Lots of information (Anecdotal and real numbers) pointing to a double dip. Methinks Obama's favorite indicator (stock indexes) will drop (or be "driven down") and give him cover for another round of poines, most likely "cash for votes". His plummeting approval ratings won't help his inflated ego much either. Maybe he should change his attention to the college football playoff system.
I think O is smart enough to realize that equities in the rampaging-Fed era aren't an indicator any more than the Keno numbers at a casino breakfast in Vegas tell you about the quality of the food
Dr Munch - dont you mean peonies? They are lovely flowers and make fine gifts. My ex's Taiwanese mom couldnt pronounce this flower's name. Which added a humorous note.
"Finally, a week late. And no Virginia, there will be no Santa Claus this year. "
'Cause we've been bad.....
I do appreciate all the economic data CR keeps slinging our way, but until or unless somebody comes up with a reasonable strategy dragging the economy off the bottom -- much less halt any further decline -- it's all sports news. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing, or nothing we don't already know.
Wall Street isn't going to do it. Retail isn't going to do it. Housing isn't going to do it. These are all lagging indicators. The forward indicator is hard money in real pockets. We haven't had that for a long time -- just virtual money we could play make-believe with.
Ton Mile Trader Ton Mile Trader - home
"By matching the current S&P vs. the BDI 1.5 months prior you see the indices rise together in lock-step since April 1. However, shipping rates have collapsed over the last few weeks and the S&P is yet to follow. If this pattern remains true....today's stock market should correlate to shipping rates at the end of June. The BDI was at >4,000 on June 22 and has fallen to the ~2,500 since then. Will this recent softness in rates manifest itself in a market sell-off 1.5 months from now?"
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 1:58 pm replyIgnore userI think O is smart enough to realize that equities in the rampaging-Fed era aren't an indicator any more than the Keno numbers at a casino
Obama takes credit for equities increases publicly. He's not as smart as you think. BB does the same
Yes, oz-wee-pay, Obama told us to buy stocks in March, based on his proprietary "Profit to earnings" ratio. And he pointed to the indexes as a sign that things were better after the last jobs report. He knows that if the markets decline, it's TARP II for the insurers and big banks.
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 11:05 am
The forward indicator is hard money in real pockets. We haven't had that for a long time -- just virtual money we could play make-believe with.
All the money being created has gone to backfill the banks' deleveraging. I am more and more coming to believe the only way out is a US bank with max 6x leverage and explicit full faith and credit. The other banks can try to compete and to a large extent eventually they will but US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic. With US Bank we can bypass the insolvent black holes and get stimulus into the economy without the 120% surcharge of propping up the zombie banks.
Hmmmm, guess I missed that: " Yesterday, President Obama stated, "Profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it,”
That is fun when you think in terms of P/E being the inverse of yield, so is he saying that yields will be going down? If so, I agree!
"I am more and more coming to believe the only way out is a US bank with max 6x leverage and explicit full faith and credit. The other banks can try to compete and to a large extent eventually they will but US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic."
The "public option?"
It's an interesting idea, and one I'll look forward to hearing more about. Is it being discussed to any degree inside the Beltway that you know of?
"All the money being created has gone to backfill the banks' deleveraging. I am more and more coming to believe the only way out is a US bank with max 6x leverage and explicit full faith and credit. The other banks can try to compete and to a large extent eventually they will but US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic. With US Bank we can bypass the insolvent black holes and get stimulus into the economy without the 120% surcharge of propping up the zombie banks."
This is a way out of something, and into something else. What it leads to is a continuation of easy money (because any institution tied to the govt will become an infinite source of cheap and easy money). Is that the solution? Only if your problem is that you are facing drops in the prices of assets that you were relying on for future income. I am not sure that really is a long term solution for everyone.
Rob Dawg: I'm coming around to something like your US Bank idea.
We have WAY to many banks and credit unions, federal and state.
They really don't offer competition of benefit to depositors or those who borrow
They have unaccountable control over too much of the eCONomy.
They buy the government at all levels with their influence and money
They hide their true financial condition
The need for depositors is safety and fair return (surely not the profit levels they have gotten and the salaries/bonuses they extort.
The need for borrowers is fair treatment (dependent on business soundness/fundamentals) and lasting relationships based on earned trust.
Banks should be like regulated electric and gas utilities with earnings based on return on invested capital at reasonable rates of interest charged and interest earned.
They have proved they are not acting in the common/public interest - more than once, and over and over.
"...a Justice Department lawsuit against UBS AG seeking the names of Americans suspected of evading taxes through 52,000 secret Swiss accounts."
"Under the IRS voluntary disclosure program, taxpayers must pay taxes, interest and a 20 percent penalty on the highest balance of the preceding six years."
Have a large RV employer in county who had 1000 employes at max and was down to about 30 for the last six or eight months, last week 80 employes were called back. When I inquired how could this be was told most competion was now out of business.
So, shipping traffic is reflecting a jobless recovery, bank failures are increasing, foreclosures are increasing and earnings for the the S&P 500 are going (way) up, because of (highly) increased goodwill impairments that are at insane levels .......... Think about this..... in 1996, goodwill impairment charges for annual EPS for S&P 500, was 3 cents a share and where are we today, with Bush/Obama tinkering?? Huh, huh...where ...... in 2007, annual goodwill impairment was at $8.35 a share, so isn't that nice that the S&P 500 is being juiced by systemic accounting fraud and then having our presidents tell us that earnings are looking great and that, we should be buying into fraud ..... Shit, ..... go back to basics and think about the crap these crooks are selling:
Brief Summary of Accounting Theory
Bob Jensen at Trinity University
"Don't Fall for These Three Ploys
As a result, many market skeptics believe that FASB 142, which was intended to improve earnings transparency, may in some cases actually result in more egregious earnings manipulation than ever. Donn Vickrey, vice president at Camelback Research Alliance, a provider of analytical tools and consulting services for financial information, says he sees three ways that companies interested in managing their earnings could end-run shareholders using the new rule..............
think before you speculate!!!!! Read this kind of background!!
JimPortland /Dawg - on the retail banking side, I agree. For the vast majority of 'mericans, id think it could be looked at as a utility.
However, the reason it has so much power, is the non-retail. It's been viewed as the one comparative advantage we had (worked for the city of London too! ha)
So, we basically have a dying manufacturing base....health care was a big jobs creator, but how long can that go on, especially in the face of inevitable reform - even if this first pass at it doesnt work right, it has to happen in time.
Tech? We're slowly getting that advantage competed away. Only a matter of time before we are fairly ordinary on that front.
I just think that we looked at finance as the one thing we were really good at, that raked in tons of bucks.. Only problem is, we arent really that good at it, in terms of its benefit to our country overall in the long run. It is amazingly effective for enriching a small class of the country, but for the most part, it isnt any good for us. Yet, even after proving this, it retains its sparkly shiny effect on our political class and retains its power. Pretty sickening.
Frankly, if those folks want to separate out banking into components, so that f-ed up innovation by some doesnt effect general lending that runs the economy, hell, go innovate all you want.
The second quarter 2009 net loss was significant due to a $44.6 million non-cash charge to reflect the calculated impairment of its goodwill. The reported loss also reflected a provision for loan losses of $10.0 million, largely related to loans at the company's subsidiary banks in Florida and Kansas, compared to a provision of $1.8 million in the second quarter of 2008.
I can't take this anymore.... Can we have a financial enema icon or maybe a pig with gas blowing out from under its skirt?
Has anyone actually discussed how to deal with the collapse of a TBTF bank logistically? I know the reform package discusses who should do that, but has anyone actually talked about how the event would be handled?
I keep hearing lots of people suggesting that we break up the TBTF banks, but I kind of wonder what they actually think that means when they say it.
Here's my suggestion for BoA: Take Ken Lewis and his former board members, and set them down in a wild animal park in Africa. Follow them with a few cameras as they avoid hazards, or... fail. The rest of BoA carries on under new management. That sounds like a good start to the splitting process for me.
(As a BoA shareholder, I am mad at Ken Lewis and his former board for taking on Countrywide and Merrill out of poor judgment and loyalty to their own jobs over the shareholders' best interests.)
Banks should be limited to Federal Reserve Districts for the vast majority of their operations. The remainder can be handled sorta like MLB divisions. Oh, and Chinese firewalls. Easy, spin off entirely separate companies. What? "But Rob, we'll lose the synergies and supposed economies of scale!" Exactly, the things that got us into this mess.
Well, I am mainly concerned about how we get there from here. What happens to outstanding contracts, what kinds of services the banks would provide, etc.
to answer that, we'd actually have to define what a TBTF bank is (which no one has actually done), other than just the top 19 in total assets, because in a financial holding company, the whole is so much more than the sum of its parts. Hell, Bair didn't think that Wachovia was TBTF, even though it would have been in the top 19. the closest "definition" that I've seen so far is a deposit institution that meets the statutory systemic risk exception. of course, this wouldn't include financial institutions like Fannie, Freddie, AIG, or GE Capital.
