i dont know what is going on with edit, i clickyed and it sloooooooowy loaded so slow that i went to post new comment . edit loaded took down post new comment and took down edit comment and i am back on post new comment.
and i forgot what i was going to say!!
edit loaded very good this time.and i remembered what i was going to say since i really to want to be on or close to the topic under discussion. really
it has been years since i have been to anything other than a fast food, place.i havent been doing my bit to help the economy. does golden corral, red lobester, ruby tues,cracker barrel count as restaurants?
I just don't understand the whole "It's not contracting as fast" thing. If you have a car that is only losing 1 quart a day v. 3 quarts - that is good? You can keep pouring oil in but the rings are going to go eventually.
"The cook must have put the green shoots in the soup."
No, there are probably 2 reasons for the RPI upticks recently. The first is divorces have probably increased, so some men are eating out more, and 2) families are realizing that they really don't know how to cook. Instead of cooking, everyone gets the all you can shovel down pasta bowls.
(maybe a third there is an increase of people who bought homes where the previous owner was entitled to the appliances)
OT but related to whose going to pay. It was announced this morning that the Commanding General in Afganistan says we need to double their military and police to 300,000 and we will be there in one form or another for ten years with the first two in active operations.. My question is who is going to pay their salaries and equipment let alone the other costs of their government. How can our economy carry such a load for so long? Sorry about this off topic item but it just makes me mad when no one in the MSM recognizes the economic costs of these operations even if only to the extent of commenting upon it.
OT: Anyone worried about this? Bill would give president emergency control of Internet | Politics and Law - CNET News
"August 28, 2009 12:34 AM PDT Bill would give president emergency control of Internet
Internet companies and civil liberties groups were alarmed this spring when a U.S. Senate bill proposed handing the White House the power to disconnect private-sector computers from the Internet.
They're not much happier about a revised version that aides to Sen. Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat, have spent months drafting behind closed doors. CNET News has obtained a copy of the 55-page draft of S.773 (excerpt), which still appears to permit the president to seize temporary control of private-sector networks during a so-called cybersecurity emergency."
Cinco-X,
Been worried about it for awhile. This bill isn't really new, consider it the Internet-Patriot Act. I'm not sure it'll pass now, but when something happens ie. "this got hacked and resulted in large losses of money", I'll be concerned that it will pass ala Patriot Act.
if you really want to get mad read "Descent in Chaos" by Ahmed Rashid.
There was a brief window of opportunity in 2002 when a little bit of US focus could have settled the problem. Instead GWB decided to go off on his little Middle Eastern adventure. The true cost of the will be not the money and lives lost in Iraq but the money and lives that will be lost in Afghanistan. That is the next Vietnam. We can't leave because that will be a defeat at the hand of the Islamic fundamentalism. Unlike the Vietnam domino theory (bunch of nonsense) a defeat in Afghanistan could have serious implications with regard to Pakistan who unlike Saddam Hussain actually do have nuclear weapons.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:19 am
I just don't understand the whole "It's not contracting as fast" thing. If you have a car that is only losing 1 quart a day v. 3 quarts - that is good? You can keep pouring oil in but the rings are going to go eventually.
Based on personal experience
Had a similar experience with an old Plymouth. When it was leaking a quart per tank of gas, it wasn't too bad, when it leaked 3 quarts per tank of gas, it was done. Relative "badness" is a reality, and when the other alternative was to buy a $500 car when I only had $50, a quart per tankful didn't seem too bad.
This past Saturday I went with three friends to the Gardens, a pricey eatery in the Westwood district of Los Angeles. I saw a crowd of overwhelmingly blue-haired Holmby Hills types. By 8:30, when we were finished eating, there was only ONE table occupied in the entire restaurant. On Saturday night, at 8:30 p.m.. I commented on it, but my companions didn't seem to grasp the significance.
Yep. Could not afford to do anything but run it until it drops. My labored analogy is that all they are doing is pouring that cheapo - "Stop Oil Leaks" you can buy at the auto store and hoping they can get another 10k miles out of the economy.
not really- what would like to happen during a cyber security emergency? Have all system crash? I believe they already have that kind of authority with regard to cell phones - the government has the authority to commandeer capacity for use in an emergency. The President has the power to suspend habeas corpus in a national emergency- can't get more fundamental than that.
BTW were you as outraged and concerned when habeas corpus was suspended for a US citizen who was locked up indefinitely without trial? Or was that OK because it was Republican President doing it ?
Restaurants are definitely going to be slow, I have a friend that owns a restaurant and the amount of people going out to eat has surely declined. Not many people are willing to spend the extra buck on luxury of eating out.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 9:43 am
If we turn in this old economy for a new one can we get a $68 trillion rebate under the program?
LOL, nice. I'm worried about this cash-for-clunkers program pushing demand forward though. We might get a newer and more efficient economy well in advance of when we need it, plus there is the problem of disposing of the old economy. We are destroying the old engines so they cannot be used again, but what will we do with the remaining usable parts?
At the lows in the equity market last March, the S&P 500 was de facto pricing in -2.5% real GDP and $50 of operating earnings for the year. Guess what? Far from being grossly undervalued at the lows (though some stocks were — especially the financials, which were priced for bankruptcy) the market at the lows was fairly priced on a price-to-book and price-to-earnings basis. Usually at bear market lows, the S&P 500 goes to silly cheap levels. It never did this time around, and five months and 50% later, there is yet again, in 2007-style, tremendous risk in this market. Never before has the stock market surged this far, this fast, between the time of the low and the time the recession (supposedly) ended. What is “normal” is that the rally-ahead-of-the-recovery is 20%. This market is now trading as if we are in the second half of a recovery phase and yet it is not even been fully ascertained that the downturn is over — a one-quarter spurt in automotive production and sales induced by Cash-for-Clunkers is not enough to support the widespread assertion that the recession is behind us (the odds of a fourth quarter relapse, especially in the U.S. consumer, are non-trivial).
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:37 am
cinco-x,
Yep. Could not afford to do anything but run it until it drops. My labored analogy is that all they are doing is pouring that cheapo - "Stop Oil Leaks" you can buy at the auto store and hoping they can get another 10k miles out of the economy
Right; glad those days are behind......for the car anyway
Owner of one of the best value, non-franchised, and highest traffic restarurants in the area for the last 25 years is reporting much lower revenues and complaining about the $45,000 in property taxes for his 2500 sq ft building. Heard that to counter the problem, he is serving less food for the same price. Ouch! That has to hurt business and his remaining customers.
Ok, UST long end observation: the mild tightening in overnight trading blew out at 0800 eastern with a first spike, then eased, with the 10 and long bond spiking again at 0945 on PMI release. Jansen is referring to "carnage", which is not a casual term for him. Could be an interesting day.
Money managers unloaded a record amount of consumer discretionary shares compared with the industry’s market value in the 20 trading days ended Aug. 20, according to data from Boston-based State Street, the world’s largest investor for institutions.
They became net sellers of consumer stocks a month after U.S. equities began to rebound in March, according to the data, which stretches back to 1995. At the same time, they bought $2.7 billion of financial companies’ stocks, the highest percentage of any group.
Shares of Nordstrom, the Seattle-based department-store chain, slipped 3.6 percent in 1995 and fell 13 percent in 1996. As the stock rallied 132 percent since March, institutional investors pared their stakes by 3 percent last quarter, regulatory filings compiled by Bloomberg show.
London-based Schroders, Standard Life Plc, located in Edinburgh, and the Austin, Texas-based Teacher Retirement System of Texas, which together oversee more than $500 billion, were among more than 80 mutual funds, insurers and pensions that cut their holdings by at least half since April, the data show.
restaurants...How are the chains going to survive if they can't borrow. Most of them expanded in the last few years... The Cheesecake Factory alone must create a billion lbs. of fat for the us economy every year
Next think you know someone is arguing to take down financial blogosphere, since it represents an economic threat to national security...
Right; that's the more surgical approach. If they already have the authority as some seem to argue, then why are they diddling with yet another piece of legislation? It's almost certainly to grab even more control over free speech. It seems that just being able to have the major networks refuse to air ads criticizing the Obama health-care plan is not enough; they now want to control the discussions on the internet. This is not the American I remember-
Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 7:40 am
I believe they already have that kind of authority
Correct. The people getting their panties in a bunch need to chill.
Yeah sure, why should people get worked up about issuing licenses for printing presses and making a federal certification for printing press operator.
We should all just lie back and contemplate what color we could paint the ceiling next. It's already that way, why improve anything. God forbid anyone wake up and demand positive change.
Nothing like apologizing for the machinery of tyranny while painting yourself as the voice of rationality.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:02 am
The America I remember didn't have the Internet.
And it was steered into a neocolonial ditch for 50 years by mass media creating a false sense of national concensus at the behest of the people who issued their broadcast licenses. Nothing like a little "be the voice of patriotism OR ELSE" after 9/11 to make it clear just how the game was played.
The America I remember was a quiet place
As long as you were of the white race
When gas was cheap and so were my jeans
and only teleevanglists had money making schemes
Recessions are bad for restaurant patrons--the menu is either changed, portions are smaller, quantity is reduced or all of the above.
I don't know that smaller portions would necessarily be bad for patrons at most restaurants. The expensive ones already have more reasonably sized portions, and their customers probably aren't hurting as much as those of the "value oriented" restaurants whose main appeal is large, fat laden meals to provide a "more filling" experience
The Authors Guild has entered into an agreement with Axis Pro, the world's leading underwriter of media liability insurance, to offer Guild members professional liability insurance. Freelance writing, blogging and book authorship are insured under this program for claims of libel, invasion of privacy, copyright or trademark infringement, plagiarism, errors & omissions and other related risks.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:07 am
News has always been as honest and accurate as Advertisers would allow.
We're talking about potential advertisers being shut out of the market, not about network news. Where I live, one of the locals took out a full page add in the local newspaper when the Town Selectmen were trying to do something he thought was underhanded; Do you think the paper should have the right to censor his views if they didn't jibe with those of their editorial staff? Didn't this administration talk about reactivating the equal time requirement for talk radio?
See the ISM index went to 50 (no expansion, no contraction - stuck at low levels). Can't recall where I saw an article that when (if) manufacturing does pick up, suppliers (especially small suppliers) may not be in a postion to supply parts, as they have no inventory, no raw materials, no workers, and no access to lines of credit to start back up production.
Writer's Guild: Freelance writing, blogging and book authorship are insured under this program for claims of libel, invasion of privacy, copyright or trademark infringement, plagiarism, errors & omissions and other related risks.
Current membership: In order to be eligible for Current membership a writer must acquire a minimum of 24 units in the three years preceding application. Upon final qualification for Current membership, an initiation fee of $2,500 is due, payable to the Writers Guild of America, West.
SCHEDULE OF UNITS*
Two Units
For each complete week of employment within the Guild's jurisdiction on a week-to-week basis.
Three Units
Story for a radio or television program less than 30 minutes shall be prorated in increments of 10 minutes or less.
Four Units
Story for a short subject theatrical motion picture of any length or for a radio or television program or breakdown for a non-primetime serial 30 minutes through 60 minutes.
Six Units
Teleplay or radio play less than 30 minutes shall be prorated in five-minute increments;
Television format for a new serial or series;
“Created By” credit given pursuant to the separation of rights provisions of the WGA Theatrical and Television Basic Agreement in addition to other units accrued for the literary material on which the “Created By” credit is based.
Eight Units
Story for a radio or television program or breakdown for a non-primetime serial more than 60 minutes and less than 90 minutes;
Screenplay for a short subject theatrical motion picture or for a radio play or teleplay 30 minutes through 60 minutes.
12 Units
Story for a radio or television program 90 minutes or longer or story for a feature-length theatrical motion picture; or breakdown for a non-primetime serial 90 minutes or longer.
Radio play or teleplay more than 60 minutes and less than 90 minutes.
24 Units
Screenplay for a feature-length theatrical motion picture; radio play or teleplay 90 minutes or longer;
Long-term story projection, which is defined for this purpose as a bible, for a specified term, on an existing, five times per week non-prime time serial;
Bible for any television serial or primetime miniseries of at least four hours.
A Rewrite
One-half the number of units allotted to the applicable category of work.
A Polish
One-quarter the number of units allotted to the applicable category of work.
An Option
One-half the number of units allotted to the applicable category of work subject to a maximum entitlement of eight such units per project in any one year. An extension or renewal of the same option shall not be accorded additional units. If an option on previously unexploited literary material is exercised, the sale of this material is accorded the number of units applicable to the work minus the number of units accorded to the option of the same material.
So far, this isn't borne out by what I'm seeing. One of my favorite lunch places is a small family-owned Italian restaurant. The recession has induced the owner to devise weekly specials--new dishes!--for $10, a noticeable leg down on the cost. To lure in the declining business, he's freshened up his menu and pulled down the prices. Unfortunately, his $6,000 monthly rent for his small space hasn't gone down.
"Do you think the paper should have the right to censor his views if they didn't jibe with those of their editorial staff? "
It is their paper and the freedom of speech to print what they want and live with the results. They are a business and will be sensitive to their revenue stream. That is why the internet is killing print media. Anybody can post their view honest or loaded to their cause. Freedom becomes an even bigger buyer beware.
some of the guys at my office still try to go out to lunch 3-4 times a week at local places (no chains) and one thing we have noticed is that the help is better - maybe the restaurents are getting a higher quality employee (with job losses elsewhere) or lower patronage means they have more time to service us.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:14 am
Associate membership is available for a total of three years at a cost of $75 per year.
Does that mean anything, though? I am or was a member of several such guilds / assn, and the associate memberships were always catchbasins for "aspirational" individuals. Maybe H-Hack can clarify.
We really need to found a press syndicate if we want the protection one affords.
nova - untraceable?! LOL. The amount of information barfed up into the blogosphere makes it a pretty simple proposition to work out who some posters are.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:16 am
It is their paper and the freedom of speech to print what they want and live with the results. They are a business and will be sensitive to their revenue stream. That is why the internet is killing print media. Anybody can post their view honest or loaded to their cause. Freedom becomes an even bigger buyer beware.
