At the risk of public humiliation, I'm going to ask a question about bottoms:
Does this mean that we cannot expect a housing bottom BEFORE the end of 2010?
Me to Pointy: Bob, we (looking at Bob, implying we = you) are levelsetting our tablesteaks and competencying our cross-channel zombification project.
Bob to group: This is GREAT news. It shows what team-work can accomplish in a holistic going-forward space. Team, I'd like you to meet your new executive VP in charge of strategic zombification (looks at me).
Oh yeah, my wife asked you travelers out there to give her some tips on places to eat in Chicago. She is staying downtown. On her way on business next week, first time...and I haven't been there since Happy Meals were my cuisine of choice. Boys and me don't get to go on this one...
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:23 pm
Oh yeah, my wife asked you travelers out there to give her some tips on places to eat in Chicago. She is staying downtown. On her way on business next week, first time...and I haven't been there since Happy Meals were my cuisine of choice. Boys and me don't get to go on this one...Crying
We had a good time at Famous Dave's. I also recall eating at a place right on the river that runs through downtown, but I can recall the name.
"But in general I'd expect further declines in house prices - especially in mid-to-high end areas."
As the hope of meaningful price appreciation vanishes, prices in high-end areas will have to come down to what the family income of residents will support. And believe me, prices have a ways to go to get there. And if residential income continues dropping, they'll have even further.
There will always be high-end "discretionary" buys and enclaves of higher price to those whom price is not so much an issue; but they will not support the the larger market.
Read a really good book about the Anasazi, called "House of Rain-Tracking the Ghosts of a Lost Civilization in the American Southwest" by Craig Childs.
He makes a persuasive case of what happened to the Anasazi after climate change had it's way with them, way back when...
I make broward look normal ?
would one consider that a John the Baptist conversion to normalcy?
if anyone checked American Cong blog that picture isn't me, in fact,
not sure who it is... some designer who was standing next to Anna Wintour -
guess I'll have to phone her to find out...
people are always offering up thread music here well here's something from a
guy named Johnny Dynell - one of the founders of Jackie 60's in '91, later became
Mother. the club mix was 80/20 gay-straight and Dynell is a genius and so is his
wife Chi Chi Valenti... http://www.mrblacknyc.com/podcast/audio/johnny_dynell_gary49_july2008.m4a
....
JD still has it going on...!
JD,
It is just a synopsis of the paper but just read this: Changes in Net Flow of Ocean Heat Correlate with Past Climate Anomalies
Thought it was interesting, I need to see the whole paper though before passing judgment. More observation without understanding what really drives the cycle at first glace though.
Giordano's for pizza. Frontera Grill or Topolobombo for upscale Mexican food (Bayless just opened a 3rd place, can't remember the name). Heaven on 7 for cajun food. And of course Billy Goat's for cheeseburgers (no coke, pepsi).
TCA, ha! Yes, there are now 52 states (including D.C. and Puerto Rico). OK - I added a note ...
Juvenal Delinquent, been there a few times. I've heard others call it Pinochet Pass too. I've heard the most complaining at Glen Pass because of the steepness (not my group, but people we've passed).
CR, I'm curious why in some states (FL, CA, AZ for instance) the percent in the foreclosure process (red on the chart) is about 50% of the delinquency rate, while in many other states the percent in the foreclosure process seems to be a much smaller percentage compared to the delinquency rate. Could it be that these other states just aren't as far along in the process of working through the problems?
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:36 pm
About double the big dig; not tooooo bad-
Yes.
At least you're getting something for your money with CALPERS.
Huh!? The Big Dig is actually pretty nice. The problems are now the SE Expressway which was not impacted (i.e.not improved) by the Big Dig. My main complaint about it is they keep raising gas taxes to help pay for it, and I only use it about 5 times a year.
homedad,
I hear you. One of the reasons we decided not to go. My 4 year old is very well behaved, but his 18month (wait there goes the time again) 19month brother is a real terror right now. One of those times when your personal desires and your parental responsibilities don't quite reconcile themselves.
Re: Thought it was interesting, I need to see the whole paper though before passing judgment
Wouldn't it be MORE interesting to see what the climate-change-version of Jim Cramer thought about it? That would be what most REAL Mericans would think too. Who cares what someone thinks who takes the time to read "facts". Facts are meaningless. Ask Jim.
no, FL and much of the southwest had the same problem - average houses in working class neighborhoods which moved from 50-150K to 350+ in a few years, with no income to support those kinds of values.
Some spots I like that won't show up in the travel books (but maybe they're too inexpensive to be suitable for expense account travel? I'm more of the dryfly persuasion when it comes to dining out):
Cafe Iberico (tapas bar, on LaSalle about a half mile or so north of the river)
Brasserie Jo (french bistro just across the river on Hubbard, they do a nice choucroute)
and a couple of places I really like but require a taxi or subway ride to Lakeview (both are on Clark St. about 1/2 to 3/4 mile south of Wrigley):
Duke of Perth (pies, fish and chips, good whiskey, and they know how to serve a proper Scottish beer..i.e., not ice cold)
Andalous (Moroccan food--absolutely delicious but the service can be poor if not rude)
Indian food on Devon is outstanding but that's a long haul from downtown. Mysore Woodlands would be my first choice if pressed.
There's probably a Chicagoan here to offer a bad word against every place I've named.
I had a friend who made a living for 5 years or so painting watercolors of what the big dig would look like when it was done. It seems that she had a knack for making it look less ugly than it would in real life - a valuable skill.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:34 pm
JD,
It is just a synopsis of the paper but just read this:
Changes in Net Flow of Ocean Heat Correlate with Past Climate Anomalies
Thought it was interesting, I need to see the whole paper though before passing judgment. More observation without understanding what really drives the cycle at first glace though.
When I got home last night, my wife was 'ing about some climate summit where the folks were talking about putting aerosols into the atmosphere to stave off warming. Perhaps they should review the unbiased data before launching into such schemes.
“Some New Mexico auto dealers have backed out of the cash-for-clunkers program and more may do so as the federal government takes its time providing cash reimbursements. Dealers across the state are owed more than $3.6 million, according to a dealers’ group which says that so far Uncle Sam has only written three checks totaling about $14,000.” Dealers stiffed as clunkers pile up (Apologies if this was posted already, I didn't see it)
homedad43 - That's not to say these figures aren't extreme. I think Brinkmann is right - this figure will probably hit what looks to be a bottom around the end of 2010. Although I fully expect a double dip.
Does this mean that we cannot expect a housing bottom BEFORE the end of 2010?
It's all in how you define 'bottom'. Prices? Foreclosure percentages? Counts? Whatever the case, don't expect housing to come roaring back anytime soon.
A friend of mine claimed that the dealer required their signature on a waiver.
If the gov't fails to pay the Clunker rebate, the car buyer is personally liable for the clunker amount.
How's that for a stimulus?
Did the MBA factor in that by next year it will be common knowledge among the proles that the best way to increase your income is to quit paying your mortgage?
Why does it matter where a member of PT's #2's nobility puts his dick? How is that relavent to the statement "this woman" was asking and Barnie's response?
"Brinkmann expects foreclosures to peak at the end of 2010" ............unless governnment types keep messing around with "Help the Homeowner" programs........then it's a wild guess.....2030, 2035?........(please don't assume my position on it.......thnx.)
It seems the mess can't clean itself up without there first being a "bottom". There is no "bottom" until the "bouncing, flopping, and jerking around" quits.
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:46 pm
Pearls of Wisdom, from Rush: ( No not much of a fan, just nothing else worth listing to )
"The killer for me was Barney Frank saying to this woman, ‘What planet do you live on?’
Isn't it an established fact that Barney Frank himself spends most of his time living around Uranus?”
I don't listen to him either, but I have to admit that he's pretty funny most of the time. My only complaint would be about his ridicule of MJ Fox's medical condition and the whole prescription drug addiction. I'm in pain everyday and rarely even take aspirin, though at my age, I should probably start.
CR - There appears to be an interesting regional variation in the foreclosure-to-delinquency ratio, with the South (excluding the non-Southern state of Florida) appearing to lag in foreclosures.
Anyone know if this based on some variation in foreclosure procedures in that region? If not, what else might explain it?
Michael Pettis has an interesting article up on the Asian Savings glut hypothesis. Which came first, American consumption or the Asian savings glut. His take in the long term ramifications of each case are quite interesting.
GM is pre-paying their dealers for C4C transactions. Nice of GM to reimburse their dealers tired of waiting on the government reinbursements...er...wait a minute
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:48 pm
.....There is no "bottom" until the "bouncing, flopping, and jerking around" quits.
Is this a fat chick reference?
"A friend of mine claimed that the dealer required their signature on a waiver.
If the gov't fails to pay the Clunker rebate, the car buyer is personally liable for the clunker amount.
How's that for a stimulus? "
A lot of desperate dealers esp the ones who are closing as ordered by the American Kremlin had nothing to lose. They needed to move inventory or be stuck with those pos forever.
".....cutting loose of CA and OR would probably make more sense in the short term-"
.......damn - our town would then be a "border town". Would that mean we'd have cheaper dental here? What about "bordellos" and 24-hour bars?....Oh wait.....we already have those....
ottnott, on the conference call, Brinkmann said this was related to the process in each state. That is why I think adding the two numbers makes sense. But these are all delinquencies (30+ days), so maybe I should do a chart of seriously delinquent plus foreclosures.
