Credit Cards: Most Institutions Report higher Write-Offs in August
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 09/15/2009 - 3:49pm (260 comments)
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Should be good for +250 on the Dow.
Citi went from 10.0 to 12.1 in a month. Wow!
Financial firms are unable to make good on their commitments, citizens fail to make payments on their credit cards.
As above, so below, as the hermetics say.
Crooks above who think they're so smart will be undone by an even greater mass of imitators below.
Corruption above, corruption below.
That's okay, trailing indicator, trailing indicator. The bottom is in. (And we're staying there.)
I keep thinking of that walstreetpro2 video where he recommends we all max out our credit cards buying physical gold and then default.
Write it off? Right, it's off. Problem solved.
So Citi and BofA have worse credit quality among their CC customers in addition to their loan portfolios?
Being serious here, it isn't immediately clear to me why this would necessarily be the case (but it is.).
Does this just speak to the poor risk controls across all depts in these two banks (as compared to say JPMorganChaseBearwamu)
or is it due to something else?
Nemo - not even kidding
I know someone who did something very similar...
let's just say he knew he couldn;t afford to buy any green bananas
higher is always better, right?
So if I get 7 people in a room at random, and they all have BofA cards with equal balances, one of them has decided to just stop sending in payments. And they get away with this!
IMO, Discover and Capital One were primarily CC companies so they probably watched their cardholders more closely. Citi and BofA were just spraying credit at anything vaguely humanoid. Citi is still sending me cash advance checks, even though I told them to close the account a month ago.
Just wait until mark to fiction accounting rules are snapped back to reality. We're experiencing a reprieve right now as regulators are given breathing room to figure out how to collapse all of these insolvent companies. It will happen, in a controlled or uncontrolled fashion, as a bankruptcy and reorganizing or as a collapse of the economy and currency. It will happen, one way or another.
Not to worry. There's one bright spot, at least. The U.S. will be a Third World country soon. Bono will get China to forgive its debts in the third world. U2 is big in China, right? Right?
Citi and BofA were just spraying credit at anything vaguely humanoid.
I thought I smelled skunk.
Citi and BofA were just spraying credit at anything vaguely humanoid
that's what cats do to mark their territory, isn't it?
or, it it more like skunks issuing the final warning to a threat?
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 4:56 pm
reply ignore user
higher is always better, right?
Spoken like a true pothead. Lol
hmm. I wonder how WS would react if 50% of cardholders chose not to make any payment in some agreed upon month?
a debt staycation!
Who runs out of money first?
The loansharks or the hoi ploy...
Does this just speak to the poor risk controls across all depts in these two banks
Risk controls are part of the problem. The other part, and probably bigger one, is the aggressive growth strategies, both in terms of acquisition of new customers and in terms of extending credit to existing ones.
Ahem. Late fees? And late payments would trigger interest rate increases.
The assumption about the equal balances is a big one. Usually people who write-off do it at higher balances compared to balances of people who continue paying.
since congress critters are all in the pay of the FIRE hosers, and street protests do not produce change, perhaps the oligarchy getting kicked in the nuts by no mortgage or credit card payments every other month might produce some reaction that shows who's boss - the taxpayers or the financial crooks.
Ness: in a widespread payment-withholding, I doubt the FIRE guys have the balls to apply penalties. Pitchforks and torches, etc.
MrM - you are correct of course, but I knew if I said '1 out of 7 customers' I would get called on it immediately, so I threw the ceteris paribus in there ahead of time
realistically those who are carry the big balances are the ones who just give up - which is why of course the banks hate it even more!
Jim - who WS? My ticker search turned up someone quite counterintuitive.
C
This is unfathomable. How do we have 12% delinquencies in C's card portfolio, and yet retail sales are rising at a relatively healthy clip? Is it just that the wealthy had that much pent-up demand, or are people deliberately maxing out and defaulting because they have so little left to lose, or what? They should both be pretty coincident indicators. I know my financial situation doesn't change that fast.
What the frick is going on here?
WS = wall street
Wright It Off, just like the write model B.
Plastic Alchemy?
credit card loss rates tend to the track unemployment
If the Congress does force mortgage cram downs, there will be more personal bankruptcies and more credit card charge-offs. (I know there many differing views on the topic).
I think they'd do it out of greed and entitlement, Jim, but such a boycott seems unlikely. The financial industry is so short-sighted, I doubt they'd anticipate the consequences of raising millions of accounts to 29.99% APR for missing payments.
How do we have 12% delinquencies in C's card portfolio, and yet retail sales are rising at a relatively healthy clip?
Buy today, don't pay tomorrow.
I wonder how many people borrowed money to take advantage of cash for clunkers?
Btw, 12% is the write-off rate, not delinquency rate for Citi
I am in the kitchen right now and the chipmunk just ran past my feet. I guess he/she/it's trying to get to the kitchen door from whence it came.
I've opened the door and hope it makes a break for it.
There he went again, in a giant circle around the room.
He's definitely trying to make it to the door.
Go, chipmunk!
Bartender, I'll have whatever mp is having.
mp --
You might want to capture it. Free food can't hurt.
Btw, 12% is the write-off rate, not delinquency rate for Citi
You're right; thanks for catching that. I read too quickly. Delinquencies were pretty much flat. Let's hope this is just mopping up after the unemployed to date.
What's the size of their card portfolios at this point? Are these mostly securitized? Can we make a provisional loss estimate based on this data?
Music for mp
"Bartender, I'll have whatever mp is having."
