Nemo's Monkey?

The "stress tests" were a freaking joke!

I paid off my CC in 2002 and haven't carried a balance since.

..."chargeoffs might increase some more."

Well, I guess, CR, you're the guy with the data and experience, so punting the boat out like that is probably capturing a plausible scenario.

C

This was pigged:

Did anyone make any progress on investigating the validity of the 19% drop in food consumption?
1. Is that in dollars? Euros? or is it by weight or by volume?
2. What's the time period involve?
3. Is that worldwide or US?
4. Is that extrapolated from a narrow study by some PhD, or is it from a federal agency survey? Margins of Errors?

So many questions....

from the AP biz desk:

"Q: What will it take to turn the banking industry around?

A: Not much other than time, experts say."

Ah, Japan 1994... 'cause you and me, we know, we've got nothing but time. And time won't give me time.

Charge offs are going higher just as the UE rate will.

I have a good mind to stop paying my debts! OOPPS! that wont' work I'm my own bank!

Re; Charge-offs

Last time I checked..months ago,...standard bank policy was still pursue credit cardholders for balances that had been charged off. It was a booming cottage industry to sell the rights to pursue these balances to 3rd parties who operate at the edge of laws on consumer harrassment....and who agree to split whatever they can get via liens and garnishments, etc, with the credit card company.

I think the delayed new credit card regs are suppose to mildly impact this once they go into effect in 2010?

Re: New cc regs.

I wonder what the impact of the regs will be?

Are some of these folks who defaulted going to be able to get a new cc?
and if so, at what interest rate/ credit line?

Very interesting 9th Circuit En Banc opinion of what the feds can do. or not do, when seizing computers or other digital evidence.

It changes "Plain sight" and if the gov forensics people find anything that was not covered by the warrant then they can not tell the invesitigators it exists.

"The government’s search protocol must be designed to uncover only the
information for which it has probable cause, and only that information may
be examined by the case agents"

They like to seize, fish, and then build the case.

http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2009/08/26/05-10067eb.pdf

who was it here that said if the market's open, that means natgas is tanking.

that would be me....macro-econ smartypants, functionally retarded investor

Re: that would be me....macro-econ smartypants, functionally retarded investor

HA!!! too funny.

"functionally retarded investor "

nat gas will be a great long-term hold at some point. the nice thing is that these low prices, if sustained, really help encourage infrastructure creation around the product.

hack-

agreed, like i said, my analysis and gut are always right

...but my timing is THE WORST...always way early

speaking of which, i am itching to buy CAF today, which (obviously) means china has only just begun to tank

I've generally been the same as an investor, and have been like a moth to light with nat gas for quite some time. But I'll happily double down if we see the low 2s. Nat gas really should be the best commodity to hold, even if you don't like the larger asset class.

I work in the payments industry and for time being, the answer will be no. The banks so far have been rushing to close dormant accounts, as they are all under pressure to raise capital and having a dormant account with an available line of credit on the books ties up some of that precious capital. Plus there is a tendency for cardholders to run up balances rapidly if they suffer an loss of a job, etc., so the banks have every incentive to close inactive accounts. The next step will be cutting credit lines, and adding fees, to avoid the advance notice regulations that go into effect in February. All the way along the line, the banks will be closing accounts based on late payments and eliminating rebates and rewards programs.

It used to be the credit card was the only device the banks had to bring in payments business - now with prepaid cards, they can still have transaction volume without the credit risks (but lower porift margins).

Are they treating charge offs as they are foreclosures? Keeping them on their books longer to improve their positions on paper

Every post on CC charge-offs reminds me of Capital 1 and how p'd off I was to hear they had been designated one of the 19 TBTFs. I've commented previously on the apparently predatory clauses in the endless unsolicited mail I've received from them. Don't think I've passed on another part of the story, which is their chief risk dude came to talk to a bunch of us a while back, and while acknowledging some uncertainties and market turbulence, was full of bull about prospects and business model. Went into it in fairly numbing shillworthy detail. Anyhow, he had the temerity to warble about policy and legislative risks etc. No one in the meeting was impolitic enough to ask him about the massive policy and rent advantage the b@stards had received and which were fueling their bottom line and bonuses.

Ah, the new normal. Gotta love it. Just be too big not to get your due and rightful Wheres MY pony?...

C

nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 1:56 pm

They like to seize, fish, and then build the case.

Thanks for the link!

It will be very unpopular with the police. Seize, fish and then charge is all they know how to do since the 4th amendment was repealed. I imagine we'll hear how it'll cause the a mushroom cloud over an American city and benefit only baby rapers and narco-terrorists before long.

Thanks Terry.
Do you have a feel for what % of biz is in active credit card $ volumes vs. prepaid card $ volumes? I'm wildly guessing it's like a 20:1 ratio.
The latter is essentially a "Pay-As-You-Go" model.
That's (sadly) wildly incompatible with what retailing, hospitality, etc, needs in monthly consumer spending volumes to make their pro formas work; only access to credit wil make those pro formas work.

Took me over two years and multiple phone calls to close a Chase acct.
And I still get the 'checks' in the mail from time to time...

Credit volumes and transactions have been dropping like a rock. Debit transaction volumen has grown nicely, but ticket sizes have dropped. As MasterCard said recently, they expect prepaid to exceed credit volumes in the next few years.

chief risk dude

---this begs to be someones' handle...
Smile

I believe the govt has shown that its main remedy for all of these problems is money printing and stimulus, which is essentially debt. And one of the few ways for most people to protect and potentially prosper from this is by investing in those assets that should rise from all the money printing, such as gold and other commodities. Here is a good discussion the -- link deleted by kcoop -- and the govt's policies.

With CC interest rates climbing for all, but especially for those considered higher risk, even 10%/year chargeoffs are largely covered by the other 90% paying 15-30% interest. This when the banks are borrowing at < 5%.

Keep an eye on the de-leveraging end of this process. Eventually chargeoffs will drop as employment stabilizes (and the remaining customers will want to keep their CCs in good standing). Now that CC rates are indexed to a reference such as prime rate (which is historically low) rates will tend to go up at the same time that chargeoffs improve. Could be a windfall for the lenders.

And I still get the 'checks' in the mail from time to time...

Like a good geek, I read all the fine print on the Chase Accts: They reserve the right to send you those promos; usage of any promo check constitutes reactivation of the accct.
And that goes also..maybe... even for any vendor (gym membership fee, etc) u authorized to do an automatic pmt from said account unless u can show in writing where u followed the vendor's procedures to cease auto pmts from the credit card.

People can pay their credit cards because they are living rent free from not paying their mortgages.

Simple as that.

