How are these numbers better than expected? Accounting for last month's revisions the figures are worse than expected. Plus don't forget the birth death model which miraculously created 118,000 jobs in August. and 673,000 jobs this year.
I don't think the BLS numbers are credible, if one matches the jobless claims from the prior recession to the level of monthly job losses, it shows that 450k jobless claims were producing 200k+ monthly job losses. Now 550k weekly jobless claims are producing the SAME monthly job losses? Makes no sense ...
So 150,000,000 jobs in USA (more or less, I won't quibble) and so far we have lost 5% or 7,500,000.
So someone talk to me like I am a third grader, or maybe a ninth grader. How are we getting a percentage of 9.7% unemployed, or maybe twice that number.
Oh!, maybe it's because there always was about 4% unemployed on their list, so some say 4% is indeed full employment.
So Shadow Stats suggests the real number is about twice the official number.
Let me see, 20% is 30,000,000. Officially it's half that or 15,000,000.
I think most economist have gotten used to looking at the payroll survey even though the household survey turns out to be more accurate in the long run.
This actually makes a lot of sense as employment in the manufacturing sector (large employers declines) and the service sector (small employers increases). Also a bad household survey is actually really bad news since that survey picks up two job families- it would mean that somebody who was working two jobs and shows up as unemployed has actually lost two jobs.
Somebody has already done the monthly chore of pointing to the U6 number for the unemployment rate is 16.8.
The birth/death adjustment has again done its usual stupidity..-they reckon 118,000 jobs were created last month, of which 15,000 were in construction. Fake Jobs (scroll past the2008 numbers to the 2009 ones).
Tipping point? Farther off than you think. The tipping point is not economic, it's emotional. It's still easier to hope that things will get better without abrupt change. Change is only preferable when the status quo is pain.
But when we do reach the tipping point, things will move fast. Very fast.
So how can US economy return to ‘bubble normal’ with all the systemic problems and when
1) the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period
2) Structural unemployment is skyrocketing.
note: “Structural” is a polite way of saying there won’t be any jobs for the long-term unemployed this year, next year, or the year after that.
/Assume Crash Positions (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:06 am replyIgnore userFutures slumping toward Elmo's neighborhood. Dammit. I hate it when the Koolaid runs out this early in the morning. /
Or, futures kermity according to bloomberg, as though futures or market are relevant at this point...it's the uneconomy stupid... /endsnark
have a question.
this is third hand but
a woman is in process of buying new home(8k) and she has 15k in credit card debt that she says she is tacking onto the house.
that is all i know and all the person who told me knows but someone please
tell me how they are going to do it!!!!!!
Bubble economy? Not going to happen, at best we will go back to where it started. The economic level of early 1990 where the first big bubble started. Housing worth, wages and total jobs. Results suck!
Incognitus (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 8:56 am
I don't think the BLS numbers are credible, if one matches the jobless claims from the prior recession to the level of monthly job losses, it shows that 450k jobless claims were producing 200k+ monthly job losses. Now 550k weekly jobless claims are producing the SAME monthly job losses? Makes no sense ...
"So how can US economy return to ‘bubble normal’ with all the systemic problems and when
1) the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period
2) Structural unemployment is skyrocketing.
note: “Structural” is a polite way of saying there won’t be any jobs for the long-term unemployed this year, next year, or the year after that.|
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:12 am
She'd be much better off paying down the 15K in CC debt.
Coffee
Maybe; she "might" be better off storing cash and seeing if she could find a way to "write down" her CC debt. Paying bills seems to be a way of the past-
/snark
"The House" never loses in the long run.
I think all these folks that think they are "getting over on" the system might be in for a rather rude awakening.
not that I disagree with you basic point- but would it not be more honest to compare job creation from low to low or high to high. While no jobs over 10 years sounds nice it does measure job creation from an almost peak to an almost (hopefully) bottom.
The economic shakeout will be huge. We have not seen a thing.
On the services side for example, you are going to get a huge hit in the big box business model over the next decade or 2. There are probably millions of boomers who will look at their finances and say: "Well, I only need 5K per year of extra income (or 10K, or 15K, or 20K) and will not look at their work on a ROI basis but on an annual cash flow basis.
TPTB are holding onto the status quo but our entire economy WILL be going through the wringer whether they want it or not.
What was the 'adverse scenario' UE rate of the stress tests?
Anyone remember?
Calculated Risk: Stress Test, Quarterly Forecasts for Unemployment and GDP
A good question is what are consumer defaults more tied to, housing prices (which are less worse than expected ... no doubt in part to the $8K tax credit frenzy and ultra low rates and government buyout of the MBS market) or jobs (which are worse than expected)?
Easy. Get the home seller to mark the house up 20K over current asking price. After the deal closes - home seller sends home buyer a check for $15k keeping $5k for themselves as a servicing charge.
It involves fraud but then again - so do many things these days.
Supertankers May Halt Oil Trading, Frontline Says (Update2)
Share | Email | Print | A A A
By Alaric Nightingale
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Supertanker owners may start refusing cargoes within the next three months unless rates return to a profitable level, said Frontline Ltd., the biggest operator of the ships which carry almost half the world’s oil.
Ship owners are contributing $703 a day toward fuel costs to ship Middle East crude, according to the London-based Baltic Exchange. Rates have been below operating costs since July. Should the losses persist, some owners may choose to idle their ships, according to Jens Martin Jensen, Singapore-based chief executive officer of Frontline’s management unit.
