It is not called The Redneck Riviera for nothing. They still have a KKK chapter two towns over.
No, it was wow to me because it was just a pointless venture of futility (Note: Maybe all human endeavors are). If they had marched on town hall or picketed a house, then maybe I would have been impressed with this stuff. However, what they did is no different that some Middle Easterner burning a dummy of the U.S. president.
At least it is some kind of political process or progress. Why have a faux town hall meeting? Why not just have a bonfire with booze and burgers? Might have made 'em feel better.
Oh, hello Mr. Soul, I dropped by to pick up a reason
For the thought that I caught that my head is the event of the season
Why in crowds just a trace of my face could seem so pleasin'
I'll cop out to the change, but a stranger is putting the tease on.
I was down on a frown when the messenger brought me a letter
I was raised by the praise of a fan who said I upset her
Any girl in the world could have easily known me better
She said, You're strange, but don't change, and I let her.
In a while will the smile on my face turn to plaster?
Stick around while the clown who is sick does the trick of disaster
For the race of my head and my face is moving much faster
Is it strange I should change? I don't know, why don't you ask her?
yagij, made all the more puzzling by the fact they actively bragged on talk radio about how poorly they had behaved towards Boyd in June and they hoped he was so afraid he wouldn't show up for the town hall. They achieved that goal and then became irate because he didn't show up. Seriously, they just want something to scream about. They dont' want to be informed. I have tried that, they look at me like I"m crazy or their eyes glaze over when I bring up CDSs or CDOs or Goldman Sachs. I schooled Burnie Thompson the local radio wingnut over CDSs one day on the radio to the point he had no choice but to say "Obviously you know more about economics than I do and this topic is too hard for my audience to understand". Again, I shit you not. Yet this guy is their hero, he called for the "town hall" and by gosh they showed up.
That's pretty much what you get around here liz...
Seriously, they just want something to scream about.
That's people.
As I said several months ago, this forum is skewed.
Many people really don't understand what's happening, just that it's causing pain and annoyance.
I'd say that most people are relatively unaware even of pain.
rofl! you beat me to it, brother. KNOXVILLE? hahaha!
At least they didn't pick Chattanooga?
From a state perspective, picking Nashville or Memphis might have made sense if they wanted to pick a TN city that had some real estate speculation--although I know of a few CRE projects in Knoxville that are probably getting left high-and-dry if things stay the way they are.
While Memphis is the red-haired stepchild of MS, it is a large service-oriented city and has enough wealth to generate a minor RRE & CRE bubble. Nashville would have been a no-brainer.
But seriously, seeing that the Atlanta folks picked Knoxville just seems like they threw a dart at a map IMO.
I've been pricing used cars since Aug 5th when I got rear-ended.
I can't prove it but it sure seems like C4C program boosted used car prices by a $1k or so.
"this topic is too hard for my audience to understand"
Aye, there's the rub. How do you inform simply without detracting from the scope of the disaster. We found the weapons of mass destruction on a GS balance sheet?
Liz - spooky. While trawling around some parts of kaboomberger mostly characterized by tumbleweeds and dust devils, I came across a Friday afternoon news dump for price/estimates. Was just about to post it under a different segue, but this is perfect:
"I'd say more than half my accepted "cash offers" were either fronted investor debt or immediately replaced by mortgage instruments after closing"
This was my question. There's a lot less cash in the system than people think. In other words, we are still massively leveraged. There's lots more to go.
The attractiveness of the credit concept is both fiscal and social. Besides raising $13 billion in 2013, the CBO estimates that moving to a credit approach would increase revenue by nearly $390 billion from 2013 to 2019. The credit plan would also please critics who say the current tax system shortchanges lower- and moderate-income homeowners and encourages Americans to buy massive houses loaded down with monster-size mortgages.
Other items on the CBO's revenue-raising target list:
Get rid of all write-offs for state and local taxes, including property taxes. That would pump $343 billion into federal coffers from 2010 to 2014, and $862 billion by 2019.
Clamp a 15% cap on the value of all itemized deductions -- not just mortgage interest and property taxes but also charitable contributions, medical expenses and casualty losses. The revenue windfall: $1.3 trillion over 10 years.
Revert to the capital gains approach that prevailed before 1987. Rather than taxing most gains at 15% as the current code does, the CBO plan would exclude 45% of gains from taxation and tax the remaining 55% at an individual's regular tax rate. New money raised: $48 billion over the next decade.
* Get rid of all write-offs for state and local taxes, including property taxes. That would pump $343 billion into federal coffers from 2010 to 2014, and $862 billion by 2019.
That first point made my eyes bulge out of my head. Talk about driving people off of the grid or making them tempt the IRS. People may opt for UE just to avoid the taxes.
The second point made no sense either, but it didn't make my spine tingle.
The third point was WTFOMGBBQ! Central. 48 Billion over 10 years when we blow that much money in a month or two in Iraqistan?
Prices are good for sellers of used cars right now. My son's Honda Civic got totalled out in an accident in February, so we were reseaching all sort of deals, including selling my wife's 2005 Jeep Wrangler (I hate the damn thing - I was for getting rid of it) and buying a new Honda and just having my wife and son share the car for a few months until my son left for college. We decided to give the Jeep to my son and buy my wife a new car, figuring we would just sell the Jeep when my son went to college. I just started researching prices this week and the Jeep is worth more now than it was in February. Between no new car sales and no trade ins, and then new car sales but no sellable clunker, they are in short supply.
"* Clamp a 15% cap on the value of all itemized deductions -- not just mortgage interest and property taxes but also charitable contributions, medical expenses and casualty losses. The revenue windfall: $1.3 trillion over 10 years."
I don't think the non-profits will like that very much. Not that that is a bad thing. The Scientology folks might be a bit put out as well.
What is the deal with going back to the 45/55% on cap gains? What is the downside to 0/100%?
Well, the young aren't going to get SS or Medicare--or think that they won't. Then they have to pay the Feds, the State, the County, and the City and none of the taxes are reduced further up the food chain? It made my heart jump just thinking about such an idea.
No taxation without representation doesn't really cover this situation, but it sure does feel that way. We may end up with a new rallying cry if that kind of batsh** policy sees the light of day.
Terry - thanks. That's what I thought, it seems like used car prices are up in just the past three weeks since I started pricing a few specific models. So I'm thinking the spike has probably peaked and should fall off gradually. I'll probably postpone a purchase for 2-3 more months.
remember that local govs were rising property taxes while dropping the line "don't worry, it's tax deductible". not bad to keep local spending on check.
sure, does it pay to work otherwise? ie: when gov spending goes out of control and there's no will to cut spending?
For the previous thread (was off watching Inglorius Basterds @ Muvico),
I know of one asset management staffing up to rent REOs back to the current occupants in various states. The name of the company is called TenantAccess.
I also know of many houses which had NOD filed much longer than 3 months ago and are sitting there, not foreclosed and NTS not filed. I know one of them got a loan mod even though the property is NOO. There is some serious can kickage going on right now.
"It would crush home prices"
Good point, I like it better already.
agree, prices do have to come down (specially on the coasts). what it's being done now is not trying to move prices up but showing the average joe that everything that's possible is being done... it's a political gimmick. prices will adjusts to wages, the only question is when.
Stupendous deficit spending and declining tax revenues means tax increases. There's no 'policy' about it.
No, anyone who has read about countries/empire with fiscal problems knows that tax increases did not help increase government coffers in these kinds of situations. It just drives more money out of the "system" and people start cutting down on their official productivity.
If our politicians start acting that way, it will be interesting time to live. Granted, I'm using the loosest definition of "live" and "interesting". Not sure if there has ever been a French-revolution style to a declining democracy. I know that Rome's Triumvirate killed people and stole their wealth, but again, we aren't talking about the plebs here.
there is just not a good supply of trade-ins or cars coming off lease.
My thinking is that another crash / fall-off in economic activity will reduce current sales and cause another glut.
Probably take longer than 2-3 months, though, although I'm thinking that people might react faster this time.
" people adjust, they would not sit idly by and pay more taxes.."
Baby boomers will require a lot of money when they are retired, for regular needs and wants, and lots of medical care. That money will be taken from someone, somehow. Actual collected taxes will rise, a lot, whether then working people like it or not.
come on! it's people that can sustain a lifestyle without working the ones that will cut on productivity or those with flexible working patterns. it doesn't mean the end of civilization, at the most it doesn't give incentives for the rat race to go on.
remember that the maximum marginal rate in usa was 90% in the 50s and part of 60s? who worked back then more than absolutely needed once they hit that tax rate?
"remember that the maximum marginal rate in usa was 90% in the 50s and part of 60s?"
Yeah but Regan traded away a rat's nest of old deductions away along with those changes. No one in the top bracket ended up paying anywhere near top rates, and probably not near what the plebes were. "Only little people pay taxes."
Temperatures seem to be rising. Over at Jesse's his intro to TrimTabs reporting record insider selling refers to financials being Obama's "New Orleans".
Meanwhile Denninger and Jim Willie have the gloves off, no change there, except this time it's vs each other...
My wife grew up in the Colorado front range and we used to live out there and she wanted to be a Colorado Mountain girl and own a Wrangler . . thing rides like a damn truck, which it is. She didn't even like driving it. My three teens at the time, however, loved it!
"And the boomers will not be denied their retirements and medical care. "
of course not. there's the reality of limited resources and a demographic tsunami. so "needs" like independent living will have to be reconsider by many. they are just too expensive given the resources that most of them were able to save.
believe a lot of those needs will be redefined as wants, there's no way to pay for all those liabilities imho
I have to agree with that sentiment. Getting a hip replaced may be an option, but getting the gov't to replace your hip with a high-quality athletic-grade replace will not be an option. I've been reading about this situation playing out in places like Germany, and it is getting uglier between the country's productive base and the retirement base. As their economy stagnates and recedes, the pressures of the Wants and Needs get worse.
You can usually safely assume that 90% of the people complaining about federal income taxes pay under $10,000 per year in federal income taxes. Half the folks pay no income tax or get money back. It's pretty hard to have a marginal tax revolution; the only way taxes are collected is if the person is making more money. This is a significant reason why the states have seen their tax collections plummet. It's also the reason you hear people complain most about property taxes.
there will be some give, but boomers will out-vote everyone for a long while yet.
i wouldn't be surprised if they manage to increase their entitlements again in an unfunded bases (like prescription drug benefit) even as the demographic tsunami is hitting. these guys ... most are in denial about what's feasible and what's not. financially wise the young have 1/3 of the disposable income they used to have when they were that age, so they believe that by not buying a video game they will be able to sustain 1/2 a retiree more per worker... the numbers are just not there.
Federal income tax rates are relatively low now for just about all income levels, compared to where they have averaged in the U.S. over the last 60 years.
Total taxes including state/local income, sales tax, property and misc., are relatively high.
The tax breaks for homeowners, including deductible interest, property taxes, and exemption of capital gains on sale, have rarely been more favorable.
So clearly late boomers' retirements will be cut back, as will their medical care etc, but the amount of resources necessary to support a large number of old boomers will force much higher taxes, and the biggest tax enforcement gaps will have to be closed.
Also, you are assuming that our democracy will continue to function smoothly in a vote and accept process. Crime rates in many metro areas are increasing, and the elderly are finding themselves as a large part of that increase. As the young are increasingly pressed upon to provide for their elders, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of predators v. prey action between the elders who have stuff and the young guys who have nothing to lose.
"Half the folks pay no income tax or get money back."
Income tax is only a tiny portion of revenue... Payroll taxes are a big bite for those in the bottom half, and the Boomer elected gov has spent what should have been saved over the years, and then some.
Other rich countries often have much higher taxes than the US (e.g France). Is their civlization falling apart? Not last time I checked (and I have family living there). Not saying it's good, just that the boomer pressure will lift US taxes a lot.
demographically (you see this in germany but also in japan, korea, italy, ...) the higher burden that the elderly put on the young delays household formation and lowers the fertility rate. making the issue a bigger one. you can call it a vicious demographic cycle.
now, if the baby boomers reap the upside of the demographic wave, why not asking htem to share the downside? i don't see why they should be shield from the decline in the standards of living. i see how their voting power makes them a priority in japan, for example. but it ends up back firing as the young stays to live with them (cannot afford housing), don't form a household, are temp workers even in their 40s with low wages so cannot contribute as expected towards social security either.
Places like Detroit or Memphis have "official" reports showing the crime rates dropping, but there is some debate because there is an argument to be made that the police are increasingly not responding to crime in various areas due to issues like lack of manpower.
Besides if like many people here, you doubt the gov't UE or budget numbers, are you going to place more faith in a P.D.'s crime stats?
Boomers can't vote people to work, they'll have to pay them. The increased taxes may be paid directly by younger workers, but they'll be paid indirectly by the boomers.
People, generally again, don't have a problem with high taxes as much as they have a problem with poor spending. The perception is that our taxes primarily benefit the oligarchy through in part advantages given to mulitnational corporations and the elderly.
Our city has stopped responding to car and home break-ins - you have to phone in a report, but then never hear a word - I think the drop in property crimes is related to non-reporting (or the police not adding the phone reports to the totals)
"The increased taxes may be paid directly by younger workers, but they'll be paid indirectly by the boomers."
If there are 50 million boomers retired, not earning anything, and most with practically nothing saved, how can you tax them? They will vote themselves health care, food, housing, golf....
"People, generally again, don't have a problem with high taxes as much as they have a problem with poor spending."
i agree, as long as they see their taxes going towards services that they need and appreciate it's ok imho. issue with the young, if entitlements and unfunded pensions do crowd out spending in services that they care about, then why would they be ok about paying for htem?
"Other rich countries often have much higher taxes than the US (e.g France). Is their civlization falling apart? Not last time I checked (and I have family living there). Not saying it's good, just that the boomer pressure will lift US taxes a lot."
Yeah but they did not get there overnight, and they have some pretty sweet benefits for the non-retired. Like free collage ed/health care/and or months of vacation. Those are now luxuries Grandpa Boomer may not be able to afford to entice Junior to provide care. Cause Grandpa Boomer spent his retirement during the boom years.
