cyberhomes now shows a low-end price of 1998 for my old home. If that turns out to be true then props to whoever was calling for 1996 real-prices for Bay Area real-estate.
define your view of 'Southeast' for the rest of us.
The old Confederacy may be a good description of boundaries. A lot of poverty, guns, and past bitterness. It was quieted or "shamed' back in the 60s, 70s, or 80s, but rest assured, it is alive and well--as in civil-rights-violating alive and well...
Less earnings and more market cap means bigger bubble, more Beta, more shares, higher P/E, lower earnings yield and better daytrading!!! It's still not too late to be buying failing banks in Arizona, Nevada, California, Florida and most of the West Coast and east Coast and parts in-between !! Buy now or be priced out!!!
Also from last thread, on the nature and definition of the south:
I grew up adjacent to the south (my neighborhood wasn't southern, but the one across the railroad tracks turned bike trail was) and I can assure you that there are plenty of people who don't need to be pushed into violent rebellion, they're just looking for a good excuse. Also, the poverty in some of the south is for more grinding than anything I've seen in California, even in the bad parts of the Central Valley... And don't get me started on race relations.
I like this from (Cambridge OH) Advantage Bank's SEC
June 2009, the FASB issued SFAS No. 168, The FASB Accounting Standards Codification and the Hierarchy of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles - a replacement of FASB Statement No. 162. The FASB Accounting Standards Codification (Codification) will become the source of authoritative U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) recognized by the FASB to be applied by nongovernmental entities. Rules and interpretive releases of the SEC under authority of federal securities laws are also sources of authoritative GAAP for SEC registrants. On the effective date of this Statement, the Codification will supersede all then-existing non-SEC accounting and reporting standards. All other non-grandfathered non-SEC accounting literature not included in the Codification will become non-authoritative. This Statement is effective for financial statements issued for interim and annual periods ending after September 15, 2009. The Corporation will comply with the requirements of the Statement beginning in the third quarter of 2009.
That's what the PT's #2's and 4's can't comprehend. The Europeans don't have semi-socialist governments because they don't have any PT's #1. Of course they do. But, the Europeans PT's #1 are too busy hating other European countries. This allows the PT's 2's and 4's to use nationalism to get their PT's 1's to "go along", ie: We'll THOSE FRENCH have [fill in the blank] so aren't we are a good as THEY are?
The US just doesn't have ANYBODY external worthy enough for our PT's #1 dumbasses to hate, so they hate each other.
The special Investigation task force has spoken in
Florida.
I skimmed it nothing new, except that one of the leading foreclosure firms owns
a service of process firm that charges exorbitant fees for service. I suspected
this was an inside job and now I know.
Task force has NO extra money to throw at problems.
I just did a post on California's unemployment situation, including comparing the state's 4.5 million population growth and nearly 0 job growth since 2001.
"The California State Teachers Retirement System (the country's second-largest public pension fund) gets a downgrade from Fitch, to AA+ from AAA, on a falling funding ratio." (marketwatch)
I just wanted clarification... I dated a girl whose father grew up south Alabama... he believed 'the north' started just outside Nashville... meanwhile Minnesotans are '100% certain' cities like St Louis & Louisville are southern through and through... i.e. opinions vary.
And it really doesn't matter, because the white PT's #1's "hold up" in their suburbs in St Louis would completely identify with their oppressed brethren in Birmingham AL.
The St Louisian would say: "If it just wasn't for what THOSE LIBERALS and THOSE PEOPLE did you our parents!". The Bamin would nod; "You Betcha".
"That fellow right there is going to his bank to make a deposit or make a withdrawal with total, absolute, unquestioned confidence in the banking system and the deposit insurance system and the protection of his deposits. That fellow right there has no idea that the absolute financial underpinnings of this industry were under siege. That fellow has no idea that at any given time in the war room, information would come in and we would sit around and say, we can’t do it—we don’t have the resources—we don’t have the people—we don’t have the money—we don’t have the logistics—we can’t handle his. But we did. We had people making decisions well above their level of authority. We had people making decisions well above their delegations of responsibility. We had people working weekends away from home, weeks and months at a time. We had people making decisions at 3:00 a.m., learning how to eat pizza for breakfast."
Most people think the recession is over. Good times ahead.
It's simpler than that. Credit easing IS bubble blowing.
The whole point of monetary policy is to stop people from saving and lending rationally and get them to make what would be irrational investments and spending decisions (i.e. bubbles) by making it too dangerous to save.
In order to create economic growth when no rational investment opportunities exist (due to excess capacity and credit), the government and Fed must resort to blowing bubbles.
Bubbles are being blown.
This will likely continue until the politicians and monetary authorities lose control of the situation.
Should be an interesting fall. I am still very concerned, but some of these news releases leave me scratching my head. Like everything else going on...it is very surreal.
After reading a bunch of Mish, I have a new way to think about money. Much of it blips into existence just as a result of credit.
We've destroyed sooo much credit, that money is being destroyed too, hence my wife coming home yesterday with a bunch of half price food... we have anecdotal deflation at the least, plus our energy costs are dropping too.
Hopefully our trade balance will continue to rise and we'll pull away from the abyss, but BB with his bubble creation is doing just that creating bubbles, not real money. To me a bubble collapses when people try to cash-out, because it's not real money.
I just wanted clarification... I dated a girl whose father grew up south Alabama... he believed 'the north' started just outside Nashville... meanwhile Minnesotans are '100% certain' cities like St Louis & Louisville are southern through and through... i.e. opinions vary.
I think I see what you mean, but I'm not sure if I would argue "opinions vary". Maybe in the same idea how "All X" look the same to Y folks.
Rest assured that St. Louis isn't "southeast". If they don't have a team in the SEC, they definitely aren't to be considered as part of the "Southeast", and AR didn't join the SEC 'til the 90s. Granted, the SE is familial stomping grounds for my clan, and there are parts that would question my right to that claim. As a side note, I've known people in deep MS or AL think of some Tennesseans as "not southern enough", but they wouldn't deny us our claim to the SE region.
Derivatives are bad (except when he uses them to long 5B on the market)
Government bailouts are bad (well bad now, but good in March when his financial empire was about to implode).
Invest in America cause we're great (except he's buying and investing abroad).
Wasn't this the typical Saturday morning for all the guys who went to college on this blog: Ask the sorority girl in your bed what her name is, get some more mutual satisfaction, send her on her way, crack a beer, and eat cold pizza?
Uncle Ben, I'l pull the fillings out of my teeth, personally cut my balls off and serve it all to you on a platter. Please just take my SRS at the discount window. 30%, 40% discount I don't care.
What I felt as I read teh Helicopter's remarks at Jackson Hole:
Like after a car crash, when people are walking around saying "I'm fine, I'm fine." But they're not fine, not really.
And the car is totalled, and someone can't find their cellphone, and someone else is crying softly by themselves, and someone else is still trying to change the CD.
Somehow, the Street read the same remarks, jumped in the with and away we go!
To the moon, Alice! To the moon! (AAATT)
See how he could raise men so quickly?
All of those men left, and many never returned.
.........................
I've read pretty copiously about Scottish history. I have ancestors from both sides of the 'enclosures' so it makes the history fairly personal. I also read anything relating to agricultural history in Britain as well as peasant economics. Lots of fascinating stuff to be gleaned....
I was poor. Worked through college. 3rd shift computer operator. Went to work at midnight, got off at 8:00, went to class, tried to say awake until the afternoon...zombie trance to bed...and then crash. Repeat. Pretty sure I was an experiment for someone somewhere in sleep deprivation and didn't know it.
Rest assured that St. Louis isn't "southeast". If they don't have a team in the SEC, they definitely aren't to be considered as part of the "Southeast", and AR didn't join the SEC 'til the 90s. Tongue Granted, the SE is familial stomping grounds for my clan, and there are parts that would question my right to that claim. As a side note, I've known people in deep MS or AL think of some Tennesseans as "not southern enough", but they wouldn't deny us our claim to the SE region.
yagij - its the same everywhere. I dated another gal [from eastern Montana] who though the Midwest ended at Chicago - every thing east of that was 'east coast'. My sister living in Ohio was dumbfounded... meanwhile my niece in NYC agreed that Chicago was the end of the Midwest except thought the Midwest was all EAST of Chicago [to say about Pittsburgh or Buffalo]... everything west of Chicago was 'the west'.
Cut to the New Yorker Magazine cover view of the world... same all over just from a different perch.
Citizen AllenM, I agree - I'm waiting for the other shoe at this point - or, the rational outcome after going out on this non-fundamental (IMO) bender.
Cut to the New Yorker Magazine cover view of the world... same all over just from a different perch.
................