Perhaps Liz or someone else with some legal expertise will comment; in the meantime, it's my recollection that if I have money and walk into a store to buy something, they have to sell it to me. It's discriminatory not to do so. How is a newspaper different? If I want to advertise, and their business model involves selling advertisements, how can they refuse to sell me add space if I'm not doing something that breaks the law? Extend that principle to TV-
According to the group's 2009 Online Buyer Economic Trend Study, 53 percent of women said that their economic situation is worse than a year ago. Just 38 percent of men said they were worse off a year ago.
The pessimism among women raises concern, as marketers consider women to be responsible for more than 80 percent of household purchases
"What's more, 73% of women said the recession has fundamentally changed the way they think about saving and spending money vs. 57% of men," according to Advertising Age.
".......the Commanding General in Afganistan says we need to double their [actually by doubling OURS] military and police to 300,000 and we will be there in one form or another for ten years with the first two in active operations."
YES! Viet Nam again - can we "get it right" this time?
Advertising and media for the herd. You want to take a few minutes and think "outside of the box" for a bit? It might be a little unnerving - but entirely safe (I warned you).........buckle-up.......
Just plain old food consumption in the US is down 19% year over year. Do you think that those consuming less are going to restaurants more often?
Where did you see this number? This is relevant to my interests
Cinco, unless the reason they won't sell to you is based on "invidious discrimination" against a suspect class, the store can refuse to sell to you. Television is controlled by the FCC because the airwaves are deemed a public asset. Newspapers are not controlled at all. They can absolutely refuse to sell space to someone.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:26 am
YES! Viet Nam again - can we "get it right" this time?
The only way to win the Afghanistan game is, don't play. The cost to stabilize it is vastly higher than its native economic potential. You go there and spend fortunes chasing tribesmen who have nothing - literally - better to do than fight you. Then you run out of money and go away. Lather, rinse, repeat.
No you can refuse to do business with anyone. Being in the car business I would on occasion come accrossed people who want to do unsafe or rigged repairs. I have the right to not do them as I become the responsible party for the results if it fails. Would you take an ad from a one time customer against a daily full page advertiser who would cancel their ad program if you ran the hit piece? That would be a real hit to your bottom line that is hard to overcome. Business pressure can be applied.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:01 am
YLSP (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:41 am
Next think you know someone is arguing to take down financial blogosphere, since it represents an economic threat to national security...
Right; that's the more surgical approach. If they already have the authority as some seem to argue, then why are they diddling with yet another piece of legislation? It's almost certainly to grab even more control over free speech. It seems that just being able to have the major networks refuse to air ads criticizing the Obama health-care plan is not enough; they now want to control the discussions on the internet. This is not the American I remember-
The ticker networks are far more of an economic threat to national security Free speech will have to go in the interests of the state. It's lucky for us that we just so happen to have developed massive data mining operations and surveillance methods for catching potential terrorists and kiddie-porn purveyors which can be adapted cheaply and quickly to work for other purposes. Talk about a lucky break!
I completely agree. I discovered a blogger Fabius Maximus who provides good analysis as to why we should exit Afg ASAP.
A great quote:
"But without a doubt the most persistent questions I received were along the lines of “What are we doing in Afghanistan and why are we there in the first place?”
The fact that these are the questions that I am now receiving from career public servants in our nation’s departments and agencies should be a huge warning bell for the administration. And it means that Kagan is exactly right — this is now Obama’s war, and he and Stan McChrystal need to explain to the American people in non-IR-speak why we are in Afghanistan and what we are doing there. (Hint: if you cannot explain your policy to folks in the 3rd Congressional District of Tennessee in a way they can understand it, you might need to change your policy.)
As one career public servant explained to me afterwards, “It’s not like we do not support the war in Afghanistan — it’s just that no one has explained what we’re doing there.“"
Market will stall and go nowhere but sideways until they let the dollar fall. We need a .70 dollar to make it to 14,000 and $140 Oil. Again if you have been paying attention we have already been there, it has already been done.
Just keep acquiring the Chaos Hedges, and you will do just fine...this Market is going no where anytime soon.
Mr Slippery (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:32 am
It would take an extreme amount of work to hide your identity. Even then, can you really trust the TOR nodes you proxy through?
Fortunately for me, I am of no significance.
Hide in obscurity, right in plain sight... I used to be quite concerned and played with anonymous proxies, tor, and other crap, but eventually realized the futility compared to the forces that can be brought to bear upon you if you actually become a threat, and just stopped caring about it.
flaminia (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:28 am
Cinco, unless the reason they won't sell to you is based on "invidious discrimination" against a suspect class, the store can refuse to sell to you. Television is controlled by the FCC because the airwaves are deemed a public asset. Newspapers are not controlled at all. They can absolutely refuse to sell space to someone.
The High Cost of Free Speech
.......
Historically, advertising didn’t receive the same constitutional protection as political speech, one form of free speech the Founding Fathers had in mind when they drafted the First Amendment. Political speech was valued for its role in guiding us toward a more just, democratic society, "a more perfect union." But over the past few decades the courts have taken a different view, granting free speech rights to commercial interests. "
Nobody saw the market going down and the USD going up. Total black swan wrapped up in a powerball ticket. This doesn't make any logical sense to someone who knows water to be wet, the air to be clear, and flation to be hyperinflating.
Cinco: The guarantee of free speech is owed by the government, not by private parties. Again: television is controlled by government (because government doles out the air waves) and that is why TV has to act differently than private newspapers or businesses. The rules concerning commercial speech are STILL only about the government's right to control or curb that speech. They have absolutely nothing to do with another private party's ability to control or curb the speech within that private party's sphere.
someone should have read their history about afghanistan you really have to go way back in history to find a people that beat them, sort of because they still gave conquers trouble.
as for why we are there? why now isnt the place that those people that flew those planes into the world trade center were from?
do i have say that that is a very snide remark?
........this IS Obama's War..........Rules of the Game: To Be Decided.........Object of Game: Unknown.........Length of Game: Unknown......
"It would take an extreme amount of work to hide your identity."
.....they already have my address, but I'll be glad to supply it yet again.
What's the downside? They can't shave my head, ship me to a foreign country, and tell me who to kill again. Jail? Give me a break - ........ that's nothin'.......I need the rest anyway....
Hide in obscurity, right in plain sight... I used to be quite concerned and played with anonymous proxies, tor, and other crap, but eventually realized the futility compared to the forces that can be brought to bear upon you if you actually become a threat, and just stopped caring about it.
I just try to keep my real name off the internet to avoid casual hits from people who know my real name. It's a pain in the arse to clean your trail after-the-fact, something an entire generation of teenagers is going to discover when they try to find their first real professional job.
Cinco: The guarantee of free speech is owed by the government, not by private parties. Again: television is controlled by government (because government doles out the air waves) and that is why TV has to act differently than private newspapers or businesses. The rules concerning commercial speech are STILL only about the government's right to control or curb that speech. They have absolutely nothing to do with another private party's ability to control or curb the speech within that private party's sphere.
For some weird reason, Hoocoodanode would not let me post this "in reply to." Ah! It posted already. Strange. Sorry for the double post. Is it possible to delete a double post?
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:29 am
Cinco-X,
No you can refuse to do business with anyone. Being in the car business I would on occasion come accrossed people who want to do unsafe or rigged repairs. I have the right to not do them as I become the responsible party for the results if it fails. Would you take an ad from a one time customer against a daily full page advertiser who would cancel their ad program if you ran the hit piece? That would be a real hit to your bottom line that is hard to overcome. Business pressure can be applied.
This can be abused by business owners, but most business owners don't exercise this right unless the customer truly deserves.
It's the same as kicking someone off your property for trespassing if they do something while visiting you that you do not approve of. Business owners, obviously own the business, and many own the property that the business is on. Others may lease or rent the building/land but it is still their business.
The customer is not necessarily always right. Business and companies used to be firm believers in this policy, but so many customers have adapted to abusing this policy just to get their way when, their actions/behavior are obviously unacceptable. "
ot-auto credit application volume doing own version of shanghai cliff diving last 2 days...
word is an import luxury auto manufactr financial arm is lowering score threshold for approval to 575?
credit score destruction mandates this...debtpushers need to fill the syringe
going to have to think real hard about my good credit strategy...
picked up next sun and mon at the wynn for $120.00 per night on priceline...gotta love deflation...
Afghanistan
It is all about geography. They are limited to one ring road to connect the country because of mountains. That encourage valley level tribalism. Happens in other places too. Solution would be to spend billions of dollars creating alternate routes to break the sub-national areas of dominance down. Is the money worth it? I don't know. No matter what happens in Afghanistan, there is still Pakistan living to the south which is the root of many problems. Canada should have pulled out in 2009, but the government extended to 2011 because they maybe were hoping to dish off a cabinet member Peter McKay hoping he could be the next head of NATO. We can't win it on our own, and its doubtful to get adequate commitments. So it's a total waste for us
gabyjan (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:41 am
someone should have read their history about afghanistan you really have to go way back in history to find a people that beat them, sort of because they still gave conquers trouble.
Beating them is easy. You'll win almost every battle unless you suck something fierce. Then eventually you go away.
as for why we are there? why now isnt the place that those people that flew those planes into the world trade center were from?
That's exactly why we're there, and if anyone tries to get us out, the corpse of 9/11 will be dragged through the streets while 10,000 slack jawed Republican couch commandoes scream "9/11 NEVAR FORGET!". Good job on Osama's part.
Now Iraq, that was all Bush, and that will prove much more costly in time.
"Nobody saw the market going down and the USD going up. Total black swan wrapped up in a powerball ticket. This doesn't make any logical sense to someone who knows water to be wet, the air to be clear, and flation to be hyperinflating."
The guy in the office next to me comes back today as a freshly minted 2nd Lt. He has been at officer training school. He will be buying sunblock again I am sure.
Canada should have pulled out in 2009, but the government extended to 2011 because they maybe were hoping to dish off a cabinet member Peter McKay hoping he could be the next head of NATO. We can't win it on our own, and its doubtful to get adequate commitments. So it's a total waste for us
That waste is why my parents line up on bridge overpasses west of Trenton, Ontario, every time a body from Afghanistan is repatriated.
Even if they don't agree with the war, at least the families know their sacrifice was recognized by the citizens of Canada.
Just a thought, but when H1N1 kicks intyo hyper-mode, people in general will question the health conditions of food joints! Look for traffic to head south!
CIA's opium trade dollars and a 25 year old delusional belief that the US will build an oil pipeline south from the Caspian thru Afghanistan to the deep sea ports of Pakistan, bypassing Iran and Russia
RockyR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:49 am
SPROING!?!?
a spring just broke in my head.
"Nobody saw the market going down and the USD going up. Total black swan wrapped up in a powerball ticket. This doesn't make any logical sense to someone who knows water to be wet, the air to be clear, and flation to be hyperinflating."
I have a completely different view of Iraq then most on here but I also wonder what we are doing now in Afghanistan. If Iraq is to be view as Bushs war then Afghanistan is definitely Obamas.
Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:48 am
"why now isnt the place that those people that flew those planes into the world trade center were from?"
No, they were from Saudi Arabia. They lived in Afghanistan for awhile 8 years ago.
Well.... their passports were from Saudia Arabia; it's not conclusive that they highjackers all came from there. I seem to recall that in some cases, the folks with their names attached to those passports are still alive and well living in Saudia Arabia-
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:42 am
I just try to keep my real name off the internet to avoid casual hits from people who know my real name. It's a pain in the arse to clean your trail after-the-fact, something an entire generation of teenagers is going to discover when they try to find their first real professional job.
I lucked into a position where it probably wouldn't matter unless it was really awful, but I expect that it won't be the usual case to not be searched out. I have a facebook but keep it clean and in general don't do stupid things in public that I have to hide later. I will occasionally put a first name on something posted online in a private group but have several pseudonyms for different purposes/interests/boards.
Hide in obscurity, right in plain sight... I used to be quite concerned and played with anonymous proxies, tor, and other crap, but eventually realized the futility compared to the forces that can be brought to bear upon you if you actually become a threat, and just stopped caring about it.
I don't think that is the point. I mean; I'm not a threat by definition. Anyone looking for me is looking in the wrong place.
I'm not trying to hide anything at all - I'm trying to raise the incremental cost of complete surveillance and I thank anyone else who adds to that cost.
noob g.: That waste is why my parents line up on bridge overpasses west of Trenton, Ontario, every time a body from Afghanistan is repatriated.
What a touching thing to do. edit: I'm not sure how to emote complete snarkless on the Internet. (re-re-edit, especially here! DOH! Snark!). I really am touched by this action, it seems quite the opposite of the US.
I'm not trying to hide anything at all - I'm trying to raise the incremental cost of complete surveillance and I thank anyone else who adds to that cost.
I'm not trying to hide anything either, but to me there is a large gulf between 'not hiding' and 'making it ridiculously easy for anyone to learn everything about you'.
It seems like a great idea until it's used against you in a way you never intended, at which point it's far too late to make any changes.
NervousRex (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:05 am
I'm not trying to hide anything at all - I'm trying to raise the incremental cost of complete surveillance and I thank anyone else who adds to that cost.
Yes, it's the bear in the woods strategy - you don't have to outrun the bear, just the next guy also running from the bear.
Back on topic; why is anyone surprised that restaurants would be sucking it down right now. This is a recession (at best), and shakeouts of weak businesses are supposed to occur. Additionally, one would expect this to be a lagging indicator, at least for restaurants that are "family oriented". Restaurants that are used for business meetings might recover earlier, and it would be more interesting if that aspect or the business could be extracted from the data-
noob - good point. Seems to me that employment demand is probably going to come from more gov/mil and health, areas where vetting and clearances are often needed, either for genuine sec reasons or reputational reasons, and the greater sum of indiscretions that are on the net mean greater difficulties securing or holding employment, and/or terminations for lousy and dubious cause.
On the upside there could be a bubble in civil libs, infosec and labor litigation...
Increased domestic holding of UST is coming from banks. Banks have new excess liquidity due to the Fed buying $800B and counting of agency MBS, some of which were juiced by rolling bad mortgages into agency loans.
Call this "indirect QE". Eventually it will lead to a dollar collapse. A dollar collapse can be seen in two ways - relative to other bullsh*t fiat currencies, and relative to global commodities.
On both fronts, the USD is losing value already.
The only things that will get cheaper in coming years for US consumers are products that have a large US worker labor content, since that is one commodity that will be getting cheaper.