CR,
When you say most delinquencies will cure, do you simply mean >50%?
I think most housing experts have not updated their models to get accurate cure rates in this recession.
Several unique factors will cause recoveries and cure rates to be significantly lower than previous times of high delinquency periods.
Namely, higher LTVs, more incentives and less negative sentiment for defaulters, and higher DTI ratios.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:54 pm
ROFL........thnx, Cinco.......I needed that.
I'm a little disappointed; yesterday I got someone to spit coffee, or spew it through their nose or something. I'll need to work harder I guess; too bad there's no porn allowed here
I think that's a good observation. They're in the process of blowing another bubble, and that's why I'm optimistic in the short run, but pessimistic in the long run. Absent any fundamental reform of the system--and I haven't seen any--they'll attempt to re-inflate and, in the process of doing so, the system will probably fail.
Some time ago, I think it was Gordon Brown who said to Alan Greenspan that everyone was pretty well agreed that the only way to cure a burst bubble was to blow another one.
Without having read the Pettis piece, my theory is that the savings glut hypothesis is a smokescreen used to divert attention from the reckless credit expansion caused by regulators increasing allowable leverage limits for banks and encouraging securitization, derivatives, and off-balance sheet entities.
It won't work to blow another bubble. There has been a 50% haircut in wealth over the last 2 years worldwide. Write-downs or crippling inflation is the only answer.
My impression is hardly any foreclosures are curing in the traditional sense. Unless you count short
sales as curing? Losing 10s to 100s of thousands of dollars is not what I think of as curing.
I track foreclosure notices in the Jackson, MS area, specifically Hinds County, through the legal notices in the Clarion Ledger. Notices run 3 consecutive weeks and then the sale takes place. For example on Thursday August 6 there were 29 new NOD's. The following Thursday 8/13 still 29 (no apparent cures) The final Thursday publication 8/20 there were still 27 of the original 29. No way to easily track how many ultimately went to sale but probably a healthy percentage. Today there were 30 BRAND NEW first time NOD's. Over the last 4-6 weeks I have seen a substantial INCREASE in BofA/Countrywide NOD's. There must be a huge shadow inventory still out there waiting for the hammer to drop. I reside in a small town about 15 miles NW of Jackson and the real estate market is absolutely dead. I am currently a FSBO and have seen values drop drastically in the last 2-3 years. I'm pricing at next year's perceived value (lower than today's) and still virtually no action. Grim. Fortunately for us the property is F/C so it WILL get sold eventually but its painful to contemplate equity vaporizing that would have gone into the next property. I'm sure there are a million stories like this out there.
Kung Fu, I recommend reading his article. Well balanced and his main point is that the long term outcome both here and in Asia changes dramatically based on which actually came first.
"Mean people are usually mean to everybody. When Rush and his dumbasses run out of THOSE PEOPLE to hate, you're next. '
It's the old "waiter" test. If you want to see what someone is made of, see how he/she treats waiters, someone who is 1) perceived below him in social class and 2) pretty much at his mercy -- his tip is discretionary.
What you perceive there is the base personality. They may be nice to you -- as long as they need you.
mrconsulting, Just to be clear, I wrote "many would cure" - not "most". I doubt it is close to a 50% cure rate now - and I'm trying to find the numbers.
I think the mod programs will make the cure rate look better, but it will still probably be below 50%.
Kung.Fu.Panda (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 1:00 pm
Without having read the Pettis piece, my theory is that the savings glut hypothesis is a smokescreen used to divert attention from the reckless credit expansion caused by regulators increasing allowable leverage limits for banks and encouraging securitization, derivatives, and off-balance sheet entities.
Correct; diss'ing the Asians for being "enablers" is a bogus argument. Of course, TPTB are more interested in getting votes than making sense, and only make sense when it seems as though that will get them more votes.
I think one should look at the stock market from late May on as another bubble, flat out.
Why else would the market and oil go up nearly in lockstep, even as demand for oil looks paucid?
The market can keep going longer than I could stay solvent fighting it, but stepping outside and doing nothing having captured 90% of the runup is good enough for now.
At this point, the chance of picking up more gain versus the chance of losing large amounts again is too great.
I agree with MP, months on the outside, a boring sideways market from here is the best outcome, which almost never happens.
MP, how good of shape were those tools you bought for 10 cents?
I agree that late 2010 will have foreclosures peaking.
Lord help us in Florida.
I do think that you might see fixed rates going higher and ARMs slowing or diminishing, because
the rates dropping because of the the indexes dropping. Of course this doesn't apply so much
for high margin loans. The typical person I closed didn't understand the idea of the margin.
I tried to explain, but I fear in vain. So low margin types didn't even appreciate what they were
getting.
Yes, Intel is flying us out and paying for a hotel, for a week, as a house hunting trip. Sadly, they don't do the whole "buy your house and move you" deal. Haven't for many years. But they will help as much as they can. Very decent, actually.
Geez, my jealous bone is going. I plan on picking up a new to me table saw out of this crash- next summer looks about right.
Right now I have some lapidary stuff to liquidate next on ebay- it will be interesting to see what it brings- I have a whole $40 invested in two boxes full. I think the silver jewelry solder alone covers my nut.
Oh, I agree, but some of the newer hobby stuff will have almost no hours on it.
It becomes a tradeoff between maintenance and the desire for fancy new bells and whistles. A sawstop at a bargain price would be nice;-}
Time and effort will tell. I might have to restart some of my stalled projects as soon as the weather cools a bit. I have a gas tank to pull and get purged, and then my old pickup is back in service..
The reason I ask, is we know several Brits, who have called it quits, and went back home recently.
I was told by a local that vacancies are rising rapidly in Battery Park City, the huge development between Ground Zero and the Hudson River, because Europeans who had been leasing/renting space were heading home in droves, being called back.
==========
yep, had friends there that moved back to europe already, very happy to go back and being closer to family. ... i wonder whether i'll have any friends staying in usa sometimes...
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 1:04 pm
"Mean people are usually mean to everybody. When Rush and his dumbasses run out of THOSE PEOPLE to hate, you're next. '
It's the old "waiter" test. If you want to see what someone is made of, see how he/she treats waiters, someone who is 1) perceived below him in social class and 2) pretty much at his mercy -- his tip is discretionary.
What makes you think that Rush Limbaugh is a bad tipper?
A google search yields:
The New York Times did an article on Rush about a year ago and reported that Rush is big tipper.
and
"MS-NBC apparently took no chances on questions from the crowd. Rather than get caught with a question that might make Republicans look good, their producer pre-screened questioners, and Chris Matthews pretended it was random.
-- Republicans were good tippers. MS-NBC stiffed the drivers.
-- Media people talked in the cars about how effective the Republican convention turned out to be, while publicly saying something else entirely."
and
34 Notoriously Bad Celebrity Tippers
1. Madonna - Doesn’t always leave a tip, when she does it’s a cheap one.
2. Kelly Presten - Notoriously bad tipper. Most of the time she doesn’t leave a tip at all.
3. Gwyneth Paltrow - Doesn’t leave a decent tip. It’s speculated she has trouble calculating the proper percentage.
4. Barbra Streisand - Doesn’t always tip. When she does it’s $10 for a bill of over $450. She’s very high maintenance and demanding and no one ever wants to wait on her.
5. Tobey Maguire - Doesn’t always leave a tip, and when he does it isn’t generous.
6. Bill Cosby - Once left a $3 tip on a $350 order. He probably thinks the waitstaff needs to stop taking from others and get a real job.
7. Ricki Lake - Once left a tip of $8.00 on a $142.44 bill. This after she let her young son run around the restaurant unattended - and he supposedly made a big mess.
8. Bobby Brown - Rude to wait staff, lets his kids run amuk and left a $10 gratuity on a $250 restaurant tab.
9. Sean Penn - He and three others had New Orleans waiters waiting on them hand and foot. The tip left on a $450 tab? Absolutely nothing. There are lots of instances of Sean Penn stiffing waitstaff. How many people do you think have spit in his food by now?
10. Kirsten Dunst - According to one server she’s whiny and smells bad. Left nothing behind after racking up a $223 bill.
11. Dan Marino - Wouldn’t talk to server directly, had to have a member of his entourage handle it. Tipped $10 on $210.
12. David Lee Roth - Is known to be demanding and send food back. Tips 10%.
13. Duane “Dog the Bounty Hunter” Chapman - He and his wife are considered to be very high maintenance. They expect the VIP treatment and only tip %5. At a TGI Fridays in Waikiki they paid $10 for a $250 tab.
14. Rupert Everett - Listed as one of the worst tippers ever.
15. David Byrne - The Talking Heads frontman is considered one of the worst tippers ever because he doesn’t leave anything, ever.
16. Molly Ringwald - Bar tab was the equivalent of twenty-five cents for each round of drinks her large entourage consumed.
17. Diddy - Left a $40 tip for his meal - a dinner for 15 people.
18. Richard Dreyfuss - Bad tipper and high maintenance “whiny” client.
19. Michael Moore - Once left less than $20 on a bill totally $452.52.
20. Jesse Jackson - Left $20 on a $228 tab.
21. John Kerry - Left $20 on a tab of over $700!
22. Britney Spears - Once tipped a valet by dropping change on the ground and telling him “there’s your tip”. Also paid a $26 tip on a $500 tab.
