Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators: Still a Widespread Recession in July
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 08/25/2009 - 7:47am (220 comments)
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Yesterday's news. Dow 10,000 by end of week.
Most of the country looks like a bloody mess financially, North Dakota notwithstanding.
Financial markets have not fully understood that the U.S. Federal Reserve's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for an extended period means they will stay low beyond when officials normally would raise them, a top Fed official said on Friday.
"I don't think markets have really digested what that means," St Louis Fed President James Bullard said in an interview
Well, according to Rosenberg the stock market has already priced in 4% GDP growth for next year. If WH budget office is right on next year's growth then the equity market (and not the bond market) is acting squirrelly.
The 4 States reporting flat to up coincident indicators have the combined population (10.3m) of Los Angeles County (9.9m). Caution is required when using State level data.
CR Blog in denial.
Mu-ha-ha-ha.
E-ville Oligarchs chuckle.
I'm pretty sure American Idoloigarchy is rigged, but I can't prove it.
the equity market (and not the bond market) is acting squirrelly.
high grade stuff buried next to the chestnuts.
Getting some Drupal "exceeded max connections" errors. Busy day.
The 4 States reporting flat to up coincident indicators have the combined population (10.3m) of Los Angeles County (9.9m). Caution is required when using State level data.
Hater. Just because MS is the paragon of economic coincidence doesn't mean you have to rain on its parade so early in the reporting cycle.
It puzzles me how many pundits are seizing on the economic indicators as showing a recovery. Duh.
Part of it is engineered, surely, with some activity pushed back into 3Q09 and some pulled forward (eg C4C) to create a blip - this would make sense as a "confidence booster" to get personal consumption spending up, except it seems to ignore the underlying changes:
1) unemployment - including people who gave up, of course, not just U3
2) massive decrease in income by people on commissions, like realtors
3) furloughs and imposed pay cuts, these hit personal consumption way out of proportion, people cover their fixed costs and cut back or defer everything else - $100M bonuses at C don't make up for 100,000 people taking $1,000 pay cuts out of $40k jobs.
4) local government cut backs which are just about to break over local economies
No confidence boosting "recovery" illusion is going to overcome this for more than a few weeks, and I don't see what other sector is going to be growing to pick up the slack.
Is the recovery talk just boosterism, or am I missing something?
Vermont has some pretty strict mortgage lending rules and development didn't go wild during the boom years. Perhaps that accounts for the bounce back. Being ostentatious is looked down on (except for recent arrivals from NJ who seem to have forgetten why they came here) so going deep into debt was not something that is/was encouraged-
nah, that was just when my firefox crashed and when it came back up it had to restore the old CR comments tabs...
I'll get to read them someyear...
E-ville Oligarchs chuckle.
Not sure I understand. ISTM the commentariat is merely nonplussed by the highly engineered Q3 positive GDP because they take a longer view and recognize the bill for that machination is the guarantee of a double dip.
lots of funny stuff goin on in ND (Fargo!)
[best humorous horror flic eva!]
Playing the devils advocate- everything you say is true but knowing the stupidity of Wall street we could rely on them to spin this - loosen their wallets , bid up stock prices etc and perhaps just perhaps we could get out of this. The alternative do the right thing and Wall street would go into an even deeper funk (no instant gratification) and that alone would sink our plans.
mass delusion IS good for confidence....
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 8:48 am
reply ignore user
"our forecasting record is second to none."
That's a little frightening, I had no idea that they had no idea.
Since second to none hasn't worked out too well can I get some forecasting that is first to none.
[best humorous horror flic eva!]
"Idle Hands"
The Az Great Resesion is going to last a long, long time.
All the call centers were shipped out years ago. IT is going down big time.
We have way more houses than people. Very low wages and very few benifits with what jobs there are.
bid up stock prices etc and perhaps just perhaps we could get out of this.
How does bidding up stock prices get us out of this?
they take a longer view
Longer view of what?
I had to wait in line at the Spaghetti Factory on a Monday night.
Someone asked what goverment programs do a good job in the last column - I have the opposite question, what are the large companies that are actually run well? From my experience most large companies (In working for a huge conglomerate) have more in common with organized crime than actual competive organizations, as it is much easier to set up barriers to competetion through regulation, M&A activity and patents than to actually develop new products... Also history is filled with poorly run corporations rife with fraud at the highest levels (Enron anyone?, S&Ls, oh and our current banking crisis) - and do we consider quasi-monopolies like Microsoft well run? GS? or are tobacco and health insurance companies well run just because they are profitable but screw their customers in oh so many ways....
the play is in euro dollar futures spreads. They are torn between the stock market and the bond market. The front part going with the stock market valuation and the back with the bond market.
What exactly is going on in North Dakota? Wind energy boom?
If we get an economic truth and reconciliation tribunal 15 years from now to heal the wounds who would be in the docket.?
About 10 years ago, I bought a Fargo video that came with a snow globe as an added bonus...
The snow in question was red, and the scene within-was of Steve Buscemi being fed into a wood chipper~
The American model has always been, Bigger and Bigger is Better. We have big cars, big farms, big businesses, big government and big butts. We think super size is best.
Maybe we were wrong.
I was at the Spaghetti Factory Saturday night. [Ontario] No waiting at 6:30.
My point was that the CR commentariat doesn't get excited about datums until they reveal trend rather than puppy dog drooling over every press release looking for
but, psychological pump priming worked before, er back in, er, wotsits year
we all just have to think positive and go out and spend
because you can never have too may barbie dolls
FT.com / Reportage - Shopping habits of China’s ‘suddenly wealthy’
That's what I am wondering about RD - some kind of weighted scoring - by state % of GDP or population...
one would hope that both progressives and honest conservatives would be able to dump the slogans and actually figure out that they have more in common with each other than they do with the oligarchs in their own parties.
Several examples- both should be in favor or breaking up the hold of large corporations they are both undemocratic and un free market. States rights is another thing that they should be agreeing on. paradoxically smaller government is also one of the things. Big government is just another way for the special interest to hijack the federal treasury. Case in point C4C drives up prices of used cars screwing the poor while creating windfalls for the auto companies who get rid of all their 2009 models at full price.
pretty much everybody other than many on this blog.
