Can you say "Ringing of second-order system"?
I knew you could.

Re: Can anyone tell me why people keep LEAVING New Zealand?

NZ would NOT be good for an above-average very smart overly agressive person. What makes the place so livable for everybody ELSE is that these people leave.

NZ would NOT be good for an above-average very smart overly agressive person.

Well, I'm fucked then.

Back OT, I'm nervous about tomorrow, as I'm heavily invested in a very volatile stock...

Re: Well, I'm fucked then.

Age fixes all problems. there's hope for you yet.

Was on the previous:

Counterpointer (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 11:28 pm editreplyEHP - LOL! What a relief...And there was me thinking global capitalism was a tightly coupled system. Duh.

For the move to / invest in NZ crowd, you may find the window narrowing. Some analysts are picking NZD to go above 70c to the USD. Back in January you could have moved your nut at 50c. Double your money nominal and at PPP probably gained more.

Kiwi Traders Dare Bollard to Cut Rate; Currency Soars (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

Carry traders might have more luck. Maybe.

C

Remember way back when a 5% drop in oversees markets would affect S&P futures?
So nostalgic.

Re: Remember way back when a 5% drop in oversees markets would affect S&P futures?

We're so GREAT we create our OWN reality now!

I'm thinking about launching a reality TV pilot.
Premise: Dare a Central Banker
`
Could go all around the world, getting into hijinx

NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 10:38 pm

We're so GREAT we create our OWN reality now!

Just a derivative universe...

"China may of grown tired, anxious of playing along with Timmy and Uncle Ben"

China has its fidgets, but I think it's a lot more stable than one might give it credit for.

That's my point, if I'm right.

ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 8:39 pm

Just a derivative universe...

Shadows of Amber.

"We're so GREAT we create our OWN reality now!"

Uh oh. These have always been the last words before an absolutely stunning disaster.

Even Sunday is gyrating madly.

Crude Oil Oct 09 Futures Chart - Yahoo! Finance

Oil starts a plummet.

Of course, since I am long ERX right now, I could be happy if this trend continues.

Hoops, it might be time to consider stepping aside.

If I recall correctly, this market is starting to resemble 1930 more and more...so, if the decline resumes to even half of the drop from 1930-33, it will be ugly.

Extremely ugly.

Someday this war's gonna end...

Re: Uh oh. These have always been the last words before an absolutely stunning disaster.

Didn't Paul Wolfich (sp) say something like this about Iraq?

The US creating its own reality in the Middle East or some other end-of-history (like) nonsence.

"These asset value declines in China are much, much more relevant to our present economic situation than the muted reaction of the markets would indicate. Give it time."

We'll be watching.

pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 10:41 pm

Yes indeed. And I believe that as sounding boards we will improve.

Absolutely. It is sort of the purpose of life after death... in a peculiar sense of those words, at any rate.

Sounds like the Triumph of Delusional Narcissism to me, pavel.

C

THE WELCOMER

The bus will not be taking me along
The street of death, the route I took is wrong,
Along the street of death I lost my way,
Bewilderment of grace someone would say:
“Although you may have paid the proper fare,’
The driver said: ‘I cannot take you there.
We stop, the door is open, you might see
The welcomer of death, I am not he.”

I found the way I knew the others went,
An avenue of shops, presentiment,
This is the way the others went before:
Recruiting station, illness, age or war,
And I am lost, where can my death be found?
Bewilderment but not the holy ground
Where consolation waits, the world a bed -
I might have died by now, my son instead

Pavel
August 30, 2009

pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 10:50 pm

It's called The Triumph of the Will. It's when someone looks at his enormous shadow on the wall and takes it for a perfect reflection.

What was life like before the Freudian infestation of Western culture? I can't even imagine it without 80's rock.

Regarding New Zealand, Fiordland is probably the most beautiful place I've been in my life. If you like venison, impossibly deep glacial lakes, mischievous birds, wool, more venison, and a LOT of solitude, check out Te Anau(Queenstown is the resort town nearest). If California finally cracked off and sunk in the Pacific, you might find out about it five years later.