23. Tiger Woods - Doesn’t tip because he says he doesn’t carry cash.
24. Usher - Never tips and always tries to get someone else to pick up the bill.
25. Rachel Ray - Tipped $1 on a $10 tab. Probably didn’t want to go under her $40 a day allowance.
26. Victoria Beckham and Katie Holmes - Dined together in an upscale restaurant and didn’t leave a tip.
27. Tom Green - Once left $15 on a $175 tab.
28. Paul McCartney - Once left a restaurant too drunk to leave a tip.
29. Regis - Once left cruise staff a $60 tip for an entire week’s worth of personal service. His wife is said to be very high maintenance and the ship’s crew was happy when she left two days early.
30. Marty Stuart - Leaves 7% - his wife is very demanding.
31. Don Henley - Very demanding, keeps staff members on their toes, tips 15%.
32. D’Angelo - Once left $7.00 on a $250 tab. The tab should have been over $500, mind you, but the r&b singer and his entourage nagged until they got a discount.
33. Mariah Carey - Once had her people call ahead to a restaurant to let them know she was arriving with a very large party. The restaurant stayed open late, and Mariah and crew were very diva-ish with their demands. Despite keeping staffers jumping and a high tab, no one left a tip.
34. Marion Jones - Left $3 on a $45 tab.
The Labor Department reports the number of first-time jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 last week, from a revised figure of 561,000. Trend following economists expected a drop to 550,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Aug. 1 were in Puerto Rico (7.3 percent), Oregon (6.2), Pennsylvania (6.1), Michigan (5.9), Nevada (5.9), Wisconsin (5.5), California (5.3), Connecticut (5.3), New Jersey (5.3), North Carolina (5.1), and South Carolina (5.1).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Aug. 8 were in Tennessee (+2,525), North Carolina (+2,469), Wisconsin (+2,078), Georgia (+1,753), and Washington (+1,697), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,635), Michigan (-1,490), Ohio (-951), Kentucky (-690), and Delaware (-226).
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
wage earnings peaked on 1975, the savings rate decreased during the 80s, 90s, 2000s... this as the population was aging and having to save for retirement.
the problem is people believing they have a lifestyle to support instead of defining the lifestyle that can be supported by earnings imho. what level of consumption defines the middle-class has to go down when their discretionary income ends up being a third of what it was, that simple. maybe part of the increases of the standard of living post WWII were cause of the demographic boom there was... now we are gonna suffer the other side of hte coin... the cost of those guys aging.
Increase in credit outstanding in first half was interpreted bullishly, but has stopped since mid-June. “This may mean that stimulus to business in the form of credit expansion induced by Federal Reserve policy has reached its effective limits ...
Editorial: Labor Sec. Davis has favored higher wages for foreign workers to increase their purchasing power and prosperity. This is putting the cart before the horse. The more important way to help foreign workers is by free markets so their products can be sold here
Bulls encouraged by resistance to repeated bear efforts Saturday and Monday following explosive rise Friday; buying movement spread broadly across the market early. Major industrials strong including US Steel, GE, Westinghouse, as were major utilities and rails
Conservative observers even more cautious than usual; believe recent rally due to oversold condition, and decline will resume when short-covering ends.
Some market students encouraged by repeated support above June lows, advise buying leading stocks if they again approach these levels. News from 1930
NOTE: This is global household wealth. Not counting write downs of debt for corporations.
"According to Morgan Stanley's estimates, the result of the current financial crisis has been a destruction of world wealth, which since mid 2007 has amounted to approximately $20trn (or down 16 per cent from its peak, which has been estimated at $125trn by the United Nations)."
The losses are closer to 30 trillion now IMO if you count further RE declines this year.
60 Trillion of the UN figure is 125 Trillion is all DEBT. The other 60 trillion was asset values RE, Stocks.
"It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem."
I think it's highly unlikely that we're going to see any regulatory reform.
Yes, Intel is flying us out and paying for a hotel, for a week, as a house hunting trip. Sadly, they don't do the whole "buy your house and move you" deal. Haven't for many years. But they will help as much as they can. Very decent, actually.
Good luck- let me know if I can help (I'm in north central MA)
Yeah, I was worried about that comment. Leads to the "is so" "is not" nonsence.
The PT's # 1's are primarily mean and exclusionary to outsiders (THOSE PEOPLE).
The PT's # 2's are primarily guilt-ridden and inclusionary of outsiders.
These two types aren't going to agree on anything, except (maybe) sports and the weather.
Friend of mine just had escrow fall through on selling his house. The offer was FHA and required two appraisals. The second appraisal came in $14k low, killed the funding.
To follow up from above we have 30-40 trillion in assets and 60+Trillion in debt. Either the assets must be inflated 100% or we need some major write downs of at least another 30 Trillion dollars.
Of course we could have a mix of inflation and write downs but even a 10 trillion dollar write down could wipe 50+% from global equities.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 1:06 pm replyIgnore userfdic easing its restrictions on PE owning banks, no final rule yet. not sure if this is good or bad.
then there's this...
FDIC clawback reflects US strategy shift
By Julie MacIntosh and Joanna Chung in New York
Published: August 18 2009 22:51 | Last updated: August 18 2009 22:51
US regulators are starting to structure bank rescue deals so as to limit the potential gains of buyers, a strategy shift that could deflect political criticism of the cost of bank bail-outs.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the insurer of US bank deposits, sealed its first such “clawback” arrangement on Friday as part of its deal to sell $21.8bn of assets in Colonial, a bank seized by Alabama regulators, to BB&T. FT.com / Companies / Banks - FDIC clawback reflects US strategy shift
I must go... trying to divine who Comrade Duch's defense witnesses are going to be in a few weeks...
... I have come up with a brilliant strategy for his defense - I, myself and Irene ?
how is my insipid factor coming along? getting the voice right takes works...
on a somber note the pain I saw in the courtroom today was not easy to witness....
You can sort of forgive David Byrne...he is an existentialist after all...I mean if he did leave a tip...it would take him ages to figure out how much and what the consequences of such an action might bring...and if the service of the server actually existed anyway......
Side note, as an absent minded philosopher I do not have a perfect record as a tipper, but when I do remember...I tip well.
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
wage earnings peaked on 1975, the savings rate decreased during the 80s, 90s, 2000s... the problem is people believing they have a lifestyle to support instead of defining the lifestyle that can be supported by earnings imho. what level of consumption defines the middle-class has to go down when their discretionary income ends up being a third of what it was, that simple.
Friend of mine just had escrow fall through on selling his house. The offer was FHA and required two appraisals. The second appraisal came in $14k low, killed the funding.
NARM,
22 or 20 is good impressive for a cat. Can I ask the breed? I've always had Maine Coons or MC mixes and they are famous for their heart problems. Like golden retreivers, who have issues with agressive cancer, they don't last very long.
Re: I would love to know just who is buying this market.
I thought we knew:
First it was the people that are getting the free money.
Then it was the very smart people that understand the "market" doesn't care what the "correct righteous and just" direction is.
Then it was the gamblers.
Then it was the pension funds.
Then the peasants.
I think that because the middle and high end markets have much further to fall, the govt is going to try to get involved and bail out even more people. The govt has demonstrated that they are going to continue to throw money at the failed institutions to try to clean up their mess. This will continue to have negative consequences for our currency, as their main remedy for all of these problems is money printing and stimulus, which is essentially debt. And one of the only ways for most people to protect and potentially prosper from this is by investing in those assets that should rise from all the money printing, such as gold and other commodities. This is a good discussion on a mining company, Mines Management that is developing a large silver and copper mine with a huge deposit base and that trades in the lower range of silver companies per ounce of silver.
I think it's highly unlikely that we're going to see any regulatory reform.
I think it's a certainty that we'll see regulatory reform, once everyone has a chance to sit around the table and hash out a plan that won't actually change anything. A perfect example would be Captain Ned's post last night about the recent Supreme Court ruling that allows states to prosecute nationally chartered banks for violation of state consumer protection laws but doesn't allow the state regulatory bodies to be involved in the investigation. Since it's the regulatory bodies, not the state AGs, that are equipped to investigate such charges, in the real world nothing has happened at all. But it looks good and confidence is restored....
I think this is turning into one of those Decon Blues Steely Dan kind of days...
they got a name for the winners in the world
I want a a name when I lose
She's a generic SPCA tabby cat. The kinda cat you'd see in the dictionary with one of those pin-n-ink drawing. Doesn't like anybody but me, and my spouce. Can't stand the 2nd cat (who likes everybody).
I may have had an epiphany reading one of Matt Taibbi's articles yesterday. It was the one originally published in Rolling Stone in April.
He specifically highlighted Feb 18th, 2009 as the day that the Fed's QE kicked into high gear by replacing the historic Repo position with all the new alphabet soup of lending programs and guarantees. From the story...
