Isn't that why they call it "junk"?

If bernanke buys it will it be called junk in the trunk?

Only a Trillion more in downgrades this year.

le bonde junque?

what ya gonna do with all that junk. all that junk inside your trunk...

13.9 - 18% defaults is pretty wide guess...
Did they stress test for this?

pigged from previous thread

Unless India and China are part of the compact we are screwed and therefore although I believe in climate change I think the US not being part of Kyoto was the right thing. I do think that it is appropriate for us to "bend the curve" and make a down payment for binding commitments by India and China- but that was not Kyoto.

Frankly, we are in a far better position than they are to withstand the effects of climate change and that should have been our bargaining tool. Sort of the Mutually assured destruction model of the cold war. Unfortunately we played hard ball not because we wanted concessions from India and China but rather because the previous administration didn't believe in climate change. This administration believes in climate change but isn't willing to play hard ball- they opposed language in the climate bill that would allow for sanctions on high emissions countries as violating "free trade"!!!!

I don't believe that India/China will be able to make the necessary GHG cuts- like some Greek tragedy we are heading towards an inevitable bust up. The IPCC recommendations are consensus forecasts- they exclude those who think it is going to be a lot worse and those think it is a non issue. If the financial crisis has taught us one thing it is that the consensus is usually wrong. Therefore whatever GHG reduction steps we take will either be too little or unnecessary. Either way they are a waste of money.

I think we should be planning on figuring out how to survive climate change rather than wasting all this effort trying to prevent it. know that in Vermont one of their emergency planning scenarios is reverse migration- as people leave Florida and the South west. Who knows climate change might be Detroit's salvation. Being close to a big body of fresh water could turn out to be very valuable.

When pressed to give Tom Keene one market recommendation about a month or so ago, Nouriel Roubini said he would short high yield corporate debt.

How many zeros in a quadrillion?

"and could reach as high as 18 percent if economic conditions are worse than expected ...."

Ha, Ha! "worse than expected," don't be silly, everthing's fine, now!

Avi Dao,

I agree with your assessment. Certainly there is no perfect system, so one has to set a narrow range of goals and then seek a system that will best achieve those narrow goals, while other goals will have to be either set aside or achieved with lesser results.

steelhead: 15

Avl Dao (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/3/2009 - 8:22 pm

U'll get better results by confronting change within the people (victims ??) themselves who need to change.

You'll never get anywhere exhorting large masses of people they need to behave in a moral fashion that forces them to make fundamental changes to their way of life. They will just find someone to tell them pleasant reactionary lies instead.

Yikes. I love Liz.

How did your trip turn out scone?

What I want to know is when does GE's bonds finally get rated as junk? Even with the government backing, they should have gone under already

Now, is that the default rate on bonds that were issued as junk or does that include bonds that became junk (like old GM bonds?) Seems like the junk bond market is going to grow because the "fallen angels" will add to it faster then existing companies default.

Thanks.

Yancey Ward (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/3/2009 - 8:33 pm

So, what is the next level below "junk"?

"Fighting over the office furniture"

The fiscal condition of state govts. is starting to give me the heebie jeebies.

I don't want to be a downer, but I just don't see how this is going to end well.

Byz, that was one of the 2 choices...the other choice is to keep issuing White papers that few voters read, and signing accords that are watered down, because ur stuck with a scientifically illiterate representative democracy that has "the right" to ignore Climate Change and to elect equally illiterate leaders.

A while back (was it only yesterday?) there was speculation on the total default rate on CMBS...that could reach over 10%, I think.

Today's WS Journal reported that kids are borrowing more money than ever to pay for college. Wonder what the default rate on that will be.

Hey how about all the people that bought clunkers? Do you think all of them had spotless credit and will repay every penny?

Hmmm...we seem to be creating more and more debt.

I'm new to the board and I love all your witty comments...yesterday someone posted a very short (but HILARIOUOS) comment...

"Upscale hotel in Stockton...what could go wrong?" If you have every been to Stockton you would know how funny this comment truly is.

"......kids are borrowing more money than ever to pay for college. Wonder what the default rate on that will be."

0% - those are non-default loans....they stay with you forever......

I spent a year in Stockton one day.

@ Outsider - Thanks! And now I have to get my husband and cat to NH, and get the house in Oregon ready to sell. I'll think about that tomorrow.

