Is the lag in 1999- 2000 about 4 years ?

gotta run. lawn needs a mowin' (primal subconsious urge to conform to neighbor's expectations) ...

This suggests unemployment might peak in Spring 2010. - CR

This suggests unemployment might peak as early as in Spring 2010. And all it will take is for this to be a normal recession.

Long weekend?

Is Monday a holiday?

Labor Day is not to be celebrated in 2009. Instead, we might as well call it Un-Labor Day. And how many celebrants would much rather be working than having a "long weekend"?

Wow, just taking a quick break...checking up on the forum...can't stay long...but had to comment on the mating subject. This is one that has fascinated me for years...some people are just different than the normal, even before kids. The eagle and wolf metaphor is true. I wrote a poem for our wedding...GreyWolf/BlackRose... that described the almost mystical transformation I went through after seeing my wife for the first time. Some psychologists suggest this as a form of codependency..but honestly for my wife and I (going on almost 13 years, married young) we like what we represent together more than our separate selves. Not saying we don't have our individual sides too, but what we have together is more important to us both. Wife has had dreams about other men, and especially around ovulation has had physical responses to other men, but it hasn't overloaded her cerebral connection to me. It doesn't bother me, because I know that I enflame her mind. I am different though as well...I am much more intellectual than physical, and I don't have a strong sense of competition. I have never felt the need to prove myself to others (except my dad). I did not date anyone before my wife, not even any one night stands because I am an all or nothing kind of guy, and just didn't see the point in casual relationships. When I met my wife for the first time, I 'knew' she was the one, and the only one. I have a very strong will and have been able to affect changes on myself and my surroundings in order to achieve what I desire...which is why I am a stay at home dad. It is important for my wife to compete and work...that was more important for me than trying to be the breadwinner since we both agreed we didn't want to put our kids in daycare. I think for some people will and mind can overcome programming, and maybe for a few, the programming is even missing or damaged in the first place. Just a few thoughts.

CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 11:00 am

Rob Dawg, yeah ... good point. I think it might be fun to guess when we will pass 10% unemployment (I think October or November look likely),

And i'll tell you why Oct/Nov will see 10% reported U-3. The Seasonal adjustments will assume substantial hiring for holiday employment and it is unlikely to happen this year so even if there is modest hiring the formula will show a decline.

New Exotic Investments Emerging on Wall Street
After the mortgage business imploded last year, Wall Street investment banks began searching for another big idea to make money. They think they may have found one.
The bankers plan to buy “life settlements,” life insurance policies that ill and elderly people sell for cash — $400,000 for a $1 million policy, say, depending on the life expectancy of the insured person. Then they plan to “securitize” these policies, in Wall Street jargon, by packaging hundreds or thousands together into bonds. They will then resell those bonds to investors, like big pension funds, who will receive the payouts when people with the insurance die....

Wall Street would profit by pocketing sizable fees for creating the bonds, reselling them and subsequently trading them.... With $26 trillion of life insurance policies in force in the United States, the market could be huge.

In my daily online scanning of home sales in my area, there was a big jump around June/July in solds, obviously from the tax credit.

Now I'm seeing nothing again, except prices dropping.

I think we have taken another leg down.

The real question is when will UE drop below 10% and why, after it breaks 10%.

The most interesting part of the graph is that the lag between the pick up in housing starts and the bottom in unemployment has been getting longer with each recession. If that pattern continues we might not be looking for a bottom in unemployment until 2014 !!!

sdtfs
yes number 3

EHP,
One of the ways we squeezed greater efficiencies out of the economy in recent years was through transportation to increase the competitive universe bidding for both production and consumption. Walmart represents among the best and added their ability to extract economic extortion at the municipal level. The downside is that this recession will see both those advantages disappear and the cocommitant hit to the transportation sector. Thus why many smart people here were so concerned about the rail and port volumes.

This is an example of wall street running out of ideas.
This is another manure pile, that will help bail out insurance companies as people outlive their projections.

Sorry, but dead peasant strategies just suck.

The insurance companies love this, as they have a steady source of monthly payments.

Welfare for insurance companies, although they would be happier if folks just cashed out.

Dumb, dumb dumb.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Speaking of controlled and uncontrolled variables, I believe it was Washington State U that saw 2000 H1N1 cases this past week. So far the flu has behaved itself, but it will be interesting to track college campuses and schools the next few months.

Congratulations to the BFF Poll winners this week.
The number of bank failures: 5
Cost to DIF: 401 Million

azurite
Doc Holiday
girlbear
HomeGnome
Never Again II
pythia
scone
SF Tanzanite
WoofusMaximus
yagij

Thank you to all who participated!

There's plenty of philosophical room out there for both
free will and automation.

It's not either/or.

Some automatic behaviour can at least be modified temporarily,
but it is helpful to acknowledge that it exists first.

There is a certain amount of truth to:

"Nature, Mr. Alnutt, is what we were sent here to rise above."

