pigged

Mrs. Gnome and I are heading to Italy tomorrow for our first visit.
Smile
Any suggestions from the CR Community?
In Vino Veritas

Yes, arrive hungery. And eat without prejudice.

This is where I remind people that the Case-Shiller Index does exclude foreclosures and other distressed sales, which is relevant in the short run

Eating and drinking for a week is the only plan...

I want to try:
1. Pigeon
2. Wild Boar (although I've had this before)

1. Pigeon

I have more than once seen a patron nab a live pigeon from the piazza and give it to the waitstaff to be prepared.

face might have been a freudian slip, CR

as in face the music

re: last thread and BSR's Q
Age 0 - 19: 27.5% of population, 82.272mn people
+
Current employment is 131mn people, down from the recent peak of 140mn

So in what proportions will that be absorbed? Out-migration, retirement, net job creation are the 3 choices I would split it up into.
for reference: Age 65+: 36.789mn people, 12.3% of population. Total population: 299,106mn

One our last visit, we found out 'no smoking' signs did not much do anything. Was a bit of a problem on our train trips. Friendly people, we were smitten.

All the demographic projections I have seen never consider out-migration from Europe or the United States. It's always inherently higher GDP per capita will draw in any labor desired.

OT, but relevant to the last post is how 3 Hyatts in Boston are cutting their operating costs: Housekeepers lose Hyatt jobs to outsourcing - The Boston Globe

HomeGnome
I have heard great things about chartering a yacht in the Adriatic and hopping along the coast

Interested to see any quantitative assessment of the distribution of those 'gains'...

Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2 Trillion (Update2)
By Bob Willis

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Household wealth in the U.S. increased by $2 trillion in the second quarter, bringing an end to the biggest slump on record.

Net worth for households and non-profit groups climbed to $53.1 trillion from $51.1 trillion in the first quarter, marking the first gain since the third quarter of 2007, according to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report today in Washington. The government began keeping quarterly records in 1952.

The advance reflected the biggest quarterly jump in stock prices since 1998 and the first increase in home values in more than two years. Together with increased savings and less debt, the gain in wealth is part of the mending process consumers will undergo in coming years before spending can gain speed.

“We’ve clawed back some of the previous losses,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “Households are less willing to use credit and it will be a long slog to rebuild the wealth” lost during the recession.

Supplemented by federal stimulus measures such as the cash-for-clunkers program, tax credits and extended jobless benefits, consumer spending this quarter has started to improve following the biggest slump since 1980.
Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2 Trillion (Update3) - Bloomberg.com

It appears the first-time homebuyer frenzy is started to face, although investors are still buying in the low end areas.

I shall excercise extreme restraint and only observe that CR likely meant the "frenzy is started to fade."

@HG - lots of rabbit (Conejo), and a nice hike in the Cinque Terre (easy drive from Northern Umbria, stay overnight). Get a nice seafood risotto while in the Cinque Terre.

PHX sales down MoM, up YoY

The Phoenix-area housing market downshifted in August, with both home resales and foreclosures decreasing considerably compared with the previous month, according to a report from Arizona State University.

Sales of existing single-family homes dipped to 5,995 in August from 7,300 in July.

Foreclosures also decreased to 3,085 from 4,200 the previous month.

Still, August home resales were up from the 4,210 transactions recorded in August 2008.

Foreclosure activity decreased by more than 200 from a year earlier, when there were 3,295 foreclosures recorded.

As expected, the median sale price for existing single-family homes was down significantly, about 29 percent, from a year earlier.

I had the rabbit in Montalcino, chased down with Brunello. Highly recommended. It's a tiny spot around Tuscany, but the fortress like town is pretty neat to walk around for a day and just snack snack snack. Go outside a wee bit to check out the wineries in the region. Helps to have someone with you who is fluent though, since there are some rather old school folks in the area and you will not be able to communicate otherwise.

mhdoc and SNAFU,
thanks for the comments.

ucgal,
We know a tiny amount of Italian but I think we'll do ok.
Have the phrase book so we can look 'touristy',
No Maple Leaf flags for us though.

EHP,
Chartering a yacht is a bit large for my wallet.
For now.

Comrade Scott,
Definitely going to have some Conejo.
Mrs. Gnome makes a mean risotto so we'll see...