Then there's me....anything that doesn't touch Puget Sound isn't really the pacific northwest
Despite nearly giving myself brain damage by trying to solve for the exponent, I did manage to figure out that we only need another 21 trading days at +2% to get back to the October '07 all time high. So we should be there by end of September at the very latest. Huzzah.
Multiply that by lower wages, scarcer jobs higher tuition and higher gas prices to get an idea of what people are going through today who are trying to do the same thing.
The wiki post reads like a summary of the W administration.
"Another way to look at bounded rationality is that, because decision-makers lack the ability and resources to arrive at the optimal solution, they instead apply their rationality only after having greatly simplified the choices available. Thus the decision-maker is a satisficer, one seeking a satisfactory solution rather than the optimal one.[2]"
"Is this administration a bunch of genius's, or WHAT?"
Call me a cynic if you will, but I'll go with your rather nebulously defined option B. It can't help but be more correct than the first proffered choice.
I'm not sure the markets were ever completely rational.
They most certainly are not. Markets are naturally prone to excesses and crazy behavior. But the worst excess and craziest behavior in modern times have always shown up in the following pattern:
1) Market goes to excess; assets become significantly overpriced.
2) Market begins to correct as enough rational participants become concerned and start selling.
3) Government sees that this correction threatens the economy and steps in with rate cuts and bailouts.
4) Super-ultra-incredible excesses ensue as rational market participants realize they can take unlimited risks due to government backstops.
5) A monster crash occurs once the government (or monetary authority) realizes what's going on and finally allows the correction to happen.
This occurred in 1927, 1998, 2001, 2007 and also in Japan during their bubble. ALL these bubbles were preceded by monetary easing and liquidity measures enacted by governments attempting to stop corrections/goose the markets.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:14 pm
Rest assured that St. Louis isn't "southeast". If they don't have a team in the SEC, they definitely aren't to be considered as part of the "Southeast", and AR didn't join the SEC 'til the 90s. Tongue Granted, the SE is familial stomping grounds for my clan, and there are parts that would question my right to that claim. As a side note, I've known people in deep MS or AL think of some Tennesseans as "not southern enough", but they wouldn't deny us our claim to the SE region.
Wouldn't you consider Texas part of the Southeast and the Old Confederacy? It's never had a team in the SEC-
"Gigerenzer instead proposes to examine simple alternatives to a full rationality analysis as a mechanism for decision making, and he and his colleagues have shown that such simple heuristics frequently lead to better decisions than the theoretically optimal procedure.
From a computational point of view, decision procedures can be encoded in algorithms and heuristics. Edward Tsang argues that the effective rationality of an agent is determined by its computational intelligence. Everything else being equal, an agent that has better algorithms and heuristics could make "more rational" (more optimal) decisions than one that has poorer heuristics and algorithms."
By implication, you could write a program to predict the market based on how humans actually behave in the markets, versus how the "rational actor" model says they ought to behave. Because, clearly, the "rational actor" model isn't working in times like these.
Another long winded article saying that: humans are governed by saved stories, stories created by the brain's bullshit-machine attempting to rationalize the current stories (the existing bullshit) with observed reality - this process creates more bullshit.
Decisions, therefore, are based on bullshit (and justified by more bullshit).
What we call consciousness is simply the ever-changing slide-show of bullshit (the saved stories) that we're currently aware of.
LOL. I wondered when Simon would show up in discussions here. H.A. Simon's notion of "bounded rationality" provides some real food for thought and he's one of the founding voices of the decision sciences.
Why don't you try getting long the market - please let me know when you do so I can take the other side.
Just kidding.
I've been watching from the sidelines -mostly- and can't fathom what is being used to keep stock prices moving higher. As some one else has said - it will likely end badly and I don't want any part of it.
IF one was really worried about swine flu...one would build a flu bunker with 3yrs worth of food and water right beside his other Armageddon bunkers...sort of like Baskin Robins 31 flavors of doom..
The more I wear my and the more and and and I have, the more I like what I see in the and care less and less about and , which makes me think the recession is over and that it's ok to be unemployed and , because -- this is a jobless recovery and the main activity is BFF.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 2:36 pm
Decisions, therefore, are based on bullshit (and justified by more bullshit).
What we call consciousness is simply the ever-changing slide-show of bullshit (the saved stories) that we're currently aware of.
Read a ton of this literature doing research in this field in grad school. What you say is pretty much what it boils down to. You could say I didn't find what I was looking for.
Wouldn't you consider Texas part of the Southeast and the Old Confederacy? It's never had a team in the SEC-
Are you a Texan who is serious asking that question? Most Texans I've met consider TX its own republic that willingly joined the Union and maintains its right to secede if it ever chooses to exercise that right.
"I've been watching from the sidelines -mostly- and can't fathom what is being used to keep stock prices moving higher. As some one else has said - it will likely end badly and I don't want any part of it."
Money is flowing from bonds to stocks and back over and over and over. Everytime we hit 4% on the tnx the market falls, everytime we get back down to around 3.5% it's pushed back into stocks. That and a bunch of late night targeted jam jobs in futures, forex etc..
Each time the market ends up being stepped up a few hundred points. Rinse and repeat.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:39 pm
Are you a Texan who is serious asking that question? Most Texans I've met consider TX its own republic that willingly joined the Union and maintains its right to secede if it ever chooses to exercise that right.
If you'd been reading all of the comments today, you'd know I'm a Bama fan (who curiously didn't realize that we don't play Vandy every year), and who's Dad was from a place that used to be part of The Free State of Winston in AL. Roll Tide. I know how Texans feel, but that doesn't change my view-
Does anyone have any ideas what might bring this market down?
Dollar crash causes the Fed to stop monetizing ... same thing that stops any central bank. Gotta have the currency crisis first though.
"The sales were made as the US treasury secretary was visiting Beijing to try to reassure the Chinese that their investment in his country's government debt is safe."
Money is flowing from bonds to stocks and back over and over and over. Everytime we hit 4% on the tnx the market falls, everytime we get back down to around 3.5% it's pushed back into stocks. That and a bunch of late night targeted jam jobs in futures, forex etc.. -- poic
I noticed that, too. Chasing return, on a planetary scale. That's why I don't really believe in a conspiracy theory. The money is acting like a massive amount of data moving through a badly coded software system. It's just running after short-term returns. Trying to make up for last year's crash. This isn't investing, it's just trading. An automated .
It seems to have stabilized. Starbucks has more people daily now showing up. I hear our company is starting to hire a few contractors again. My wife got a job in biotech again surprisingly easily. There appears to be a new lower volume norm now in everything.
As a native Texan...Citizen Allen is right....read about Sam Houston...people should have listened....of course after what he did to the French ambassadors, I can see why people might have stopped.
It's the only economic news that filters into the hoi ploys little minds a few times a day. They treat the news of the Big30 not unlike they would a professional sporting team's record, and in their minds, Wall*Street is on a 3 week winning streak.
Lesson here is don't fight the Fed. As others have posted, there is simple to much money at an institutional level that needs a home right now, and Fed participation in other markets has "forced" money into equities. Until that abates, or a black swan appears, that is not going to change. Unemployment, housing, etc. will not stop the unending upward march of this market.
1) Swine Flu - Low probability, might as well wait for the comet.
2) The reality that stocks have zero future value - Reality is overrated.
3) Helocopters - makes stocks go up (unless the glodless Commies panic).
4) Santa - Good probability.
5) ... some people - aren't enough people. REAL Mericans love bubbles.
She is sharp and I viewed entire 5:50. Whitney Says Bank Failures Will Rise to More Than 300 but she conveys some great points that you just don't get with mainstream MSM cheerleading and general pablum.
The sales were made as the US treasury secretary was visiting Beijing to try to reassure the Chinese that their investment in his country's government debt is safe.
LOL, thanks. An all-time favorite, with that unforgettable intro by Brian Eno. Damn fun song to sing as well. Later U2 is o.k. but The Joshua Tree is matchless.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:47 pm
Going Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay OT:
who curiously didn't realize that we don't play Vandy every year
Be thankful. There is nothing more embarrassing than losing to Vandy in football.
Didn't they share the SEC title...................once Hey, Northwestern won the Big 10 one year didn't they?
@Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 12:45 pm
"The sales were made as the US treasury secretary was visiting Beijing to try to reassure the Chinese that their investment in his country's government debt is safe."
Yup R-E-S-P-E-C-T for Timmy the 'water boy for Goldman Sucks' to the tune of about $25Billion
We are living in an extraordinary time, because stocks are highly overvalued now, but yet will likely go much higher, but in order to maintain order within society, the government will pump this stock bubble and synthetically inflate asset values to even greater unrealistic levels -- thus is it foolish to ignore the free ride (from taxpayers) and the possibility of obtaining wealth through government-backed speculation, or is one a fool to think that there is no free lunch and this game will fall apart, because the task of finding the great fools will become more difficult?