Time to direct our evolution explicitely. The Blind Watchmaker
does only the most mediocre job sufficient to just barely get by.

ed.

im getting immune to the repeated and frequent pronouncement on radio, tv and print that employment is a lagging economic indicator

tail wagging the dog to my way of thinking

employment is as much the economy as gdp .... a massaged number when one considers

1 what figures in to that number for example, that is produced by us corps abroad

2 how much of gdp is now financial service related ( end of 70s financial services accounted for less than 7% profit of all publicly traded corporations, and last year was between 30 and 40%) and we know what thats worth

so, im sorry, but for me employment and the growth of small business in america is the more significant indicator of economic health

Interesting that Obama will now "allow" taxpayers to check a box to have a tax refund used to buy a savings bond.

Next we'll have to check a box to prevent an automatic refund payment to GS. Cuts out the middle men.

"The insurance companies love this, as they have a steady source of monthly payments."

You are very wrong, AllenM. I know many people deep inside the insurance industry, and they hate the life settlement business. It's a parasite on the normal life insurance business. The only way investors make money is if the insurance companies lose, and vice versa. There are many expenses involved, so in reality it is unlikely that either the investors or the insurance companies will do well. Bu the middlemen have done very well, and are looking to make more.

A lot of the renewed interest in life settlement securitization right now comes from the need for hedge funds and others who bought policies expecting very high returns to find another bagholder. They know the people who bought MBS are pretty dumb and desperate for yield, so they are going back to the same well.

sportsfan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 11:36 am

So, EHP, glad to see the glass is half-full.

Correction: MY half of the is full.

Well, yes and no.
A lot of modern policies (like mine) essentially expire when you turn 80.

So, if your pool has a lot of these, and folks outlive their policies, well, the insurance companies win, investors lose.

I do agree that the middlemen are the big profit makers, but that is wall street in essence.

Further questions involve the use of the variable investment products- some of these are very interesting in terms of how they would be paid out.

As far as I can see, this is another tar baby.

A great example is the aids settlement bust. Some investors are still paying on those policies.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Today you can volunteer to save in government debt. Yesterday, mandatory volunteerism act. , i.e. TARP, PPIP, etc.

There, now the Dawg don't have to fix it.

Of course, just imagine if you manage to put together a portfolio of insurance on alcoholics. Just send a couple of bottles of vodka every week and you get fantastic returns.

Like I just pointed out, look at those policies running on the folks with aids- the insurance companies expectant losses turned into long run income streams, with a long potential loss- but that presupposes that investors don't abandon policies and redeem that have too long to expected payout, or end up selling to Wilbur Ross for 10 cents on their mark to market fantasy.

Quite frankly, I would rather invest in a hand of poker than in anything like this.

Someday this war's gonna end...

I saw this and had the exact same reaction.

Today you can volunteer to save in government debt. Tomorrow, mandatory volunteerism act.

Wow, the is thick today.

It is a simple fact that America's composite savings rate in 2005 or 2006 went below zero for the first time since 1933. It is another fact that a whole lot of people are going to rely on Social Security in their retirement (without realizing how little a SS check will buy).

So when did encouraging savings or saying "Buy Bonds" become a great government conspiracy?

So when did encouraging savings or saying "Buy Bonds" become a great government conspiracy?
..................
I think it's problematic when savings have a track record of being disappeared. People should be encouraged to learn how to save in ways that best serve them, not just turning over money to funds that can just evaporate like the 201Ks

This suggests unemployment might peak in Spring 2010.
Guffaw
Job market unlikely to recover until 2014 - Stocks & economy- msnbc.com

Did you even read the article, sportsfan?

Of course I did. But for those who missed it:

Obama to workers: We'll help you save
President announces measures to make it easier to save more. One new idea: Turn tax refunds into savings bonds.

By Jennifer Liberto, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: September 5, 2009: 11:38 AM ET

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- President Obama on Saturday announced changes that the IRS plans to make to encourage workers to save more of their paychecks.

"Even before this recession hit, the savings rate was essentially zero, while borrowing had risen and credit card debt had increased," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address. "More broadly, tens of millions of families have been, for a variety of reasons, unable to put away enough money for a secure retirement. ... We cannot continue on this course."

Most of the following changes will take effect immediately because of rule changes made by the Treasury Department.

Auto enrollment in retirement plans: To make it easier for smaller and medium-sized employers to automatically enroll workers into retirement plans, the administration will clear up some bureaucratic paper-work hurdles for employers to offer that option. Employees could still choose to opt out of the retirement plans.

Saving tax refunds: To make it easier for those owed tax refunds to save, the IRS will allow tax filers in 2010 to recoup their refund by issuing U.S. savings bonds.

Sick days and vacation time become 401(k) money: To make it easier for workers to rack up savings, the White House will make it easier for employers to convert (or allow workers to convert) unused vacation and sick leave pay into 401(k) contributions.

Americans have not been good savers in recent decades.

Recently, personal savings rates have increased, rising from essentially zero last year to about 4.2% in July, according to government statistics.

