I guess I'm misreading this graph, because I don't understand the lending standards line. I realize it's month-to-month change, but does this mean that standards have been gradually relaxing since January? It's seems like a pretty dramatic relaxation over the past 8 months or so, unless I'm reading it wrong.
Disintermediation now! Ship all loan officers off to re-education camps in the Imperial Valley. Transfer $100K to each Treasury Direct account. Hand out $10K ATM cards at Post Offices and the DMV. YES WE CAN!
"Would one expect the restaurants to have have more demand or less?"
Probably depends on the restaurant and menu. If it is a trendy, pricey, downtown eatery, it might work well. For McDonald's, I suspect it might have a negative impact.
I'd certainly be more prone to go to the White Tie and Tails restaurant. But I'm sick of the number of slobs I see around here. Partially it's the continued drift toward informality in dress and partially it's that I live in a poorer area where people think wife beaters and gym shorts or track suits are proper dining attire.
Treasuries will see a relatively short period of buying support as equities, commodities and corporate debt start to suffer. Naturally Treasury yields will drop somewhat as a result. Then everything, and I do mean everything, will sell-off.
The real long bond (30 yr) interest rate can be expected to move 12% from trough to peak. The real long bond interest rate can be defined as "the yield on the 30 year Treasury Bond less CPI". The trough was around 1% (i.e. 4% less 3%).
Therefore the peak in the real long bond interest rate can be expected to reach in the vicinity of 13%. This could reasonably be expected to be made of a 30 year Treasury Bond yield of 7% to 8% with an accompanying CPI in the order of -6% to -5%.
The 12% move in real long interest rates has occurred in each of the 5 previous Great Financial Disasters (1720, 1772, 1825, 1873 & 1929) that have occurred since the creation of the first "for profit" central bank (i.e. the Bank of England in 1694).
This can be expected to occur relatively quickly, certainly by next year and it is the hallmark of illiquidity. Few will be borrowing and few will be lending. Lenders will focus on those with the most pristine balance sheet and those with the most pristine balance sheet will wish to keep it that way and thus avoid debt or more debt. This is referred to as "pushing on a string".
The ramifications of significantly higher interest rates combined with a deflationary environment for anyone with significant debt can be imagined. Property values will come under further and severe pressure and unemployment will bloat.
However the higher real interest rates will be relatively short-lived even if their effects will not be. Thereafter interest rates will collapse once more. They will go lower and lower and lower and lower and lower. But that's what happens in a depression.
But then again what do I know " would you like to biggie size that miss "
The article requested is no longer available.
"SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
........................
"We all agree that the system is imploding, we all agree that things are more precarious than perhaps Canadians realize," Doing said in an interview with The Canadian Press."
Uh-oh!
Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away." - Benjamin Netanyahu. A comment made by Netanyahu to Jonathan Pollard (convicted traitor and spy) upon exiting Pollard's jail cell.
"SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
........................
"We all agree that the system is imploding, we all agree that things are more precarious than perhaps Canadians realize," Doing said in an interview with The Canadian Press."
Uh-oh!
The humorous thing is that in Canada, opponents to introducing any sort of private-sector solution call on the "we're moving toward an American System" bogeyman.
I try to limit myself to memes from 4chan. They're more honest than those created by the financial industry.
For those of you contemplating a google search for 4chan, don't. At least, don't do it at work. And if you do, do not, under ANY circumstances, visit /b/, the asshole of the internet.
Just don't. I know we're all big boys and girls, but no good can come out of visiting that location on the internet.
Having said that, I have never laughed as hard in my life as I have in that board. A couple beers, a sleepless night, and you might be ready for that collection of retards, perverts, and sick bastards.
You are certainly are not shy about making bold predictions. A 12% real interest rate sound tasty, but there is that darned timing issue that always gets in the way.
Your list of financial disasters is around 50 years apart. Now, where have I heard that before?
My long wave book is in the mail. I know we have some long wavers here.
Winston (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/17/2009 - 11:13 am
Nemo, I think that things are going to stop getting worse more slowly soon.
I've read more than a few posts on CR over the last couple of years. This is the best summation of the current economic situation I have read so far. I nominate it for "Post of the Year"!
The U.S. recession is ending “right now,” said Abby Joseph Cohen, a senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The economy may grow by 3 percent in the next couple of quarters and expand by 1.5 percent to 2 percent next year, Cohen said. While consumer spending is likely to rise, it probably won’t increase as fast as at the end of prior periods when the U.S. was emerging from a recession, she said.
“Clearly the economy is on the mend,” Cohen said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “We do think that profit growth will be more substantial going forward.”
"SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
I know doctors are smart and all but what they hell do they know about running a health care system? It's like putting bankers in charge of curing the economy, stupid...