If a creditor is hassling you, take a look at the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act; understanding this might help. (Wikipedia link)

MasterCard said recently, they expect prepaid to exceed credit volumes in the next few years.
Thanks.
I'll have to investigate that position by MasterCard. A major shift by US households to Pay-As-You-Go (debit cards, prepaid credit, cash) in dollar volumes is actually a good thing for a sustainable financial system....but I dont see where US wage & salary growth will ever close the spending gap fueled by access to credit. Ergo, is consumer spending going to drop massively?

VISA does greater volume than MC; will be interesting if they're making such claims.
And Im talking strictly domestic US; I already know that overseas debit/prepaid activity is enriching MC and VISA.

I have the numbers somewhere - I represent one of the payment trade associations. OT: Credit lines dry up for auto dealers - Aug. 31, 2009

Here is some data from the Visa earnings call a few weeks back: Highlights from the Visa Quarterly Earnings Call - Prepaid

There was a lot of pissin'-and-moanin' about boomers yesterday. Now here's an interesting chart from Mish:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/Spg3Jyo-RVI/AAAAAAAAGvw/xnwGB8TFr-k/s1600-h/annual+income+by+generation.png
Looks like GenX is doing okay. GenY is behind, but probably due to their work ethic-

I took a closer look at the graphic that goes along with
Personal Finance: Good news and bad on credit card reforms - Sacramento Business, Housing Market News | Sacramento Bee

and came to a realization. This graphic, based on TransUnion data, indicates that average CC debt has been essentially flat during the last year. BUT, if there have been 10% chargeoff in the last year, that means the CC debt for those who haven't bailed has, on average, increased by 10% over the last year.

Thanks Terry., am exploring the links.

I imagine CR will be intrigued by such shifts as well.
The implications of "Pay-As-You-Go" en masse by US households are enormous; will greatly impact many sectors that are dependent on debt-enabled households living far far beyond their means ...and impact the Impulse-Buys that marketing careers so depend on.

As a consumer, why go Visa pre-pay as you go instead of just Debit ?? Or is that considered the same thing since my Debit card has a MC logo on it ??

Nice little blurb on finance.yahoo.com

"That dichotomy comes amid news from Reuters that famed analyst Dick Bove said that U.S. bank earnings will be dismal for remainder of this year, with continued losses for regional banks into early 2010."

Are they talking about the famed banking analyst who totally blew his banking calls for all of 2008? Revisionism is alive and well on Wall Street and MSM.

GenY is behind, but probably due to their work ethic

Rant

"I'll have to investigate that position by MasterCard. A major shift by US households to Pay-As-You-Go (debit cards, prepaid credit, cash) in dollar volumes is actually a good thing for a sustainable financial system....but I dont see where US wage & salary growth will ever close the spending gap fueled by access to credit. Ergo, is consumer spending going to drop massively?"

Pay as you go is rather deflationary. Of course it's being counter-balanced by trillions in gubbmint cheese.

Re: The implications of "Pay-As-You-Go" en masse by US households are enormous

This would also prove (or disprove) the talk about a "new savings mentality" amongst the population. I've always been of the opinion that there is no "new savings mentality", only fear showing up as reduced spending.

But, if people actually started using pre-paid cards en-mass, that would be significant. Personally, I've never heard anybody at work mention these things (and most of the people I work with are up-to-their-eyeballs in debt).

RATM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 2:34 pm

GenY is behind, but probably due to their work ethic
Rant

Sorry; forgot the Wink

I generally put as much stock in "self-reporting" of incomes as I do on the accuracy of self-reporting by guys of certain body-part sizes.
LOL.

I generally put as much stock in "self-reporting" of incomes as I do on the accuracy of self-reporting by guys of certain body-part sizes.
LOL.

I have the largest big toe of anyone in this forum.

Prepaid is a subset of debit - to have a debit card, you have to have a bank account. Close to 100 million are underbanked or unbanked. Plus, debit cards lead to overdrafts (pending current law changes) - prepaid reduces the overdraft fee risk substantially.

Avl Dao (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 2:38 pm

I generally put as much stock in "self-reporting" of incomes as I do on the accuracy of self-reporting by guys of certain body-part sizes.
LOL.

Hey! I always tell the truth......................about my income anyway Wink

It ain't easy.... being green....

"This would also prove (or disprove) the talk about a "new savings mentality"

This is the kind of conventional wisdom which could only emerge among folks in the 99th income percentile who spend their time primarily with other folks in the 99th income percentile. You don’t have to look at the data (mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures, credit card defaults, bankruptcies) all that hard to see a very different picture. In fact, it is almost certainly true that the savings rate for 99% of the US population is negative.

Guest Post: “The Savings Rate Has Recovered…if You Ignore the Bottom 99%” « naked capitalism 

POIC, "Pay-As-You-Go" is, IMO, a key puzzle piece to a more sustainable financial sytem HOWEVER...the transition would be incredibly destructive to many pro formas, business plans, headcounts & payrolls, in the US economy.
I don't see it happenning yet despite all the benefits it brings.
In essence, it takes America back to circa 1972 in terms of shopping & spending behavior (but not in terms of the inflation of the early 70s that we had ecven prior to the 1973 Oil Shock).
Installment buying was also a version of pay-as-u-go.

Eric, how much green do you think we end?

terry: how does prepaid show up to the merchant (i.e. credit, debit, or its own category)?

Debit - that is a function of the Wal-Mart settlement of several years ago. You can run it as signature debit or PIN

CR the stress test had the loss assumption of 9.1% over a two year period or eight quarters....we have
had already two quarters and the chargeoffs have been no where near the assumptions.In fact the big
four (CIti ,JP,BAC.Wells) are 23 billion under the loss assumptions.Each quarter that goes by the
differential will get greater unless we see greater weakness in the economy but you yourself have
said Jobless Claims have peaked. SO.....when you keep quoting the stress test you really need to
talk about the loss assumptions not the Macro assumptions because it is the losses that count....

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup said Monday that it sold $1.3 billion in credit card assets as the bank tries to reorganize itself in the wake of government bailouts that have left it roughly a third owned by taxpayers. Terms of the deals and the acquirer weren't disclosed. Citi said it sold its entire ownership interest in three North American partner credit card portfolios representing approximately $1.3 billion in managed assets. The portfolios were part of Citi Holdings, which holds businesses that the bank is selling or restructuring. "The sale of these card portfolios is consistent with Citi's strategy to optimize the assets and businesses within Citi Holdings while working to generate long-term profitability and growth from Citicorp, which comprises its core franchise," the bank said in a statement. Citi will continue to service the card portfolios through the first half of 2010 at which time the acquirer will take on those responsibilities.

