I'm here for the repost, not the riposte
I think CR can finally admit this Recession is worse than his personal experience of California in the early 1980s
Number of Hours Worked per Civilian Sees New Low

Long U6!

Nemo's bound to tease you about the blue shading shortage, CR...

C

from last thread:

What's the story on seafood? You're in the right place for Maine lobster, and I think it's high in iodine, and that effects the thyroid. Has your MD said anything about that? - Cinco

Yes, I get a lot of iodine, but too much is not good, either. The type of thryroid problem I have is called Hasimoto's thyroiditis. It's auto-immune, like rheumatoid arthritis.My thyroid is slowly being destroyed by my own body. So I will have to be on thyroid replacement hormone forever. There's no cure. OTOH, it's a lot easier to manage than diabetes. I'm grateful I don't have to inject insulin. BTW, the seafood here is totally yummy! Also the beer-- Harpoon IPA rocks!

The Labor Department in Washington said productivity, a measure of employee output per hour, rose at a 6.6 percent annual rate in the three months through June.

Worker Productivity

Productivity of U.S. workers rose in the second quarter at the fastest pace in almost six years, the Labor Department’s data showed, as companies squeezed more out of remaining staff to boost profits. Labor costs, adjusted for the gain in efficiency, fell by a revised 5.9 percent annual pace, the most in nine years.

WE need more friggn robots and sharks with lasers

thyroid ?? Hormones??

See shitloads of exercise and balanced diet

BED survey from Q4 08 says 1.8mm jobs lost
Initial establishment said 1.4mm lost, minus the B/D is 1.6

I would like to add the household info, but teasing the info out makes my head hurt.

But to surmise, the correlation between the initial and ultimate jobs # is increasing, but the B/D model still needs to be ignored .

Employment Situation News Release (October 08)
Employment Situation News Release (November 08)
Employment Situation News Release (December 08)

Nice work on the recent unemployment news, CR.

Any way one looks at it, these numbers are pretty bad. And a case can be made that they are worst than they appear.

While one can believe that unemployment is a lagging indicator, and thus will improve with the widely-held theory that the economy is improving, I've put together my own thoughts on the matter. For those interested, here is a link to my recent blog posts on "Why Companies Aren't Hiring":

"Why Aren't Companies Hiring?" | EconomicGreenfield

Not to mention the millions (?) of workers who are still full time but have had their wages cut significantly. This is not counted but has a huge impact. One of the reasons that this mess will take a lot longer to work itself out than the pundits think.

And I remember going to restaurants in the early 80s and being the only people in the place

Ahhh, back in the days when people paid by cash/check.

The Bonddad Blog

"Overall I'd call this a lukewarm report. I don't like the increase in the unemployment rate, but it's not surprising. The overall rate of job losses are still moderating, the rate of individual losses in various industries are decreasing and two measures of labor under-utilization (part-time for economic reasons and discouraged workers) appear to be topping."

Doing my part for the local economy here - C

Is "Custer's Last Stand" still in Boston? They used to have food, beer, music and movies-- great place.

scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:58 am

Is "Custer's Last Stand" still in Boston? They used to have food, beer, music and movies-- great place.

Don't go into the city much-, but there's a new House of Blues that's supposed to be a very nice venue.

I think from today's release we will now see further downward revisions to income (and output, meaning they misjudged inventory again I guess) and GDP while at the same time no matter how bad the economy is, imports will be at their highest of the year, which will reverse the trend of imports declining faster than exports boosting GDP numbers. It's all these little things that make me think the seasonal variation will be playing against any hopes of demonstrating a recovery. I'm thinking if I was the NBER and not wanting to make the call too early again, I would wait until at least Jan 2010 before dating a July 2009 end to the recession

Must... resist... urge... to... short.... more.....

This is a good point over here across the blog:

[hat tip]

Re: "The treasury market continues to grind higher in price and lower in yield"

"Those gains are achieved on the backs of workers ( I still have a residue of my younger radical days before I tasted crustaceans) who are fired or are working less. Consequently, the income stream to workers is reduced and one then must question, I believe, the sustainability of any recovery."

Eric (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 12:02 pm

Must... resist... urge... to... short.... more.....
The urge will correct itself...........
........when you run out of capital

Same numbers as the mid 1980s and late 1970s.

What next? Disco? Big hair bands? Glam rock?