I keep hearing lots of people suggesting that we break up the TBTF banks, but I kind of wonder what they actually think that means when they say it.
When I say it I mean:
Wipe out the shareholders
Haircut the bond holders
Fire the CEO and board. Preemptively sue them. Make sure that the amounts involved are well beyond the D&O insurance.
Put in place a new CEO who is compensated for breaking up the company into X pieces in 1 year. Balance sheet of any piece should be no greater than (current balance sheet)/Y.
Naturally, this is unworkable because the politics would never allow it.
As a BoA shareholder, I am mad at Ken Lewis and his former board for taking on Countrywide and Merrill out of poor judgment and loyalty to their own jobs over the shareholders' best interests.
Countrywide and Merill may be the only thing keeping BAC solvent; it's consumer finance divisions sure as hell aren't. Spoken as a $4.10 BAC shareholder.
we'd actually have to define what a TBTF bank is (which no one has actually done), other than just the top 19 in total assets, because in a financial holding company, the whole is so much more than the sum of its parts.
I actually think it is pretty straightforward: TBTF is defines either one of the following conditions
1) Too Big = Assets above certain threshold, say >$100 Bil or $250 Bil, pick a number (and yes, starting next year assets will include what is currently off balance sheet)
2) Too Connected = Notional amount of all uncollateralized derivatives above, say, $100 Bil or $250 Bil with no offset across counterparties: if I buy a $1 Bil swap from Bank X and sell the same $1 Bil swap to Bank Y, then my notional exposure is $2 Bil.
The BART union could probably share an 8 figure sum quite usefully, but it's probably better that Byz plays around with it. They don't add any value.
misc. recent quote:When I was in college I learned of a study that concluded that the BART subsidies could have purchased a VW Bug for all riders.
When you were in college you didn't learn much. Buy them all a VW bug, (don't bother including the cost of the roads) then stuff them all into a city. That would be brilliant.
"Countrywide and Merill may be the only thing keeping BAC solvent"
Depends on what the word "solvent" means. Slinging out new loans and recognizing fee revenue on them, and not setting up loan loss provisions comparable to the risks? That would add to BoA's 'solvency' all right, but I'm not sure it would add to its solvency.
The assets-based definition is silly and arbitrary
Why is it silly?
It is simple and captures the essence of the size.
If a bank that has $100 Bil in Treasuries gets itself into a trouble, you want an orderly liquidation, don't you?
Furthermore, the asset based definition is the same as a progressive tax on bank size - few banks will want to grow above this threshold as it will mean heavy regulation. What's wrong with that?
Sure, $100 Bil is a random number, but that surely cannot be a problem. Define it as $500 Bil, if you like. One way or the other all the obvious TBTF banks should be in there (C, JPM, BAC, WFC).
Bond Girl (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 12:28 pm
Rob Dawg,
What would happen to say, the interest rate swaps the bank is a counterparty on? Are they treated like a bankruptcy? Divided among the new pieces?
Even Tanta was okay with my idea on that. Put all the counterparties in a room and tell them to not come out until they traded down their paper at par with each other. The implication being that the game of hot potato was about to be stopped. IMO most of the swaps could be unwound with no damage other than to the transaction fees being generated. The interesting part of this reverse prisoners dilemma exercise is that no one is going to call the others liars lest they be likewise accused. This is a chance for them to get their stories straight before talking to the cops. Let's face it. Until the government foolishly stepped in and started taking on risk the game was not diminishing risk at all but it was generating monster transaction fees. Indeed without those fees the debt would be far less shaky.
I prefer a rule that simply increases required capital with asset size more quickly than linearly. Otherwise, every bank will grow to just under the TBTF barrier. It's a little better to ease the accelerator and start applying the brake as you go faster than to stop suddenly when you hit a certain speed.
I didn't even realize there aren't any uninsured assets any more, under the "temporary" (-Dec. 31, hahaha) FDIC no-interest transaction account full guaranty (Temp Liquidity Program).
NO $ LIMIT!! Now it's even easier to cash that 100 million bonus with the Treasury. Just "forfeit" a little interest.
1)Take all the deposits, give yourself a fat shit bonus, stick it in the bank.
2) Bust your bank, cash out.
3) (optional) You can "swap" with your pals if someone asks questions, but they won't.
few banks will want to grow above this threshold as it will mean heavy regulation. What's wrong with that?
Because it's not politically feasible. The government will not enact a punitive regulatory scheme unless every other country enacts the same type. The US will not allow JPM, BAC, etc. to play second fiddle to RBS or DB.
You want to break up the banks fast? Easy, just issue new guidance that in 18 months there will no longer be banks too big to fail but there will be a new standard under which the will be banks too small to prosecute. Banks would rightsize so fast the sign industry and letterhead printers would recover overnight.
Basel, there is an article in the current issue of The Economist on that topic, discussing compensation restrictions. France tried to implement them, no one else did. It is a total mess.
re: NYC
When I was there in June, they had a program offering vacant storefronts as temporary gallery spaces for artists. A win-win type of situation, except they ran out of artists who want free exhibition space
I already mentioned the two conditions for TBTF - total asset size and total notional of uncollateralized derivatives.
Now, the well-capitalized question is a whole different matter.
I would focus on simple metrics like the leverage ratio. For example, 4% on the first $100 Bil in assets, 6% on assets from $100 Bil to $500 Bil and 10% on everything above $500 Bil.
Furthermore, the TBTF status should be more than higher capital ratios. It should involve tighter regulation, including limitations on allowed products and services (e.g., no prop trading, limit on notional exposure to risky lending products with "risky" defined by the regulators, and so forth).
The government will not enact a punitive regulatory scheme unless every other country enacts the same type.
Correction - this government will not enact a punitive regulatory scheme
If we have the second leg down and we need to bail out Citi or BofA again, the government will enact many punitive regulatory schemes. Who cares if that will make our largest banks less competitive internationally?
1)Use the Post Office to extend Treasury Direct to savings, checking, and credit card functions, with lending under tight objective standards for credit worthiness, and regulated rates.
2)Shitcan FDIC insurance, Fed discount window and all other bank welfare programs. Let them operate in a true "free" market.
Any U.S. bank regulation will apply to all banks operating in the U.S. regardless of whether they are U.S. or foreign owned. CitiBank and BofA operations abroad will still use the banking regulation of the country where those operations are located. CitiBank will not become less competitive, however, they may move certain units from New York to London in order to maximize regulatory arbitrage.
I think one of my pet reforms would be to add regular stress tests to the capital issue. (Of course this would also assume regulators use something approximating realistic expectations...) Would be better than just relying on the banks to model the complex stuff and ratings.
Building on Rob's idea - one aspect of the TBTF regulatory status should be that personal criminal penalties for the top management of failed banks.
The government takes over the bank, the CEO, CFO, CRO go to jail - same to what happens to incompetent or irresponsible air line pilots or air traffic dispatchers.
Bond Girl - properly administered stress tests are actually quite complex, especially on loan portfolios. They are important, but simple things like the leverage ratio, could be quite effective, too.
I'm not sure it would make much of a difference if the banks did move overseas to try to game things as long as we could guarantee a strong domestic alternative. Talent would have to decide whether to move or to participate in the economy in another way (which might not be a bad thing after all).
CitiBank will not become less competitive, however, they may move certain units from New York to London in order to maximize regulatory arbitrage.
US regulations apply to world-wide operations of US-based banks.
By moving businesses from the US overseas, the impact on the reach of US regulators will be precisely zero.
"I think one of my pet reforms would be to add regular stress tests to the capital issue. (Of course this would also assume regulators use something approximating realistic expectations...) Would be better than just relying on the banks to model the complex stuff and ratings."
There are a lot of good ideas out there. But the cynics and, unfortunately perhaps, realists, say that all these measures will be circumvented.
Perhaps what we need are not just good ideas, but simple ideas that are hard to get around. We'd lose some efficiency, but gain transparency and enforcement potential.
I agree they are complex - which is part of the reason for my suggestion on Baseline that we not leave this task in the hands of the old guard that is still learning what the heck this stuff is.
back to the question you posed. you're correct, without an identifiable event, there is no recognition of debt income; otherwise, how would the debtor know that the debt is cancelled?
"Let's make the assumption that the part-time workers want to go to full-time (which they say they do). Typically employers will increase the hours of part-time employees before adding new workers. That will be a major drag on potential job growth. It is the equivalent of creating at least 4 million jobs, except that no new jobs are created. Plus, those who want jobs but are not looking will come back into the market if jobs are available. That adds another 2 million. Now we are seeing the need for 23 million new jobs in five years, to get back to the "Old Normal."