The reason the number {of repos} has dropped to nothing is that the Fed had simply stopped using relatively transparent devices like repurchase agreements to pump its money into the hands of private companies. By early 2009, a whole series of new government operations had been invented to inject cash into the economy, most all of them completely secretive and with names you've never heard of. There is the Term Auction Facility, the Term Securities Lending Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and a monster called the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (boasting the chat-room horror-show acronym ABCPMMMFLF). For good measure, there's also something called a Money Market Investor Funding Facility, plus three facilities called Maiden Lane I, II and III to aid bailout recipients like Bear Stearns and AIG.
That this began a few weeks before the market began its immaculate bull run seems more than coincidental. Or do I just need to remove
mp - the optimism in the short run may actually help a lot of people. If things spike up, that gives people more opportunity to prepare for "the big one." Prescient people, anyway.
I have a hunch participating on this blog is more beneficial to the aging mind than doing crossword puzzles, which has traditionally been the method I've heard to keep your brain sharp.
Just like exercising can be addictive to some people, the mental exercise here seems addicting.
ottnott - The regional variation is due to different timelines - so some loans hang around in FC status for a longer period of time. In some states, a foreclosure takes, on average, a very long time to complete (cf. Massachusetts) - whereas, in other states, the process is relatively quick. As we say in Texas, it's "post 'em and roast 'em".
To those wondering who is buying... I'm buying a condo in Boulder. The apartment complex I'm currently living at is raising rents 9% (not a typo), so suddenly it is cheaper to buy than to rent (even assuming -2% annual depreciation over the next 5 years!). I would rather let mortgage lenders compete for my business than just hand over the money to a slimy landlord.
"To those wondering who is buying... I'm buying a condo in Boulder. The apartment complex I'm currently living at is raising rents 9% (not a typo), so suddenly it is cheaper to buy than to rent (even assuming -2% annual depreciation over the next 5 years!). I would rather let mortgage lenders compete for my business than just hand over the money to a slimy landlord. "
Get your foreclosure or be priced out forever.
Edit: Nemooooooooooo!
Puerto Rico is now a state? Did I miss something?
I may have figured out the solution to California's budget crisis... A foreclosure tax.
At the risk of public humiliation, I'm going to ask a question about bottoms:
Does this mean that we cannot expect a housing bottom BEFORE the end of 2010?
Me fantasizing:
Me to Pointy: Bob, we (looking at Bob, implying we = you) are levelsetting our tablesteaks and competencying our cross-channel zombification project.
Bob to group: This is GREAT news. It shows what team-work can accomplish in a holistic going-forward space. Team, I'd like you to meet your new executive VP in charge of strategic zombification (looks at me).
Oh yeah, my wife asked you travelers out there to give her some tips on places to eat in Chicago. She is staying downtown. On her way on business next week, first time...and I haven't been there since Happy Meals were my cuisine of choice. Boys and me don't get to go on this one...
Winston (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:22 pm
Hey, I'm in California and I had to help pay for the big dig, so fair's fair.
What are the outstanding liabilities of CALPERS?
FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!!
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
TCA - did you miss the FDIC mission to PR? From memory the C&D 90 days runs out this weekend...
Formal union of states is sooo last century.
Is the poll up for BFF already?
C
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:23 pm
Oh yeah, my wife asked you travelers out there to give her some tips on places to eat in Chicago. She is staying downtown. On her way on business next week, first time...and I haven't been there since Happy Meals were my cuisine of choice. Boys and me don't get to go on this one...Crying
We had a good time at Famous Dave's. I also recall eating at a place right on the river that runs through downtown, but I can recall the name.
What are the outstanding liabilities of CALPERS?
The retirees.
The timing makes sense to me.
I expect prices to bottom around April 2011.
Then, my house "investment" will start really paying off!
HH,
Interesting observation, esp as the front month nat gas contract is down 4.6% and sporting a 2 handle... UNG is not showing the same behavior as GAZ. Have to be some sweaty oil & gas co's seeing that price...
.
edit for HH post
Comment by energyecon from thread 'MBA: Record 13.2 Percent of Mortgage Loans in Foreclosure or Delinquent in Q2'
"But in general I'd expect further declines in house prices - especially in mid-to-high end areas."
As the hope of meaningful price appreciation vanishes, prices in high-end areas will have to come down to what the family income of residents will support. And believe me, prices have a ways to go to get there. And if residential income continues dropping, they'll have even further.
There will always be high-end "discretionary" buys and enclaves of higher price to those whom price is not so much an issue; but they will not support the the larger market.
Vonbek 777:
The flipside of not going though is the money that you save.
On one hand, it was cool to see Vancouver and San Diego, but it took months to dig out of the financial hole.
The other upside is that you don't have to sit on a flight between two airsick boys holding pukebags to each face.
Yeah, that was a great flight...
Calpers has about $29 billion in unfunded liabilities.
One of those graphs looks just like Pinchot Pass on the JMT, which my wife instead called "Pinochet Pass". It was a torture getting there...
ha
Death in Detroit
Even houses die in the land of the UAW. There are an estimated 10,000 abandoned homes in the city of union solidarity
Feral Houses | sweet juniper!
Funny how nature has away of taking it all back.
New saying: Green shoots == Crabgrass
Housing Recovery? Green Shoots "More Like Crabgrass," Weaver Says
M-F (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:25 pm
FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!! FLORIDA'S # 1 !!!!
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Perhaps, but Bama moved from bottom 10 to the middle of the pack in, what was it, a week. Told'ja there was a shoe about to drop there-
Read a really good book about the Anasazi, called "House of Rain-Tracking the Ghosts of a Lost Civilization in the American Southwest" by Craig Childs.
He makes a persuasive case of what happened to the Anasazi after climate change had it's way with them, way back when...
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:27 pm
What are the outstanding liabilities of CALPERS?
The retirees.
Well, if you don't need to worry about the folks in the program that have yet to retire, then it's a
I think this calls for the Barney song again...
I Owe You (Barney)
I owe you
you owe me
we're an oligopoly
with a great big hug, payments missed from me to you
wont you say you owe me too!
I owe you
you owe me
we're best friends as friends should be
with a great big hug, payments missed from me to you
wont you say you owe me too!
I make broward look normal ?
would one consider that a John the Baptist conversion to normalcy?
if anyone checked American Cong blog that picture isn't me, in fact,
not sure who it is... some designer who was standing next to Anna Wintour -
guess I'll have to phone her to find out...
people are always offering up thread music here well here's something from a
guy named Johnny Dynell - one of the founders of Jackie 60's in '91, later became
Mother. the club mix was 80/20 gay-straight and Dynell is a genius and so is his
wife Chi Chi Valenti...
http://www.mrblacknyc.com/podcast/audio/johnny_dynell_gary49_july2008.m4a
....
JD still has it going on...!
Yeah, but did the Anasazi have Zillow to follow the cliff-dwelling price collapse?
And the chiefs just kept issuing more wampum beads...
"I think this calls for the Barney song again..."
Very good. You sound like somebody who had to watch the purple dino 'way too often with the kiddies or grandkids. My condolences
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:27 pm
The timing makes sense to me.
I expect prices to bottom around April 2011.
Then, my house "investment" will start really paying off!
If you have an affordable place to live, it's already "paying off". Just keep repeating that
Kiddies, no grandkids yet.
JD,
It is just a synopsis of the paper but just read this:
Changes in Net Flow of Ocean Heat Correlate with Past Climate Anomalies
Thought it was interesting, I need to see the whole paper though before passing judgment. More observation without understanding what really drives the cycle at first glace though.
Winston (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:28 pm
Calpers has about $29 billion in unfunded liabilities.
About double the big dig; not tooooo bad-
Surrealistic Zillow shows my house value up $20k this year! Wooohoo.
Giordano's for pizza. Frontera Grill or Topolobombo for upscale Mexican food (Bayless just opened a 3rd place, can't remember the name). Heaven on 7 for cajun food. And of course Billy Goat's for cheeseburgers (no coke, pepsi).
"Surrealistic Zillow shows my house value up $20k this year! Wooohoo. "
And you can take that to the bank, year after year. Soon things will be back to normal! I better leave work and buy a house.
About double the big dig; not tooooo bad-
Yes.
At least you're getting something for your money with CALPERS.
If you have an affordable place to live, it's already "paying off". Just keep repeating that
Ha, it is not affordable, but it is a place to live and the calculus of walk away doesn't work (for now).
TCA, ha! Yes, there are now 52 states (including D.C. and Puerto Rico). OK - I added a note ...
Juvenal Delinquent, been there a few times. I've heard others call it Pinochet Pass too. I've heard the most complaining at Glen Pass because of the steepness (not my group, but people we've passed).
best to all
Shnaps from last thread:
Checked out your comment re foreclosures and delinquencies.
Point taken.
Thanks.
Ritholz:
• Cash balances plunge to 3.5%, lowest since July’07;
• Highest equity allocation (34% from 7%) since Oct’07;
• Bond allocation (-28% from -12%) lowest since April’07.
• Tech (28%) is the most favored sector everywhere;
• 75% believe the world economy will strengthen in the coming 12 months (highest reading since November 2003 and up from 63% in July).
• 70% of the panel respondents expect global corporate profits to rise in the coming year, up from 51% last month.
• Confidence about corporate health is at its highest since January 2004
While I keep hearing about cash on the sidelines,. the professionals seem to be “All In.”
