My wife likes watching HGTV. Espically the "House Hunters" series. I like looking at them because they remind me the old nuclear war movies.
Like the one last night. A real estate developer. in Florida is looking for a new house. His son is the real estate agent showing them the different houses. This was 2 years ago probably. Big huge houses, trophy wife, and a Hummer. Grandkids and beautiful views of the water.
The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering.
Rob Dawg,
I agree if recovery means going back to the failed eCONomics of the bubble years.
But under a more appropriate monetary system and with a more equitable distribution of wealth, fewer people working fewer hours could be viewed as greater societal affluence.
From the thread a repost that is tangentially on topic.
Here's a story about local govt's getting whacked with increased contributions into the State pension funds. Another " we didn't see this coming" . Hoocoodanode the stock market performance last year would cause losses in the fund that would have to be made up elsewhere - like higher taxes.
Nuke if you are out there you may want to pour a shot of sambuca into your coffee -throw the coffee away and down what's left in the bottle before reading this.
"Contribution rates will average 11.9 percent in February 2011 for the Employees' Retirement System, up from 7.4 percent next year. The rate will be 18.2 percent for the Police and Fire Retirement System, up from 15.1 percent in 2010.
Not in this article but elsewhere it is estimated that this will cause an increase in property taxes in the neighborhood of 10%.
creditcriminalslovetarp, oh, I get plenty of thanks. Thanks to you and everyone here!
Besides I enjoy doing this (although I prefer better times). It is not all bad news: the diffusion indexes are moving up (less widespread job losses), and the unemployed greater than 26 weeks didn't increase much.
The five month, 50% rebound in the S&P 500 was certainly spectacular. However, the more important question is where to from here?
Take a look at Japan's "Two Lost Decades" for clues.
Creative destruction in conjunction with global wage arbitrage, changing demographics, downsizing boomers fearing retirement, changing social attitudes towards debt in every economic age group, and massive debt leverage is an extremely powerful set of forces.
Bear in mind, that set of forces will not play out over days, weeks, or months. A Schumpeterian Depression will take years, perhaps even decades to play out.
Thus, deflation is an ongoing process, not a point in time event that can be staved off by massive interventions and Orwellian Proclamations "We Saved The World".
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'Employment Report: 216K Jobs Lost, 9.7% Unemployment Rate' Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:56 am
The thing that concerns me as this submarine approaches crush depth is the failure to understand that there are levels of unemployment that are not maintainable. IMO 10% is one such level. Actually U-3 is meaningless. What matters is U-6 and 16.5%. The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering. This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
There's presently economic activity in filling pipelines for presumed Xmas sales (for the consumer driven portion of the economy). If that turns out to be a bust, I sense that late Nov. and Dec. could be really bad months for employment, despite temporary jobs in retail. Companies won't be taking a "wait and see" approach, but rather will be cutting fast and hard to compensate for capital tied up in inventory. I do think we'll have to wait and see how Xmas sales are going to be before we know how bad it will be-
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 6:56 am This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
Leveraged debt economy = liquid metal reactor.
Hiccup = freeze solid.
Alas, another Alfa lost to a burp in the turbo-pump.
Where will these people go back to work? How many of them need $XXX amount of money to service their "lifestyle" How many of them are over 40? What can they do that will feed the economy of a country that depends on consumer spending?
From a 2005 NY Fed report (most recent stats I could find), 3.4 million jobs were lost here due to offshoring between 1997 and 2003. As we know, this has been a cumulative and on going process that encompassed many years before 1997, as well asf the years after 2003.
I think this is a root cause of our economic problems. The Fed in their Orwellian illogic did not however, stating "A new measure of the jobs gained and lost in international trade flows suggests that the net number of U.S. jobs lost is relatively small—2.4 percent of total U.S. employment as of 2003."
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:12 am
Cinco-X,
The Wall St. Ginch stole Christmas.
My point to Rob was that a possible trigger for his scenario to play out might come in the early Dec. time frame, though no one can rule out that it might come sooner.
Re: unemployment-- striking difference between New Hampshire (where I am now), and Oregon (where I live). New hampshire is much better off. The economy here is much more diverse, not so dependent on a narrow range of industries. It's like a big screaming sign: diversify, diversify, diversify. Also, there are no crowds of homeless people here, in contrast to Portland.
CR: thanks and all that. But after reading the explanation of what these numbers are and how they were arrived at it has to make you wonder if the old adage rings true:
There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.
Note the difference in the shapes of the peaks for the most recent two recessions compared to the 1982 recession. Although the '82 peak was high, the decline from it was sharp.
CR,
it would be interesting to see what the peak of the last recession would look like if scaled up to bring its peak to current unemployment rate, so as to show how slowly unemployment will decline if the current recession's peak takes the same shape.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:18 am
Re: unemployment-- striking difference between New Hampshire (where I am now), and Oregon (where I live). New hampshire is much better off.
“I can’t explain the program to anybody,” said Mayor Rimeikis
//Ahh, can't you guess? another federal program.
some more good quotes about a HUD program to buy foreclosures.//
“I have had more complaints on this,” said Councilman Chip Coleman at Tuesday’s Finance Committee meeting.
“What will it take to administer the program?” Mayor Pranas Rimeikis added.
Town Planner Bryan Hill said phase two of the project would be pursued with assistance from the consultant and Virginia Department of Housing and Community Development, state administrator for the HUD program.
“What do we have to do? What are the parts and pieces of this program?” the mayor said.
Hill responded that he imagined there would be 300 pieces for each action required through the federal initiative. He said the consultant would help interpret “each and every step” from Fair Housings laws to environmental assessments and more.
The total of all bank loans (commercial, construction, consumer) has dropped from just over $8 trillion to $7.64 trillion, or just under 5%, from Q208 to Q209. The larger businesses can still sell bonds (to a certain extent) to raise capital - the smaller businesses are royally screwed. There is no way employment is going to improve in any material way until the main street businesses can get access to capital.
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised upward
from -443,000 to -463,000, and the change for July was revised from -247,000 to -276,000."
In the first graph comparing the stress test assumptions vs. actuals the actual has been 33bps higher on average. Projecting forward you get:
Q4 2009 10.03%
Q1 2010 10.33%
Q2 2010 10.63%
Q3 2010 10.73%
Q4 2010 10.73%
Unfortunately I think holiday shopping is going to be a major disappointment and I see unemployment spiking higher in Q1.
Hey, cinco! I had forgotten how humid it is here, too. Most of the homes I saw had a mildew and mold problem. They had to delay the start of school in Hollis because of mold.
I grew up in the fifty's and sixty's and homes were built out of the local communty forrest, no mold till this day even if homes are not occupied. So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:31 am
Hey, cinco! I had forgotten how humid it is here, too. Most of the homes I saw had a mildew and mold problem. They had to delay the start of school in Hollis because of mold.
LOL; You're coming from the Pacific NW and talkin' about humidity
BTW, this year is REALLY bad; the rain in June was Biblical in nature
CR.....as always - you are King of the Blogosphere. More importantly, these logs will be a handbook showing the path to oblivion. Very well-measured and needed data from YOUR input and us, the study subjects.
It's really time now to face it - or we can let it slide again until October-November. With the immense numbers falling off the Fed-Tit weekly paycheck wagon, one of two things will happen. The FedGov will stop additional emergency funding prompting riots and looting. Or, they'll propose another stop-gap extension of benefits to tide Americans over for another 3-months. Each extension will positively effect less people. The deficit will continue to rise, more weekly fires will need to be extinguished, and the dollar will continue to deteriorate faster and faster, until JUST ONE of our creditors pulls our plug - game over.