“If you see another quarter, then I think owners have to do something,” Jensen said by phone today. “We are subsidizing oil companies.”
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut output by 4 percent this year to 28.4 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the same period, the fleet of in-service supertankers has advanced 5.8 percent to 528 ships, according to Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay data on Bloomberg.
The five-member Bloomberg Tanker Index, led by Frontline, dropped 19 percent this year, extending last year’s record 49 percent slump. Frontline rose 3.20 kroner, or 2.5 percent, to 132.70 kroner as of 2:46 p.m. in Oslo, valuing the company at 10.3 billion kroner ($1.7 billion).
Returns for Owners
Returns for owners on eastern and western routes from the Middle East reached this year’s peak of $64,146 a day in January. The vessels need $11,603 a day to pay insurance, crew, repairs and other running costs, according to London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd.
Frontline said its largest carriers needed to earn an average of $31,900 a day to break even in the second quarter, once finance costs were taken into account. They made an average of $38,400, including vessels on longer-term rentals.
Mike in Long Island (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:29 am
Easy. Get the home seller to mark the house up 20K over current asking price. After the deal closes - home seller sends home buyer a check for $15k keeping $5k for themselves as a servicing charge.
Unfortunately, local comparables might kill the deal. Appraisers getting nervous about padding the value of homes; too bad it's 5 years too late to save us-
Bruce in Tennessee (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:27 am
@danm:
And this generation will start much further in the hole than the boomers ever did:
Student Debt Grows Dramatically - WSJ.com
Students Borrow More Than Ever for College
Heavy Debt Loads Mean Many Young People Can't Live Life They Expected
...Now there are 3 things certain in life: Death, taxes, and student debt forever...
My son should finish college in 2 years with zero debt. Now if I could only convince my daughter to come to her senses.
mike in long island
thats how they do it that's the only way? dont think that is a very good idea, fraud etc wonder how many others were done like that?
thanks
Who has made the forecast about 230K job losses ?
Tha same GENIUS that has not foreseen this financial turmoil ?
Have I to be happy that 216K people have lost their job, because this number is lower than the forecast ?
No, thanks. I'm not crazy.
I think that in the next days I will go to my bank to withdraw all my money.
I think this is the only way to FORCE the regulators to take real actions against the banks/bankers and to really fight the crisis.
This seems like a perfect time to note this quote from News from 1930
"Prof. C. Persons quit job in Census Bureau because higher official decided to exclude from count of unemployed those laid off with “promise of reemployment at some indefinite future time”; Prof. Persons estimates there are 5M unemployed, contradicting census estimate of 2M-3M."
Of course it's fraud. The mortgage company is being defrauded for sure - but since the loan is likely insured by FRE, FNM or FHA it's all good since, well, ya know it's not like we will end up paying for that fraud in the end or anything.
Cinco-X - in Cali $20k is probably a rounding error so appraisers might not even flinch.
Here's an example - house next to me foreclosed. Bank sold it to some realtors/flippers for $369k. 4 months later after maybe $20 to $30k in paint, sod, appliances the house was sold for $465k.
What price was the house worth? Do you think the appraiser even considered the sales price from 4 months prior? Did the phucking mortgage bank consider the sale to the flippers - I mean it was only like $100k less??
Anyway - you asked and I responded with how I thought it might be done. I am not a realtor - I am not a mortgage broker so it's likely that there are many more creative ways to accomplish what the women you spoke of is trying to do.
giorgiob75 (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:36 am
I think that in the next days I will go to my bank to withdraw all my money.
I think this is the only way to FORCE the regulators to take real actions against the banks/bankers and to really fight the crisis.
Although it has since been forgotten- but old fashioned lending used to consist of "two ways out". The first way was income and the second was the underlying collateral. Back when I first started out as lending officer banks knew that relying on collateral was not a good way of getting the loan repaid. It appears they are about to learn that lesson all over again.
mike in long island
thank you for responding we were just trying to figure out how she could do it, fraud didnt come to mind. naive of us, i guess.
crookes and liars and that isnt a plug either
Bruce in Tennessee (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:27 am
@danm:
And this generation will start much further in the hole than the boomers ever did:
Student Debt Grows Dramatically - WSJ.com
Students Borrow More Than Ever for College
Heavy Debt Loads Mean Many Young People Can't Live Life They Expected
...Now there are 3 things certain in life: Death, taxes, and student debt forever...
My son should finish college in 2 years with zero debt. Now if I could only convince my daughter to come to her senses.
I must be weird but I am more concerned about the boomers than the younger generation.
Wealth is all relative so if all the young are poor, they can still find happiness. As for ageing, relativity is not an issue if you are dependant.
My MIL and nanny both went to their doctors (mid 30s) and got flushed when they complained about the diagnosis and the prescriptions.
The reality is that boomers will try to squeeze the younger generation but the latter will run away. We are going from 5 workers per dependant to 2 workers per dependant. The young ones will have clout in many areas.
Another fact is that most of the boomers wealth is tied up in their house. If the young ones are overloaded with debt, house prices will need to come down if the boomers want to touch their equity.
Crazyv: “It appears they are about to learn that lesson all over again.”
