"The market for elk in North America, for example, is very small. However, there are massive processing facilities for elk, reindeer, and other similar animals in Europe..."
Keep in mind though that in Europe, "elk" = what we call "moose."
Most of the increase in net worth was "smoke and mirrors" increases in real estate values - of course, with the cash-out refis, those smoke and mirrors increases have turned into smoke and mirrors credit losses for the banks.
"The market for elk in North America, for example, is very small. However, there are massive processing facilities for elk, reindeer, and other similar animals in Europe..."
"On Dasher, on Dancer, on Prancer and Vixen; On Comet, on Cupid."
The recession hits Santa Claus, who also develops a taste for reindeer meat.
from last thread:
HollywoodHack
I wasn't boomer bashing. The haute couture clientele was dominated by 50-something Wall St wives. That's just a fact. I expected more young women because a 50 year old rich man should have no problem marrying a 30 year old woman. It has to do with both how haute couture was relatively more accessible a few decades ago, thus more likely to bring in new people, and the waves of wealth creation we have seen since WWII. There has been enough money made in tech for that younger group to be well represented there, but I would guess that they are naturally not as interested in it.
...but I would guess that they are naturally not as interested in it.
You are talking about the Tech Culture here. It took billg how many years to finally settle down? Also, I don't recall seeing much eye-candy hanging off of his arms vs. what his crew put into MS Office. Even mixing in S. "The Mac God" Jobs doesn't get you pictures shown on TMZ.
_
I think I get your gist, but rest assured that sometimes money isn't enough to overcome one's looks and social conditioning. (queue any number of Dilbert strips)
"Judges 'created corporations as persons, gave birth to corporations as persons,' she said. 'There could be an argument made that that was the court's error to start with...[imbuing] a creature of state law with human characteristics."
This is the only place I've seen someone comment on Justice Sotomayor's comment from the bench on last week's SCOTUS arguments (where the conservatives majority are likely to award corporations the full, unadultered (and unregulated) rights to free speech - so they can buy the rest of the Congress that they don't already own.
In my perfect world where corporations are viewed as just vehicles for capital raising/investing and not as 'people', corporations would have no rights to intervene in policy setting (contributions, advertising, etc.).
SCOTUS made corps into people (that sure beats walking on water, right?). Religious transformation of the first order.
We need five more Sonia's on the bench after we do the great housecleaning on the lying, thieving financial/political oligopoly. Corps need some serious breaking to the saddle.
"After a bubble, the value of assets decline, but most of the debt remains."
That is a very succinct and interesting observation. It would certainly suggest that creditors like bubbles. The only defense is walking away from the debt, which businesses do all the time but people (usually) try to avoid like the plague.
The problem with young people is they have a future horizon, of like, what, say 3 months.
Being over-educated, under-employed, and buried in debt does that to anyone. I'd like to see Gramps start out nowadays with 100k in student loans, have a new wife that wants to nest in a house that is 6x our combined yearly income, and still be able to worry about 2075 when gas eats up 60 USD/week! /snark
Me thinks someone needs to tradein the wife and keep the car.
We had that discussion a few weeks ago talking about the importance of home ownership is much more important to women than it is to men. The consensus was that women's desire to nest makes renting seem undesirable when it comes to raising children even though buying in this market and employment being tenuous would make it seem like an unwise decision.
_
I'd agree about the Corolla, but some women wouldn't mind and some would. Dating rocks!
All categories of private credit are contracting, most at an increasing rate. Only the rapid rise in government debt is keeping the system from imploding.
Bernanke is literaly dropping money from helicopters to bailout years of Wall St. fraud.
And yet, by early accounts, Wall St. year end bonuses will be huge. Imagine that. Wall St. is going to take huge bonuses as a result of helicopter drops.
The problem is that you can loan all the money you want to banks and the rest of the FIRE sector, and you'll get just what we're getting right now (HFT trading, commodity run ups, bodacious P/E's). Meanwhile, the real economy is bleeding money.
A good analysis of the implications of Treasury's handing bond proceeds over to the Fed. The piece suggests that a good chunk of Treasury issuance recently has been to sterilize Fed actions: that means liquidity provision by the Fed was offset by funds received by Treasury. Therefore net money supply effect is zero.
Essentially propping the banks without funds going to the real economy.