---As 33.3% owners(taxpayers); aren't we entitled to know the terms of this "deal"?

brodero, didnt the FASB rule relaxations render "loss assumptions" a bit meaningless...as in they dont have to be reported, booked or recognized nowadays in the manner they had to in the past?

Not about claims, it's about UE rate (U-6), duration of unemployment, exhaustion rate and the like...

Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 2:41 pm
This is the kind of conventional wisdom which could only emerge among folks in the 99th income percentile who spend their time primarily with other folks in the 99th income percentile. You don’t have to look at the data (mortgage delinquencies, foreclosures, credit card defaults, bankruptcies) all that hard to see a very different picture. In fact, it is almost certainly true that the savings rate for 99% of the US population is negative.

Nice link, asswipe-

probably selling receivables held by one of the off balance sheet entities that the new accounting regs will require to be brouhgt back on the balance sheet in January - will require the banks to add a bunch of capital

This is the kind of conventional wisdom which could only emerge among folks in the 99th income percentile who spend their time primarily with other folks in the 99th income percentile.
Eh, that's a bit harsh? Even by my rough-edged standards..LOL.
That meme of a 7% bump-up in savings has gathered as much steam as the lie...eh, I mean, "meme" about Green Shoots and a full recovery (except for those who aint got a job, right).
I do agree that the averaging in, of the hyper-wealthy, into the savings & debt data has really messed things up. Only lately has data emerged that looks at debt & savings by income decile or quintile.

The FED looked at the books....if you are conspiracy theorist then no numbers would convince you otherwise.....either you think BAC is going back to 5 or you believe will eventually it go to 40....

I do agree that the averaging in, of the hyper-wealthy, into the savings & debt data has really messed things up. Only lately has data emerged that looks at debt & savings by income decile or quintile.

I, personally, can't see how people sinking a larger portion of their disposable income into debt servicing is somehow a 'good news' story. This metric says nothing about the financial health of these people, only how much of their money is not going to consumption.

For all we know, they're buying less 'stuff', putting more money towards debt, and still ending up further in the hole.

From today's American Banker: " InBank of Oak Forest, Ill., went from well capitalized to insolvent in no time at all, and industry observers are pointing to the $209 million-asset bank as an extreme example of an aggressive regulatory approach to deteriorating credit quality."

Small banks have to play by a different set of rules than the TBTF banks

noob goldberg (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 2:56 pm
I, personally, can't see how people sinking a larger portion of their disposable income into debt servicing is somehow a 'good news' story. This metric says nothing about the financial health of these people, only how much of their money is not going to consumption.

I thought the meme was that they were actually saving, not just paying off debt. No?

The FED looked at the books....if you are conspiracy theorist then no numbers would convince you otherwise.....either you think BAC is going back to 5 or you believe will eventually it go to 40....

The losses and financial health of BAC has no bearing on the stock price. It doesn't take a conspiracy theorist to see that.

i'll take 40 ....you get 5...I've already spotted you 11 points....

avl dao,

Any links to data on debt by income decile or quintile besides the triennial survey would be golden...

Why is my bank paying me a little percentage on my checking account when I use my debit card if I will hit charge instead of debit? My thinking is they get to hold on to my money maybe 12 to 24 hrs longer or visa versa.

Re: I thought the meme was that they were actually saving, not just paying off debt. No?

I think you'll find that in the BIG macro economic world - which revolves around the magic of GDP - that "savings" is - basically means - "everything else" (that which they can't account for).

What was that whooshing sound as the pre-market opened at 3PM? Did the post-lunch pump aggravate Timmy's carpal tunnel problems?

Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top

"Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big shock this fall," said Biderman. "Companies and corporate insiders are signaling that the economy is in much worse shape than conventional wisdom believes."

Not sure who that was directed to; I myself am no conspiracy theorist. Geithner & Obama have been very candid & clear about their priorities and goals: 1) getting the major banks healthy again; 2) providing gov't stimulus and incentives to encourage greater private sector investment into US banks; 3) that credit (not hard work or talent) is the lifeblood of the American Economy.

In America, one doesnt need to hide much or lie anymore (poor Nixon, he was 3 decades too early); telling the truth publicly is sufficient cuz u can count on the media's and public's "cognitive dissonance" to kick in at the mention of anything they dont want to hear (they simply wont hear it).

It's like reading BLS press releases where they expressly give the adjusted (bogus algorithm'd) data and then expressly say "the actual number is" a mere 3 paragraphs later, knowing few will ever read that far or quote the "actual number".

Nonetheless, bank "losses" in 2009 are horribly under-reported under the relaxed FASB rules...even if BAC does mushroom to 40.

I'm pretty sure that a "charge" pays the bank some kick-back through Visa/MC.

Re: i'll take 40 ....you get 5...I've already spotted you 11 points....

It'll agree with YOUR number, but only because TPTB need BofA at 40 and will do anything to get it there, including giving it free money and allowing it to use brand-new accounting rules to ensure it "looks GREAT".

It's entirely different now.

(TPTB = The Powers That Be)

"I don't see it happenning yet despite all the benefits it brings."

Congress used to have a rule that any new spending had to include a method to pay for it by either cutting something else or raising revenue. Whatever happened to that?

PAYGO - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Oh, yeah..

The PAYGO statute expired at the end of 2002. After this Congress enacted President George W. Bush's proposed 2003 tax cuts (enacted as the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003), and the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act.[5] The White House acknowledged that the new Medicare prescription drug benefit plan would not meet the PAYGO requirements:

Issuing banks get paid interchange fees on both credit and debit - the fees are lower on debit (again, due the Wal-Mart settlement) and that is why some banks charge cardholders for PIN debit.

@energyecon Any links to data on debt by income decile or quintile besides the triennial survey would be golden...

Traci M. was one of the FRB staffers who prepared parts of the findings from the 2004-07. She released Changes in Family Finance from 2004 to 2007: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances where she gingerly took a stab at extrapolating the 2009 household conditions from the 07 data. Not very bold...but maybe a work in progress? One can hope.

Traci Mach Federal Reserve Board March 26, 2009 http://www.national-economists.org/gov/mach09.pdf

I think you'll find that in the BIG macro economic world - which revolves around the magic of GDP - that "savings" is - basically means - "everything else" (that which they can't account for).

Agreed. In good times, the savings rate does not adjust for changes in the value of capital, like stocks and homes. It also doesn't account for these changes during bad times, either.

(personal disposable income) - (personal consumption expenditure)

So, in good times, the value of your home and your 401k skyrockets and you spend more of your income on "stuff", which makes the savings rate look miserable. In bad times, when the value of the 401K and home plummet, you cut back and 'save' more, even though you're further in the hole.