So true. In the 80’s I was out of work for a summer and had the luxury of perusing 100 years of the local rag at the library. People don’t change, technology does and people just keep doing the same stuff.
We learn the hard way over and over until we forget.
giorgiob75 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:47 am
Sorry, I'm not American and my english is not perfect...what means "You must be loaded" ?
Obviously you can be my friend ! Smile you're welcome !!!
"Loaded" in this context is an idiom for rich or wealthy. I was joking with you since you seemed to indicate that removing all of your money would result in a run on banks resulting in systemic failure. You'd have to have a lot of money to do that by yourself. I suspect that you meant that if everyone did it it would force governments to address the real underlying problem, and I was just teasing you. We can still be friends, however-
I have always thought of the US economy as an aircraft taking off- it must attain some level of velocity or it will simply stall. It is for that reason that I think the idea of 'getting bad more slowly" just doesn't work . I think Americans are a naturally optimistic lot and will hold out through adversity but even they will give up at some point. I think our national character demands a "V" recession even if the bottom is deeper than a theoretical shallower recession. Once the true green shoots takeover the animal spirits will propel it back- 1919-1921 is an illustrative period- production and price falls were as much as the GD1 but we don't hear much of it because it was followed by the roaring 20's not the lost decade.
"Courtade said that while the cuts were unavoidable, they don't speak to specific troubles at the publisher (which is distributed by Workman), but are, as with so many things, a product of the economic times. "Our sales are good this year, but in this economic climate we just needed to trim expenses and overhead."
Gabyjan, I thought the banks stopped that sort of thing a year and a half ago. If
they are still being deceived then I dunna, what's worse than all hope for banker
competency lost?
And oh, yeah, if the property doesn't appraise out, it's fraud. In fact, if you don't tell
the bank what is going on, its fraud.. Where was this woman going to do this?
Hi Cinco-X, in the meanwhile I've checked my dictionary and I've understand the sense of your sentence.
Obviously I meant that if everyone did it it would force governments to address the real underlying problem.
Fed's Yellen: Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Community Banks | Hoocoodanode?
'My bet is that if UE stabilizes, markets drop in late Oct. If national UE goes to 9.8 to 10 by Sept, Elmo! makes an early appearance.
If I was smart, I'd do the correlations and include a variable for CA UE. For now it's a straight over/under.'
not far off... so we rally to Oct I guess?
Mike I read that contract. what did you want me to comment on?
The thing that concerns me as this submarine approaches crush depth is the failure to understand that there are levels of unemployment that are not maintainable. IMO 10% is one such level. Actually U-3 is meaningless. What matters is U-6 and 16.5%. The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering. This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
But can someone justify the disconnect between weekly jobless claims and monthly job losses? Not only do the numbers make no sense when compared to the last recession, they make no sense when compared to themselves.
I mean, the drop from the top in weekly jobless claims was, like 100k at best. Yet monthly job losses went from 600k+ to near 200k. What does that mean? Does it means that if weekly job losses fall "as high" as 500k, then monthly job losses get to zero?
The previous recession did NOT get to 500k weekly jobless claims, does this mean we now can handle another 100k+ jobless claims per week and not lose jobs?
Thanks DJ,
I was interested in whether the STEP increases sounded reasonable, coupled with the annual increases. Sorry I should have been more specific.
lawyer liz
as i said it is third hand but i think she is in fl
i really dont think she is knowledgable to think this up by herself but i dont know.
i zeroed in on the 15k because i thought she meant like the 8k and i told the party that told me that the 15k wasnt available. thats when she said credit card debt on the house, and its been ticklling me ever since.
I don't really understand what we are supposed to be doing. Of food, clothing, and shelter, the last boom took care of our sheltering needs for a long time. We aren't short on clothing either, which leaves food as the only thing we have to take care of. So where is the 'economy' going to come from? I think this forum also proves that most people are content to sit around and gossip all day. How does the government monetize that?
My wife likes watching HGTV. Espically the "House Hunters" series. I like looking at them because they remind me the old nuclear war movies.
Like the one last night. A real estate developer. in Florida is looking for a new house. His son is the real estate agent showing them the different houses. This was 2 years ago probably. Big huge houses, trophy wife, and a Hummer. Grandkids and beautiful views of the water.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:56 am
The thing that concerns me as this submarine approaches crush depth is the failure to understand that there are levels of unemployment that are not maintainable. IMO 10% is one such level. Actually U-3 is meaningless. What matters is U-6 and 16.5%. The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering. This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
There's presently economic activity in filling pipelines for presumed Xmas sales (for the consumer driven portion of the economy). If that turns out to be a bust, I sense that late Nov. and Dec. could be really bad months for employment, despite temporary jobs in retail. Companies won't be taking a "wait and see" approach, but rather will be cutting fast and hard to compensate for capital tied up in inventory. I do think we'll have to wait and see how Xmas sales are going to be before we know how bad it will be-
Here's a story about local govt's getting whacked with increased contributions into the State pension funds. Another " we didn't see this coming" . Hoocoodanode the stock market performance last year would cause losses in the fund that would have to be made up elsewhere - like higher taxes.
Nuke if you are out there you may want to pour a shot of sambuca into your coffee -throw the coffee away and down what's left in the bottle before reading this.
"Contribution rates will average 11.9 percent in February 2011 for the Employees' Retirement System, up from 7.4 percent next year. The rate will be 18.2 percent for the Police and Fire Retirement System, up from 15.1 percent in 2010.