"Regarding New Zealand, Fiordland is probably the most beautiful place I've been in my life."

Would love to see it, ndk.

Huh, VERY interesting point. Never thought about that.

I did a couple posts on this back when I could be arsed/had the time to write. I've said my peace and am content to watch with my happy holdings of Treasuries now.

REER and why we can't unilaterally inflate:
can't create inflation

What I would do if I were China(and they did, and likely will continue to; though my current realpolitik viewpoint would be to cease purchases for awhile to cause further deflationary chaos in the West/commodity markets/Australians spies)
ndk's notepad: Pondering Sino-American Economic Tension

The S&P dashed-line looks like pixie dust falling from above ....very beautiful and magical. (insert pixie here)

Re: "We're so GREAT we create our OWN reality now!"

... But will other people buy into the dream, that is, besides us little people here?

New handle alert: we have -6.3% down on the Shenzhen Component Stock IX.

Bloomberg.com:
Personal Finance

Aggregates sinking steadily.

See you Monday. Sweet s.

C

Report: OC Register Owner to File for Bankruptcy

- NY Times

They need some moo shoo pork barrel spending...

Premiere poetry is why I love this blog.

WSJ is silent (so far) on the china dive.
Is there any specific news that set this off?
Or is it just markets being markets?

I thought the change of guard in Japan would give the market a green light over that way.....?

Doc Holiday

The change is good for the "people" bad for the large companies and shareholders. Workers will start to demand more in the way of compensation. US to follow someday.

Hoops,

You've made a pretty penny so far... take some off the table already. Also, given the size of your holdings (now), you ought to actually consider buying some put options as downside protection.

Cerberus raising money to buy Cerberus:

By Katherine Burton

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Cerberus Capital Management LP plans to raise money in the fourth quarter to buy distressed companies and securities...

Cerberus to Raise New Funds After Investors Pull $4.77 Billion - Bloomberg.com

Doc it will be interesting to see the dollar action after the Yen Move.

Small investors in Japan may fly into bonds exacerbating the moves.

Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 11:22 pm

By Katherine Burton

Should they be renamed "Phoenix"? This sounds ready-made for some hoopajoops ltd. derivatives!!

(mind explodes)

Norka

A Country in East Asia unseats the ruling party after 60 years of rule. This scares the Chinese Communist IMO.

Nikkei up 10 points?!?

Bloomberg.com

Bond Market Eyeing 10% Jobless Rate Rejects Recovery

the markets hate uncertainty.

Yeah, and when a government holding a cool trillion in Treasuries changes hands, well, that's uncertainty with a capital U.

I suspect "Phoenix" is already taken.

I hope that if they select a new name that they consult with some literature, history, or classics majors before picking their new name from a mythology book index.

NW

Hoopajoops LTD (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 9:32 pm
reply ignore user
Son of a bitch, there's nowhere I can put my money but this stock... there are NO OTHER PLACES TO GO.

A bit of CDs and treasuries for safety?

Perhaps "If you are going to panic, panic first" is an ancient Chinese proverb.

DPJ seeks closer ties to China and a more regional approach. Don't think their victory would spook China;s markets.

One of the campaign planks of the winning Japanese party was to reduce Japan's exposure to US Treasuries.
Really?

Cerberus Capital Management LP plans to raise money in the fourth quarter to buy distressed companies and securities...

... because nothing says "success" like causing the distress in those companies in the first place.

re: Japan
The bureaucracy has a lot of power in setting the agenda. Until the cabinet conquers them, I don't expect much of anything. I'm not an expert, just my partially informed opinion
`
re: Freud
His hourly fee went from $25 down to $15 circa 1932. I've seen it reported elsewhere that his hourly fee was the equivalent of $8.xx in change, but I don't trust that. They probably picked a bogus Austrian Crown to USD conversion rate. In any event, $25 (1932) -> $392.98 (2009), $15 -> $235.79 (2009).
Until recently me fee was $25 per hour: as a result of the general impoverishment I have lowered this to $20 or $15. I donate one of my five hours free of charge, something which I would like to be able to do in general anyway. But I can't do that. Some of my adult children art out of work and have to be assisted or supported.