From wiki:
"Many individuals grew suddenly rich. A golden bait hung temptingly out before the people, and, one after the other, they rushed to the tulip marts, like flies around a honey-pot. Every one imagined that the passion for tulips would last for ever, and that the wealthy from every part of the world would send to Holland, and pay whatever prices were asked for them. The riches of Europe would be concentrated on the shores of the Zuyder Zee, and poverty banished from the favoured clime of Holland. Nobles, citizens, farmers, mechanics, seamen, footmen, maidservants, even chimney-sweeps and old clotheswomen, dabbled in tulips."
Winston (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:52 pm
As a friend of mine said about living in Houston: "It's not hell, but you can see it from there."
We got a fellow at work whose wife is from Houston; he hates it every time they go to visit her folks. All the humidity and heat of New Orleans, and none of the charm. (pre-Katrina)
"Later U2 is o.k. but The Joshua Tree is matchless"
Yes, one of the best of all time I think. Although I was very sick of it for a time after it came out, hearing it from every other dorm room window for an entire year.
careful on China selling treasuries. They buy a lot indirectly through the UK. UK purchases are up as much as Chinese are down. Michael Pettis talked a bit about this a few days ago.
At this point you probably have to accept a negative premium to get it sold. Probably cheaper to short and exercise, if you're worried about holding over the weekend.
People give Texas a bad rap...but I like it here. Lived all over, hubris is everywhere. At least when it is so exaggerated, you can cut through it faster. Now Texans claiming to have beaches though...I will admit...that is a little too much to take. Remember taking my wife (from California) to Galveston...she kept asking where the beach was....sad, just sad.
Uncle Ar (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 2:55 pm
"Later U2 is o.k. but The Joshua Tree is matchless"
Yes, one of the best of all time I think. Although I was very sick of it for a time after it came out, hearing it from every other dorm room window for an entire year.
I was like seven when it came out, so I didn't have much of a problem with media saturation of my young brain in the early days of empty-vee, though technically, I suppose, it was prior to the age of reason so I was propagandized. Somehow select bits of 80's music stuck with me all those years!
"No fear can stand up to hunger, no patience can wear it out, disgust simply does not exist where hunger is; and as to superstition, beliefs, and what you may call principles, they are less than chaff in a breeze. Don't you know the devilry of lingering starvation, its exasperating torment, its black thoughts, its sombre and brooding ferocity? Well I do. It takes a man all his inborn strength to fight hunger properly. It's really easier to face bereavement, dishonour, and the perdition of ones soul . . ." (113). Meaning in Heart of Darkness by Joseph Conrad
If we're talking about Bono's investments - the scam that Johnny R and his "Elevation Partners" pulled on EA shareholders was truly historic. Well played, boys.
Willard Ben: Everyone gets everything he wants. I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one. Brought it up to me like room service. It was a real choice mission, and when it was over, I never wanted another.
What is the lag time between a capital restoration plan and shutting the doors?
"Large loan losses and dwindling capital continue to plague community banks in Southwest Florida.
Peninsula Bank of Englewood said Monday it lost $12.84 million in the second quarter and has retained two investment banking firms to find fresh capital.
The parent of Horizon Bank of Bradenton admits that regulators consider it a "troubled bank" that must file a capital restoration plan by next week.
Both banks are now deemed "undercapitalized" as their losses have eaten into capital cushions."
Love U2 as well. I can't actually pick a favorite album. There are songs on each I like. Have to be in the mood though, then I do a U2 marathon. Musically, though I am still digging Radiohead right now. Besides my classical fix each day, I have to have some Radiohead. Then some Steely Dan to mellow out.
Resistance-see them this fall...its hard to explain...but getting 18000 people to sing as they were leaving the MGM concert venue and walking into the casino with some kind of peace aura around all of them was amazing...
have seen them 3 times, would see them any day, any time....
The latest statistics show that as little as 7.4 percent of all equipment in the power sector was replaced by 2007. Studies showed that half needed replacing and 15 percent was worn out beyond repair.
Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko has said it would cost 40 billion rubles ($1.2 billion) just to rebuild the damaged turbine room.
The death toll at Sayano-Shushenskaya is likely to rise with 28 workers still missing and Putin on Friday urged RusHydro, the owner of Sayano-Shushenskaya, to compensate the families of the dead. RusHydro has already pledged to pay 1 million rubles ($31,300) to the families of the dead. Putin promised to match the company's payouts with federal money.
Put me down for a market correction sooner rather than later.
In august they can 'extend and pretend' but come oct/nov they better start delivering the goods with a good Xmas. Not gonna happen. Xmas will be a dud (TPTB know it) unless Stimpack 2 makes an appearance. A correction (>15%) will provide political cover and an excuse for Summers to slide into Ben's seat.
"Earlier this week it came out that this year's deficit numbers would be reduced by about $262 billion. But bad news lon term. The Obama administration is upping its 10-year deficit forecast to $9 trillion from $7.9 trillion over the next two years. And of course they waited until end-of-market on Friday to do it, though we can't blame them for that"
Come on China, show the round eyes how this game is played, float the renminbi, dump your worthless US holdings
I have purchase requisition for one devil with horns icon, with maybe a few lightening bolts and some steam, maybe a few sparks and hints of hell fire.
Devil in details: U.S. government officials are aiming for September to decide once and for all how banks' capital reserves should reflect a tidal wave of securitized assets that are headed for their balance sheets. Asset Backed Alert - Asset Backed Securities - ABS Asset Backed Security
"As for other areas exposed to the new accounting guidelines, it doesn't look like treatment of commercial-paper conduits will change - meaning banks will have to continue holding capital against liquidity lines they write, but not the underlying portfolios. FASB's elimination of the QSPE designation dovetails with U.S. government implementation this year of its own version of Bank for International Settlements' New Basel Capital Accord, a set of risk-based capital-adequacy requirements also known as Basel 2. The U.S. blueprint typically sets more stringent requirements than the BIS rules".
I'm really too young for U2 (and I've heard every song in their catalog one time too many). These days my tastes lean toward indie rock. My band of the moment is Metric.
Counterpointer (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:12 pm
RiF - more like the next Jonestown. Waaay too much koolaid.
C
Ahh yes, but that's not the hook that'll put asses in seats... Bring us your tired, your poor, your highly-educated, your huddled masses of homedebtors yearning for a free lunch!
Hero worship is written by others, they are humble...they deliver hope more so than most....they actually have some great causes that they have spearheaded including debt reduction, aids, suii kyi imprisonment etc...
paul o neill sd of bono, I looked around and couldnt believe we were going to listen to this long haired rock star in jeans, when he was done speaking..I turned to guy in the seat next to me and said " this guy is pretty damn smart"
I'm a big fan of Metric and radiohead, although I hang in there with U2. I just missed seeing them at a little gig back in Denver before Red Rocks -- but they did play the set on the radio.....
The Bay Area still has a station that dedicates 2 hours a week to indie rock (live 105). However, the best way is go to shows of the bands you like and to talk to friends who have similar tastes. Last.fm is also an OK source for such things.
Steely Dan is a master of wit and satire. Musically they are okay, not quite my taste in everything...but the lyrics are divine. Decon Blues, Hey Nineteen, Do It Again...list goes on and on...and Fagen's solo work is just as good. I wish I had an ounce of that lyrical talent.
Piggy piggy,
piggy come take Guaranty Bank away!!
Six today!
Someday this war's gonna end...
Sigh.
Rats, almost locked you in.
What, my doggerel is that bad?
I'm throwing a big bubble party this weekend.
I keep turning on the TV and expecting to see Bush in the White House and Greenspan in the Fed.
cyberhomes now shows a low-end price of 1998 for my old home. If that turns out to be true then props to whoever was calling for 1996 real-prices for Bay Area real-estate.
On most nights you can still hear Bankwoe's ghost rattling chains up in the attic, only afraid of the wrath of Sheila.
That's it, Nova, I am programming my closer into an F-key.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Re: see Bush in the White House and Greenspan in the Fed.
expecting?
Let's just call them Prime Banks.
Last Thread:
define your view of 'Southeast' for the rest of us.
The old Confederacy may be a good description of boundaries. A lot of poverty, guns, and past bitterness. It was quieted or "shamed' back in the 60s, 70s, or 80s, but rest assured, it is alive and well--as in civil-rights-violating alive and well...
OT?
There are 15,000 homeless veterans.
In Los Angeles.
Many of them have convictions for drug possession.
"Prime Numbers" but not that kind?