But even among those with savings in the bank, the nest egg is relatively lean. Of workers 55 years or older, about half have less than $50,000 in savings, excluding their homes and pensions, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

"Today, the administration announced steps we are taking to make it easier for working families to save, particularly for retirement," said Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in a prepared statement. "Working Americans should be able to retire with dignity and security, but nearly half of the nation's workforce has little or nothing beyond Social Security benefits to get by on in old age."

However, the impact of many of the administration's changes could be modest, since the changes will be voluntary for employers and employees.

Senior administration officials explained that the moves are meant to complement legislative proposal announced earlier to encourage workers to build retirement savings, which wouldn't go into effect until 2011.

The officials said they're not sure how much the new rules will help boost national savings rates but that they're targeting those who are saving too little.

They acknowledged that a spike in short-term savings could hurt the recovery, but say they believe their changes will have a longer-term impact.

Most of the changes would not impose new mandates on employers.

For example, a company that doesn't compensate employees for unused vacation and sick leave, under "use it or lose it" policies, would not be required to start compensating employees for unused time through 401(k) contributions.

The measures detailed Saturday are in addition to two other Obama proposals to promote retirement savings. Both seem to be in limbo, pushed behind bigger priorities like health care.

Congress has introduced a bill that would force employers that don't currently offer retirement plans to automatically enroll their workers in a direct-deposit IRA. Employees would be allowed to opt out.

The other proposal would expand the saver's credit, a tax credit for middle- or low-income workers who save through 401(k)s or IRAs. The bill would allow more people at higher incomes to qualify for the credit and allow more low-income wage earners who don't pay federal income tax to also benefit.

Together these moves would increase savings participation for this group of workers to 80% from 15%, according to White House estimates. But the plan's cost is $59.6 billion over the next 10 years, which has rankled congressional Republicans worried about growing deficits.

First Published: September 5, 2009: 6:01 AM ET

Bend, Oregon was a 21st century American boomtown.
BBC NEWS | Americas | Economic crash in Oregon boomtown

Downtown Bend looks like a shrine to post-millenial bijou: pricey shoes, scented candles, fancy coffee. There is even a shop specialising in beachwear - despite Bend's location in the high desert.

But when the US slumped, Bend crashed. The value of a home fell 40% in under two years.

And unemployment nearly quadrupled from around 4% two years ago to 15% in the summer of 2009.

"Everything that Bend produced relied on the credit market", says Carolyn Eagan, an economist with the Oregon Department of Employment.

Ahhh Carolyn extrapolate your statement to USA bubble economy which is why conditions will continue to deteriorate for yrs to come

" just imagine if you manage to put together a portfolio of insurance on alcoholics"

Well, this is not that far off the truth. I understand that quite a lot of recent life settlement activity involved fraud. People with no need for life insurance, and no money, and poor health, were getting big policies at premiums based on good health. Key evidence of need, of ill-health went "missing", or was misleading or fraudulent. Very bad for the life insurance industry. I'd say it looks like sub-prime on steroids.

Oh I agree, in part. But I disagree, because I think the insurance companies will do a much better job of writing policies than hedge funds and wall street will do reading them. The biggest reason that premiums will rise is the abominable returns on investments.

Blaming viaticals when investments have been torpedoed is kinda silly.

Cart, meet horse.

Lunch is calling me, so until later.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Just another tax stream for the government and control of your money! Come on all you fools pay the mother ship now for a screwing later! If you can't control your own money then by all means let the government do it for you! Dam Sad.

Sportsfan, that isn't even the article I linked...

Why can't I do all of the things mentioned WITHOUT the government being involved?

Most folks I know lost a bunch of money in their 401K's due to the massive Wall St. theft.

From the article I linked:
Allowing such plans (401k's) to automatically increase the amount that workers save over time unless the workers object.
--Sure you're free to object; don't let the door hit ya where the lord split ya!

Allowing workers, when leaving a job, to direct unused vacation pay to a retirement savings account rather than taking it in cash.
--Please Big Brother hold my hand. I just can't decide this for myself.

Employers can set default amounts of each worker's pay — perhaps 3% — to automatically be deposited into the accounts without being taxed.
--Perhaps 10%? 15%? 20%. But of course we all know taxes will be getting reduced in the coming years!

Now you post this:
Everyone is personally responsible for where they stash their savings.
--SO which is it? We are or aren't responsible for ourselves?
--Do individuals decide or government?

You are right about one thing though.
You can't fix stupid!

sportsfan (profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 3:04 pm

Actually, savings bonds are just a claim on future dollars, as are CDs, passbook accounts and the like.

Claims on future worth of Enron stock.

Tell you would advise your mom to buy this debt if it was a private company:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_jbs0fnMs1sc/SpMdxFl82JI/AAAAAAAAALE/aKsrs3blwBA/s1600-h/Deficit+as+%25+of+Budget.PNG 

Saw a presentation by a hedge fund on the life settlement business in early '07. I think they were only buying full policies, though. There might be a little advantage to policy-holders who are unable or too lazy to shop around for the best policy.

The securitizing of any paper is a ponzi scheme. It starts with the name: securitizing is not securing. In fact, securities are less secure than cash, which is what most people trade for them. It's a great arbitrage of the long-term capital gains tax and discount window welfare programs, but still a ponzi.

patientrenter - I don't know details, but maybe their timing was just off. Maybe they expected a recovery and wanted to position themselves. But if I hear anything, I'll let you know.

