Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc., continues to sell stock in the luxury home builder.
Mr. Toll, 68 years old, sold 1.58 million shares Wednesday, according to a securities filing by Toll Brothers Thursday. That included 452,182 shares acquired through stock options due to expire in December...............
Toll Brothers last month reported a loss of $472.3 million for its fiscal third quarter ended July 31, largely reflecting write downs of asset values. At that time, Mr. Toll told analysts in a conference call that stronger housing demand in recent months "makes us feel a whole lot better."
A 15% Y-o-Y occupancy drop in particularly bad in light of the fact that we're now past the start of the Lehman bankruptcy/TARP debate last year, when stuff halted.
CR - from what I'm hearing business isn't traveling. Not yet anyway.
I'm on the road a fair bit this month and next, but I took most of the summer off from travelling. Can't say I've noticed anything particularly abnormal in the Canadian travel market: planes are all full (at least the routes I take) and hotels have a decent compliment of guest. No firesale prices on anything I use, so far.
Fundamentals don't support this rally. That much is obvious. And let's not forget that Ken Fisher totally missed the meltdown.
I remember '92 when everyone--I mean EVERYONE--was calling a bottom in Japan's market at 18,000. EVERYBODY was piling money into Japan. For many, it was their first experience in putting money into foreign markets. We know how that turned out.
The US economy is entering a phase that can best be likened to Japan's problem. Let's hope it works out that well.
Private Savings = +$914B (includes personal savings)
Government (dis)Savings = -$1306
Total Savings = -$392B
The personal savings number is a sham too if you use a cash basis (BEA tables).
And in reality, the numbers are far worse as unfunded liabilities are NOT accounted for. Same with unfunded private pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB).
Americans have been ripped off by Wall St. and Corporate insiders.
And that's why I pay attention to RevPAR instead of occupancy rates. Shack-ups and nooners count to occupancy but the reduced rates for the short-time rentals hits the RevPAR.
But when the hell does it finally go south? My better half is cocking her eyebrow at me routinely when she checks the newspaper.
The funny thing is that there's still plenty of wealth "unlocking" potential in this eCONomy. 1/3rd of homeowners have no mortgage. Talk about a bullseye or trophy buck!
noob - Canada 'decoupled' from the US market long ago - didn't you get the memo?
I personally liken it to a really long leash with a dog owner who just fell off a cliff. The dog may think they're decoupled, but will soon be on the receiving end of an unpleasant surprise.
During his confirmation hearing last year, Scott O'Malia, a Republican Senate aide nominated to be a commissioner on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, testified that while working for an energy firm years earlier, the "Enron debacle" had opened his eyes "to the very serious consequences of...inadequate oversight." O'Malia, who'd been nominated by President George W. Bush, added, "I learned firsthand the devastating impacts a flawed market design can have on consumers and markets." What he didn't tell senators was that he'd learned all this as a lobbyist for a company engaged in Enron-like misconduct that had pushed for deregulation of energy trading. His appointment to the CFTC, an important watchdog agency that oversees the trading of agricultural and energy futures, was subsequently blocked for reasons unrelated to his nomination. But now O'Malia is back. The former lobbyist has been nominated to the CFTC once again, this time by President Barack Obama
And that's why I pay attention to RevPAR instead of occupancy rates. Shack-ups and nooners count to occupancy but the reduced rates for the short-time rentals hits the RevPAR.
I thought those were all 'cash transactions' - if you catch my drift - and don't show up in the occupancy numbers at all.
H1N1 will not improve Revpar! The jobless recovery, which is now in full-blown hype mode, will be impacted by the reality of non-existent future cash flow, i.e, people will be cautious with cash and travel IMHO. Nonetheless, airlines will probably offer cheap fares and many sick people will help continue spreading swine germs.... YouTube - Swine Flu Pandemic @ 2 Billion !!!!!
Can't say I've noticed anything particularly abnormal in the Canadian travel market: planes are all full (at least the routes I take) and hotels have a decent compliment of guest
I travel in the states and I have noticed more frequent use of smaller aircraft (CRJ's and prop planes), but those are full. This reduces operating costs and justifies maintaining prices, because if you have to travel and there are limited seats...you'll pay.
Most hotel prices have been down modestly, but some places (like Boston and New York) are just ridiculous, still. Must be folks from across the pond spending their Euros that have appreciated 50%!
Maybe Native Indians knew something about Manhattan when they sold it for 20+ dollars worth of trinkets. The place is evil and cursed! Now look at the Wall Street....maybe Americans should sell it forward to Chinese...
How many 20-somethings are spending their life in hotel rooms for their first consultant job out of university or grad school like they were a few years ago? Remove that component from the data and are we still seeing as much cliff diving?
Angry saver - it's all about securitizing life insurance policies, buyouts, and reverse mortgages...trust me, they will attack that fat hungrily, with sharp knives.
I had to get up at oh-dark-thirty this morning to participate (on the phone) in a meeting held in north-central Europe.
In a normal year, many or most attendees would have traveled to the meeting.
This time, more than half of the attendees participated by telephone, and we barely got a quorum.
Not the best news for hotels, but I'm thinking about getting long telephone companies.
The clock is ticking on Operation Chipmunk, which commences at 0800 Friday.
Mr. Chipmunk, as clever as he is, is unaware that, at 0730 Friday, the political dynamic will change and his protector will be temporarily away from the scene.
Mrs. mp is leaving on a morning shopping expedition, thus opening a window of opportunity which will lead to Mr. Chipmunk's demise.
In brief, Mr. Chipmunk's ass will become grass, and I will be the lawnmower.
Wife used Priceline to get $55 a night for us at a place on the Pacific coast where list was $150. The bid was accepted immediately (by the hotel). Not big Priceline users here, so I don't know if the hotel had an order out to accept any bid. It sure seemed desperate
I had to get up at oh-dark-thirty this morning to participate (on the phone) in a meeting held in north-central Europe.
In a normal year, many or most attendees would have traveled to the meeting.
This time, more than half of the attendees participated by telephone, and we barely got a quorum.
Not the best news for hotels, but I'm thinking about getting long telephone companies.
The meeting I'm travelling to next week is exactly the same story. Normally there might only be one person who can't make it due to a scheduling conflict, but this year 4 or 5 have indicated they'll be participating by phone or simply not participating at all due to budgetary problems.
I know there are budgetary problems throughout companies in Canada as well, which makes it weird that airline travel still seems really busy. My flights next week take me on four different planes, and it appears that all of them are already booked at 80-90%.
makes it weird that airline travel still seems really busy. My flights next week take me on four different planes, and it appears that all of them are already booked at 80-90%.
''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
More useful, you can surf the Web while someone drones on.
However, much more difficult to acquire consensus on anything because 3/4 of the phone people are distracted by Internet surfing and people barging in and out of the office asking questions.
Timmaaayyyy! Hanky Pankaaayyyy! I WANT MY TARP MONEY BACK!
From Q2, 2009 FOF:
Total net borrowing = -$241.1B
Total Gov't borrowing = +$1,895.3B
Total Private Borrowing = -2,136.4B
Total net lending = -$241.1B
Monetary Authority lending = +$1,196.1B
For crying out loud, private bank lending (not counting the Fed) was negative $1.437.2 TRILLION!