You're coming from the Pacific NW and talkin' about humidity - C
Ah, but you see, it hardly rains at all between July and the end of October. You have to irrigate at that point. Dry, dry weather like the rest of the West. And then the "monsoon" comes around Thanksgiving.
MaryAnn (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:36 am
I grew up in the fifty's and sixty's and homes were built out of the local communty forrest, no mold till this day even if homes are not occupied. So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans.
That's a complicated question; more recently built homes, and some retrofitted homes are much tighter than the homes you (and I) grew up in, so they don't breathe well. However, more and more homes are built with more finely processed materials (much like more food is made with more finely processed sugar, etc.), and these are often more sensitive moisture, e.g. OSB. There's a whole science regarding building envelope design.
BTW, in the search to cut cost, some knowledge from older generations has been lost. Ask today's roofers about kick-out flashing, and you have a 50%-50% chance of them returning a blank stare-
The mold is probably more from shoddy constrution than humidity. We also did have monsoons for half the summer. And those school projects, well,my suspicion is once again just shoddy workmanship.
"So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans. "
.....I could venture a guess - the toxic glues, resins, and chemicals (like formaldehyde, benzene....) in particle board, insulation, a number of wraps, sealants, textures and coatings.
This is OT, but a really weird thing happened to my post last night. Kcoop, are you here? Someone replied to my post and it actually ended up IN my post. I feel so violated.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:47 am
"So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans. "
.....I could venture a guess - the toxic glues, resins, and chemicals (like formaldehyde, benzene....) in particle board, insulation, a number of wraps, sealants, textures and coatings.
VOCs are a problem, but they probably don't contribute to mold growth, formaldehyde in particular.
@ Outsider -- hi there! It must be said, the houses I was looking at were pretty decrepit. The one I really liked was so bad the other realtor wouldn't let us in without him-- he was afraid we'd put our feet through the rotten floorboards! Some of the old homes are in very sorry shape, it's too bad, really.
scone - one more comment and then once again I'll pipe down & stop polluting the thread. When we moved here we were astounded at all the dumps. It was very hard to find a half decent house. It ain't the gold coast, that's for sure. The builders just don't seem to care. Take your time. You'll find a nice one in the haystack.
Shoddy home building conspiracy! Who made that garbage? Who wholesaled and retailed it? Who certified it was fit for human habitation? Was it material to the US trade deficit? Quick, someone tip Glenn Beck or that fat fool on CNN whose name escapes me because it's been so long since I watched it!
Don't a lot of the older houses in the NE also have asbestos insulation problems? - OHC
Well, depends. Most houses built before about 1975 have lead and asbestos somewhere. It's not really a problem unless the stuff is "loose," i.e. paint chips or asbestos fibers hanging around. You can get the stuff removed as hasmat, but that costs a pretty penny. It's not a code requirement to remove it in a residence, AFAIK.
When we moved here we were astounded at all the dumps. - O
I was hoping to buy something cheap and be mortgage free, but that may not be possible. OTOH, I will probably end up designing and building a new place, which for me is fun. And I don't think you "pollute" the thread, at all. Thanks for all your help!
" the toxic glues, resins, and chemicals (like formaldehyde, benzene....) in particle board, insulation, a number of wraps, sealants, textures and coatings..."
or as an alternative.. harvested 12 thousand board feet of timber from mt st helens blow down, milled by packwood lumber (now bk sadly...mill was disassembled and off shored)
and built log cabin
only chemicals...linseed oil and parafin coating wood in and out...beautiful deep orange brown glow thru out house
unfortunately this is no longer possible today due to R factors and codes...walls would have to be 16 inches thick
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:53 am
Shoddy home building conspiracy! Who made that garbage? Who wholesaled and retailed it? Who certified it was fit for human habitation? Was it material to the US trade deficit? Quick, someone tip Glenn Beck or that fat fool on CNN whose name escapes me because it's been so long since I watched it!
C
There has been talk about defective Chinese drywall-
Making homes more energy efficient by creating vapor barriers with wraps has the dual effect of not letting it breathe sufficiently. Combined that with vocs and hot humid conditions and you've got yourself a nice little greenhouse.
I worked in retail for a few years in the 1992 to 1996 time frame. I think a lot of retailers are going to have an "oh sh!t" moment sometime right around black friday....
Look for massive discounts BEFORE the holidays this year. Deals will likely be better than post holiday since when the liquidators come in they don't give the stuff away whereas someone trying to generate cash flow will in the hopes that things will turn around "soon enough".
Mike in Long Island (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:03 am
black dog,
I worked in retail for a few years in the 1992 to 1996 time frame. I think a lot of retailers are going to have an "oh sh!t" moment sometime right around black friday....
Look for massive discounts BEFORE the holidays this year. Deals will likely be better than post holiday since when the liquidators come in they don't give the stuff away whereas someone trying to generate cash flow will in the hopes that things will turn around "soon enough".
Good luck.
Mike in Long Island, good point about retailers. The past two years people have predicted poor holiday numbers, and I think this year is going to be even worse, especially if the stock market has another big downleg this fall as I expect.
Outsider (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:07 am
My daughter asked me "What I can I major in during college and make money?"
Plumbing. One of the only sureties I know is that people are gonna need septic services. And running water.
I grew up in rural AL. Not quite so sure about that
scone - we went thru the "we'll just build something ourselves" phase too. It's part of the natural process, after realization sinks in that you're not gonna live for free up here in anything other than a really depressing place.
If you actually accomplish that route, which we didn't, keep in mind passive solar and geothermal.
One of the only sureties I know is that people are gonna need septic services. And running water.
Yes. Those 2 things - septic and running water will easily be met when more folks are living in tents. Septic will be the hole in the ground - with an outhouse if they are mid to upper middle class and running water will the nearby stream provided it doesn't freeze up in the winter or dry up in the summer drought.
Making homes more energy efficient by creating vapor barriers with wraps has the dual effect of not letting it breathe sufficiently. Combined that with vocs and hot humid conditions and you've got yourself a nice little greenhouse. - R
That can happen. In this case, I observed mold and a strong mildew smell, in all the homes I looked at, some fairly new, some 200 years old. The old ones certainly leaked air pretty well! All these homes were on the bottom of the MLS in price, some short sales anf foreclosures. They were all decidedly filthy.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:08 am
Just a reminder that the #1 Premium BFF Poll is open at the polls link.
I voted 1, but I think it may be a biggie-
Mike - LOL. Well, someone's gonna have to repair all the frozen pipes in the abandoned homes. The bandos may even chip in for plumbing repairs. Priorities, you know.
nova - personally I think that's great advice. Seems to be a supply squeeze in critical inquiry these days. The other crud can be applied, with due discretion, later, especially if involves models, frameworks, theory, precedent etc.
Outsider (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:10 am
Mike - LOL. Well, someone's gonna have to repair all the frozen pipes in the abandoned homes. The bandos may even chip in for plumbing repairs. Priorities, you know.
LOL; the bandos will take the plumbing with them when they leave
If you actually accomplish that route, which we didn't, keep in mind passive solar and geothermal. - O
I will. I've built before, and have done a lot of construction and remodeling over the last couple of decades. So I actually feel more confident with that than just buying. But there's another thing. IMO there's a real gap in the local market for one-level "wheelchair ready" homes. The demographics support this, but the supply isn't there, and what is there is overpriced and gets snapped up fast. And I really don't want to rip up an historic home to put in wider doors and bigger baths. So, I think it makes sense to build, for me.
ot-
some swine flu news-college football started last night and we get our first forfeit bcse of it...I wonder if this will happen with some big colleges?
