We haven't seen anything yet- wait till next year when Wall Street hands its big bonuses and the unemployment rate is north of 10%.
But fortunately for this lot the American people are like sheep. All that the perps. have to do is yell -socialism and the the gullible masses will fall for it.
Seems to me there's some fundamental disconnect here related to the concept of property rights.
We've already seen enormous cracks in the social contract engendered by the bank bailouts.
But this goes all the way down to the foundation of Western civilization. [Edit: because respect for the concept of ownership is at the heart of W. Civ.]
On the other hand, perhaps the rule of law has reached its limits, where the laws are so ridiculous that no one, not even those whose economic survival depends on the rule of law, chooses to follow them.
Meanwhile, something I was just about to post on last thread before getting pigged:
I want to toss in a new meme / metaphor / historical "rhyme": The Phony War
Recall that in 1939 Germany (and the Soviet Union) invaded Poland, leading France and Britain to "declare war" on Germany (but not the Soviet Union... nor did Britain/France launch an assault on their new enemy...).
Then, for several months, nothing happened. On the surface. Of course war preparations continued behind the scenes. The French stood proud behind their Maginot Line, which they'd set up to prevent the previous war from happening again. This was the Phony War.
But then the 1940 German blitzkrieg invasion of France changed everything, with France collapsing and the Brits nearly getting wiped out at Dunkirk...
Methinks right now the Federal Reserve (and the Stock Market as well) is feeling a bit too comfortable behind their Maginot Line of liquidity-regardless-of-solvency, designed to prevent the last Great Depression. Because the macro economy continues to deteriorate, and the policies currently in place or under consideration don't lead to a trend change that I can see.
It would be exceedingly naive that someone could expect a 30% devaluation overnight and not have some kind of rebellion in the following morning here in the USA.
All the dark forces of the universe are aligned to make this a controlled devaluation that's smothered by the happy-talk "things are getting better" meme. Propaganda on this scale may very well work because the sheeple really, really want to believe. OTOH, a really subtle overlord would keep the game going longer by cutting government just enough to stave off the apocalypse, while continuing to suck the blood of the people for another generation. And meanwhile Americans have sold off the country to everybody else in the world.
edit: That's one way to end American superpower hegemony.
Watched Groundhog Day again (family favorite) a few days ago...when Bill Murray is shivering and claiming what blizzard I make the weather...I had a vision of Timmy for some reason. Hope Timmy doesn't see Bernanke as the groundhog...
I guess I just don't see the reason for the outrage about this on previous threads. Bank owned property, bank using property. Nothingburger, it seems to me.
And yet, Figueroa says she loves her job. But in this last year, she has been troubled by the constant shifting of blame that came with the sharp rise in evictions. No one wants to be seen as responsible for this large scale breakdown of people's lives and dreams.
"I get the property people blaming the real estate people, the real estate people blaming the banks, the banks blaming the homeowners. It is just this vicious circle.
"I think everybody is to blame for getting into this whole mess. It has kind of snowballed."
Following up to Nemo: This Wells Fargo thing wasn't a bando case. The woman was an agent of the bank, and the home was not abandoned.
Residents said Guyton, along with her husband and two children, often hosted guests at the home, including a large party the last weekend of August. Malibu Colony is about 25 miles from downtown Los Angeles.
Wells Fargo said in a written statement that it would conduct a thorough investigation of the allegations by neighbors, but said it wouldn't "discuss specific team member situations/issues for privacy reasons."
[...]
The bank's agreement with the prior owner required it to keep the home — a 3,800-square-foot, two-story structure built in the early 1990s — off the market for a period of time, Wells Fargo said in the statement. The bank said it planned to list the property for sale soon.
Looks to me like the bank is now offering real estate bonuses as well as the cash kind. Perhaps they "wanted the house kept up" and the Senior VP was a willing volunteer?
I'm trying to figure out why a bank that has foreclosed on a house would "sign an agreement with the prior owner" that would "require" the bank to "keep the home...off the market for a period of time". That smells worse than the dead squirrel we found under our deck in 96-degree heat last night...
But it now becomes clear: the banks own the houses. There are the banksters, with all the wealth, and the powerless, with no homes...
Wisdom speakers: Nicely put, world economy is very different beast now. Main Street is drowning in the sea of red ink while FED is trying to keep just Wall Street afloat. They think Wall Street will then save Main Street, when it is the other way around. Real economy always will eventually force the stock markets to face the reality.
@ Vonbek - The appearance of apocalypse is being avoided at all costs. No revolution, no outcry. Just a decline in the buying power of the dollar, and an increase in poverty. That's another reason for the health care push. Insured people have less incentive to take out the government, and HC becomes a growth industry. With foreigners coming here for cheap plastic surgery. And periodic bubbles to make people think they have a chance of getting ahead of the game.
@Scone: It would be exceedingly naive that someone could expect a 30% devaluation overnight and not have some kind of rebellion in the following morning here in the USA.
Depends on what is devalued against what!
Roosevelt devalued the dollar against gold (and, by extension all other gold-backed currencies) in 1933 with no rebellion. Of course, back then the U.S. was an energy-rich, industrial-exporting, agriculturally self-sufficient economy...
There are two schools of thought- the first lead by the Fed. Geithner et al is that the financial crisis is at the root of the economic problems. Fix the financial crisis and all is well. Frankly, if one believes that then the policies (liquidity, bailouts , proposed new regulations etc) put in place make perfect sense.
The alternative narrative which I believe in is that the financial crisis was the consequence of he economy. It is the decline in incomes that have forced debt accumulation and in turn the ability to service that debt. Whether the bubble blew in 2008 or some other year blowing up was inevitable. If this is in fact correct then the policies put into place are exactly wrong and will do nothing because nothing has been done to address the basic problems of the economy. We will rebuild the facade of the economy and because now it is the government going into debt the charade can be run a bit longer (after all governments have unlimited borrowing power Mr Krugman) but no amount of shoring is going to help if you are building on quick sand.
It occurred to me that every policy maker is talking about the need to have inflation and they have been doing that for the last 40 years. This is an invitation to a debt filled society. I think one of the key changes that we will have to consider is "what is bad about deflation" why do we fear it so much.
The FDIC's latest stick it to the taxpayer forbearance program:
FDIC Encourages Loss-Share Partners to Provide Forbearance to Unemployed Borrowers
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 11, 2009 Media Contact:
Andrew Gray at (202) 898-7192 angray@fdic.gov
As part of its loss-share agreement with acquirers of failed FDIC-insured institutions, the FDIC is encouraging its loss-share partner institutions to consider temporarily reducing mortgage payments for borrowers who are unemployed or underemployed. This program will provide additional foreclosure prevention alternatives to these borrowers through forbearance agreements that will give them an opportunity to regain full employment and avoid an unnecessary foreclosure.
"With more Americans suffering through unemployment or cuts in their paychecks, we believe it is crucial to offer a helping hand to avoid unnecessary and costly foreclosures. This is simply good business since foreclosure rarely benefits lenders and would cost the FDIC more money, not less," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. "This is a win-win for the borrower, who can remain in his or her home while looking for a new job, and the acquiring institution, which continues to receive payments on the loan. Ultimately, by reducing losses under our loss-share agreements, this approach helps reduce losses to the FDIC as well."
The recommendation to loss-share partners applies where unemployment, or underemployment, is the primary cause for default on a home mortgage. In such cases, the FDIC is urging its loss-share partners to consider the borrower for a temporary forbearance plan, reducing the loan payment to an affordable level for at least six months. The monthly payment during this period should be established based on an affordable payment – given the borrower's circumstances – and it should allow for reasonable living expenses after payment of mortgage-related expenses. The reductions in mortgage payments during a temporary forbearance period are not covered losses under the loss-share agreement with the FDIC, though losses incurred from subsequent permanent loan modifications are covered. If the home preservation efforts are ultimately unsuccessful, losses incurred in subsequent foreclosures or short sales also are covered losses.
Acquirers of failed insured institutions who agree to a loss-share arrangement with the FDIC must abide by the FDIC Mortgage Loan Modification program for assets purchased from the failed institution. The program's objective is to modify the terms of certain residential mortgage loans to improve affordability, increase the probability of performance, allow borrowers to remain in their homes and increase the value of the loans to the FDIC and assignees. The program provides for the modification of "qualifying loans" – those that meet certain criteria – by reducing the borrower's monthly housing debt to income ratio (DTI ratio) to no more than 31 percent at the time of the modification and eliminating adjustable interest rate and negative amortization features.
Anyone have any idea how much the market will close up today so that I can factor in further losses on my SRS position into my meal plans this weekend?
Not sure whether I should be planning on beans on toast or whether I can afford a single cocktail weenie as well.
The deal is a nothingburger except for the idea that it was a $12 Million home in Malibu that was squatted upon by an highly placed executive that threw parties there.
""With more Americans suffering through unemployment or cuts in their paychecks, we believe it is crucial to offer a helping hand to avoid unnecessary and costly foreclosures. This is simply good business since foreclosure rarely benefits lenders and would cost the FDIC more money, not less," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. "
2:00 pm : The Treasury Budget for August came in with a $111.4 billion shortfall, which isn't as severe as the $139.5 billion shortfall that had been expected.
Stocks haven't shown much of a reaction to the announcement, but Treasuries have handed back some of their recent gains. The benchmark 10-year Note is still up comfortably, though.
Guess Geithner won't be needing to sell all trillion of the 30-years after all.
BTW, if Cramer is thinking we only need to sell $1 trillion in 30-years, he's off by about a factor of 10.
The Federal Government is more exposed than anyone else to the cash-flow impact of rising short-term interest rates...
But this goes all the way down to the foundation of Western civilization. [Edit: because respect for the concept of ownership is at the heart of W. Civ.]
There are two moral bases of ownership. Ownership of that which you have created (or caused to be created) via labor and that which you have purchased from someone else.
The former is the heart of private capitalism, while the latter hides a great multitude of crimes.
"To prove a legal title to land one must trace it back to the man who stole it." -- David Lloyd George
I was watching Jim the Realtor recet interviews of some flippers operating in SD and I just wanted to take out a contract on those assholes.
The system is rigged, J6P gets chiseled paying his mortgage, at the gas pump, on his cell phone bill, at the doctor's office. Rentiers coming at him from all sides.
Do NOT trade ETFs if one person in the house-hold likes to cut their losses and the other doesn't. I wish you had told me that as well. --poic
That's between you and the boss. OTOH, at least you guys share the responsibility. My husband has put me entirely in charge of our future, which is all in Zimbabwe-dollars right now. I am doing the mad scramble to find safe havens.