/b/ is DEFINITELY NSFW but... I'd argue more wholesome than what transpires in the hallways of JP Morgan.
It's an acquired humour taste, sort of like watching midgets punch each other in the crotch while balancing rotten eggs on their heads and singing the star-spangled banner.
Re: It's an acquired humour taste, sort of like watching midgets punch each other in the crotch while balancing rotten eggs on their heads and singing the star-spangled banner.
Bought bananas, apples, cherries, sweet potatoes,
salad bags, watermelon tho. A small turkey. Some rock cornish game hens. And less tastily some hurricane supplies in cans.
Even though this thread is long since pigged I like this question so I'll weigh in.
I'm a good restaurant customer. I go to expensive non-chain restaurants, order pricey wines and use 20% as my tip standard. When I go out to eat I like to relax and focus on my dining companions and the food. I do not want it to resemble going to work in any way. If a restaurant instituted a tight old-fashioned dress code I'd drop it like a rock. I'd never return. Good customer lost.
flaminia (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/17/2009 - 1:11 pm
reply ignore user
Even though this thread is long since pigged I like this question so I'll weigh in.
I'm a good restaurant customer. I go to expensive non-chain restaurants, order pricey wines and use 20% as my tip standard. When I go out to eat I like to relax and focus on my dining companions and the food. I do not want it to resemble going to work in any way. If a restaurant instituted a tight old-fashioned dress code I'd drop it like a rock. I'd never return. Good customer lost.
I disagree. Sure, a tie is not necessary but Dead Kennedy's t-shirts are not a good idea either. A moderate dress code for fine dining does several things not least culling out those there on a whim rather than deliberately choosing.
Damn, I should have checked in on this when I was home for lunch! I don't really care why other people are in a restaurant that I enjoy. They will not impact my experience. I just want to enjoy the experience myself and part of that is relaxing in casual clothes. Perhaps I'm just a more culturally casual person than you, Rob. It could even reflect that I'm Californian born and raised whereas I think you hail from some such place as Boston. I'd never wear a Dead Kennedys shirt because I never got into them. And I wouldn't wear one of my Go Betweens shirts because I wouldn't want to ruin any of them with wine stains.
So that's inflationary, right?
Nemo, I think that things are going to stop getting worse more slowly soon.
One would never guess that tightened standards would weaken demand.
hoocoodanode?
Cheap money. Multiple bailouts. Credits for cars, houses, over-valued real estate property.
Why bother with a loan when Uncle Smack can pick up you for free?
(Edit: I weep for my silver.)
more on: One would never guess that tightened standards would weaken demand.
So, there's a restaurant in Your Town. People usually wear jeans and informal stuff to the local restaurants.
So, three successful restaurants begin to demand that White Tie and Tails be worn by males, and little black dresses by females.
Would one expect the restaurants to have have more demand or less?
Would one expect the restaurants to have have more demand or less? - JPO
I'd be happy just to get the ripped jeans and dirty shorts out of the opera.
Re: Would one expect the restaurants to have have more demand or less?
What is Skimming-the-Cream marketing technique? (more?)
I'll take Bike Shops for 400, Jim.
I guess I'm misreading this graph, because I don't understand the lending standards line. I realize it's month-to-month change, but does this mean that standards have been gradually relaxing since January? It's seems like a pretty dramatic relaxation over the past 8 months or so, unless I'm reading it wrong.
Why doesn't the Fed survey show the credit bubble?
Disintermediation now! Ship all loan officers off to re-education camps in the Imperial Valley. Transfer $100K to each Treasury Direct account. Hand out $10K ATM cards at Post Offices and the DMV. YES WE CAN!
Bumping a spotless credit record to 21% APR in a fruitless endeavor to recapitalize on the backs of depositors? Never happen...
"Would one expect the restaurants to have have more demand or less?"
Probably depends on the restaurant and menu. If it is a trendy, pricey, downtown eatery, it might work well. For McDonald's, I suspect it might have a negative impact.
CR,
Chart suggestion. Could you see if the three quarter moving average gets rid of the noise? I especially think basal trends might appear. TIA.
"Following a furor over how the data would be used, the White House has shut down an electronic tip box — flag@whitehouse.gov — that was set up to receive information on “fishy” claims about President Barack Obama’s health plan."
White House disables e-tip box - Mike Allen - POLITICO.com
Hoocoodanode-
I'd certainly be more prone to go to the White Tie and Tails restaurant. But I'm sick of the number of slobs I see around here. Partially it's the continued drift toward informality in dress and partially it's that I live in a poorer area where people think wife beaters and gym shorts or track suits are proper dining attire.
It will go something like this ...