Oh noes, my favorite shopping sites. Whatever will I do?

well, they may stay with you forever...but it is a default and if kids are not making pmts and if the garnishments dont cover it (cant garnish wages from the unemployed who dont have jobless benefits), then the securities backed by those student loans DO DEFAULT...and the beat goes on.........

Ben makes em whole!!!!!

Avi Dao

Well, I’m not that old, but I’m willing to play anyways.

Certainly Chaing Kai Shek’s government was horribly corrupt, as can be seen from General Stiwill’s frustration with him. While on the mainland he personally kept US slush funds and/or paid them out to his cronies—and the horrible shapes of the men he sent General Stilwill attest to the fact that he didn’t really put much effort in fighting the Japanese. I think if they stayed with Chaing Kai Sheck China would have remained a puppet to the Western powers.

Mao certainly caused a lot of ruin for China, but one thing he did do was restore China’s sovereignty, and that would have to be critical. I have long term high hopes for China, it’s just that they still have many more growing pains to go through, and that doesn’t necessarily mean a permanent downgrading as it is a bump in the road; after all, the US fought a civil war during its growth period.

Uh, probably pensions funds looking to make up for losses the last year.

excellent point, B eason.
Now, imagine how CNN and FOX would have covered the US Civil War where in a nation of ONLY 30 million (we were a 10th our present population) one side of 18 million defeated a side of 12 million, burned a path down their hearts....and left them in ruin.
Where 900,000 were killed...or was it 600k? A huge fraction of the nation's men.

'Who wouldve expected the planet's greatest economic and military power to arise from that in a mere 90 years???

I have long term high hopes for China, it’s just that they still have many more growing pains to go through, and that doesn’t necessarily mean a permanent downgrading as it is a bump in the road; after all, the US fought a civil war during its growth period.

I hear China did that maybe once or twice too. =)

it was all that Greenspan nonsense- we can't do anything to prevent a bubble but can only deal with the aftermath of the bubble bursting. Makes about as much sense as "we can't prevent kids from playing with matches all we can do is make sure the fire department is around to put out the fire".

The problem is that when everyone toadies (well not every one- I wrote to Sarbannes in 1992 that Greenspan should not be appointed) it is hard not to believe that one was immaculatedly conceived and you have the ability to put just the right amount of water on the fire.

"Frankly, I think it's better to anticipate climate change and roll with the punches than try to avert it..."

.......probably.........but more likely are a few "errant" nukes that take out 90% of the world's population over ten years.........won't have to worry about climate change then........nor overcrowding.......

josap (profile) wrote on Thu, 9/3/2009 - 8:52 pm

How do we plan for the tipping point in global warming? Will it get hotter, will there be an ice age?

IMO, If you can't actually say what will happen, I think you can't justify a global effort on your behalf. That is called "scaremongering" and I don't think Dick Cheney is cool no matter who is playing him in this movie.

As for dealing with it -- use the talents of the scientists who have spent 20 years throwing themselves beneath the wheels of an unstoppable juggernaut because there are too many people who got raped during the 20th century who would have to give up "their turn" to deal with global warming, and too many people who would benefit from climate change who have a vested interest in seeing it take place.

It seems to me at some point we have to ask the question is a $150,000 BA degree worth it rather than how does everybody get a BA degree. As we have made the college degree more available to everybody we have simultaneously devalued the degree and made it more expensive. (BTW that is exactly the way markets are supposed to operate).

Would have been nice if Obama rather than plowing the same furrow in the ocean had started a national dialogue on what are the alternatives to a college education should we cut of high school in the 10th grade and incorporate community college for an additional 4 years?

Hey HomeG.........The Mrs says you ought to edit the Poll title after the BFF to tell us the correct amount/answer.

Outsider (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/3/2009 - 5:47 pm
reply ignore user
so really what is the worst that can happen?
That I have to write my rent check to a name I can't spell because I don't know Chinese?

Just make your check payable to Xxxxxx bank c/o Mr. Hu

"......should we cut of high school in the 10th grade and incorporate community college for an additional 4 years?"

.......terminate all public schooling - it's so 19th century. Most kids are PC literate - have them learn thru THIS new medium. Think of the taxpayer money saved. If private schools want to gather kids locally, fine. There are a lot better educators out there than just the ones wasting time in a classroom setting.

I was just looking into state flow through funding for tuition for a longggggg series of posts. Student loans, other then the ones I personally had, are a new field for me. Honestly, so far I think mortgage docs are clearer then student loans. Seriously, when did this happen? Has anyone thought about the how this is acerbating the current social and economic divide?