China has been talking to buying less US debt for months. Japan's new ruling party wanting the same wouldn't spook China's markets

I view a reduction in the purchases of/sales of Treasuries by price-insensitive central banks, whether Chinese or Japanese, as extremely bullish for the dollar. They've abnormally compressed real interest rates for a long time, and as those begin to rise, the USD should too.

The fact that so many disagree with me smells like opportunity.

Chinese officials have been very vocal about pulling liquidity. The Chinese Construction Bank has said they will cut lending by 70% in the second half of the year. SSE makesmost of it's moves based on liquidity and government rumors.

Japan’s opposition party says it would refuse to buy American government bonds denominated in US dollars, if elected.

I've read some comments on this board questioning how anyone could possibly reconcile Candidate Obama's campaign speech with President Obama's actions.

Just sayin' that money doesn't talk, it swears.

Okay, I didn't say that first, Bob Dylan did.

"Japan’s opposition party says it would refuse to buy American government bonds denominated in US dollars, if elected."

maybe not being able to finance deficits it's positive for USA. it's a politically correct reason for cutting deficits.

Government fighting the bureaucracy will be a tremendous source of uncertainty, combined with the inexperience of the new government who might not understand how kabuki infighting is done.

Could be a Japanese Carter administration?

NW

re: China
They cut lending from 3x 2008 to 1x 2008 in the first second of August. They weren't discreet about it. It has been confirmed ever since. It was one of the reasons that led me to make my local maxima prediction.
As for the Japanese election, it has been likely that the DPJ would take a majority for at least a month that I can remember.
`
If you try to associate every move in the market with a new piece of information, you will quickly find that there are more significant moves than there are significant pieces of information. You need to zen out and consider what is and is not possible

. . .these are the masters of the universe, or Hell at least.

They did pretend to be, didn't they, yogi?

Funny how the slide down is so much quicker than the steps up.

Volker was drunk that night. I really should go clear my ignore list again.

You need to zen out and consider what is and is not possible
True enough, but since I don't know jack about China, I got the "zen out" part down. The "considering" part I'm coming up blank.

If you try to associate every move in the market with a new piece of information, you will quickly find that there are more significant moves than there are significant pieces of information.

Very true. But 6% isn't "every move."
Now I realize a 6% (or 25% for that matter) move may be basically unmotivated.
I'm just trying to figure out if there was major news in China over the weekend that might account for (at least part of) the move.

(edit: this was in reply to EHP's 9:47 )

The Fido from Hell gets to pay themselves .5% of "assets" while they liquidate without distress over the next 4 years. Gee, I wonder if they'll realize toxicity before bonus season. And I wonder if "once-in-a-lifetime market conditions" will be an alibi in 2012.

At .5%, $125,000,000/year to sit and watch garbage rot is good work if you can get it.

Deflation everywhere Ben, hurry, run faster.

By V. Phani Kumar, MarketWatch
HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- Profits for Australian companies declined in the quarter ended June 30 from the previous three months, as businesses struggled to cope with the effects of the global economic slowdown.

Gross operating profits for Australian corporations dropped a seasonally-adjusted 7.8% during the April-to-June period, data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Monday. Economists had expected a seasonally-adjusted fall of 5%, according to economists polled by Reuters.

The data also showed that stock inventories at Australian companies dropped by 3.4% after adjusting for seasonal factors, while wages and salaries slipped 1.1%.

Once again, I somehow had 10 on ignore even though I never intentionally hit the button.