Evidently, you didn't get the memo concerning the chipmunk invasion at mp's house.
As a reminder, the bank stress tests assumed a cumulative two year credit card loss rate of 18% to 20% for the more adverse scenario (only 12% to 17% for the baseline scenario).
CR - That cumulative 2 year loss rate was on the existing book of business. What is reported includes new acquisitions, which produce very low losses at low tenure but help with receivables. Therefore, loss rates on the old book of business are quite a bit higher than the published numbers.
mp: a broom blocking paths is a good way to herd a critter toward the door to freedom. (don't hit the poor thing, just plant a barrier.)
And they get away with this!
Why should I pay my cards? I gave at the office. That is, the feds are already deducting money from my check (and value from my currency) to bailout these aholes. I never even got a thank-you card from any of these ungrateful pricks.
If the Congress does force mortgage cram downs, there will be more personal bankruptcies and more credit card charge-offs. (I know there many differing views on the topic).
The portion of the mortgage that is crammed down becomes unsecured debt which tends to squeeze out credit card companies. I'd expect that if cram downs become common the credit card companies will get the worst of it.
Jim, he's too fast for me. Anyway, this little character can jump. He's behind me right now, no more than 3 feet away behind a bookcase.
At least we think mp's memo on chipmunks all checks out...
Anyone got an optical on this emerging situation?
C
I miss Conjure.
mp: try a plastic spray bottle with water when he doesn't go in the correct direction: operant conditioning!
"I miss Conjure. "
Conjure is out of town. Anyway, this thing is way too small for him to be bothered with it.
thread music nominee
YouTube - Jim Carroll Band- People Who Died
He's behind me right now, no more than 3 feet away behind a bookcase.
Set a trap at one of the bookcase and go all simian at the other end.
If you leave the door open, it's just as easy for another chipmunk to come in as for that one to get out.
So be ready to pull a Maxwell's demon if he manages to escape.
Hey let Timmy just give them billions of $$$ just like this sordid situation October 2009: Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele on the U.S. Treasury | vanityfair.com
More than five months after the bulk of the bailout money had been distributed into bank coffers, Elizabeth Warren plaintively raised the central and as yet unanswered question: “What is the strategy that Treasury is pursuing?” And she basically threw up her hands. As far as she could see, Warren went on, Treasury’s strategy was essentially “Take the money and do what you want with it.”
America is FUBAR !!!
mp: if you have to kill it, please don't tell us here.
Deleted.
@ Hoopajoops LTD (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 4:54 pm
Financial firms are unable to make good on their commitments, citizens fail to make payments on their credit cards.
Crooks above who think they're so smart will be undone by an even greater mass of imitators below.
Corruption above, corruption below.
Why not just say systemic corruption
mp, you're still wrestling with that chipmunk? damn.
Sir, are you now or have you ever hoarded nuts?
Lets go back to the Suzuki Dealership thats not financing rice burners, yet selling big ticket cash 4-wheelers....
those port traffic charts are looking pretty green shooty!
JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 5:28 pm
reply ignore user
mp: if you have to kill it, please don't tell us here.
No specifics please other than what spices you used afterwards.
/just joking
go chipmunk go!!
"If you get off the internet for a bit, you'll have a better chance"
You're right. Who wants to read some old fool live-blogging a chipmunk invader.
Anyway, son of mp went to pick up a Havahart trap.
chipmunk: the meek shall inherit the earth (I hope).
Wage growth has picked up in the last several months, according to two different government surveys
ECONOMIC SCENE; Bright Spot Amid Job Losses - NY Times
'''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''''
Isn't this solely min. wage increase?
mp, you are too nice. rats don't get such a nice treatment in rocky's house. however, i grant you a chipmunk isn't a rat. i think i'd have a hard time offing a chipmunk, too. a rat? not so much.
I'll have a bran muffin and coffee and a vacation in Tahiti. Here's my card.
Remember the chipmunk is almost as afraid of you as you are of it.
That chipmunk could have gotten a loan 3 years ago, on a house.
Chip Munk & a NINJA loan, but of course.
RockyR: you use a 12 guage?
Nemo: Remember the chipmunk is almost as afraid of you as you are of it.
I'm sure it is in terror. Probably lost half its lifetime today.
"spraying credit at anything vaguely humanoid."
Very articulate. However, there are an assortment of documents stories where people got credit cards for their dogs or cats. Sometimes, they were sent unsolicited offers in the mail.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 5:34 pm
reply ignore user
That chipmunk could have gotten a loan 3 years ago, on a house.
Chip Munk & a NINJA loan, but of course.
Are you sure? Chipmunks look too short and have tiny hands. No way they could fog a mirror.
If you have to kill it, tell us it committed suicide pending sentencing, or a long term of imprisonment.
poic: the chipmunks could give mp a power of attorney for the paper signing.
CCs for some may be better than having won the lottery. Then thousand dollars in credit. You can't buy anything with a lottery ticket, and if your temporal horizon is less than a month...
ten
what happened to borrowing the bored terrier, to rat out the chipmunk?
seemed a better idea than the half filled bucket to drown the poor critter... I can get a ratter in here in less than 10 minutes.
Someone should ask Ken to make an icon for "mp's chipmunk".
I actually want to know what happens.
Since the bankers have gotten over $10K/person (i seem to recall) for their bailouts and whatever, simple justice would give citizens a $10K jubilee on a credit card - paid for by the banks, not benny and timmy.