Seriously, I keep expecting the Yen to be inflated back up north of 95 every day, and it seems to be slowly sinking. Seeing as how Japan's economy and employment is taking front stage in their political discourse, where will they try to export since their currency is currently strengthening against everything with a Pacific ocean bordering it?
noob, can you do me a favor and draw a little more detail into that? I should be able to figure this out but sometimes it's better just to ask.
It's hard to go into detail, because it's very difficult to predict how this information could be used against you. When I was doing my undergrad, for example, I visited a number of economics blogs and used my real name when engaging in discussions about free markets, libertarianism, etc. My viewpoints changed significantly as I got older, but those posts stayed exactly the same. I had them deleted before I started looking for jobs, because there was no way to predict how a potential interviewer would react if they searched my name and came across them. Perhaps they were very left-leaning, and had no patience for right-leaning ramblings.
Beyond that, people have been convicted in part based on their internet search histories, etc. A seemingly innocent query, when taken out of context, can be end up making me look bad. It's easier to simply remove the possible conflict.
What a touching thing to do. edit: I'm not sure how to emote complete snarkless on the Internet. (re-re-edit, especially here! DOH! Snark!). I really am touched by this action, it seems quite the opposite of the US.
I had no real opinions on the Afghan war until I happened to be visiting my parents one day when a repatriation occurred. I drove against the path of the procession, for about 40 minutes, and became increasingly emotional as I saw hundreds of people taking time out of their day to stand on an overpass and wait, sometimes hours, for the procession to go through. By the time I stopped and joined my parents at 'their' bridge, it was a pretty powerful event.
It crystallized the human cost of war, in my mind.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:26 pm
Beyond that, people have been convicted in part based on their internet search histories, etc. A seemingly innocent query, when taken out of context, can be end up making me look bad. It's easier to simply remove the possible conflict.
Would you mind citing some examples of "innocent queries" that got people convicted of something? Real cases, not hypothetical scenarios. Thanks-
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:26 pm
I had them deleted before I started looking for jobs, because there was no way to predict how a potential interviewer would react if they searched my name and came across them. Perhaps they were very left-leaning, and had no patience for right-leaning ramblings.
This, credit checks, awesome ways to hermetically seal your business away from talent. With just a few simple clicks, you can reduce your applicant pool down to ineffectual lilly-white pussies who take no stand on anything and carefully avoid entanglements or associations that might seem to be anything but totally innocent. Then wonder why your company is going to hell. The secure, pristine, totally nonproductive future of America is assured -- we'll have the same degree of talent in the corporate sector we normally see today only from elected officials!
For those wondering what is going on in the Shanghai Stock market Michael Pettis has a very good explanation of how the SSE functions.
mpettis.com
Here's the important part
"Why did the market collapse? Forget about fundamentals. As I have argued many times before, China lacks the necessary tools that fundamental investors use (e.g. good macro data, good financial statements, a clear corporate governance framework, a stable regulatory environment, a market discount rate) and so no matter what people say, there are no fundamental investing here. There is only speculation, and the two things above all that drive the markets are those old speculator favorites, changes in underlying liquidity and government signaling"
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:29 am
What is easiest is rarely the correct path; in my experience.
I'd agree. Viewing the landscape helps however. What I meant is that it's impossible to change something in a world that you refuse to see, except by dumb luck.
OT: Since is about to get pigged, I'll reiterate again that people should go read the American Banker article "Postponing the Day of Reckoning" if you are into RE at all, here is my blog post with a link to the article which requires free registration.
On topic: It seems to me that traffic is holding close to where it was, but that the average bill per diner is down.
I do believe that fast food has taken some market share from sit down restaurants, but not that much in the sense that a large percentage of Americans "eat out" only at the drive through window.
Both the chains and the independents seem to be focusing on value in the meal offerings. Many specials are the norm, as are package deals including an appetizer and/or dessert with the entree.
I expect holiday party bookings to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. 2008 bookings were way down from 2007 and even 2007 was down from 2006. People are booking already, but I expect a bell to ring on Labor Day.
The 19% number quoted above just strikes me as ridiculous. I notice there was no cite, nor any support for it.
If you want to know about levels of food consumption, I think SYSCO is the biggest wholesaler.
Would you mind citing some examples of "innocent queries" that got people convicted of something? Real cases, not hypothetical scenarios. Thanks-
The cases I'm aware of were the ones involving murder, the hit-and-run, and the wireless hacker. These people were all proven guilty, most likely irrespective of their search history. The case of Robert Petrick, who killed his wife and researched it pretty thoroughly on Google in advance, probably had the greatest weight placed on Google searches, in my opinion.
My concern is always the hypotheticals. Like what if I'm feel nauseous in the morning, so when I get to work I search "carbon monoxide poisoning"? If, heaven forbid, something actually went wrong with my furnace and something happened to my family, how would that look to prosecutors?
At that point it wouldn't much matter to me in the slightest, as the loss of my freedom would be inconsequential in comparison to the loss of my family, but it could be a problem in lesser circumstances. I just prefer not to tempt fate, I suppose, especially around an issue so easy to mitigate.
...I also wonder what we are doing now in Afghanistan.
Same reasons FDR dragged us into WWII. It lowers unemployment and the huge government procurement contracts stimulate the economy.
homegnome
i dont know what it says about you but i want a whooper l love whoopers. and i must not go get a whooper, tomorrow is shopping day. and i will even get my whooper without a coupon.
now what does that say about me?
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:41 pm
The cases I'm aware of were the ones involving murder, the hit-and-run, and the wireless hacker. These people were all proven guilty, most likely irrespective of their search history. The case of Robert Petrick, who killed his wife and researched it pretty thoroughly on Google in advance, probably had the greatest weight placed on Google searches, in my opinion.
My concern is always the hypotheticals. Like what if I'm feel nauseous in the morning, so when I get to work I search "carbon monoxide poisoning"? If, heaven forbid, something actually went wrong with my furnace and something happened to my family, how would that look to prosecutors?
At that point it wouldn't much matter to me in the slightest, as the loss of my freedom would be inconsequential in comparison to the loss of my family, but it could be a problem in lesser circumstances. I just prefer not to tempt fate, I suppose, especially around an issue so easy to mitigate.
In the case of Petrick, those don't sound like innocent queries. In your latter hypothetical case, it might be suspicious if you researched CO poisoning in May, and the furnace crapped out in June, but if you were already sick and the furnace was already on the fritz, and you just didn't find out in time, then not so much. I'd suspect that you'd have quite a bit of residual CO in your system, and it could be demonstrated that the furnace had been going bad for awhile. I guess I'm trying to say that you seem a bit paranoid, and it's probably a
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:44 am
Re: What is easiest is rarely the correct path; in my experience
But "correct" implies morals. Morals are for the dumbasses. Let them worry about what's correct.
I'm pragmatic. You can't "change" anything unless you acknowledge the reality that is there first. The "As Is" system not as you would like it to be or appear, but the system as it actually is. You can't even begin to do anything but smoke and see visions of change until you do that. The problem is that acknowledging the system as it is would throw us into septic shock.
azurite (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:45 pm
You mean like during the 1950's, when HUAC & McCarthy were active?
il⋅lu⋅sion
/ɪˈluʒən/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [i-loo-zhuhn] Show IPA –noun
1. something that deceives by producing a false or misleading impression of reality.
2. the state or condition of being deceived; misapprehension.
3. an instance of being deceived.
BTW, I don't believe that anyone brought before McCarthy has ever been proved innocent, not to say that he was correct in his proceedings.
i know that i have a very interesting history on my computer its just that one thing leads to another.its a research tool dammit. better than any encyalopedia collecting dust in library.
"As a result of the negative economic impacts on consumer spending trends, fewer American families are dining away from home compared to the prior year. According to an August 17, 2009 report in Nation’s Restaurant News, restaurant guest traffic counts have declined 7% for the total restaurant sector, with a 6% decline in the quick service segment, 12% decline in midscale dining, and a 13% decline in the casual dining segment."
I'd suspect that you'd have quite a bit of residual CO in your system, and it could be demonstrated that the furnace had been going bad for awhile. I guess I'm trying to say that you seem a bit paranoid, and it's probably a Nothingburger
I'm not particularly paranoid, at least I don't think I am, but I suppose I'd be the last to know.
My real concern is simply that I'm incredibly curious, and I use all kinds of search queries. Most could be easily explained, but I suppose I've been brainwashed by too many Hollywood movies where an innocent suspect's credibility is put into question by some incredibly random stroke of bad luck/coincidence (perhaps an unexplainable search query), and he has to spend an inordinate amount of time restoring his freedom and reputation.
Re: The problem is that acknowledging the system as it is would throw us into septic shock.
Yes, I agree. I guess I look at the current system as being "unchangeable" BUT it's still important for the non-peasants (and non-dumbasses) to adjust their lives to account for the reality that the US isn't a Representative Democracy (and hasn't been one for at least 60 years).
You are right, tho, about the "septic shock" thing. There's no chance that the REAL Merica peasants could comprehend this, without it destroying the society and leading to instant fascism.
Getting back to the real topic at hand, someone earlier mentioned a 19% drop in total food demand, and both Pavel and I were interested in the original source for that number. Has anyone seen that anywhere?
"Getting back to the real topic at hand, someone earlier mentioned a 19% drop in total food demand, and both Pavel and I were interested in the original source for that number."
Proven innocent? As in charges were filed, a grand jury indicted, there was a trial (whether by jury or judge, as the defendant chose) and a conviction? That was one of the issues of HUAC, it was being used as a judge/jury but without benefit of the due process that supposedly is important in the US before depriving a person of life, liberty or property. Except, of course, when it's not. Like now.
Just that you use the term, "proven innocent" when talking about someone acting allegedly as a legislative fact-finder (i.e, not a grand jury, etc.)--is troubling. As far as I know, no one needs to be proven "innocent" rather the burden is on the accuser to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that a defendant is guilty of a crime. Big difference, don't you think?
One of the most disappointing (to put it mildly) acts of the Obama administration so far, for me, has been its assumption of pretty much every one of the Bush Administration's abrogations or implicit (if not explicit) repeals of various provisions of the Constitution and duly ratified treaties.
"Getting back to the real topic at hand, someone earlier mentioned a 19% drop in total food demand, and both Pavel and I were interested in the original source for that number."
Looks plausible to me...
Wheat (W, CBOT): Weekly Price Chart
Definitely a pull back, but suppose I wish there was a way to disaggregate the 'price' metric.
Like why was the price so strong in mid-2008 when any underlying demand trends were little different than previous months/quarters/years?
I've been trying to figure out that dynamic since before it crested, and I've made little progress. I just don't understand the market mechanism well enough to figure out how vast sums of money flowing in could change the underlying value of the commodities. Everyone should have been getting absolutely slaughtered when contracts rolled over and price (supposedly) converged, but it didn't seem to be happening.
Blackhalo,
Food demand increases constantly. There are 200k more people each day. An increasing population in Asia is a protein based consumers (meat eaters), which exponentially increases demand for plant based products.
I served on a jury last year with a guy that thought we had to find the defendant guilty unless the defense proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was innocent--he thought that was a bedrock principle of our legal system.
But at least there, charges were brought. Try proving yourself innocent of unspecified charges....
There are positives to having food allergies - one tends to avoid restaurants, which are expensive and usually less wholesome than home cooked meals at home. Also, you never know what's being done in the kitchen.
Food demand increases constantly. There are 200k more people each day. An increasing population in Asia is a protein based consumers (meat eaters), which exponentially increases demand for plant based products.
It's true, but that's been the case since the mid-1970's. It always happens just slightly slower than the growth in productivity, which is why we pay only slightly more for a bushel of wheat today than we did in 1850. Maybe triple at most, and what would the cost of most anything else have done in the intervening 150 years?
Edit: I was reading "Nature's Metropolis", which was quoting Chicago market prices at around $0.85-0.90/bu for wheat in 1840 or so. I suppose this is slightly more than triple with today's prices, but I remember the prices in 2005, and it's merely 2.5 times that.
Re: there was a load spike on the server a few minutes before 10 PT
Trust me, it's almost ALWAYS the database's fault.
Edit: or badly written queries OR queries written that assume indexes are presents - which aren't - but, regardless, it's usually the database sucking up the processor reading through too may row to find the ones it actually needs.
Growth beyond the ability of the arable terrain to sustain the population is routine over the course of human history.
This age is the first time in human history that we have the ability to artificially augment the productive capacity of arable terrain on a broad, cost effective scale and remove this constraint.
Our current agricultural practices do indeed impose costs; movement toward over-reliance on a single pesticide, glyphosate, is what keeps me up at night far more than capacity constraints.
Brazil alone is capable of meeting global food demands over the next few decades. With the exception of Western Europe and USA/Canada/Australia/New Zealand, there are HUGE increases in productivity that can be made all over the world.
We may eat ourselves out of a planet, but we're decades away from it right now.
We may eat ourselves out of a planet, but we're decades away from it right now.
Supply chain disruptions will cause major population collapses long before then. Our modern constraint is energy and other raw industrial materials, not food.
Noob, the linked article imposed a number of questions I hadn't considered head-on regarding contemporary farming and its future. I was as confident as you are. Rather less so now.
Admittedly, it's been a while since Con Law II, and these days the only part of the Constitution that routinely impacts my practice is Article I, section 8, but I'm pretty sure that the constitutional protections afforded to the "protected classes" you mention generally apply only to government action. The 14th amendment extended most provisions of the Bill of Rights to apply to other government entities besides the feds, but not to private actors.
of course, any self-respecting doomer knows that the final chapter of peak oil is the sad realization that wasting fossil fuels on automotive fuel is ridiculous when the stuff should be used for soil. that may be a century off, however.
Did anyone make any progress on investigating the validity of the 19% drop in food consumption?
1. Is that in dollars? Euros? or is it weight & volume?
2. What's the time period involve?
3. Is that worldwide or US?
4. Is that extrapolated from a narrow study by some PhD, or is it from a federal agency survey? Margins of Errors?
A relatively high level of exchange of materials is required to sustain the (temporary) increase in carrying capacity...one danger sign would be significant reductions in interanational trade flows - phew!
First Pixar and now Marvel. I hope they don't screw up two very good things given what they have done with their own animation business, but I do look forward to Heroland...
