U.S. Mortgage Market and Seriously Delinquent Loans by Type
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Thu, 08/20/2009 - 12:30pm (258 comments)
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Prime spot for me! Nemo!
South Financial Group Inc. parent of Mercantile Bank in Florida has suspended paying dividends on its common stock in an effort to shore up its capital reserves, the bank said Thursday.
We're all red now!
It's all contained, huh?...
I'd really like to see this bear market rally take the S&P 500 up another 60% before rolling over.
Oops, the dshort chart is sort of damaged, at least on my end.
Deon Sanders doesn't like the association of bad mortgages with Prime.
blue is my favorite color.
Prime rib has changed its name to Not Associated with Prime Mortgages rib.
C'mon, market, read the darn chart!
Blue is supposed to go down, now, not up!
The Prime Minister of Great Britian is now know just as the Minister.
"The mortgage meltdown continued to worsen in the second quarter as the number of homeowners who are either behind on their payments or in foreclosure rose to more than 13% nationwide -- a new record."
Mortgage defaults soar to record 13% - Los Angeles Times
But the queen of England is still Elton John
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The federal government will end its popular cash-for-clunkers progam on Monday at 8 p.m. Eastern, Transportation Secreatary Ray LaHood Department announced Thursday. As of Thursday, the govenment had approved $1.9 billion in rebates covering 457,000 vehicles
reposted
washingtonpost.com - nation, world, technology and Washington area news and headlines
gov. ends c4c
I'd expect to see the purple FHA wedge begin to grow soon, based on reports that the same hooligans who qualified every bipedal organism for mortgages during the bubble have moved their business to FHA loans.
Juvenial delinquents are now know as "juvenial primes who commit crime."
@Scone.
Thanks for the Deep Web link last thread.
Interesting.
Okay, back form my errands.
I :heart: this recession- cheap tix to stuff.
3 row 9 tix to wnba game against LA- last game of the season for the mercury- $75 total.
Now, back to the SD trip.
1- not going to TJ- as a fat white gringo, most of it doesn't interest me anymore, as I am married, and with spouse- besides, I am not bringing my passport just to have it stolen in TJ>now, when I was in SF ten years ago, I rode the ferry to Oakland and hung out with the Assistant Master Distiller at St. Georges for an afternoon. Somebody else had to drive the boat- they would let me try on the way back.
Some of the museums are a possible, some are going to wait until child accompanies- the Midway is a wait- he will be fascinated.
I guess I will have to haunt a few thrift boards to find the best places to score good junk.
Blah, it amazes me how quiet my interests have gotten, aside from my Crapgame predelictions.
So, gonna cruise around for quality stuff cheap.
Someday this war's gonna end...
A welcome end to cash for clunkers.
TJ is mostly RX drug stores now.
I object to the color purple for FHA loans. Are you implying that only gay people get FHA loans? If so, please provide further evidence.
So other than rising mortgage delinquincies in all mortgage categories and a surprise jump in layoffs everything else underpinning our consumer led economy is looking good?
1- not going to TJ- as a fat white gringo....
diet pills, meth are cheap in TJ
Re: everything else underpinning our consumer led economy is looking good
Debt and hopium, it's what made Merica great for the last 50 years!
$1.9 billion in rebates covering 457,000 vehicles - if all those vehicles got 18mpg and the new ones they replaced get 22mpg and they are driven 400 miles per week you get $380M less in oil imports per year (if I did my math right) - for a 1.9Bil dollar investment, plus and economic stimulus during a recession - doesn't sound like a bad investment to me
@Scone. Thanks for the Deep Web link last thread. - HG
You're welcome. This is the "back end" where hackers, terrorists, and spies lurk. But there is some development going on in web crawling.
Speed Kills
Scone,
Hezbollah has it's own Internet company. Has for years.
You mean meth isn't a diet pill? No teeth makes it hard to eat.
The market is going up but won't go down - you can hope for a stall. To much is at risk - pensions need to be funded and what easier way to "create" wealth. The U.S. since 1950 or so is founded on "hype" nothing less - its run by salesman. What other country in the world would elect an actor for president (Reagan). GS 'Earns" $100 million a day flash trading - these are not Wharton graduates, these are programmers with the latest algorithm designed to extract $100 million per day - no contribution to society, no production. To think any of it is correlated to 'fundamentals" is silly.
"Speed Kills"
Keep off the grass
Scone, Hezbollah has it's own Internet company. Has for years. - Nova
Yes, and it works just as well as the rest of their infrastructure.
A welcome end to cash for clunkers.
I give it no more than a month before they throw another billion or two at it.
Yah know what I like about that recovery chart .....do yah?
I like that in a normal economic downturn, or even a crash, the market drops fairly fast, and CR's chart shows the 50+/1 range for a drop, but then, the recovery, is normally a sideways period of economic churning, where economic equilibrium has to be managed and the cause of the collapse digested. This is the normal period where confidence is negotiated and re-built as people understand the events that caused the crash -- HOWEVER, in the current jobless recovery, which is being fueled by quantum leap financial engineering, we are essentially jumping from WW ll firebomb technology to something beyond "Fogbank". The point being, the recovery this time, is not normal, because it is not a recovery and as the days go by, this charade looks more and more like a cover up and more like Bush-like collusion and an economic coup, backed by wall street terrorists! I'd like to see more reality in terms of nationalized banks and policy adjustments that deal with regulation and corruption, versus rewarding wall street for causing a systemic global collapse!
See: Fogbank: The W76 is designed to release energy equal to about 100 kilotons of TNT, through both fission and fusion of atoms.
Also see: The resulting explosion had a blast yield equivalent to 21 kilotons of TNT.[citation needed] The explosion generated heat estimated at 3,900 degrees Celsius (7,000 degrees Fahrenheit) and winds that were estimated at 1005 km/h (624 mph). Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hey, the Phillipines elected a former actor and look how well they're doing.
Actually it is pretty good. They ran fiber optic for secure comm during the last Israeli and Lebannon adventure.
you get $380M less in oil imports per year (if I did my math right) - for a 1.9Bil dollar investment
5 year ROI and less if oil goes up more.
That's pretty funny.
Wow, that's almost a complete negation of the arguments against C4C.
Police: Clunkers program used to ditch hit-run car
Page expired - MSN Money
Anyone have a link for the cash for clunkers end???
Re: think any of it is correlated to 'fundamentals" is silly
What about human fundamentals. The majority of the peasantry love entertainment. Bread and Circus, right? Perhaps THIS is the normal, and the past that you know was some sort of bizarre world of liberal-democratic progress.
The peasants love entertaining politicians, love big-dick business leaders, love hype, love fantasy. Merica, giving the peasants what they LOVE for 50 years!
Nope. Just since the mid 1970s. Before that our prosperity was actually based on something. Ah well... It's no use wishing I weren't born just as America really went off the rails.
Error - washingtonpost.com
tim
Re: It's no use wishing I weren't born just as America really went off the rails.
You can still save yourself. There's still New Zealand.
gaby gracias
welcome
you get $380M less in oil imports per year (if I did my math right) - for a 1.9Bil dollar investment
The Sauds, Chevron and Exxon won't put up with that.
"It's been a thrill to be part of the best economic news story in America," Secretary Ray LaHood said in a statement. "Now we are working toward an orderly wind down of this very popular program."
The best economic news is a consumer/auto bailout? God Bless America!
My wife and I have discussed it seriously and several friends have made the move. She needs to finish her masters (this winter) before we apply.
Actually it is pretty good. They ran fiber optic for secure comm during the last Israeli and Lebannon adventure. - nova
Whatever you say, nova!
