First Time Home Buyer NAR Numbers
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 09/01/2009 - 6:03pm (265 comments)
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If the numbers don't lie, can we lie about the numbers?
each ex-spouse in a divorce also qualifies as a FTHB...
So whatever you think your house value is, just deduct $43K from it.
Wonder if Zillow is gonna tack this into their algorithm?
Magic Jackson, The Gathering
So whatever you think your house value is, just deduct $43K from it.
Woo hoo!! My dream house in Detroit just went negative! Now someone owes me to live there! Now I can afford to expand my urban garden operation!
Wait, this is deflationary, right?
C
each ex-spouse in a divorce also qualifies as a FTHB...
Which is odd because it is becoming a trend where people are avoiding the marital home because of its albatross-like nature. While I cannot doubt that it happens, I cannot imagine a couple fighting over who has to deal with the house to the only turn around and buy a new house! Must be a
flu strain going around. 
Or is it disinflationary?
C
Wonder if Zillow is gonna tack this into their algorithm?
Surrealistic Zillow (R) has been more trippy than usual, tacking an extra $50k onto my house in the last month, while leaving most of my neighbors flat. Maybe they are valuing my new carpet at $50k? Makes no sense.
Antidisdeinflationary.
Subflationary?
C
How well do we trust any numbers from the NAR?
Protoflationary?
C
Xenoflationary?
C
Antidisestabilshmentflationaryism.
Everytime that I see the NAR guy on the tube, I want to smack him and yell, "What is the frequency, Kenneth?"
Just the sheer joy of it...
Neoprotoflationary?
C
/where the hell's my textbook, I know it was covered.
Bull Market Confirmed
¿
dont h8t me.
How about inflatuationary?
Declinationary?
Bank Failure:
I wondered what happened to Persecuted comrade anonymouse.
I saw that edit.
Take yer meds
Antidisestablishmenthyperinflationarytarianism...
Wagflation
Brazil
antiflationary?
Does it matter at all to anyone on this board that this tax credit is phased out for single persons with MAGI of $75,000 and married couples iwth MAGI of $150,000?
Is the reason the overwhleming majority of commenters here have deemed this the worst economic plan ever to befall America the simple fact that it isn't a tax cut for the rich?
$16B out of a $787B ARRA stimulus is not that big a deal.
Discuss among yourselves . . . or don't.
So where did the 350K number come from? there are 4-6M homes sold per year, about 400K new construction (5.2M yearly rate in July) - as near as I can tell there were 300K or so sales last month above July of last year - so is that what the number means? is it just a simple comparison to last years numbers? Also 45% new home owners sounds high - what was it last year? Can you please look into the facts a bit instead of spouting the 45K number all the time, some of us actually want to know what the hell is going on.
bah homedad beat me.
How about circumflationary? Or maybe mesoflationary?
if it is antiflationary we should take care to make sure this program does not come into physical contact with any of our flationary programs due to the explosive reaction that would occur. see? economics is a real science.
I would argue that I'm the lowest wage earner on this board if we compare between the regulars and I hate the 8k credit. To make it worse, I'm a super greenie liberal and I hate the credit.
I would argue that I'm the lowest wage earner on this board
Come on, you're a Cali employee.
Tax credit would be great if i was ready to buy something, unfortunately the market here in Boston is loaded with $500,000 fixer uppers
Pinnacle 80's Alt Bro Experience
I'm a dad too, but I werk......
If you finance $8K for 30 years @6% the interest is $9,267.06 The whole thing is a lot to do about marketing. How smart this is? Plus the seller probably won't drop the price as hard while the frenzy is on.
nobody on this board makes less money than me4werk.
Asian markets are open.....Hang Seng and Nikkei cliff diving while Shanghai is cliff climbing.
Major World Indices - Yahoo! Finance
Dryfly Comment by dryfly from thread 'Cartoon and some Financial News'
But the funny thing about innovation is you can't really rush it - it requires people to LEARN how to use the stuff & accept & adopt it... usually long after initial introduction.
That isn't gonna happen no matter how much R&D they do now. First off they don't have a clue what the 'next big thing' is anyway... so why push it now?
[...]
I mean we had computers in the 60s but it took until the middle-late 80s to embrace them. Now they are 'commodities'.
This was a great comment, and I should respond to it on its own. Hopefully you're not mistaking my intention here: it's not to push a specific technology over another--I agree, that'd be useless--but instead to commit to projects that would demand significant research in order to accomplish. I take no umbrage with your timeframe, as any potential benefits would probably be at least 20 years in the future before anything would be 'commoditized'.
Few remember the recession of 1960-1961, even though it was quite harsh. Everyone, however, was smitten with the 'Space Race', which, quite frankly, was a giant
from a cost/benefit perspective. Yet, the government was willing to spend ridiculous amounts of money on infant technology that jump-started research programs in a number of companies and may, arguably, have put the USA on a second R&D footing that pulled the country through the next few decades.
I'm over simplifying, of course, but if we're going to have the government spend insane amounts of money, at least focus it so that we can jumpstart our stagnating R&D capacity again.
Mr Slippery Comment by Mr Slippery from thread 'Cartoon and some Financial News'
Unchecked? Creative destruction happens during a natural transition from one cluster of technologies to a superior cluster. The newer, better stuff is naturally preferred by the market, nothing insidious going on here.
I was being too broad with my use of the term. I was thinking more in the Misean sense of 'malinvestment' and the need for flushing out the bad decisions. It is an important and necessary cycle, but it requires time in order for smooth adjustments to be made. Worsening business environments demanding smart decisions is one thing; gigantic shocks that are impossible to mitigate are something else altogether.
Dryfly Comment by dryfly from thread 'Cartoon and some Financial News'
There are three steps in 'change'... (1) an unsatisfactory current condition (2) dream of a better condition and (3) a conduit or bridge to get participants from (1) to (2). Creative destruction is in effect burning the bridge after you [or while] you are crossing.
This is a great, but I would add the element of time. While it doesn't have to occur over a decade or anything, shocks to the underlying system, such as a nuclear bomb
, would interrupt this necessary progression and exact significant collateral damage.
We're looking for an evolutionary path, in the darwinian sense, not an 'Extinction Event'.
And keep it clear of naked flames. Both old and new.
C
/returns to bookshelf.
Back Bay holding up on fixer-uppers?!?
Sort of - Only 13% of me is.
The other 87% is funded by foreign education programs for the emerging market wealthy.
What everyone should fear is when all this stimulus is gone.
Then what?
Massive mods are necessary to stabilize the housing market, let alone begin to allow real increases in house prices.
The deflation in house prices by no means assures universal deflation.
Right now we are at the crossroads of economics, inflation, deflation, or stagflation.
I vote the last.
Someday this war's gonna end...
I would argue that I'm the lowest wage earner on this board if we compare between the regulars
I've got some accounting on my wages that would give you a run for the money,...and it's hard to beat Broward's zero tolerance earnings.
$500,000 is a fixer upper parking spot in Back Bay
punchy - thanks for the update.
Nikki's actually having noodles right now after an exhausting morning wiping 2.63% from the board.