Supply chain disruptions will cause major population collapses long before then. Our modern constraint is energy and other raw industrial materials, not food.
Toward that I have no argument, but it won't be due to agricultural capacity being tapped out. While subjects like 'Food Security' are only tepidly addressed by people at the current time, there's a reason why the Europeans spend billions and billions propping up their domestic agriculture industry. They remember what it's like to go hungry due to 'supply disruptions' and want to keep some farms close to home.
Noob, the linked article imposed a number of questions I hadn't considered head-on regarding contemporary farming and its future. I was as confident as you are. Rather less so now.
I'm reading it now, thanks for it! I'll post my thoughts in a later thread when I finish.
"There are positives to having food allergies - one tends to avoid restaurants, which are expensive and usually less wholesome than home cooked meals at home. Also, you never know what's being done in the kitchen. "
They got rats that come out at night in a lot of restaurants. One of the Obamas favorite restaurants in DC was closed for rat catching purposes a few months back.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 1:49 pm
Toward that I have no argument, but it won't be due to agricultural capacity being tapped out.
Not directly, but I think the complexity of the modern agricultural enterprise is going to make it vulnerable to early disruption. Raw carrying capacity being overwhelmed versus curve-shifters failing to materialize isn't going to look too different from an on-the-ground perspective.
of course, any self-respecting doomer knows that the final chapter of peak oil is the sad realization that wasting fossil fuels on automotive fuel is ridiculous when the stuff should be used for soil. that may be a century off, however.
Agriculture does have the capacity to grow it's own fuel, as well. It's been done before during previous fuel shortages, and is not particularly difficult.
This would negatively impact total productivity, of course, as a portion would have to be used for fuel, but at least food would keep growing. It would just be more expensive.
........the REAL food problems are already upon us........can everyone spell M-O-N-S-A-N-T-O
Monsanto's a . While everyone likes to think of them as pure evil, the rest of agriculture likes them because they a) make decent products and b) take the heat off the rest of the sector so that we don't have to explain where everyone's food comes from. I've got no love for that company, but most of what they're accused of is either ridiculous or a complete non-issue to people who actually work in agriculture.
Agriculture is not benign, and has some very significant problems, but without it we'd still be clustered around the tropical regions, fighting for our lives against wild animals and living to the ripe old age of 25.
Not directly, but I think the complexity of the modern agricultural enterprise is going to make it vulnerable to early disruption. Raw carrying capacity being overwhelmed versus curve-shifters failing to materialize isn't going to look too different from an on-the-ground perspective.
Absolutely! The biggest disruption is that we haven't had a major North American drought in decades, and we're due. Since we're pretty much the breadbasket of the world and we currently do not carry much of anything in terms of grain reserves anymore, a serious one year drought would probably result in significant hardship for many people.
We've been living in a goldilocks weather pattern for many years now, and farmers/politicians/consumers have almost forgotten what a real true continent-wide drought is like. Farmers are much like bankers, in some respects. Since we haven't had a huge drought in decades, it starts to fall off the radar in terms of disaster-planning scenarios. Mother nature has a habit of reminding us when we haven't been appropriately valuing her level of risk.
.........the issues brought up in the linked documentary seemed quite alarming (The Future of Food). That is bunk?
I certainly wouldn't call them 'bunk'. Soil compaction is a very old issue, and industrialized agriculture has been trying to find ways to mitigate it for many years now. Tracked equipment, wide tires, very wide implements to reduce passes, etc generally have begun to reverse the damage. Most importantly, farmers are aware of the problem of soil compaction and get very antsy about going over the soil too frequently or with too heavy equipment. It'll start getting better, even with big equipment, as farmers and manufactures focus closely on PSI on soil. Certainly, no self-respecting farmer goes out an 'mucks around' in the spring anymore, as this does far more damage than economic impact of just leaving the field alone.
The problem of erosion in China is also very real, and decades old. There are, in all seriousness, mountains made out of topsoil, all from wind erosion, in China. I can't speak for their production systems, but they have a great deal of housekeeping of their own to do in order to begin restoring the damage. I know nothing about the Sahara buffer problem, although Africa itself is starting to get better as varieties and cropping practices are developed explicitly for them, and not just taken from another inappropriate locale and adopted there. That is a decades-long problem yet to be solved.
Brazil is interesting, and there are some very large, skilled operators within that country, and so far they've been pretty good at what they do. The biggest problem within that country, and one that's much better now than 15 years ago, is internal infrastructure for processing and moving the harvest.
"The Future of Food" had to do with Monsanto's patenting of living organisms, specifically gene-altered seed stock. If a Monsanto "Roundup-Ready" Soybean seed blew off an adjoining Monsanto farm, any place that that seed carried was then owned by Monsanto. Monsanto after being successful in gaining patents on seeds, commenced to patent 23,000 other types of seed.
"The Future of Food" had to do with Monsanto's patenting of living organisms, specifically gene-altered seed stock. If a Monsanto "Roundup-Ready" Soybean seed blew off an adjoining Monsanto farm, any place that that seed carried was then owned by Monsanto. Monsanto after being successful in gaining patents on seeds, commenced to patent 23,000 other types of seed.
I appreciate that, and I've been asked that before on more than one occasion. I guess I contrast that to breeds where farmers can 'save their seed' and don't buy it every year. When I look at historic yield trends for patented seed vs 'public' (for lack of a better word) seed, there is no future in having 'open source' seed. No one will invest the millions in a research program if they can't capture the results, and so farm productivity increases will cease relatively quickly.
The cross-contamination problem between Roundup Ready canola on one field and conventional canola on another is a serious problem from a legal perspective, but few farmers would want to return to conventional crops when they've had a chance to grow glyphosate-resistant ones. There is some market for conventional (i.e. non-GMO) crops, but they rarely pay high enough returns to warrant the extra expense and yield variability from growing them.
GMO crops usually demand fewer passes on your field to control weeds, fewer expenses on pesticides, and fewer headaches on which pesticides to use on which crops at which times. If it didn't create higher returns, no farmer would use them and purchase the seed every year. Farmers are also used to this; they've been buying hybrid corn seed every year for more than sixty years.
Monsanto after being successful in gaining patents on seeds, commenced to patent 23,000 other types of seed.
Oh, and I should say that this is incredibly ugly and should be repugnant to most anyone. However, the silver lining could be that since these are now patented, there is a specific time limit by which these patents should expire, and at which point could not be patented again.
nemos first!
Correction over! Yay.... everyone bought at 1015 on SPX, right?
i dont know what is going on with edit, i clickyed and it sloooooooowy loaded so slow that i went to post new comment . edit loaded took down post new comment and took down edit comment and i am back on post new comment.
and i forgot what i was going to say!!
edit loaded very good this time.and i remembered what i was going to say since i really to want to be on or close to the topic under discussion. really
it has been years since i have been to anything other than a fast food, place.i havent been doing my bit to help the economy. does golden corral, red lobester, ruby tues,cracker barrel count as restaurants?
I just don't understand the whole "It's not contracting as fast" thing. If you have a car that is only losing 1 quart a day v. 3 quarts - that is good? You can keep pouring oil in but the rings are going to go eventually.
Based on personal experience
"The cook must have put the green shoots in the soup."
No, there are probably 2 reasons for the RPI upticks recently. The first is divorces have probably increased, so some men are eating out more, and 2) families are realizing that they really don't know how to cook. Instead of cooking, everyone gets the all you can shovel down pasta bowls.
(maybe a third there is an increase of people who bought homes where the previous owner was entitled to the appliances)
eric
everyday the American people dollar cost average thru their 201k.
OT but related to whose going to pay. It was announced this morning that the Commanding General in Afganistan says we need to double their military and police to 300,000 and we will be there in one form or another for ten years with the first two in active operations.. My question is who is going to pay their salaries and equipment let alone the other costs of their government. How can our economy carry such a load for so long? Sorry about this off topic item but it just makes me mad when no one in the MSM recognizes the economic costs of these operations even if only to the extent of commenting upon it.
interesting action in the 10 year.
"Bennnn... Where are you???"
nincom
Your kids are paying for it. Don't worry enjoy your margarita
Just plain old food consumption in the US is down 19% year over year. Do you think that those consuming less are going to restaurants more often?
Guess there's no money for eating out, all going on debt service minima and of course stocks to take advantage of this great bull run.
C
/ho hum, long end of the bond curve blowing out.
OT: Anyone worried about this?
Bill would give president emergency control of Internet | Politics and Law - CNET News
"August 28, 2009 12:34 AM PDT
Bill would give president emergency control of Internet
Internet companies and civil liberties groups were alarmed this spring when a U.S. Senate bill proposed handing the White House the power to disconnect private-sector computers from the Internet.
They're not much happier about a revised version that aides to Sen. Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat, have spent months drafting behind closed doors. CNET News has obtained a copy of the 55-page draft of S.773 (excerpt), which still appears to permit the president to seize temporary control of private-sector networks during a so-called cybersecurity emergency."
C
Considering the YEN action last night, the election and the long bond today we may be seeing a turning point.
Timmay hates it when the Asians don't play fair.
It is all because of all the Obama survival gardens! Coming next, raise the taxes on seeds!
Cinco-x
Lets all hope we know a paper trader on the NYSE floor.
Cinco-X,
Been worried about it for awhile. This bill isn't really new, consider it the Internet-Patriot Act. I'm not sure it'll pass now, but when something happens ie. "this got hacked and resulted in large losses of money", I'll be concerned that it will pass ala Patriot Act.
if you really want to get mad read "Descent in Chaos" by Ahmed Rashid.
There was a brief window of opportunity in 2002 when a little bit of US focus could have settled the problem. Instead GWB decided to go off on his little Middle Eastern adventure. The true cost of the will be not the money and lives lost in Iraq but the money and lives that will be lost in Afghanistan. That is the next Vietnam. We can't leave because that will be a defeat at the hand of the Islamic fundamentalism. Unlike the Vietnam domino theory (bunch of nonsense) a defeat in Afghanistan could have serious implications with regard to Pakistan who unlike Saddam Hussain actually do have nuclear weapons.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:19 am
I just don't understand the whole "It's not contracting as fast" thing. If you have a car that is only losing 1 quart a day v. 3 quarts - that is good? You can keep pouring oil in but the rings are going to go eventually.
Based on personal experience
Had a similar experience with an old Plymouth. When it was leaking a quart per tank of gas, it wasn't too bad, when it leaked 3 quarts per tank of gas, it was done. Relative "badness" is a reality, and when the other alternative was to buy a $500 car when I only had $50, a quart per tankful didn't seem too bad.
cinco-x where the hell was the gas going. Usually it leaks into the cabin right?
This past Saturday I went with three friends to the Gardens, a pricey eatery in the Westwood district of Los Angeles. I saw a crowd of overwhelmingly blue-haired Holmby Hills types. By 8:30, when we were finished eating, there was only ONE table occupied in the entire restaurant. On Saturday night, at 8:30 p.m.. I commented on it, but my companions didn't seem to grasp the significance.
could this be realistic.
Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong
News and Business.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:33 am
cinco-x where the hell was the gas going. Usually it leaks into the cabin right?
Huh!? Gas residue and oil both went out the tailpipe; I'm not humor impaired, but I don't get what you're driving at-
cinco-x,
Yep. Could not afford to do anything but run it until it drops. My labored analogy is that all they are doing is pouring that cheapo - "Stop Oil Leaks" you can buy at the auto store and hoping they can get another 10k miles out of the economy.
not really- what would like to happen during a cyber security emergency? Have all system crash? I believe they already have that kind of authority with regard to cell phones - the government has the authority to commandeer capacity for use in an emergency. The President has the power to suspend habeas corpus in a national emergency- can't get more fundamental than that.
BTW were you as outraged and concerned when habeas corpus was suspended for a US citizen who was locked up indefinitely without trial? Or was that OK because it was Republican President doing it ?
gabyjan,
Why is it in China's interests to get involved in Afghanistan? Saw analysis that says most likely its prep for a war versus the Uigurs?
Can't understand why the political will hasn't turned against Afghanistan.
I believe they already have that kind of authority
Correct. The people getting their panties in a bunch need to chill.
Next think you know someone is arguing to take down financial blogosphere, since it represents an economic threat to national security...
Restaurants are definitely going to be slow, I have a friend that owns a restaurant and the amount of people going out to eat has surely declined. Not many people are willing to spend the extra buck on luxury of eating out.
-Michael Fridman
The “MAN” Experience
gabyjan - not entirely a feint, some pipeline politics involved. Long-term, low-radar visibility stuff.
C
If we turn in this old economy for a new one can we get a $68 trillion rebate under the program?
Who wants to eat after seeing a failing investment report.
Not the right time for food.
And yet the obesity level rises... what's the deal here?
Cinco X
Not an insult. I was thinking you were talking about oil not gasoline. Anyways that stop radiator leak works pretty well.
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 9:43 am
If we turn in this old economy for a new one can we get a $68 trillion rebate under the program?
LOL, nice. I'm worried about this cash-for-clunkers program pushing demand forward though. We might get a newer and more efficient economy well in advance of when we need it, plus there is the problem of disposing of the old economy. We are destroying the old engines so they cannot be used again, but what will we do with the remaining usable parts?
University is back in session here in AZ, restaurant trade still soft.
When the strip club trade turns around, then we'll know we're out of the soup.
why dine out when Uncle Sam buys the good stuff!
9NEWS.com | Colorado's Online News Leader | Taxpayer money used for crab legs and more
Breakfast with Dave:
At the lows in the equity market last March, the S&P 500 was de facto pricing in -2.5% real GDP and $50 of operating earnings for the year. Guess what? Far from being grossly undervalued at the lows (though some stocks were — especially the financials, which were priced for bankruptcy) the market at the lows was fairly priced on a price-to-book and price-to-earnings basis. Usually at bear market lows, the S&P 500 goes to silly cheap levels. It never did this time around, and five months and 50% later, there is yet again, in 2007-style, tremendous risk in this market. Never before has the stock market surged this far, this fast, between the time of the low and the time the recession (supposedly) ended. What is “normal” is that the rally-ahead-of-the-recovery is 20%. This market is now trading as if we are in the second half of a recovery phase and yet it is not even been fully ascertained that the downturn is over — a one-quarter spurt in automotive production and sales induced by Cash-for-Clunkers is not enough to support the widespread assertion that the recession is behind us (the odds of a fourth quarter relapse, especially in the U.S. consumer, are non-trivial).