Maple leafs? Cowards. Wear the Star of David and watch people smile

Already reserved the car so that is that...

Looks like has a cramp.

Gee... that ends the 'seller's season.'

I speculate that the slowing season is due to sellers trying to 'not give the home away.'

It will be very interesting to see how the 'transitional sales month' of September looks this year. Even more interesting to see how California does October through February.

People are talking about it 'no longer being a buyers market' and 'its not yet a sellers market, but its turing that way.'

Yawn. This is from people panicing to buy or home-owners. (Some with no debt.)

Got Popcorn?
Neil

Wow. With the 8K credit close to expiring I never would have guessed a decline.

Of course, lab rats are very smart and with the talk of a 15K credit in the air .....

"non-owner occupied buying is above-average in some markets"

Sniff...sniff... I say good man: is that specuvestment on your shoe?

elmo by a cute, furry nose

houses for clunkers?

that's effectively what has happened with FNM/FRE already

People are talking about it 'no longer being a buyers market' and 'its not yet a sellers market, but its turing that way.'

I'm actually seeing some list price increases in LA. "Nuts" is the word that comes to mind...

"Have you seen most European rental cars? They are rarely overkill. "

OK, two Vespas lashed together.

Anyone draw parallels between Roosevelt's Electric Utility crackdown and present day healthcare?
What about calls to abolish Congress and a certain -ism capable of streamlining government?
Perhaps the comparisons should be the laste 1970s with telephone companies, and Thatcherism? Could you run the same playbook twice, maybe that is the difference?

What the media didn't report is that they used Blackwater security forces in New Orleans after Katrina.

.....and also didn't report the confiscation of firearms.......

If you arent a regular scooter or cycle rider, dont even think about trying to ride one in Italy. It's hard enough not getting blown off the road there when you are in a car. In Bologna, there are enough scooters to make it seem like Taipei. If you dont know the routine, you're asking for a nasty. Driving in italy is quite competitive, lets just say.

Germany apparently has quite nice rental cars. Germany Car Rental Fleet Guide
Luxury automakers in Europe have long had regional pricing. In the 1980s there was a big boom in importing europe-spec luxury cars to the US and converting them to be US-compliant, then pocketing the large difference. At least that's what I learned from the movie Rain Man

Mercenaries per se are not always a cause for worry. What is known as first generation mercenaries are usually very professional; and these people came to rise in the 1990's from the demobilization of the Cold War. They are professionally trained soldiers and they continue to conduct themselves that way; however, these people have either retired or are retiring, and then you get the second generation mercenary--which they're are more of as the US Army has been made more and more dependent on them. These are not, for the most part, professionally trained soldiers and if they served in the military they more than likely didn't pass the psych evaluation.

If one looks throughout history, either Roman times to the Dutch in the Congo, second generation mercenaries always cause trouble somewhere. When unemployment in this sector become high and traditional security employment is not offered, or that doesn't pay well, then they usually transition into organized crime.

I spent a day riding a bike around Rome. It was the most terrifying part of my 2-week ride across Europe but it was amazing. Best way to see Italy ever - bike + train...

Is anyone else here seriously pissed at Senator Isakson's plan to expand and extend the home buyer tax credit? The funny thing is that the guy calls himself a libertarian leaning conservative. Free market my ass.

This is coming from someone who is ready to buy a home.

Is anyone else here seriously pissed at Senator Isakson's plan to expand and extend the home buyer tax credit?

I think the pissed-offness starts with CR here and works its way down to the commentariat.

You won't find many cheerleaders for that extension here. Poorly thought-out and with questionable objectives.

If we were to bring down our consumption of red meat to the level of the rest of the world, resulting in fewer trips to the doctor and hospital, and people under 55 switch from golf to an actual sport, but one requiring not much spending per calorie burned, have the terrorists won?

have the terrorists won?

Yes. Next question.

uncle Ar - agreed. Italy (and Paris for that matter) are ruined from what they used to be. It's partly the dollar, but not completely. The adoption of the euro screwed peopel royally in Italy. Prices did not jsut convert...they went through the roof given the chance. It's absurd in both places now how much trifling things cost. You blow through money soooo fast there now if you dont watch yourself. I recalced based on the exchange rates that might seem more normal, and it was STILL expensive. And I happen to know through my sister, many people there are saying the standard of living has been destroyed this decade.