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 3:45 pm
@Scone. Thanks for the Deep Web link last thread. - HG
You're welcome. This is the "back end" where hackers, terrorists, and spies lurk. But there is some development going on in web crawling.
Along with the former director of the Information Awareness Office, (John Poindexter) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia who serves as a director for a tech company in South Dakota that's been around since the boom years (http://brightplanet.com/news-archives/198.html) and specializes in the deep web
5 year ROI and less if oil goes up more.
That's pretty funny.
Wow, that's almost a complete negation of the arguments against C4C.
We destroyed capital (used cars) to push debt. In aggregate, no good will come of it.
Its come down to what we own and what we are able to purchase - that defines "American" happiness.
AIG makes warm and fuzzy noises about making it all better, stock goes through roof:
U.S. Stocks Advance as AIG Says It Expects to Repay Bailout - Bloomberg.com
Scone,
Just because they dump sewage in the streets and wear a lot of cotton/rayon mix does not mean they are idiots.
Re: She needs to finish her masters
A masters will be very useful. They count education (it's a point system).
In my opinion, the US has no place left to go except into a PT's #1 fascist hell. It might not happen for 30 years, but THAT means it would affect your kids. I wouldn't want my kids to have Merican Fascism as their only political future.
(Disclaimer: no kids. Too old to seriously care about leaving)
You're right. We should have, at least, allowed the C4C cars to be exported.
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 3:57 pm
5 year ROI and less if oil goes up more.
That's pretty funny.
Wow, that's almost a complete negation of the arguments against C4C.
We destroyed capital (used cars) to push debt. In aggregate, no good will come of it.
Nonsense -- FIRE salaries can still be paid for a few more months. Dealers and consumers are barely chicken-feed in comparison.
I think you exaggerate a bit about nothing happening since the 1950s - a few things have been invented that generate wealth since then, like the transistor -> integrated circut ->sotware industry -> internet, genetic engineering, antiviral drugs, commercial jet liners, industrial robotics, CT systems, MRI, PET, ultrasound (CT, MRI, US, and PET have made the term "exploratory surgery" all but extinct), stents, blood pressure medications... blah blah blah As much as I hate MBAs who do nothing but by and sell crap they know nothing about I would hardly say all the growth in the US since the 1950s is hype...
We should have, at least, allowed the C4C cars to be exported.
We now have less capital and more debt. Only morons and debt pushers can celebrate that.
Incentivizing capital destruction. Unbelievable.
We destroyed capital (used cars) to push debt. In aggregate, no good will come of it.
Not sure I agree.
Newer cars means less breakdowns, more efficient traffic, less gas use.
And the paper is paper.
Feds can just devalue it like they've been doing.
RIF
The car market will never been the same. Everyone will be waiting for another C$4$C auto bailout program.
Like GM and O% and employee pricing. Consumers never can go back to 6% financing and MSRP.
Re: Its come down to what we own and what we are able to purchase
It's human. When 2 billion Chinese and Indians start buying Hummers and McMansion with granite counter tops you'll see how human it is.
It'll also make your current "global warming" problem look like a hot-pad.
Scone, Just because they dump sewage in the streets and wear a lot of cotton/rayon mix does not mean they are idiots. - Nova
They aren't idiots, but they aren't secure, either. Of course, there is no total "secure" zone. At the same time, the education they get over there is just not the best. A lot of rote learning and theory, not enough hands-on and imagination. The best educated tend to come to Uni in the West and often stay there. It's a brain drain.
Newer cars means less breakdowns, more efficient traffic, less gas use.
And the paper is paper.
All true. But there is still no reason to destroy the capital stock. A lot of poor people depend on clunkers. Just look at small time painters and landscapers. Construction jobsite trucks etc.
C4C is criminal.
Tim waiting for 2012 (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 4:03 pm
The car market will never been the same. Everyone will be waiting for another C$4$C auto bailout program.
Like GM and O% and employee pricing. Consumers never can go back to 6% financing and MSRP.
That's the pushing demand forward aspect too... but this props up financing, buying time for another bubble to hopefully inflate so the parasite system can attach itself to the new host before the old one dies.
You are correct as I exaggerate - and I may well be wrong. We didn't fall off a cliff in 1950 - what I think is we embarked on a descent based upon an urgency to consume and live a lifestyle based upon credit and living "now" promoted by corporations looking for profits and the persuasive power of the salesman culture. But it may well be the natural order.
Nonsense -- FIRE salaries can still be paid for a few more months. Dealers and consumers are barely chicken-feed in comparison.
RIF,
Sad, but increasing true. You'd think that all the bailouts and $1.25 trillion in GSE monetization would be enough for the FIRE sector. You'd be wrong of course, there is never enough.
A lot of poor people depend on clunkers
Let them eat mass transit!
(followed by perfunctory Dawg comment)
Re: happening since the 1950s
Agreed. Seem to me the REAL problem is that since the '50 more and more of the intelligent people - the very VERY small group of people with enough brains to actually invent or lead - have less and less places to go except into "financial services". This has concentrated all of the brain power into what is essentially as huge scam.
If most of these people had been doing something ELSE we (as a society) might be better off.
(Of course, knowing Merica, we'd probably just have the worlds best death-rays by now. The society is still mostly philosophically up, with no way to fix it).
Cash for Clunkers? Chump change. How about 26B of MBS in a week? Now THAT is real money.
Or is it?
Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
JD needed a 10 word summary:
Those who collapsed the tunnel are profiting selling us pickaxes.
we'd probably just have the worlds best death-rays
We do!
No opportunity cost there.
Not sure I agree.
Newer cars means less breakdowns, more efficient traffic, less gas use.
And the paper is paper.
Feds can just devalue it like they've been doing.
If the car stimulus supported a transition to completely new technology, maybe I could grudgingly support it. But this Cash for Clunkers seems too lateral to me. If it were just restricted to, say, hybrids I might get semi-sorta-excited (am I turning into a tree hugger?).
I'm reminded of arguments that stimulus which targets existing economic sectors will tend to backfire in the long run.
That certainly seems to have been the case with housing.
At least if we had a glass housing bubble we could have had a great time throwing stones all day.
Oh, if anyone is interested I wrote more CR inspired doom about life after the economic crash. It is a serial novel about life when organic cotton blouses, lattes, and scented lotion becomes more difficult to find, an America screams in despair!
Angry Saver (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 4:07 pm
Sad, but increasing true. You'd think that all the bailouts and $1.25 trillion in GSE monetization would be enough for the FIRE sector. You'd be wrong of course, there is never enough.
Yep. Of course what it has done to manufacturing and to our economy pales in comparison to what it has done to our intellectual capital and what its supremacy has done to our culture.
If GNMA's are so much more of the mortgage market these days, how come Bernanke is mostly buying Fannie and Freddie MBS? What is it about frannie that the rest of the market doesn't like?
Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Let them eat mass transit!
They're eating mass transfat debt!
As for the government devaluing paper, destroying capital only accelerates the process.
We've lost our way.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 4:07 pm
Re: happening since the 1950s
Agreed. Seem to me the REAL problem is that since the '50 more and more of the intelligent people - the very VERY small group of people with enough brains to actually invent or lead - have less and less places to go except into "financial services". This has concentrated all of the brain power into what is essentially as huge scam.
Not just that - they are expert in a psychopathic system and replete with behavioral reinforcements that convince them it is not only reality, but the only possible reality.
Externalized Costs, appreciated your entry in the last post. I know a lot of fine people who "don't want to know." They have their reasons. Does that make them less fine?
Your story of the 12-year-old who couldn't make change was heart-breaking, because it's true. Had a guy tell me a couple of years ago about his high-school grad daughter -- who had gotten decent grades -- who applied for a job at Trader Joe's and failed their basic math test (think it was Joe's).
