i got
i dont think cr is going to worry about us being off topic hes going so fast we dont even know what topic is.
besides i figure if i fuss about those nasty little toxic swaps when i am on topic
The interesting thing I noted was the trouble they had finding a rental after forclosure because of their trashed credit scores. Anyone who says credit scores don't matter is fooling himself. Foreclosure also, at least for these 4, did not seem to be a picnic. I still say boo hiss to the mantra of mass ruthless foreclosures. Foreclosures hurt (except in investor cases, of course).
ants and grasshoppers...a little bit of the Wise Old Hen... kids and I have been watching all the old disney cartoons lately...and by old I mean the ones from the 30s
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Lets finance companies outside of the US to explore offshore oil.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:27 am
ants and grasshoppers...a little bit of the Wise Old Hen... kids and I have been watching all the old disney cartoons lately...
The grasshopper style of life is sustainable only as long as there are ants they can propagandize, command, coerce or physically force. In the new fairy tale, the grasshoppers persuade some of the ants to emulate grasshopper life in and amongst their fellow ants, and teach them that they are really not ants at all.
The democrats are doing a horrible job at explaining this health care bill. And a 1,000 page document thats confusing and has sections like the one posted in the previous thread regarding financial records and access to them by the government really turn people off this government option.
Sure some right wing people have gone crazy at town halls, but I blame a high-and-mighty, secretive democratic leadership (pelosi, reid) for the problems the health care bill is really having. There are also powerful special interests at work here.
Im open to discussion and republicans do need to have a more compromising attitude, but this whole bill process needs to be started over.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure.
Good. Just like the UE reporting once the house exhausts all the benefits of being payment free under NODs it falls off the back end into NTS and is no longer counted as being delinquent.
This will easily break at 15+% mortgages in foreclosure.
No, we are nowhere near 15% of mortgages in foreclosure, homedad43. We are at 13.2% of mortgages in foreclosure or delinquent. Most [8.86%] are only delinquent (but not in the process of foreclosure), the other 4.3% are actually in the process of foreclosure.
If we ever get to 15% in foreclosure process I will eat a .
"but I blame a high-and-mighty, secretive democratic leadership (pelosi, reid) for the problems the health care bill is really having."
If you work off the premise that there is only one party with two marketing departments and that the one party is there to serve the top 1% exclusively than everything begins to make more sense.
The truth is that niether wing of the one corporatist party (being beholden to corporate interests) wants to really reform healthcare they just want to make it look as if they do while not actually stepping on the poor health insurance companies toes.
And this is what that reality looks like being played out on the national stage. It is one big circle jerk political theatre for the masses.
And anything that does pass will mean less money in our pockets and more money to the insurance companies that I can guarentee you without even reading the bill.
The interesting thing I noted was the trouble they had finding a rental after forclosure because of their trashed credit scores.
Not to worry - all those investors buying low-end houses will be desperate for renters very soon. Apartment owners must already be hurting in LA - one of my coworkers was talking about how affordable her beach city rental is getting!
"I still say boo hiss to the mantra of mass ruthless foreclosures. "
Short term pain, long term gain. If your house is underwater for 10+ years, and you don't have the wherewithal to buy a second house and keep the first as a rental and/or have the desire to be a landlord and/or the property won't "cash flow" as a rental, you either a) walk away now, b) remain stuck for 10 years, c) default in several years and go through the same thing anyway, or d) cough up the money to pay down the mortgage when you do sell (presuming you can find the money).
What would you suggest people do?
People who are walking away from underwater mortgages are doing what the government refuses to do - acknowledge their loss and suck it up early, get the damn thing behind them.
The democrats are doing a horrible job at explaining this health care bill. And a 1,000 page document thats confusing and has sections like the one posted in the previous thread regarding financial records and access to them by the government really turn people off this government option.
Maybe this was the intent all along. Draft a health care bill which satisfies all the election promises but make it so confusing that the opposition can twist its meaning to what they want it to sound like and when it is killed, blame the opposition. I am under no illusion that this is a representative democracy anymore.
I fear for what is coming down the pike when the oppressed cannot be oppressed any more. \
"Not to worry - all those investors buying low-end houses will be desperate for renters very soon."
Exactly. Very easy to find four examples to make a point, but the reality is landlords are desperate for tenants, and will become even more desperate as more supply hits the market.
It all depends on the sequencing. If you are going to ruthlessly default - it helps to get your alternative l9ned up before you do it. I expect that unlike non-ruthless defaulters who are just overwhelmed ruthless defaulters are calculating ans so will probably take those steps.
We will exceed 20% of mortgages written 2005-2007 where the homes are foreclosed, or have short sales. That should happen by about 2012. For CA, my bet is just under 30%. NV should go 40%+.
They will not all be in the process at once. You will have to follow vintages, and not point in time foreclosure numbers.
ghostface, I wish there were statistics on just how many walkaways there are from underwater mortgages compared to folks getting thrown out on their keisters.
In my stage of life, I am around a lot of families. Families with children like stability. Moving is disruptive, and being tossed out (or trading a home for a rental) is unsettling for the kids. It's another side of the elephant, but I am open to believing the other side does exist - I just don't encounter it.
Obama really erred pushing an infrastructure and tax cut stimulus as his first (and so far only) big action. If the stimulus had been built around providing a Medicare buy-in for the uninsured it would have been just as stimulatory, much more appreciated by the recipients, and pretty much guaranteed a substantive health care reform.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:39 am
What would you suggest people do?
People who are walking away from underwater mortgages are doing what the government refuses to do - acknowledge their loss and suck it up early, get the damn thing behind them.
Don't tell me that TPTB didn't see this coming. It could have been handled much more smoothly and possibly even profitably, or failing that at least with much limited risk, loan modifications, cramdowns, principal write-downs, and taking known and limited losses. "Consumers", homedebtors, are just taking matters into their own hands now and losses will be higher, and the blowback that casts doubt on the relevance of ethics in our culture will have long-term consequences.
"If you are going to ruthlessly default - it helps to get your alternative l9ned up before you do it."
I think you'd need to balance the difficulty of obtaining a rental using trashed credit against the potential to live payment-free for 1 or more years. That is a lot of money on could save, that frankly could be used to sweeten the pot for any potential landlord. Hell, pay 6 months in advance.
"Families with children like stability. Moving is disruptive, "
So families with children shouldn't move? People with kids move all the time, for all kinds of reasons, most not related to walking away from an underwater mortgage.
Apparently the WH is surprised that progressives are making such a big deal about the Public Option. These guys must be really stupid to have been surprised. After all the sweet heart deals that they have cut with the banksters it is not surprising that progressives are making a big deal about the Public option. They want to see the health insurance companies visibly gored. They simply don't trust this administration to end up with a "reasonable compromise". I would think that there would be stronger support to see some corporate interest get whacked.
This is a very amateur question, and probably very moronic...I know nothing about real estate...but if the health of the economy gets worse...and illegal and legal aliens flee the sinking ship...how much will this add to excess surplus? It is one thing to be able to pick up cheap houses...but will there be anyone to rent to? Following the migration patterns will be fascinating to watch over the next couple of years. The reason I ask, is we know several Brits, who have called it quits, and went back home recently.
You guys really think they are throwing people out? I just imagined they stopped paying and just pretend like they didn't. That's what I would do. Too much publicity is bad for things like this with the amount of people doing it.
I have a friend who recently purchased an expensive home after renting for a couple of years.
I was talking to him about it and he said that he purposefully did not put very much down and he figures the worst case is if real estate tanks he will stop paying and live for free for a year or so until he is kicked out and in that period he can recoup his downpayment by saving his mortgage payment so either way he does not lose.
Plus he always wanted a big house and he figures he may as well live that dream while he still has a job.
Bad data again...the market ignore it and is up again....tanks to the FED Philly - FakeIndex.
Please note that the date from the real economy are bad, while the FakeIndexes that nobody can verify are always "better that expected"....
My anecdotal impression is that ruthless defaulters are still a very small percentage. Of course, I'm in California, where pretty much anybody who bought during the bubble faces crushing payments after recast/reset, if not before. There are few bubble buyers here in a good enough position to even have the option of being ruthless.
I agree with you that there many things to consider- hence my comment that those who ruthlessly default are "calculating". The point being that to cite anecdotal story about non ruthless defaulters doesn't apply to ruthless defaulters.
Stability in manufacturing and construction will not help. Instead of these two areas we should be looking at the broader service and government sectors, which so far have been relatively less impacted, but which seem to be continuing to decline.
I don't care as much about the last wave. I want to know what the next wave will be.
So prime loans in foreclosure is a new wave. Government layoffs is a new wave. The question is how big will these waves be. If big enough they will swamp and green shoots in manufacturing.
"Enlighten me, why do I continue to pay, my Mortgage, small mortgage yes, but why? "
When a corporation walks away it is a business decision, but when an individual walks away it is a moral decision. go figure.
The govt knows that if individuals act in a rational manner like businesses are, the whole banking system will go under. So it is trying to bribe people into making decisions that are not in their best interest, via lowering mortgage rates (as if the rates are the problem). When the bribes don't work, they use shame and fear tactics. Just trying to herd the sheep.
@ Fair Economist (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 7:44 am
Obama really erred pushing an infrastructure and tax cut stimulus as his first (and so far only) big action. If the stimulus had been built around providing a Medicare buy-in for the uninsured it would have been just as stimulatory, much more appreciated by the recipients, and pretty much guaranteed a substantive health care reform.
I agree
DR. HOWARD DEAN: That's all I want. If you allowed people to buy into Medicare who are below 65 years old, that's a public option, and that's what we need.
I'm very uncomfortable with his level of knowledge and experience in the business world. I think they snow and steamroll him. I saw it in the Wall St. bailout and I'm seeing it again now.
But he could certainly make the business case if he just got down to the basics. If he wanted to. If a real public option was really on the table. The business case is strong for expanding Medicare (and it saves Medicare as a whole in the long term).
I'm afraid he has mired himself in the details of all of this. When he started talking specifics about a particular drug in a town hall meeting (was it Lipitor?) I just put my head in my hands.
But more importantly than that, yes, I agree that "Medicare for all" was off the table from day one, as a public plan or as a universal single payer plan.
Matt Taibbi nailed it last night on Rachel Maddow's show. The deal was made long ago. No "Medicare for all" and no universal payer. That was the deal to get insurance companies and Big Health to come to the table and negotiate, and to agree not to declare war on Obama's health care reform.
My speculation is that these deals were facilitated by Tom Daschle, and they are now being negotiated largely by the Bipartisan Policy Center, which is Tom Daschle, Bob Dole, George Mitchell and Howard Baker. Kathleen Sebelius is on board with them and has been from the start. Anyone eligible for the HHS position had to be on board.
I'm starting to feel like a broken record on the Daschle thing but it's so clear that this has been in the works for over a year now. Look for Daschle if you want to understand what's going on. He's been there working with Obama for years now, and he wasn't campaigning. He was dealing with the Big Health companies. Also look up info. on Daschle's wife
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:49 am
The govt knows that if individuals act in a rational manner like businesses are, the whole banking system will go under. So it is trying to bribe people into making decisions that are not in their best interest, via lowering mortgage rates (as if the rates are the problem). When the bribes don't work, they use shame and fear tactics. Just trying to herd the sheep.
Economic rationality is a convenient way to ignore the law of unintended consequences
"My anecdotal impression is that ruthless defaulters are still a very small percentage."
How do you define one from the other? Many people could make a higher interest payment, if they sacrificed their lifestyle, but choose not to. The only real people with no choice are those with no income and no savings. the rest are making an economic decision.