And don't say get in on the GI bill because they don't seem to cover squat anymore and those people deserve a whole hell of a lot better.

Hi Mrs BSR

IMO by 8th grade you can tell if someone will benifit from vocational school or college. You can then put them on a track that they will be sucessfull in. Most kids think that if they can't make it in college they are already failures.

Droppout rates are 9%, but that is with our dumbed down system.

Here in scenic South Carolina we have a 56% high school graduation rate!
Pathetic!

Deflationary Jane:

You are wrong about the GI Bill. The new one, pushed through by Senator Jim Webb of VA, pays the FULL in state tuition for the most expensive public university in the state, E-5 Basic Housing Allowance, and stipends for books and fees. It is very generous, and indexed to inflation.

I can't remember who it was .. but you were muttering something about needing sleep.

when did this happen?

D-Jane, Go back to the most recent SET: Structural Economic Transition, which was the combination of the 3 recessions from Oct 1973 thru Summer of 1982.
At the end, college costs were 3 years into double-digit increases and Reagan gutted direct federal student aid, leaving loans as the primary vehicle.
As Congress authorized greater loan sources, schools matched it with price increases dollar-4-dollar...and no one said anything cuz they were afraid to challenge the meme that the US has the Greatest University System in the World!! which was the effective defensive cry of higher ed everytime their practices were challenged.

Jim Webb won by 7,000 votes I think.

the key to a quality vote on the HomieG BFF #1 premium BFF poll is to actually see when the poll went up.

Last week the poll week up with a 1400 PST close.
This week appears to be a 1500 PST close.
Review your personal +/-. cast vote.

vote early, and often...

I went to college on the old, old VA

Nuke, did Webb's version survive the House-Senate compromise with all those provisions still intact?

We need more senators like Jim Webb. He was the secretary of the Navy in the early 1980s, and write one of the best novels on Vietnam: Fields of Fire.

Jane:

The new GI Bill went into effect last month. The old one did suck, though. Barely covered community college tuition. It was so bad the DoD made money off it. Everyone paid into it, but most guys, after getting discharged, did not bother applying for benefits because they were so paltry.

Got Anchovies?

The reason I say that kids should be put on a track is that the kids benifit from it. We have a system that tells people they are failures if they don't get a 4 yr degree. Everyone is suposed to grow up to be an atty, dr or banker.

I need people who can work on my car, fix a door frame and the air conditioner.

Avl Dao:

Yes. It is probably the best thing to come out of the VA since the original GI Bill.

Mrs BSR,

That was me doing the begging. I'm not below that when the situation calls for it, just ask my wife.

yagij:

I agree about the higher ed bubble. But what are you going to do? At least getting a large number of GIs into colleges will lead to some of the diversity the faculty senates are always crooning over. You know, working class and minority types who did something with their youth besides smoking pot and hooking up in the basement of the Kappa Phi house. How will the universities adjust to this type of diversity?

josap (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/3/2009 - 9:27 pm

The reason I say that kids should be put on a track is that the kids benefit from it.

Let me guess that you have a 4 year degree?

I need people who can work on my car, fix a door frame and the air conditioner.

Well gosh. Thanks for the opportunity to serve you as appropriate to my station, milord, but I'm a field nigger so fuck ya.

Spot on Josap. I've got two journeyman's cards, and my oldest son has one also. I can work all the hours I want, 7 days a week, and so can he. My daughter went to college to be a teacher, just got tenure, but faces an uncertain future as her school district is facing large cutbacks in the next few years.

Oh I know the Reagan plan very well. I was on track in a private school and looking at pre-med. The bastard nailed me and also removed the vet benefit that was extended to their survivor's education. I was accepted at my second choice, UCI but couldn't get a loan anywhere. I even tried all the branches of the armed services but I was smart enough to not trust them unless they put their guarantee in writing. The GI bill at the time wouldn't have covered a decent 4 year, let alone med school so I gave up and saved up for until many years.

I could have been Dr. Jane delivering babies all day and night. So the next time one of your wives gets stuck with a crappy OB/GYN, burn a picture of Reagan for me >; )

: Picking This Back Up...

I think you were wrong about #4 (Endowment doesn't matter), and endowment size is an important foundation for any university. After thinking about it for a moment, maybe it is more important to private institutions than to public ones, but with the state's percentage of the budget being reduced Y-o-Y, there isn't much separating the two sides as there once was.