The headline news locally is the induction of hometown hero Michael Jordan into the NBA Hall of Fame.
I have three minor antidotes about Jordan (Mike until changed to Michael by a UNC publicist).
1) My oldest son played with Jordan one year in Babe Ruth baseball.
2) For several years when Jordan was in HS and at UNC, my office cubicle adjoined his Father's so I got to know James fairly well. He was a hard working and respected employee whose murder was a tragedy for the GE community (although he had moved to Charlotte at the time).
3) One of my drinking buddies was Jordan's assistant JV basketball coach. According to him Michael was NOT cut from his HS team as the legend goes. He was assigned to the JV team as a 5-9 Sophomore for playing time (Laney's varsity team was very good) and physical development. He returned as a 6-4 Junior and the rest is history. I remember GE employees leaving work at 4pm to get seats for a 7pm game.
Congratulations Michael - All Wilmington is proud !
Not that we are aware of. He apparently had "contact" with the FBI a couple of years ago. Since then Casey has done nothing with his life, as usual. His latest plan, which was hatched only a month ago, was to create an investment group and buy a tropical island. The idea has since died in the cradle from neglect.
that it was a $12 Million home in Malibu that was squatted upon by an highly placed executive that threw parties there
yeah this is abuse quite similar to something you'd find in Stalinist Russia or present-day China (or heck, Putin's Russia too I guess). Pure corruption. Though I can understand the motivation; seeing that immense wealth going unused must have been a tragedy.
Do NOT trade ETFs if one person in the house-hold likes to cut their losses and the other doesn't. I wish you had told me that as well.
Hmm... 2nd principle is: "Do not HOLD double-inverse ETFs, whether or not you like to cut your losses."
You'll get eaten alive over time because of the drift.... Double-inverse of intraday performance does not equate to double-inverse of long term performance. (e.g. if the underlying goes 5% down and then 5.26% up, it's back to even. But your ETF goes down 10% and then up 10.52% and leaves you short 0.5%. Now repeat a few dozen times over the course of a summer, and you're losing real money even if the market isn't going against you...)
And yes, if there's a safe haven, do tell. Methinks we're all going to get boiled slowly with Kermit here, with no way to hop out of the pot even for those who do feel the water warming up.
Bandos at the Beach would be a great name for the commentariat rock band.
sm_landlord, I'm stuck in dollars too. You know, sometimes, you just gotta take your lumps along with everyone else. That's what I'm telling myself as I try to keep my cool.
I was fully aware of the decay feature of 2x ETFs. It doesn't always kill you. I made out like a bandit on 3 separate occasions. Unfortunately the 4th time ate the gains from the last 3.
If you come up with any brilliant strategies, please do share (assuming that the strategy is legal).
This isn't brilliant, but: sell off everything, get out of the dollar, live small, ride bubbles and put profits out of the dollar, eventually get out of the US. That's what I'm thinking, anyway.
It "appears" said party was a high ranking official of the bank and this fell under her titled department. This probably goes on quite often, corruption is now so today, ethics and what one's community would think is so last year.
Adverse possession is a concept in law which concerns title of a real property.
In common law, adverse possession is the process by which title to another's real property is acquired without compensation, by holding the property in a manner that conflicts with the true owner's rights for a specified period.
The principles of homesteading and squatter's rights embody the most basic concept of property and ownership, which can be summarized by the adage "possession is nine-tenths of the law," meaning the person who uses the property effectively owns it. Likewise, the adage, "use it or lose it," applies. The principles of homesteading and squatter's rights predate formal property laws; to a large degree, modern property law formalizes and expands these simple ideas.
"This isn't brilliant, but: sell off everything, get out of the dollar, live small, ride bubbles and put profits out of the dollar, eventually get out of the US."
I haven't figured out the "to where" part, either for me or my Zimbabwe Dollars.
to sum up, it is exactly as I have said - anything with domestic labor as a large input factor will decline in price (in USD), anything with global commodities as a large input factor will get more expensive.
Too bad we don't make anything with domestic labor any more.
As long as she doesn't end up cutting something else you'll be okay.
Though the repeated references to ky makes me think your SO might have some ideas about recreating some scenes out of Caligula to reinforce her displeasure with your financial acumen.
I know some people from the US who are in an obscure but well-regulated foreign currency. They are even reporting the income to US tax authorities.
Which reminds me of an interesting story. I ran into a woman at a party who had helped a number of her friends with immigration and settling in the US. She is not an attorney or CPA, but had helped them find places, open bank accounts, get settled. Almost everyone who she helped was wealthy, friend of a friend, etc. She was flat out astonished when I told her that naturalized citizens (and resident aliens in the US for that matter) had to pay taxes on their worldwide income. Those people who immigrated happened to be from a country which does not share data with US tax authorities, and apparently many of them had quite substantial investment income.
I asked her to do her own diligence, check with a trusted CPA, enrolled agent, or tax attorney. Don't take my word for it.
Haven't seen her at any of my friend's parties since then.
@poic: I was fully aware of the decay feature of 2x ETFs. It doesn't always kill you. I made out like a bandit on 3 separate occasions. Unfortunately the 4th time ate the gains from the last 3.
Sorry about that. But presumably you didn't eat serious losses like so many others have!
The 2x ETFs are like options, in the sense that the game overall is negative-sum for the traders, and you've got to be right about both direction and timing. Nothing evil about them, and obviously there are plenty of option traders here, so I shouldn't have been so preachy.
Noting that IYR and VNQ are remain more than half-off their peaks... at least you didn't eat that kind of loss!
In terms of shared frustration: I gave up the short side over the winter, and since I've also just about given up the long side because the fundamentals are so frightening, I'm just an observer right now. "Capital"(*) remains intact, but I'm wishing I'd had more courage at the right times!
(*) Calling electronic claims against future production ("the dollar") by the name "capital" is technically an affront to true capital (current surplus of past production over past consumption)...
I haven't figured out the "to where" part, either for me or my Zimbabwe Dollars. - SL
My husband has dual citizenship: Australia and Great Britain. I'm thinking of a beach pad in Oz for retirement. In the mean time, we're moving to New Hampshire because of low total tax burden. (Also, NH is really pretty, and low crime.)
"I'm thinking of a beach pad in Oz for retirement."
I've been attracted to Oz ever since I read "On the Beach" as a child (Strange, I know). I've never visited, maybe it's time. But I have heard that they don't really welcome older immigrants.
The reason the Wells Fargo beach house story bothers me is the only comparisons I can make to the situation are grounded in war and occupation. Military always take over the mansions and the palaces of the areas they occupy. How many Iraq pictures of Saddam's palaces being used as command centers and troop billeting have you seen?
It seems like a declaration of "to the victor go the spoils". Indicative of the entire finance sectors perspective?
One caveat, if she leased and paid a fair market value for staying in the property then it could be viewed as legitimate. If it was a take a look at the portfolio and use whatever is foreclosed or repo'd as an executive perk then it is wrong.
We'll see. I have more reasons than just investment to be in this stock.
I know that their product will be a success, I know that the market doesn't realize this fully yet, and I know that I have an insight into the facts surrounding that product that the market either doesn't know or totally appreciate, due to specialized knowledge.
I rode it up from $2. Knowing what I know, I cannot invest my money elsewhere. I've avoided talking about this with you guys in the past, and I shouldn't have mentioned it. Bad form. It's just on my mind a lot. It drives me crazy knowing that the company is good, but that macro market factors make it impossible to invest in with a sound mind.
It's my way of hedging against what I know is going to hit in the next few years to make my nest egg worthless, so I have to invest. I can't think of anywhere else to put it. But I am blabbering.
"Biderman, who says there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys, isn't the only one who has taken note. Ben Silverman, director of research at the InsiderScore.com web site that tracks trading action, said insiders are selling at their most aggressive clip since the summer of 2007."
It's the bank's property, not the employee's. She was effectively stealing from her employer.
I'll admit I haven't been following this story carefully--do we know for certain, and if so from what evidence, that she didn't have approval from her superior at Wells?
I've been attracted to Oz ever since I read "On the Beach" as a child (Strange, I know). I've never visited, maybe it's time. But I have heard that they don't really welcome older immigrants. - SL
I don't think that's true. What they want is skills. And some skills are more in demand than others. Emigration isn't all that hard, but it takes time. it's easier for me, because I'm married to an Aussie.
Every time Geithner opens his mouth, the Obama Administration loses credibility with the public.
He's the world's worst liar, and he is telling them tall. Every American with half a brain knows it.
It's incredible that less than a year after all that Obama "CHANGE" crap, we're still stuck with a liar and defender of the old regime like Timmy.
Every time Geithner is asked a question about what Paulson's crew did, he starts out by saying he had no control over it and then has to back-peddle and admit that as head of the NY Fed, he was in the thick of it.
Americans are starting to hate Geithner worse than Paulson, mainly because he's still here.
"do we know for certain, and if so from what evidence, that she didn't have approval from her superior at Wells?"
It matters not. Her supervisor doesn't own it either. Theoretically, the bank's board could approve something like that, but then read HomeGnome's comment above.
Rest don't even know who Geithner is, let alone Paulson. There was a survey in Great Britain recently...people said Winston Churchill was a myth...never existed...so was Richard the Lionhearted, but Sherlock Holmes was real. We have reached new levels here, current officials are myths in their own time.
For a bunch of contrarians, it's amazing how many of you have all your assets in dollar-denominated this, that or whatever...
Wake up.
I would like to be excluded from this crowd please!...Gold, Silver, much brass and lead...and just switched to international stocks....the only dollars I have are for goods and services and bills what little I have.
It matters not. Her supervisor doesn't own it either. Theoretically, the bank's board could approve something like that, but then read HomeGnome's comment above.
Yes, ultimately that's where approval of all corporate actions rests. Her responsibility would be to have the approval of her supervisor, not to go to the board herself, so that's why I phrased it the way I did.
HomeGnome apparently thinks he now has authority over all assets owned by any bank that has accepted a loan or other aid from the government. I disagree.
I thought that of all the regular posters on this board I was almost certainly the least committed to property rights, but even I am having trouble understanding the outrage over Wells choosing how to use and/or dispose of a house they now own.
They need to put a skull and bones warning on the prospectus as well as some sort of medical statement.