Not in this article but elsewhere it is estimated that this will cause an increase in property taxes in the neighborhood of 10%.
From a 2005 NY Fed report (most recent stats I could find), 3.4 million jobs were lost here due to offshoring between 1997 and 2003. As we know, this has been a cumulative and on going process that encompassed many years before 1997, as well asf the years after 2003.
I think this is a root cause of our economic problems. The Fed in their Orwellian illogic did not however, stating "A new measure of the jobs gained and lost in international trade flows suggests that the net number of U.S. jobs lost is relatively small—2.4 percent of total U.S. employment as of 2003."
I can't speak for others- I plan my trades I know my entry and exit levels and I find that the hardest thing for me personally is patiently waiting for those points. In our super charged world the temptation to "do something" is incredibly strong. So l by distracting me from the tic moves in the market for me being on this forum along with my other interests is wonderful since it allows me to be patient.
As to your broader question I not sure I understand it in the context of my observation. Although I would say that I think people have need for much more than "food, clothing and shelter". I can think of many many things that make life worth living that go beyond those categories. Food itself is such a broad category- clothing maybe not so much but that may just be my sartorial taste.
do these guys even read what they write. In other words no big deal between a 5% unemployment rate and 7.4% unemployment rate? As I recall that kind of move has precipitated all sorts Fed moves!
Productive work and taxes are for the little people. Capital gains, debt default and stimulus/fed arbitrage are the new paths to wealth.
UNO?
again some downward revisions on June and July , as usual !
How are these numbers better than expected? Accounting for last month's revisions the figures are worse than expected. Plus don't forget the birth death model which miraculously created 118,000 jobs in August. and 673,000 jobs this year.
But we're going to V shape from here, right?
please dont forget that our gov will be adding jobs this year. census, fdic, etc
that ought to make A Recovery!
the recovery is just around the corner like always.....
keeps walking around the corner
walking around the corner and smacking into low-hanging objects...
C
And the misinformation "smaller-than-forecast" becomes embedded:
U.S. Stocks Advance, Paring Weekly Decline for S&P 500 Index - Bloomberg.com
Check out the big move in U-6! Jumped up to 16.8% from 16.3% in July!
Like Bernanke keeps saying - We have to further devastate the middle class in order to save Wall St.
And don't forget this Bernanke gem - if your neighbor's house is on fire you should let me spread the fire to your entire neighborhood.
Bernanke is insane.
I don't think the BLS numbers are credible, if one matches the jobless claims from the prior recession to the level of monthly job losses, it shows that 450k jobless claims were producing 200k+ monthly job losses. Now 550k weekly jobless claims are producing the SAME monthly job losses? Makes no sense ...
c
lol
So 150,000,000 jobs in USA (more or less, I won't quibble) and so far we have lost 5% or 7,500,000.
So someone talk to me like I am a third grader, or maybe a ninth grader. How are we getting a percentage of 9.7% unemployed, or maybe twice that number.
Oh!, maybe it's because there always was about 4% unemployed on their list, so some say 4% is indeed full employment.
So Shadow Stats suggests the real number is about twice the official number.
Let me see, 20% is 30,000,000. Officially it's half that or 15,000,000.
And headed for another year of net job losses.
Where is the tipping point?
it cant tip over they are holding it up but getting tired and calling for more help holding it up
I think most economist have gotten used to looking at the payroll survey even though the household survey turns out to be more accurate in the long run.
This actually makes a lot of sense as employment in the manufacturing sector (large employers declines) and the service sector (small employers increases). Also a bad household survey is actually really bad news since that survey picks up two job families- it would mean that somebody who was working two jobs and shows up as unemployed has actually lost two jobs.
Payrolls: Actual 216K, consensus -230K, prior -276K (revised from -247K)
Briefing.com: Bond Market Update
Somebody has already done the monthly chore of pointing to the U6 number for the unemployment rate is 16.8.
The birth/death adjustment has again done its usual stupidity..-they reckon 118,000 jobs were created last month, of which 15,000 were in construction.
(scroll past the2008 numbers to the 2009 ones).
Fake Jobs
-K
I only regret that I have but one job to give my Federal Reserve.
Tipping point? Farther off than you think. The tipping point is not economic, it's emotional. It's still easier to hope that things will get better without abrupt change. Change is only preferable when the status quo is pain.
But when we do reach the tipping point, things will move fast. Very fast.
So how can US economy return to ‘bubble normal’ with all the systemic problems and when
1) the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period
2) Structural unemployment is skyrocketing.
note: “Structural” is a polite way of saying there won’t be any jobs for the long-term unemployed this year, next year, or the year after that.
"So how can US economy return to ‘bubble normal’ "
Obviously we can't......but we can still destroy ourselves trying.....
Futures slumping toward Elmo's neighborhood. Dammit. I hate it when the Koolaid runs out this early in the morning.
sporkfed (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 8:48 am
UNO?
NO
the unemployed should apply for census and fdic jobs both are temp but with fdic it might be a long temp.
What was the 'adverse scenario' UE rate of the stress tests?
Anyone remember?