C
each ex-spouse in a divorce also qualifies as a FTHB...
Ooh, I see another way to game the system.
Get a divorce, get 2 8K credits, and turn one into a vacation home. Then get remarried.
Am I missing something?
hmmmm I may have to surrender to Broward.
How about the lowest paid person that actually has a full time job?
crap, furloughs.... I give up
Nikki's actually having noodles right now after an exhausting morning wiping 2.63% from the board.
I've always found it cute that Nikki takes time out of her day for a healthy relaxing lunch.
Quite frankly, it's something American markets could learn from.
Alcohol Is the proper fix for economic ills.
Make everybody feel good and all else falls into place.
This board has been a helluva lotto fun.
Even Ben and Sportsfan.
Hehehe... yes, I concierged on Newbury. Separate deeds for the prop and parking spots - freaked me out first I learned of it.
Lotsalotsa fun hanging out with the in-crowd for almost two years, though. Crazy times even back then.
It doesn't really matter who is the lowest earner on this blog. The point is we're either all poor already, or will be in the near future.
Please excuse my eternal optimism.
unemployed "dont phuck with my poolgame, and yes Im wearing a thong" iz a great soundingboard.
if it is antiflationary we should take care to make sure this program does not come into physical contact with any of our flationary programs due to the explosive reaction that would occur. see? economics is a real science.
However, if we could hook up some sort of an inflationary/antiinflationary reaction generator it might be a way to power our economy on nothing more than the policies of Washington.
"Which is odd because it is becoming a trend where people are avoiding the marital home because of its albatross-like nature."
My GF's ex stuck her with the house. She was clueless because he paid the bills and she never really paid attention. He just said, "You can have the house." She thought she was getting a great deal. She's getting the last laugh because dufus never signed all of the papers over to her and now the house is in foreclosure. Dufus thought the divorce decree took care of his responsibility.
There are millions of people in this situation who aren't as financially literate as you CR readers. Many of them aren't greed heads who cashed out for toys. I'd say most of them outside of places like California simply got overwhelmed by the entire process and don't understand the pitfalls.
Actually, I'm looking forward to the stimulus being gone.
Circumflation is when both inflation and deflation crash each other's tail. It has all the stability of a ping pong match.
I think that about sums it up >; )
noob -- you're good. you must be from chicago
I have no wages or salary at all.
Do I get a
? I'm sure I was promised one at some point. A guy with some letters after his name said I had to transcend the salary paradigm in a holistic out of the box going forward space. I think he was shizo or on drugs. He kept saying "You six will be fine for you".
C
Broward,
It is all serious fun, the challenge, the win. Even if I only have a H2O cocktail.
What a mess. Wake me up when the govt. quits the tax credit, quits backing 3.5% down mortgages, and quits propping up zombie banks making stupid loans. Then I'll think about buying. It could be awhile...
"A guy with some letters after his name said I had to transcend the salary paradigm in a holistic out of the box going forward space. I think he was shizo or on drugs."
Nah, he was probably from Marin County.
It's hard to be pessimistic when surrounded by so many flirtatious Salem sirens.
I
Broward I read the realmeme on a regular basis, I just dont promote it as a lifestyle.
Pending Home Sales Increase in August
Custody Suites?
Police support services
ArmorGroup - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
snip/ ArmorGroup International is a British company providing private security. It was founded in 1981 and was listed on the London Stock Exchange until 6 June 2008 (it was acquired by G4S plc in April 2008).
Shocking Hazing at U.S. Embassy in Kabul - CBS Evening News - CBS News
---Best Mercenaries Money Can Buy.
Y OT?
2soon?
noob -- you're good. you must be from chicago
Maybe I should change my name to The Zombie Milton.
Or is it still too soon to make him the subject of dead economist handles?
Jamie Dimon,
When you read comments here about house prices having dropped too low, how does that sound to you from your Boston vantage point? How do you feel about the role of your local representative, Mr B Frank, in housing finance?
Shine on... just for you: The Prince | THE BOSTON CONDO BLOG Others here may recognize it, of course. That second pic, the view from the inside of that place is awesome, as are the roofdeck views.
Good memories.
Edit: "are" not "is" views.
correcting myself: it's not as broad as simply ex-spouses. according to the HUD definition. it's a single parent who has only owned with a former spouse while married. not sure how a divorce with joint custody would fit in there. would it create two single parents?
I got your
for ya, right here. Just send me 8K for shipping and handling and I'll mail it to you.
New round here, huh?
C
hi.
I just logged on, what are we talking about?
What do I need to know?
hi.
I just logged on, what are we talking about?
What do I need to know?
Well, the thread is the newest First Time Home Buyer NAR Numbers, so pretty much anything but that.
"Wake me up when the govt. quits the tax credit, quits backing 3.5% down mortgages...."
Well, I hate to break the news to you, Mr Van Winkle, but....
8-24-16-1-7-3-6-2-17-23-14-1
8-24-16-1-7-3-6-2-17-23-14-1
-106.
What do I win?
Since we're so lost and foregone here, I suggest a little theme music:
YouTube - Steely Dan - Deacon Blues
I'd like to say it was my first time,but it truly isn't.
I was married a long time ago and bought what we called our home. Later when he was dead and I was able to persuade the bank, I bought another. I got a first timer bonus for that, don't ask me what it was.
I'm closing in 48 days on a place and once again, I qualify for the first timer deal. Saints be praised.
noob -- go ahead. 3 year fermentation makes excellent zombies. it's the sweet spot really.
Excellent, for the last one I had to go and meet a nice Nigerian man at the left luggage lockers at Paris CDG. Turned out he had a family funeral and couldn't come that day, but he said my first tranche went to a good cause! I've still got the basic equipment and the skittle collector that he left to go with the
.
Happy times, maybe simpler too. Still got my
names book. One day...
C
Saturn closing Canadian dealerships
Outta this world, eh hosers?
It's beyond complicated, Basel. I ain't moving from my almost-paid-for crapshack, but there are millions of divorced/shacked up/newly remarried former homedebtors out there and a lot of them would like to get their hands on the free government loot. If the government is going to toss our money away it should be a much simpler form of purchase credit.
Don't make me cry , Ben
it scares the ladies
I'm probably outta the pool playing bidness tomorrow
no thanks to Americans whichis depressing
movin to Chindia?
or just telecom-mute-ing.
16-24-6-16-1-8-21-12-4
a real number
less than zero
put a tune on it.....for ya HomieG.
noob -- go ahead. 3 year fermentation makes excellent zombies. it's the sweet spot really.
So apparently switching usernames on whim, like we used to do, is a tad more difficult than it used to be.
Not that I'd ever go back, but it was definitely a distraction for late nights when everyone became "comrade", for example.
Oh well, we'll always have the summer of 08.
16-24-6-16-1-8-21-12-4
Are we doing your business payroll deductions or something?
I've obviously missed something here today, as I've seen you post this a few times, no?
I think it's a message from above about lottery numbers for tomorrow. You can see it too? I thought it was just me.