If you actually accomplish that route, which we didn't, keep in mind passive solar and geothermal. - O
I will. I've built before, and have done a lot of construction and remodeling over the last couple of decades. So I actually feel more confident with that than just buying. But there's another thing. IMO there's a real gap in the local market for one-level "wheelchair ready" homes. The demographics support this, but the supply isn't there, and what is there is overpriced and gets snapped up fast. And I really don't want to rip up an historic home to put in wider doors and bigger baths. So, I think it makes sense to build, for me.
Anybody in your household in a wheelchair?
I'm in a small company on the forefront of alternative energy solutions. I can tell you that the lack of access to credit has caused us to freeze hiring and non-essential spending across the board to conserve capital. The promised DOE stimulus money has still not been allocated, much less spent. At this rate, it probably won't ramp up until next year. On top of that, the entire energy industry is in lock-down mode - we've not received a single RFP in 6 months - presumably because they'd rather wait for the DOE money than spend their own. We've lowered our rates, and passed that on to our contractors.
We live in an affluent area, but several friends have been laid off or are in danger of same in the coming months. Nobody is spending money. Retail stores are ghost towns, and service providers are low-bidding to get work. Craigslist is full of high-end cars and consumer electronics people are trying to unload for quick cash.
I just don't see how any of this translates into a good Q3 or Q4.
“The key ingredient for a sustainable recovery is still absent,” said Tony Crescenzi, a market strategist and portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “We need income growth to produce self-reinforcing expansion.”
Officials at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco have said there is a “new normal” in the global economy that will include heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy. U.S. growth rates will slow to around 2 percent over the next several years, according to the firm.
mock - I have contacts in New Zealand who have regaled me with the incompetence, damage, and (in local terms, eye-wateringly large) bail-outs that went with what they called "leaky homes syndrome". Aside from the quasi-medical sounding description (which is kinda irresponsible, like it arrived unannounced like the flu), it sounded like a classic case of suppliers pressuring the certification and inspection regime to loosen standards, allowing crap framing and untreated timbers, dubious jointing, roofing, eaves etc, and cheap-ass spraycrete over the chicken wire or tyvek equivalent. Great recipe for a temperate and sometimes humid environment. Water gets in, nowhere to go, rot and mold chews out lousy framing, spraycrete cracks, balconies fall off etc.
Those in San Francisco-style turn of the century villas seem to be fine...
I'm just thinking about the future. Some of my doctors think I have MS or some other nerve disorder. Others think it's nerve damage from long-standing undiagnosed hypothyroidism. In any case, something is happening, my nerves are not communicating perfectly with my muscles. So I may be in a wheelchair someday. Or maybe not. In any case, I'm 53 and will some day be a lot older, I hope, so it's best to be prepared. One thing I know, I won't be living in a house with 9 inch stair risers, like I saw on this trip. That's a bit much for me even now.
scone, if I were building now, I'd add the radon equipment right into the new house. If nothing else, it will exhuast your basement air on a regular basis, keeping fresh air flowing down there.
Doc Holiday (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:19 am
Cinco-X, et al
New poll fini
Since you put the poll in the context of the CR reader's viewpoint, I had to go with 2). That said, I think the rest of the economy is still at 1)-
xxxxx
scone, if I were building now, I'd add the radon equipment right into the new house. If nothing else, it will exhuast your basement air on a regular basis, keeping fresh air flowing down there.
Yes, indeedy. Also filtering equipment on the water. Lots of old tanneries and mills around here. And shallow dug wells.
Oh my, could it be? The FRE/FNM stock pump job can be sheeted back to the desire to keep them listed on the NYSE? Surely that could never happen in an Efficient Market?
The U.S. government and the Fed have spent, lent or committed more than $12 trillion in a bid to revive the economy and credit markets. Policy makers said Aug. 12 they would let a $300 billion program to buy long-term Treasuries expire in October, even as they pledged to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an extended period. The benchmark rate is a range of zero to 0.25 percent.
Also: The 10-year yield will climb to 3.76 percent at year-end, according to a Bloomberg survey of banks and securities firms, with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings. Two-year yields will increase to 1.24 percent by year-end, according to the survey.
Then see: Historically, the typical difference between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield—known as the spread—has been roughly 1½ percentage points. In the mortgage industry, the difference between these two rates is often referred to as a "risk premium."
If she is just starting college she has plenty of time to figure out what she likes to do.
Taking liberal arts sounds like the right thing to do until she decides what she wants to wake up every morning and enjoy doing.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:22 am
Anybody in your household in a wheelchair? - C
I'm just thinking about the future. Some of my doctors think I have MS or some other nerve disorder.
I'm sorry to hear that; BTW, you might want to think about a more natural diet, like growing your own veggies, etc. Ya' never know-
We're still in the planning phase of our new home (going on 3 years now), and our plan is a 2 story, but with the kid's facilities upstairs so that we can shut it off when they leave and we can live on the 1st floor, laundry and all.
Good luck-
Just a quick thought on Corus...since it has minimal to no retail presence and relatively a small number of locations; the only thing holding up the FDIC has got to be the monstrous proportion of losses on their loan portfolio. Maybe a blinding flash of the obvious...but perhaps the action earlier this week was the intel getting out as to how truly bad the losses are going to be.
I have to disagree about the liberal arts route. I'm thinking science and math. Anyone can do liberal arts, you really don't need training for that. Focus on math & science that not everyone can do, esp. without training, and minor in liberal arts if you want personal enrichment classes.
Outsider (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:29 am
I have to disagree about the liberal arts route. I'm thinking science and math. Anyone can do liberal arts, you really don't need training for that. Focus on math & science that not everyone can do, esp. without training, and minor in liberal arts if you want personal enrichment classes.
Yes. She will at least be able to hold a conversation when gets out. Plus, I told her there wasn't going to be any jobs for at least 3 years so you might as well hide out at school since we are paying for it.
I work(ed) in new construction. If I go into a new house that is being built, my sinuses instantly clog up becuase of some chemical in the wood or sheet rock. Once the house is finished , I guess the paint & flooring cover up whatever I am allergic to, and I don't have this problem. Don't know what would happen if I actually lived in one though.
To me, the best type of new construction materail is light weight concrete. It is used a lot in the carribean, and was used in Ireland to build embassys when the IRA bombings were problematic. It's strong, energy efficent, and inexpensive. Sadly it is not used here. A friend of mine who is a builder from Ireland built a 2000 SF beach house in SC made out of light weight concrete. He had a heck of a time with the subs, as the walls are preformed with conduit areas built in for utility lines, but he said the construction costs on the house were only $70K total..
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:26 am
Fannie, Freddie Avoid Delisting
/btw, why are they listed at all? Sgd, Confused of Maryland.
I'm sorry to hear that; BTW, you might want to think about a more natural diet, like growing your own veggies, etc.- C
Thanks, Cinco, I'm doing the natural/organic diet thing, and I feel a lot better now that I'm on thyroid meds. So the nerve damage may heal itself over time. That's what my present doctor thinks. At any rate, you never know when anyone might need to use a wheelchair, I was in one as a child (unrelated incident). It's not so bad, really, especially the new sport models. But chairs and level changes are a PITA, of course. I think there will be a huge demand as the boomers become geezers.
I'd agree, except that the humanities is the sector of academia where groupthink/intellectual conformism is strongest these days. Speaking as someone who earned a liberal arts undergrad degree...