True.
I ripped PayAsUGo from that whole Congressional debacle. I hope the stench wears off of PAYGO so that I can start using that...it's shorter to type.

" brodero (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:00 pm

* reply
* Ignore user

i'll take 40 ....you get 5...I've already spotted you 11 points...."

Is that you Dick Bovine posting here?

"I hope the stench wears off of PAYGO"

The stench? Because it leads to things like balanced budgets and sustainable, profitable growth?

"In America, one doesnt need to hide much or lie anymore (poor Nixon, he was 3 decades too early); telling the truth publicly is sufficient cuz u can count on the media's and public's "cognitive dissonance" to kick in at the mention of anything they dont want to hear (they simply wont hear it)."

I agree that this is so much of the problem. Clear cut assessments or judgments have succumbed to gray areas where any outcome or explanation can be rationalized and pretty much anything goes and is justifiable (within reason). There's always a carefully crafted rationale which obscures.

We'll get to PAYGO as soon as the FED stops handing out money.
What was that saying?
NO TAXATION WITHOUT REPRESENTATION.
and what is inflation but a hidden tax?

Why does a private CORPORATION get to spend "our" money?

energyecon, Im still reading this but CEPR may have some data by quintiles, etc, buried in here as well.

The Wealth of the Baby Boom Cohorts After the Collapse of the Housing Bubble
http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/baby-boomer-wealth-2009-02.pdf

Stop it, I can't breathe from laughing so hard....

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Responding to concerns from investors, a key accounting regulator on Monday proposed requiring financial institutions to disclose more information about how banks and other corporations value illiquid assets.

The Financial Accounting Standards Board proposed new transparency rules that match up with the agency's controversial April 2 measure that gives financial institutions and other corporations more flexibility in valuing illiquid mortgage assets that may have long-term value. See full story.

That guidance, which was approved after pressure from lawmakers on Capitol Hill, contributed to boosting bank operating profits by altering so called mark-to-market or "fair value" rules by allowing banks and their auditors to use "significant judgment" when valuing the illiquid assets such as toxic mortgage securities.

However, the new FASB disclosure proposal seeks to require corporations to provide a range of valuations for their most illiquid assets. The proposal seeks to have banks and corporations provide separate information for different classes of assets and liabilities based on risk.

FASB eyes more disclosure for illiquid assets - MarketWatch

shill (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:05 pm
"Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big shock this fall," said Biderman. "Companies and corporate insiders are signaling that the economy is in much worse shape than conventional wisdom believes."

Stop raining on the Green Shootss
ECONOMIC VIEW; An Echo Chamber Of Boom and Bust - NY Times
"What happened? Economic analysts often turn to indicators like employment, housing starts or retail sales as causes of a recovery, when in fact they are merely symptoms. For a fuller explanation, look beyond the traditional economic links and think of the world economy as driven by social epidemics, contagion of ideas and huge feedback loops that gradually change world views. These social epidemics can travel as swiftly as swine flu: both spread from person to person and can reach every corner of the world in short order.

As George Akerlof and I argue in our book, “Animal Spirits,” the business cycle is tied to feedback loops involving speculative price movements and other economic activity — and to the talk that these movements incite. "

Fundamentals are for losers Wink

@ HomeGnome
Why does a private CORPORATION get to spend "our" money?

Somewhere along the way, corporations were given rights & entitlements on par with citizens, not sure if it's in an amendment or what. Maybe it's covered in wiki. Often whatever rights we have, they have as well.

I enjoyed that back in Feb. Take out the top quintile, restate the median, and the real picture emerges.

Do people still call and argue for a lower interest rate on their cards anymore?

Chase upped my rate because of loses on other accounts, yada yada yada. I have a small balance and I don't know whether to do a transfer or argue for a rate reduction. I could just pay it off but it would take my super liqid saving to under 7k and I really like having that cushion in case shtf.

Cinco, who needs "animal spirits" arguments when you already have Astrology and Voodoo.

More reality from Kunstler..

End of Summer Blues - Clusterfuck Nation

Sorry Cinco just spreading the word m8

Ouch. What a surprise that Boomers in aggregate are not big fans of saving.

1) The median household with a person between the ages of 45 to 54 saw its net worth fall by more
than 45 percent between 2004 and 2009, from $172,400 in 2004 to just $94,200 in 2009 (all amounts
are in 2009 dollars). If the median late baby boomer household took all of the wealth they had
accumulated during their lifetime, they would still owe approximately 45 percent of the price of a
typical house1 and have no other assets whatsoever.2

2) The situation for early baby boomers is somewhat worse. The median household with a person
between the ages of 55 and 64 saw its wealth fall by almost 50 percent from $315,400 in 2004 to
$159,800 in 2009. This net worth would be sufficient to allow these households, who are at the peak
ages for wealth accumulation, to cover approximately 90 percent of the cost of the typical house, if
they had no other assets.

3) As a result of the plunge in house prices, many baby boomers now have little or no equity in their
home. According to our calculations, of those who own their primary residence, nearly 30 percent of
households headed by someone between the ages of 45 to 54 will need to bring money to their
closing (to cover their mortgage and transactions costs) if they were to sell their home. More than 15
percent of the early baby boomers, people between the ages of 55 and 64, will need to bring money
to a closing when they sell their home.

you forgot economics- to me it is nothing more than modern day astrology.

I could just pay it off but it would take my super liqid saving to under 7k and

I vote to pay it. Don't give those clowns more money in interest.

Re: u can count on the media's and public's "cognitive dissonance"

However, the media and the public really TRUELY want to BELIEVE their nobility, too. This is so much part of the REAL Merican culture that it also distorts everything. Oh sure, you can count on the dumbass believers in each of THEIR political Parties living in fear of the OTHER side, but the NYT doesn't just gush about the TARP "working for the American taxpayer" because of the propaganda effect, they (the people that work for the NYT) really REALLY REALLY want it to work, so that THEIR nobility is vindicated, and its authority shown to be righteous.

REAL Mericans LOVE their nobilty.

Avl Dao (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:19 pm

energyecon, Im still reading this but CEPR may have some data by quintiles, etc, buried in here as well.

The Wealth of the Baby Boom Cohorts After the Collapse of the Housing Bubble
http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/baby-boomer-wealth-2009-02.pdf

So, it seems that the boomers didn't sell off their homes to unsuspecting X'ers and leave them holding the bag. Hoocoodanode Wink

I could just pay it off but it would take my super liqid saving to under 7k and I really like having that cushion in case shtf.