Wish I could disable "Ignore"

No major player can simply pull the plug on US Treasury ownership. The quicker a big fish sells, the more the price falls and the harder it is to sell. Selling in itself sucks them back in. Same thing for selling USD, it decreases export competitiveness. Nevermind the layers of bureaucratic input and logistics in the matter. I'm not saying it is impossible. I'm just saying that the trade imbalance will continue to wind down. At a certain point, the cost of maintaining the tactical reserves will be higher than the immediate benefit. Then the case can be made the cost-benefit is worth it, especially at money is needed to stimulate more receptive sources of demand or even secure long term points of supply.
There was a hidden metaphor there. Pulling a drain plug at the bottom of a very tall column of water is tough. Even once separated, it is liable to be sucked back in by the pressure differential until it is quite far away. However pulling the same drain plug is much easier to pull when there is little water maintaining the pressure on it.
Look at the G8 currencies other than the GBP and USD. They've relatively appreciated. It's one more wound on their hurting economies. It's likely not bearable to begin with, but if for one second there is real GDP growth in other countries at their expense then it will be intolerable. We're not likely to enter into the competitive devaluation game until next year because there is still so much trade flowing through pegged currencies and their unrepresentative currency baskets. They'll at least give it a full year of wait and see before they dump their earlier methods, which were lucrative. When the time comes that reserves re-align to actual trade flows, I expect that a majority of liquidated positions in USTs will be used to purchase USD denominated real assets. At which point the QEing will be forcibly ramped up and there will be no doubt. Of course real life tends to not be so dramatic and while this stuff will happen, it might take a few decades to get around to the paperwork.
`
Looking at commodities, the dollar index, the news, sentiment, yields, government programs. It seems obvious to me on many levels. There ultimately will be significant inflation (>5%), but it will not come right away. A good roller coaster does not move in a straight line to reach its destination.

"“We will sell only when we think it makes sense,” he said. ""

Madoff should have used that line.

Re: "Japan’s opposition party says it would refuse to buy American government bonds "

LOL, why would that be....

squidward
How about this. The -5% move is in response to prior +5% moves. For most equity sales, it is not the share being sold but rather an idea. Going down without reason is as justified as going up without reason. This hasn't even been about illusory earnings. If everybody is just collecting fees and nothing has changed, then the more likely thing after a 50% move up is a 50% move down -- not another 50% move up.
Side note:
A lot of money piled into inflationary trades this year. Too early I said, there is too much slack in demand and production will fill up inventories before anyone breaks their peg without which there is no dollar devaluation and without that the continuing decline in private credit will dominate as it leads both the Federal government and Federal Reserve in impact. Simple!

I do it one by one, when I remember, but they still mysteriously reappear.

China's exports to US way down, US budget deficits way up changes the equation

sportsfan please tell yogi how to clear ignore list . . . .

Assuming you're serious:

Go to the top of this page and click My Account

Then click on View Your Ignored Users

Then go down the list and click delete next to each name.

i bee leave a couple of us had mentioned sse earlier today on a prior thread...who was that masked man? hmmm...

Take a name asswipe,
For every $1 decline in private credit, the Treasury could print $1 in cash and still have deflation in this environment. You have no respect for how powerful credit creation/destruction is for the economy, especially a highly levered one.

For every $1 decline in private credit, the Treasury could print $1 in cash and still have deflation in this environment.
Really?

poic,

But what a game you saw! I hope you stayed till te end.

For every $1 decline in private credit, the Treasury could print $1 in cash and still have deflation in this environment. You have no respect for how powerful credit creation/destruction is for the economy, especially a highly levered one.

Agreed.

Unless they starting seriously thinking outside the box, there is no way to get the $1 of cash into the hands of consumers. If they give it to the bankers, the bankers will deposit the cash at the Fed to earn interest on the excess reserves and continue pulling loans and credit lines.

there is no way to get the $1 of cash into the hands of consumers
C4C? Tax credits? Seems like there's lots of ways ... whether they're wise or not is another topic, but seems like there's no shortage of ways...