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:37 am
cinco-x,
Yep. Could not afford to do anything but run it until it drops. My labored analogy is that all they are doing is pouring that cheapo - "Stop Oil Leaks" you can buy at the auto store and hoping they can get another 10k miles out of the economy
Right; glad those days are behind......for the car anyway
Owner of one of the best value, non-franchised, and highest traffic restarurants in the area for the last 25 years is reporting much lower revenues and complaining about the $45,000 in property taxes for his 2500 sq ft building. Heard that to counter the problem, he is serving less food for the same price. Ouch! That has to hurt business and his remaining customers.
asswipe
Exactly I never thought that the market was pricing in A true depression or even a japan like recession. IMO it was a sample of what was to come.
Ok, UST long end observation: the mild tightening in overnight trading blew out at 0800 eastern with a first spike, then eased, with the 10 and long bond spiking again at 0945 on PMI release. Jansen is referring to "carnage", which is not a casual term for him. Could be an interesting day.
Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance
C
Money managers unloaded a record amount of consumer discretionary shares compared with the industry’s market value in the 20 trading days ended Aug. 20, according to data from Boston-based State Street, the world’s largest investor for institutions.
Interesting ...from Bloomberg.
Funds Dump Retail Shares as Cash Flows From Fortune (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
They became net sellers of consumer stocks a month after U.S. equities began to rebound in March, according to the data, which stretches back to 1995. At the same time, they bought $2.7 billion of financial companies’ stocks, the highest percentage of any group.
Shares of Nordstrom, the Seattle-based department-store chain, slipped 3.6 percent in 1995 and fell 13 percent in 1996. As the stock rallied 132 percent since March, institutional investors pared their stakes by 3 percent last quarter, regulatory filings compiled by Bloomberg show.
London-based Schroders, Standard Life Plc, located in Edinburgh, and the Austin, Texas-based Teacher Retirement System of Texas, which together oversee more than $500 billion, were among more than 80 mutual funds, insurers and pensions that cut their holdings by at least half since April, the data show.
Wow, CR snark at the end of the post.
I like
I noticed a number of restaurants closing down in my neighborhood (Queens, NY), this must really be effecting their income.
Mr Slippery makes another donation to Hoocoodanode.
Ed
"When We were Queens"
restaurants...How are the chains going to survive if they can't borrow. Most of them expanded in the last few years... The Cheesecake Factory alone must create a billion lbs. of fat for the us economy every year
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. - Google Finance
Recessions are bad for restaurant patrons--the menu is either changed, portions are smaller, quantity is reduced or all of the above.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:41 am
Next think you know someone is arguing to take down financial blogosphere, since it represents an economic threat to national security...
Right; that's the more surgical approach. If they already have the authority as some seem to argue, then why are they diddling with yet another piece of legislation? It's almost certainly to grab even more control over free speech. It seems that just being able to have the major networks refuse to air ads criticizing the Obama health-care plan is not enough; they now want to control the discussions on the internet. This is not the American I remember-
Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 7:40 am
I believe they already have that kind of authority
Correct. The people getting their panties in a bunch need to chill.
Yeah sure, why should people get worked up about issuing licenses for printing presses and making a federal certification for printing press operator.
We should all just lie back and contemplate what color we could paint the ceiling next. It's already that way, why improve anything. God forbid anyone wake up and demand positive change.
Nothing like apologizing for the machinery of tyranny while painting yourself as the voice of rationality.
Aug. 27 - Aug. 31: Up 443.69% sighs
Mel et al
Maybe consumers have figured out that most chain restaurant food is available in the frozen food isle.
Basel
Don't tell me they are going to pump that thing.
cinco-x,
The America I remember didn't have the Internet.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:02 am
cinco-x,
The America I remember didn't have the Internet.
Did it have at least the illusion of free speech?
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:02 am
The America I remember didn't have the Internet.
And it was steered into a neocolonial ditch for 50 years by mass media creating a false sense of national concensus at the behest of the people who issued their broadcast licenses. Nothing like a little "be the voice of patriotism OR ELSE" after 9/11 to make it clear just how the game was played.
Ya but! things are getting better, the bobble head on the Tee - Vee said so, so it must be true.
The America I remember was a quiet place
As long as you were of the white race
When gas was cheap and so were my jeans
and only teleevanglists had money making schemes
Has it made it to Beckley, WV? Inquiring minds want to know.
C
Mel (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:59 am
Recessions are bad for restaurant patrons--the menu is either changed, portions are smaller, quantity is reduced or all of the above.
I don't know that smaller portions would necessarily be bad for patrons at most restaurants. The expensive ones already have more reasonably sized portions, and their customers probably aren't hurting as much as those of the "value oriented" restaurants whose main appeal is large, fat laden meals to provide a "more filling" experience
News has always been as honest and accurate as Advertisers would allow.
The Authors Guild has entered into an agreement with Axis Pro, the world's leading underwriter of media liability insurance, to offer Guild members professional liability insurance. Freelance writing, blogging and book authorship are insured under this program for claims of libel, invasion of privacy, copyright or trademark infringement, plagiarism, errors & omissions and other related risks.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:07 am
News has always been as honest and accurate as Advertisers would allow.
We're talking about potential advertisers being shut out of the market, not about network news. Where I live, one of the locals took out a full page add in the local newspaper when the Town Selectmen were trying to do something he thought was underhanded; Do you think the paper should have the right to censor his views if they didn't jibe with those of their editorial staff? Didn't this administration talk about reactivating the equal time requirement for talk radio?
See the ISM index went to 50 (no expansion, no contraction - stuck at low levels). Can't recall where I saw an article that when (if) manufacturing does pick up, suppliers (especially small suppliers) may not be in a postion to supply parts, as they have no inventory, no raw materials, no workers, and no access to lines of credit to start back up production.
cinco-x,
I know what you mean. I also know that for me, the good old days were mostly because I was young and believed in the triumph of good over evil.
Writer's Guild:
Freelance writing, blogging and book authorship are insured under this program for claims of libel, invasion of privacy, copyright or trademark infringement, plagiarism, errors & omissions and other related risks.
Join the Guild
Current membership: In order to be eligible for Current membership a writer must acquire a minimum of 24 units in the three years preceding application. Upon final qualification for Current membership, an initiation fee of $2,500 is due, payable to the Writers Guild of America, West.
SCHEDULE OF UNITS*
Two Units
For each complete week of employment within the Guild's jurisdiction on a week-to-week basis.
Three Units
Story for a radio or television program less than 30 minutes shall be prorated in increments of 10 minutes or less.
Four Units
Story for a short subject theatrical motion picture of any length or for a radio or television program or breakdown for a non-primetime serial 30 minutes through 60 minutes.
Six Units
Teleplay or radio play less than 30 minutes shall be prorated in five-minute increments;
Television format for a new serial or series;
“Created By” credit given pursuant to the separation of rights provisions of the WGA Theatrical and Television Basic Agreement in addition to other units accrued for the literary material on which the “Created By” credit is based.
Eight Units
Story for a radio or television program or breakdown for a non-primetime serial more than 60 minutes and less than 90 minutes;
Screenplay for a short subject theatrical motion picture or for a radio play or teleplay 30 minutes through 60 minutes.
12 Units
Story for a radio or television program 90 minutes or longer or story for a feature-length theatrical motion picture; or breakdown for a non-primetime serial 90 minutes or longer.
Radio play or teleplay more than 60 minutes and less than 90 minutes.
24 Units
Screenplay for a feature-length theatrical motion picture; radio play or teleplay 90 minutes or longer;
Long-term story projection, which is defined for this purpose as a bible, for a specified term, on an existing, five times per week non-prime time serial;
Bible for any television serial or primetime miniseries of at least four hours.
A Rewrite
One-half the number of units allotted to the applicable category of work.
A Polish
One-quarter the number of units allotted to the applicable category of work.
An Option
One-half the number of units allotted to the applicable category of work subject to a maximum entitlement of eight such units per project in any one year. An extension or renewal of the same option shall not be accorded additional units. If an option on previously unexploited literary material is exercised, the sale of this material is accorded the number of units applicable to the work minus the number of units accorded to the option of the same material.
So far, this isn't borne out by what I'm seeing. One of my favorite lunch places is a small family-owned Italian restaurant. The recession has induced the owner to devise weekly specials--new dishes!--for $10, a noticeable leg down on the cost. To lure in the declining business, he's freshened up his menu and pulled down the prices. Unfortunately, his $6,000 monthly rent for his small space hasn't gone down.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:11 am
cinco-x,
I know what you mean. I also know that for me, the good old days were mostly because I was young and believed in the triumph of good over evil.
Despite having both kids nearly grown a being a decade or so from where I'd once hoped to retire, I still refuse to grow up
I'm still a believer-
Associate membership is available for a total of three years at a cost of $75 per year.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:14 am
Associate membership is available for a total of three years at a cost of $75 per year.
Are you suggesting that we need that for spouting our views on this comments page?
"Do you think the paper should have the right to censor his views if they didn't jibe with those of their editorial staff? "
It is their paper and the freedom of speech to print what they want and live with the results. They are a business and will be sensitive to their revenue stream. That is why the internet is killing print media. Anybody can post their view honest or loaded to their cause. Freedom becomes an even bigger buyer beware.
some of the guys at my office still try to go out to lunch 3-4 times a week at local places (no chains) and one thing we have noticed is that the help is better - maybe the restaurents are getting a higher quality employee (with job losses elsewhere) or lower patronage means they have more time to service us.
cinco-x,
No, I thought CR and others who write might be interested in it. There is also a Writers Guild.
We are protected because we are untraceable - in theory, sort of.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:14 am
Associate membership is available for a total of three years at a cost of $75 per year.
Does that mean anything, though? I am or was a member of several such guilds / assn, and the associate memberships were always catchbasins for "aspirational" individuals. Maybe H-Hack can clarify.
We really need to found a press syndicate if we want the protection one affords.
I still refuse to grow up I'm still a believer-
Cinco-x, I am glad for you. It is a good thing to hold tight too
nova - untraceable?! LOL. The amount of information barfed up into the blogosphere makes it a pretty simple proposition to work out who some posters are.
C
wally
some people eat when they are upset, maybe thats part of it or maybe even a lot of it.
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:16 am
It is their paper and the freedom of speech to print what they want and live with the results. They are a business and will be sensitive to their revenue stream. That is why the internet is killing print media. Anybody can post their view honest or loaded to their cause. Freedom becomes an even bigger buyer beware.
Perhaps Liz or someone else with some legal expertise will comment; in the meantime, it's my recollection that if I have money and walk into a store to buy something, they have to sell it to me. It's discriminatory not to do so. How is a newspaper different? If I want to advertise, and their business model involves selling advertisements, how can they refuse to sell me add space if I'm not doing something that breaks the law? Extend that principle to TV-
According to the group's 2009 Online Buyer Economic Trend Study, 53 percent of women said that their economic situation is worse than a year ago. Just 38 percent of men said they were worse off a year ago.
The pessimism among women raises concern, as marketers consider women to be responsible for more than 80 percent of household purchases
"What's more, 73% of women said the recession has fundamentally changed the way they think about saving and spending money vs. 57% of men," according to Advertising Age.
Financial Armageddon
Lotsa green shoots deleveraging going on and the hoi-unempolloied are not exactly buying equities even in 401ks.
The recalibration is still in full swing. Buddy of mine just liquidated his IRA - hardship withdrawal.
The Great ReCalibration!
".......the Commanding General in Afganistan says we need to double their [actually by doubling OURS] military and police to 300,000 and we will be there in one form or another for ten years with the first two in active operations."
YES! Viet Nam again - can we "get it right" this time?
Advertising and media for the herd. You want to take a few minutes and think "outside of the box" for a bit? It might be a little unnerving - but entirely safe (I warned you).........buckle-up.......
ECONOMICROT
beep boop chirp
Just plain old food consumption in the US is down 19% year over year. Do you think that those consuming less are going to restaurants more often?
Where did you see this number? This is relevant to my interests
New Pettis: It’s not yet the end of China’s massive stimulus
August 31st, 2009 by Michael Pettis | No Comments | Filed in Consumption and production, Fiscal stimulus
Cinco, unless the reason they won't sell to you is based on "invidious discrimination" against a suspect class, the store can refuse to sell to you. Television is controlled by the FCC because the airwaves are deemed a public asset. Newspapers are not controlled at all. They can absolutely refuse to sell space to someone.
I shoulda edited--restaurants lower quality during recessions--even good restaurants use lesser cuts of meat--especially if sauce is also used.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:26 am
YES! Viet Nam again - can we "get it right" this time?
The only way to win the Afghanistan game is, don't play. The cost to stabilize it is vastly higher than its native economic potential. You go there and spend fortunes chasing tribesmen who have nothing - literally - better to do than fight you. Then you run out of money and go away. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Cinco-X,
No you can refuse to do business with anyone. Being in the car business I would on occasion come accrossed people who want to do unsafe or rigged repairs. I have the right to not do them as I become the responsible party for the results if it fails. Would you take an ad from a one time customer against a daily full page advertiser who would cancel their ad program if you ran the hit piece? That would be a real hit to your bottom line that is hard to overcome. Business pressure can be applied.
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:01 am
YLSP (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:41 am
Next think you know someone is arguing to take down financial blogosphere, since it represents an economic threat to national security...
Right; that's the more surgical approach. If they already have the authority as some seem to argue, then why are they diddling with yet another piece of legislation? It's almost certainly to grab even more control over free speech. It seems that just being able to have the major networks refuse to air ads criticizing the Obama health-care plan is not enough; they now want to control the discussions on the internet. This is not the American I remember-
Free speech will have to go in the interests of the state. It's lucky for us that we just so happen to have developed massive data mining operations and surveillance methods for catching potential terrorists and kiddie-porn purveyors which can be adapted cheaply and quickly to work for other purposes. Talk about a lucky break!
The ticker networks are far more of an economic threat to national security
The Writers Guild still has not caught up with the changes in the media. A blog is as big a book now in some ways.
CR, in many ways, is running a succesful major newspaper for instance.