You have cash around, and you're not paying off a credit card with a high rate?

Do people still call and argue for a lower interest rate on their cards anymore?

We do occasionally, but the CC companies have been less amenable in the past 12 months to lowering rates, instead they want to "upgrade" your account to silver/platinum/black/whatever new level with a lower short term rate which we don't want, so we started closing accounts instead.

If this is the end of the bad news then what you are saying is that our post-credit bust recovery will be different than every other credit-bust that has occurred in the last 100 years world-wide. I'll take the other side of that bet.

Credit busts and their aftermath follow some very well worn steps. They take decades and not 2 years to recover from. All you need to do is read between the lines of the last few FOMC statements and the last months worth of talks by various Treasury/FED officials and it's all there in plain sight.

state those numbers without the top quintile

shill (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:23 pm
Sorry Cinco just spreading the word m8

Why the apology!?

yep this was the report I read last March

'These calculations imply that, as a result of the collapse of the housing bubble, millions of middle
class homeowners still have little or no equity even after they have been homeowners for several
decades. These households will be in the same situation as first-time homebuyers, forced to struggle
to find the money needed to put up a down payment for a new home. This will make it especially
difficult for many baby boomers to leave their current homes and buy housing that might be more
suitable for their retirement.

Finally, the projections show that for both age groups, the renters within each wealth quintile in
2004 will have more wealth in 2009 than homeowners in all three scenarios. In the second and third
scenarios, renters will have dramatically more wealth in 2009 than homeowners who started in the
same wealth quintile. Homeownership is not everywhere and always an effective way to accumulate
wealth. For those who owned a home in the last few years, the collapse of the housing bubble led to
the destruction of much or all of their wealth.'

So this is where the term Baby Gloomers came from right?

@Black Halo
The stench? Because it leads to things like balanced budgets and sustainable, profitable growth?

No, the stench is associated with the gutless manner Congress backed away from PAYGO. I think PAYGO is a key to sustainable budgetary practices at the federal level, just as PayAsYouGo by households creates sustainable family budgets rather than mountains of debt from shopping and living beynd ones means. It also would create pressure that focuses attention on why nominal US wages are not keeping pace....which focuses badly needed attention on all manner of unsustainable economic policies and memes.

supreme court decision back in the late 1800's I believe.

Avl Dao (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:23 pm

Cinco, who needs "animal spirits" arguments when you already have Astrology and Voodoo.

Remember, Wink = joking!

I don't want to kill the Green shoots! hahah!

We could always forecast with the duck droppings, Cinco.
Wink

If they die just spray paint them!

@Deflationary
So this is where the term Baby Gloomers came from right?
That's why re-inflating the housing bubble is the 2nd biggest priority for Geithner/Obama/Bernanke....right after propping up the TBTF Wall Street Vampire Squid & squidlings, which is priority #1.

Change (ka-ching) U can Count On!!!!!

"If they die just spray paint them! "

I think you are a step behind there. A Green Shoots IS just a spray-painted Yellow Shoots.

Re: supreme court decision back in the late 1800's I believe.

Opponents of "corporate personhood" believe that large corporations as juristic persons have enjoyed certain constitutional rights intended for natural humans as the result of a misinterpretation of an 1886 Supreme Court Case, Santa Clara County v. Southern Pacific Railroad. Corporate personhood debate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Don't forget tho, only THOSE LIBERALS are against REAL Merican companies, like the honest hard-working salt-o-the-earth Southern Pacific Railroad. WHICH PAYS ITS TAXES AND DOESN'T WHINE LIKE THOSE WELFARE QUEENS DO!!!! YOU FIGURE IT OUT!

HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:30 pm

We could always forecast with the duck droppings, Cinco.
Wink

In that case, the outlook would be REALLY stinky Wink BTW, I've moved all the critters outside. Much better-

I'm sure your feathered friends are MUCH happier now...
Smile

well this xchange has been great but the 'real world' beckons for a bit (and byte).
ciao

Alert: Geithner Press Conference Saturday

After more global plotting, Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner will hold a press conference at the conclusion of the G-20 meeting of Finance Ministers.

The conference will be held at Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in the Churchill Auditorium Broad Sanctuary, London.

The press conference will be held at 4:30 British Srandard Time.

HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:36 pm

I'm sure your feathered friends are MUCH happier now...
Smile

The chickens are doin' fine, but the ducks are still suspicious of me. Maybe they still remember the extended dunking they got a couple of weeks ago, or maybe they've begun to realize that they're intended for the dinner table. Hey. it beats Squirrel!

You're all right. I let the card go up in the last 4 months. I was one of the all cash old timers here until then. I just wonder at the motivation of the banksters. They were making a small 7% monthly off me but 10.9% cheesed me off.

I have 2 savings accounts, some staggered CDs, my 401k, and then the retirement fund. My super liquid was making me money and I was hoping to keep it aside for some shorting opportunities but hell, it's only $2500.00.

Besides, paying it off lets me write a check where I can put "how do you like your Fing 3% increase now Chase?" in the memo line >; )

Bberg:
“We mustn’t waste this opportunity” in Pittsburgh, Merkel said. “To the surprise of many, we’re noting in several financial centers of the world that the banks that got back on their feet again are behaving just like they did before the financial crisis. This mustn’t repeat itself.”

Let me fix that:
"To the surprise of many idiot regulators, or feigned surprise of captured tools..."


shill (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:38 pm
The press conference will be held at 4:30 British Srandard Time.

Is that Chinese for "British Slandered Time"?

"So this is where the term Baby Gloomers came from right?"

If only "You reap what you sow," holds true. I foresee the large host of Boomers/Gloomers voting themselves no end of entitlements and tax abatement to address their lack of retirement preparation and addiction to Bubble, Bubble, Toil and Troubles

2) The situation for early baby boomers is somewhat worse. The median household with a person
between the ages of 55 and 64 saw its wealth fall by almost 50 percent from $315,400 in 2004 to
$159,800 in 2009.

Yeah, but how much of that was pure appreciation from the housing boom to begin with? They most likely have not lost all that was gained from the spikes in the prior years (which were the result of economic manipulation).

Loss of home equity coupled with losses from 401k in 2008 makes JoeCheapChardonnay very unhappy

File this in under the category "It'll Never Happen":

Dollar Is Funny Money in Push for World Currency: Kevin Hassett - Bloomberg.com
"
Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Like the Chinese, the folks at Disney World peg their currency to the dollar. Hand them $1 U.S. and you receive one Disney dollar, complete with a picture of Mickey Mouse or his friends, plus the signature of Disney’s official treasurer, Scrooge McDuck.