They want to see the health insurance companies visibly gored. They simply don't trust this administration to end up with a "reasonable compromise"
I want to see real financial incentives for the insurance companies to be more efficient. Regulatory capture is too pervasive. The banksters control such financial regulation as we have; the insurance companies will control such regulation as we get. The public option is the only thing on the table which will really improve efficiencies and cut costs.
I think the "broken windows" theory applies to ruthless defaults as well. The trend builds slowly- at first its only a few . Continued economic pressure and observing the first lot get away with it causes more to do it, finally you get a wave. By the time you realize that you are in wave its too late.
Buy waiving taxes due on forgiven loans this administration has removed a strong disincentive to ruthless default. Its one thing to ruthlessly default on a loan to a lender another thing all together to do it to the IRS..
We will exceed 20% of mortgages written 2005-2007 where the homes are foreclosed, or have short sales.
Maybe so, but that isn't what this figure represents. This has nothing to do with vintages. This is just a % of outstanding loans. Don't forget, new loans are added every day. For this reason alone, I don't think I'll be dining on anytime soon. Hey, yo, Jay, keep the squirrels at bay!
ghostface - I'm short on time, but I would venture to guess, and believe that I am not incorrect, that the far majority of foreclosures that involve families do not involve rational decisions based on economic realities, but instead involve a lot of pain and trauma.
And the premise that just because you're underwater means you should leave your home I do not buy either. I don't care how underwater my home gets, I love it and I'm staying as long as I can afford the (fixed rate) payments. I could care less what someone else values it at.
How do you define one from the other? Many people could make a higher interest payment, if they sacrificed their lifestyle, but choose not to. The only real people with no choice are those with no income and no savings. the rest are making an economic decision.
Everybody I know who is facing foreclosure is doing everything they can to avoid it - selling furniture, cutting out healthcare, whatever. You forget how expensive it is to live in modern American suburbia - you have to pay for cars, education, and healthcare, all at staggering prices. Most people haven't got much disposable income to cut.
Your question from a couple of threads back: Can you explain again what you are saying about exhaustion rate ? Comment by Yal from thread 'Weekly Unemployment Claims Increase, Workers Exhausting Extended Benefits'
.
What I am saying about exhaustion rate is laid out here: energyecon: UI Exhaustion Rate - Declines As Monthly Total Climbs
.
In short, we see an ever larger incremental number of people exhausting their UI benefits each month (the red line on the first plot from the link), yet the exhaustion rate has gone down on a monthly basis (the second plot) due to the enormous increase in first time UI claimants six months earlier (the blue line on the first plot from the link) .
Obama really erred pushing an infrastructure and tax cut stimulus as his first (and so far only) big action. If the stimulus had been built around providing a Medicare buy-in for the uninsured it would have been just as stimulatory, much more appreciated by the recipients, and pretty much guaranteed a substantive health care reform.
Yes, well, that last part is the problem with your suggestion.
These are not errors by the administration; they're looking out for a primary constituency.
The reason the Public option is being opposed has nothing to do with the merits of its the idea. This is simply an ideological battle. If the Public option succeeds (as it is sure to given the performance of private insurance companies it is hard to do worse) it destroys the whole "government bad - private sector good" meme that is the rallying cry on the right. The last thing the right wing needs is for the public to be satisfied with a government program.
Our government hasn't shred their credibility based on the way these town halls have been conducted? We have too much patience. It's been something like: a) I'm going to listen to you and then vote the other way as I don't care; b) I'm going to invite you to my town hall and then berate you and score political/soundbyte points by talking about how you are stupid, and off your rocker; c) I'm not even going to bother with a town hall because I'm a chickenshit coward, and I really am not doing anything when in Washington except following the party line and repeating the party talking points.
If there was critical thinking going on with the health care bills, someone would've realized the direction the Dems were going would end up here. Same thing with the TARP. Same thing with the Iraq War. Oh, hey you know, we can't pull-out now since bombs keep going off... aren't they setting off bombs to ensure we stay...?
"i guess the stock market in Oct 2007 was leading... "
That is what cracks me up about the technical analysts crowing about how the econ graphs are starting to level off and "stabilize". While this might be true (courtesy of trillions of dollars worth of gov't crack) they are in no way an indication of where things are going, especially considering that the gov't crack is not unlimited and must be pulled at some point.
The graphs MAY indicate that we are stabilizing or they may be levelling off before another plunge down.....but according to the chartists we are out of the woods on this recession and they are now busily debating what the "recovery" will look like.
The reason I ask, is we know several Brits, who have called it quits, and went back home recently.
I was told by a local that vacancies are rising rapidly in Battery Park City, the huge development between Ground Zero and the Hudson River, because Europeans who had been leasing/renting space were heading home in droves, being called back.
They liked living close to Wall Street.
Battery Park City was the center piece of a big push to make Lower Manhattan more residential (among non-Chinese and non-hippies). But that tide has washed out.
Medicare is simply a middle man facilitating the rules and payment between private health care providers and private citizens.
Weiner made the case that when the insurance company is the middle man, they take a much bigger cut than the govt. run Medicare does. And he made it clear that insurance companies do the same thing. They take a cut of every transaction -- a bigger cut than Medicare does.
But then, he really hit the important point: He asked what value the insurance company adds. This is talk that corporate America and business-minded folks can understand. "Value added" is a very familiar term to them. Weiner pointed out that insurance companies take a cut of every transaction without adding enough value to justify it.
Yalt, I agree there are a lot of people in power whose main goal is making insurance companies rich. I think Obama isn't in that group, although, clearly many of his advisers are.
If you think that you are at the center of the universe than you think your problems drive everything. I think we are still stuck in the thought process that holds the problems on wall street responsible for the economic melt down. Fix that problem and everything is alright.
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
Rocky - that AIG non-article looks like taking the prize for the most blatant collusive puff piece of the day. Let's hope. There's no commitment, planning, volume, timeline or anything; that GS has put them on "conviction" buy is hardly an independent assessment of value and direction, and heading into op-ex it's precisely the kind of crass pumpery that we should expect, and all too often see.
"Conviction" is the right word for these people, just not in the way they meant it. !!
If you believe the public option will be able to be cut costs; what the hell are insurance companies doing when they can already "improve efficiencies and cut costs". I guess they decided that they are profitable enough and are leaving money on the table? Really? I'm going to believe that just because someone with a govt hat says they can "improve efficiencies" they will be able to; and I believe the insurance companies don't want to improve efficiencies?
Maybe if the bill's were so poorly worded and were simple the other side of the debate wouldn't have ammunition, ie. whatever that electronic funds section was someone posted about; and the one about people not being able to change insurance companies under this bill.
Isn't the underlying problem Medicare insolvency; and the public option is really a ponzi scheme that will extend that insolvency out a few years?
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:49 am
This is a very amateur question, and probably very moronic...I know nothing about real estate...but if the health of the economy gets worse...and illegal and legal aliens flee the sinking ship...how much will this add to excess surplus?
Depends on the amount of "hot bunking" that's been going on-
what little value they add- underwriting is being taken out of the equation. I am surprised that people don't understand a simple truth. The valued added that insurance company brings to the table is underwriting - a polite term for exclusion. An insurance company that is required to take every risk ( no medical history or pre -existing condition) is simply not an insurance company. It is just a marketing organization acting as a conduit between the provider and consumer.
Add insult to injury force everybody to purchase a product from a private company. Don't people realize that this is crony capitalism at its worst!. The public option at least gets around that basic problem. A government mandate doesn't enrich private players.
I think you're a bit confused here. One man's "cost" is another man's "revenue"...why would the insurance companies and various middlemen want to reduce revenue?
Here's a question: when you a write a check for your insurance premium, what fraction of it do you think actually reaches the underwriters on the risk? Put, another way, what loss ratio does the insurance company need to maintain in order to turn a profit? I'm sure the answer varies greatly depending on the particular type of insurance--let's use corporate D&O insurance because that's the line I know best.
[Edit: by "loss ratio" I mean losses divided by gross premiums. The loss ratio companies disclose are based on net premiums--they let you see the internal inefficiency at the insurer itself but not the skimming done by various brokers in the transaction.]
regarding PBR and Soros.....he lost his ass on oil last year so they are just making it back for him so he stays quiet. His recent book has NO mention of oil at all. What does that tell you?
re: km4
From the link; I really don't want to get into the debate.
One point I wish Weiner had emphasized to Joe is that new subscribers will be paying premiums to Medicare and because they will be younger than the current Medicare recipients they will both increase the risk pool and add younger members, which should bring down the cost for everyone.
This makes my point that is all about extending the medicare ponzi scheme. Currently you'll be forced to carry some insurance; no doubt the public option would look good... so the young will be joining the Medicare ponzi.
And if you don't join the ponzi scheme you'll be fined for being uninsured. The way the bill is written appears nasty.
But look, I think I've people I trust say the only way to really change/reform health care is to go for single payer. Since that was taken off the table when Obama played nice with the insurance companies, what's the point in subsidizing people into the insurance companies? If we don't get single payer, we're not getting health care reform. And a majority of Americans have been convinced that single payer is bad. Hence, most Americans have been convinced that health care reform itself is bad. This was my conclusion awhile ago.
In the TV medical dramas, the patient lies in bed in distress, with the heartrate monitor shown over his shoulder with its squiggley line. Then it flatlines.
New comment for the nurse/MD to make to the patient's family: "This is a sign of stabilizing". Sounds much better than 'they are dead'.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:05 am
Isn't the underlying problem Medicare insolvency; and the public option is really a ponzi scheme that will extend that insolvency out a few years?
That, and unintended consequences. These DailyKOS types keep talking about Medicare efficiency, but they fail to recognize that the "cost saving" achieved by Medicare were actually referenced to cost increases paid by everyone else. That's why the very highest prices paid for medical services are paid by the uninsured; it's so that it will appear as though the large pools are paying less. Remember," there's a fine line between clever and stupid".
.....on an earlier thread I was "corrected" by a few re: Canadians using US healthcare facilities because of long waits for surgeries locally..........interesting article of just that:
"Canadians visit U.S. to get care"
"The agreements show how a country with a national care system -- a proposal not part of the health care changes under discussion in Congress -- copes with demand for care with U.S. partnerships, rather than building new facilities."
"Same thing with the Iraq War. Oh, hey you know, we can't pull-out now since bombs keep going off... aren't they setting off bombs to ensure we stay...? "
They're setting off bombs because sunni's and shia's have been killing each other for over 1400 years. Their strong arm dictactor has been replaced by an ineffectual leader put into place by an invading, occupying army. As the occupiers withdrawl, now or 20 yrs. from now, centuries old hatreds will be stoked as a tool to grab power and access to the trillions of dollars that flow beneath the sands of Iraq. The Iraq civil war wasn't ended by the occupying army, only delayed.The Iraq war hasn't even begun.
China National Petroleum and Cnooc recently offered $17 billion for Repsol’s 84% stake in the Argentine oil company, which which could be the biggest overseas investment by China
We hung out with a friend who's a backcountry ranger on the John Muir Trail (near Bench Lake trail) and the day before we got there, a gentleman with a couple of dogs had been reported on the JMT trail (fido is strictly forbidden in the backcountry of our National Parks) that had eluded 2 other backcountry rangers, but the end of the line came for him, when our buddy the long arm of the law spotted the canines with master in tow, and that was all she wrote.
It's like a $200 fine and a mandatory court appearance for the dog handler, and he had to vamoose off the JMT after having walked around 100 miles of it.