The only way we get out of here is by soft or hard default.
Social Security can be extended for decades by making incremental changes that won't stir huge backlash.
For example, 100% of benefits could become taxable for everybody. The taxes IRS collects on benefits go straight back into the OASDI trust fund, so it would add billions (on paper of course) to Social Security funding.
The apparatus is already in place, due to the 2003 law that income-related Medicare premiums, to income-relate Social Security benefits. The apparatus involves data-sharing between IRS and SSA. Nobody asks you how much money you made (two years ago) before they jack up your Medicare premiums. If you reported 2007 MAGI above $85k single or $170k joint, IRS told SSA and they automatically withheld the higher Medicare premium from your 2009 Social Security. They could do the same with Social Security benefits of the highest income people pretty fast.
They also could increase the penalty for starting benefits before full retirement age of 66.
All this probably will be done in the next 5-10 years.
Medicare is a different story. It can't be rehabilitated by incremental changes over time.
"they have some pretty sweet benefits for the non-retired."
yep, that's were i see a compromise. if the young are offered 1 and 1/2 month of vacations, 1 year paid maternity leave, free university, universal health coverage and subsidized child care so that the mother can work... then... i think the young will be ok with high taxes.
When you have a large group of people, let's say 50 million, who are old and not working, they will need and want a lot of actual physical things. How do you get those things in their hands? Well, taxes on working folks, that are then funneled into spending programs for the retired is a simple and time-honored way. Whether you default or not, you still have to keep supplying them with the goods and services that go with their voting power.
I'm not sure the young will be paid off so easily. Of course, I'm running under the assumption of long term US decline compared to the rest of the world. I think the Golden Age is done.
"If you reported 2007 MAGI above $85k single or $170k joint, IRS told SSA and they automatically withheld the higher Medicare premium"
medicare premiums are nominal (pay less than 1/4th of the cost). and sorry, but those income limits are too high imho, how many people does it affect? 10% of the retirees?
There's a ton of slack in the system. A large # of jobs are paperwork / makework jobs whose primary purpose is to redistribute goods & services. In theory, they can be converted into more productive jobs. Most of The Game is in financial paper, taxes and real estate values. Subtract those out and what people actually need to live and work are relatively small.
"let's say 50 million, who are old and not working, they will need and want a lot of actual physical things. How do you get those things in their hands?"
just a few touches, i think they are key:
"let's say 50 million, who are old and not working, they will need and want a lot of actual physical things. How do you determine whether the things that they want are really needed and get those things in their hands?"
Audit the Fed. Two years ago those three words were rarely heard and never from an average American. The campaign against the Fed is probably the most powerful instrument for change in our country. Following the money always leads to truth in the why of events and who decided. Many roads lead back to the Fed.
Attacking the Fed and making it a target of populist rage is one of the many tinderboxes waiting to be lit going forward. Cui bono is yet to be seen.
Vitriol spewing at Prof Krugman and the death of Sen Kennedy is bordering on the irrational. Always surprising to see where emotion is expressed.
"I'm not sure the young will be paid off so easily."
What if the young DO decide to go Galt and do like the Boomers did, and start communes and co-ops and tune out? Radical immigration policy? What do the boomers give to get Juan to wipe their ass? Citizenship?
Always surprising to see where emotion is expressed.
Why? People can rarely vent/rage on the real sources of their frustrations for many reasons. Vent at Sen. Kennedy's death or their boss/spouse/representative/child for whatever is the real source?
yes, clearly there will be pressure down on the boomers' expectations, and pressures against higher taxes on future workers, and so on. But I doubt that the boomers will tolerate a 50% reduction in their living standards in retirement.
if might only bring the day of reckoning closer to us, might not be a bad thing. who knows the size of the cash economy in usa? i'd go long in bartering.
One hates to answer fictionalized analogizes. There is a reason they make good fiction. The communes of the 60s were the latest incarnations of utopian movements going back to the 1700s in this country.
Damn, it's nice to know someone's talking sense! I the CBO!
Tops on the CBO's hit list for housing: Slash deductions for homeowner mortgage interest from the present $1.1-million limit to $500,000, phased in with $100,000 annual reductions starting in 2013.
Sweet!
The CBO offered up a second option if Congress wants to raise a lot more money: Replace the mortgage interest deduction with a flat 15% tax credit for everybody with mortgage amounts below the declining limits in the first option. Rather than taking write-offs tied to income tax bracket, every homeowner would get a credit worth 15% of mortgage interest paid.
I've argued here before that the current Mortgage Interest Deduction fucks everyone in Flyover Country. I'd love to see this!
Even if their numbers are a , these reforms are just the right thing to do!
I don't know his purely academic work. All I see are his endless purely political carping. He appears as committed to redistributive economic policies as Laffer is to low tax rates. Both twist everything to support their real agendas. Therefore, I cannot rely on either for anything.
But I doubt that the boomers will tolerate a 50% reduction in their living standards in retirement.
I doubt it will be that much, assuming the current system holds together.
What, really, do you need people for?
To grow food? A huge leverage in that now.
To make stuff? A huge leverage is possible if the U.S. really wanted to do it.
To build houses?
A good portion of boomers will be working part-time for years past retirement, too.
Current money system != real goods & services or what's fairly easy to improve.
You pick the Amish, I'll go with Amana colony. The descendents of the Amana colony are all mainstreamed and paying taxes like everyone else. The norm is for utopian experiments to fail (not last 2 generations.)
"How much do the Amish or Mennonites pay in taxes? "
they do income taxes. they were allowed to drop out of the social security ponzi thanks to a couple of memorable episodes. they should be made into a movie. i'll visit them next week by the way. going mennonite is another way of dropping out of (part of) the "bill it to the next generation" scheme.
medicare premiums are nominal (pay less than 1/4th of the cost). and sorry, but those income limits are too high imho, how many people does it affect? 10% of the retirees?
The idea is that when you turn 65, you're suppose to get something back for all that money you and your employer have paid into Medicare through FICA. Remember, there's no cap on the Medicare portion of FICA, so high-income people pay in a lot.
What you get is all of Part A and a subsidy of up to 75% of the actual cost of Part B.
They say the highest 6% of the income spectrum now pays higher Medicare Part B premiums. The law is set up to automatically increase premiums of the highest income people (above current amounts) if Medicare funding falls below a red line.
Health care is somewhat labor intensive. And I am not talking doctors, although if Boomer was smart he'd be investing heavily in medical schools right now. But, Nurses administrators, engineers, technicians, orderlies... Until we get to a Puppeteer autodoc....
Seems the discussion assumes that boomers will be retiring at 65 or so. Doubt it. I suspect the boomers will be working way longer than previous generations. That sorta changes the dynamics a bit methinks.
japan will come up with little robots. from taking the blood pressure, temperature, daily pills, talking to doctors to company. those machines look somewhat scary but are amazing.
artificial monopoly.
a lot of what doctors do (diagnosis) is being coded into software.
today's health care could be substantially restructured, pushing a lot of work down to "lower skill levels".
So, if the Saudi's suddenly decided to not sell us any more oil, are we going to vote them into submission?
+1 LoL
I took it as a tongue-in-cheek snark because they cannot currently exist without U.S. support of their only export product--maybe someday--but I must admit that the concept of millions of elderly Americans voting foreign sovereigns into submission--especially over a resource as important as oil--to be a great mental image.
Protect the king! The retirees are coming baring false teeth and walkers!
It takes an awful lot of pills to deal with obesity and diabetes and other age related ailments to keep working... Those sweetheart deals that PharmCo cut with W and O' may not hold up.
"I suspect the boomers will be working way longer than previous generations. "
read that average was 75 (25-50 years ago, blamed early retirement vogue and public employers giving early retirement schemes)... seemed very high though. anybody know this?
It boils down to control of resources, and workers are also a resource. If you want a resource you have to (eventually) have to pay for it, you can't just vote for it.
It's exactly that idea that has brought down prior empires and is bringing down this one.
Retirment is a modern concept. It was nice while it lasted.
More seriously, the boomers should be able to survive on asset depreciation. The house might look like hell when they keel over, but they'll have housing.
People deteriorate at different rates, so I think instead of the ret age moving up a lot uniformly, most of the increase will be from healthy and well-paid (or desperate) subgroups. And some will just work less and less. So it will become complicated, not like today when you go from working your last full 8-hour day to playing golf and napping all day until you die.
Your math is a tad off... What do rates have to go to to get US Americans to buy this debt? What does double digit interst rates and inflation do to equities? Home prices? Boomer is looking at his house fall to record low levels his 410K is gonnna get whacked some more as the smart money runs for the exit and his cash on hand will go poof. What can he do with those votes to get Junior to grab a gun and protect his oil interests?
"workers are also a resource. If you want a resource you have to (eventually) have to pay for it, you can't just vote for it."
true, but imagine the situation of somebody in his 20s or early 30s. there's the boomers issue, ... wouldn't be optimal for these youngsters to (instead of delaying) anticipating retirement while their return on labor is low and their joints don't hurt. go surfing ... (this to be done only by those that can put food on the table).
only once most of the boomers are gone, given improved demographics return on labor should be better. hence the surfers enter the labor force. true, they will be... lets say 50s-60s but their spirit sure will be young, ready to work till they drop (as they would had have to anyway, so no loss there).
Mauldin makes the point that given boomers outnumbering workers they'll have to compete for their services and thus surrender a greater share of their accumulated assets. Sure, that can be offset by opening the floodgates of immigration, but I think you'd see a civil war if that happened. Remember, the revolution was fought over "taxation without representation", and the workers will feel totally unrepresented.
The idea of basically scavenging (beach bumming, whatever) is dependent upon being able to get subsistence. This requires some combination of public and private property. While the idea of shacking up with 4 guys in a 2 bedroom unit off the beach may be appealing at 25, it isn't appealing at 35 or 45. It particularly isn't appealing once you have a wife and child. At the societal level, you are looking at subsistence farming or some variation. Subsisting is a lot more difficult work than what these slacker idealists think.
"Mauldin makes the point that given boomer's outnumbering workers they'll have to compete for their services and thus surrender a greater share of their accumulated assets"
So we'll see higher per capita income for workers in their prime, reduced to lower aftertax pay by the taxes to pay for boomers needs/wants.
"While the idea of shacking up with 4 guys in a 2 bedroom unit off the beach may be appealing at 25, it isn't appealing at 35 or 45. It particularly isn't appealing once you have a wife and child."
Go long campgrounds, shanty-towns and double wides...?
Go long campgrounds shanty-towns and double wides...?
Isn't that kinda already happening as people are losing their homes and jobs? Scone I believe has talked about shanty-towns existing out on OR, and I know Sacramento has had its token tent city grow to the point that they wanted to evict the folks.
I'd imagine that these people will get taxed ala patientrenter's methodology too?
"I'd imagine that these people will get taxed ala patientrenter's methodology too? "
Damn hippies! History echoes. Boomers are nearing the completion of the transformation to that of which they once opposed. The coup de grace will be when they start an unwinnable war in and attempt to secure their hegemony... Oh, right.
So we'll see higher per capita income for workers in their prime, reduced to lower aftertax pay by the taxes to pay for boomers needs/wants.
Not likely.
The era of America running up the national credit card will soon be over, which means that acquisition of needs will require surrendering of assets, and the boomers hold those assets. Workers making things? There will always be a country out there providing cheaper labor, free of our tax burden.
When the boomers are retired, UE will be very low. Lots of demand for labor.
Huh?
You are making this statement after reading the latest numbers showing that the elderly are working longer, holding more jobs, and occupying more part-time work as a continuing trend, right?
If you are talking mortality rate, I'd agree, but many of the elderly are no where near retiring or being able to retire sans eating dog food.
I'm waiting for the rest of the country to figure out that there is a fairly high floor on the supply side of labor. We witnessed it somewhat when gas prices shot up. People started accepting jobs closer to room. The up shot is that is costs quite a bit for a person to work today. It ain't about coming up with $2/day for bus fare. A family needs two cars in order for each spouse to work. This is going to cause its own problems.
OT:
I'm happy to report that there is no one in the coffee shop tonight even beginning to touch upon what we are discussing here. Youngsters are out on their dates. Oldsters working and gossiping about work. Completely void of any
"It particularly isn't appealing once you have a wife and child. "
true, i'm there (wife). our version (after calculating net wage given very high taxes on nyc, implicit - very expensive full time child care- and explicit) was just to drop out of labor force and see how things go. i do productive stuff (got a bounty from the crash and took family out of stock mkt before it, convinced some not to buy RE near the peak, ...) just not for a wage. it's not that productive actually as they are for the most part mere transfers. not happy about that. someday i'll make something!!!
anyway it paid off big time so far, but who knows what's going to happen. and somehow i still believe there's a big chance for net wages (specially those of 2nd earner in expensive cities) to go even lower. we don't own cars, that's not the issue for us.
"You are making this statement after reading the latest numbers showing that the elderly are working long, holding more jobs as a continuing trend, right?"
No. I hadn't heard of those numbers. But it's exactly what I'd expect.
I am thinking further out. What's happening this month is not a reloiable indicator of what will happen over the next 20-30 years. Demographics is the only way to forecast trends that far out. With a lot of older folks per younger person, there will be a lot of need for younger folks' coontribution. Their wages per capita will go up, but taxes will make the net lower, since the taxes are what will be used to give the older folks the money to buy goods and services from the younger folks. Just basic demog/econ.
"Demographics is the only way to forecast trends that far out."
plus labor productivity. our increase in demographics comes from minorities educated for the most part in the worse part of the public school system... consequences might not be the best in that area.
Totally. If I didn't have places like CR to visit, I'd be ready to commit myself to an insane asylum--if we have any of them still open. Growing debt, shrinking revenues, increasing UE, decreasing cure rates. If you just dropped in here with no external knowledge, you would think the world is partying like it was 1999.
NYC and about 4 other urban areas are the exception. If you aren't picky about your neighborhood, you can live very cheaply in NYC. This isn't true in the rest of the country.