Nemo: I think we'd be better knowing that the chipmunk escaped to freedom in shangra la.
Confession: on some things, I just can't handle the truth.
The recession is over and the economy is growing but not enough to keep credit card charge offs from rising
The recession is over and the economy is growing but not enough to keep government debt from rising
The recession is over and the economy is growing but not enough to keep foreclosures from rising
The recession is over and the economy is growing but not enough to keep unemployment from rising
The recession is over and the economy is growing but not enough to keep commercial real estate from imploding
The recession is over and the economy is growing but not enough to keep "insert any meaningful economic measure here" from "insert adverse trend here"
Oh...and the recession is over and the economy is growing but chipmunks quite frankly don't give a damn
It's not a runaway Rockefeller, is it?
Might need that concrete you ordered for some new boots for the 'munk.
Tol you one last time, you flappa you gums, you sleepa widda fishes.
C
Which prolly means I wouldn't be a good selection for Marine Colonel at Gitmo.
Credit Card losses are going to get a lot higher; both B of A and JPM warned that they were going to suffer huge credit defaults in the second half of '09 in their roll calls.
How do we know that chipmunk isn't a squatter, after losing it's condo in Florida?
There is only about $1.6 trillion of outstanding US credit card debt. It will hurt, but losses will be what $300 billion? FRB: G.19 Release--Consumer Credit--November 6, 2009
You'll see losses that large on LA County real estate. http://assessor.lacounty.gov/extranet/news/rollrls2009.pdf pages 4 and 20.
Since the bankers have gotten over $10K/person (i seem to recall) for their bailouts and whatever, simple justice would give citizens a $10K jubilee on a credit card - paid for by the banks, not benny and timmy.
Benny and Timmy have not realized (acknowledged?) yet that consumers are more systemically important than Goldman and Citi.
Just wait.
"I actually want to know what happens."
Yes, mp, we want regular reports from the chipmunk front. Will the chipmunks win? Or will our hero, mp, battle overwhelming odds to rout an enemy armed to the, er, with, teeth?
Yes, the loss on LA real estate will exceed $30,000 per resident.
Great, and the dollar is slowly chewing through the suspected 76 resistance point
I'm not sure I want to see what the icon for "mp's chipmunk" looks like.
or the icon for "mp's chipmunk and its stash of nuts"
omg: bando chipmunks in Malibu or Newport Beach.
I'd call this thread music, but really it's music for the next few weeks...
YouTube -
Actually, the Federal Reserve has admitted many times that they have had trouble accounting for, with reliable accuracy, dollars in terms of credit cards--this has been one of the sticking points in "defining" an accurate and reliable measure of the monetary base. Greenspan and Ron Paul have had this exchange more than once in Congress.
I'm not sure I want to see what the icon for "mp's chipmunk" looks like.
.
recall yesterday's pics on the armadillo and possum painted over with highway stripes? (lol)
Also, credit card defaults will be a direct hit to Bernanke's coveted 19 stress tested banks; whereas, commercial real estate will primarily bankrupt the unfavored regional and local banks
Broward walks into mp's bar, wearing nothing but assless chaps and carrying a chipmunk under one arm and a hairless cat under the other...
stop me if you've heard this...
The trap is in place next to the bookcase and has been baited with shelled walnuts.
Now, we wait.
I hope it works. It's an awfully big trap and I'm not sure if Chipmunk is heavy enough to spring it.
This chipmunk saga would be a better reality show than what is currently offered. As long as the ending is 'freedom'
add a zero to that if you're talking about LA west of La Brea, excluding the dense corridor around the 10
Time to break out the firepower and just start blasting away before us liberuls take away your guns! Home invasion,...wasn't that why we're so full of the Second Amendment?
bANK fAILURE (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 5:53 pm
Broward walks into mp's bar, wearing nothing but assless chaps and carrying a chipmunk under one arm and a hairless cat under the other...
stop me if you've heard this...
Termite asks; "Is this bar tender?"
Broward immediately protests; "The sheep is lying!"
mp interjects; "Ain't yer sheep."
The ultimate loss rates are very different, so it's apples and oranges (one can also look at the total assets of money market funds, but so what?)
Is anybody else rooting for the chipmunk to abscond with the walnuts without triggering the trap?
Be honest.
Serfvivor:
12 contestants all lose their decent paying jobs, and now are working minimum-wage jobs trying to get by...
mp: have you named the chipmunk yet?
and determined sex?
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 5:46 pm
Since the bankers have gotten over $10K/person (i seem to recall) for their bailouts and whatever, simple justice would give citizens a $10K jubilee on a credit card - paid for by the banks, not benny and timmy.
Not a chance. Crack whores and pimps have higher business ethics than banksters ...
@ Comrade Polyanna Greenshoots (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 5:44 pm
BTW great handle
The recession is over and the economy is growing but not enough to keep mojo risin !
Nemo: I'm cheering for walnuts for the munk, followed by a dash through the open door.
Missed it.
Driving all day.
At least you guys have a sense of humor.
I wish this period would end already.
and determined sex?
You mean of the chipmunk?
"have you named the chipmunk yet?"
First of all, Chipmunk is not going to be around these parts long enough to get a name.
Second, I don't know how to determine a chipmunk's sex and don't want to know how.
Watching en episode of "House Hunters" on HGTV. Buyers were approved for a 100% loan. Now, in the new tough environment, they have to put down 5%, and they are horrified. It's all of their savings. 1/20 of the price of their home is almost more than they can afford. And this market is now rational? Start enforcing 20% down payments and watch while the world reverts to normality, credit card debt self-cures, dirty water runs clean.... Sigh. It really would help.