OT but worth a read: Blended Purple: American's Views on 'Interracial' Marriage - It's Not 1958

Drive by comment

I have to bail for a bit but I'll be back!

What? there's no BBQ icon?
KEN!
:bbq:

Thanks, Outsider.

On the subject of what encourages savings, the answer is obvious - higher returns. If the returns aren't there, then the savings are already too plentiful in comparison to the good investment opportunities, and the shortage talk is just a ploy to divert money to pet projects.

I know you are being deliberately provocative and admire that but these savings bonds are only going one place, current government expenditures. There are no future dollars except against tax revenue.

There is absolutely nothing provocative in what I have said. Of course any purchase of U.S. debt of any kind is funneling the proceeds into current government expenditures.

I mentioned this in the context of Social Security when a younger commenter was ragging on boomers and social security, pointing out that boomers had been paying into social security much longer than youngsters and had received absolutely nothing for that since all dollars went to fund "current government expenditures" for retirees.

Boomers and Savings Bonds aren't the problem. Ponzi financing is and has been the problem.

Been investing in chickens and a vegetable garden. We've got tomatoes coming out our ears and plenty of fertilizer

What, you got chickenshit? Big deal.

I've got a super-duper senior AAA Rated bond backed by super prime jumbo mortgages insured by a AAA certified insurance co. and guaranteed by 3 government agencies probably backed by the full faith and credit of the US. They're even willing to triple the face value for nothing. And it's deep-discount.

Want to trade? Pretty please?

I have so many veggies at the moment, the neighbors will be hiding when thy se me coming, as they are loaded also.
Might be time to get the dehydrator going full time.
As far as even looking at investment outcomes, it will will like the Austrians in 1913 debating who their next Hapsburg ruler was going to be.
BAU is comforting, but a unlikely future.

Might be time to get the dehydrator going full time.
.........
i was just looking how to convert last year's applesauce into apple leather. Our dehydrator was sure a wonderful investment.

Feckless Ness (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 12:48 pm

Even in normal times, it takes exceptional, unflagging leadership to overcome inertia in the public sector. Overcoming today's omnipresent denial of reality would require something really extraordinary.

You mean like a simultaneous currency and credit crisis? I tried mentioning that here a few years ago and was laughed at. What's changed?

I mean extraordinary leadership, Rob. People stepping up.

We should find some leaders and elect them to public office.

My State elects leaders, all for the past 50 years have been given a job for life, except one and his brother-in-law done him in by under-estimating a an old Sweet Potato Judge who still had a little back-bone left.

"What's changed" is a great question. People have been speculating on when unemployment will peak, but why should it peak? It can only peak for three reasons that I can see: 1) more extend and pretend; 2) true recovery; or 3) equillibrium at some minimum threshold of production and consumption (aka Depression).

Let's face it. Our economic system has broken down and there is no fix in sight. Until we have positive structural change, nothing will prevent the economy from further deterioration.

Paul Krugman, in the NYT:

"One brave attendee, Raghuram Rajan (of the University of Chicago, surprisingly), presented a paper warning that the financial system was taking on potentially dangerous levels of risk. He was mocked by almost all present — including, by the way, Larry Summers, who dismissed his warnings as “misguided.”"

At least PK ackowledged that economic truth was spoken by those who hold political views different from PK's, but he thinks it's "surprising" when that happens, and he thinks it's of little consequence, a mere "BTW", when one of his own political tribe speaks falsehood. Reading PK is like trying to eat tasty shrimp from a soup of human sweat.

Feckless Ness (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 3:53 pm

I mean extraordinary leadership, Rob. People stepping up.

The problem is a crisis of milieu. The economic part is a product of the inability to make realistic policies. Bad leadership led to this crisis and the milieu of decaying states feeds on itself. Next part, central state policy will start to get constrained by inability to raise funds, and then you will see a genuine decline in standard of living as taxation gets predatory and you find that kleptocrats come first at the trough before real programs and policies.

Yep, we can carefully pick them by asking them questions like "'Who is your spiritual leader?" like some reporter did in one of the Presidential debates. I wouldn't elect anyone who never spoke to the Dalai Lama (no relation, btw).

Feckless Ness: There are compelling reasons why this doesn't happen. Capital projects in the public sector take years, even decades, to reach fruition. It can take years for one person's vision to garner enough support to become political will, years more to acquire funding, and years more for development to be completed. Except for a few, rare, visionary people, no one is looking into past this recession and preparing for that future.

Yes, it does require leadership - more than it should because our pattern and practice is to cede control over our communities to developers and investors. A different future would require new laws that change this equation - and that would be a fight of mammoth proportions. But the alternative is ugly, very ugly.