Ok, let's look at my Doom-Dream Stocks:
http://screen.yahoo.com/b?im=^SPC&pe=30/&mc=10000000000/&beta=1/&peg=0.5/&b=1&z=beta&db=stocks&vw=1
Quotes for JPM, GOOG, WFC, ... - Yahoo! Finance
Less earnings and more market cap means bigger bubble, more Beta, more shares, higher P/E, lower earnings yield and better daytrading!!! It's still not too late to be buying failing banks in Arizona, Nevada, California, Florida and most of the West Coast and east Coast and parts in-between !! Buy now or be priced out!!!
Re: see Bush in the White House and Greenspan in the Fed.
expecting?
I see what you mean. I just didn't recognize Greenspan with that glorious glistening new beard.
Also from last thread, on the nature and definition of the south:
I grew up adjacent to the south (my neighborhood wasn't southern, but the one across the railroad tracks turned bike trail was) and I can assure you that there are plenty of people who don't need to be pushed into violent rebellion, they're just looking for a good excuse. Also, the poverty in some of the south is for more grinding than anything I've seen in California, even in the bad parts of the Central Valley... And don't get me started on race relations.
The SE strikes me as a fine place for the setting of the Dukes of Moral Hazard.
Wouldn't it be quicker just to print the membership list of the American Bankers Association .....
Somewhere the FDIC is ordering a lot of
Sorry. Nothing personal. Just feeling low grade evil
Will Jessica Simpson play Daisy?
"
Wouldn't it be quicker just to print the membership list of the American Bankers Association .....
Somewhere the FDIC is ordering a lot of Does the FDIC Order Anchovies?
"
I'm all for going green. Just print the list of safe banking institutions. That should be shorter than Paulson's original bailout bill.
It should be entertaining to see the asset writedowns after Guaranty is sold.
I like this from (Cambridge OH) Advantage Bank's SEC
June 2009, the FASB issued SFAS No. 168, The FASB Accounting Standards Codification and the Hierarchy of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles - a replacement of FASB Statement No. 162. The FASB Accounting Standards Codification (Codification) will become the source of authoritative U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) recognized by the FASB to be applied by nongovernmental entities. Rules and interpretive releases of the SEC under authority of federal securities laws are also sources of authoritative GAAP for SEC registrants. On the effective date of this Statement, the Codification will supersede all then-existing non-SEC accounting and reporting standards. All other non-grandfathered non-SEC accounting literature not included in the Codification will become non-authoritative. This Statement is effective for financial statements issued for interim and annual periods ending after September 15, 2009. The Corporation will comply with the requirements of the Statement beginning in the third quarter of 2009.
Damn, it's coming down on the DC border. Shoulda listened to Pavel earlier. There goes the bbq.
C
Happy BFF!
Cheers, Ken and Bill.
"Will Jessica Simpson play Daisy? "
I didn't know this movie was about the Special Olympics.
I didn't know this movie was about the Special Olympics.
It is set in the south.
Can you bank on a bank anymore?
Winston,
LOW BLOW!! hahahaha
I'll take a Bankers Dozen (13 of em') for BFF closure, full disclosure.
More hallucinating at the Atlanta Fed:
macroblog: How fast can the economy grow?
C
Re: I grew up adjacent to the south
That's what the PT's #2's and 4's can't comprehend. The Europeans don't have semi-socialist governments because they don't have any PT's #1. Of course they do. But, the Europeans PT's #1 are too busy hating other European countries. This allows the PT's 2's and 4's to use nationalism to get their PT's 1's to "go along", ie: We'll THOSE FRENCH have [fill in the blank] so aren't we are a good as THEY are?
The US just doesn't have ANYBODY external worthy enough for our PT's #1 dumbasses to hate, so they hate each other.
A Bankers Dozen is actually 2 because the other 10 were lost investing in CDOs.
cite>"I didn't know this movie was about the Special Olympics. "
Well it does star some "special" banks...
I'll take a Bankers Dozen (13 of em') for BFF closure, full disclosure.
A banker's dozen is 12.
Leveraged 33:1
Don't be cruller.
Joanna, to see the political fallout of Culloden, read this: Simon Fraser of Lovat - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
See how he could raise men so quickly?
All of those men left, and many never returned.
The pattern was being set in play by history- the enclosures were the last act.
Someday this war's gonna end...
The special Investigation task force has spoken in
Florida.
I skimmed it nothing new, except that one of the leading foreclosure firms owns
a service of process firm that charges exorbitant fees for service. I suspected
this was an inside job and now I know.
Task force has NO extra money to throw at problems.
Refreshing vacash, Juvie?
I just did a post on California's unemployment situation, including comparing the state's 4.5 million population growth and nearly 0 job growth since 2001.
California Unemployment Reaches 11.9%, 2000’s a “lost decade” for the state « Greg’s Law & Economics Blog
Why is the mkt goin
?
LL,
Still really tired from walking a ton, and couch blogging is just what the doctor ordered...
We had a great time, and saw lots of animals (4x rattlesnakes, a bear, bunch of deer, marmots, etc.)
Re: Why is the mkt
Most people think the recession is over. Good times ahead.
"The California State Teachers Retirement System (the country's second-largest public pension fund) gets a downgrade from Fitch, to AA+ from AAA, on a falling funding ratio." (marketwatch)
Makes sense yagij...
I just wanted clarification... I dated a girl whose father grew up south Alabama... he believed 'the north' started just outside Nashville... meanwhile Minnesotans are '100% certain' cities like St Louis & Louisville are southern through and through... i.e. opinions vary.
"The Southeast has always felt on the verge of going Mad Max to me."
The difference between Easy Rider and Mad Max is the misfit loners don't win at the end of Easy Rider.
This 90 degree chart pattern, where there is a large opening move, usually up, followed by a flat line is way too common to be random.
Yahoo! Finance - Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News
This is getting like the Matrix.
And, now it's SPACE JAM, brought to you by Helicopter Ben and his band of merry men!
OK, the market is now open for the day. And HeliBen says all's well. Let's see what
can do.
Re: opinions vary
And it really doesn't matter, because the white PT's #1's "hold up" in their suburbs in St Louis would completely identify with their oppressed brethren in Birmingham AL.
The St Louisian would say: "If it just wasn't for what THOSE LIBERALS and THOSE PEOPLE did you our parents!". The Bamin would nod; "You Betcha".
"That fellow right there is going to his bank to make a deposit or make a withdrawal with total, absolute, unquestioned confidence in the banking system and the deposit insurance system and the protection of his deposits. That fellow right there has no idea that the absolute financial underpinnings of this industry were under siege. That fellow has no idea that at any given time in the war room, information would come in and we would sit around and say, we can’t do it—we don’t have the resources—we don’t have the people—we don’t have the money—we don’t have the logistics—we can’t handle his. But we did. We had people making decisions well above their level of authority. We had people making decisions well above their delegations of responsibility. We had people working weekends away from home, weeks and months at a time. We had people making decisions at 3:00 a.m., learning how to eat pizza for breakfast."
-John Bovenzi, Director
Division of Resolutions and Receiverships, FDIC
Indeed, as Eric said, bring on the
(s)
(mainly waiting for the beginning of the Bank Failure Friday Festivities)
BlipBen strikes me as a much more apt nom de plague, for our man in DC.
Re: Why is the mkt
Most people think the recession is over. Good times ahead.
It's simpler than that. Credit easing IS bubble blowing.
The whole point of monetary policy is to stop people from saving and lending rationally and get them to make what would be irrational investments and spending decisions (i.e. bubbles) by making it too dangerous to save.
In order to create economic growth when no rational investment opportunities exist (due to excess capacity and credit), the government and Fed must resort to blowing bubbles.
Bubbles are being blown.
This will likely continue until the politicians and monetary authorities lose control of the situation.
"And, now it's SPACE JAM, brought to you by Helicopter Ben and his band of merry men! "
Man they didn't even wait till the bond market closed. Opex, bond market hasn't closed yet, better get my depends on this one could be nasty.
usage: "BlipBen"
He's out of his BlipBen mind if he thinks anybody believes this pre-recovery premature market jackulaton
Sure this will work...
CDC to College Students: Smooch With Surgical Masks to Curb Swine Flu
and more doom:
WHO Predicts 'Explosion' of H1N1 Flu Cases
Should be an interesting fall. I am still very concerned, but some of these news releases leave me scratching my head. Like everything else going on...it is very surreal.
Headline right now on CNBC:
Elmo feels your pain
Re: BlipBen strikes me as a much more apt nom de plague
NAAA! Beard! Robe! Wise! Gotta be Obi-Ben. Save us Obi-Ben Bernoki, you're our only hope.
And, he HAS!
Learning how to eat pizza for breakfast? Didn't these people go to college? No wonder...
People are not playing ball.
After reading a bunch of Mish, I have a new way to think about money. Much of it blips into existence just as a result of credit.