To get U-3 and U-6 down to 2007 levels, just under a net gain of 400,000 jobs have to be created per month for 60 months in a row. JPM says no new normal?
Yeah, I guess I am one of the cynics. I'm not even remotely cyncial about our ability to change things, but I am completely cynical as to whether we will.
I don't like the idea of an anointed bank acting as the govt bank. Whenever an institution plugs into the US govt, it sucks out money, usually lots of it. What starts responsibly ends, after years of lobbying and Congressional meddling, irresponsibly. Witness Fannie, Freddie, etc.
I think a lot of this crisis can be attributed to regulatory capital arbitrage
Symptoms.
The real issue is the long-term credit cycle.
You can control manifestations all you like, but they'll simply change form unless you limit the positive feedback effects of debt accumulation.
So what are we to make of the performance of the external auditors of all these sh!tpile banks? Surely questions were being asked, information, modeling, valuations, and credit quality data provided and opinions rendered.
Looks like there are some Arthur Andersens in this movie.
I don't doubt it. We have to figure out how to separate the incentives of the entities that evaluate firms (regulators, auditors, rating agencies...) from the firms themselves.
patientrenter (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 1:03 pm
I don't like the idea of an anointed bank acting as the govt bank. Whenever an institution plugs into the US govt, it sucks out money, usually lots of it. What starts responsibly ends, after years of lobbying and Congressional meddling, irresponsibly. Witness Fannie, Freddie, etc.
What if the minority party in Congress is who appoints the board?
Seriously, I think we can get a lot of mileage out of a US Bank. Sure there will be efforts to play politics but with enough transparency it will be difficult. I don't want it to replace the private banking system, only parallel it. Oh and as to capitalization; make interest earned triple tax free. I'd move at least 5 digits into a savings account earning 3% (prime minus) in that case.
Would the current system sucking the next $500 billion from Treasury to the FDIC change your mind? The last $700 billion? The other $trillion? At least with a public bank you can force more transparency, compensation limits, civil service testing, etc.
Similar to those arbitration firms that were owned by the credit card
companies in whole or in part. These people apparently never heard
of the idea of conflict of interest. In spite of the cash incentive, they
were nothing but fair in ajudicating borrower's claims--not!
Gosh it would have been such a tragedy if Britain, Japan, or Germany had had to cough up the trillions for the TARP and for loan guarantees. How could we every survive?
Think the publicly anointed judicial system sucks out money?
You're free to use the parallel private one. As Liz says, they may be a bit tilted. And when the private enforcer comes around, he may be a little unpolished, being the cheapest available supply.
Some people buy into Adam Smith's basic thesis about free (regulated) markets, others don't. You probably don't. I do. Nothing here will change those attitudes of a lifetime.
On the specific issue of whether the current mess was handled better by the private sector or public, the evidence is mixed. Both did terribly. Private investors loaned out money to terrible risks. Private individuals borrowed way too much money, and then went and spent way too much. Private bankers created securities that facilitated all this, and rating agencies papered over all the problems. Everyone acted out of greed, a desire for a free lunch.
What was the govt doing? Lowering interest rates, funnelling trillions of dollars into underpriced loans against overpriced assets through Fannie, Freddie, the FHA, the VA, etc., requiring that home loans be non-recourse, encouraging low down payments, increasing loan limits, making home loan interest deductible against income taxes, making most capital gains on home sales tax-free......
Neither has a good record. But if Fannie, Freddie, FHA etc withdrew tomorrow from the home market, I guarantee you that there would be very few foreclosures for purchases in 2010 and forward.
Tom Stone - yep, it's a regular read. Love the tie-in of one of the biggies with a certain huge computer company that looked terribly successful but still went tango uniform when clients started ditching it for miscellaneous bad behavior and it was later exposed as a ponzi scheme.
I'm not even remotely cyncial about our ability to change things, but I am completely cynical as to whether we will.
The problem has always been a matter of political will. But according to Ben Bernanke, being politically spineless is something that only affects the Japanese.
It cited "people involved in that process" who said CitiGroup told the U.S. Treasury Department that energy trader Andrew J. Hall, with a pay package of $98 million, and a second unidentified trader who was paid more than $30 million, were exempt from review.
But another source familiar with the matter said federal pay czar Kenneth Feinberg, the U.S. official responsible for setting pay for top executives at finance firms that received billions of dollars in government aid, will have flexibility in applying his authority on a case-by-case basis.
>
President : "We cannot afford to govern out of anger, or yield to the politics of the moment."
Yeah. But people here take it for granted that there needs to be an actual paradigm shift and many others think it is just a matter of getting the people in power to use the tools they already have available. They think they have a spine when they do not at all.
The invisible hand as beneficent allocator is as much a utopian [d]ream as a perfectly planned economy.
There is no such thing as free market private enterprise, except maybe in the Amazon jungle or Somalian coast. FDIC insurance is a government program. Public trading on a stock exchange is public, not private. If you want government sanction to raise public money, you must play by the rules. There are new rules and old rules.
You can hold the money of whoever wants to give it you, and promise whatever you want in return. Just don't put up a sign implying you are a regulated bank.
I am always puzzled by the air of superiority many US people have when comparing the reactions here to the latest recession to Japan's actions over the last 20 years.
In the US, it is considered politically brave to dump private losses on taxpayers or, through inflation, on savers. This leads to more "growth", as everybody is making money again. If I got to write off $1,000,000 every 10 years, I could earn $100,000 a year in between. I wouldn't necessarily be producing any real value, but all the economic measurements would look good. I am not sure which is the spineless path.
Can someone please remind me how much of Citi's equity the government has?
Would its equity share not qualify the government for a definitive say on compensation of any Citi employee?
But people here take it for granted that there needs to be an actual paradigm shift and many others think it is just a matter of getting the people in power to use the tools they already have available.
The current Administration disproves the validity of the latter; the best and brightest are leading us down the same road.
you're looking at it backwards - it is the bank BODs with political control of the govt, not the other way around. don't be distracted by the whipping-boy antics with C and BAC - Jamie and Lloyd are infinitely more powerful than O, Geithner, BB and Sheila combined.
"I am always puzzled by the air of superiority many US people have when comparing the reactions here to the latest recession to Japan's actions over the last 20 years."
I don't know. I actually think it would be easier to change the nature of regulation than it would be to dramatically change the structure of the financial industry.
I think that is largely true. But it doesn't apply at all when the currency is strictly political in nature and based on purely imaginary value - which is what we've had for 36 years.
Additional tools would certainly help. But political will is a more important element. Imagine if someone like Paul Volcker had been at the helm of the Fed during 2000-2009. Would he have excoriated and threatened excessive risk-takers? Maybe. Would he have raised rates earlier? Maybe. One person can make a difference. So I think it's not a good idea to lapse too quickly into cynicism, and lose potential opportunities. Unfortunately, the appointments of Bernanke, Geithner, and Summers don't give us much hope on that count.
But we definitely faced headwinds during the last 5-10 years. We had growing global savings, and a US culture that accepted and facilitated borrowing. I'm not sure if anyone swimming upstream could have made headway.
Building on Rob's idea - one aspect of the TBTF regulatory status should be that personal criminal penalties for the top management of failed banks.
See - the problem is actually very simple.
Actually, it's not; those people are protected because they're part of a corporation, and until the definition of corporations is redefined by the courts, it'll probably be difficult to implement this plan. Not that I don't think these guys shouldn't be prosecuted; I've been advocating RICO for awhile (I think I was the first, but maybe not; I'm a relative newcomer). It's just that I think it's not as easy as you imply.
I actually think it would be easier to change the nature of regulation than it would be to dramatically change the structure of the financial industry.
The problem most outside of the DC echo chamber have understanding the nature of regulation is that it itself is constrained by the body of administrative case law that's developed since the New Deal. For example, the most influential Supreme Court case in the past thirty years is Chevron v. NaturalResources Defense Council, which allows Bernanke to interpret 13(3) in ANY reasonable way, and yet almost no one's every heard of it.
patientrener,
As you might have guessed i'm no economist. However, didn't boj use expansionary monetary policy to combat persistent. deflation? They are big into quantitative easing and bank bailout.
I'm not sure if there is single country out there not trying to screw savers.
REBear, most criticisms of Japan from the US are that it did too little, too late. Folks who say this advocate larger QE, more bailouts (through closing banks and making good on most of their obligations), and more inflation, and all done much more quickly than in Japan.
Yeah, I was thinking of my earlier suggestion that we replace regulators with social entrepreneurs.
For all of the difficulties in handling regulation, it would be a heck of a lot easier than trying to reduce all the major banks to a certain asset size or what have you.