I need
/Assume Crash Positions (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:06 am replyIgnore userFutures slumping toward Elmo's neighborhood. Dammit. I hate it when the Koolaid runs out this early in the morning. /
Or, futures kermity according to bloomberg, as though futures or market are relevant at this point...it's the uneconomy stupid... /endsnark
have a question.
this is third hand but
a woman is in process of buying new home(8k) and she has 15k in credit card debt that she says she is tacking onto the house.
that is all i know and all the person who told me knows but someone please
tell me how they are going to do it!!!!!!
Is frightening the new "normal"?
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: How Overpriced Is The S&P 500?
The only good thing is these stats seem to lag the economy as a whole, at least in past recessions
Black Star Ranch --
Thanks for the flattery! Always glad to read your posts as well.
She'd be much better off paying down the 15K in CC debt.
HomeGnome,
But she can't do that without the help of the 8k tax credit.... errrrrrrr
Bubble economy? Not going to happen, at best we will go back to where it started. The economic level of early 1990 where the first big bubble started. Housing worth, wages and total jobs. Results suck!
Bob Dobbs,
I'd say the -tipping point at this rate is still 2-5 years out. Took 9 years to get from 1928 to the rescuttling of the economy at 1937.
Incognitus (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 8:56 am
I don't think the BLS numbers are credible, if one matches the jobless claims from the prior recession to the level of monthly job losses, it shows that 450k jobless claims were producing 200k+ monthly job losses. Now 550k weekly jobless claims are producing the SAME monthly job losses? Makes no sense ...
It's "different" this time-
"So how can US economy return to ‘bubble normal’ with all the systemic problems and when
1) the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period
2) Structural unemployment is skyrocketing.
note: “Structural” is a polite way of saying there won’t be any jobs for the long-term unemployed this year, next year, or the year after that.|
Do what I did....give up and move to Asia.
Ponz-eCONomy.
What was the 'adverse scenario' UE rate of the stress tests?
Anyone remember?
Calculated Risk: Stress Test, Quarterly Forecasts for Unemployment and GDP
homegnome
she paid it down 7k and i guess that she is tired of paying it but they can do that tack it onto the house?
Nothing to see here.
Move along or you WILL be arrested!
but but homegnome
its bff, and i cant be arrested on bff!!!!!
thanks dum luk.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:12 am
She'd be much better off paying down the 15K in CC debt.
Coffee
Maybe; she "might" be better off storing cash and seeing if she could find a way to "write down" her CC debt. Paying bills seems to be a way of the past-
/snark
Birth/Death model for job creation, mark-to-model for asset valuation, and Ben can print money to fund Treasury. What an economy!
"The House" never loses in the long run.
I think all these folks that think they are "getting over on" the system might be in for a rather rude awakening.
But what do I know; I'm just some blog poster.
Alright,
You can be "tazed" and pepper sprayed then.
Beats the old rubber hose treatment.
spending up
joblessness up
what a perfect combination
i love to pay my bills it feels so good.
not that I disagree with you basic point- but would it not be more honest to compare job creation from low to low or high to high. While no jobs over 10 years sounds nice it does measure job creation from an almost peak to an almost (hopefully) bottom.
homegnome
no i dont want that either
The economic shakeout will be huge. We have not seen a thing.
On the services side for example, you are going to get a huge hit in the big box business model over the next decade or 2. There are probably millions of boomers who will look at their finances and say: "Well, I only need 5K per year of extra income (or 10K, or 15K, or 20K) and will not look at their work on a ROI basis but on an annual cash flow basis.
TPTB are holding onto the status quo but our entire economy WILL be going through the wringer whether they want it or not.
the house never looses
until the guys from oceans 11 step thru the door
homegnome
just face it you couldnt please me if you hung me with a new rope
Guess this news was all priced into the market.
Wall St. was built using slave labor.
My how times have changed!
---gabyjan.
Good one.
mock turtle (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:20 am
spending up
joblessness up
You've just entered....(pause for effect)........."The Twilight Zone"
YouTube - Twilight Zone intro.
thank you homegnome
FYI, the birth/death model has created 364,000 leisure and hospitality jobs this year.
As much as I'd love to hang out here and amaze everyone with my witty and insightful blog posts; Mrs. Gnome has a "honey do" list for me today.
1 Premium BFF Poll is open until 5:58EST today.
Have Fun everyone.
I'll check in later.
"Wash and Wax the
"
WTF!?!
What was the 'adverse scenario' UE rate of the stress tests?
Anyone remember?
Calculated Risk: Stress Test, Quarterly Forecasts for Unemployment and GDP
A good question is what are consumer defaults more tied to, housing prices (which are less worse than expected ... no doubt in part to the $8K tax credit frenzy and ultra low rates and government buyout of the MBS market) or jobs (which are worse than expected)?
@danm:
And this generation will start much further in the hole than the boomers ever did:
Student Debt Grows Dramatically - WSJ.com
Students Borrow More Than Ever for College
Heavy Debt Loads Mean Many Young People Can't Live Life They Expected
...Now there are 3 things certain in life: Death, taxes, and student debt forever...
FYI, the birth/death model has created 364,000 leisure and hospitality jobs this year.
I wonder if their model includes the closure of the Hitlon hotels.
leisure and hospitality jobs..
are these other terms for unemploymet
Easy. Get the home seller to mark the house up 20K over current asking price. After the deal closes - home seller sends home buyer a check for $15k keeping $5k for themselves as a servicing charge.
It involves fraud but then again - so do many things these days.