16-24-6-16-1-8-21-12-4
Ovaltine? Damn, where is that Little Orphan Annie decoder when you need it.
google says -76. yes i actually googled it, i thought it might be a clue or something.
google says -76. yes i actually googled it, i thought it might be a clue or something.
Don't feel guilty. I googled the first one and ended up with -106, for the same reason.
I thought those were his SC Lotto picks myself.
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- No other state comes close to Florida in defaulted municipal bonds.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the number of bond issues that have gone into default over the past decade and Florida’s contribution to the total, according to the Distressed Debt Securities newsletter of Miami Lakes, Florida. Of the 126 bonds that are in default in 2009, 70 were sold in Florida.
Florida’s Bust Propels Muni Default Spike: Chart of the Day - Bloomberg.com
Florida - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
8-18-21-6-16-24
We're looking for an evolutionary path, in the darwinian sense, not an 'Extinction Event'.
But you frequently need an 'extinction event' to foster innovation... think ferns & dinosaurs & asteroids leading to the age of flowering plants & grasses & mammals. Without all those massively open niches mammals wouldn't have 'evolved' the same way.
Ironically evolution happens shockingly fast once the niches are cleared out [species exited - extinct]... but in between those periods time grinds on slowly.
The TWO things that hold back innovation the most are (1) comfort on the part of both individuals & organizations wrt status quo and (2) acceptance of the new thing as something better. It can be obvious later but at the time the holdouts are NOT convinced.
Think horse & carriage vs automobile.
Think paper, typewriter & file cabinet vs computer.
Think snail mail vs email, text, etc.
Its not enough that they are available - it requires active acceptance and frequently the DEATH of the previous status quo to force the change. Think pay phones vs mobile phone....
There is more 'psychology' & 'sociology' in innovation than there is 'science' & 'technology'... that is where the time is... the lag is in the emotional part of the brain not the rational part.
What is it with Florida? That place is going to, well, I won't mention it because I don't want to be responsible for another drug-related thread.
I like the risotto pics better! Mrs. HG cooking it up.
Florida Marijuana Grow Houses - Miami - Slideshows
Oh no. I ruined the thread.
:shame:
dryfly, is the US still the largest manufacturing country?
How to Hunt Squirrels | eHow.com
Looks like someone trying to score a game of Hell (this crazy card game we played at LASFS)
dryfly, is the US still the largest manufacturing country?
I've heard yes and I've heard no [with China or EU if EU is a 'country'].
I don't know - there is still an awful lot out there but its running 'light' right now. Not just automotive either.
dryfly, is the US still the largest manufacturing country?
You kidding? With the number of cheeseburgers we manufacture, we're bound to be number one. And if that fails us, we'll make manufacturing numbers part of the base,...we're #1!!!
smell y'all later
"I've heard yes and I've heard no "
Dryfly is correct. According to a McKinsey study last year, China would overtake the US in manufacturing in 2010, but the "recession" got in the way.
The argument is now going back and forth. My guess: If China isn't Numero Uno, they will be on the next upswing.
HomeGnome: I don't know why step by step instructions on squirrel hunting makes any sense, well unless you're taking to a bunch of stupid, suburban, stretch pants wearing, kitten heel mules klop, klop, klopping along the strasse,
o
never mind
from CRs comments
"Now there are different definitions of "first-time": for the tax credit "First-time" homebuyers are defined as anyone who hasn't owned a primarily residence for the last 3 years (not really "first-time")."
hmmm kinda puts a whole new slant on the definition of virgin
Well, just googling quickly, according to this site, as of 2007 the US was still the top manufacturing country. Of course, at lot of things have changed since 2007.
Top 12 Manufacturing Countries in 2007 at Curious Cat Investing and Economics Blog
WOW
last one
Take me Down to the Infirmary
Outsider, forging public opinion via posting at blogs in defense of a system better off a part of what the story tellers talk about.
Anyone want to hazard an estimation of the lag time before the tax credits claimants show up in the default figures?
"Oh noes! I thought I got $8k every month! But how am I to pay this humungous mortgage??"
With your credit card, dumbass.
C
You kidding? With the number of cheeseburgers we manufacture, we're bound to be number one. And if that fails us, we'll make manufacturing numbers part of the base,...we're #1!!!
Next time you go to a fast food place - look in the back, at the machinery. That stuff is plenty complex & upgraded often. Guess where almost all of it is made?
Next look at the actual meal - and ask yourself... "why don't my 'homemade burgers' look like that?"... Try some time to replicate one - it is no easy feat. The 'process' in 'processed food' happens WAY before it reaches the 'machine'.
Or contemplate what goes into a 'thick shake' - notice how it isn't called a 'milk shake'? There is a reason for that.
There is a TON of mfg associated w/ fast food - just damned little of it directly behind the counter at the 'retail' outlet.
Huh?
If you're saying the site I cited was questionable, it was just a quick google. I'll have to research further.
Best argument for Obama's medical care:
demotivational posters - ObamaCare - If it looked like this, you could count me in government, health care, obama, nurse, sexy, tongue, cleavage, boobs, cake 33257
Just don't blow a stent, Rob Dawg;-}
So we will live in perpetual default.
Might as well join the club and quit paying, then play the giant stall game for a couple of years.
Someday this war's gonna end...
outsider, I'm just fuckin witcha
someone who rented for 3 years is not a a first time home buyer. That's like saying if I don't have sex for 3 years, the government will give me a new hymen.
OT: I posted the distressed sale percentages for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley:
Effective Demand: Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County
Effective Demand: Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley
Good, because I really couldn't understand a word you were saying.
WOW
last one
Take me Down to the Infirmary
That was a goodie - thanks bf
I don't think the fed health plan covers reconstructive hymen surgery. Sorry!
betcha don't know shit about what you linked either
someone who rented for 3 years is not a a first time home buyer. That's like saying if I don't have sex for 3 years, the government will give me a new hymen.
Oh just tell them you're a virgin anyway and just like to ride horses hard... no crime against that is there?
OMG, I'm outta here.
But you frequently need an 'extinction event' to foster innovation... think ferns & dinosaurs & asteroids leading to the age of flowering plants & grasses & mammals. Without all those massively open niches mammals wouldn't have 'evolved' the same way.
Ironically evolution happens shockingly fast once the niches are cleared out [species exited - extinct]... but in between those periods time grinds on slowly.
The TWO things that hold back innovation the most are (1) comfort on the part of both individuals & organizations wrt status quo and (2) acceptance of the new thing as something better. It can be obvious later but at the time the holdouts are NOT convinced.
Agreed, a mass extinction can certainly result in new niches being opened and homesteaded by previously uncompetitive creatures. I am very reticent to apply this metaphor to the economic system, only for the connotations which it would have. If we extend this further, and assume huge multinational complex companies are the 'least adaptable' and the individual human actor is 'most adaptable', like a single-celled bacterium, I think we'd agree that a massive upheaval would initially destroy the huge immovable firms and leave large swaths of 'open canopy' for the green shoots to fill.
However, the offshoot is that our entire civilization, for the most part, is fed and clothed by these large entities, maintaining that social cohesion while this adjustment worked through the system would be, as you described earlier, quite a challenge.