We were having a good gold discussion in previous threads, and I'd like to continue it with this observation. Note I'm not a gold bug, I don't own a scintilla of the stuff. But it's interesting nonetheless.
back from Italy....all I will say is that the amount of complacency in Europe is pretty much the same as it is here. I will say that Como is still full of over-optimistic americans (as always!) and that Milan as a city is so over-rated it's not even funny.
The mad rush to cash in on 'depressed' property values in northern italy is as bad as it is here. The Italian gov't has done a much better job feeding the BS to it's people than we have. But alot of that is the Italian attitude of sono. .you italiano non sono… io non mi preoccupo...
or I'm Italian..you are not...I don't care.
I speak a little italian but even if I was fluent it would have made no difference....it's just like Paris.
Having said that the GP of Italy was a fabulous experience that should be done once (if you are automotively inclined) but understand that the world will be a far different place in a year's time.
thanks. it'll probably follow the trend (almost) everywhere else. slight uptick in corporate income. miserable decrease in witholding and personal income tax, and a 8-10% decrease in sales tax, even with C4C.
Serious question: why is an unrealized paper gain referred to as "net worth". Net after what? Isn't it gross, since most of it is debt fueled? Wouldn't net be home equity net of debt by NPV?
Note: approximately 31% of households do not have a mortgage. So the 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 43% equity.
I would love to see the quintiles for homeowners. Guessing:
0-20% 100% equity (by definition)
21-40% 90% equity. Over half are by definition 100%, the rest close to payoff.
41-60% 30%
61-80% 0%
81-100% negative equity, say -20%.
Okay let's do the math on the guesses. 0.2+0.18+0.06+0-0.04=0.4 or 40% gross unweighted equity.
CR reports: "Household percent equity (of household real estate) was up to 43% from the all time low last quarter of 41.9%. "
Those quintiles should scare you far more than the aggregated totals.
MLM, I'm seeing the Mortgage Pig in graph after graph too ...
Take a name, I think house prices will fall as a percent of GDP for some time (the long tail at the end of a bubble), but that doesn't mean nominal prices will fall that much more (although I think they will decline more, especially in mid-to-high priced areas)
Rob, I wish we had that breakdown, although we know from the CoreLogic data that about 15 million homeowners are underwater ...
one other thing....you all recall the bond thing that supposedly happened in Chiasso. Well I can certainly add that the these people who were purported to be caught by the financial police must have been the dumbest people on earth. I heard a great "stag" party story where the groom to be was liquored up and then taken to lugano...deposited in a hotel room with no phone, cash or clothes and a hooker was paid to be there when he woke up. He was transported through the chiasso crossing while passed out and the 'authority's' asked virtually no questions.
I know it wasn't, despite the obvious conclusions. But you'll get there, EHP. The boomers really have left almost nothing behind in every way, including the opportunities to make that kind of wealth outside of a few sports and entertainment types.
Keep in mind though that in Europe, "elk" = what we call "moose."
Sorry I missed this. These were actually Canadian elk they were interested in, for further processing in Europe. In North America they're very much a niche breed, only a few guys farm them. But these Europeans wanted hundreds of container-fulls of the stuff.
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:06 am
Rob, I wish we had that breakdown, although we know from the CoreLogic data that about 15 million homeowners are underwater ...
best wishes
I think we do have those numbers. 15 million is approximately a quintile of 80 million homeowners. Very rough, very dirty but they "feel" right.
My point was that right now there are 15 million ruthless potentials who would undoubtably take out another 15 million while the 40% 30 million observed with almost no impact to their present situation just their future.
Gold has consistently returned around 8% since BW in '72 if you ignore the very considerable noise (currently much higher, in '02 much lower). You should always use loooooooooooooong MAs when discussing commodities.
Glad to help introduce you to this whole money thing.
Putting all of your retirement money in gold in 1920 would have meant you'd have been unable to retire in 1967. Maybe I won't become a gold bug.
Dead Horse meets Buggy Whip time.
_
If you invested that year of income in the market in 1920, chances were good that you would have lost it all by 1939. If you didn't lose a dime through BK but through collapsing share value, you wouldn't break even--sans inflation--until the mid/late 50s. In short, what the bloody heck could have you invested in besides Treasuries in 1920 and hope to retire on in 1967 besides a pension or SS, eh?
_
I know the gold bugs v. gold haters is like vi v. Emacs or Red v. Blue, but that was one silly data point to try to nail that coffin shut.