Ok, back to something more entertaining, Chipmunks Haunt MP's Home. See our next episode, where the chipmunks eat the walnuts right under mp's nose.
Don't forget the football stadium/circus at the 57-60fwy interchange--now there's some leveraging in the Brea area
gotta get my dose of NCIS. laterz. best wishes (as CR says) to the chipmunk.
ya nemo. I wasn't trying to reveal mp's secret sex life.
I wish this period would end already.
The song I added above was Green Day's "Wake Me Up When September Ends".
I think we're all of the same opinion.
Don't forget all of those white elephants downtown, skid-row-adjacent.
Chewy Chicken Feet May Quash a Trade War
but no chicken feet
from NYT
In light of Chinese consumers’ love for chicken feet, the government may be loathe to cut off U.S. poultry imports.
I miss AIG's Toes.
C
oddly enough, Man U still wears AIG jerseys. would have been nice to see them lose today.
"Chipmunks Haunt MP's Home."
Believe me. This is getting old. The kitchen door is open, as well as the screen door. Bugs are coming in.
I wish the Chipmunk would make its move.
If I capture the little [expletive deleted], er, chipmunk, I'll upload a photo somewhere.
Chipmunks, ground squirrels and gophers are turning my stacked stone retaining walls into condohell. If anyone shows any sympathy for these vermin I'm going to have to pay Ken for a shotgun icon.
Is anybody else rooting for the chipmunk to abscond with the walnuts without triggering the trap?
Be honest.
Yes. Guilty.
Oh so very guilty.
Forgive me mp, but I'm pretty sure this thread has elicited a small amount of pee and definitely a couple of gaseous eruptions due to uncontrolled laughter. My wife definitely shot me a few disproving glares.
Chipmunks, ground squirrels and gophers are turning my stacked stone retaining walls into condohell. If anyone shows any sympathy for these vermin I'm going to have to pay Ken for a shotgun icon.
How are they even getting financing?
Let's see, cute furry Chipmunks, Squirrels, and Gophers on the one side, and Rob Dawg on the other. I think I know where the bulk of the sympathy will be going, RD.
One he tastes the walnuts, he might decide not to leave.
OK I'm done. Good luck with the varmint, mp.
km4:
I think the original title read: "Chinese government loathe to cut off chicken feet."
Thx Samdog but I was actually working today and cut right in without looking
I ordered braised fish-lips @ a restaurant in Hong Kong once, just to see how many you get.
YouTube - Dramatic Chipmunk
how many 'internet sensations' are there, anyhow?
Another well writtne piece by Willem Buiter
Until yesterday’s defeat of Roger Federer in the final of the US Open at Flushing Meadows, the most disappointing development this year was the performance of president Barack Obama and his administration - and my expectations were modest to begin with.
A major let-down on the ‘values’ front has been the disregard for basic human rights and civil liberties displayed by the administration in their treatment of the Gitmo detainees. I would add to that Obama’s reluctance to pursue possible criminal offences committed by members of the previous administration who may have been involved in aiding and abetting torture and other forms of inhuman treatment of detainees. Obama’s preference for ‘healing and reconciliation’ - aka the soft option, because without accountability and justice there can be no healing and reconciliation - puts him on moral thin ice.
...
The US officials supposed to lead the systemic reforms of the domestic and international financial system are the same people who failed to recognise the emerging disfunctionalities that produced the crisis, who indeed were responsible for creating some of these disfunctionalities, who failed to prevent the crisis, who re-fought the battle of the 1930s (and insist on taking great credit for doing so) and left us with the moral hazard nightmare legacy of the end of the first decade of the twenty first century.
...
The reality that you cannot run a West-European welfare state (with decent quality health care, decent pre-school, primary and secondary school education for all), rebuild America’s crumbling infrastructure, invest in the environment and fulfill your post-imperial global strategic ambitions while raising 33 percent of GDP in taxes, has not yet dawned on the Obama administration or on the American people at large.
...
Clearly, the qualities one needs to get elected to high office in western democracies are not qualities that are likely to be helpful once you have achieved high office and are expected to govern and lead. To survive the selection process to become president you have to be able to stitch together a coalition of special interests that can provide sufficient financial and sweat equity resources to win this grueling race to the top. Once you get there, you should shed the unfortunate baggage you accumulated on your way up and govern in the interest of all the people. Few can do that. Apparently Obama is not one of them.
MP, You know enough to determine sex. The chipmunk can't find a wide open door and won't ask for directions.
Jim
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 6:02 pm
reply ignore user
I wish this period would end already.
The song I added above was Green Day's "Wake Me Up When September Ends".
I think we're all of the same opinion.
I prefer Green Days "American Idiot" on days like this.
Dawg - vermin, shotguns, stone walls. While I can sympathize, I urge you in the strongest possible terms not to engage the enemy if it finds redoubts and defiles in a stone wall. Life isn't a cartoon.
C
...moseys over to check the Asia action. Hi Kitty! You're awful quiet today.
Juvie I can smell your dirty feet and petuli oiled hair...gold hoarder, bubble top home seller....that you are.
V good, NC Jim.
patientrenter (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 6:06 pm
Let's see, cute furry Chipmunks, Squirrels, and Gophers on the one side, and Rob Dawg on the other. I think I know where the bulk of the sympathy will be going, RD.