I think it is convenient to blame Wall Street. Don't get me wrong they deserve plenty of blame. But nobody held a gun to peoples head to HELOC their appreciation or go deep into debt. Sure the pusher deserves blame but so does the junky.
being fed into a wood chipper
After that scene, I was convinced that guillotines on Wall Street would suck in vividness to wood chippers on each corner - working on the bankers, hedgies, and assorted financial thieves. (Part of the superiority would be the sound of body parts straining the mechanism)
We are really way overdue for some French-style revolutionary ardor.
The problem we, on this board, have is that the guy coming home from work is getting mugged by the junkies and the pushers.
Many worked, saved, have little debt. But their wallets have been taken against their will.
Never mind
Jim, sadly, that isn't true. This is more like the Opium Wars than the French Revolution. We're the peasants, going cold turkey on credit instad of dope.
"But nobody held a gun to peoples head to HELOC their appreciation"
The only way to pocket your winnings from your home going up in value during the housing bubble while still living there was visa vis the HELOC.
Very few people sold their overpriced house and got out of dodge to cheaper digs elsewhere, which was the only avenue to get out, as it turns out.
Third attempt at linky:
Asian Stocks Fall on Lower China Earnings, U.S. Credit Concern - Bloomberg.com
C
/hmm, fail. It really is different this time.
in their world the logic is pretty straight forward.
Higher stock price consumers feel richer can take does gains and spend. Pension plans look healthier. J6P looks at rising stock prices and believes that the economy must be doing better that then prompts them to go out and figure that they need to buy houses because surely those prices will be going up.
All the steps follow logically if you diagnosis the current economic problems as originating from the troubles on Wall Street. Fix that and everything is fine. On the other hand if you believe as I do that the problems on Wall Street are symptom not the cause of the problem than I believe the current policies are actually making things worse not better.
Longer view of what?
I had to wait in line at the Spaghetti Factory on a Monday night.
Broward, this comment is disingenuous. Anyone familiar with the Spaghetti factory in Seattle would know that it is huge, and they frequently close off portions of the restaurant so they don't need as many waitstaff. It's still a good sign that there's a wait, but it means very little unless you're telling me that the entire restaurant was open? I don't believe that for a second.
Cheers,
GH
"making things worse not better. "
only insofar as that money flows into crude, and/or threatens a dollar collapse through excessive propping.
Even if you sold the house, you had to live someplace. And if you didn't buy, you were going to pay taxes.
And if you sold, would you not buy in the area you knew, stay close to work, friends and family.
Selling and buying also cost some of the equity.
crazyv (profile)
ah yes
good god almighty, why are you guys eating @ Spaghetti Factory?
there are lots of locally owned restaurants that have better food at comparable prices, i guarantee it.
you didn't have to do either. You could have just stayed in the house and pretended that it was worth what you paid for it and lived within your means. There are plenty of stories about people who purchased 10 years ago who are deep underwater. That was entirely because of refinancing and HELOC.
What exactly is going on in North Dakota? Wind energy boom?
Sort of. Gas drilling.
Are there statistics on how much of the HELOC world is underwater, or is that and the whole second mortgage thing all off in limbo?
null, have to disagree there. For $10 you get a heaping plate of spaghetti, salad, milk or coffee, bread, and ice cream for dessert. If you're still hungry (which is unlikely), you can pay another $3 and get another whole plate of spaghetti. Believe me, I like the locally owned restaurants too -- but for value I haven't found anywhere that can top the OSF.
No waiting at the Spaghetti Factory last year, it had about 1/2 the business of last night.
Sorry, dudes, but the world ain't falling apart.
For the vast majority of people, things look fine.
About 10 years ago, 18 people that worked at the bank where I did business, hit the California lottery for $17 million, around $965k per person...
They had opted for 26 annual payments, and quite a few of the people involved decided to sell their annuities immediately. The best offer anybody received was about $225k, of which they would be taxed around 40%, so maybe they ended up with $140k clear, per person.
All I had to do was sell my house and scoop up $500k profit tax-free and go live somewhere else much cheaper, it wasn't that hard.
Compare and contrast the 2 lottery winnings...
MarketWatch economist, Irwin Kellner, gets it:
"Guess what? The Federal Reserve has not only stopped depositing copious amounts of liquidity into the economy -- it now appears to be in the process of making a sizable withdrawal.
A close look at quantitative measures of monetary policy reveals a sudden change in trend. After growing at unprecedented rates for well over a year, these aggregates stopped rising several months ago and have since declined, according to data provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
For example, the monetary base -- the raw material for the money supply -- has fallen at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8% from early April of this year through mid-August, after soaring at a 187% pace during the previous eight months.
And after ballooning from $100 billion to nearly $1 trillion between September 2008 and mid-May, adjusted reserves have since declined at a 43% clip, to just over $800 billion.
As a result, the Fed's two measures of the money supply, M2 and MZM, have begun to contract. M2 has shrunk at a 3% pace since the middle of June, while MZM, the St. Louis Fed's measure of liquid money, is down by 2% over the same period.
Both had been rising by rates as much as 15% earlier this year. These are sharp enough changes over a long enough period to suggest that our central bankers are more concerned about inflation developing down the road than you might think, judging by their public statements...
This V-shaped configuration for monetary policy is why I think the recovery will look like a W.
It is also a good reason to take some profits from the recent run up in stocks -- along with the fact that the two worst months for equities, September and October, are just around the corner."
At this point you have to be very wary of any economist talking about all the money the Fed has injected in the system. Not only is the monetary base not growing, it is contracting. Any economist that isn't aware of this is a fraud.
What exactly is going on in North Dakota? Wind energy boom?
Commodities... oil & gas in the west... wheat & cattle in the middle... sugar beats in the east.
Plus a sprinkling of globally competitive mfg throughout.
Enough to put a state w/ less than a million people in the green.
this is why I always side with pro players over mgmt. a quick 2mm lottery win isn't all that. it definitely isn't worth what the nfl does to your body.
Josap- some people define a mugging as saying " I did everything right and my home was worth $ X two years ago and is only worth 1/2X today" they miss the point that their home was only worth $X two years ago because of the junkies and pushers.