The United States has, over the past two decades, started to take on characteristics more traditionally associated with Latin America: extreme income inequality, rising poverty levels, and worsening health conditions for many. The elite live well and seem not to mind repeated cycles of economic-financial crisis. In fact, if you want to be cynical, you might start to think that the most powerful of the well-to-do actually don’t lose much from a banking sector run amok – providing the government can afford to provide repeated bailouts (paid for presumably through various impositions on people outside the uppermost elite strata).
Ultimately, of course, you get lower growth. But by the time that is clear in the numbers, it may be too late to do much about it.
Sure, let's let the .gov run health care.......Dopes/
For all those who say this, I wish the government would get rid of Medicare and lets see how well this goes down with the public. The government already runs health care for the people who are most likely to use it. The private sector then gets to cherry pick the best out of the rest while denying coverage to the infirm.
Yeah, I wish the government took its hands off my Medicare.
this should allow us to reverse engineer the exact amount of taxpayer dollars necessary to create or save a single job...and soon as that number is published I will seal the underground biosphere in my backyard.
Isn't it odd that our government which could come up with $787 Billion in a heartbeat for clunkers then, seems stretched to come up with a couple billion for clunkers now?
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:32 am
cinco-x,
nice link.
this should allow us to reverse engineer the exact amount of taxpayer dollars necessary to create or save a single job...and soon as that number is published I will seal the underground biosphere in my backyard.
Isn't that always the plan? The profitable pieces of a particular industry are run by private firms; a public entity then operates what's left, be it fundamental scientific research or healthcare for the elderly and the destitute or education for special-needs kids or (in the old days) post offices in East BF, Montana, and then the fact that the public entities aren't profitable is supposed to be proof that privately run business is more efficient.
No dogs allowed on back country trails seems like a crime to me. As long as your critters are under control and don't hurt anyone, dogs were made for backcountry.
Back on topic, hoops said he saw encampments on his endeavor. Anything like that reported to you by your ranger friends?
So that's less than a dollar per person in 50 states, or up to $200 per person for the right kind of appliance until the money runs out.
I still vote for a stimulus octagon where contenstants, I mean citizens, can fight to the death over a pile of money, say, $300 in single denominations...with 3 % of the broadcasts rights going back to the Treasury to pay for the program which will be run by a consortium of consulting firms.
--bh
Now I'm glad I never got around to throwing away some of my old, defunct microwave ovens. Think there's any chance there'll be rebates for old computers, stereos, nightstand cowboy 's, etc.?
The article goes on to state that the company doesn't believe it can pay back the government through earnings alone (shocking i know), so it must rely on asset sales.
Here's where I get confused. If we (the people of the US) own 80% of AIG and the company sells a portion of itself to raise say $10B which is used to repay the loan, does the balance of the loan drop by $10B or a mere $2B?
Simply put, how can party A pay back a loan to party B by selling an item that party B already owns 80% of? Now granted, this is the US government, so I'm sure they have figured out how to make this type of accounting work given their years of experience managing the social security trust fund.
Anyone care to enlighten me on how the accounting works?
The problem with dogs in the backcountry is what happens when they encounter bears. That's ok I suppose if you're in the middle of nowhere, but frequent dog-bear encounters in a heavily-trafficked national park is asking for trouble.
"hoops said he saw encampments on his endeavor. Anything like that reported to you by your ranger friends?"
Yes,
Vast amounts of homeless people were spotted-the encampments seldom lasting more than one night, many with just scant amounts of food and the barest of necessities.
That article is based on a completely content-free statement of the new CEO?!
AIG jumped 31 percent to $34.93 after Benmosche said in an interview in Croatia that “at the end of the day, we believe we will be able to pay back the government and we hope we will be able to do something for our shareholders as well.”
When did leadership turn into making wishful statements? That works only for as long as your sheep have wool in their eyes.
huh, that's what this plot of real incomes shows - the mean of each quintile plus the mean of the top 5% - since 1980: energyecon: Distribution of Real Income Growth since 1980
.
um, have the real costs for anything gone up faster than the rate of inflation (increased in real terms)? Let's make a list!
Shill, so we started the cash for clunkers program with the financial bailout, extended it to cars, and now appliances. Looks like it will ultimately infiltrate the hospitals who really need a cash infusion or is it a cash transfusion?
For years US and European economists were critical of Japan for its failure to take aggressive measures to end its lost decade. Japan needed concerted fiscal stimulus. It needed to properly recapitalize its zombie banks. If obtuse Japanese policy makers only understood these points, the Lost Decade could have been averted. Now we Westerners understand that it was not economic obtuseness but political constraints that prevented more effective action. Too bad that there was not a better way of learning sympathy for Japan than by emulating its example.
/When did leadership turn into making wishful statements? /
Clearly you have not worked in corporate america for the last 20 years where, and i must emphasize this, you must have a Vision Statement.
A Vision Statement is an otherwise incomprehensible series of circular run-on sentences that defines your purpose, goals, and, dare I say it, Vision. Without a Vision statement you are just a meek and pathetic carbon-based lifeform holding onto to a piece of driftwood in the middle of storm whereas possessing a Vision Statement is the acumen of accumulated civilized knowledge, condensced, clarified, and pure.
But seriously, have you ever asked for a business loan? because you typically don't get one without a portfolio and business plan, and you'd better have that refined cudgel of a Vision Statement in there somewhere.
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:51 am
A Vision Statement is an otherwise incomprehensible series of circular run-on sentences that defines your purpose, goals, and, dare I say it, Vision. Without a Vision statement you are just a meek and pathetic carbon-based lifeform holding onto to a piece of driftwood in the middle of storm whereas possessing a Vision Statement is the acumen of accumulated civilized knowledge, condensced, clarified, and pure.
Almost all the precepts of a 'vision statement' are violated in a sacrifice to the corporation. Do they originate from the ground-level by the workers themselves? No. Are they clear and easy to understand? No. Do they help to unify or clarify the position of the workers to help give a unified sense of purpose? No, quite the opposite. In fact they are a travesty of command-and-control mentality.
Goldman and Bank of Amerika run the markets along with Geithner, and beagle boy Ben. There is no free markets, only welfare capitalism and socialism for capitalism.
Oooh, I'm gonna make some popcorn . Actually that's my suggestion for how California should choose which 40,000 of its prisoners gets released to satisfy the court order.
while you guys/gals were doing Bretton Woods II I spent the day in genocide court... beats traffic court.
me, and the French press... Anglo-Saxons were under represented. court ended in a most unusual way
without an adjournment. I knew this was a good reason why we didn't join the ICC.
....
finally, got my blog up today at American Cong ... it's been sitting there for 15 months
looking for an idea... I think I've got the right mix of insipidness.
....
between fashion and genocide the trick will be to work in some of the stuff I've learned here...
duke
There is little point in sending facts to people in opposite PT's. They won't be comprehended. It's best to send all facts about climate change, regulations, weapon of mass delusion, abortion, fornicating-harlots, and other topics - best described as bullshit-machine based - to dumbasses IN the same PT's.
(OH, and all my "ism" is better than YOUR "ism" facts too.)
JD, unemplyment, consumer confidence, the deficit, and home foreclosures have all gotten "unexpectedly" worse.
Stocks, commodities, oil, and the dollar are all up, much as expected.
England joins Germany, France, Japan, and Korea in announcing that the recession is over. They are just checking to see that the recovery "has legs."
And Cash for Clunkers will apparently be extended to household appliances.
In short, things are unexpectedly steadily getting worserer, just like all year so far, but its nevertheless all good on a go-forward basis.
(I threw a little "vision-statement" speak in there at the end!)
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:03 am
Re: Competencying"
ABSOLUTELY, in fact, I think I'll use it in a meeting today. I don't think I ever heard it used. I might get a promption out of this.
Thanks ahead of time!
I do what I can. Good luck on the promption. Neologism is sort of like creativity, in much the same way that shuffling paper is sort of like creating value.
The problems are real…at the heart of the real economy. They are not problems that can be solved by monkeying with the money supply, interest rates, or even fiscal policy. They are problems that need to be solved by the real economy…in the real economy…by consumers, who need to pay off their debts, and by businessmen, who need to adjust to the realities of the real world – adapting their capacity so as to produce things for people who can actually afford to buy them. It’s a long process…with many bankruptcies and disappointments along the way…
That process has only just begun. It will deepen and get worse, as both consumers and businessmen realize that there will be no quick recovery…and no return to the old model – ever. Look for more layoffs…more foreclosures…more cutbacks and workouts…
AIG, up $7 today and prepared to pay back their loan? Where's the money coming from? The printing presses of the US and China must be running full throttle. When is our government going to open up the books of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve like Ron Paul requested? Traitors or New World Order ? Here's a repeat of an article I posted yesterday.
February 22, 2009
Hillary thanks China for stealing American jobs, asks them to please keep doing it
by Howard Richman
During a diplomatic trip to China, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton just thanked China for stealing American jobs and asked them to please keep doing it. Here is what she said:
In Beijing, she called on authorities in Beijing to continue buying US Treasuries, saying it would help jumpstart the flagging US economy and stimulate imports of Chinese goods.
"By continuing to support American Treasury instruments the Chinese are recognising our interconnection. We are truly going to rise or fall together," Clinton said at the US embassy here.
Clinton had sought to focus on economic and environmental issues in Beijing, saying Washington's concerns about the human rights situation in China should not be a distraction from those vital matters.
In order to understand just how deluded this statement is, you just need to know:
Hillary was endorsing Chinese currency manipulations. The Chinese government buys US Treasury bonds so that they can keep their currency low and our currency high. Such purchases are an important component of China's mercantilist strategy of maximizing exports and minimizing imports. They buy US assets instead of US products. Hillary's praise of Chinese US Treasury bond purchases was a clear signal that the Obama administration is in favor of China's continuing currency manipulations.
Hillary was selling out US producers. Detroit is in trouble partly because China maintains 25% tariffs on US auto parts, tariffs that were found to be illegal by the WTO. Similarly, China agreed to give up their export subsidies when they joined the WTO, but increased them as part of their stimulus package to fight this recession, leading to a new US complaint with the WTO. Hillary's public silence on these issues was a tacit endorsement of China's illegal trade practices.
We don't need China's bond purchases. If China stopped buying US Treasury bonds right now, there would be very little effect upon the United States. American interest rates would go up enough to invite the glut of worldwide savings into the United States in order to earn the higher interest rate. There would be plenty of foreign savings available to make up for any slowing in Chinese government purchases of US Treasuries.
A few weeks ago, I wrote a satire about Secretary Geithner's future constructive dialogue with Chinese leaders. Turns out that Secretary Clinton's real dialogue with the Chinese leaders was even more ridiculous. In that imagined dialogue I had Geithner asking the Chinese leaders to buy more American products so that we could buy more Chinese imports. I had the Chinese leaders reassuring him that they would lend us more money so that we could buy their products. Hillary skipped the imagined Geithner request and jumped right over to the Chinese position.
Ironically, both President Obama and Secretary Clinton campaigned against Chinese currency manipulations when they were running for president. That was when they were seeking the support of the industrial unions. Now they are willing to give away American manufacturing just so that they can get more cheap Chinese loans to finance their massive give-aways.
Posted by Howard Richman at 3:44 PM
e US and China? To repeat an article I posted yesterday:
I was wondering why there was so little Calpers snark today. I see I was just a bit early. Actually, in their defense, walking away from that building in Portland seems like the best option, of investing in it in the first place may not have been.
"Anything from freep.com is right wing propaganda and is pure BS."
......I'll step out on a limb here and suggest anyone who would refuse ANY message from any carrier during an "unfinished experiment", in fact might be a bigger fool than the messenger.