CR, I'm curious why in some states (FL, CA, AZ for instance) the percent in the foreclosure process (red on the chart) is about 50% of the delinquency rate, while in many other states the percent in the foreclosure process seems to be a much smaller percentage compared to the delinquency rate. Could it be that these other states just aren't as far along in the process of working through the problems?
Hehe funny I was on zillow earlier also, yup sure enough up $20,000...Pauses! " What to do with all this new found wealth".....
..............
......
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:36 pm
About double the big dig; not tooooo bad-
Yes.
At least you're getting something for your money with CALPERS.
Huh!? The Big Dig is actually pretty nice. The problems are now the SE Expressway which was not impacted (i.e.not improved) by the Big Dig. My main complaint about it is they keep raising gas taxes to help pay for it, and I only use it about 5 times a year.
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:36 pm
If you have an affordable place to live, it's already "paying off". Just keep repeating that
Ha, it is not affordable, but it is a place to live and the calculus of walk away doesn't work (for now).
The whole point of a mantra is to clear your mind of unpleasant thoughts.
homedad,
I hear you. One of the reasons we decided not to go. My 4 year old is very well behaved, but his 18month (wait there goes the time again) 19month brother is a real terror right now. One of those times when your personal desires and your parental responsibilities don't quite reconcile themselves.
Re: Thought it was interesting, I need to see the whole paper though before passing judgment
Wouldn't it be MORE interesting to see what the climate-change-version of Jim Cramer thought about it? That would be what most REAL Mericans would think too. Who cares what someone thinks who takes the time to read "facts". Facts are meaningless. Ask Jim.
no, FL and much of the southwest had the same problem - average houses in working class neighborhoods which moved from 50-150K to 350+ in a few years, with no income to support those kinds of values.
Some spots I like that won't show up in the travel books (but maybe they're too inexpensive to be suitable for expense account travel? I'm more of the dryfly persuasion when it comes to dining out):
Cafe Iberico (tapas bar, on LaSalle about a half mile or so north of the river)
Brasserie Jo (french bistro just across the river on Hubbard, they do a nice choucroute)
and a couple of places I really like but require a taxi or subway ride to Lakeview (both are on Clark St. about 1/2 to 3/4 mile south of Wrigley):
Duke of Perth (pies, fish and chips, good whiskey, and they know how to serve a proper Scottish beer..i.e., not ice cold)
Andalous (Moroccan food--absolutely delicious but the service can be poor if not rude)
Indian food on Devon is outstanding but that's a long haul from downtown. Mysore Woodlands would be my first choice if pressed.
There's probably a Chicagoan here to offer a bad word against every place I've named.
Thanks mort_fin and Cinco for the tips.
edit and Yalt!
I had a friend who made a living for 5 years or so painting watercolors of what the big dig would look like when it was done. It seems that she had a knack for making it look less ugly than it would in real life - a valuable skill.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:34 pm
JD,
It is just a synopsis of the paper but just read this:
Changes in Net Flow of Ocean Heat Correlate with Past Climate Anomalies
Thought it was interesting, I need to see the whole paper though before passing judgment. More observation without understanding what really drives the cycle at first glace though.
When I got home last night, my wife was
'ing about some climate summit where the folks were talking about putting aerosols into the atmosphere to stave off warming. Perhaps they should review the unbiased data before launching into such schemes.
Oh, I'll second mortfin's call for Topolobambo or Frontera Grill.
I wish there was a way to sell all of New England to the Chinese. The Russians sold Alaska. Why not?
“Some New Mexico auto dealers have backed out of the cash-for-clunkers program and more may do so as the federal government takes its time providing cash reimbursements. Dealers across the state are owed more than $3.6 million, according to a dealers’ group which says that so far Uncle Sam has only written three checks totaling about $14,000.” Dealers stiffed as clunkers pile up (Apologies if this was posted already, I didn't see it)
Pearls of Wisdom, from Rush: ( No not much of a fan, just nothing else worth listing to )
"The killer for me was Barney Frank saying to this woman, ‘What planet do you live on?’
Isn't it an established fact that Barney Frank himself spends most of his time living around Uranus?”
homedad43 - That's not to say these figures aren't extreme. I think Brinkmann is right - this figure will probably hit what looks to be a bottom around the end of 2010. Although I fully expect a double dip.
Does this mean that we cannot expect a housing bottom BEFORE the end of 2010?
It's all in how you define 'bottom'. Prices? Foreclosure percentages? Counts? Whatever the case, don't expect housing to come roaring back anytime soon.
A friend of mine claimed that the dealer required their signature on a waiver.
If the gov't fails to pay the Clunker rebate, the car buyer is personally liable for the clunker amount.
How's that for a stimulus?
Did the MBA factor in that by next year it will be common knowledge among the proles that the best way to increase your income is to quit paying your mortgage?
I wish there was a way to sell all of New England to the Chinese. The Russians sold Alaska. Why not?
-=---------
Why New England....Lefty coast California could sure use a little ethnicity.........oh wait?
Re: Uranus
Why does it matter where a member of PT's #2's nobility puts his dick? How is that relavent to the statement "this woman" was asking and Barnie's response?
CR,
We started at just over 5,000 feet in Cedar Grove, so it had extra Pinochet going for it...
Over 7,000 feet of climbing to get there, yikes~
"Brinkmann expects foreclosures to peak at the end of 2010" ............unless governnment types keep messing around with "Help the Homeowner" programs........then it's a wild guess.....2030, 2035?........(please don't assume my position on it.......thnx.)
It seems the mess can't clean itself up without there first being a "bottom". There is no "bottom" until the "bouncing, flopping, and jerking around" quits.
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:46 pm
Pearls of Wisdom, from Rush: ( No not much of a fan, just nothing else worth listing to )
"The killer for me was Barney Frank saying to this woman, ‘What planet do you live on?’
Isn't it an established fact that Barney Frank himself spends most of his time living around Uranus?”
I don't listen to him either, but I have to admit that he's pretty funny most of the time. My only complaint would be about his ridicule of MJ Fox's medical condition and the whole prescription drug addiction. I'm in pain everyday and rarely even take aspirin, though at my age, I should probably start.
Isn't it an established fact that Barney Frank himself spends most of his time living around Uranus?
We really need that BOHICA icon...
Re: MJ Fox's
Mean people are usually mean to everybody. When Rush and his dumbasses run out of THOSE PEOPLE to hate, you're next.
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:47 pm
I wish there was a way to sell all of New England to the Chinese. The Russians sold Alaska. Why not?
-=---------
Why New England....Lefty coast California could sure use a little ethnicity.........oh wait?
From a financial standpoint, cutting loose of CA and OR would probably make more sense in the short term-
CR - There appears to be an interesting regional variation in the foreclosure-to-delinquency ratio, with the South (excluding the non-Southern state of Florida) appearing to lag in foreclosures.
Anyone know if this based on some variation in foreclosure procedures in that region? If not, what else might explain it?
Michael Pettis has an interesting article up on the Asian Savings glut hypothesis. Which came first, American consumption or the Asian savings glut. His take in the long term ramifications of each case are quite interesting.
Mpettis.com
Dupe
"living around Uranus?"
Oh that rascal Rush, stealing insults from the second-grade playground again.
GM is pre-paying their dealers for C4C transactions. Nice of GM to reimburse their dealers tired of waiting on the government reinbursements...er...wait a minute
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:48 pm
.....There is no "bottom" until the "bouncing, flopping, and jerking around" quits.
Is this a fat chick reference?
"A friend of mine claimed that the dealer required their signature on a waiver.
If the gov't fails to pay the Clunker rebate, the car buyer is personally liable for the clunker amount.
How's that for a stimulus? "
A lot of desperate dealers esp the ones who are closing as ordered by the American Kremlin had nothing to lose. They needed to move inventory or be stuck with those pos forever.
".....cutting loose of CA and OR would probably make more sense in the short term-"
.......damn - our town would then be a "border town". Would that mean we'd have cheaper dental here? What about "bordellos" and 24-hour bars?....Oh wait.....we already have those....
I used to LOVE Rush Limbaugh - funniest thing on the radio - but then I realized that many of his listeners took him seriously. Scary.
ROFL........thnx, Cinco.......I needed that.
Tim, as per the cars.gov website, it's illegal for dealer to do that.
kensanfran (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:52 pm
"living around Uranus?"
Oh that rascal Rush, stealing insults from the second-grade playground again.
It's called recycling.
ottnott, on the conference call, Brinkmann said this was related to the process in each state. That is why I think adding the two numbers makes sense. But these are all delinquencies (30+ days), so maybe I should do a chart of seriously delinquent plus foreclosures.
best wishes
Florida's number one! We're number one!
We're Number One!
When property values go up it is just Mark to Wishing. There is no wealth involved.
Re: took him seriously
You had doubt? The PT's #1 dumbasses are obsessed with THOSE PEOPLE. It's atleast 35% of the population.
Housing depression
Do What? Take in trade-ins that might not qualify?
What are they going to do shut the dealer down?
From a financial standpoint, cutting loose of CA and OR would probably make more sense in the short term- - C
In many ways, that has already happened. It's a different culture, different people, different climate. it sure feels "foreign" to me.
CR
You used to track Bushes spending to 10 trillion. How about Obamas spending to 20 T. He might get there faster.