However, there are many (and I include myself in this) who have acted responsibly- didn't buy too much home, have little or no debt, if they have mortgages are paying them on time and bought fuel efficient cars all along ( so get screwed by c4c). I think we all have a legitimate right to be pissed of to see how government is grandly giving away our tax dollars to support all the dead beats. Unfortunately there will never be enough of us to force a truth and reconciliation commission of the pusher and junkies.
For the vast majority of people, things look fine.
granted, my experience has extreme location bias, but in my midwest state capital town, people are scared.
really scared.
We stayed in the house.
If our house is worth X. and all the houses in the neighborhood are worth the same it doesn't matter if it is 100,000 or 1,000,000. The "value" relitive to other roofs over your head are equal.
Seveal people on our street took the Free Money out of thier house. And they bought a rental house thinking it would get them more Free Money. I think there are only two families on our street that didn't go for Free Money. We and the other family are still ok. Although prices have gone down so far, our wallets have been taken. We are at break even "loan to value". If prices continue down as predicted here, we will be underwater as well. 2 inches or 2 feet, still means you can't sell, still means you have lost equity that you built up years before the boom.
I'll check in later. Gotta escape NYC before the tunnels jam.
C
that's probably largely a function of the drop in ag prices.
If I told you that you could receive $50 for every $20 banknote you had in your pocket, you'd have no problem selling every last one, so why was it any different with overpriced homes?
For the vast majority of people, things look fine.
granted, my experience has extreme location bias, but in my midwest state capital town, people are scared.
really scared.
Ya that sums it up pretty well - most haven't lost their job, home or car just yet - but are concerned in the back of their mind it could happen. That is a BIG switch in psychology from say 2004-2006.
U.S. Raises Estimate for 10-Year Deficit to $9 Trillion
The Obama administration, citing an economic downturn that has been deeper than it had first thought, raised its estimate of the government's deficit over the next
decade to $9 trillion from $7.1 trillion.
Anyone who thinks this good ship The U.S.A Titanic is unsinkable had best do a little history reading and quick.
These budgets are unsustainable....And our Dollar is a walking Zombie of a currency....Hello Zimbabwe.
that's probably largely a function of the drop in ag prices.
nope...this state capital is also a very large university town, and a leading biotech research area.
nothing but university professors and scientists as far as the eye can see.
homes never appreciated more than 5% a year, EVER.
its a steady eddy economy (and culture).
these folks dont get rattled easily.
Letter from my landlord, posted in the lobby of the building and shoved under everyone's front door:
"Due to the dramatic increase in delinquent and unpaid rent...effective immediately we will begin reporting rent payments to the three credit bureaus...."
Restaurant business may still be ok, but it's the small expenses that are getting cut. Like the monthly rent, apparently.
I think some folks were aware that real incomes had been stagnant since Reagan, and knew the whole thing was a big silly party.
News: U.S. Universities Lead in Biotechnology Research, Tech Transfer, and Commercialization of IP.
I would guess you're talking about Minny. I don't really consider Minnesota or Michigan the midwest. They kind of have their own Germanic Brett Favre mosquito thing going on up there.
HH--I believe incomes did increase during Clinton's terms, but you are right, without higher real incomes, smoke and mirrors. Methinks it's still only piss that trickles down.
nope...this state capital is also a very large university town, and a leading biotech research area.
nothing but university professors and scientists as far as the eye can see.
homes never appreciated more than 5% a year, EVER.
its a steady eddy economy (and culture).
these folks dont get rattled easily.
Madison? If so they have more pain coming their way... UW & state gov will feel more cuts next year. Plus GE isn't doing so hot now - expect more lay offs there too.
Madison was always a bit vulnerable to this - I had family who grew up in Wisconsin & migrated to either Mpls, Milwaukee or Chicago so as to be a little less vulnerable to the ups-n-downs of a one horse town.
Similar problem in Ann Arbor... both great places to live but vulnerable.
If I bang on the dash til the lights turn green the engine will be fine, dammit!
After the C4C growth and first-time house tax rebate activity passes, what is going to drive growth?
Who is hiring?
That's one green shoot that's in for a mowing then...
I see an ultimate level of 100MM payroll jobs. We aren't going to grow for a couple of decades. Any apparent "growth" will be what it has been for a while now, speculation on asset classes as they attempt to recapture the devaluatory effects of a mismanaged dollar.
dryfly-
you guessed it, and i agree somewhat.
i have recently had a 6 month discussion in my head: fight-or-flight?
minneapolis would be the flight response, i like it there, very livable big city.
but i have chosen to fight; i love it here, and it pisses me off that i am being backed into this corner.
Who is hiring?
The Old Spaghetti Factory?
Without offering any details, the White House budget director said that President Obama will soon unveil plans to reduce long-term deficits tied to soaring costs of Medicare, Social Security and other entitlement programs.
Americans safety net going bye bye but the feel confident because stock market is going up and up.....
98% should get a new American dream and fast !
it is sad to visualize rust belt blight slowly spreading through the great lakes region to the other side and beyond.
A friend just returned from visiting family in a great circle tour of middle America - Georgia, Kentucky, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Arkansas. His relations are nervous, yes, but the better word would be angry.
“It would be the height of folly to reward Mr Bernanke for the recovery that never stuck.“
- Stephen Roach
Re: it is sad to visualize rust belt blight slowly spreading through the great lakes region to the other side and beyond
But, really, how MUCH do the peasants need? Shelter, a car, food, & cable. They are perfectly happy with this as long as THEIR diety, king (Party), and country are number 1.
YOU EES AA, YOU EES AA, YOU EES AA
I've been hearing about "the Rust Belt" for 30 years now. Still haven't seen teaming masses of starving Rust Belters.
Who is hiring?
Retail's hiring in a big way around here. But that doesn't answer your question about what would drive growth.
minneapolis would be the flight response, i like it there, very livable big city.
but i have chosen to fight; i love it here, and it pisses me off that i am being backed into this corner.
Mpls has its own issues but is big enough so that a person with some skills can at least find some opportunities even in a recession. Might take a while but they would be there - eventually. Madison is so small that if it melts down there would be nothing you could do but leave. That could be in the works IF state gov, UW and GE all dump at the same time.
My wife is an ex-cheesehead... didn't go to the UW system though [went to a small private school out of state in Iowa]. You couldn't drag here away from theTwin Cities area now with a mule team. We live about 50 miles SE of there on the Big River. Best of both worlds.