There are precedents however. The city can require convenants on deeds for development of large parcels that allow fast-action public reconveries on abandonment. Redevelopment agencies can acquire the properties at the now-low values, and can farm out to private groups the new developments that are in the public interest. Multi-county 'metro' governments (like the tri-county Portland urban growth limits - authorized by state law) can look across small suburbs at the overall needs of the metro area. Zoning laws can be either good or bad, farsighted or nearsighted. But we wouldn't have cities if somebody didn't lay out the grid, provide for water, sewage, fire and police, etc.

The 'way it always has been' isn't sufficient when the nation is faced with a whole new competitive environment that finance capitalism has just proved is unworkable and detrimental to our welfare as a people.

As bad as some view local government, wouldn't be far worse to continue down a path that makes corporate profits the driving interest in our living environment?

Organized crime starts at home. Time on a local board moving on up to city council where you learn the tax theft procedure and the rest is refined on you way to the top fooling the public. Or you can buy your way to the top!

Ben Dover,
One local pol in the Northeast bragged to his cousin (my friend) that he gets $100 for a street light installation. Yes, that's how it starts.

i was just looking how to convert last year's applesauce into apple leather.

When I go riding on my tamed network political commentators I exclusively wear chaps made of apple leather. George Stephanopoulos rears terribly if I don anything else.

MaryAnn are you the 'Idaho free speech' person?

I've been arguing something similar. If the lawyers know more than the judge, what good is paying them more...

Jim - I like your ideas. Liking them and seeing them happen are two different things.

FN: they won't happen, for sure, if we just accept the status quo and end up with 3rd world urban environments.

Most government regulators I have dealt will know procedure but can't think.

Please don't mention the Coulter-geist - it may summon her back from grave feasting that has obscured her for a while.

She might be wrong; but she's still more articulate than Palin.
YouTube - Ann Coulter Gets Owned
YouTube - Sarah Mania! Sarah Palin's Greatest Hits

"We should find some leaders and elect them to public office."

I'll add to that: When people are out of work, the result is unemployment.

"We need leaders," the conclusion of the mono-myth, in which all is saved by the mysterious stranger who rides into town on a while horse.

Brecht wrote: Unhappy the land that needs a hero.

Feckless-
In glass jars, with oxygen absorbers.
The trick is to get the proper drying for the proper veggie or fruit.

"Brecht wrote: Unhappy the land that needs a hero. "

And frequently, still unhappier the land that gets one.

More from the NYT PK article (at How Did Economists Get it So Wrong? - NY Times

At the end of the article, PK concludes that economics will have to refocus on "flaws-and-frictions economics" incorporating insights from behavioral finance that show people are irrational and markets are inefficient. I think we all agree on that. To illustrate his point, he holds up the recent asset price bubbles, but then blithely concludes that the current downturn in asset prices is also a sign of market inefficiency (and thereby implies that the current govt measures to hold up asset prices is justified). Totally inconsistent. And it goes to show how those who advocate counter-cyclical macroprudential supervision of fin'l institutions as an ideal may be planning to abuse it by keeping asset prices high.

Pavel, is this you on facebook?
Pavel Chichikov | Facebook 

pavel,

Because the country, like the administration, is still treating this like a nasty recession and not a depression. Consequently, they're still holding on expecting a recovery that isn't coming.

Once it becomes obvious that -- despite any temporary blips in the GDP -- we're still down and sinking then the deeper cuts will come.

From the Mish post: Because allowances for loan losses are a direct hit to earnings, and because allowances are at ridiculously low levels, bank earnings have been wildly over-stated. Moreover, even as problem loans are increasing and expected to keep increasing, allowances for loan losses have gone the other direction.

That's one way to read it, I guess. My reading was how a freshwater economist was giving a theory that, in his "school", would be considered iconoclastic; while Summers, in the opposite economic camp, was blowing off something that otherwise would be in his wheelhouse.

Bob Dobbs - what makes you so certain it will be a "he"?

""Bankers were excluded from communion ...""

What was George Santayana's most famous saying, again?

Idaho Free Speech Lady, Nope have not heard of her, but my State is corrupt, and you better know your P&Q's and stay on top of your business or they will fine you out the kazooooo if you are ignorant to the facts and can be intimidated. So, just don't do any thing wrong and hold your ground.

This is why Idonotunderstand sooooo many banks in trouble, was it greed, were they partying, just stupid, looking the other way, children in adult suits. I have sat in on Bank Board Meetings, traveled and Represented Banks looking at other banks cc systems and I have seen lots of uncalled for secrecy, untrained internal auditors, but nothing to compare to what has happened on Wallstreet.

Unemployment will certainly pass 10% in either October or November. The peak will not be until August 2010, at over 11%. This is based on an expected second Obama stimulus and the failure of a big bank overseas.

Broad appeal, lol.

I meant to say that. Yeah, right.

Cinco, You are so right. Thats the only way.

Well, it's a form of government: a public university system. And when I say "form," I mean "lesser form." I've done civil service before, and this... this is the playpen.

Sportsfan- you are arguing with a bunch of people who if Obama walked on water would complain that he didn't know how to swim !