CR,
When you say most delinquencies will cure, do you simply mean >50%?
I think most housing experts have not updated their models to get accurate cure rates in this recession.
Several unique factors will cause recoveries and cure rates to be significantly lower than previous times of high delinquency periods.
Namely, higher LTVs, more incentives and less negative sentiment for defaulters, and higher DTI ratios.
scone Most of Oregon outside of Portland resembles the Southwest or Mid west. Not much different than the rest of the country.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:54 pm
ROFL........thnx, Cinco.......I needed that.
I'm a little disappointed; yesterday I got someone to spit coffee, or spew it through their nose or something. I'll need to work harder I guess; too bad there's no porn allowed here
Cinco, I tried responding to your email and it didn't go through.
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:58 pm
From a financial standpoint, cutting loose of CA and OR would probably make more sense in the short term- - C
In many ways, that has already happened. It's a different culture, different people, different climate. it sure feels "foreign" to me.
Still planning on heading back East?
Asswipe- the professionals seem to be “All In.”
I think that's a good observation. They're in the process of blowing another bubble, and that's why I'm optimistic in the short run, but pessimistic in the long run. Absent any fundamental reform of the system--and I haven't seen any--they'll attempt to re-inflate and, in the process of doing so, the system will probably fail.
Some time ago, I think it was Gordon Brown who said to Alan Greenspan that everyone was pretty well agreed that the only way to cure a burst bubble was to blow another one.
Without having read the Pettis piece, my theory is that the savings glut hypothesis is a smokescreen used to divert attention from the reckless credit expansion caused by regulators increasing allowable leverage limits for banks and encouraging securitization, derivatives, and off-balance sheet entities.
Re: was to blow another one
So "system will probably fail" could take decades.
mp
It won't work to blow another bubble. There has been a 50% haircut in wealth over the last 2 years worldwide. Write-downs or crippling inflation is the only answer.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:59 pm
Cinco, I tried responding to your email and it didn't go through.
Hmmm......I just got as "hoocoodanode" e-mail from "Misha" yesterday around 10:00AM. I'll try you instead-
My impression is hardly any foreclosures are curing in the traditional sense. Unless you count short
sales as curing? Losing 10s to 100s of thousands of dollars is not what I think of as curing.
"It won't work to blow another bubble."
I didn't say it would. I'm simply saying that's probably what they're thinking.
Agreed MP. Your version of short term is months or years?
I track foreclosure notices in the Jackson, MS area, specifically Hinds County, through the legal notices in the Clarion Ledger. Notices run 3 consecutive weeks and then the sale takes place. For example on Thursday August 6 there were 29 new NOD's. The following Thursday 8/13 still 29 (no apparent cures) The final Thursday publication 8/20 there were still 27 of the original 29. No way to easily track how many ultimately went to sale but probably a healthy percentage. Today there were 30 BRAND NEW first time NOD's. Over the last 4-6 weeks I have seen a substantial INCREASE in BofA/Countrywide NOD's. There must be a huge shadow inventory still out there waiting for the hammer to drop. I reside in a small town about 15 miles NW of Jackson and the real estate market is absolutely dead. I am currently a FSBO and have seen values drop drastically in the last 2-3 years. I'm pricing at next year's perceived value (lower than today's) and still virtually no action. Grim. Fortunately for us the property is F/C so it WILL get sold eventually but its painful to contemplate equity vaporizing that would have gone into the next property. I'm sure there are a million stories like this out there.
Short term is months. A year or two at most.
Kung Fu, I recommend reading his article. Well balanced and his main point is that the long term outcome both here and in Asia changes dramatically based on which actually came first.
"Mean people are usually mean to everybody. When Rush and his dumbasses run out of THOSE PEOPLE to hate, you're next. '
It's the old "waiter" test. If you want to see what someone is made of, see how he/she treats waiters, someone who is 1) perceived below him in social class and 2) pretty much at his mercy -- his tip is discretionary.
What you perceive there is the base personality. They may be nice to you -- as long as they need you.
The magical, mystical, 49% percent bounce in historic terms
http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/diff.PNG
mrconsulting, Just to be clear, I wrote "many would cure" - not "most". I doubt it is close to a 50% cure rate now - and I'm trying to find the numbers.
I think the mod programs will make the cure rate look better, but it will still probably be below 50%.
best wishes
Kung.Fu.Panda (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 1:00 pm
Without having read the Pettis piece, my theory is that the savings glut hypothesis is a smokescreen used to divert attention from the reckless credit expansion caused by regulators increasing allowable leverage limits for banks and encouraging securitization, derivatives, and off-balance sheet entities.
Correct; diss'ing the Asians for being "enablers" is a bogus argument. Of course, TPTB are more interested in getting votes than making sense, and only make sense when it seems as though that will get them more votes.
Write-downs or crippling inflation is the only answer.
Right.... that's called "blowing a bubble".
fdic easing its restrictions on PE owning banks, no final rule yet. not sure if this is good or bad.
FDIC Is Set to Loosen Rules to Buy Failed Banks - WSJ.com
@Eric
Well, they're working themselves into a corner, aren't they?
I think one should look at the stock market from late May on as another bubble, flat out.
Why else would the market and oil go up nearly in lockstep, even as demand for oil looks paucid?
The market can keep going longer than I could stay solvent fighting it, but stepping outside and doing nothing having captured 90% of the runup is good enough for now.
At this point, the chance of picking up more gain versus the chance of losing large amounts again is too great.
I agree with MP, months on the outside, a boring sideways market from here is the best outcome, which almost never happens.
MP, how good of shape were those tools you bought for 10 cents?
Someday this war's gonna end...
I agree that late 2010 will have foreclosures peaking.
Lord help us in Florida.
I do think that you might see fixed rates going higher and ARMs slowing or diminishing, because
the rates dropping because of the the indexes dropping. Of course this doesn't apply so much
for high margin loans. The typical person I closed didn't understand the idea of the margin.
I tried to explain, but I fear in vain. So low margin types didn't even appreciate what they were
getting.
Re: It won't work to blow another bubble
Depends. The stock "market" IS a bubble, and it's doing great. Just depends on how big it gets.
Still planning on heading back East? - C
Yes, Intel is flying us out and paying for a hotel, for a week, as a house hunting trip. Sadly, they don't do the whole "buy your house and move you" deal. Haven't for many years. But they will help as much as they can. Very decent, actually.
CR
How can you come up with a number close to 50% when more than half of the few successful modifications are failing?
Basel
Look what the hedge fund /PE mentality did for banks and Iceland. Just another vehicle for fraud.
@AllenM
Excellent. Not new by any means, but excellent condition overall.
.............I heard BofA is going to rewrite the Taylor-Bean customers' principal back to market prices. (No link, just bar rumor)
All, I'm making some tweaks to the system, most visibly a duplicate post guard. If you experience problems, please let me know.
Geez, my jealous bone is going. I plan on picking up a new to me table saw out of this crash- next summer looks about right.
Right now I have some lapidary stuff to liquidate next on ebay- it will be interesting to see what it brings- I have a whole $40 invested in two boxes full. I think the silver jewelry solder alone covers my nut.
Someday this war's gonna end...
@AllenM
So called "old" American iron (thirty to fifty years old) is vastly superior to the new equipment coming out China, even Japan for that matter.
It's not a matter of American "pride," it's just a fact.
Short sales. Don't forget short sales.
I got a new deal in today. 61k for a 2 bedroom condo.
another deal on the verge of closing (in the black hole of underwriting). that
one is 85k. Used to be you couldn't get a doghouse for that amount.
B of A just might do that. Remember they offered 25 cents on the dollar to one
of my clients. He didn't accept.
Oh, I agree, but some of the newer hobby stuff will have almost no hours on it.
It becomes a tradeoff between maintenance and the desire for fancy new bells and whistles. A sawstop at a bargain price would be nice;-}
Time and effort will tell. I might have to restart some of my stalled projects as soon as the weather cools a bit. I have a gas tank to pull and get purged, and then my old pickup is back in service..
Someday this war's gonna end...
I was told by a local that vacancies are rising rapidly in Battery Park City, the huge development between Ground Zero and the Hudson River, because Europeans who had been leasing/renting space were heading home in droves, being called back.
==========
yep, had friends there that moved back to europe already, very happy to go back and being closer to family. ... i wonder whether i'll have any friends staying in usa sometimes...
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 1:04 pm
"Mean people are usually mean to everybody. When Rush and his dumbasses run out of THOSE PEOPLE to hate, you're next. '
It's the old "waiter" test. If you want to see what someone is made of, see how he/she treats waiters, someone who is 1) perceived below him in social class and 2) pretty much at his mercy -- his tip is discretionary.
What makes you think that Rush Limbaugh is a bad tipper?
A google search yields:
The New York Times did an article on Rush about a year ago and reported that Rush is big tipper.
and
"MS-NBC apparently took no chances on questions from the crowd. Rather than get caught with a question that might make Republicans look good, their producer pre-screened questioners, and Chris Matthews pretended it was random.
-- Republicans were good tippers. MS-NBC stiffed the drivers.