The other implication, which is pertinent to doomers, is that this metaphor would indicate that the sword of righteous libertarian justice, as has this type of shift has been described in CR forums elsewhere, would be quite fickle and may or may not favour those who have placed a great deal of attention and effort in preparing for this shift. It would probably be quite capricious, as a matter of fact.
I suppose it all depends on exactly how this 'extinction event' unfolds, in terms of who may benefit and who may perish.
reconstructive hymen surgery
Now that's a stimulus package I can get behind.
...new hymen.
LOL. So much for soda.
I was looking for a reason to get a new laptop. Thank you.
G'night folks.
This place is starting to sound like Zero Hedge and that's not good.
I survived adolescence, barely, and care not to revisit it.
Finance economics and real estate. Finance economics and real estate. Won't go there...
Apparently none of you are True Blood fans.
Nawww they're overrated anyways and certainly not worth the 3 years >; )
that makes sense, the agent comes, the agent goes, it's almost like we're the agency
most of the people here are lame, it's the ones that aren't I enjoy and benefit from hearing from
Nah, the hymenoptera are ultimate socialists, you want to get involved with that?.
Sorry MP
I haven't liked the new and improved FTHB definition for a while. It's too easy to game and still marginalizes the people it's most meant to help. And yes I do have a dog in this fight.
All due respect, sir, care to elaborate? I get two things out of each site and don't care to revisit the argument but that's just me. Thank you very much.
OKay, fine, mp- go ask conjure when we start into 1931 on the simulator;-}
Sitting in cash and liquidating debt.
This is turning into a boring year.
I want some action!!
The only question is should I liquidate some glod and silber, or should I wait until the chinese give us the new new price?
Someday this war's gonna end...
The only question is should I liquidate some glod and silber
Why would you do that? That would be like leaving a great movie after the opening act.
mp - here's some potential bare-minimum constructive comment for you, Jim Chanos briefs the great and the wise in April 2007 about the coming crash:
Rob Johnson: Jim Chanos Warned Brown, Geithner, and Others about Coming Financial Crash in 2007
Ignored.
There's something nagging me about April 07. I'll add later if it comes back.
C
Cause I am getting bored!
I dunno, cause the price may fall?
It might be years until 1980 at this rate. Like six or seven.
ennui. work has been like watching paint dry and crack lately. still employed, but bored stiff and trying to repress manglement stupidities de jour.
Someday this war's gonna end...
However, the offshoot is that our entire civilization, for the most part, is fed and clothed by these large entities, maintaining that social cohesion while this adjustment worked through the system would be, as you described earlier, quite a challenge.
The other implication, which is pertinent to doomers, is that this metaphor would indicate that the sword of righteous libertarian justice, as has this type of shift has been described in CR forums elsewhere, would be quite fickle and may or may not favour those who have placed a great deal of attention and effort in preparing for this shift. It would probably be quite capricious, as a matter of fact.
I suppose it all depends on exactly how this 'extinction event' unfolds, in terms of who may benefit and who may perish.
Sword of righteous libertarian justice... I like that but it sure isn't what I'm getting at. I see nothing moral or righteous or justice-like about what is happening. But I do see an 'extinction event' on the horizon anyway - they happen and there is nothing that can be done about it except (1) survive yourself and (2) adapt to the new environment. Or go 'extinct'.
And 'yes' multi-nationals are the least adaptive and will fight the changes the hardest. And as long as they are strong & numerous... they will be successful via regulatory capture & 'subsidy'... but it grinds on until the system can no longer support them & they & 'their niche' collapse in the 'extinction event'. That's your creative destruction at work.
"What everyone should fear is when all this stimulus is gone."
Allen........What is with the FEAR? I really don't get "the fear" people are reeling from. Is it a fear of the unknown, or, the fear that they are still dependent upon the actions of our government to take care of them? If it's the latter, then one of the last things 'mp' said should be taken to heart, "It's time to DO SOMETHING". Not to continue talking, but DO SOMETHING.
...........I have no dog in this fight.
Just a guess
International Herald Tribune
04-18-2007
The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday limited states' power to oversee financial institutions, ruling that Michigan could not regulate mortgage-lending subsidiaries of Wachovia and other federally chartered banks.
Check in tomorrow or later in the week.
4 The Fear
Top Ten - Top 10 Hunter S. Thompson Quotes - Top 10 - HST - Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas - Great Shark Hunt - Rolling Stone
And 'yes' multi-nationals are the least adaptive and will fight the changes the hardest. And as long as they are strong & numerous... they will be successful via regulatory capture & 'subsidy'... but it grinds on until the system can no longer support them & they & 'their niche' collapse in the 'extinction event'. That's your creative destruction at work.
Much like a T-Rex who starves due to a lack of food, a multinational can lobby and do all they want to maintain their positions, but if demand from other, less well-heeled, sectors shrinks they'd starve anyway.
The T-Rex didn't have a government to plead "too big to fail" during their extinction event, but it would have made little difference anyway, in the long run. The earth quite simply could not support them. I have a feeling this may be apt for our situation now as well.
This has been a fun discussion. I've never really thought of this situation within this framework before, and it's been quite illuminating.
BSR- read the news from 1930- it is strangely close to today's headlines.
The fear will come from dryfly's dislocations in the fabric of the entire economy.
How much of the system do you depend on?
The V.A.? SSI?
Enough gas to get to town on a regular basis?
6 "Myths and legends die hard in America. We love them for the extra dimension they provide, the illusion of near-infinite possibility to erase the narrow confines of most men's reality. Weird heroes and mould-breaking champions exist as living proof to those who need it that the tyranny of 'the rat race' is not yet final."
—The Great Shark Hunt, 1979
so how far out am I from the norm?
Someday this war's gonna end...
Black Star, I've seen this before. On the rational, intellectual, level they understand, but they have problems internalizing it, making it part of what they know to be true.
So, the re-arranging of deck chairs continues until they're plunged into the water, then ...
What is with the FEAR? I really don't get "the fear" people are reeling from. Is it a fear of the unknown, or, the fear that they are still dependent upon the actions of our government to take care of them?
I don't care about government actions, I just want my kids to grow up and have the opportunity to live a long, healthy life. The unknown frightens me only in not knowing if I've adequately prepared myself to support them through it.
It sounds really cliche as I write it out in front of me, but that is, indeed, my fear. I'm fairly well prepared, I think, for the current status quo, and various permutations of our current system. But a gigantic upheaval that challenges all of our institutions and threatens our entire civilization?
I'm comfortable enough in my manhood to say that would cause me fear.
EDIT: Removed "Keeps me up at night", as that was a gross exaggeration.
"And the numbers will get worse if the program is extended."
CR really this is but a modifyer for what, pray tell. "Worse' is subjective term.
Many abnormalities must be acknowledged before the new normal can be accepted
One and done-
16-5-1-3-5
"EDIT: Removed "Keeps me up at night", as that was a gross exaggeration."
It keeps me up at night, and has done for several years now.