"Warning holding SRS long-term may cause weight-loss, heart palpitations, suicidal thoughts, lack of libido. Seek immediate medical attention if you notice any of the following: Red in your trading account for more than 5 concurrent days, people laughing at you"
We could all go Buddhist or really follow the way of the cross...who needs money, houses, or shoes...really the kingdom of heaven is at hand....I could walk that road too if I was sure I could get hot water every night. Think that is one of the reasons the Romans had such a hard time at first. Wasn't so much the possessions, just the lack of hot water on the missionary road.
I really hope that folks understand that the alleged activity involving the WFC exec is truly, deeply emblematic of the mindset at places like JPM, BAC, WFC, and, of course GS. They really feel like they literally own us and that millions a year are their feudal birthright. And they're right.
Definitely going to be a pizza night. I wanted pizza last night for the game, but decided to cook and wait til tonight. But I hit the lottery today, got both my boys down for an afternoon nap, hasn't happened it weeks, and figure we'll do a pizza and movie tonight. Haven't decided what to watch yet...maybe be the Disney live action Jungle Book...or the King and I...decisions, decisions.
"It's okay to have assets in dollars as long as liabilities are (a) also in dollars and (b) larger than assets. "
No, it's not OK, not if your savings are going to evaporate in real terms. I already got a dose of serious inflation in my lifetime (1970s). Not again.
I thought that of all the regular posters on this board I was almost certainly the least committed to property rights, but even I am having trouble understanding the outrage over Wells choosing how to use and/or dispose of a house they now own.
Indeed, if anyone should be all about this, it would be the WF shareholders.
Man, I couldn't sleep at night with a portfolio like that. (Granted, I'm having trouble sleeping at night with nearly any portfolio right now, but I seriously couldn't sleep if I was 100% in a single stock. More power to ya, but I wonder...)
The company can have everything going for it and still end up being a turd of an investment. The road to our current WinTel hell was paved with the corpses of dead competitors...
Everything you know can be right, and yet something else can come along that's wrong. You need some insurance against that kind of a black swan... Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered and sheeple get shorn...
If nothing else, consider that you're probably not the only one who sees the value, and someone else quite likely covets having all of that value entirely to him/herself, and may come up with an underhanded scheme (and yet get away with it legally) to make it happen.
For that matter, one of the key principals of the company could have an unexpected accident, heart attack, whatever. Or one of them could leave, taking critical intellectual property with them.
It's one thing to lose half, or 2/3, or even 9/10 of a significant sum -- the remainder is still significant and makes a good base to rebuild from. To lose everything is to have nothing, and starting over from scratch is a lot harder.
Boys are a little young for Conan, but trust me it is a family favorite, and the books will be required reading as well...I love Howard's work. Still hoping the new Solomon Kane movie gets released in the states. Like the first Planet of the Apes movie, probably do that one in a few years.
Watching the markets make their daily spike into the close, I am starting to wonder how long before everybody starts doing a trade based on that behavior? I've already seen it discussed on a couple of blog comment sections...buy puts against S&P (or whatever stock) a few hours before the close, when the market is down. Sell the puts into the close.
Isn't the contrarian play to be long dollars and short gold? - Y
I just bought GOLDX yesterday on the theory that it's kind of a commodity hedgie kind of thing. This is mostly mining stocks. It's not the best, but I have limited options in the 401k.
I wouldn't assume that 'dollar shock' would necessarily take rents upwards with them... rents seem dependent on local incomes in a way which may not correlate with pressures on USD via commodities, forex, collectibles etc.
Shielding your young children from graphically violent movies will only hurt them in the long run. What happens when the little kid across the street who has watched Conan hits your kid repeatedly with a stick and your kid doesn't know how to respond? Poor parenting. Poor, poor parenting...
As a bank employee, I know that using the bank's REOs is a no-no. Not just from the bank's internal ethics rules, but from the regulators. There might even be specific laws against it.
Some of you may say "oh, but the bank owns it", but imagine if this kind of behavior was allowed, and become widespread. Say you are late on your mortgage, and the bank knew it could use your house as a corporate perk. Bang, you are out. Another guy in the same situation whose house is not as attractive as a party palace (say it is a nice mansion, but just no on the beach)? "We'll work things out".
This sort of thing just really opens the whole process up for abuse, and as I said might even be restricted by the regulators (I know the head of our mortgage division is not even allowed to get a mortgage from us, he had to use a competitor, by law).
At my company, we are not even allowed to bid on REOs, nor are any of our immediate relatives (parents, siblings, etc).
I am guessing the regulators are not too happy to be reading about this.
1) We weasel out of this mess by hook and by crook, everybody world-wide gets on board to save the American way of life, which Dick Cheney has assured us is non-negotiable.
"What happens when the little kid across the street who has watched Conan hits your kid repeatedly with a stick and your kid doesn't know how to respond?"
Somehow they knew how to respond before tv.
I've always been a bit flummoxed by the American way of letting their children see any level of abhorent violence on TV, but by god show a bit of skin and you're in a world of hurt as a tv company.
@sm_landlord "It's okay to have assets in dollars as long as liabilities are (a) also in dollars and (b) larger than assets. "
No, it's not OK, not if your savings are going to evaporate in real terms. I already got a dose of serious inflation in my lifetime (1970s). Not again.
My savings won't evaporate in real terms because I'm using the income from them to pay off liabilities that are in identical currency units. If we get a real inflation, interest rates will rise and the earnings of the savings will massively outstrip the interest cost of the fixed-rate long-term debt.
My employment income may decline in real terms, but I don't have direct control over that.
Anyway, I'll be happy to make a shift in portfolio when I actually see the serious inflation.
But I think when you state that you've already seen a dose of serious inflation in the 70s, and "not again", you've answered your question -- the bulk of the global elite lived through that period, and will avoid treading the same road again.
"I've always been a bit flummoxed by the American way of letting their children see any level of abhorent violence on TV, but by god show a bit of skin and you're in a world of hurt as a tv company."
There's no flummoxing needed. It goes along with being too lazy to get your fat ass off the couch and read a book, work on ABCs, or walk to the park.
"the bulk of the global elite lived through that period"
yes, but the boomers were too young, self-absorbed and drugged-up to learn anything from the 70s. well, actually, that applies to the 90s too, doesn't it?
Elvis, it isn't the violence, and trust me my kids are already mastering the art of melee between themselves, and my 19month old is very protective of his older brother at the playground. My children are very perceptive, there are some ideas about human nature in the movie, about civilization itself, that I am not prepared to deal with yet. I already mentioned that my 4 year old asked me why god killed all the animals during the flood, if it was man that was bad...I am still searching for answers myself, hard to come up with responses to all the questions. I was raised in a house that censored everything, don't plan on repeating that, but I do want them a little older before we discuss some ideas.
On another note, I don't envy you guys. We have a little savings, but we are basically poor. Have a little bit of a safety net with my parents, but if it all goes south, figure I will let the red man in me take over, and follow the path of my ancestors and hunt and fish for awhile. Strangely enough, that is my dad's plan too, and they are fairly well off.
The minute you take public funding, it all changes. The Wells exec's egregious behavior is a great example for the divorce in risk/reward between the haves and the havenots.
I was in the UK reading a tabloid during the Superbowl some years back, which had on page 3, twice as much breast meat as Janet Jackson showed during the Super Bowl, The next day there was another double breasted beauty on page 3...
I bought this shit yesterday because I think the sheeple will keep it bubbly. I have zero belief in this shit, I'm just riding the wave. It's a fucked up world, what can I say.
What a strange world, with long treasurys pricing in low inflation outlook. Yet gold spiking.
I was curious what unemployment was back during the gold-price bubble of 1978, when we had a very obvious high-inflation era. Unemployment was actually at its cyclical low when the gold price peaked. The price of gold crashed as the unemployment rate headed up to over 10%.
UC proposes 32 percent increase in student fees UC officials on Thursday released a plan that calls for a 15 percent increase in basic student fees starting in the winter 2010 term, followed by another 15 percent hike next fall. If approved, in-state undergraduate fees would rise by 32 percent to $10,302.
"What a strange world, with long treasurys pricing in low inflation outlook."
I found this puzzling back in '05, too. But an insane (or, really, self-dealing) fed printing and buying every treasury necessary to goose the market (and assist in general extortion by GS and friends from the treasury) explains it quite nicely.
HomeGnome....brought back memories...we took a family trip to the Netherlands, 6th grade....kind of hard to censor everyday life in Holland. Thought my mom would have a heart attack at the beach. Great trip. That video by the way, was scary. We listen to a lot of classical, helps memory and attention spans, plus really good to put kids to sleep at night. But we have our rock and roll and jazz nights too...but no hip-hop.
I'm sure this kind of observation is very common, but here goes anyway: the other day we were at a cafeteria, and a fat little ~4 yo girl goes up to the cashier and complains that the cashier forgot to giver her her drinking glass. She gets the glass from the cashier, goes to the soda fountain area, fills it with coke and some other sode (50% mixed) and then grabs the sugar from the coffee area and proceeds to dump lots of sugar into her drink. I felt like throwing up.
Her mom's response? "Honey you don't need all that sugar in there!". Does mom get off her fat ass and actually do anything about it? No. Kid proceeded to consume the beverage.
I'm not sure it's appropriate for government but something in me feels like that should be illegal. You can't beat kids, but allowing them to get life-threatening diabetes, damaged bones and teeth, and bad kidneys is OK.
SM,
It comes down to social class when you're talking about repercussions. If a regular line pulic employee did that, their @ss would be in a sling and they might be trying to avoid talking to the DA. If a deputy director, VP, chancellor, etc does it, they get to charge the state 3500 for new blinds and 120k for a dogrun. What needs to be avoided is publically acknowledging that divide in personal responsibility or all hell breaks loose.
All you need to know about the late 1970's-early 80's precious metal markets...
Silver was $6 an oz on early 1979, and was $48 by early 1980 because of the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market, a classic financial bubble that went up 8x in less than a year's time~
Gold was $275 an oz in early 1979, and got to $825 by early 1980, largely on the coattails of Silver going up, it was a bit player back then.
The roles are completely reversed today, and there is no one buyer for gold, the demand is world-wide and deep.
Basel,
I'm disgusted too. I'd love to spill the dirt on the who, how, and why of the increases but lunch is over and someone around here has to... you know... actually work >; )
HomeGnome,
Bingo, dad's advice about raising kids, was raise them like a dog. Of course our dogs(big Old English Sheepdogs) were pampered indoor kings who slept in beds and ate dinner leftovers every night. Worse, our second, was like my brother. Did everything together. Was honestly my best friend during high school. Killed me when he died a few years ago (lived a long time for a sheepdog though, 17 years).
FCs are an interesting beast up in the Bay Area. I have a lot of Chinese/Indian friends who just will not touch them no matter how good of a deal.