Actually, it's not; those people are protected because they're part of a corporation, and until the definition of corporations is redefined by the courts, it'll probably be difficult to implement this plan
Yes, it is. A doctor can be sued for negligence even if he or she is a part of a corporation or an LLP. If the regulation says officers of a failed bank can be personally sued by the fdederal government for negligence, then they can be sued for negligence. If Jamie Dimon does not like it, he can resign. If the JPM Board cannot find a suitable person willing to serve as its CEO, the regulators will close down the bank.
number of people present has dropped off since we started talking about serious stuff.
You're talking about fixing symptoms, not the true cause.
But that's probably because symptoms are visible and simpler in nature.
.
See it a lot in projects.
When I walk into a failed project, it's often blamed on a technical aspect.
But it's usually a political problem within the org that no one wants to address or even acknowledge.
In late July, Delaware Vice Chancellor Noble issued a decision in Ryan v. Lyondell denying the directors of Lyondell Chemical Company the protection of the company’s exculpatory charter provision for the alleged breach of their fiduciary duties in connection with the sale of Lyondell. Not surprisingly, V.C. Noble’s decision generated concern that directors may be subject to personal liability for breach of their fiduciary duties even where there is no allegation of self-interest.
I'm not sure if there is single country out there not trying to screw savers.
They have no choice.
They have balance production with consumption.
Too many assets in too few hands == more income for production & less for consumption.
Governments universally recognize that they have to shift income from producers to consumers to maintain equilibrium.
The corporate "veil" can be "pierced". Madoff was certainly a corporation. But few cases are so easy. I don't see Blankfein or Liddy coming out with, "The whole AIG CDS thing was just AAA insurance fraud"...
Tough cases against the politically connected rich and powerful are rarely pursued.
Plus savers represent an amorphous entity with diffused political interests, whreas banks have very specific interests and powerful levers of political influence.
Same problem as with sugar quotas or farm subsidies.
It is the same problem as torture and ticking bomb scenarios - simply outlaw torture, make criminal persecution a default option and the let them explain their actions in court. (I believe this is exactly what Israel has implemented).
Similarly, write the rule that if a TBTF bank requires government support to continue its operations, the government automatically sues its officers for gross negligence. Let them hire the best lawyers to explain in court that they were relying on AAA ratings when leveraging their CDO bets. Who knows, maybe the judge will be sympathetic.
That threat itself will be a good deterrent, plus we also talked about with size-based capital penalties and other remedies.
Capture and redistribution. Capture was built into our political system by the founders. That's what the U.S. Senate is about. Just because Senators are now popularly elected does not mean that they won't vote the interests of their states. There are a lot of farm states, thus we have farm price supports, sugar price manipulation, etc. What else would one expect from a nation whose founders were mostly farmers?
How does one fix that
Let the savers fail, meaning the banks, and everyone that lent to them (pension funds, the insurance companies, endowments) gets a haircut.
enough of this serious stuff. i've got to figure out how to file a patent and what to do with 10,000 quarters.
You don't want an over-reaction that destroys more than necessary, though.
The odds are good that we're going to get a more conformist society.
That's sure what I see already the past 4-5 years.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 5:08 pm
Yes, it is. A doctor can be sued for negligence even if he or she is a part of a corporation or an LLP. If the regulation says officers of a failed bank can be personally sued by the fdederal government for negligence, then they can be sued for negligence. If Jamie Dimon does not like it, he can resign. If the JPM Board cannot find a suitable person willing to serve as its CEO, the regulators will close down the bank.
Are you saying this can be done without "piercing the corporate veil"?
From the Wiki article you linked to: "In the United States, corporate veil piercing is the most litigated issue in corporate law".
To avoid complications, one simply needs to specify in the bank regulation that banks officers are personally liable to guard their banks against failure, then the veil piercing part will be very straightforward.
I suspect the "right-wing" part won't fly.
Unimaginative and narrow-minded are probably right. Or... what's "left".
You can monkey with the banking system and insurance industry and regulations but ultimately, if too many assets sit in too many hands, that income will shift from consumption to production and you'll get exactly what we have right now anyway. An imbalance.
Being a director could never give a doctor or lawyer immunity from neglegence. A famous veil-piercing case was a coterie of taxi "corporations" set up to limit tort liability to one shell, so that large judgments would be handled by one BK. The profits of all the different corp.s somehow wound up in the hands of a few owners.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 5:45 pm
From the Wiki article you linked to: "In the United States, corporate veil piercing is the most litigated issue in corporate law".
To avoid complications, one simply needs to specify in the bank regulation that banks officers are personally liable to guard their banks against failure, then the veil piercing part will be very straightforward.
Are you saying that simply "stating" in the body of a legislated law that the corporate veil no longer applies will invalidate centuries of common law?
Perhaps Liz or one of the proto-lawyers here will weigh in on that; it seems suspect to me.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 5:47 pm
Being a director could never give a doctor or lawyer immunity from neglegence. A famous veil-piercing case was a coterie of taxi "corporations" set up to limit tort liability to one shell, so that large judgments would be handled by one BK. The profits of all the different corp.s somehow wound up in the hands of a few owners.
Is that the case where it was determined that in order to maintain the veil, the corporation had to "act" like a corporation? Just curious; brb
Is there an "inquiring mind" on this thread who could plow through and make sense of the Federal Reserve Board's July report on its balance sheet commitments? It's 24 pages or so and curiously has data points from March through the 27th of June depending on what program is being explicated. I love the emphasis on the the necessity for asset-back securities it's buying by the billions to have earned AAA status from one of the rating agencies. Thank goodness, the Fed is being very careful with its funny money.
Here's an example - Bob Dylan walking out in the rain.
. Something Is Happening Here, But You Don’t Know What It Is… | The Agitator
.
How many people saw the "LA terrorist incident" yesterday?
Almost nobody.
I only know about it because I read the conspiracy boards last night.
I can't prove it but it was probably censored deliberately to avoid inciting people.
Yikes. "Negligence". "Medicine". No edit button. No typing quality control. Sorry.
Corporations must state their business purpose in their filing, even though it can be just "all legal endeavors". But to practice medicine requires a special license, for which special corporate structures may be possible. Limited liability only limits the personal civil ( liability of owners and directors to the assets of the corporation.
I am not a lawyer, so may well be wrong.
Here is my thinking - corporate directors already have personal liability (see the quote I posted above above the recent Lyondell case plus a whole bunch of classic cases like Revlon duties). Whether or not a given court case is protected by the corporate veil is debated all the time - it is not a sacred principle. If the regulation clearly states the position of the federal government when it will go after bank officers personally, I got to believe it will carry a lot of weight in the courtroom, as one won't be able to argue later that he thought he would protected by the corporate veil.
(Of course, the final verdict will be up to the judge, who might decide to apply the corporate veil)
"I love the emphasis on the the necessity for asset-back securities it's buying by the billions to have earned AAA status from one of the rating agencies. "
You know how everyone was up in arms about the rating agencies' incentives being misaligned with investors because their business model relied too much on payments from the people creating the securities they were rating? And now the govt needs lots of securities to retain their AAA rating, and the rating agencies need the govt to keep their NRSRO status. No bad incentives there, I'm sure.
MrM the "veil piercing" cases are common law (judicial) limitations on statutory limited liability. Legislation which reimposes personal liability effectively repeals limited liability for that class of corporations.
Of course, the right to civil suit and the civil court system itself is granted in the first instance by statute, subject to Constitutional minimums, like due process (No right to counsel or jury trial in civil case). That right could be limited by judicial interpretation, such as enforcing a waiver. But in general, a court would only increase potential personal liability of a director by limiting the protection in a statute.
market short interest has been sheared to the bone - almost none left. Where does the support come from when GS says the rally is over and no shorts left to cover to smooth out the ride ?
"D&O insurance notwithstanding, directors take their personal liability very seriously "
As they should. We have a court system that is mostly unpredictable, so relying on the corporate veil to protect oneself against an angry judge or a bloodthirsty jury is... unwise.
Insurance generally (always?) doesn't cover fraud.
I was reading Time Mag. There's an article about Las Vegas, mostly about commercial,
but with shenanigans in the single family home real estate market, this really
disgusted this hardened South Florida atty. I have a feeling the shennanigans
are over, as who has good enough credit anymore to buy a 2nd house and
then walk from the first one? And if short sellers are getting any under the
table money in South Fla, I don't know about it.
Even though "utopian ream" was a great mis-type, "The American Ream" warrants a glossary entry. Talk about encapsulating what's happening to the US taxpayer!
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 6:12 pm
MrM the "veil piercing" cases are common law (judicial) limitations on statutory limited liability. Legislation which reimposes personal liability effectively repeals limited liability for that class of corporations.
Can not be applied ex post facto, of course.
Are you saying that the veil is statutory and the piercing is common-law? Just curious
At what point do we realize that the only exports the ROW will buy from us are raw materials ? They will never allow their currencies to strengthen to the point that we are
competitive on a labor cost basis. Time for tariffs.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 6:28 pm
Proto-lawyer?