If Bernanke is sticking around, what about Timmy G? He's an odd man in an odd situation
Jeebus, it's all coming back to me. The reason the G8 ministers and staff meeting in DC ignored some hedgie like Chanos wittering on about crap booking of US mortgage assets in the week of April 17 2007 is that half of them had foremost in mind to hand the president of a certain international finance institution his ass on a platter, and the other half were looking for an escape hatch. The main riff of the week was entirely geopolitical, not economic or financial.
C
"Jeebus, it's all coming back to me. "
They knew. Of course, they knew.
I find all of these reduxes on 60 Minutes and such very interesting. "No one knew." That's bullshit. WE KNEW, so they did too.
It keeps me up at night, and has done for several years now.
I can't disagree that I've lost sleep because I've been running dark possibilities through my head at night, but the lack of predictability, avoidability and knowledge of duration and intensity, means that it becomes a waking concern for me.
I save my sleepless nights for problems occupying the next 24 hours.
Anyway,
Since I'm lucky enough to still have employment, I should at least make an attempt to arrive refreshed and productive.
snicker
Almost with a straight face.
"I've been running dark possibilities through my head at night"
I do that as well, but I also run through plans and actions.
I do that as well, but I also run through plans and actions.
I do have plans, but they are suboptimal right now. If we could just make this crash hold off another six or so months, I would be in a much better place.
I'll survive here, I'm fairly sure, but it all depends on the speed, intensity, and focus of the collapse. And that's why I'm having difficulty planning for it. I just know too little.
ContraryInvestor's monthly take is on CRE. Great as always!
Market Observations
...........I've been ready for years...............
........Hasta........
There was a post by Edward Hugh on employment in Germany and Japan, Global Economy Matters: What Is The Real Level Of Unemployment In Germany And Japan?
Someone mentioned Japanese unemployment last thread
How many here remember Zasu Pitts? She was such a sweetheart.
YouTube - ZaSu Pitts: Learn My Name!
Until that time...
mp - yes, it was all known. But the chaff and distractions were huge, and in the IMF statements that week, the nuanced dance around "multilateral surveillance" was basically the code for "hey, we all suspect a sh!tstorm's coming, right?", but try to get that signal from the ambient noise:
http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2007/pr0771.htm
http://www.imf.org/external/spring/2007/imfc/statement/eng/gbr.pdf
C
Everyone check out the first chart on RE's ContraryInvestor link. WOOF!!!
Ker-rist... Doomquake.
Remind me how a floor gets put under CMBSs? Ben has a wand or something, right?
C
I see what kcooper did to fetch the title of a link and substitute it for the html link. neat
`
Counterpointer, you're up late (?) what is it about international politics that is drawing your attention at this hour?
Natural interest, trying to read between the lines to find secrets, projecting future multi-lateral negotiated actions?
Just identifying dark matter in the system.
nytol
C
C -
You need to relax, because I had it on good authority years ago from 'actual professionals' that this is all the work of "zit-faced hedgies" and that it's actually a
Nothing to see here, move along little doggies, move along.
This was off a post from eric i think re campers. Spent a couple of hours going the videos.
very very informative. Apparently the word is Permaculture
Viddler.com -
Permaculture - Farms for the Future - Uploaded by PermaScience
Permaculture In The Tropics Video
Sorry not eric, it was km4 (profile) wrote on Tue, 9/1/2009 - 5:53 pm
For more hard-pressed Americans, a campsite is home | csmonitor.com
Well, Gordon Brown is Britain's 21st century Neville Chamberlain...cowardly acts to appease the masses while turning a blind eye to the real problems at hand.
Apr 20, 2007, 1:01 p.m. EST
Paulson says U.S. housing sector 'at or near bottom'
this help jog your memory?
NW
@Effective Demand - Are you planning to update Effective Demand: Ventura County Demand versus Inventory - July 2009 ?
I found it to be very helpful.
Talk about self serving.
Industry Seeks Fannie, Freddie Overhaul - WSJ.com
Industry Seeks Fannie, Freddie Overhaul
A mortgage-industry trade group is calling for Congress to transform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into several smaller privately held companies that would issue mortgage securities carrying an explicit government guarantee.
Another plan where mortgage originators can avoid retaining credit risk.
Edward points out in that piece that
"dividing the cost of the hidden jobless and in-house unemployed between companies, households and government could well represent a major policy challenge for the new Japanese administration when it assumes office. Given the seriousness of the social and political problems that result from sharp rises in unemployment, it is quite possible the next Japanese government will strengthen the employment adjustment subsidy scheme by, for example, further relaxing its terms and conditions, and it is rather unlikely to try to limit the number of eligible cases by tightening conditions. The net upshot of this, will, of course, be a further deterioration in Japan's gross debt to GDP position."
I don't think there's any question that there's a sharp increase in unemployment in Japan. Historically of course, redundant employees were just shunted off to dead-end "jobs" while being retained on company payrolls. I think Japan's gross debt is going to be a real problem, sometime in the next 5 yars or so. I'll be skeptical of real change in Japanese policies until we see concrete changes, though.
pico,
It got lost in the noise but I had updated it last week:
Effective Demand: Ventura County Demand versus Inventory - August 2009
an interesting viewpoint:
The 19th-Century Bernanke
The 19th-Century Bernanke - Lilburne - Mises Institute
In the rosethorn neighborhood this last spring, a family had to move out of their rental house because the dad lost his job due to school district cutbacks. They had nowhere to go; fortunately a relative of ours had an RV that we arranged to let them use for free throughout the summer until they were able to figure things out. It was fortunate because our neighbors were able to tell their kids they were having a summer camping vacation.
" is the US still the largest manufacturing country? "
Are we still counting new asset backed securities being issued for TALF?
Nice attempt at a big picture view. In a world where the nation was run with a rational, long-term view, we'd have maglevs parallel to the 5, 90, 10, 395, a balanced budget, well-funded SS and medicare.
Instead, the baby boomers took over. Now, we have nothing but debt and a lovely montage of the likes of Dimon, Bernanke, W, Geithner, Clinton....
From MacroMan:
...In yesterday's fairly lackluster session, Lehman Brothers-Lehman Bloody Brothers!-stock traded 125 million shares, rising to 18c. In the last two sessions, that share price has more than tripled. Now, Macro Man gathers there is some stuff going on with respect to the vultures picking over the carcass of LEH, fighting for scraps. But he cannot think of any rational reason in the world why anyone would want to buy Lehman common stock....hell, until yesterday's move was pointed out to him, he didn't know that Lehman stock still existed! Gee, he wonders if he can get a quote on Enron or Penn Central...
Macro Man: Game On?
OT- T+2 settlement for Europe
FT.com / FT Trading Room
Someone is talking his book to boost sales of "straight-thru processing" infrastructure.
NW
test
Hey,
Anyone know how this star link works at this site? Re: The permalink is indicated by a small star symbol on each of his posts. I'm knew at this....
Daring Fireball
I need a class on this stuff.... just curious???
Yojimbo 2.0 ★
This thread is worse than Hitler!
Yah, this is a crazy place; glad I'm about to leave....
Holiday ★
LOL.... is this off topic.... ??
Oh great, yet another way we can give each other and ourselves little treats.
★ ★ ★
On topic. So, -if- between 40% and 45% of homes sold are to first time homebuyers then the ratio of homeowners should be rising. Oh what a tangled web we weave...