Treasuries will see a relatively short period of buying support as equities, commodities and corporate debt start to suffer. Naturally Treasury yields will drop somewhat as a result. Then everything, and I do mean everything, will sell-off.
The real long bond (30 yr) interest rate can be expected to move 12% from trough to peak. The real long bond interest rate can be defined as "the yield on the 30 year Treasury Bond less CPI". The trough was around 1% (i.e. 4% less 3%).
Therefore the peak in the real long bond interest rate can be expected to reach in the vicinity of 13%. This could reasonably be expected to be made of a 30 year Treasury Bond yield of 7% to 8% with an accompanying CPI in the order of -6% to -5%.
The 12% move in real long interest rates has occurred in each of the 5 previous Great Financial Disasters (1720, 1772, 1825, 1873 & 1929) that have occurred since the creation of the first "for profit" central bank (i.e. the Bank of England in 1694).
This can be expected to occur relatively quickly, certainly by next year and it is the hallmark of illiquidity. Few will be borrowing and few will be lending. Lenders will focus on those with the most pristine balance sheet and those with the most pristine balance sheet will wish to keep it that way and thus avoid debt or more debt. This is referred to as "pushing on a string".
The ramifications of significantly higher interest rates combined with a deflationary environment for anyone with significant debt can be imagined. Property values will come under further and severe pressure and unemployment will bloat.
However the higher real interest rates will be relatively short-lived even if their effects will not be. Thereafter interest rates will collapse once more. They will go lower and lower and lower and lower and lower. But that's what happens in a depression.
But then again what do I know " would you like to biggie size that miss "
4shzl (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/17/2009 - 11:21 am
Hand out $10K ATM cards at Post Offices and the DMV.
We already have. They were called Stimpak I and II. What? You didn't get your share? Don't worry, when the bill comes due you'll surely get it then.
The article requested is no longer available.
"SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
........................
"We all agree that the system is imploding, we all agree that things are more precarious than perhaps Canadians realize," Doing said in an interview with The Canadian Press."
Uh-oh!
Ironically, there was a lot more glamour during the Depression. Here's one guy who could really rock a white tie and tails:
fred astaire - Google Search
Sure seems 'depressionary' to me.
Back from saving the world through food shopping and restaurant eating.
Are you all feeling a little safer now?
Jim, I think it's more like they're telling us they really won't serve bare-footers.
Re: Are you all feeling a little safer now?
Everything is imploding. What did you do? Most people seem to think you caused it.
Posted on this earlier, but more on-topic here:
For an entertaining commentary on bankers as lenders, read this
Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away." - Benjamin Netanyahu. A comment made by Netanyahu to Jonathan Pollard (convicted traitor and spy) upon exiting Pollard's jail cell.
Me personally?
Wow.
shill, do not get yogi and Mel started, sir.
It will go something like this ...
I wouldn't bet against this scenario.
A Battle of the Memes between Pimco's "New Normal" and JPMorgan's "V-shaped Recovery:"
No New Normal JPMorgan Sees V-Shaped Recovery in U.S. (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/17/2009 - 11:26 am
Back from saving the world through food shopping and restaurant eating.
Are you all feeling a little safer now?
That depends. Did you buy any of the VenCo crops that keep my area from imploding? Strawberries, nursery stock, lemons, celery, raspberries?
Benjamin Netanyahu. A comment made by Netanyahu to Jonathan Pollard (convicted traitor and spy) upon exiting Pollard's jail cell.
Cite, other than nutjob websites, like the one you copied that from, verbatim?
I try to limit myself to memes from 4chan. They're more honest than those created by the financial industry.
"SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
........................
"We all agree that the system is imploding, we all agree that things are more precarious than perhaps Canadians realize," Doing said in an interview with The Canadian Press."
Uh-oh!
The humorous thing is that in Canada, opponents to introducing any sort of private-sector solution call on the "we're moving toward an American System" bogeyman.
In the USA, it's the opposite.
Re: A Battle of the Memes between Pimco's "New Normal" and JPMorgan's "V-shaped Recovery:"
I like this comment:
Whenever we have plunged off a cliff and fallen into a deep hole in the past, for a while the economy has a tendency to bounce back very quickly.
Except when it hasn't, I guess.
They're more honest than those created by the financial industry. - W
True, but they're powerful. More powerful than I am, anyway. I feel like a very tiny mammal dodging massive dinosaur feet.
I try to limit myself to memes from 4chan. They're more honest than those created by the financial industry.
For those of you contemplating a google search for 4chan, don't. At least, don't do it at work. And if you do, do not, under ANY circumstances, visit /b/, the asshole of the internet.
Just don't. I know we're all big boys and girls, but no good can come out of visiting that location on the internet.