We've destroyed sooo much credit, that money is being destroyed too, hence my wife coming home yesterday with a bunch of half price food... we have anecdotal deflation at the least, plus our energy costs are dropping too.
Hopefully our trade balance will continue to rise and we'll pull away from the abyss, but BB with his bubble creation is doing just that creating bubbles, not real money. To me a bubble collapses when people try to cash-out, because it's not real money.
I just wanted clarification... I dated a girl whose father grew up south Alabama... he believed 'the north' started just outside Nashville... meanwhile Minnesotans are '100% certain' cities like St Louis & Louisville are southern through and through... i.e. opinions vary.
I think I see what you mean, but I'm not sure if I would argue "opinions vary". Maybe in the same idea how "All X" look the same to Y folks.
Rest assured that St. Louis isn't "southeast". If they don't have a team in the SEC, they definitely aren't to be considered as part of the "Southeast", and AR didn't join the SEC 'til the 90s.
Granted, the SE is familial stomping grounds for my clan, and there are parts that would question my right to that claim. As a side note, I've known people in deep MS or AL think of some Tennesseans as "not southern enough", but they wouldn't deny us our claim to the SE region.
Do they serve cold pizza for breakfast in Ivy League schools...I thought the butler brought a traditional breakfast in bed at 10:00am.
"Headline right now on CNBC:
Elmo feels your pain"
Maybe they can bring Warren Buffet onto the show.
He can tell them all about how:
Derivatives are bad (except when he uses them to long 5B on the market)
Government bailouts are bad (well bad now, but good in March when his financial empire was about to implode).
Invest in America cause we're great (except he's buying and investing abroad).
It strikes me that Ben Bernanke and Hamid Karzai are the same people.
Anybody else notice this?
Up, up and away..... in my beautiful
Super kermit, catching all those short gamma players and bending them over.
That is 100% pure glod.
Someone frisk Ben and see if he has the hat...then we will know for sure JD.
lol, here we go, 15 minutes early
Wasn't this the typical Saturday morning for all the guys who went to college on this blog: Ask the sorority girl in your bed what her name is, get some more mutual satisfaction, send her on her way, crack a beer, and eat cold pizza?
Uncle Ben, I'l pull the fillings out of my teeth, personally cut my balls off and serve it all to you on a platter. Please just take my SRS at the discount window. 30%, 40% discount I don't care.
Wow... just... Wow.
Re: Wasn't this the typical Saturday morning for all the guys
For me, 100% accurate, except for the girl part.
(Edit: except for the extra body, part).
Nope...had to be at work at 6:30 am every Saturday; then had 9am class.
What I felt as I read teh Helicopter's remarks at Jackson Hole:
Like after a car crash, when people are walking around saying "I'm fine, I'm fine." But they're not fine, not really.
And the car is totalled, and someone can't find their cellphone, and someone else is crying softly by themselves, and someone else is still trying to change the CD.
Somehow, the Street read the same remarks, jumped in the
with 
and away we go!
To the moon, Alice! To the moon! (AAATT)
"not southern enough"
Odd insight about my part of "The South":
Southern genteel women tend to take more pride being a member of the Daughters of the American Revolution.
Southern genteel men definitely take more pride being a member of the Sons of Confederate Veterans.
YouTube - David Bowie's "Space Oddity"
Ahhh, just got an email- deal for the print I want- $200 for what was $1500 retail.
Now I just have to pick it up next week.
I have begun to think the market is going to shoot 10k again, and then drop.
The drop is going to be a killer, with everyone going through denial and panic all over again.
Or the Feds really have put the Bernanke put back in play, in which case, buy now or be priced out forever;-}
Someday this war's gonna end...
Yalt: Saturday class ... Purdue?
Joanna, to see the political fallout of Culloden, read this: Simon Fraser of Lovat - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
See how he could raise men so quickly?
All of those men left, and many never returned.
.........................
I've read pretty copiously about Scottish history. I have ancestors from both sides of the 'enclosures' so it makes the history fairly personal. I also read anything relating to agricultural history in Britain as well as peasant economics. Lots of fascinating stuff to be gleaned....
I was poor. Worked through college. 3rd shift computer operator. Went to work at midnight, got off at 8:00, went to class, tried to say awake until the afternoon...zombie trance to bed...and then crash. Repeat. Pretty sure I was an experiment for someone somewhere in sleep deprivation and didn't know it.
Rest assured that St. Louis isn't "southeast". If they don't have a team in the SEC, they definitely aren't to be considered as part of the "Southeast", and AR didn't join the SEC 'til the 90s. Tongue Granted, the SE is familial stomping grounds for my clan, and there are parts that would question my right to that claim. As a side note, I've known people in deep MS or AL think of some Tennesseans as "not southern enough", but they wouldn't deny us our claim to the SE region.
yagij - its the same everywhere. I dated another gal [from eastern Montana] who though the Midwest ended at Chicago - every thing east of that was 'east coast'. My sister living in Ohio was dumbfounded... meanwhile my niece in NYC agreed that Chicago was the end of the Midwest except thought the Midwest was all EAST of Chicago [to say about Pittsburgh or Buffalo]... everything west of Chicago was 'the west'.
Cut to the New Yorker Magazine cover view of the world... same all over just from a different perch.
timmay is turning into an apt tape painter, for sure
Citizen AllenM, I agree - I'm waiting for the other shoe at this point - or, the rational outcome after going out on this non-fundamental (IMO) bender.
Cut to the New Yorker Magazine cover view of the world... same all over just from a different perch.
................
Then there's me....anything that doesn't touch Puget Sound isn't really the pacific northwest
Despite nearly giving myself brain damage by trying to solve for the exponent, I did manage to figure out that we only need another 21 trading days at +2% to get back to the October '07 all time high. So we should be there by end of September at the very latest. Huzzah.
same all over just from a different perch.
Son, if you disagree with my SEC defines the SE, then you might as well just be a "d*mn yankee" or "carpetbagger". Definitely aren't one of us.
vonbeck 777
Multiply that by lower wages, scarcer jobs higher tuition and higher gas prices to get an idea of what people are going through today who are trying to do the same thing.
I'm not sure the markets were ever completely rational. I like this idea of "bounded rationality:"
Bounded rationality - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Re: October '07 all time high
Is this administration a bunch of genius's, or WHAT?
Re: H1N1, CDC early release:
Use of Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Monovalent Vaccine
The wiki post reads like a summary of the W administration.
"Another way to look at bounded rationality is that, because decision-makers lack the ability and resources to arrive at the optimal solution, they instead apply their rationality only after having greatly simplified the choices available. Thus the decision-maker is a satisficer, one seeking a satisfactory solution rather than the optimal one.[2]"
"Is this administration a bunch of genius's, or WHAT?"
Call me a cynic if you will, but I'll go with your rather nebulously defined option B. It can't help but be more correct than the first proffered choice.
If one was really worried about the outbreak of the flu, why not just head south for the summer to NZ/Australia, South Africa or Argentina?
"Thus the decision-maker is a satisficer, one seeking a satisfactory solution rather than the optimal one.[2]"
No doubt that's Shrub-speak. I think I'll let my wife know that she should henceforth refer to me as "The Satisficer."
Darn it, we need some volume on the OTC market... I have shares for sale, and no one is hitting my price!
Krispy Kreme Doughnuts as a Model for TARP
KKD: Basic Chart for KRISPY KREME DOUGHNT - Yahoo! Finance
TARP simply needs to follow KKD's cutting edge EPS growth path: "Kool Kreme is a line of soft serve vanilla and chocolate with sundae toppings."
Tim,
I hear you. I think the shine of a college education is wearing off. America no longer land of the free, just land of the hoop jumpers...
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:01 pm
Makes sense yagij...
I just wanted clarification... I dated a girl whose father grew up south Alabama...
This was in AL:
Republic of Winston - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
My Dad's hometown was once part of this area, but no more-
I'm not sure the markets were ever completely rational.
They most certainly are not. Markets are naturally prone to excesses and crazy behavior. But the worst excess and craziest behavior in modern times have always shown up in the following pattern:
1) Market goes to excess; assets become significantly overpriced.
2) Market begins to correct as enough rational participants become concerned and start selling.
3) Government sees that this correction threatens the economy and steps in with rate cuts and bailouts.
4) Super-ultra-incredible excesses ensue as rational market participants realize they can take unlimited risks due to government backstops.
5) A monster crash occurs once the government (or monetary authority) realizes what's going on and finally allows the correction to happen.
This occurred in 1927, 1998, 2001, 2007 and also in Japan during their bubble. ALL these bubbles were preceded by monetary easing and liquidity measures enacted by governments attempting to stop corrections/goose the markets.
Does anyone have any ideas what might bring this market down?