How anybody on this board who has been arguing about personal responsibility and Americans over consumption can argue against the measures proposed beats the hell out of me. Of course all government debt depends on future tax payments for repayment- that is not something unique to savings bonds. But it seems to me that one can't argue against the stock market, bank cd's and government bonds. I suppose some people would rather buy gold and keep it under their mattress but is just not the way most of the world live their lives.

The substantive argument against what Obama announced today is that it runs counter to all the other economic policies that this administration has been advocating all of which are designed to get people to spend more. I think Obama needs to make up his mind whether our problem is we are saving too little or spending too little. As one who believes that our problem is that we have been spending too much /saving to little anything that results in more savings has to be applauded.

Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 2:41 pm
Well, yes and no.
A lot of modern policies (like mine) essentially expire when you turn 80.
So, if your pool has a lot of these, and folks outlive their policies, well, the insurance companies win, investors lose.

FWIW, that's the essence of life insurance; if you win, you lose, and if you lose, you win, or at least your beneficiaries do. BTW, do you still enjoy the tax free status of the returns if your policy expires?

Cool! I have something to look forward to.

Bob Dobbs - what makes you so certain it will be a "he"?
Who would follow someone they're being condescending to? But don't worry your pretty little head about it.

(Hmmm, do I need to follow this with a smiley? Nah, I'll just see what happens)

Solid article about health care in the NYT:

OP-ED COLUMNIST; Let's Get Fundamental - NY Times

I guess the next time Krugman goes to the doctor and is told something he will ignore it on the grounds that listening to an expert is irrational?

If the paradigm of that "expert's" institution requires irrationality for the institution to survive, then YES.

"You're saying that political correctness is more of a problem in the regular civil service service than in universities? "

No, the opposite. Especially if you're on staff at a university. It works both ways, badly. They pay extreme lip service to all the forms of PC and social justice and equality of the sexes and so on espoused by the academics. But they find ways around it when there's dirty work to be done or someone to be favored. It's the clubbiest place I've ever worked.That goes right to the top and down to the bottom.

"No, the opposite."

I misread your post. Thanks for clearing that up, I feel a little better now...

Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 4:18 pm
Ahhh, but how much does he object when you wear nothing else? [ducks]
Isn't George Stephanopoulos reputed to be a "power bottom", and wasn't the ridicule he received one of the reasons he left the Clinton Administration?

Some assume that minority female judges have gotten undeserved career breaks. For elected judges that's impossible by definition, unless 'minority females comprise the largest bloc within a local jurisdiction.
For nominated judges, when has a Senator been a 'minority' female? Just one.

crazyv (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 2:08 pm

The substantive argument against what Obama announced today is that it runs counter to all the other economic policies that this administration has been advocating all of which are designed to get people to spend more.

He wants to take your money so he can spend more. This is in part because those damn selfish taxpayers aren't spending (more debt) enough to keep the bubbles inflated.

This creates more debt. This is in no way different from any of other scheme we've seen for nearly two years.

patientrenter (profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 4:41 pm
The 1930's produced strong leaders in response to the popularly perceived need.
There's an old saying: "Great wars make great generals". Leaders are always there, but this only becomes apparent when the populace is desperate enough to accept the tough medicine that is required. Churchill was "in the wilderness" for a decade or so before England turned to him in their darkest hour-

Ok I thought about it a bit. The univ system really has a different vibe from state. I've worked at the state, univ, and tons of private corps and I'd still it has the most institutionalized misogyny. It's all wink wink nudge nudge but it's there.

[Gold Guns Girls] Nice performance. KCRW is the only remaining real radio station in LA. Gotta remember to send them a check.

" Leaders are always there, but this only becomes apparent when the populace is desperate enough to accept the tough medicine that is required"

I was thinking more of the trigger of Godwin's law, and Stalin, Mussolini, Franco, Tojo....

Aw come on now, after all is Sarah P just Huey Long in a skirt?

The aw shucks, screw 'em all, the taking on oil interests and her own party?

Who gets to write a line to compare with Robert Penn Warren's to start the book on her?

Someday this war's gonna end...

"I think Obama needs to make up his mind whether our problem is we are saving too little or spending too little."

Obama does not get it. The real problem is and has been government spending. It is not the public saving or spending.

The government forced SS on us as a benefit in old age. They robbed it. To off set that fraud they allowed us to do IRA's and 401K's. They left a nice little loop hole for their tax theft and that is the 10% extra tax if with drawn before retirement. This allows abuse and their extra profit. Now the savings bond is a direct play against these programs. They want money now and will probably pay more then the other investments will undercutting private business. Organized crime! Uncle Sam needs new fools.

In the academic end, the admin end, or both? In the academic end, I could definitely see it.I've dealt with those people.

In the administrative units, though, so much of upper management is female. We have a fair number of female VCs where I am. Had a couple of female chancellors, too, though the last one met an unfortunate fate that was not especially her fault.

A female cop?

Totally OT but a topic of serious discussion around the BBQ pit.

Who was/ is better?

1. TJ Hooker
2. Rockford Files
3. Magnum, P.I.

patientrenter (profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 5:34 pm
" Leaders are always there, but this only becomes apparent when the populace is desperate enough to accept the tough medicine that is required"
I was thinking more of the trigger of Godwin's law, and Stalin, Mussolini, Franco, Tojo....