The rust belt might have giveaway homes pricewise, but everything else costs the same as it does in more prosperous cities, but with not very many jobs that pay much...
Like a double-kill for doddering cities well past their prime~
Re: But that doesn't answer your question about what would drive growth.
As long as it feed the peasants - and pays the cable bill - it's probably enough. The NEW growth will be for the worth class. Who cares about the rest, except for the guilt-ridden type 2's (PT's).
What the type 2's can't comprehend is that the more "the evil government" trys to help these losers the more pissed off they get, and this has been going on for 40 years now. If that not a psychological problem of the type 2's, I don't know what IS.
JD - some are taking them up on it...
Detroit's hard edge -- and dirt-cheap real estate -- attract artists from around the world
Madison is so small that if it melts down there would be nothing you could do but leave.
i have a line on a govt job, its a done deal.
which is ironic, as i am the crazy guy that is always ranting about the government (in between yelling for the kids to get off the lawn).
there is a quote that i really love (from steve albini, dont know if he is the originator):
slowly, and without trying, we all become what we despise most
The eternal false dichotomy - it's either brain sucking zombies in the streets or
- this is the long slow grind writ large for ya, tell that vast majority how well they have been doing:
Their income is here:
energyecon: Distribution of Real Income Growth since 1980
Their cost structure is here:
(the farther above the green line, the greater the cost growth in real terms)
Graph of cost growth
Re: but the better word would be angry
And, as the anger builds we get the type #1's political dream coming true: Christian, Corporate, Fascist Merica. Substitute Christian for Mao you get China. Same ideology.
Diety, King (party), COUNTRY.
(PT's)
Hamburg 1945: Bombed into oblivion, rebuilt
Hamtramck 2009: Bombed economically, festering.
I don't get it. Prices seem to have fallen back to the 2003 levels. Anybody who bought before than should still have all their equity in hand. Sure you lost the equity built since then but it wouldn't have been built but for the shenanigans of Wall street. I thought prices were pretty inflated in 2000 so them going back to that level wouldn't surprise nor be evidence of anything really wrong.
1997 prices.
BUT:
Hamburg 1945: Rebuilt to save the world from those godless commies.
Hamtramch 2009: How many welfare queens there again?
I eagerly anticipate 1984 prices on homes, which is double-plus-good.
Central America has been like that for a long, long time.
Perhaps it is Karma - midwestern companies like United Fruit may have helped make it that way.
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation, and then by deflation, the banks and the corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their father's conquered."
- Thomas Jefferson
"A little rebellion now and then is a good thing. The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."
- - Thomas Jefferson
However most Americans today are too stupid, complacent, lazy, gullible and fat !
would we be even talking about home prices if (a) people had jobs (b) we didn't depend on the home ATM to sustain consumer spending (c) people had purchased homes they could afford with decent down payments. ?
When asked to clean up a mess which I have done in several jobs- the first step is to contain the mess and quarantine. The second step is to grow a book of good business then try a whittle down the mess. I think those steps apply to housing as well.
Step right up and own your own banks here!...oh ya this country is going to the shitter.......and quick.
Owning Your Own Bank May Be Easier than Ever
Owning Your Own Bank May Be Easier than Ever-Minyanville
Re: Central America has been like that for a long, long time
Good point. AND, this is the normal political organization for most of history. The US is abnormal, and is now getting MORE normal.
Deity, King (nobility - party), Country. That's ALL that matters.
(And NO, Europe is also abnormal. Don't forget, they just got over slaughtering each other 50 years ago. That pushed down testosterone levels to abnormally low levels. )
"The U.S. national debt will nearly double over the next 10 years"
"Obama has pledged not to raise taxes on U.S. households earning less than $250,000 a year"
Ten years from now, i will be making more than 250K but experience a lower standard of living + the doughnut tax.
Owning your own bank is overrated. I'd rather own my own country. Iceland has potential.
After the C4C growth and first-time house tax rebate activity passes, what is going to drive growth?
Phase 2 and 3 and 4 and 5 of those programs.
This been brought up yet -
ap - Consumer sentiment improves more than expected
Above 50 again... but... "Still, the index is well below 90, the minimum level associated with a healthy economy. Anything above 100 signals strong growth."
There's your market maker for today.
Re: Phase 2 and 3 and 4 and 5 of those programs.
If the stock market keeps going up, I'd predict 401k Equity Loans should be the next scam. That could drive growth. It takes a LOT of people to process loan applications.
Re: There's your market maker for today.
How high will it be when the DOW passes 35k?
how anyone can compare the US to Zimbabwe on any level is beyond me. Or the 1930's.
dryfly,
yep
answers from 5000 consumers in a survey churning billions on wall street? what a game we live in...
Broward,
We'll see. You have your opinions, I have my own. I think we're in the eye of the storm, having passed through the early weaker bands. But citing ANECDOTAL evidence of a recovery by looking at a VALUE restaurant, without speaking to whether the entire place is open or not, is WEAK!
fwiw, it was actually consumer "confidence" that was a green shoot and not consumer "sentiment," which was the downer. the former is conducted by The Conference Board and the latter by UMich. i'm too lazy to read up on the differences in the methodology, not like it matters.
"Or the 1930's."
Um... because that was a deflationary global credit collapse with sustained job losses, too?
What TPTB understand (being nobility) is that it doesn't take much to keep the peasants happy. All they need is just ENOUGH. "Minumum Payment Merica" should give them enough AND allow the nobility to keep looting. THAT's a good plan to keep things going.
Kermit just shit the bed. I guess the auction wasn't a pony-fest.
We human beans live our lives largely based upon past performance, and what's coming down the pike has the look of many previous financial epochs of the past, with one key exception...
Computers.
There's no need to print gobs of money, when you can just type in $787,000,0000,000,000,000.00, click on the mouse and send money hither and yon, no muss-no fuss.
Zimbabwe is stuck with 1923 Weimar technology, which is woefully out of date, and painfully obvious to the populace.
Well, you got the "gullible" part right if you think Jefferson ever used the word "deflation" as related to currency. But a good internet hoax never dies.
today's chart looks a lot like yesterday's chart. i wonder if we've found a top.
"Kermit just shit the bed."
rofl
eric, looks green as Mt. Tam in april to me....
eric, it looks as though yields are pretty stable, today.