Counterpointer
The change in volume reeks to me of someone willing to squeeze a few more drops out of this market before it plummets. Everything else is falling back .The best SP500 stocks in August were AIG, Eastman Kodak, MBIA, Citigroup, Genworth Financial, Hartford Financial, Regions Financial, Zions Bancorp, Lexmarket, Apartment Investment & Management Co, Lennar, ... ,
then the Shanghai market yesterday, and gold fever (JP Morgan simply has too much market share for them to not control the pace) It's not DB's DXO closing out leading to a move into gold, and besides what kind of effect would DXO selling all its barrels come Sept 9 cause? Oil to go down which is bad for gold
O H Chick (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:32 am
.....
To me, the best type of new construction materail is light weight concrete. It is used a lot in the carribean, and was used in Ireland to build embassys when the IRA bombings were problematic. It's strong, energy efficent, and inexpensive. Sadly it is not used here. A friend of mine who is a builder from Ireland built a 2000 SF beach house in SC made out of light weight concrete. He had a heck of a time with the subs, as the walls are preformed with conduit areas built in for utility lines, but he said the construction costs on the house were only $70K total..
Point well taken; We're planning to use ICFs in our home.
A federal judge ruled the ratings agencies, Moody's Investors Service and McGraw-Hill's Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, must defend a lawsuit over the collapse of a $5.86 billion structured investment vehicle in 2007. The judge threw out 10 of the 11 claims against the companies.
The firms had long argued that their ratings of securities were constitutionally protected opinion. But a federal judge ruled Wednesday that the ratings of certain securities - those that are distributed to a limited number of investors - don't deserve the same free-speech protection as more general ratings of corporate bonds that were widely disseminated.
@ OH Chick - re lightweight concrete - there is a house using the insulated concrete form system going up near where I live in Oregon. It's been featured in Fine Homebuilding, but it's not common, that's for sure. Builders are a conservative lot, on the whole, and don't like the risk in trying new things. They got so burned on EPS in the 80's, just for one example.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:35 am
I'm sorry to hear that; BTW, you might want to think about a more natural diet, like growing your own veggies, etc.- C
Thanks, Cinco, I'm doing the natural/organic diet thing, and I feel a lot better now that I'm on thyroid meds. So the nerve damage may heal itself over time.
What's the story on seafood? You're in the right place for Maine lobster, and I think it's high in iodine, and that effects the thyroid. Has your MD said anything about that?
Doc Holiday - mighty bold consensus rates for the 10-year note. Let's see, that would have the yield climb to levels not seen since, ooh, Aug 6-10, June 5-12 and 17-19... Distant past, obviously.
Mike in Long Island
If you want to develop listening skills, don't go into a program with good communicators. Go into engineering, learn it in a chalunging (sic) environment
Day-care centers and other facilities responsible for young children should make sure their employees get vaccinated against the seasonal flu and the swine flu to keep facilities open during the upcoming flu season, federal health officials said Friday.
The jobs are in health care now, not the fabled hard sciences that green-corp people are hyping. Maybe someday, if public research is really ramped up. If someone wants a quick job they should do a 2 year degree in one of the health care fields. Otherwise, just study what one is interested in and don't take on debt because the job market is bad in almost every sector.
cinco........
unless you are very young, robust, deaf and full of energy, think single story. Have had split levels, 2, 3 story homes with kids from 3-30. Our perfect choice was single-story, master bedroom separated from rest of life by patio, two-sets of sliders, locked gates and two-walls of R-21 insulation. The kids set off dynamite, play surround sound anything, form heavy-metal rock band, try indoor skeet shooting, lob hand grenades - you can't hear it.
"BTW, in the search to cut cost, some knowledge from older generations has been lost. Ask today's roofers about kick-out flashing, and you have a 50%-50% chance of them returning a blank stare-"
Ask a roofer about flashing, period......It's a bucket of tar, in'it?
Recessions over.
Good thing too, CR ran out of Blue Shading.
More stress = more printing.
repost due to evil pig and actually on topic
My wife likes watching HGTV. Espically the "House Hunters" series. I like looking at them because they remind me the old nuclear war movies.
Like the one last night. A real estate developer. in Florida is looking for a new house. His son is the real estate agent showing them the different houses. This was 2 years ago probably. Big huge houses, trophy wife, and a Hummer. Grandkids and beautiful views of the water.
Then the bomb drops....
Thanks CR for your data and forum..sometimes we dont say "thanks" enough
why or why cant they tell the truth is it because that speaking it will make it true?
The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering.
Rob Dawg,
I agree if recovery means going back to the failed eCONomics of the bubble years.
But under a more appropriate monetary system and with a more equitable distribution of wealth, fewer people working fewer hours could be viewed as greater societal affluence.
Yes thank you CR. And the commentariat.
From the
thread a repost that is tangentially on topic.
Here's a story about local govt's getting whacked with increased contributions into the State pension funds. Another " we didn't see this coming" . Hoocoodanode the stock market performance last year would cause losses in the fund that would have to be made up elsewhere - like higher taxes.
Nuke if you are out there you may want to pour a shot of sambuca into your coffee -throw the coffee away and down what's left in the bottle before reading this.
Governments to pay more into Common Retirement Fund
"Contribution rates will average 11.9 percent in February 2011 for the Employees' Retirement System, up from 7.4 percent next year. The rate will be 18.2 percent for the Police and Fire Retirement System, up from 15.1 percent in 2010.
Not in this article but elsewhere it is estimated that this will cause an increase in property taxes in the neighborhood of 10%.
Who says there's no inflation!!
creditcriminalslovetarp, oh, I get plenty of thanks. Thanks to you and everyone here!
Besides I enjoy doing this (although I prefer better times). It is not all bad news: the diffusion indexes are moving up (less widespread job losses), and the unemployed greater than 26 weeks didn't increase much.
best to all.
amazingly graphic color portrayal of unemployment distribution by county across the usa
File:USA 2008 unemployment by county.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Shovel-ready statistics from the BLS. Great charts from CR.
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Creative Destruction
Factors Sealing The Deflationary Fate
The five month, 50% rebound in the S&P 500 was certainly spectacular. However, the more important question is where to from here?
Take a look at Japan's "Two Lost Decades" for clues.
Creative destruction in conjunction with global wage arbitrage, changing demographics, downsizing boomers fearing retirement, changing social attitudes towards debt in every economic age group, and massive debt leverage is an extremely powerful set of forces.
Bear in mind, that set of forces will not play out over days, weeks, or months. A Schumpeterian Depression will take years, perhaps even decades to play out.
Thus, deflation is an ongoing process, not a point in time event that can be staved off by massive interventions and Orwellian Proclamations "We Saved The World".
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'Employment Report: 216K Jobs Lost, 9.7% Unemployment Rate'
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:56 am
The thing that concerns me as this submarine approaches crush depth is the failure to understand that there are levels of unemployment that are not maintainable. IMO 10% is one such level. Actually U-3 is meaningless. What matters is U-6 and 16.5%. The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering. This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
There's presently economic activity in filling pipelines for presumed Xmas sales (for the consumer driven portion of the economy). If that turns out to be a bust, I sense that late Nov. and Dec. could be really bad months for employment, despite temporary jobs in retail. Companies won't be taking a "wait and see" approach, but rather will be cutting fast and hard to compensate for capital tied up in inventory. I do think we'll have to wait and see how Xmas sales are going to be before we know how bad it will be-
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 6:56 am
This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
Leveraged debt economy = liquid metal reactor.
Hiccup = freeze solid.
Alas, another Alfa lost to a burp in the turbo-pump.
cinco-x
sorry it will be a score of years
Cinco-X,
The Wall St. Ginch stole Christmas.
Where will these people go back to work? How many of them need $XXX amount of money to service their "lifestyle" How many of them are over 40? What can they do that will feed the economy of a country that depends on consumer spending?
With out a good does of hope, we be doing what?
Eating better, exercising, treating those around us better and saving?