Having said that, I have never laughed as hard in my life as I have in that board. A couple beers, a sleepless night, and you might be ready for that collection of retards, perverts, and sick bastards.
@shill,
You are certainly are not shy about making bold predictions. A 12% real interest rate sound tasty, but there is that darned timing issue that always gets in the way.
Your list of financial disasters is around 50 years apart. Now, where have I heard that before?
My long wave book is in the mail. I know we have some long wavers here.
/b/ is DEFINITELY NSFW but... I'd argue more wholesome than what transpires in the hallways of JP Morgan.
i thought we were awash in credit. all the indicators say so.
i'll bet today is a repeat of friday. unfortunately, friday's stick save didn't save asia.
Winston (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/17/2009 - 11:13 am
Nemo, I think that things are going to stop getting worse more slowly soon.
I've read more than a few posts on CR over the last couple of years. This is the best summation of the current economic situation I have read so far. I nominate it for "Post of the Year"!
in dallas? phphp... sounds like a great business plan to me!
The U.S. recession is ending “right now,” said Abby Joseph Cohen, a senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
The economy may grow by 3 percent in the next couple of quarters and expand by 1.5 percent to 2 percent next year, Cohen said. While consumer spending is likely to rise, it probably won’t increase as fast as at the end of prior periods when the U.S. was emerging from a recession, she said.
“Clearly the economy is on the mend,” Cohen said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “We do think that profit growth will be more substantial going forward.”
Bawhahahahahahahahaaaaaa ahaaaaaaa, ahahaha, Bahahwhahahaha
"SASKATOON — The incoming president of the Canadian Medical Association says this country's health-care system is sick and doctors need to develop a plan to cure it.
I know doctors are smart and all but what they hell do they know about running a health care system? It's like putting bankers in charge of curing the economy, stupid...
i would agree with you wheelman, but i think the commenter is wrong. i really don't see things getting better from here for quite some time...
/b/ is DEFINITELY NSFW but... I'd argue more wholesome than what transpires in the hallways of JP Morgan.
It's an acquired humour taste, sort of like watching midgets punch each other in the crotch while balancing rotten eggs on their heads and singing the star-spangled banner.
Abby looks like she's been stress eating.
Re: It's an acquired humour taste, sort of like watching midgets punch each other in the crotch while balancing rotten eggs on their heads and singing the star-spangled banner.
I might pay to see that.
Nope Dawg.
Bought bananas, apples, cherries, sweet potatoes,
salad bags, watermelon tho. A small turkey. Some rock cornish game hens. And less tastily some hurricane supplies in cans.
Oh, yeah, termatas.
You doomers will love this-- catastrophe bonds are going up:
Catastrophe Bonds Reach 2009 High on Storm Outlook (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
@ Liz.
From this weekend.
Free Plans To Build your own Bicycle Generator Pedal Power Station
The TA people are looking for "signs and portents" of a September S & P crash:
China Equity Slump Signals S&P 500 to Fall: Technical Analysis
China Equity Slump Signals S&P 500 to Fall: Technical Analysis - Bloomberg.com
Thanks, gnome.
Even though this thread is long since pigged I like this question so I'll weigh in.
I'm a good restaurant customer. I go to expensive non-chain restaurants, order pricey wines and use 20% as my tip standard. When I go out to eat I like to relax and focus on my dining companions and the food. I do not want it to resemble going to work in any way. If a restaurant instituted a tight old-fashioned dress code I'd drop it like a rock. I'd never return. Good customer lost.
flaminia (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/17/2009 - 1:11 pm
reply ignore user
Even though this thread is long since pigged I like this question so I'll weigh in.
I'm a good restaurant customer. I go to expensive non-chain restaurants, order pricey wines and use 20% as my tip standard. When I go out to eat I like to relax and focus on my dining companions and the food. I do not want it to resemble going to work in any way. If a restaurant instituted a tight old-fashioned dress code I'd drop it like a rock. I'd never return. Good customer lost.
I disagree. Sure, a tie is not necessary but Dead Kennedy's t-shirts are not a good idea either. A moderate dress code for fine dining does several things not least culling out those there on a whim rather than deliberately choosing.
Damn, I should have checked in on this when I was home for lunch! I don't really care why other people are in a restaurant that I enjoy. They will not impact my experience. I just want to enjoy the experience myself and part of that is relaxing in casual clothes. Perhaps I'm just a more culturally casual person than you, Rob. It could even reflect that I'm Californian born and raised whereas I think you hail from some such place as Boston. I'd never wear a Dead Kennedys shirt because I never got into them. And I wouldn't wear one of my Go Betweens shirts because I wouldn't want to ruin any of them with wine stains.