@GH
I have to concur. A packed restaraunt (same for stores) means nothing. What is important is what they are spending. A couple can easily cut their tab 30% or more by cutting back on alcohol/splitting entrees/apps only.
CR needs to come up with a restaurant index like hotels REVPAR.
Are you guys just trying to get eric all weepy-eyed ... for his puts?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 9:28 am No waiting at the Spaghetti Factory last year, it had about 1/2 the business of last night.
Sorry, dudes, but the world ain't falling apart.
For the vast majority of people, things look fine.
20-30% declines from the peak, and much more in other areas, does not denote the world is falling apart. Using a crowded Spaghetti Factory as an indicator might not be reliable. One lb. of soggy pasta, runny sauce for $6 might not mean what you seem to think it does.
Re: and painfully obvious to the populace
It's also, though, that OUR peasants don't have to PAY $5,000,000 for milk. And, we don't have any starving peasants (meaning, from the social class that OTHER peasants care about. We know there are unworthy losers starving, but, well, you know, losers are losers).
As long as the type 1 peasants have HOPE of recapturing THEIR government from THOSE LIBERALS and returning it the GREATNESS it once was (before THOSE LIBERALS GAVE ALL THAT WELFARE MONEY TO THOSE PEOPLE AND BANKRUPTED THIS GREAT NATION) then there will be no riots.
But LOOK OUT when the type #1 hope of peaceful change happens.
(PT's)
eric-
you pay attention to the fibs?
i thought for sure the 38.2 ($SPX ~1014 area) was gonna be the one......
booze is still something of a cash business, making this kind of thing difficult to track.
Hack, there are many more differences than similarities.
@Yalt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 10:26 am
Well, you got the "gullible" part right if you think Jefferson ever used the word "deflation" as related to currency. But a good internet hoax never dies.
Well if you weren't complacent or lazy ( even thought this quotation is at least partly spurious ) it is grounded in validity if you too the time to research it !
Get back on your gerbil wheels Timmy and Ben, run you rodents, run!
crazyv (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 10:05 am
I don't get it. Prices seem to have fallen back to the 2003 levels. Anybody who bought before than should still have all their equity in hand. Sure you lost the equity built since then but it wouldn't have been built but for the shenanigans of Wall street. I thought prices were pretty inflated in 2000 so them going back to that level wouldn't surprise nor be evidence of anything really wrong.
It ain't that simple. If you overbought in 2003 by not putting enough down, too much house, ignoring high operating expenses, low return improvements, etc. then even 2003 is not going to break even. And then there's taxes which in most places is based on what the stupidest person paid not what you paid. There's also the people that MEW'd in order to double down buying an income/investment property. Finally if you've been paying too much for housing you haven't been saving or devoting enough attention to other financial needs.
Prices retracing to 2003 levels represents an evaporation of far more han the lost home price equity. Seeing as over that period the average mortgage was ~7 years we are still talking close to half the outstanding mortgages in this condition and their owners one missed paycheck from the cliff.
They're basing it on report from the Milkin Inst. Why does that make my skin crawl? Any research experts out there?
'Harvard University ranks first in terms of biotech research, as measured by papers and citations, followed by the University of Tokyo and University of London. U.S. universities hold eight of the top 10, and 28 of the top 40 positions. California universities hold five of the top 25 rankings; the UK and Japan hold three each.
Among U.S., Canadian and European universities, the United States leads in invention disclosures, patents filed and granted, licenses executed and licensing income. However, European universities surpass their U.S. counterparts in startups established.
In terms of job creation, the Amgens and Genentechs most differentiate the economic impact of U.S. university-based biotech commercialization that originates from universities in other nations.'
The type 1 peasants tend to have a one-sided relationship with an imaginary friend, who has promised them a good return on their investment...
There are quite a few, of course. I recommend Leinwand's book:
High Tide of the 1920s, Gerald Leinwand, Book - Barnes & Noble
I think the similarities are striking. I also think BB is totally useless despite this.
I have. The first appearance of the quote was in a Congressional Subcommittee Report in 1937, 111 years after Jefferson died. According to the OED the first usage of the word "deflation" in a currency context was in 1920.
The quote's been attributed to various supposed writings and pieces of correspondence, but if you actually look at those sources you won't find it anywhere. But each time one source is debunked a new one takes its place and the hoax lives on.
As a general rule of thumb, any time a famous dead man is quoted as saying something more relevant to our time than to his you should be suspicious.
so why is oil selling off right now? I thought all was peachy keen...DUG may have running room, possible double bottom bounce
Crude Oil Chart
Hack, I'll see if it's available from the library, (a government-run socialist program).
@ Yalt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 10:37 am
Yes indeed you have.
Then let's try this variation
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies..."
- Thomas Jefferson
creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 10:37 am
so why is oil selling off right now? I thought all was peachy keen...DUG may have running room, possible double bottom bounce
Crude Oil Chart
Technical. Failed test of $75 spooked the herd.
in a country in which over 50% of the population doesn't believe in evolution there will never be any discussion in body politic based on empirical evidence..Under those circumstances It makes it very easy for the TPTB to control the masses. After all reality can be dismissed. There was a reason Marx described religion as the opium of the masses.
People may have forgotten (or not known n the first place) the French revolution was also very anti-priest. They understood correctly that the church and TPTB forn an unholy alliance.
"Unreason and anti-intellectualism abominate thought. Thinking implies disagreement; and disagreement implies nonconformity; and nonconformity implies heresy; and heresy implies disloyalty — so, obviously, thinking must be stopped. But shouting is not a substitute for thinking and reason is not the subversion but the salvation of freedom."
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
So many christians, so few lions.
“That paper money has some advantages is admitted. But that its abuses also are inevitable and, by breaking up the measure of value, makes a lottery of all private property, cannot be denied.” ~ Thomas Jefferson ~Letter to Josephus B. Stuart, 1817
Re: The type 1 peasants
It's sad, though, that the type 2 peasant and their nobility are SO guilt-ridden that they can't stop trying to force their help on the type 1's - which just keeps pissing the type 1’s off more and more.
For example, why not a voluntary health-care plan that would have allowed the type 2’s to join and - assuming the type 1's would act as stupidly as they have in past – the type 1’s would have shunned it. They could all die in their doublewides, pissed off and armed to the teeth, without health care. THAT would have been a good health care plan.