The house next to us is in FC and you could get a great deal on it. Put maybe 40k into it to fix it up nice. It's just setting there and yet every other house in the neighborhood that was on the market this summer sold quite easily to almost exclusively Chinese/Indian buyers.
Jas has been mostly right so far regarding Treasury yields and gold. He also argued years ago that we were facing a Kondratiev winter.
Mish argues that gold is protection from credit/currency stress (which we have), deflation (which we have), and hyperinflation, but NOT low inflation. Recent history seems to support this idea.
"And yet, Figueroa says she loves her job. " Because although "Figueroa has found her caseload in the last year getting heavier and harder to bear," the sheriff gets paid per eviction.
Ed Harrison argues that we could get a couple of years of growth out of money printing, especially with the reserve currency. He quotes Mark Faber: "Don’t underestimate the power of printing money".
"in many eastern cultures, a foreclosure is a sign of bad luck. don't want to have that negative mojo disrupting the feng shui."
They also just don't want to buy used houses from what I can tell. One good Indian friend of mine is battling with his wife over this. He is fine with a FC, she wants absolutely brand new.
it was quite high relative to the start of the bull in late '01.
the rise of crude in the face of stubbornly low rates was more eye-catching in '05 (and early '08, of course), though, I suppose.
also, in terms of gold - those high prices happened very, very briefly. gold only traded above $600 for a period of weeks, if not days in January '80. As I constantly post here, commodities need to be viewed with long, long MAs.
Ed Harrison argues that we could get a couple of years of growth out of money printing, especially with the reserve currency.
i don't think Ed Harrison factors in the downward pressure from demographics. pretty easy mistake since it hasn't been an issue in post-war analysis, until now.
Curry...
My wife loves Indian food, but I can't eat curry, even the smell of it. I love cilantro though, and she can't stand that. We have take out nights where we end up hitting multiple locations to get everyone's special food fix. Those days may be gone soon.
I share Ed Harrison's uncertainty about whether we'll get some sort of boom. I also share his fear that, if we do get some sort of boom now, the next bust will be even more severe.
I prefer the smell of curry over the smell of animal waste. Although given the choice, I'd pick a used house that smells like the forest after a short thunderstorm or a house that smells like a tailgate party.
My wife likes to cook the little stinky Chinese sausages, plus we eat Indian food a lot. I've also got my take to work bag that our cat managed to spray two years ago; so I've got all bases covered.
Some of you may say "oh, but the bank owns it", but imagine if this kind of behavior was allowed, and become widespread. Say you are late on your mortgage, and the bank knew it could use your house as a corporate perk. Bang, you are out. Another guy in the same situation whose house is not as attractive as a party palace (say it is a nice mansion, but just no on the beach)? "We'll work things out".
Is it really different in substance from a a bank noticing that you have a pile of equity in the house (bang, your out) vs somebody who has no equity in the house (let's see if we can work something out, ie. squeeze more $$ out of you.)
So that's what you call that Wells Fargo exec?
those were open houses.
why am I not surprised?
We haven't seen anything yet- wait till next year when Wall Street hands its big bonuses and the unemployment rate is north of 10%.
But fortunately for this lot the American people are like sheep. All that the perps. have to do is yell -socialism and the the gullible masses will fall for it.
tim geithner is an ass
Here! Here!
Seems to me there's some fundamental disconnect here related to the concept of property rights.
We've already seen enormous cracks in the social contract engendered by the bank bailouts.
But this goes all the way down to the foundation of Western civilization. [Edit: because respect for the concept of ownership is at the heart of W. Civ.]
On the other hand, perhaps the rule of law has reached its limits, where the laws are so ridiculous that no one, not even those whose economic survival depends on the rule of law, chooses to follow them.
Meanwhile, something I was just about to post on last thread before getting pigged:
I want to toss in a new meme / metaphor / historical "rhyme": The Phony War
Recall that in 1939 Germany (and the Soviet Union) invaded Poland, leading France and Britain to "declare war" on Germany (but not the Soviet Union... nor did Britain/France launch an assault on their new enemy...).
Then, for several months, nothing happened. On the surface. Of course war preparations continued behind the scenes. The French stood proud behind their Maginot Line, which they'd set up to prevent the previous war from happening again. This was the Phony War.
But then the 1940 German blitzkrieg invasion of France changed everything, with France collapsing and the Brits nearly getting wiped out at Dunkirk...
Methinks right now the Federal Reserve (and the Stock Market as well) is feeling a bit too comfortable behind their Maginot Line of liquidity-regardless-of-solvency, designed to prevent the last Great Depression. Because the macro economy continues to deteriorate, and the policies currently in place or under consideration don't lead to a trend change that I can see.
I hope I'm wrong!
I thought rent skimming was a form of fraud. Are the sheriffs arresting homeowners when the renters show they just paid rent?
rocky: you forgot to finish the word - add on 'hole'
It would be exceedingly naive that someone could expect a 30% devaluation overnight and not have some kind of rebellion in the following morning here in the USA.
All the dark forces of the universe are aligned to make this a controlled devaluation that's smothered by the happy-talk "things are getting better" meme. Propaganda on this scale may very well work because the sheeple really, really want to believe. OTOH, a really subtle overlord would keep the game going longer by cutting government just enough to stave off the apocalypse, while continuing to suck the blood of the people for another generation. And meanwhile Americans have sold off the country to everybody else in the world.
edit: That's one way to end American superpower hegemony.
It all comes of not prosecuting Casey Serin enough.
Watched Groundhog Day again (family favorite) a few days ago...when Bill Murray is shivering and claiming what blizzard I make the weather...I had a vision of Timmy for some reason. Hope Timmy doesn't see Bernanke as the groundhog...
Accidental Landlords are an accident waiting to happen...
I guess I just don't see the reason for the outrage about this on previous threads. Bank owned property, bank using property. Nothingburger, it seems to me.
Bankster's behaving like overly entitled scum.. is anyone surprised ?
And yet, Figueroa says she loves her job. But in this last year, she has been troubled by the constant shifting of blame that came with the sharp rise in evictions. No one wants to be seen as responsible for this large scale breakdown of people's lives and dreams.
"I get the property people blaming the real estate people, the real estate people blaming the banks, the banks blaming the homeowners. It is just this vicious circle.
"I think everybody is to blame for getting into this whole mess. It has kind of snowballed."
Words of wisdom from the public servant.
The second story makes no sense - by law, tenants have 90 days or the remainder of the lease term.
Following up to Nemo: This Wells Fargo thing wasn't a bando case. The woman was an agent of the bank, and the home was not abandoned.
Residents said Guyton, along with her husband and two children, often hosted guests at the home, including a large party the last weekend of August. Malibu Colony is about 25 miles from downtown Los Angeles.
Wells Fargo said in a written statement that it would conduct a thorough investigation of the allegations by neighbors, but said it wouldn't "discuss specific team member situations/issues for privacy reasons."
[...]
The bank's agreement with the prior owner required it to keep the home — a 3,800-square-foot, two-story structure built in the early 1990s — off the market for a period of time, Wells Fargo said in the statement. The bank said it planned to list the property for sale soon.
Looks to me like the bank is now offering real estate bonuses as well as the cash kind. Perhaps they "wanted the house kept up" and the Senior VP was a willing volunteer?
I'm trying to figure out why a bank that has foreclosed on a house would "sign an agreement with the prior owner" that would "require" the bank to "keep the home...off the market for a period of time". That smells worse than the dead squirrel we found under our deck in 96-degree heat last night...
But it now becomes clear: the banks own the houses. There are the banksters, with all the wealth, and the powerless, with no homes...
I wonder if the word nothingburger has a french etymology from circa 1790s
.....gives new desire to totally empty the home so the bank elite can't use it........
I'll admit that I'm not familiar with Malibu, but the woman's first name might give a hint at why the neighbors were pissed...
1788, actually
Wisdom speakers: Nicely put, world economy is very different beast now. Main Street is drowning in the sea of red ink while FED is trying to keep just Wall Street afloat. They think Wall Street will then save Main Street, when it is the other way around. Real economy always will eventually force the stock markets to face the reality.
@ Vonbek - The appearance of apocalypse is being avoided at all costs. No revolution, no outcry. Just a decline in the buying power of the dollar, and an increase in poverty. That's another reason for the health care push. Insured people have less incentive to take out the government, and HC becomes a growth industry. With foreigners coming here for cheap plastic surgery. And periodic bubbles to make people think they have a chance of getting ahead of the game.
@Scone: It would be exceedingly naive that someone could expect a 30% devaluation overnight and not have some kind of rebellion in the following morning here in the USA.
Depends on what is devalued against what!
Roosevelt devalued the dollar against gold (and, by extension all other gold-backed currencies) in 1933 with no rebellion. Of course, back then the U.S. was an energy-rich, industrial-exporting, agriculturally self-sufficient economy...
Nice article by Niall Ferguson in Newsweek...
Ewrongamists don't like him much because he relies upon history to state his case, a opposed to whatever metric ex-experts rely upon nowadays~
I think you are exactly right-
There are two schools of thought- the first lead by the Fed. Geithner et al is that the financial crisis is at the root of the economic problems. Fix the financial crisis and all is well. Frankly, if one believes that then the policies (liquidity, bailouts , proposed new regulations etc) put in place make perfect sense.
The alternative narrative which I believe in is that the financial crisis was the consequence of he economy. It is the decline in incomes that have forced debt accumulation and in turn the ability to service that debt. Whether the bubble blew in 2008 or some other year blowing up was inevitable. If this is in fact correct then the policies put into place are exactly wrong and will do nothing because nothing has been done to address the basic problems of the economy. We will rebuild the facade of the economy and because now it is the government going into debt the charade can be run a bit longer (after all governments have unlimited borrowing power Mr Krugman) but no amount of shoring is going to help if you are building on quick sand.
It occurred to me that every policy maker is talking about the need to have inflation and they have been doing that for the last 40 years. This is an invitation to a debt filled society. I think one of the key changes that we will have to consider is "what is bad about deflation" why do we fear it so much.
The FDIC's latest stick it to the taxpayer forbearance program:
FDIC Encourages Loss-Share Partners to Provide Forbearance to Unemployed Borrowers
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 11, 2009 Media Contact:
Andrew Gray at (202) 898-7192
angray@fdic.gov
As part of its loss-share agreement with acquirers of failed FDIC-insured institutions, the FDIC is encouraging its loss-share partner institutions to consider temporarily reducing mortgage payments for borrowers who are unemployed or underemployed. This program will provide additional foreclosure prevention alternatives to these borrowers through forbearance agreements that will give them an opportunity to regain full employment and avoid an unnecessary foreclosure.