Surprise, surprise. The banks didn't use the TARP & bailout money to lend for productive endeavors as Bernanke, Paulson & Geithner said they would. The above proves an inCONvenient truth: we gave our money to the banks to fill a black hole, so so they could speculate on paper assets (at lower prices) and pay bonuses.
What a scam. A total sham. The biggest rip-off in history.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Thursday that the anti-government rhetoric over President Barack Obama's health care reform effort is concerning because it reminds her of the violent debate over gay rights that roiled San Francisco in the 1970s.
Pelosi is concerned that anti-government rhetoric over health care could be similar to the gay rights struggle in 70s San Fran?
As long as it costs less than $55 per night per room for that hotel to operate, it's not too desperate. Now if the owner bought the hotel at inflated prices, leveraged to the hilt, needing to rent rooms at $150 to turn a profit, then they are desperate. It's like a landlord who doesn't want to decrease rent on their property when a lease is being renewed. Instead they play hardball, lose one month's rent (at the lowered rate) and find someone willing to play the old rate. But 11 months of higher rent still can't claw back one month of vacancy. The problem of debt.
"Financial history is filled with financial liberalisations gone wrong and Japan’s bubble can be traced directly to the removal of controls on international capital flows and banking in the early 1980s. Seeking a larger international role for the renminbi, China is now, albeit tentatively, embarking on a similar path. Full liberalisation, when it occurs, could be the starting gun for the biggest bubble the world has ever seen."
If China proceeds with the un-pegging, capital will flow out of the US and into China. How carefully will it be invested? Probably not very...
noob goldberg,
There is a strong duopoly of airlines in Canada. The foreign flights they do allow generally get a single stop in Canada, by allowing like 3 flights per week which all end up at Pearson. The Vancouver - Toronto route is one big moneymaker. Price drops in half if you fly through Seattle or Buffalo.
(edit: part of the difference in fares is in Canada the Federal government extracts high rents from airports, while in the US city/country/state/federal governments are more inclined to provide support)
"So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again? "
Strawberry milkshake has been a smashing success in Iran, don't you know. Why they just BUY some nice nukes from Russia or Pakistan and declare "Israel ain't gonna attack us no more or else...". After all, Iranians have not attacked anybody for over 200 years...
Re: "Pelosi is concerned that anti-government rhetoric over health care could be similar to the gay rights struggle in 70s San Fran?"
As I recall, that was a huge bloody battle ...... WTF is she thinking, is she the new Palin, or a person unable to communicate? I really don't want to imagine how she worked her way to the top....
Every single hospitality transaction of the last decade is severely underwater. Even if they used to be ongoing concerns sometime in the last decade they were also pressured to "go upscale" or recapitalize or some other code for extract equity and take on more debt.
Once Pakistan got the bomb, it was just a matter of time before the usual suspects wanted/got one.
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Because they saw how profitable it is to have nukes and be located in a geographic hot spot. The regime in power can do whatever they want inside their own borders and the foreign aid money will continue to flow like tap water.
That PragCap piece has a table linking financial manias and geopolitical shifts; it has the pre-depression stock bubble linked to "Great Powers in disarray following WW1".
dryfly, the summer leisure travel probably kept many hotels afloat - but if RevPAR is off 20% for the next couple of months, I think we will see many more hotel foreclosures.
Thanks for the info on business travel - I'm not seeing it yet either.
That PragCap piece has a table linking financial manias and geopolitical shifts; it has the pre-depression stock bubble linked to "Great Powers in disarray following WW1".
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 11:21 am
dryfly, the summer leisure travel probably kept many hotels afloat - but if RevPAR is off 20% for the next couple of months, I think we will see many more hotel foreclosures.
With all due respect i think you meant to say; "we will see many more hotel workouts, debt refinancings and even a few foreclosures." The holders of hospitality debt just plain old cannot afford to foreclose on all the eligible properties.
If I was trying to bullshit the American people, a 10,000 Dow looks mighty impressive to folks that only hear "The Dow rocketed over 10,000, as the recession is now over", and you know how we like round numbers?
As I recall, that was a huge bloody battle ...... WTF is she thinking, is she the new Palin, or a person unable to communicate?
I guess that I think comparing the two seems odd to me because of scope and scale. Maybe this debate will be less violent because it is so abstract and the parties are spread out as opposed to citizens of just a single city. Also with the use of Medicare & Medicaid, there is some concept of the gov't in practice here were there was no where that had openly accepted gays in the 70s.
_
Dunno, but I would say that she is over her head no matter where it all goes.
Sure, Iran is a candidate. Historically, Iran/Persia has controlled big chunks of South Asia/Middle East at different times. I think though that a massive Chinese bubble once they unpeg from the dollar is more likely.
Counterpointer - the ultimate in moral hazard....screw up royally, we'll let you play calvinball. Just one more reason to firmly entrench the "well, everybody else was doing it, why shouldnt we" rule. IDIOTIC.
Rob, yes - more extend and pretend for hotels for sure! Why foreclosure, when you can pretend the loan is current. But at these RevPAR numbers, I suspect here are some hotels that will just have trouble making payroll - even with a number of floors closed.
Looks like things are lining up for quad witching. 10-year yield is tightening, US futes down, Dow looking fragile, Blackrock talking up the USD, Asia futures flat except where they're bleeding elmo like ASX, which raises some queries for me about metals, commodities and China prospects.
So, pump a rally to end the day and unload a 100m pile tomorrow morning on the open? Or just get on with it at 3:25 anyway?
Citi could easily break the billion trades mark by 3pm anyway.
So, the thing about this hotel thing is...I'm not having a lot of luck negotiating discounts. I guess things aren't off so much in the places I want to visit.
The company also warned in a regulatory filing on Thursday that it is "reasonably likely" that it will record a third-quarter non-cash impairment charge related to its massive CityCenter project. It said it could not estimate the size of the charge.
Gross private domestic investment has dropped ~$600B since the TARP was passed. Rumor has it, banks are "investing" the TARP money in exisiting paper assets, as they have a higher year end bonus yield.
Thanks CONgress.
Bankers to Main St.: So long and thanks for the TARP! Enjoy your depression and unemployment benefits (while they last).
"So, the thing about this hotel thing is...I'm not having a lot of luck negotiating discounts. I guess things aren't off so much in the places I want to visit."
i don't think that is the issue, scott. i think hotels are gouging what customers they have to try to recover some of their cost. that is a retarded analysis, i know. but, i stayed at the peabody the last two weekends. rates were lower on weekend 1 when the place was packed, higher on weekend 2 when the place was empty. strangeness, but this is the only fubar'd conclusion i could come up with.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 11:33 am
When I see this sign @ the Ritz-Carlton, i'll know things have taken a turn for the worse in the hotel biz...
"$999 Weekly, $2999 Monthly"
As a point of reference my eldest is getting per person double occupancy room and board at UCLA for more than what per person single single occupancy at an adjacent 4 star with room service would cost. The kicker? The UCLA prices are proposed to rise 30% (thirty percent) next year at latest.
As a point of reference my eldest is getting per person double occupancy room and board at UCLA for more than what per person single single occupancy at an adjacent 4 star with room service would cost.