Three words. Home team advantage.
Well, okay. More than three words. Toss in a ruthless unemotional willingness to impose the white man's supremacy over nature and near unlimited access to weapons of environmental devastation along with tacit spousal approval for any and all methods short of scorched earth and I bet on the human.
That said, I think noob is on the right track. Why extricate when foreclosure is so much more efficient.
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 6:08 pm
reply ignore user
I ordered braised fish-lips @ a restaurant in Hong Kong once, just to see how many you get.
Fish cheeks are the tasty part according to my wife
how many 'internet sensations' are there, anyhow?
A large number of the most famous ones made it into the Weezer "Pork and Beans" video, which was unique because many of the original stars all joined the band in a studio to record their 'sensations' to the song. Very clever and well done, even if you hate the music.
Original: YouTube - Pork and Beans
Remix, with even more memes jammed in: YouTube - Re: Pork and Beens
Devils Dictionary over @ TBP today......
g'nite
"I ordered braised fish-lips"
My brother told me of an experience he had when he went out to dinner with a Korean business associate.
The guy wanted to treat my brother to Korean food.
The food came to the table. Looked like noodles. The Korean explained that it was a delicacy.
My brother asked, "What is it?"
The Korean replied, "Chicken rectums."
juvie, that was some good bait, another round khind sir.
<a:href="http://www.chipmunkery.co.uk/Breeding.htm"> Things mp doesn't want to know
no 12-gauge. yard too small. neighbors would probably protest rat gut coming through the fence...
i second the motion for an "mp's chipmunk" icon.
Chipmunks are Gods.
I was on fire when I came to town,
But the longer I'm here, it just brings me down.
The graft and corruption, obstruction, and crime,
Makes everything seem a complete waste of time.
I must be naïve to think I can change
The way things are done, no matter how strange,
With interests intrenched, from time out of mind,
Who do not intend to allow a decline
In the power they hold over any purse-string,
Or granting of favors, for the favors they bring.
So what do I do, now that I'm here,
Where forces arrayed make success unclear?
My efforts seem futile, and never enough,
When every attempt is met with rebuff
By legions of people, with heels dug in,
Bound and determined to see I don't win
The least of my programs, however benign,
As if it would signal the country's decline.
Be that as it may, I'll keep my resolve,
And for my children's sake
Try to help my country evolve
Beyond the fear and the hatred
That we see today,
So help me God,
In the Lord's name I pray.
mp (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 6:16 pm
The Korean replied, "Chicken rectums."
You mean the part where eggs come out. Anyone who needs to question from where their protein complexes originate needs to file off their canine teeth in solidarity with their fellow sheep.
Can I Haz a default?
"How do we have 12% delinquencies in C's card portfolio, and yet retail sales are rising at a relatively healthy clip?
Waaaaaait a minute... if there's a huge rise in credit card delinquencies... and a rise in consumer spending... and most consumer spending is paid for with a credit card...
If the uptick in consumer spending is exceeded by an uptick in credit card defaults, AND the bearer of those defaults, the banks, are huge recipients of government dollars, then don't we really just have a wickedly contorted government subsidy of consumer spending, which seeks to subsidize only the most reckless of defaulting consumers by using the banks as a well-paid intermediary?
For19 Letter
Urgent Reply Needed
Attention: Beneficiary
From the records of Banker Beneficiaries who have not received
their payment from the FEDERAL RESERVE, your name was
discovered as next on the list of the Beneficiaries who have not
received their payments.
We wish to inform you that your contract/inheritance payment file underreference number NNPC/NIG/XX099/006 has been approved for immediatecrediting into your nominated bank account immediately without anyotherfurther delay after the final endorsement of your Fund Release Order Document.
hereby mandate the FEDERAL RESERVE to make this payment of
US$787,000.000,000.00 (Seven Hundred Eighty Seven Billion United
States Dollars Only) being your contract /inheritance fund into your nominated bank account once you contact the BANK maniger.
You mean the part where eggs come out. Anyone who needs to question from where their protein complexes originate needs to file off their canine teeth in solidarity with their fellow sheep.
I found it interesting during my animal science studies in University that the people with the highest probability of passing out during a real-life abattoir demonstration were young, healthy males. Apparently females have a much higher tolerance for seeing real blood, even though they'd complain more about being required to watch it.
Abattoirs are unpleasant places, but being on a kill floor has never tempered my taste for meat. It's usually the price that does that.
Are you talking about the guy with the sledgehammer?
He wasn't a wall street pro. He was a lunatic.
Not necessarily. Some people try to send in a little something every month.
But eventually, it isn't enough and they get discouraged.
Oh Hoops, that's simply absurd. That would involve gigantic systemic fraud and run to trillions of dollars, possibly involving unprecedented global coordination. There must be a simpler explanation.
The ark of the covenant has been found and inside was a godcard.
C
i had forgotten about the gi joe ones. brilliant.
No. Living habits are hard to break. Parents don't want to disappoint kids. Husbands don't want to disappoint wives.
Some people just can't disappoint themselves.
Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.
I don't get drowning chipmunks.
Why don't you just stick its feet in the electric outlet?
Why don't you just stick its feet in the electric outlet?
... or put some food outside the door, so that we could return to bashing Obama and banksters
That's it, i'm calling the ACLU*
*American Chipmunk Liberation Union
That's it, i'm calling the ACLU*
*American Chipmunk Liberation Union
Oh geez, thanks for putting in the definition.