All that matters to you is your own situation. Is you debt growing? Are you facing UE? Are you being foreclosed on? We don't bear the weight of the world.
well, another 2 options are the projects (mostly uptown manhattan and bronx) and squatters (with it's own non profit, "Picture The Homeless" that aims at redistributing empty unused space)
"Chicago and less-so Milwaukee. Both have fine ghettos with $150/month rooms for rent. "
nyc, 5 years ago you couldn't get anything (including illegal basements) for less than $500, it only got worse. rents are going lower but mostly on prime rents, vacancies up across the board though.
After reading some of the comments here, I'm curious to know how many people have really ever been in charge--or ever taken charge--of their own destiny.
sometimes a hose is just a hose
all this weirdness of trying to figure costs and hours, etc , is one reason I think a standardized 32 or (less likely 36) hour workweek will happen. It's just all too complex and hard to price and predict for J6P
When rents drop these "cash flow" investors are going to get kicked to the curb. My neighborhood is littered with "For Rent" signs on houses that have been recently foreclosed and purchased. A rental without a tenant is just a piece of land that your throw money into. How low can rents go? We're going to find out here in the next year.
renterinNYC, I see your comment about younger folks being better off just waiting out the boomers before they apply themselves seriously to working. It's an interesting idea, and I haven't thought it through yet, but I look forward to doing so.
The boomers who stay in the workforce past former retirement age will mostly seek income supplementation, not income replacement. They'll work part time and probably work cheap. That suggests wage suppression from boomer competition. Just guessing.
mp, define destiny
I burned my old life to the ground, joined a sex club and my fear of death is fairly low now.
No desire to start my own business though.
Wish corporations ran right but I'm inclined to a city or state job ow
Apple opened a store in our town, and had to go over for a car charger for wifes I phone. Wow, was I under dressed, nor did I have an appointment. Maybe 100 people in there, employees gliding around like they were on skates. Someone finally helped me. ( too under dressed I suppose ) , no receipt, will e mail it to me. What recession?
Mauldins comments were as dark as I've ever seen him.
mp
I agree with you on when the gold age ended, somewhere in the late 70s... didn't Carter say the American people had a malaise of the
spirit... at least for the town I grew up in Indiana everything has gobe downhill since - example, a year go they closed the wire manufacturing
plant (Essex Wire) which employed about 120. the operation was moved to Mexico. now, Essex is willing to sell the land and building except to
a potential competitor or give the factory to the town as a gift. ...
what light manufacturing there was there has pretty much left leaving us with 3 major employers: the county hospital, the junior college and agriculture...
with the right machinery one farmer alone can do alot...
now the town is about 39% on some kind of gov. aid...
....
yes, I am quite aware that Nikita was complaining about those missiles pointed at his dachau on the Black Sea for some years, the amazing thing is the
promise they made with Bobby was that the missile exchange was not a quid pro quo which it was... Jack came out of that moment of reckless behavior
looking like the 'Man' thanks to the east coast media... 'we were eyeball to eyeball with the Russians and they were the first to blink', I think Rusk said that.
Mauldin likes to tell himself he warned it was coming waaaaay back when. Well, I been reading him for a long time, and he's the world's most arrogant analyst.
If he warned, and I'm not saying he didn't, then he said something like, " Now look Timmy, this is not the wisest direction you could take your life toward."
Well, he likes to say we'll 'muddle through'. He's been saying that all along actually. 'Not to worry, things will be fine eventually.' blah, blah, blah...
Dark? Darker than ever? Well....maybe he's suffering from those post partum blues, what with him keeping us (the disinterested) up on all his gadding about, his sweet suite at the Ranger's ball yard, and the marrying off of his many offspring. Maybe that's what's got his dauber down. Must have been adding up all the bills from the weddings. O! and he's moving out of the sweet suite.
To put it another way, I have very rarely ever seen a person choose to live lower than they have previously. People are all talk for the most part.
I am seeing a whole generation of skilled blue collar workers live lower than they have previously.
Choice is only indirectly part of the equation. Few understand how choosing to turn every choice over to government hasn't made them richer.
All, we're continuing to see load spikes, which I'm sure some of you have experienced. Examining the logs further, it appears glossary editing may have something to do with it, as it causes a lot of processing to happen every time someone makes a change. I'm going to temporarily restrict access to editing the glossary (you'll still be able to view it), and see if that alleviates the problem. If it does, I'll see if there are things we can do to restore the feature without sacrificing performance.
I appreciate everyone's patience with this - it's a royal pain.
"Mortgage interest deduction going to be curtailed?"
Not bloody likely in the near future. This "article" looks a lot like a "death panels' story in that it appears to be designed to spark furor and sell papers. Don't get me wrong, I think all deductions should be abolished and the base rate reduced by any gains over a balanced budget. But these proposals have far, far, less likelihood of happening than "Audit the Fed" does.
"Revenue Options" starts on 175 and there is a whole laundry list of them (65). To mention simply mortgage interest deduction does an injustice to the whole report. But I basically think of it as a long-term 5-10 year plan on what might be coming down the road as far as taxes.
I believe it was Duke who asked about reducing the amount of foreign tax credit...
The mortgage interest change is nothing when you compare it to one of the biggest revenue options. "Impose an upstream price on emission of greenhouse gasses". It will raise $800B from 2010-2019. Replacing the MID with a tax credit would only raise a little under $400B.
Of course the LA Times wouldn't have any reason to highlight the housing and other tax changes over taxing greenhouse gasses...
I appreciate everyone's patience with this - it's a royal pain.
Ahhh, ken-- when I say I appreciate what you've done for us, and what you're currently doing for us, I'm sure I speak for all those who know and those who can only guess what maintaining a site like this costs in sweat, aggravation, and frustration. No matter what happens, at least we have someone tangible to pray to,...
Re: Mauldin's comments
We can be "ruthless" as a country. No one ever said we have to pay the debt back. If you get more comfortable with that fact, you don't mind ringing up the high deficits, etc. Aren't we already past the point where the dollar status as a reserve currency is up in the air? So if there will be only one chance to lose reserve currency status, why not blow up the currency in a major way instead of having it taken from us on the terms of other folks.
I dunno, but I want to design and sell some type of t-shirt that basically has the message of; "thanks for the cans, suckers!"...
Blackhalo,
Its basically a two-page summary of how the energy cap-and-trade plan would work.
This option would create a regulatory program requiring emitters of large amounts of greenhouse gases to pay a “price” to emit those gases. The policy could be instituted as a tax on emissions or as part of a cap-and-trade system. In either case, payments could be made “upstream,” by domestic energy producers and importers of fossil fuels and other products that lead to greenhouse gases, or “downstream,” on users of energy where the emissions actually occur. Both approaches would yield similar results because the amounts paid upstream for the most part would be passed downstream in higher prices for fuel and for goods and services that use fuel in their produc-tion. Those higher prices, in turn, would create incentives throughout the U.S. economy to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
Damn, quick search of Google reveals that "Thanks for the cans, suckers!" is not a common phrase at all and I'd probably have a clever little t-shirt design if I put an effective image on it...
We can be "ruthless" as a country. No one ever said we have to pay the debt back.
No doubt this will happen if it comes down to it. The US military is still unmatched in the sea and air and will be for decades. But it's still a worst case scenario.
We can be "ruthless" as a country. No one ever said we have to pay the debt back.
Ugh. A hard default is such a BAD idea. How many USAians and companies and corps have T-Bills on the balance sheet as assets. Oil would be a cash only deal and not OUR cash. Exchange rates for dollar+1 for whatever OPEC will take would be usurious.
A soft default is what is in the works. Ben's presses ain't stopping soon and if it does, Timmy will start minting billion dollar coins.
No doubt this will happen if it comes down to it. The US military is still unmatched in the sea and air and will be for decades. But it's still a worst case scenario.
OK, we have 2 declared wars going on, and shadow wars all over against drugs, terrorism, poverty, etc.
And you want to start another one?
I think our military needs a break if not a long vacation.
I appreciate everyone's patience with this - it's a royal pain.
I really do appreciate all that you put into making not only a great platform for open debate and in my case just shooting the bull.
My two brass slugs would say make the glossary just a link like the polls, etc, and we can just reference people to it.
I have a habit of having a couple dozen or more windows open and I click on the open window to bring it to the front. And often I end up clicking on some silly link into the glossary that pops it up, then I have to come back and reload the current postings. More load on the server and a waste of electrons.
In any case, thanks.
I have to admit I kind of choked on that one when I read it.
It's something you have to see to believe.
Have you ever been to a Ranger's ball? I would think he has a very healthy daughter.
After reading some of the comments here, I'm curious to know how many people have really ever been in charge--or ever taken charge--of their own destiny.
Destiny? I don't think that word means what you think it means.
Has anyone? Or did they just delude themselves into thinking they did.
Shit happens to the best and worst of us, anyone who thinks they control their future has an ego that is ripe for destruction.
Granted, the harder I work the luckier I get, and fortune does favor the prepared mind. But just when you think your prepared and lucky, life slaps you in the face or kicks you some place else. Get used to it.
But I do agree that some people posting here think very highly of themselves, which they should as long as it can still sync up with what I would call reality. Not that I really understand it, but I do recognize some common delusion we all share.
So on to something very important.
What football teams and games do I need to clear my schedule for and make sure I enjoy them properly!
Going way back to other threads.
Did anyone notice how little of federal income comes from corporation's, compared to how much wealth and assets are locked up and controlled by them.
Now I'm a pretty conservative person, but I seem to keep asking myself how long we will continue to write tax laws by the corp, for the corp and stick it to the wage earner.
Oh, and the more you earn, the more you burn in tax write off's so the only people who actually pay any tax's are the ones who make below 250K and can not afford good lawyers and CPA's fresh out of doing their revolving door job with the IRS.
Please don't get me wrong, I am very willing to pay more tax's if I see some benefits from it. Just in the last 20 years I have been hit with massive increases, and decreases in services. I think I need to buy a good 4x4 just to drive on the local roads.
"Did anyone notice how little of federal income comes from corporation's, compared to how much wealth and assets are locked up and controlled by them."
I think corporate earnings may be down a little bit as of late. Plus corporate earnings get taxed twice. Once as corporate income, and again as dividends and cap gains.
Blackhalo -
I'm all for taxing up front as much as they do a wage-looser, and make the dividends tax free, or if you want to really screw the bag-holder average person reverse it which will happen.
The real point now is people focus on the double taxation and look at the back end and ignores that the front end pays almost nothing compared to assets and locked up wealth.
But, they can afford to buy the votes and the lawyers to dodge the tax's, I can't wait for the "aggressive questioning" of the law to make the free money from the bailout funds a tax write off for the TBTF companies. Some of it is known, the rest will be coming to a blog near you soon, dished out in a healthy and sustainable dosage that the public will consume, digest and ignore.
OK, it's late and I think I have an attitude problem.
I live in tampa, been waiting for a while to buy a place as prices were too bubbly for my taste a few yrs ago even tho i could pay cash for what i wanted, my wife and I started looking in early 2008 and the stuff we found priced right needed too much work or stuff we did like people were being unreasonable, I finally did up buying a house here in march of this yr....the house across the street was sold cash also but needed a lot of work, also this house was a short sale, don't think its an investor as they buyer is moving into the house finally, i live in one the nicer areas of tampa so i doubt this is common throughout the area
Not that I really understand it, but I do recognize some common delusion we all share.
Successful memes displace competing memes. The most successful meme never acknowledges itself because to acknowledge itself is to acknowledge competitors. These memes are exceptionally difficult to displace.
The Sun revolves around the Earth.
The Earth is flat.
All cultures are equal.
The solution to overproduction is working harder to produce more.
Potential work is infinite.
I think if you like the place, and your OK with dropping the cash.
Good for you, you have to live somewhere and from here on out it is sunk cost and you are not speculating on a pie in the sky.
If you loose money long term, so what, we all live an learn. But odds are you can now continue to save money, and build your net worth in reality.
broward - Successful memes displace competing memes.
Morning, hopefully everything is going well for this wonderful day. ---
I really have focused on an "archetype" than an "meme" through my life, perhaps because an archetype is automatically recognized deep down for an individual, while a meme takes some thought and adjustment. I just don't think your average person thinks any more and it takes an earth mover to shift someone out of their comfort zone.
As I pointed out earlier, it's late and I think I have an attitude problem.
That may become my, "Someday this war is...."
broward -
The solution to overproduction is working harder to produce more.
Potential work is infinite.
Now, may I ask WTF is this?
I know many people who work their tails off and produce nothing.
I know many companies that don't work hard and consume a lot of capitol.
Possibly many consume more than they produce and compensate for the over production of the few, but where is the compensation for it?
Tax the over producers to provide potential work for the under producers to do nothing?
For some reason that makes sense to me, so either I need to work more, or drink less beer. Or just work really hard, produce nothing and drink a lot of beer.
I just don't think your average person thinks any more and it takes an earth mover to shift someone out of their comfort zone.
Completely agree.
I do informal measurements of denial & intractability in various ways, CR is one venue.
I see quite a bit of denial here in certain streams.
People ignore what they don't want to hear.
It's somewhat measurable.
I'd like to note I'm a daytrader and work from home and before was living/working out of a 750 sqft condo with my wife 3 dogs and cat , so pretty much had to make the move, found the perfect place with a mother in law suite so office now is bigger than my old condo lol but now in the office i have a pool table and a kegerator haha
broward -
I see quite a bit of denial here in certain streams.
People ignore what they don't want to hear.
It's somewhat measurable.
OK, but don't let anyone know, it might upset their "shiny happy people" life.
I have been freaked out for the last 8 years, and still am.
I still don't see a way out that is realistic. politically capable.
All I see is a lot of desperation, spite, anger, and foolishness/stupidity. I can see it because I feel it also, yet no one rocks the boat, or else they become label'd, nuts.
Personally when I hear that I'm reminded of McAuliffe at the Battle of Bastogne. Not very elegant but very fitting.
That's OK, its all right.
So how long has it been since your last trade?
-- Lame attempt at a 12 step program.
I can't be an alcoholic, they go to meetings. I'm just a drunk....
Wow, you like to live dangerously. I'm a chicken, I work kind of hard for my money and I want to keep it. I have found that people have gotten very good at taking it away from me.