The amount of information barfed up into the blogosphere makes it a pretty simple proposition to work out who some posters are.
It would take an extreme amount of work to hide your identity. Even then, can you really trust the TOR nodes you proxy through?
Fortunately for me, I am of no significance.
I completely agree. I discovered a blogger Fabius Maximus who provides good analysis as to why we should exit Afg ASAP.
A great quote:
"But without a doubt the most persistent questions I received were along the lines of “What are we doing in Afghanistan and why are we there in the first place?”
The fact that these are the questions that I am now receiving from career public servants in our nation’s departments and agencies should be a huge warning bell for the administration. And it means that Kagan is exactly right — this is now Obama’s war, and he and Stan McChrystal need to explain to the American people in non-IR-speak why we are in Afghanistan and what we are doing there. (Hint: if you cannot explain your policy to folks in the 3rd Congressional District of Tennessee in a way they can understand it, you might need to change your policy.)
As one career public servant explained to me afterwards, “It’s not like we do not support the war in Afghanistan — it’s just that no one has explained what we’re doing there.“"
Market will stall and go nowhere but sideways until they let the dollar fall. We need a .70 dollar to make it to 14,000 and $140 Oil. Again if you have been paying attention we have already been there, it has already been done.
Just keep acquiring the Chaos Hedges, and you will do just fine...this Market is going no where anytime soon.
Fortunately for me, I am of no significance.
As am I. C on the other hand is bouncing his IP all over the world. I have been able to determine that he may be an agent for Latvian tourism.
Mr Slippery (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:32 am
It would take an extreme amount of work to hide your identity. Even then, can you really trust the TOR nodes you proxy through?
Fortunately for me, I am of no significance.
Hide in obscurity, right in plain sight... I used to be quite concerned and played with anonymous proxies, tor, and other crap, but eventually realized the futility compared to the forces that can be brought to bear upon you if you actually become a threat, and just stopped caring about it.
flaminia (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:28 am
Cinco, unless the reason they won't sell to you is based on "invidious discrimination" against a suspect class, the store can refuse to sell to you. Television is controlled by the FCC because the airwaves are deemed a public asset. Newspapers are not controlled at all. They can absolutely refuse to sell space to someone.
Not so sure about that: Free speech v. commercial speech
"
issue 13 issue 14 issue 15 issue 16 issue 17 issue 18 issue 19 issue 20 issue 21 issue 22
The High Cost of Free Speech
.......
Historically, advertising didn’t receive the same constitutional protection as political speech, one form of free speech the Founding Fathers had in mind when they drafted the First Amendment. Political speech was valued for its role in guiding us toward a more just, democratic society, "a more perfect union." But over the past few decades the courts have taken a different view, granting free speech rights to commercial interests. "
Nobody saw the market going down and the USD going up. Total black swan wrapped up in a powerball ticket. This doesn't make any logical sense to someone who knows water to be wet, the air to be clear, and flation to be hyperinflating.
Ha, nice try nova. Blink and you miss it.
C
Cinco: The guarantee of free speech is owed by the government, not by private parties. Again: television is controlled by government (because government doles out the air waves) and that is why TV has to act differently than private newspapers or businesses. The rules concerning commercial speech are STILL only about the government's right to control or curb that speech. They have absolutely nothing to do with another private party's ability to control or curb the speech within that private party's sphere.
someone should have read their history about afghanistan you really have to go way back in history to find a people that beat them, sort of because they still gave conquers trouble.
as for why we are there? why now isnt the place that those people that flew those planes into the world trade center were from?
do i have say that that is a very snide remark?
........this IS Obama's War..........Rules of the Game: To Be Decided.........Object of Game: Unknown.........Length of Game: Unknown......
"It would take an extreme amount of work to hide your identity."
.....they already have my address, but I'll be glad to supply it yet again.
What's the downside? They can't shave my head, ship me to a foreign country, and tell me who to kill again. Jail? Give me a break - ........ that's nothin'.......I need the rest anyway....
Hide in obscurity, right in plain sight... I used to be quite concerned and played with anonymous proxies, tor, and other crap, but eventually realized the futility compared to the forces that can be brought to bear upon you if you actually become a threat, and just stopped caring about it.
I just try to keep my real name off the internet to avoid casual hits from people who know my real name. It's a pain in the arse to clean your trail after-the-fact, something an entire generation of teenagers is going to discover when they try to find their first real professional job.
Cinco: The guarantee of free speech is owed by the government, not by private parties. Again: television is controlled by government (because government doles out the air waves) and that is why TV has to act differently than private newspapers or businesses. The rules concerning commercial speech are STILL only about the government's right to control or curb that speech. They have absolutely nothing to do with another private party's ability to control or curb the speech within that private party's sphere.
For some weird reason, Hoocoodanode would not let me post this "in reply to." Ah! It posted already. Strange. Sorry for the double post. Is it possible to delete a double post?
Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:29 am
Cinco-X,
No you can refuse to do business with anyone. Being in the car business I would on occasion come accrossed people who want to do unsafe or rigged repairs. I have the right to not do them as I become the responsible party for the results if it fails. Would you take an ad from a one time customer against a daily full page advertiser who would cancel their ad program if you ran the hit piece? That would be a real hit to your bottom line that is hard to overcome. Business pressure can be applied.
I stand corrected:
WikiAnswers - Can a business owner refuse to serve a patron over the use of racial jokes
"Any business owner reserves the right to refuse service to any customer for any reason.
This can be abused by business owners, but most business owners don't exercise this right unless the customer truly deserves.
It's the same as kicking someone off your property for trespassing if they do something while visiting you that you do not approve of. Business owners, obviously own the business, and many own the property that the business is on. Others may lease or rent the building/land but it is still their business.
The customer is not necessarily always right. Business and companies used to be firm believers in this policy, but so many customers have adapted to abusing this policy just to get their way when, their actions/behavior are obviously unacceptable. "
ot-auto credit application volume doing own version of shanghai cliff diving last 2 days...
word is an import luxury auto manufactr financial arm is lowering score threshold for approval to 575?
credit score destruction mandates this...debtpushers need to fill the syringe
going to have to think real hard about my good credit strategy...
picked up next sun and mon at the wynn for $120.00 per night on priceline...gotta love deflation...
Afghanistan
It is all about geography. They are limited to one ring road to connect the country because of mountains. That encourage valley level tribalism. Happens in other places too. Solution would be to spend billions of dollars creating alternate routes to break the sub-national areas of dominance down. Is the money worth it? I don't know. No matter what happens in Afghanistan, there is still Pakistan living to the south which is the root of many problems. Canada should have pulled out in 2009, but the government extended to 2011 because they maybe were hoping to dish off a cabinet member Peter McKay hoping he could be the next head of NATO. We can't win it on our own, and its doubtful to get adequate commitments. So it's a total waste for us
gabyjan (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:41 am
someone should have read their history about afghanistan you really have to go way back in history to find a people that beat them, sort of because they still gave conquers trouble.
Beating them is easy. You'll win almost every battle unless you suck something fierce. Then eventually you go away.
as for why we are there? why now isnt the place that those people that flew those planes into the world trade center were from?
That's exactly why we're there, and if anyone tries to get us out, the corpse of 9/11 will be dragged through the streets while 10,000 slack jawed Republican couch commandoes scream "9/11 NEVAR FORGET!". Good job on Osama's part.
Now Iraq, that was all Bush, and that will prove much more costly in time.
"why now isnt the place that those people that flew those planes into the world trade center were from?"
No, they were from Saudi Arabia. They lived in Afghanistan for awhile 8 years ago.
SPROING!?!?
a spring just broke in my head.
"Nobody saw the market going down and the USD going up. Total black swan wrapped up in a powerball ticket. This doesn't make any logical sense to someone who knows water to be wet, the air to be clear, and flation to be hyperinflating."
The guy in the office next to me comes back today as a freshly minted 2nd Lt. He has been at officer training school. He will be buying sunblock again I am sure.
Canada should have pulled out in 2009, but the government extended to 2011 because they maybe were hoping to dish off a cabinet member Peter McKay hoping he could be the next head of NATO. We can't win it on our own, and its doubtful to get adequate commitments. So it's a total waste for us
That waste is why my parents line up on bridge overpasses west of Trenton, Ontario, every time a body from Afghanistan is repatriated.
Even if they don't agree with the war, at least the families know their sacrifice was recognized by the citizens of Canada.
Just a thought, but when H1N1 kicks intyo hyper-mode, people in general will question the health conditions of food joints! Look for traffic to head south!
Also see and here: YouTube - Radiohead The Bends live (high audio quality)
We need a congressional panel to oversee and shine some light over the PPIP. Too quiet as the Treasury gets fleeced under the cover of darkness...
CIA's opium trade dollars and a 25 year old delusional belief that the US will build an oil pipeline south from the Caspian thru Afghanistan to the deep sea ports of Pakistan, bypassing Iran and Russia
RockyR (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:49 am
SPROING!?!?
a spring just broke in my head.
"Nobody saw the market going down and the USD going up. Total black swan wrapped up in a powerball ticket. This doesn't make any logical sense to someone who knows water to be wet, the air to be clear, and flation to be hyperinflating."
I take it you don't agree with Mish:
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Countdown To Dollar Implosion Madness
I have a completely different view of Iraq then most on here but I also wonder what we are doing now in Afghanistan. If Iraq is to be view as Bushs war then Afghanistan is definitely Obamas.
Why is Afghanistan known as "the graveyard of empires"? - Yahoo! Answers
Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:48 am
"why now isnt the place that those people that flew those planes into the world trade center were from?"
No, they were from Saudi Arabia. They lived in Afghanistan for awhile 8 years ago.
Well.... their passports were from Saudia Arabia; it's not conclusive that they highjackers all came from there. I seem to recall that in some cases, the folks with their names attached to those passports are still alive and well living in Saudia Arabia-
"Face it folks, there are no Republicans or Democrats, just Global Fascist sycophants running our government."
Islamic conquest of Afghanistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
two peoples have "won" in afghanistan
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 10:42 am
I just try to keep my real name off the internet to avoid casual hits from people who know my real name. It's a pain in the arse to clean your trail after-the-fact, something an entire generation of teenagers is going to discover when they try to find their first real professional job.
I lucked into a position where it probably wouldn't matter unless it was really awful, but I expect that it won't be the usual case to not be searched out. I have a facebook but keep it clean and in general don't do stupid things in public that I have to hide later. I will occasionally put a first name on something posted online in a private group but have several pseudonyms for different purposes/interests/boards.
BSR<
Yep.
The Purple Fascist Party.
i nominate both afghanistan and iraq as Bush43s wars.
The keys to "winning" being willingness to massacre indiscriminately and the desire to conquer surrounding territories as well.
CR
MICA data out today (mortgage insurance companies of merica).
The ratio of cures to new defaults is 0.56, the same as it was a year ago.
In other words, new defaults hitting their books outnumber old defaults curing by a ratio of 1.77 to one.
I guess the rise in housing prices ain't enough to convince underwater borrowers to get current. Or the fact they have no job.
MICA Issues Monthly Statistical Report: Insurance in Force Remains Strong
just PURPLE GANG riding the range
Hide in obscurity, right in plain sight... I used to be quite concerned and played with anonymous proxies, tor, and other crap, but eventually realized the futility compared to the forces that can be brought to bear upon you if you actually become a threat, and just stopped caring about it.
I don't think that is the point. I mean; I'm not a threat by definition. Anyone looking for me is looking in the wrong place.
I'm not trying to hide anything at all - I'm trying to raise the incremental cost of complete surveillance and I thank anyone else who adds to that cost.
noob g.: That waste is why my parents line up on bridge overpasses west of Trenton, Ontario, every time a body from Afghanistan is repatriated.
What a touching thing to do. edit: I'm not sure how to emote complete snarkless on the Internet. (re-re-edit, especially here! DOH! Snark!). I really am touched by this action, it seems quite the opposite of the US.
Kung.Fu.Panda (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:03 pm
The keys to "winning" being willingness to massacre indiscriminately and the desire to conquer surrounding territories as well.
Differential profitability. Money spent there is wasted because it yields more direct southwards across the five-rivers area.
Why conquer Afghanistan when you can force yourself to be Governor of Lahore and then march on Dehli?
I'm not trying to hide anything at all - I'm trying to raise the incremental cost of complete surveillance and I thank anyone else who adds to that cost.
I'm not trying to hide anything either, but to me there is a large gulf between 'not hiding' and 'making it ridiculously easy for anyone to learn everything about you'.
It seems like a great idea until it's used against you in a way you never intended, at which point it's far too late to make any changes.
noob: It seems like a great idea until it's used against you in a way you never intended, at which point it's far too late to make any changes.
noob, can you do me a favor and draw a little more detail into that? I should be able to figure this out but sometimes it's better just to ask.
NervousRex (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:05 am
I'm not trying to hide anything at all - I'm trying to raise the incremental cost of complete surveillance and I thank anyone else who adds to that cost.
Yes, it's the bear in the woods strategy - you don't have to outrun the bear, just the next guy also running from the bear.
Back on topic; why is anyone surprised that restaurants would be sucking it down right now. This is a recession (at best), and shakeouts of weak businesses are supposed to occur. Additionally, one would expect this to be a lagging indicator, at least for restaurants that are "family oriented". Restaurants that are used for business meetings might recover earlier, and it would be more interesting if that aspect or the business could be extracted from the data-
I really am touched by this action, it seems quite the opposite of the US.
It isn't the opposite at the citizen level. It was prohibited by the Bush Administration at the national level.
There was no cost to Bush's wars, either financial or human.
This is what American Patriots fought and died for.
United States Bill of Rights - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Now the US Government (Both Elephants and Asses) have attempted to destroy these RIGHTS.
Both parties have shown that they are Fascist by 'bailing out' CORPORATIONS.
Wake up America!
Everything is going according to THEIR PLAN!
noob - good point. Seems to me that employment demand is probably going to come from more gov/mil and health, areas where vetting and clearances are often needed, either for genuine sec reasons or reputational reasons, and the greater sum of indiscretions that are on the net mean greater difficulties securing or holding employment, and/or terminations for lousy and dubious cause.
On the upside there could be a bubble in civil libs, infosec and labor litigation...
