious real estate wealth, gone.

Good. That means only another $1-3T left to go. The bottom might be in sight. Here's what I wrote Aug 2007:

Lou, this sounds a little tinfoil but there is no money. $7-9T needs to taken off the books, written down, whatever from the US residential housing aggregate valuation. Not only is that a lot but it is disproportionately risk spead to a portion of that asset class. I can afford the $500-600k hit, just paper for me and half my neighbors but I doubt my immediate next door neighbor can afford the $1.2-$1.6m hit to his wishing price.

Heck, here's an even gloomier outlook from Apr 09:
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/04/pdf/wealth_declines.pdf

I knew of a guy that was so sick of working, he thought he could collect disability by cutting off his own finger with a pair of bolt-cutters. The Disability board concluded there was no way that was possible, and denied him his claim. Loser.

Hemet? Galactic center? Bahahahaha. I had a boyfriend that lived in Hemet. We would fly back and forth to visit. Dear god what a funny image.

I still think MP should video Operation Chipmunk and put it on youtube with music from Caddyshack. I can just see the zany montage now. Or use the video for a pilot project for a new cooking show, Cooking with Conjure.

i've changed my 401k contributions to 0%. i've pulled out 3 months net income out of my checking account. why?
to strangle the financial "industry."

lazy, pasty, arrogant bastards making several mil a year for doing nothing. f them, not on my dime.

We got the Lousisana Purchase from the Spainards and grew to the size of Europe

Well, that's the first time I ever heard anyone refer to the acquisition of Florida as the Louisiana Purchase.

"The priority here is to live cheaply so as to not deplete your savings by too much. Where would you go? "

One of these days, I'm going to go have a look at the lake country in Arkansas.

Northern California has some places where the economy is way down at subsistence level. Former logging areas. Trinity County, for example.

"The priority here is to live cheaply so as to not deplete your savings by too much. Where would you go? "

My brother might have an extra hammock down Nicaragua way but barring that I hear tell the ranch hands at Black Star get peach pie on Sundays.

What scares the shit out of me is that Treasury just pulled the plug on the FDIC backing for mutual fund money markets -- not to mention that lots of Treasury-based money markets were re-structured and closed in an attempt to improve liquidity, i.e., allow these fuckers to play games with repo garbage and roll the dice chasing yields -- versus attaching your savings accounts to Treasuries ..... that used to be safe. On top of that, everyone now is getting electronic prospectus DD and obviously no one will every read what is going on, and nothing will be disclosed anyway (by the mutuals). It may be worth finding the safest banks on those links and dumping mutual MMs??

That's funny, I thought he was referring to the French as 'Spainards'....

If you've been reading nova's American Apocalypse, you don't want to be anywhere within at least one tank of gas of a major population center.

sneering nihilist (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 9:57 pm

agronox -- ideally, probably central america. less ideally, how about western new york?

If Obama runs another base closure round then the Watertown, NY area is dead. Fort Drum would close for sure.

Doc Holiday
The Treasury is replacing the need for MMs by doing the lending directly with the CPFF and TALF

That doesn't leave much in terms of livable places in this country, does it?

Quite a bit west of the Mississippi...

I would avoid WV because of the water and other health problems related to the unregulated coal mining

Go in w/ eyes open... I mean you suggested Croatia? After years of communism? There are toxic sites all over eastern Europe - including the Balkans. And Columbia is still at war - with drug labs in many places to boot - I have friends who lived there & left as a result of the narco-terrorism.

WV & Ohio definitely have some issues w/ pollution - but not most places - it is a big region. Hell SW Colorado has as many 'dirty mines' as Appalachia & less water to pollute...

Just have to go in with the eyes wide open.

EHP,

Thanks, that makes me feel better!

Also, take a look at this link: The 400 biggest banks and their troubled loan
400 biggest banks and bad loans - BankTracker- msnbc.com

This is looking like a growing liquidity trap. LOOK at the increase in PROBLEM loans across the spectrum since a year ago; this is chaos!!! We have smaller and bigger banks failing as in BFF and the consolidation is increasing the troubled loans all across the food chain. There is no safe bank! That is not good! I imagine the FDIC has unlimited funds to stop the trillions in losses from rolling along at a faster rate ... yah. So, we have a stock market headed to 15K by XMAS and a banking system melting down and racing in the opposite direction at breakneck speed -- how nice!

It is true and tragic. It does not help matters any, that Buffett is advising the WH and BHO and Jamie being on first name basis from their Harvard days. Its a very close knit group of people that is in charge. You may be right, no meaningful change is forthcoming ; it will be a train wreck at the end costing a few more trillions to the already impoverished tax payers. BHO's big talk yesterday was a transparent charade.

