Prosperity is just around the corner.

Mission accomplished, Ben. Mission accomplished.

No, nor would I want any.

I have come to the conclusions that this market will go up until an exogenous event "black swans" the market.

My money is on the middle east.

The energy markets are telling me so- we have supplies coming out our arse, and yet, prices are going up!

Why? Inflation here is still very tame, and indeed mainly a statistical artifact from the boom.

So, I start looking at the obvious- a nuclear Iran will ensure the economic destruction of Israel.

So- what flows from that thought- Israel will have to attack and destroy the capability to build the weapons, or wait for the inevitable nuclear blackmail.

The real wildcard is if they use nuclear weapons to eliminate the production of nuclear weapons.

At that point I will just want to crawl into my bunker and await the fallout.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Oh good. I can get a job now and stop commenting here.

Brother, could you spare a paradigm?

whatever you do, just don't double dip the economy!

dip it once, and then be done with it!

Sept 2009 vs Aug 2009:

No cash for clunkers
No state tax holidays
No back to school
Too early for Christmas
Lean auto inventories
Too early for cash-for-appliances
Getting too late for the $8K tax credit

Sept could put the 'fall' in fall.

No puts for me. I'll just go long and buy some carefully selected stocks when we get back below Dow 7k. I am guessing that will be about Feb 2010.

"Unfortunately 2010 will probably feel like a depression to a large number workers."

What Bernanke never seems to quite say is: "We avoided a depression for SOME people at the expense of others".

sure, i might pick it or FXP up if we rally another 5% north

I have always preferred The Great Malaise to the Great Recession

because that is what we are going to begin to experience now

First we had the despair (and here perhaps the schadenfreude) of the coming Depression
Then we had the euphoria (and here perhaps the frustration) of 'disaster averted.'

And now, we have the reality of the long dark tea time of the soul setting in.

This is going to take a long time. It will be boring.

BTW, I think this was one of more negative posts in some time. Watch the news flow for housing ...

So I take it you don't expect to see a similar 4.5% GDP spike to make this a double-dip recession? That discussion about re-entering negative territory within 12 months was something I didn't really expect from you, even if it was only discussing an option.

sure, i might pick it or FXP up if we rally another 5% north

I just feel so bad for those guys who have been patiently holding on to it and getting taken to the woodshed everyday.

Does anyone know what banks typically use for their fiscal year?
After they close their books for this year, maybe they will start acting on all those NODs. There must be something that they are waiting for.

Does anyone know what banks typically use for their fiscal year?

Typically they use 1999, it was a very good year.

You could turn most of the fancy schmancy charts upside-down, and they'd mean as much they do now...

Past performance is for losers

judge appoints a public defender for "sir" allen stanford because his current attorneys have no assurance of getting paid.
Public Defender Assigned for Stanford - NY Times

"ladies and Gentleman..Our economy is Strong."

the fundamentals are good

Clearly the recession is over. BDI capesize is collapsing, and the jumbos never really recovered anyway:

DryShips Inc. 

So, no forward orders of drybulk and primary factor inputs, because no orders from processing, because no orders from intermediate production and heavy industry, because no orders from infrastructure and end consumers because a) tapped out, with near zero capacity to pay and b) stimulus efforts are becoming modern Smoot-Hawleys, with priority going to local sourcing rather than international JIT bulk freight.

Good thing that ol globalization was irreversible and slew the dread beast nationalism back in the day.

C

I totally agree. The recession is over and we have begun the DEPRESSION phase. This will end in 2020....Til' then....I give you my best. Bullets are the new dollar......

I'm still worried about how the housing news flow has been portrayed. Many people think the bottom is in for housing, and I think another downturn is likely.

Are you mostly fixated on the psychological element then? If an expected bottom in housing in pierced for a quarter or two, a feedback loop will send consumers back into their savings' holes and restrict consumption again?

Or is your concern about a prematurely called housing correction because you're worried some other element of the stimulus/bailout/bond/stock market story will react inappropriately?

...and bitters, sir?

C

I still have SRS and I've taken a beating on it, but on days like this it doesn't feel so bad.

Gold, silver and miners are hitting highs, and food is up almost 3%. So, like Meatloaf said two out of three ain't bad.

I've really learned the advantage of having multiple themes going with some neg correlations between them. It lowers the volatility and prevents the big up and down weeks and months. So far this year, my only bad month was June and it was down about 6%. Sept. is looking like one of my best months, even though I'm pretty short.

I still think we'll see weeks of down stocks and up PMs/commodities ahead. That's when it will be sweet.

I'd like some of what Bernanke's having.

If it's legal.

There are lots, although I think they are overly kind w/ the term 'comedian' in this list:

List of Canadian comedians - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

giacutter (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 1:04 pm
reply ignore user
I'd like some of what Bernanke's having.
If it's legal.