I know of a small private institution that found itself short of scholarship funding due to falling fixed income rates of the 80s. They didn't want to cut back on the number of scholarships offered because of the university's mission and focus. Less return on investments meant having to touch the principle. At first it was negligible enough and could be covered by future donations. Then there were budgetary shortfalls due to other issues and the endowment was the only place that they could easily access without causing much of a stir like with tuition hikes or budget cuts. Fast forward 20 years and the endowment is gone. They were left with having to mortgage every piece of land that they owed or had been given to them in hopes of future expansion. Last Spring, there was talk that it was finally going to close up shop and leave tons of students hanging. I think a big time donor stepped in and gave them a lifeline to see if they could get their house in order this year, but if we have a repeat of last Fall, then you might as well start grave digging.

I don't think this small institution is alone, and reading what you posted about Oakland made it seem that the public ones are on just as shaky ground if not worse. And to make it all better, the professors are going out on strike in Michigan where they are dealing with one of the worse recessions ever. If they don't mend their ways, I can imagine that there will be a problem with future students unless those people are dense as rock.

Did you get a chance to read that task force report on administrative growth I posted earlier? That'll really get you going.

Well gosh. Thanks for the opportunity to serve you as appropriate to my station, milord, but I'm a field nigger so fuck ya.

Whoa. What is wrong with what she said? Was it the tone that set you off? Where did that come from?

She is right that there is a need for someone to fix HVAC units or repair cars. Should those jobs require a 4 yr degree? If there are students who are not wanting to be university tracked at that point in their lives, then why push 'em that way against their will? What is wrong if some child does want to be a chopper or do work with his/her hands?

Never Again:

The new GI bill started last month. It is supposed to cover 100?, and the check goes directly to the university. We will see, because, like I said, the program is 1 month old.

The old GI Bill did not send any money to the university. The check went to the student, and he paid the school. I think you are thinking of state programs, because that is not how the GI bill works.

Byz, slow down,.

I have a high school diploma. No college. I own my own business (for the last 15yrs).

I greatly value people who can do things I can't, like fix my car. And they are paid good money to do the work.

Never confuse education with intelligence.

'the diversity the faculty senates are always crooning over'

Don't get me wrong, I love most of my faculty. But the oldsters do not want diversity. The campus may want it ( I would say need) but down at the good old boy faculty level? nahhh ... trust me on this.

"How will the universities adjust to this type of diversity?"

They'll love it. It's a joy to teach a motivated student who knows what they're after.

yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 9/3/2009 - 9:42 pm

She is right that there is a need for someone to fix HVAC units or repair cars. Should those jobs require a 4 yr degree? If there are students who are not wanting to be university tracked at that point in their lives, then why push 'em that way against their will? What is wrong if some child does want to be a chopper or do work with his/her hands?

'Cause you live in a society that presumes everyone is an equal Citizen of the polis, and tracked education systems are a hallmark of co-opted 20th century industrial states. Notably, post-war Germany is the often-cited shining star example of this, but it was also done in Japan. Basically places that were technocracies; industrial combines pretending to be states.

We simply can't afford to have it -- not vocational education, nor vocational education for smart kids called "higher education" that's really vo-tech for engineers and lawyers. We need an educational system that turns out Citizens. It needs to focus on human factors -- civics, economics, anthropology, psychology, human history. It needs to turn people into educated voters. Everything else is secondary to producing good Citizens who are ready to take their place in the polis. It's what we lack, and it's killing our society. Building a hierarchic system of tiered education compounds the error -- this country needs levelling, not new hierarchies for the rich to dominate.

America doesn't need to worry about optimizing the economic yield of its students, it's totally fucked. It's a kleptocracy on the verge of collapse. It needs to get leadership / rulership talent developed so it can unfuck itself, not worry about optimizing the economic output of the average school-system grad or making sure everyone gets into the peg-hole in life that suits them best. What slot, the one in the broken board that features "compliance officer", "cop" and "health care professional" as the only three choices where you make enough to eat?

Byz, you would be an excellent homeschooler.

and I think everyone needs the same stringent education regardless of what vocational training they end up receiving

Byz, I have a 3rd grader that can't stand school. I would never want to subject her to stringent education because it kills her spirit. She will follow her own way.

I also have a valedictorian. To each his own. I do not place value on a person dependent upon their academic abilities or achievements. Each person has-to-find-their-own-way. There is no one-size-fits-all.

Public school in S. Fla? I can testify.

Citizenship my ass. The state can kiss my butt. I am owned by no man, including the state.

That's just my point of view.