-- Media people talked in the cars about how effective the Republican convention turned out to be, while publicly saying something else entirely."
and
34 Notoriously Bad Celebrity Tippers
1. Madonna - Doesn’t always leave a tip, when she does it’s a cheap one.
2. Kelly Presten - Notoriously bad tipper. Most of the time she doesn’t leave a tip at all.
3. Gwyneth Paltrow - Doesn’t leave a decent tip. It’s speculated she has trouble calculating the proper percentage.
4. Barbra Streisand - Doesn’t always tip. When she does it’s $10 for a bill of over $450. She’s very high maintenance and demanding and no one ever wants to wait on her.
5. Tobey Maguire - Doesn’t always leave a tip, and when he does it isn’t generous.
6. Bill Cosby - Once left a $3 tip on a $350 order. He probably thinks the waitstaff needs to stop taking from others and get a real job.
7. Ricki Lake - Once left a tip of $8.00 on a $142.44 bill. This after she let her young son run around the restaurant unattended - and he supposedly made a big mess.
8. Bobby Brown - Rude to wait staff, lets his kids run amuk and left a $10 gratuity on a $250 restaurant tab.
9. Sean Penn - He and three others had New Orleans waiters waiting on them hand and foot. The tip left on a $450 tab? Absolutely nothing. There are lots of instances of Sean Penn stiffing waitstaff. How many people do you think have spit in his food by now?
10. Kirsten Dunst - According to one server she’s whiny and smells bad. Left nothing behind after racking up a $223 bill.
11. Dan Marino - Wouldn’t talk to server directly, had to have a member of his entourage handle it. Tipped $10 on $210.
12. David Lee Roth - Is known to be demanding and send food back. Tips 10%.
13. Duane “Dog the Bounty Hunter” Chapman - He and his wife are considered to be very high maintenance. They expect the VIP treatment and only tip %5. At a TGI Fridays in Waikiki they paid $10 for a $250 tab.
14. Rupert Everett - Listed as one of the worst tippers ever.
15. David Byrne - The Talking Heads frontman is considered one of the worst tippers ever because he doesn’t leave anything, ever.
16. Molly Ringwald - Bar tab was the equivalent of twenty-five cents for each round of drinks her large entourage consumed.
17. Diddy - Left a $40 tip for his meal - a dinner for 15 people.
18. Richard Dreyfuss - Bad tipper and high maintenance “whiny” client.
19. Michael Moore - Once left less than $20 on a bill totally $452.52.
20. Jesse Jackson - Left $20 on a $228 tab.
21. John Kerry - Left $20 on a tab of over $700!
22. Britney Spears - Once tipped a valet by dropping change on the ground and telling him “there’s your tip”. Also paid a $26 tip on a $500 tab.
23. Tiger Woods - Doesn’t tip because he says he doesn’t carry cash.
24. Usher - Never tips and always tries to get someone else to pick up the bill.
25. Rachel Ray - Tipped $1 on a $10 tab. Probably didn’t want to go under her $40 a day allowance.
26. Victoria Beckham and Katie Holmes - Dined together in an upscale restaurant and didn’t leave a tip.
27. Tom Green - Once left $15 on a $175 tab.
28. Paul McCartney - Once left a restaurant too drunk to leave a tip.
29. Regis - Once left cruise staff a $60 tip for an entire week’s worth of personal service. His wife is said to be very high maintenance and the ship’s crew was happy when she left two days early.
30. Marty Stuart - Leaves 7% - his wife is very demanding.
31. Don Henley - Very demanding, keeps staff members on their toes, tips 15%.
32. D’Angelo - Once left $7.00 on a $250 tab. The tab should have been over $500, mind you, but the r&b singer and his entourage nagged until they got a discount.
33. Mariah Carey - Once had her people call ahead to a restaurant to let them know she was arriving with a very large party. The restaurant stayed open late, and Mariah and crew were very diva-ish with their demands. Despite keeping staffers jumping and a high tab, no one left a tip.
34. Marion Jones - Left $3 on a $45 tab.
Is there are conservative in the bunch?
The Labor Department reports the number of first-time jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 last week, from a revised figure of 561,000. Trend following economists expected a drop to 550,000, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending Aug. 1 were in Puerto Rico (7.3 percent), Oregon (6.2), Pennsylvania (6.1), Michigan (5.9), Nevada (5.9), Wisconsin (5.5), California (5.3), Connecticut (5.3), New Jersey (5.3), North Carolina (5.1), and South Carolina (5.1).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Aug. 8 were in Tennessee (+2,525), North Carolina (+2,469), Wisconsin (+2,078), Georgia (+1,753), and Washington (+1,697), while the largest decreases were in California (-5,635), Michigan (-1,490), Ohio (-951), Kentucky (-690), and Delaware (-226).
ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims
Report
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
wage earnings peaked on 1975, the savings rate decreased during the 80s, 90s, 2000s... this as the population was aging and having to save for retirement.
the problem is people believing they have a lifestyle to support instead of defining the lifestyle that can be supported by earnings imho. what level of consumption defines the middle-class has to go down when their discretionary income ends up being a third of what it was, that simple. maybe part of the increases of the standard of living post WWII were cause of the demographic boom there was... now we are gonna suffer the other side of hte coin... the cost of those guys aging.
Quicken Loans advertisment on refinance-
Unable to refinance?
New FHA guidelines
Less Documentation
No appraisal
Re: wonder whether i'll have any friends staying in usa sometimes
Oh, come on. Let's all sing the CR Barnie song!
August 20, 1930
Increase in credit outstanding in first half was interpreted bullishly, but has stopped since mid-June. “This may mean that stimulus to business in the form of credit expansion induced by Federal Reserve policy has reached its effective limits ...
Editorial: Labor Sec. Davis has favored higher wages for foreign workers to increase their purchasing power and prosperity. This is putting the cart before the horse. The more important way to help foreign workers is by free markets so their products can be sold here
Bulls encouraged by resistance to repeated bear efforts Saturday and Monday following explosive rise Friday; buying movement spread broadly across the market early. Major industrials strong including US Steel, GE, Westinghouse, as were major utilities and rails
Conservative observers even more cautious than usual; believe recent rally due to oversold condition, and decline will resume when short-covering ends.
Some market students encouraged by repeated support above June lows, advise buying leading stocks if they again approach these levels.
News from 1930
Destruction of global wealth tops $20trn
Destruction of global wealth tops $20trn
NOTE: This is global household wealth. Not counting write downs of debt for corporations.
"According to Morgan Stanley's estimates, the result of the current financial crisis has been a destruction of world wealth, which since mid 2007 has amounted to approximately $20trn (or down 16 per cent from its peak, which has been estimated at $125trn by the United Nations)."
The losses are closer to 30 trillion now IMO if you count further RE declines this year.
60 Trillion of the UN figure is 125 Trillion is all DEBT. The other 60 trillion was asset values RE, Stocks.
Commercial Real Estate Faces Challenges in 2010: NAR
Commercial Real Estate Faces Challenges in 2010: NAR : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
"It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem."
I think it's highly unlikely that we're going to see any regulatory reform.
scone (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 1:08 pm
Still planning on heading back East? - C
Yes, Intel is flying us out and paying for a hotel, for a week, as a house hunting trip. Sadly, they don't do the whole "buy your house and move you" deal. Haven't for many years. But they will help as much as they can. Very decent, actually.
Good luck- let me know if I can help (I'm in north central MA)
Re: Is there are conservative in the bunch?
Yeah, I was worried about that comment. Leads to the "is so" "is not" nonsence.
The PT's # 1's are primarily mean and exclusionary to outsiders (THOSE PEOPLE).
The PT's # 2's are primarily guilt-ridden and inclusionary of outsiders.
These two types aren't going to agree on anything, except (maybe) sports and the weather.
Friend of mine just had escrow fall through on selling his house. The offer was FHA and required two appraisals. The second appraisal came in $14k low, killed the funding.
He would prolly been wise to reduce the price.
How can foreclosures peak when banks don't acknowledge them? Shadow peak at the end of 2011?
Good luck- let me know if I can help (I'm in north central MA) - C
Thanks, I appreciate that!
My only 2 concerns are selling the house and moving our cat. She'll be 22 in September, and getting kind of fragile.
so what's the best way to retail hedge exposure to natgas? UNG, GAZ, etc. it can't possibly stay like this forever.
To follow up from above we have 30-40 trillion in assets and 60+Trillion in debt. Either the assets must be inflated 100% or we need some major write downs of at least another 30 Trillion dollars.
Of course we could have a mix of inflation and write downs but even a 10 trillion dollar write down could wipe 50+% from global equities.
Re: She'll be 22 in September
WOW, 22! I've got a 20 yo cat. She's doing good, except for slow kidney degradation. The Science Diet K/D has help allot.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 1:06 pm replyIgnore userfdic easing its restrictions on PE owning banks, no final rule yet. not sure if this is good or bad.
then there's this...
FDIC clawback reflects US strategy shift
By Julie MacIntosh and Joanna Chung in New York
Published: August 18 2009 22:51 | Last updated: August 18 2009 22:51
US regulators are starting to structure bank rescue deals so as to limit the potential gains of buyers, a strategy shift that could deflect political criticism of the cost of bank bail-outs.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the insurer of US bank deposits, sealed its first such “clawback” arrangement on Friday as part of its deal to sell $21.8bn of assets in Colonial, a bank seized by Alabama regulators, to BB&T.