Was in DC this week and, even with Congress back in session, the airports and the planes was less crowded than when I was there in July. Maybe it is the effect of not having all the school tours there this time of year. I have to head back next week and it will be interesting to see if it is the same.
Dining Room at the Ritz-Carlton phoned last night to let me know that as of October 1, the famed five-star room will close after 25 years of service to Atlanta.
JBR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 11:41 am
As a point of reference my eldest is getting per person double occupancy room and board at UCLA for more than what per person single single occupancy at an adjacent 4 star with room service would cost.
Time to move her to the hotel then.
At least per the State Constitution tuition is free.
The Regents have absolutely no idea what's coming. The social contract is at the breaking point.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 11:03 am
reply ignore user
Pavel writes;
"If they existed."
So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again?
GWB misheard turbans when he heard turbines during a security update.
Thus you had his true first utterance of the phrase "this suckers going down"
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 2:01 pm
"pavel, it doesn't matter if they exist or not. Ask Hussein."
Is that the name of Schroedinger's cat?
Interesting choice of allusions, considering that the cat could be killed by the decay of a radioactive isotope. Were you planning on it working at that level?
"We must move forward on our work as quickly as possible so that it is as relevant as possible to the policymakers in Congress," said Angelides, a former state treasurer for California.
After that heads will roll, surely.
Angelides said he plans to release much of the panel's findings ahead of its December 2010 deadline in the hopes of informing congressional debate on the issue.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 2:03 pm
Pavel writes;
"If they existed."
So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again?
Enriched Uranium, and that's the problem; it's difficult to differentiate between fuel for a reactor and fuel for a bomb without close oversight, and even then, since they use essentially the same technology for refinement, it's a relatively small step to weapon-ise the fuel.
"Wife used Priceline to get $55 a night for us at a place on the Pacific coast where list was $150. The bid was accepted immediately (by the hotel). Not big Priceline users here, so I don't know if the hotel had an order out to accept any bid. It sure seemed desperate "
My wife uses biddingfortravel.com (I think that's the link) to pre-determine what hotels are 'winning' the bids and for how much.
We even pricelined our honeymoon.
One of the hotels we stayed at is now bankrupt.
Dorm were always pricey... I knew a dozen students who did a nine month hotel lease (dedicated floor) to save a few bucks. But the social life wasn't at good as the dorms... so they signed onto the meal plan. They saved a few grand and had maid service included!
S&P said its new criteria will become "effective immediately for cash-flow CDOs backed by corporate debt and for synthetic CDOs that reference pools of corporate obligations," a move that will trigger downgrades, according to Thomas Gillis, chief credit officer at S&P.
"Our preliminary estimates are that outstanding synthetic CDOs will likely experience an average downgrade of four notches," he said.
airlines may be having trouble, but AMR did pretty well in its capital raising activity today. Id say, fantastic timing on that one. Give it two months, the deal wouldnt get done.
OT but totally fascinating: Jupiter’s Magnetic Moon Generates Spectacular Light Show
Jupiter’s largest moon, Ganymede, is also its only moon with a strong magnetic field. Now, using thousands of images from the Hubble Space Telescope, scientists have discovered that the spectacular auroras seen at Jupiter’s poles are generated in part by the pull of Ganymede’s magnetosphere. Jupiter’s Magnetic Moon Generates Spectacular Light Show | Wired Science | Wired.com
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 2:54 pm
I was wondering about manufacturing weekly hours and overtime, here is the simple relation between the 2
The airlines are having their own "rev-par" types of issues - less business travelers overpaying for last minute flights: http://zikkir.com/business/3766?wscr=1600x1200
I'm no road warrior, I'm only on the road once in a while. However, although the planes I've been on recently are still full, I just booked a flight a few days in advance--which is usually approaching the high fare wall--at a price virtually no different than the fares further out. This has happened a few times recently, with regards to last minute changes, but we seem to be a long ways away from the extra $4-500 I was shelling out in the end of '07 for flight with only a couple of days lead time.
I'm also noticing that my pre-flight seat selection, even a few hours before the flight, shows a large number of empty seats, but the plane is frequently full. I'm wondering how many of those last-minute passengers are high-paying business flyers and how many are discount seats or cheap stand-by customers?
On the other hand, manufacturing is a much smaller component of the economy today than in 1982.
For a comparison that covers the service sector as well, look at the number of part-time workers for economic reasons in Part-Time vs. Slack Work (difference is part-timers don't get health benefits, while regular employees doing slack work do)
JBR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 3:04 pm
yep, and if you draw a trendline across the lows from the beginning of the chart, it seems we're back to normal. See, everythings just fine! Green Shoots
However, integrating the chart to zero (based on my experimental eyeball integrator) appears to put the nominal at between 8-9%.
So, I'm curious: why will the Regents be particularly affected by the breaking of the social contract...I figured it was the plutocrats who were in for a rude awakening!
Oh, I always thought you had to pay the full day's rate for a nooner. What a dope I am.
Let me tell you, nothing's sexier when sneaking away for a brief noon-time triste than spending 10 minutes haggling with the hotel front desk over how cheap you're going to get the room.
I guess I wanted to check and see if things were so tightened in manufacturing that there could be the first inventory led correction since 1982. All of the inventory led recoveries had less than 6% of hours in overtime. The lowest it went this time was 6.6% in March. Add in the fact that inventories are tight if and only if end sales jump over 10% by year end (as production is pre-emptively underway). The Treasury and Federal Reserve will be working over time this holiday season because the last stimulus didn't even keep things presentable for 6-8 months. The 2010 mid-term elections will revolve around stimulus/government employment, regulating basket case industries like finance and airlines, the now popular desire to cut government spending.
They say the first thing that one must do in face of a crisis is psychologically come to terms with the fact that you are in a serious crisis and that crisis is long term--apparently this first stage has yet to set in for many Americans concerning the very real economic crisis.
I suppose many of us will continue to believe that there actually is a recovery and that NBER's definitions actually have a grip on reality.
Hotel's will decline this week and next, and will continue to do so because business travel is not going to pick up; and why should we expect it to when the real economy continues to contract?
The US is facing a credit implosion, and given our debt based economy this can only mean nothing short of a disaster, a disaster in the scale of ~30% GDP contraction when all is said and done. The government can continue to prop the banking world and Wall Street up, and that will in turn spell the doom of the US government as its debt is now well past the upward turn in exponential growth.
Although many of us may joke about the media hype "recovery" and the impact it will have, but the laughing will stop for everyone short of the insane when the economy finally does implode as there will be no one that will escape its effects. Ask yourself: how much do you actually rely on infrastructure? Trash, security, medical, sewage, power, food, water, transportation, employment, etc. A ~30% contraction in GDP with a bankrupt government will disrupt all of these aspects, if not even put a stop to some or all of them in many areas.
Mr. Bernanke may get his asset bubble, but I suspect it will only lasts months, and then will get a much greater implosion on GDP. A debt based economy cannot suffer even slight contractions for a series of quarters without imploding, and the only thing maintaining an utter implosion are impossible to sustain amounts of government spending, and when that runs out: I suggest and hope you are prepared.
It is beginning to slow down where I work. The Great Migration is complete now, the people who winter in Florida are there; families are hunkered down due to finance issues and school being back in session, and business travellers have not appeared in any great numbers.