Side affects may include hair loss, premature aging and cognitive dysfunction.

Q: What's the difference between an American & a Canadian?

A: A Canadian is just an American that doesn't know it yet.

Noob I grew up near Scarborough, Ontario.

You poor soul. I hope the rest of your life has been somewhat more charmed.

I grew up to the east of you, between TO and Kingston, but during my youth I never made it much past Whitby/Ajax while gallivanting about. I do have some friends in Scarborough, but I don't get to see them as much anymore as I'd like.

I'd be worried about the housing news flow because the longer the correction takes, the more households will be sacrificed. Remember: a decline of 50% in one year versus 5% over the following 10 (roughly) is not the same.

In the first case, 10 yearly cohorts of buyers is screwed (those who bought in the last 10 years, say). Not good.

In the second case, at least 15 or so cohorts of buyers are screwed (those who bought in the last 5 and the next 10). Worse. It's because it really doesn't matter if you're down 15% or 50%--the effect on consumption is probably going to be the same: bunker mentality.

We should not trap future buyers into overpriced houses. It makes the recovery worse.

An English friend in Brighton delights in asking the odd far too many-festooned maple leaf bagged individual he comes across, in the most proper of English accents...

"So, what part of the states are you from?"

noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 1:08 pm
reply ignore user
Noob I grew up near Scarborough, Ontario.
You poor soul. I hope the rest of your life has been somewhat more charmed.

Not really, my earlier years were spent in Windsor, Ontario.

Feel free to give me your condolenses, though the therapy is starting to help.

Blockbuster may close as many as 960 US stores - Yahoo! Finance

Blockbuster shutting 20% of its stores by year-end.

Good news for CRE, right?

'We should not trap future buyers into overpriced houses. It makes the recovery worse.'

Not for the bankers, and the Fed, and the governement owened by the two previous entities.

Trapping buyers into overpriced housing is now the most important step in reestablishing the solvency of the major money center banks throughout the world.

Thus, a negative news flow for housing, if it is rapid and severe, will threaten the 'recovery' of the financial sector, precisely becuase it will prevent the trapping of current and future 'homeowners.'
If it is slow and prolonged - well, you get the distasteful picture by now I'm quite sure.

and how exactly am I to believe that the S&P 500 is only 10% lower after the the collapse of Lehman, the bailout of AIG, the bailouts of Citi, BofA et al, the collapse of WAMU

apparently we expect that those events only decreased the earning potential of the S&P 500 by 10%, ignoring multiple expansion.

noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 1:14 pm
reply ignore user
Feel free to give me your condolenses, though the therapy is starting to help.
Good lord, you're like a beaten woman. There should be shelters for people like you.
Next you'll tell me your first apartment was in downtown Hamilton.

That's alright. I actually know someone who is rabidly proud of being from Windsor, the town known as the one you leave from not go to.

Thankfully I don't have Hamilton on my residential resume.

I should delete my LinkedIn.com account. There's a depressing air of desperation when you see a long-dormant identity suddenly go berserk with spurious, employment-related activity.

The End of the Official Recession?

Yep?

LAID-OFF TODAY

"...capitulated on srs today...took heavy..heavy loss.."

OK, now I'll consider buying some.

Canada Man, hey Canada Man?

Who can take a accent, sprinkle it with eh’s
Cover it with a toque and a Maple Leaf or two
The Canada Man, oh the Canada Man can
The Canada Man can ’cause he mixes with their trust and makes the world feel good

Who can take an American, wrap em’ in a sign
Soaking in the sun and perpetuate a groovy lie?
The Canada Man, the Canada Man can
The Canada Man can ’cause he mixes with their trust and makes the world feel good

The Canada Man fakes everything he makes satisfying and delicious
Now you talk about your anti-American wishes, but i’m more of a faux-Montrealer, fond of knishes…

YouTube - Sammy Davis Jnr The Candy Man

CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 12:56 pm

My guess is a sluggish recovery, but it is never smooth. I'd put the odds over 50% that we don't see a double dip.

Funny. I look at the exact same criteria and conclude there is no way to avoid a double dip.

A long, slow, protracted recession means big bonuses for the geniuses who keep the system running and somehow manage to arb a bit of cashflow and profit from their stupendous efforts. A depression means the business is stuffed and they all get fired.

I'm beginning to get this game.

C

Bendover,

everyone in my old neighborhood who bought since 2006 is underwater between 150k to 250k

am I glad we sold? Yes
do I want to bail them out? No
do I have empathy for the situation they are in? Yes

-- I just read a rather more worried analysis of the Israel-US-Iran-Russia situation. Hold on. --

There are also soon upcoming elections in Iraq. Certainty of action there.