Classic government interference. Subsidize something = get more of that thing. Why can't we subsidize something useful like manufacturing productivity? Oh that's right, we tax productivity and then act all surprised when we get less of it.
I see Willem Buiter has returned from the Vineyard. This morning, he takes up proposals for an international 'Tobin Tax' on transactions and, though the discussion is interesting, entirely misses the center of the controversy on this side of the pond: high-frequency trading, its utility in front-running, and the resulting distortions to equities markets.
Odd of him. Roast beef on the menu at Chilmark and Edgartown?
FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon |
CR - Thanks for posting the link to the Hope Now reports. You rock!
I really had a hard time going through the Hope Now data for Hawaii.
Because Foreclosures can be filed in court or out of court and sometimes never even enter the on-line land court records this was a surprise to me.
This kind of blows away even the numbers from the doom and gloomers. And it seems we are tracking "the mainland" with a good time lag. And that time lag seems to be compressing. Charting out these numbers is very sobering.
Here is what I have sent out to some friends who are looking at buying a house here in Hawaii in the next year or so. Please correct me if I'm handing out bad advice.
--
Well, as hard as it is to track Hawaii defaults and housing problems because
they can either file in court or out of court, when the Hope Now band of 27
thieves put out their latest report it really shows the on-coming wave of
problems. Take a look at the spreadsheet attached and compare the
delinquencies, with the started Foreclosures, the modified completed loans
to the Foreclosure starts and completions.
The only thing that makes sense to me is a lot of people going delinquent,
not qualifying for modifications, and the banks do not have the staffing or
proper paperwork to push through the paperwork for foreclosures yet. And
even then I really wonder about the re-default rate on these modifications
if housing prices continue to drop.
I attached the overview and the state data PDF's just to see if anyone can
come to a better conclusion.
So, as I have been saying, the cracks have formed for the last two years but
nothing really fell, I think that is about to change quickly. I think banks
will start to take more notice now that people are being shot in the homes
they are holding in foreclosure.
Hope Now, Hawaii data. (No hope, nope).
Type Q12007 Q22007 Q32007 Q42007 Q12008 Q22008 Q32008 Q42008 Q12009 Q22009
Delinquencies 877 969 1,348 1,772 2,447 2,823 4,175 4,893 6,536 6,880
Prime 370 391 508 735 1,071 1,231 2,164 2,597 3,762 4,015
Subprime 507 579 840 1,037 1,376 1,592 2,011 2,297 2,775 2,865
F_Starts 217 260 386 454 836 998 1,324 1,401 1,937 2,329
F_Compl 44 50 82 82 105 210 318 246 301 367
Mods_comp 14 27 36 95 197 322 495 560 878 650
burnside,
It's real simple. Tax financial transactions at (10,000/T) where T is seconds.
Rob, that's beaoootiful.
On the:
For more hard-pressed Americans, a campsite is home | csmonitor.com
Just a little background, as a kid I was homeless with my mother and siblings for around a year, and we did have to move from camp site to camp site, to a friends back yard, and have friends reserve camp sites for us because there were caps on how long some one could stay in a camp site, and how many days the could reserve.
Looking back it was the worst of times and it was the best of times. You learn very quickly who is a friend and who is not, you also start to see people as they really are.
The down side now days is, tolerance for homeless is much lower due to the extreme drugs and related violence from some homeless. Most of the parks and camp sites I remember have been closed, and police are pushed by the local communities to move out the homeless.
There will be a real problem with violent predators on the homeless as more people who have no idea how bad it is or how to defend themselves are pushed into the hunting grounds.
At least now the mainland States are no longer giving them a one way ticket here. Thank God for high fuel cost and it's cheaper to ship them to Mexico.
Sorry all, trying to catch up with everything I could not comment on in read only mode.
HomeGnome -
Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- No other state comes close to Florida in defaulted municipal bonds.
LLiz must be asleep, or else she would have posted a:
"We're number one, uh hu, oh yea."
RE:
Frequently need an 'extinction event' to foster innovation.
Sorry that just flies in the face of the progress made since the black death for Western Society and globally since the last ice age.
Society does not need to be crushed to spark innovation, innovation needs to be nurtured and chased after.
Our current life style and educational system does not value or foster innovation. And when it happens it is more often crushed and buried, but in time it filters through. And the ones who manage to do it get pretty damm rich on the curve and usually become "angles" for others who usually fail on the curve.
At times I think the de-constructionist have returned to tear down everything and hope to rebuild better, but then they learn to late they have destroyed their foundation for existing. Some people would say its "spite/hate" speech re-invented and adjusted to counter political correctness and co-op it.
homedad43 --
So whatever you think your house value is, just deduct $43K from it.
My current rat trap is valued at 300K, I bought it 99K, does that mean I should adjust my net worth entry down to 60K, (Inflation adjusted minus depreciation?)
OK, while its may still be posted.
Rush - Time stand still.
YouTube - RUSH Time Stand Still
Just because it costs all of us $43k for each extra home sale doesn't mean all houses are worth $43k less without the subsidy.
If anything we have to think about ho much we are saving and generating. We are saving by not having to shell out for even higher unemployment and we are generating by not having to reassess for lower property tax revenues.
Just another little to wake people up, while I try to go to sleep.
This actually may be on topic
YouTube - Rush-Big Money
OT, but something for you "peak oil" people. Yesterday the FT had an article about Brazil's oil industry and the nightmare caused by the recent huge oil discoveries. The paper quoted an analyst as saying that Brazil's potential reserves are between 60 and 100 billion barrels of oil equivalent. That's almost OPEC size.
Disclaimer: an oil well is a hole in the ground owned by liar.
I'm still looking at all the unfunded liabilities plus the deficit and thinking it may be around 500K, really screws up my net-un-worth calculations.
Have I lost touch with reality, or is not a house/home worth only what a greater fool will pay for it?
I got my place at a steal, only to see it go up in valuation 3.5X, and all I could
do was laugh.
I did not even think of selling because every where else was overpriced by 4.5X+, and I have too much junk to live on a boat, every where else was more than my mortgage+ bills.
Late 2007 I decided the best return I could get was to cash out some from the stock market and pay off my mortgage. I was early, but the return is pretty damm good even today. Now if only I could keep my maintenance fees from sky rocketing.
traderwalt -
Link?
Kauai Kahuna, Here's the FT link:
FT.com / UK - Brazil sets rules on exploiting vast oil reserves
The definition was provided by a Harvard Law grad turned oil lease broker who made three sons-in-law millionaires trading oil leases for them.
I'll try to get to the library today to update proven reserves data.
Traderwalt,
You have to understand that more new oil has been discovered and nearly everywhere than the peakenese have claimed was even possible to exist. With the recent dip in the economy world proven reserves are back to their historic norms. Peak oil and global warming are excuses for would be social engineering efforts.
petroleumworld has the article on Brazil.
traderwalt -
Thanks, I had just found it doing a search, I don't go to the FT site that much.
Nice information. More money, more corruption, either they have to get used to it or slow down.