Of course when I say beginning to slow I am speaking of slowing from an already slimmer than normal number. Now though I think the construction crews that we have had for the past few months will soon be winding up and no longer coming and THAT is going to leave an even bigger mark. The itty bitty teensy green shootz I had noticed at work are getting ready for winter die-off and it is going to be difficult I believe. hahaha, sorry, even more difficult.
PS Get ready for a pig; whenever I post on these hotel threads within 5 minutes a new thread comes up.
"The clock is ticking on Operation Chipmunk, which commences at 0800 Friday."
The Ballad of "Felonious Munk"
A chipmunk was driven, by hunger or fear,
To invade the home of a commenter here.
Wily and crafty, he did evade
The cats and the traps
That were carefully laid,
And for days roamed the compound
In total defiance of every device
Invented by Science
For the capturing of rodents,
As if by a hunch,
Quietly plotting
To eat the cat's lunch.
It so drove our friend
To such an extreme,
He devised a plan
Claimed to work like a dream.
Our intrepid inventor planned his attack
Like a well crafted scene
Out of "Caddyshack",
The outcome of which
He claims is a lock,
With time running out
On our poor chipmunk's clock.
HomeGnome - which part you headed to? My favorites were Montalcino and Alba, mostly because of the food and wine. You can go around and taste Brunello one day, and then stop in at Parma on your way north, see if you can find your way to get a parmesan co-op tour, and then head up to piedmont and go castle hopping/wine tasting. Your a bit early for truffle season, but the food in the piedmont region was to die for, even if you Didnt do truffle based stuff.
(edit: part of the difference in fares is in Canada the Federal government extracts high rents from airports, while in the US city/country/state/federal governments are more inclined to provide support)
per last night's NBC news, you may want to re-edit "city/country/state/federal governments" to "the traveling public".........
I'm just a poor dumb slob, but the received wisdom ever since commercial air travel began is that your chances of making money in the business are slim to none (Southwest being a bright exception)
So, how is that AA manages to raise a bundle in this environment (did it all come from the drug cartel, since that particular airline has a long history in that area......)?
SF is completely booked out early / mid next week, prices at premium. New York prices are at a premium end of September / beginning of October ....people still paying it seems.
Sorry for being on topic. I'm a misfit and won't comment anymore.
foyst?
Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc., continues to sell stock in the luxury home builder.
Mr. Toll, 68 years old, sold 1.58 million shares Wednesday, according to a securities filing by Toll Brothers Thursday. That included 452,182 shares acquired through stock options due to expire in December...............
Toll Brothers last month reported a loss of $472.3 million for its fiscal third quarter ended July 31, largely reflecting write downs of asset values. At that time, Mr. Toll told analysts in a conference call that stronger housing demand in recent months "makes us feel a whole lot better."
Toll CEO Sells More Stock in Luxury Home Builder - WSJ.com
Who can afford to stay at a hotel when there are tons of vacant homes available?
RRrrrrrevvv it up, Forrest!
CR - from what I'm hearing business isn't traveling. Not yet anyway.
A 15% Y-o-Y occupancy drop in particularly bad in light of the fact that we're now past the start of the Lehman bankruptcy/TARP debate last year, when stuff halted.
"Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc., "
Don't they sponsor the Saturday opera on the radio?
Perhaps the hefty lady has sung.
re: Hotels
I guess we can expect more little fees and charges for every little thing in the hotel room and building
Nouveau Poor Facing Discrimination From Old Poor
Surges in demand from FDIC strike forces aren't helping? For shame.
C
"Who can afford to stay at a hotel when there are tons of vacant homes available?"
Careful in south Florida! The pet African rock pythons might still be in residence, and a bit peckish.
CR - from what I'm hearing business isn't traveling. Not yet anyway.
I'm on the road a fair bit this month and next, but I took most of the summer off from travelling. Can't say I've noticed anything particularly abnormal in the Canadian travel market: planes are all full (at least the routes I take) and hotels have a decent compliment of guest. No firesale prices on anything I use, so far.
I just noticed that the dark blue recession area has stopped on your graphs, CR.
Is this appropriate for the hotel graphs too?
Fundamentals don't support this rally. That much is obvious. And let's not forget that Ken Fisher totally missed the meltdown.
I remember '92 when everyone--I mean EVERYONE--was calling a bottom in Japan's market at 18,000. EVERYBODY was piling money into Japan. For many, it was their first experience in putting money into foreign markets. We know how that turned out.
The US economy is entering a phase that can best be likened to Japan's problem. Let's hope it works out that well.
Just part of the continental breakfast.
The "savings" myth.
Per Q2, 2009 FOF:
Personal savings = +$545B
Private Savings = +$914B (includes personal savings)
Government (dis)Savings = -$1306
Total Savings = -$392B
The personal savings number is a sham too if you use a cash basis (BEA tables).
And in reality, the numbers are far worse as unfunded liabilities are NOT accounted for. Same with unfunded private pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB).
Americans have been ripped off by Wall St. and Corporate insiders.
We need the prompt passage of Clawback laws.
Fundamentals don't support this rally. That much is obvious. And let's not forget that Ken Fisher totally missed the meltdown.
Ya on the tail end of the vid he's faced with that from the interviewers... his excuse: hoocoodanode. Typical stock salesman.
"Americans have been ripped off by Wall St. and Corporate insiders."
It is our destiny. (pat. pending, slavic fatalism).
"We'll leave the light on for you, if we can pay our electric bill this month"
noob - Canada 'decoupled' from the US market long ago - didn't you get the memo?
And that's why I pay attention to RevPAR instead of occupancy rates. Shack-ups and nooners count to occupancy but the reduced rates for the short-time rentals hits the RevPAR.
But when the hell does it finally go south? My better half is cocking her eyebrow at me routinely when she checks the newspaper.
Ah well...
It is our destiny
Manifest destiny in America.
The funny thing is that there's still plenty of wealth "unlocking" potential in this eCONomy. 1/3rd of homeowners have no mortgage. Talk about a bullseye or trophy buck!
OT, but it seems that my amateur thoughts on a previous thread on the BMD back down were just that - amateur and shallow.
If I was 68 I would be selling as well. If I was 38, that might be a different story.
Maybe if these hotels starting taking gold coins and bars occupancy would go up?
(pig schooling)
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:10 am
Noob, try to get the basics right.
in 1967, Americans couldn't own gold.
++++++++++++++++++
Correction, oh book-smart one...
Americans could freely own any coins dated before 1933, from the late 30's until 1975, and since then, you can own it in any form you'd like.
Hotels apparently didn't get the message about the recession being over.
Iranian nukes are bullish for gold right?
noob - Canada 'decoupled' from the US market long ago - didn't you get the memo?
I personally liken it to a really long leash with a dog owner who just fell off a cliff. The dog may think they're decoupled, but will soon be on the receiving end of an unpleasant surprise.
"The funny thing is that there's still plenty of wealth "unlocking" potential "
Yes! Remarked on that a day or so ago here. The wealth is still there, and so is the opportunity.