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:09 am
amazingly graphic color portrayal of unemployment distribution by county across the usa
File:USA 2008 unemployment by county.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Very pretty; too bad there's no legend
nova maybe goldman sachs will adopt us all. /snark
and with that im going outside with play with the gnats.
nova maybe goldman sachs will adopt us all. /snark
and with that im going outside with play with the gnats
Get a couple stuck in your eyes for me!
more green shooties news: Record: 35 million US food stamp recipients
Food stamp list soars past 35 million: USDA
| Reuters
Erin in all her smugness was on The Today show this morning.
Twice this week I've heard her declare the recession OVER.
Also mentionned the markets have risen every day this year when the payroll number was released.
Repost becuase of pig:
From a 2005 NY Fed report (most recent stats I could find), 3.4 million jobs were lost here due to offshoring between 1997 and 2003. As we know, this has been a cumulative and on going process that encompassed many years before 1997, as well asf the years after 2003.
I think this is a root cause of our economic problems. The Fed in their Orwellian illogic did not however, stating "A new measure of the jobs gained and lost in international trade flows suggests that the net number of U.S. jobs lost is relatively small—2.4 percent of total U.S. employment as of 2003."
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci 11-8/ci 11-8.html
U.S. Jobs Gained and Lost through Trade: A Net Measure- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:12 am
Cinco-X,
The Wall St. Ginch stole Christmas.
My point to Rob was that a possible trigger for his scenario to play out might come in the early Dec. time frame, though no one can rule out that it might come sooner.
Re: unemployment-- striking difference between New Hampshire (where I am now), and Oregon (where I live). New hampshire is much better off. The economy here is much more diverse, not so dependent on a narrow range of industries. It's like a big screaming sign: diversify, diversify, diversify. Also, there are no crowds of homeless people here, in contrast to Portland.
CR: thanks and all that. But after reading the explanation of what these numbers are and how they were arrived at it has to make you wonder if the old adage rings true:
There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics.
No homeless issue (NH v OR) is weather and safety net related.
Note the difference in the shapes of the peaks for the most recent two recessions compared to the 1982 recession. Although the '82 peak was high, the decline from it was sharp.
CR,
it would be interesting to see what the peak of the last recession would look like if scaled up to bring its peak to current unemployment rate, so as to show how slowly unemployment will decline if the current recession's peak takes the same shape.
Could you make us such a graph?
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:18 am
Re: unemployment-- striking difference between New Hampshire (where I am now), and Oregon (where I live). New hampshire is much better off.
That's what's indicated in the map linked here:
Comment by mock turtle from thread 'Unemployment: Stress Tests, Unemployed over 26 Weeks, Diffusion Index'
Cinco-x
sorry about no legend to color map
i linked directly to the big version , my error
heres the legend to be found in the original article
scroll half way down for the mini map
and the legend
thanks for the heads up
Unemployment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
“I can’t explain the program to anybody,” said Mayor Rimeikis
//Ahh, can't you guess? another federal program.
some more good quotes about a HUD program to buy foreclosures.//
“I have had more complaints on this,” said Councilman Chip Coleman at Tuesday’s Finance Committee meeting.
“What will it take to administer the program?” Mayor Pranas Rimeikis added.
Town Planner Bryan Hill said phase two of the project would be pursued with assistance from the consultant and Virginia Department of Housing and Community Development, state administrator for the HUD program.
“What do we have to do? What are the parts and pieces of this program?” the mayor said.
Hill responded that he imagined there would be 300 pieces for each action required through the federal initiative. He said the consultant would help interpret “each and every step” from Fair Housings laws to environmental assessments and more.
'I can't explain the program to anybody' | Culpeper Star-Exponent
The total of all bank loans (commercial, construction, consumer) has dropped from just over $8 trillion to $7.64 trillion, or just under 5%, from Q208 to Q209. The larger businesses can still sell bonds (to a certain extent) to raise capital - the smaller businesses are royally screwed. There is no way employment is going to improve in any material way until the main street businesses can get access to capital.
someone mentioned the natural employment rate
NAIRU, like the cake, is a lie
From the Ministry of Truth
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised upward
from -443,000 to -463,000, and the change for July was revised from -247,000 to -276,000."
How convenient.
Nova, you so mean, your mean is mean, but I love it to, then I have to pray for laughting.
For all the crap that come out of Erin, she sure is easy on the eyes.
In the first graph comparing the stress test assumptions vs. actuals the actual has been 33bps higher on average. Projecting forward you get:
Q4 2009 10.03%
Q1 2010 10.33%
Q2 2010 10.63%
Q3 2010 10.73%
Q4 2010 10.73%
Unfortunately I think holiday shopping is going to be a major disappointment and I see unemployment spiking higher in Q1.
BelieverJeff, is there any other reason to watch CNBC? Most of their females are easy on the eyes.
Hey, cinco! I had forgotten how humid it is here, too. Most of the homes I saw had a mildew and mold problem. They had to delay the start of school in Hollis because of mold.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
you beat me to it
Thank you Maryann
I grew up in the fifty's and sixty's and homes were built out of the local communty forrest, no mold till this day even if homes are not occupied. So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:31 am
Hey, cinco! I had forgotten how humid it is here, too. Most of the homes I saw had a mildew and mold problem. They had to delay the start of school in Hollis because of mold.
LOL; You're coming from the Pacific NW and talkin' about humidity
BTW, this year is REALLY bad; the rain in June was Biblical in nature
CR.....as always - you are King of the Blogosphere. More importantly, these logs will be a handbook showing the path to oblivion. Very well-measured and needed data from YOUR input and us, the study subjects.
It's really time now to face it - or we can let it slide again until October-November. With the immense numbers falling off the Fed-Tit weekly paycheck wagon, one of two things will happen. The FedGov will stop additional emergency funding prompting riots and looting. Or, they'll propose another stop-gap extension of benefits to tide Americans over for another 3-months. Each extension will positively effect less people. The deficit will continue to rise, more weekly fires will need to be extinguished, and the dollar will continue to deteriorate faster and faster, until JUST ONE of our creditors pulls our plug - game over.
CR,
I noted a slight bright spot at the far right of graph 2. You calling the recession done early?
Does anyone happen to know if BLS publishes their measurement error?
You're coming from the Pacific NW and talkin' about humidity - C
Ah, but you see, it hardly rains at all between July and the end of October. You have to irrigate at that point. Dry, dry weather like the rest of the West. And then the "monsoon" comes around Thanksgiving.
MaryAnn (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:36 am
I grew up in the fifty's and sixty's and homes were built out of the local communty forrest, no mold till this day even if homes are not occupied. So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans.
That's a complicated question; more recently built homes, and some retrofitted homes are much tighter than the homes you (and I) grew up in, so they don't breathe well. However, more and more homes are built with more finely processed materials (much like more food is made with more finely processed sugar, etc.), and these are often more sensitive moisture, e.g. OSB. There's a whole science regarding building envelope design.
BTW, in the search to cut cost, some knowledge from older generations has been lost. Ask today's roofers about kick-out flashing, and you have a 50%-50% chance of them returning a blank stare-
hi scone - someone dares to diss utopia?
The mold is probably more from shoddy constrution than humidity. We also did have monsoons for half the summer. And those school projects, well,my suspicion is once again just shoddy workmanship.
Just a thought. You came on a beautiful week.
"So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans. "
.....I could venture a guess - the toxic glues, resins, and chemicals (like formaldehyde, benzene....) in particle board, insulation, a number of wraps, sealants, textures and coatings.
Scone,
Don't a lot of the older houses in the NE also have asbestos insulation problems?