BUT NO. The type 2's (the smothering mommy party) just cannot NOT try to include everybody. EVEN the very dumbasses thet hate them so much. It's pathetic.
you pay attention to the fibs?
Not really. I'm pretty much convinced that tech analysis is voodoo.
Which is not to say the herd doesn't bow down and worship it, so I know I ignore it at my peril.
So many christians, so few lions.
Who says the lions would win...
Re: in a country in which over 50% of the population doesn't believe in evolution
(Also from the previous pig)
Re: And then we wonder about the disappearing middle class
Good point, but - like the Merovingian said in the Matrix (something like) - WHY something happens is more important than what is happening, who is doing it, or where it's happening.
The dumbasses in PT's #1 are stuck in the dark-ages because their nobility can use the VERY simple manipulation phrase of:
Who likes evolution? LIBERALS. Who ELSE do those LIBERAL like? THOSE PEOPLE. YOU figure it out.
The biggest flaw (in your argument above) is to assume the peasants can actually think "rationally". Very few do. Most listen to propaganda from their own PT’s. And EQUALLY important, the dumbasses will reject "facts" coming from enemy PT's (your evolution "facts") when the dumbasses are told to do so by THEIR nobility.
So, until the PT's #2's & #4's figure-out a way to split-up (or humiliate) the PT's #1's dumbasses, they're screwed.
That one's not quite right either--"to our liberties" doesn't appear in the original. (There are some other minor alterations too but they don't change the sense so I'll let them pass.)
It's not a question of what Jefferson thought about banks--it's how you come off when you stuff words into the mouths of dead men to try to give more weight to your own opinion. Putting quotation marks around a quote that we've now established you already knew was spurious is bs.
Rob Dawg- in the earlier part of the thread we talking about the "responsible person" one who bought a house they could afford and didn't refinance to take money out or HELOC. I was simply making the argument that blame falls equally on the pusher (Wall Street) and the junky the borrower who thought they had sound the money tree.
In terms of the economy, look, I inherited a recession, I am ending on a recession." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., Jan. 12, 2009
Anyone wanna bet Obama will say something similar in 2012????
I saw people asking "who is hiring".
Well, I can tell you that at my place of employment we're going to be hiring at least 6-8 new people for Dev, BA, and QA positions in my office.
Those jobs start probably around $50k, and more depending on experience.
But it is merger related worked, so the long term prospects of the work are not good
I agree--the problem is that it's so often self-fulfilling voodoo.
People might be able to value this correctly if someone were to walk up and say, "Oh, well then, we'll just have to take those six years off the end of your life."
"Our nation stands at a fork in the political road. In one direction lies a land of slander and scare; the land of sly innuendo, the poison pen, the anonymous phone call and hustling, pushing, shoving; the land of smash and grab and anything to win."
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
how anyone can compare the US to Zimbabwe on any level is beyond me. Or the 1930's.
Did we just awake Walt Disney or are you just ignorant on purpose?...but I hope you were being /snark/,,,but I doubt it.
I'm pretty much convinced that tech analysis is voodoo.
agreed, but some seem (IMO) to be better than others
fibs seem pretty good to me (too many instances when they apply for coincidence)
but i do agree its a self reinforcing phenomenon
Re: Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
One of the LAST liberals in the '30's style. A distrust in established authority, intellectual, but a trust in the natural goodness of the peasants. He'd be a Green today. And, of course, be completelt irrelevant.
The Reagan type 1's humiliated the very WORD liberal out of existence. The type 2's and 4's STILL haven't recovered from that.
Who says the lions would win...
Not even die hard Detroit fans? Are there many left?
"I have learned that In quiet places, reason abounds, that in quiet people there is vision and purpose, that many things are revealed to the humble that are hidden from the great."
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
I understand but I'm uncomfortable with putting too much blame on the pushers. I'd say in order the responsibility lies in #1 regulators, #2 borrowers and only then #3 the lenders. I have a HELOC. Bought a foundation repair, roof, landscaping and a shed. Immediate ROI a theoretical 100-200% instant return. I did this because I paid so little for the property. IMO it would have been irresponsible to not HELOC and improve the house. Caveat Emptor is so freaking old it is quoted to this day in a dead language. It doesn't translate as "lender beware."
"How did it happen? How did our national government grow from a servant with sharply limited powers into a master with virtually unlimited power? In part, we were swindled. There are occasions when we have elevated men and political parties to power that promised to restore limited government and then proceeded, after their election, to expand the activities of government. But let us be honest with ourselves. Broken promises are not the major causes of our trouble. Kept promises are. All too often we have put men in office who have suggested spending a little more on this, a little more on that, who have proposed a new welfare program, who have thought of another variety of 'security.' We have taken the bait, preferring to put off to another day the recapture of freedom and the restoration of our constitutional system. We have gone the way of many a democratic society that has lost its freedom by persuading itself that if 'the people' rule, all is well." - Barry Goldwater
BTW, there are plenty of type 2 Christians. But, being overwhelmed with guilt they can't even hate the very people that stole their God from the imaginary (and infinitely powerful) and dragged it though the gutter of politics (rendering it subject to ridicule).
Type 2's just can't figure out humans, it's pathetic.
I had great hopes that Barack would emulate Adlai, but it fades a bit more with every passing day...
He strikes me as just another sycophant on the make, in D.C.
JD?
$500K profit after taxes? We sold last year and the cap gains was quite a hit. Sold at $1000 per sq ft and bought at $200 per sq ft.
Bought a new house as well as the family cabin from the rest of the family and still have a bunch in the bank. All this was a forced deal as the family wanted out of the cabin. We would have stayed put till the EMT's hauled us out feet first.
You can win the lottery and still not be happy.
hooray. thank you.
What irritates me about the spurious shit is that it always takes a lot longer to debunk than it takes to produce. A dishonest person can just keep piling it higher and higher, and thanks to internet anonymity there's not even a cost to his credibility.
This sort of thing is taking over public discourse in this country. I don't like it.
The American fascists are most easily recognized by their deliberate perversion of truth and fact. Their newspapers and propaganda carefully cultivate every fissure of disunity, every crack in the common front against fascism.