During his confirmation hearing last year, Scott O'Malia, a Republican Senate aide nominated to be a commissioner on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, testified that while working for an energy firm years earlier, the "Enron debacle" had opened his eyes "to the very serious consequences of...inadequate oversight." O'Malia, who'd been nominated by President George W. Bush, added, "I learned firsthand the devastating impacts a flawed market design can have on consumers and markets." What he didn't tell senators was that he'd learned all this as a lobbyist for a company engaged in Enron-like misconduct that had pushed for deregulation of energy trading. His appointment to the CFTC, an important watchdog agency that oversees the trading of agricultural and energy futures, was subsequently blocked for reasons unrelated to his nomination. But now O'Malia is back. The former lobbyist has been nominated to the CFTC once again, this time by President Barack Obama
Trading Places: From Ex-Lobbyist to Market Watchdog | Mother Jones
And that's why I pay attention to RevPAR instead of occupancy rates. Shack-ups and nooners count to occupancy but the reduced rates for the short-time rentals hits the RevPAR.
I thought those were all 'cash transactions' - if you catch my drift - and don't show up in the occupancy numbers at all.
H1N1 will not improve Revpar! The jobless recovery, which is now in full-blown hype mode, will be impacted by the reality of non-existent future cash flow, i.e, people will be cautious with cash and travel IMHO. Nonetheless, airlines will probably offer cheap fares and many sick people will help continue spreading swine germs....
YouTube - Swine Flu Pandemic @ 2 Billion !!!!!
I travel in the states and I have noticed more frequent use of smaller aircraft (CRJ's and prop planes), but those are full. This reduces operating costs and justifies maintaining prices, because if you have to travel and there are limited seats...you'll pay.
Most hotel prices have been down modestly, but some places (like Boston and New York) are just ridiculous, still. Must be folks from across the pond spending their Euros that have appreciated 50%!
"Iranian nukes are bullish for gold right?"
If they existed.
montas ankle - this was my comment at 10:51 this morning. I think we're out of the blue.
/and into the black...
YouTube - Neil Young & Crazy Horse - Hey Hey, My My
C
Maybe Native Indians knew something about Manhattan when they sold it for 20+ dollars worth of trinkets. The place is evil and cursed! Now look at the Wall Street....maybe Americans should sell it forward to Chinese...
Any update yet on mp's hunt today?
love that song
not as much as Like a Hurricane though
How many 20-somethings are spending their life in hotel rooms for their first consultant job out of university or grad school like they were a few years ago? Remove that component from the data and are we still seeing as much cliff diving?
pavel, it doesn't matter if they exist or not. Ask Hussein.
Angry saver - it's all about securitizing life insurance policies, buyouts, and reverse mortgages...trust me, they will attack that fat hungrily, with sharp knives.
"pavel, it doesn't matter if they exist or not. Ask Hussein."
Is that the name of Schroedinger's cat?
10-year yields diving. Not really a green-shootism.
Somewhat on topic:
I had to get up at oh-dark-thirty this morning to participate (on the phone) in a meeting held in north-central Europe.
In a normal year, many or most attendees would have traveled to the meeting.
This time, more than half of the attendees participated by telephone, and we barely got a quorum.
Not the best news for hotels, but I'm thinking about getting long telephone companies.
Pavel writes;
"If they existed."
So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again?
Are telephone meetings just as useless as the ones in the flesh?
Any update yet on mp's hunt today?
The clock is ticking on Operation Chipmunk, which commences at 0800 Friday.
Mr. Chipmunk, as clever as he is, is unaware that, at 0730 Friday, the political dynamic will change and his protector will be temporarily away from the scene.
Mrs. mp is leaving on a morning shopping expedition, thus opening a window of opportunity which will lead to Mr. Chipmunk's demise.
In brief, Mr. Chipmunk's ass will become grass, and I will be the lawnmower.
"10-year yields diving. Not really a green-shootism."
Wait. I thought low rates were great for (mal)investment in housing/CRE and other green shootery?
Wife used Priceline to get $55 a night for us at a place on the Pacific coast where list was $150. The bid was accepted immediately (by the hotel). Not big Priceline users here, so I don't know if the hotel had an order out to accept any bid. It sure seemed desperate
Are telephone meetings just as useless as the ones in the flesh?
More useful, you can surf the Web while someone drones on.
I had to get up at oh-dark-thirty this morning to participate (on the phone) in a meeting held in north-central Europe.
In a normal year, many or most attendees would have traveled to the meeting.
This time, more than half of the attendees participated by telephone, and we barely got a quorum.
Not the best news for hotels, but I'm thinking about getting long telephone companies.
The meeting I'm travelling to next week is exactly the same story. Normally there might only be one person who can't make it due to a scheduling conflict, but this year 4 or 5 have indicated they'll be participating by phone or simply not participating at all due to budgetary problems.
I know there are budgetary problems throughout companies in Canada as well, which makes it weird that airline travel still seems really busy. My flights next week take me on four different planes, and it appears that all of them are already booked at 80-90%.
How does Revpar impact the hookers?
Oh no! Run, cp, run!
Who doesn't love a sudden-death overtime game?
"Are telephone meetings just as useless as the ones in the flesh?"
Pretty much. Especially when they are meetings that require a quorum to formalize work and decisions made elsewhere.
makes it weird that airline travel still seems really busy. My flights next week take me on four different planes, and it appears that all of them are already booked at 80-90%.
''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
Airlines slashing routes/flights
More useful, you can surf the Web while someone drones on.
However, much more difficult to acquire consensus on anything because 3/4 of the phone people are distracted by Internet surfing and people barging in and out of the office asking questions.
Another 'green shoot' for localities counting on ~10% lodging tax.
Who doesn't love a sudden-debt over time game?
"The clock is ticking on Operation Chipmunk, which commences at 0800 Friday."
What is Conjure's Chipmunk clock at?
Timmaaayyyy! Hanky Pankaaayyyy! I WANT MY TARP MONEY BACK!
From Q2, 2009 FOF:
Total net borrowing = -$241.1B
Total Gov't borrowing = +$1,895.3B
Total Private Borrowing = -2,136.4B
Total net lending = -$241.1B
Monetary Authority lending = +$1,196.1B
For crying out loud, private bank lending (not counting the Fed) was negative $1.437.2 TRILLION!
Surprise, surprise. The banks didn't use the TARP & bailout money to lend for productive endeavors as Bernanke, Paulson & Geithner said they would. The above proves an inCONvenient truth: we gave our money to the banks to fill a black hole, so so they could speculate on paper assets (at lower prices) and pay bonuses.
What a scam. A total sham. The biggest rip-off in history.
OT:
Pelosi is concerned that anti-government rhetoric over health care could be similar to the gay rights struggle in 70s San Fran?
As long as it costs less than $55 per night per room for that hotel to operate, it's not too desperate. Now if the owner bought the hotel at inflated prices, leveraged to the hilt, needing to rent rooms at $150 to turn a profit, then they are desperate. It's like a landlord who doesn't want to decrease rent on their property when a lease is being renewed. Instead they play hardball, lose one month's rent (at the lowered rate) and find someone willing to play the old rate. But 11 months of higher rent still can't claw back one month of vacancy. The problem of debt.