The corporate veil in Fla is really hard to pierce tho it can be done. You really have to try.
Liz,
I know you've been doing this awhile. I also know we have some law students as well, and I was referring to them as proto-lawyers. No offense intended to anyone-
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 6:41 pm
Even though "utopian ream" was a great mis-type, "The American Ream" warrants a glossary entry. Talk about encapsulating what's happening to the US taxpayer!
Ken made this an egalitarian board, so feel free to add it yourself-
Why is there a seasonal pattern for imports but not for exports?
That can't be true globally, by symmetry...
Finally, a week late. And no Virginia, there will be no Santa Claus this year.
Weak dollar increases exports, right? This is inflationary, right?
Nemo,
It has to do with what we export. For but one example; There's no season to scrap metal. The smelters run all the time.
Almonds, weapons and scrap cardboard... too bad our biggest export - debt - doesn't occupy much space in those containers at long beach
Lots of information (Anecdotal and real numbers) pointing to a double dip. Methinks Obama's favorite indicator (stock indexes) will drop (or be "driven down") and give him cover for another round of poines, most likely "cash for votes". His plummeting approval ratings won't help his inflated ego much either. Maybe he should change his attention to the college football playoff system.
I think O is smart enough to realize that equities in the rampaging-Fed era aren't an indicator any more than the Keno numbers at a casino breakfast in Vegas tell you about the quality of the food
Dr Munch - dont you mean peonies? They are lovely flowers and make fine gifts. My ex's Taiwanese mom couldnt pronounce this flower's name. Which added a humorous note.
This snapshot tells the same
story
Baltic Dry Index FFA Contract Curve
0814_baltic_b - Baltic Dry Index FFA Contract Curve - TheStreet.com Photo Gallery
OT: I just posted the mid-August update for trustee sales for select areas in So Cal.
Orange County:
Effective Demand: Orange County Trustee sales for Mid-August 2009
Los Angeles County:
Effective Demand: Trustee Sales for Los Angeles County Mid-August 2009
Ventura County:
Effective Demand: Ventura County Trustee sales for Mid-August 2009
San Diego County:
Effective Demand: San Diego Trustee Sales Mid-August 2009
No huge rush yet but the beginning of the month started off weak and has been picking up steam.. if the steam keeps up September could be good.
re: exports. uh oh!
"Finally, a week late. And no Virginia, there will be no Santa Claus this year. "
'Cause we've been bad.....
I do appreciate all the economic data CR keeps slinging our way, but until or unless somebody comes up with a reasonable strategy dragging the economy off the bottom -- much less halt any further decline -- it's all sports news. Full of sound and fury signifying nothing, or nothing we don't already know.
Wall Street isn't going to do it. Retail isn't going to do it. Housing isn't going to do it. These are all lagging indicators. The forward indicator is hard money in real pockets. We haven't had that for a long time -- just virtual money we could play make-believe with.
This data suggests exports in Q3 are off to a slow start.
Also note the performance of the dollar, which makes this even more worrisome.
Any word on why the delay?
Ton Mile Trader
Ton Mile Trader - home
"By matching the current S&P vs. the BDI 1.5 months prior you see the indices rise together in lock-step since April 1. However, shipping rates have collapsed over the last few weeks and the S&P is yet to follow. If this pattern remains true....today's stock market should correlate to shipping rates at the end of June. The BDI was at >4,000 on June 22 and has fallen to the ~2,500 since then. Will this recent softness in rates manifest itself in a market sell-off 1.5 months from now?"
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 1:58 pm replyIgnore userI think O is smart enough to realize that equities in the rampaging-Fed era aren't an indicator any more than the Keno numbers at a casino
Obama takes credit for equities increases publicly. He's not as smart as you think. BB does the same
Yes, oz-wee-pay, Obama told us to buy stocks in March, based on his proprietary "Profit to earnings" ratio. And he pointed to the indexes as a sign that things were better after the last jobs report. He knows that if the markets decline, it's TARP II for the insurers and big banks.
Bob Dobbs (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 11:05 am
The forward indicator is hard money in real pockets. We haven't had that for a long time -- just virtual money we could play make-believe with.
All the money being created has gone to backfill the banks' deleveraging. I am more and more coming to believe the only way out is a US bank with max 6x leverage and explicit full faith and credit. The other banks can try to compete and to a large extent eventually they will but US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic. With US Bank we can bypass the insolvent black holes and get stimulus into the economy without the 120% surcharge of propping up the zombie banks.
Despite the Recession Being Over, LA Area Ports: Export Traffic Declines in July
@Bond Girl,
That was a very interesting article on health care expenses in the New Yorker. Lots to think about. Thanks for posting it.
Hmmmm, guess I missed that: " Yesterday, President Obama stated, "Profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it,”
That is fun when you think in terms of P/E being the inverse of yield, so is he saying that yields will be going down? If so, I agree!
"I am more and more coming to believe the only way out is a US bank with max 6x leverage and explicit full faith and credit. The other banks can try to compete and to a large extent eventually they will but US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic."
The "public option?"
It's an interesting idea, and one I'll look forward to hearing more about. Is it being discussed to any degree inside the Beltway that you know of?
"All the money being created has gone to backfill the banks' deleveraging. I am more and more coming to believe the only way out is a US bank with max 6x leverage and explicit full faith and credit. The other banks can try to compete and to a large extent eventually they will but US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic. With US Bank we can bypass the insolvent black holes and get stimulus into the economy without the 120% surcharge of propping up the zombie banks."
This is a way out of something, and into something else. What it leads to is a continuation of easy money (because any institution tied to the govt will become an infinite source of cheap and easy money). Is that the solution? Only if your problem is that you are facing drops in the prices of assets that you were relying on for future income. I am not sure that really is a long term solution for everyone.
"This data suggests exports in Q3 are off to a slow start."
But what does it have to do with health care?
Rob Dawg: I'm coming around to something like your US Bank idea.
UBS Tax Settlement Delayed on U.S., Switzerland Talks (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
"...a Justice Department lawsuit against UBS AG seeking the names of Americans suspected of evading taxes through 52,000 secret Swiss accounts."
"Under the IRS voluntary disclosure program, taxpayers must pay taxes, interest and a 20 percent penalty on the highest balance of the preceding six years."
Have a large RV employer in county who had 1000 employes at max and was down to about 30 for the last six or eight months, last week 80 employes were called back. When I inquired how could this be was told most competion was now out of business.
So, shipping traffic is reflecting a jobless recovery, bank failures are increasing, foreclosures are increasing and earnings for the the S&P 500 are going (way) up, because of (highly) increased goodwill impairments that are at insane levels .......... Think about this..... in 1996, goodwill impairment charges for annual EPS for S&P 500, was 3 cents a share and where are we today, with Bush/Obama tinkering?? Huh, huh...where ...... in 2007, annual goodwill impairment was at $8.35 a share, so isn't that nice that the S&P 500 is being juiced by systemic accounting fraud and then having our presidents tell us that earnings are looking great and that, we should be buying into fraud ..... Shit, ..... go back to basics and think about the crap these crooks are selling:
Bob Jensen at Trinity University
"Don't Fall for These Three Ploys
As a result, many market skeptics believe that FASB 142, which was intended to improve earnings transparency, may in some cases actually result in more egregious earnings manipulation than ever. Donn Vickrey, vice president at Camelback Research Alliance, a provider of analytical tools and consulting services for financial information, says he sees three ways that companies interested in managing their earnings could end-run shareholders using the new rule..............
think before you speculate!!!!! Read this kind of background!!
Bob Jensen's Accounting Theory Quick Summary
JimPortland /Dawg - on the retail banking side, I agree. For the vast majority of 'mericans, id think it could be looked at as a utility.
However, the reason it has so much power, is the non-retail. It's been viewed as the one comparative advantage we had (worked for the city of London too! ha)
So, we basically have a dying manufacturing base....health care was a big jobs creator, but how long can that go on, especially in the face of inevitable reform - even if this first pass at it doesnt work right, it has to happen in time.
Tech? We're slowly getting that advantage competed away. Only a matter of time before we are fairly ordinary on that front.
I just think that we looked at finance as the one thing we were really good at, that raked in tons of bucks.. Only problem is, we arent really that good at it, in terms of its benefit to our country overall in the long run. It is amazingly effective for enriching a small class of the country, but for the most part, it isnt any good for us. Yet, even after proving this, it retains its sparkly shiny effect on our political class and retains its power. Pretty sickening.
Frankly, if those folks want to separate out banking into components, so that f-ed up innovation by some doesnt effect general lending that runs the economy, hell, go innovate all you want.