Think of it this way. You've already been having a killer house party. The carpet is stained, the wallpaper torn, the TV busted, jewellery and the blender stolen... should you be upset that the crowd is going to throw the dog house into the pool? You're going to be in trouble when your parents get home no matter what, all you can do is take enjoyment under that certainty.

I smell bacon cooking. Prepared to be pigged.

re: FTHB tax credit
Here is what the Jack and Jill Averages have to say

There's a realtor's office near me that has a slew of bright yellow and black signs trumpeting the $8000 tax giveaway to new home buyers. The signs look just like the "for sale" signs realtors stick in front yards. It makes me sick.

Freaking balloons and ribbons on the signs too. After all the lies and propaganda out of the NAR over the past five years, that kind of obnoxious advertising deserves a really juvenile response. I might do something rash.

Mr. Gnome, the people talking about the driving there are not kidding. Traffic signals are mere suggestions at best, scooter drivers are insane, and the people driving the expensive german metal are even more obnoxious than they are here. If you drive on the 17 or 71 [don't remember which, but it is the main road] (from a town named something like 'castigleano de lago' to northern Umbria), watch out for the traffic camera. I think I may have a ticket coming my way. Can't read enough Italian to know for sure, but I think it flashed 'busted' as I drove by.

That said the analogy I would make is that you're already playing with borrowed money, and you wont face any more repercussions from borrowing just a little more.

The Quantum theory of over extended debt.

"Yes to 1, no to 2."

Uncle Ar,
I'm sure Mrs. Gnome will be driving; so the tickets are all hers.

I had the pleasure of living in Rome for about six months, and was not able to see all of the magnificent sights and places in and around the city by a long shot, even given an extended stay of that duration. YMMV.

Twenty years ago the place was unaffordable even when they were still using the lira. I price hotels and other expenses there now, and I can't believe how much they want...for what you get.

Absolutely right, yogi.........most of the old guy regulars that spend every day at the Nugget poker table here do nothing else but wait for the "young whiz kids" to come along. It's like they become young again, and it inevitably gets ugly.

How long can oil hang around at $70 per barrel?

enthdigry (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 4:13 pm
Is anyone else here seriously pissed at Senator Isakson's plan to expand and extend the home buyer tax credit? The funny thing is that the guy calls himself a libertarian leaning conservative. Free market my ass.
This is coming from someone who is ready to buy a home.
It's ridiculous in a sense, but on the other hand, as someone that has yet to be able to take advantage of any of these bailouts, it might be nice to finally get one for myself. I've sure paid enough taxes.

BTW classic face-ripper on the Dow this afternoon. Hey, it's opex tomorrow, so we'll ramp at 3:12, and instead of the moon shot at 3:25 as usual, we'll pile out and bookit right there at 9810! Whee!

34m trades at 3:59. Plenty left for tomorrow.

C

Nice.....
I hope whatever VP @ Hyatt did this rots in hell.....and I hope travelers desert them in droves. And I hope that Georgia company goes belly up. What a business model.......

How long can oil hang around at $70 per barrel?

$70 feels about right to me. Could be stuck in a trading range for some time.

Nova, excellent display of reasoning. The United States has never depended on large scale private security forces to conduct wars directly in combat operations--in Vietnam the private contractors served logistical roles. Any one who has served in the armed forces in a combat zone over the last 6 years has witnessed a disturbing increase in heavily armed mercenaries (it's estimated that Dyncorp alone has 40k under arms, mainly employed by Saudi Arabia).

Again, companies like Dyncorp and Blckwater are running and controling private armies, and this is made possible of course by the ignorance of the public. If these companies downsize even a small percentage, then where do these mercenaries go? Well, they come back home for one, then what? Seek unemployment? After making hundreds of thousands of dollars? I don't think so. And if you think many of these people have any problem working for organized crime, you better think again. When we hear about casualties and combat operations in Iraq this is only in terms of the US Military--conduct of Security Forces is not formally reported on by any government agency, and so hence, no press release; either casualties or operations.

thanks for sharing that link iceman
I knew Lutz's voice sounded different.
btw -- GM and Ford are producing for a 11.5-12mn SAAR US auto sales. Since July I think. If every 3rd vehicle is going into inventory, they could end up with a 6 week (instead of the regular 2) shutdown come year end. It makes sense for Ford, GM and Chrysler ran into inventory trouble when they were shut down for bankruptcy proceedings.