Related...Pragmatic Capitalist says CHINA WILL BE A BIGGER BUBBLE THAN JAPAN:
"Financial history is filled with financial liberalisations gone wrong and Japan’s bubble can be traced directly to the removal of controls on international capital flows and banking in the early 1980s. Seeking a larger international role for the renminbi, China is now, albeit tentatively, embarking on a similar path. Full liberalisation, when it occurs, could be the starting gun for the biggest bubble the world has ever seen."
If China proceeds with the un-pegging, capital will flow out of the US and into China. How carefully will it be invested? Probably not very...
Benjamins ain't nobody's fool, he got a 1590 out of 1600 on his SAT score...
But whose fool is he exactly?
Who wields the puppet strings that muffle his vocal strings?
@MP Fundamentals don't support this rally. That much is obvious.
Um, don't lookee now, but I think gravity is considering re-asserting itself.
I think I got lucky and was on the right side of a short squeeze in GE and GNW.
noob goldberg,
There is a strong duopoly of airlines in Canada. The foreign flights they do allow generally get a single stop in Canada, by allowing like 3 flights per week which all end up at Pearson. The Vancouver - Toronto route is one big moneymaker. Price drops in half if you fly through Seattle or Buffalo.
(edit: part of the difference in fares is in Canada the Federal government extracts high rents from airports, while in the US city/country/state/federal governments are more inclined to provide support)
"So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again? "
Strawberry milkshake has been a smashing success in Iran, don't you know. Why they just BUY some nice nukes from Russia or Pakistan and declare "Israel ain't gonna attack us no more or else...". After all, Iranians have not attacked anybody for over 200 years...
Re: "Pelosi is concerned that anti-government rhetoric over health care could be similar to the gay rights struggle in 70s San Fran?"
As I recall, that was a huge bloody battle ...... WTF is she thinking, is she the new Palin, or a person unable to communicate? I really don't want to imagine how she worked her way to the top....
"Pavel writes;
"If they existed."
So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again?"
It takes more than centrifuges. If they really had the weapons or were close to having them the balloon would have gone up by now.
Conjure is away on a business trip.
Anyway, Conjure wouldn't bother with a chipmunk, except to place bets on it.
Once Pakistan got the bomb, it was just a matter of time before the usual suspects wanted/got one.
Wow that hotel number has really gain some weight over the last few weeks.
China MOF: To Issue 2-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year Yuan Bonds In HK
China MOF: To Issue 2-Year, 3-Year, 5-Year Yuan Bonds In HK - WSJ.com
I'm thinking that this property is probably leveraged. Based on the appearance I'd say it was constructed or renovated in the last 5 years.
Dumpsters soon to be manufactured as Mc hotel and Inns!
So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again?
------------------__-----------------
Cotton Candy?
Every single hospitality transaction of the last decade is severely underwater. Even if they used to be ongoing concerns sometime in the last decade they were also pressured to "go upscale" or recapitalize or some other code for extract equity and take on more debt.
Once Pakistan got the bomb, it was just a matter of time before the usual suspects wanted/got one.
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
Because they saw how profitable it is to have nukes and be located in a geographic hot spot. The regime in power can do whatever they want inside their own borders and the foreign aid money will continue to flow like tap water.
What odds is Coujure giving for Mr. Chipmunk seeing another Monday?
Moody’s Sees Double-Digit Leveraged Loan Defaults in 2009
Research Recap » Blog Archive » Moody’s Sees Double-Digit Leveraged Loan Defaults in 2009
MP'S CHIPMUNK COUNTDOWN CLOCK
18 hours, 42 minutes to Operation Chipmunk
Have a good day.
That PragCap piece has a table linking financial manias and geopolitical shifts; it has the pre-depression stock bubble linked to "Great Powers in disarray following WW1".
Look at how we treat Lil' Kim since he joined the club...
500,000 tons of American wheat were dlvd to NK to buy him off, by W.
dryfly, the summer leisure travel probably kept many hotels afloat - but if RevPAR is off 20% for the next couple of months, I think we will see many more hotel foreclosures.
Thanks for the info on business travel - I'm not seeing it yet either.
best to all
Iran comes to mind.
With all due respect i think you meant to say; "we will see many more hotel workouts, debt refinancings and even a few foreclosures." The holders of hospitality debt just plain old cannot afford to foreclose on all the eligible properties.
I just wanted to make note to the switch pullers here on CR, the comment section has gone over the top!....great job and well done.
JD,
Clinton bought off Kim also and I wonder when Clinton recently went to NK to pick up the two gals if he dropped off a check as well.
If I was trying to bullshit the American people, a 10,000 Dow looks mighty impressive to folks that only hear "The Dow rocketed over 10,000, as the recession is now over", and you know how we like round numbers?
I guess that I think comparing the two seems odd to me because of scope and scale. Maybe this debate will be less violent because it is so abstract and the parties are spread out as opposed to citizens of just a single city. Also with the use of Medicare & Medicaid, there is some concept of the gov't in practice here were there was no where that had openly accepted gays in the 70s.
_
Dunno, but I would say that she is over her head no matter where it all goes.
Maybe hotel CRE investors will take advantage of the new lever-your-sh!tpile deal from the Treasury:
Commercial-Mortgage Bond Risk Falls on Rule Changes (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
This one looks so embarassingly stupid it doesn't even have an acronym.
C
Sure, Iran is a candidate. Historically, Iran/Persia has controlled big chunks of South Asia/Middle East at different times. I think though that a massive Chinese bubble once they unpeg from the dollar is more likely.
Now, BTW
Counterpointer - the ultimate in moral hazard....screw up royally, we'll let you play calvinball. Just one more reason to firmly entrench the "well, everybody else was doing it, why shouldnt we" rule. IDIOTIC.
Washington State revenue to drop another $238 million over the next two years.
"Maybe hotel CRE investors will take advantage of the new lever-your-sh!tpile deal..."
Does this mean that I won't get the opportunity to buy a hotel with all of those nickels I saved up?
"This one looks so embarassingly stupid it doesn't even have an acronym."
++++++++++++++++
Here to help out...
CRETIN
Commercial Real Estate Treasury Investment Notes
Rob, yes - more extend and pretend for hotels for sure! Why foreclosure, when you can pretend the loan is current. But at these RevPAR numbers, I suspect here are some hotels that will just have trouble making payroll - even with a number of floors closed.
best wishes
"a CRUSHING comparison"
i love it!
Looks like things are lining up for quad witching. 10-year yield is tightening, US futes down, Dow looking fragile, Blackrock talking up the USD, Asia futures flat except where they're bleeding elmo like ASX, which raises some queries for me about metals, commodities and China prospects.
So, pump a rally to end the day and unload a 100m pile tomorrow morning on the open? Or just get on with it at 3:25 anyway?
Citi could easily break the billion trades mark by 3pm anyway.
C
So, the thing about this hotel thing is...I'm not having a lot of luck negotiating discounts. I guess things aren't off so much in the places I want to visit.
Example of what CR is talking about: UPDATE 2-MGM Mirage to sell $350 mln unsecured notes
| Reuters
The company also warned in a regulatory filing on Thursday that it is "reasonably likely" that it will record a third-quarter non-cash impairment charge related to its massive CityCenter project. It said it could not estimate the size of the charge.
When I see this sign @ the Ritz-Carlton, i'll know things have taken a turn for the worse in the hotel biz...
"$999 Weekly, $2999 Monthly"
More FOF goodness (a Bushism) .