"With more Americans suffering through unemployment or cuts in their paychecks, we believe it is crucial to offer a helping hand to avoid unnecessary and costly foreclosures. This is simply good business since foreclosure rarely benefits lenders and would cost the FDIC more money, not less," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. "This is a win-win for the borrower, who can remain in his or her home while looking for a new job, and the acquiring institution, which continues to receive payments on the loan. Ultimately, by reducing losses under our loss-share agreements, this approach helps reduce losses to the FDIC as well."
The recommendation to loss-share partners applies where unemployment, or underemployment, is the primary cause for default on a home mortgage. In such cases, the FDIC is urging its loss-share partners to consider the borrower for a temporary forbearance plan, reducing the loan payment to an affordable level for at least six months. The monthly payment during this period should be established based on an affordable payment – given the borrower's circumstances – and it should allow for reasonable living expenses after payment of mortgage-related expenses. The reductions in mortgage payments during a temporary forbearance period are not covered losses under the loss-share agreement with the FDIC, though losses incurred from subsequent permanent loan modifications are covered. If the home preservation efforts are ultimately unsuccessful, losses incurred in subsequent foreclosures or short sales also are covered losses.
Acquirers of failed insured institutions who agree to a loss-share arrangement with the FDIC must abide by the FDIC Mortgage Loan Modification program for assets purchased from the failed institution. The program's objective is to modify the terms of certain residential mortgage loans to improve affordability, increase the probability of performance, allow borrowers to remain in their homes and increase the value of the loans to the FDIC and assignees. The program provides for the modification of "qualifying loans" – those that meet certain criteria – by reducing the borrower's monthly housing debt to income ratio (DTI ratio) to no more than 31 percent at the time of the modification and eliminating adjustable interest rate and negative amortization features.
Maybe my moral compass is out of whack from reading too much Casey Serin, but I can't get why people are so outraged about this.
I'm assuming the story goes like this.
Am I missing something? Sure, #4 is bad, but compared to some of the crap we've seen, it's nothing.
Anyone have any idea how much the market will close up today so that I can factor in further losses on my SRS position into my meal plans this weekend?
Not sure whether I should be planning on beans on toast or whether I can afford a single cocktail weenie as well.
so that I can factor in further losses on my SRS position - poic
Sorry, man. I did try to warn you.
Disempowered Paper Pusher (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/11/2009 - 11:27 am
Am I missing something? Sure, #4 is bad, but compared to some of the crap we've seen, it's nothing.
It isn't like WFC accepted public funding or anything. Oh... wait....
Cramer just said we should issue $1 trillion in 30-year right now. my, my. i'll never convince some members of my family to jettison cnbs.
The deal is a nothingburger except for the idea that it was a $12 Million home in Malibu that was squatted upon by an highly placed executive that threw parties there.
It all comes of not prosecuting Casey Serin enough.
I lost track of that soap opera. Was he prosecuted at all?
""With more Americans suffering through unemployment or cuts in their paychecks, we believe it is crucial to offer a helping hand to avoid unnecessary and costly foreclosures. This is simply good business since foreclosure rarely benefits lenders and would cost the FDIC more money, not less," said FDIC Chairman Sheila C. Bair. "
Sheila Bair, the pump master of USS Titanic.
"
so that I can factor in further losses on my SRS position - poic
Sorry, man. I did try to warn you. Wink
"
I know but what you didn't warn me was the following.
Do NOT trade ETFs if one person in the house-hold likes to cut their losses and the other doesn't. I wish you had told me that as well.
Briefing.com:
2:00 pm : The Treasury Budget for August came in with a $111.4 billion shortfall, which isn't as severe as the $139.5 billion shortfall that had been expected.
Stocks haven't shown much of a reaction to the announcement, but Treasuries have handed back some of their recent gains. The benchmark 10-year Note is still up comfortably, though.
Guess Geithner won't be needing to sell all trillion of the 30-years after all.
BTW, if Cramer is thinking we only need to sell $1 trillion in 30-years, he's off by about a factor of 10.
The Federal Government is more exposed than anyone else to the cash-flow impact of rising short-term interest rates...
I hope there's a matinee showing of the Bair Which Project today.
But this goes all the way down to the foundation of Western civilization. [Edit: because respect for the concept of ownership is at the heart of W. Civ.]
There are two moral bases of ownership. Ownership of that which you have created (or caused to be created) via labor and that which you have purchased from someone else.
The former is the heart of private capitalism, while the latter hides a great multitude of crimes.
"To prove a legal title to land one must trace it back to the man who stole it." -- David Lloyd George
I was watching Jim the Realtor recet interviews of some flippers operating in SD and I just wanted to take out a contract on those assholes.
The system is rigged, J6P gets chiseled paying his mortgage, at the gas pump, on his cell phone bill, at the doctor's office. Rentiers coming at him from all sides.
I still don't get it R.D..
It sounds like the couple had a pile(7,8, figures?) of other debt with WFC.
They worked out some sort of swap agreement.
Is the non-mortgage side of WFC getting stealth bailout from the mortgage side with this deal? I can't see how that would work.
It looks like an individual behaving badly to me.
Do NOT trade ETFs if one person in the house-hold likes to cut their losses and the other doesn't. I wish you had told me that as well. --poic
That's between you and the boss.
OTOH, at least you guys share the responsibility. My husband has put me entirely in charge of our future, which is all in Zimbabwe-dollars right now. I am doing the mad scramble to find safe havens.
Completely off topic:
The headline news locally is the induction of hometown hero Michael Jordan into the NBA Hall of Fame.
I have three minor antidotes about Jordan (Mike until changed to Michael by a UNC publicist).
1) My oldest son played with Jordan one year in Babe Ruth baseball.
2) For several years when Jordan was in HS and at UNC, my office cubicle adjoined his Father's so I got to know James fairly well. He was a hard working and respected employee whose murder was a tragedy for the GE community (although he had moved to Charlotte at the time).
3) One of my drinking buddies was Jordan's assistant JV basketball coach. According to him Michael was NOT cut from his HS team as the legend goes. He was assigned to the JV team as a 5-9 Sophomore for playing time (Laney's varsity team was very good) and physical development. He returned as a 6-4 Junior and the rest is history. I remember GE employees leaving work at 4pm to get seats for a 7pm game.
Congratulations Michael - All Wilmington is proud !
Jim
"BTW, if Cramer is thinking we only need to sell $1 trillion in 30-years, he's off by about a factor of 10."
Cramer is floating ideas as requested by GS and the Treasury. This is how it works. Throw a bunch of shit at the wall and see what sticks.
Not that we are aware of. He apparently had "contact" with the FBI a couple of years ago. Since then Casey has done nothing with his life, as usual. His latest plan, which was hatched only a month ago, was to create an investment group and buy a tropical island. The idea has since died in the cradle from neglect.
that it was a $12 Million home in Malibu that was squatted upon by an highly placed executive that threw parties there
yeah this is abuse quite similar to something you'd find in Stalinist Russia or present-day China (or heck, Putin's Russia too I guess). Pure corruption. Though I can understand the motivation; seeing that immense wealth going unused must have been a tragedy.
I'm telling you I KNOW we can pull off a green close.
** tip-toes to bathroom to make sure ky gel is prepped **
"My husband has put me entirely in charge of our future, which is all in Zimbabwe-dollars right now. I am doing the mad scramble to find safe havens."
If you come up with any brilliant strategies, please do share (assuming that the strategy is legal). Many of us are in the same boat.
Thnx, NC Jim for info.
Do NOT trade ETFs if one person in the house-hold likes to cut their losses and the other doesn't. I wish you had told me that as well.
Hmm... 2nd principle is: "Do not HOLD double-inverse ETFs, whether or not you like to cut your losses."
You'll get eaten alive over time because of the drift.... Double-inverse of intraday performance does not equate to double-inverse of long term performance. (e.g. if the underlying goes 5% down and then 5.26% up, it's back to even. But your ETF goes down 10% and then up 10.52% and leaves you short 0.5%. Now repeat a few dozen times over the course of a summer, and you're losing real money even if the market isn't going against you...)
And yes, if there's a safe haven, do tell. Methinks we're all going to get boiled slowly with Kermit here, with no way to hop out of the pot even for those who do feel the water warming up.
Now that's an oxymoron...
"safe haven".
Bandos at the Beach would be a great name for the commentariat rock band.
sm_landlord, I'm stuck in dollars too. You know, sometimes, you just gotta take your lumps along with everyone else. That's what I'm telling myself as I try to keep my cool.
"I'm telling you I KNOW we can pull off a green close."
My mining shares are
Oil companies not doing as well, unfortunately.
Stories like this one in Malibu are what motivate the hoi ploy to pay attention for all the wrong reasons, but at least they are paying attention...
Will Euro-pacific mutual fund, against US dollar devaluation work? Thanks!
Damn it, it's a significant conflict of interest.
Her ass should be put into orbit.
Wisdom Seeker,
I was fully aware of the decay feature of 2x ETFs. It doesn't always kill you. I made out like a bandit on 3 separate occasions. Unfortunately the 4th time ate the gains from the last 3.
Oh well, you live and you learn.
If you come up with any brilliant strategies, please do share (assuming that the strategy is legal).
This isn't brilliant, but: sell off everything, get out of the dollar, live small, ride bubbles and put profits out of the dollar, eventually get out of the US. That's what I'm thinking, anyway.
Not sure whether I should be planning on beans on toast or whether I can afford a single cocktail weenie as well.
Go for the Cocktail Weenie, beans will give you Gas.
Do you mean Peter Schiff's fund? I thought it was having trouble too, after a great year in 2008?
Do my eyes deceive me, or is GLOD sticking above 1k?!?
My best long-short play has been my CDs. Much less angst.
Bathroom is dated and needs updating:
http://www.106malibucolony.com/gallery/medium/106MalibuColony29.jpg
"Go for the Cocktail Weenie, beans will give you Gas. "
Not if I remove the skin of each bean by hand it won't (:
Anyways, what's wrong with being long gas?? I thought long commodity was the play here?
I had such bad gas last week that OPEC was cold-calling me, asking if i'd like to be a supplier.
It "appears" said party was a high ranking official of the bank and this fell under her titled department. This probably goes on quite often, corruption is now so today, ethics and what one's community would think is so last year.
Adverse possession is a concept in law which concerns title of a real property.
In common law, adverse possession is the process by which title to another's real property is acquired without compensation, by holding the property in a manner that conflicts with the true owner's rights for a specified period.