Mercantile Bancorp Announces Second Quarter 2009 Results
Mercantile Bancorp Announces Second Quarter 2009 Results | SYS-CON MEDIA
The second quarter 2009 net loss was significant due to a $44.6 million non-cash charge to reflect the calculated impairment of its goodwill. The reported loss also reflected a provision for loan losses of $10.0 million, largely related to loans at the company's subsidiary banks in Florida and Kansas, compared to a provision of $1.8 million in the second quarter of 2008.
I can't take this anymore....
Can we have a financial enema icon or maybe a pig with gas blowing out from under its skirt?
- We have WAY to many banks and credit unions, federal and state.
We have too many TBTF banks as well, when we should have none.
James Kwak posted that article on Baseline a while ago. Yearning to Learn talking about the business aspect of health care made me think of it.
Has anyone actually discussed how to deal with the collapse of a TBTF bank logistically? I know the reform package discusses who should do that, but has anyone actually talked about how the event would be handled?
I keep hearing lots of people suggesting that we break up the TBTF banks, but I kind of wonder what they actually think that means when they say it.
US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic
Isn't that the Federal Reserve's job?
What would splitting up the TBTF banks look like?
Here's my suggestion for BoA: Take Ken Lewis and his former board members, and set them down in a wild animal park in Africa. Follow them with a few cameras as they avoid hazards, or... fail. The rest of BoA carries on under new management. That sounds like a good start to the splitting process for me.
(As a BoA shareholder, I am mad at Ken Lewis and his former board for taking on Countrywide and Merrill out of poor judgment and loyalty to their own jobs over the shareholders' best interests.)
/ end snark
Banks should be limited to Federal Reserve Districts for the vast majority of their operations. The remainder can be handled sorta like MLB divisions. Oh, and Chinese firewalls. Easy, spin off entirely separate companies. What? "But Rob, we'll lose the synergies and supposed economies of scale!" Exactly, the things that got us into this mess.
Well, I am mainly concerned about how we get there from here. What happens to outstanding contracts, what kinds of services the banks would provide, etc.
El Cliffo (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 12:15 pm
US Bank will be the anchor to keep the insanity from becoming systemic
Isn't that the Federal Reserve's job?
I see the seeds I planted are bearing
Clearly we cannot rely on the private Federal Reserve to look after the public weal so we need a public equivalent; US Bank.
Rob Dawg: I'm coming around to something like your US Bank idea.
Most loans won't fix the problem.
Although I do like the wild animal park idea
to answer that, we'd actually have to define what a TBTF bank is (which no one has actually done), other than just the top 19 in total assets, because in a financial holding company, the whole is so much more than the sum of its parts. Hell, Bair didn't think that Wachovia was TBTF, even though it would have been in the top 19. the closest "definition" that I've seen so far is a deposit institution that meets the statutory systemic risk exception. of course, this wouldn't include financial institutions like Fannie, Freddie, AIG, or GE Capital.
perhaps, we should just ask Goldman...
I keep hearing lots of people suggesting that we break up the TBTF banks, but I kind of wonder what they actually think that means when they say it.
When I say it I mean:
Naturally, this is unworkable because the politics would never allow it.
jp,
+1
don't forget:
5. Clawbacks and industry bans.
As a BoA shareholder, I am mad at Ken Lewis and his former board for taking on Countrywide and Merrill out of poor judgment and loyalty to their own jobs over the shareholders' best interests.
Countrywide and Merill may be the only thing keeping BAC solvent; it's consumer finance divisions sure as hell aren't. Spoken as a $4.10 BAC shareholder.
Baltic Dry Index FFA Contract Curve
I'm assuming this is a futures curve?
It's implying a further downturn of 22% in the next 18 months?
Nice touch.
Yeah. How would we define it? The assets-based definition is silly and arbitrary to be sure.
The largest U.S. banks have already been given an implicit federal guarantee.
we'd actually have to define what a TBTF bank is (which no one has actually done), other than just the top 19 in total assets, because in a financial holding company, the whole is so much more than the sum of its parts.
I actually think it is pretty straightforward: TBTF is defines either one of the following conditions
1) Too Big = Assets above certain threshold, say >$100 Bil or $250 Bil, pick a number (and yes, starting next year assets will include what is currently off balance sheet)
2) Too Connected = Notional amount of all uncollateralized derivatives above, say, $100 Bil or $250 Bil with no offset across counterparties: if I buy a $1 Bil swap from Bank X and sell the same $1 Bil swap to Bank Y, then my notional exposure is $2 Bil.
Done.
The BART union could probably share an 8 figure sum quite usefully, but it's probably better that Byz plays around with it. They don't add any value.
misc. recent quote:When I was in college I learned of a study that concluded that the BART subsidies could have purchased a VW Bug for all riders.
When you were in college you didn't learn much. Buy them all a VW bug, (don't bother including the cost of the roads) then stuff them all into a city. That would be brilliant.
"Countrywide and Merill may be the only thing keeping BAC solvent"
Depends on what the word "solvent" means. Slinging out new loans and recognizing fee revenue on them, and not setting up loan loss provisions comparable to the risks? That would add to BoA's 'solvency' all right, but I'm not sure it would add to its solvency.
Rob Dawg,
What would happen to say, the interest rate swaps the bank is a counterparty on? Are they treated like a bankruptcy? Divided among the new pieces?
MrM,
So would you have a different criterion for exposure for determining whether a bank is well-capitalized and whether it is TBTF?
The assets-based definition is silly and arbitrary
Why is it silly?
It is simple and captures the essence of the size.
If a bank that has $100 Bil in Treasuries gets itself into a trouble, you want an orderly liquidation, don't you?
Furthermore, the asset based definition is the same as a progressive tax on bank size - few banks will want to grow above this threshold as it will mean heavy regulation. What's wrong with that?
Sure, $100 Bil is a random number, but that surely cannot be a problem. Define it as $500 Bil, if you like. One way or the other all the obvious TBTF banks should be in there (C, JPM, BAC, WFC).
Bond Girl (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 12:28 pm
Rob Dawg,
What would happen to say, the interest rate swaps the bank is a counterparty on? Are they treated like a bankruptcy? Divided among the new pieces?
Even Tanta was okay with my idea on that. Put all the counterparties in a room and tell them to not come out until they traded down their paper at par with each other. The implication being that the game of hot potato was about to be stopped. IMO most of the swaps could be unwound with no damage other than to the transaction fees being generated. The interesting part of this reverse prisoners dilemma exercise is that no one is going to call the others liars lest they be likewise accused. This is a chance for them to get their stories straight before talking to the cops. Let's face it. Until the government foolishly stepped in and started taking on risk the game was not diminishing risk at all but it was generating monster transaction fees. Indeed without those fees the debt would be far less shaky.
I like your suggestion about measuring connectedness a lot better because that really gets at the idea of posing systemic risk.
I prefer a rule that simply increases required capital with asset size more quickly than linearly. Otherwise, every bank will grow to just under the TBTF barrier. It's a little better to ease the accelerator and start applying the brake as you go faster than to stop suddenly when you hit a certain speed.
OT:
The 0.3% annualized growth seen in May GDP is revised to zero (wsj.com)
I didn't even realize there aren't any uninsured assets any more, under the "temporary" (-Dec. 31, hahaha) FDIC no-interest transaction account full guaranty (Temp Liquidity Program).
NO $ LIMIT!! Now it's even easier to cash that 100 million bonus with the Treasury. Just "forfeit" a little interest.
1)Take all the deposits, give yourself a fat shit bonus, stick it in the bank.
2) Bust your bank, cash out.
3) (optional) You can "swap" with your pals if someone asks questions, but they won't.
FDIC: Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program Archives
FDIC Fucking Disgusting Institutionalized Cheating
few banks will want to grow above this threshold as it will mean heavy regulation. What's wrong with that?
Because it's not politically feasible. The government will not enact a punitive regulatory scheme unless every other country enacts the same type. The US will not allow JPM, BAC, etc. to play second fiddle to RBS or DB.
A lot of them have contracts that are not with each other.
You want to break up the banks fast? Easy, just issue new guidance that in 18 months there will no longer be banks too big to fail but there will be a new standard under which the will be banks too small to prosecute. Banks would rightsize so fast the sign industry and letterhead printers would recover overnight.
Basel, there is an article in the current issue of The Economist on that topic, discussing compensation restrictions. France tried to implement them, no one else did. It is a total mess.
LOL Rob Dawg.
re: NYC
When I was there in June, they had a program offering vacant storefronts as temporary gallery spaces for artists. A win-win type of situation, except they ran out of artists who want free exhibition space
Bond Girl
I already mentioned the two conditions for TBTF - total asset size and total notional of uncollateralized derivatives.
Now, the well-capitalized question is a whole different matter.
