..the players are assembling, final touches on the make-up, throats being cleared...
If this performance is anything like a Noh performance, I better get settled in early, be prepared to be there all day, and know that I won't understand any of it.
At least the instrumentals and vocals are enjoyable...
I was thinking about buying my first house, but then I realized the tax credit is inflating the price of all starter homes by around $40k. ($8k credit times 4:1 typical leverage, assuming a 20% down payment.)
I read the info and with the way that the system has been so effed with intervention, how can I believe any of the numbers used?
Akin to having an altimeter that says 10000 feet but it really looks like 3000 feet, so what the hell. Let's go with the looks and screw the altimeter.
"recipients would have to show they were part of another household"
CR, I know you are trying to help, in the way that economists try, but checking that little fact creates a loophole that a fleet of trucks can drive through. Once again, those who lie and cheat and steal will get the best deal. We've had enough of that.
Nemo is exactly right. This just inflates home prices for everyone (which is what it is really intended to do), and by a lot more than the tax credit. When you factor in all the buyers' reactions to higher prices, the benefit of the tax credit is further reduced.
Zandi (at Moody's) is little more than a mouthpiece for the NAR / banks, and everyone else who bought into the bubble, and he wants more and more bailouts in order to be proven right. He has no credibility.
"An incentive for new household formation (for people that were part of another household for the last year or two) would be much less expensive, would be more targeted (recipients would have to show they were part of another household) and would reduce the excess inventory of all housing units. "
What, offer a tax credit for first and last month's rent? Rental assistance? I'm not being entirely facetious.
Mark Zandi can't be taken seriously anymore. I used to have some respect for him, not anymore. He is a pig eating at the trough, as are most people anyway closely related to the housing and mortgage industry. It is pretty disgusting the stuff I hear and see everyday. Most people in the industry are more than happy sucking from the government teat.
For a totally OT post, this is a sign of recovery, isn't it?
There's no question Bernanke and Bernanke-ism is becoming a combination of a national joke and a lightning rod of anger and frustration. Govt. handouts and dependence just leads to more of the same. It's already becoming part of the national fabric, the way people plan, think and make decisions.
Bernanke used to posture about the importance of sound fiscal policy, government restraint, etc. Now, he doesn't even bother.
Most of my debt belongs to TBTF, but I still plan on paying it off asap. I just question the sanity of that with all I see around me, including a convo I had with someone today who I never would have expected to be in the category of "receiving calls all day long" for debt without the cash to pay obligations.
Why even bother calling it a loan? VA's budget problems are as well known as CA's problems, and their ability to repay any Federal loan is just political theater. Why not ask for some TARP money? It worked for the auto guys.
Better yet, why is the Gov'r even asking? Are the congresscritters of VA not having their phones blow up daily about unemployed folks and their plights?
Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research called the credit “a questionable redistributive policy” from renters to home buyers, but said that he used it himself when he bought a house.
He wrote on his blog: “Thank you very much, suckers!”
I was, and remain, a huge Baker fan. I was, and remain, a renter, too. Rents even here in Denver, where we had very little housing bubble, still sit measurably below comparable monthly nuts for ownership, and they're currently declining.
I feel terrible saying this, particularly because he's been a champion for honesty in the press and good treatment for the impoverished, but here's one sucker hoping that that fcker eats his words this time due to further drops in housing prices. This country does not need more grossly unfair redistributive policies that only harm the poor and middle class -- disproportionately renters -- further.
Math is hard! So if 2m extra buyers of whom 350k were additional, cost $15b, and only one in 6 needed the incentive, 5 in 6 didn't, which means the gov spent $12.45b getting 350k purchases which in themselves cost $2.55b or so of public money.
$12.45b went on stuff that would have been bought anyway at a price higher than it should have been?
This is an isolated incidence of gross stupidity, surely?
In most areas are we even talking apples to apples comparisons between rents and owning? This ain't Europe after all. There are ridiculously few protections for renters here.
Well, I think many of us a little ticked at yet more (of our) money going to the wrong place. And even the arguments that all that money is doing more good than harm, because it's keeping more people at work, are looking threadbare. After all, we could just give more money to unemployed people, or engage them to clean our streets and fix up our parks and all sorts of really useful things. But no, we've decided that throwing tens of thousands of dollars at buyers of homes is a better way to reduce unemployment. Who are they trying to fool? Do they think we are all utter morons?
But we all know that the deal is done, the fix is in, and the tax credit will be continued, after a short pause, and it may well be expanded. Where's my blood pressure medication again?
Jason Jones is @ the Az Capital building, which Az wants somebody to buy for $735 Million and lease it back to them, because they are desperate for money, and this Az Senator tells him that the state needs the money urgently this year, and Jason Jones says, "yeah, but what building are you going to sell next year?"
I am particularly annoyed at the moment because I just signed off on my 2008 tax returns today. Six figures down the tube at an effective rate of about 42% state and federal. Not counting sales, property, and other taxes.
"Look. This isn't about more homeowners. This is and always has been about more recoverable debt."
I respect your perspicacity, RD, but I disagree with you here. Certainly bailing out the lenders and lending institutions is a very large motive for the PTB, but there are tens of millions of homeowners, maybe as many as a hundred million households, who are counting on holding onto the gains from prior home price appreciation to bail them out from a lifetime of saving very little. And they vote. And that does matter to Congressmen, along with the big checks from the big investors.
Maybe I should put it another way, so like the gov spent $12.45b when it didn't need to, during a time of fiscal crisis, rocketing national debt, and a market for sovereign paper that is characterized by neither friends nor deep pockets any more?
And those thusly incentivized into buying a house, when they would not otherwise have done so, bought at a higher price, from many of the same lenders who crashed the industry in the first place, and who may yet have difficulty meeting payments due to issues with other credit obligations, rising structural costs in the household balance sheet, newly aggressive local fiscal authorities and a declining labour market?
"Reward the low leverage investors. Despite what a lot of people with $ involved tell you, what you really need are low leverage buyers. "
I agree 100%. But I can tell you, that is not the thought process in the "lending" industry. The mortgage "lenders" are lenders in name only - they are basically brokering loans for the government. And they want access to high LTV options like the FHA, in order to keep their mortgage pipelines full.
When it comes to loans they keep on their balance sheets? Minimum 30% downpayment.
all sorts of really useful things. But no, we've decided that throwing tens of thousands of dollars at buyers of homes is a better way to reduce unemployment. Who are they trying to fool? Do they think we are all utter morons?
Why wouldn't they. What has 95% of the population done to disprove this? The CR community is not at all reflective of the general population. Most people want and need to be lied to as the personal effort to deal with reality is too much.
Lewis filched on Bernanke, Summers, Paulson, and Geithner, so I think there's a pretty high probability that he really will be indicted. Bear Stearns refused to play ball on LTCM. The financial world is vindictive and petty.
Have 20% matching for principal paydowns. Pay down $10,000, and the Federal Govt will pay another $2000 to reduce your loan. If you pay it off, get the 20% in cash. You want to pull leverage out of the system fast? OK, so it would primarily be the good credit risks paying off these loans, but there are a lot of people with good credit and an underwater house. The hard part here might be making sure there isn't some indirect way to game this and do a refi for the original amount.
I went to the store today to buy some brains, and I saw Democrat brains @ $2.00/ lb., Libertarian brains @ $4.00/ lb., and Republican brains @ $7.00/lb. I asked why the Republican brains were so expensive. The guy says, " Do you know how many Republicans it takes to get a pound of brains?".
"patientrenter, wouldn't you rather have more people paying taxes than not?"
Well, it depends on the real activity associated with the various choices. If we create a tax on human slavery, and then permit slavery, we have increased our taxes. But we are not better off. Look at the real activity, not the dollars.
Anecdote: I met up tonight with several acquaintances in the late 20s - early 30s age range. Home-buying is all the rage among this group. You would think it was 2005. Two people have just closed on properties (one townhouse, one condo), while two others are actively looking. I tried to explain that once the FTHB credit goes away, demand should drop considerably and more than make up for the subsidy in a decline in prices. What's important to these buyers though is that the credit is up front and adds to the very small down payments they are able to muster.
So we get the second round of ~0% down payment buyers, but we're expecting a much better outcome this time. This tax credit is for real estate agents and banks only.
barfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 8:29 pm
reply ignore user
I want some brainz now.
- I went to the store today to buy some brains, and I saw Democrat brains @ $2.00/ lb., Libertarian brains @ $4.00/ lb., and Republican brains @ $7.00/lb. I asked why the Republican brains were so expensive. The guy says, " Do you know how many Republicans it takes to get a pound of brains?".
I've heard that bush brains are known as the Kobe beef of brains. Incredibly expensive for such a little amount.
condos going at auction all over the southeast - cheap. some hole in memphis just sold almost all of 30-35 units downtown.
freaking war zone and speculators had to have picked them up. i don't believe any sane person who says they want to live in downtown memphis. or detroit, or... stop me now.
"When it comes to loans they keep on their balance sheets? Minimum 30% downpayment"
"So we get the second round of ~0% down payment buyers, but we're expecting a much better outcome this time. This tax credit is for real estate agents and banks only."
And existing homeowners, because it props up home prices.
Down payments, guys, downpayments are the key. I feel like one-note Johnny, but it really is the keystone to a sounder home finance system.
How come this didn't pass the first time? If they couldn't get it through before you would think it would be nearly impossible to do it now being the economy is recovering. Repubs are ready to rake Obama over the coals about raising the debt ceiling and argue for $15k credit for anyone?
Well, it depends on the real activity associated with the various choices. If we create a tax on human slavery, and then permit slavery, we have increased our taxes. But we are not better off. Look at the real activity, not the dollars.
-this sounds like,... I don't know what this sounds like.
"What's important to these buyers though is that the credit is up front and adds to the very small down payments they are able to muster.
So we get the second round of ~0% down payment buyers, but we're expecting a much better outcome this time. This tax credit is for real estate agents and banks only. "
I honestly can't blame people for taking advantage of no money down buying. So you go underwater? Exercise the put option. this is the lesson we have taught people. Can't blame them for responding to the incentive.
What would be REALLY dumb would be to put a lot of equity in a property.
Yup, that is a pretty good equation. Actually it should be downpayment - tax credit I think, but your point is well taken. In words, if your skin in the game from buying is less than your skin in the game from renting, go for it. You too could be living rent free for 24 months.
"wouldn't you rather have more people paying taxes than not?"
The larger the group you would like to pay taxes, the simpler it should be. Complex taxes can conceivably make sense for large corporations, but not for typical individuals.
Hey, I do heavy duty financial analysis for a living. Sometime my personal income and client success comes from knowing the code. I would still be quite happy to pay slightly more in taxes if it was really simple, and the IRS couldn't miscalculate or make up strange rules.
Here's a set of questions to ponder. How long did it take you to fill out your social security tax return last year? Your sales tax return? How about your property tax return? Ever been audited on your gasoline taxes?
"I remember when I used to live in CA. My state taxes could pay for a new car each year. "
That car ended up being driven by a state bureaucrat rather than you. They have this nice program here where the bureaucrats get to take the state cars home. Allegedly they account for personal use. Alrighty then.
":Down payments, guys, downpayments are the key. I feel like one-note Johnny, but it really is the keystone to a sounder home finance system. "
You are SO right. Why is that so confusing to people?
All this talk about what to do about Fannie and Freddie, what structure mortgage finance should have, ignores one simple solution - require larger downpayments, and it won't matter what the structure is.
Check out the performance of Fannie's guarantee book. they break it down into "credit enhanced" and non credit enhanced. Credit enhanced is basically loans over 80 LTV that require mortgage insurance.
non-credit enhanced loans have a serious delinquency rate of 2.5% or so. Not too bad considering the environment.
Credit enhanced (read: high LTV) loans? 10.25%. Why would we want to encourage that kind of performance?
"I honestly can't blame people for taking advantage of no money down buying. So you go underwater? Exercise the put option. this is the lesson we have taught people. Can't blame them for responding to the incentive."
I agree with this. In my mind, now could be a good time to buy if you A) would be happy living in the property you're buying indefinitely and can easily afford the mortgage or B) you are willing to walk away as soon as you go underwater. However, the people I know who are buying are operating under C) housing prices are bottoming, and if I can make the stretch now to buy a house in a very questionable neighborhood, I'll be rewarded by gentrification and appreciation five years from now.
"Hey, I do heavy duty financial analysis for a living. Sometime my personal income and client success comes from knowing the code. I would still be quite happy to pay slightly more in taxes if it was really simple, and the IRS couldn't miscalculate or make up strange rules."
Same here. The problem is our system of governance. For some reason, Congress has become a system where politicians trade votes and small amounts of money for political favors, including tax breaks. I don't think it's quite as bad in Germany, or the UK, or many other developed democracies. There's something about our system that allows Congress to be worse than others in this respect.
I am a renter ready to take up arms agains the NAR and homebuilders association on this issue.
This will not help a recovery
This will put its in greater debt
This will disincentivize saving responsibly for a first home (like me) which will futher degrade household finiancial responsibility and will on a large scale evenatually hurt the US credit rating.
(202) 224-3121 Tell your senators and congressman what you think too.
Ohhhh, I get it now. It's more effective a pass-through to the banks by spending even $15b because you then hand the banks 2m purchasers of future liabilities to the owners backed by the full force of law, and the assets and income streams that can be booked in full by the banks, thereby making them healthy again.
Why didn't they just say it was cheaper handing out $15b to banks that way and the public pays the rest? Much simpler.
Can foreigners get in on this? I feel like a swapline that I can arb the sh!t out of in carry between three jurisdictions whose tax authorities don't talk to each other. Uh, yeah, sure I'm a bank. Well, bank-ish anyway. Systemically bank-ish. Promise.
"I don't think it's quite as bad in Germany, or the UK, or many other developed democracies. There's something about our system that allows Congress to be worse than others in this respect."
I think the difference is the Parliamentary system versus the two party system. Our founding fathers were not very intelligent in that regard. A Parliamentary system creates much more opportunity for old parties to be dissolved and new parties created. Look at Canada (and I know there are a lot of Canadians on this board) - the Progressive Conservative party, which held power for much of the 90s, was pretty much totally wiped out, and was reborn years later.
Under this kind of system, both the Dems and Repubs would probably be dissolved after the next election.
"Why didn't they just say it was cheaper handing out $15b to banks that way and the public pays the rest? "
The (taxpaying) public is paying the $15 billion. This way, they get to leverage the $15 billion (that's just the tax credit), with the rest (many hundreds of billions) coming from... the FHA. It's all coming from taxpayers, but filtered and arranged to make it all look like it's coming from somewhere else. It's the US govt's 2009 Rube Goldberg bubble home price support machine.
Every decision revolves around saving the current banking system. Whatever it takes and whatever the long term consequences. Save the current credit system at all costs.
Every decision so far makes perfect sense IMO based on the above.
"the two party system. Our founding fathers were not very intelligent in that regard"
Forgive my ignorance of US history. But surely the founders didn't actually build a two-party system, with only Republicans and Democrats. Didn't the system have to evolve for a while to get to be a 2-party system?
"Every decision revolves around saving the current banking system."
Then why not just pay the banks for their losses?
I agree that bailing banks is a huge priority for the PTB, but bailing existing homeowners' dreams of saving their accumulated prior home price gains is also huge.
"Every decision revolves around saving the current banking system."
Then why not just pay the banks for their losses?
Because the government would have been thrown out on their asses if they had proposed 2t ++ to the banks 2 years ago. Even the sheeple and our foreign creditors have their limits.
The only way to do it is by stealth, drip by drip. Which ends up costing more in the end and results in a much more painful economic downturn. But that is the political reality.
One thing is for certain: the housing market wouldn't survive without the FHA, and now the question becomes can the FHA survive?
Instead of all these tax breaks and government aids, I got an idea: how about people buying houses the old fashion way, you know, when you could just simply afford it without any gimmick.
Forgive my ignorance of US history. But surely the founders didn't actually build a two-party system, with only Republicans and Democrats. Didn't the system have to evolve for a while to get to be a 2-party system?
they may not have "built" it . but it already existed in the form of the Whigs, and the Tories, The Whigs being the functional equivalent of the Democrats, and the Tories being equivalent to the Republicans ( or traditionalists, meaning Royalists), of their day.
"Looks like party systems hour has begun. Not my forte.
nytol"
Probably a wise choice. I am curious, since I do not know the history, or the particular structural mechanisms that cause us to have more a complicated tax code for fairly ordinary folks than most other nations with similar economic activity and education levels. But stirring politics is dangerous.
Rob has it right, sorry patientrenter.
I'm not saying this because of some anti banker rant. It is just a fact. Without supporting residential real estate values, the large money center banks in the USA and worldwide were headed for certain insolvency (instead of their probable insolvency even at present).
Without recoverable debt the TBTF banks were dead meat. They knew it we knew it TPTB knew it heck even j6p knew it.
Now we can argue as to why TBTF institutions got their way, but it is not even a debatable point that the primary purpose of the housing stimulus was to recapitalize the banks by making large portions of their toxic debt slightly less toxic.
FHA plus monetized $8k tax credit has been up to 80% of the market in some areas. This is no money down all over again. 20% of these loans originated since the housing crisis began are now in default or foreclosure. Wonder when the nitwits in DC figure out without skin in the game people walk. If someone doesn't have 20% to put down they are not qualified to buy a house. Period
It came into existence even before the first elections, but it really grew in prominence after the first generation or so. Washington devoted extensive time in his farewell address to warning against political parties and enumerating their dangers to the ship of state. Unfortunately, when you construct a system in which they're a winning strategy, all the wise words in the world are but so many bubbles in that ocean...
"Without supporting residential real estate values, the large money center banks in the USA and worldwide were headed for certain insolvency (instead of their probable insolvency even at present)."
Montas ankle, if the govt had simply paid the banks directly for their losses, they would be solvent again. And that is a lot simpler than flooding the housing market with FHA money, and FNM money, and FRE money, and having the Fed buy MBS, etc.
some investor guy (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 8:32 pm reply
"Six figures down the tube at an effective rate of about 42% state and federal."
I remember when I used to live in CA. My state taxes could pay for a new car each year.
Exactly.
Every years we send to Sacramento well more than enough for a very nice car.
And what do we get for it?
I like John Maudlin's recent observation:
"I'll leave you with this thought I gleaned from a newsletter from Australia called The Privateer (http://www.the-privateer.com)
'In 1909, the US federal government had an annual budget of $US 0.8 Billion. With this it governed a population of just over 90 million people. The cost of government was about $9 per capita. In 2009, the US federal government has an annual budget of $US 3,550 Billion. With this it governs a population of just over 300 million people. That's a cost of about $11,675 per capita.'