"Damn it, it's a significant conflict of interest."
It's the bank's property, not the employee's. She was effectively stealing from her employer.
"Her ass should be put into orbit. "
If they fire her, she'll be ineligible for unemployment. Or maybe some jail time? She could throw parties for the inmates.
Malibu: A way of Lie
The principles of homesteading and squatter's rights embody the most basic concept of property and ownership, which can be summarized by the adage "possession is nine-tenths of the law," meaning the person who uses the property effectively owns it. Likewise, the adage, "use it or lose it," applies. The principles of homesteading and squatter's rights predate formal property laws; to a large degree, modern property law formalizes and expands these simple ideas.
Bandos at the Beach would be a great name for the commentariat rock band
--I second the motion.
Re: Bandos at the Beach
Shit no, it's a mini series
"This isn't brilliant, but: sell off everything, get out of the dollar, live small, ride bubbles and put profits out of the dollar, eventually get out of the US."
I haven't figured out the "to where" part, either for me or my Zimbabwe Dollars.
to sum up, it is exactly as I have said - anything with domestic labor as a large input factor will decline in price (in USD), anything with global commodities as a large input factor will get more expensive.
Too bad we don't make anything with domestic labor any more.
As long as she doesn't end up cutting something else you'll be okay.
Though the repeated references to ky makes me think your SO might have some ideas about recreating some scenes out of Caligula to reinforce her displeasure with your financial acumen.
As CSC might say "its all good"
Sm Landlord,
I know some people from the US who are in an obscure but well-regulated foreign currency. They are even reporting the income to US tax authorities.
Which reminds me of an interesting story. I ran into a woman at a party who had helped a number of her friends with immigration and settling in the US. She is not an attorney or CPA, but had helped them find places, open bank accounts, get settled. Almost everyone who she helped was wealthy, friend of a friend, etc. She was flat out astonished when I told her that naturalized citizens (and resident aliens in the US for that matter) had to pay taxes on their worldwide income. Those people who immigrated happened to be from a country which does not share data with US tax authorities, and apparently many of them had quite substantial investment income.
I asked her to do her own diligence, check with a trusted CPA, enrolled agent, or tax attorney. Don't take my word for it.
Haven't seen her at any of my friend's parties since then.
@poic: I was fully aware of the decay feature of 2x ETFs. It doesn't always kill you. I made out like a bandit on 3 separate occasions. Unfortunately the 4th time ate the gains from the last 3.
Sorry about that. But presumably you didn't eat serious losses like so many others have!
The 2x ETFs are like options, in the sense that the game overall is negative-sum for the traders, and you've got to be right about both direction and timing. Nothing evil about them, and obviously there are plenty of option traders here, so I shouldn't have been so preachy.
Noting that IYR and VNQ are remain more than half-off their peaks... at least you didn't eat that kind of loss!
In terms of shared frustration: I gave up the short side over the winter, and since I've also just about given up the long side because the fundamentals are so frightening, I'm just an observer right now. "Capital"(*) remains intact, but I'm wishing I'd had more courage at the right times!
(*) Calling electronic claims against future production ("the dollar") by the name "capital" is technically an affront to true capital (current surplus of past production over past consumption)...
27400 PACIFIC COAST Hwy #106, Malibu, CA 90265 | MLS# 09-389085
I haven't figured out the "to where" part, either for me or my Zimbabwe Dollars. - SL
My husband has dual citizenship: Australia and Great Britain. I'm thinking of a beach pad in Oz for retirement. In the mean time, we're moving to New Hampshire because of low total tax burden. (Also, NH is really pretty, and low crime.)
RERGX ?
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Russia, China right to diversify fx reserves-officials
WRAPUP 1-Russia, China right to diversify fx reserves-officials
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"I'm thinking of a beach pad in Oz for retirement."
I've been attracted to Oz ever since I read "On the Beach" as a child (Strange, I know). I've never visited, maybe it's time. But I have heard that they don't really welcome older immigrants.
Wisdom Speaker - I still have my life savings in HGSI common stock. Think of how terrified I am at a market drop. Very unnerving.
Hoops,
"I still have my life savings in HGSI common stock."
You have considered diversifying, I hope?
Jumping in late in the thread but what is happening to my oil prices? Down 4%?
"Sorry about that. But presumably you didn't eat serious losses like so many others have!"
Nothing serious, just all my profits since the collapse inside my trading account. lol
Well that wasn't just SRS but a few other short trades as well.
Most everything was in cash as I've been basically since mid 2007.
I still have my life savings in HGSI common stock.
Why, Hoops?! Buy some puts on it at least!
The reason the Wells Fargo beach house story bothers me is the only comparisons I can make to the situation are grounded in war and occupation. Military always take over the mansions and the palaces of the areas they occupy. How many Iraq pictures of Saddam's palaces being used as command centers and troop billeting have you seen?
It seems like a declaration of "to the victor go the spoils". Indicative of the entire finance sectors perspective?
One caveat, if she leased and paid a fair market value for staying in the property then it could be viewed as legitimate. If it was a take a look at the portfolio and use whatever is foreclosed or repo'd as an executive perk then it is wrong.
"Wisdom Speaker - I still have my life savings in HGSI common stock. Think of how terrified I am at a market drop. Very unnerving."
I sat through a 10 to 300 down to 30 move at the biotech both myself and my wife worked at.
I seriously hope you don't have all your eggs in one biotech basket. I know a lot of people who learned the hard-way what that can be like.
For a bunch of contrarians, it's amazing how many of you have all your assets in dollar-denominated this, that or whatever...
Wake up.
and natgas down 8%, after its +15% move yesterday.
Silver, liquor, brass and lead.
"For a bunch of contrarians, it's amazing how many of you have all your assets in dollar-denominated this, that or whatever..."
I didn't say I wasn't hedged.
But hedges can be expensive and risky. The next step is out.
Picking back up on a discussion thread from last night on Iran and Israel - the clock be ticking: ANALYSIS / Clock ticking for Iran as Israel appears ready for strike - Haaretz - Israel News
Has Wells Fargo repaid the 25 BILLION USD TARP yet?
We'll see. I have more reasons than just investment to be in this stock.
I know that their product will be a success, I know that the market doesn't realize this fully yet, and I know that I have an insight into the facts surrounding that product that the market either doesn't know or totally appreciate, due to specialized knowledge.
I rode it up from $2. Knowing what I know, I cannot invest my money elsewhere. I've avoided talking about this with you guys in the past, and I shouldn't have mentioned it. Bad form. It's just on my mind a lot. It drives me crazy knowing that the company is good, but that macro market factors make it impossible to invest in with a sound mind.
It's my way of hedging against what I know is going to hit in the next few years to make my nest egg worthless, so I have to invest. I can't think of anywhere else to put it. But I am blabbering.
Nope
"Biderman, who says there were $31 worth of insider stock sales in August for every $1 of insider buys, isn't the only one who has taken note. Ben Silverman, director of research at the InsiderScore.com web site that tracks trading action, said insiders are selling at their most aggressive clip since the summer of 2007."
Yep sounds like I'd be a buyer long here.
/snark
+1 Long Liquor
It keeps well. It is bartered well. It has multiple purposes. I like that hedge!
Also, long cheap cancer sticks is a good bartering tool.
at natgas down 8%, after its +15% move yesterday.
Oil found is being shorted then?
It's the bank's property, not the employee's. She was effectively stealing from her employer.
I'll admit I haven't been following this story carefully--do we know for certain, and if so from what evidence, that she didn't have approval from her superior at Wells?
It's the things that you "know" that get you killed.
I've been attracted to Oz ever since I read "On the Beach" as a child (Strange, I know). I've never visited, maybe it's time. But I have heard that they don't really welcome older immigrants. - SL
I don't think that's true. What they want is skills. And some skills are more in demand than others. Emigration isn't all that hard, but it takes time. it's easier for me, because I'm married to an Aussie.
If Wells hasn't repaid US then I say: "Bitch, get outta MY house!"
having flashbacks of the ELAN commenter... aheadofthecurve or something like that?
Every time Geithner opens his mouth, the Obama Administration loses credibility with the public.
He's the world's worst liar, and he is telling them tall. Every American with half a brain knows it.
It's incredible that less than a year after all that Obama "CHANGE" crap, we're still stuck with a liar and defender of the old regime like Timmy.
Every time Geithner is asked a question about what Paulson's crew did, he starts out by saying he had no control over it and then has to back-peddle and admit that as head of the NY Fed, he was in the thick of it.
Americans are starting to hate Geithner worse than Paulson, mainly because he's still here.
"do we know for certain, and if so from what evidence, that she didn't have approval from her superior at Wells?"
It matters not. Her supervisor doesn't own it either. Theoretically, the bank's board could approve something like that, but then read HomeGnome's comment above.
Every American with half a brain knows it.
---That's about a third of US
---That's about a third of US
I'll take the under.
The only way out for Orwells Fargo is to hand the pad over to Winston Smith for safekeeping.
Bandos shall inherit the housing.
I always included myself in the smart third. But I did buy and hold SRS so now I'm not sure sure.
Check out the effect of the rally that started in March on this chart:
Chart of the Day - When priced in gold, Dow is down 78% over the past decade.
Rest don't even know who Geithner is, let alone Paulson. There was a survey in Great Britain recently...people said Winston Churchill was a myth...never existed...so was Richard the Lionhearted, but Sherlock Holmes was real. We have reached new levels here, current officials are myths in their own time.
For a bunch of contrarians, it's amazing how many of you have all your assets in dollar-denominated this, that or whatever...
Wake up.
I would like to be excluded from this crowd please!...Gold, Silver, much brass and lead...and just switched to international stocks....the only dollars I have are for goods and services and bills what little I have.
"But I did buy and hold SRS so now I'm not sure sure. "
SRS kills brain cells.
I always included myself in the third with a fifth. Especially on weekend nights.
Shoulda bought more KY.
"current officials are myths in their own time. "
Legends in their own minds?
Legends in their own behinds?
Fixed.
It matters not. Her supervisor doesn't own it either. Theoretically, the bank's board could approve something like that, but then read HomeGnome's comment above.
Yes, ultimately that's where approval of all corporate actions rests. Her responsibility would be to have the approval of her supervisor, not to go to the board herself, so that's why I phrased it the way I did.
HomeGnome apparently thinks he now has authority over all assets owned by any bank that has accepted a loan or other aid from the government. I disagree.
I thought that of all the regular posters on this board I was almost certainly the least committed to property rights, but even I am having trouble understanding the outrage over Wells choosing how to use and/or dispose of a house they now own.