Refusing the message ISN'T the problem. Each PT's brain's bullshit machine is purposely designed to filler (reject or distort) the bullshit coming FROM another PT's. This is how humans maintain their sanity. So, there's no point is talking about "messages". Nobody can hear anything other their own PT's bullshit.
"I want to see real financial incentives for the insurance companies to be more efficient."
Stop, you're scaring me.
There never was going to be any health care reform. It is just an insurance company bailout. If the government takes all the health risks out of the insurance pool it makes health insurers more profitable.
Get finance out of public health if you want reform.
Some dumbasses believe in "small donations" others in Weapons of Mass Delusion. As somebody famous once said: The dumbasses are always with us (or something like that).
.......PT? "political type"? Is that kind of like "he can hit a high-inside curveball?"....give me a break. Some variables always exist and "minor agreements" have even won wars - but only if they're read, digested, and understood and agreed upon.
Re: but only if they're read, digested, and understood and agreed upon
Nope, these aren't "minor agreement" issue. They are fundamental to the way the brain works - meaning; what story each of our bullshit machines is creating to reconcile the individuals fixed underlying personality attributes (see below) versus reality.
The type 1's are primarily mean and exclusionary of outsiders.
The type 2's are primarily guilty and inclusionary of outsiders.
These two types aren't going to agree on anything, except (maybe) sports and the weather.
The reason I ask, is we know several Brits, who have called it quits, and went back home recently.
I was told by a local that vacancies are rising rapidly in Battery Park City, the huge development between Ground Zero and the Hudson River, because Europeans who had been leasing/renting space were heading home in droves, being called back.
==========
yep, had friends there that moved back to europe already, very happy to go back and being closer to family. ... i wonder whether i'll have any friends staying in usa sometimes...
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
wage earnings peaked on 1975, the savings rate decreased during the 80s, 90s, 2000s... the problem is people believing they have a lifestyle to support instead of defining the lifestyle that can be supported by earnings imho. what level of consumption defines the middle-class has to go down when their discretionary income ends up being a third of what it was, that simple.
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. economic recovery is still in its early stages, propelled by an improving job market and a housing industry that’s beginning to stabilize.
“We have a long way to go, but we are starting to see signs of stability, and these signs mark the first steps to recovery,” Geithner said in prepared remarks in Ohio. Afterwards the crowd of Obama supporters cheered as Geithner just waved at the crowd and swung his 20 foot nose side to side proudly like Pinocchio.
Am I just flippin dumb or just missing something? Every idicator I've seen points down however everytime someone in Washington lips move there is a parade with confetti. What will they do when every American loses trust in them for the lies?
I don't think very many people have a handle on just how bad things really are with housing. My own research of local markets repeatedly show that despite (a) bank efforts to contain inventory, (b) massive Fed support of mortgage markets, and (c) clearly speculative buying behaviour (i.e., multiple offers, bid-ups, etc.); house prices, at best, are only leveling off. This means that all the inventory easing that is shaving supply off core markets to 1- to 2-months -- comparable to 2003-05 levels which saw prices soar -- is merely seeing price "level off". Can you imagine what another 18-24 months of prime foreclosures and delinquencies will do to counter all that support?
Good thing the recession is over.
I was wondering why the markets are up today.
Markets are up because jobs are down and people are losing their homes.
Great news.
i got
i dont think cr is going to worry about us being off topic hes going so fast we dont even know what topic is.
besides i figure if i fuss about those nasty little toxic swaps when i am on topic
It is easy to see why PCE has held up as well as it has - a growing number of people are not paying taxes, credit cards and of course, mortgages.
Unfortunately, I'm too stoopid (responsible) to play this game.
This will easily break at 15+% mortgages in foreclosure. That's 1 in 6 mortgages and a colossal misallocation of resources.
Okay, time for a
as I ponder this.
But we're all stabilizing now.
Horizontally speaking.
Black Dog:
Yeah, you read my mind. Sucks being responsible.
Make that a
.
homedad43, a little early in the morning for a beer. But I think being responsible has it's rewards (over time).
best to all
black dog, homedad43: Just another sucker here. It would take a lot of people making economically irrational decisions to have an impact, though...
Speaking of foreclosures, article on cnnmoney.com Life after foreclosure - Stephanie Thomson (1) - CNNMoney.com
featuring 4 families post-foreclosure.
The interesting thing I noted was the trouble they had finding a rental after forclosure because of their trashed credit scores. Anyone who says credit scores don't matter is fooling himself. Foreclosure also, at least for these 4, did not seem to be a picnic. I still say boo hiss to the mantra of mass ruthless foreclosures. Foreclosures hurt (except in investor cases, of course).
ants and grasshoppers...a little bit of the Wise Old Hen... kids and I have been watching all the old disney cartoons lately...and by old I mean the ones from the 30s
Jack Butler: You wanna beer?
Ron Richardson: It's 7 o'clock in the morning.
Jack Butler: Scotch?
I'm sure soon Obama will come out with something about pardoning credit scores soon.
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RV's Now is the time to buy RV stocks!
Tiffany - A screaming buy at this level!
GM - They are going places people!
Blogger: Page not found
Quote:
The U.S. is going to lend billions of dollars to Brazil's state-owned oil company, Petrobras, to finance exploration of the huge offshore discovery in Brazil's Tupi oil field.
Lets finance companies outside of the US to explore offshore oil.
But wait, it gets better:
George Soros Buys Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.Petrobras, AutoZone Inc., InterOil Corp., Sells Arch Coal Inc., Public Service Enterprise Group, PPL Corp. -- GuruFocus.com
Quote:
George Soros must be very bullish on stocks, he bought a lot, especially oil.... Petroleo Brasileiro alone is accounted for more than 22% of his fund.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/9162...ght-like-soros
This link says he purchased 811 million in Petroleo stock in Q2 of this year. Do you think he knew what was coming or had any influence?
Yup, the administration is "loaning" 2 billion to a Brazilian company, Petroleo , that Soros owns millions of dollars worth of stock.
•Philadelphia-Area Manufacturing Unexpectedly Expands First Time in a Year
•U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Unexpectedly Rise as Companies Seek Cost Cuts
•Stocks in U.S. Advance After AIG Says It Will Pay Back U.S. Bailout Funds
•Sears Falls After Posting Unexpected Loss as Demand for Appliances Drops
That's 3 "unexpecteds" in 4 headlines.
Can someone please throttle the imbeciles who are supposed to be anticipating this sort of sh*t?
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:27 am
ants and grasshoppers...a little bit of the Wise Old Hen... kids and I have been watching all the old disney cartoons lately...
The grasshopper style of life is sustainable only as long as there are ants they can propagandize, command, coerce or physically force. In the new fairy tale, the grasshoppers persuade some of the ants to emulate grasshopper life in and amongst their fellow ants, and teach them that they are really not ants at all.
nova - tents, camping equipment and cookers, trailers, water purifiers... all a screaming buy, once the house goes. LL Bean?
C
Pigged Again@@
The democrats are doing a horrible job at explaining this health care bill. And a 1,000 page document thats confusing and has sections like the one posted in the previous thread regarding financial records and access to them by the government really turn people off this government option.
Sure some right wing people have gone crazy at town halls, but I blame a high-and-mighty, secretive democratic leadership (pelosi, reid) for the problems the health care bill is really having. There are also powerful special interests at work here.
Im open to discussion and republicans do need to have a more compromising attitude, but this whole bill process needs to be started over.
LL Bean, Richie Rich?
Try Campmor
... then again, I'll try to stay on topic today.
The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans somewhere in the process of foreclosure.
Good. Just like the UE reporting once the house exhausts all the benefits of being payment free under NODs it falls off the back end into NTS and is no longer counted as being delinquent.
C,
Military surplus.
This will easily break at 15+% mortgages in foreclosure.
No, we are nowhere near 15% of mortgages in foreclosure, homedad43. We are at 13.2% of mortgages in foreclosure or delinquent. Most [8.86%] are only delinquent (but not in the process of foreclosure), the other 4.3% are actually in the process of foreclosure.
If we ever get to 15% in foreclosure process I will eat a
.
We camp allot for a week at a time. Big tent, all the cooking stuff, I am set.
"but I blame a high-and-mighty, secretive democratic leadership (pelosi, reid) for the problems the health care bill is really having."
If you work off the premise that there is only one party with two marketing departments and that the one party is there to serve the top 1% exclusively than everything begins to make more sense.
The truth is that niether wing of the one corporatist party (being beholden to corporate interests) wants to really reform healthcare they just want to make it look as if they do while not actually stepping on the poor health insurance companies toes.
And this is what that reality looks like being played out on the national stage. It is one big circle jerk political theatre for the masses.
And anything that does pass will mean less money in our pockets and more money to the insurance companies that I can guarentee you without even reading the bill.
Of course! If people aren't paying their mortages, and savings are rising, the money must be going somewhere, like the stock market.
I would like to hear more about Hoops' encounter with encampments in the nat'l forest he saw recently. Hope he shows up today.
The interesting thing I noted was the trouble they had finding a rental after forclosure because of their trashed credit scores.
Not to worry - all those investors buying low-end houses will be desperate for renters very soon. Apartment owners must already be hurting in LA - one of my coworkers was talking about how affordable her beach city rental is getting!
"I still say boo hiss to the mantra of mass ruthless foreclosures. "
Short term pain, long term gain. If your house is underwater for 10+ years, and you don't have the wherewithal to buy a second house and keep the first as a rental and/or have the desire to be a landlord and/or the property won't "cash flow" as a rental, you either a) walk away now, b) remain stuck for 10 years, c) default in several years and go through the same thing anyway, or d) cough up the money to pay down the mortgage when you do sell (presuming you can find the money).
What would you suggest people do?
People who are walking away from underwater mortgages are doing what the government refuses to do - acknowledge their loss and suck it up early, get the damn thing behind them.
Where's our PBGC update ? We need another Obama (PROC) Bailout, for the peeps!
The democrats are doing a horrible job at explaining this health care bill. And a 1,000 page document thats confusing and has sections like the one posted in the previous thread regarding financial records and access to them by the government really turn people off this government option.
Maybe this was the intent all along. Draft a health care bill which satisfies all the election promises but make it so confusing that the opposition can twist its meaning to what they want it to sound like and when it is killed, blame the opposition. I am under no illusion that this is a representative democracy anymore.
I fear for what is coming down the pike when the oppressed cannot be oppressed any more. \
Edit: Looks like "Hell to Pay" beat me to it.
"Not to worry - all those investors buying low-end houses will be desperate for renters very soon."
Exactly. Very easy to find four examples to make a point, but the reality is landlords are desperate for tenants, and will become even more desperate as more supply hits the market.
It all depends on the sequencing. If you are going to ruthlessly default - it helps to get your alternative l9ned up before you do it. I expect that unlike non-ruthless defaulters who are just overwhelmed ruthless defaulters are calculating ans so will probably take those steps.
I'm beginning to think I'm never gonna get that damn pony...
We will exceed 20% of mortgages written 2005-2007 where the homes are foreclosed, or have short sales. That should happen by about 2012. For CA, my bet is just under 30%. NV should go 40%+.
They will not all be in the process at once. You will have to follow vintages, and not point in time foreclosure numbers.
ghostface, I wish there were statistics on just how many walkaways there are from underwater mortgages compared to folks getting thrown out on their keisters.
In my stage of life, I am around a lot of families. Families with children like stability. Moving is disruptive, and being tossed out (or trading a home for a rental) is unsettling for the kids. It's another side of the elephant, but I am open to believing the other side does exist - I just don't encounter it.