"One thing is for certain: the housing market wouldn't survive without the FHA, and now the question becomes can the FHA survive?
Instead of all these tax breaks and government aids, I got an idea: how about people buying houses the old fashion way, you know, when you could just simply afford it without any gimmick."
Again, as RD says, it all comes back to the banks. the banks need a continuous stream of new mortgages to feed their origination beasts. Of course, they don't want to hold any of the risk, so they lobby to have the government take all the risk.
The reason I am so pessimistic on the future of the US economy is because we have done nothing to fix the housing finance industry, and I see it every day in my job. There are plenty of people more than happy to originate mortgages, to sell services to those who originate mortgages, to service mortgages, etc., but very few who want to take the default risk on mortgages. They either want to package it up and sell to some sucker, or today, have the taxpayers take it on.
Very few banks have any interest in actually retaining mortgage credit risk. They want to originate and sell, that's it.
"Expedia Says Hotel Prices to Decline Through 2010"
Maybe SM Landlord remembers this. In the 1990s, someone discovered that they could buy a small hotel for much less than a house, and turned it into their personal home.
"If someone doesn't have 20% to put down they are not qualified to buy a house. Period "
I agree 100%. Again, I see it everyday. Some in the industry claim that people with high FICOs and full documentation perform well even without a large downpayment, but the data from 2006-2007 don't bear that out - these people are defaulting at double-digits rates, maybe not as high as subprime stated income borrowers, but double-digit delinquency rates is unacceptable.
20% down minimum, and we don't have to worry about who retains the credit risk - there won't be much of it.
I'd like to see an estimate on what those 1.9 million houses would have sold for without the $8K credit. $10K less? $20K? Great 350,000 new homeowners, of which maybe 40% will default because they've got no skin in the game, but the other 1.55 million homeowners likely got suckered in to overpaying for their houses, or could have gotten a better price with less bailout bucks competition..
"The only way to do it is by stealth, drip by drip. "
I see, my Rube Goldberg money machine. Well, you may be correct, poic and monta's ankle. We should be able to tell with the govt's reaction on CRE. If the govt reacts to CRE in the same way they reacted to RRE, taking actions to save lenders mainly by price supports for the RE itself, instead of winding up or paying off the banks, then you are correct. If they let CRE prices drop with few price supports, then I will keep my theory intact.
"the other 1.55 million homeowners likely got suckered in to overpaying for their houses, or could have gotten a better price with less bailout bucks competition.."
that's the tragedy of it - the foolish marginal buyer hurts everyone. Sure, you could say "well, you could have decided to rent", but is that a solution? To force every rational person to rent, and only the irresponsible buy? No, the solution should be that the irresponsible are kept from owning a house.
the ONLY way to ensure responsibility is to ensure people put down a significant downpayment - 20% at least. if they want to gambling that kind of money, let them. Few will.
I wouldn't say we were 1200 times better off, but we are somewhat better off, now that we have some sort of social safety net, which didn't exist before. Apparently, none of you have actually gone hungry before. It used to happen all the time.
"Expedia Says Hotel Prices to Decline Through 2010"
Maybe SM Landlord remembers this. In the 1990s, someone discovered that they could buy a small hotel for much less than a house, and turned it into their personal home.
Microtel Inns will probably be free with a rebate. Can hardly wait.
@Montas - maybe the TBTF's are up to their eyeballs with a few trillion in swaps bet on the wrong side of CRE, and that's really why they're scared witless about it.
"So small banks will fail and CRE will be allowed to fall"
Yeah, but the evidence accumulates. Honestly, I don't think Barney Frank comes to work every day trying to maximize the return for GS and BoA and other TBTF banks. He wants to make sure that his mostly middle class, homeowning constituents are happy, and he gets some campaign contributions from large pockets, and he does something that satisfies his principles - transferring wealth from wealthy investors and taxpayers to honest hardworking middle class homeowners. There are a lot of motives that have to come together, and get satisfied simultaneously, for someone like that to vote for something. It comes down to votes, and the money to market yourself to the voters. Given a choice between rescuing banks without rescuing homeowners, or rescuing both, someone like that will go every time for the second choice, even if it costs more. Same for most Congressmen.
kicker: boat parts sales. as if that industry is coming back soon. woof.
On the other hand if the guy was into repair parts might be ass kick... parts for new build 'double woof'.
As for hotels... I did a round trip day today - drove about 500 miles & made calls... usually did it as a stay over... instead left early this AM and just now got home... no hotel room & only one meal out. I know - not doing my part to stimulate the economy... maybe they need to give $8000 to spend on hotel rooms [/snark].
1 currency - Don't give the gov't any ideas, since that would be a fine, not a tax, it wouldn't break that no new taxes for the middle class promise. They could just make it an across the board fine for all citizens who actually have savings, or even better, savings OR available limits on their CC's or other lines of credit. Those people should not be hoarding money, but helping to save the economy by spending until they're broke too.
I was thinking about buying my first house, but then I realized the tax credit is inflating the price of all starter homes by around $40k. ($8k credit times 4:1 typical leverage, assuming a 20% down payment.)
So I decided to wait until it expires.
Funny, I was informing some of my co-workers of this same logic just the other day, they looked at me like I was an idiot.. Here in PDX the masses are saying we've hit bottom and it's only up from here, pointing to increasing sales as the evidence of the recovery. Funny how they ignore that UE just passed 12%. Going to be an interesting Fall...
Driven by one motive... pols want to keep their job. That's their strategy... the tactics to implement are as follows:
1. Bail out large banks and other financially important organizations, that also happen to be large contributors to political campaignsmoney to buy votes
2. Bail out existing homeowners who are relying on holding onto their accumulated prior home price gains, ultimately to spend them. the votes that money buys
Patientrenter, thank you. I assume you are against both, for which I can hardly blame you. Sometimes your verbiage confuses me, but that is not your fault.
Patient this is not about motivations
Barney et al have been told that tbtf banks need to be recapitalized
we will not take the steps to wind them down or preprivatize so he and congress believe that they must save the USA b saving the banks. They have been deluded into thinking that artificially inflatng hme prices will help both homeowners (like me) and bankers and this the whole economy.
This seems true but it is not. By inflating home values the debt held and leveraged on the books of tbtf increases in value exponentially. Homeowners and homebuyers are stuck with debt service and do not save for productive uses.
It may seem like a transfer of wealth to the middle class. It is not
"I wouldn't say we were 1200 times better off, but we are somewhat better off,"
"Somewhat"?? At a $9. per person cost vs. $12K per person cost to administer the affairs of the body of states? Safety blanket or not, this is totally obscene, uncalled for, and approximately $11K worth of bullsh** per person.
And you wonder why people like me say "Screw 'Em" and drop out.
I agree, dryfly. I think that Chicago and other machine cities have shown us very thoroughly by this point that the votes can be acquired so long as the money and stiff arms are available.
Achuthan recently told Reuters that a double-dip recession is highly unlikely, and that the United States is poised for a far stronger recovery than many are projecting.
@montas, while I'm all for suggesting that congress and senate members are dumb enough to be duped, the cynic in me agrees with patient, and they're playing the game, and in it for the money and power, and too many of them don't give a shit about what it does to their country.
Nobody has a problem with believing that bankers are all in it for the same reason.
There can be no real bailout without realizing J6P in the overpriced box has to get some relief, or the system will keep on wobbling.
CRE can fail- why? Because the investors in it don't vote in mass quantity!!!
Well, I have to get some sleep, but we are only bailing out as little as the folks in DC can get away with.
Realize, that you will never get rich worrying much about the tax consequences of your actions until you make your living off your investments.
One of the funniest comments is that folks complain about how much in taxes they pay- remember, taxes are what you pay to keep the poor from making a society that looks like Brazil. You could live behind concertina wire, with armed guards, sweating if your kids get kidnapped while coming back from a party. Sweating whether or not the government is going to figure out your tax dodge and take almost everything you have, etc...
Not very enticing, is it? Remember, government is what is designed to keep you somewhat sane and somewhat safe.
Feel better now?
"It may seem like a transfer of wealth to the middle class. It is not"
Well, I agree. I was trying to paint a picture of what justifications a Congressman might have in their own mind. In truth (sorry, guys and gals) if you characterize efforts to keep home prices high as a transfer of wealth from one large group in society to another, it's a transfer to homeowners who bought a long time ago - the baby boomers and earlier generations - from succeeding generations. [I know my fellow boomers hate to hear this, but it is the broad generalization. It's not true in a few areas like dryfly's, where homes cost the same as 30 years ago, adjusted for wage inflation. And there are many individual exceptions.]
I know a number of people who have testified before Congress, state legislatures, etc.
On technical topics, most of the legislators do not have a deep or detailed knowledge. This sometimes extends to regulators, even in their areas of specialization.
Over time, less and less legislation is written by senators, congressmen, or state legislators. More is written by staff, lobbyists, think tanks, special interest groups, and other people who are not elected. Especially at the Federal level, fewer and fewer elected officials are reading the full text of bills. You will occassionallly see a bill author who obviously has not read his own bill.
I am probably guilty for steering the conversation to politics, which is a mistake. Some key things about what's happening in the housing market and economy can only be understood by understanding the politics, but it would be nice if there was a way to keep the politics discussion limited to what's necessary to understand the housing stuff. Oh, well.
BSR, believe me, I do not begrudge you your rightful due as a U.S. serviceman, who put his life on the line for his (our) country. I only want you to remember where your benefits come from, and that, sir, is taxes.
"Over time, less and less legislation is written by senators, congressmen, or state legislators. More is written by staff, lobbyists, think tanks, special interest groups, and other people who are not elected. Especially at the Federal level, fewer and fewer elected officials are reading the full text of bills. You will occassionallly see a bill author who obviously has not read his own bill."
That's everywhere. In my last corporate stint, the high execs read nothing but hardcopy PowerPoint presentations. When briefing to decide on major initiatives.
Bob, I think it's more like trying to save their arses and it's not working out so well this far. Maybe I'm wrong, though, and I have no issues with being corrected.
That is because the American people used to admire smart people and wanted the smart people to provide the leadership.
Bush proved that has passed- as did Reagan.
Politics has devolved into a show, entertainment like E tv.
Now, the ability to answer questions without a teleprompter and talking points, including complex questions, most likely can lead to better government, or at least a government that understands what it is doing.
The parliamentary system breeds fewer useless idiots.
I could never imagine Bush doing Prime Minister's questions- but I am sure Cheney could.
As for the regulatory capture, that will only recede when the rich- including you- have much less sway over the election system.
Right now it runs on money- but if it runs on populism, the rich are truly screwed again- just like in the 1930s.
" read nothing but hardcopy PowerPoint presentations. When briefing to decide on major initiatives."
There's not much choice, with the time constraints. If you have the right people, then they actually understand a lot more than just the Powerpoint. I know I ask a few other hands-on people about key points in any such decision, and I am familiar with the hands-on work from years ago, so I smell the problems and issues. And there's usually several people like me looking at it. Not all corporations are poorly run.
You will occassionallly see a bill author who obviously has not read his own bill.
Occasionally?
BTW - Allen M has it right... there is always a simple answer for a complex problem - invariably that answer is wrong.
You want a simple government then live in a simple society - ours is anything but. The technical, social, economic is all very complex. The political & bureaucratic only mirror those. And just because YOU might want to opt out doesn't mean the complexity goes away... it only goes away when everyone opts out [or is forced out].
"I, for one, have no problem with bringing politics into the argument"
I like to keep it to a bare minimum. For me, it's like adding a very hot pepper to a dish. Sometimes, in moderation, when the dish calls for it, it can help. But use it a lot, and you can only taste the pepper. It overwhelms all the other good flavors.
"As for hotels... I did a round trip day today - drove about 500 miles & made calls... usually did it as a stay over... instead left early this AM and just now got home... no hotel room & only one meal out. I know - not doing my part to stimulate the economy... maybe they need to give $8000 to spend on hotel rooms"
Funny, if I have to stay overnight somewhere for work and am traveling alone, I usually bid on a hotel that morning from Priceline, the deals you get are incredible (first go to a site like biddingfortravel.com to get the right strategy). I don't have to, I could expense a corporate-rate, but it is the principal - don't overbuild and you won't have to auction off your rooms at 20% of the listed rate.
Re: "Politics has devolved into a show, entertainment like E tv."
Palin's backers obviously see the reality of being able to use an idiot to convey idiot sound bites to retards and then use the entertainment to drive home a meaningless message that prevents reality from being part of the show.
Funny, if I have to stay overnight somewhere for work and am traveling alone, I usually bid on a hotel that morning from Priceline, the deals you get are incredible (first go to a site like biddingfortravel.com to get the right strategy). I don't have to, I could expense a corporate-rate, but it is the principal - don't overbuild and you won't have to auction off your rooms at 20% of the listed rate.
Priceline doesn't have good deals for Park Rapids Minnesota... not in a place I'd want to stay.
I like the example in the story, the Myers rushed to buy a condo for $171,000... to get the $8,000 credit. Not enough units are selling so the condo developer dropped price 10%... If only the buyers waited they could have had more.. but they were stupid and spent more. It's cash for clunkers all over.. so many dealers reamed the buyers during the program because the buyers just thought they were getting free money but it was the dealers getting the free money the buyers were just paying too much for a depreciated asset. Most would have been better off selling the clunker and buying outside of the C4C deal time when the dealers were motived.
@AllenM - When you write about other countries and their problems compared to the US, do you ever wonder if there are people in some of the millennia-old countries looking at the US now, and thinking - "seen them come and go a hundred times before"? They're probably amused by the upstart two centuries plus old superpower.
Because the climber nicknamed "Spiderman" has just scaled the 88-storey, 452-metre (1,483ft) Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, the third tallest building in the world.
I'd say partisan rants stifle real debate... we've been pretty good here about NOT letting that happen [except for a few months prior to elections - genie gets out once in awhile then].
This is NOT a partisan political blog - CR & tanta made that clear from the get go.
Who here is not a hard core partisan, be it Republican, Libertarian, or Democrat? Who among you has no opinions?
Having opinions is NOT the same thing as being excessively partisan. Check it or take it to freep or dkos - they love it there. This is NOT a political blog.
It's been 12 months since economic problems went into a higher gear. The economy is no stronger than it was 12 months ago. Substantial government spending and guarantees were issued. Some are already receding, others are scheduled to hit their limits soon without renewal, and more still are a question of when the interest payments become unaffordable. Economic activity at this level in terms of income, employment, and trade is creating a lot of social pressure not only domestically, but internationally. German elections on September 27th, Japan's were on August 30th and appear to have marked a more brutal assessment of reality in economic data reporting. Bair, Geithner, and Obama's neighbor have yet to close on the sale of their homes. Back 2 school sales were a bust, judging by the lack of enthusiastic guidance revisions, the weather and late labor day have expired as excuses. Industrial production bottomed but is headed sideways. Renewed end demand is harder to find than Jimmy Hoffa. Every once in a while politicians fly up a kite of financial system reform. Most days revolve on announcing that the recession is over, and pursuing projects important to political branding. I was wrong about my market timing call evidently. So I would like to ask the question, what will transpire during the next 12 months?
"Who here is not a hard core partisan, be it Republican, Libertarian, or Democrat?"
I'd say dryfly is not, nor is pavel. I find myself disagreeing with all of the groups fairly often (and I have never voted, or contributed to a party, or worked for one, or really cared much about one) so I consider myself as not even soft core, never mind hard core.
I suppose if you move in social circles that define themselves partly by political groups, then it must be easy to think everyone belongs to one of these "tribes", as I like to call them, but there are a few of us out here who are neither completely ignorant nor passionate nor loyal to a political tribe. I claim membership in other social groups, but not political parties. Maybe I am a freak!
Like Allen, I think at least one state government is going to spin very far out of control in the next several months.
However, having seen a number of cities and school districts come out of state takeovers in much better shape, it doesn't actually sound that bad. The typical causes of receivership include: longstanding corruption, long term population decline, one party being in power for decades, inability to retain good employees, a bureaucracy which believes it is invincible, and extremely inflexibly rules (often imposed from the outside).
While unions are often blamed, the great majority of public entities have unions. Good leadership can distinguish good labor relations vs nutty giveaways.
Of course, but we are the truly terrifying 900 lb gorilla.
Without our technological terror war machine, we would be just another larger Canada. But that war machine is what makes this country absolutely terrifying to the smaller countries in the world.
Look at the fact it took less than 200k troops to knock off a country with 26 million people, in two weeks.
That is terrifying to any country.
Our economy, thanks to the almighty dollar is similarly terrifying.
Look at the rest of the world catching the flu, while we have caught a cold.
A lot of folks are thinking Putin style, that they need to move away from the big mean machine, or be eaten alive when we get desperate.
"But we all know that the deal is done, the fix is in, and the tax credit will be continued, after a short pause, and it may well be expanded. Where's my blood pressure medication again? "
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
Thats how it goes
Everybody knows...
".......but there are a few of us out here who are neither completely ignorant nor passionate nor loyal to a political tribe."
.....I would imagine regardless the posturing and feather ruffling even here, most can't be put "into a box". More so than the totally ignorant - at least people read here.
Citizen AllenM,
At $180bn, and an interest rate of 3.360% (We're sorry..., it costs $6bn a year to keep AIG alive. I think they could save as much money by legislating double-sided printing at all federal institutions, and that is a less sensitive issue.
@EHP - Unless you're one of the players rigging the game right now, I don't see how anyone could accurately predict 12 months out from now. What should be done likely won't be, and kicking the can down the road to a bigger mess could take years. Too many people are still in denial.
Well, I fit in the 20% down, mortgage less than equivalent rent, can easily afford the mortgage, and plan on staying here forever categories.
So, thanks, suckers.
Seriously, I see the $8k as a way to mitigate the fact that the house is pretty much guaranteed to drop in value over the next few years. Since we sold in Aug '06 and bought in Aug '09 it's still a net positive for us.
Not necessarily. Partisan means you are pro one party or another... it is entirely possible to be independent and NOT pro one party or another. Between a half & a third of us in this country currently DO NOT affiliate with any political party.
EHP- do you believe the stock market is going to continue higher at the frantic pace of the last six months?
What about the metals markets going nuts?
Why is oil staying up?
Will Israel go it alone against Iran?
The background news is starting to get very ominous, and we here at CR are watching the economy flounder, watching the happy talk, and nervously eying the exits again.
How did that turn out last time?
This time, I took my own advice and went to cash last month- but a lot of money is in the markets very loosely, and will panic at the drop of a hat.
So you sometimes agree with Democratic ideals, and at other time agree with Republican ideals, and yet at other times agree with Libertarian ideals, and what have you? You're nobody.