Henry Wallace 33rd VP...under Roosevelt.
more like Batista, with Jamie Dimon in the role of Meyer Lansky and GS as the chicago outfit
"When facism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."
Sinclair Lewis
fibs seem pretty good to me (too many instances when they apply for coincidence)
Except when they don't.
I've told this story before, but, about ten years ago, at a hedge fund I worked at, we were bored one summer, and coded up all the then-hot tech indicators.
Of course they all look good in the books, with a cherry-picked chart.
In the real world, across all stock across a large time horizon, they were basically noise-generators, nothing more.
Re: I had great hopes that Barack would emulate Adlai
People forget they elect the party, NOT the person. A party of nobility will do what's in the best interest of the nobility. Until the type 4's STOP voting Democratic nothing can change. Same goes with the type 3's who vote Republican waiting for "a small governemtn". (Of course, many type 4's are just racist old white males, but the rest could)
The type 1 & 2 dumbasses will BELEIVE forever, nothing you can do about them (OTHER than humiliting them enough that they might not vote).
We made just a bit more than $500k on our tract home, of which $500k was tax-free winnings.
It was the biggest no-brainer of my life...
Rob,
Is it better to be the servants of elected officials or the servants of unelected officials? Seems to me we are now the servants of unelected officials of too large to fail corporations.
YMMV
Blame for the bank failures belongs first and foremost with the banks. I spent a good chunk of my life underwriting and if a contract I underwrote failed it was nobody's fault but my own. Well, a single failure would just be bad luck but if a program had losses, that was me.
Lender beware is damn fine advice. Any bank that let the borrower underwrite his own loan deserved the losses they got. Ditto for the people that invested in those loans. It's like a retail business leaving their doors unlocked at night and then blaming the thiefs for their losses. Morally true, maybe, but in a business sense the blame is on themselves.
keep pluggin', shill. Your screen name is well chosen, btw. Congrats.
Juvenal D,
-- congrats, quite an admirable achievement these days.
"You will find that the truth is often unpopular and the contest between agreeable fancy and disagreeable fact is unequal. For, in the vernacular, we Americans are suckers for good news."
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
Re: When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross
Fascism IS the natural human party. The party of nobility. Worship of authority (Deity & King) and COUNTY FIRST (you betcha).
Takes ALLOT of work on the part of the type 2's & 4's to NOT let fascism happen. Usually, the only way to prevent it, is for the type 2's & 4's to have a minority party to counter a larger socialist party - with unions to manipulate dumbasses and keep their tiny brain occupied with "THE MAN". We lost that 40 years ago. Fascism is now inevitable.
Interesting and not so surprising. Has anyone done this more recently? The mix of traders has changed a bit over time (daytrading masses, computerized program trading, etc.) and I can imagine that if enough people were using an indicator it might at least temporarily be more than noise.
But I doubt that any single indicator has ever been so dominant and so unambivalent that its signal ever rose above the noise level.
So glad you made it, Hey Zeus C. Bernanke! But please don't stop. We need more of your pure, hedonistic pleasure for Wall Street. C'mon, your the one, the savior! Give em some luvin, some injectulation!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxA3atHD2QM
"There was a time when a fool and his money were soon parted, but now it happens to everybody."
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
Yalt now you're sounding like a arrogant assclown
Have you read this ?
Larry Flynt: Common Sense 2009
Larry Flynt: Common Sense 2009
YouTube - Spencer Davis Group - 'Gimme Some Lovin' Stereo Music Video
Lender beware is damn fine advice.
Can't you restate that as: The lender is a purchaser of debt; Caveat emptor!
OT
"obese People Have 'Severe Brain Degeneration"
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
"The United States has the highest percentage of obese and overweight population (64.5%)"
Choices Article - Obesity: Economic Dimensions of a "Super Size" Problem
Does that explain to some extent why we are taking this country straight to the dumpers? Just wondering aloud!
"There are worse things than losing an election; the worst thing is to lose one's convictions and not tell the people the truth."
(Responding to an assertion that his support for a ban on nuclear testing would probably cost him votes...)
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
We're due for a pig ...
But I doubt that any single indicator has ever been so dominant and so unambivalent that its signal ever rose above the noise level.
Right.
I mean, I have a few tech analysis sites in my daily RSS feed. They're second only to CNBC in their ability to speak out of both sides of their mouths.
Also, when tech analysis works, it's "TEH AWESOME". When it doesn't there's always an externality to blame ("It was opex", "It was a short squeeze", "There was a missile attack in Syria"). If the faults were assigned as often as the kudos, I'd be more inclined to listen.
It takes almost none. They are automated.
They aren't real loan, no credit checks or applications.
You borrow from yourself, and pay yourself interest.
“Just because it’s not fundamentally sound, doesn’t mean it’s not happening.” --Rick Santelli
Who was it here that was talking about the tennis-tournament approach to building a book of clients? You split your call list in half and make diametrically opposing predictions to each half. Then you do the same with the half of the list that you made the correct prediction to the first time...etc. After five straight good calls you've whittled your list of 100 down to about three really good clients who will buy absolutely anything you have to sell.
You split your call list in half and make diametrically opposing predictions to each half.
This is an age-old investment scam.
SNAFU (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 2:11 pm OT
So if fat people are 'always' jolly, and obese people have 'severe brain degeneration,' then it follows that [at least some] 'always jolly' people have severe brain damage, right?
I'm bored ... where's the pig?
Re: They aren't real loan, no credit checks or applications.
Yeah, NOW! But, we want to get the economy going again. THAT means we have turn it into a scam. How about 150% 401k loans! That's sounds like it would work.
Getting cured?
With interest deductibility!
I am moving to North Dakota.
the KING,
Heh, heh ... nice one, KING
Don't you have to repay your 401(k) loan in full if you lose your job? That'd have some nice macroeconomic feedback effects.
North Dakota is a good place to live because they have an Applebees there.
Re: Don't you have to repay your 401(k) loan in full if you lose your job
And we allow 401k's to "invest" in other people's 401k loans, creating your owned leveraged CDO.
I've spent some time in ND and all I can say is "Those poor bastards."
energyecon,
Today was the first day of school here ... I sent my kids off encased in lucite, just to be on the safe side.
Any forecasts w.r.t. the fall?
Re: am moving to North Dakota.
Bring something warm. And hip-boot for spring thaw.