This is OT, but a really weird thing happened to my post last night. Kcoop, are you here? Someone replied to my post and it actually ended up IN my post. I feel so violated.
Dr. Jennifer Howard Article: Dealing with Your Job Loss
Are we in stage 3 now??
Unfortunately I think holiday shopping is going to be a major disappointment
It ain't happening.
And by It I mean the consumer feeling good about spending. I'm in retail and I'm telling you xmas is going to 'bomb'.
A lot of small businesses that have made it this far are holding on for dear life and a 'Hail Mary' xmas. A lot of tough decisions will be in january.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:47 am
"So what chemicals is creating mold that in return creates bad allergy reactions in humans. "
.....I could venture a guess - the toxic glues, resins, and chemicals (like formaldehyde, benzene....) in particle board, insulation, a number of wraps, sealants, textures and coatings.
VOCs are a problem, but they probably don't contribute to mold growth, formaldehyde in particular.
@ Outsider -- hi there! It must be said, the houses I was looking at were pretty decrepit. The one I really liked was so bad the other realtor wouldn't let us in without him-- he was afraid we'd put our feet through the rotten floorboards! Some of the old homes are in very sorry shape, it's too bad, really.
scone - one more comment and then once again I'll pipe down & stop polluting the thread. When we moved here we were astounded at all the dumps. It was very hard to find a half decent house. It ain't the gold coast, that's for sure. The builders just don't seem to care. Take your time. You'll find a nice one in the haystack.
Shoddy home building conspiracy! Who made that garbage? Who wholesaled and retailed it? Who certified it was fit for human habitation? Was it material to the US trade deficit? Quick, someone tip Glenn Beck or that fat fool on CNN whose name escapes me because it's been so long since I watched it!
C
Don't a lot of the older houses in the NE also have asbestos insulation problems? - OHC
Well, depends. Most houses built before about 1975 have lead and asbestos somewhere. It's not really a problem unless the stuff is "loose," i.e. paint chips or asbestos fibers hanging around. You can get the stuff removed as hasmat, but that costs a pretty penny. It's not a code requirement to remove it in a residence, AFAIK.
Oh, and don't forget, go heavy on the radon testing. And well water sampling.
/piping down now for the last time
Doc Holiday (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:49 am
Dr. Jennifer Howard Article: Dealing with Your Job Loss
Are we in stage 3 now?? Santa
We need a poll; I'm going to say a large portion of the country is still in denial-
When we moved here we were astounded at all the dumps. - O
I was hoping to buy something cheap and be mortgage free, but that may not be possible. OTOH, I will probably end up designing and building a new place, which for me is fun. And I don't think you "pollute" the thread, at all. Thanks for all your help!
To put seasonally adjusted insured unemployment into perspective, one must step back outside of the unemployment box:
Pentimento - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
What are VOCs??
voc = volatile organic compounds. Bad for the air and your brain/nerve cells.
" the toxic glues, resins, and chemicals (like formaldehyde, benzene....) in particle board, insulation, a number of wraps, sealants, textures and coatings..."
or as an alternative.. harvested 12 thousand board feet of timber from mt st helens blow down, milled by packwood lumber (now bk sadly...mill was disassembled and off shored)
and built log cabin
only chemicals...linseed oil and parafin coating wood in and out...beautiful deep orange brown glow thru out house
unfortunately this is no longer possible today due to R factors and codes...walls would have to be 16 inches thick
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 10:53 am
Shoddy home building conspiracy! Who made that garbage? Who wholesaled and retailed it? Who certified it was fit for human habitation? Was it material to the US trade deficit? Quick, someone tip Glenn Beck or that fat fool on CNN whose name escapes me because it's been so long since I watched it!
C
There has been talk about defective Chinese drywall-
Cinco-X,
I'm on it
Making homes more energy efficient by creating vapor barriers with wraps has the dual effect of not letting it breathe sufficiently. Combined that with vocs and hot humid conditions and you've got yourself a nice little greenhouse.
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:00 am
only chemicals...linseed oil and parafin coating wood in and out...beautiful deep orange brown glow thru out house
unfortunately this is no longer possible today due to R factors and codes...walls would have to be 16 inches thick
Consider straw bale construction; my BI won't allow it, but it's popular in some locales- Thick wall however, though I think they look nice.
black dog,
I worked in retail for a few years in the 1992 to 1996 time frame. I think a lot of retailers are going to have an "oh sh!t" moment sometime right around black friday....
Look for massive discounts BEFORE the holidays this year. Deals will likely be better than post holiday since when the liquidators come in they don't give the stuff away whereas someone trying to generate cash flow will in the hopes that things will turn around "soon enough".
Good luck.
"Good jobs" are not coming back.
My daughter asked me "What I can I major in during college and make money?"
For how many decades has there been an answer to this?
Plastics
Law
Computers
MBA
What now?
I told her to get a Liberal Arts degree.
Mike in Long Island (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:03 am
black dog,
I worked in retail for a few years in the 1992 to 1996 time frame. I think a lot of retailers are going to have an "oh sh!t" moment sometime right around black friday....
Look for massive discounts BEFORE the holidays this year. Deals will likely be better than post holiday since when the liquidators come in they don't give the stuff away whereas someone trying to generate cash flow will in the hopes that things will turn around "soon enough".
Good luck.
No worries:
Discover (R) Small Business Watch (SM): Small Business Confidence Rises to Highest Level in 18 Months
Discover (R) Small Business Watch (SM) - Rasmussen Reports™
My daughter asked me "What I can I major in during college and make money?"
Plumbing. One of the only sureties I know is that people are gonna need septic services. And running water.
Mike in Long Island, good point about retailers. The past two years people have predicted poor holiday numbers, and I think this year is going to be even worse, especially if the stock market has another big downleg this fall as I expect.
Doc Holiday (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:02 am
Cinco-X,
I'm on it
A pole about where the poll-ee is, or where the bulk of the country is?
counterpointer
your comment re shoddy home building is right on target
ive toured more than a dozen new homes in our neck of the woods and the crappy construction is alarming
sheathing not afixed to studs and rafters in places, as the row off nails shot from above missed the supporting member
electrical outlets that rattle loosely in the wall...chip board and fiber board where plywood would be better on the roof and floor
but hey the counter tops, paint and wood trim are beautiful
Just a reminder that the #1 Premium BFF Poll is open at the polls link.
Now I'm off to wash and wax the
Outsider (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:07 am
My daughter asked me "What I can I major in during college and make money?"
Plumbing. One of the only sureties I know is that people are gonna need septic services. And running water.
I grew up in rural AL. Not quite so sure about that
scone - we went thru the "we'll just build something ourselves" phase too. It's part of the natural process, after realization sinks in that you're not gonna live for free up here in anything other than a really depressing place.
If you actually accomplish that route, which we didn't, keep in mind passive solar and geothermal.
One of the only sureties I know is that people are gonna need septic services. And running water.
Yes. Those 2 things - septic and running water will easily be met when more folks are living in tents. Septic will be the hole in the ground - with an outhouse if they are mid to upper middle class and running water will the nearby stream provided it doesn't freeze up in the winter or dry up in the summer drought.
Making homes more energy efficient by creating vapor barriers with wraps has the dual effect of not letting it breathe sufficiently. Combined that with vocs and hot humid conditions and you've got yourself a nice little greenhouse. - R
That can happen. In this case, I observed mold and a strong mildew smell, in all the homes I looked at, some fairly new, some 200 years old. The old ones certainly leaked air pretty well! All these homes were on the bottom of the MLS in price, some short sales anf foreclosures. They were all decidedly filthy.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:08 am
Just a reminder that the #1 Premium BFF Poll is open at the polls link.