I think the distinction is that a partisan aligns their opinions closely to the collective opinions of a group. Being more partisan means a closer alignment. There's nothing wrong with that, per se, but a very partisan person has somewhat predictable opinions. If you already know the group's positions (because the group is well-known) then the very partisan person can contribute little new when they are expressing opinions. Of course, when such a person is providing objective facts, then they can bring new and interesting information.
Like any team sport, engaging in a contest between two partisan groups can be very enjoyable to those who are passionate about such things. For the rest of us, it's... less interesting. To give you an idea of what it is like, have you ever turned on a TV in some foreign country and seen two teams playing some weird sport you don't care about. Now imagine that you had to watch it.
I hope that helps give you some insight into how folks like me see it. Not trying to argue - really - just trying to explain my perspective as honestly and clearly as I am able to.
@AllenM - Canada isn't afraid of the US. They just send comedians like Jim Carey over, and the distraction works perfectly without spending a dime on the military.
Like any team sport, engaging in a contest between two partisan groups can be very enjoyable to those who are passionate about such things. For the rest of us, it's... less interesting. To give you an idea of what it is like, have you ever turned on a TV in some foreign country and seen two teams playing some weird sport you don't care about. Now imagine that you had to watch it.
well put, but after living in America for any length of time, I don't see how one can remain neutral, after all that has transpired.
There's nothing wrong with that, per se,................I beg to differ..........many in WWII Germany closed their eyes to indefensible evil. THAT is wrong. IF you can't see that, then YOU are wrong - AND dangerous to the rest of civilization.
BS. I'm an independent thinker, as opposed to a partisan robot. I have my own beliefs and ideas that weren't handed to me as political marching orders.
So you sometimes agree with Democratic ideals, and at other time agree with Republican ideals, and yet at other times agree with Libertarian ideals, and what have you? You're nobody.
Dude - you are either one really good or you really need to learn to think for yourself. Just sayin'...
A few municipal bankruptcies, but it will really scare a lot of people. Throw in two or three state governments, and that will bring the fear, big time.
Dropping home prices. A given, nationwide, on average. Bubble places are still deflating, and nonbubble just getting started due to unemployment.
Collapsing commercial real estate prices. A given, nationwide, on average. Bubble places are still deflating, and nonbubble just getting started due to unemployment.
Riots in CA, MI, RI and/or FL. CA, yes. MI, no lacks sufficient population density in urban areas. RI? Really? I would predict Cleveland. FL- yup, Miami.
More suicides of people in finance who have either lost all of their money, or who are under indictment. Yup.
The largest planned demolitions in US history (ok, maybe that's 2011-12). My bet would be 2013-2014- it takes time to throw in the towel.
Dow 7k, maybe 6k. Yup. Gold $2k
FDIC draws on credit line. A given. No way to avoid this one in the next 12 months.
A major sovereign debt default. Ireland? Spain? Eastern Europe? Pick one!
Dollar devaluation. Already under way!
Assassination/revolution in a country which thought it had recently moved to being western and democratic. Probably eastern europe or east asia. Yup. I pick Argentina, once again, followed by Venezuela and Bolivia, just in South America.
Incentives/subsidies not to build more CRE or homes. Nope, the market is already doing a bang up job of eliminating this problem.
How is that for pessimistic, remember, six months ago I told everyone on CR to enjoy the interlude and get ready for the next round!!
"I don't see how one can remain neutral, after all that has transpired"
LoL! Some people are married with children, and others without kids, and some are unmarried. Each group can't understand how the people in the other group can rationally make their different choice. But we do! It think this is similar. I look at each issue I care about. Whether a party agrees with my conclusions or not affects me only in judging what the most likely actual outcome will be as the issue plays out.
Edit: and when I care, I do reach a (non-neutral) conclusion - on the issue.
dryfly, after growing up during the Reagan revolution, and everything since, I am more wedded to democratic ideals than ever. Clinton was a sellout, imo. If Obama proves to be so, then we are truly screwed, as many here claim. Maybe I am the last of the true believers. A fool. What can I say?
metals market: Extremely consolidated, refuge of HFT, can harvest on fears of inflation which is the only thematic trade that has generated interest in the last year. I missed out on those rallies, but that is a price I'm happy to pay. Warning people since the new year that deflating factors from credit would prohibit an inflation takeup whilst trade partners would not abandon the USD within 1 year of demand being in the toilet. Warning that JPM is 80% of Comex Gold.
oil: at first it was contango harvesting, then storage filled up and the risk free returns were gone and oil has been stuck at $70 despite further USD weakening. Keep in mind, these moves have not been justification of a USD printing/inflation theme. Oil rose in all currencies, and many of these businesses were already hurting before demand collapsed, interest rate premiums increased, and their currencies appreciated
general note about commodities: here's what happened to jump start it all. hot money went to emerging markets for yield, FCBs had to sterilize, pushed more hot money out of treasuries, there you have a mini self-fulfilling cycle. Meanwhile big lending could not be absorbed by capital investment, and ended up in assets. In the US sold MBS went back into risky stocks. China will lend again, but not until they can guarantee it won't go into stupid commodities at high prices. Have you noticed that they will be doing a lot of industrial consolidation before the next up-cycle?
I wouldn't be so harsh, BSR. There is a place for some partisanship. It's like my hot pepper analogy. Some can work, for the right situation. We all like a good contest on a high school football field, and it's more fun with a little partisanship - when it is kept within limits. Same even with politics and other things. I approve of extreme partisanship in moderation!
Citizen AllenM
You are wrong, no where do I assume the $180bn is to be repaid. It costs $6bn a year to pretend you have a much larger asset. It's called evergreening.
I would agree with the controlled aspect. But I think, a la the 70s, that control is being lost. The participation of state players far outweighs JPM- plus the street aspect with cash for gold everywhere is starting to weigh heavily.
I only think metals are done when the Fed has to explicitly tighten to prop the dollar. Last night's discussion on Yellen's speech has more of my thinking.
@AllenM - there's a big difference between concern over a shared economy and fear of the war machine. Of course, the last time the US invaded Canada, they took a look around, and said - "it's too friggin cold up here - keep it."
Further evidence of loss of control is Barrick killing off it's hedges and forward sales.
In other words, they are sucking it up and taking their losses now, rather waiting for possibly immense losses later. Either that or fear they would have to deliver into hedges that they might have preferred to roll.
No matter what, too many signs of major instability in the markets.
You missed my point:
"Without our technological terror war machine, we would be just another larger Canada. But that war machine is what makes this country absolutely terrifying to the smaller countries in the world.
Look at the fact it took less than 200k troops to knock off a country with 26 million people, in two weeks.
That is terrifying to any country.
Our economy, thanks to the almighty dollar is similarly terrifying."
You guys have already bought into the USA, lock stock and barrel. The fact you don't explicitly want to admit it doesn't change that fact.
The Fed won't tighten interest rates. I do expect they'll be expanding the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and/or Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility within 6 months rather than attempting to revive money market funds. I guess that is contingent on my expectation of a wave of November layoffs as annual budgets are decided, to be followed by disappointing Christmas sales / international trade, and a general unwinding of international stimulus efforts. If they do want to tighten, they'll have many more levers they'll nudge first. I guess we'll see what happens with mortgages first. Which should be hilarious so long as you don't work in the Treasury.
No sense in invading Mexico now, too, as the oil's running out.
2 out of the top three fields on earth are going down fast---
Anyone betting when Ghawar goes? I bet we would miss those 5 million barrels a day.
Citizen AllenM
Don't diminish the receptive nature of the market into buying a pure gold play equity issue at this point. They did choose to raise more than necessary to buy out the hedges after all
I have voted for Dems, GOPers & third party candidates for different offices all in the same election & felt completely consistent doing it. In no election have I ever voted a straight party line [all one party] not ever, not even close.
In fact during the Reagan, Bush I & Bush II years I tended to vote more Democratic... during the Carter & Clinton years I voted more GOP... throughout those years there has always been a sprinkling of independents... sometimes more sometimes less. I didn't intentionally vote 'in opposition' it just turned out that way.
Watching how O has handled the bailouts I think that trend will continue.
"So why aren't employers stepping up their hiring? As my friend Larry Kudlow puts it: "The threat of higher payroll taxes and energy costs is more than enough to deter new hiring. Taxes on upper-end investors are going to rise, too, and there may be health-care surtax on top of that. And don't forget that small businesses pay the top personal tax rate, which is going up. Oh, and how about the recent minimum-wage hike? Yet another business cost." Bushwa- there is no hiring because the consumer is moribund- cart before horse thinking. Unless the U.S. rediscovers its manufacturing base and rebuilds the goods producing sector of the economy we will not create the necessary amount of viable job growth. Unfortunately, the likely hood of rejuvenating our productive capacity remains low, precisely because we believe a lower dollar is the way to boost exports. The correct way to boost exports is to lower the corporate tax rate and reduce regulations. More bushwa- the only way to get any more manufacturing here is the dollar crashing- without that, any manufacturing would simply be in the Pearl river Delta- MAJOR FAILURE IN THINKING HEREThe way I see it is this: until the legislative ambiguity abates and/or the government has successfully inflated another asset bubble, we will suffer with the condition of a jobless recovery. And even if accomplished, that job growth will be of the non-viable and unsustainable variety once again. " Gee, like the last two bubbles. Pento is an idiot. Still.
Barfly, I would vote for a party that makes sense to me, but none of them do.
Parts of them make sense, but all three parties (including the Libertarians) have nutjob wings.
We really need a good centrist party like Germany had. That swing party making deals really advanced the centrist agenda, and made a country that worked. The extremists hate the centrist party and position with a passion.
Just like partisans hate the middle of the road here, because it deserts them when they get nutty. Arizona is a prime example- we now own one of the most right wing republican parties in America, and it is about to go down in flames next election.
Why? Too many nutjobs, and not enough middle of the road types, which have been explicitly targeted as RINOs.
Now the party is going extinct- and well, hoocoodanode?
And we all know how much the folks in power love immense pain. I wish they had the nads, but I know they don't.
Doesn't matter, really... goes more to timing of the pain than any real avoidance. A currency is only dependent upon Fed policies in relatively moderate times. Ultimately it's dependent upon political stability and economic strength, neither of which we'll have going forward under either scenario.
@dryfly - does that voting record make you a partisan contrarian?
Really.
I think my tolerance for stupid is a bit lower. I just wish I cut my investment losses as quickly as I did my political ones. There have been a few pols I've voted for over and over - not many. Then what right do they have to the position if they didn't do a good job? None. Applies to both parties.
BTW my two favorite pols of all time - one Dem & one GOP - both had problems with their own party elite & were fiercely independent.
that job growth will be of the non-viable and unsustainable variety once again.
Like the last three recessions.
The taxation argument just doesn't hold water.
It's a function of division of work.
Less and less work as we go along, revealed by each recession, each time to a greater degree.
It's just not that hard to see now.
dryfly, I have seen what happens when the party machine does cull their own- you end up with a very extremist party that is starting to resemble the whigs.
The only thing standing between the Republican party and oblivion is the Chamber of Commerce types still bankrolling the idiocracy.
When they cut them loose, it will be over for 20 years, and if the stock market goes south...
I really read up on the Great Depression five years ago again, and it has stood me in good stead.
The only thing standing between the Republican party and oblivion is the Chamber of Commerce types still bankrolling the idiocracy.
I would argue the only thing between the GOP and oblivion are Democrats. Just like the only thing between Democrats & oblivion circa 2002 was W & the GOP...
Benchmark indexes extended gains after Buffett told a conference in California that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is “buying stocks right as we speak” and he’s getting a “lot for my money” in equities.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s has probably ended, while warning that growth may not be strong enough to quickly reduce the jobless rate.
I guess it goes without saying, I mean American labor, although I support Chinese and Mexican labor, as well. Anything to get a share of the profits of the actual labor.
“A weak dollar should be welcomed, since it signals a recovery in the global economy and financial markets,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. “The U.S. will likely welcome dollar carry trades.”
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I, VT) is my man.
There can't be a large radical party by definition, but even "moderately radical" ideas never get voiced seriously by either party of the duopoly. Legalized vice, peace, unilateral disarmament, carbon emission (until too late)...
wow! some investor guy
that is some list !
I leave for the deep countryside of Cambodia, pretty much where they recruited the first Khmer Rouge soldiers and
I come back to these lists...
must say I have never lived amongst a people who live so close and I would venture to say harmonious with the land...
no electricity out there fellows except for the wealthist who owned a generator and TV and karoake machine ...
all domiciles are elevated about 10 feet off the ground for the occassional flood... some have thatched roofs, others
have corrugated metal (I spent an afternoon in one - a convection oven) and those with money have tiled roofs.
...
I can see why Pol Pot thought the only true revolutionaries could come from this group, the purity of soul as opposed to the
bourgeoise rotting disease of the cities.
.... the other day the topic was on Minsky and CR mentioned a genetic defect of capitalism, no mention was made of the
central defects of Marxism. One is Marx given the time he resided in could not imagine a post industrial society which relied
on the rise of the technocratic class. One theory I happen to ascribe to is that the technocrats brought down the Soviet Union...
they had money, perks, country houses yet they a very small percentage of the Communist Party membership which is the early 80s
was about 4.2% of the population. Now, this idea is underscored today by China's major drive to have Party membership reflect at least
20% of said technocrats, right now I think it's under 8%.
Which brings me to my point - Pol Pot's radical agrarian communism was the only solution I have read about that attacked that systemic
flaw. Sooner or later the PRC will have to confront them and they will decide they don't need the Party. I always use Albert Speer as my emblematic 20th century technocrat....
Prices of U.S. shopping malls may return to 2003 or 2004 levels as consumer spending and the commercial real estate market recover, Simon Property Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David E. Simon said. That would represent a decline of as much as 23 percent.
Simon, the biggest U.S. shopping mall owner, has $3.8 billion on its balance sheet and is looking at possible acquisitions, Simon said in an interview in New York.
nder Pressure
“The consumer’s still a little under pressure,” David Simon said, and unemployment will have to decline before retail spending recovers.
Companies cut payrolls by 216,000 workers last month, boosting the U.S. jobless rate to 9.7 percent, a 26-year high, according to Labor Department data.
“It’s too early for us to declare the recession over,” Simon said. At the same time, he said, Christmas sales may surprise even some of his tenants.
“I actually think it could be a little bit better than what the retailers are anticipating,” he said.
You like to point fingers at Republican administrations but conveniently forget the Democratic congresses that accompanied them. The Dems owned 9 of the last 14 sessions of the House, and all bills originate there. Sure, the Dems only owned 4 (and split 2) of the last 14 sessions of the Senate, but not once did the Reps have a filibuster-proof majority.
Oh, and the oft-derided "Military Industrial Complex"? That was entrenched well before Reagan came along, and it just so happens the Dems owned both the House & Senate for all but 4 years out of the 50 that preceded the Gipper.
TJ, no disagreements with anything you say. How did Shakespere say it? All are punish-ed? I'm talking about the workers. The grunts. Who stands up for the workers? Supposedly, the Democratic party. Well, because of that, I support the Democratic party, for better or worse. If I ever see the Republican party stand up for labor, then I'll support them, but not until. Period.
“A weak dollar should be welcomed, since it signals a recovery in the global economy and financial markets,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. “The U.S. will likely welcome dollar carry trades.”
Hello $100 oil!
Well, this pretty much has to end in a dollar collapse, right?
A policy that gives any amount of money to ordinary people in the hope it will help bankers is infinitely preferable to a policy that gives any amount of money to bankers in the hope it will help ordinary people.
In parliamentary systems, there is most likely a Labor Party, so if that's most important to you, at least you have a voice. Not in the US. Another reason why there has never been a black female Senator, although black females are about 7% of the population.
All a matter of perspective. What good is labor without businesses to employ them?
Are you talking unions? Unions represent less than 8% of the total private workforce, whereas small businesses employ more than half the entire workforce.
Speaking of representing the "little guy", have you ever paid attention to the Democratic Party Convention? They came to LA a while back, and the "Tale of Two Cities" theme was never more apparent in the way they treated their own people. At Staples Center the corporate big-wigs rode separate elevators to the private, luxury-box-accessible VIP level so as not to have to associate with the union-heavy party faithful that populated the convention floor.
Can I ask a question: I'm a little surprised how little attention the ACORN videos have gotten. Granted, they are a bit amateurish, but 4 ACORN offices around the country are busted for giving advice on tax evasion, prostitution (including international child prostitution!), and money laundering. One even threatens to outright kill somebody. It's quite blatant, actually (google it if you are interested - it's a nice followup of EHP's link yesterday showing the ignorant rednecks from the phony tea party rally).
Is it just that 4 ACORN offices is only a small fraction of the national total? I would have to agree that not all ACORN members can be that corrupt, but I'd say those videos would be enough to establish that ACORN doesn't police itself or at least thinks of itself as above the law.
So, before people start lambasting me as a right-wing loon, I'm just as hard on the Fox idiots (I'm very surprised that Fox was the one to break this particular story and I have to at least wonder if they contrived it up somehow). And I really don't think Obama, who I view as honest but possibly naive, had anything whatsoever to do with the corruption at ACORN.
What good is labor without businesses to employ them?
what good is business without labor to support them? Why should labor not share in the profits of their labor?
Why do unions only represent 8% of the workforce? Check the rulings of the NLRB (Presidential appointments) since 1980, which have been more powerful than the Supreme Court in their effect upon the economy.
I understand your concern barfly, but the Dems primarily represent the interests of big government, while the GOP primarily represents the interests of big corporations. Just to keep it interesting they take turns switching it up a little. Both constituencies were anathema to our founding fathers.
The little guy who is a conservative or a liberal with a strong political world view should be afraid of them both.
Obviously, we were wrong on Iraq. We've failed in Afghanistan and will exit humiliated in 5-8 years (after one of the next two presidential elections). The government at a federal and state level is trying to raid private health care to help pay for it's obligations. Banks played loose and fast and we pay the consequences. We will never have a real immigration policy as one side loves to beat the other over the head with it. And obviously, Cap and Trade is a funding mechanism for the federal government.
Unfortunately, this is as good as it gets when it comes to governing. The less-power these nitwits have the better.
barfly
I think the watershed moment with the ways unions are perceived in this country came when the flight controllers went on strike in the early 80s
and President Reagan broke that union, plus the baseball strike and the NFL strike of their 'unions' ... it might help if associations that are collections of uniquely gifted individuals call themselves by a different name
w, cap and trade is a funding mechanism for the banks. It's just another stock market to them. If the government simply wanted revenue or to restrict carbon use, a straight carbon tax would be far less complicated. It's all about the vig for WS.