I'm reminded of arguments that stimulus which targets existing economic sectors will tend to backfire in the long run.
yes, true enough in housing.
But the housing still exists, just like the cars will still exist.
It's their relative value in proportion to other things that distorted.
if the Feds distort enough things, maybe it will all line up right again.
Like rolling 18 snake-eyes in a row.
Why does everyone here think all debt is bad? If you go into debt in order to get something that will return your investment back with interest it is not a bad thing - i.e. taking out a $200k loan to go to med school to make $400k a year as a doctor is not a bad thing, taking out debt to build some public infrastructure which will improve productivity, such as education, public transport or whatever is not bad - taking out debt to build McMansions in the middle of nowhere or paying bonus to bankers who will buy swimming pools and boat and run up the price of commodities is a bad thing - the banks, the supposed "heart" of our economy misdirected resources on a vast scale during the housing crisis taking resources that could have been productively spent and directed them to building shitty houses and bonues - instead of investing in new companies and technologies or useful infrastructure
The C4C program only works if the putative buyers actually complete the purchase by paying every month for the next 60 ±12 months.
Me? I'm gonna snag one of these C4C vintage low mileage repos in 6 months for cash or preferably negative interest rate via accelerated depreciation recapture.
What is it about frannie that the rest of the market doesn't like?
Ghost,
Apparently, investors want guarantees these days. Can't say I blame them. Total private wages have only increase ~ 1.5% in 3 years! And that's a top heavy number making defaults more and more likely.
I got out of Dodge years ago and I ain't goin back.
In re. the "move to New Zealand" meme that keeps appearing here:
Yes, sure, move to NZ. Come one, come all. Bring your (by our standards) vast wealth and your attitudes to "sheeple".
(By the way, Externalized Costs, +1000 for your comments.)
Bring your gated communites. Do like Shania Twain, and make yourselves sweetheart deals to get access to land that no New Zealander could ever dream of having.
Just one word of advice: better pretend to be Canadian.
/rant
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:12 pm
Me? I'm gonna snag one of these C4C vintage low mileage repos in 6 months for cash or preferably negative interest rate via accelerated depreciation recapture.
Good plan; I think I'll do the same if I can talk the wife into waiting-
"Why does everyone here think all debt is bad?"
Because they just like to be negative about everything,
apparently - it gets a bit tiring
Why do these statistics not tie out?
Ginnie Mae President Murin Said to Resign Tomorrow (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
"Applications for mortgages backed by the FHA or Veterans Affairs represented 35.9 percent of all applications for refinancings or home purchases in June, the highest share since 1990, according to the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association."
Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(800+875)/(5850+19115+800+875) = 6.3%.
Ginnie's are 35% of all mortgage applications, but only 6.3% of Fed MBS purchases? Why is that? Do market participants have no faith in the future of Fannie and Freddie? If not, what happens to Fannie and Freddie MBS once the Fed stops buying? Or CAN the Fed stop buying?
Me? I'm gonna snag one of these C4C vintage low mileage repos in 6 months for cash or preferably negative interest rate via accelerated depreciation recapture.
Sometimes the early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse (or Dawg) always gets the cheese.
destroying capital only accelerates the process
Paper is not the reality, it's the model of reality.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:10 pm
If GNMA's are so much more of the mortgage market these days, how come Bernanke is mostly buying Fannie and Freddie MBS? What is it about frannie that the rest of the market doesn't like?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/mbs/
Ginnie Mae was not heavily involved in the market when the real crap was being written a few years back. It's perceived as lower risk-
Crispy!!! Biz holding up?
Debt is not a societal badness. People who do not believe going into debt are. *
.
rm-rf (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 2:12 pm
Why does everyone here think all debt is bad?
Interesting question worthy of a serious answer.
I am reminded of an old story of the farmer tired of people stealing his watermelons. To fix this he put out a sign: "WARNING: One of these watermelons is POISONED!!!"
He awoke the next morning to a sign next to his: "Now two are..."
Bad debt is like that. But you know this and I can prove it. Piss off your waiter before he serves you food. Go on, I dare you.
"In my opinion, the US has no place left to go except into a PT's #1 fascist hell. It might not happen for 30 years, but THAT means it would affect your kids. I wouldn't want my kids to have Merican Fascism as their only political future."
it's a great idea to have another country as insurance so that kids can have an more viable "exit strategy", much needed protection from deficits and entitlements crashing on them... as a parent, making sure the ponzis don't explode on them is key.
Aug is doing very well, so far...green shoots are getting so tall, I need to re-hire the gardener
I'm gonna snag one of these C4C vintage low mileage repos in 6 months
I'm going to snag one with C4C.v3 and keep my cash.
Because they just like to be negative about everything,
So you're saying we should be positive about adding to excessive debt that collapsed the world credit system absent central bank printing?
The debt/credit industry is there to facilitate being able to buy "now". A student borrowing $200k to earn $400k a year as a doctor simply states that the vast majority of doctors are overpaid.
Why does everyone here think all debt is bad?
I think debt to finance actual investment is great. I think debt to finance consumption is not at all great. I think the government rarely gives a damn which is which, and many of my fellow citizens even less so.
Is he an ex financial broker named Chad?
Re: We've lost our way.
The balance of power was upset, we didn't lose our way.
The balance of power between the PT's #1's & 2's was different in the '50's. The Unions controlled the type 2's dumbasses and elected the type 2's nobility. The mean-nasty dumbasses (that now watch and believe Faux News) were MIXED with the guilt-ridden type 2 dumbasses. Lots of people were in Unions and Unions focused their tiny brains on THE MAN, they didn't have time to hate each-other as much. Of course, THOSE PEOPLE were understood to be less-than-human by all the dumbasses then.
This all collapsed when the type 2's nobility declared THOSE PEOPLE human in the '60. The mean-nasty dumbasses (the Faux News people) started voting Republican ( the type 1's nobility) giving more power to the corporations. This completely upset the balance of power between the two Parties (the nobility).
Been downhill ever since.
Not all debt is bad, debt to buy CRE with a cap rate of 3% is bad, however, with a cap rate of 10%+ is very nice (not a pro-forma 10%, but a signed leases paying right now 10%)
"Ginnie Mae was not heavily involved in the market when the real crap was being written a few years back. It's perceived as lower risk- "
Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie MBS is all guaranteed by a third party, credit risk should play no part in that buying decision.
Ginnie Mae was not heavily involved in the market when the real crap was being written a few years back. It's perceived as lower risk-
Ginnie Mae carries an explicit government backing. Vanguards ginnie mae fund is one of my few non treasury holdings.
We lost our way when we started laughing at Wally for asking his innocent questions.
Re: better pretend to be Canadian
Don't worry! You won't get any of our REAL Merican (PT's #1). Mostly #4's, you'll be ok.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 4:21 pm
Re: We've lost our way.
Is there a generational component or bias to your typology?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 2:07 pm
A lot of poor people depend on clunkers
Let them eat mass transit!
(followed by perfunctory Dawg comment)
The great thing about assertive certitude and a fully defensible position is that at some point you don't have to say anything.
"It is a serial novel about life when organic cotton blouses, lattes, and scented lotion becomes more difficult to find"
Nova, making fun of DJ's buy merika pitch this morning?
How did we lose our way? I think progress has been good. What are you guys longing for? The reversal of the right of woman to vote? The reversal of civil rights? etc...I will know that I am getting to old or too negative when I start longing for yesteryear...
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:22 pm
Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie MBS is all guaranteed by a third party, credit risk should play no part in that buying decision.
AIG?