I think I am on the bleeding edge of the new reality. Most people don't even realize how much is being stolen from them, or they think they somehow can come out on top on the other side.
The reality is we are all fools, it just depends when you realize it.
Wow, it's getting hard to type, and I just realized its 1:25 am. Time to run.
yah was a bday present from the wife, now i'm trying to find a reasonably priced tap handle, which i think i'm gonna go with a goose island handle(i looks like the aflac duck ), and maybe an odouls one to put on it when i'm not there, so other people won't drink from it lol
All cultures are equal. - How much acceptance has this ever really gotten?
Potential work is infinite. - What is replacing this? To accept its demise is to run out of ideas completely. As a manager/supervisor I can't imagine not having an infinite supply of ideas about how to put other people to work productively.
and who are those who are hurt most by the rise in second hand car prices? Lower income people. Is this country not tired of the hypocrisy of going to Church on Sunday but forgetting the main message of the bible- take care of the weak, sick and poor?
If conservatives and liberals demanded that every new government program (spending or tax break) come with the tax increase to pay for it I think we would all get a better government. How long do you think the war in Iraq would have lasted if there was a tax surcharge on J6P to pay for it?
Beware of the S&P 500 P/E ratio. For many companies, "earnings" included stock appreciation, or even alleged earnings on negative amortization loans. I'd like to see the charts with those earnings backed out.
On the other side, investment losses in the stock market pushed the number down until around March 2009. Seeing PE ratios go this high in a rising stock market tells you something. 1. Actual operating earnings are down. 2. Loans are being written down.
"I have very rarely ever seen a person choose to live lower than they have previously. People are all talk for the most part."
.....this valley is literally FULL of people who have decided to bailout & "live lower" - with the conscious thought of giving the government less during and after the change. I am one of them.
BSR, I never had that conscious thought and governmental action wasn't a big factor in my 'modified limited dropout,' but it sure did result in a lower standard of living and I'm fine with that.
Less stress. No heart attack yet. Got to be there with the kids for middle and high school.
Doubtful. More likely people are deluding themselves into thinking they can make the money again. Once they have they offer to move back up, they will.
Back when I sold cars, one of the lowest prospects for a sale was someone looking to move from SUV or full sized car to a compact or even a Corolla. When was the last time you saw someone move from the $500,000 home to the $200,000 home? Sure, there are some that make that choice when they have kids. Others make the choice when they retire, but more often if a retiree is downsizing it is because they really can't afford to maintain the house or pay the taxes and still keep their head above ground.
Congrats, SF........Much to be said for that (1st wife and Mom to kids). And, "downsizing" definitely is better for your mental-health. Nowadays, I don't think it's possible to hide anything of real value long-term, and, it doesn't make much sense. I specifically had some problems with the LAST bailout (S&L) and knew the deceit and dishonesty would occur again - and guess what?
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 6:25
I think I am on the bleeding edge of the new reality.
Most people don't even realize how much is being stolen from them, or they think they somehow can come out on top on the other side.
The reality is we are all fools, it just depends when you realize it.
One of the cleverest tricks of the one-percenters was convincing the ten-percenters that "we are just like you". Intergenerational wealth and high-income jobs are miles apart in terms of 'rich'. Do you think the 1% will hesitate for even a moment to throw the working rich under the bus?
BSR, I think mental health is underappreciated, especially by those caught up in the old fashioned rat race. They don't realize that running faster just makes the wheel spin faster.
I admire what you've done with a small ranch. I can't pretend I ever got 'back to the land' during my own changes, but now I can see what a good thing that would have been to do.
They had a choice of becoming self employed or being employed. Self employed does not get unemployment benefits if he fails to earn an income. There is always a choice good or bad.
........last night I had to attend a family wedding (250-300 people). The first "party" of any size I've attended in YEARS. The common joke was if the Mrs. could convince me to put on a pair of shoes and long-legged trousers for the event. I kept wondering why everyone was looking at my feet, until told. Anyway, I started doing a head count while asking what everyone was now doing (since this was the first time many had seen me "dry") and Virtually A THIRD of them are out of or under-employed. It was an eye-opener. EVERYONE seems to be "unemployment check" addicted.
Self employed does not get unemployment benefits if he fails to earn an income.
If you are corporation, you do. You pay into the state and fed UI funds based on the salary the corp pays you. Then, if you lay yourself off, you can collect unemployment. No joke.
Interesting, Back when I was in business my accountant said no. Maybe on a state by state basis but any way that would be a vote of no confidence against yourself and less profit in the long haul costing you far more.
EVERYONE seems to be "unemployment check" addicted.
CR has linked some articles that tend to show people collect almost the full number of weeks of UI available, before a significant percentage of them get new jobs.
This, of course, is the downside to extended UI benefits (even though I supported the concept).
It was true in the state of Texas, other states I'm not sure, but it makes sense. The corp is a separate legal entity. Of course, collecting UI would increase the UI rate of the business. I remember having this discussion with the state UI office and I went over the scenarios with them. Yes, I had to pay, and yes, I could collect if I laid myself off. Fun!
edit: I think all self-employed people should have some kind of legal entity. At least an S-corp or LLC. Not only do you get some liability protection, you can take advantage of the other half of tax code related to business expenses. I've had 2 S-corps and currently run my side biz as an LLC. More paper work at tax time, but a lot less in taxes.
Japan: National broadcaster NHK, using projections based on exit polls of roughly 400,000 voters, said the DPJ was set to win 300 seats and the Liberal Democrats only about 100. Official results were expected early Monday.
(Liberal Democrats were the ones with 54 years of rule only interrupted once briefly by a coalition government that collapsed in the 90s)
`
Add in the tax treaties trying to finish before the G20 in Pittsburgh, and we've got an interesting omelet of international affairs
Japan elections threw out 54 year ruling party. Guess they won't be America's "bitch in tow" anymore. More trouble for USD if they insist on buying our debt in their own currency.
Recent strength in banking stocks considered positive - this group suffered heavily in panic last fall; only recently has renewed accumulation been evident.
Some bears have been arguing that stocks are still selling at higher price-earnings multiples than at low point of previous depressions; optimists counter that the greater current financial strength of corporations justifies the higher multiple.
Kash -n- Kari seems a quiet way to go.
ahhh no reply and I can digress into a meta-observation....
Neel Kashkari is the fall guy....I think Setser might have a shot as this job.
I'll be back....l8tr
*edit link has major problems.
It is not called The Redneck Riviera for nothing. They still have a KKK chapter two towns over.
No, it was wow to me because it was just a pointless venture of futility (Note: Maybe all human endeavors are). If they had marched on town hall or picketed a house, then maybe I would have been impressed with this stuff. However, what they did is no different that some Middle Easterner burning a dummy of the U.S. president.
"Did you bring the marshmallows?"
Who cares about stinkin houses when there's No Good Economic Choices for U.S.
Mauldin: No Good Economic Choices for U.S.
We will kick the can down the road, hoping for a miracle ?
Probably
I see little room for us to avoid a double-dip recession.
Yup !
because it was just a pointless venture of futility
Not much different than "audit the Fed".
Knoxville? They picked Knoxville?
Two big boom cities in FL and then Knoxville for comparison? Why not Frogjump or Skullbone, TN?
Umm, the ones I know about are people who intend to live there or
are helping their kids. Not to say there aren't "investors" out there too.
Any figures on Miami?
Not much different than "audit the Fed".
At least it is some kind of political process or progress. Why have a faux town hall meeting? Why not just have a bonfire with booze and burgers? Might have made 'em feel better.
Oh, hello Mr. Soul, I dropped by to pick up a reason
For the thought that I caught that my head is the event of the season
Why in crowds just a trace of my face could seem so pleasin'
I'll cop out to the change, but a stranger is putting the tease on.
I was down on a frown when the messenger brought me a letter
I was raised by the praise of a fan who said I upset her
Any girl in the world could have easily known me better
She said, You're strange, but don't change, and I let her.
In a while will the smile on my face turn to plaster?
Stick around while the clown who is sick does the trick of disaster
For the race of my head and my face is moving much faster
Is it strange I should change? I don't know, why don't you ask her?
Did the tv station pick the people because of their rednecky looks?
Or, does everyone over there look like that?
Does Knoxville have a "Clem the Realtor"?
yagij, made all the more puzzling by the fact they actively bragged on talk radio about how poorly they had behaved towards Boyd in June and they hoped he was so afraid he wouldn't show up for the town hall. They achieved that goal and then became irate because he didn't show up. Seriously, they just want something to scream about. They dont' want to be informed. I have tried that, they look at me like I"m crazy or their eyes glaze over when I bring up CDSs or CDOs or Goldman Sachs. I schooled Burnie Thompson the local radio wingnut over CDSs one day on the radio to the point he had no choice but to say "Obviously you know more about economics than I do and this topic is too hard for my audience to understand". Again, I shit you not. Yet this guy is their hero, he called for the "town hall" and by gosh they showed up.
That's pretty much what you get around here liz...
yagij,
rofl! you beat me to it, brother. KNOXVILLE? hahaha!
Cash buyers also could be boomers who bought a long time ago and can still sell the home and retire paying cash.
ps - i have family in kville, so i can get away with it.
/sigh
i have family in kville. what DOES that say?
RockyR, could be worse, you could have family in Panama City.
I enjoyed the Knoxville comparison too ... but it does show the less bubbly areas are not as active for investors.
best to all
Kirstina,
i have missed you.
Seriously, they just want something to scream about.
That's people.
As I said several months ago, this forum is skewed.
Many people really don't understand what's happening, just that it's causing pain and annoyance.
I'd say that most people are relatively unaware even of pain.
rofl! you beat me to it, brother. KNOXVILLE? hahaha!
At least they didn't pick Chattanooga?
From a state perspective, picking Nashville or Memphis might have made sense if they wanted to pick a TN city that had some real estate speculation--although I know of a few CRE projects in Knoxville that are probably getting left high-and-dry if things stay the way they are.
While Memphis is the red-haired stepchild of MS, it is a large service-oriented city and has enough wealth to generate a minor RRE & CRE bubble. Nashville would have been a no-brainer.
But seriously, seeing that the Atlanta folks picked Knoxville just seems like they threw a dart at a map IMO.
Rocky R I miss you guys too. I should be around more often now. Hubby is back to school and working OT so I have more time on my hands.
The WSJ used to have a darts vs people who are supposed to know
about stocks. The darts won quite a lot. They still do that?
Nitey-nite.
Nite liz
I've been pricing used cars since Aug 5th when I got rear-ended.
I can't prove it but it sure seems like C4C program boosted used car prices by a $1k or so.
"it does show the less bubbly areas are not as active for investors."
check out the cap rates in bubbly areas, in nyc even with FC they are still not tempting enough
"this topic is too hard for my audience to understand"
Aye, there's the rub. How do you inform simply without detracting from the scope of the disaster. We found the weapons of mass destruction on a GS balance sheet?
Meaningless.
I'd say more than half my accepted "cash offers" were either fronted investor debt or immediately replaced by mortgage instruments after closing.
Liz - spooky. While trawling around some parts of kaboomberger mostly characterized by tumbleweeds and dust devils, I came across a Friday afternoon news dump for price/estimates. Was just about to post it under a different segue, but this is perfect:
S&P 500 Stocks With Biggest Gap Between Market Price, Estimate - Bloomberg.com
Quite a number of financials and RE outfits in the overvalued list. Wasn't expecting that, not with the second half recovery and all...
C
"I'd say more than half my accepted "cash offers" were either fronted investor debt or immediately replaced by mortgage instruments after closing"
This was my question. There's a lot less cash in the system than people think. In other words, we are still massively leveraged. There's lots more to go.
Hey Otis! You gots rigamotis? Chime in, dude.
wow, hope this one gets implemented, that way patientrenter will be happy (and me too!!!)
Ideas to cut the federal deficit could cost homeowners billions -- latimes.com
The attractiveness of the credit concept is both fiscal and social. Besides raising $13 billion in 2013, the CBO estimates that moving to a credit approach would increase revenue by nearly $390 billion from 2013 to 2019. The credit plan would also please critics who say the current tax system shortchanges lower- and moderate-income homeowners and encourages Americans to buy massive houses loaded down with monster-size mortgages.
Other items on the CBO's revenue-raising target list:
* Get rid of all write-offs for state and local taxes, including property taxes. That would pump $343 billion into federal coffers from 2010 to 2014, and $862 billion by 2019.
That first point made my eyes bulge out of my head. Talk about driving people off of the grid or making them tempt the IRS. People may opt for UE just to avoid the taxes.
The second point made no sense either, but it didn't make my spine tingle.
The third point was WTFOMGBBQ!
Central. 48 Billion over 10 years when we blow that much money in a month or two in Iraqistan?
Prices are good for sellers of used cars right now. My son's Honda Civic got totalled out in an accident in February, so we were reseaching all sort of deals, including selling my wife's 2005 Jeep Wrangler (I hate the damn thing - I was for getting rid of it) and buying a new Honda and just having my wife and son share the car for a few months until my son left for college. We decided to give the Jeep to my son and buy my wife a new car, figuring we would just sell the Jeep when my son went to college. I just started researching prices this week and the Jeep is worth more now than it was in February. Between no new car sales and no trade ins, and then new car sales but no sellable clunker, they are in short supply.
"People may opt for UE just to avoid the taxes."
sure, heard the young are doing it to avoid FICA
,People may opt for UE just to avoid the taxes
The cool kids call it Going Gault.
"* Clamp a 15% cap on the value of all itemized deductions -- not just mortgage interest and property taxes but also charitable contributions, medical expenses and casualty losses. The revenue windfall: $1.3 trillion over 10 years."
I don't think the non-profits will like that very much. Not that that is a bad thing. The Scientology folks might be a bit put out as well.
What is the deal with going back to the 45/55% on cap gains? What is the downside to 0/100%?
heard the young are doing it to avoid FICA
Well, the young aren't going to get SS or Medicare--or think that they won't. Then they have to pay the Feds, the State, the County, and the City and none of the taxes are reduced further up the food chain? It made my heart jump just thinking about such an idea.