If forclosures hit 15% we will be fighting over the
How many of us know what to do with one if we can catch it?
Obama really erred pushing an infrastructure and tax cut stimulus as his first (and so far only) big action. If the stimulus had been built around providing a Medicare buy-in for the uninsured it would have been just as stimulatory, much more appreciated by the recipients, and pretty much guaranteed a substantive health care reform.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:39 am
What would you suggest people do?
People who are walking away from underwater mortgages are doing what the government refuses to do - acknowledge their loss and suck it up early, get the damn thing behind them.
Don't tell me that TPTB didn't see this coming. It could have been handled much more smoothly and possibly even profitably, or failing that at least with much limited risk, loan modifications, cramdowns, principal write-downs, and taking known and limited losses. "Consumers", homedebtors, are just taking matters into their own hands now and losses will be higher, and the blowback that casts doubt on the relevance of ethics in our culture will have long-term consequences.
"If you are going to ruthlessly default - it helps to get your alternative l9ned up before you do it."
I think you'd need to balance the difficulty of obtaining a rental using trashed credit against the potential to live payment-free for 1 or more years. That is a lot of money on could save, that frankly could be used to sweeten the pot for any potential landlord. Hell, pay 6 months in advance.
CalPERS Walks Away
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: CalPERS Walks Away
Enlighten me, why do I continue to pay my Mortgage, small mortgage yes, but why?
"Families with children like stability. Moving is disruptive, "
So families with children shouldn't move? People with kids move all the time, for all kinds of reasons, most not related to walking away from an underwater mortgage.
Apparently the WH is surprised that progressives are making such a big deal about the Public Option. These guys must be really stupid to have been surprised. After all the sweet heart deals that they have cut with the banksters it is not surprising that progressives are making a big deal about the Public option. They want to see the health insurance companies visibly gored. They simply don't trust this administration to end up with a "reasonable compromise". I would think that there would be stronger support to see some corporate interest get whacked.
.....I pretty much said everything I had to say last thread: "green shoots & recovery my ass"
....just curious - are foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies usually considered LAGGING or LEADING Indicators?
This is a very amateur question, and probably very moronic...I know nothing about real estate...but if the health of the economy gets worse...and illegal and legal aliens flee the sinking ship...how much will this add to excess surplus? It is one thing to be able to pick up cheap houses...but will there be anyone to rent to? Following the migration patterns will be fascinating to watch over the next couple of years. The reason I ask, is we know several Brits, who have called it quits, and went back home recently.
You guys really think they are throwing people out? I just imagined they stopped paying and just pretend like they didn't. That's what I would do. Too much publicity is bad for things like this with the amount of people doing it.
I have a friend who recently purchased an expensive home after renting for a couple of years.
I was talking to him about it and he said that he purposefully did not put very much down and he figures the worst case is if real estate tanks he will stop paying and live for free for a year or so until he is kicked out and in that period he can recoup his downpayment by saving his mortgage payment so either way he does not lose.
Plus he always wanted a big house and he figures he may as well live that dream while he still has a job.
I think he is crazy but that's just me.
Fun times.
Bad data again...the market ignore it and is up again....tanks to the FED Philly - FakeIndex.
Please note that the date from the real economy are bad, while the FakeIndexes that nobody can verify are always "better that expected"....
My anecdotal impression is that ruthless defaulters are still a very small percentage. Of course, I'm in California, where pretty much anybody who bought during the bubble faces crushing payments after recast/reset, if not before. There are few bubble buyers here in a good enough position to even have the option of being ruthless.
The ruthlessness is by businesses, in CRE.
I agree with you that there many things to consider- hence my comment that those who ruthlessly default are "calculating". The point being that to cite anecdotal story about non ruthless defaulters doesn't apply to ruthless defaulters.
Manufacturing vs the rest of the economy:
Stability in manufacturing and construction will not help. Instead of these two areas we should be looking at the broader service and government sectors, which so far have been relatively less impacted, but which seem to be continuing to decline.
I don't care as much about the last wave. I want to know what the next wave will be.
So prime loans in foreclosure is a new wave. Government layoffs is a new wave. The question is how big will these waves be. If big enough they will swamp and green shoots in manufacturing.
"Enlighten me, why do I continue to pay, my Mortgage, small mortgage yes, but why? "
When a corporation walks away it is a business decision, but when an individual walks away it is a moral decision. go figure.
The govt knows that if individuals act in a rational manner like businesses are, the whole banking system will go under. So it is trying to bribe people into making decisions that are not in their best interest, via lowering mortgage rates (as if the rates are the problem). When the bribes don't work, they use shame and fear tactics. Just trying to herd the sheep.
Black Star Ranch (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:46 am
.....I pretty much said everything I had to say last thread: "green shoots & recovery my ass"
....just curious - are foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies usually considered LAGGING or LEADING Indicators?
Not an expert but I believe they are both lagging indicators, as are home starts and sales of existing homes.
@ Fair Economist (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 7:44 am
Obama really erred pushing an infrastructure and tax cut stimulus as his first (and so far only) big action. If the stimulus had been built around providing a Medicare buy-in for the uninsured it would have been just as stimulatory, much more appreciated by the recipients, and pretty much guaranteed a substantive health care reform.
I agree
DR. HOWARD DEAN: That's all I want. If you allowed people to buy into Medicare who are below 65 years old, that's a public option, and that's what we need.
The great communicator has no business experience - she nails it !
Daily Kos :: Comments Anthony Weiner kills on Morning Joe!!!! Medicare for all!!!
I'm very uncomfortable with his level of knowledge and experience in the business world. I think they snow and steamroll him. I saw it in the Wall St. bailout and I'm seeing it again now.
But he could certainly make the business case if he just got down to the basics. If he wanted to. If a real public option was really on the table. The business case is strong for expanding Medicare (and it saves Medicare as a whole in the long term).
I'm afraid he has mired himself in the details of all of this. When he started talking specifics about a particular drug in a town hall meeting (was it Lipitor?) I just put my head in my hands.
But more importantly than that, yes, I agree that "Medicare for all" was off the table from day one, as a public plan or as a universal single payer plan.
Matt Taibbi nailed it last night on Rachel Maddow's show. The deal was made long ago. No "Medicare for all" and no universal payer. That was the deal to get insurance companies and Big Health to come to the table and negotiate, and to agree not to declare war on Obama's health care reform.
My speculation is that these deals were facilitated by Tom Daschle, and they are now being negotiated largely by the Bipartisan Policy Center, which is Tom Daschle, Bob Dole, George Mitchell and Howard Baker. Kathleen Sebelius is on board with them and has been from the start. Anyone eligible for the HHS position had to be on board.
I'm starting to feel like a broken record on the Daschle thing but it's so clear that this has been in the works for over a year now. Look for Daschle if you want to understand what's going on. He's been there working with Obama for years now, and he wasn't campaigning. He was dealing with the Big Health companies. Also look up info. on Daschle's wife
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:49 am
The govt knows that if individuals act in a rational manner like businesses are, the whole banking system will go under. So it is trying to bribe people into making decisions that are not in their best interest, via lowering mortgage rates (as if the rates are the problem). When the bribes don't work, they use shame and fear tactics. Just trying to herd the sheep.
Economic rationality is a convenient way to ignore the law of unintended consequences
"My anecdotal impression is that ruthless defaulters are still a very small percentage."
How do you define one from the other? Many people could make a higher interest payment, if they sacrificed their lifestyle, but choose not to. The only real people with no choice are those with no income and no savings. the rest are making an economic decision.
They want to see the health insurance companies visibly gored. They simply don't trust this administration to end up with a "reasonable compromise"
I want to see real financial incentives for the insurance companies to be more efficient. Regulatory capture is too pervasive. The banksters control such financial regulation as we have; the insurance companies will control such regulation as we get. The public option is the only thing on the table which will really improve efficiencies and cut costs.
I think the "broken windows" theory applies to ruthless defaults as well. The trend builds slowly- at first its only a few . Continued economic pressure and observing the first lot get away with it causes more to do it, finally you get a wave. By the time you realize that you are in wave its too late.
Buy waiving taxes due on forgiven loans this administration has removed a strong disincentive to ruthless default. Its one thing to ruthlessly default on a loan to a lender another thing all together to do it to the IRS..
We will exceed 20% of mortgages written 2005-2007 where the homes are foreclosed, or have short sales.
Maybe so, but that isn't what this figure represents. This has nothing to do with vintages. This is just a % of outstanding loans. Don't forget, new loans are added every day. For this reason alone, I don't think I'll be dining on
anytime soon. Hey, yo, Jay, keep the squirrels at bay!
"just curious - are foreclosures and mortgage delinquencies usually considered LAGGING or LEADING Indicators?"
according to some economists everything is a lagging indicator except the stock market.
i guess the stock market in Oct 2007 was leading...
AIG to repay its loan:
U.S. Stocks Advance as AIG Says It Expects to Repay Bailout - Bloomberg.com
This crisis wasn't so big, after all.
EDIT: /snark, of course
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:53 am
according to some economists everything is a lagging indicator except the stock market.
except futures. otherwise they wouldn't be futures, and pasts are a sure thing.
ghostface - I'm short on time, but I would venture to guess, and believe that I am not incorrect, that the far majority of foreclosures that involve families do not involve rational decisions based on economic realities, but instead involve a lot of pain and trauma.
And the premise that just because you're underwater means you should leave your home I do not buy either. I don't care how underwater my home gets, I love it and I'm staying as long as I can afford the (fixed rate) payments. I could care less what someone else values it at.
How do you define one from the other? Many people could make a higher interest payment, if they sacrificed their lifestyle, but choose not to. The only real people with no choice are those with no income and no savings. the rest are making an economic decision.
Everybody I know who is facing foreclosure is doing everything they can to avoid it - selling furniture, cutting out healthcare, whatever. You forget how expensive it is to live in modern American suburbia - you have to pay for cars, education, and healthcare, all at staggering prices. Most people haven't got much disposable income to cut.
Yal
Your question from a couple of threads back:
Can you explain again what you are saying about exhaustion rate ?
Comment by Yal from thread 'Weekly Unemployment Claims Increase, Workers Exhausting Extended Benefits'
.
What I am saying about exhaustion rate is laid out here:
energyecon: UI Exhaustion Rate - Declines As Monthly Total Climbs
.
In short, we see an ever larger incremental number of people exhausting their UI benefits each month (the red line on the first plot from the link), yet the exhaustion rate has gone down on a monthly basis (the second plot) due to the enormous increase in first time UI claimants six months earlier (the blue line on the first plot from the link) .
Obama really erred pushing an infrastructure and tax cut stimulus as his first (and so far only) big action. If the stimulus had been built around providing a Medicare buy-in for the uninsured it would have been just as stimulatory, much more appreciated by the recipients, and pretty much guaranteed a substantive health care reform.
Yes, well, that last part is the problem with your suggestion.
These are not errors by the administration; they're looking out for a primary constituency.
The reason the Public option is being opposed has nothing to do with the merits of its the idea. This is simply an ideological battle. If the Public option succeeds (as it is sure to given the performance of private insurance companies it is hard to do worse) it destroys the whole "government bad - private sector good" meme that is the rallying cry on the right. The last thing the right wing needs is for the public to be satisfied with a government program.
Our government hasn't shred their credibility based on the way these town halls have been conducted? We have too much patience. It's been something like: a) I'm going to listen to you and then vote the other way as I don't care; b) I'm going to invite you to my town hall and then berate you and score political/soundbyte points by talking about how you are stupid, and off your rocker; c) I'm not even going to bother with a town hall because I'm a chickenshit coward, and I really am not doing anything when in Washington except following the party line and repeating the party talking points.