"Ginnie Mae carries an explicit government backing."
Hmmm, now you are on to something. An EXPLICIT government guaranty. Something Fannie and Freddie do not have.
Why not?
Good for you. No need to rush the apocalypse -- I'm going to enjoy the sunny fall weather while I can.
I wish I was that smart.
MLM,
That's the problem. We don't borrow to invest or promote capital accumulation very much at all. The Fed and Wall St. promote consumption debt because it is easy, low risk and VERY profitable.
I think debt to finance actual investment is great. I think debt to finance consumption is not at all great. I think the government rarely gives a damn which is which, and many of my fellow citizens even less so.
the key for americans is to begin to stop confusing consumption with investment. those stories of "return on replacing rotting windows" or "return in remodeling your bathroom" made me sick for a while. they were a sign of the times
Not all debt is bad, debt to buy CRE with a cap rate of 3% is bad, however, with a cap rate of 10%+ is very nice (not a pro-forma 10%, but a signed leases paying right now 10%)
Yep. Saying debt is bad is like saying fire or electricity is bad.
Yes they can be catastrophic when misused.
rm-rf - LMAO! You've been registered for a week and you're tired of the dooming!?
You ain't seen nothin, sunshine.
C
The reversal of the right of woman to vote?
I wish you hadn't used this as an example.
Because they just like to be negative about everything,
No I don't.
C&C,
when the golf courses in Bakersfield reopen.
I'll believe the
Should I hold my breath or just let the
eat the 
?
Re: Is there a generational component or bias to your typology?
God, I hope so. My generation (50) are a bunch of racist dumbasses, brought up by their parents who are even BIGGER racists dumbasses.
The few 25 +/- people I know are much less racists, homophobic, & xenophobes (but are still dumbass believers in THEIR nobility, that's probably genetic, not behavioral).
The 35 +/- (at least the ones I work with) are just like my generation.
"Because they just like to be negative about everything,"
No I don't.
Guilty as charged here.
broward - LOL!!
moved to vermont because (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:19 pm
..... A student borrowing $200k to earn $400k a year as a doctor simply states that the vast majority of doctors are overpaid.
It's not so simple; it also shows that intervention in that market (for college degrees) has driven up the costs of said degree at a much faster rate than the CPI. Additionally, whereas in previous generations folks went into medicine because they want to help others, these empathetic types have been crowded out by those who see being a doctor as an avenue to a very high income. Consequently, you get arrogant @$$holes with no bedside manner in lieu of the old country doctor that used to make house calls.
Using your numbers I came up with a value of ~$343 million/year (about a 10% reduction from your original estimate), though that is problematic due to the overestimate of average miles driven.
.
A more accurate number is around 288 miles/week (based on average 15,000 miles/year), which results in a ~$250 million/year savings (another incremental 24% or so from the original estimate).
.
So based on a flat oil price of $70/bbl, 69.1 million gallons of gasoline saved each year, an average gasoline yield per barrel of oil of 19.4 gallons would save 3.6 million barrels of oil =10 year undiscounted payout.
.
If you think oil prices are in a bubble and they end up averaging around $50/bbl, that results in ~$178 million savings annually and a 14 year undiscounted payout.
.
just sayin'
Yep. I think a quick look at how much an incremental dollar of debt actually added to GDP in each of the past 10 years gets the point across. We're long past the point where any significant amount of the debt being added is for investment purposes. It's almost all being spent on delicious 10 course meals of seed corn.
I suspect that consumption debt is in the process of becoming much less profitable.
Virginia's Secretary of Finance yesterday put out its forecast for 2010. The report mentions sales tax revenue for july was down 6% yoy.
The August Interim Revenue Forecast
Incorporates Pessimism From The GACRE
Meeting…
• Based on GACRE comments:
– The pessimistic alternative scenario for sales tax
revenue was adopted.
– Corporate income tax receipts were lowered to reflect
weak taxable profits.
– Recordation receipts now anticipate that the bottom of
the housing market has occurred in Virginia.
• The August Interim revenue forecast is a blend of the
standard outlook and the pessimistic outlook.
– Payroll withholding and retail sales tax – 80% of
general fund revenues – are forecast to track to the
pessimistic alternative scenario.
http://www.finance.virginia.gov/KeyDocuments/JMCmaterials/JMC-Aug2009.pdf
It hard to imagine a situation when debt is not bad - its not fire and not electricity. Its trading something real for a "promise" because at this time you have nothing other than than "promise" in return.
"Fannie/Freddie/Ginnie MBS is all guaranteed by a third party, credit risk should play no part in that buying decision.
AIG? "
Something like that. So it has nothing to do with the quality of the underlying mortgages, and everything to do with the quality of the underlying counterparties.
Now, let's do some math. According to Bernanke, he is going to stop buying MBS when his $1.25T runs out. Let's see, he has about until the end of the year, according to most accounts.
Mortgage Rates Blog
These guys calculate he has spent 766B in 8 months.
But, according to Geithner, the admin won't have a plan for Fannie and Freddie until Feb 2010, and it will take months, if not years, before something actually goes through Congress.
So what happens in the interim? Will the market all of a sudden start buying Fannie and Freddie MBS in place of Bernanke? What if the market doesn't?
And what about the $1.25T he holds? Will this ever be sold?
The answers to these questions provide a guide to the future of the mortgage and housing markets. Why is no one asking these questions?
Rob - New RRE in this valley is dead for years. We have enough paper lots, let alone f/c's, to build for the next 3 generations worth of homes
Damn.
I'm getting lot more calls for contract East coast crap that I don't want to goof with.
Five or six calls today.
The money for VA is pretty high, $80=100/hr.
I'd really rather not travel around anymore.
Isn't the "classical" definition of debt is that it (the debt) is supposed to be used to create "productive" assets? So, using debt for consumption (low-profile-tire dick-mobiles, granite counter-tops) isn't all the productive - in the big picture of things.
Its trading something real for a "promise" because at this time you have nothing other than than "promise" in return.
Only unsecured debt fits that description.
I leave in a few minutes to drive through Tysons Corner, VA. Home of the second worst traffic in the USA. So far there has been no traffic. It may be because it is August. Never the less it has more office space than than Richmond and less traffic than Gothenburg NE. Well, it has more but...
God, I hope so. My generation (50) are a bunch of racist dumbasses, brought up by their parents who are even BIGGER racists dumbasses.
The few 25 +/- people I know are much less racists, homophobic, & xenophobes (but are still dumbass believers in THEIR nobility, that's probably genetic, not behavioral).
The 35 +/- (at least the ones I work with) are just like my generation.
I'm closer to the last category there. I don't feel any animosity toward other races and I think the key was simply growing up in integrated environments. When you play with people of other races as a kid, it's difficult to think of them in any other way than as "fellow human beings".
I know the older generations in my family that do harbor more racist sentiments seem to have grown up in exclusively x-colored environments.
I don't consider myself enlightened or anything, I just think I'm a product of my environment.
I wish I was that smart. - nova
And so dies the subjunctive mood. Not with a bang, but with a whimper. Sigh.
In other news, you can take your cat on board an airplane, as long as you follow certain rules-- carrier under the seat. You don't even have to buy kitty her own seat! That's a relief.
big errors in your calculation-
those are clunkers that are being traded in. So you have factor in some kind of average remaining life for those vehicles.- it is not a $380MM saving in imported gasoline forever.
Secondly, you are assuming that in the absence of the c4c program none of those cars would have been replaced.
Thirdly, since there are new CAFE standards mandated and fuel efficiency is going up you have to factor in the difference between the fuel efficiency of the vehicles being purchased today relative to the higher fuel efficiency if the vehicles had been replaced a few years from now.