"Will my local grocery store accept gold? Will the local gas station? etc... "
If Ben keeps rates too low, for too long, that may be the only thing they will accept as that is what you would have to pay the local warlord/street gang in. But where are the cops? Well they'll want gold too.
teabagger (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:11 am
reply ignore user
20 years from now, when SS and Medicare are means tested, would you rather have $100K in physical gold or $100K in CDs?
I say straddle the fence and put the 100k into a gold ETF.
That way you get faux money and faux gold all rolled into one.
Yes, that looks correct. On most charts, while we live far removed from the historical norm I'm assuming we're still in bubble economy/society mode. Any 07-08 time period is just a hiccup before the next binge.
I thought we agreed not to discuss the important religious issues.
There isn't anything to discuss. vi is the way. /snark
_
Edit: wq!
You are just lucky hoocoodanode doesn't parse apl.
I know the gold bugs v. gold haters is like vi v. Emacs or Red v. Blue, but that was one silly data point to try to nail that coffin shut.
Oh I don't deny it was a silly data point; I was only wondering the simple question: if I put my savings into gold at various times throughout the past, how would it have done? Had I gone back to 1900 even less gold could have been purchased.
Forgive me about the horrible faux pas by forgetting FDR's gold heist; this whole gold confiscation idea is a little foreign to me.
What I'm hearing from everyone is that the market in 1920 would have been a horrible place to store your money because of the resulting crash. Gold did terribly due to the fact that the government felt threatened by it and confiscated it. Maybe treasuries would have been better throughout that period, but it was a difficult investment environment for everyone.
I'm just trying to learn from the past to see if anything applies to the future.
that'd be a great reality show: unemployed in various age groups, seaching for jobs - and don't forget the 70 yr olds looking for walmart cleaning jobs.
Hello old friend! I always wonder when looking at these charts so far off historical ranges whether or not prices for finite assets (gold, land, oil) increase as population increases and create upward pressure on "total household net worth as a % of GDP", or is our new situation not the norm and thus a dangerous global experiment.
vi is like unregulated HFT. Fast, efficient and liable to occasional blowups.
eMacs is robust and thus carries the weights of redundancy and transparency.
vi is like unregulated HFT. Fast, efficient and liable to occasional blowups.
eMacs is robust and thus carries the weights of redundancy and transparency.
Well that is pretty impressive. I wonder how it holds up if the Yen and Euro keep letting the dollar slide? How high can Ben raise rates to fight inflation, without breaking the banks?
Of course. But anything that taxes serfs and canonises tax loopholes that benefit our corrupt congress people and banksters is a good idea. Just like giving $8K to first time home buyers so they can join the ranks of people sweating over unemployment and falling house prices for the next few years. Excellent planning. I can see why these people run the country now.
Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc., continues to sell stock in the luxury home builder.
Mr. Toll, 68 years old, sold 1.58 million shares Wednesday, according to a securities filing by Toll Brothers Thursday. That included 452,182 shares acquired through stock options due to expire in December...............
Toll Brothers last month reported a loss of $472.3 million for its fiscal third quarter ended July 31, largely reflecting write downs of asset values. At that time, Mr. Toll told analysts in a conference call that stronger housing demand in recent months "makes us feel a whole lot better."
Private Savings = +$914B (includes personal savings)
Government (dis)Savings = -$1306
Total Savings = -$392B
The personal savings number is a sham too if you use a cash basis (BEA tables).
And in reality, the numbers are far worse as unfunded liabilities are NOT accounted for. Same with unfunded private pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB).
Americans have been ripped off by Wall St. and Corporate insiders.
Private Savings = +$914B (includes personal savings)
Government (dis)Savings = -$1306
Total Savings = -$392B
The personal savings number is a sham too if you use a cash basis (BEA tables).
And in reality, the numbers are far worse as unfunded liabilities are NOT accounted for. Same with unfunded private pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB).
Americans have been ripped off by Wall St. and Corporate insiders.
That graph looks like it's got mortgage pig hiding under it? Are mortgage pig and dot.com pig the same? Has anyone ever seen them in the same room together?