If there was critical thinking going on with the health care bills, someone would've realized the direction the Dems were going would end up here. Same thing with the TARP. Same thing with the Iraq War. Oh, hey you know, we can't pull-out now since bombs keep going off... aren't they setting off bombs to ensure we stay...?
The public option is the only thing on the table which will really improve efficiencies and cut costs.
Those inefficiencies and costs are a feature, not a bug.
"i guess the stock market in Oct 2007 was leading... "
That is what cracks me up about the technical analysts crowing about how the econ graphs are starting to level off and "stabilize". While this might be true (courtesy of trillions of dollars worth of gov't crack) they are in no way an indication of where things are going, especially considering that the gov't crack is not unlimited and must be pulled at some point.
The graphs MAY indicate that we are stabilizing or they may be levelling off before another plunge down.....but according to the chartists we are out of the woods on this recession and they are now busily debating what the "recovery" will look like.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:13 am
@ Cinco.
RE: Financial Surveillance.
Seems like the "Health Care Reform" could be about the "National ID Card".
Right; you'll need it for everything..............
..............but voting.
I was told by a local that vacancies are rising rapidly in Battery Park City, the huge development between Ground Zero and the Hudson River, because Europeans who had been leasing/renting space were heading home in droves, being called back.
They liked living close to Wall Street.
Battery Park City was the center piece of a big push to make Lower Manhattan more residential (among non-Chinese and non-hippies). But that tide has washed out.
Medicare IS single payer
Medicare is simply a middle man facilitating the rules and payment between private health care providers and private citizens.
Weiner made the case that when the insurance company is the middle man, they take a much bigger cut than the govt. run Medicare does. And he made it clear that insurance companies do the same thing. They take a cut of every transaction -- a bigger cut than Medicare does.
But then, he really hit the important point: He asked what value the insurance company adds. This is talk that corporate America and business-minded folks can understand. "Value added" is a very familiar term to them. Weiner pointed out that insurance companies take a cut of every transaction without adding enough value to justify it.
More here
Daily Kos :: Comments Anthony Weiner kills on Morning Joe!!!! Medicare for all!!!
Yalt, I agree there are a lot of people in power whose main goal is making insurance companies rich. I think Obama isn't in that group, although, clearly many of his advisers are.
Yalt (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 9:58 am
The public option is the only thing on the table which will really improve efficiencies and cut costs.
Those inefficiencies and costs are a feature, not a bug.
At least here in 'Merica, we spell that J-O-B-S and executive pay packages.
Comrade Kristina (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:42 am
I'm beginning to think I'm never gonna get that damn pony...
Just for you
:
http://cgi.ebay.com/ANTIQUE-ROCKING-HORSE_W0QQitemZ370244839641QQcmdZViewItemQQptZFolk_Art?hash=item56344fe8d9&_trksid=p3286.c0.m14
If you think that you are at the center of the universe than you think your problems drive everything. I think we are still stuck in the thought process that holds the problems on wall street responsible for the economic melt down. Fix that problem and everything is alright.
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
Just back from the back of beyond, another wonderful sojourn into the Sierra Nevada...
Anything of note happen the last 10 days on the Eastern Front?, or just the usual game of "Kick The Can't"?
Rocky - that AIG non-article looks like taking the prize for the most blatant collusive puff piece of the day. Let's hope. There's no commitment, planning, volume, timeline or anything; that GS has put them on "conviction" buy is hardly an independent assessment of value and direction, and heading into op-ex it's precisely the kind of crass pumpery that we should expect, and all too often see.
"Conviction" is the right word for these people, just not in the way they meant it.
!!
C
If you believe the public option will be able to be cut costs; what the hell are insurance companies doing when they can already "improve efficiencies and cut costs". I guess they decided that they are profitable enough and are leaving money on the table? Really? I'm going to believe that just because someone with a govt hat says they can "improve efficiencies" they will be able to; and I believe the insurance companies don't want to improve efficiencies?
Maybe if the bill's were so poorly worded and were simple the other side of the debate wouldn't have ammunition, ie. whatever that electronic funds section was someone posted about; and the one about people not being able to change insurance companies under this bill.
Isn't the underlying problem Medicare insolvency; and the public option is really a ponzi scheme that will extend that insolvency out a few years?
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:49 am
This is a very amateur question, and probably very moronic...I know nothing about real estate...but if the health of the economy gets worse...and illegal and legal aliens flee the sinking ship...how much will this add to excess surplus?
Depends on the amount of "hot bunking" that's been going on-
Hmm...well after all your digital
and 
You can go here to get clean:
Pioneering Internet 'detox' center looks to cure online addicts
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:04 am
Just back from the back of beyond, another wonderful sojourn into the Sierra Nevada...
Anything of note happen the last 10 days on the Eastern Front?, or just the usual game of "Kick The Can't"?
Well, yesterday held a brief digression into kick the Kant.
@ crazyv
yep....the PTB have diagnosed the problem backwards. That is why the Depression is still ahead of us.
At most, Obama is a mediator among a lot of people whose main goal is making insurance companies rich. To say he is "in power" seems to me a stretch.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:57 am
Our government hasn't shred their credibility based on the way these town halls have been conducted? We have too much patience.
Maybe, maybe not:
Generic Congressional Ballot - Rasmussen Reports™
what little value they add- underwriting is being taken out of the equation. I am surprised that people don't understand a simple truth. The valued added that insurance company brings to the table is underwriting - a polite term for exclusion. An insurance company that is required to take every risk ( no medical history or pre -existing condition) is simply not an insurance company. It is just a marketing organization acting as a conduit between the provider and consumer.
Add insult to injury force everybody to purchase a product from a private company. Don't people realize that this is crony capitalism at its worst!. The public option at least gets around that basic problem. A government mandate doesn't enrich private players.
[Obama really erred pushing an infrastructure and tax cut stimulus as his first (and so far only) big action]
Oh really ? You might be forgetting his REAL big action - BAILING OUT BANKERS. That is all he's done so far. Great President!
CNBC: "Are foreclosures hurting the housing recovery?"
I think you're a bit confused here. One man's "cost" is another man's "revenue"...why would the insurance companies and various middlemen want to reduce revenue?
Here's a question: when you a write a check for your insurance premium, what fraction of it do you think actually reaches the underwriters on the risk? Put, another way, what loss ratio does the insurance company need to maintain in order to turn a profit? I'm sure the answer varies greatly depending on the particular type of insurance--let's use corporate D&O insurance because that's the line I know best.
[Edit: by "loss ratio" I mean losses divided by gross premiums. The loss ratio companies disclose are based on net premiums--they let you see the internal inefficiency at the insurer itself but not the skimming done by various brokers in the transaction.]
regarding PBR and Soros.....he lost his ass on oil last year so they are just making it back for him so he stays quiet. His recent book has NO mention of oil at all. What does that tell you?
Ciao
MS
Meet the new boss... same as the old boss.
$200 billion of supply from the Treasury next week.
re: km4
From the link; I really don't want to get into the debate.
One point I wish Weiner had emphasized to Joe is that new subscribers will be paying premiums to Medicare and because they will be younger than the current Medicare recipients they will both increase the risk pool and add younger members, which should bring down the cost for everyone.
This makes my point that is all about extending the medicare ponzi scheme. Currently you'll be forced to carry some insurance; no doubt the public option would look good... so the young will be joining the Medicare ponzi.
And if you don't join the ponzi scheme you'll be fined for being uninsured. The way the bill is written appears nasty.
But look, I think I've people I trust say the only way to really change/reform health care is to go for single payer. Since that was taken off the table when Obama played nice with the insurance companies, what's the point in subsidizing people into the insurance companies? If we don't get single payer, we're not getting health care reform. And a majority of Americans have been convinced that single payer is bad. Hence, most Americans have been convinced that health care reform itself is bad. This was my conclusion awhile ago.
"Some signs of stabilizing"
In the TV medical dramas, the patient lies in bed in distress, with the heartrate monitor shown over his shoulder with its squiggley line. Then it flatlines.
New comment for the nurse/MD to make to the patient's family: "This is a sign of stabilizing". Sounds much better than 'they are dead'.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:05 am
Isn't the underlying problem Medicare insolvency; and the public option is really a ponzi scheme that will extend that insolvency out a few years?
That, and unintended consequences. These DailyKOS types keep talking about Medicare efficiency, but they fail to recognize that the "cost saving" achieved by Medicare were actually referenced to cost increases paid by everyone else. That's why the very highest prices paid for medical services are paid by the uninsured; it's so that it will appear as though the large pools are paying less. Remember," there's a fine line between clever and stupid".
.....on an earlier thread I was "corrected" by a few re: Canadians using US healthcare facilities because of long waits for surgeries locally..........interesting article of just that:
"Canadians visit U.S. to get care"
"The agreements show how a country with a national care system -- a proposal not part of the health care changes under discussion in Congress -- copes with demand for care with U.S. partnerships, rather than building new facilities."
http://freep.com/article/20090820/BUSINESS06/908200420/1319/
Take a name asswipe (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:10 am
CNBC: "Are foreclosures hurting the housing recovery?"
Tomorrow's headline:
Bankruptcies and layoffs hurting consumer recovery
Cue theme song from Brazil...
Rogue plumbers do your duty!
"Same thing with the Iraq War. Oh, hey you know, we can't pull-out now since bombs keep going off... aren't they setting off bombs to ensure we stay...? "
They're setting off bombs because sunni's and shia's have been killing each other for over 1400 years. Their strong arm dictactor has been replaced by an ineffectual leader put into place by an invading, occupying army. As the occupiers withdrawl, now or 20 yrs. from now, centuries old hatreds will be stoked as a tool to grab power and access to the trillions of dollars that flow beneath the sands of Iraq. The Iraq civil war wasn't ended by the occupying army, only delayed.The Iraq war hasn't even begun.
China National Petroleum and Cnooc recently offered $17 billion for Repsol’s 84% stake in the Argentine oil company, which which could be the biggest overseas investment by China
High crimes and malfeasance in the mountains:
We hung out with a friend who's a backcountry ranger on the John Muir Trail (near Bench Lake trail) and the day before we got there, a gentleman with a couple of dogs had been reported on the JMT trail (fido is strictly forbidden in the backcountry of our National Parks) that had eluded 2 other backcountry rangers, but the end of the line came for him, when our buddy the long arm of the law spotted the canines with master in tow, and that was all she wrote.
It's like a $200 fine and a mandatory court appearance for the dog handler, and he had to vamoose off the JMT after having walked around 100 miles of it.
New Ca$h for Clunkers program.
Gov't will accept your parents for cash.
Because the soylent green factories are short on inventory.
C
NY dealers pull out of clunkers program
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
Sure, let's let the .gov run health care.......Dopes/
The Two-Track Economy
The Two-Track Economy « The Baseline Scenario
By Simon Johnson
The United States has, over the past two decades, started to take on characteristics more traditionally associated with Latin America: extreme income inequality, rising poverty levels, and worsening health conditions for many. The elite live well and seem not to mind repeated cycles of economic-financial crisis. In fact, if you want to be cynical, you might start to think that the most powerful of the well-to-do actually don’t lose much from a banking sector run amok – providing the government can afford to provide repeated bailouts (paid for presumably through various impositions on people outside the uppermost elite strata).
Ultimately, of course, you get lower growth. But by the time that is clear in the numbers, it may be too late to do much about it.