It's getting ridiculous.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:14 pm
Rest assured that St. Louis isn't "southeast". If they don't have a team in the SEC, they definitely aren't to be considered as part of the "Southeast", and AR didn't join the SEC 'til the 90s. Tongue Granted, the SE is familial stomping grounds for my clan, and there are parts that would question my right to that claim. As a side note, I've known people in deep MS or AL think of some Tennesseans as "not southern enough", but they wouldn't deny us our claim to the SE region.
Wouldn't you consider Texas part of the Southeast and the Old Confederacy? It's never had a team in the SEC-
Oberlin.
This is the part that intrigues me:
"Gigerenzer instead proposes to examine simple alternatives to a full rationality analysis as a mechanism for decision making, and he and his colleagues have shown that such simple heuristics frequently lead to better decisions than the theoretically optimal procedure.
From a computational point of view, decision procedures can be encoded in algorithms and heuristics. Edward Tsang argues that the effective rationality of an agent is determined by its computational intelligence. Everything else being equal, an agent that has better algorithms and heuristics could make "more rational" (more optimal) decisions than one that has poorer heuristics and algorithms."
By implication, you could write a program to predict the market based on how humans actually behave in the markets, versus how the "rational actor" model says they ought to behave. Because, clearly, the "rational actor" model isn't working in times like these.
This was in AL:
Republic of Winston - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
My Dad's hometown was once part of this area, but no more-
See also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jones_County,_Mississippi
There were many areas that did not agree with fighting the rich landowners' war.
Even the bulls say a 10% correction is imminent, or so I read earlier. What happens if they all decide to get out just before the drop?
Re: Thus the decision-maker is a satisficer
Another long winded article saying that: humans are governed by saved stories, stories created by the brain's bullshit-machine attempting to rationalize the current stories (the existing bullshit) with observed reality - this process creates more bullshit.
Decisions, therefore, are based on bullshit (and justified by more bullshit).
What we call consciousness is simply the ever-changing slide-show of bullshit (the saved stories) that we're currently aware of.
Three guesses: (1) a Middle East war, (2) a terrorist attack in the US, or (3) everyone starts to read CR and comes to their senses.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 2:26 pm
I'm not sure the markets were ever completely rational. I like this idea of "bounded rationality:"
Bounded rationality - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
LOL. I wondered when Simon would show up in discussions here. H.A. Simon's notion of "bounded rationality" provides some real food for thought and he's one of the founding voices of the decision sciences.
ac, one
for you for your astute (and sadly funny, in an ironic way) analysis!
As old Ed McMahon used to say, "You are correct, sir!"
Re; What happens if they all decide to get out just before the drop?
It would be MORE than a 10% drop then.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:25 pm
same all over just from a different perch.
Son, if you disagree with my SEC defines the SE, then you might as well just be a "d*mn yankee" or "carpetbagger". Definitely aren't one of us. Tongue
Boy, I'm kin to Jeff Davis and Jesse James (on my Mom's side), and I say Texas fits the bill. Don't make me open up a can a whoop@$$ on ya'.
Terry Et Al
Next shoe to drop someone big sells.
Someday soon, we are gonna miss all the bullshit we had become so accustomed to hearing...
Wonder if Shelia has called Timmy asking him to send over some cash yet?
A college friend of mine did his grad school at Wharton--on his first day as a TA the students asked him where he'd gone to school.
"Ohio. Is that one of those square states out West?"
Why don't you try getting long the market - please let me know when you do so I can take the other side.
Just kidding.
I've been watching from the sidelines -mostly- and can't fathom what is being used to keep stock prices moving higher. As some one else has said - it will likely end badly and I don't want any part of it.
Does anyone have any ideas what might bring this market down?
More people willing to sell than to buy?
IF one was really worried about swine flu...one would build a flu bunker with 3yrs worth of food and water right beside his other Armageddon bunkers...sort of like Baskin Robins 31 flavors of doom..
Even the bulls say a 10% correction is imminent, or so I read earlier. What happens if they all decide to get out just before the drop? - DrM
A certain breathtaking circularity....
The more I wear my
and the more 
and 
and 
and 
I have, the more I like what I see in the 
and care less and less about 
and 
, which makes me think the recession is over and that it's ok to be unemployed and 
, because -- this is a jobless recovery and the main activity is BFF.
"Does anyone have any ideas what might bring this market down?"
The only way to trade this market is to take a cue from Opposite George.
YouTube -
"My name is George, I'm unemployed and I live with my parents."
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 2:36 pm
Decisions, therefore, are based on bullshit (and justified by more bullshit).
What we call consciousness is simply the ever-changing slide-show of bullshit (the saved stories) that we're currently aware of.
Read a ton of this literature doing research in this field in grad school. What you say is pretty much what it boils down to. You could say I didn't find what I was looking for.
Wouldn't you consider Texas part of the Southeast and the Old Confederacy? It's never had a team in the SEC-
Are you a Texan who is serious asking that question? Most Texans I've met consider TX its own republic that willingly joined the Union and maintains its right to secede if it ever chooses to exercise that right.
And even if it was a part of the Confederacy, no, it has never be considered a part of the SE. You are SW if you aren't your own "country".
See: Southwest Conference - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This market has the feel of the NDX in early 2000 to it.
Texas is a vast sea of nothing surrounded.
The only way to trade this market is to take a cue from Opposite George.
Nah, Goldman's got the computers rigged to look for that, and fuck you anyway.
Who said "don't fight the ticker" in an previous thread? That's my idea. With my finger on the sell button. Doesn't mean I'm not scared shitless.
Mike The valuations are in line with 2000 bubble at least on the SP500
And ahm kin to Old Paint, and most of them that fought that dang fool war were mighty pissed at the fools that brought them into it.
Look at how shabby Sam Houston was treated, and he was right.
Texas should never joined that dang fool enterprise.
Someday this war's gonna end...
ac, one
for you for your astute (and sadly funny, in an ironic way) analysis!
As old Ed McMahon used to say, "You are correct, sir!"
Wahhhhhhhhhh!!! I want a unicorn!!!
\
"Nah, Goldman's got the computers rigged to look for that, and fuck you anyway."
You now owe me a computer monitor that does not currently have coffee dripping from it.
"I've been watching from the sidelines -mostly- and can't fathom what is being used to keep stock prices moving higher. As some one else has said - it will likely end badly and I don't want any part of it."
Money is flowing from bonds to stocks and back over and over and over. Everytime we hit 4% on the tnx the market falls, everytime we get back down to around 3.5% it's pushed back into stocks. That and a bunch of late night targeted jam jobs in futures, forex etc..
Each time the market ends up being stepped up a few hundred points. Rinse and repeat.
Bummer you had to work all the time to pay your way through college. Admirable, but a bummer. Missed out on the perks.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:39 pm
Are you a Texan who is serious asking that question? Most Texans I've met consider TX its own republic that willingly joined the Union and maintains its right to secede if it ever chooses to exercise that right.
And even if it was a part of the Confederacy, no, it has never be considered a part of the SE.
See: Southwest Conference - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia /college_football_snob
If you'd been reading all of the comments today, you'd know I'm a Bama fan (who curiously didn't realize that we don't play Vandy every year), and who's Dad was from a place that used to be part of The Free State of Winston in AL. Roll Tide. I know how Texans feel, but that doesn't change my view-
Resistance, this one's for you:
YouTube - U2 - I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
Does anyone have any ideas what might bring this market down?
I'll just leave this story about China reducing its dollar holdings here...
BBC NEWS | Business | China reduces holdings in US debt
poic
How's the eCONomy doing in the South bay?
The faster the fake recovery, the faster the next crash will be!
Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:41 pm
And ahm kin to Old Paint, and most of them that fought that dang fool war were mighty pissed at the fools that brought them into it.
Look at how shabby Sam Houston was treated, and he was right.
Texas should never joined that dang fool enterprise.
I didn't say Texans were smart, just that they were part of the Southeast
Does anyone have any ideas what might bring this market down?
Dollar crash causes the Fed to stop monetizing ... same thing that stops any central bank. Gotta have the currency crisis first though.
Just a reminder that the #1 Premium BFF Poll is still open at the Polls Link.
"The sales were made as the US treasury secretary was visiting Beijing to try to reassure the Chinese that their investment in his country's government debt is safe."
R-E-S-P-E-C-T
Texas should become five states. Just for fun. 54 stars on the flag.
Money is flowing from bonds to stocks and back over and over and over. Everytime we hit 4% on the tnx the market falls, everytime we get back down to around 3.5% it's pushed back into stocks. That and a bunch of late night targeted jam jobs in futures, forex etc.. -- poic
I noticed that, too. Chasing return, on a planetary scale. That's why I don't really believe in a conspiracy theory. The money is acting like a massive amount of data moving through a badly coded software system. It's just running after short-term returns. Trying to make up for last year's crash. This isn't investing, it's just trading. An automated
.