I thought you meant the American Chipmunk Liberation Unit. We really should change our acronym to avoid confusion.
puts tiny SWAT gear back into closet, resumes sitting in front of computer
Blog Jukebox, 1 play per click
YouTube - Jefferson Airplane - Plastic Fantastic Lover
If the uptick in consumer spending is exceeded by an uptick in credit card defaults, AND the bearer of those defaults, the banks, are huge recipients of government dollars, then don't we really just have a wickedly contorted government subsidy of consumer spending, which seeks to subsidize only the most reckless of defaulting consumers by using the banks as a well-paid intermediary?
No no no, the TARP takes care of that with regulation, and stuff.
Here, take a hit off this
, your consumer buzz appears to be wearing off.
If the uptick in consumer spending is exceeded by an uptick in credit card defaults, AND the bearer of those defaults, the banks, are huge recipients of government dollars, then don't we really just have a wickedly contorted government subsidy of consumer spending, which seeks to subsidize only the most reckless of defaulting consumers by using the banks as a well-paid intermediary?
Absolutely brilliant deductive reasoning, Hoopajoops Watson!
Hmm. I have but a singular quarrel with your epiphany. Does it imply, sirrah, that we can no longer say that the bailouts of banks are not helping the American people? Free money directed towards vagrants and scoundrels laundered through the banks is still free money, after all.
I'll notify Scotland Yard.
<ahref="http://www.hipsterrunoff.com/2009/09/beached-alt-spotted-outside-of-walmart-on-meme-blog-about-poor-people-inside-of-the-walmart-store.html">Shopping meme Beached
THREAD KILLER !!!
mp
try peanut butter, some chipmunks love the stuff.
Just remember, In a service economy, the consumer is always in the driver's seat.
No. Living habits are hard to break. Parents don't want to disappoint kids. Husbands don't want to disappoint wives.
For the first time in several years, I'm staring down the prospect of gaining a dependent. In the process I'm re-learning the importance of commitments and breadwinning for those you love.
Incidentally, my organization is also desperately cutting costs in an effort to limit layoffs and furloughs. Foolish me, thinking education would be a good place to be during a recession.
I'm girding my mind for the possibility that I too will be making those decisions soon. I couldn't care less about earning more for myself, or defending my own standard of living, but for someone I care about, I'd go to the ends of the Earth.
As clever as Hoopajoops Watson's deduction was, I suspect you're closest to the truth here.
maniger?
really, have the death panels been notified as well?
That might be because so many women get used to seeing blood once a month as a normal part of life. Unless they're pregnant or using that new pill that enables women to never menstruate.
"Evidently, you didn't get the memo concerning the chipmunk invasion at mp's house. "
Not invasion -- reconquista!
That might be because so many women get used to seeing blood once a month as a normal part of life. Unless they're pregnant or using that new pill that enables women to never menstruate.
At the time I thought the same thing, but since I've watched my wife give birth I've come to the conclusion that--ignoring shrieks and general complaining about 'icky' things--women are just a lot tougher than men.
I wouldn't mess around with the chipmunk, he probably knows wire-fu~
Load the Sharps Buffalo Rifle and proceed cautiously towards it...
mp, catch two of 'em, breed 'em for size, and you'll have an endless supply of meat and skins for clothing. Just the thing for Mad Max survivalism.
Too much information.
I hear the politicians in America say they really mean to crack down on the financial sector any moment now. Please do not let them do this. You need trained professionals, and Canada can help (video)
Old Hippy
Bell a me Bros....consumin what he's growing....
( Whispers ) Silver is nice.
You jokers. Laugh all want.
I'm the one with the damned chipmunk.
-
http://www.innocentenglish.com/cute-animals/cute-baby-kittens-puppies-img/cute-baby-chipmonk-mouse-pic96.jpg
All aboard for a financial embryonic journey...
YouTube - Jefferson Airplane- Embryonic Journey
Please do not let them do this. You need trained professionals, and Canada can help (video)
Ooooh, you mean I might get to bring 'clubby' out of storage? I haven't been able to use him since we over-hunted the junk-bond salesmen in the late 80's.
I really miss that show, BTW. Excellent find.
From the Federal Reserve:
Notice a pattern in these numbers?
Percent change at seasonally adjusted annual rates M1 M2
12 Months from Aug. 2008 TO Aug. 2009 18.5 7.8
6 Months from Feb. 2009 TO Aug. 2009 11.5 0.8
3 Months from May 2009 TO Aug. 2009 13.2 -2.3
You jokers. Laugh all want.
I'm the one with the damned chipmunk.
Well I have a two-year-old. At least you're legally allowed to trap and release your nuisance back into the wild.
I have to live with mine until he's 18.
For the dramatic standoff between mp & c(hi)p(munk)! Stare down!
Fear the 'munk!
Edit: Okay, it's the gopher...
stick this in yer summer of love...
It looks like money market funds are still collapsing and small CD are beginning to evaporate. This is pulling the M2 total in the wrong direction. M1 is also beginning to decline in August.
Jefferson Airplane always reminds me of the good times with Nixon.
He always tried to meet us hippies half way.
Credit cards, CRE, home mortgages. We are in good shape. I noticed that CR is even getting less "sunny" the past few days...
I just finished writing more doom related, economic crash, starving citizens as the grid goes down in America and people run amok fiction.
American Apocalypse
Thanks Rajesh - the series is too short for me to make sense of. Question could be why, and where is it going? Obvious candidate would be debt liquidation and meeting obligations no longer funded by income, rolling credit or MEW, at consumer level.