Who doesn't like Kelly Clarkson- Breakaway

DH said "this is just an insane game of Russian Roulette -- which will end with the death of capitalism! "

I have this sinking feeling that it's a feature of the program and not a bug...

The type of culture, food, people, climate that you like will play a big part in your plans.

And even picking a 'region' doesn't do it justice - there are 'regions' that I like and still a whole lot of individual towns in that region I wouldn't touch. Likewise regions I'm not impressed with as a whole but towns I've been in there that did tickle my fancy.

It just depends.

barfly,

I'm sorry, but her ass looks too big in that dress, but it sounds fairly good.... I'm trying to calm down, but I'm suddenly feeling fear, the same way I felt when I moved everything to a Treasury money market back in the summer of 2007.

9/17/09

"From a risk perspective, we are worse off than ever before. Those who were claimed to be too big to fail are even bigger. Those who concentrated risks to the point that they held this country and the entire global financial system hostage are even more concentrated, and the lobbying machine that is Wall Street is even more focused and effective than ever."

http://boombustblog.com/ 

Doc, more pushin' to the cushion. Fear not, my brother. Nobody gets out alive.

Anyone want to talk about the bottleneck we are about to through as a species?
The last time this happened (70,000 years ago) we were down to less that 10,000 people, and possibly 2000.
I wonder what the foreclose rate will be then?

United States Map of Male Life Expectancy at Birth
United States Map of Obesity over time

It just depends.

You're right, but I thank you all for the ideas just the same.

Doc, don't be so melodramatic. It's only the end of the world. It's not like it means anything. Chillax.

Doc, try a little cognac. It'll make you feel better. Save the scotch for cleaning paint brushes. :>

Mercury Maps
USGS Contributes to the Design of a Proposed National Mercury Monitoring Network (MercNet)
http://www.mercuryinschools.uwex.edu/lib/images/curriculum/hg_deposition.gif
Mercury Studies Team - USGS Wisconsin Water Science Center

Thanx for the entertaining reading tonight all.

Leaving w/one anecdote --

At the grocery store today, saw an older man in one of those powered seated carts. He looked disheveled, poor, unhappy, and it appears he may have had a stroke or even cerebral palsy, not sure, muscle movements appeared to be difficult. He was at the scratch lottery ticket vending machine, stretching as well as he could with shaky hands to pull the scratch-off ticket out of the machine.

It could be the times, or it could be that has always been a part of life. Either way, disturbing.

Central states rural US is some of the least expensive 'developed' areas in the world right now.

Palin territory.

Some of those people are pretty insular.

Now that qualifies as a pretty diplomatic way of expressing that point.

adornos
I was talking with a conservationist here in cambodia, a Brit PhD, and the numbers he spoke of werre much higher... he was talking about the interplay of humans and animals from India through Burma... he's in charge of tracking the rare tigers here... like in Burma the Cambodians because they came from India and were hindu had a much different relationship with animals as say the Chinese, many animals were off the menu for centuries. but he said you take the Chinese or Viets and they ate everything. he said you would have to go to India to find some of the rare animals that still exist here and in Burma...
....
sadly, the Khmer Rouge use to capture tigers in Mondokiri up until '90 and copter them to China for big bucks... (on a side note Thailand has had a program for 30 years and they've rebuilt their stock... )

dryfly
It's Colombia and not Columbia, people will think you're talking about a NY University. There are distinct safe/not-safe regions in Colombia. I happen to have several friends from there. The stupid amounts of US military aid do a good job of keeping cost of living low. As for Croatia, I'll take your word that it's overpriced. I also know a family from Bulgaria. There's a lot to love, but there is just too much corruption to enjoy a nice life for the foreseeable future. People were already suggesting individual US states, so I took the international approach -- why not enjoy a new experience if you're planning to live off savings and write. If I was sticking to the US, I personally would prefer something like an old logging/mining town in Washington or Oregon. The houses are just as cheap, the climate is perhaps cheaper, and I would enjoy the mountains/water/trees

Duke: saw basterds tonight.

Perfectly entertaining of course, with some superb polyglot performances. (I even thought Pitt was fine, unlike my family)
But like all QT, long on style, short on substance. I imagine a great film for a cinema buff. I get the impression Tarantino feels he is such a maverick, he can "rewrite history" as ironic Hollywood ending and get away with it because he's just so clever. Having just watched a dramatic reading of the real monster Goebbels' diary using the actual text set to contemporary footage, I laughed at the cartoon basterd propaganda minister.

oh, I would be down with North Dakota. It's got hockey

If the goal was to take a year off at least cost, and just to meditate/write/whatever, then wouldn't just getting onto the best EI plan in the state with the most/best extended benefits be best? Or getting a year in some posh little minimum security club fed for petty crime might be an option - all expenses paid. The life experience might even help improve the writing.

thanks for the heads up the other night about the PBS special on the making of a Steinway piano.