"
poic
How's the eCONomy doing in the South bay?"
It seems to have stabilized. Starbucks has more people daily now showing up. I hear our company is starting to hire a few contractors again. My wife got a job in biotech again surprisingly easily. There appears to be a new lower volume norm now in everything.
As a native Texan...Citizen Allen is right....read about Sam Houston...people should have listened....of course after what he did to the French ambassadors, I can see why people might have stopped.
It's just a big psych move, the DJIA.
It's the only economic news that filters into the hoi ploys little minds a few times a day. They treat the news of the Big30 not unlike they would a professional sporting team's record, and in their minds, Wall*Street is on a 3 week winning streak.
They really don't know any better...
Lesson here is don't fight the Fed. As others have posted, there is simple to much money at an institutional level that needs a home right now, and Fed participation in other markets has "forced" money into equities. Until that abates, or a black swan appears, that is not going to change. Unemployment, housing, etc. will not stop the unending upward march of this market.
1) Swine Flu - Low probability, might as well wait for the comet.
2) The reality that stocks have zero future value - Reality is overrated.
3) Helocopters - makes stocks go up (unless the glodless Commies panic).
4) Santa - Good probability.
5) ... some people - aren't enough people. REAL Mericans love bubbles.
Going Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay OT:
who curiously didn't realize that we don't play Vandy every year
Be thankful. There is nothing more embarrassing than losing to Vandy in football.
Wasn't that bad--I had Sunday morning instead.
Poic Thanks
Small Pharma or Big Pharma?
Gotta have the currency crisis first though.
Let's not rush that. I say take some time out to enjoy some
Ten senators from Texas? You can't be serious.
Aug. 21 Bloomberg interview with Meredith Whitney
YouTube - Whitney Says Bank Failures Will Rise to More Than 300
She is sharp and I viewed entire 5:50. Whitney Says Bank Failures Will Rise to More Than 300 but she conveys some great points that you just don't get with mainstream MSM cheerleading and general pablum.
careful with those commodity ETFs
Fraud is being unwound.
The sales were made as the US treasury secretary was visiting Beijing to try to reassure the Chinese that their investment in his country's government debt is safe.
Wanna sell my GLD so bad but underwater.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:47 pm
a native Texan.
My condolences.
Re: Starbucks has more people daily now showing up
Can't get more green-shoots than THAT.
Re: appears to be a new lower volume norm now in everything.
That's all it will take for the peasants to start spending that "savings" they accumulated.
Uncle Ar (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 2:42 pm
Resistance, this one's for you:
YouTube - U2 - I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For
LOL, thanks. An all-time favorite, with that unforgettable intro by Brian Eno. Damn fun song to sing as well. Later U2 is o.k. but The Joshua Tree is matchless.
"Small Pharma or Big Pharma? "
400 person biotech. They have a few genetic tests for the efficacy of various cancer treatments.
As a friend of mine said about living in Houston: "It's not hell, but you can see it from there."
I have trouble taking people with two first names for a name seriously unless they are pretty.
Well, another absolute jam up into options expiration scraping the shorts to the bone.
Now, all of the folks exercising on calls will have some stock on Monday.
Now, watch CNBC switch on a dime as the market changes it's mind.
Gee, does Maria look casual or what? (Insert inappropriate comment about nsc).
Longs should be happy!!
Someday this war's gonna end...
U2 is good, but right now I'm more in the mood for:
YouTube - R.E.M. - It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I...
In June, China cut its holdings of US securities by about $25bn, a fall of 3.1%.
Reminds me of the top of the roller coaster... Slow then Newton takes over.
yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:47 pm
Going Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay OT:
who curiously didn't realize that we don't play Vandy every year
Be thankful. There is nothing more embarrassing than losing to Vandy in football.
Hey, Northwestern won the Big 10 one year didn't they?
Didn't they share the SEC title...................once
Now, all of the folks exercising on calls will have some stock on Monday.
You can just sell the call right now, you don't have to hold the stock over the weekend.
@Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 12:45 pm
"The sales were made as the US treasury secretary was visiting Beijing to try to reassure the Chinese that their investment in his country's government debt is safe."
Yup R-E-S-P-E-C-T for Timmy the 'water boy for Goldman Sucks' to the tune of about $25Billion
BB has spoon-fed us pablum, can we please have some other dish?
We are living in an extraordinary time, because stocks are highly overvalued now, but yet will likely go much higher, but in order to maintain order within society, the government will pump this stock bubble and synthetically inflate asset values to even greater unrealistic levels -- thus is it foolish to ignore the free ride (from taxpayers) and the possibility of obtaining wealth through government-backed speculation, or is one a fool to think that there is no free lunch and this game will fall apart, because the task of finding the great fools will become more difficult?
"Many individuals grew suddenly rich. A golden bait hung temptingly out before the people, and, one after the other, they rushed to the tulip marts, like flies around a honey-pot. Every one imagined that the passion for tulips would last for ever, and that the wealthy from every part of the world would send to Holland, and pay whatever prices were asked for them. The riches of Europe would be concentrated on the shores of the Zuyder Zee, and poverty banished from the favoured clime of Holland. Nobles, citizens, farmers, mechanics, seamen, footmen, maidservants, even chimney-sweeps and old clotheswomen, dabbled in tulips."
Wow, 7, 10, and long bond blowing out.
C
I have trouble taking people with two first names for a name seriously unless they are pretty.
Clark Kent? Bruce Wayne?
"In June, China cut its holdings of US securities by about $25bn, a fall of 3.1%. "
And in July, Russia added 600,000 ounces of Glod to their reserves....
Winston (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:52 pm
As a friend of mine said about living in Houston: "It's not hell, but you can see it from there."
We got a fellow at work whose wife is from Houston; he hates it every time they go to visit her folks. All the humidity and heat of New Orleans, and none of the charm. (pre-Katrina)
"Later U2 is o.k. but The Joshua Tree is matchless"
Yes, one of the best of all time I think. Although I was very sick of it for a time after it came out, hearing it from every other dorm room window for an entire year.
careful on China selling treasuries. They buy a lot indirectly through the UK. UK purchases are up as much as Chinese are down. Michael Pettis talked a bit about this a few days ago.
At this point you probably have to accept a negative premium to get it sold. Probably cheaper to short and exercise, if you're worried about holding over the weekend.
BFF: I'll have
with anchovies of course.
Do you think they are pretty?
People give Texas a bad rap...but I like it here. Lived all over, hubris is everywhere. At least when it is so exaggerated, you can cut through it faster. Now Texans claiming to have beaches though...I will admit...that is a little too much to take. Remember taking my wife (from California) to Galveston...she kept asking where the beach was....sad, just sad.
Ok, HAL, bring'er in nice and easy on 9,500 DJ. Window dress the defensives down. Yep, nice and ...
C
Well, almost pulled the trigger on a Sep 103/108 bear call spread. But didn't.
That should mean SP 900 on Monday.
"All the humidity and heat of New Orleans, and none of the charm. (pre-Katrina)"
Plus, with apologies to Col. Kilgore: "I love the smell of a refinery (or several) in the morning. Smells like... victory"
Clark Kent? Bruce Wayne?
Bubbles Ben?
Here's a chart of consumer debt:
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/uploads/Charts-2009-08/2009-08-07Credit1.png
Wasn't someone looking for this yesterday?
Bonds hate
Besides, gotta raise cash to chase the S&P.
Winston, another classic album....the eighties weren't all bad. Definitely REM's peak.
Easy, HAL, nice and easy, ignore the cross-wind, 3, 2, 1 ...
C
Wasn't someone looking for this yesterday? - C
Obviously not. It's just not about fundamentals right now.
Resistance is fuedal..
Later U2 is o.k. but The Joshua Tree is matchless.
have to disagree as Achtung baby and atomic bombs were great...
U2 is one band everyone needs to see live...no better sounding live music...
plus its like some kind of religious experience that is not religious...
Uncle Ar (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 2:55 pm
"Later U2 is o.k. but The Joshua Tree is matchless"
Yes, one of the best of all time I think. Although I was very sick of it for a time after it came out, hearing it from every other dorm room window for an entire year.
I was like seven when it came out, so I didn't have much of a problem with media saturation of my young brain in the early days of empty-vee, though technically, I suppose, it was prior to the age of reason so I was propagandized. Somehow select bits of 80's music stuck with me all those years!
CR,
Thank you for the
Great service there!
U2 lost me when Bono went all self righteous.
Well done, HAL, take a couple of milliseconds off before the real action a/h. You deserve it, buddy.
C
"U2 lost me when Bono went all self righteous. "
Don't worry he had his lawyers move his IP capital offshore so that he didn't have to pay taxes on it.