FT.com / Companies / Banks - FDIC clawback reflects US strategy shift
Either Nat Gas is 50% undervalued or Crude is 100% overvalued or something like that . I'd go with crude being too expensive
I must go... trying to divine who Comrade Duch's defense witnesses are going to be in a few weeks...
... I have come up with a brilliant strategy for his defense - I, myself and Irene ?
how is my insipid factor coming along? getting the voice right takes works...
on a somber note the pain I saw in the courtroom today was not easy to witness....
You can sort of forgive David Byrne...he is an existentialist after all...I mean if he did leave a tip...it would take him ages to figure out how much and what the consequences of such an action might bring...and if the service of the server actually existed anyway......
Side note, as an absent minded philosopher I do not have a perfect record as a tipper, but when I do remember...I tip well.
Somebody yell blitz?
Porsche Raided on Suspicion of Market Manipulation
Porsche Raided on Suspicion of Market Manipulation (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
wage earnings peaked on 1975, the savings rate decreased during the 80s, 90s, 2000s... the problem is people believing they have a lifestyle to support instead of defining the lifestyle that can be supported by earnings imho. what level of consumption defines the middle-class has to go down when their discretionary income ends up being a third of what it was, that simple.
Another froggie morning!
I would love to know just who is buying this market.
Friend of mine just had escrow fall through on selling his house. The offer was FHA and required two appraisals. The second appraisal came in $14k low, killed the funding.
couldn't your friend lower the price by the $14k?
"Of course we could have a mix of inflation and write downs but even a 10 trillion dollar write down could wipe 50+% from global equities."
I'm seeing deflation everywhere now, so all of Ben's helicopter money hasn't been doing very well.
The banks are still sitting on trillions of dollars. They won't lend it.
As I said, they're working themselves into a corner, perhaps I should say they're "running out of policy options."
I take it the market is up based on the theory that the surprise jump in layoffs means more people day trading with their UI benefits?
probably the same peeps buying in sept 2007.
NARM,
22 or 20 is good impressive for a cat. Can I ask the breed? I've always had Maine Coons or MC mixes and they are famous for their heart problems. Like golden retreivers, who have issues with agressive cancer, they don't last very long.
mp,
Think equities or Treasuries will fall apart first?
I would love to know just who is buying this market.
If you pay taxes, you are.
couldn't your friend lower the price by the $14k?
Yes, but decided to put it back on the market.
They had 6 offers a month ago. Not sure if they can get a deal at the price they want.
Re: I would love to know just who is buying this market.
I thought we knew:
First it was the people that are getting the free money.
Then it was the very smart people that understand the "market" doesn't care what the "correct righteous and just" direction is.
Then it was the gamblers.
Then it was the pension funds.
Then the peasants.
Another froggie morning! I would love to know just who is buying this market.
US taxpayers via the Fed's liquidity programs pumping money to the FI's allowing them all the upside and very little if any downside
I think that because the middle and high end markets have much further to fall, the govt is going to try to get involved and bail out even more people. The govt has demonstrated that they are going to continue to throw money at the failed institutions to try to clean up their mess. This will continue to have negative consequences for our currency, as their main remedy for all of these problems is money printing and stimulus, which is essentially debt. And one of the only ways for most people to protect and potentially prosper from this is by investing in those assets that should rise from all the money printing, such as gold and other commodities. This is a good discussion on a mining company, Mines Management that is developing a large silver and copper mine with a huge deposit base and that trades in the lower range of silver companies per ounce of silver.
I think it's highly unlikely that we're going to see any regulatory reform.
I think it's a certainty that we'll see regulatory reform, once everyone has a chance to sit around the table and hash out a plan that won't actually change anything. A perfect example would be Captain Ned's post last night about the recent Supreme Court ruling that allows states to prosecute nationally chartered banks for violation of state consumer protection laws but doesn't allow the state regulatory bodies to be involved in the investigation. Since it's the regulatory bodies, not the state AGs, that are equipped to investigate such charges, in the real world nothing has happened at all. But it looks good and confidence is restored....
"Another froggie morning! I would love to know just who is buying this market."
Why be concerned? Personally, I don't mind a bit if they do.
Seriously, is there any way to get a profile on who's buying? I'm suspecting some sovereign wealth funds, and some 401k.
"Think equities or Treasuries will fall apart first?"
Well, the so-called bull market ended on November 22, 2007 as far as I'm concerned. We know what happened after that.
As far as the bond market is concerned, I expected it to fall apart months ago, but Ben stepped in and started buying. So, I got that one wrong.
In my view, Ben is now the little Dutch boy, and he's running out of fingers to stick into the dike.
They have no plan, and that's not good.
As I've said before, I'm optimistic in the short run, but pessimistic in the long run.
I think this is turning into one of those Decon Blues Steely Dan kind of days...
they got a name for the winners in the world
I want a a name when I lose
Re: Can I ask the breed
She's a generic SPCA tabby cat. The kinda cat you'd see in the dictionary with one of those pin-n-ink drawing. Doesn't like anybody but me, and my spouce. Can't stand the 2nd cat (who likes everybody).
I may have had an epiphany reading one of Matt Taibbi's articles yesterday. It was the one originally published in Rolling Stone in April.
He specifically highlighted Feb 18th, 2009 as the day that the Fed's QE kicked into high gear by replacing the historic Repo position with all the new alphabet soup of lending programs and guarantees. From the story...
The reason the number {of repos} has dropped to nothing is that the Fed had simply stopped using relatively transparent devices like repurchase agreements to pump its money into the hands of private companies. By early 2009, a whole series of new government operations had been invented to inject cash into the economy, most all of them completely secretive and with names you've never heard of. There is the Term Auction Facility, the Term Securities Lending Facility, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility, the Commercial Paper Funding Facility and a monster called the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (boasting the chat-room horror-show acronym ABCPMMMFLF). For good measure, there's also something called a Money Market Investor Funding Facility, plus three facilities called Maiden Lane I, II and III to aid bailout recipients like Bear Stearns and AIG.
That this began a few weeks before the market began its immaculate bull run seems more than coincidental. Or do I just need to remove
"That this began a few weeks before the market began its immaculate bull run seems more than coincidental. Or do I just need to remove Tinfoil Hat"
Well, no disrespect intended, but why can't you just let the facts speak for themselves?
Guys, we're pigged, but Peak Panic didn't end til late March. That's a hell of a lag for an emergency program.
C
"Guys, we're pigged..."
So?
mp - the optimism in the short run may actually help a lot of people. If things spike up, that gives people more opportunity to prepare for "the big one." Prescient people, anyway.
"If things spike up, that gives people more opportunity to prepare for "the big one.""
You are reading my mind. I thank God for every additional day they're buying for me--us.
And yet you're probably 99% more prepared than the rest of us.
I bought this morning pre market. Up 10% on the position so far...It's hard not to be a pig at the trough these days.
"And yet you're probably 99% more prepared than the rest of us. "
I do not enjoy that distinction.
You may not enjoy it, but you earned it, and you did your best to preach it to everyone else. You did your job.
"You may not enjoy it, but you earned it, and you did your best to preach it to everyone else. You did your job."
Well, I enjoy different points of view, you know? The older one becomes, the more difficult it is to think clearly.
So, I enjoy the so-called battle of thoughts. It challenges me. It forces me to constantly reconsider my views.
"It's hard not to be a pig at the trough these days."
I agree, but be extremely careful.
Just some friendly advice. These are treacherous times.
I have a hunch participating on this blog is more beneficial to the aging mind than doing crossword puzzles, which has traditionally been the method I've heard to keep your brain sharp.
Just like exercising can be addictive to some people, the mental exercise here seems addicting.
My wife does crossword puzzles. I hate them. They're too structured and there's no interaction with other people. I prefer to be engaged.
Anyway, good chatting with you. My lunch time is over and I have to get back to it.
Have a good day.
*
Vonbek777 - This is the best place to search for a restaurant in Chitown.
ottnott - The regional variation is due to different timelines - so some loans hang around in FC status for a longer period of time. In some states, a foreclosure takes, on average, a very long time to complete (cf. Massachusetts) - whereas, in other states, the process is relatively quick. As we say in Texas, it's "post 'em and roast 'em".
Longer than you think - and lower than many thought possible - oil is over $70/bbl, nat gas under $3/mcf - check out all things nat gas at EIA:
EIA - Natural Gas Data, Reports, Analysis, Surveys
.
but pay particular attention to the supply of storage:
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
To those wondering who is buying... I'm buying a condo in Boulder. The apartment complex I'm currently living at is raising rents 9% (not a typo), so suddenly it is cheaper to buy than to rent (even assuming -2% annual depreciation over the next 5 years!). I would rather let mortgage lenders compete for my business than just hand over the money to a slimy landlord.
imagine what it would be like without all the printing.
/snark
"To those wondering who is buying... I'm buying a condo in Boulder. The apartment complex I'm currently living at is raising rents 9% (not a typo), so suddenly it is cheaper to buy than to rent (even assuming -2% annual depreciation over the next 5 years!). I would rather let mortgage lenders compete for my business than just hand over the money to a slimy landlord. "
wouldn't you get a better deal in golden?
South Dakota appears to be missing from your chart of delinquencies by state.