Fourthly, you have to factor back in the higher cost of used cars now that the portion of the 457,000 that would have made their way back into the used car market are taken out of circulation.
Lastly, people are likely to use their new cars more than they did the old clunkers.
Besides I don't know where you get your $380 million number from. The difference between 18 mpg and 22 mpg is a saving of about 121 gallons/year (assuming 12,000miles/year), With 457,000 cars replaced that works out to 55,000,000 gallons unless we hit $7/gallon I don't see how you get to $380MM.
I think if you factor in all of the above factors this program probably saves no more than 11 million gallons /year for about 3 years. In other words not considering the incremental cost of used cars it is about $60 per gallon saved.
pardon my ignorance what is a PT and the sub categories. I like to know what I am being called
crazyv - good analysis that I should have done (except I disagree with point #1).
I suppose I'll drive over to Greenlake, we're having dinner there tonight.
Counterpointer (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:27 pm
rm-rf - LMAO! You've been registered for a week and you're tired of the dooming!?
You ain't seen nothin, sunshine.
C
Registered for a week!? Any chance this is Sebastian?
Sort of like you hide your CA license plates if you move to NC or the PNW?
It always struck me as ironic the people who hammer on archor children and undocumented workers are usually the ones who hold moving to NZ and the new ideal. I never occurs to them what they will be doing to the natives.
Any gusses on what the next C4C program will be?
Cash for Engery Efficient Windows? Cash for Solar? Cash for XXXX
Or that people will think poorly of them for bailing on a perfectly decent first wife for a bimbo they only know about because they saw her in a movie.
why- the clunkers being traded were not going to last forever ?
You're right - unfortunately secured debt is a moving target - mortgages are supposedly secured by the value of the house but that didn't quite work out. A new norm in mark to market will solve that problem.
crispyandcole (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 2:31 pm
Rob - New RRE in this valley is dead for years. We have enough paper lots, let alone f/c's, to build for the next 3 generations worth of homes
I know. I'm giving you are hard time. I just think you are early, not wrong. We won't enter an extended depression but we also won't escape another leg down. BKfield should consider de-annexation and strict UGBs as a first step to address the shift away from growth as a beseline condition. Then you have to do something for all of America. You have it in your power to either derail or fast track High Speed Rail for this continent for a century. Huge responsibility and strangely something you guys don't see.
Side note: Trade you some of our overcast for some of your sunshine.
Re: exclusively x-colored environments
Yes. Location matters too. Myself, after growing up in a large northeastern typically racists city (think, white people fleeing like there's a plague - which to them there was) to California, I was amazed that THOSE PEOPLE weren’t hated as much as THOSE OTHER PEOPLE. I was confused for awhile, because in my eastern city we didn't hate THOSE OTHER PEOPLE nearly as much because they hated THOSE PEOPLE too; the enemy of my enemy thing.
Tiny brain dumbasses are tiny brain dumbasses, I guess.
Btw, You think heath care is REALLY about health care? Or public-transportation is about public-transportation? It's REALLY about THOSE PEOPLE.
c&c, are you proposing a bailout for pr0n?!
@ Cinco-X Are you receiving me? Do you have an opinion on Laconia Savings Bank?
Re: PT's.
Gotta move the cursor OVER the letter's PT's. It'll show a pop-up. But, only the first PT's will be "active".
moved to vermont because (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:31 pm
It hard to imagine a situation when debt is not bad - its not fire and not electricity. Its trading something real for a "promise" because at this time you have nothing other than than "promise" in return.
The money you receive is just a promise as well, so no big deal. If everyone lived in their parents house because they didn't want to go into debt to buy a house, then a lot of folks that could be working building new homes would have no source of income. Society would be poorer even though it had a lower debt burden. BTW, there's good chance this is where we're headed.
Rob - how about I give you some smog instead?
I say there is 0.1% chance of HIgh speed rail in Ca. We have a stop here locally on the plans. Honestly, I want to be a progressive thinker, but it is just a complete waste of money. If we are going to waste that kind of money there are a lot better things that might actually be a positive to the economy and the environment.
Any gusses on what the next C4C program will be?
betting window already closed. $300 million for appliances.
Yes, C4P (cash for Porn)!!
What do I do? Turn in my old videos for new c/d's or just downloads?
Probably have to keep them. Not much of a market for muppet sex
back in the day when I started out as a loan officer - we were taught that lending was always based on "two ways out" . The first was the income stream and the second was the liquidation of the collateral. For most banks the first way out was the most important since they knew that liquidating collateral was always a dicey business.
We don't need massive regulatory reform we just need people to go back to common sense and time tested methods. I should add that I was amongst the earliest practioners in the swap market. At the time the big issue was whether these were "gaming contracts" and therefore illegal. Ultimately the banks lawyers allowed us to do them providing the client represented that they were entering into these contracts for legitimate business purposes i.e non speculative.
well, given the 21st century IT focus of the administration, it has GOT to be downloads!
"dditionally, whereas in previous generations folks went into medicine because they want to help others, these empathetic types have been crowded out by those who see being a doctor as an avenue to a very high income."
Plus these rent seekers influence the AMA to limit approved schools to reduce competition. Talk about the need for a public option... public medical schools are much needed.
Re: HIgh speed rail in Ca
A train stimulus would be good because it addresses simultaneously the plight of the peasants AND the scum-bags that run society. It gives the peasants simple jobs that can't be out-sourced and give the scum-bags graft opportunities not seen since the Interstate Highways were built. Everybody could be in on the scam.
Probably have to keep them. Not much of a market for muppet sex - nova
Evidently, there is:
muppet sex - Google Search
We have lost our way...
cinco- You make a good point. It is not debt that matters but debt burden i.e the level of debt service to income. Secondly, it matters whether income is going up or down. In the developing world higher levels of debt burden would be ok since they are generally younger populations with very low productivity levels- ironically that is a good thing since it provides greater room for productivity gains and higher incomes.
In the US all those factors were going against us- older population, income pressure from globalization and high productivity .
" August 20, 2009
Mexico’s National Statistics Institute said Aug. 20 that the Mexican economy shrank 10.3 percent in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, The Associated Press reported. The agency said the quarterly decline was led by a 16.4 percent contraction in manufacturing and a 9.2 decline in construction. Commerce was also down by 20.9 percent and transportation decreased by 13.7 percent."
crispyandcole (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 2:43 pm
I say there is 0.1% chance of HIgh speed rail in Ca. We have a stop here locally on the plans. Honestly, I want to be a progressive thinker, but it is just a complete waste of money. If we are going to waste that kind of money there are a lot better things that might actually be a positive to the economy and the environment.
Given the current political weather I'd say there's a 1% chance of a working system but a 100% chance of money being spent. IF CAHSR were possible we'd have grading between Merced and BKfield underway. THe thing is CAHSR has been co-opted by the SF crowd for their purposes. That's why BKfield being reticent is so important.
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:41 pm
@ Cinco-X Are you receiving me? Do you have an opinion on Laconia Savings Bank?
I don't have any mail at my account. Try:
Bank & Thrifts Screener | Banks & Thrifts Market Performance & Financial Tools | Ratings Screeners | TheStreet.com
type in Laconia for name and NH for state
It has a C+ rating
Question for the commentariat - does anyone know a good data source for the average debt level of people in the US? Not national debt, but all the rest - and then by income level...I would like to tie that into the real income level plot I recently put up.
I blame San Mateo County for not opting in on BART.
Re: I say there is 0.1% chance of High speed rail in Ca
It won't be CaLi. It would have to be the Feds. Way to much money. Would cost trillions if we were to waste a comparable amount that was wasted on the Freeways. (Which, should be our goal if we’re going to do it right)
Re: BART.