Personally, I think India and Brazil are mind blowing, and Brazil is not at a consent war on their boarders, unless you count the Amazon tribes who just don't like trespassers.
As to peak oil, the findings may match growth and demand, but the cost of retrieving is increasing, almost a perfect dance with technologies to make it possible. I know I'm not saying anything new here, but it goes back to the simple demand and supply, and the speculators love it.
Change you can believe in!
Besides the immediate dollar cost to the rest of us chumps, another generation is evermore used to looking to the government teat for sustenance. Wall Street throwing government crumbs to the masses while GS and friends keep the bulk of it. Crisis and leviathan and crisis and...
Yep, Rob Dog. Also new technology gets more oil out of a well than ever before. Consequently the "tail" of the decline in production from world wide oil depletion is "fatter"; that is, the decline occurs more slowly than some expect. But sadly, energy use world wide will probably keep increasing sharply. The demand for carbon based energy sources will probably remain high.
It would be nice to suck off of the ever flowing teat's of big Government, oh wait, I'm a Government contractor. Yea, keep that mommie juice coming. Baby needs a single family McMansion!
Peak oil and global warming are excuses for would be social engineering efforts.
Peak oil is a playground for speculators, while global warming as been so co-opted I don't trust any data sets any more. I feel much better hoping that it is Earth's way of curing it's parasite infection called humanity. Just like a fever to a cold / flu.
And there's a new elephant in the room for the hapless peakense. Turns out that if you leave a depleted field alone for a few years it "refills" somehow. Not mere pumping issues but more oil.
Kauai_Kahuna,
I enjoy the tone and content of wattsupwiththat.com for the discussion of AGW. I also love the related sight surfacestations.org for the absolute joy of seeing the source data the warmists use so throughly discredited.
I wish the government would spend more money on developing 'cleaner" nuclear power. Apparently the technology for policing the plutonium from breeder reactors is pretty good. Predictions of terrorists seizing reprocessed nuclear fuel that is equivalent to weapons grade stuff haven't happened yet, and you just know terrorists have tried to get it. Breeder reactors burn or use the spent fuel from current reactors in use here in America, I believe. In doing so, they produce a lot more energy than they use.
Rob Dawg -
Turns out that if you leave a depleted field alone for a few years it "refills" somehow. Not mere pumping issues but more oil.
Diffusion, I love it as it allows maximum efficiency. The long term question is future demand and replacement. We have ton's of coal, Nat Gas, and we can power the planet with nuclear power for a while until Fusion can be worked out.
The question is how to get from here to there without being scalped by the politicians, Wall Street, and speculators?
wattsupwiththat - Thanks, Book marked it, tired of thinking and dreaming of dreaming right now.
traderwalt -
They can buy it from Russia, Iran, India, N. Korea, why bother wasting time to steal it here? Hell, maybe even France, etc.
There are many things that can be used as WMD's, and I'm just glad they have not found their way here since 9/11.
Just in case you have any sense of security, forget about it.
I'm just glad fate has been kind to us so far.
It is late and I need to get a little sack time. goodnight/ good mourning / and have a great night all depending on your time zones.
whew!
Kauai_Kahuna, As you point out, the weapons grade stuff should be available form Russia, etc., but apparently it isn't. Any problem with nuclear fuels is really bad for business, among other things. If you are not a responsible world citizen, you will probably encounter trouble. 'Just ask the Iranians and the Israelis.
Does anybody know--do the analysts/experts/seniorcontributors/yadayadayada get paid anything? I mean, they do sometimes tip their hands and take the party line.
Anybody?
Calling bullsh!t on that kids...link please. Here is how that has been wokring out for the USA oil fields - see how the oil is coming out faster based on this mechanism?
Natural Gas and Petroleum Navigator Error Page
.
Oilfields.Always.Go.Into.Decline.
Start with "Facing the Hard Truths About Energy"
National Petroleum Council: Facing the Hard Truths About Energy
energyecon,
You are willing to admit that US oil fields have extracted more oil since 1975 than was proven to exist in 1975 and we still have as many years reserves as we did then?
From a paper at the link you so often reference:
Abstract: Large volumes of technically recoverable, domestic oil resources—estimated at 400 billion barrels—remain undeveloped and are yet to be discovered, from undeveloped remaining oil in place of over a trillion barrels. This resource includes undiscovered oil, stranded light oil amenable to CO2-EOR technologies, unconventional oil (deep heavy oil and oil sands), and new petroleum concepts, such as residual oil in reservoir transition zones.
And now I have the P.O.T.U.S. coming on the Bubble tube giving me advice that I should wash my hands every time I sneeze, and that I should sneeze into my hands or elbow so I do not spread germs?
Thank you Mr. President, but I already now how to wipe my own @#$%&!, I have been doing it since I was 5...I am now 42, imagine that I have made it this far without your vast knowledge......amazing!!!!!
Is this really what we as a collective have come to? Pelosi, Frank, Obama...Reid..Dodd..Sickening really, Just sickening.
Energycon, the point is that the decline is occurring slower than some expected because of better tertiary recovery techniques. I believe this trend is more apparent from worldwide recovery statistics. I'll try to get data later today. And, yeah, the fields are played out in many areas of the lower 48 states and may skew the data you posted.
My youngest daughter was asking me "where are the fire works for celebrating the ending recession" I told her the fire works are under the mattress, don't worry.
Rob,
Actually read that paper, it is all saying the low hanging fruit has largely been picked (the easy, cheap oil has mostly been found and developed. You are continually engaged in an intellectually dishonest exercise when you disparage the concept of peak oil as being about 'running out' of oil. It is not. It is about the rate of extraction, period.
.
The level of reserves in the USA has peaked and gone down - todays level of reserves is the same as about 1945, not 1975:
Natural Gas and Petroleum Navigator Error Page
.
READ the report Dawg, rather than trying to cherry pick a quote you think makes your case but does not.
traderwalt,
Wish it were so but it isn't - the IEA (the international outfit, not the US EIA) last year did a bottoms up survey of the world's largest oil fields for the first time and found a faster decline than that previously assumed (6.7% instead of about 4.5% IIRC). From their presser:
.
The prospect of accelerating declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertainties. The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.
IEA Press Releases
O/T FDIC is hiring in Jackson, MS. Is Mississippi going to join the BFF soon ?
I know you are certain about what you are saying and there's no point in trying to change your mind but do at least read what I write not what you think I am writing. Yes, we have the same number of barralls of proven reserves as the mid 1940s but we also have the same number of years at current extraction rates as we had in the mid 1970s. It's a really cheap shot to say i haven't read the papers. I read them when they came out. Oh, and that "cherrypick?" It was the abstract summary of topic 19. Surely you didn't mean to accuse them of cherrypicking.
The peakenese have been wrong for a century and a half. Someday they'll be right. Maybe 2050 but that doesn't mean they deserve any credence now.
Kauai:
Valuation at what you suggest makes sense.
It's meaningless numbers, anyways.
As to this stuff keeping me up at night, not so much anymore. I still spend time considering things but the combination of multiple children + activities + extremely checkered medical history (like thinking you're truly going to die on more than one occasion) has managed to bring things into perspective.