Weather Helm, not to be tinfoil, or anything, but what would prevent these irregularities being anything other than disingenuous plants to discredit the ACORN organisation? ACORN has made a point of dismissing, quite publicly, anyone found in contravention of their rules. Is there not the possibility of a disinformation campaign going on with these reports? An organization under extreme fire by the right for many years might deserve a little scepticism as to charges made against them in the media. That said, the milieu in which they mix might admit of a few "bad apples", but should they be allowed to discredit the whole organisation, even if the reports should turn out to be true?
Here's an example of why the ACORN story isn't getting any traction....
An undercover video reportedly filmed in the San Bernardino office for the Association of
Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) was recently released on the Internet.
The film depicts a worker talking about her past involvement in prostitution and the alleged selfdefense
killing of her former husband.
The San Bernardino Police Department is investigating the claims made regarding the homicide.
From the initial investigation conducted, the claims do not appear to be factual. Investigators
have been in contact with the involved party’s known former husbands, who are alive and well.
The investigation is ongoing and anyone with further information is asked to contact the Police
Department’s Homicide Division at (909) 384-5615.
They came into her office fooling with her and making up stories; she decided to have some fun in return; they edited the video to try to make her deadpan humor look serious, cutting out the bits that even Fox viewers would realize were jokes.
Duke, absolutely, the Unions troubles began with Reagan and the flight controllers. Subsequent appointments to the NLRB (National Labor Relations Board) only accelerated the decline of the Unions power, to the delight of many who otherwise benefited from prior union gains. The whole sordid story makes me sick, especially the glee with which the unions were basically destroyed, to the detriment of all of us since. If you could make a documentary to this effect, it would be a great service to labor, although a total loss to your budget. Nobody cares.
'Twas Obama that busted the UAW. Labor made it clear that they were going to give up on the Dem's, so he's gone pop a little. Just today he riled up the AFL-CIO. But he loves to speak power to truth.
yogi, please speak clearly, and maybe even slowly, for those of us who are easily confused. Obama busting the UAW? Gone pop(ulist?) Speak power to truth?
He voted for TARP, but no bailout for GM, so they can break their contracts with the union, but no clawback of banker bonuses. I think it was the Teamsters who said fuck you if no public option in health care. So he put the tariffs on Chinese tires, which the Steelworkers supposedly requested, although not too loudly, because it will never stick.
Today (I just watched it on C-Span) he made a campaign style speech to the AFL-CIO, voice rising through applause.
But he says whatever the audience wants to hear, hasn't done thing one to reform Wall Street, and has quite a high opinion of himself. Maybe that's necessary to become President of the US, but it doesn't mean I have to respect him for it.
barfly,
funny you should say that cause back in '84 I worked briefly for a woman who produced for the "American Playhouse" a drama about the southern
blacks who came up from the South to work in the Chicago slaughterhouses in the '20s, it was called The Killing Floor (1985).
I didn't last on that production, I was basically an unpaid intern and the woman producer I worked for was hell on wheels.
Never looked at documentaries again. Although, in the last 5 years they have had a re-surgence.
... that wasn't the first toe stuck in those waters. I took a job again as an unpaid intern to work for this 'genius' film editor (that's what 2 of his staff whispered to me) who was getting a lot of TV work... my first day on the job I was an hour late - can't remember if I mixed up the address - and got axed on the spot by the so called genius... said he was giving me a good lesson in the 'biz'... what a pompous arrogant prick he was (had that happened 12 years later after my good Hoosiers manners had been worn off by NYC I would've punched him ... I really hate it when people ask you to work for free and don't even offer you lunch money or at the very least subware fare)...
sorry 1 Currency, LawyerLiz, MLM and some guy I've never heard of .... your names ended up in my IGNORE list....
must be cause I use the Horizontal scroll bar a lot and I must hit it IGNORE ...
had Barfly not mentioned
1 Currency I would not have known... I wonder where you had gone....
there's actually a bug? I asked Coop to move the MouseOver or MouseClick event for Ignore maybe closer to profile area.. every week I find new people on my list, I'm someone who never even put Jas on the list ... just eyeball across it ....
the good news is that not only do I have the first line of my novel written which was started in November of '86 but I also have the last line written, the
bad news is now I have to fill in the other 340 pages
since it involves many well known early 20th century figures (Lenin, Stalin, Henry James, Teddy Roosevelt, et al) it involved a lot of research over the years at the NY Public library ... first it was a biography based on one man, and then his sister proved equally famous and then it transformed into a screenplay and then back into a historical thriller that begins in 1901 and ends in '54 ...
actually, I have a far amount of it written ... the bones of it let's say and the key to it as to any thriller is the twist and I hope I can keep the reader misdirected long enough so the surprise ending is just that... if I were to pitch it as a movie I'd say it's JFK meets Reds meet Boys from Brazil...
I realized that all the people who I wondered "How are they making it?" are no longer "making it." I think this recession has gone on long enough that peoples resources are spent.
Earlier this morning, Morning Joe's Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski were joined by Fortune Magazine Managing Editor Andrew Serwer and our own co-founder/editor-in-chief Arianna Huffington in Carlsbad, California at the Fortune Magazine Most Powerful Women Summit to talk about how Wall Street has fared in the age of bailouts.
Asked about Goldman Sachs and their post-TARP fortunes, Serwer used a pretty telling metaphor:
SERWER: I mean, it's amazing to me that as we recover, you know, come out of this financial crisis, you know, you'd expect a company like Goldman Sachs maybe things are improving, make a little money. But they have a record quarter. In other words, they made more money in this three month period than they ever had in any other--
SCARBOROUGH: [archly] But they just made some good guesses, right?
SERWER: Well, I don't know if it's okay or not, but I think what happened is that the government has telegraphed to Wall Street, not only Goldman Sachs but the other firms what it was doing, what was going on, what the program was, and so, essentially, it's like telling a Goldman Sachs, "Hey, put your money on 32 Black" at the casino, at the roulette wheel. And the thing spins and lo and behold, where does it end up, Joe?
SCARBOROUGH: 32 Black?
SERWER: 32 Black.
That's a pretty significant statement from the Managing Editor of a magazine that's going to have Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein present the "Goldman Sachs & Fortune Global Women Leaders Award" at this very Summit. And it's hard to ignore the fact what Serwer describes is a risk-free system of wealth accumulation that bears no real working resemblance to the thing we know as "capitalism."
Remember back to the 2008 campaign, when so many people worried about "wealth redistribution?" Turns out the worry was very real, but the worriers themselves are all making out pretty well!
just noticed that CR was mentioned on Krugman's Blog... Kudos to Bill!
sometimes I read the comments and noticed one by a guy named Eisenstein:
it ended with the following:
This will take time but I remind that we are undenialbly better off than we were 100 years ago in spite of what conservatives say. I don’t want to poop in a little shed in the back yard, die from an infected stubbed toe or have to cut wood to keep warm again...
...
IMO that's an honest list if there ever was one!
I like the real-world stories folks post here and this is just one more. My wife and I rent a modest 1BR in DC despite having very good and stable jobs. We started looking at real estate in April 2006 and, when we found out we were approved for 500k in no more than 5 minutes using just our social security numbers, we didn't bite- we ran. Fast forward a year and we came back to the real estate idea, subsequently working with and firing six real estate agents who kept saying "now is the time to buy." Fast forward two years (to the spring of 2009), with the prices for what interests us having fallen 20-25%, but stuck in gear largly due to the tax incentive and false sense of hope driven by rising stock prices. We're very motivated to buy something but have been very wary of the prices and what will happen a) after the tax incentive expires, b) interest rates rise, c) unemployment and foreclosures keep rising (we see short sales and foreclosures now in neighborhoods we woudn't have imagined them in). Our current outlook is to wait until the winter for the next severe leg down in prices and public perception of the future. We see others in our situation pulling the trigger on buying a home, but it just doesn't make sense to us. Knowing it sounds egotistical, we are the folks the government should be shaping policies around, not the types of operators who got us all into this mess to begin with (including plenty of middle class dopes).
My perspective is that middle class home affordability should be the social goal. I fully support the 20% downpayment rule, because I know it would drive prices down by another 20% or so, which is where they need to be to make sense anyway. I realize the economic trauma that further price declines will cause, but it's both necessary and ineviatble in my view, so why not get on with it? it's the same thing to me as a) losing weight by eating less calories than you use (painful and traumatic for many, but necessary, inevitable, get on with it).
In my quest to put forth the question of whether the auto-bailouts were Constitutional, I've only found one roadblock.
I'll need help in formatting legal documents. I've never written a document where I had to put the footnotes in-text at the bottom of the page they appears, maybe I have but it's been a long way. I also would need help on formatting the margins. Otherwise, I believe I understand everything I need to get this issue in front of the Supreme Court when they consider Indiana v. Chrysler. I don't care if they read and throw away my arguments; its important that we get this issue in front of them.
Neither Chrysler nor Indiana Pension funds are going to put forth the Constitutional, arguments of whether Treasury crossed the line. Furthermore no one is going to challenge the fact that Bush plainly stated his intent to violate the will of Congress.
Interesting arguments; I hope I can get them in paper, and jump through the hoops needed to submit in time...
Rush hour traffic in my neighborhood in downtown Chicago almost disappeared when gasoline prices skyrocketed and remained sparse during the meltdown last year. Recently the traffic congestion rose to the precrash levels. Also my trading business was way off for the first six months of this year and it has recently picked up quite a bit but is still below last year's levels.
Two architects I know lost their jobs 9 months ago and one just landed two small projects. Green shoots for sure...
Crisis Pays! Lehman: Barclays got $8.2 billion windfall from sale
| Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc said on Tuesday that Barclays Capital Inc got a $8.2 billion "windfall profit" from excess assets it took control of in the fire sale of Lehman's U.S. brokerage business a year ago.
KABUL (Reuters) - As many as a third of votes cast for Afghan incumbent Hamid Karzai in last month's presidential election are suspect and must be checked for fraud, the head of a European Union election observer mission said on Wednesday.
The announcement by the largest foreign observer team in Afghanistan suggesting fraud on a massive scale came hours before authorities were due to issue a preliminary final tally expected to show Karzai with enough votes to win in a single round.
Trying to predict the future 12 months from now, is like trying to figure in late 1914 when WW1 will be over, or what the map of Europe would look like in a year's time, in late 1939?
We are in the midst of a war, a financial war. The combatants on all sides pretty much have the same technology at their fingertips, the printing press to create money out of thin air, and computer blips signifying wealth.
Apparently, none of you have actually gone hungry before. It used to happen all the time.
I've gone hungry and so has my family. I come from a long line of hungry people. We would rather have gone hungry than ask a third party to pick our neighbor's pocket. Enjoy your smugness as you advocate "giving" other peoples' money away.
There is anything left to debate?
He wrote on his blog: “Thank you very much, suckers!”
Looks like a big fat "Nope" to me!
..the players are assembling, final touches on the make-up, throats being cleared...
If this performance is anything like a Noh performance, I better get settled in early, be prepared to be there all day, and know that I won't understand any of it.
At least the instrumentals and vocals are enjoyable...
Darth Vader: Obi-Ben is here. The Farce is with him.
I was thinking about buying my first house, but then I realized the tax credit is inflating the price of all starter homes by around $40k. ($8k credit times 4:1 typical leverage, assuming a 20% down payment.)
So I decided to wait until it expires.
I read the info and with the way that the system has been so effed with intervention, how can I believe any of the numbers used?
Akin to having an altimeter that says 10000 feet but it really looks like 3000 feet, so what the hell. Let's go with the looks and screw the altimeter.
Nemo:
I hope that you brought a good book.
Let's get it over with. Debt jubilee. Seriously.
To follow up on Lothar's point, why don't they just give me some worthless dollars so I can pay off my worthless liability and call it even?
"recipients would have to show they were part of another household"
CR, I know you are trying to help, in the way that economists try, but checking that little fact creates a loophole that a fleet of trucks can drive through. Once again, those who lie and cheat and steal will get the best deal. We've had enough of that.
Nemo is exactly right. This just inflates home prices for everyone (which is what it is really intended to do), and by a lot more than the tax credit. When you factor in all the buyers' reactions to higher prices, the benefit of the tax credit is further reduced.
Zandi (at Moody's) is little more than a mouthpiece for the NAR / banks, and everyone else who bought into the bubble, and he wants more and more bailouts in order to be proven right. He has no credibility.
Is CR proposing a tax break for divorce?
"An incentive for new household formation (for people that were part of another household for the last year or two) would be much less expensive, would be more targeted (recipients would have to show they were part of another household) and would reduce the excess inventory of all housing units. "
What, offer a tax credit for first and last month's rent? Rental assistance? I'm not being entirely facetious.
I must admit that it would be tempting if they upped the credit to $15K or more.
I have been restructuring things to reduce my AGI this year in case a really tasty handout comes along and I can find a way to use it.
I'm not even going to feel guilty about it. If the government wants to play games, why shouldn't I play along? Why shouldn't anyone?
Okay, I'll bite. How do you define "another household?"
Isn't every renter part of another household? As opposed to "one's own household?"
Debt jubilee.
-that has about as much chance happening as Lewis being indicted.
I'd like to see a "Happy Days" type of sitcom in thirty years reflecting on this time period. The lead character is nicknamed "Ponzie".
And Arnold's is run by Ben Bernanke.
...why shouldn't I play along?
Oh no. The zombie horrors are attacking sm_landlord!
sighs
He has become one of them.
Dean Baker finally bought a house?
That must signal something.
And Zandi?
He's just about the last guy anyone deciding housing policy should be listening to...
I think it's called "Arrested Development".
"He has become one of them. "
Must have brainz..... Must have brainz....
There'll be no debt jubilee. And TPTB will smack down anybody who promotes active default of their credit cards.
The answer is simply refusing to use them and over time, eliminating the profits for the card companies.
And somehow, I expect that the average joe will figure out a way to get around the nonsense but it's going to take time.
Mark Zandi can't be taken seriously anymore. I used to have some respect for him, not anymore. He is a pig eating at the trough, as are most people anyway closely related to the housing and mortgage industry. It is pretty disgusting the stuff I hear and see everyday. Most people in the industry are more than happy sucking from the government teat.
For a totally OT post, this is a sign of recovery, isn't it?
Gov. Kaine asks feds for unemployment loan | WSLS 10
i bought a house, then lost my job. what's the tax credit for that?
Must have brainz..... Must have brainz....
More like: Credtz... Must have credtz... Bailoutz... BAILOUTZ...
There's no question Bernanke and Bernanke-ism is becoming a combination of a national joke and a lightning rod of anger and frustration. Govt. handouts and dependence just leads to more of the same. It's already becoming part of the national fabric, the way people plan, think and make decisions.
Bernanke used to posture about the importance of sound fiscal policy, government restraint, etc. Now, he doesn't even bother.
Most of my debt belongs to TBTF, but I still plan on paying it off asap. I just question the sanity of that with all I see around me, including a convo I had with someone today who I never would have expected to be in the category of "receiving calls all day long" for debt without the cash to pay obligations.
It's creeping upward.
ghost:
Why even bother calling it a loan? VA's budget problems are as well known as CA's problems, and their ability to repay any Federal loan is just political theater. Why not ask for some TARP money? It worked for the auto guys.
Better yet, why is the Gov'r even asking? Are the congresscritters of VA not having their phones blow up daily about unemployed folks and their plights?
Arrested Development - Full Episodes and Clips streaming online for free - Hulu
Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research called the credit “a questionable redistributive policy” from renters to home buyers, but said that he used it himself when he bought a house.
He wrote on his blog: “Thank you very much, suckers!”
I was, and remain, a huge Baker fan. I was, and remain, a renter, too. Rents even here in Denver, where we had very little housing bubble, still sit measurably below comparable monthly nuts for ownership, and they're currently declining.
I feel terrible saying this, particularly because he's been a champion for honesty in the press and good treatment for the impoverished, but here's one sucker hoping that that fcker eats his words this time due to further drops in housing prices. This country does not need more grossly unfair redistributive policies that only harm the poor and middle class -- disproportionately renters -- further.
Math is hard! So if 2m extra buyers of whom 350k were additional, cost $15b, and only one in 6 needed the incentive, 5 in 6 didn't, which means the gov spent $12.45b getting 350k purchases which in themselves cost $2.55b or so of public money.
$12.45b went on stuff that would have been bought anyway at a price higher than it should have been?
This is an isolated incidence of gross stupidity, surely?
C
Look. This isn't about more homeowners. This is and always has been about more recoverable debt.
In most areas are we even talking apples to apples comparisons between rents and owning? This ain't Europe after all. There are ridiculously few protections for renters here.
"This is an isolated incidence of gross stupidity, surely? "
BWAHaHaHaHahahahaha....
Where's Neil?
"Look. This isn't about more homeowners. This is and always has been about more recoverable debt. "
Bingo.
Any of these measures focused on the housing and mortgage markets are meant for one thing - to bail out the banks.
Well, I think many of us a little ticked at yet more (of our) money going to the wrong place. And even the arguments that all that money is doing more good than harm, because it's keeping more people at work, are looking threadbare. After all, we could just give more money to unemployed people, or engage them to clean our streets and fix up our parks and all sorts of really useful things. But no, we've decided that throwing tens of thousands of dollars at buyers of homes is a better way to reduce unemployment. Who are they trying to fool? Do they think we are all utter morons?
But we all know that the deal is done, the fix is in, and the tax credit will be continued, after a short pause, and it may well be expanded. Where's my blood pressure medication again?
Here is a more effective tax credit:
Ah come on CR. I was thinking about having my own "thank you suckers" moment when the upped it next year to 15k.
patientrenter, wouldn't you rather have more people paying taxes than not?
but the lovely couple used the tax credit to buy furniture, thus stimulating the economy...
I think the tax credit should only be given to people who put 20% down (before the credit).
If you pay cash for the house, you should get 5% back.
Reward the low leverage investors. Despite what a lot of people with $ involved tell you, what you really need are low leverage buyers.
Great Daily Show today.
Jason Jones is @ the Az Capital building, which Az wants somebody to buy for $735 Million and lease it back to them, because they are desperate for money, and this Az Senator tells him that the state needs the money urgently this year, and Jason Jones says, "yeah, but what building are you going to sell next year?"
She had no answer.
I am particularly annoyed at the moment because I just signed off on my 2008 tax returns today. Six figures down the tube at an effective rate of about 42% state and federal. Not counting sales, property, and other taxes.
I want some brainz now.
I love the idea of taxpayers subsidizing investors with a $15,000 tax credit to buy investment property.
Why don't we throw in a $1000 tax credit to stock market investors for every $10,000 worth of shares they buy?
"Look. This isn't about more homeowners. This is and always has been about more recoverable debt."