That transaction now seems superfluous. The U.S. dollar is rapidly transforming into a Mickey Mouse currency. This has led to a rising call for the creation of an alternative to the dollar in the form of a new world currency. It would be an enormous mistake to discount these calls as a sideshow. The odds of a world currency emerging have never been higher. "

What a mess in Afghanistan. When you consider all the domestic and international economic and financial problems at large, and the military ones as well, it makes you wonder why anyone wants the blinking job with its possibly (probably) unsolvable puzzles. Then health care and the other entitlement projects, in which it's impossible to please, placate or satisfy anyone without alienating and enraging other factions, parties, classes, interests.

It's head-spinning.

According to our calculations, of those who own their primary residence, nearly 30 percent of
households headed by someone between the ages of 45 to 54 will need to bring money to their
closing (to cover their mortgage and transactions costs) if they were to sell their home.

And how much of that was a direct result of cash out refi's?

Just sayin. Figures can be pushed all around to give any impression.

It would be an enormous mistake to discount these calls as a sideshow. The odds of a world currency emerging have never been higher. "

But how high is that? Not very, I think.

"The odds of a world currency emerging have never been higher. "

I wonder, is there some kind of commodity which is easily divisible and somewhat rare which might work as the equivalent? Hmmm...

I always thought Baby Gloomers should have been the nickname for those of us cuspers born between 1960 and 1970. Too late to get in on the boomer wealth machine and too late to wait to wait the buggers out.

Outsider (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:46 pm
And how much of that was a direct result of cash out refi's?
Just sayin. Figures can be pushed all around to give any impression.

Some, but I'm sure some of it came from moving up to an over-sized, overpriced home to impress their peers, or a combination of both.

This generation isn't nearly as screwed as the 80s babies. Kids of the 60s had a good decade at near peak-earning power to squirrel away nuts.

To the highs of the day.... and beyond!

Visa: "It's everywhere you want to be."

Does that count as world currency?

Re: it makes you wonder why anyone wants the blinking

You are assuming, however, that the people that want "the job" actually think ALL problems are solvable.

Imagine that you just wanted to solve ONE of the problem and knew that every other problem can be ignore, because either 1) they are unsolvable or 2) somebody else will solve them.

I'd take THAT job. (I don't have THAT personality though).

I wonder, is there some kind of commodity which is easily divisible and somewhat rare which might work as the equivalent? Hmmm...

My thinking exactly.

Let me see. Is there something that the market might choose, apart of governments and central banks, as a good store of value?

It would also have to be something that is easy to transport and doesn't decay. There must be something...

"Bberg:
“We mustn’t waste this opportunity” in Pittsburgh, Merkel said. “To the surprise of many, we’re noting in several financial centers of the world that the banks that got back on their feet again are behaving just like they did before the financial crisis. This mustn’t repeat itself.”

Let me fix that:
"To the surprise of many idiot regulators, or feigned surprise of captured tools...""

I must admit that I was astounded at how fast the banks got back on the horse. The window of opportunity to enact reforms was awful short. I am reminded of a long term loser gambling addict, who gets lucky once, and loses it all on the next bad bet. We sent President O" to intervene but he just sat down at the table with them.

pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:47 pm
It would be an enormous mistake to discount these calls as a sideshow. The odds of a world currency emerging have never been higher. "
But how high is that? Not very, I think.

Agreed; they mention the Euro, but I've stated before that I think it's superfluous, and will probably die for the same reasons I don't expect a world currency.

deflationary jane..

I would pay everything except for $100 on that credit card, keep it open so they dont reduce credit limit down..they are making a dollar on you but your most likely costing them more...Plus if we have that credit jubilee you might want to max it out and go play a little.

Closing credit cards that you have had a long time will knock a quick 40 off on your fica...

Dollar Is Funny Money in Push for World Currency: Kevin Hassett - Bloomberg.com

Is that the same author as Dow 36,000? If so, BBerg editors are idiots for letting his name onto their terminals.

Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:47 pm

I always thought Baby Gloomers should have been the nickname for those of us cuspers born between 1960 and 1970. Too late to get in on the boomer wealth machine and too late to wait to wait the buggers out.
We do-

shill / Cinco - this was so close in my first reading to "British Strandard Time", which could be an apt term for anything that happened strategically to the UK after the Suez Crisis, and factoring out the bubble of the last 20 years.

C

Outsider (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:49 pm

Visa: "It's everywhere you want to be."

Does that count as world currency?

It's better-

I don't know if $100 on the card is enough to convince them to keep the card open... And about the credit jubilee, unfortunately, I highly, highly, highly doubt that.

It would be fun tho. I'm keeping a balance just in case. Wink

TG-269: Treasury, Financial System Supervisors and Regulators Issue Financial Sector Self-Assessment Reviews to IMF

Oh, this is going to be good. For your reading pleasure...

Treasury, Financial System Supervisors and Regulators Issue Financial Sector
Self-Assessment Reviews to IMF

WASHINGTON – Today the U.S. Department of the Treasury and U.S. financial system supervisors and regulators[1][1] transmitted new financial sector self-assessment reviews for banking, securities, insurance, and payment systems to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These self-assessments review U.S. observance and compliance with four international standards and core principles:

Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision);
Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation (International Organization of Securities Commissions);
Insurance Core Principles (International Association of Insurance Supervisors); and
Recommendations for Securities Settlement Systems (Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems and the International Organization of Securities Commissions).

You mean, "California on the grand scale...."

While I don't wear an intergenerational-warefare tinfoil hat (no greyhaired grannies on Harley trikes with a 50-cal over the handbars for this golden stater) doing that would essentially gut the country. The younger generations would -- if not rebel, then stop cooperating. Underachieve. Pay few taxes and game the system wherever possible. If the olders were to try to eat the seed corn, I don't see the youngers merrily popping it for them and adding butter.

And that's why I think it won't happen. Doesn't matter how many boomers vote for what. Anything they try, won't work. Short of printing money in five-pound blocks.

"some kind of commodity which is easily divisible and somewhat rare"

Sorry those are mutually exclusive. What you're looking for is a weighted index of a basket of all liquid commodities.

And it must be digital: another cab driver was shot and killed in NYC yesterday for a few paper dollars. Third in a couple weeks.

"Imagine that you just wanted to solve ONE of the problem and knew that every other problem can be ignore, because either 1) they are unsolvable or 2) somebody else will solve them."

Reminds me of a favorite Italian saying: "No solution? No problem."

"I wonder, is there some kind of commodity which is easily divisible and somewhat rare which might work as the equivalent? Hmmm..."

Not something that allows credit growth beyond productive capacity, which is why it'll never be used.