Sorry to mess up your timing....ba-da-bing-

Citizen, I'm a woman in a male dominated world, and I promote women every chance I get. Don't matter her politics, her religion , her status or what anyone thinks about her, Oh shucks why don't you start the book on her sounds like she is one of your interest.

This August, the teenage unemployment rate — that is, the percentage of teenagers who wanted a job who could not find one — was 25.5 percent, its highest level since the government began keeping track of such statistics in 1948. Likewise, the percentage of teenagers over all who were working was at its lowest level in recorded history.

re heroes;

Watched a superb 2005 documentary (netflix) recently, "The Goebbels Experiment". 100% contemporary footage, 100% monologue of Kenneth Branagh dramatically reading from his diary plus speeches with sub-titles.

As always the German government's own footage and written record is infinitely more jolting than any derivative work. As always, A. Hitler [post-Godwin] stole the show. At a huge rally in 1938, full throat:

"Some of you may not forgive me for eradicating the Marxist Party.
But remember, I eradicated ALL the parties. [huge applause]"

No hint of irony.

Goebbels noted that Russian soldiers were shooting themselves rather than be taken prisoner. "Our propaganda is not getting through." The film ends with a famous shot of his six beautiful young children in white clothes, orderly laid out, poisoned.

Ok no laughing but here is one for Joanna
An acquaintance from years ago swore that male cops made the best one night stands!

Julie Andrews had a bedroom scene with Jim Garner in "The Americanization of Emily." She later told the story of filming that sequence and how, when they were done, she stood up and her knees buckled and she hit the floor.

So I'd have to say Rockford Files!

I'll take the shout out for the plot, tyvm
energyecon: Deficit as a % of Spending

Alright, revised ?

Who was/ is better?

1. Stingray
2. Rockford Files
3. Magnum, P.I.

Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 5:45 pm
An acquaintance from years ago swore that male cops made the best one night stands!

Right; "an acquaintance"

As always, A. Hitler [post-Godwin] stole the show. At a huge rally in 1938, full throat:
Hitler perfected the Nuremberg Rally.
Reagan perfected the Electronic Nuremberg Rally.

HomeGnome, I think the four beers win.

1. Rockford Files
2. Magnum, P.I.
   added: 3) MacGuyver

I don't promote men every chance I get, and I sure wouldn't promote that woman.

I admire and think the world of a lot of women, but she is a demagoge that would not lead us anywhere that we would like.

You want brains and beauty- Krysten Sinema of Arizona Member Page - now that is a person who can be admired- there are republican women too. Gov. Jan Brewer comes to mind quickly.

But not her.

No, not her.

Mason City.
To get there you follow Highway 58, going northeast out of the city, and it is a good highway and new.

Feckless Ness (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 5:48 pm
Did he say why, Jane?
ROFLMAO-
+1

burnside, I'm pretty sure we are just getting warmed up.

I can't speak for nationwide trends, but I've seen households where the teens turn in their money to the family pot. The parents expect it, because they're just squeaking by. A couple of hundred bucks a month can make a huge difference, sometimes. I don't know how big a slice of teen employment this represents -- but I expect it to grow.

"As always, A. Hitler [post-Godwin] stole the show. At a huge rally in 1938, full throat:"

By one of the conspirators he was known as 'the pig', or 'emil.'

I've met one of Stauffenberg's descendants. He's a devout Catholic and a member of a religious organization whose activities I take part in. I've never had the chance to speak with him about Count Stauffenberg.

"An acquaintance from years ago swore that male cops made the best one night stands! "

You know that there are "cop groupies", right?

Feckless Ness (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 5:41 pm
Male cop = ego + credential + bureacracy. Trumps a female cop by a mile.

Perhaps, but they're easily distracted by a pair of female breasts.

Well it really is Administration, Academia, and staff. Vice chancellors down to deputy directors would be horrified by being referred as staff, not that they will ever admit it publicly.

So on a scale of worst to best-
Academia
Staff
Administration

I attribute much of the misogyny to acculturation, too many nationalities involved. You don't that so much with Administration. That is where the classism card gets played.

Saw another doc a couple years ago about Shirley Chisolm, who ran for President in 1972 and irritated the black male political "establishment". All I remember from childhood is that she was a media laughingstock, a tiny woman with none of the grooming of Rice or Obama.

Talk about a hero. Unbelievable fighter, ahead of her time.

Big part of teen unemployment is that a lot of jobs that used to be Mom n Pop seasonal hires were now year round and often filled by illegals, especially landscaping and construction. Not because they were willing to work for lower wages, but because they were more reliable and didn't go back to school so ownership could expand their market reach.

hahahaha I dated a sherrif once. he turned into a mild stalker, just creepy. No thanks

"Have we reached an Orwellian world where saving is now debt creation...
It will be an Orwellian world when saving isn't debt creation"

crazyv, what's your exposure to economics/finance?

My 24 year old brother is under constant attack by two fifty year old cougars.
Weirds me out man.