It is better to think you are a legend than to think you are a legume.
What skills are the aussies looking for?
SPX
, can INDU be far behind?
Just trying to stir the pot, Yalt.
"SRS kills brain cells."
They need to put a skull and bones warning on the prospectus as well as some sort of medical statement.
"Warning holding SRS long-term may cause weight-loss, heart palpitations, suicidal thoughts, lack of libido. Seek immediate medical attention if you notice any of the following: Red in your trading account for more than 5 concurrent days, people laughing at you"
It is better to think you are a legend than to think you are a legume.
Depends on how hungry you are.
We could all go Buddhist or really follow the way of the cross...who needs money, houses, or shoes...really the kingdom of heaven is at hand....I could walk that road too if I was sure I could get hot water every night. Think that is one of the reasons the Romans had such a hard time at first. Wasn't so much the possessions, just the lack of hot water on the missionary road.
What skills are the aussies looking for? - R
There's a list on the Australian government immigration website. I can't remember the exact google phrase. Hang on a sec... o.k., here's a start:
Department of Immigration & Citizenship
still pre-market...
Hoops - don't know what you think of natgas as a long term play, but take a look at :
1) Devon Energy Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
2) XTO Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
I would be curious as to what anyone here thought of the fundamentals of these two companies.
"still pre-market..."
The funds should show up in a few minutes...
When did fundamentals start mattering? I've been gone a couple days.
I really hope that folks understand that the alleged activity involving the WFC exec is truly, deeply emblematic of the mindset at places like JPM, BAC, WFC, and, of course GS. They really feel like they literally own us and that millions a year are their feudal birthright. And they're right.
For a bunch of contrarians, it's amazing how many of you have all your assets in dollar-denominated this, that or whatever...
It's okay to have assets in dollars as long as liabilities are (a) also in dollars and (b) larger than assets.
Thanks, scone.
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"I would be curious as to what anyone here thought of the fundamentals of these two companies. "
I'm holding Devon. Here's Barron's take from last April. I don't know if they have updated it since then.
Upside Developing for Devon Energy - Barrons.com
I'm a contrarian of the world. I only invest in space technology companies traded in lunar deominated rocks.
Well they did bring a "yacht" to a house party according to the article....
Definitely going to be a pizza night. I wanted pizza last night for the game, but decided to cook and wait til tonight. But I hit the lottery today, got both my boys down for an afternoon nap, hasn't happened it weeks, and figure we'll do a pizza and movie tonight. Haven't decided what to watch yet...maybe be the Disney live action Jungle Book...or the King and I...decisions, decisions.
"It's okay to have assets in dollars as long as liabilities are (a) also in dollars and (b) larger than assets. "
No, it's not OK, not if your savings are going to evaporate in real terms. I already got a dose of serious inflation in my lifetime (1970s). Not again.
I thought that of all the regular posters on this board I was almost certainly the least committed to property rights, but even I am having trouble understanding the outrage over Wells choosing how to use and/or dispose of a house they now own.
Indeed, if anyone should be all
about this, it would be the WF shareholders.
I already got a dose of serious inflation in my lifetime (1970s). Not again. - SL
So presumably you own your rentals mortgage free?
My recommendation for a family with boys movie is Conan the Barbarian or Planet of the Apes.
"So presumably you own your rentals mortgage free? "
Yes.
Edit: Hmmm. Maybe I should take out a big loan....
Thanks for the link. That piece is well-written and very disturbing. This issue is a big can of worms.
Isn't the contrarian play to be long dollars and short gold?
Or have I lost touch with the investing masses and I'm now just running contrary to the contrarians?
HomeGnome - I noticed ZERO is NOT AN OPTION on your poll this week. Which can only mean...
There Will Be Pizza
@Hoops -
Man, I couldn't sleep at night with a portfolio like that. (Granted, I'm having trouble sleeping at night with nearly any portfolio right now, but I seriously couldn't sleep if I was 100% in a single stock. More power to ya, but I wonder...)
The company can have everything going for it and still end up being a turd of an investment. The road to our current WinTel hell was paved with the corpses of dead competitors...
Everything you know can be right, and yet something else can come along that's wrong. You need some insurance against that kind of a black swan... Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered and sheeple get shorn...
If nothing else, consider that you're probably not the only one who sees the value, and someone else quite likely covets having all of that value entirely to him/herself, and may come up with an underhanded scheme (and yet get away with it legally) to make it happen.
For that matter, one of the key principals of the company could have an unexpected accident, heart attack, whatever. Or one of them could leave, taking critical intellectual property with them.
It's one thing to lose half, or 2/3, or even 9/10 of a significant sum -- the remainder is still significant and makes a good base to rebuild from. To lose everything is to have nothing, and starting over from scratch is a lot harder.
Boys are a little young for Conan, but trust me it is a family favorite, and the books will be required reading as well...I love Howard's work. Still hoping the new Solomon Kane movie gets released in the states. Like the first Planet of the Apes movie, probably do that one in a few years.
Watching the markets make their daily spike into the close, I am starting to wonder how long before everybody starts doing a trade based on that behavior? I've already seen it discussed on a couple of blog comment sections...buy puts against S&P (or whatever stock) a few hours before the close, when the market is down. Sell the puts into the close.
But what if everybody starts doing this?
Isn't the contrarian play to be long dollars and short gold? - Y
I just bought GOLDX yesterday on the theory that it's kind of a commodity hedgie kind of thing. This is mostly mining stocks. It's not the best, but I have limited options in the 401k.
I wouldn't assume that 'dollar shock' would necessarily take rents upwards with them... rents seem dependent on local incomes in a way which may not correlate with pressures on USD via commodities, forex, collectibles etc.
You could always have a dance night, Vonbek777.
YouTube - Dance moves that Rock!!
I forgot the snark tag again. Note to self...
buy puts against S&P (or whatever stock) a few hours before the close, when the market is down. Sell the puts into the close.
Not that I would ever do such a thing. That would be like, gambling, which is clearly not what the markets are all about.
31 to 1 insider selling versus buying points to possible issues with this bull market.
Shielding your young children from graphically violent movies will only hurt them in the long run. What happens when the little kid across the street who has watched Conan hits your kid repeatedly with a stick and your kid doesn't know how to respond? Poor parenting. Poor, poor parenting...
As a bank employee, I know that using the bank's REOs is a no-no. Not just from the bank's internal ethics rules, but from the regulators. There might even be specific laws against it.
Some of you may say "oh, but the bank owns it", but imagine if this kind of behavior was allowed, and become widespread. Say you are late on your mortgage, and the bank knew it could use your house as a corporate perk. Bang, you are out. Another guy in the same situation whose house is not as attractive as a party palace (say it is a nice mansion, but just no on the beach)? "We'll work things out".
This sort of thing just really opens the whole process up for abuse, and as I said might even be restricted by the regulators (I know the head of our mortgage division is not even allowed to get a mortgage from us, he had to use a competitor, by law).
At my company, we are not even allowed to bid on REOs, nor are any of our immediate relatives (parents, siblings, etc).
I am guessing the regulators are not too happy to be reading about this.
"Poor parenting. Poor, poor parenting..."
Yes right on. Because the kid with the stick will likely end up in prison.
2 scenarios:
1) We weasel out of this mess by hook and by crook, everybody world-wide gets on board to save the American way of life, which Dick Cheney has assured us is non-negotiable.
2) we don't weasel out of this mess.
"What happens when the little kid across the street who has watched Conan hits your kid repeatedly with a stick and your kid doesn't know how to respond?"
Somehow they knew how to respond before tv.
I've always been a bit flummoxed by the American way of letting their children see any level of abhorent violence on TV, but by god show a bit of skin and you're in a world of hurt as a tv company.
@sm_landlord "It's okay to have assets in dollars as long as liabilities are (a) also in dollars and (b) larger than assets. "
No, it's not OK, not if your savings are going to evaporate in real terms. I already got a dose of serious inflation in my lifetime (1970s). Not again.
My savings won't evaporate in real terms because I'm using the income from them to pay off liabilities that are in identical currency units. If we get a real inflation, interest rates will rise and the earnings of the savings will massively outstrip the interest cost of the fixed-rate long-term debt.
My employment income may decline in real terms, but I don't have direct control over that.
Anyway, I'll be happy to make a shift in portfolio when I actually see the serious inflation.
But I think when you state that you've already seen a dose of serious inflation in the 70s, and "not again", you've answered your question -- the bulk of the global elite lived through that period, and will avoid treading the same road again.
the term is 'gravedancing'
""Poor parenting. Poor, poor parenting..."
Yes right on. Because the kid with the stick will likely end up in prison."
You're quick.
Conan the Guvernator
"I've always been a bit flummoxed by the American way of letting their children see any level of abhorent violence on TV, but by god show a bit of skin and you're in a world of hurt as a tv company."
There's no flummoxing needed. It goes along with being too lazy to get your fat ass off the couch and read a book, work on ABCs, or walk to the park.
"the bulk of the global elite lived through that period"
yes, but the boomers were too young, self-absorbed and drugged-up to learn anything from the 70s. well, actually, that applies to the 90s too, doesn't it?
Elvis, it isn't the violence, and trust me my kids are already mastering the art of melee between themselves, and my 19month old is very protective of his older brother at the playground. My children are very perceptive, there are some ideas about human nature in the movie, about civilization itself, that I am not prepared to deal with yet. I already mentioned that my 4 year old asked me why god killed all the animals during the flood, if it was man that was bad...I am still searching for answers myself, hard to come up with responses to all the questions. I was raised in a house that censored everything, don't plan on repeating that, but I do want them a little older before we discuss some ideas.
On another note, I don't envy you guys. We have a little savings, but we are basically poor. Have a little bit of a safety net with my parents, but if it all goes south, figure I will let the red man in me take over, and follow the path of my ancestors and hunt and fish for awhile. Strangely enough, that is my dad's plan too, and they are fairly well off.
Anyway, I'll be happy to make a shift in portfolio when I actually see the serious inflation. - WS
I'm praying there's no dollar crisis over the next 6 months. It will be very hard to shift fast enough, if that happens.
You beat me to it >; )
The minute you take public funding, it all changes. The Wells exec's egregious behavior is a great example for the divorce in risk/reward between the haves and the havenots.
"Anyway, I'll be happy to make a shift in portfolio when I actually see the serious inflation."
One thing I learned from last time: The best time to hedge is before you need to.
"the bulk of the global elite lived through that period, and will avoid treading the same road again."
I'm not so sure it's avoidable.