The 80s can wait for the 40s and 50s to croak and I hope they suceed in life beyond their wildest dreams. The 60s and 70s? not so much.

And there were some decent earnings years in the late 90s as long as you were content with the crumbs the 40s and 50s left you. If you were a 60s or 70s without help from the parents, you spent most of your days screwed.

Re: We sent President O" to intervene but he just sat down at the table with them.

Not quite. You sent the entire Democratic Party, which - like ALL political Parties - is run by very smart amoral scum-bags, to "intervene". President "O" just happened to be the advertising campaign slogan.

I'm sure it will be different NEXT election though. Remember, keep voting for those major Parties, they have YOUR interests at heart.

Really, they do. (Queue: Merica flag)

JP (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:50 pm

Dollar Is Funny Money in Push for World Currency: Kevin Hassett - Bloomberg.com

Is that the same author as Dow 36,000? If so, BBerg editors are idiots for letting his name onto their terminals.

No; co-author Wink
Kevin Hassett - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"I'm sure it will be different NEXT election though. Remember, keep voting for those major Parties, they have YOUR interests at heart."

I'm really, really waiting for the first populist. Some guy who comes from outside or cuts loose from the political system, gets his own organization, and starts making threatening noises. Oh, the screaming you'll hear from Washington, from all sides. It'll make Fox News look like the Christian Science Reading Room. Someone's trying to bust The Game!

I did that in 2007/2008, closed a bunch of old stuff and my Fico dropped under 800. Pissed me off to no end.

What's funny is I have an olddddddddd Cap 1 with a zero balance still sitting out there collecting dust and not a peep from them.

Genius at work:

"The new US commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, today submitted an eagerly-awaited assessment of the war in Afghanistan that acknowledges the disastrous approach of the past eight years and proposes a completely revamped strategy.

The revised strategy, in the face of the Taliban's expanding influence and waning support for the Kabul government, switches the emphasis from engaging directly with militants to winning the hearts and minds of the Afghan population, officials in Washington and at Nato headquarters said.

McChrystal, after sending his report to the Pentagon and Nato headquarters, said today that, in spite of the lost ground, the war was still winnable: "The situation in Afghanistan is serious, but success is achievable and demands a revised implementation strategy, commitment and resolve, and increased unity of effort," he said.

McChrystal, has already begun to implement the new strategy, ordering his forces not to fire or drop bombs if there is a risk of civilian casualties. He has also shifted the focus from the eradication of the poppy crops, which alienated farmers, to attacking drug traffickers.

A key part of his new strategy is advocating that US, British and other international forces not only train Afghan forces but operate along side them.

The basis of McChrystal's assessment is contained in guidelines he sent to troops last week in which he said: "The conflict will be won by persuading the population, not by destroying the enemy."

Is this guy serious? Laughing out loud

"They are really stretching for the good news here:
What Underwear Says About the Economy - CBS News"

It says that if you scratch beneath the surface it's all s**t.

1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:54 pm

"some kind of commodity which is easily divisible and somewhat rare"
Sorry those are mutually exclusive. What you're looking for is a weighted index of a basket of all liquid commodities.

I know this falls on deaf ears but...

Why so we can have commodity manipulation instead of currency manipulation? Does a wheat crop failure suddenly may North america very much richer or very much poorer. think about that last one before answering.

Deflationary Jane (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 3:54 pm

The 80s can wait for the 40s and 50s to croak and I hope they suceed in life beyond their wildest dreams. The 60s and 70s? not so much.

And there were some decent earnings years in the late 90s as long as you were content with the crumbs the 40s and 50s left you. If you were a 60s or 70s without help from the parents, you spent most of your days screwed.

I fall into the later category w/o any help from the folks. Got started late too due to Military Service and getting married and having kids before I had a degree. I'm still better off than most, primarily because my SO is SOOOOOOOOOOOOO tight with money. Living more austerely and working hard should suffice for most of the later kids to come along, especially in a deflationary environment. No one has RIGHT to a 52" plasma TV, etc.

I have this question that I've asked a number of people I work with [and yes, I work in finance]. It's fun to see who has trouble with this one, and why.

"Can you save more than your aftertax salary plus bonus?"

Re: I'm really, really waiting for the first populist

Can't happen. Even an outside "insider" is ridiculed out of the contest. (ie, Ron Paul).

The system now is gamed for the wealthy to purchase representatives. A real populist would have to come from the VERY pissed-off peasants and THEN this populist would be the worst person possible. Right now, the peasants still have enough food and cable to keep from being angry about anything.

in the 90s in silicon valley there were far more than crumbs for motivated 60s and 70s babies. my point is that there will be no (somewhat) slightly meritocratic gold rush for the 80s babies. ziperoonie. really, almost no jobs that pay above subsistence or ability to advance through that level. the professional trades are basically closing their doors to new members.

What's funny is I have an olddddddddd Cap 1 with a zero balance still sitting out there collecting dust and not a peep from them.

me too. haven't used the Cap One card in several years, but my FICO is gold and don't want it fudged lower by scumbag banks for card-cancelling by me.

At least they have stopped sending me blank checks every 3 weeks.

THe whole FICO thingy stinks. They reward having credit (and unpaid balances) and don't reward paying your bills fully on time.

HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 4:00 pm

They are really stretching for the good news here:
What Underwear Says About the Economy - CBS News

Well......I need to replace mine, but that's because I keep ripping the elastic off when I put them on, not because the economy is getting better Wink

We are back to a pre-9/11 mentality it is af if Jamie Gorlick is setting policy

Sure hope he's serious. Means they've finally got out the Malayan Emergency manual. Worked well.

C

I fall into the later category w/o any help from the folks. Got started late too due to Military Service and getting married before I had a degree. I'm still better off than most, primarily because my SO is SOOOOOOOOOOOOO tight with money. Living more austerely and working hard should suffice for most of the later kids to come along, especially in a deflationary environment. No one has RIGHT to a 52" plasma TV, etc.

You've just described my situation almost to a 'T', with the exception of military service; I went and dabbled in a very different occupation for a few years before finishing my schooling.

Other than that, tightwad wife, married before degree, living austerely, minimal help from parents, etc is all a familiar refrain.

Although, I must sheepishly add, I did finally buy a big screen TV after saving up for a few years. But hey, it was only on the credit card just long enough to get both the 'rewards' and free extended warranty from the CC company.

The system now is gamed for the wealthy to purchase representatives

We are part way there now. We have a Senator from Citi (Baucas) and a Senator from HealthCare Insurance (Ben Nelson), etc. Byrd has been the Senator for Coal Mining for decades. Grassley is the Senator from Corn Ag.