It's a little too late for that...

it's never to late to 'come out'

Rockford Files... I gotta back Julie Andrews up on this.

The rest of the roomies say Rockford too but only because Jim Mcgarret isn't on the list

JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 6:17 pm

it's never to late to 'come out' Tongue

Or just tell them they need to get tested for AIDS-

I appreciate the "Cougar Call off Tips" but I don't think they would be deterred.
It is kinda amusing watching these mature ladies trying to "out slut" one another.

these mature ladies trying to "out slut" one another

horrid mental image. time for a nap or something.

"Rawk skool produces four-finger scale-grinders. Dull."

Then I guess you would really be disappointed by ten-fingered scale-grinders like Jordan Rudess.

Mrs. Gnome just told me that I'm "sweet as summer corn".
Ha!

To quote Mr. T: "I pity the fool."

At 53, with little kids, I think I'm within my rights...

Feds Hoenig speech released today from 30 days back..good info..my bad if repost.....

http://www.kc.frb.org/speechbio/hoenigpdf/hoenigKBA.08.06.09.pdf

lots of chart porn too...

he must be trying to lose his job as he says we have too much debt.....

CR crowd says duh!

“I’m sort of stunned, it seems like a dire warning . . . that even the jobs people are retaining in this recession aren’t at the wage level and hours level that they need to provide for their families,” said Heidi Shierholz, economist at the Economic Policy Institute.

Can somebody make up a little tiny lapel pin of the Mortgage Pig™ saying "Hoocoodanode?" I'd buy them by the dozen and send them to people like Heidi Shierholz.

Both.

Just needed a fresh egg.

Will make interesting genetic science someday, like whether placental blood has any affect. I know the source code is hard-wired, but...

Now I'm late...

Certainly a dire warning for her to retain her job, if she's stunned that the poor get poorer.

No time, but if you paste some morsels to show that the quote is out of context or my sarcasm misplaced, I'll check back later. Stagflation didn't stun me in the 80's, only that economists could be stunned by it.

"Perhaps if you actually read some of Heidi Shierholz posts..."

OK, I just skimmed four of them, thanks for the link. My quick and dirty conclusion is that Heidi is a serious analyst with an agenda. I disagree with her repeated assertion that unemployment benefits should be extended again. You may now assert that I have an agenda as well.

@ sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 3:58 pm

Heidi is a serious analyst with an agenda
I agree
I disagree with her repeated assertion that unemployment benefits should be extended again
I agree with you

Wikipedia: "The Economic Policy Institute is a left-leaning US think tank. "

We were trying to figure out if Heidi had a political agenda. She may be right or wrong on any specific analysis she does, but when judging anyone's work you don't know, it helps to understand the agendas.

Extended unemployment benefits are going to do nothing for many self-employed & sole proprietors, and the 1/3 of the newly unemployed in August (construction workers) who are without work and have been and will continue to be because that industry is not coming back and those skills are not easily transferable.

If the UE benefits get extended, I think they should throw something to those hurting folks too.

Since we're spreading money all around, we should at least try to make it a little equitable.

@ Outsider (profile) wrote on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 4:04 pm
Extended unemployment benefits are going to do nothing for many self-employed....

Bingo like me !

The Federal Reserve is spending a trillion dollars in 2009 alone buying mortgage-backed securities, to keep air in the RE bubble. I'd much prefer if it diverted some or all of that money to things like extended UE benefits, to allow people mis-employed in FIRE and other bloated sectors time to find new productive activities.

Elaborating on sm_landlord (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 9/5/2009 - 4:09 pm

1. The money would be better spent encouraging the creation of new jobs.

Name an industry that can produce 1 million new, high-paying jobs over the next three years. You can't, because there isn't one. And that's the problem.

America needs good jobs, soon. We need 6.7 million just to replace losses from the current recession, then an additional 10 million to keep up with population growth and to spark demand over the next decade.

How Science Can Create Millions of New Jobs - BusinessWeek

sm_landlord, I don't think that's controversial at all.

It has been noted by a friend of mine, and I think rightfully so, that in the past, the unemployed stayed unemployed until their benefits ran out. When the benefits ran out, bingo, they found a job. Coincidence? I think not.

Of course, this downturn is nothing like the last ones. That's why I advocate that as long as benefits are being extended and created beyond what the original intent was for, that they also spread those benefits to the un-covered.

patientrenter, I think you are right but, so long as the message from Washington is second-half recovery, recession has ended, employment to recover soon, housing prices have bottomed, those people will mostly wait patiently for their prior arrangements to reappear.

They have been given every encouragement to expect the return of FIRE.

Outsider writes;
"I don't think that's controversial at all."

Citizen AllenM seems to disagree with you (and me). See above. I guess I'd better go find some rubber chicken.

It would sure be nice (fairer) to spread the bennies around, but we have this little problem with deficits. I would rather see the money go to supporting new productive industry. Maybe if the government would stop beating up on the VCs? Get serious about fixing the education system? Even subsidize some infrastructure? I don't see any of this happening, with the exception of a few roads being resurfaced.