I would focus on simple metrics like the leverage ratio. For example, 4% on the first $100 Bil in assets, 6% on assets from $100 Bil to $500 Bil and 10% on everything above $500 Bil.
Furthermore, the TBTF status should be more than higher capital ratios. It should involve tighter regulation, including limitations on allowed products and services (e.g., no prop trading, limit on notional exposure to risky lending products with "risky" defined by the regulators, and so forth).
sk2322 - thanks for this. Someone tell Krugie.
C
The government will not enact a punitive regulatory scheme unless every other country enacts the same type.
Correction - this government will not enact a punitive regulatory scheme
If we have the second leg down and we need to bail out Citi or BofA again, the government will enact many punitive regulatory schemes. Who cares if that will make our largest banks less competitive internationally?
"play second fiddle"
why should the population of the US suffer to allow a few outsized egos to flourish at the head of a few huge US banks/institutions?
Economist article
Premium content | Economist.com
Excellent dawg.
1)Use the Post Office to extend Treasury Direct to savings, checking, and credit card functions, with lending under tight objective standards for credit worthiness, and regulated rates.
2)Shitcan FDIC insurance, Fed discount window and all other bank welfare programs. Let them operate in a true "free" market.
3)Laugh all the way to the US Bank.
Any U.S. bank regulation will apply to all banks operating in the U.S. regardless of whether they are U.S. or foreign owned. CitiBank and BofA operations abroad will still use the banking regulation of the country where those operations are located. CitiBank will not become less competitive, however, they may move certain units from New York to London in order to maximize regulatory arbitrage.
There were a reasonable number of people out shopping as we
were stimulatin' the economy.
Couple of potential storms now, one with the momster's name, except
she uses 2 ns. Need that dark cloud for more than one purpose.
I think one of my pet reforms would be to add regular stress tests to the capital issue. (Of course this would also assume regulators use something approximating realistic expectations...) Would be better than just relying on the banks to model the complex stuff and ratings.
Building on Rob's idea - one aspect of the TBTF regulatory status should be that personal criminal penalties for the top management of failed banks.
The government takes over the bank, the CEO, CFO, CRO go to jail - same to what happens to incompetent or irresponsible air line pilots or air traffic dispatchers.
See - the problem is actually very simple.
"however, [Citi] may move certain units from New York to London in order to maximize regulatory arbitrage. "
Thanks, now I'm more optimistic for the US. We can dream...
Bond Girl - properly administered stress tests are actually quite complex, especially on loan portfolios. They are important, but simple things like the leverage ratio, could be quite effective, too.
I'm not sure it would make much of a difference if the banks did move overseas to try to game things as long as we could guarantee a strong domestic alternative. Talent would have to decide whether to move or to participate in the economy in another way (which might not be a bad thing after all).
The government takes over the bank, the CEO, CFO, CRO go to jail
If we're going to be monkeying around ex post facto, we might as well line um up on the side of the road and have them dig graves.
I think a lot of this crisis can be attributed to regulatory capital arbitrage and the mentality that some of the innovations actually reduced risk.
CitiBank will not become less competitive, however, they may move certain units from New York to London in order to maximize regulatory arbitrage.
US regulations apply to world-wide operations of US-based banks.
By moving businesses from the US overseas, the impact on the reach of US regulators will be precisely zero.
"I think one of my pet reforms would be to add regular stress tests to the capital issue. (Of course this would also assume regulators use something approximating realistic expectations...) Would be better than just relying on the banks to model the complex stuff and ratings."
There are a lot of good ideas out there. But the cynics and, unfortunately perhaps, realists, say that all these measures will be circumvented.
Perhaps what we need are not just good ideas, but simple ideas that are hard to get around. We'd lose some efficiency, but gain transparency and enforcement potential.
You mean add tangible value? They have "talent" for ponzi, no more.
Gosh, if you are big enough to have a CRO then we already know you're guilty.
Have you considered adding the value of the dollar to this graph (e.g. relative to he euro)?
I agree they are complex - which is part of the reason for my suggestion on Baseline that we not leave this task in the hands of the old guard that is still learning what the heck this stuff is.
Liz:
back to the question you posed. you're correct, without an identifiable event, there is no recognition of debt income; otherwise, how would the debtor know that the debt is cancelled?
I can see the headline now...
Goldman announces it will become the ONLY US Investment Bank
Stock soars!
Become? J/K
Mauldin:
"Let's make the assumption that the part-time workers want to go to full-time (which they say they do). Typically employers will increase the hours of part-time employees before adding new workers. That will be a major drag on potential job growth. It is the equivalent of creating at least 4 million jobs, except that no new jobs are created. Plus, those who want jobs but are not looking will come back into the market if jobs are available. That adds another 2 million. Now we are seeing the need for 23 million new jobs in five years, to get back to the "Old Normal."
To get U-3 and U-6 down to 2007 levels, just under a net gain of 400,000 jobs have to be created per month for 60 months in a row. JPM says no new normal?
Thanks Basel.
The innovations did what they were designed to do: spread risk--
from investor to taxpayer, all over the bathroom walls.
Never was a normal.
patientrenter,
Yeah, I guess I am one of the cynics. I'm not even remotely cyncial about our ability to change things, but I am completely cynical as to whether we will.
I don't like the idea of an anointed bank acting as the govt bank. Whenever an institution plugs into the US govt, it sucks out money, usually lots of it. What starts responsibly ends, after years of lobbying and Congressional meddling, irresponsibly. Witness Fannie, Freddie, etc.
I think a lot of this crisis can be attributed to regulatory capital arbitrage
Symptoms.
The real issue is the long-term credit cycle.
You can control manifestations all you like, but they'll simply change form unless you limit the positive feedback effects of debt accumulation.
So what are we to make of the performance of the external auditors of all these sh!tpile banks? Surely questions were being asked, information, modeling, valuations, and credit quality data provided and opinions rendered.
Looks like there are some Arthur Andersens in this movie.
C
Auditors are nearly useless. Well, they prevent the worst 90% of fraud and incompetence. The remaining 10% is enough to sink us all many times over.
I don't doubt it. We have to figure out how to separate the incentives of the entities that evaluate firms (regulators, auditors, rating agencies...) from the firms themselves.
patientrenter (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 1:03 pm
I don't like the idea of an anointed bank acting as the govt bank. Whenever an institution plugs into the US govt, it sucks out money, usually lots of it. What starts responsibly ends, after years of lobbying and Congressional meddling, irresponsibly. Witness Fannie, Freddie, etc.
What if the minority party in Congress is who appoints the board?
Seriously, I think we can get a lot of mileage out of a US Bank. Sure there will be efforts to play politics but with enough transparency it will be difficult. I don't want it to replace the private banking system, only parallel it. Oh and as to capitalization; make interest earned triple tax free. I'd move at least 5 digits into a savings account earning 3% (prime minus) in that case.
Patientrenter:
Would the current system sucking the next $500 billion from Treasury to the FDIC change your mind? The last $700 billion? The other $trillion? At least with a public bank you can force more transparency, compensation limits, civil service testing, etc.
Similar to those arbitration firms that were owned by the credit card
companies in whole or in part. These people apparently never heard
of the idea of conflict of interest. In spite of the cash incentive, they
were nothing but fair in ajudicating borrower's claims--not!
What if the minority party in Congress is who appoints the board?
That reminds me of the old trick with kids fighting over a cookie or whatever. One gets to divide the cookie, the other gets to pick. LOL
play second fiddle
Gosh it would have been such a tragedy if Britain, Japan, or Germany had had to cough up the trillions for the TARP and for loan guarantees. How could we every survive?
CounterPointer,check out Francine McKenna's blog "In Re: The Auditors".Auditors are nearly as ethical as Realtors,but smarter.
lol, yogi, I love your bloodthirsty attitude. Kill the FDIC, institute a public bank, and see where the savings go.
Think the publicly anointed judicial system sucks out money?
You're free to use the parallel private one. As Liz says, they may be a bit tilted. And when the private enforcer comes around, he may be a little unpolished, being the cheapest available supply.
Kill them tomorrow, before they grab that $500 billion.
yogi:
Some people buy into Adam Smith's basic thesis about free (regulated) markets, others don't. You probably don't. I do. Nothing here will change those attitudes of a lifetime.
On the specific issue of whether the current mess was handled better by the private sector or public, the evidence is mixed. Both did terribly. Private investors loaned out money to terrible risks. Private individuals borrowed way too much money, and then went and spent way too much. Private bankers created securities that facilitated all this, and rating agencies papered over all the problems. Everyone acted out of greed, a desire for a free lunch.
What was the govt doing? Lowering interest rates, funnelling trillions of dollars into underpriced loans against overpriced assets through Fannie, Freddie, the FHA, the VA, etc., requiring that home loans be non-recourse, encouraging low down payments, increasing loan limits, making home loan interest deductible against income taxes, making most capital gains on home sales tax-free......