That's a scary equity stat. So 31% of homeowners have 100% equity, so does that mean the other 8%, plus or minus, gets divvied up by the 69% of mortgaged homes (assuming nonmortgaged homes have roughly the same value as mortgaged ones)? Of course that 8% is a net of folks with positive and negative equity, but I would love to see a chart of how that all breaks down.
how much is my household nest worth?
oddly enough, that's just about the amount the nyfed balance sheet should hit before they pause for a breather before the mid-term elections
This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc)
If it's under a mattress, does it count as deposit?
"The market for elk in North America, for example, is very small. However, there are massive processing facilities for elk, reindeer, and other similar animals in Europe..."
Keep in mind though that in Europe, "elk" = what we call "moose."
Most of the increase in net worth was "smoke and mirrors" increases in real estate values - of course, with the cash-out refis, those smoke and mirrors increases have turned into smoke and mirrors credit losses for the banks.
Pigged from last thread... and actually pretty much on topic w/ this thread...
We Need MORE Debt, Says Ken Fisher
Make sure to have your air sickness bag handy when you watch the vid...
Hirsch == Elk
OT:
What's the value of a 1964 nickel?
that's a good one. you don't see Ni very often in commodity trades.
The Black Banker declares, "'tis but a flesh wound!"
And that shows the lack of discipline of bubble participants.
mal (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 11:29 am
"The market for elk in North America, for example, is very small. However, there are massive processing facilities for elk, reindeer, and other similar animals in Europe..."
"On Dasher, on Dancer, on Prancer and Vixen; On Comet, on Cupid."
The recession hits Santa Claus, who also develops a taste for reindeer meat.
Coinflation says... $0.0456203 (91.24%)
or better yet, 'bring me a bucket'
from last thread:
HollywoodHack
I wasn't boomer bashing. The haute couture clientele was dominated by 50-something Wall St wives. That's just a fact. I expected more young women because a 50 year old rich man should have no problem marrying a 30 year old woman. It has to do with both how haute couture was relatively more accessible a few decades ago, thus more likely to bring in new people, and the waves of wealth creation we have seen since WWII. There has been enough money made in tech for that younger group to be well represented there, but I would guess that they are naturally not as interested in it.
For all you older people that see problems in young people these days, I offer you
The Problem with Young People – Trading Cards
$12.2 Trillion
Say it five times really fast.
Those two peaks on the first graph look suspiciously like pig ears
But I'm starting to see pig ears wherever I look...
gawd. with such simplistic economic reasoning, ken fisher should probably be teaching at some MBA program.
You are talking about the Tech Culture here. It took billg how many years to finally settle down? Also, I don't recall seeing much eye-candy hanging off of his arms vs. what his crew put into MS Office. Even mixing in S. "The Mac God" Jobs doesn't get you pictures shown on TMZ.
_
I think I get your gist, but rest assured that sometimes money isn't enough to overcome one's looks and social conditioning. (queue any number of Dilbert strips)
Who needs net worth when you can have debt?
Seriously, equity has been/will be punished and debt you can just walk away with a slap on the wrist.
The Irresponsible will be bailed out repeatedly at the expense of the Responsible.
quote from prev. thread:
"Judges 'created corporations as persons, gave birth to corporations as persons,' she said. 'There could be an argument made that that was the court's error to start with...[imbuing] a creature of state law with human characteristics."
This is the only place I've seen someone comment on Justice Sotomayor's comment from the bench on last week's SCOTUS arguments (where the conservatives majority are likely to award corporations the full, unadultered (and unregulated) rights to free speech - so they can buy the rest of the Congress that they don't already own.
In my perfect world where corporations are viewed as just vehicles for capital raising/investing and not as 'people', corporations would have no rights to intervene in policy setting (contributions, advertising, etc.).
SCOTUS made corps into people (that sure beats walking on water, right?). Religious transformation of the first order.
We need five more Sonia's on the bench after we do the great housecleaning on the lying, thieving financial/political oligopoly. Corps need some serious breaking to the saddle.
/temporary end of rant
Where do they get the increase in household value from? OFHEO?
Ya but Market Watch said:
Household net worth rises first time in two years
"Keep in mind though that in Europe, "elk" = what we call "moose.""
los
The problem with young people is they have a future horizon, of like, what, say 3 months.
Who needs net worth when you can have debt?
In the link above Ken Fisher speaks to you... he refers to our current malaise as 'under indebtedness'. Now excuse me while I go rinse out my mouth...
"After a bubble, the value of assets decline, but most of the debt remains."