C
"I take it you don't agree with Mish:"
Increased domestic holding of UST is coming from banks. Banks have new excess liquidity due to the Fed buying $800B and counting of agency MBS, some of which were juiced by rolling bad mortgages into agency loans.
Call this "indirect QE". Eventually it will lead to a dollar collapse. A dollar collapse can be seen in two ways - relative to other bullsh*t fiat currencies, and relative to global commodities.
On both fronts, the USD is losing value already.
The only things that will get cheaper in coming years for US consumers are products that have a large US worker labor content, since that is one commodity that will be getting cheaper.
i want to play this
YouTube - Borodin In The Steppes of Central Asia - MYO Suffolk Principal Orchestra
"Just plain old food consumption in the US is down 19% year over year. "
That's the answer to my next question. But where does the number come from?
Why would I waste my hard-earned money on dining out when Mrs. Gnome is such an incredible cook?
Plus we grow a lot of our own food...
Gaby - I think there was a slight provication for Afghanistan - I seem to recall the sky raining airplanes a few years back.
On both fronts, the USD is losing value already.
can I haz silver Japanese coins?
Seriously, I keep expecting the Yen to be inflated back up north of 95 every day, and it seems to be slowly sinking. Seeing as how Japan's economy and employment is taking front stage in their political discourse, where will they try to export since their currency is currently strengthening against everything with a Pacific ocean bordering it?
If you noticed some of the Food Channel show are now turning to cost effective cooking. Especially the "$10 Dinners" new show.
I really am touched by this action, it seems quite the opposite of the US.
sportsfan: It isn't the opposite at the citizen level. It was prohibited by the Bush Administration at the national level.
Thanks for making that distinction sportsfan, and I concur.
(Now I promise to be on topic till sundown....)
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:15 am
Both parties have shown that they are Fascist by 'bailing out' CORPORATIONS.
Wake up America!
Everything is going according to THEIR PLAN!
HG, it's de facto fascist rule by a plutocracy. It's easiest just to accept that and start planning life accordingly.
noob, can you do me a favor and draw a little more detail into that? I should be able to figure this out but sometimes it's better just to ask.
It's hard to go into detail, because it's very difficult to predict how this information could be used against you. When I was doing my undergrad, for example, I visited a number of economics blogs and used my real name when engaging in discussions about free markets, libertarianism, etc. My viewpoints changed significantly as I got older, but those posts stayed exactly the same. I had them deleted before I started looking for jobs, because there was no way to predict how a potential interviewer would react if they searched my name and came across them. Perhaps they were very left-leaning, and had no patience for right-leaning ramblings.
Beyond that, people have been convicted in part based on their internet search histories, etc. A seemingly innocent query, when taken out of context, can be end up making me look bad. It's easier to simply remove the possible conflict.
"Seriously, I keep expecting the Yen to be inflated back up north of 95 every day, and it seems to be slowly sinking."
Sinking productivity because of demographic decline, decline in consumption, and in exports. Things could be going better in Japan.
Because she needs a break once in awhile.
Thanks for the laugh, steelhead!
What a touching thing to do. edit: I'm not sure how to emote complete snarkless on the Internet. (re-re-edit, especially here! DOH! Snark!). I really am touched by this action, it seems quite the opposite of the US.
I had no real opinions on the Afghan war until I happened to be visiting my parents one day when a repatriation occurred. I drove against the path of the procession, for about 40 minutes, and became increasingly emotional as I saw hundreds of people taking time out of their day to stand on an overpass and wait, sometimes hours, for the procession to go through. By the time I stopped and joined my parents at 'their' bridge, it was a pretty powerful event.
It crystallized the human cost of war, in my mind.
What is easiest is rarely the correct path; in my experience.
I just don't understand the whole "It's not contracting as fast" thing.
Especially with twenty-three months of decline. TWENTY-THREE MONTHS.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:26 pm
Beyond that, people have been convicted in part based on their internet search histories, etc. A seemingly innocent query, when taken out of context, can be end up making me look bad. It's easier to simply remove the possible conflict.
Would you mind citing some examples of "innocent queries" that got people convicted of something? Real cases, not hypothetical scenarios. Thanks-
rb
its been 23 months!
well in that case we have only 217 more months to go!
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:26 pm
I had them deleted before I started looking for jobs, because there was no way to predict how a potential interviewer would react if they searched my name and came across them. Perhaps they were very left-leaning, and had no patience for right-leaning ramblings.
This, credit checks, awesome ways to hermetically seal your business away from talent. With just a few simple clicks, you can reduce your applicant pool down to ineffectual lilly-white pussies who take no stand on anything and carefully avoid entanglements or associations that might seem to be anything but totally innocent. Then wonder why your company is going to hell. The secure, pristine, totally nonproductive future of America is assured -- we'll have the same degree of talent in the corporate sector we normally see today only from elected officials!
For those wondering what is going on in the Shanghai Stock market Michael Pettis has a very good explanation of how the SSE functions.
mpettis.com
Here's the important part
"Why did the market collapse? Forget about fundamentals. As I have argued many times before, China lacks the necessary tools that fundamental investors use (e.g. good macro data, good financial statements, a clear corporate governance framework, a stable regulatory environment, a market discount rate) and so no matter what people say, there are no fundamental investing here. There is only speculation, and the two things above all that drive the markets are those old speculator favorites, changes in underlying liquidity and government signaling"
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:29 am
What is easiest is rarely the correct path; in my experience.
I'd agree. Viewing the landscape helps however. What I meant is that it's impossible to change something in a world that you refuse to see, except by dumb luck.
OT: Since is about to get pigged, I'll reiterate again that people should go read the American Banker article "Postponing the Day of Reckoning" if you are into RE at all, here is my blog post with a link to the article which requires free registration.
Effective Demand: "Postponing the day of Reckoning"
On topic: It seems to me that traffic is holding close to where it was, but that the average bill per diner is down.
I do believe that fast food has taken some market share from sit down restaurants, but not that much in the sense that a large percentage of Americans "eat out" only at the drive through window.
Both the chains and the independents seem to be focusing on value in the meal offerings. Many specials are the norm, as are package deals including an appetizer and/or dessert with the entree.
I expect holiday party bookings to be better in 2009 than they were in 2008. 2008 bookings were way down from 2007 and even 2007 was down from 2006. People are booking already, but I expect a bell to ring on Labor Day.
The 19% number quoted above just strikes me as ridiculous. I notice there was no cite, nor any support for it.
If you want to know about levels of food consumption, I think SYSCO is the biggest wholesaler.
I've been clean from my Burger King cheeseburger addiction for 3 1/2 months now.
But there are some days that I just want a BK cheeseburger!
I wonder what THAT says about me.
Anybody watch Bill Moyers interviewed on Real Time? He pretty much calls President O' a tool of Wall St. and Big Pharma.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:38 pm
I've been clean from my Burger King cheeseburger addiction for 3 1/2 months now.
But there are some days that I just want a BK cheeseburger!
I wonder what THAT says about me.
Lose any weight?
Would you mind citing some examples of "innocent queries" that got people convicted of something? Real cases, not hypothetical scenarios. Thanks-
The cases I'm aware of were the ones involving murder, the hit-and-run, and the wireless hacker. These people were all proven guilty, most likely irrespective of their search history. The case of Robert Petrick, who killed his wife and researched it pretty thoroughly on Google in advance, probably had the greatest weight placed on Google searches, in my opinion.
My concern is always the hypotheticals. Like what if I'm feel nauseous in the morning, so when I get to work I search "carbon monoxide poisoning"? If, heaven forbid, something actually went wrong with my furnace and something happened to my family, how would that look to prosecutors?
At that point it wouldn't much matter to me in the slightest, as the loss of my freedom would be inconsequential in comparison to the loss of my family, but it could be a problem in lesser circumstances. I just prefer not to tempt fate, I suppose, especially around an issue so easy to mitigate.
Blackhalo, as usual, Moyers speaks the truth.
...I also wonder what we are doing now in Afghanistan.
Same reasons FDR dragged us into WWII. It lowers unemployment and the huge government procurement contracts stimulate the economy.
Re: What is easiest is rarely the correct path; in my experience
But "correct" implies morals. Morals are for the dumbasses. Let them worry about what's correct.
Same reasons FDR dragged us into WWII. It lowers unemployment and the huge government procurement contracts stimulate the economy.
It won't have the same supply-destruction elements in Afghanistan, however. The War would need to expand to larger competitors with the USA.
Probably Canada, with my luck.
Re: Anybody watch Bill Moyers interviewed on Real Time
When he calls the entire Democratic party a tool of big bidness AND starts supporting ANY other third party THAT would be news.
You mean like during the 1950's, when HUAC & McCarthy were active?
Well, that was one hell of a morning of UST yield curve taming. Long bond yield up only sub-bp. Rest tightened sharply.
C
I've always been pretty active, Cinco so I've never really gotten large.
Lots of biking and hiking will keep the weight off.
homegnome
i dont know what it says about you but i want a whooper l love whoopers. and i must not go get a whooper, tomorrow is shopping day. and i will even get my whooper without a coupon.
now what does that say about me?
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:41 pm
The cases I'm aware of were the ones involving murder, the hit-and-run, and the wireless hacker. These people were all proven guilty, most likely irrespective of their search history. The case of Robert Petrick, who killed his wife and researched it pretty thoroughly on Google in advance, probably had the greatest weight placed on Google searches, in my opinion.
My concern is always the hypotheticals. Like what if I'm feel nauseous in the morning, so when I get to work I search "carbon monoxide poisoning"? If, heaven forbid, something actually went wrong with my furnace and something happened to my family, how would that look to prosecutors?
At that point it wouldn't much matter to me in the slightest, as the loss of my freedom would be inconsequential in comparison to the loss of my family, but it could be a problem in lesser circumstances. I just prefer not to tempt fate, I suppose, especially around an issue so easy to mitigate.
In the case of Petrick, those don't sound like innocent queries. In your latter hypothetical case, it might be suspicious if you researched CO poisoning in May, and the furnace crapped out in June, but if you were already sick and the furnace was already on the fritz, and you just didn't find out in time, then not so much. I'd suspect that you'd have quite a bit of residual CO in your system, and it could be demonstrated that the furnace had been going bad for awhile. I guess I'm trying to say that you seem a bit paranoid, and it's probably a
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 11:44 am
Re: What is easiest is rarely the correct path; in my experience
But "correct" implies morals. Morals are for the dumbasses. Let them worry about what's correct.
and see visions of change until you do that. The problem is that acknowledging the system as it is would throw us into septic shock.
I'm pragmatic. You can't "change" anything unless you acknowledge the reality that is there first. The "As Is" system not as you would like it to be or appear, but the system as it actually is. You can't even begin to do anything but smoke
That you're the BurgerQueen?
azurite (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:45 pm
You mean like during the 1950's, when HUAC & McCarthy were active?
il⋅lu⋅sion
/ɪˈluʒən/ Show Spelled Pronunciation [i-loo-zhuhn] Show IPA –noun
1. something that deceives by producing a false or misleading impression of reality.
2. the state or condition of being deceived; misapprehension.
3. an instance of being deceived.
BTW, I don't believe that anyone brought before McCarthy has ever been proved innocent, not to say that he was correct in his proceedings.
i know that i have a very interesting history on my computer its just that one thing leads to another.its a research tool dammit. better than any encyalopedia collecting dust in library.
Quick snippet from here:
Sysco Results Reflect Challenging Conditions in Foodservice - GLG News
"As a result of the negative economic impacts on consumer spending trends, fewer American families are dining away from home compared to the prior year. According to an August 17, 2009 report in Nation’s Restaurant News, restaurant guest traffic counts have declined 7% for the total restaurant sector, with a 6% decline in the quick service segment, 12% decline in midscale dining, and a 13% decline in the casual dining segment."
I'd suspect that you'd have quite a bit of residual CO in your system, and it could be demonstrated that the furnace had been going bad for awhile. I guess I'm trying to say that you seem a bit paranoid, and it's probably a Nothingburger
I'm not particularly paranoid, at least I don't think I am, but I suppose I'd be the last to know.
My real concern is simply that I'm incredibly curious, and I use all kinds of search queries. Most could be easily explained, but I suppose I've been brainwashed by too many Hollywood movies where an innocent suspect's credibility is put into question by some incredibly random stroke of bad luck/coincidence (perhaps an unexplainable search query), and he has to spend an inordinate amount of time restoring his freedom and reputation.
And I'm just far too lazy to want to do that.
Re: The problem is that acknowledging the system as it is would throw us into septic shock.
Yes, I agree. I guess I look at the current system as being "unchangeable" BUT it's still important for the non-peasants (and non-dumbasses) to adjust their lives to account for the reality that the US isn't a Representative Democracy (and hasn't been one for at least 60 years).
You are right, tho, about the "septic shock" thing. There's no chance that the REAL Merica peasants could comprehend this, without it destroying the society and leading to instant fascism.
"i nominate both afghanistan and iraq as Bush43s wars. "
Who owns Vietnam? The guy who sent the "advisors", the guy who escalated the forces, or the guy who bombed Cambodia?
Getting back to the real topic at hand, someone earlier mentioned a 19% drop in total food demand, and both Pavel and I were interested in the original source for that number. Has anyone seen that anywhere?
"Getting back to the real topic at hand, someone earlier mentioned a 19% drop in total food demand, and both Pavel and I were interested in the original source for that number."
Looks plausible to me...
Wheat (W, CBOT): Weekly Price Chart
"for any reason" other than those that are constitutionally/legally protected - race, gender, disability, national origin- but not sexual orientation.
Re: has ever been proved innocent
It was the "Country First" (You Betcha) mentality that was the most corrosive aspect of the entire debacle.
When you have a group of people throwing around the concept of WHO is a REAL Merican, that can only lead to one thing. A political inquisition.
Meet the new "NORMAL"......MM
Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 12:55 pm
"i nominate both afghanistan and iraq as Bush43s wars. "
Who owns Vietnam? The guy who sent the "advisors", the guy who escalated the forces, or the guy who bombed Cambodia?
I'd go with the guy that fabricated the "Gulf of Tonkin Incident" as a reason for expanding our participation in the fiasco.
Re: I'd go with the guy that fabricated the "Gulf of Tonkin Incident"
"Gulf of Tonkin" "Weapons of Mass Delusion"; the peasants LOVED it.