This graph from Mish puts the situation with BOA and Citi really into perspective:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SpjEOPqFWaI/AAAAAAAAGwI/DtBsIhobNww/s1600-h/problem+bank+assets.png
Too big to fail is too big to exist- period!
BTW, the left column is in $Trillions
Supertankers May Halt Oil Trading, Frontline Says (Update2)
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By Alaric Nightingale
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Supertanker owners may start refusing cargoes within the next three months unless rates return to a profitable level, said Frontline Ltd., the biggest operator of the ships which carry almost half the world’s oil.
Ship owners are contributing $703 a day toward fuel costs to ship Middle East crude, according to the London-based Baltic Exchange. Rates have been below operating costs since July. Should the losses persist, some owners may choose to idle their ships, according to Jens Martin Jensen, Singapore-based chief executive officer of Frontline’s management unit.
“If you see another quarter, then I think owners have to do something,” Jensen said by phone today. “We are subsidizing oil companies.”
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut output by 4 percent this year to 28.4 million barrels a day, according to Bloomberg estimates. Over the same period, the fleet of in-service supertankers has advanced 5.8 percent to 528 ships, according to Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay data on Bloomberg.
The five-member Bloomberg Tanker Index, led by Frontline, dropped 19 percent this year, extending last year’s record 49 percent slump. Frontline rose 3.20 kroner, or 2.5 percent, to 132.70 kroner as of 2:46 p.m. in Oslo, valuing the company at 10.3 billion kroner ($1.7 billion).
Returns for Owners
Returns for owners on eastern and western routes from the Middle East reached this year’s peak of $64,146 a day in January. The vessels need $11,603 a day to pay insurance, crew, repairs and other running costs, according to London-based Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd.
Frontline said its largest carriers needed to earn an average of $31,900 a day to break even in the second quarter, once finance costs were taken into account. They made an average of $38,400, including vessels on longer-term rentals.
Mike in Long Island (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:29 am
Easy. Get the home seller to mark the house up 20K over current asking price. After the deal closes - home seller sends home buyer a check for $15k keeping $5k for themselves as a servicing charge.
Unfortunately, local comparables might kill the deal. Appraisers getting nervous about padding the value of homes; too bad it's 5 years too late to save us-
RATM wrote:
FYI, the birth/death model has created 364,000 leisure and hospitality jobs this year.
I guess that makes sense. People lose their jobs and get into the prostitution biz?
Bruce in Tennessee (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:27 am
@danm:
And this generation will start much further in the hole than the boomers ever did:
Student Debt Grows Dramatically - WSJ.com
Students Borrow More Than Ever for College
Heavy Debt Loads Mean Many Young People Can't Live Life They Expected
...Now there are 3 things certain in life: Death, taxes, and student debt forever...
My son should finish college in 2 years with zero debt. Now if I could only convince my daughter to come to her senses.
mike in long island
thats how they do it that's the only way? dont think that is a very good idea, fraud etc wonder how many others were done like that?
thanks
the only way you can get out of a student loan is either pay it off or die.
Who has made the forecast about 230K job losses ?
Tha same GENIUS that has not foreseen this financial turmoil ?
Have I to be happy that 216K people have lost their job, because this number is lower than the forecast ?
No, thanks. I'm not crazy.
I think that in the next days I will go to my bank to withdraw all my money.
I think this is the only way to FORCE the regulators to take real actions against the banks/bankers and to really fight the crisis.
Byzantine_Ruins,
I guess they would rather go out of business....
Let me guess, a year ago Frontline was ~ 250 kroner?
gabyjan (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 6:35 am
the only way you can get out of a student loan is either pay it off or die.
Buy a condo. HELOC. Pay off student loans. Walk.
This seems like a perfect time to note this quote from News from 1930
"Prof. C. Persons quit job in Census Bureau because higher official decided to exclude from count of unemployed those laid off with “promise of reemployment at some indefinite future time”; Prof. Persons estimates there are 5M unemployed, contradicting census estimate of 2M-3M."
Of course it's fraud. The mortgage company is being defrauded for sure - but since the loan is likely insured by FRE, FNM or FHA it's all good since, well, ya know it's not like we will end up paying for that fraud in the end or anything.
Cinco-X - in Cali $20k is probably a rounding error so appraisers might not even flinch.
Here's an example - house next to me foreclosed. Bank sold it to some realtors/flippers for $369k. 4 months later after maybe $20 to $30k in paint, sod, appliances the house was sold for $465k.
What price was the house worth? Do you think the appraiser even considered the sales price from 4 months prior? Did the phucking mortgage bank consider the sale to the flippers - I mean it was only like $100k less??
Anyway - you asked and I responded with how I thought it might be done. I am not a realtor - I am not a mortgage broker so it's likely that there are many more creative ways to accomplish what the women you spoke of is trying to do.
giorgiob75 (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:36 am
I think that in the next days I will go to my bank to withdraw all my money.
I think this is the only way to FORCE the regulators to take real actions against the banks/bankers and to really fight the crisis.
You must be loaded; can I be your friend?
"the only way you can get out of a student loan is either pay it off or die."
Or move out of the country.
Actually I'm paying mine off. Faster than I thought, too.
not even close- its all about jobs.
Although it has since been forgotten- but old fashioned lending used to consist of "two ways out". The first way was income and the second was the underlying collateral. Back when I first started out as lending officer banks knew that relying on collateral was not a good way of getting the loan repaid. It appears they are about to learn that lesson all over again.