Oh no. There's a 2009 Kiss tour, and it's mostly sold out. KISSONLINE.com > Tours > ALIVE/35: 2009 NA Tour, Sonic Boom: 2010 Euro Tour >

Doc Holiday (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 12:03 pm
"Those gains are achieved on the backs of workers ( I still have a residue of my younger radical days before I tasted crustaceans) who are fired or are working less. Consequently, the income stream to workers is reduced and one then must question, I believe, the sustainability of any recovery."

If recoveries were sustainable by this definition, they'd just be the normal economy. Retractions are a necessary ingredient for recoveries by their very definition.

Moon shot!

I talked to an acquaintance yesterday who told me that her grandaughter "wasn't getting enough hours to pay her bills" and was going to move back from the east and move in with grandma in California. [Strikes a chord on so many levels discussed her, eh.]

Question: If a person quits her job because hours (and income) have been reduced to an uneconomic level, can they get UI?
Second Question: In this case she will be moving between states. Will CA pay UI when most recent job was in another state?

eric

wow...good news on the labor front, lives

@ Live Free of Debt- yes, I really like the Peddler's Daughter. Although I don't speak the language, I can understand when it's spoken to me.

That is a great, great great point about the yields going down as productivity goes up! We have 50+ year lows with Treasury yields, $12 Trillion in toxic garbage, a thousand banks ready to fail, a few thousand hotels failing , increasing unemployment, increasing foreclosures --- but productivity going up for those that are able to be employed within the ruling class dynasty.

The correlation between increased productivity and a systemic economic collapse screams massive volatility ahead -- because fewer people will be part of the jobless recovery!!

Stuff that in your and then ask yourself if the ruling class will be paying higher taxes to support those that keep up!

picosec (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 12:09 pm
Second Question: In this case she will be moving between states. Will CA pay UI when most recent job was in another state?

Quite a few NH residents work in MA, and when laid off, collect UEI in MA.

Ah but all those wage cuts have done wonders to increase our productivity numbers.

creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 12:18 pm

daring you to go short.....I double dog dare you....you stinkin retail investor...

Yes; GS has your number-

Ah but all those wage cuts have done wonders to increase our productivity numbers. - T

In a way, that's true. For example, Intel has been using attrition to get rid of the deadwood since the tech bust. They've also pretty much eleiminated HR, travel, the secretaries, and a lot of purely admin management. They've kept the hard core engineering and chip people-- peeling right down to the core.

There is a chance Corus will not go down today - it may be next Friday - depends on the number and variety of bids they received

mp (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:14 am
reply ignore user
"There are a lot of incentivized economists pushing for the NBER to date July 2009 as the end..."
Well, someone has to do it. Personally, I think the current recession is--technically speaking--over.
...Personally, I don't care what NBER does.

You've won a convert. While it never did matter what the NBER did I was one of those that carped that their proclamations had merit. You've convinced me to demote their efforts to merely irrelevant and beneath notice.

On the other matter however... If we are pushed to time bracket this term of economic malaise and slap a recession label on it then I think we are still in the recession that started Q2 of 2001.

....unless they have one BIG BANK for today's BFF, it might be a light weekend. Knowing that all FDIC people will be busier than one-armed paper-hangers after this long weekend, they might have told the underlings "enjoy the long Labor Day weekend, it'll be your last for awhile"..............hmmmm.....I bid 2

The moon shot is just happy spin on the jobs report, IMO. I bet it sags after the rush wears off. Anyway, off to lunch. Later, dudes!

why dollar dive after 11:00 today?

INO Futures and Commodities - Currencies - $ INDEX Sep 2009 (E) (NYBOT:DX.U09.E) Price Chart and Quote

"If we are pushed to time bracket this term of economic malaise and slap a recession label on it then I think we are still in the recession that started Q2 of 2001."

One can certainly make a case for that. It simply depends on how one wants to define it. You'll get no argument from me.

Personally, I think NBER is purposefully vague. They want it that way.

Basel
if you are out there
Econbrowser: Furloughed professors

For people unfamiliar with the UC teaching platform, they have restrictions on when and where they can teach. All faculty are considered employed 100% and the only difference is if you are a 9 month or 11 month duration.

For example, an 11 over 12 can only earn extra salary during 1 month of the year. It's not uncommon to see a prof with 1 month of summer salary on a sponsored project. 9 over 12 follows a similarly.

Once they go over that 1 month or 3 months summer salary, it has to be taken as cost sharing and the feds watch that committed ratio a lot closer now then they did 5 years ago. That doesn't mean there aren't ways and ways and yet more ways to 'manage' the system.

A furlough or salary cut for faculty is never cut and dry. As I said yesterday, it's complicated. But I still stand by the opinion that the Oakland Univ folks were operating in a collective myopia.