Jim,

I have a friend doing RMCR's for mortgage brokers and credit score is moot issue now...he just pulled rmcr last week for broker whose client hit 530, but had long time on job and 25% down...deal is in escrow.......

also luxury import auto mfcturer finance arm is lowering fica requirement to 575 starting tomorrow...think 3 letters and a propeller

outsider-I think its going to happen..Its the only way to ramp consumption....

Re: The conflict will be won by persuading the population, not by destroying the enemy.

Look, the guy's a REAL Merican. How many REAL Merican would agree with the following statement:

All the Afghans really want is to live like Mericans! To help WIN in Afghanistan, we should build more McDonalds.

Substitute Vietnam for Afghanistan and you know why we stayed in Vietnam for so long, enthusiastically supported by THE WORLDS GREATEST GENERATION! LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT YOU GODDAMN DRAFT-DOGGER COMMIE HIPPY!!!!!!

some investor guy (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 4:02 pm

I have this question that I've asked a number of people I work with [and yes, I work in finance]. It's fun to see who has trouble with this one, and why.

"Can you save more than your aftertax salary plus bonus?"

Since some savings can be put away with before tax income, one could, in theory, save more than your after tax income. However, this would involve cutting your expenses to essentially zero, perhaps by living in the woods, eating squirrel, bathing in a stream, etc. Seems impossible in all the the hypothetical case.

"The conflict will be won by persuading the population, not by destroying the enemy."

Co-optation is very serious indeed. Seemed to work fairly well in Iraq.

I have a friend doing RMCR's for mortgage brokers and credit score is moot issue now...

CreditCriminals...

I'm a renter, and moving without a good FICO can be a hassle if the property mgr wants good risks. That's all they look at I think.

Same but almost 70s baby. Spent my gold earning years paying off my 3% student loans.

The late 80s generation is the one I most identify with, or at least the ones I know. They may have an iphone and computer, but they share housing, don't subscribe to cable TV, keep small neighborhood gardens, free cycle, buy cheaply off the internet, take outside jobs, and cut coupons. They are as frugal as my depression era Aunt. I think their parents should be really proud of them.

outsider-I think its going to happen..Its the only way to ramp consumption....

I'd love to hear how you envision it happening, including price tag (and long-term consequences).

edit: unless you're talking mass bankruptcies.

Since some savings can be put away with before tax income, one could, in theory, save more than your after tax income. However, this would involve cutting your expenses to essentially zero, perhaps by living in the woods, eating squirrel, bathing in a stream, etc. Seems impossible in all the the hypothetical case.

I have a feeling that he might be referring to how the savings rate is calculated. I'm sure that if you somehow accounted for capital appreciation and used some shenanigans within what is and isn't included in the calculation, it's possible to arrive at a savings number in excess of personal disposable income.

outsider, we just saw a little fica adjusting the other day that dismisses $100.00 and under lates or collection accounts. I think they will change modeling to reduce the factor used for scoring on foreclosures, repos, bankruptcy and 90 day lates during a set period of time. (years 07-09) Lifting scores up at the same time settling on balances at 1/2 off.

I think the cost will be factored on bank participation rate, they will be more focused on this during the FASB mirage up now....while applying the charged off amount against earnings with favorable tax treatment by irs....

noob goldberg (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 4:14 pm
I have a feeling that he might be referring to how the savings rate is calculated. I'm sure that if you somehow accounted for capital appreciation and used some shenanigans within what is and isn't included in the calculation, it's possible to arrive at a savings number in excess of personal disposable income.

I see what you're getting at; I e-mailed him and hope for an answer. BTW, capital usually depreciates (in the eyes of the IRS), and this can give you an additional benefit, but it also reduces you after tax income, making the question and the answer even more confusing. If you can then sell this "capital", you may be taxed at the Capital Gains rate which may or may not be better than you current tax rate, further complicating things. Perhaps he'll tell us the answer in the next thread-

The late 80s generation is the one I most identify with, or at least the ones I know. They may have an iphone and computer, but they share housing, don't subscribe to cable TV, keep small neighborhood gardens, free cycle, buy cheaply off the internet, take outside jobs, and cut coupons. They are as frugal as my depression era Aunt. I think their parents should be really proud of them.

I'm a late 70's baby, and I have a number of 80's babies as friends. I have a number of friends who are in a similar position as myself in terms of saving a large portion of their money, avoiding many unnecessary expenditures, etc. However, I would guess half of them, even if they are frugal, are horrible at budgeting and still end up blowing all of their 'savings' without having a clue where it went.

However, the more and more friends I do sit down and talk finances with, the more impressed I am at their ingenuity and resourcefulness. For a few years there, in my 20's, I was mildly concerned about the spending habits of my generation, but now I see we're all turning out pretty good, at least the ones I know.

noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 4:23 pm
However, the more and more friends I do sit down and talk finances with, the more impressed I am at their ingenuity and resourcefulness. For a few years there, in my 20's, I was mildly concerned about the spending habits of my generation, but now I see we're all turning out pretty good, at least the ones I know.

In case you missed it:
Comment by Cinco-X from thread 'Fitch: Credit Card Default Chargeoffs decline Slightly in July'

In case you missed it:
Fitch: Credit Card Default Chargeoffs decline Slightly in July | Hoocoodanode?

Oh, thanks! I glanced at that but didn't open the link.

Appreciated.

"I have a friend doing RMCR's for mortgage brokers and credit score is moot issue now...he just pulled rmcr last week for broker whose client hit 530, but had long time on job and 25% down...deal is in escrow.......

also luxury import auto mfcturer finance arm is lowering fica requirement to 575 starting tomorrow...think 3 letters and a propeller"

It sure would be nice if ROW figured out that the credit scoring is almost as reliable as AAA ratings on MBS.

"Did anyone make any progress on investigating the validity of the 19% drop in food consumption?
1. Is that in dollars? Euros? or is it by weight or by volume?
2. What's the time period involve?
3. Is that worldwide or US?
4. Is that extrapolated from a narrow study by some PhD, or is it from a federal agency survey? Margins of Errors?

So many questions.... "

Was a small clip in a major newspaper (wife gets 3 papers) about a month ago concerning US food consumption year over year. Just like you, I said wow and wow again upon rereading, but didn't keep it or look for further verification. Will add that some low on funds are eating dry dog food instead of people food.

ah, cclt, you are talking about partial chargeoffs. And inflated FICO scores. I was thinking of credit jubilee as a widespread wipeout of debt, as in let's start at ground zero.

Not that cramdowns and chargeoffs wouldn't be a huge relief to a lot of people.

If you alter FICO scores, it seems they become pretty meaningless.

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