Glad you enjoyed it. There are still some things that are done well in this country.

The Steinway is one of them.

mp, considering Obama won by a 12 point lead, you might be right.

Midwest folks in the rural areas are difficult to get to know. They remind me of Swiss and Germans.

Of course, many have German and Swiss heritage, which probably explains a lot of it.

regarding the earlier post about the impact of Fed purchases of MBS, the impact is about 75bps in spread over 10 yr UST, and probably drags down 10 yr UST by an additional 25 - 50bps.

While the comparison to average spreads would indicate rates would be 35-50bps wider, these are not "average" times, and spreads would be at least 75bps or more wider, with occassional blow-outs to beyond 100bps wider than today.

The reason is as others have stated - Fannie and Freddie counterparty risk. They do NOT have full faith and credit, and therefore, foreign investors want no part of them.

Although Fannie and Freddie are wards of the government, if you are buying FNMA 30 yr MBS, you are exposed to counterpart risk of Fannie/Freddie for up to 30 years (realistically 10-15 years). Is the government going to support them 10 years from now? Could the next government come in, demand payment on their loans, and force them to default? In a pinch, rather than default on sovereign debt, would the govt default on Fannie/Freddie debt? If the gov't is putting full faith and credit behind them, why not make it official?

In fact, the fact that the gov't is NOT giving them full faith and credit in and of itself hurts the story that they are "gov't backed".

Thus, without Fed sponsorship in the market, spreads would be very volatile, and higher.

Also, without certainty of the future of the GSEs, there is liquidity fear - in 5 years, a Fannie MBS could be a collector's item. Not good for liquidity.

Pushing down MBS prices has an effect on Treasuries, and mortgage servicers hold USTs to hedge their prepayment risk. As MBS rates go down, servicers buy Treasuries.

Also, as others also mentioned, the Fed is buying, and the banks are selling. In return, banks buy Ginnies (which DO have full faith and credit and thus a 0% risk rating) and USTs, which also helps UST prices.

My prediction is the Fed will be forced to buy Fannie and Freddie MBS through 2010, and into 2011.

EHP - lol

Last!

In the summer they fight, f*ck, and fish. In the winter, they don't fish.

Haha! I'll remember that! That's good! Fight, f***, and fish!

Best to all. It's been a long day.

Koop- you bastard...

ill see you all on the other side

fasten your seat belts. its gonna be a rough ride

dave...i can feel it dave...stop dave

I've got a few more tasks left to do, but thought I'd bring the site back on now that it's stable. Performance may get sluggish for a bit.

I couldn't take it. I just kept hitting "replay" on this, over and over again:

YouTube - Without You - RENT Movie

BTW, for local SoCal types, Rent is playing in Long Beach in December:

Arts and Entertainment at Musical Theatre West

barfly, thanks for words of respect for SFC Monti on the previous thread.

A few minutes ago I linked the song "Without You" from the musical Rent above as a joke, just kidding with Ken and all.

But when I saw this image earlier today:

President Obama awards posthumous Medal of Honor to Army Sgt. 1st Class Jared Monti

I could see it on the faces of Janet and Paul Monti. That's what "Without You" really means. (They would rather have their son back.)

Goodnight, friend.

kcoop - love you, man

Sportsfan, I have total respect for the men and women, such as you, and many others on this board, who have risked their lives in the service of our country, in wars both current and past. Never doubt that.

yves smith over at naked capitalism

is making the argument that the continuing waves of defaults (cre, option arms etc)

plus the rising price of oil will likely smack down the economy and hard for some time

Will Peak Oil Pricing = Perma Recession? « naked capitalism

we are so effed

Ken, something is screwey. On my screen, set at 100%, the print is barely perceptable. I can't even see if I'm spelling the words right.

Yep, at 150%. The font has dropped twice in size during the course of this thread.

barfly writes: "Ken, something is screwey. On my screen, set at 100%, the print is barely perceptable. I can't even see if I'm spelling the words right."

This is too easy. I mean it cries out for a response. But I'm not going to do it. Nope. and don't be asking me, either!

Good Morning All!

10 Illinois 401 13,078

Look at obama's "home" state. He helped there? Number 10 in foreclosures. That is the type of help he could provide to the rest of the country. Maybe he could vote present more often and get out of our wallets.

Am I imaging things or is the font getting smaller and smaller down the page? Are you having a bit of fun with our aging boomer eyes CR?

Consider finding a locale that has a small hydropower system in place, and creates just enough energy for the local community and not much more.

There are a few places out there, hither and yon...