No taxation without representation doesn't really cover this situation, but it sure does feel that way. We may end up with a new rallying cry if that kind of batsh** policy sees the light of day.
Terry - thanks. That's what I thought, it seems like used car prices are up in just the past three weeks since I started pricing a few specific models. So I'm thinking the spike has probably peaked and should fall off gradually. I'll probably postpone a purchase for 2-3 more months.
These tax increases won't go into effect until we are in a fiscal crisis - and I mean a real one. That probably won't happen for another 5-10 years.
Thanks for pointing out the article, renterinNYC.
remember that local govs were rising property taxes while dropping the line "don't worry, it's tax deductible". not bad to keep local spending on check.
sure, does it pay to work otherwise? ie: when gov spending goes out of control and there's no will to cut spending?
batsh** policy
Policy? The policy is going on now. Stupendous deficit spending and declining tax revenues means tax increases. There's no 'policy' about it.
For the previous thread (was off watching Inglorius Basterds @ Muvico),
I know of one asset management staffing up to rent REOs back to the current occupants in various states. The name of the company is called TenantAccess.
I also know of many houses which had NOD filed much longer than 3 months ago and are sitting there, not foreclosed and NTS not filed. I know one of them got a loan mod even though the property is NOO. There is some serious can kickage going on right now.
These ideas to cut the deficit would not work nearly as well as projected -- if they worked at all.
It would crush home prices and create a massive new wave of walk aways.
Remove the incentives and people adjust, they would not sit idly by and pay more taxes.
Don't think that will help - people are holding on to their cars longer and there is just not a good supply of trade-ins or cars coming off lease.
"The cool kids call it Going Gault."
Great... Another Randian idea that sounds good in theory...
"It would crush home prices"
Good point, I like it better already. But why tax, when you can inflate?
the LA Times article led me to this, a tragedy in RD's neighborhood:
Olympic shot-putter David Laut shot dead at his Oxnard home - Los Angeles Times
RIP David Laut
agree, prices do have to come down (specially on the coasts). what it's being done now is not trying to move prices up but showing the average joe that everything that's possible is being done... it's a political gimmick. prices will adjusts to wages, the only question is when.
Stupendous deficit spending and declining tax revenues means tax increases. There's no 'policy' about it.
No, anyone who has read about countries/empire with fiscal problems knows that tax increases did not help increase government coffers in these kinds of situations. It just drives more money out of the "system" and people start cutting down on their official productivity.
If our politicians start acting that way, it will be interesting time to live. Granted, I'm using the loosest definition of "live" and "interesting". Not sure if there has ever been a French-revolution style to a declining democracy. I know that Rome's Triumvirate killed people and stole their wealth, but again, we aren't talking about the plebs here.
there is just not a good supply of trade-ins or cars coming off lease.
My thinking is that another crash / fall-off in economic activity will reduce current sales and cause another glut.
Probably take longer than 2-3 months, though, although I'm thinking that people might react faster this time.
If you are interested in a used 2005 Jeep Wrangler . . . . .
" people adjust, they would not sit idly by and pay more taxes.."
Baby boomers will require a lot of money when they are retired, for regular needs and wants, and lots of medical care. That money will be taken from someone, somehow. Actual collected taxes will rise, a lot, whether then working people like it or not.
"My thinking is that another crash / fall-off in economic activity will reduce current sales and cause another glut."
As all the C4C's come rolling back to the lot behind Repo Man? And Ol' Bessie at the junkyard to be replaced by old Bussie?
It just drives more money out of the "system" and people start cutting down on their official productivity.
+1
come on! it's people that can sustain a lifestyle without working the ones that will cut on productivity or those with flexible working patterns. it doesn't mean the end of civilization, at the most it doesn't give incentives for the rat race to go on.
remember that the maximum marginal rate in usa was 90% in the 50s and part of 60s? who worked back then more than absolutely needed once they hit that tax rate?
Thanks but Jeep has one of the poorest reliability ratings in Consumer Reports.
I test-drove a Mazda3, Honda Fit, Scion tC, looked at the new Echo (Yaris), a couple of others.
Pretty partial to the Mazda so far.
"Baby boomers will require a lot of money when they are retired, for regular needs and wants"
believe a lot of those needs will be redefined as wants, there's no way to pay for all those liabilities imho
"remember that the maximum marginal rate in usa was 90% in the 50s and part of 60s?"
Yeah but Regan traded away a rat's nest of old deductions away along with those changes. No one in the top bracket ended up paying anywhere near top rates, and probably not near what the plebes were. "Only little people pay taxes."
Temperatures seem to be rising. Over at Jesse's his intro to TrimTabs reporting record insider selling refers to financials being Obama's "New Orleans".
Meanwhile Denninger and Jim Willie have the gloves off, no change there, except this time it's vs each other...
Block caps at dawn, gentlemen. To your keyboards!
It's gonna be a great Fall.
C
See top rates in "Partial History of U.S. Federal Marginal Income Tax Rates Since 1913" in Income tax in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
Top rates have been higher than they are now for most of modern US history. And the boomers will not be denied their retirements and medical care.
My wife grew up in the Colorado front range and we used to live out there and she wanted to be a Colorado Mountain girl and own a Wrangler . . thing rides like a damn truck, which it is. She didn't even like driving it. My three teens at the time, however, loved it!
"a lot of those needs will be redefined as wants,"
there will be some give, but boomers will out-vote everyone for a long while yet.
"except this time it's vs each other..."
Linky?
boomers will out-vote everyone for a long while yet.
they can't outvote the Chinese.
"And the boomers will not be denied their retirements and medical care. "
of course not. there's the reality of limited resources and a demographic tsunami. so "needs" like independent living will have to be reconsider by many. they are just too expensive given the resources that most of them were able to save.
believe a lot of those needs will be redefined as wants, there's no way to pay for all those liabilities imho
I have to agree with that sentiment. Getting a hip replaced may be an option, but getting the gov't to replace your hip with a high-quality athletic-grade replace will not be an option. I've been reading about this situation playing out in places like Germany, and it is getting uglier between the country's productive base and the retirement base. As their economy stagnates and recedes, the pressures of the Wants and Needs get worse.
Chinese don't get a vote
You can usually safely assume that 90% of the people complaining about federal income taxes pay under $10,000 per year in federal income taxes. Half the folks pay no income tax or get money back. It's pretty hard to have a marginal tax revolution; the only way taxes are collected is if the person is making more money. This is a significant reason why the states have seen their tax collections plummet. It's also the reason you hear people complain most about property taxes.
"Chinese don't get a vote "
I think they have a couple trillion of them...
remember that the maximum marginal rate in usa was 90% in the 50s and part of 60s?
Nobody paid that rate, because everything was deductible.
i wouldn't be surprised if they manage to increase their entitlements again in an unfunded bases (like prescription drug benefit) even as the demographic tsunami is hitting. these guys ... most are in denial about what's feasible and what's not. financially wise the young have 1/3 of the disposable income they used to have when they were that age, so they believe that by not buying a video game they will be able to sustain 1/2 a retiree more per worker... the numbers are just not there.
Federal income tax rates are relatively low now for just about all income levels, compared to where they have averaged in the U.S. over the last 60 years.
Total taxes including state/local income, sales tax, property and misc., are relatively high.
The tax breaks for homeowners, including deductible interest, property taxes, and exemption of capital gains on sale, have rarely been more favorable.
To put it another way, I have very rarely ever seen a person choose to live lower than they have previously. People are all talk for the most part.
So clearly late boomers' retirements will be cut back, as will their medical care etc, but the amount of resources necessary to support a large number of old boomers will force much higher taxes, and the biggest tax enforcement gaps will have to be closed.
Rich - I have three words for you - Alternative Minimum Tax.
they can't outvote the Chinese.
Agreed with the above.
Also, you are assuming that our democracy will continue to function smoothly in a vote and accept process. Crime rates in many metro areas are increasing, and the elderly are finding themselves as a large part of that increase. As the young are increasingly pressed upon to provide for their elders, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of predators v. prey action between the elders who have stuff and the young guys who have nothing to lose.
The average elder will not win those battles.
"Half the folks pay no income tax or get money back."
Income tax is only a tiny portion of revenue... Payroll taxes are a big bite for those in the bottom half, and the Boomer elected gov has spent what should have been saved over the years, and then some.
Crime rates in many metro areas are increasing
Hmm, not sure about this one.
1 bn Chinese people isn't one billion US votes
Other rich countries often have much higher taxes than the US (e.g France). Is their civlization falling apart? Not last time I checked (and I have family living there). Not saying it's good, just that the boomer pressure will lift US taxes a lot.
Percentage Change in Homicides and Robberies in 2008
Over Same Period in 2007
Homicide Robbery Date
New York +8.2% +4.4% 1/1 - 6/29
Chicago -1.1% +16.3% 1/1 - 3/31
Los Angeles +4.3% -8.2% 1/1 - 6/28
The Trends Monitor
demographically (you see this in germany but also in japan, korea, italy, ...) the higher burden that the elderly put on the young delays household formation and lowers the fertility rate. making the issue a bigger one. you can call it a vicious demographic cycle.
now, if the baby boomers reap the upside of the demographic wave, why not asking htem to share the downside? i don't see why they should be shield from the decline in the standards of living. i see how their voting power makes them a priority in japan, for example. but it ends up back firing as the young stays to live with them (cannot afford housing), don't form a household, are temp workers even in their 40s with low wages so cannot contribute as expected towards social security either.
Hmm, not sure about this one.
Places like Detroit or Memphis have "official" reports showing the crime rates dropping, but there is some debate because there is an argument to be made that the police are increasingly not responding to crime in various areas due to issues like lack of manpower.
Besides if like many people here, you doubt the gov't UE or budget numbers, are you going to place more faith in a P.D.'s crime stats?
Edit: See above Crime Trends link.
Boomers can't vote people to work, they'll have to pay them. The increased taxes may be paid directly by younger workers, but they'll be paid indirectly by the boomers.
"they'll be paid indirectly by the boomers. "
how? why cannot those jobs be outsourced or hire illegals for service jobs that cannot be outsource?
Blackhalo :
C
People, generally again, don't have a problem with high taxes as much as they have a problem with poor spending. The perception is that our taxes primarily benefit the oligarchy through in part advantages given to mulitnational corporations and the elderly.
Our city has stopped responding to car and home break-ins - you have to phone in a report, but then never hear a word - I think the drop in property crimes is related to non-reporting (or the police not adding the phone reports to the totals)
"The increased taxes may be paid directly by younger workers, but they'll be paid indirectly by the boomers."
If there are 50 million boomers retired, not earning anything, and most with practically nothing saved, how can you tax them? They will vote themselves health care, food, housing, golf....
"People, generally again, don't have a problem with high taxes as much as they have a problem with poor spending."
i agree, as long as they see their taxes going towards services that they need and appreciate it's ok imho. issue with the young, if entitlements and unfunded pensions do crowd out spending in services that they care about, then why would they be ok about paying for htem?
"Other rich countries often have much higher taxes than the US (e.g France). Is their civlization falling apart? Not last time I checked (and I have family living there). Not saying it's good, just that the boomer pressure will lift US taxes a lot."
Yeah but they did not get there overnight, and they have some pretty sweet benefits for the non-retired. Like free collage ed/health care/and or months of vacation. Those are now luxuries Grandpa Boomer may not be able to afford to entice Junior to provide care. Cause Grandpa Boomer spent his retirement during the boom years.
The only way we get out of here is by soft or hard default.
"They will vote themselves health care, food, housing, golf.... "
i'd go long on that, even if a default is declared... they will want new services given that they already figured their votes are enough.
Social Security can be extended for decades by making incremental changes that won't stir huge backlash.
For example, 100% of benefits could become taxable for everybody. The taxes IRS collects on benefits go straight back into the OASDI trust fund, so it would add billions (on paper of course) to Social Security funding.
The apparatus is already in place, due to the 2003 law that income-related Medicare premiums, to income-relate Social Security benefits. The apparatus involves data-sharing between IRS and SSA. Nobody asks you how much money you made (two years ago) before they jack up your Medicare premiums. If you reported 2007 MAGI above $85k single or $170k joint, IRS told SSA and they automatically withheld the higher Medicare premium from your 2009 Social Security. They could do the same with Social Security benefits of the highest income people pretty fast.
They also could increase the penalty for starting benefits before full retirement age of 66.
All this probably will be done in the next 5-10 years.
Medicare is a different story. It can't be rehabilitated by incremental changes over time.
"they have some pretty sweet benefits for the non-retired."
yep, that's were i see a compromise. if the young are offered 1 and 1/2 month of vacations, 1 year paid maternity leave, free university, universal health coverage and subsidized child care so that the mother can work... then... i think the young will be ok with high taxes.
number41*2+©
#41
"Temperatures seem to be rising."
Yes, Jesse's frustration is showing and I think Biderman has got it about right.
fail. (j/k)
default is a side show (important, but side).
When you have a large group of people, let's say 50 million, who are old and not working, they will need and want a lot of actual physical things. How do you get those things in their hands? Well, taxes on working folks, that are then funneled into spending programs for the retired is a simple and time-honored way. Whether you default or not, you still have to keep supplying them with the goods and services that go with their voting power.
People are living longer and collecting benefits for more years - they system cannot take it.
Once again, athread with a lot of confusion about "money" and real goods & services that money represents.
...a lot of confusion about "money" and real goods & services that money represents.
Like marriage?
I'm not sure the young will be paid off so easily. Of course, I'm running under the assumption of long term US decline compared to the rest of the world. I think the Golden Age is done.
"If you reported 2007 MAGI above $85k single or $170k joint, IRS told SSA and they automatically withheld the higher Medicare premium"
medicare premiums are nominal (pay less than 1/4th of the cost). and sorry, but those income limits are too high imho, how many people does it affect? 10% of the retirees?
There's a ton of slack in the system. A large # of jobs are paperwork / makework jobs whose primary purpose is to redistribute goods & services. In theory, they can be converted into more productive jobs. Most of The Game is in financial paper, taxes and real estate values. Subtract those out and what people actually need to live and work are relatively small.
"I think the Golden Age is done."