BART is a poster-child for government graft. I love BART.
@ Cinco - thanks, didn't come up with anything. They're a small portfolio lender.
Mexico's GDP Shrinks 10.3% In Second Quarter
LOS ANGELES -- Mexico's gross domestic product contracted 10.3% in the second quarter, hurt by a slowdown related to the H1N1 flu outbreak and the Easter holiday, said Mexico's statistics agency on Thursday. It is the fourth consecutive quarter of declines in economic activity, but the contraction in the second quarter was less than the 10.6% that had been expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Mexico's GDP fell 8% in the first quarter of 2009, and grew by 2.9% in the second quarter of 2008.
Page Cannot Be Found
crazyv (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:50 pm
cinco- You make a good point. It is not debt that matters but debt burden i.e the level of debt service to income. Secondly, it matters whether income is going up or down. In the developing world higher levels of debt burden would be ok since they are generally younger populations with very low productivity levels- ironically that is a good thing since it provides greater room for productivity gains and higher incomes.
In the US all those factors were going against us- older population, income pressure from globalization and high productivity .
And now you know why Ben is desperately trying to ignite inflation.
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:57 pm
@ Cinco - thanks, didn't come up with anything. They're a small portfolio lender.
FWIW, there's an A- bank called Essex in CT. Don't know if it'd do you any good or if they have any branches up in NH.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 4:29 pm
Re: Is there a generational component or bias to your typology?
God, I hope so. My generation (50) are a bunch of racist dumbasses, brought up by their parents who are even BIGGER racists dumbasses.
The few 25 +/- people I know are much less racists, homophobic, & xenophobes (but are still dumbass believers in THEIR nobility, that's probably genetic, not behavioral).
The 35 +/- (at least the ones I work with) are just like my generation.
Interesting... I'd be particularly interested to see how you think your 4 political types would fit into the Strauss & Howe Generations categories:
Silent: (1925)
Boom: (1943)
Thirteenth: (1961)
Millenial: (1982)
If at all. By temperament I think I am far more a "Millenial" Gen-Y than Thirteenth Gen-Xer in many respects.
I know this stuff is far from scientific but am curious how you'd stack it considering a wider spectrum, and particularly with respect to those older than you who still hold power (overtly or behind the throne)
Mexico's GDP Shrinks 10.3% In Second Quarter
LOS ANGELES -- Mexico's gross domestic product contracted 10.3% in the second quarter...
The article states that 80% of Mexico's exports(not counting humans) go to the US and they are seeing no increase in orders.
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:54 pm
Question for the commentariat - does anyone know a good data source for the average debt level of people in the US?
You might try starting here:
Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios
@ Cinco the screener just isn't working for me. It grinds away, says 'done' and there's no data displayed. Or it gives me a '500 internal server error' message.
Can't wait to see the wrong conclusions drawn from that table.
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 6:03 pm
@ Cinco the screener just isn't working for me. It grinds away, says 'done' and there's no data displayed. Or it gives me a '500 internal server error' message.
I was unable to download the reports, but I did get the "grade" of the bank. I'll try the link in the post and see if it works for me-
energy-heres recent sking alpha discussing similar thing
Debt and Class Inequality -- Seeking Alpha
It pains me to see those more seriously delinquent than I, typecast.
Honestly now, is THIS what a "recovery" looks like? I feel like I'm living in a bizarro alternative universe. All day, the pundits on Bloomberg radio kept telling me that the economy is "rebounding". Seriously?
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 6:03 pm
@ Cinco the screener just isn't working for me. It grinds away, says 'done' and there's no data displayed. Or it gives me a '500 internal server error' message.
Scone,
Did you get an e-mail from me?
This pre-recovery period has been sponsored by the Eastern Front.
kcoop,
Is messaging working? Liz was trying to contact me earlier and couldn't get through, and now scone-
xxxxx
That table from the reserve bears zero resemblence to any household balance sheet except maybe a boomer or two who bought a home in the 80s using 30% down.
Since you're so certain, why don't you just let us know what they'll be right now?
This is what a induced recovery in the stock market looks like - induced by happy talk and happy statistics because when we feel happy we consume and expand the necessary debt to keep the system afloat. There is an urgency to consume.
Re: 4 political types would fit into the Strauss & Howe Generations categories
I think the 4 types I made are applicable to all but Millennial. But, would NOT apply to any group & politics BEFORE the '60's. Primarily because, in my opinion, all of the current political problems we are experiencing were caused by the white-people being unable to get-over the 60's and THOSE PEOPLE.
All generations (including yours) have the same teaming-masses of believing dumbasses that worship THEIR nobility. This is probably genetic. But, when the white-dumbasses stopped believing in their PRE-60's nobility (the PRE-60's Democratic Party, which declared THOSE PEOPLE human) this caused a collapse-in-faith similar to the Soviet experience, except it was felt by only a portion of the dumbasses (the current Faux News loving ones). The Republican Party was drastically altered as a result, from being a minority (almost) truly libertarian party into (effectively) a majority corporate-Christian-fascist party. The white-dumbasses that voted Republican were - for 30 years - consistently voted against their interests SIMPLY for their nobility’s promise to roll-back-the-clock to the Pre-60's when THOSE PEOPLE knew their place.
moved to vermont because (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 6:16 pm
This is what a induced recovery in the stock market looks like - induced by happy talk and happy statistics because when we feel happy we consume and expand the necessary debt to keep the system afloat. There is an urgency to consume.
Consume now or be priced out forever-
Mannwich (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:11 pm
Honestly now, is THIS what a "recovery" looks like? I feel like I'm living in a bizarro alternative universe. All day, the pundits on Bloomberg radio kept telling me that the economy is "rebounding". Seriously?
No, but if the message is repeated enough and seems internally consistent across a variety of channels, it will function effectively as a propaganda.
Yes, WestSac_grrl, exactly so!
You guys were all bright enough to see this shambles coming. Why would you run out on your country now?
Least of all to hide out in New Zealand. I agree with Krugman that the only way out of this mess is the development of a great new technology that everyone wants, everyone needs, and that will make everyone's life better. This is still most likely to happen in the US.
There is little chance of such a development happening in NZ - apart from Weta Workshops, we're a nation of dairy farmers with few resources. Even Rutherford had to move to Cambridge to split the atom.
Stay where you are, work through the creative destruction, find that technology, and throw your economic power behind it. Don't come and eat lotos here. That would be a waste.
Re: Otepoti (profile) wrote (in reply to...)
HA!!! TO LATE. WE KNOW YOU ARE THERE NOW!!!!
And were coming. Complete with our narcissism, low-profile-tire dick-mobiles, and assholes-always-win mentality!
And, YOU HAVE NO PLACE TO HIDE!!!!!!!!!
Scone,
Did you get an e-mail from me? - Cinco
Yes, thanks! I had to dismantle the force fields, first. Spamblocking. It occurs to me I should ask the Intel guys at Nashua where they bank. Also, if I go through them, they can help plow the road. Thanks!
"No, but if the message is repeated enough and seems internally consistent across a variety of channels, it will function effectively as a propaganda."