I was in the UK reading a tabloid during the Superbowl some years back, which had on page 3, twice as much breast meat as Janet Jackson showed during the Super Bowl, The next day there was another double breasted beauty on page 3...
"It goes along with being too lazy to get your fat ass off the couch and read a book, work on ABCs, or walk to the park."
Children reading trashy novels is okay? You are sick in the head...The child molesters lurk in the park. What is wrong with you?
"Children reading trashy novels is okay?"
Actually, I'd prefer that over them watching trashy TV.
"work on ABCs"
What a racist violent statement!! You're advocating working over American Born Chinese?
/just joking
Don't start telling them about the sex shops in Amsterdam...
OTOH, the sheeple have no idea what's going on. Look at PTTRX, their Morningstar rating, and the toxic, infected stuff they are carrying:
PIMCO Total Return Instl (PTTRX) - Google Finance
I bought this shit yesterday because I think the sheeple will keep it bubbly. I have zero belief in this shit, I'm just riding the wave. It's a fucked up world, what can I say.
Gold looks to close above 1000 today.
What a strange world, with long treasurys pricing in low inflation outlook. Yet gold spiking.
I was curious what unemployment was back during the gold-price bubble of 1978, when we had a very obvious high-inflation era. Unemployment was actually at its cyclical low when the gold price peaked. The price of gold crashed as the unemployment rate headed up to over 10%.
Very different times, these.
Why do you want to beat up innocent American Born Chinese? What did they ever do to you? I thought Archie Bunker died awhile back.
no deflation in higher ed...
UC proposes 32 percent increase in student fees
UC officials on Thursday released a plan that calls for a 15 percent increase in basic student fees starting in the winter 2010 term, followed by another 15 percent hike next fall. If approved, in-state undergraduate fees would rise by 32 percent to $10,302.
"PTTRX"
Amazing, huh? Could anyone other than Bill Gross get 5 stars from Morningstar for speculating in futures and junk bonds?
The frog is looking a little tired today...
Perhaps UC should just slash salaries 32% across the board.
I'll be holding GLD puts over the weekend, which I suspect may get me the ridicule usually reserved for the likes of Jas.
"What a strange world, with long treasurys pricing in low inflation outlook."
I found this puzzling back in '05, too. But an insane (or, really, self-dealing) fed printing and buying every treasury necessary to goose the market (and assist in general extortion by GS and friends from the treasury) explains it quite nicely.
The frog is just resting up for his last leap.
HomeGnome....brought back memories...we took a family trip to the Netherlands, 6th grade....kind of hard to censor everyday life in Holland. Thought my mom would have a heart attack at the beach. Great trip. That video by the way, was scary. We listen to a lot of classical, helps memory and attention spans, plus really good to put kids to sleep at night. But we have our rock and roll and jazz nights too...but no hip-hop.
Jas is on record as being a goldbug, actually.
I'm sure this kind of observation is very common, but here goes anyway: the other day we were at a cafeteria, and a fat little ~4 yo girl goes up to the cashier and complains that the cashier forgot to giver her her drinking glass. She gets the glass from the cashier, goes to the soda fountain area, fills it with coke and some other sode (50% mixed) and then grabs the sugar from the coffee area and proceeds to dump lots of sugar into her drink. I felt like throwing up.
Her mom's response? "Honey you don't need all that sugar in there!". Does mom get off her fat ass and actually do anything about it? No. Kid proceeded to consume the beverage.
I'm not sure it's appropriate for government but something in me feels like that should be illegal. You can't beat kids, but allowing them to get life-threatening diabetes, damaged bones and teeth, and bad kidneys is OK.
SM,
It comes down to social class when you're talking about repercussions. If a regular line pulic employee did that, their @ss would be in a sling and they might be trying to avoid talking to the DA. If a deputy director, VP, chancellor, etc does it, they get to charge the state 3500 for new blinds and 120k for a dogrun. What needs to be avoided is publically acknowledging that divide in personal responsibility or all hell breaks loose.
All you need to know about the late 1970's-early 80's precious metal markets...
Silver was $6 an oz on early 1979, and was $48 by early 1980 because of the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market, a classic financial bubble that went up 8x in less than a year's time~
Gold was $275 an oz in early 1979, and got to $825 by early 1980, largely on the coattails of Silver going up, it was a bit player back then.
The roles are completely reversed today, and there is no one buyer for gold, the demand is world-wide and deep.
As the bumper sticker says, "Silence is golden, but duct tape is silver." Buy silver.
I know, but short gold now probably sounds like long treasuries sounded then.
ghostfacinvestah writes: I know the head of our mortgage division is not even allowed to get a mortgage from us, he had to use a competitor, by law
Which law is that? Do you live in Canada or something?
HollywoodHack,
But gold wasn't at all-time highs back in '05.
One explanation is that the high gold price is not necessarily all about inflation expectations, but perhaps more about currency instability fears.
Same thing with training dogs.
YOU actually have to be the PACK LEADER.
dont forget that gold does well during times of instability, political or otherwise. Not necessarily during inflationary times.
Amazing, huh? Could anyone other than Bill Gross get 5 stars from Morningstar for speculating in futures and junk bonds? - SL
Several people leap to mind. And they all have the inside track with the government. Nice work if you can get it.
Woohoo, a red close. Gonna be having that cockatail weenie with the baked beans tonight.
Basel,
I'm disgusted too. I'd love to spill the dirt on the who, how, and why of the increases but lunch is over and someone around here has to... you know... actually work >; )
The good think about cash is you can burn it to keep you warm. Ever try to burn gold? Huh, huh? Have you? Thought so.
HomeGnome,
Bingo, dad's advice about raising kids, was raise them like a dog. Of course our dogs(big Old English Sheepdogs) were pampered indoor kings who slept in beds and ate dinner leftovers every night. Worse, our second, was like my brother. Did everything together. Was honestly my best friend during high school. Killed me when he died a few years ago (lived a long time for a sheepdog though, 17 years).
FCs are an interesting beast up in the Bay Area. I have a lot of Chinese/Indian friends who just will not touch them no matter how good of a deal.
The house next to us is in FC and you could get a great deal on it. Put maybe 40k into it to fix it up nice. It's just setting there and yet every other house in the neighborhood that was on the market this summer sold quite easily to almost exclusively Chinese/Indian buyers.
I must say, I missed having Counterpointer around today to call the play-by-play on the S&P landing...
Jas has been mostly right so far regarding Treasury yields and gold. He also argued years ago that we were facing a Kondratiev winter.
Mish argues that gold is protection from credit/currency stress (which we have), deflation (which we have), and hyperinflation, but NOT low inflation. Recent history seems to support this idea.
And that's ball game. Most of my picks are up. But it's sad that my "people are really stupid" investing strategy actually works.
They say most every $20 Banknote has some cocaine residue on it, so there's an added bonus...
"And yet, Figueroa says she loves her job. " Because although "Figueroa has found her caseload in the last year getting heavier and harder to bear," the sheriff gets paid per eviction.
So Figueroa is full of shit.
If you have enough gold bricks, you can build a house to keep you warm, although the cost of constantly shining it probably is prohibitive.
Has this article at Naked Capitalism been discussed already?
Is economic boom around the corner? « naked capitalism
Ed Harrison argues that we could get a couple of years of growth out of money printing, especially with the reserve currency. He quotes Mark Faber: "Don’t underestimate the power of printing money".
I have a lot of Chinese/Indian friends who just will not touch them no matter how good of a deal.
in many eastern cultures, a foreclosure is a sign of bad luck. don't want to have that negative mojo disrupting the feng shui.
"They say most every $20 Banknote... "
So are you setting up Juvenal's money laundry and cocaine refinery?
OK, market's closed on a Friday in summer 2009. Somewhere, some suits with badges are briskly walking into a bank...
And the winners are...
"in many eastern cultures, a foreclosure is a sign of bad luck. don't want to have that negative mojo disrupting the feng shui."
They also just don't want to buy used houses from what I can tell. One good Indian friend of mine is battling with his wife over this. He is fine with a FC, she wants absolutely brand new.
Brand new houses have that alluring brand new smell. Used houses ofter have that unalluring urine smell.
For what it's worth, i'd never buy a used home from an Indian, as you'd never get the smell of curry out of the house...
it was quite high relative to the start of the bull in late '01.
the rise of crude in the face of stubbornly low rates was more eye-catching in '05 (and early '08, of course), though, I suppose.
also, in terms of gold - those high prices happened very, very briefly. gold only traded above $600 for a period of weeks, if not days in January '80. As I constantly post here, commodities need to be viewed with long, long MAs.
Some thread music for Bandos at the Beach. Young Obi-wan Bernanke scalawag at 0:30 mark.
Ed Harrison argues that we could get a couple of years of growth out of money printing, especially with the reserve currency.
i don't think Ed Harrison factors in the downward pressure from demographics. pretty easy mistake since it hasn't been an issue in post-war analysis, until now.
"Brand new houses have that alluring brand new smell."
Formaldehyde?
We are freaking doomed!
This is your neighbor.
What Nerve! Blonde Beats Speeding Tickets With "I'm Pretty" Sign - Crimesider - CBS News
---OT
Curry...
My wife loves Indian food, but I can't eat curry, even the smell of it. I love cilantro though, and she can't stand that. We have take out nights where we end up hitting multiple locations to get everyone's special food fix. Those days may be gone soon.
I share Ed Harrison's uncertainty about whether we'll get some sort of boom. I also share his fear that, if we do get some sort of boom now, the next bust will be even more severe.
I prefer the smell of curry over the smell of animal waste. Although given the choice, I'd pick a used house that smells like the forest after a short thunderstorm or a house that smells like a tailgate party.
Ever tailgate in the forest after a short thunderstorm? It is like heaven with ribs.
what a moron. Every cop in seattle will be looking to ticket a Black Sorrento with the license plate that reads "DASHA"
My wife likes to cook the little stinky Chinese sausages, plus we eat Indian food a lot. I've also got my take to work bag that our cat managed to spray two years ago; so I've got all bases covered.
Some of you may say "oh, but the bank owns it", but imagine if this kind of behavior was allowed, and become widespread. Say you are late on your mortgage, and the bank knew it could use your house as a corporate perk. Bang, you are out. Another guy in the same situation whose house is not as attractive as a party palace (say it is a nice mansion, but just no on the beach)? "We'll work things out".
Is it really different in substance from a a bank noticing that you have a pile of equity in the house (bang, your out) vs somebody who has no equity in the house (let's see if we can work something out, ie. squeeze more $$ out of you.)