I always thought U2 and UB40 should merge and become UB42.
OK, off to hit the treadmill and play some poker. back later for BFF!
Ball game, and the shorts have left the building. At this point, even the 'bond ghouls' are a threatened species.
Classy...
Friday Newsdump: Deficit Projections Upped By $1.9 Trillion
Deficit projection upped by another oh couple of trillion.
home,
I think Bono is far from self righteous....He's pretty damn smart though...
I always thought U2 and UB40 should merge and become UB42. - E
You're thinking of UB40:
Discover Music
creditcriminalslovetarp (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:01 pm
plus its like some kind of religious experience that is not religious...
LOL. wow - I've not seen them live, but that's exactly what I get the sense of from that particular song...
I agree he's a smart cookie.
If we're talking about Bono's investments - the scam that Johnny R and his "Elevation Partners" pulled on EA shareholders was truly historic. Well played, boys.
Willard Ben: Everyone gets everything he wants. I wanted a mission, and for my sins, they gave me one. Brought it up to me like room service. It was a real choice mission, and when it was over, I never wanted another.
A trillion here, a trillion there... pretty soon we're talking real fiat money.
I have a hard time taking anyone seriously who has just one name.
What is the lag time between a capital restoration plan and shutting the doors?
"Large loan losses and dwindling capital continue to plague community banks in Southwest Florida.
Peninsula Bank of Englewood said Monday it lost $12.84 million in the second quarter and has retained two investment banking firms to find fresh capital.
The parent of Horizon Bank of Bradenton admits that regulators consider it a "troubled bank" that must file a capital restoration plan by next week.
Both banks are now deemed "undercapitalized" as their losses have eaten into capital cushions."
Ahhh shit, I need to go buy some
UB40 always wanted to be somebody else....their 1 hit album was all covers ( gotta love a neil diamond song as reggae though).
I see Ocean Bank and Terra Bank are on that list.
Ocean Bank has dark blue bullet proof windows on all their
branches. Very depressing inside. Owned I believe, by wealthy ?
Cubans.
Just got good news. Small --ie 2 unit condos don't have to be examined
by the Tallahassee bank examiners.
Love U2 as well. I can't actually pick a favorite album. There are songs on each I like. Have to be in the mood though, then I do a U2 marathon. Musically, though I am still digging Radiohead right now. Besides my classical fix each day, I have to have some Radiohead. Then some Steely Dan to mellow out.
Cinco- in response to your last ? on the last thread- just a 1/4;-)
"Washington, D.C. : The Next Mecca." See it now, in briliant HDTV. Coming soon to an unemployment office near you.
"UB40 always wanted to be somebody else....their 1 hit album was all covers ( gotta love a neil diamond song as reggae though). "
When I can't get my code to compile at work I like their song "Red, red whine".
Covers can be so fun, though. There's a band here in Portland that does heavy metal and classic rock with a mandolin-- it's hysterical:
Sneakin' Out - - HOME
That is not a long list of Florida troubled banks. I'm a little surprised.
Citizen AllenM (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 4:09 pm
Cinco- in response to your last ? on the last thread- just a 1/4;-)
Good enough; you're in
RiF - more like the next Jonestown. Waaay too much koolaid.
C
Elvis, lol..
Resistance-see them this fall...its hard to explain...but getting 18000 people to sing as they were leaving the MGM concert venue and walking into the casino with some kind of peace aura around all of them was amazing...
have seen them 3 times, would see them any day, any time....
What is this thread about, again? Oh, yes, pizza...I prefer onion pizza.
Russia and eastern Europe are falling apart, economically and literally. And there's nothing Ben and Timmay can do about it.
- NY Times
The latest statistics show that as little as 7.4 percent of all equipment in the power sector was replaced by 2007. Studies showed that half needed replacing and 15 percent was worn out beyond repair.
Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko has said it would cost 40 billion rubles ($1.2 billion) just to rebuild the damaged turbine room.
The death toll at Sayano-Shushenskaya is likely to rise with 28 workers still missing and Putin on Friday urged RusHydro, the owner of Sayano-Shushenskaya, to compensate the families of the dead. RusHydro has already pledged to pay 1 million rubles ($31,300) to the families of the dead. Putin promised to match the company's payouts with federal money.
Put me down for a market correction sooner rather than later.
In august they can 'extend and pretend' but come oct/nov they better start delivering the goods with a good Xmas. Not gonna happen. Xmas will be a dud (TPTB know it) unless Stimpack 2 makes an appearance. A correction (>15%) will provide political cover and an excuse for Summers to slide into Ben's seat.
Time magazine's 2006 People of the Year:
Bill and Melinda Gates, and Bono.
Ugh...
I like U2, but the hero worship can get a bit thick. The hagiographic tone of the Wikipedia page on U2 made me ill.
No, it was about Steely Dan and my secret passion for the most boomer-oriented of all great boomer bands...
"Earlier this week it came out that this year's deficit numbers would be reduced by about $262 billion. But bad news lon term. The Obama administration is upping its 10-year deficit forecast to $9 trillion from $7.9 trillion over the next two years. And of course they waited until end-of-market on Friday to do it, though we can't blame them for that"
Come on China, show the round eyes how this game is played, float the renminbi, dump your worthless US holdings
I just got an image of a billion+ Soroses - that will haunt my weekend
Re: What is this thread about, again
Pizza?
Which direction is South?
Which direction is West?
Why hasn't the world ending yet so my short positions would be worth infinity (and beyond).
CR,
I have purchase requisition for one devil with horns icon, with maybe a few lightening bolts and some steam, maybe a few sparks and hints of hell fire.
Devil in details: U.S. government officials are aiming for September to decide once and for all how banks' capital reserves should reflect a tidal wave of securitized assets that are headed for their balance sheets.
Asset Backed Alert - Asset Backed Securities - ABS Asset Backed Security
"As for other areas exposed to the new accounting guidelines, it doesn't look like treatment of commercial-paper conduits will change - meaning banks will have to continue holding capital against liquidity lines they write, but not the underlying portfolios. FASB's elimination of the QSPE designation dovetails with U.S. government implementation this year of its own version of Bank for International Settlements' New Basel Capital Accord, a set of risk-based capital-adequacy requirements also known as Basel 2. The U.S. blueprint typically sets more stringent requirements than the BIS rules".
"That is not a long list of Florida troubled banks. I'm a little surprised."
I think the surprise is that you are suprised by gov't data and lists.
I'm really too young for U2 (and I've heard every song in their catalog one time too many). These days my tastes lean toward indie rock. My band of the moment is Metric.
YouTube - Metric - Help I'm Alive (Album Version)
Counterpointer (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 8/21/2009 - 3:12 pm
RiF - more like the next Jonestown. Waaay too much koolaid.
C
Ahh yes, but that's not the hook that'll put asses in seats... Bring us your tired, your poor, your highly-educated, your huddled masses of homedebtors yearning for a free lunch!
kung fu,
Hero worship is written by others, they are humble...they deliver hope more so than most....they actually have some great causes that they have spearheaded including debt reduction, aids, suii kyi imprisonment etc...
paul o neill sd of bono, I looked around and couldnt believe we were going to listen to this long haired rock star in jeans, when he was done speaking..I turned to guy in the seat next to me and said " this guy is pretty damn smart"
Never mind, guess this may do (test)
cinco,
Kind of - want the value but broken out by income quintile...
Ah haa
hmmmm, perhaps problem with evil icon.... why does this not surprize me?
Winston,
"My band of the moment is Metric."
Not bad. Where do you find indie rock these days? All of the indie rock stations in the LA area are gone now...
Ok, that does it, I need to place an emergency icon fix request in for the evil icon, something aint working......
sm_landlord
I'm a big fan of Metric and radiohead, although I hang in there with U2. I just missed seeing them at a little gig back in Denver before Red Rocks -- but they did play the set on the radio.....
The Bay Area still has a station that dedicates 2 hours a week to indie rock (live 105). However, the best way is go to shows of the bands you like and to talk to friends who have similar tastes. Last.fm is also an OK source for such things.
I hate Steely Dan, he makes my stomach feel ooky.
Metric? Will check them out. Big fan of U2 and Radiohead
This song is probably most appropriate to this blog...
YouTube - Gold Guns Girls - Metric
Wow, 7, 10, and long bond blowing out.
C
Yup. Just noticed my bank's mortgage rate started at 5.125 today and ended at 5.25.
I'm still stubbornly waiting for <5.0
Steely Dan is a master of wit and satire. Musically they are okay, not quite my taste in everything...but the lyrics are divine. Decon Blues, Hey Nineteen, Do It Again...list goes on and on...and Fagen's solo work is just as good. I wish I had an ounce of that lyrical talent.
Winston, I have kinda soft spot for this:
YouTube -