See #7
The Debt Deflation Theory of Great Depressions
By Irving Fisher, 1933
page 342
(1) Debt liquidation leads to distress selling and to
(2) Contraction of deposit currency, as bank loans are paid off, and to a slowing down of the velocity of circulation. This contraction of deposits and their velocity, precipitated by distress selling, causes
(3) A fall in the level of prices, in other words, a swelling of the dollar. Assuming, as above stated, that this fall of prices is not interfered with by reflation or otherwise, there must be
(4) A greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies and
(5) A like fall in profits, which in a "capitalistic,"
that is private-profit society, leads the concerns which are running at a loss to make
(6) A reduction in output, in trade, and in employment of labor. These losses, bankruptcies, and unemployment, lead to
(7) Pessimism and loss of confidence, which in turns lead to
(8) Hoarding and slowing down still more the velocity of circulation.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:17 pm
All generations (including yours) have the same teaming-masses of believing dumbasses that worship THEIR nobility. This is probably genetic. But, when the white-dumbasses stopped believing in their PRE-60's nobility (the PRE-60's Democratic Party, which declared THOSE PEOPLE human) this causes a collapse-in-faith similar to the Soviet experience, except it was felt by only a portion of the dumbasses (the current Faux News loving ones). The Republican Party was drastically altered as a result, from being a minority (almost) truly libertarian party into (effectively) a majority corporate-Christian-fascist party. The white-dumbasses that voted Republican were - for 30 years - consistently voted against their interests SIMPLY for their nobility’s promise to roll-back-the-clock to the Pre-60's when THOSE PEOPLE knew their place.
Sadly yes hero-worship seems to be both genetically and psychologically wired-in. My generation has yet to experience the widescale 'bad faith' and ensuing regret and anger of the inevitable discovery that its heroes are human, all too human, but all in its due course. When my age group and younger is fully hooked into the sociobiological matrix and its education racket and home debtorship we'll be little different. We can't be, in the aggregate, as that is how the system is designed. I wasn't sure whether you thought the generations were predisposed to 1,2,3,4 types or whether your generalizations applied across all age groups. FYI my own classification scheme is shills, marks, sharks, and martyrs.
delete
Fortunately, immigration requires adequate grasp of English. And the excessive use of exclamation marks and caps is regarded as the sure sign of mental imbalance.
Guess it's Denninger-free too then? Where is this place? Take a left at Australia?
C
Yes, absolutely: "the excessive use of exclamation marks and caps is regarded as the sure sign of mental imbalance." Luckily the US pharmaceutical industry is creating a follow up to their wildly successful "restless leg syndrome " drug designed to address this problem.
Looks like an interesting start, thanks
Green shoots [sort of] for Thursday...
SEMI book-to-bill ratio climbs above parity for first time since January 2007
The July numbers are significant as they mark the first time this year and, furthermore, the first time in more than two years that the ratio has reached parity. While SEMI's tone was optimistic in reporting the data, the industry group remained cautious.
"The increases in both bookings and billings reported by North American equipment manufacturers boosted the book-to-bill ratio above parity for the first time since January, 2007,” said Stanley T Myers, president and CEO of SEMI, in a statement. “Even with that improvement, however, bookings remain significantly below year-ago figures.”
:: ::
Steel mills want $10/ton hike in wire rod prices
Best line is the subtitle... Buyers unimpressed with price-hike proposal... Ya I bet the mills want a price hike... they also want a
.
Another article in Purchasing.com suggest a similar 'hike attempt' in copper. Good luck with that.
Re: shills, marks, sharks, and martyrs
This would be part of all groups.
Shills and Sharks would part of the nobility. With the real nobility being the sharks (probably) and the Shills being the media propaganda sycophants and wanna-be-nobility.
The marks ARE the dumbasses. And all groups of dumbasses have their martyrs. Somebody famous said: A true patriot is somebody who is willing to sacrifice themselves for the country. No bigger dumbass than THAT, except the ones that sacrifice their kids, I guess.
Re: the excessive use of exclamation marks and caps
DAMN! I'm stuck HERE you mean?!
Look if you like, but it appears out of the mist only once in a hundred years.
exactly the sort of info I was looking for - thanks
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 6:33 pm
Looks like an interesting start, thanks
The real info is buried in the reports, I think. Can't wait to see what you come up with. You will share, right?
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 5:33 pm
Shills and Sharks would part of the nobility. With the real nobility being the sharks (probably) and the Shills being the media propaganda sycophants and wanna-be-nobility.
The marks ARE the dumbasses. And all groups of dumbasses have their martyrs. Somebody famous said: A true patriot is somebody who is willing to sacrifice themselves for the country. No bigger dumbass than THAT, except the ones that sacrifice their kids, I guess.
Yeah, you have the basic idea (the names should be pretty self-explanatory and are rather tongue-in-cheek!). Some people can be combinations of the four types as well, of course. Anyway, I've found it to be a useful way to organize my prejudices. Though I think you give the nobility too much credit!
Once in a hundred years? Must be hell for the export industry.
C
@ scone In other news, you can take your cat on board an airplane, as long as you follow certain rules-- carrier under the seat. You don't even have to buy kitty her own seat! That's a relief.
scone - when I relocated cross country with an aging cat (pre 9/11) we did the cat in a carrier under the seat. Unfortunately for the passenger in the seat in front of us - he was highly allergic. fortunately, they were able to move him to a different seat.
But yes, you can pay some $$, get a vet certificate, and get the airline approved carrier... and put your cat, like a carry on bag, where your feet would go. Much better than a 4 day car trip - for all involved.
Re: Must be hell for the export industry.
The ships and planes are equiped with special homing Kiwi birds before they leave. They can always find there way back this way.
The cheddar is really mature. Sadly, you are unlikely to get to taste it, because of US dairy protectionist policies.
@ ucgal - thanks! Yes, I was worried about a 4 day road trip with a screaming cat. She hates travel. But she's coming with us, for sure.
This is scary:
"Monetization of USTreasurys In Isolation" by Jim Willie, CB, FSU Editorial 08/20/2009
Monetization of USTreasurys In Isolation
by Jim Willie, CB. Editor, Hat Trick Letter | August 20, 2009
Print
Every few months a chart comes along that needs almost no follow-on paragraphs to make the point of the issue. The chart provided by CIGA Eric covers several important types of US$-based bonds, their inflow and outflow, and the aggregate GrandNet. The financial data is publicly available from the USGovt TIC Reports. The messages are clear. Inflows of foreign funds are dwindling. In the case of USAgency Mortgage Bonds and USCorp Bonds, the nation is witnessing something unprecedented, the net outflow of funds. This is outright rejection. This chart exposes the isolation problem of the USDollar in the bond world, clearly the most important market beneath the currency market. The printing press is the last option.
Click on link above for rest of story and chart porn.
I once did a relo w/ my cat. The company bought the a business class seat next to me.
Tomorrow is BFF - My eyes are on Norfolk..
This says a lot to me here: Berk has a P/E of 52.81
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)
BRK-A: Summary for BERKSHIRE HATH HLD A- Yahoo! Finance
Re: "Buffy also has a "one-dollar premise", which is based on the question: What is the market value of a dollar assigned to each dollar of retained earnings? This measure bears a strong resemblance to market value added (MVA), the ratio of market value to invested capital.
Any bites on this?
Buffy's buddies at TMF, say "oogle (Nasdaq: GOOG) has a P/E ratio of about 54, implying that investors are currently willing to pay $54 for every dollar of earnings Google generates. Similarly, Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) P/E ratio of around 16 implies that investors are currently willing to pay $16 for each buck Wal-Mart makes."
Watch Out for the P/E Ratio
Is Buffy or the S&P attractive????
Past performance is for losers.
Warren said: “Your goal as an investor should be simply to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily understood business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher, five, ten, and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet those standards—so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock.”
.... It is the underlying methodology that Warren Buffett uses to evaluate stocks and companies. Buffett condensed Williams’s theory as: “The value of a business is determined by the net cash flows expected to occur over the life of the business discounted at an appropriate interest rate.” Williams described it this way: “A cow for her milk; a hen for her eggs; and a stock, by heck, for her dividends.”