I respect your perspicacity, RD, but I disagree with you here. Certainly bailing out the lenders and lending institutions is a very large motive for the PTB, but there are tens of millions of homeowners, maybe as many as a hundred million households, who are counting on holding onto the gains from prior home price appreciation to bail them out from a lifetime of saving very little. And they vote. And that does matter to Congressmen, along with the big checks from the big investors.
Maybe I should put it another way, so like the gov spent $12.45b when it didn't need to, during a time of fiscal crisis, rocketing national debt, and a market for sovereign paper that is characterized by neither friends nor deep pockets any more?
And those thusly incentivized into buying a house, when they would not otherwise have done so, bought at a higher price, from many of the same lenders who crashed the industry in the first place, and who may yet have difficulty meeting payments due to issues with other credit obligations, rising structural costs in the household balance sheet, newly aggressive local fiscal authorities and a declining labour market?
Just stop me if I'm missing the point here...
C
"Reward the low leverage investors. Despite what a lot of people with $ involved tell you, what you really need are low leverage buyers. "
I agree 100%. But I can tell you, that is not the thought process in the "lending" industry. The mortgage "lenders" are lenders in name only - they are basically brokering loans for the government. And they want access to high LTV options like the FHA, in order to keep their mortgage pipelines full.
When it comes to loans they keep on their balance sheets? Minimum 30% downpayment.
all sorts of really useful things. But no, we've decided that throwing tens of thousands of dollars at buyers of homes is a better way to reduce unemployment. Who are they trying to fool? Do they think we are all utter morons?
Why wouldn't they. What has 95% of the population done to disprove this? The CR community is not at all reflective of the general population. Most people want and need to be lied to as the personal effort to deal with reality is too much.
Lewis filched on Bernanke, Summers, Paulson, and Geithner, so I think there's a pretty high probability that he really will be indicted. Bear Stearns refused to play ball on LTCM. The financial world is vindictive and petty.
Or, some even better credits:
Recurring themes: build less, remove leverage.
I want some brainz now.
"patientrenter, wouldn't you rather have more people paying taxes than not?"
Well, it depends on the real activity associated with the various choices. If we create a tax on human slavery, and then permit slavery, we have increased our taxes. But we are not better off. Look at the real activity, not the dollars.
Anecdote: I met up tonight with several acquaintances in the late 20s - early 30s age range. Home-buying is all the rage among this group. You would think it was 2005. Two people have just closed on properties (one townhouse, one condo), while two others are actively looking. I tried to explain that once the FTHB credit goes away, demand should drop considerably and more than make up for the subsidy in a decline in prices. What's important to these buyers though is that the credit is up front and adds to the very small down payments they are able to muster.
So we get the second round of ~0% down payment buyers, but we're expecting a much better outcome this time. This tax credit is for real estate agents and banks only.
barfly (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 8:29 pm
reply ignore user
I want some brainz now.
- I went to the store today to buy some brains, and I saw Democrat brains @ $2.00/ lb., Libertarian brains @ $4.00/ lb., and Republican brains @ $7.00/lb. I asked why the Republican brains were so expensive. The guy says, " Do you know how many Republicans it takes to get a pound of brains?".
I've heard that bush brains are known as the Kobe beef of brains. Incredibly expensive for such a little amount.
"Six figures down the tube at an effective rate of about 42% state and federal."
I remember when I used to live in CA. My state taxes could pay for a new car each year.
Now that I live in TX, I've been trying to figure out what government services I'm not getting. I am really struggling to come up with something.
would be more targeted (recipients would have to show they were part of another household)
Nice idea CR, but the "family values" people would shoot this to pieces: It encourages: 1. Divorce, 2. Kicking Kids/elderly parents out.
Edit: Badger beat me to the punch, above.
if ((tax credit - down payment ) > (first months rent + security deposit)) { buy }
condos going at auction all over the southeast - cheap. some hole in memphis just sold almost all of 30-35 units downtown.
freaking war zone and speculators had to have picked them up. i don't believe any sane person who says they want to live in downtown memphis. or detroit, or... stop me now.
"When it comes to loans they keep on their balance sheets? Minimum 30% downpayment"
"So we get the second round of ~0% down payment buyers, but we're expecting a much better outcome this time. This tax credit is for real estate agents and banks only."
And existing homeowners, because it props up home prices.
Down payments, guys, downpayments are the key. I feel like one-note Johnny, but it really is the keystone to a sounder home finance system.
How come this didn't pass the first time? If they couldn't get it through before you would think it would be nearly impossible to do it now being the economy is recovering. Repubs are ready to rake Obama over the coals about raising the debt ceiling and argue for $15k credit for anyone?
Well, it depends on the real activity associated with the various choices. If we create a tax on human slavery, and then permit slavery, we have increased our taxes. But we are not better off. Look at the real activity, not the dollars.
-this sounds like,... I don't know what this sounds like.
"What's important to these buyers though is that the credit is up front and adds to the very small down payments they are able to muster.
So we get the second round of ~0% down payment buyers, but we're expecting a much better outcome this time. This tax credit is for real estate agents and banks only. "
I honestly can't blame people for taking advantage of no money down buying. So you go underwater? Exercise the put option. this is the lesson we have taught people. Can't blame them for responding to the incentive.
What would be REALLY dumb would be to put a lot of equity in a property.
"if ((tax credit - down payment ) < (first months rent + security deposit)) { buy } "
Yup, that is a pretty good equation. Actually it should be downpayment - tax credit I think, but your point is well taken. In words, if your skin in the game from buying is less than your skin in the game from renting, go for it. You too could be living rent free for 24 months.
"wouldn't you rather have more people paying taxes than not?"
The larger the group you would like to pay taxes, the simpler it should be. Complex taxes can conceivably make sense for large corporations, but not for typical individuals.
Hey, I do heavy duty financial analysis for a living. Sometime my personal income and client success comes from knowing the code. I would still be quite happy to pay slightly more in taxes if it was really simple, and the IRS couldn't miscalculate or make up strange rules.
Here's a set of questions to ponder. How long did it take you to fill out your social security tax return last year? Your sales tax return? How about your property tax return? Ever been audited on your gasoline taxes?
Yeah, it really doesn't have to be complicated.
"-this sounds like,... I don't know what this sounds like"
... a very good, rational, and irrefutable argument. Thanks!
"I remember when I used to live in CA. My state taxes could pay for a new car each year. "
That car ended up being driven by a state bureaucrat rather than you. They have this nice program here where the bureaucrats get to take the state cars home. Allegedly they account for personal use. Alrighty then.
patientrenter, I'm serious. It sounds like doubletalk to me.
poic - it used to be an old construction workers joke, about laborers, carpenters, and ironworkers. Pick your poison.
":Down payments, guys, downpayments are the key. I feel like one-note Johnny, but it really is the keystone to a sounder home finance system. "
You are SO right. Why is that so confusing to people?
All this talk about what to do about Fannie and Freddie, what structure mortgage finance should have, ignores one simple solution - require larger downpayments, and it won't matter what the structure is.
Check out the performance of Fannie's guarantee book. they break it down into "credit enhanced" and non credit enhanced. Credit enhanced is basically loans over 80 LTV that require mortgage insurance.
non-credit enhanced loans have a serious delinquency rate of 2.5% or so. Not too bad considering the environment.
Credit enhanced (read: high LTV) loans? 10.25%. Why would we want to encourage that kind of performance?
http://www.fanniemae.com/ir/pdf/monthly/2009/073109.pdf
"I honestly can't blame people for taking advantage of no money down buying. So you go underwater? Exercise the put option. this is the lesson we have taught people. Can't blame them for responding to the incentive."
I agree with this. In my mind, now could be a good time to buy if you A) would be happy living in the property you're buying indefinitely and can easily afford the mortgage or B) you are willing to walk away as soon as you go underwater. However, the people I know who are buying are operating under C) housing prices are bottoming, and if I can make the stretch now to buy a house in a very questionable neighborhood, I'll be rewarded by gentrification and appreciation five years from now.
"Hey, I do heavy duty financial analysis for a living. Sometime my personal income and client success comes from knowing the code. I would still be quite happy to pay slightly more in taxes if it was really simple, and the IRS couldn't miscalculate or make up strange rules."
Same here. The problem is our system of governance. For some reason, Congress has become a system where politicians trade votes and small amounts of money for political favors, including tax breaks. I don't think it's quite as bad in Germany, or the UK, or many other developed democracies. There's something about our system that allows Congress to be worse than others in this respect.
I am a renter ready to take up arms agains the NAR and homebuilders association on this issue.
This will not help a recovery
This will put its in greater debt
This will disincentivize saving responsibly for a first home (like me) which will futher degrade household finiancial responsibility and will on a large scale evenatually hurt the US credit rating.
(202) 224-3121 Tell your senators and congressman what you think too.
"However, the people I know who are buying are operating under C) "
Yeah, but if B happens, they still get to use the free put option, and walk away with no losses.
Ohhhh, I get it now. It's more effective a pass-through to the banks by spending even $15b because you then hand the banks 2m purchasers of future liabilities to the owners backed by the full force of law, and the assets and income streams that can be booked in full by the banks, thereby making them healthy again.
Why didn't they just say it was cheaper handing out $15b to banks that way and the public pays the rest? Much simpler.
Can foreigners get in on this? I feel like a swapline that I can arb the sh!t out of in carry between three jurisdictions whose tax authorities don't talk to each other. Uh, yeah, sure I'm a bank. Well, bank-ish anyway. Systemically bank-ish. Promise.
C
"I don't think it's quite as bad in Germany, or the UK, or many other developed democracies. There's something about our system that allows Congress to be worse than others in this respect."
I think the difference is the Parliamentary system versus the two party system. Our founding fathers were not very intelligent in that regard. A Parliamentary system creates much more opportunity for old parties to be dissolved and new parties created. Look at Canada (and I know there are a lot of Canadians on this board) - the Progressive Conservative party, which held power for much of the 90s, was pretty much totally wiped out, and was reborn years later.
Under this kind of system, both the Dems and Repubs would probably be dissolved after the next election.
"Why didn't they just say it was cheaper handing out $15b to banks that way and the public pays the rest? "
The (taxpaying) public is paying the $15 billion. This way, they get to leverage the $15 billion (that's just the tax credit), with the rest (many hundreds of billions) coming from... the FHA. It's all coming from taxpayers, but filtered and arranged to make it all look like it's coming from somewhere else. It's the US govt's 2009 Rube Goldberg bubble home price support machine.
That's why they call it progressive taxation.
Every decision revolves around saving the current banking system. Whatever it takes and whatever the long term consequences. Save the current credit system at all costs.
Every decision so far makes perfect sense IMO based on the above.
"the two party system. Our founding fathers were not very intelligent in that regard"
Forgive my ignorance of US history. But surely the founders didn't actually build a two-party system, with only Republicans and Democrats. Didn't the system have to evolve for a while to get to be a 2-party system?
"Every decision revolves around saving the current banking system."
Then why not just pay the banks for their losses?
I agree that bailing banks is a huge priority for the PTB, but bailing existing homeowners' dreams of saving their accumulated prior home price gains is also huge.
"Every decision revolves around saving the current banking system."
Why not just buy all of the outstanding shares?
Looks like party systems hour has begun. Not my forte.
nytol
C
"Every decision revolves around saving the current banking system."
Then why not just pay the banks for their losses?
Because the government would have been thrown out on their asses if they had proposed 2t ++ to the banks 2 years ago. Even the sheeple and our foreign creditors have their limits.
The only way to do it is by stealth, drip by drip. Which ends up costing more in the end and results in a much more painful economic downturn. But that is the political reality.
One thing is for certain: the housing market wouldn't survive without the FHA, and now the question becomes can the FHA survive?
Instead of all these tax breaks and government aids, I got an idea: how about people buying houses the old fashion way, you know, when you could just simply afford it without any gimmick.
Forgive my ignorance of US history. But surely the founders didn't actually build a two-party system, with only Republicans and Democrats. Didn't the system have to evolve for a while to get to be a 2-party system?
they may not have "built" it . but it already existed in the form of the Whigs, and the Tories, The Whigs being the functional equivalent of the Democrats, and the Tories being equivalent to the Republicans ( or traditionalists, meaning Royalists), of their day.
"Looks like party systems hour has begun. Not my forte.
nytol"
Probably a wise choice. I am curious, since I do not know the history, or the particular structural mechanisms that cause us to have more a complicated tax code for fairly ordinary folks than most other nations with similar economic activity and education levels. But stirring politics is dangerous.
Rob has it right, sorry patientrenter.
I'm not saying this because of some anti banker rant. It is just a fact. Without supporting residential real estate values, the large money center banks in the USA and worldwide were headed for certain insolvency (instead of their probable insolvency even at present).
Without recoverable debt the TBTF banks were dead meat. They knew it we knew it TPTB knew it heck even j6p knew it.
Now we can argue as to why TBTF institutions got their way, but it is not even a debatable point that the primary purpose of the housing stimulus was to recapitalize the banks by making large portions of their toxic debt slightly less toxic.
M, are there ever any protests outside the National Association of Realtors' building in DC?
Expedia Says Hotel Prices to Decline Through 2010 (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Expedia Says Hotel Prices to Decline Through 2010
no kidding. i was recently traveling for business, and there are hotels everywhere it seems, catering to business travelers who no longer show up.
FHA plus monetized $8k tax credit has been up to 80% of the market in some areas. This is no money down all over again. 20% of these loans originated since the housing crisis began are now in default or foreclosure. Wonder when the nitwits in DC figure out without skin in the game people walk. If someone doesn't have 20% to put down they are not qualified to buy a house. Period
It came into existence even before the first elections, but it really grew in prominence after the first generation or so. Washington devoted extensive time in his farewell address to warning against political parties and enumerating their dangers to the ship of state. Unfortunately, when you construct a system in which they're a winning strategy, all the wise words in the world are but so many bubbles in that ocean...
Montas,
Do you mean supporting actual real estate values? Booked values? MBS values?
"Without supporting residential real estate values, the large money center banks in the USA and worldwide were headed for certain insolvency (instead of their probable insolvency even at present)."
Montas ankle, if the govt had simply paid the banks directly for their losses, they would be solvent again. And that is a lot simpler than flooding the housing market with FHA money, and FNM money, and FRE money, and having the Fed buy MBS, etc.
Well said poic
some investor guy (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 8:32 pm reply
"Six figures down the tube at an effective rate of about 42% state and federal."
I remember when I used to live in CA. My state taxes could pay for a new car each year.
Exactly.
Every years we send to Sacramento well more than enough for a very nice car.
And what do we get for it?
I like John Maudlin's recent observation:
"I'll leave you with this thought I gleaned from a newsletter from Australia called The Privateer (http://www.the-privateer.com)
'In 1909, the US federal government had an annual budget of $US 0.8 Billion. With this it governed a population of just over 90 million people. The cost of government was about $9 per capita. In 2009, the US federal government has an annual budget of $US 3,550 Billion. With this it governs a population of just over 300 million people. That's a cost of about $11,675 per capita.'
Are we 1200 times better off?"
"One thing is for certain: the housing market wouldn't survive without the FHA, and now the question becomes can the FHA survive?
Instead of all these tax breaks and government aids, I got an idea: how about people buying houses the old fashion way, you know, when you could just simply afford it without any gimmick."
Again, as RD says, it all comes back to the banks. the banks need a continuous stream of new mortgages to feed their origination beasts. Of course, they don't want to hold any of the risk, so they lobby to have the government take all the risk.
The reason I am so pessimistic on the future of the US economy is because we have done nothing to fix the housing finance industry, and I see it every day in my job. There are plenty of people more than happy to originate mortgages, to sell services to those who originate mortgages, to service mortgages, etc., but very few who want to take the default risk on mortgages. They either want to package it up and sell to some sucker, or today, have the taxpayers take it on.
Very few banks have any interest in actually retaining mortgage credit risk. They want to originate and sell, that's it.
"Expedia Says Hotel Prices to Decline Through 2010"
Maybe SM Landlord remembers this. In the 1990s, someone discovered that they could buy a small hotel for much less than a house, and turned it into their personal home.
Are we 1200 times better off?"
+1
"If someone doesn't have 20% to put down they are not qualified to buy a house. Period "
I agree 100%. Again, I see it everyday. Some in the industry claim that people with high FICOs and full documentation perform well even without a large downpayment, but the data from 2006-2007 don't bear that out - these people are defaulting at double-digits rates, maybe not as high as subprime stated income borrowers, but double-digit delinquency rates is unacceptable.
20% down minimum, and we don't have to worry about who retains the credit risk - there won't be much of it.
Patient nope this is simpler
the populace loves a handout but does not notlike to give them to other people.
Nemo is exactly right. This just inflates home prices for everyone (which is what it is really intended to do)
Silly - it isn't intended to help everyone... its intended to help bankers whose collateral just happens to be the s***boxes the 'everyones' live in.
I'd like to see an estimate on what those 1.9 million houses would have sold for without the $8K credit. $10K less? $20K? Great 350,000 new homeowners, of which maybe 40% will default because they've got no skin in the game, but the other 1.55 million homeowners likely got suckered in to overpaying for their houses, or could have gotten a better price with less bailout bucks competition..
"The only way to do it is by stealth, drip by drip. "
I see, my Rube Goldberg money machine. Well, you may be correct, poic and monta's ankle. We should be able to tell with the govt's reaction on CRE. If the govt reacts to CRE in the same way they reacted to RRE, taking actions to save lenders mainly by price supports for the RE itself, instead of winding up or paying off the banks, then you are correct. If they let CRE prices drop with few price supports, then I will keep my theory intact.
"the other 1.55 million homeowners likely got suckered in to overpaying for their houses, or could have gotten a better price with less bailout bucks competition.."
that's the tragedy of it - the foolish marginal buyer hurts everyone. Sure, you could say "well, you could have decided to rent", but is that a solution? To force every rational person to rent, and only the irresponsible buy? No, the solution should be that the irresponsible are kept from owning a house.
the ONLY way to ensure responsibility is to ensure people put down a significant downpayment - 20% at least. if they want to gambling that kind of money, let them. Few will.
Sorry again patient CRE is but a fraction of TBTF debt.
So small banks will fail and CRE will be allowed to fall
"In the 1990s, someone discovered that they could buy a small hotel for much less than a house, and turned it into their personal home."
I live in a property that I own, but it's not a house. Does that tell you anything?
Are we 1200 times better off?"
+1
"the ONLY way to ensure responsibility is to ensure people put down a significant downpayment - 20% at least."
I suspect you know a lot more about loans than I do, ghosface, and yet even from a distance, I feel that you and Markar hit the nail on the head.
"Expedia Says Hotel Prices to Decline Through 2010"
Maybe SM Landlord remembers this. In the 1990s, someone discovered that they could buy a small hotel for much less than a house, and turned it into their personal home.
Microtel Inns will probably be free with a rebate. Can hardly wait.