Obviously you can be my friend !
you're welcome !!!...but I'm not so rich as you could imagine!!! 
I was fortunate. Student Loans: $4000 Interest Rate: 3% Monthly Payment: $38.62 All Paid Off: Priceless
But NPR sez it's getting worse more slowly, hence we should be guardedly optomistic.
Snort.
mike in long island
thank you for responding we were just trying to figure out how she could do it, fraud didnt come to mind. naive of us, i guess.
crookes and liars and that isnt a plug either
im sorry but getting worse more slowly is like being a little bit pregnant.cant be done
Bruce in Tennessee (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:27 am
@danm:
And this generation will start much further in the hole than the boomers ever did:
Student Debt Grows Dramatically - WSJ.com
Students Borrow More Than Ever for College
Heavy Debt Loads Mean Many Young People Can't Live Life They Expected
...Now there are 3 things certain in life: Death, taxes, and student debt forever...
My son should finish college in 2 years with zero debt. Now if I could only convince my daughter to come to her senses.
I must be weird but I am more concerned about the boomers than the younger generation.
Wealth is all relative so if all the young are poor, they can still find happiness. As for ageing, relativity is not an issue if you are dependant.
My MIL and nanny both went to their doctors (mid 30s) and got flushed when they complained about the diagnosis and the prescriptions.
The reality is that boomers will try to squeeze the younger generation but the latter will run away. We are going from 5 workers per dependant to 2 workers per dependant. The young ones will have clout in many areas.
Another fact is that most of the boomers wealth is tied up in their house. If the young ones are overloaded with debt, house prices will need to come down if the boomers want to touch their equity.
Crazyv: “It appears they are about to learn that lesson all over again.”
So true. In the 80’s I was out of work for a summer and had the luxury of perusing 100 years of the local rag at the library. People don’t change, technology does and people just keep doing the same stuff.
We learn the hard way over and over until we forget.
giorgiob75 (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:47 am
Sorry, I'm not American and my english is not perfect...what means "You must be loaded" ?
Obviously you can be my friend ! Smile you're welcome !!!
"Loaded" in this context is an idiom for rich or wealthy. I was joking with you since you seemed to indicate that removing all of your money would result in a run on banks resulting in systemic failure. You'd have to have a lot of money to do that by yourself. I suspect that you meant that if everyone did it it would force governments to address the real underlying problem, and I was just teasing you. We can still be friends, however-
where are you from giorgio?
I have always thought of the US economy as an aircraft taking off- it must attain some level of velocity or it will simply stall. It is for that reason that I think the idea of 'getting bad more slowly" just doesn't work . I think Americans are a naturally optimistic lot and will hold out through adversity but even they will give up at some point. I think our national character demands a "V" recession even if the bottom is deeper than a theoretical shallower recession. Once the true green shoots takeover the animal spirits will propel it back- 1919-1921 is an illustrative period- production and price falls were as much as the GD1 but we don't hear much of it because it was followed by the roaring 20's not the lost decade.
I like this. It is so American.
"Courtade said that while the cuts were unavoidable, they don't speak to specific troubles at the publisher (which is distributed by Workman), but are, as with so many things, a product of the economic times. "Our sales are good this year, but in this economic climate we just needed to trim expenses and overhead."
Gabyjan, I thought the banks stopped that sort of thing a year and a half ago. If
they are still being deceived then I dunna, what's worse than all hope for banker
competency lost?
And oh, yeah, if the property doesn't appraise out, it's fraud. In fact, if you don't tell
the bank what is going on, its fraud.. Where was this woman going to do this?
Hi Cinco-X, in the meanwhile I've checked my dictionary and I've understand the sense of your sentence.
Obviously I meant that if everyone did it it would force governments to address the real underlying problem.
Ok, we're friends
Fed's Yellen: Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Community Banks | Hoocoodanode?
'My bet is that if UE stabilizes, markets drop in late Oct. If national UE goes to 9.8 to 10 by Sept, Elmo! makes an early appearance.
If I was smart, I'd do the correlations and include a variable for CA UE. For now it's a straight over/under.'
not far off... so we rally to Oct I guess?
Mike I read that contract. what did you want me to comment on?
oh and morning to the collective commentariat
Italy.
US 10-year note spiked to 3.4 at 08:30, now reined in to yesterday's trading day close on 3.34
VIXy down 2.5%
C
The thing that concerns me as this submarine approaches crush depth is the failure to understand that there are levels of unemployment that are not maintainable. IMO 10% is one such level. Actually U-3 is meaningless. What matters is U-6 and 16.5%. The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering. This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
im sorry but getting worse more slowly is like being a little bit pregnant.cant be done
Oh, gimme a break. Yes, it's spin, but it's also true.
C'mon.... everyone here in Dec/Jan/Feb was touting "it's getting worse faster!!!!". How is that different?
But can someone justify the disconnect between weekly jobless claims and monthly job losses? Not only do the numbers make no sense when compared to the last recession, they make no sense when compared to themselves.
I mean, the drop from the top in weekly jobless claims was, like 100k at best. Yet monthly job losses went from 600k+ to near 200k. What does that mean? Does it means that if weekly job losses fall "as high" as 500k, then monthly job losses get to zero?