B. Eason (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 4:56 pm
Again, companies like Dyncorp and Blckwater are running and controling private armies, and this is made possible of course by the ignorance of the public. If these companies downsize even a small percentage, then where do these mercenaries go? Well, they come back home for one, then what? Seek unemployment? After making hundreds of thousands of dollars? I don't think so. And if you think many of these people have any problem working for organized crime, you better think again. When we hear about casualties and combat operations in Iraq this is only in terms of the US Military--conduct of Security Forces is not formally reported on by any government agency, and so hence, no press release; either casualties or operations.

There was some talk a few weeks back about the UN getting a standing army. Maybe that's where they'd go?

Tesla's goal was to halve the price of their electric sports car every new model. I want my photovoltaic road surface.

Then a Tesla.

Test- Don't click

IOTW, it would revert student loans back to how it used to be, when 4 year schools actually provided value for money.

Oh well.

black dog,

The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

There are times it's better to be an early bird and times it's better to be a second mouse. I see no reason to rush into housing now. After the $8K incentive is removed, houses will fall by the $8K and then some.

so the rest of the weekend was bonus time.

I love it when that happens..........makes the month sweeter.

"there would be nothing from preventing a President from conducting a foreign war without any consent from Congress, "

To the extent it does not constitute a "high crime or misdemeanor."
Nixon secretly bombed Cambodia, even after Congress explicitly stated in legislation that the President could not use US $ to continue (he lied about it), and would likely have faced an article of impeachment on the issue.

B. Eason (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 5:08 pm
Cinco-X,
By law there is nothing that prevents us from employing mercenaries, and as a matter of fact, if the Security Forces become more powerful, there would be nothing from preventing a President from conducting a foreign war without any consent from Congress

A bad result no doubt, but I'd be even more worried about a President that might use them on the people of this country. BTW, I was throwing stuff out for consideration, but that doesn't mean I would necessarily advocate it. You (or someone) asked a question about what might happen if these folks were suddenly out of a job, and I made some suggestions about what could happen. Doesn't mean I'd like that to happen-

@HomeGnome,

Enjoy your trip to Italy.

From my experience, do not miss the Gelato.

Blackwater moving in on political control of Iraq, but it is certainly possible

And who's Airforce???

My point is, though, the US has been showing economic decay for over ten years now, and this decay doesn't just show up in the banking industry--decay runs throughout the entire system, and now the question is: what are the results in its entirety if the cracks break completely? So far the focus of economic collapse or a major downturn has only been narrowly focused, and as long as we stay in a narrow focus we will continue to be unprepared as a country and fail to take proper steps before the problem becomes critical.

Anyone who has witnessed or studied economic collapse of other countries or empires can see that the fallout is much great in extent than just high unemployment

Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 5:17 pm
Criminy. 5:08 cut and paste, click, whirr, if {topic}*X = {rant of day}>(rejoinder), (ins text "Y"), excellent reasoning nova...
Exasperates the problem indeed. Can't figure why Cinco's fallen for it.

Fallen for what?

I don't think so. And if you think many of these people have any problem working for organized crime, you better think again.

I would have thought this couldn't be right, but that was before those pictures of the contractors in Afganistan drinking out of each others' a$$es.

I'm getting ready for a system security update. My test machine accidentally pointed at the live database through a config error. Sorry.

BTW, I'll be taking the site offline around 11 tonight, should be for about an hour.

However, you don't think that through lobbying they couldn't just use the US Air Force like they currently do?

No

OT, doesn't this put us over $12.1 trillion in debt?

SEPTEMBER 17, 2009, 11:16 A.M. ET
US Treasury Plans To Sell $197B Next Week In 6 Securities

US Treasury Plans To Sell $197B Next Week In 6 Securities - WSJ.com

Looks like some Mississippi green shoots just died.
clarionledger.com | Jackson, MS | The Clarion-Ledger

doesn't this put us over $12.1 trillion in debt?

Not necessarily. Some, or a large chunk of that $197B could be roll over.

At worst, they'll lose their libraries, courts, playgrounds and senior centers. Residents will have nearly 1,050 fewer police officers and firefighters to protect them, and they'll have to hold onto their garbage for two weeks.