I thought it ended in 1976, but your mileage may vary.
"let's say 50 million, who are old and not working, they will need and want a lot of actual physical things. How do you get those things in their hands?"
just a few touches, i think they are key:
"let's say 50 million, who are old and not working, they will need and want a lot of actual physical things. How do you determine whether the things that they want are really needed and get those things in their hands?"
Audit the Fed. Two years ago those three words were rarely heard and never from an average American. The campaign against the Fed is probably the most powerful instrument for change in our country. Following the money always leads to truth in the why of events and who decided. Many roads lead back to the Fed.
Attacking the Fed and making it a target of populist rage is one of the many tinderboxes waiting to be lit going forward. Cui bono is yet to be seen.
Vitriol spewing at Prof Krugman and the death of Sen Kennedy is bordering on the irrational. Always surprising to see where emotion is expressed.
wage per hour peaked in 1975, so if that's the measure it ended in 1976
Like marriage?
No kidding.
"I'm not sure the young will be paid off so easily."
What if the young DO decide to go Galt and do like the Boomers did, and start communes and co-ops and tune out? Radical immigration policy? What do the boomers give to get Juan to wipe their ass? Citizenship?
Always surprising to see where emotion is expressed.
Why? People can rarely vent/rage on the real sources of their frustrations for many reasons. Vent at Sen. Kennedy's death or their boss/spouse/representative/child for whatever is the real source?
yes, clearly there will be pressure down on the boomers' expectations, and pressures against higher taxes on future workers, and so on. But I doubt that the boomers will tolerate a 50% reduction in their living standards in retirement.
"What if the young DO decide to go Galt"
if might only bring the day of reckoning closer to us, might not be a bad thing. who knows the size of the cash economy in usa? i'd go long in bartering.
"Vitriol spewing at Prof Krugman"
I can't shake the feeling he sold the rational actors out.
One hates to answer fictionalized analogizes. There is a reason they make good fiction. The communes of the 60s were the latest incarnations of utopian movements going back to the 1700s in this country.
"wage per hour peaked in 1975, so if that's the measure it ended in 1976"
That's part of it.
"What do the boomers give to get Juan to wipe their ass?"
my take is that's better for the boomers to believe that a dirty ass is cool, being dependent on juan might be not so cool.
"i'd go long in bartering"
Has Craig's list IPO'd yet? That is surely the shape of things to come.
Damn, it's nice to know someone's talking sense! I
the CBO!
Tops on the CBO's hit list for housing: Slash deductions for homeowner mortgage interest from the present $1.1-million limit to $500,000, phased in with $100,000 annual reductions starting in 2013.
Sweet!
The CBO offered up a second option if Congress wants to raise a lot more money: Replace the mortgage interest deduction with a flat 15% tax credit for everybody with mortgage amounts below the declining limits in the first option. Rather than taking write-offs tied to income tax bracket, every homeowner would get a credit worth 15% of mortgage interest paid.
I've argued here before that the current Mortgage Interest Deduction fucks everyone in Flyover Country. I'd love to see this!
Even if their numbers are a
, these reforms are just the right thing to do!
What if the young DO decide to go Galt and do like the Boomers did, and start communes and co-ops and tune out?
Now that would be the greatest irony of ironies! It would totally renew my faith in our system if that happened.
New burner hippies refusing to serve the aged burner hippies. That would be Karma in its most wicked form.
"Vitriol spewing at Prof Krugman"
I don't know his purely academic work. All I see are his endless purely political carping. He appears as committed to redistributive economic policies as Laffer is to low tax rates. Both twist everything to support their real agendas. Therefore, I cannot rely on either for anything.
But I doubt that the boomers will tolerate a 50% reduction in their living standards in retirement.
I doubt it will be that much, assuming the current system holds together.
What, really, do you need people for?
To grow food? A huge leverage in that now.
To make stuff? A huge leverage is possible if the U.S. really wanted to do it.
To build houses?
A good portion of boomers will be working part-time for years past retirement, too.
Current money system != real goods & services or what's fairly easy to improve.
"The communes of the 60s were the latest incarnations of utopian movements going back to the 1700s in this country. "
How much do the Amish or Mennonites pay in taxes?
"That would be Karma in its most wicked form. "
boy, from demographics and economics to religion. how did that happen?
boy, from demographics and economics to religion. how did that happen?
We are talking about humans, right? How can you talk about one aspect without the others?
Odysseus, I agree with you. But don't get too excited, because most of the more substantive proposals are DOA.
You pick the Amish, I'll go with Amana colony. The descendents of the Amana colony are all mainstreamed and paying taxes like everyone else. The norm is for utopian experiments to fail (not last 2 generations.)
"How much do the Amish or Mennonites pay in taxes? "
they do income taxes. they were allowed to drop out of the social security ponzi thanks to a couple of memorable episodes. they should be made into a movie. i'll visit them next week by the way. going mennonite is another way of dropping out of (part of) the "bill it to the next generation" scheme.
"We are talking about humans, right? How can you talk about one aspect without the others? Tongue "
it was a joke! like the tongue though
The idea is that when you turn 65, you're suppose to get something back for all that money you and your employer have paid into Medicare through FICA. Remember, there's no cap on the Medicare portion of FICA, so high-income people pay in a lot.
What you get is all of Part A and a subsidy of up to 75% of the actual cost of Part B.
They say the highest 6% of the income spectrum now pays higher Medicare Part B premiums. The law is set up to automatically increase premiums of the highest income people (above current amounts) if Medicare funding falls below a red line.
Whether you default or not, you still have to keep supplying them with the goods and services that go with their voting power.
So, if the Saudi's suddenly decided to not sell us any more oil, are we going to vote them into submission?
"What, really, do you need people for?"
Health care is somewhat labor intensive. And I am not talking doctors, although if Boomer was smart he'd be investing heavily in medical schools right now. But, Nurses administrators, engineers, technicians, orderlies... Until we get to a Puppeteer autodoc....
Seems the discussion assumes that boomers will be retiring at 65 or so. Doubt it. I suspect the boomers will be working way longer than previous generations. That sorta changes the dynamics a bit methinks.
"A good portion of boomers will be working part-time for years past retirement, too"
And this is one more leg of the X-legged stool for the boomers' retirement. Bascially, we'll have:
"are we going to vote them into submission?"
Surely our presence in Iraq was not just for WMDs...
"Health care is somewhat labor intensive"
japan will come up with little robots. from taking the blood pressure, temperature, daily pills, talking to doctors to company. those machines look somewhat scary but are amazing.
Chinese and Saudi votes in US = 0
Health care is somewhat labor intensive
artificial monopoly.
a lot of what doctors do (diagnosis) is being coded into software.
today's health care could be substantially restructured, pushing a lot of work down to "lower skill levels".
would be great if a cleaner (kind of roomba) is included. i can only imaging the crowd shouting "i NEED a roomba!"
So, if the Saudi's suddenly decided to not sell us any more oil, are we going to vote them into submission?
+1 LoL
I took it as a tongue-in-cheek snark because they cannot currently exist without U.S. support of their only export product--maybe someday--but I must admit that the concept of millions of elderly Americans voting foreign sovereigns into submission--especially over a resource as important as oil--to be a great mental image.
Protect the king! The retirees are coming baring false teeth and walkers!
"That sorta changes the dynamics a bit methinks."
It takes an awful lot of pills to deal with obesity and diabetes and other age related ailments to keep working... Those sweetheart deals that PharmCo cut with W and O' may not hold up.
I had sex with a roomba once but it sucked
I had sex with a roomba once but it sucked
Sex abhors a vacuum.
"So, if the Saudi's suddenly decided to not sell us any more oil, are we going to vote them into submission?"
Boomers vote themselves income. Raise income from taxes on younger folks. Younger folks produce goods to sell to Saudis for oil and pay their taxes.
"I suspect the boomers will be working way longer than previous generations. "
read that average was 75 (25-50 years ago, blamed early retirement vogue and public employers giving early retirement schemes)... seemed very high though. anybody know this?
"I had sex with a roomba once but it sucked "
It? For decency sake, give "it" a gender!
US votes in China & Saudi = 0.
It boils down to control of resources, and workers are also a resource. If you want a resource you have to (eventually) have to pay for it, you can't just vote for it.
It's exactly that idea that has brought down prior empires and is bringing down this one.
Retirment is a modern concept. It was nice while it lasted.
More seriously, the boomers should be able to survive on asset depreciation. The house might look like hell when they keel over, but they'll have housing.
65, 67, 70, 72, 75... who knows?
People deteriorate at different rates, so I think instead of the ret age moving up a lot uniformly, most of the increase will be from healthy and well-paid (or desperate) subgroups. And some will just work less and less. So it will become complicated, not like today when you go from working your last full 8-hour day to playing golf and napping all day until you die.
"Retirment is a modern concept. It was nice while it lasted."
You are absolutely correct. It is a chimera and a death sentence.
July 20, 1969
.
edit: the peak, not the end...
"Chinese and Saudi votes in US = 0"
Your math is a tad off... What do rates have to go to to get US Americans to buy this debt? What does double digit interst rates and inflation do to equities? Home prices? Boomer is looking at his house fall to record low levels his 410K is gonnna get whacked some more as the smart money runs for the exit and his cash on hand will go poof. What can he do with those votes to get Junior to grab a gun and protect his oil interests?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Foreign_Holders_of_United_States_Treasury_Securities-percent_share.gif
"you can't just vote for it"
Reconcile with the govt share of GDP of most modern developed countries that are democracis
"workers are also a resource. If you want a resource you have to (eventually) have to pay for it, you can't just vote for it."
true, but imagine the situation of somebody in his 20s or early 30s. there's the boomers issue, ... wouldn't be optimal for these youngsters to (instead of delaying) anticipating retirement while their return on labor is low and their joints don't hurt. go surfing ... (this to be done only by those that can put food on the table).
only once most of the boomers are gone, given improved demographics return on labor should be better. hence the surfers enter the labor force. true, they will be... lets say 50s-60s but their spirit sure will be young, ready to work till they drop (as they would had have to anyway, so no loss there).
"What can he do with those votes to get Junior to grab a gun and protect his oil interests?"
See my comment at 11:48pm
"What does double digit interst rates and inflation do to equities? Home prices? "
See my comment, item 3, at 11:44pm
renterinNYC,
Mauldin makes the point that given boomers outnumbering workers they'll have to compete for their services and thus surrender a greater share of their accumulated assets. Sure, that can be offset by opening the floodgates of immigration, but I think you'd see a civil war if that happened. Remember, the revolution was fought over "taxation without representation", and the workers will feel totally unrepresented.
The idea of basically scavenging (beach bumming, whatever) is dependent upon being able to get subsistence. This requires some combination of public and private property. While the idea of shacking up with 4 guys in a 2 bedroom unit off the beach may be appealing at 25, it isn't appealing at 35 or 45. It particularly isn't appealing once you have a wife and child. At the societal level, you are looking at subsistence farming or some variation. Subsisting is a lot more difficult work than what these slacker idealists think.
Subsisting is a lot more difficult work than what these slacker idealists think.
So you are implying we need a trust fund first?
"the peak, not the end... "
You and I are in the same ballpark and your choice of date seems appropriate.
I wouldn't argue a few years in either direction. It's close enough.
"Mauldin makes the point that given boomer's outnumbering workers they'll have to compete for their services and thus surrender a greater share of their accumulated assets"
So we'll see higher per capita income for workers in their prime, reduced to lower aftertax pay by the taxes to pay for boomers needs/wants.
lol
"So you are implying we need a trust fund first? "
a la douglas?
"While the idea of shacking up with 4 guys in a 2 bedroom unit off the beach may be appealing at 25, it isn't appealing at 35 or 45. It particularly isn't appealing once you have a wife and child."
Go long campgrounds, shanty-towns and double wides...?
Go long campgrounds shanty-towns and double wides...?
Isn't that kinda already happening as people are losing their homes and jobs? Scone I believe has talked about shanty-towns existing out on OR, and I know Sacramento has had its token tent city grow to the point that they wanted to evict the folks.
I'd imagine that these people will get taxed ala patientrenter's methodology too?
"people are losing their homes and jobs"
When the boomers are retired, UE will be very low. Lots of demand for labor.
" taxed ala patientrenter's methodology"
What's my methodology?
"I'd imagine that these people will get taxed ala patientrenter's methodology too? "
Damn hippies! History echoes. Boomers are nearing the completion of the transformation to that of which they once opposed. The coup de grace will be when they start an unwinnable war in and attempt to secure their hegemony... Oh, right.
So we'll see higher per capita income for workers in their prime, reduced to lower aftertax pay by the taxes to pay for boomers needs/wants.
Not likely.
The era of America running up the national credit card will soon be over, which means that acquisition of needs will require surrendering of assets, and the boomers hold those assets. Workers making things? There will always be a country out there providing cheaper labor, free of our tax burden.
When the boomers are retired, UE will be very low. Lots of demand for labor.
Huh?
You are making this statement after reading the latest numbers showing that the elderly are working longer, holding more jobs, and occupying more part-time work as a continuing trend, right?
If you are talking mortality rate, I'd agree, but many of the elderly are no where near retiring or being able to retire sans eating dog food.
I'm waiting for the rest of the country to figure out that there is a fairly high floor on the supply side of labor. We witnessed it somewhat when gas prices shot up. People started accepting jobs closer to room. The up shot is that is costs quite a bit for a person to work today. It ain't about coming up with $2/day for bus fare. A family needs two cars in order for each spouse to work. This is going to cause its own problems.
OT:
I'm happy to report that there is no one in the coffee shop tonight even beginning to touch upon what we are discussing here. Youngsters are out on their dates. Oldsters working and gossiping about work. Completely void of any
lol
"It particularly isn't appealing once you have a wife and child. "
true, i'm there (wife). our version (after calculating net wage given very high taxes on nyc, implicit - very expensive full time child care- and explicit) was just to drop out of labor force and see how things go. i do productive stuff (got a bounty from the crash and took family out of stock mkt before it, convinced some not to buy RE near the peak, ...) just not for a wage. it's not that productive actually as they are for the most part mere transfers. not happy about that. someday i'll make something!!!
anyway it paid off big time so far, but who knows what's going to happen. and somehow i still believe there's a big chance for net wages (specially those of 2nd earner in expensive cities) to go even lower. we don't own cars, that's not the issue for us.