How about we say if you don't buy a house you're fined $8000.
Welfare for the rich.
@Montas - maybe the TBTF's are up to their eyeballs with a few trillion in swaps bet on the wrong side of CRE, and that's really why they're scared witless about it.
dryfly, heard a sales rep complaining about a hotel placement just last night (the pats won...).
normal reservation got moved and it was a downgrade in property but not the equivalent in value, as it were. he wernt too happy about it.
kicker: boat parts sales. as if that industry is coming back soon. woof.
"How about we say if you don't buy a house you're fined $8000."
I paid at the office.
Tbtf cares not about cre. Just watch. All lipservice.
Yay, more bullshit math!!
I'm guessing that 1909 budget is not in 2009 dollars, so a potentially valid comparison is buried by not using comprable numbers
no extension of tax credit, labor mobility at this point is mire important than the ownership society/debt slavery.
"So small banks will fail and CRE will be allowed to fall"
Yeah, but the evidence accumulates. Honestly, I don't think Barney Frank comes to work every day trying to maximize the return for GS and BoA and other TBTF banks. He wants to make sure that his mostly middle class, homeowning constituents are happy, and he gets some campaign contributions from large pockets, and he does something that satisfies his principles - transferring wealth from wealthy investors and taxpayers to honest hardworking middle class homeowners. There are a lot of motives that have to come together, and get satisfied simultaneously, for someone like that to vote for something. It comes down to votes, and the money to market yourself to the voters. Given a choice between rescuing banks without rescuing homeowners, or rescuing both, someone like that will go every time for the second choice, even if it costs more. Same for most Congressmen.
kicker: boat parts sales. as if that industry is coming back soon. woof.
On the other hand if the guy was into repair parts might be ass kick... parts for new build 'double woof'.
As for hotels... I did a round trip day today - drove about 500 miles & made calls... usually did it as a stay over... instead left early this AM and just now got home... no hotel room & only one meal out. I know - not doing my part to stimulate the economy... maybe they need to give $8000 to spend on hotel rooms [/snark].
1 currency - Don't give the gov't any ideas, since that would be a fine, not a tax, it wouldn't break that no new taxes for the middle class promise. They could just make it an across the board fine for all citizens who actually have savings, or even better, savings OR available limits on their CC's or other lines of credit. Those people should not be hoarding money, but helping to save the economy by spending until they're broke too.
Nemo wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 7:55 pm
I was thinking about buying my first house, but then I realized the tax credit is inflating the price of all starter homes by around $40k. ($8k credit times 4:1 typical leverage, assuming a 20% down payment.)
So I decided to wait until it expires.
Funny, I was informing some of my co-workers of this same logic just the other day, they looked at me like I was an idiot.. Here in PDX the masses are saying we've hit bottom and it's only up from here, pointing to increasing sales as the evidence of the recovery. Funny how they ignore that UE just passed 12%. Going to be an interesting Fall...
patientrenter, please state clearly what your position is.
Lol- I will have to look at that clip!!
We broke and they be stupid!!!
yeah.
Someday this war's gonna end...
custom parts, so you were close.
that's some mileage and hope it went ok. sounds like par for the course.
they're ramming through a convention center here in the midst of all this. total cronyism and makes me ill. no snark at all!
"patientrenter, please state clearly what your position is."
That the govt response to the current financial crisis is driven by two primary motives:
Politicians get votes for satisfying group 2, and money to market themselves successfully to group 2 from group 1 (and maybe future personal money).
Duffman,
The got the "it's only up from here" part right, only (as you note) that pertains to UE and not housing.
Driven by one motive... pols want to keep their job. That's their strategy... the tactics to implement are as follows:
1. Bail out large banks and other financially important organizations, that also happen to be large contributors to political campaigns money to buy votes
2. Bail out existing homeowners who are relying on holding onto their accumulated prior home price gains, ultimately to spend them. the votes that money buys
Edit - say what you will, they aren't dummies.
Patientrenter, thank you. I assume you are against both, for which I can hardly blame you. Sometimes your verbiage confuses me, but that is not your fault.
Patient this is not about motivations
Barney et al have been told that tbtf banks need to be recapitalized
we will not take the steps to wind them down or preprivatize so he and congress believe that they must save the USA b saving the banks. They have been deluded into thinking that artificially inflatng hme prices will help both homeowners (like me) and bankers and this the whole economy.
This seems true but it is not. By inflating home values the debt held and leveraged on the books of tbtf increases in value exponentially. Homeowners and homebuyers are stuck with debt service and do not save for productive uses.
It may seem like a transfer of wealth to the middle class. It is not
Thanks, dryfly, you said it much more clearly and succinctly
"I wouldn't say we were 1200 times better off, but we are somewhat better off,"
"Somewhat"?? At a $9. per person cost vs. $12K per person cost to administer the affairs of the body of states? Safety blanket or not, this is totally obscene, uncalled for, and approximately $11K worth of bullsh** per person.
And you wonder why people like me say "Screw 'Em" and drop out.
I agree, dryfly. I think that Chicago and other machine cities have shown us very thoroughly by this point that the votes can be acquired so long as the money and stiff arms are available.
Dow 25,000 by XMAS 2010 Don't be F'ing Priced Out Of The Jobless Recovery!!!!
U.S. Econ Recovery To Be Vigorous Despite Consensus
ECRI | News | Media Coverage
Achuthan recently told Reuters that a double-dip recession is highly unlikely, and that the United States is poised for a far stronger recovery than many are projecting.
Dump
use 
GET out NOW!!!
@montas, while I'm all for suggesting that congress and senate members are dumb enough to be duped, the cynic in me agrees with patient, and they're playing the game, and in it for the money and power, and too many of them don't give a shit about what it does to their country.
Nobody has a problem with believing that bankers are all in it for the same reason.
There can be no real bailout without realizing J6P in the overpriced box has to get some relief, or the system will keep on wobbling.
CRE can fail- why? Because the investors in it don't vote in mass quantity!!!
Well, I have to get some sleep, but we are only bailing out as little as the folks in DC can get away with.
Realize, that you will never get rich worrying much about the tax consequences of your actions until you make your living off your investments.
One of the funniest comments is that folks complain about how much in taxes they pay- remember, taxes are what you pay to keep the poor from making a society that looks like Brazil. You could live behind concertina wire, with armed guards, sweating if your kids get kidnapped while coming back from a party. Sweating whether or not the government is going to figure out your tax dodge and take almost everything you have, etc...
Not very enticing, is it? Remember, government is what is designed to keep you somewhat sane and somewhat safe.
Feel better now?
Someday this war's gonna end...
BSR - that "safety net" provides you with your VA coverage, don't forget.
Yeah I still suspect the health insurance "fine" was a poison pill. Structure it as a tax credit and Americans can't get it fast enough.
"It may seem like a transfer of wealth to the middle class. It is not"
Well, I agree. I was trying to paint a picture of what justifications a Congressman might have in their own mind. In truth (sorry, guys and gals) if you characterize efforts to keep home prices high as a transfer of wealth from one large group in society to another, it's a transfer to homeowners who bought a long time ago - the baby boomers and earlier generations - from succeeding generations. [I know my fellow boomers hate to hear this, but it is the broad generalization. It's not true in a few areas like dryfly's, where homes cost the same as 30 years ago, adjusted for wage inflation. And there are many individual exceptions.]
.....barfly...........I'd give up my VA Medical coverage for anything close to a sane FedGov.
The adjusted inflation for $9 from 1914 (the earliest calcuator I could find) to 2009 puts the value at approx. $175.
$11,000 is still a pretty impressive increase from $175.
As for what government does, well, read Upton Sinclair's book the Jungle.
There is a lot of harm in the old ways and the old days that is conveniently forgotten.
How about a little typhoid to go with your cholera?
Simplistic arguments for folks who don't like the complex answers?
How much does the imperial overstretch cost in terms of our standard of living?
How much richer would we be as a whole if we didn't fight the world's wars and brushfires?
Someday this war's gonna end...
I know a number of people who have testified before Congress, state legislatures, etc.
On technical topics, most of the legislators do not have a deep or detailed knowledge. This sometimes extends to regulators, even in their areas of specialization.
Over time, less and less legislation is written by senators, congressmen, or state legislators. More is written by staff, lobbyists, think tanks, special interest groups, and other people who are not elected. Especially at the Federal level, fewer and fewer elected officials are reading the full text of bills. You will occassionallly see a bill author who obviously has not read his own bill.
I am probably guilty for steering the conversation to politics, which is a mistake. Some key things about what's happening in the housing market and economy can only be understood by understanding the politics, but it would be nice if there was a way to keep the politics discussion limited to what's necessary to understand the housing stuff. Oh, well.
BSR, believe me, I do not begrudge you your rightful due as a U.S. serviceman, who put his life on the line for his (our) country. I only want you to remember where your benefits come from, and that, sir, is taxes.
"Over time, less and less legislation is written by senators, congressmen, or state legislators. More is written by staff, lobbyists, think tanks, special interest groups, and other people who are not elected. Especially at the Federal level, fewer and fewer elected officials are reading the full text of bills. You will occassionallly see a bill author who obviously has not read his own bill."
That's everywhere. In my last corporate stint, the high execs read nothing but hardcopy PowerPoint presentations. When briefing to decide on major initiatives.
Could it be that our elite is rotting in place?
......There is no hope for this country without a major reboot. Politics has obviously nothing to do with ethics, responsibility and yes, even morals.
Bob, I think it's more like trying to save their arses and it's not working out so well this far. Maybe I'm wrong, though, and I have no issues with being corrected.
That is because the American people used to admire smart people and wanted the smart people to provide the leadership.
Bush proved that has passed- as did Reagan.
Politics has devolved into a show, entertainment like E tv.
Now, the ability to answer questions without a teleprompter and talking points, including complex questions, most likely can lead to better government, or at least a government that understands what it is doing.
The parliamentary system breeds fewer useless idiots.
I could never imagine Bush doing Prime Minister's questions- but I am sure Cheney could.
As for the regulatory capture, that will only recede when the rich- including you- have much less sway over the election system.
Right now it runs on money- but if it runs on populism, the rich are truly screwed again- just like in the 1930s.
Consider that.
Someday this war's gonna end...
WARNING: Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead - The Market Ticker
Heavy stuff
And, it doesn't matter what "Party" you are affiliated with to understand and agree that "lying, cheating, and stealing" are not positive concepts.
" read nothing but hardcopy PowerPoint presentations. When briefing to decide on major initiatives."
There's not much choice, with the time constraints. If you have the right people, then they actually understand a lot more than just the Powerpoint. I know I ask a few other hands-on people about key points in any such decision, and I am familiar with the hands-on work from years ago, so I smell the problems and issues. And there's usually several people like me looking at it. Not all corporations are poorly run.
I, for one, have no problem with bringing politics into the argument. I think it's integral to any discussion of current affairs.
And when somebody finally gets mad enough to put the pols up against the wall?
At the risk of Godwin, that kind of savior is what emerges from this kind of economy, especially when the great middle class gets the shaft.
Argentina is about five minutes away from a Franco right now, and the common folks would welcome safety and stability- at almost any price.
Consider that destiny.
Someday this war's gonna end...
You will occassionallly see a bill author who obviously has not read his own bill.
Occasionally?
BTW - Allen M has it right... there is always a simple answer for a complex problem - invariably that answer is wrong.
You want a simple government then live in a simple society - ours is anything but. The technical, social, economic is all very complex. The political & bureaucratic only mirror those. And just because YOU might want to opt out doesn't mean the complexity goes away... it only goes away when everyone opts out [or is forced out].
"I, for one, have no problem with bringing politics into the argument"
I like to keep it to a bare minimum. For me, it's like adding a very hot pepper to a dish. Sometimes, in moderation, when the dish calls for it, it can help. But use it a lot, and you can only taste the pepper. It overwhelms all the other good flavors.
Many feel that way, and I feel it stifles the debate.
Let me put it to you in this fashion- I know a large state government intimately.
We are fast approaching partial collapse. Does that sound like it is well run?
No.
Now, facing that kind of collapse, and political paralysis, what is the choice of the federal government?
Right now, nothing.
So I guess we wait for the first state government to reach the bankruptcy event horizon.
Now, why are they still dinking around with healthcare in DC?
The problems exposed by this collapse are intensifying, not receding.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"As for hotels... I did a round trip day today - drove about 500 miles & made calls... usually did it as a stay over... instead left early this AM and just now got home... no hotel room & only one meal out. I know - not doing my part to stimulate the economy... maybe they need to give $8000 to spend on hotel rooms"
Funny, if I have to stay overnight somewhere for work and am traveling alone, I usually bid on a hotel that morning from Priceline, the deals you get are incredible (first go to a site like biddingfortravel.com to get the right strategy). I don't have to, I could expense a corporate-rate, but it is the principal - don't overbuild and you won't have to auction off your rooms at 20% of the listed rate.
I like to keep it to a bare minimum.
'Political' - some okay. Hard core partisans please find your way back to Freep or Dkos... please?
Re: "Politics has devolved into a show, entertainment like E tv."
Palin's backers obviously see the reality of being able to use an idiot to convey idiot sound bites to retards and then use the entertainment to drive home a meaningless message that prevents reality from being part of the show.
Funny, if I have to stay overnight somewhere for work and am traveling alone, I usually bid on a hotel that morning from Priceline, the deals you get are incredible (first go to a site like biddingfortravel.com to get the right strategy). I don't have to, I could expense a corporate-rate, but it is the principal - don't overbuild and you won't have to auction off your rooms at 20% of the listed rate.
Priceline doesn't have good deals for Park Rapids Minnesota... not in a place I'd want to stay.
"There's not much choice, with the time constraints. If you have the right people, then they actually understand a lot more than just the Powerpoint."
Apparently we didn't have the right people.
" I feel it stifles the debate"
Fair enough. But we all eat from a common dish here, and it's tough for us bland people if the dish has a lot of pepper.
but it is the principal - don't overbuild
ghostfaceinvestah abandons capitalism.
news at 11.
I like the example in the story, the Myers rushed to buy a condo for $171,000... to get the $8,000 credit. Not enough units are selling so the condo developer dropped price 10%... If only the buyers waited they could have had more.. but they were stupid and spent more. It's cash for clunkers all over.. so many dealers reamed the buyers during the program because the buyers just thought they were getting free money but it was the dealers getting the free money the buyers were just paying too much for a depreciated asset. Most would have been better off selling the clunker and buying outside of the C4C deal time when the dealers were motived.
Off Topic:
I posted the Ventura County home sales part of the Dataquick report with some graphs.
Also I posted a link and graphic from the California Foreclosure Report for August 2009 from ForeclosureRadar.
"Apparently we didn't have the right people."
I don't think the major financial problems we had were caused by a failure to understand Powerpoints, Bob.
@AllenM - When you write about other countries and their problems compared to the US, do you ever wonder if there are people in some of the millennia-old countries looking at the US now, and thinking - "seen them come and go a hundred times before"? They're probably amused by the upstart two centuries plus old superpower.
I have to dump this real estate story here; my apologies for not being on-topic:
The Big Question: Why does Alain Robert climb the world's tallest buildings, and how does he do it?
The Big Question: Why does Alain Robert climb the world's tallest buildings, and how does he do it? -
Profiles, People - The Independent
Because the climber nicknamed "Spiderman" has just scaled the 88-storey, 452-metre (1,483ft) Petronas Towers in Kuala Lumpur, the third tallest building in the world.
Who here is not a hard core partisan, be it Republican, Libertarian, or Democrat? Who among you has no opinions?
" I feel it stifles the debate"
I'd say partisan rants stifle real debate... we've been pretty good here about NOT letting that happen [except for a few months prior to elections - genie gets out once in awhile then].
This is NOT a partisan political blog - CR & tanta made that clear from the get go.
barfly,
Partisan doesn't equate to opinionated.
Who here is not a hard core partisan, be it Republican, Libertarian, or Democrat? Who among you has no opinions?
Having opinions is NOT the same thing as being excessively partisan. Check it or take it to freep or dkos - they love it there. This is NOT a political blog.
Because a dollar = a dollar, you can never separate a housing debate from a debate about military pensions and the risk of war death per capita.
Food stamps are one person's politics and another's economics.
Partisan doesn't equate to opinionated.
It's been 12 months since economic problems went into a higher gear. The economy is no stronger than it was 12 months ago. Substantial government spending and guarantees were issued. Some are already receding, others are scheduled to hit their limits soon without renewal, and more still are a question of when the interest payments become unaffordable. Economic activity at this level in terms of income, employment, and trade is creating a lot of social pressure not only domestically, but internationally. German elections on September 27th, Japan's were on August 30th and appear to have marked a more brutal assessment of reality in economic data reporting. Bair, Geithner, and Obama's neighbor have yet to close on the sale of their homes. Back 2 school sales were a bust, judging by the lack of enthusiastic guidance revisions, the weather and late labor day have expired as excuses. Industrial production bottomed but is headed sideways. Renewed end demand is harder to find than Jimmy Hoffa. Every once in a while politicians fly up a kite of financial system reform. Most days revolve on announcing that the recession is over, and pursuing projects important to political branding. I was wrong about my market timing call evidently. So I would like to ask the question, what will transpire during the next 12 months?
Well, let us discuss the banks role in the failure to regulate, even regulate using laws currently on the books.
SEC- massive failure- madoff, failure to deliver, ineffective supervision of trading systems, including allowing front running and colocation.
CFTC- allows blatant manipulation to keep major players solvent. Makes me wonder who Refco pissed off.
the Fed- why Lehman, and not Bear Sterns?
Why is AIG still alive at all?
Why are derivatives still not effectively offset by capital requirements?
The sheer amount of regulatory failure from the last 28 years is stunning.
The entire system will be regulated, or it will be destroyed, and the new system will once again have adequate regulation.
How is that for the coming choice?
All of Wall Street had better learn to love regulators and fast, or they will not survive.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"Who here is not a hard core partisan, be it Republican, Libertarian, or Democrat?"
I'd say dryfly is not, nor is pavel. I find myself disagreeing with all of the groups fairly often (and I have never voted, or contributed to a party, or worked for one, or really cared much about one) so I consider myself as not even soft core, never mind hard core.
I suppose if you move in social circles that define themselves partly by political groups, then it must be easy to think everyone belongs to one of these "tribes", as I like to call them, but there are a few of us out here who are neither completely ignorant nor passionate nor loyal to a political tribe. I claim membership in other social groups, but not political parties. Maybe I am a freak!
Like Allen, I think at least one state government is going to spin very far out of control in the next several months.
However, having seen a number of cities and school districts come out of state takeovers in much better shape, it doesn't actually sound that bad. The typical causes of receivership include: longstanding corruption, long term population decline, one party being in power for decades, inability to retain good employees, a bureaucracy which believes it is invincible, and extremely inflexibly rules (often imposed from the outside).