Yancey Ward (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 11:24 am
I am moving to North Dakota.
You certainly won't be allowed to resettle until at least you learn to pronounce it correctly. Jeez, it ain' evn two wurds don't cha know? Nordakota.
if you are bored, here is some doomer stuff you might enjoy over @ minyanville
North Dakota is a good place to live because they have an Applebees there.
And you only have to drive 50 miles to get to it.
"Accuracy to a newspaper is what virtue is to a lady; but a newspaper can always print a retraction."
Adlai E. Stevenson, Jr.
nullpointer (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 1:50 pm
I'm pretty much convinced that tech analysis is voodoo.
agreed, but some seem (IMO) to be better than others
fibs seem pretty good to me (too many instances when they apply for coincidence)
but i do agree its a self reinforcing phenomenon
My recollection is that for years on Wall Street Week, Rukheiser's "elves" routinely matched or beat the value analysts and other, more cerebral stock pickers. But my recollection has been kinda flaky as I've grown older, so maybe I'm just misremembering it
Thanks, nullpointer. I always enjoy good wrist-slashing reading material.
Minyan Peter is my favorite ....
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 11:30 am
North Dakota is a good place to live because they have an Applebees there.
And you only have to drive 50 miles to get to it.
Only 50? Waddaya? A freakin' city dweller?
Here's a handy real estate site to help you pick out your new home.
GhostsOfNorthDakota.com
Re: Juvenal Delinquent
I always assumed (based on your ID) you were a young wipper-snapper. But, if you know who Adlai Stevenson is that means you are an old fart (like me).
The best thing about living now is we'll be dead before anything "bad" happens. So, regarding all this Fascism doom, I'd suggest 100 mg of Fucitol, it just don't matter now.
yalt-
that site rules - thanks.
Cinco,
]
We have a very troubling issue of heterodyne. "Success" get emulated and modeled. An aspect of that is increasingly shorter time horizons. Thus we end up with HFT and Flash Trading. A second order consequence is that the earluy models appear to work better as they are adopted. The FAIL is that the pushers don't live on the results but on the churn. [
dryfly, if you're still here, and I hope no one else is, I'm ashamed to say this but looking at that map with no state markings I did not believe my teen when she pointed out Minnesota. I said - no, I don't think Minnesota borders Canada.
Youch.
Edit: But then again, everything west of Pennsylvania is "over there".
Know what you mean, ours started school last week and she has a cough this morning...but that happens all the time, even when there is not a pandemic flu on the loose.
.
Well the CDC has been banging the drum pretty hard of late, my story is the same as it ever was - awareness and preparedness - though I do not have a hoard of antivirals, nor corticosteroids, I have ramped up foodstocks and water (which double up as hurricane preparedness as well living in Houston). Plus some masks, extra disinfection material etc - one thing to consider is how to take care of someone sick in the home while minimizing exposure for self and others...
.
The biggest risk is that should the projected levels of infection occur, the medical delivery system in some locales will be overwhelmed. The wild card is some kind of brain sucking zombie mutation (big uptick in lethality of virus). Any predictions? Hoping for something like the '57 story below:
Lessons From the Flu of '57: Pandemic Spread Quickly Among Young People - washingtonpost.com
Only 50? Waddaya? A freakin' city dweller?
LOL... well there is one about every 50 miles on I -94... at least in the eastern half. Ate a few of them. So fifty miles divided by two means you should only have to drive 25 miles... but I'll add another 25 off the highway to highway to bring it up to 50... that is of course each way. Good news is the speed limit is 70 mph plus whatever you think you can get away with [if you got Minnesota plates it won't be much - no love lost btwn Minnesota & No Dak].
You can get a loan on your 401k, not sure the payback time etc.
And as scary as it is, I think they will figure out a way to get that done, as soon as the banks can figure out a way to get the interest payments. Then people can spend it now and starve in retirement. Pretty much like they have done with HELOC, ARMs etc.
josap (profile) wrote on Tue, 8/25/2009 - 1:44 pm
You can get a loan on your 401k, not sure the payback time etc.
And as scary as it is, I think they will figure out a way to get that done, as soon as the banks can figure out a way to get the interest payments. Then people can spend it now and starve in retirement. Pretty much like they have done with HELOC, ARMs etc.
That, or going out in a blaze of glory after livin' like a gangsta for a few short and memorable years.
Isn't that what people did with thier HELOC funds? SUVs, Hummers, time shares in Costa Rica, Granit counter tops and refrigerators we used to see in resturants.
Same deal. Live large now, die broke.
nothing like a smashed hope to make you really angry. Unless there is a dramatic reversal in the economy or the Republicans are dumb enough to run somebody like Sarah Palin - Obama doesn't have a hope in hell of being re-elected. I suspect that there are many like me who will never forgive him for betraying and destroying our hope.
JD,
"We made just a bit more than $500k on our tract home, of which $500k was tax-free winnings.
It was the biggest no-brainer of my life..."
Congratulations!
I own another house that I rent out and really wish to be done with it. My problem was I didn't know where to put the proceeds from a sale. We also wanted to keep a "landing pad" for the kids who got transferred to the east coast. Even with the crash of prices locally this modest older house is unaffordable for 80% of our local population and that goes double for the kids.
Five years ago I thought housing prices were crazy and I should sell but held on due to sloth and general lazyness - most important a positive cash flow. That was a good decision as it would now sell for twice the price of 5 years ago. Like Mr Prince your have to dance while the music is playing. Who knows when the band will leave.
even better if you are hedge fund manager. Take your 20% plus 5% on the winning trades
NOTaREALmerican ,
Can you provide a link/description of the PT's (personality types?) you keep referencing? There was a test recently linked that had two scales : conservative ==> liberal and libertarian ==> authoritarian making a four square grid. Is this what you are referencing?
(I did try Google before asking.)
Jim
Bill,
Any comment on the fact that North Dakota is the only state in the green and the only state that has a public state owned bank since 1919?
A model Ca. should look at. Deposit all state revenues in the state bank and use the reserves to finance state needs. It has worked quite well for North Dakota... but me thinks Ca. legislators are too bought off by the banks to even consider it.
A well managed state bank (ie no Democrats, Republicans or Arnold within 100 miles of it...) could do Ca. some serious good.