"Completely void of any doom."
That must have been depressing.
edit: Perhaps I should I said "depressing to many here."
"You are making this statement after reading the latest numbers showing that the elderly are working long, holding more jobs as a continuing trend, right?"
No. I hadn't heard of those numbers. But it's exactly what I'd expect.
I am thinking further out. What's happening this month is not a reloiable indicator of what will happen over the next 20-30 years. Demographics is the only way to forecast trends that far out. With a lot of older folks per younger person, there will be a lot of need for younger folks' coontribution. Their wages per capita will go up, but taxes will make the net lower, since the taxes are what will be used to give the older folks the money to buy goods and services from the younger folks. Just basic demog/econ.
"Demographics is the only way to forecast trends that far out."
plus labor productivity. our increase in demographics comes from minorities educated for the most part in the worse part of the public school system... consequences might not be the best in that area.
That must have been depressing.
Totally. If I didn't have places like CR to visit, I'd be ready to commit myself to an insane asylum--if we have any of them still open. Growing debt, shrinking revenues, increasing UE, decreasing cure rates. If you just dropped in here with no external knowledge, you would think the world is partying like it was 1999.
or you would call CR an insane asylum
patientrenter,
NYC and about 4 other urban areas are the exception. If you aren't picky about your neighborhood, you can live very cheaply in NYC. This isn't true in the rest of the country.
"If you aren't picky about your neighborhood, you can live very cheaply in NYC."
you mean close to JFK?
What did P/Es get to at the peak of the 2000 equities bubble? Are we getting close yet, for much smaller values of E?
This one does not look right. It looks too much like a chart of just P...
S&P 500 P/E Ratio - Chart
Mmm, better
Chart of the Day - S&P 500 PE Ratio Peaks at Record High - Chart of the Day
"Growing debt, shrinking revenues, increasing UE, decreasing cure rates."
All that matters to you is your own situation. Is you debt growing? Are you facing UE? Are you being foreclosed on? We don't bear the weight of the world.
or you would call CR an insane asylum
Nah. One sign of sanity is questioning your sanity.
Beyond my competence. Comparatively I was thinking Chicago and less-so Milwaukee. Both have fine ghettos with $150/month rooms for rent.
"you mean close to JFK?"
No, thanks, I want to live a few more years.
well, another 2 options are the projects (mostly uptown manhattan and bronx) and squatters (with it's own non profit, "Picture The Homeless" that aims at redistributing empty unused space)
"you can live very cheaply in NYC"
I cannot. I used to live in NYC, a long time ago. I vowed never to return to the East coast unless my income went up by 100 x .
"Chicago and less-so Milwaukee. Both have fine ghettos with $150/month rooms for rent. "
nyc, 5 years ago you couldn't get anything (including illegal basements) for less than $500, it only got worse. rents are going lower but mostly on prime rents, vacancies up across the board though.
After reading some of the comments here, I'm curious to know how many people have really ever been in charge--or ever taken charge--of their own destiny.
"I cannot. I used to live in NYC, a long time ago. I vowed never to return to the East coast unless my income went up by 100 x . "
where do you live now?
East coast. (I know, compound income growth over decades of working)....
"give it a gender"
sometimes a hose is just a hose
all this weirdness of trying to figure costs and hours, etc , is one reason I think a standardized 32 or (less likely 36) hour workweek will happen. It's just all too complex and hard to price and predict for J6P
When rents drop these "cash flow" investors are going to get kicked to the curb. My neighborhood is littered with "For Rent" signs on houses that have been recently foreclosed and purchased. A rental without a tenant is just a piece of land that your throw money into. How low can rents go? We're going to find out here in the next year.
renterinNYC, I see your comment about younger folks being better off just waiting out the boomers before they apply themselves seriously to working. It's an interesting idea, and I haven't thought it through yet, but I look forward to doing so.
G'night all!
The boomers who stay in the workforce past former retirement age will mostly seek income supplementation, not income replacement. They'll work part time and probably work cheap. That suggests wage suppression from boomer competition. Just guessing.
mp, define destiny
I burned my old life to the ground, joined a sex club and my fear of death is fairly low now.
No desire to start my own business though.
Wish corporations ran right but I'm inclined to a city or state job ow
Apple opened a store in our town, and had to go over for a car charger for wifes I phone. Wow, was I under dressed, nor did I have an appointment. Maybe 100 people in there, employees gliding around like they were on skates. Someone finally helped me. ( too under dressed I suppose ) , no receipt, will e mail it to me. What recession?
Mauldins comments were as dark as I've ever seen him.
"UE will be very low"
agree but real work will be less
Mortgage interest deduction going to be curtailed?
Ideas to cut the federal deficit could cost homeowners billions -- latimes.com
mp
I agree with you on when the gold age ended, somewhere in the late 70s... didn't Carter say the American people had a malaise of the
spirit... at least for the town I grew up in Indiana everything has gobe downhill since - example, a year go they closed the wire manufacturing
plant (Essex Wire) which employed about 120. the operation was moved to Mexico. now, Essex is willing to sell the land and building except to
a potential competitor or give the factory to the town as a gift. ...
what light manufacturing there was there has pretty much left leaving us with 3 major employers: the county hospital, the junior college and agriculture...
with the right machinery one farmer alone can do alot...
now the town is about 39% on some kind of gov. aid...
....
yes, I am quite aware that Nikita was complaining about those missiles pointed at his dachau on the Black Sea for some years, the amazing thing is the
promise they made with Bobby was that the missile exchange was not a quid pro quo which it was... Jack came out of that moment of reckless behavior
looking like the 'Man' thanks to the east coast media... 'we were eyeball to eyeball with the Russians and they were the first to blink', I think Rusk said that.
the Jeep is worth more now than it was in February
Prices on Jeeps always have had a seasonality to them, highest in late Spring/early Summer, lowest in the dead of winter.
Mauldin likes to tell himself he warned it was coming waaaaay back when. Well, I been reading him for a long time, and he's the world's most arrogant analyst.
If he warned, and I'm not saying he didn't, then he said something like, " Now look Timmy, this is not the wisest direction you could take your life toward."
Well, he likes to say we'll 'muddle through'. He's been saying that all along actually. 'Not to worry, things will be fine eventually.' blah, blah, blah...
Dark? Darker than ever? Well....maybe he's suffering from those post partum blues, what with him keeping us (the disinterested) up on all his gadding about, his sweet suite at the Ranger's ball yard, and the marrying off of his many offspring. Maybe that's what's got his dauber down. Must have been adding up all the bills from the weddings. O! and he's moving out of the sweet suite.
To put it another way, I have very rarely ever seen a person choose to live lower than they have previously. People are all talk for the most part.
I am seeing a whole generation of skilled blue collar workers live lower than they have previously.
Choice is only indirectly part of the equation. Few understand how choosing to turn every choice over to government hasn't made them richer.
Few understand how choosing to turn every choice over to government hasn't made them richer.
+1
All, we're continuing to see load spikes, which I'm sure some of you have experienced. Examining the logs further, it appears glossary editing may have something to do with it, as it causes a lot of processing to happen every time someone makes a change. I'm going to temporarily restrict access to editing the glossary (you'll still be able to view it), and see if that alleviates the problem. If it does, I'll see if there are things we can do to restore the feature without sacrificing performance.
I appreciate everyone's patience with this - it's a royal pain.
"Mortgage interest deduction going to be curtailed?"
Not bloody likely in the near future. This "article" looks a lot like a "death panels' story in that it appears to be designed to spark furor and sell papers. Don't get me wrong, I think all deductions should be abolished and the base rate reduced by any gains over a balanced budget. But these proposals have far, far, less likelihood of happening than "Audit the Fed" does.
Rock, meet hard place.
Yogi should like the Stiglitz article.
Perhaps he will get his one currency...
Joseph E. Stiglitz -- Farewell to the Dollar as the World's Currency of Choice - washingtonpost.com
Effective Demand,
I blogged that CBO report here when I read it.
CBO.gov: Budget Options, Vol. 2
"Revenue Options" starts on 175 and there is a whole laundry list of them (65). To mention simply mortgage interest deduction does an injustice to the whole report. But I basically think of it as a long-term 5-10 year plan on what might be coming down the road as far as taxes.
I believe it was Duke who asked about reducing the amount of foreign tax credit...
The mortgage interest change is nothing when you compare it to one of the biggest revenue options. "Impose an upstream price on emission of greenhouse gasses". It will raise $800B from 2010-2019. Replacing the MID with a tax credit would only raise a little under $400B.
Of course the LA Times wouldn't have any reason to highlight the housing and other tax changes over taxing greenhouse gasses...
I appreciate everyone's patience with this - it's a royal pain.
Ahhh, ken-- when I say I appreciate what you've done for us, and what you're currently doing for us, I'm sure I speak for all those who know and those who can only guess what maintaining a site like this costs in sweat, aggravation, and frustration. No matter what happens, at least we have someone tangible to pray to,...
"Impose an upstream price on emission of greenhouse gasses".
How does that work? Tax carbon, methane and the others by the mole as it comes across the border or out of the ground?
Re: Mauldin's comments
We can be "ruthless" as a country. No one ever said we have to pay the debt back. If you get more comfortable with that fact, you don't mind ringing up the high deficits, etc. Aren't we already past the point where the dollar status as a reserve currency is up in the air? So if there will be only one chance to lose reserve currency status, why not blow up the currency in a major way instead of having it taken from us on the terms of other folks.
I dunno, but I want to design and sell some type of t-shirt that basically has the message of; "thanks for the cans, suckers!"...
Blackhalo,
Its basically a two-page summary of how the energy cap-and-trade plan would work.
This option would create a regulatory program requiring emitters of large amounts of greenhouse gases to pay a “price” to emit those gases. The policy could be instituted as a tax on emissions or as part of a cap-and-trade system. In either case, payments could be made “upstream,” by domestic energy producers and importers of fossil fuels and other products that lead to greenhouse gases, or “downstream,” on users of energy where the emissions actually occur. Both approaches would yield similar results because the amounts paid upstream for the most part would be passed downstream in higher prices for fuel and for goods and services that use fuel in their produc-tion. Those higher prices, in turn, would create incentives throughout the U.S. economy to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.
Above is from the link.
Damn, quick search of Google reveals that "Thanks for the cans, suckers!" is not a common phrase at all and I'd probably have a clever little t-shirt design if I put an effective image on it...
We can be "ruthless" as a country. No one ever said we have to pay the debt back.
No doubt this will happen if it comes down to it. The US military is still unmatched in the sea and air and will be for decades. But it's still a worst case scenario.
We can be "ruthless" as a country. No one ever said we have to pay the debt back.
Ugh. A hard default is such a BAD idea. How many USAians and companies and corps have T-Bills on the balance sheet as assets. Oil would be a cash only deal and not OUR cash. Exchange rates for dollar+1 for whatever OPEC will take would be usurious.
A soft default is what is in the works. Ben's presses ain't stopping soon and if it does, Timmy will start minting billion dollar coins.
purple -
No doubt this will happen if it comes down to it. The US military is still unmatched in the sea and air and will be for decades. But it's still a worst case scenario.
OK, we have 2 declared wars going on, and shadow wars all over against drugs, terrorism, poverty, etc.
And you want to start another one?
I think our military needs a break if not a long vacation.
kcoop -
I appreciate everyone's patience with this - it's a royal pain.
I really do appreciate all that you put into making not only a great platform for open debate and in my case just shooting the bull.
My two brass slugs would say make the glossary just a link like the polls, etc, and we can just reference people to it.
I have a habit of having a couple dozen or more windows open and I click on the open window to bring it to the front. And often I end up clicking on some silly link into the glossary that pops it up, then I have to come back and reload the current postings. More load on the server and a waste of electrons.
In any case, thanks.
volker the viking -
his sweet suite at the Ranger's ball
I have to admit I kind of choked on that one when I read it.
It's something you have to see to believe.
Have you ever been to a Ranger's ball? I would think he has a very healthy daughter.
I was looking for a chart for rent over time and Google sent me to this blast from the past.
SQUARE FEET; Where Office Prices and Rents Are Not in Sync - NY Times
They way the talk of capitalizing from the "recovery" seems oddly familiar.
“The opportunity to benefit from the market recovery is in front of owners today,” - September 5, 2007
mp -
After reading some of the comments here, I'm curious to know how many people have really ever been in charge--or ever taken charge--of their own destiny.
Destiny? I don't think that word means what you think it means.
Has anyone? Or did they just delude themselves into thinking they did.
Shit happens to the best and worst of us, anyone who thinks they control their future has an ego that is ripe for destruction.
Granted, the harder I work the luckier I get, and fortune does favor the prepared mind. But just when you think your prepared and lucky, life slaps you in the face or kicks you some place else. Get used to it.
But I do agree that some people posting here think very highly of themselves, which they should as long as it can still sync up with what I would call reality. Not that I really understand it, but I do recognize some common delusion we all share.
So on to something very important.
What football teams and games do I need to clear my schedule for and make sure I enjoy them properly!
Going way back to other threads.
Did anyone notice how little of federal income comes from corporation's, compared to how much wealth and assets are locked up and controlled by them.
Now I'm a pretty conservative person, but I seem to keep asking myself how long we will continue to write tax laws by the corp, for the corp and stick it to the wage earner.
Oh, and the more you earn, the more you burn in tax write off's so the only people who actually pay any tax's are the ones who make below 250K and can not afford good lawyers and CPA's fresh out of doing their revolving door job with the IRS.
Please don't get me wrong, I am very willing to pay more tax's if I see some benefits from it. Just in the last 20 years I have been hit with massive increases, and decreases in services. I think I need to buy a good 4x4 just to drive on the local roads.
OK, I got off of work late, and everyone is going to bed, or just waking up.
Just a little mood music. Billy Idol - Dancing With Myself
YouTube - Billy Idol - Dancing With Myself
"Did anyone notice how little of federal income comes from corporation's, compared to how much wealth and assets are locked up and controlled by them."