While unions are often blamed, the great majority of public entities have unions. Good leadership can distinguish good labor relations vs nutty giveaways.
@barfly - I'm proudly partisan - against all politicians. It's probably a character flaw, but one I've learned to live with.
If you have opinions, you are partisan, whether you realize it or not.
Of course, but we are the truly terrifying 900 lb gorilla.
Without our technological terror war machine, we would be just another larger Canada. But that war machine is what makes this country absolutely terrifying to the smaller countries in the world.
Look at the fact it took less than 200k troops to knock off a country with 26 million people, in two weeks.
That is terrifying to any country.
Our economy, thanks to the almighty dollar is similarly terrifying.
Look at the rest of the world catching the flu, while we have caught a cold.
A lot of folks are thinking Putin style, that they need to move away from the big mean machine, or be eaten alive when we get desperate.
Someday this war's gonna end...
"But we all know that the deal is done, the fix is in, and the tax credit will be continued, after a short pause, and it may well be expanded. Where's my blood pressure medication again? "
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
Thats how it goes
Everybody knows...
".......but there are a few of us out here who are neither completely ignorant nor passionate nor loyal to a political tribe."
.....I would imagine regardless the posturing and feather ruffling even here, most can't be put "into a box". More so than the totally ignorant - at least people read here.
Citizen AllenM,
At $180bn, and an interest rate of 3.360% (We're sorry..., it costs $6bn a year to keep AIG alive. I think they could save as much money by legislating double-sided printing at all federal institutions, and that is a less sensitive issue.
@EHP - Unless you're one of the players rigging the game right now, I don't see how anyone could accurately predict 12 months out from now. What should be done likely won't be, and kicking the can down the road to a bigger mess could take years. Too many people are still in denial.
this statement makes no sense.
Some of us are strongly opinionated yet our opinions span party lines.
You really ought to examine why it doesn't make sense to you.
Well, I fit in the 20% down, mortgage less than equivalent rent, can easily afford the mortgage, and plan on staying here forever categories.
So, thanks, suckers.
Seriously, I see the $8k as a way to mitigate the fact that the house is pretty much guaranteed to drop in value over the next few years. Since we sold in Aug '06 and bought in Aug '09 it's still a net positive for us.
Not necessarily. Partisan means you are pro one party or another... it is entirely possible to be independent and NOT pro one party or another. Between a half & a third of us in this country currently DO NOT affiliate with any political party.
That is the big question, now isn't it?
EHP- do you believe the stock market is going to continue higher at the frantic pace of the last six months?
What about the metals markets going nuts?
Why is oil staying up?
Will Israel go it alone against Iran?
The background news is starting to get very ominous, and we here at CR are watching the economy flounder, watching the happy talk, and nervously eying the exits again.
How did that turn out last time?
This time, I took my own advice and went to cash last month- but a lot of money is in the markets very loosely, and will panic at the drop of a hat.
Someday this war's gonna end...
T.A.R.P.
I think in many ways that predicting the next 6, 12 months or 2, 5 years is easier than the next 2 to 6 weeks.
You assume that $180 billion is coming back- I don't.
So you sometimes agree with Democratic ideals, and at other time agree with Republican ideals, and yet at other times agree with Libertarian ideals, and what have you? You're nobody.
"what will transpire during the next 12 months?"
Let me pull out my magic 8 ball.
"If you have opinions, you are partisan"
I think the distinction is that a partisan aligns their opinions closely to the collective opinions of a group. Being more partisan means a closer alignment. There's nothing wrong with that, per se, but a very partisan person has somewhat predictable opinions. If you already know the group's positions (because the group is well-known) then the very partisan person can contribute little new when they are expressing opinions. Of course, when such a person is providing objective facts, then they can bring new and interesting information.
Like any team sport, engaging in a contest between two partisan groups can be very enjoyable to those who are passionate about such things. For the rest of us, it's... less interesting. To give you an idea of what it is like, have you ever turned on a TV in some foreign country and seen two teams playing some weird sport you don't care about. Now imagine that you had to watch it.
I hope that helps give you some insight into how folks like me see it. Not trying to argue - really - just trying to explain my perspective as honestly and clearly as I am able to.
@AllenM - Canada isn't afraid of the US. They just send comedians like Jim Carey over, and the distraction works perfectly without spending a dime on the military.
Like any team sport, engaging in a contest between two partisan groups can be very enjoyable to those who are passionate about such things. For the rest of us, it's... less interesting. To give you an idea of what it is like, have you ever turned on a TV in some foreign country and seen two teams playing some weird sport you don't care about. Now imagine that you had to watch it.
There's nothing wrong with that, per se,................I beg to differ..........many in WWII Germany closed their eyes to indefensible evil. THAT is wrong. IF you can't see that, then YOU are wrong - AND dangerous to the rest of civilization.
Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
YouTube - Leonard Cohen - Everybody Knows
You're nobody.
BS. I'm an independent thinker, as opposed to a partisan robot. I have my own beliefs and ideas that weren't handed to me as political marching orders.
@barfly - isn't partisanship just a tool to keep the masses under control while their assets are assimilated into the collective?
So you sometimes agree with Democratic ideals, and at other time agree with Republican ideals, and yet at other times agree with Libertarian ideals, and what have you? You're nobody.
Dude - you are either one really good
or you really need to learn to think for yourself. Just sayin'...
Throw in two or three state governments, and that will bring the fear, big time.
A given, nationwide, on average. Bubble places are still deflating, and nonbubble just getting started due to unemployment.
A given, nationwide, on average. Bubble places are still deflating, and nonbubble just getting started due to unemployment.
CA, yes. MI, no lacks sufficient population density in urban areas. RI? Really? I would predict Cleveland. FL- yup, Miami.
Yup.
My bet would be 2013-2014- it takes time to throw in the towel.
Yup. Gold $2k
A given. No way to avoid this one in the next 12 months.
Ireland? Spain? Eastern Europe? Pick one!
Already under way!
Yup. I pick Argentina, once again, followed by Venezuela and Bolivia, just in South America.
Nope, the market is already doing a bang up job of eliminating this problem.
How is that for pessimistic, remember, six months ago I told everyone on CR to enjoy the interlude and get ready for the next round!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
"I don't see how one can remain neutral, after all that has transpired"
LoL! Some people are married with children, and others without kids, and some are unmarried. Each group can't understand how the people in the other group can rationally make their different choice. But we do! It think this is similar. I look at each issue I care about. Whether a party agrees with my conclusions or not affects me only in judging what the most likely actual outcome will be as the issue plays out.
Edit: and when I care, I do reach a (non-neutral) conclusion - on the issue.
Geez, barfly, now you're starting to sound like W -- "You are either for us or against us". Life's not that simple.
Just because individuals don't conform to a strict party line does not make them neutral.
AllenM,
I think the old ounce-for-Dow thing might just happen again. History does tend to rhyme, you know.
dryfly, after growing up during the Reagan revolution, and everything since, I am more wedded to democratic ideals than ever. Clinton was a sellout, imo. If Obama proves to be so, then we are truly screwed, as many here claim. Maybe I am the last of the true believers. A fool. What can I say?
Actually I was there a month ago, and they were afraid of us.
They actually found out how symbiotic the economic relationship is when the US started requiring passports to cross the border.
Niagara Falls was fun, but the folks running the tourist stuff were very unhappy at the occupancy rate.
I meant it more in terms of how the rest of the world views canada- nice inoffensive folks.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I think the old ounce-for-Dow thing might just happen again. History does tend to rhyme, you know.
So then are you calling for Dow 36000 too?
"YOU are wrong - AND dangerous"
I wouldn't be so harsh, BSR. There is a place for some partisanship. It's like my hot pepper analogy. Some can work, for the right situation. We all like a good contest on a high school football field, and it's more fun with a little partisanship - when it is kept within limits. Same even with politics and other things. I approve of extreme partisanship in moderation!
Citizen AllenM
You are wrong, no where do I assume the $180bn is to be repaid. It costs $6bn a year to pretend you have a much larger asset. It's called evergreening.
I would agree with the controlled aspect. But I think, a la the 70s, that control is being lost. The participation of state players far outweighs JPM- plus the street aspect with cash for gold everywhere is starting to weigh heavily.
I only think metals are done when the Fed has to explicitly tighten to prop the dollar. Last night's discussion on Yellen's speech has more of my thinking.
Someday this war's gonna end...
EHP, it's called I/O. We know what that means.
thanks for the replies some investor guy and Citizen AllenM re: Next 12 months
I prefer extend and pretend, one of my favorite Tantaisms.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Retail sales:
Ex- welfare cars and seasonal adjustment, down. Esp. non-discretionary.
Back to school, Economist.
@AllenM - there's a big difference between concern over a shared economy and fear of the war machine. Of course, the last time the US invaded Canada, they took a look around, and said - "it's too friggin cold up here - keep it."
Further evidence of loss of control is Barrick killing off it's hedges and forward sales.
In other words, they are sucking it up and taking their losses now, rather waiting for possibly immense losses later. Either that or fear they would have to deliver into hedges that they might have preferred to roll.
No matter what, too many signs of major instability in the markets.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I only think metals are done when the Fed has to explicitly tighten to prop the dollar.
The chances of that are slightly better than a Beatles reunion. And yes, I know two of them are DEAD.
" The only thing in the center of the road is dead armadillos and yellow lines"
--Hightower
A Jobless Recovery, Part Three - DELTA Global Advisors
in case u missed it
if Obama proves to be so
?!?
No sense in invading Mexico now, too, as the oil's running out.
You missed my point:
"Without our technological terror war machine, we would be just another larger Canada. But that war machine is what makes this country absolutely terrifying to the smaller countries in the world.
Look at the fact it took less than 200k troops to knock off a country with 26 million people, in two weeks.
That is terrifying to any country.
Our economy, thanks to the almighty dollar is similarly terrifying."
You guys have already bought into the USA, lock stock and barrel. The fact you don't explicitly want to admit it doesn't change that fact.
Drop out of NAFTA and see how happy we are.
Someday this war's gonna end...
The Fed won't tighten interest rates. I do expect they'll be expanding the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and/or Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility within 6 months rather than attempting to revive money market funds. I guess that is contingent on my expectation of a wave of November layoffs as annual budgets are decided, to be followed by disappointing Christmas sales / international trade, and a general unwinding of international stimulus efforts. If they do want to tighten, they'll have many more levers they'll nudge first. I guess we'll see what happens with mortgages first. Which should be hilarious so long as you don't work in the Treasury.
Then lever up and go all in.
I am not that sure they won't give in and pull a volcker faced with a crashing dollar.
The pain will be immense, though.
No sense in invading Mexico now, too, as the oil's running out.
2 out of the top three fields on earth are going down fast---
Anyone betting when Ghawar goes? I bet we would miss those 5 million barrels a day.
if Obama proves to be so
Citizen AllenM
Don't diminish the receptive nature of the market into buying a pure gold play equity issue at this point. They did choose to raise more than necessary to buy out the hedges after all
What can I say?
Learn to think for yourself.
I have voted for Dems, GOPers & third party candidates for different offices all in the same election & felt completely consistent doing it. In no election have I ever voted a straight party line [all one party] not ever, not even close.
In fact during the Reagan, Bush I & Bush II years I tended to vote more Democratic... during the Carter & Clinton years I voted more GOP... throughout those years there has always been a sprinkling of independents... sometimes more sometimes less. I didn't intentionally vote 'in opposition' it just turned out that way.
Watching how O has handled the bailouts I think that trend will continue.
"So why aren't employers stepping up their hiring? As my friend Larry Kudlow puts it: "The threat of higher payroll taxes and energy costs is more than enough to deter new hiring. Taxes on upper-end investors are going to rise, too, and there may be health-care surtax on top of that. And don't forget that small businesses pay the top personal tax rate, which is going up. Oh, and how about the recent minimum-wage hike? Yet another business cost." Bushwa- there is no hiring because the consumer is moribund- cart before horse thinking. Unless the U.S. rediscovers its manufacturing base and rebuilds the goods producing sector of the economy we will not create the necessary amount of viable job growth. Unfortunately, the likely hood of rejuvenating our productive capacity remains low, precisely because we believe a lower dollar is the way to boost exports. The correct way to boost exports is to lower the corporate tax rate and reduce regulations. More bushwa- the only way to get any more manufacturing here is the dollar crashing- without that, any manufacturing would simply be in the Pearl river Delta- MAJOR FAILURE IN THINKING HEREThe way I see it is this: until the legislative ambiguity abates and/or the government has successfully inflated another asset bubble, we will suffer with the condition of a jobless recovery. And even if accomplished, that job growth will be of the non-viable and unsustainable variety once again. " Gee, like the last two bubbles. Pento is an idiot. Still.
Citizen AllenM
Who says the USD should go down in a straight linear line?
I'm expecting a visit to ~90 on the narrow dollar index before year end
" The only thing in the center of the road is dead armadillos and yellow lines"
--Hightower
Except Dick Armey was there first [unless they both stole it from old Texas folklore]...
That's probably everything has been so effed up. With all due respect.
@dryfly - does that voting record make you a partisan contrarian?
That's probably everything has been so effed up. With all due respect.
Ya following party dogma has worked sooooo well. And since the party machines don't cull their own who is supposed to do it?
Barfly, I would vote for a party that makes sense to me, but none of them do.
Parts of them make sense, but all three parties (including the Libertarians) have nutjob wings.
We really need a good centrist party like Germany had. That swing party making deals really advanced the centrist agenda, and made a country that worked. The extremists hate the centrist party and position with a passion.
Just like partisans hate the middle of the road here, because it deserts them when they get nutty. Arizona is a prime example- we now own one of the most right wing republican parties in America, and it is about to go down in flames next election.
Why? Too many nutjobs, and not enough middle of the road types, which have been explicitly targeted as RINOs.
Now the party is going extinct- and well, hoocoodanode?
Someday this war's gonna end...
It ain't dogma, it's ideals. There's a difference.
The pain will be immense, though.
And we all know how much the folks in power love immense pain. I wish they had the nads, but I know they don't.
Doesn't matter, really... goes more to timing of the pain than any real avoidance. A currency is only dependent upon Fed policies in relatively moderate times. Ultimately it's dependent upon political stability and economic strength, neither of which we'll have going forward under either scenario.
@dryfly - does that voting record make you a partisan contrarian?
Really.
I think my tolerance for stupid is a bit lower. I just wish I cut my investment losses as quickly as I did my political ones. There have been a few pols I've voted for over and over - not many. Then what right do they have to the position if they didn't do a good job? None. Applies to both parties.
BTW my two favorite pols of all time - one Dem & one GOP - both had problems with their own party elite & were fiercely independent.
It ain't dogma, it's ideals. There's a difference.
LOL... Half right. I have ideals... YOU have dogma... [/snark]
I hear Canada is getting warmer...
Don't fret, EHP, we only start wars far away out of sight.
that job growth will be of the non-viable and unsustainable variety once again.
Like the last three recessions.
The taxation argument just doesn't hold water.
It's a function of division of work.
Less and less work as we go along, revealed by each recession, each time to a greater degree.
It's just not that hard to see now.
dryfly, I have seen what happens when the party machine does cull their own- you end up with a very extremist party that is starting to resemble the whigs.
The only thing standing between the Republican party and oblivion is the Chamber of Commerce types still bankrolling the idiocracy.
When they cut them loose, it will be over for 20 years, and if the stock market goes south...
I really read up on the Great Depression five years ago again, and it has stood me in good stead.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Mish and Beck are like cavemen.
"Tax bad, Ugg good".
"Union bad, gun gud"
They can't think, all they can do is knee-jerk old arguments which are clearly disproven by the past fifteen years.
My ideals are :
1) PRO LABOR
2) PRO LABOR
3) PRO LABOR.
Work should always reduce workload.
Extremism, in moderation. We don't need a centrist party, we have two. We've never had a radical party, because we don't have a parliamentary system.
EHP- look at this, and tell me this looks controlled:
Kitco - Silver Page
That is crazy things going on- from 20 to 8 to 17 in less than two years.
If anything, it seems to be going further out of control.
The entire chart for the last decade is especially disturbing in the gyrations.
The only thing standing between the Republican party and oblivion is the Chamber of Commerce types still bankrolling the idiocracy.
I would argue the only thing between the GOP and oblivion are Democrats. Just like the only thing between Democrats & oblivion circa 2002 was W & the GOP...
Extremism, in moderation. We don't need a centrist party, we have two. We've never had a radical party, because we don't have a parliamentary system.
I don't think you need a radical party - but you do need a few radicals.
Bubble is building; get in before you miss the jobless recovery bubble:
Buffett Buying
U.S. Stocks Rise as Retail Sales Gain, Buffett Says He’s Buying - Bloomberg.com
Benchmark indexes extended gains after Buffett told a conference in California that his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is “buying stocks right as we speak” and he’s getting a “lot for my money” in equities.
Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the worst U.S. recession since the 1930s has probably ended, while warning that growth may not be strong enough to quickly reduce the jobless rate.
That is crazy things going on- from 20 to 8 to 17 in less than two years.
That's not an unusual pattern for an area that's been buried under extreme pessimism for a long time.
I beg to differ. I see the results of an extremist party in operation daily.
Maybe the national party has not gone there yet, but I sure see it where I sit.
I would agree with you for the most part that we used to have two centrist parties, but I don't so anymore.
Google whack Senator Ron Gould and see what the man says, it is beyond even Ron Paul- and that man actually is in charge of committees.
I guess it goes without saying, I mean American labor, although I support Chinese and Mexican labor, as well. Anything to get a share of the profits of the actual labor.
“A weak dollar should be welcomed, since it signals a recovery in the global economy and financial markets,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. “The U.S. will likely welcome dollar carry trades.”
Hello $100 oil!
labor - it's a word that looks almost foreign, doesn't it?
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I, VT) is my man.
There can't be a large radical party by definition, but even "moderately radical" ideas never get voiced seriously by either party of the duopoly. Legalized vice, peace, unilateral disarmament, carbon emission (until too late)...
wow! some investor guy
that is some list !
I leave for the deep countryside of Cambodia, pretty much where they recruited the first Khmer Rouge soldiers and
I come back to these lists...
must say I have never lived amongst a people who live so close and I would venture to say harmonious with the land...
no electricity out there fellows except for the wealthist who owned a generator and TV and karoake machine ...
all domiciles are elevated about 10 feet off the ground for the occassional flood... some have thatched roofs, others
have corrugated metal (I spent an afternoon in one - a convection oven) and those with money have tiled roofs.
...