On the other matter however... If we are pushed to time bracket this term of economic malaise and slap a recession label on it then I think we are still in the recession that started Q2 of 2001.

Or even further back, starting with Greenspan's 1995 experimental "soft landing".

EDIT: Disregard, I read something else into your post entirely. Critical reading skills are in short supply today, it seems.

A number of interesting fights going on in the midwest and mountain west between the state and local governments and their employee unions - the governments want the employees to take salary freezes or cuts, and to take furlows, and the unions are digging in, figuring the governemnts cannot do layoffs. Illinois, Denver, Omaha are just a few, and they are threatening layoffs if the unions do not come to an agreement - this might get really interesting.

So when Corus finally does get taken down what do you think the hit to FDIC will be?
Any guesstimates?

the governments want the employees to take salary freezes or cuts, and to take furlows, and the unions are digging in, figuring the governemnts cannot do layoffs.

One of the arguments used in renegotiating government/union labour contracts in Toronto was that this went against the union's "negotiations in good faith".

I almost choked on my coffee when I read that. Good-faith union negotiation is an oxymoron.

Doc Holiday (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 12:35 pm
as this process continues to drag out (with 1000 banks) fewer people will be impacted by the porn-like novelty, thus the only thing that will add adrenaline will be failures of BIG BANKS. BFF will be just another boring topic like TARP and all that other stuff, and obviously no one has a clue as what a $12 Trillion pile of shit really looks like --

That's probably too big a pile to put in your frame of view (except from a long distance away), but you can sure guess what it going to smell like-

sounds like I have to catch up.... this got interesting >; (

Government and State employee's sometimes are off the reservation when it comes to the state of the econ, have a good freind at the courthouse bitching about not getting a raise, just said bygawg if you were in private business your job would already be gone.
..............

Most of my coworkers have been ivory tower their entire working lives. A lot graduated from this school, and went right to work here. They used to laugh me off when I told tales of the real world. Not any more.

But faculty still clings to their raft on De Nile....

CR, you're down in OC correct?

You may not have them yet but they have certainly been growing in the central valley over the last 15+ years I've been here. There wasn't even much a halt in the population during our 97-00 growth years. YMMV

Since end of 01/2008 to 08/2009

Civilian labor force add 0,7 Millions

Unemployment add 7,4 Millions

Not in labor force Add 2,7 Millions

Total 10 Millions not working.

I suggest to add the Not in labor force graphic because it is very usefull to understand the total collaps in economy

The geometry regulating giant balls of shit will save us
......................
How funny....the stupid bathroom grafitti rhyme has been in my head today -

those who write on bathroom walls
roll their shit in little balls....

etc.

Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 12:44 pm

The geometry regulating giant balls of shit will save us. A ball of shit twice as large will only have 4πr^2 smell area but 4/3πr^3 "containment" capacity.

I wonder how many of the Liberal Arts grads got that

Joanna (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 12:46 pm

etc.

Have YOU taken the gender test at:
SparkLife

Part of me wonders if Ken could introduce the ability to post images into the threads, and most of me concludes that this would be an absolutely terrible idea.

splat (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:47 am

In even a year, I think we will be amazed by what people will do for that amount of money.

Many state dept did this in 93-94 and never got the numbers back. Other depts have added admin like crazy.

I work in a dept that never recovered from the reductions in the early 90s and a few of the old school faculty still complain that they don't individual secretaries. The others have new ways to sploit the system.

Many state dept did this in 93-94 and never got the numbers back. Other depts have added admin like crazy.
...............

I'm lucky to work in the library. We have more discretionary budget that academic departments. We've slashed acquisition funds, and dumped some unfilled positions, which is the only thing keeping the rest of us employed. Other depts. had nothing to cut but staff. Our whole football program got dumped a few months ago.

Someday this war's going to end.

Rob,

You have forgotten to take into account the force of gravity and the viscosity of shit balls. Back to the chalk board for you!

I believe what we are seeing is intermittent economic strength before another downturn, unfortunately...

The falling knife is serrated.

Come on Yancey, I'm trying to eat lunch here!

Starting from GenX, all youngsters are toast because only jobs available will be fixing toasters or similar. In the end they might decide to roast the elderly baby boomers while burning down the house for big thank you very f*cking much

Sounds like you've got some librarians who love to party!

Oh, wait. Nevermind.

If we were allowed to post images, this could become a thread about hammered librarians.

Just think of the possibilities.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The head of the U.S. Federal Housing Administration said on Friday the agency would not need a congressional subsidy even if its capital reserve ratio fell below the 2 percent demanded by Congress.