squidward
What bureaucrat earning a salary is going to have the balls to monkey with the last decade's golden goose? How about when it's during one of their worst domestic recessions with all the ancillary pressures on government. All risk and little reward for those bureaucrats.
After a full year of giving the status quo ante an earnest effort, perceptions change. Suddenly it doesn't matter what you do people want you to try something different. Anything different from the badness associated with 2009 they'll say. Whose to oppose them at that point? The exporters' political force diminishes along with their revenues. Central bank is spending more to absorb interest rate differentials and exchange rate swings, and it offers a lower return than just about any alternative use of that money.
That was for the peg. As for the realignment of reserves, they were overweight USD. The reasons for which may have been justified if shortsighted before this crisis. For the future I think having a basket of reserves that reflects a country's actual trade will be a more prudent course

"Do you mean that it will be a year before the pegged currencies become unpegged / pegged differently?"

There sure is a lot of debt to be financed, particularly with the ~90% of the ~699BB stimulus yet to be spent. Wu and Sato are in quite the stare down with Ben and Timmy.

USD-JPY 92.7000

Someone better start buying...

EHP - thank you.

basket of reserves that reflects a country's actual trade will be a more prudent course

they will also have to figure in their contingent forex needs to cover dollar borrowing. Korea got looted in the Asian Currency Crisis by not having enough dollars on hand to repay their dollar borrowings when the going got tough.

NW

Stewie says it's also doable via FXP, like, ya know.

haven't been to a MLB baseball game since I last worked on the Street and someone picked up tab - the Mets a long time ago...
but since my parents have season tickets to Colts since they relocated to Indy have a see a few games and I think
a playoff game (did see Peyton break the most TDs in a season game, later broken by Brady)...
.... on a side note can't see how Eli Manning is worth more than Peyton, when he's on and to see him live is
pretty awesome...
it still amazes me how tired everyone gets when it seems like all they do is stand around on the field....

Eli is way overrated. A few spectacular catches, the best pass-rush defense ever, and great running backs made up for his mediocrity. Slow feet, ordinary arm. No comparison to his brother or father.

Nite All: I hope tomorrow is very dull.

energyecon - Alvaro Uribe, President of Colombia has contracted swine flu.

Stewie doesnt like decay either - his motto, "get in, get out"

So knockoff Elmo dolls are popular in China?

.......China's two step forward one step back policy makes market jittering ..... nothing more than that......

....... Goldman Sachs Says China Stocks Remain ‘Bright Spot’ (Update3) - Bloomberg.com ...... now index went down to 6.6%......

HollywoodHack
Operative word is simply
`
Don't let me put you down though, what is your explanation for why the USD has not devlaued yet?

what you allude to, the dominant place it has in global reserves. and, of course, the attraction of the US as an economy built on money-laundering with an amazing climate, decent infrastructure, the best universities on the planet and loose women.

you forgot to prognosticate on which of those factors is to change and when in order to allow for devaluation. I wouldn't be so hard on you if you didn't try to take a single phrase from my post and portray it in a dishonest manner. By all rights I would normally be asleep right now, wherefore hast thou honor fled

I should also notethat Vietnam has a big garment sector but they have to play to niche markets in US and elsewhere,
China has a decided advantage over these other countries inc Thailand because they can grow cotton and make fabric... this gives
China a 16-19% cost advantage...

I have to agree that it's more likely to be faster than most people think rather than slower.

Even though EHP is certainly right to remind us that even a "revolutionary" party in Japan is unlikely to pull a Madoff one night. ("It's all a Ponzi") But when that plug or bottleneck finally loosens...le deluge.

@Duke of Con Dao,

Here's the trailer for the original. Excellent film. First I've seen to make some sense of Eva Braun.

DOWNFALL - The Official Movie Website

right, that one about investing with Madoff was funny... in this one you'd have to know about all these fanboy things,
guess you could say the same thing about Madoff... the thing that bothered me about the Avatar teaser was why would the
female alien be wearing a bikini top?
....
this is a comment from the past but I think Ted Kennedy crossed the line on that anti-Bork speech in '87...
also, his death came me a reason to review his account of that night at Chappaquiddick with the known facts.
a party of 6 men all of whom but one were married with 6 young women... do you really believe he left the party
at 11:15 am to take her to the ferry? and that a woman would leave her handbag and keys behind? and that he
took a wrong turn from a dirt road to another dirt road when it should have turned into a paved road...