That is a very succinct and interesting observation. It would certainly suggest that creditors like bubbles. The only defense is walking away from the debt, which businesses do all the time but people (usually) try to avoid like the plague.
Being over-educated, under-employed, and buried in debt does that to anyone. I'd like to see Gramps start out nowadays with 100k in student loans, have a new wife that wants to nest in a house that is 6x our combined yearly income, and still be able to worry about 2075 when gas eats up 60 USD/week! /snark
a new wife that wants to nest in a house that is 6x our combined yearly income, and thinks a used '99 Corolla is a scarlett letter to bear!
Me thinks someone needs to tradein the wife and keep the car.
Sort of like cash for losers.
We had that discussion a few weeks ago talking about the importance of home ownership is much more important to women than it is to men. The consensus was that women's desire to nest makes renting seem undesirable when it comes to raising children even though buying in this market and employment being tenuous would make it seem like an unwise decision.
_
I'd agree about the Corolla, but some women wouldn't mind and some would. Dating rocks!
The flow of funds is fugly.
All categories of private credit are contracting, most at an increasing rate. Only the rapid rise in government debt is keeping the system from imploding.
Bernanke is literaly dropping money from helicopters to bailout years of Wall St. fraud.
And yet, by early accounts, Wall St. year end bonuses will be huge. Imagine that. Wall St. is going to take huge bonuses as a result of helicopter drops.
We have too much non-economic debt.
boys should be willing to give up their need for things that go varoom in return for the girls taking the anti-nesting pill.
And this is what will rein in consumer spending for a long time to come...
Fed like a hole
Bow down before the Fed Reserve
You're going to get what you deserve
Bow down before the Fed Reserve
You're going to get what you deserve
Fed like a hole
Black as your soul
I'd rather die than give you control
YouTube - Nine Inch Nails - Head Like A Hole
The market for elk in North America, for example, is very small.
While living in Montana in the 70's, Elk was the major meat we ate. Yum!
Mr Slippery: Now that is inspired!
The problem is that you can loan all the money you want to banks and the rest of the FIRE sector, and you'll get just what we're getting right now (HFT trading, commodity run ups, bodacious P/E's). Meanwhile, the real economy is bleeding money.
For some reason I've got the Zep song, "The Song Remains the Same" running through my head. Except Debt has been substituted for Song.
Funding the Fed: Rolling Back the Treasury Supplementary Financing Program
A good analysis of the implications of Treasury's handing bond proceeds over to the Fed. The piece suggests that a good chunk of Treasury issuance recently has been to sterilize Fed actions: that means liquidity provision by the Fed was offset by funds received by Treasury. Therefore net money supply effect is zero.
Essentially propping the banks without funds going to the real economy.
It was never worth it and is now finding the real worth through price discovery! It ain't over either!
We were having a good gold discussion in previous threads, and I'd like to continue it with this observation. Note I'm not a gold bug, I don't own a scintilla of the stuff. But it's interesting nonetheless.
Median family income in 1967: $33,338
Price of gold per ounce in 1967: $34.95
Number of ounces of gold family income could purchase: 953
Median family income in 2003: $43,318
Price of gold per ounce in 2003: 363.38
Number of ounces of gold family income could purchase: 119
Income of 2003 family if receiving the same number of gold bars (953x363.38): $346301.14
Maybe I will become a gold bug after all
Asset bubbles.....the neutron bombs of economics.
CR Headline: Fed: Household Net Worth Off $12.2 Trillion From Peak
Bloomberg Headline: Household Worth in U.S. Rose by $2 Trillion in Second Quarter
Basel Too,
State of Washington gets their revenue forecast updates today
back from Italy....all I will say is that the amount of complacency in Europe is pretty much the same as it is here. I will say that Como is still full of over-optimistic americans (as always!) and that Milan as a city is so over-rated it's not even funny.
The mad rush to cash in on 'depressed' property values in northern italy is as bad as it is here. The Italian gov't has done a much better job feeding the BS to it's people than we have. But alot of that is the Italian attitude of sono. .you italiano non sono… io non mi preoccupo...
or I'm Italian..you are not...I don't care.
I speak a little italian but even if I was fluent it would have made no difference....it's just like Paris.
Having said that the GP of Italy was a fabulous experience that should be done once (if you are automotively inclined) but understand that the world will be a far different place in a year's time.