I can see why Pol Pot thought the only true revolutionaries could come from this group, the purity of soul as opposed to the
bourgeoise rotting disease of the cities.
....
the other day the topic was on Minsky and CR mentioned a genetic defect of capitalism, no mention was made of the
central defects of Marxism. One is Marx given the time he resided in could not imagine a post industrial society which relied
on the rise of the technocratic class. One theory I happen to ascribe to is that the technocrats brought down the Soviet Union...
they had money, perks, country houses yet they a very small percentage of the Communist Party membership which is the early 80s
was about 4.2% of the population. Now, this idea is underscored today by China's major drive to have Party membership reflect at least
20% of said technocrats, right now I think it's under 8%.
Which brings me to my point - Pol Pot's radical agrarian communism was the only solution I have read about that attacked that systemic
flaw. Sooner or later the PRC will have to confront them and they will decide they don't need the Party. I always use Albert Speer as my emblematic 20th century technocrat....
Real Estate Rebound Won’t Reap More Than ’04 Prices, Simon Says
Real Estate Rebound Will Reap ‘04 Prices, Simon Says (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Prices of U.S. shopping malls may return to 2003 or 2004 levels as consumer spending and the commercial real estate market recover, Simon Property Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David E. Simon said. That would represent a decline of as much as 23 percent.
Simon, the biggest U.S. shopping mall owner, has $3.8 billion on its balance sheet and is looking at possible acquisitions, Simon said in an interview in New York.
nder Pressure
“The consumer’s still a little under pressure,” David Simon said, and unemployment will have to decline before retail spending recovers.
Companies cut payrolls by 216,000 workers last month, boosting the U.S. jobless rate to 9.7 percent, a 26-year high, according to Labor Department data.
“It’s too early for us to declare the recession over,” Simon said. At the same time, he said, Christmas sales may surprise even some of his tenants.
“I actually think it could be a little bit better than what the retailers are anticipating,” he said.
barfly,
You like to point fingers at Republican administrations but conveniently forget the Democratic congresses that accompanied them. The Dems owned 9 of the last 14 sessions of the House, and all bills originate there. Sure, the Dems only owned 4 (and split 2) of the last 14 sessions of the Senate, but not once did the Reps have a filibuster-proof majority.
Oh, and the oft-derided "Military Industrial Complex"? That was entrenched well before Reagan came along, and it just so happens the Dems owned both the House & Senate for all but 4 years out of the 50 that preceded the Gipper.
There are no saints in DC.
We need a silver bar icon.
TJ, no disagreements with anything you say. How did Shakespere say it? All are punish-ed? I'm talking about the workers. The grunts. Who stands up for the workers? Supposedly, the Democratic party. Well, because of that, I support the Democratic party, for better or worse. If I ever see the Republican party stand up for labor, then I'll support them, but not until. Period.
“A weak dollar should be welcomed, since it signals a recovery in the global economy and financial markets,” said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo. “The U.S. will likely welcome dollar carry trades.”
Hello $100 oil!
Well, this pretty much has to end in a dollar collapse, right?
A policy that gives any amount of money to ordinary people in the hope it will help bankers is infinitely preferable to a policy that gives any amount of money to bankers in the hope it will help ordinary people.
In parliamentary systems, there is most likely a Labor Party, so if that's most important to you, at least you have a voice. Not in the US. Another reason why there has never been a black female Senator, although black females are about 7% of the population.
barfly,
All a matter of perspective. What good is labor without businesses to employ them?
Are you talking unions? Unions represent less than 8% of the total private workforce, whereas small businesses employ more than half the entire workforce.
Speaking of representing the "little guy", have you ever paid attention to the Democratic Party Convention? They came to LA a while back, and the "Tale of Two Cities" theme was never more apparent in the way they treated their own people. At Staples Center the corporate big-wigs rode separate elevators to the private, luxury-box-accessible VIP level so as not to have to associate with the union-heavy party faithful that populated the convention floor.
"What good is labor without businesses to employ them?"
The UAW could easily make cars in Detroit factories without GM. Maybe without fatcats profiting from their labor, but plenty of business.
What good is earning money without banks?
What good is health care without disease?
What good are the Yankees without Steinbrenner?
Can I ask a question: I'm a little surprised how little attention the ACORN videos have gotten. Granted, they are a bit amateurish, but 4 ACORN offices around the country are busted for giving advice on tax evasion, prostitution (including international child prostitution!), and money laundering. One even threatens to outright kill somebody. It's quite blatant, actually (google it if you are interested - it's a nice followup of EHP's link yesterday showing the ignorant rednecks from the phony tea party rally).
Is it just that 4 ACORN offices is only a small fraction of the national total? I would have to agree that not all ACORN members can be that corrupt, but I'd say those videos would be enough to establish that ACORN doesn't police itself or at least thinks of itself as above the law.
So, before people start lambasting me as a right-wing loon, I'm just as hard on the Fox idiots (I'm very surprised that Fox was the one to break this particular story and I have to at least wonder if they contrived it up somehow). And I really don't think Obama, who I view as honest but possibly naive, had anything whatsoever to do with the corruption at ACORN.
What good is labor without businesses to employ them?
Why do unions only represent 8% of the workforce? Check the rulings of the NLRB (Presidential appointments) since 1980, which have been more powerful than the Supreme Court in their effect upon the economy.
Here's a few of the videos I am talking about, for those who'd be interested in seeing some ACORN offices thoroughly put to shame:
YouTube - ACORN San Bernadino Child Prostitution Investigation Part I
YouTube - ACORN Baltimore Prostitution Investigation Part II
YouTube - ACORN DC Prostitution Investigation Part I
I understand your concern barfly, but the Dems primarily represent the interests of big government, while the GOP primarily represents the interests of big corporations. Just to keep it interesting they take turns switching it up a little. Both constituencies were anathema to our founding fathers.
The little guy who is a conservative or a liberal with a strong political world view should be afraid of them both.
Obviously, we were wrong on Iraq. We've failed in Afghanistan and will exit humiliated in 5-8 years (after one of the next two presidential elections). The government at a federal and state level is trying to raid private health care to help pay for it's obligations. Banks played loose and fast and we pay the consequences. We will never have a real immigration policy as one side loves to beat the other over the head with it. And obviously, Cap and Trade is a funding mechanism for the federal government.
Unfortunately, this is as good as it gets when it comes to governing. The less-power these nitwits have the better.
barfly
I think the watershed moment with the ways unions are perceived in this country came when the flight controllers went on strike in the early 80s
and President Reagan broke that union, plus the baseball strike and the NFL strike of their 'unions' ... it might help if associations that are collections of uniquely gifted individuals call themselves by a different name
w, cap and trade is a funding mechanism for the banks. It's just another stock market to them. If the government simply wanted revenue or to restrict carbon use, a straight carbon tax would be far less complicated. It's all about the vig for WS.
Weather Helm, not to be tinfoil, or anything, but what would prevent these irregularities being anything other than disingenuous plants to discredit the ACORN organisation? ACORN has made a point of dismissing, quite publicly, anyone found in contravention of their rules. Is there not the possibility of a disinformation campaign going on with these reports? An organization under extreme fire by the right for many years might deserve a little scepticism as to charges made against them in the media. That said, the milieu in which they mix might admit of a few "bad apples", but should they be allowed to discredit the whole organisation, even if the reports should turn out to be true?
w - you're steamrolling me.
Iraq
Afganistan
government raiding health care
banks
immigration
cap and trade
-did you forget anything?
The only ACORN employee that I've known was a Pakistani guy in Brooklyn whom I trusted very much.
Here's an example of why the ACORN story isn't getting any traction....
An undercover video reportedly filmed in the San Bernardino office for the Association of
Community Organizations for Reform Now (ACORN) was recently released on the Internet.
The film depicts a worker talking about her past involvement in prostitution and the alleged selfdefense
killing of her former husband.
The San Bernardino Police Department is investigating the claims made regarding the homicide.
From the initial investigation conducted, the claims do not appear to be factual. Investigators
have been in contact with the involved party’s known former husbands, who are alive and well.
The investigation is ongoing and anyone with further information is asked to contact the Police
Department’s Homicide Division at (909) 384-5615.
http://www.acorn.org/fileadmin/Press_Releases/090915-San_Bernardino_Police_Report_Alleged_Homicide.pdf
They came into her office fooling with her and making up stories; she decided to have some fun in return; they edited the video to try to make her deadpan humor look serious, cutting out the bits that even Fox viewers would realize were jokes.
"...even Fox viewers would realize were jokes."
You lose all credibility with wild assumptions like that.
Duke, absolutely, the Unions troubles began with Reagan and the flight controllers. Subsequent appointments to the NLRB (National Labor Relations Board) only accelerated the decline of the Unions power, to the delight of many who otherwise benefited from prior union gains. The whole sordid story makes me sick, especially the glee with which the unions were basically destroyed, to the detriment of all of us since. If you could make a documentary to this effect, it would be a great service to labor, although a total loss to your budget. Nobody cares.
'Twas Obama that busted the UAW. Labor made it clear that they were going to give up on the Dem's, so he's gone pop a little. Just today he riled up the AFL-CIO. But he loves to speak power to truth.
yogi, please speak clearly, and maybe even slowly, for those of us who are easily confused. Obama busting the UAW? Gone pop(ulist?) Speak power to truth?
He voted for TARP, but no bailout for GM, so they can break their contracts with the union, but no clawback of banker bonuses. I think it was the Teamsters who said fuck you if no public option in health care. So he put the tariffs on Chinese tires, which the Steelworkers supposedly requested, although not too loudly, because it will never stick.
Today (I just watched it on C-Span) he made a campaign style speech to the AFL-CIO, voice rising through applause.
But he says whatever the audience wants to hear, hasn't done thing one to reform Wall Street, and has quite a high opinion of himself. Maybe that's necessary to become President of the US, but it doesn't mean I have to respect him for it.
barfly,
funny you should say that cause back in '84 I worked briefly for a woman who produced for the "American Playhouse" a drama about the southern
blacks who came up from the South to work in the Chicago slaughterhouses in the '20s, it was called The Killing Floor (1985).
I didn't last on that production, I was basically an unpaid intern and the woman producer I worked for was hell on wheels.
Never looked at documentaries again. Although, in the last 5 years they have had a re-surgence.
... that wasn't the first toe stuck in those waters. I took a job again as an unpaid intern to work for this 'genius' film editor (that's what 2 of his staff whispered to me) who was getting a lot of TV work... my first day on the job I was an hour late - can't remember if I mixed up the address - and got axed on the spot by the so called genius... said he was giving me a good lesson in the 'biz'... what a pompous arrogant prick he was (had that happened 12 years later after my good Hoosiers manners had been worn off by NYC I would've punched him ... I really hate it when people ask you to work for free and don't even offer you lunch money or at the very least subware fare)...
sorry 1 Currency, LawyerLiz, MLM and some guy I've never heard of .... your names ended up in my IGNORE list....
must be cause I use the Horizontal scroll bar a lot and I must hit it IGNORE ...
had Barfly not mentioned
1 Currency I would not have known... I wonder where you had gone....
Ken's been meaning to fix that bug...
Did MP ever catch the chipmunk?
there's actually a bug? I asked Coop to move the MouseOver or MouseClick event for Ignore maybe closer to profile area.. every week I find new people on my list, I'm someone who never even put Jas on the list ... just eyeball across it ....
the good news is that not only do I have the first line of my novel written which was started in November of '86 but I also have the last line written, the
bad news is now I have to fill in the other 340 pages
since it involves many well known early 20th century figures (Lenin, Stalin, Henry James, Teddy Roosevelt, et al) it involved a lot of research over the years at the NY Public library ... first it was a biography based on one man, and then his sister proved equally famous and then it transformed into a screenplay and then back into a historical thriller that begins in 1901 and ends in '54 ...
actually, I have a far amount of it written ... the bones of it let's say and the key to it as to any thriller is the twist and I hope I can keep the reader misdirected long enough so the surprise ending is just that... if I were to pitch it as a movie I'd say it's JFK meets Reds meet Boys from Brazil...
I realized that all the people who I wondered "How are they making it?" are no longer "making it." I think this recession has gone on long enough that peoples resources are spent.
The fall from middle class is starting in ernest.
Casino Capitalism: Fortune Editor Andy Serwer Says Administration Gaming System For Wall Street Titans
Casino Capitalism: Fortune Editor Andy Serwer Says Administration Gaming System For Wall Street Titans
Earlier this morning, Morning Joe's Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski were joined by Fortune Magazine Managing Editor Andrew Serwer and our own co-founder/editor-in-chief Arianna Huffington in Carlsbad, California at the Fortune Magazine Most Powerful Women Summit to talk about how Wall Street has fared in the age of bailouts.
Asked about Goldman Sachs and their post-TARP fortunes, Serwer used a pretty telling metaphor:
SERWER: I mean, it's amazing to me that as we recover, you know, come out of this financial crisis, you know, you'd expect a company like Goldman Sachs maybe things are improving, make a little money. But they have a record quarter. In other words, they made more money in this three month period than they ever had in any other--
SCARBOROUGH: [archly] But they just made some good guesses, right?
SERWER: Well, I don't know if it's okay or not, but I think what happened is that the government has telegraphed to Wall Street, not only Goldman Sachs but the other firms what it was doing, what was going on, what the program was, and so, essentially, it's like telling a Goldman Sachs, "Hey, put your money on 32 Black" at the casino, at the roulette wheel. And the thing spins and lo and behold, where does it end up, Joe?
SCARBOROUGH: 32 Black?
SERWER: 32 Black.
That's a pretty significant statement from the Managing Editor of a magazine that's going to have Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein present the "Goldman Sachs & Fortune Global Women Leaders Award" at this very Summit. And it's hard to ignore the fact what Serwer describes is a risk-free system of wealth accumulation that bears no real working resemblance to the thing we know as "capitalism."
Remember back to the 2008 campaign, when so many people worried about "wealth redistribution?" Turns out the worry was very real, but the worriers themselves are all making out pretty well!
just noticed that CR was mentioned on Krugman's Blog... Kudos to Bill!
sometimes I read the comments and noticed one by a guy named Eisenstein:
it ended with the following:
This will take time but I remind that we are undenialbly better off than we were 100 years ago in spite of what conservatives say. I don’t want to poop in a little shed in the back yard, die from an infected stubbed toe or have to cut wood to keep warm again...
...
IMO that's an honest list if there ever was one!
I like the real-world stories folks post here and this is just one more. My wife and I rent a modest 1BR in DC despite having very good and stable jobs. We started looking at real estate in April 2006 and, when we found out we were approved for 500k in no more than 5 minutes using just our social security numbers, we didn't bite- we ran. Fast forward a year and we came back to the real estate idea, subsequently working with and firing six real estate agents who kept saying "now is the time to buy." Fast forward two years (to the spring of 2009), with the prices for what interests us having fallen 20-25%, but stuck in gear largly due to the tax incentive and false sense of hope driven by rising stock prices. We're very motivated to buy something but have been very wary of the prices and what will happen a) after the tax incentive expires, b) interest rates rise, c) unemployment and foreclosures keep rising (we see short sales and foreclosures now in neighborhoods we woudn't have imagined them in). Our current outlook is to wait until the winter for the next severe leg down in prices and public perception of the future. We see others in our situation pulling the trigger on buying a home, but it just doesn't make sense to us. Knowing it sounds egotistical, we are the folks the government should be shaping policies around, not the types of operators who got us all into this mess to begin with (including plenty of middle class dopes).
My perspective is that middle class home affordability should be the social goal. I fully support the 20% downpayment rule, because I know it would drive prices down by another 20% or so, which is where they need to be to make sense anyway. I realize the economic trauma that further price declines will cause, but it's both necessary and ineviatble in my view, so why not get on with it? it's the same thing to me as a) losing weight by eating less calories than you use (painful and traumatic for many, but necessary, inevitable, get on with it).
In my quest to put forth the question of whether the auto-bailouts were Constitutional, I've only found one roadblock.
I'll need help in formatting legal documents. I've never written a document where I had to put the footnotes in-text at the bottom of the page they appears, maybe I have but it's been a long way. I also would need help on formatting the margins. Otherwise, I believe I understand everything I need to get this issue in front of the Supreme Court when they consider Indiana v. Chrysler. I don't care if they read and throw away my arguments; its important that we get this issue in front of them.
Neither Chrysler nor Indiana Pension funds are going to put forth the Constitutional, arguments of whether Treasury crossed the line. Furthermore no one is going to challenge the fact that Bush plainly stated his intent to violate the will of Congress.
Interesting arguments; I hope I can get them in paper, and jump through the hoops needed to submit in time...
Rush hour traffic in my neighborhood in downtown Chicago almost disappeared when gasoline prices skyrocketed and remained sparse during the meltdown last year. Recently the traffic congestion rose to the precrash levels. Also my trading business was way off for the first six months of this year and it has recently picked up quite a bit but is still below last year's levels.
Two architects I know lost their jobs 9 months ago and one just landed two small projects. Green shoots for sure...
Good Morning All!
Crisis Pays!
Lehman: Barclays got $8.2 billion windfall from sale
| Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc said on Tuesday that Barclays Capital Inc got a $8.2 billion "windfall profit" from excess assets it took control of in the fire sale of Lehman's U.S. brokerage business a year ago.
Big Brother, Could you spare 82 Billion dimes?
No, but I can spare 1.1 Million votes!
KABUL (Reuters) - As many as a third of votes cast for Afghan incumbent Hamid Karzai in last month's presidential election are suspect and must be checked for fraud, the head of a European Union election observer mission said on Wednesday.
The announcement by the largest foreign observer team in Afghanistan suggesting fraud on a massive scale came hours before authorities were due to issue a preliminary final tally expected to show Karzai with enough votes to win in a single round.
Tally shows Karzai in lead; EU casts doubt on votes
| Reuters
Citizens of East Germany used to get a big tax break on their home purchases.
Trying to predict the future 12 months from now, is like trying to figure in late 1914 when WW1 will be over, or what the map of Europe would look like in a year's time, in late 1939?
We are in the midst of a war, a financial war. The combatants on all sides pretty much have the same technology at their fingertips, the printing press to create money out of thin air, and computer blips signifying wealth.
Could get messy.
Apparently, none of you have actually gone hungry before. It used to happen all the time.
I've gone hungry and so has my family. I come from a long line of hungry people. We would rather have gone hungry than ask a third party to pick our neighbor's pocket. Enjoy your smugness as you advocate "giving" other peoples' money away.
Do you know what it takes to sell Real Estate?
YouTube - Glenngarry GlenRoss sales meeting
"The recession is over."
"Mission Accomplished."
Sound familiar?
Shill,
The Mission was Accomplished.
Starting a war strictly for "no bid cost plus" profit!!!
Damn it feels good to be a bankster!
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