C
Is there any reason not to think that this is a good level for the Dow to be at, or near? As in, the new normal? It seems to be hovering. It seems like much beyond this level, it gets into dangerous territory. Or is it all about the S&P?
Yu wont miss me..
I just finished writing more doom related, economic crash, starving citizens as the grid goes down in America and people run amok fiction.
We hope. Well, at least I sincerely hope...
When you leave interest rates at zero, people stop saving; don't know why that would happen. At bank rate monitor the highest interest rate on a 6-mo CD is from our friends at GM: 1.64%. The fact that the unemployed are probably spending down their savings might have something to do with it as well.
noob,
So do I.
mp's chipmunk?
Question could be why, and where is it going?
As Rajesh suggested, it could have been sucked into the gyrating vortex of credit destruction.
Trillions more face that fate.
Somehow mp I pictured you pulling a Thompson out of the closet and turning little fuzzy into a splat on the wall. Actually, what kind of chipmunk got past your perimeter anyways. Super Chip?
If you think you can't get a good interest rate at a bank, consider buying bonds issued by companies who are not in finance, construction, or real estate.
Yagij mine is skinnier, but, yeah, you're awfully close.
But, I don't think this one drives.
But, I don't think this one drives.
I call it "creative license". For it to be successful breaking your defense perimeters and circumventing capture, I decided it needed to be more of a daredevil chipmunk.
Nova, my traitorous cat brought it in.
Unless their money wasn't in MMs for the rates but for the security. It's more likely not a price movement per se than a decline in risk perception, so moving cash out of MM funds is part and parcel with indicators beyond the obvious cheerleading narrative, seen in VIX dropping, punts on risky stocks not defensives, etc.
A year ago people rediscovered, with damned good reason, Mark Twain's quote "I'm more interested in the return of my money, rather than the return on my money". Since May that's turned around. M2 seems to be showing it too.
C
Nova:
It was a dastardly secret agent chipmunk that pretended to be caught catfood and waited for mp to trick the cat into letting it go.
It was the most successful covert chipmunk plan ever!
consider buying bonds issued by companies who are not in finance, construction, or real estate.
Just understand the interest rate risk. Rates could spike, leading to a bad ending for return seekers.
MP - if it makes you feel any better, I went to a motorcycle rally/gathering two weeks ago, and won the roadkill award for - according to an eyewitness - running over a chipmonk...I don't remember it, but whatever...the fridge magnets I won are cool.
if it broke into mp's compound, it can only mean conditions are much rougher outside. He's looking for sanctuary.
Ah, never trust a cat. They just use humans as can openers.
yagij,
probably trained by GS just for this mission
He's looking for sanctuary.
That is so much
to make us 
ers 
!
This little piggy manipulated the market,
This little piggy bought homes,
This little piggy had roast beef,
This little piggy had money,
And this little piggy cried,
"We, we, we."
About their exorbitant loans.
Even if you take money out of the bank and buy CitiGroup shares, you're paying someone for the shares and they end up putting money in the bank. The money supply doesn't change. But if you make a payment on a car loan and the bank doesn't lend an equivalent amount of money to a new car buyer, the money supply decreases.
JD, another killer Lol!
My wife is watching HGTV. A tango dance instructor and a piano teacher are looking to buy a house. I wonder if they are late on their CC payments now...
AMF charged with one count of vernacular manslaughter.
Pay the fine at the counter on the way out.
Next case.
Or if you default on your car loan and the bank doesn't lend an equivalent amount of money to a new car buyer, the money supply decreases.
the bank of Sealy is highly deflationary.
AMF charged with one count of vernacular manslaughter.
Your Honor, we plead not guilty on the grounds of insanity. My client is a poet and doesn't know it.
ndk,
I don't know your situation and you don't know mine. But one thing I've learned is that you can't go back to "breadwinning." And you shouldn't try.
It's a trap that intelligent people are falling into due to a combination of hard times, guilt and habits.
You don't do younger people any favors by letting them keep up a comfortable lifestyle for a brief time. It just breeds more dependence.
What is the catalyst that enables a young person who has retreated back to parents' lifestyle to change and become more independent again? You think it's a better economy? A fortunate break or two.
Basically, it has to be a combination of hunger and fear, and step-by-step success in coping with them. I can't tell you how many times I've been having this conversation with my peers. You aren't going to be around to make 80% of the real hard decisions that young people in your life will need to make for the rest of their lives, which may become longer and even happier than yours. So, what exactly are you trying to do?
Nothing wrong with giving a young person love, encouragement, a little money, maybe a co-sign on limited credit, or help paying off a debt. But becoming a breadwinner again?
Rethink and enjoy what you've earned for yourself, while you can.
My client is a poet and doesn't know it.
Kid guitar lessons.
mp and Dawg,Chipmunks are repositories for Yersinia Pestis throughout northern california.I do not know about your area but i do recommend caution when handling them,The last 2 gifts from my cat were a snake and a gopher,both dropped on my feet proudly.
rich - you would wait until weaning before the tough love started, presumably?
C
"It has always been about thwarting price discovery. Think about all the subjects we discuss on CR. Universally each shares that one specific aspect. Lack of price discovery and the subsequent efforts to prevent fixing that specific problem are near the root of the current and ongoing world economic crisis."
From a few threads back, from RD, but worth repeating.
SNL Bailout Skit
mp has a cat !?!??!