Ciao
MS
thanks. it'll probably follow the trend (almost) everywhere else. slight uptick in corporate income. miserable decrease in witholding and personal income tax, and a 8-10% decrease in sales tax, even with C4C.
looks as if house prices are down only halfway to their final resting place
Serious question: why is an unrealized paper gain referred to as "net worth". Net after what? Isn't it gross, since most of it is debt fueled? Wouldn't net be home equity net of debt by NPV?
C
I would love to see the quintiles for homeowners. Guessing:
0-20% 100% equity (by definition)
21-40% 90% equity. Over half are by definition 100%, the rest close to payoff.
41-60% 30%
61-80% 0%
81-100% negative equity, say -20%.
Okay let's do the math on the guesses. 0.2+0.18+0.06+0-0.04=0.4 or 40% gross unweighted equity.
CR reports: "Household percent equity (of household real estate) was up to 43% from the all time low last quarter of 41.9%. "
Those quintiles should scare you far more than the aggregated totals.
N.b. Bold is typo edit correction
deleted...
MLM, I'm seeing the Mortgage Pig in graph after graph too ...
Take a name, I think house prices will fall as a percent of GDP for some time (the long tail at the end of a bubble), but that doesn't mean nominal prices will fall that much more (although I think they will decline more, especially in mid-to-high priced areas)
Rob, I wish we had that breakdown, although we know from the CoreLogic data that about 15 million homeowners are underwater ...
best wishes
I found some older numbers to contrast to.
Average income in 1920: $1407
Price of gold per ounce in 1920: $20.68
Number of ounces of gold family income could purchase: 68
Value of 68 gold bars in 1967: $2376, or 7.1% of your yearly pay.
Putting all of your retirement money in gold in 1920 would have meant you'd have been unable to retire in 1967. Maybe I won't become a gold bug.
one other thing....you all recall the bond thing that supposedly happened in Chiasso. Well I can certainly add that the these people who were purported to be caught by the financial police must have been the dumbest people on earth. I heard a great "stag" party story where the groom to be was liquored up and then taken to lugano...deposited in a hotel room with no phone, cash or clothes and a hooker was paid to be there when he woke up. He was transported through the chiasso crossing while passed out and the 'authority's' asked virtually no questions.
These were his friends too.
Ciao
MS
No personal income tax in Washington State.
I know it wasn't, despite the obvious conclusions. But you'll get there, EHP. The boomers really have left almost nothing behind in every way, including the opportunities to make that kind of wealth outside of a few sports and entertainment types.
Noob, try to get the basics right.
in 1967, Americans couldn't own gold.
Rob Dawg,
Equity
The fabled First American CoreLogic 2006 data
CoreLogic breaks it down by city
More recent Freddie Mac
A look at First Fed delinquencies
h/t to CalculatedRisk
Keep in mind though that in Europe, "elk" = what we call "moose."
Sorry I missed this. These were actually Canadian elk they were interested in, for further processing in Europe. In North America they're very much a niche breed, only a few guys farm them. But these Europeans wanted hundreds of container-fulls of the stuff.
20 years from now, when SS and Medicare are means tested, would you rather have $100K in physical gold or $100K in CDs?
Owning gold bullion wasn't legal in the 60's. In theory you could buy 900 and some odd ounces of gold on the average annual family income in 1967.
In reality, you couldn't buy any.
Noob, try to get the basics right.
in 1967, Americans couldn't own gold.
Forgive me, I'm new to this whole shiny metal thing.
Owning gold bullion wasn't legal in the 60's. In theory you could buy 900 and some odd ounces of gold on the average annual family income in 1967.
Wasn't legal in the USA? Or wasn't legal anywhere?
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:06 am
Rob, I wish we had that breakdown, although we know from the CoreLogic data that about 15 million homeowners are underwater ...
best wishes
I think we do have those numbers. 15 million is approximately a quintile of 80 million homeowners. Very rough, very dirty but they "feel" right.
My point was that right now there are 15 million ruthless potentials who would undoubtably take out another 15 million while the 40% 30 million observed with almost no impact to their present situation just their future.
Humor break: Piggy
Gold has consistently returned around 8% since BW in '72 if you ignore the very considerable noise (currently much higher, in '02 much lower). You should always use loooooooooooooong MAs when discussing commodities.
Glad to help introduce you to this whole money thing.