Gross private domestic investment has dropped ~$600B since the TARP was passed. Rumor has it, banks are "investing" the TARP money in exisiting paper assets, as they have a higher year end bonus yield.
Thanks CONgress.
Bankers to Main St.: So long and thanks for the TARP! Enjoy your depression and unemployment benefits (while they last).
Angry one, what's the link for the latest FOF?
TIA
"So, the thing about this hotel thing is...I'm not having a lot of luck negotiating discounts. I guess things aren't off so much in the places I want to visit."
i don't think that is the issue, scott. i think hotels are gouging what customers they have to try to recover some of their cost. that is a retarded analysis, i know. but, i stayed at the peabody the last two weekends. rates were lower on weekend 1 when the place was packed, higher on weekend 2 when the place was empty. strangeness, but this is the only fubar'd conclusion i could come up with.
As a point of reference my eldest is getting per person double occupancy room and board at UCLA for more than what per person single single occupancy at an adjacent 4 star with room service would cost. The kicker? The UCLA prices are proposed to rise 30% (thirty percent) next year at latest.
@RockyR - maybe you are right...well, for the moment, I'm not forced to travel - it's purely for pleasure.
MLM - bloomie's running a story on it, sans link through:
Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $2 Trillion (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
C
Time to move her to the hotel then.
Was in DC this week and, even with Congress back in session, the airports and the planes was less crowded than when I was there in July. Maybe it is the effect of not having all the school tours there this time of year. I have to head back next week and it will be interesting to see if it is the same.
MLM,
Caution, beaucoup infuriating data.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/Current/z1.pdf
Another Bushism: Betterness! Gotta love those nouns.
World to America: We Want Our Gold Back
World to America: We Want Our Gold Back | Columns | theTrumpet.com by the Philadelphia Church of God
Dining Room at the Ritz-Carlton phoned last night to let me know that as of October 1, the famed five-star room will close after 25 years of service to Atlanta.
The Dining Room at the Ritz-Carlton Buckhead to close | Table Talk
When the hourly-rates sign goes up at the Ritz-Carlton; that's when you'll know things have truly hit bottom in the hotel business.
As a point of reference my eldest is getting per person double occupancy room and board at UCLA for more than what per person single single occupancy at an adjacent 4 star with room service would cost.
At least per the State Constitution tuition is free.
The Regents have absolutely no idea what's coming. The social contract is at the breaking point.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 11:03 am
reply ignore user
Pavel writes;
"If they existed."
So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again?
GWB misheard turbans when he heard turbines during a security update.
Thus you had his true first utterance of the phrase "this suckers going down"
The social contract is at the breaking point.
Rob Dawg,
The social CONtract is at the breaking point.
Sorry Dawg. I couldn't help myself.
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 2:01 pm
"pavel, it doesn't matter if they exist or not. Ask Hussein."
Is that the name of Schroedinger's cat?
Interesting choice of allusions, considering that the cat could be killed by the decay of a radioactive isotope. Were you planning on it working at that level?
Panel begins inquiry into financial meltdown
Panel begins inquiry into financial meltdown - Yahoo! Finance
After that heads will roll, surely.
sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 2:03 pm
Pavel writes;
"If they existed."
So they are using all of those centrifuges to make what, again?
Enriched Uranium, and that's the problem; it's difficult to differentiate between fuel for a reactor and fuel for a bomb without close oversight, and even then, since they use essentially the same technology for refinement, it's a relatively small step to weapon-ise the fuel.
You do know that TARP funds are fungible.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 11:48 am
The social contract is at the breaking point.
Rob Dawg,
The social CONtract is at the breaking point.
Sorry Dawg. I couldn't help myself.
No problem. Consider it implied whenever I go off like this.
"Wife used Priceline to get $55 a night for us at a place on the Pacific coast where list was $150. The bid was accepted immediately (by the hotel). Not big Priceline users here, so I don't know if the hotel had an order out to accept any bid. It sure seemed desperate "
My wife uses biddingfortravel.com (I think that's the link) to pre-determine what hotels are 'winning' the bids and for how much.
We even pricelined our honeymoon.
One of the hotels we stayed at is now bankrupt.
Dorm were always pricey... I knew a dozen students who did a nine month hotel lease (dedicated floor) to save a few bucks. But the social life wasn't at good as the dorms... so they signed onto the meal plan. They saved a few grand and had maid service included!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Apologies if this was already posted...
S&P Revises Methodology For CDOs
S&P said its new criteria will become "effective immediately for cash-flow CDOs backed by corporate debt and for synthetic CDOs that reference pools of corporate obligations," a move that will trigger downgrades, according to Thomas Gillis, chief credit officer at S&P.
"Our preliminary estimates are that outstanding synthetic CDOs will likely experience an average downgrade of four notches," he said.
I was wondering about manufacturing weekly hours and overtime, here is the simple relation between the 2
The airlines are having their own "rev-par" types of issues - less business travelers overpaying for last minute flights: http://zikkir.com/business/3766?wscr=1600x1200
EHP,
That goes a long way to explaining why CR was noting that "employment" wasn't falling as fast as he expected. Burning off overtime instead.
airlines may be having trouble, but AMR did pretty well in its capital raising activity today. Id say, fantastic timing on that one. Give it two months, the deal wouldnt get done.
OT but totally fascinating:
Jupiter’s Magnetic Moon Generates Spectacular Light Show
Jupiter’s largest moon, Ganymede, is also its only moon with a strong magnetic field. Now, using thousands of images from the Hubble Space Telescope, scientists have discovered that the spectacular auroras seen at Jupiter’s poles are generated in part by the pull of Ganymede’s magnetosphere.
Jupiter’s Magnetic Moon Generates Spectacular Light Show | Wired Science | Wired.com
EvilHenryPaulson (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 2:54 pm
I was wondering about manufacturing weekly hours and overtime, here is the simple relation between the 2
Looks like things still aren't as bad as '82.
yep, and if you draw a trendline across the lows from the beginning of the chart, it seems we're back to normal. See, everythings just fine!
heh I was wondering about the
's cousin as well...
The airlines are having their own "rev-par" types of issues - less business travelers overpaying for last minute flights: http://zikkir.com/business/3766?wscr=1600x1200
I'm no road warrior, I'm only on the road once in a while. However, although the planes I've been on recently are still full, I just booked a flight a few days in advance--which is usually approaching the high fare wall--at a price virtually no different than the fares further out. This has happened a few times recently, with regards to last minute changes, but we seem to be a long ways away from the extra $4-500 I was shelling out in the end of '07 for flight with only a couple of days lead time.
I'm also noticing that my pre-flight seat selection, even a few hours before the flight, shows a large number of empty seats, but the plane is frequently full. I'm wondering how many of those last-minute passengers are high-paying business flyers and how many are discount seats or cheap stand-by customers?
On the other hand, manufacturing is a much smaller component of the economy today than in 1982.
For a comparison that covers the service sector as well, look at the number of part-time workers for economic reasons in Part-Time vs. Slack Work (difference is part-timers don't get health benefits, while regular employees doing slack work do)
Sorry, but I'm betting on the chipmunk in the first round.
If I was running a hotel and seeing only post-Labor Day business travel standing between me and the hangman, I would not be comfortable.