Anyhow, Asian markets have obviously been reading the thread and have concluded America is doomed. Dollar / Yen is back to 90, Nikki is surging up 1.2%. Hang Seng, Kospi, ASX roaring away. China having a difficult mid-week.
C
From a few threads back, from RD, but worth repeating.
+1 Agreed.
These people seem to know that they will be wiped out if the rules were followed. It appears the plan is to change the rules until the old rules work in their favor again. Unfortunately, it appears the Laws of Unintended Consequences is going to get them and the rest of us.
You don't do younger people any favors by letting them keep up a comfortable lifestyle for a brief time. It just breeds more dependence.
"Yersinia Pestis"
I had to look that on up.
Oh, great.
Yes, dammit, mp has a cat. Or, more properly, mrs mp has a cat.
"mp has a cat !?!??!"
A new one every week, actually. Conjure enjoys the claw play before weekly meals.
Dollar / Yen is back to 90
I thought you were off a few days when you predicted a day or two ago that the Yen wouldn't get an 8 handle until Friday. At its pace at the end of last week, it looked like it would break through 89 without much of a puff, but 2 days of "Whaaa?" floated it back up. Now it is coming back down according to your prediction. Have a
!
Cap'n,
We were able to procure a wee bit of de-riskium crystals for the Far East Warp Drive Engines, but the U$$ Enterprise, she cannna hold on much longer.
Scotty, out.
For those who may have missed my post on the last thread, I just created some charts of port traffic that has been seasonally adjusted. It really helps to see the monthly trends.
Seasonally Adjusted Cargo Traffic
Scotty, out.
Scotty, didn't you get dryfly's memo? The Enterprise's dial goes to 11 and ignores the rules of thermodynamics. Do your job, and don't wake me up next time!
~ Your Captain
i think I just had a stroke. michael moore opened his mouth and what came out made sense.
Scotty, I don't care if you have to throw Spock himself into the hyper-drive. Just do it!
nikki is going skyward. this recovery is great... for some.
mp has a mrs ?!?!?!?
Sorry mp,epidemiology was one of mom's hobbies along with japanese flower arranging.I also did not want to be accused of racism for calling it the "Black" Plague.Of course I am a racist,humans are scum for the most part.rhododendrons are much more reasonable.
i think I just had a stroke.
That's it. The Depression is upon us. Time to stock up on that one thing that even Cubans don't have: toilet paper!
If you need me, I'll be practicing my poses so my picture of this GD will be this generation's most memorable photo like this famous photo from the last one.
He makes a lot more sense than TPTB currently in charge. He may make films that are somewhat over the top, but after reflection are spot on.
Thanks, Mark. Good charts. Makes it a bit easier to see the trends.
Patience, young jedi, the players are assembling, final touches on the make-up, throats being cleared...
BTW Rajesh, ZH has a post up just now on credit constriction, premable below:
"It was just yesterday that Tim Geithner was pleading that banks are increasing consumer lending. Well, yet another lie refuted. Banks, and not just any banks, but those receiving government bail outs and subsidies, continued constricting lending in July, with total average loan balance outstanding declining by $54 billion from $4,295 billion to $4,241 billion, a 1.3% decline, following a 1.1% decline in June. The Truth: the consumer, the one followed by the ABC Confidence Report, not the manipulated, CNBC-friendly one, has retrenched to a point where he has no desire to even approach the bank lending window."
C
"mp has a mrs ?!?!?!?"
Yes, dammit, mp has a missus.
And a cat.
Actually, two cats.
The cats are her responsibility.
I hope that you forgot a snark tag.
"He makes a lot more sense than TPTB currently in charge"
Yeah, but mp's cat does also.
Now, this is protest.
"Yes, dammit, mp has a missus.
And a cat.
Actually, two cats.
The cats are her responsibility. "
...the players are assembling, final touches on the make-up, throats being cleared...
If this performance is anything like a Noh performance, I better get settled in early, be prepared to be there all day, and know that I won't understand any of it.
At least the instrumentals and vocals are enjoyable...
is mp's cat something like schrodinger's cat?
Stagflationary Mark - great charts. So the stochastics and MACD still would make shipping a screaming buy until 2015, right?
Excuse the noob enthusiasm, I taught myself technical trading on Saturday afternoon.
C
patientrenter,
There's been a bull market in patiently renting. Good for you!
It's like not buying one thing at full price, then getting a chance to not buy it again for 25% off! How do they make money? Volume!
Exactly, young jedi, just like cricket...
C
Counterpointer,
Mark my words. It isn't just a screaming bargain. It's a...
"Table Pounding Screaming Bargain!"
The last time I heard those words with such enthusiasm was from a permabull on Yahoo's Conseco financial message board. He table pounded that bargain all the way into its bankruptcy. Never saw anything like it, lol.
m
n
ALFRED: Series: MZM, MZM Money Stock
Take a look at the 10 year "trend"
Guest Post: Economic Megatrends That Will Drive Our Future
Guest Post: Economic Megatrends That Will Drive Our Future | zero hedge
Consumer credit continues to collapse as July marked six months of decline in a row, down 10% this year. Banks continue to tighten credit as well. Money supply, from M1 to MZM, is declining. This is an international trend playing itself out in just about every country. The Fed cannot stop declining asset prices.
Don't go there, you really don't want to annoy The Wife of MP.
Think about it man, she hosts Conjure Bag.
Duh.
Corus of course.
Problem solved.
looks like a big up day, tomorrow
Recovery. This word does not mean what you think it means.