Philadelphia did not get the memo about the end of the recession:

Showdown over Philadelphia budget crisis - Sep. 17, 2009

doesn't this put us over $12.1 trillion in debt?

We're right around $12 Trillion. Close enough for gubbermint work.

Anyway, the added debt should make Ken Fisher VERY happy. He rightly claims we need MORE DEBT (otherwise the debt ponzi system collapses).

hit a royal flush at mcclaren airport - of course, playing the 1x quarter variation instead of the super-bonus 5x nickel variation which i'd been playing between sportsbook bets all weekend

Awww, Ken, so we get Drupal Blue Screen of Death again at 11pm Eastern?

At least I won't have to clean out the fridge again then.

C

Debt to the Penny
Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)

More greenies...
Georgia unemployment rate drops a notch
The jobless rate in Georgia ticked down slightly last month, but state officials say it’s because many people have apparently either stopped looking for work or left the state.

“The slight decline in Georgia’s labor market started skidding before the overall economy the August unemployment rate appears to be a bit of positive news,” said Michael Thurmond, state labor commissioner. “However, a closer examination reveals that the reduction was primarily due to workforce shrinkage.”

oh wait...

daddyo (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 5:42 pm
It seems like a step in the right direction, unless you favor goverment subsidies to private institutions.

What I do not favor is having the government determine who gets loans and who doesn't. We've seen how well THAT works!

this was idiot monkey jacks-or-better video poker. not much relation with the real thing.

are you going to host it with molsons and nachos in a nice north van pad, ehp?

HollywoodHack,
no idea
Cinco-x,
that is total us debt (fed + local + private) as reported by the Fed flow of funds. I'm just talking about total treasury issued debt

his example would never let him win a royal flush in hold'em. if he drew 10,J suited, he'd fold!

Saying "I'm Going to Italy" is almost like saying, "I'm going to Texas"

1. Avoid the train stations whenever possible. Equivalent in America is Greyhound Bus terminal. Wallet& passport along with hand in front left pocket, balled fist in right hand
2. Unless shopping, Milan can be done in a day
3. Never enough time in Florence or Rome
4. For food heaven, Emilia Reggiano can't be beat.
5. If in Pavia, email me and I'll get you the adress of the best restaurant that's cheap as all getout.

Counterpointer (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 5:59 pm
Cinco-X - conversing with the bot. You'll both fail the Turing at this rate.
C

B.E-A-S-O-N? How would I know he/she/it is a "BOT"

Hi, everybody.

HomeG I loved Florence.

Also Rome is endlessly fascination.

Mrs. Gnome and I want to stay away from the larger cities and just eat and drink for a week...

we went over this last night.

you can't sue the feds, YLSP.

YLSP (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 6:13 pm
How come no one has filed a lawsuit against US Treasury for use of funds re: automakers in US District Court? I think instead of getting involved in Chrysler BK I'm going to do that on grounds that Treasury violated Section I Article 8 and operated outside of the law. What equitiable relief can I ask for? Obviously recover as much of the $81B "investment" made on our behalf.
Clearly there is standing, injury and causation that US Treasury is violating the Constitution. How come no one has done this sooner?

The effects of pissing in the wind are well understood-

Naked Saudis. Well, that would be funny. Repulsive, but funny.

As war goes, that's the way to wage it.

later, all

nope, i lack the memory to be a decent card player. i enjoy drunken slop poker with buddies, with an hour or so of average income in the pot.

the sad thing about the rise of NLTHem is the demise of awesome games like night baseball, with house variations. good times.

What was Mark Harmon like.

You're a guy, but would I think he was yummy in person?

Coors .... hmmm

YouTube - Coors Aging Room Commericial with Mark Harmon

I'm drinking Grolsch

Anecdotes of the day:

Got a foreclosure dismissed today. On behalf of a condo assn.

The grounds? They sued on the basis that it was a reverse mtg and she
was dead. I filed an affidavit that she was alive; the condo people met with
her. Defense counsel didn't show.

I said at the end that this shows that there really is a defense to foreclosure,
in my snarky way, and everybody laughed, including the judge. It was motion
calendar, devoted solely to foreclosures.

This dates me:

I worked on this:

YouTube - Coors - To Be Continued (1) [1985]