Uh-oh- look like the Dems may turn their own:
Obama's Enforcer: Not Really Tough Enough - Rasmussen Reports™
Apparently, Rahm Emanuel just isn't mean enough for their liking.
Corporate Defaults Soar to $453 Billion, S&P Reports
Corporate Defaults Soar to $453 Billion, S&P Reports (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Yup all is well all is well.
NY dealers pull out of clunkers program
The pull out method is not reliable.
Nashuatelegraph.com: Frontpage : News and Classifieds from Southern New Hampshire
Your stimulus dollars at work:
"The report also revealed that through the end of June that stimulus money created or saved 796 jobs, with 700 of those state workers who did not have to get laid off thanks to the federal grants, Fitch said."
Sure, let's let the .gov run health care.......Dopes/
For all those who say this, I wish the government would get rid of Medicare and lets see how well this goes down with the public. The government already runs health care for the people who are most likely to use it. The private sector then gets to cherry pick the best out of the rest while denying coverage to the infirm.
Yeah, I wish the government took its hands off my Medicare.
Bloomberg said Google was added to the GS conviction buy list, not AIG.
cinco-x,
nice link.
this should allow us to reverse engineer the exact amount of taxpayer dollars necessary to create or save a single job...and soon as that number is published I will seal the underground biosphere in my backyard.
--bh
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:30 am
NY dealers pull out of clunkers program
The pull out method is not reliable.
Right; we've already been screwed-
Just when you think you have seen it all:
US Program Will Offer Rebates For Household Appliances
WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com
Isn't it odd that our government which could come up with $787 Billion in a heartbeat for clunkers then, seems stretched to come up with a couple billion for clunkers now?
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:32 am
cinco-x,
nice link.
this should allow us to reverse engineer the exact amount of taxpayer dollars necessary to create or save a single job...and soon as that number is published I will seal the underground biosphere in my backyard.
--bh
How well fortified is it?
Saw it already, that's why I was joking about another Ca$h for Clunkers program.
So much for deflation.
Isn't that always the plan? The profitable pieces of a particular industry are run by private firms; a public entity then operates what's left, be it fundamental scientific research or healthcare for the elderly and the destitute or education for special-needs kids or (in the old days) post offices in East BF, Montana, and then the fact that the public entities aren't profitable is supposed to be proof that privately run business is more efficient.
No dogs allowed on back country trails seems like a crime to me. As long as your critters are under control and don't hurt anyone, dogs were made for backcountry.
Back on topic, hoops said he saw encampments on his endeavor. Anything like that reported to you by your ranger friends?
JS - damn, you mean there's a fact in the article?
Grrr.
C
shill,
nice link.
So that's less than a dollar per person in 50 states, or up to $200 per person for the right kind of appliance until the money runs out.
I still vote for a stimulus octagon where contenstants, I mean citizens, can fight to the death over a pile of money, say, $300 in single denominations...with 3 % of the broadcasts rights going back to the Treasury to pay for the program which will be run by a consortium of consulting firms.
--bh
shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:33 am
Just when you think you have seen it all:
US Program Will Offer Rebates For Household Appliances
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090819-713704.html
Now I'm glad I never got around to throwing away some of my old, defunct microwave ovens. Think there's any chance there'll be rebates for old computers, stereos, nightstand cowboy 's, etc.?
AIG to repay its loan
The article goes on to state that the company doesn't believe it can pay back the government through earnings alone (shocking i know), so it must rely on asset sales.
Here's where I get confused. If we (the people of the US) own 80% of AIG and the company sells a portion of itself to raise say $10B which is used to repay the loan, does the balance of the loan drop by $10B or a mere $2B?
Simply put, how can party A pay back a loan to party B by selling an item that party B already owns 80% of? Now granted, this is the US government, so I'm sure they have figured out how to make this type of accounting work given their years of experience managing the social security trust fund.
Anyone care to enlighten me on how the accounting works?
Bernie Madoff has a better chance of paying off his investors than does AIG.
The problem with dogs in the backcountry is what happens when they encounter bears. That's ok I suppose if you're in the middle of nowhere, but frequent dog-bear encounters in a heavily-trafficked national park is asking for trouble.
Right; we've already been screwed - C
But not in a place likely to cause pregnancy.
"hoops said he saw encampments on his endeavor. Anything like that reported to you by your ranger friends?"
Yes,
Vast amounts of homeless people were spotted-the encampments seldom lasting more than one night, many with just scant amounts of food and the barest of necessities.
They seemed happy...
Sadly, the multiple clunkers programs will only make next year worse. Maybe that economics stuff is too tricky for the elected elite.
Ha. ha. ha. You know what I mean.
And in the winter?
Had to brag, didn't 'cha
AIG to repay its loan:
That article is based on a completely content-free statement of the new CEO?!
AIG jumped 31 percent to $34.93 after Benmosche said in an interview in Croatia that “at the end of the day, we believe we will be able to pay back the government and we hope we will be able to do something for our shareholders as well.”
When did leadership turn into making wishful statements? That works only for as long as your sheep have wool in their eyes.
huh, that's what this plot of real incomes shows - the mean of each quintile plus the mean of the top 5% - since 1980:
energyecon: Distribution of Real Income Growth since 1980
.
um, have the real costs for anything gone up faster than the rate of inflation (increased in real terms)? Let's make a list!
cinco-x,
in my imagination it is very well fortified, for example, if it were ever breached, the stench alone would kill a thousand men...
--bh
a stimulus octagon where contenstants, I mean citizens, can fight to the death
It's called Congress.
a stimulus octagon where contenstants, I mean citizens, can fight to the death
2 men enter, 1 man leaves!
Actually, Broward, that's a pentagon, not an octogon.
Shill, so we started the cash for clunkers program with the financial bailout, extended it to cars, and now appliances. Looks like it will ultimately infiltrate the hospitals who really need a cash infusion or is it a cash transfusion?
Being homeless @ nearly 11,000 feet in the winter doesn't seem to work for most people.
AIG's CEO: "I'm green as a cucumber but I've got one boatload of AIG stock options, so, hell yea, I'm optimistic!"
For years US and European economists were critical of Japan for its failure to take aggressive measures to end its lost decade. Japan needed concerted fiscal stimulus. It needed to properly recapitalize its zombie banks. If obtuse Japanese policy makers only understood these points, the Lost Decade could have been averted. Now we Westerners understand that it was not economic obtuseness but political constraints that prevented more effective action. Too bad that there was not a better way of learning sympathy for Japan than by emulating its example.
The Primacy of Politics
Egun on = Good morning (literally: Good day)
Non dago komuna? = How is our new bank doing? (literally: Where are the toilets?)
Good news:
Right Direction or Wrong Track
34% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
Right Direction or Wrong Track - Rasmussen Reports™
This must be a
/When did leadership turn into making wishful statements? /
Clearly you have not worked in corporate america for the last 20 years where, and i must emphasize this, you must have a Vision Statement.
A Vision Statement is an otherwise incomprehensible series of circular run-on sentences that defines your purpose, goals, and, dare I say it, Vision. Without a Vision statement you are just a meek and pathetic carbon-based lifeform holding onto to a piece of driftwood in the middle of storm whereas possessing a Vision Statement is the acumen of accumulated civilized knowledge, condensced, clarified, and pure.
But seriously, have you ever asked for a business loan? because you typically don't get one without a portfolio and business plan, and you'd better have that refined cudgel of a Vision Statement in there somewhere.
--bh
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:44 am
cinco-x,
in my imagination it is very well fortified, for example, if it were ever breached, the stench alone would kill a thousand men...
--bh
Probably better than my ducks smell-
all hail the purple party
Somebody sum up the past 10 days action for me, as i've been without outside information outside...
Anything from freep.com is right wing propaganda and is pure BS.
Is it time to uncork the champagne?
I'll bet we could come up with some pretty spectacular Vision Statements for business-as-usual today.
Which all boil down in plain english to mean: "We intend on making the most amount of money through the least amount of work as possible."
I don't know why anyone would turn a loan down based on that shrewd vision.
jd
snafu
Somebody sum up the past 10 days action for me,
Same as it ever was?
And the days go by, water flowing under...
"Anything from freep.com is right wing propaganda and is pure BS."
Not everything. They re-published an article about me, and I guarantee it was truthful.
steelhead (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:54 am
Anything from freep.com is right wing propaganda and is pure BS.
But feel free to quote the DailyKOS
/snark
My Dinner with Andre?
blackhat (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:51 am
A Vision Statement is an otherwise incomprehensible series of circular run-on sentences that defines your purpose, goals, and, dare I say it, Vision. Without a Vision statement you are just a meek and pathetic carbon-based lifeform holding onto to a piece of driftwood in the middle of storm whereas possessing a Vision Statement is the acumen of accumulated civilized knowledge, condensced, clarified, and pure.
Almost all the precepts of a 'vision statement' are violated in a sacrifice to the corporation. Do they originate from the ground-level by the workers themselves? No. Are they clear and easy to understand? No. Do they help to unify or clarify the position of the workers to help give a unified sense of purpose? No, quite the opposite. In fact they are a travesty of command-and-control mentality.
Goldman and Bank of Amerika run the markets along with Geithner, and beagle boy Ben. There is no free markets, only welfare capitalism and socialism for capitalism.
good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www..

hat tip: finance news & finance opinions
why does the market keep going up even though the fundamentals aren't that great? Every day, week, month the market keeps going higher.
Re: Vision Statements
synergy
core competencies
going-forward space
level setting
holistic
transparent
Of course, the more nouns turned into verbs the better.
broward
water flowing under the bridge to circle around and do it again.
broward...
This is not my beautiful house...this is not my beautiful wife...
lot of that going on right now.
Oooh, I'm gonna make some popcorn
. Actually that's my suggestion for how California should choose which 40,000 of its prisoners gets released to satisfy the court order.
Until it gets cold
JD,
Anything new?
Let's see, financial and social cannobolism continues, unabated, unswayed, but also unsated.
Best not to look people in the eye or show off that you have all your digits.
--bh
@zertg (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 8:57 am
Goldman and Bank of Amerika run the markets along with Geithner....
Yup something like Ground Control to Major Douche
This is not my beautiful house...this is not my beautiful wife...
OH, THANK GOD!
S&P now over a thousand. Is it significant?
@JD,
The biggest event was probably the failure of Colonial.
Lots of discussion of FDIC DIF and what happens when it runs dry.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:57 am
Of course, the more nouns turned into verbs the better.
"Competencying" is a word, right?
while you guys/gals were doing Bretton Woods II I spent the day in genocide court... beats traffic court.

me, and the French press... Anglo-Saxons were under represented. court ended in a most unusual way
without an adjournment. I knew this was a good reason why we didn't join the ICC.
....
finally, got my blog up today at American Cong ... it's been sitting there for 15 months
looking for an idea... I think I've got the right mix of insipidness.
....
between fashion and genocide the trick will be to work in some of the stuff I've learned here...
duke
S&P now over a thousand. Is it significant?
It is, unless it isn't.
1 in 6 mortgages soon to be in foreclosure and US govt owns over half of them. I would not want the US govt as my creditor.
Think student loans and debts that are never discharged.
damn. GM cancels the its new Buick SUV based on the bad Twitter reviews. I sense in opening in astro-twitting.
Re: But feel free to quote the DailyKOS
There is little point in sending facts to people in opposite PT's. They won't be comprehended. It's best to send all facts about climate change, regulations, weapon of mass delusion, abortion, fornicating-harlots, and other topics - best described as bullshit-machine based - to dumbasses IN the same PT's.
(OH, and all my "ism" is better than YOUR "ism" facts too.)
I like the Duke mostly because he makes me look normal.