Maybe I've outlasted everyone else with similar resumes. The past two weeks I had calls for perhaps twenty jobs, most of which I ignored. Very different from the past 3 months.
The only reason to buy a stock is to sell it to someone else for more than you paid for it. PE, future earnings, growth, blah blah blah, etc. are meaningless other than it hopefully convinces someone else to take your stock off your hands at a higher price. That person has to believe the same thing when he buys.
moved to vermont because wrote
"The only reason to buy a stock is to sell it to someone else for more than you paid for it."
Ideally you already have a sucker.. I mean 'prudent investor'.... lined up to take the crap at an inflated price.
Maybe I've outlasted everyone else with similar resumes. The past two weeks I had calls for perhaps twenty jobs, most of which I ignored. Very different from the past 3 months.
A company I work with had a guy contact them and said he'd work for free just to gain experience - said he'd sent out 100's of resumes after a job training program he was involved with and nothing. We said we'd pay him but minimal until we see how good he is [things are tight at this firm]... that was two weeks ago. He just called back and said he now has multiple offers but still might work for us instead even at the lower rate [more interesting job - better long run prospect]. Definitely a different wind blowing at least in that business [non-automotive mfg].
"The only reason to buy a stock is to sell it to someone else for more than you paid for it."
Not really you used to be able to buy stocks for the long haul and collect good dividends. Now it is just pump and dump with big CEO bonuses. Casino Gambling.
It's not about performance.. it's about the Hopium !! One really big Bull bowl full of Hopium and market realities go out of the window.
Hoolahoop you're FREAKING OUT MY SKIM THREAD READING
I think many on this blog miss the underlying psychology- I suspect that most also live within their means, own a home that they can afford and avoided going deep into credit card debt. Their value systems are not based on the consumption or their material possessions.
However, for the rest who don't fall into that description the belief in an ever rising stock market and housing prices is absolutely necessary for their own sense of well being. For them to come to terms with the idea of not counting on their home as an ATM or a rising stock market to take of their 401K for retirement would also require an acceptance that their best days are behind them. Their living standards in the future will not match the past. That is a pretty dismal future to come to terms with. They NEED to believe that the stock market and housing prices will go up. (yesterday I heard that 1/3 of people believe that winning the lottery is the only way to a comfortable retirement.)
This NEED to believe makes them prime targets for all the charlatans who have a personal vested interest in pushing that meme. BTW this is not limited to J6P but also applies to many of those folks running hedge funds and managing money- who made money only because of a rising market and huge leverage. People buy lottery tickets and they buy stocks for exactly the same reason. This drives rationalists crazy- just read the comment section.
BTW other than a modest allocation to stocks- I don't play the market even though based on the foregoing analysis I should be long. But in a greater fool market my ego couldn't handle being the greater fool.
Warren said: “Your goal as an investor should be simply to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily understood TRADING CARDS whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher, five, ten, and twenty years from now. Over time, you will find only a few TRADING CARDS that meet those standards—so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of TRADING CARDS.”
That encapsulates the trader mentality.
Long run profits for traders are much less than for investors- judging by the results of Niederhoffer versus Templeton.
I have found that my value investments in the long run, usually outperform my trading investments, but that is usually through the slippage caused by losses in the short run strategies.
YMMV
That is why Templeton, Buffet, etc have made huge profits, low churn of good buys.
Someday this war's gonna end...
Interest and principal repayments on debt have replaced the traditional role of company dividends. Just thought I'd throw that out there. Instead of issuing dividends, they're paying their debt back, debt they had to take out because everyone else is taking out debt.
Peter Lynch: "Remember Polaroid and Avon Products. P/e's of 50 for companies of their size? Any astute fourth-grader could have figured it was time to sell those"
Yes - preferably a long term investor - not influenced by, or paying attention to, the silly, short sighted, day to day fluctuations of the market. Hard to understand the S&P has gone nowhere in ten years, but keep dutifully feeding your pension plans, it will all workout in the end.
Fat, Drunk and Stupid is No Way to Go Through Life
PrudentBear
He just called back and said he now has multiple offer
I have three interviews going now, none for the west coast.
One is too prestigious to ignore, the other is too much money.
I'd really tried to stay in Seattle but I'm tired of goofing with the strange provincial frosty attitude.
Sorry hoop:)
Wow, that's almost a complete negation of the arguments against C4C.
Every one of the millions of citizens and taxpayers who would rather have done something different with their share of those billions spent on C4C has an argument against it. Feel like delineating a response to each and every one of their arguments?
Good Luck, Broward.
Good luck...broward
Good luck broward - and there are interesting places out there besides the west coast.
I have three interviews going now, none for the west coast.
One is too prestigious to ignore, the other is too much money.
I've walked away from so many jobs because they offered too much money. Who the hell do they think they are? They might as well just call you superficial and slap you in the face.
BTW, best of luck broward. Hope it works out well.
Broward,
Pick one that's fun!
Here is my list of 14 Hot Stocks, if it displays:
Stock Screener Results - Yahoo! Finance
".....yesterday I heard that 1/3 of people believe that winning the lottery is the only way to a comfortable retirement."
.....and that's why we have the "magic" of Vegas...........the possibility of "rags to riches"........and, that's why we also have no state income tax, corporate tax, et al .......................
Lottery? is that kind of like a car accident and getting hit by an illegal with insurance?
Good luck, Broward! And watch that "Seattle freeze!"
The Seattle Times: Pacific Northwest Magazine : Our Social Disease
Free squirrel hunting: 8/11/2009 - Free Hunting Day in Tennessee - Outdoors - Chattanoogan.com
Just sayin.
Re: But in a greater fool market my ego couldn't handle being the greater fool.
And there's that "rationalist" part of your brain saying "This just CAN'T go on..."
My
tells me that the Beta is starting to kick in here as an issue....
Well, Power hour and yoga tonight. Hopefully more hotties show up than on Tuesday.
its tough enough not getting caught short.
There are days when I feel that it would be easier to be long and not have to keep saying "what the ****"
I feel you on that. I moved up here six years ago, and only after three finally started to melt into everything. The people here are nice to your face but not keen on actually knowing you. Most my friends are from other states, until I started dating a girl from West Seattle originally.
There's so many weird things about Seattle culture and people in terms of who they are, where they come from and their inward attitudes to other residents. You'll be missed!
BTW what sector are you in and were you on the East Side or Seattle?
Re: long
The rational part of my brain says that "long" won't work for 5 more years. But, life isn't rational.
Ok, now this is the list! To get in this club, you need a Beta of 2+ and a mkt cap of $10B+
Stock Screener Results - Yahoo! Finance
Sorry, this is same list with all data active and please note the P/E and obviously the lack of earnings!
Shit, opps
http://screen.yahoo.com/b?im=^SPC&mc=10000000000/&beta=2/&b=1&z=mc&db=stocks&vw=0
OK - the numbers I used were 400mi/week (that may be hight) $4 per gallon 457000 cars, 18(max mileage) vs. 22 so... according to my spreadsheet that results in a savings of 96M gal of gas - use your own price per gallon - note 18 mpg is the max mileage under the program the actual average mileage will be less than that number, $4 is a bit high - like I said pick you own number - finally in case you hadn't noticed people are buying less cars now than they have in a very long time so I don't really think the program is overheating the auto market.
Of course by implicitly supporting the program I am cruelly destroying cars poor people could use, suppressing future demand, giving an unfair bailout to auto companies, and going against good honest free market principals of allowing the "market" (whatever the F*%k that means) to run its course - but hey, I am a godless liberal - that's what I do.