Friday:

"The dissolution earlier this year of the law firm Wolf Block has resulted in a gaping tenancy void in 1650 Arch St., a 587,021-square-foot office building in downtown Philadelphia.

That hole will result in a substantial reduction in the building's net cash flow, which evidently has prompted its owner, Behringer Harvard, to seek a modification of its $42.9 million mortgage. "

Commercial Real Estate Direct - Law Firm's Demise Spells Trouble for Loan on Philly HQ

If you give a large long-term lease to a law firm you're asking to be rolled.

I currency
after I left the Street and was living in SoHo I took a p/t job with a manufacturing co. that produced internal office signage.
was of our clients was Davis Polk in Johnson/Burgee's lipstick building and when the final bill came due we had to take a
major haircut... never do business with a law firm unless you are paid 80% upfront...

"If you give a large long-term lease to a law firm you're asking to be rolled."

In related news, the new law firm Block Wolf, has taken up residence across the street, at rates that the Behringer Harvard site can not afford to match, due to the onerous mortgage payments...

His brothers were all dead by then.

Teddy was the Fredo of the Kennedy family....

My father detested him after they slammed into each other skiing at Stowe in the late 50's, Teddy unapologetic.

Sad in a way that he wound up the strongest liberal Senator. But you can't write off the causes he supported just because he was a hypocrite.

: That would be a relief, no more reality shows, no more 'news', and just in time for Elmer Gantry to pull the emergency chord on the intertubes.

Bill could give Obama control over Internet during emergency - Bill could give Obama control of Internet during emergencies
... has this been posted yet..?

BSR that's a helluva picture during the night-time...

I was hoping for a super-kermit this week.... looks like not off to such a great start...

Just saw Mayor Bloomie say on CNBC that NY commercial real estate is showing signs of stability as some projects are closer to getting loans. If that is the measure, we should all run out and buy REITS today.

must have been an interesting night reading through the comments, but the Hang Seng closed down less than 2%. i guess they quelled the panic.

****!!!!!###### I'd like to see the BBC Smiley works again.....

I see Shenzhen indices mostly managed a 7 handle, CSI300 bloodletting finishing at -7.1%.

Should be good for 10,000 on the DOW today then.

here is a site for wildfires if it hasnt been posted

National Interagency Fire Center

Anyone else seeing an increase in theft in their areas?

Yup.... many more muggings around here. And the tighty-whitey crowd is getting anxious....

"WE PAY PROPERTY TAXES..... WHERE ARE THE COPS?"

I don't think the Fed is going to raise rates anytime soon, because they realize that the economy has only stabilized due to the bailouts, stimulus, and money printing. I feel the Fed is going to keep an easy money policy for many years in order to try to avoid deflation at any costs. So I think one of the few investment areas that should benefit is gold related assets, as the gold price should go up as the result of a the government's continued debasement of the currency. Here is a further discussion on these issues: -- link deleted by kcoop --

Today, the corporate-controlled mainstream media is working with our elected officials and the Federal Reserve to set the American people up as sheep to be slaughtered. They are encouraging Americans to go out and spend on things they don't need, when what little savings they have left will soon be worthless. Americans need to be encouraged to buy gold and silver with their savings and prepare for the real economic crisis that is ahead. Our movie being released on Friday, Debt Slave, will be a wake up call for our country. It is important for you to spread the word this weekend about Debt Slave to everybody you know, to help prevent your friends and family from being slaughtered by Bernanke.

National Inflation Association

DEA Agent shoots himself

YouTube - DEA Agent Shoots Himself

Hehe and these are the protectors folks....best to fend for yourself and the welfare of your own family

Oh and turn up the volume, the cometary is priceless..

Chicago: A Renters' Market