"would you rather have $100K in physical gold or $100K in CDs? "
Will my local grocery store accept gold? Will the local gas station? etc...
and your local high school cafeteria wants one of those punchcards, not cash. are those punchcards money?
Dead Horse meets Buggy Whip time.
_
If you invested that year of income in the market in 1920, chances were good that you would have lost it all by 1939. If you didn't lose a dime through BK but through collapsing share value, you wouldn't break even--sans inflation--until the mid/late 50s. In short, what the bloody heck could have you invested in besides Treasuries in 1920 and hope to retire on in 1967 besides a pension or SS, eh?
_
I know the gold bugs v. gold haters is like vi v. Emacs or Red v. Blue, but that was one silly data point to try to nail that coffin shut.
Shouldn't it look like this?
http://img.skitch.com/20090917-pe43e1cseuwikmud3ne8i4nc68.jpg
I modified the image to continue the trend I see. If not, why not?
Moose meat is nice but horse meat is even better
it would have been seized in 1933 anyway. basic stuff, guys.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:15 am
... vi v. Emacs ...
I thought we agreed not to discuss the important religious issues.
well, you can convert it to cash at a nice premium over spot on ebay or craigs list. (and my business would accept gold [if anyone was buying]).
"Will my local grocery store accept gold? Will the local gas station? etc... "
If Ben keeps rates too low, for too long, that may be the only thing they will accept as that is what you would have to pay the local warlord/street gang in. But where are the cops? Well they'll want gold too.
There isn't anything to discuss. vi is the way. /snark
_
Edit: wq!
teabagger (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:11 am
reply ignore user
20 years from now, when SS and Medicare are means tested, would you rather have $100K in physical gold or $100K in CDs?
I say straddle the fence and put the 100k into a gold ETF.
That way you get faux money and faux gold all rolled into one.
What would you rather have, a $20 solar-powered communication device charger that will last 100 years or a pound of glod buried in your yard.
"Will my local grocery store accept gold? Will the local gas station? etc... "
They currently except "Bankster Card" No need for gold or money!
the government will know about your ETF ... NO SS FOR YOU!!! (with apologies to the soup nazi)
LOL!!!
Yes, that looks correct. On most charts, while we live far removed from the historical norm I'm assuming we're still in bubble economy/society mode. Any 07-08 time period is just a hiccup before the next binge.
yagij (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:21 am
I thought we agreed not to discuss the important religious issues.
There isn't anything to discuss. vi is the way. /snark
_
Edit: wq!
You are just lucky hoocoodanode doesn't parse apl.
i'd rather have the $16,000 in gold, thank you very much ...
Of course Net worth is up....they need to tax it.
So were at 1980s households wealth values?
We have millions, probably 30-50 million more households now than in 1980.
Everyone is poorer.
Gold good or bad = yawn
Republicans versus Democrats = yawn
we've been over these issues roughly 1 million times on CR.
How about mrs important issues like who's going to win American Idle?
I thought we agreed not to discuss the important religious issues.
There isn't anything to discuss. vi is the way. /snark
_
Edit: wq!
You are just lucky hoocoodanode doesn't parse apl.
sudo vi
:!q
vi rocks
I know the gold bugs v. gold haters is like vi v. Emacs or Red v. Blue, but that was one silly data point to try to nail that coffin shut.
Oh I don't deny it was a silly data point; I was only wondering the simple question: if I put my savings into gold at various times throughout the past, how would it have done? Had I gone back to 1900 even less gold could have been purchased.
Forgive me about the horrible faux pas by forgetting FDR's gold heist; this whole gold confiscation idea is a little foreign to me.
What I'm hearing from everyone is that the market in 1920 would have been a horrible place to store your money because of the resulting crash. Gold did terribly due to the fact that the government felt threatened by it and confiscated it. Maybe treasuries would have been better throughout that period, but it was a difficult investment environment for everyone.
I'm just trying to learn from the past to see if anything applies to the future.
"Of course Net worth is up....they need to tax it. "
It that not why I keep hearing about VAT when I see a congress critter on CNBC or CNN? To tax you when you earn it, AND when you spend it?
who's going to win American Idle
that'd be a great reality show: unemployed in various age groups, seaching for jobs - and don't forget the 70 yr olds looking for walmart cleaning jobs.
You should always use loooooooooooooong MAs when discussing commodities.
Well then it seems kind of uuuuuuuuuuuuseless if you're trying to use it as a store of vaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalue.