April 10 called by NBER as end due to running out of people to layoff. No secular growth until 2012. If state and muni layoffs take off instead of furloughs, double dip ensured in October

To summarize the story (sorry I'm late):

Tepid, weak, struggling, sluggish,chances are slim for a robust rebound, daunting, I doubt we will see much of a rebound until the overhang of existing home inventory is reduced, double dip recession - or at least a prolonged period of sluggish growth. And this means the unemployment rate will continue to rise well into 2010; probably feel like a depression to a large number workers.

Put more simply: The future looks shitty

"Comeuppance see me sometime."

Das Glueck ist eine leichte Dirne
By Heinrich Heine (1797-1856)
Translated from the German

Luck is loose, libidinous,
And does not like to stay with us;
She smoothes the hair back from your brow
Kisses quick, leaves anyhow

Aunt Misfortune, otherwise
Will bless your heart, does not despise;
She’s in no hurry and she sits
Beside your bed and knits, and knits

Pavel
April 4, 2004

Man, you guys are a bunch of losers! Get your asses off your chairs and couches and start spending some damned money! How the hell do you expect the governments to close these deficits??

Not sure how we get a jobless recovery unless people's debts are washed away and written off. Just cannot wrap my head around how one pays off debts and makes payment on the mortgage if one has no job?

Stephen Roach on a recent FT interview saw the US recovery as being very weak Maybe 1-2% GDP growth\ yr. And very fragile.

Stephen Roach has a double stigma.
Not only is he the Boy that Cried Wolf but he stopped just as the Wolf huffed and puffed and blew down the door.

The people wipe with it

Speaking of the Ireland thread...
I woke up dreaming this morning, that I was waiting to catch a ferry from Scotland to Dublin. Sitting in the waiting area, digging in my pocket to see how mauch American money I had left. The bills fell on the floor and they were all funny colored and textured. I told the guy next to me that they were hard to get used to, since they changed them on us like every 5 minutes...

Odd.

Besides closing stores, Blockbuster indicated that it will convert at least 250 stores into smaller outlets.

To me, this means putting a Blockbuster and a Kentucky Fried Chicken in the same location.

For $10, you get a video and a bucket of chicken. And they'll deliver for a buck tip.

This is the new half-off consumer economy.

Dublin, a nice city.

It's an omen. Adios dollar

I woke up dreaming this morning, that I was waiting to catch a ferry from Scotland to Dublin. Sitting in the waiting area, digging in my pocket to see how mauch American money I had left. The bills fell on the floor and they were all funny colored and textured. I told the guy next to me that they were hard to get used to, since they changed them on us like every 5 minutes...

In Mexico, the paper money feels like that. Even a 500 peso bill looks dirty and flimsy.

But the 10 peso coins are big, golden and shiny.

Whenever I pay Mexicans in those coins, I feel like they're getting a good deal.

I, too, felt a disturbance in the doom plane. That or dinner didn't settle well.

Strange signs abound. I have a thing for crows. I learned crow speak. I talk to them. Yesterday my daughter was outside by herself and a crow landed on her arm. She freaked. It left.

It's all about the omens...

The augur was a priest and official in the classical world, especially ancient Rome and Etruria. His main role was to interpret the will of the gods by studying the flight of the birds (whether they are flying in groups/alone, what noises they make as they fly, direction of flight and what kind of birds they are), known as "taking the auspices." The ceremony and function of the augur was central to any major undertaking in Roman society—public or private—including matters of war, commerce, and religion.

dont you believe it (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/15/2009 - 4:45 pm

Maybe its not the best time to be a wallflower?

Amen, my friend, preach on ... this is survival time.

Even though I can 'get' the numbers that mean the end of a recession, I have a hard time not thinking this is just more spin to keep people from smelling the smoke.

Local indicators sure look grim.

Well we have the recession is over crowd versus reality and the FX market--the dollar continues to get trashed. I'm surprised that more people do not find it suspicious that every week someone from the government comes out saying the recession is over: why would they have to keep saying it? It either doesn't speak for itself, which it doesn't, and/or they're expecting big trouble. Again, it is very irresponsible to begin proclaiming anything economically with only q/o/q and even having only m/o/m data improvement, especially with government stimulus, which is not the real economy.

If unemployment increases or stays where it is at for an extended amount of time: the banks go under again. If assets prices continue to drop: the banks go under again. The banks are again extremely over leveraged. Why? Because it's their only hope of earning their way out, which they won't.

So far, no real evidence has been given concerning a recovery except some bogus reliance on a technical term in that they define "recovery" in terms of GDP, and GDP is based on growth or contraction and not on prosperity and depression. Given the private and public debt, it is extremely unlikely that the government can keep up its spending, especially once the States stop contributing. And then what?

The moment we cannot continue to get GDP growth the entire US economy collapses. That's what happens when you run a debt based economy. Leverage is great in times of growth, but the moment contraction begins, then you get a margin call. Hard to see how the government is going to get funding with income and withholding taxes at an almost all time low. Credit is contracting, income is decreasing, and unemployment is rising: any one have a guess how you maintain an economy based on consumption and government spending in that situation?