JBR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 3:04 pm
yep, and if you draw a trendline across the lows from the beginning of the chart, it seems we're back to normal. See, everythings just fine! Green Shoots
However, integrating the chart to zero (based on my experimental eyeball integrator) appears to put the nominal at between 8-9%.
So, I'm curious: why will the Regents be particularly affected by the breaking of the social contract...I figured it was the plutocrats who were in for a rude awakening!
"Shack-ups and nooners count to occupancy but the reduced rates for the short-time rentals hits the RevPAR."
Oh, I always thought you had to pay the full day's rate for a nooner. What a dope I am.
Maybe it's time for the Chipmunk Failure Friday (CFF) poll.
Oh, I always thought you had to pay the full day's rate for a nooner. What a dope I am.
Let me tell you, nothing's sexier when sneaking away for a brief noon-time triste than spending 10 minutes haggling with the hotel front desk over how cheap you're going to get the room.
It makes the ladies swoon.
.....and maybe it has and this IS considered the new normal business week!
Yup 3:12 we go Green...dam those computers are spot on...no doubt Linux boxes, windows machines will be late for their own funeral.
I guess I wanted to check and see if things were so tightened in manufacturing that there could be the first inventory led correction since 1982. All of the inventory led recoveries had less than 6% of hours in overtime. The lowest it went this time was 6.6% in March. Add in the fact that inventories are tight if and only if end sales jump over 10% by year end (as production is pre-emptively underway). The Treasury and Federal Reserve will be working over time this holiday season because the last stimulus didn't even keep things presentable for 6-8 months. The 2010 mid-term elections will revolve around stimulus/government employment, regulating basket case industries like finance and airlines, the now popular desire to cut government spending.
They say the first thing that one must do in face of a crisis is psychologically come to terms with the fact that you are in a serious crisis and that crisis is long term--apparently this first stage has yet to set in for many Americans concerning the very real economic crisis.
I suppose many of us will continue to believe that there actually is a recovery and that NBER's definitions actually have a grip on reality.
Hotel's will decline this week and next, and will continue to do so because business travel is not going to pick up; and why should we expect it to when the real economy continues to contract?
The US is facing a credit implosion, and given our debt based economy this can only mean nothing short of a disaster, a disaster in the scale of ~30% GDP contraction when all is said and done. The government can continue to prop the banking world and Wall Street up, and that will in turn spell the doom of the US government as its debt is now well past the upward turn in exponential growth.
Although many of us may joke about the media hype "recovery" and the impact it will have, but the laughing will stop for everyone short of the insane when the economy finally does implode as there will be no one that will escape its effects. Ask yourself: how much do you actually rely on infrastructure? Trash, security, medical, sewage, power, food, water, transportation, employment, etc. A ~30% contraction in GDP with a bankrupt government will disrupt all of these aspects, if not even put a stop to some or all of them in many areas.
Mr. Bernanke may get his asset bubble, but I suspect it will only lasts months, and then will get a much greater implosion on GDP. A debt based economy cannot suffer even slight contractions for a series of quarters without imploding, and the only thing maintaining an utter implosion are impossible to sustain amounts of government spending, and when that runs out: I suggest and hope you are prepared.
It is beginning to slow down where I work. The Great Migration is complete now, the people who winter in Florida are there; families are hunkered down due to finance issues and school being back in session, and business travellers have not appeared in any great numbers.
Of course when I say beginning to slow I am speaking of slowing from an already slimmer than normal number. Now though I think the construction crews that we have had for the past few months will soon be winding up and no longer coming and THAT is going to leave an even bigger mark. The itty bitty teensy green shootz I had noticed at work are getting ready for winter die-off and it is going to be difficult I believe. hahaha, sorry, even more difficult.
PS Get ready for a pig; whenever I post on these hotel threads within 5 minutes a new thread comes up.
@shill
We don't agree about a lot, but...
no doubt Linux boxes, windows machines will be late for their own funeral.
Definitely *nix boxes, not windoze, but my money is on a real OS like Solaris or AIX. Maybe FreeBSD if it's open source.
Breaking .....
Kanye just interupted the Patrick Swayze funeral ceremony to let everyone know Micheal Jacksons was better....
rsj,
Hotel industry?
Looks like
wore himself out stabilizing bucky today.
Hater.
Remember how after 9/11, people that had government jobs seemed so secure, sucking on the Federal/State teat?
Not so much now...
Anyone know how many kids under the age of 18 here in the US?
edit
Kanye just interupted the Patrick Swayze funeral ceremony to let everyone know Micheal Jacksons was betYOU LIE!!!
"The clock is ticking on Operation Chipmunk, which commences at 0800 Friday."
The Ballad of "Felonious Munk"
A chipmunk was driven, by hunger or fear,
To invade the home of a commenter here.
Wily and crafty, he did evade
The cats and the traps
That were carefully laid,
And for days roamed the compound
In total defiance of every device
Invented by Science
For the capturing of rodents,
As if by a hunch,
Quietly plotting
To eat the cat's lunch.
It so drove our friend
To such an extreme,
He devised a plan
Claimed to work like a dream.
Our intrepid inventor planned his attack
Like a well crafted scene
Out of "Caddyshack",
The outcome of which
He claims is a lock,
With time running out
On our poor chipmunk's clock.
For all children under 18, 44 percent were a minority and 22 percent were Hispanic.
Breakdowns: http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/STTable?bm=y&-geo_id=01000US&-qr_name=ACS_2007_3YR_G00_S0101&-ds_name=ACS_2007_3YR_G00
thanks barfly - that was good for some grinz
Note: Still no pig.
Yes EHP, Desk clerk. Been there over a year now so finally have time in each season to compare. It is going to get brutal.
I know yagij, quite frankly I am shocked.
The remake of Red Dawn can't get here soon enough for the doomers.
I'll have extra butter on the popcorn, please.
Mrs. Gnome and I are heading to Italy tomorrow for our first visit.
Any suggestions from the CR Community?
WOLVERINES!!!
You're welcome
thnx, gentlemen.......
Gnome, Have a wonderful time for us all.
HomeGnome - which part you headed to? My favorites were Montalcino and Alba, mostly because of the food and wine. You can go around and taste Brunello one day, and then stop in at Parma on your way north, see if you can find your way to get a parmesan co-op tour, and then head up to piedmont and go castle hopping/wine tasting. Your a bit early for truffle season, but the food in the piedmont region was to die for, even if you Didnt do truffle based stuff.
Northern Umbria.
Eating and drinking for a week is the only plan...
(edit: part of the difference in fares is in Canada the Federal government extracts high rents from airports, while in the US city/country/state/federal governments are more inclined to provide support)
per last night's NBC news, you may want to re-edit "city/country/state/federal governments" to "the traveling public".........
I'm just a poor dumb slob, but the received wisdom ever since commercial air travel began is that your chances of making money in the business are slim to none (Southwest being a bright exception)
So, how is that AA manages to raise a bundle in this environment (did it all come from the drug cartel, since that particular airline has a long history in that area......)?
SF is completely booked out early / mid next week, prices at premium. New York prices are at a premium end of September / beginning of October ....people still paying it seems.
Sorry for being on topic. I'm a misfit and won't comment anymore.