I think corporate earnings may be down a little bit as of late. Plus corporate earnings get taxed twice. Once as corporate income, and again as dividends and cap gains.
Blackhalo -
I'm all for taxing up front as much as they do a wage-looser, and make the dividends tax free, or if you want to really screw the bag-holder average person reverse it which will happen.
The real point now is people focus on the double taxation and look at the back end and ignores that the front end pays almost nothing compared to assets and locked up wealth.
But, they can afford to buy the votes and the lawyers to dodge the tax's, I can't wait for the "aggressive questioning" of the law to make the free money from the bailout funds a tax write off for the TBTF companies. Some of it is known, the rest will be coming to a blog near you soon, dished out in a healthy and sustainable dosage that the public will consume, digest and ignore.
OK, it's late and I think I have an attitude problem.
I live in tampa, been waiting for a while to buy a place as prices were too bubbly for my taste a few yrs ago even tho i could pay cash for what i wanted, my wife and I started looking in early 2008 and the stuff we found priced right needed too much work or stuff we did like people were being unreasonable, I finally did up buying a house here in march of this yr....the house across the street was sold cash also but needed a lot of work, also this house was a short sale, don't think its an investor as they buyer is moving into the house finally, i live in one the nicer areas of tampa so i doubt this is common throughout the area
Not that I really understand it, but I do recognize some common delusion we all share.
Successful memes displace competing memes. The most successful meme never acknowledges itself because to acknowledge itself is to acknowledge competitors. These memes are exceptionally difficult to displace.
The Sun revolves around the Earth.
The Earth is flat.
All cultures are equal.
The solution to overproduction is working harder to produce more.
Potential work is infinite.
Rookytrader - I live in tampa,
I think if you like the place, and your OK with dropping the cash.
Good for you, you have to live somewhere and from here on out it is sunk cost and you are not speculating on a pie in the sky.
If you loose money long term, so what, we all live an learn. But odds are you can now continue to save money, and build your net worth in reality.
broward - Successful memes displace competing memes.
Morning, hopefully everything is going well for this wonderful day. ---
I really have focused on an "archetype" than an "meme" through my life, perhaps because an archetype is automatically recognized deep down for an individual, while a meme takes some thought and adjustment. I just don't think your average person thinks any more and it takes an earth mover to shift someone out of their comfort zone.
As I pointed out earlier, it's late and I think I have an attitude problem.
That may become my, "Someday this war is...."
broward -
The solution to overproduction is working harder to produce more.
Potential work is infinite.
Now, may I ask WTF is this?
I know many people who work their tails off and produce nothing.
I know many companies that don't work hard and consume a lot of capitol.
Possibly many consume more than they produce and compensate for the over production of the few, but where is the compensation for it?
Tax the over producers to provide potential work for the under producers to do nothing?
For some reason that makes sense to me, so either I need to work more, or drink less beer. Or just work really hard, produce nothing and drink a lot of beer.
I think I have just defined the new economy.
I just don't think your average person thinks any more and it takes an earth mover to shift someone out of their comfort zone.
Completely agree.
I do informal measurements of denial & intractability in various ways, CR is one venue.
I see quite a bit of denial here in certain streams.
People ignore what they don't want to hear.
It's somewhat measurable.
I'd like to note I'm a daytrader and work from home and before was living/working out of a 750 sqft condo with my wife 3 dogs and cat
, so pretty much had to make the move, found the perfect place with a mother in law suite so office now is bigger than my old condo lol but now in the office i have a pool table and a kegerator haha
broward -
I see quite a bit of denial here in certain streams.
People ignore what they don't want to hear.
It's somewhat measurable.
OK, but don't let anyone know, it might upset their "shiny happy people" life.
I have been freaked out for the last 8 years, and still am.
I still don't see a way out that is realistic. politically capable.
All I see is a lot of desperation, spite, anger, and foolishness/stupidity. I can see it because I feel it also, yet no one rocks the boat, or else they become label'd, nuts.
Personally when I hear that I'm reminded of McAuliffe at the Battle of Bastogne. Not very elegant but very fitting.
Rookytrader-
I'd like to note I'm a daytrader
That's OK, its all right.
So how long has it been since your last trade?
-- Lame attempt at a 12 step program.
I can't be an alcoholic, they go to meetings. I'm just a drunk....
last trade was friday
Rookytrader - last trade was friday.
Wow, you like to live dangerously. I'm a chicken, I work kind of hard for my money and I want to keep it. I have found that people have gotten very good at taking it away from me.
I think I am on the bleeding edge of the new reality. Most people don't even realize how much is being stolen from them, or they think they somehow can come out on top on the other side.
The reality is we are all fools, it just depends when you realize it.
Wow, it's getting hard to type, and I just realized its 1:25 am. Time to run.
Good night, morning, afternoon to all; and have a great Sunday or Monday. Got to brew a brew tomorrow that will take a long time.
lol i do anywhere from 20-100 trades a day, and if you think that is dangerous look at VION i traded that on fri
Rookytrader - but now in the office i have a pool table and a kegerator haha
Quick review of my rants I saw this. OK, the pool table is a nice bling.
It makes a man cave.
The Kegerator is a need.
yah was a bday present from the wife, now i'm trying to find a reasonably priced tap handle, which i think i'm gonna go with a goose island handle(i looks like the aflac duck ), and maybe an odouls one to put on it when i'm not there, so other people won't drink from it lol
All cultures are equal. - How much acceptance has this ever really gotten?
Potential work is infinite. - What is replacing this? To accept its demise is to run out of ideas completely. As a manager/supervisor I can't imagine not having an infinite supply of ideas about how to put other people to work productively.
OT, but very informative:
Ted Kennedy's Soviet Gambit - Forbes.com
Excerpt:
"Kennedy would make certain the networks gave Andropov air time--and that they rigged the arrangement to look like honest journalism."
Now let's see if I can in fact post again . . .
That's an awesome set of smileys, but a thumbsup and thumbsdown would be nice.
(Hint, hint.)
and who are those who are hurt most by the rise in second hand car prices? Lower income people. Is this country not tired of the hypocrisy of going to Church on Sunday but forgetting the main message of the bible- take care of the weak, sick and poor?
If conservatives and liberals demanded that every new government program (spending or tax break) come with the tax increase to pay for it I think we would all get a better government. How long do you think the war in Iraq would have lasted if there was a tax surcharge on J6P to pay for it?
Went to naked capitalism site...blank screen...is this normal?
take care of the weak, sick and poor?
Why do you think we're subsidizing the bad banks!?!?! They're all three!
Hoopajoops, that's some pretty dark humor for a sunny Sunday morning
I'd gladly trade you
Tuesday for some 
today. Happy day before window dressing day everyone and no, those aren't storm clouds above Pasadena.
Ohhhh, I want some ponies Dawg...I have Colombian coffee though, no DD.
The trick is they are government ponies. They will always be coming next Tuesday.
I guess the upside to that is it will cost very little to feed and stable them.
For just a little more tax money and government control we will cure all of your troubles!
"To put it another way, I have very rarely ever seen a person choose to live lower than they have previously. People are all talk for the most part."
Badger, when I see this it is typically a wife stopping work to raise kids.
Beware of the S&P 500 P/E ratio. For many companies, "earnings" included stock appreciation, or even alleged earnings on negative amortization loans. I'd like to see the charts with those earnings backed out.
On the other side, investment losses in the stock market pushed the number down until around March 2009. Seeing PE ratios go this high in a rising stock market tells you something. 1. Actual operating earnings are down. 2. Loans are being written down.
Good morning
Waiting for the
or I'll have to read 253 comments
"I have very rarely ever seen a person choose to live lower than they have previously. People are all talk for the most part."
.....this valley is literally FULL of people who have decided to bailout & "live lower" - with the conscious thought of giving the government less during and after the change. I am one of them.
I've also met people who hide a lot of income, either to avoid taxes, or to keep it away from exes.
BSR, I never had that conscious thought and governmental action wasn't a big factor in my 'modified limited dropout,' but it sure did result in a lower standard of living and I'm fine with that.
Less stress. No heart attack yet. Got to be there with the kids for middle and high school.
"I've also met people who hide a lot of income, either to avoid taxes, or to keep it away from exes. "
Kind of like Charlie Rangle?
. . . or to keep it away from exes.
Oh, yeah, and still living with the first wife and mother of the children. There's something to be said for that, too.
BSR: the depth and breadth of misunderstanding by many at this place is beyond the abilities of the English language
Your small valley is not alone. Count it up and find near 40 million who have leaned back, folded their arms and await what's coming.
Who do they think the myriad discouraged workers are? The ruse is working to that extent anyway.
Yukio Hatoyama (Heads the Democratic Party of Japan) : Japan Must Shake Off U.S.-Style Globalization
exit polls indicate the Democratic Party of Japan (DJP) may have won a 3-to-1 victory over the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP.)
Japanese opposition set for victory; PM quits as party head - CNN.com
Looks like this one was Night of the Living Thread.
Doubtful. More likely people are deluding themselves into thinking they can make the money again. Once they have they offer to move back up, they will.
Back when I sold cars, one of the lowest prospects for a sale was someone looking to move from SUV or full sized car to a compact or even a Corolla. When was the last time you saw someone move from the $500,000 home to the $200,000 home? Sure, there are some that make that choice when they have kids. Others make the choice when they retire, but more often if a retiree is downsizing it is because they really can't afford to maintain the house or pay the taxes and still keep their head above ground.
Congrats, SF........Much to be said for that (1st wife and Mom to kids). And, "downsizing" definitely is better for your mental-health. Nowadays, I don't think it's possible to hide anything of real value long-term, and, it doesn't make much sense. I specifically had some problems with the LAST bailout (S&L) and knew the deceit and dishonesty would occur again - and guess what?
Kauai_Kahuna (homepage, profile) wrote on Sun, 8/30/2009 - 6:25
I think I am on the bleeding edge of the new reality.
Most people don't even realize how much is being stolen from them, or they think they somehow can come out on top on the other side.
The reality is we are all fools, it just depends when you realize it.
One of the cleverest tricks of the one-percenters was convincing the ten-percenters that "we are just like you". Intergenerational wealth and high-income jobs are miles apart in terms of 'rich'. Do you think the 1% will hesitate for even a moment to throw the working rich under the bus?
Some times less turns out to be more. That is what I like now days.
If they are collecting unemployment, they by definition did not make the choice to lower their lifestyle.
When was the last time you saw someone move from the $500,000 home to the $200,000 home?
In Soviet America, home price moves you!
BSR, I think mental health is underappreciated, especially by those caught up in the old fashioned rat race. They don't realize that running faster just makes the wheel spin faster.
I admire what you've done with a small ranch. I can't pretend I ever got 'back to the land' during my own changes, but now I can see what a good thing that would have been to do.
They had a choice of becoming self employed or being employed. Self employed does not get unemployment benefits if he fails to earn an income. There is always a choice good or bad.
........last night I had to attend a family wedding (250-300 people). The first "party" of any size I've attended in YEARS. The common joke was if the Mrs. could convince me to put on a pair of shoes and long-legged trousers for the event. I kept wondering why everyone was looking at my feet, until told. Anyway, I started doing a head count while asking what everyone was now doing (since this was the first time many had seen me "dry") and Virtually A THIRD of them are out of or under-employed. It was an eye-opener. EVERYONE seems to be "unemployment check" addicted.
Self employed does not get unemployment benefits if he fails to earn an income.
If you are corporation, you do. You pay into the state and fed UI funds based on the salary the corp pays you. Then, if you lay yourself off, you can collect unemployment. No joke.
Mr Slippery: correct
Ben Dover: correct, these are where many more of the 40 million reside
BSR: shoes? Man you gotta wear shoes sos you don't get worms!
Love the Randians here. The person chooses to be unemployed and then 6 months or 1 year later, chooses to be employed.
Self-employed workers of the world, unite. Contact your tax adviser and become corporations.
Somehow I don't see this happening much.
Mr Slippery,
Interesting, Back when I was in business my accountant said no. Maybe on a state by state basis but any way that would be a vote of no confidence against yourself and less profit in the long haul costing you far more.
EVERYONE seems to be "unemployment check" addicted.
CR has linked some articles that tend to show people collect almost the full number of weeks of UI available, before a significant percentage of them get new jobs.
This, of course, is the downside to extended UI benefits (even though I supported the concept).
Lobbyist Ben Dover,
It was true in the state of Texas, other states I'm not sure, but it makes sense. The corp is a separate legal entity. Of course, collecting UI would increase the UI rate of the business. I remember having this discussion with the state UI office and I went over the scenarios with them. Yes, I had to pay, and yes, I could collect if I laid myself off. Fun!
edit: I think all self-employed people should have some kind of legal entity. At least an S-corp or LLC. Not only do you get some liability protection, you can take advantage of the other half of tax code related to business expenses. I've had 2 S-corps and currently run my side biz as an LLC. More paper work at tax time, but a lot less in taxes.
Japan: National broadcaster NHK, using projections based on exit polls of roughly 400,000 voters, said the DPJ was set to win 300 seats and the Liberal Democrats only about 100. Official results were expected early Monday.
(Liberal Democrats were the ones with 54 years of rule only interrupted once briefly by a coalition government that collapsed in the 90s)
`
Add in the tax treaties trying to finish before the G20 in Pittsburgh, and we've got an interesting omelet of international affairs
It was in Colorado, Workman's comp we had a choice to opt out and did that by self insurance. That would have been an insane expense at the time.
Japan elections threw out 54 year ruling party. Guess they won't be America's "bitch in tow" anymore. More trouble for USD if they insist on buying our debt in their own currency.
August 30, 1930
Recent strength in banking stocks considered positive - this group suffered heavily in panic last fall; only recently has renewed accumulation been evident.
Some bears have been arguing that stocks are still selling at higher price-earnings multiples than at low point of previous depressions; optimists counter that the greater current financial strength of corporations justifies the higher multiple.
News from 1930
naked capitalism moved to wordpress from blogger last night, so there might be some problems in the transition.
sorry REBear, didn't see you beat me to it