"Even if that level falls below 2 percent, FHA continues to hold more than $30 billion in its reserves today, or more than 5 percent of its insurance in force," FHA Commissioner David Stevens said in a statement. "Given this reserve level, FHA will not need a congressional subsidy even if the congressional capital reserve calculation falls below 2 percent."

FHA says won't need congressional support
| Reuters

Look at Kermit go

Ya and look at the USD tanking.

the first trading day following a holiday is up.

Reminds me of Kirk and Spock playing Fizzbinn.

SiG,

Good list and summation, especially on #1.

Yancey Ward (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:59 am

Rob,
You have forgotten to take into account the force of gravity and the viscosity of shit balls. Back to the chalk board for you!

I remember chalkboards. In fact neanderthal that I am, I think they are still the best place to flat represent the best new ideas. It's real hard to box off the upper right corner for dirty limericks or the top center banner spot for who's turn to host the kegger of an email. I was at a lecture in the early 80s when there were three (two at the time) Nobels in the audience while the speaker was expounding on his Nobel work and he needed to make more space for a formula and went to erase some nonsense on the right. A half dozen upperclasspersons half rose out of their seats in protest. He paused and read te scribbles and said we needed to talk more about the nonsense.

You know, the numbers preceded by "$" have co-opted or future. We don't even have those kinds of cross discipline lecture series' anymore because too much of what we learn gets precaptured by either the military or financial complexes.

BTW, gravity is an opinion not a fact.

Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:08 am

animated gif of an LOLCAT?
That would be fine, actually. We have six cats, and that's one of my daily stops on teh interwebs.

I would respect someone who doesn't bookmark lolcats. My favorite topical lol from last week:

"The light at the end of the tunnel has teeth and claws."

When this market finally crumbles (and I have no idea when it will), will I have listen to everyone around me at work (getting hosed for the 9th time in the last 10 years) saying hoocodanode? And complaining how buy and hold ain't working out?

I spent some time roaring at Chase today.

Imbeciles.

They garnished my client's accounts which are for SS and can't be
garnished, Dissolved the writ of Garnishment at least a week ago,
and the local branch still refused to give her her money. And the
local person wouldn't talk to me.

I tracked down the person who actually releases the funds--in Louisiana--
and they said it had be lifted. I said then why won't the locals release the
money??? Dunno. So I called the local and said, take down this number.
Then read it back to me. He hadn't taken the number down, but then
he did. Then I gave him the name of the person to call. Then I told him
who I was and who the account holder was. Then he said the manager
will call me. I said don't bother, unless the funds are released. I'm
asking for atty fees!

LMAO!

the problem is voluntary separation.
California Unemployment Insurance Code Section 1256 - California Attorney Resources - California Laws

does the fed/treasury need to defend dollar when they announce new treasury auctions or does the indirect bidder ( or banks) wrap around negate that?

Another potential foreclosure client.

Non cashflowing investment property on the West Coast of Florida,
Plus, cut in overtime/ cut in salary.

A police officer.

The bank won't talk to him because he's not behind.

Me--well, get behind!

proof of insanity.

Off to lunch.

Get thee behind me, Satan.

"Looks like we have a good chance at getting back to break-even for the week. "

Not bad. if you're not a bad news bear.

Long bond yield ticking up, could be 0.1% up on the dial if the rally continues in equities.

C

How about a little BFF thread music?
YouTube - Queen - 'Another One Bites the Dust'

"Banks are horrible that way. "

I once worked as a reader for the paperback book division of the Hearst Corp. They neglected to pay me at the end of one week, said the check wouldn't be available till the following week, so I found the guy who was holding the check and began to produce steam out of my ears and nostrils. He looked sour, but he did hand over the check. It was in his desk drawer.

He looked sour, but he did hand over the check. It was in his desk drawer.

Was it for the full amount, or one of those 'half now, half never' types of companies?

I think it might have something to do with - those most likely to have been made homeless in the 80's were probably renters and few homeowners all of whom were thrown onto the street once they missed their payments. This time most of them are homeowners (courtesy of the bubble) and while they are delinquent on the their mortgages unlike renters they are not being thrown out immediately and waiting to be foreclosed on.

If the banks get around to foreclosing we still might see it.

picosec-grew up in lakewood down the way a little..I think rockwell was in downey too..with mcdonnell douglas 10 miles south of it..had a lot of techy neighbors then (aviation, aerospace in 70's)

They do in Ca as it is seen as an opening for possible corruption charges.