Mericans get exactly the system they want. Unquestioned worship of the nobility.
(Edit: LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT HIPPY!!!!!!!!!)
BTW, what happened to the glossary?
true, I can't blame the boomers for the disaster that LBJ was in so many ways
Proven innocent? As in charges were filed, a grand jury indicted, there was a trial (whether by jury or judge, as the defendant chose) and a conviction? That was one of the issues of HUAC, it was being used as a judge/jury but without benefit of the due process that supposedly is important in the US before depriving a person of life, liberty or property. Except, of course, when it's not. Like now.
Just that you use the term, "proven innocent" when talking about someone acting allegedly as a legislative fact-finder (i.e, not a grand jury, etc.)--is troubling. As far as I know, no one needs to be proven "innocent" rather the burden is on the accuser to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that a defendant is guilty of a crime. Big difference, don't you think?
One of the most disappointing (to put it mildly) acts of the Obama administration so far, for me, has been its assumption of pretty much every one of the Bush Administration's abrogations or implicit (if not explicit) repeals of various provisions of the Constitution and duly ratified treaties.
As for the 1st amendment, see SLAPP suits, which are very effective (& used by corporations,et al) in "chilling" exercise of 1st A rights by individuals, Strategic lawsuit against public participation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A few states have passed anti-SLAPP suit laws, but not many. As far as I know, Congress has not.
who was it here that said if the market's open, that means natgas is tanking.
"Getting back to the real topic at hand, someone earlier mentioned a 19% drop in total food demand, and both Pavel and I were interested in the original source for that number."
Looks plausible to me...
Wheat (W, CBOT): Weekly Price Chart
Definitely a pull back, but suppose I wish there was a way to disaggregate the 'price' metric.
Like why was the price so strong in mid-2008 when any underlying demand trends were little different than previous months/quarters/years?
I've been trying to figure out that dynamic since before it crested, and I've made little progress. I just don't understand the market mechanism well enough to figure out how vast sums of money flowing in could change the underlying value of the commodities. Everyone should have been getting absolutely slaughtered when contracts rolled over and price (supposedly) converged, but it didn't seem to be happening.
Very strange times.
Blackhalo,
Food demand increases constantly. There are 200k more people each day. An increasing population in Asia is a protein based consumers (meat eaters), which exponentially increases demand for plant based products.
btu of ng to an oz of sweet sweet glod is something like 32 now. it shows how political and targeted this recent round of asset inflation has been.
Re: true, I can't blame the boomers for the disaster that LBJ was in so many ways
No, that would have to be "THE World's GREATEST generation", in all their pathetic ADULT glory.
I served on a jury last year with a guy that thought we had to find the defendant guilty unless the defense proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was innocent--he thought that was a bedrock principle of our legal system.
But at least there, charges were brought. Try proving yourself innocent of unspecified charges....
book to read
Vietnam: A History
stanley karnow
a very good book about the war.
There are positives to having food allergies - one tends to avoid restaurants, which are expensive and usually less wholesome than home cooked meals at home. Also, you never know what's being done in the kitchen.
anyone else have any problems with comments freezing (could min. but max really slow loading)
Food demand increases constantly. There are 200k more people each day. An increasing population in Asia is a protein based consumers (meat eaters), which exponentially increases demand for plant based products.
It's true, but that's been the case since the mid-1970's. It always happens just slightly slower than the growth in productivity, which is why we pay only slightly more for a bushel of wheat today than we did in 1850. Maybe triple at most, and what would the cost of most anything else have done in the intervening 150 years?
Edit: I was reading "Nature's Metropolis", which was quoting Chicago market prices at around $0.85-0.90/bu for wheat in 1840 or so. I suppose this is slightly more than triple with today's prices, but I remember the prices in 2005, and it's merely 2.5 times that.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 1:23 pm
It's true, but that's been the case since the mid-1970's. It always happens just slightly slower than the growth in productivity.
Always only for sample values about 150-200 years in breadth and confined only to America and Western Europe.
Growth beyond the ability of the arable terrain to sustain the population is routine over the course of human history.
Gabyjan,
I had it timeout on me.
Gabyjan, there was a load spike on the server a few minutes before 10 PT. Seems every time I walk away one happens...
We're actively working on isolating the cause of this.
gabyjan - yes, my thread froze and refused to update from 12:48. Opened this in refreshed CR home.
C
Re: there was a load spike on the server a few minutes before 10 PT
Trust me, it's almost ALWAYS the database's fault.
Edit: or badly written queries OR queries written that assume indexes are presents - which aren't - but, regardless, it's usually the database sucking up the processor reading through too may row to find the ones it actually needs.
Deleted: double post (why the second post showed up 20 minutes after the first I have no idea.)
Growth beyond the ability of the arable terrain to sustain the population is routine over the course of human history.
This age is the first time in human history that we have the ability to artificially augment the productive capacity of arable terrain on a broad, cost effective scale and remove this constraint.
Our current agricultural practices do indeed impose costs; movement toward over-reliance on a single pesticide, glyphosate, is what keeps me up at night far more than capacity constraints.
Brazil alone is capable of meeting global food demands over the next few decades. With the exception of Western Europe and USA/Canada/Australia/New Zealand, there are HUGE increases in productivity that can be made all over the world.
We may eat ourselves out of a planet, but we're decades away from it right now.
Those virtual
load spikes really play havoc, huh?
C
"And yet the obesity level rises... what's the deal here? "
Confectioners are begging for quotas to be raised on sugar. Of course with so much corn going to ethanol, corn syrup may be in short supply.
Sugar #11 (SB, ICE [NYBOT]): Weekly Price Chart
We may eat ourselves out of a planet, but we're decades away from it right now.
Supply chain disruptions will cause major population collapses long before then. Our modern constraint is energy and other raw industrial materials, not food.
Noob, the linked article imposed a number of questions I hadn't considered head-on regarding contemporary farming and its future. I was as confident as you are. Rather less so now.
Our Good Earth - National Geographic Magazine
Admittedly, it's been a while since Con Law II, and these days the only part of the Constitution that routinely impacts my practice is Article I, section 8, but I'm pretty sure that the constitutional protections afforded to the "protected classes" you mention generally apply only to government action. The 14th amendment extended most provisions of the Bill of Rights to apply to other government entities besides the feds, but not to private actors.
of course, any self-respecting doomer knows that the final chapter of peak oil is the sad realization that wasting fossil fuels on automotive fuel is ridiculous when the stuff should be used for soil. that may be a century off, however.
Did anyone make any progress on investigating the validity of the 19% drop in food consumption?
1. Is that in dollars? Euros? or is it weight & volume?
2. What's the time period involve?
3. Is that worldwide or US?
4. Is that extrapolated from a narrow study by some PhD, or is it from a federal agency survey? Margins of Errors?
So many questions....
I don't think it is a bigger grab- its more like extending their existing authorities to new mediums of communications.
A relatively high level of exchange of materials is required to sustain the (temporary) increase in carrying capacity...one danger sign would be significant reductions in interanational trade flows - phew!
Disney to buy comic book powerhouse Marvel Entertainment
Los Angeles Times -- Entertainment - latimes.com
MVL Marvel Entertainment, ... 48.45 +9.80 25.36%
Marvel Entertainment, Inc. - Google Finance
First Pixar and now Marvel. I hope they don't screw up two very good things given what they have done with their own animation business, but I do look forward to Heroland...
Supply chain disruptions will cause major population collapses long before then. Our modern constraint is energy and other raw industrial materials, not food.
Toward that I have no argument, but it won't be due to agricultural capacity being tapped out. While subjects like 'Food Security' are only tepidly addressed by people at the current time, there's a reason why the Europeans spend billions and billions propping up their domestic agriculture industry. They remember what it's like to go hungry due to 'supply disruptions' and want to keep some farms close to home.
Noob, the linked article imposed a number of questions I hadn't considered head-on regarding contemporary farming and its future. I was as confident as you are. Rather less so now.
I'm reading it now, thanks for it! I'll post my thoughts in a later thread when I finish.
"There are positives to having food allergies - one tends to avoid restaurants, which are expensive and usually less wholesome than home cooked meals at home. Also, you never know what's being done in the kitchen. "
They got rats that come out at night in a lot of restaurants. One of the Obamas favorite restaurants in DC was closed for rat catching purposes a few months back.
Rank Parent Company Total
1 Lockheed Martin Corp. $37,552,122,474
2 Boeing Co. $25,974,673,372
3 Northrop Grumman Corp $25,731,030,455
Looks as if we have a stealth C4C airplanes program.
Top 200 Federal Contractors (8/15/09) -- GovExec.com
........the REAL food problems are already upon us........can everyone spell M-O-N-S-A-N-T-O
Hulu - The Future Of Food - Watch the full feature film now.
noob goldberg (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/31/2009 - 1:49 pm
Toward that I have no argument, but it won't be due to agricultural capacity being tapped out.
Not directly, but I think the complexity of the modern agricultural enterprise is going to make it vulnerable to early disruption. Raw carrying capacity being overwhelmed versus curve-shifters failing to materialize isn't going to look too different from an on-the-ground perspective.
of course, any self-respecting doomer knows that the final chapter of peak oil is the sad realization that wasting fossil fuels on automotive fuel is ridiculous when the stuff should be used for soil. that may be a century off, however.
Agriculture does have the capacity to grow it's own fuel, as well. It's been done before during previous fuel shortages, and is not particularly difficult.
This would negatively impact total productivity, of course, as a portion would have to be used for fuel, but at least food would keep growing. It would just be more expensive.
........the REAL food problems are already upon us........can everyone spell M-O-N-S-A-N-T-O
Monsanto's a
. While everyone likes to think of them as pure evil, the rest of agriculture likes them because they a) make decent products and b) take the heat off the rest of the sector so that we don't have to explain where everyone's food comes from. I've got no love for that company, but most of what they're accused of is either ridiculous or a complete non-issue to people who actually work in agriculture.
Agriculture is not benign, and has some very significant problems, but without it we'd still be clustered around the tropical regions, fighting for our lives against wild animals and living to the ripe old age of 25.
Not directly, but I think the complexity of the modern agricultural enterprise is going to make it vulnerable to early disruption. Raw carrying capacity being overwhelmed versus curve-shifters failing to materialize isn't going to look too different from an on-the-ground perspective.
Absolutely! The biggest disruption is that we haven't had a major North American drought in decades, and we're due. Since we're pretty much the breadbasket of the world and we currently do not carry much of anything in terms of grain reserves anymore, a serious one year drought would probably result in significant hardship for many people.
We've been living in a goldilocks weather pattern for many years now, and farmers/politicians/consumers have almost forgotten what a real true continent-wide drought is like. Farmers are much like bankers, in some respects. Since we haven't had a huge drought in decades, it starts to fall off the radar in terms of disaster-planning scenarios. Mother nature has a habit of reminding us when we haven't been appropriately valuing her level of risk.
noob.........the issues brought up in the linked documentary seemed quite alarming (The Future of Food). That is bunk?
.........the issues brought up in the linked documentary seemed quite alarming (The Future of Food). That is bunk?
I certainly wouldn't call them 'bunk'. Soil compaction is a very old issue, and industrialized agriculture has been trying to find ways to mitigate it for many years now. Tracked equipment, wide tires, very wide implements to reduce passes, etc generally have begun to reverse the damage. Most importantly, farmers are aware of the problem of soil compaction and get very antsy about going over the soil too frequently or with too heavy equipment. It'll start getting better, even with big equipment, as farmers and manufactures focus closely on PSI on soil. Certainly, no self-respecting farmer goes out an 'mucks around' in the spring anymore, as this does far more damage than economic impact of just leaving the field alone.
The problem of erosion in China is also very real, and decades old. There are, in all seriousness, mountains made out of topsoil, all from wind erosion, in China. I can't speak for their production systems, but they have a great deal of housekeeping of their own to do in order to begin restoring the damage. I know nothing about the Sahara buffer problem, although Africa itself is starting to get better as varieties and cropping practices are developed explicitly for them, and not just taken from another inappropriate locale and adopted there. That is a decades-long problem yet to be solved.
Brazil is interesting, and there are some very large, skilled operators within that country, and so far they've been pretty good at what they do. The biggest problem within that country, and one that's much better now than 15 years ago, is internal infrastructure for processing and moving the harvest.
"The Future of Food" had to do with Monsanto's patenting of living organisms, specifically gene-altered seed stock. If a Monsanto "Roundup-Ready" Soybean seed blew off an adjoining Monsanto farm, any place that that seed carried was then owned by Monsanto. Monsanto after being successful in gaining patents on seeds, commenced to patent 23,000 other types of seed.
"The Future of Food" had to do with Monsanto's patenting of living organisms, specifically gene-altered seed stock. If a Monsanto "Roundup-Ready" Soybean seed blew off an adjoining Monsanto farm, any place that that seed carried was then owned by Monsanto. Monsanto after being successful in gaining patents on seeds, commenced to patent 23,000 other types of seed.
I appreciate that, and I've been asked that before on more than one occasion. I guess I contrast that to breeds where farmers can 'save their seed' and don't buy it every year. When I look at historic yield trends for patented seed vs 'public' (for lack of a better word) seed, there is no future in having 'open source' seed. No one will invest the millions in a research program if they can't capture the results, and so farm productivity increases will cease relatively quickly.
The cross-contamination problem between Roundup Ready canola on one field and conventional canola on another is a serious problem from a legal perspective, but few farmers would want to return to conventional crops when they've had a chance to grow glyphosate-resistant ones. There is some market for conventional (i.e. non-GMO) crops, but they rarely pay high enough returns to warrant the extra expense and yield variability from growing them.
GMO crops usually demand fewer passes on your field to control weeds, fewer expenses on pesticides, and fewer headaches on which pesticides to use on which crops at which times. If it didn't create higher returns, no farmer would use them and purchase the seed every year. Farmers are also used to this; they've been buying hybrid corn seed every year for more than sixty years.
Monsanto after being successful in gaining patents on seeds, commenced to patent 23,000 other types of seed.
Oh, and I should say that this is incredibly ugly and should be repugnant to most anyone. However, the silver lining could be that since these are now patented, there is a specific time limit by which these patents should expire, and at which point could not be patented again.
At least, that is my hope.