I voted 1, but I think it may be a biggie-
Mike - LOL. Well, someone's gonna have to repair all the frozen pipes in the abandoned homes. The bandos may even chip in for plumbing repairs. Priorities, you know.
nova - personally I think that's great advice. Seems to be a supply squeeze in critical inquiry these days. The other crud can be applied, with due discretion, later, especially if involves models, frameworks, theory, precedent etc.
C
Outsider (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:10 am
Mike - LOL. Well, someone's gonna have to repair all the frozen pipes in the abandoned homes. The bandos may even chip in for plumbing repairs. Priorities, you know.
LOL; the bandos will take the plumbing with them when they leave
If you actually accomplish that route, which we didn't, keep in mind passive solar and geothermal. - O
I will. I've built before, and have done a lot of construction and remodeling over the last couple of decades. So I actually feel more confident with that than just buying. But there's another thing. IMO there's a real gap in the local market for one-level "wheelchair ready" homes. The demographics support this, but the supply isn't there, and what is there is overpriced and gets snapped up fast. And I really don't want to rip up an historic home to put in wider doors and bigger baths. So, I think it makes sense to build, for me.
Well, Cinco, all the more reason plumbers will be in demand.
ot-
some swine flu news-college football started last night and we get our first forfeit bcse of it...I wonder if this will happen with some big colleges?
Flu forces Stillman to forfeit game
Stillman cancels game vs. Clark Atlanta due to swine flu outbreak - ESPN
Forget 'jobless recovery'.
This is a recoveryless recovery.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:13 am
If you actually accomplish that route, which we didn't, keep in mind passive solar and geothermal. - O
I will. I've built before, and have done a lot of construction and remodeling over the last couple of decades. So I actually feel more confident with that than just buying. But there's another thing. IMO there's a real gap in the local market for one-level "wheelchair ready" homes. The demographics support this, but the supply isn't there, and what is there is overpriced and gets snapped up fast. And I really don't want to rip up an historic home to put in wider doors and bigger baths. So, I think it makes sense to build, for me.
Anybody in your household in a wheelchair?
I'm in a small company on the forefront of alternative energy solutions. I can tell you that the lack of access to credit has caused us to freeze hiring and non-essential spending across the board to conserve capital. The promised DOE stimulus money has still not been allocated, much less spent. At this rate, it probably won't ramp up until next year. On top of that, the entire energy industry is in lock-down mode - we've not received a single RFP in 6 months - presumably because they'd rather wait for the DOE money than spend their own. We've lowered our rates, and passed that on to our contractors.
We live in an affluent area, but several friends have been laid off or are in danger of same in the coming months. Nobody is spending money. Retail stores are ghost towns, and service providers are low-bidding to get work. Craigslist is full of high-end cars and consumer electronics people are trying to unload for quick cash.
I just don't see how any of this translates into a good Q3 or Q4.
Treasuries Fall as Focus Shifts to Auctions After Jobs Report - Bloomberg.com
Oh shit, there is a new "normal" .......
“The key ingredient for a sustainable recovery is still absent,” said Tony Crescenzi, a market strategist and portfolio manager at Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund. “We need income growth to produce self-reinforcing expansion.”
Officials at Newport Beach, California-based Pimco have said there is a “new normal” in the global economy that will include heightened government regulation, lower consumption, slower growth and a shrinking global role for the U.S. economy. U.S. growth rates will slow to around 2 percent over the next several years, according to the firm.
SciFi shows Escape from New York (Snake Plissken!). Maybe TV is trying to tell me something...
Cinco-X, et al
New poll fini
mock - I have contacts in New Zealand who have regaled me with the incompetence, damage, and (in local terms, eye-wateringly large) bail-outs that went with what they called "leaky homes syndrome". Aside from the quasi-medical sounding description (which is kinda irresponsible, like it arrived unannounced like the flu), it sounded like a classic case of suppliers pressuring the certification and inspection regime to loosen standards, allowing crap framing and untreated timbers, dubious jointing, roofing, eaves etc, and cheap-ass spraycrete over the chicken wire or tyvek equivalent. Great recipe for a temperate and sometimes humid environment. Water gets in, nowhere to go, rot and mold chews out lousy framing, spraycrete cracks, balconies fall off etc.
Those in San Francisco-style turn of the century villas seem to be fine...
C
Anybody in your household in a wheelchair? - C
I'm just thinking about the future. Some of my doctors think I have MS or some other nerve disorder. Others think it's nerve damage from long-standing undiagnosed hypothyroidism. In any case, something is happening, my nerves are not communicating perfectly with my muscles. So I may be in a wheelchair someday. Or maybe not. In any case, I'm 53 and will some day be a lot older, I hope, so it's best to be prepared. One thing I know, I won't be living in a house with 9 inch stair risers, like I saw on this trip. That's a bit much for me even now.
scone, if I were building now, I'd add the radon equipment right into the new house. If nothing else, it will exhuast your basement air on a regular basis, keeping fresh air flowing down there.
Doc Holiday (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:19 am
Cinco-X, et al
New poll fini
Since you put the poll in the context of the CR reader's viewpoint, I had to go with 2). That said, I think the rest of the economy is still at 1)-
xxxxx
scone, if I were building now, I'd add the radon equipment right into the new house. If nothing else, it will exhuast your basement air on a regular basis, keeping fresh air flowing down there.
Yes, indeedy. Also filtering equipment on the water. Lots of old tanneries and mills around here. And shallow dug wells.
And granite. Lots of granite rock.
I think CR can finally admit this Recession is worse than his personal experience of California in the early 1980s
EconomPic: Number of Hours Worked per Civilian Sees New Low
Oh my, could it be? The FRE/FNM stock pump job can be sheeted back to the desire to keep them listed on the NYSE? Surely that could never happen in an Efficient Market?
Fannie, Freddie Avoid Delisting as Stocks Triple (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
C
/btw, why are they listed at all? Sgd, Confused of Maryland.
I love these numbers!!!!
The U.S. government and the Fed have spent, lent or committed more than $12 trillion in a bid to revive the economy and credit markets. Policy makers said Aug. 12 they would let a $300 billion program to buy long-term Treasuries expire in October, even as they pledged to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an extended period. The benchmark rate is a range of zero to 0.25 percent.
Also: The 10-year yield will climb to 3.76 percent at year-end, according to a Bloomberg survey of banks and securities firms, with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings. Two-year yields will increase to 1.24 percent by year-end, according to the survey.
Then see: Historically, the typical difference between mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield—known as the spread—has been roughly 1½ percentage points. In the mortgage industry, the difference between these two rates is often referred to as a "risk premium."
Then see: Mortgage Rates and the Ten Year Treasury Yield
Then see: 10 year Treasury now @ 3.375% and 30 year avg fixed mortgage @ 5.21% (which indicates what....??.)
If she is just starting college she has plenty of time to figure out what she likes to do.
Taking liberal arts sounds like the right thing to do until she decides what she wants to wake up every morning and enjoy doing.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:22 am
Anybody in your household in a wheelchair? - C
I'm just thinking about the future. Some of my doctors think I have MS or some other nerve disorder.
I'm sorry to hear that; BTW, you might want to think about a more natural diet, like growing your own veggies, etc. Ya' never know-
We're still in the planning phase of our new home (going on 3 years now), and our plan is a 2 story, but with the kid's facilities upstairs so that we can shut it off when they leave and we can live on the 1st floor, laundry and all.
Good luck-
Just a quick thought on Corus...since it has minimal to no retail presence and relatively a small number of locations; the only thing holding up the FDIC has got to be the monstrous proportion of losses on their loan portfolio. Maybe a blinding flash of the obvious...but perhaps the action earlier this week was the intel getting out as to how truly bad the losses are going to be.