So now the US not only manufactures debt and fraud, but now we've ramped up production on empty hope.

Instead of making early and wild speculative guesses on recovery, wouldn't it be more prudent and socially responsible to at least take a wait and see approach? Giving people a false sense of hope can only make a potential fall all that more devastating. Is it any wonder media ratings are way down and polls indicate that American's are increasingly not trusting the media?

barfly - correct.

We should've thrown President Bush out of the White House, and since President Obama is bent on continuing his policies, hopefully he'll get thrown out, then

Moody's is on their.

Five times, trade policies with China were challanged, four under President Bush, who backed down all four times, and once under President Obama, who is not backing down. Is this an example of the continuation of Bush's policies?

"The only sure thing about luck is that it will change."

Bret Harte

Remember the good ol days:

Pelosi: Bush Impeachment `Off the Table’
- NY Times

“She will force a synergistic union,” of the caucus, said Democratic Caucus Vice Chairman John B. Larson of Connecticut.

Rep. Zoe Lofgren, D-Calif., said the election has sent a message to Democrats that will foster a sense of unity even among those who agree the least.

Is the Obama term on the table?

nova - prior to being a bot?

C

My wife told me the other night that her sister in Atlanta said "Of my 7 friends. Only 2 still have jobs." I don't think her sister will work again. At least in her field. Too old and too expensive.

C,

A bot? Really? Jeebus. I am stupid sometimes.

Everytime I read about some schmuck saying the recession is over, I run out and buy more canned food.

I am almost sure that President Obama talked with the Chinese before he imposed the tariff. Look at the shipping port reports, China was allowed to dump huge amounts of tires just before President Obama announced the tariff. You actually think that we didn't first discuss this first with one of our largest creditors?

9/11/01: Terrorism

9/11/09: Tariffism

Casino Capitalism: Fortune Editor Andy Serwer Says Administration Gaming System For Wall Street Titans

Casino Capitalism: Fortune Editor Andy Serwer Says Administration Gaming System For Wall Street Titans

SERWER: I mean, it's amazing to me that as we recover, you know, come out of this financial crisis, you know, you'd expect a company like Goldman Sachs maybe things are improving, make a little money. But they have a record quarter. In other words, they made more money in this three month period than they ever had in any other--

SCARBOROUGH: [archly] But they just made some good guesses, right?SERWER: Well, I don't know if it's okay or not, but I think what happened is that the government has telegraphed to Wall Street, not only Goldman Sachs but the other firms what it was doing, what was going on, what the program was, and so, essentially, it's like telling a Goldman Sachs, "Hey, put your money on 32 Black" at the casino, at the roulette wheel. And the thing spins and lo and behold, where does it end up, Joe?

SCARBOROUGH: 32 Black?

SERWER: 32 Black.

That's a pretty significant statement from the Managing Editor of a magazine that's going to have Goldman CEO Lloyd Blankfein present the "Goldman Sachs & Fortune Global Women Leaders Award at this very Summit. And it's hard to ignore the fact what Serwer describes is a risk-free system of wealth accumulation that bears no real working resemblance to the thing we know as "capitalism."

The temporary tariffs of 8-30% were originally scheduled to remain in effect until 2005. They were imposed to give U.S. steel makers protection from what a U.S. probe determined was a detrimental surge in steel imports. More than 30 steel makers had declared bankruptcy in recent years. Steel producers had originally sought up to a 40% tariff.

• I say Bush backed down.

Son of mp reports the following anecdote, a discussion with a Suzuki dealer in a small (pop. 30,000) city in the midwest:

The current interest rate is 1.9%. Financing for those under 25 years of age is "unavailable" without a "gold-plated co-signer over 25."

The dealer hasn't sold a sports bike in over 12 months, and is hanging on by selling large four-wheelers ($10,000 plus). Interestingly, the majority of these buyers are older, not interested in financing, and are paying in cash (literally $100 bills).

The dealer relates that, in a discussion with the local Ford dealer, the Ford man says sales are brisk. He is selling every unit he has ordered. However, he is keeping his inventory low, much to the chagrin of the regional Ford sales representative.

The Ford dealer says there's a rumor going around that only Ford will survive this crisis. People are concerned about parts and maintenance support, hence he thinks his sales are related to that rumor.

The dealer hasn't sold a sports bike in over 12 months, and is hanging on by selling large four-wheelers ($10,000 plus). Interestingly, the majority of these buyers are older, not interested in financing, and are paying in cash (literally $100 bills).

..........
They sell in my area to older hunters. People who still like to get out there, but maybe with less physical mobility than before. And they also have cash stashed. I htink I have more ish neighbors than I know.