The previous recession did NOT get to 500k weekly jobless claims, does this mean we now can handle another 100k+ jobless claims per week and not lose jobs?
Something is fishy here.
What exactly would get those jobs?
Shovels ready?
Chamber of Commerce screaming about proving that the employees are legal.
Hmmm.
Thanks DJ,
I was interested in whether the STEP increases sounded reasonable, coupled with the annual increases. Sorry I should have been more specific.
Back to werk.
lawyer liz
as i said it is third hand but i think she is in fl
i really dont think she is knowledgable to think this up by herself but i dont know.
i zeroed in on the 15k because i thought she meant like the 8k and i told the party that told me that the 15k wasnt available. thats when she said credit card debt on the house, and its been ticklling me ever since.
crazyv,
I don't really understand what we are supposed to be doing. Of food, clothing, and shelter, the last boom took care of our sheltering needs for a long time. We aren't short on clothing either, which leaves food as the only thing we have to take care of. So where is the 'economy' going to come from? I think this forum also proves that most people are content to sit around and gossip all day. How does the government monetize that?
Bruce in Tennessee (profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:27 am
I must be weird but I am more concerned about the boomers than the younger generation.
Wealth is all relative so if all the young are poor, they can still find happiness. As for ageing, relativity is not an issue if you are dependant.
Well, yes. You don't fight demographics, except in the very short-term.
ratm
they come here for ideas cause they know not what to do.
/snark
My wife likes watching HGTV. Espically the "House Hunters" series. I like looking at them because they remind me the old nuclear war movies.
Like the one last night. A real estate developer. in Florida is looking for a new house. His son is the real estate agent showing them the different houses. This was 2 years ago probably. Big huge houses, trophy wife, and a Hummer. Grandkids and beautiful views of the water.
Then the bomb drops....
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 9/4/2009 - 9:56 am
The thing that concerns me as this submarine approaches crush depth is the failure to understand that there are levels of unemployment that are not maintainable. IMO 10% is one such level. Actually U-3 is meaningless. What matters is U-6 and 16.5%. The drag on the economy of those levels of unemployment prevents the economy from recovering. This is one of the few things the administration has in proper perspective. They are right to be desperate about real jobs. If we can't get below 12% real quickly then we are likely to pop straight to 20% in short order. Crush depth.
There's presently economic activity in filling pipelines for presumed Xmas sales (for the consumer driven portion of the economy). If that turns out to be a bust, I sense that late Nov. and Dec. could be really bad months for employment, despite temporary jobs in retail. Companies won't be taking a "wait and see" approach, but rather will be cutting fast and hard to compensate for capital tied up in inventory. I do think we'll have to wait and see how Xmas sales are going to be before we know how bad it will be-
Here's a story about local govt's getting whacked with increased contributions into the State pension funds. Another " we didn't see this coming" . Hoocoodanode the stock market performance last year would cause losses in the fund that would have to be made up elsewhere - like higher taxes.
Nuke if you are out there you may want to pour a shot of sambuca into your coffee -throw the coffee away and down what's left in the bottle before reading this.
Governments to pay more into Common Retirement Fund
"Contribution rates will average 11.9 percent in February 2011 for the Employees' Retirement System, up from 7.4 percent next year. The rate will be 18.2 percent for the Police and Fire Retirement System, up from 15.1 percent in 2010.
Not in this article but elsewhere it is estimated that this will cause an increase in property taxes in the neighborhood of 10%.
Who says there's no inflation!!
Oh, come on, no ones drunk on cheap rum this morning, its all to make you an I feel better. With out a good does of hope, we be doing what?
Bruce, I'm a boomer, we are OK. If you don't have it, make do.
From a 2005 NY Fed report (most recent stats I could find), 3.4 million jobs were lost here due to offshoring between 1997 and 2003. As we know, this has been a cumulative and on going process that encompassed many years before 1997, as well asf the years after 2003.
I think this is a root cause of our economic problems. The Fed in their Orwellian illogic did not however, stating "A new measure of the jobs gained and lost in international trade flows suggests that the net number of U.S. jobs lost is relatively small—2.4 percent of total U.S. employment as of 2003."
http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci 11-8/ci 11-8.html
U.S. Jobs Gained and LOst through Trade: A Net Measure- Federal Reserve Bank of New York
With out a good does of hope, we be doing what?
Eating better, exercising, treating those around us better and saving?
I can't speak for others- I plan my trades I know my entry and exit levels and I find that the hardest thing for me personally is patiently waiting for those points. In our super charged world the temptation to "do something" is incredibly strong. So l by distracting me from the tic moves in the market for me being on this forum along with my other interests is wonderful since it allows me to be patient.
As to your broader question I not sure I understand it in the context of my observation. Although I would say that I think people have need for much more than "food, clothing and shelter". I can think of many many things that make life worth living that go beyond those categories. Food itself is such a broad category- clothing maybe not so much but that may just be my sartorial taste.
do these guys even read what they write. In other words no big deal between a 5% unemployment rate and 7.4% unemployment rate? As I recall that kind of move has precipitated all sorts Fed moves!
Any way one looks at it, the economy is still losing a lot of jobs, and the unemployment rate is high if not very much so.
I recently wrote a series of blog posts on "Why Companies Aren't Hiring" which can be found here:
"Why Aren't Companies Hiring?" | EconomicGreenfield