Re: Competencying"
ABSOLUTELY, in fact, I think I'll use it in a meeting today. I don't think I ever heard it used. I might get a promption out of this.
Thanks ahead of time!
JD, unemplyment, consumer confidence, the deficit, and home foreclosures have all gotten "unexpectedly" worse.
Stocks, commodities, oil, and the dollar are all up, much as expected.
England joins Germany, France, Japan, and Korea in announcing that the recession is over. They are just checking to see that the recovery "has legs."
And Cash for Clunkers will apparently be extended to household appliances.
In short, things are unexpectedly steadily getting worserer, just like all year so far, but its nevertheless all good on a go-forward basis.
(I threw a little "vision-statement" speak in there at the end!)
New Ca$h for Clunkers program.
Gov't will accept your parents for cash.
...
Because the soylent green factories are short on inventory.
Old folks fart too much: replace them with younger's and the climate change problem is solved
"I like the Duke mostly because he makes me look normal."
Why do you want to look normal?
Less hassle that way, I guess.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:02 am
damn. GM cancels the its new Buick SUV based on the bad Twitter reviews. I sense in opening in astro-twitting.
We already have plenty of real twits.
ResistanceIsFeudal (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:00 pm
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 10:57 am
Of course, the more nouns turned into verbs the better.
"Competencying" is a word, right?
Isn't competency the verb "compete" turned into a noun, in the same sense that abstinence is the noun form of the verb "abstain"?
OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR; The Greenback Effect - NY Times
With a few added billion $ in pocket, Warren is again a fiscal discipline zealot! So in summary, same ol, same ol.
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:03 am
Re: Competencying"
ABSOLUTELY, in fact, I think I'll use it in a meeting today. I don't think I ever heard it used. I might get a promption out of this.
Thanks ahead of time!
I do what I can. Good luck on the promption. Neologism is sort of like creativity, in much the same way that shuffling paper is sort of like creating value.
shuffling paper is sort of like creating value.
Shuffling paper creates static electricity which can be captured for peaceful purposes.
Lotta paper shuffling at poker tables, too.
Competencying will go into the Hall of the Vision Statement, as will its cousin Competencized.
--bh
Re: Neologism is sort of like creativity,
It's the ONLY creativity left at the 4th National Zombie bank. Been that way for, oh, 10 years now.
comade kristina
hello here
one of the eternal questions, broward - creating value or just extracting it?
Dawg,
trying to be first?
You've been quiet lately; are you just continually refreshing Calculated Risk
I think Dawg's still trying to absorb the "California situation".
GAZ and what looks like the near term natgas contract have moved in opposite directions...
bizarre
The problems are real…at the heart of the real economy. They are not problems that can be solved by monkeying with the money supply, interest rates, or even fiscal policy. They are problems that need to be solved by the real economy…in the real economy…by consumers, who need to pay off their debts, and by businessmen, who need to adjust to the realities of the real world – adapting their capacity so as to produce things for people who can actually afford to buy them. It’s a long process…with many bankruptcies and disappointments along the way…
That process has only just begun. It will deepen and get worse, as both consumers and businessmen realize that there will be no quick recovery…and no return to the old model – ever. Look for more layoffs…more foreclosures…more cutbacks and workouts…
Look for more depression, dear reader…
And learn to like it; it will be with us for a long time
Learn to Love the Depression
I don't think you can absorb black holes, I think they absorb you...
energyecon (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:11 am
one of the eternal questions, broward - creating value or just extracting it?
Stealing it from natural law and claiming it as a virtue endogenously produced by the paper itself.
zertg
the market is the bubble!!!!
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:12 pm
I think Dawg's still trying to absorb the "California situation".
Rob's not old enough to worry about CALpers yet, is he?
Everybody is old enough to worry about CALPERS.
Watch it get tacked onto CA income tax!
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 11:16 am
Everybody is old enough to worry about CALPERS.
Watch it get tacked onto CA income tax!
Too many taxes in lovely Cali and its residents will have to rename it outcome tax.
AIG, up $7 today and prepared to pay back their loan? Where's the money coming from? The printing presses of the US and China must be running full throttle. When is our government going to open up the books of Wall Street and the Federal Reserve like Ron Paul requested? Traitors or New World Order ? Here's a repeat of an article I posted yesterday.
February 22, 2009
Hillary thanks China for stealing American jobs, asks them to please keep doing it
by Howard Richman
During a diplomatic trip to China, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton just thanked China for stealing American jobs and asked them to please keep doing it. Here is what she said:
In Beijing, she called on authorities in Beijing to continue buying US Treasuries, saying it would help jumpstart the flagging US economy and stimulate imports of Chinese goods.
"By continuing to support American Treasury instruments the Chinese are recognising our interconnection. We are truly going to rise or fall together," Clinton said at the US embassy here.
Clinton had sought to focus on economic and environmental issues in Beijing, saying Washington's concerns about the human rights situation in China should not be a distraction from those vital matters.
In order to understand just how deluded this statement is, you just need to know:
Hillary was endorsing Chinese currency manipulations. The Chinese government buys US Treasury bonds so that they can keep their currency low and our currency high. Such purchases are an important component of China's mercantilist strategy of maximizing exports and minimizing imports. They buy US assets instead of US products. Hillary's praise of Chinese US Treasury bond purchases was a clear signal that the Obama administration is in favor of China's continuing currency manipulations.
Hillary was selling out US producers. Detroit is in trouble partly because China maintains 25% tariffs on US auto parts, tariffs that were found to be illegal by the WTO. Similarly, China agreed to give up their export subsidies when they joined the WTO, but increased them as part of their stimulus package to fight this recession, leading to a new US complaint with the WTO. Hillary's public silence on these issues was a tacit endorsement of China's illegal trade practices.
We don't need China's bond purchases. If China stopped buying US Treasury bonds right now, there would be very little effect upon the United States. American interest rates would go up enough to invite the glut of worldwide savings into the United States in order to earn the higher interest rate. There would be plenty of foreign savings available to make up for any slowing in Chinese government purchases of US Treasuries.
A few weeks ago, I wrote a satire about Secretary Geithner's future constructive dialogue with Chinese leaders. Turns out that Secretary Clinton's real dialogue with the Chinese leaders was even more ridiculous. In that imagined dialogue I had Geithner asking the Chinese leaders to buy more American products so that we could buy more Chinese imports. I had the Chinese leaders reassuring him that they would lend us more money so that we could buy their products. Hillary skipped the imagined Geithner request and jumped right over to the Chinese position.
Ironically, both President Obama and Secretary Clinton campaigned against Chinese currency manipulations when they were running for president. That was when they were seeking the support of the industrial unions. Now they are willing to give away American manufacturing just so that they can get more cheap Chinese loans to finance their massive give-aways.
Posted by Howard Richman at 3:44 PM
e US and China? To repeat an article I posted yesterday:
Some computer's probably about to blow a gasket making sure that the VIX lands precisely on the max pain point. It's 25.00 as I write.
I was wondering why there was so little Calpers snark today. I see I was just a bit early. Actually, in their defense, walking away from that building in Portland seems like the best option, of investing in it in the first place may not have been.
Ba ba ba BONDS!
Furriners say rude things about T-notes:
Treasuries Increase as Government Leaves Auction Sizes Steady - Bloomberg.com
C
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/20/2009 - 12:16 pm
Everybody is old enough to worry about CALPERS.
Watch it get tacked onto CA income tax!
I hope so; I'm in MA, so as long as it doesn't end up on the Federal income tax, I'm good. So I guess I'm 'a little bit' worried-
Hey, I'm in California and I had to help pay for the big dig, so fair's fair.
gotta be some kinda squeeze with the near term nat gas sporting a 2 handle...have to be some indpendent oil & gas co's getting sweaty seeing that...
"Anything from freep.com is right wing propaganda and is pure BS."
......I'll step out on a limb here and suggest anyone who would refuse ANY message from any carrier during an "unfinished experiment", in fact might be a bigger fool than the messenger.
I'm not the greatest fan of the Detroit Free Press but to single it out as an example of "right wing propaganda" is bizarre to say the least.
Or did you confuse it with freerepublic.com?
Re: refuse ANY message
Refusing the message ISN'T the problem. Each PT's brain's bullshit machine is purposely designed to filler (reject or distort) the bullshit coming FROM another PT's. This is how humans maintain their sanity. So, there's no point is talking about "messages". Nobody can hear anything other their own PT's bullshit.
Sorry, just how our brains work.
Do you think he knew what was coming or had any influence?
Only an idiot could believe that during the campaign Brobama's millions of "small donations" were legit.
"I want to see real financial incentives for the insurance companies to be more efficient."
Stop, you're scaring me.
There never was going to be any health care reform. It is just an insurance company bailout. If the government takes all the health risks out of the insurance pool it makes health insurers more profitable.
Get finance out of public health if you want reform.
And end secret and discriminatory pricing.
Re: were legit.
Some dumbasses believe in "small donations" others in Weapons of Mass Delusion. As somebody famous once said: The dumbasses are always with us (or something like that).
.......PT? "political type"? Is that kind of like "he can hit a high-inside curveball?"....give me a break. Some variables always exist and "minor agreements" have even won wars - but only if they're read, digested, and understood and agreed upon.
Re: but only if they're read, digested, and understood and agreed upon
Nope, these aren't "minor agreement" issue. They are fundamental to the way the brain works - meaning; what story each of our bullshit machines is creating to reconcile the individuals fixed underlying personality attributes (see below) versus reality.
The type 1's are primarily mean and exclusionary of outsiders.
The type 2's are primarily guilty and inclusionary of outsiders.
These two types aren't going to agree on anything, except (maybe) sports and the weather.
I was told by a local that vacancies are rising rapidly in Battery Park City, the huge development between Ground Zero and the Hudson River, because Europeans who had been leasing/renting space were heading home in droves, being called back.
==========
yep, had friends there that moved back to europe already, very happy to go back and being closer to family. ... i wonder whether i'll have any friends staying in usa sometimes...
My problem is that I think it was the economic rot that caused wall street's problem. It was all the fancy financing designed to get around the economic rot that blew up. Nothing I can tell has been done to address that basic underlying problem.
wage earnings peaked on 1975, the savings rate decreased during the 80s, 90s, 2000s... the problem is people believing they have a lifestyle to support instead of defining the lifestyle that can be supported by earnings imho. what level of consumption defines the middle-class has to go down when their discretionary income ends up being a third of what it was, that simple.
no
‘Signs of Stability’
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the U.S. economic recovery is still in its early stages, propelled by an improving job market and a housing industry that’s beginning to stabilize.
“We have a long way to go, but we are starting to see signs of stability, and these signs mark the first steps to recovery,” Geithner said in prepared remarks in Ohio. Afterwards the crowd of Obama supporters cheered as Geithner just waved at the crowd and swung his 20 foot nose side to side proudly like Pinocchio.
Am I just flippin dumb or just missing something? Every idicator I've seen points down however everytime someone in Washington lips move there is a parade with confetti. What will they do when every American loses trust in them for the lies?
I don't think very many people have a handle on just how bad things really are with housing. My own research of local markets repeatedly show that despite (a) bank efforts to contain inventory, (b) massive Fed support of mortgage markets, and (c) clearly speculative buying behaviour (i.e., multiple offers, bid-ups, etc.); house prices, at best, are only leveling off. This means that all the inventory easing that is shaving supply off core markets to 1- to 2-months -- comparable to 2003-05 levels which saw prices soar -- is merely seeing price "level off". Can you imagine what another 18-24 months of prime foreclosures and delinquencies will do to counter all that support?