If I can survive this other stuff, I'll survive this as well.
O/T FDIC is hiring in Jackson, MS. Is Mississippi going to join the BFF soon ?
No, they just need more translators for their northern employees.
How is it that the ratio of production to reserves is the same as the '70's when reserves are at the level of the '40's?
.
The.oil.comes.out.slower.
.
Read it.
Doubt they have many MS banks to resolve, but I bet the banks have put a bunch of money into the gulf coast developments, and they will have to manage those if a buyer can't be found.
Is this thread related to the press release from BP that they found a 3 billion barrel reserve in the Gulf of Mexico - in this morning's Bloomberg
intellectually dishonest, Dawg. The concept of peak oil as it is actually denoted rather than the meaning you would ascribe to it came out of the work of M. King Hubbert and work he did in the 1950's.
.
Based on his theory, he presented a paper to the 1956 meeting of the American Petroleum Institute in San Antonio, Texas, which predicted that overall petroleum production would peak in the United States between the late 1960s and the early 1970s.[4]
M. King Hubbert
.
Revisiting the peak production rate from the USA:
Natural Gas and Petroleum Navigator Error Page
.
Peak oil is about rate Dawg. Care to revise your timeline?
No, and best to all today. Reference the rate curve for the USA posted above.
20 years ago a friend from Jackson told me they have special laws in Jackson. He said that guys were married only within 50 mile radius of their homes. Outside that radius, they weren't married. Maybe the FDIC has special rules in Jackson too...
Thank you Mr. President, but I already now how to wipe my own @#$%&!, I have been doing it since I was 5...I am now 42, imagine that I have made it this far without your vast knowledge......amazing!!!!!
Relax man, he was only speaking to the typical Brobama supporter and voter.
"20 years ago a friend from Jackson told me they have special laws in Jackson. He said that guys were married only within 50 mile radius of their homes. Outside that radius, they weren't married. Maybe the FDIC has special rules in Jackson too..."
The rule isn't hard and fast. 25 miles in some areas.
I've got to tell you, Mississippi has beautiful women. A drive through Oxford, MS on a weekend and your jaw will drop.
Terry,
There's been a spate of really huge discoveries lately. BPs 3b in the Gulf. The second field further off Rio. Cantrell II. When peak oil comes, and it will come we may have a few as 75 years to wean ourselves off the stuff.
You are quite right this is not a tax cut for the rich- and that is its sole redeeming virtue. But your thinking is also reflective of the general Republican smoke and mirrors game- we will give a tiny tax cut to the hoi polloi which will then provide a cover for giving a gigantic cut to the wealthy- in this case helping prop up property prices for those own toxic assets. Those are the prime beneficiaries of the tax incentive.
I can think of many other uses of $16Bn targeted directly towards the needs of those that you appear so concerned about. Social Services are being eviscerated in virtually every state. This money could have been used to for that purpose with exactly the same if not more stimulative effect.
nova - LOL! CR posted an updated Problem Bank list on Aug 28 and there's nota single MS bank there. Which could mean either there is no public C&D, action order, or presser about a MS bank; or the table needs another column or annex titled "Misc and Suspected Sh!tpiles (Undisclosed)". Could be a large section.
C
when i went to bed,
was ruling china. when i awoke, i was surprised to see that 
had handed kermie his head. us futures are flat.
1-US commodities rattled by China derivatives stance
WRAPUP 1-US commodities rattled by China derivatives stance
| Reuters
WTF? Depends when you woke up and where the bruising is...
Kermit still rules all listed China exchanges except Shenzhen Bs. J and HK bloodied, ASX down, Kospi moderate down.
Yerp futures well elmo, US flat elmo tinge only.
C
1-US commodities rattled by China derivatives stance
D-bank buying out their double long oil can't be helping either.
Athens stock exchange bombed, AFP: Bomb hits Athens stock exchange
That could never happen in New York, Chicago, or London, right?
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) -- The University of North Carolina system is reducing its workforce to meet a statewide budget crisis.
UNC President Erskine Bowles said Monday after a meeting with university chancellors that the roughly 900 job cuts will be mostly administrative.
University spokeswoman Joni Worthington said the positions represent roughly 6 percent of the 16-school system's $3 billion budget. A total of $171 million has been cut to meet the state's budget shortfall.
Worthington said some jobs were eliminated during the spring. Others are vacant positions that will not be filled.
Souvlaki futures tank.
Long retsina strategic reserve holdings LLC.
C
“In August, construction employment dropped 73,000. This was
its thirty-first consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction
jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,562,000."
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/PDF/FINAL_Release_August_09.pdf
Nonfarm Private Employment Highlights – August Report:
• Total employment: -298,000
• Small businesses* -122,000
• Medium businesses** -116,000
• Large businesses*** -60,000
• Goods-producing sector: -152,000
• Service-providing sector: -146,000
Addendum:
• Manufacturing industry: -74,000
* Small businesses represent payrolls with 1-49 employees
** Medium businesses represent payrolls with 50-499 employees
*** Large businesses represent payrolls with more than 499 employees
Hi CR,
This calculation overstates the actual costs to taxpayers. In almost every model I can think of, a first-time homebuyer has a higher marginal propensity to consume than the average person, because (a) they use up a lot of their liquidity in the purchase and (b) they enter a state of the world with complementarities in consumption (i.e. they have to buy all the crap for their house). Putting money in their hands is likely to churn it through the system with much higher results than other kinds of tax expenditure. That churn should feed back into the economy during the slump, reducing the direct cost calculation you present by the increased income it produces. Just saying...
Obviously, there are many assumptions built into this, but I thought it was worth mentioning...
Best,
Kurt
man. Then what in hell am I looking at? I'll flip back to bloomberg when I get back online and suck down another cup of
to get the brain started.
Good news about asia, then.
Total ICI mutual fund flows for the week of 8/19.
Domestic equity funds -924 million
Foreign equity funds 775 million
Total equity -150 million
Total Bond 9,093 million
Total money market 3,577 million
Nope, J6P not coming back to U.S. equities.
Given the Institutional Risk Analyst has over 2,300 of the banks rated "D" or "F" it would be a huge list - 1 of every 4 banks
Here's some choice stuff from the Obama maching:
http://www.redstate.com/california_yankee/files/2009/09/2phone-calls.jpg
The Obama memo claims 75% of American support the "Public Plan", but It's more likely that the converse is true:
24% Say Democrats Should Pass Health Care Reform Without GOP Votes - Rasmussen Reports™
They also seem much more concerned with "Right Wing Terrorist" than with America's real enemies.
And instead you would tax.....what, exactly?
We can argue-strike that-discuss the optimal tax level, if you like, but unless you have one of those mythical ponies you want to donate to gub'ment, we have to tax something.........
Citation, please.......
Data, please.....
NAR's "existing home sales" includes incremental boost to new home sales as well?
NAHB estimates incremental increase in home sales to FTHBs is 383,000, not NAR's 350,000.
So if you are getting accurate "estimated" cost per home sold, don't you have to add the 33k (more) new homes sold during the tax credit period? thanks for clarification.