Hello old friend! I always wonder when looking at these charts so far off historical ranges whether or not prices for finite assets (gold, land, oil) increase as population increases and create upward pressure on "total household net worth as a % of GDP", or is our new situation not the norm and thus a dangerous global experiment.
poic (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:29 am
vi rocks
Even Saint Linus of Torvalds uses micro eMacs.
vi is like unregulated HFT. Fast, efficient and liable to occasional blowups.
eMacs is robust and thus carries the weights of redundancy and transparency.
"They currently except "Bankster Card" No need for gold or money! "
Now introducting the new Citi Banksta Card - "you buy and we bail you out." or Amex Bailout Ultima - "Little people pay".
vi is like unregulated HFT. Fast, efficient and liable to occasional blowups.
eMacs is robust and thus carries the weights of redundancy and transparency.
Screw you all, I use notepad.
"Little people pay".
LOL - can I getz one with a cute lolcat on da front?
http://dshort.com/charts/bears/road-to-recovery-large.gif
Well that is pretty impressive. I wonder how it holds up if the Yen and Euro keep letting the dollar slide? How high can Ben raise rates to fight inflation, without breaking the banks?
Of course. But anything that taxes serfs and canonises tax loopholes that benefit our corrupt congress people and banksters is a good idea. Just like giving $8K to first time home buyers so they can join the ranks of people sweating over unemployment and falling house prices for the next few years. Excellent planning. I can see why these people run the country now.
More Fisher... this guy is really making the rounds this week...
It's a V-Shaped Rally and It's Only Half-Way Done, Fisher Says
That is an oxymoron. Using "micro" to describe any branch of eMacs is like using the word "balanced" to describe a CA budget...
Robert Toll, chairman and chief executive officer of Toll Brothers Inc., continues to sell stock in the luxury home builder.
Mr. Toll, 68 years old, sold 1.58 million shares Wednesday, according to a securities filing by Toll Brothers Thursday. That included 452,182 shares acquired through stock options due to expire in December...............
Toll Brothers last month reported a loss of $472.3 million for its fiscal third quarter ended July 31, largely reflecting write downs of asset values. At that time, Mr. Toll told analysts in a conference call that stronger housing demand in recent months "makes us feel a whole lot better."
Toll CEO Sells More Stock in Luxury Home Builder - WSJ.com
Ah, but you can't have $16,000, you can only have the pound of glod.
If the question allowed $, the answer would be however many FDR decided to give you.
The "savings" myth.
Per Q2, 2009 FOF:
Personal savings = +$545B
Private Savings = +$914B (includes personal savings)
Government (dis)Savings = -$1306
Total Savings = -$392B
The personal savings number is a sham too if you use a cash basis (BEA tables).
And in reality, the numbers are far worse as unfunded liabilities are NOT accounted for. Same with unfunded private pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB).
Americans have been ripped off by Wall St. and Corporate insiders.
We need the prompt passage of Clawback laws.
The "savings" myth.
Per Q2, 2009 FOF:
Personal savings = +$545B
Private Savings = +$914B (includes personal savings)
Government (dis)Savings = -$1306
Total Savings = -$392B
The personal savings number is a sham too if you use a cash basis (BEA tables).
And in reality, the numbers are far worse as unfunded liabilities are NOT accounted for. Same with unfunded private pension and Other Post Employment Benefits (OPEB).
Americans have been ripped off by Wall St. and Corporate insiders.
We need the prompt passage of Clawback laws.
That graph looks like it's got mortgage pig hiding under it? Are mortgage pig and dot.com pig the same? Has anyone ever seen them in the same room together?
That's a scary equity stat. So 31% of homeowners have 100% equity, so does that mean the other 8%, plus or minus, gets divvied up by the 69% of mortgaged homes (assuming nonmortgaged homes have roughly the same value as mortgaged ones)? Of course that 8% is a net of folks with positive and negative equity, but I would love to see a chart of how that all breaks down.
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/17/2009 - 10:10 am
Noob, try to get the basics right.
in 1967, Americans couldn't own gold.
++++++++++++++++++
Correction, oh book-smart one...
Americans could freely own any coins dated before 1933, from the late 30's until 1975, and since them, you can own it in any form you'd like.
Added to this is the fact that the top 1% are grabbing a bigger proportion of that shrinking pie.