Outsider (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:25 am
And granite. Lots of granite rock.
You say that like it's a bad thing-
I have to disagree about the liberal arts route. I'm thinking science and math. Anyone can do liberal arts, you really don't need training for that. Focus on math & science that not everyone can do, esp. without training, and minor in liberal arts if you want personal enrichment classes.
Outsider (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:29 am
I have to disagree about the liberal arts route. I'm thinking science and math. Anyone can do liberal arts, you really don't need training for that. Focus on math & science that not everyone can do, esp. without training, and minor in liberal arts if you want personal enrichment classes.
Agreed-
For radon, granite is bad.
If I could only find a market for my boulders, I'd be rich. If you know of any, let me know.
Yes. She will at least be able to hold a conversation when gets out. Plus, I told her there wasn't going to be any jobs for at least 3 years so you might as well hide out at school since we are paying for it.
Case proven on the lack of critical inquiry faculties these days...
C
I work(ed) in new construction. If I go into a new house that is being built, my sinuses instantly clog up becuase of some chemical in the wood or sheet rock. Once the house is finished , I guess the paint & flooring cover up whatever I am allergic to, and I don't have this problem. Don't know what would happen if I actually lived in one though.
To me, the best type of new construction materail is light weight concrete. It is used a lot in the carribean, and was used in Ireland to build embassys when the IRA bombings were problematic. It's strong, energy efficent, and inexpensive. Sadly it is not used here. A friend of mine who is a builder from Ireland built a 2000 SF beach house in SC made out of light weight concrete. He had a heck of a time with the subs, as the walls are preformed with conduit areas built in for utility lines, but he said the construction costs on the house were only $70K total..
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:26 am
Fannie, Freddie Avoid Delisting
/btw, why are they listed at all? Sgd, Confused of Maryland.
Why not!? They're backstopped by Uncle Sugar!
I'm sorry to hear that; BTW, you might want to think about a more natural diet, like growing your own veggies, etc.- C
Thanks, Cinco, I'm doing the natural/organic diet thing, and I feel a lot better now that I'm on thyroid meds. So the nerve damage may heal itself over time. That's what my present doctor thinks. At any rate, you never know when anyone might need to use a wheelchair, I was in one as a child (unrelated incident). It's not so bad, really, especially the new sport models. But chairs and level changes are a PITA, of course. I think there will be a huge demand as the boomers become geezers.
I'd agree, except that the humanities is the sector of academia where groupthink/intellectual conformism is strongest these days. Speaking as someone who earned a liberal arts undergrad degree...
Counterpointer
The change in volume reeks to me of someone willing to squeeze a few more drops out of this market before it plummets. Everything else is falling back .The best SP500 stocks in August were AIG, Eastman Kodak, MBIA, Citigroup, Genworth Financial, Hartford Financial, Regions Financial, Zions Bancorp, Lexmarket, Apartment Investment & Management Co, Lennar, ... ,
then the Shanghai market yesterday, and gold fever (JP Morgan simply has too much market share for them to not control the pace) It's not DB's DXO closing out leading to a move into gold, and besides what kind of effect would DXO selling all its barrels come Sept 9 cause? Oil to go down which is bad for gold
O H Chick (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:32 am
.....
To me, the best type of new construction materail is light weight concrete. It is used a lot in the carribean, and was used in Ireland to build embassys when the IRA bombings were problematic. It's strong, energy efficent, and inexpensive. Sadly it is not used here. A friend of mine who is a builder from Ireland built a 2000 SF beach house in SC made out of light weight concrete. He had a heck of a time with the subs, as the walls are preformed with conduit areas built in for utility lines, but he said the construction costs on the house were only $70K total..
Point well taken; We're planning to use ICFs in our home.
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
A federal judge ruled the ratings agencies, Moody's Investors Service and McGraw-Hill's Standard & Poor's Ratings Services, must defend a lawsuit over the collapse of a $5.86 billion structured investment vehicle in 2007. The judge threw out 10 of the 11 claims against the companies.
The firms had long argued that their ratings of securities were constitutionally protected opinion. But a federal judge ruled Wednesday that the ratings of certain securities - those that are distributed to a limited number of investors - don't deserve the same free-speech protection as more general ratings of corporate bonds that were widely disseminated.
@ OH Chick - re lightweight concrete - there is a house using the insulated concrete form system going up near where I live in Oregon. It's been featured in Fine Homebuilding, but it's not common, that's for sure. Builders are a conservative lot, on the whole, and don't like the risk in trying new things. They got so burned on EPS in the 80's, just for one example.
As an English major working in the Fin Svc industry I have to agree wholeheartedly. First and foremost - she should develop some "listening" skills.
Being able to communicate effectively, particularly in writing, is an underated skill imo.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 11:35 am
I'm sorry to hear that; BTW, you might want to think about a more natural diet, like growing your own veggies, etc.- C
Thanks, Cinco, I'm doing the natural/organic diet thing, and I feel a lot better now that I'm on thyroid meds. So the nerve damage may heal itself over time.
What's the story on seafood? You're in the right place for Maine lobster, and I think it's high in iodine, and that effects the thyroid. Has your MD said anything about that?
Dude, like, who kneeds, like, riting skillz?
Doc Holiday - mighty bold consensus rates for the 10-year note. Let's see, that would have the yield climb to levels not seen since, ooh, Aug 6-10, June 5-12 and 17-19... Distant past, obviously.
C
Mike in Long Island
If you want to develop listening skills, don't go into a program with good communicators. Go into engineering, learn it in a chalunging (sic) environment
Totally OT but one of the best movie scenes EVER!
YouTube - Blade Runner - TEARS IN RAIN [Hi-Res Video]
Now back to your regularly scheduled
Day-care centers and other facilities responsible for young children should make sure their employees get vaccinated against the seasonal flu and the swine flu to keep facilities open during the upcoming flu season, federal health officials said Friday.
The word should is somewhat confusing....
poverty rate for the elderly..
Hidden pockets of elderly said to be in poverty
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
the reason their pockets are full of lent is because the pigmen of wall street have already reached inside those pockets to take the change...
Counterpointer,
They seem to either be floating in a liquidity trap or walking on quicksand
Doc,
should is a govt. word for "or else"
re: College.
The jobs are in health care now, not the fabled hard sciences that green-corp people are hyping. Maybe someday, if public research is really ramped up. If someone wants a quick job they should do a 2 year degree in one of the health care fields. Otherwise, just study what one is interested in and don't take on debt because the job market is bad in almost every sector.
cinco........
unless you are very young, robust, deaf and full of energy, think single story. Have had split levels, 2, 3 story homes with kids from 3-30. Our perfect choice was single-story, master bedroom separated from rest of life by patio, two-sets of sliders, locked gates and two-walls of R-21 insulation. The kids set off dynamite, play surround sound anything, form heavy-metal rock band, try indoor skeet shooting, lob hand grenades - you can't hear it.
I would be doing a fresh air exchanger in a house in an humid environment- complete with a decent filter and ion system.
But hey, a couple thousand up front in decent air is an invisible investment.
Granite radioactive countertops are such the vogue!
Bring a detector when you shop for granite!
After 10 years or so, the granite is much quieter.
The import stuff from India, China, and especially Brazil can be very hot- that is one cure for bacteria on your counters!
Someday this war's gonna end...
"BTW, in the search to cut cost, some knowledge from older generations has been lost. Ask today's roofers about kick-out flashing, and you have a 50%-50% chance of them returning a blank stare-"
Ask a roofer about flashing, period......It's a bucket of tar, in'it?