Neither has a good record. But if Fannie, Freddie, FHA etc withdrew tomorrow from the home market, I guarantee you that there would be very few foreclosures for purchases in 2010 and forward.
Tom Stone - yep, it's a regular read. Love the tie-in of one of the biggies with a certain huge computer company that looked terribly successful but still went tango uniform when clients started ditching it for miscellaneous bad behavior and it was later exposed as a ponzi scheme.
C
I'm not even remotely cyncial about our ability to change things, but I am completely cynical as to whether we will.
The problem has always been a matter of political will. But according to Ben Bernanke, being politically spineless is something that only affects the Japanese.
Fantastic monthly U-3 heat map:
Why Did the Unemployment Rate Drop? - Real Time Economics - WSJ
.
Just started on the article but the map was too cool not to pass along immediately
But according to Ben Bernanke, being politically spineless is something that only affects the Japanese.
American Central Bankers have strong enough spine to stand up against the evidence and do what is right politically.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
CitiGroup says two exempt from pay review: report
It cited "people involved in that process" who said CitiGroup told the U.S. Treasury Department that energy trader Andrew J. Hall, with a pay package of $98 million, and a second unidentified trader who was paid more than $30 million, were exempt from review.
But another source familiar with the matter said federal pay czar Kenneth Feinberg, the U.S. official responsible for setting pay for top executives at finance firms that received billions of dollars in government aid, will have flexibility in applying his authority on a case-by-case basis.
OT:
M2 has dropped 4 months this year.
MZM has dropped 2 months this year.
Yeah. But people here take it for granted that there needs to be an actual paradigm shift and many others think it is just a matter of getting the people in power to use the tools they already have available. They think they have a spine when they do not at all.
The invisible hand as beneficent allocator is as much a utopian [d]ream as a perfectly planned economy.
There is no such thing as free market private enterprise, except maybe in the Amazon jungle or Somalian coast. FDIC insurance is a government program. Public trading on a stock exchange is public, not private. If you want government sanction to raise public money, you must play by the rules. There are new rules and old rules.
You can hold the money of whoever wants to give it you, and promise whatever you want in return. Just don't put up a sign implying you are a regulated bank.
I am always puzzled by the air of superiority many US people have when comparing the reactions here to the latest recession to Japan's actions over the last 20 years.
In the US, it is considered politically brave to dump private losses on taxpayers or, through inflation, on savers. This leads to more "growth", as everybody is making money again. If I got to write off $1,000,000 every 10 years, I could earn $100,000 a year in between. I wouldn't necessarily be producing any real value, but all the economic measurements would look good. I am not sure which is the spineless path.
When I say get rid of the FDIC, I'm saying get rid of a government program, in favor of a more efficient one, cutting out the middleman, that's all.
The invisible hand as beneficent allocator is as much a utopian ream as a perfectly planned economy.
Best mistype of the day. LOL!
Can someone please remind me how much of Citi's equity the government has?
Would its equity share not qualify the government for a definitive say on compensation of any Citi employee?
I think Yogi did it on purpose.
LMAO! Still chasing the American Ream...
Priceless.
C
No, I lose a lot of key strokes to hooc.
(But I'm keeping it in the edit).
I lose a lot of key strokes to hooc
I'm not guessing at the missing letters here.
patientrenter,
Which country are you comparing with?
But people here take it for granted that there needs to be an actual paradigm shift and many others think it is just a matter of getting the people in power to use the tools they already have available.
The current Administration disproves the validity of the latter; the best and brightest are leading us down the same road.
What paradigm shift do you envision?
you're looking at it backwards - it is the bank BODs with political control of the govt, not the other way around. don't be distracted by the whipping-boy antics with C and BAC - Jamie and Lloyd are infinitely more powerful than O, Geithner, BB and Sheila combined.
"I am always puzzled by the air of superiority many US people have when comparing the reactions here to the latest recession to Japan's actions over the last 20 years."
"Which country are you comparing with?"
Japan.
I don't know. I actually think it would be easier to change the nature of regulation than it would be to dramatically change the structure of the financial industry.
In Econ they taught us that the invisible hand does a miraculous job of allocating resources in the long run.
It needs just a little tweaking, like for the aggregate level of investment in the "macro" economy (a mere blip).
Or the establishment of a system for value producers to safely store their surplus in currency (another blip).
Or providing public safety. (Hence the tort system and regulation of food, medecine, air quality, fire prevention...)
The invisible hand will tell you exactly how many widgets are needed per capita, though.
uh oh - even BG is drifting towards the audit-and-shutdown crowd...
I think that is largely true. But it doesn't apply at all when the currency is strictly political in nature and based on purely imaginary value - which is what we've had for 36 years.
I think it would be easier to introduce something akin to a public bank than to break up existing banks.
Like a Federal Reserve super-syndicate? Interesting idea.
Like what Rob Dawg et al were suggesting...
...kers? Hardly. Actually, losing key strokes is a squash pun, but too esoteric. We can't even get in the Olympics.
Fully agreed.
All problems can be fixed in 24 hours.
Are you teasing me?
Additional tools would certainly help. But political will is a more important element. Imagine if someone like Paul Volcker had been at the helm of the Fed during 2000-2009. Would he have excoriated and threatened excessive risk-takers? Maybe. Would he have raised rates earlier? Maybe. One person can make a difference. So I think it's not a good idea to lapse too quickly into cynicism, and lose potential opportunities. Unfortunately, the appointments of Bernanke, Geithner, and Summers don't give us much hope on that count.
But we definitely faced headwinds during the last 5-10 years. We had growing global savings, and a US culture that accepted and facilitated borrowing. I'm not sure if anyone swimming upstream could have made headway.
It seems like the number of people present has dropped off since we started talking about serious stuff.
MrM (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 3:53 pm
Building on Rob's idea - one aspect of the TBTF regulatory status should be that personal criminal penalties for the top management of failed banks.
See - the problem is actually very simple.
Actually, it's not; those people are protected because they're part of a corporation, and until the definition of corporations is redefined by the courts, it'll probably be difficult to implement this plan. Not that I don't think these guys shouldn't be prosecuted; I've been advocating RICO for awhile (I think I was the first, but maybe not; I'm a relative newcomer). It's just that I think it's not as easy as you imply.
One person at the Fed can make a difference. Elsewhere, not so much.
It might be audit, shutdown, disgorge (the Chinese food). Start new Ponzi at supersyndicate. Hope they buy (lend).
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 4:34 pm
The invisible hand as beneficent allocator is as much a utopian ream as a perfectly planned economy.
Best mistype of the day. LOL!
Perhaps kcoop will institute a "Hall of Fame" for classics like this
"In Econ they taught us that the invisible hand does a miraculous job of allocating resources in the long run."
The invisible hand does more than allocate resources.
I Heard a Little Tapping:
pavel.libsyn.com
Or, like William Poole, "one person" can come to their senses, leave, and take a shower.
The invisible hand will tell you exactly how many widgets are needed per capita, though.
Cheap, quickly produced consumer goods, you mean.
Anything's possible with increased doses of hopium during the pain. Innit?
YouTube - The Verve - The Drugs Don't Work
C
I actually think it would be easier to change the nature of regulation than it would be to dramatically change the structure of the financial industry.
The problem most outside of the DC echo chamber have understanding the nature of regulation is that it itself is constrained by the body of administrative case law that's developed since the New Deal. For example, the most influential Supreme Court case in the past thirty years is Chevron v. NaturalResources Defense Council, which allows Bernanke to interpret 13(3) in ANY reasonable way, and yet almost no one's every heard of it.
patientrener,
As you might have guessed i'm no economist. However, didn't boj use expansionary monetary policy to combat persistent. deflation? They are big into quantitative easing and bank bailout.
I'm not sure if there is single country out there not trying to screw savers.
REBear, most criticisms of Japan from the US are that it did too little, too late. Folks who say this advocate larger QE, more bailouts (through closing banks and making good on most of their obligations), and more inflation, and all done much more quickly than in Japan.
Yeah, I was thinking of my earlier suggestion that we replace regulators with social entrepreneurs.
For all of the difficulties in handling regulation, it would be a heck of a lot easier than trying to reduce all the major banks to a certain asset size or what have you.
Actually, it's not; those people are protected because they're part of a corporation, and until the definition of corporations is redefined by the courts, it'll probably be difficult to implement this plan
Yes, it is. A doctor can be sued for negligence even if he or she is a part of a corporation or an LLP. If the regulation says officers of a failed bank can be personally sued by the fdederal government for negligence, then they can be sued for negligence. If Jamie Dimon does not like it, he can resign. If the JPM Board cannot find a suitable person willing to serve as its CEO, the regulators will close down the bank.
National Hurricane Center
we have ana and bill
A widget is any good traded in perfect equilibrium with supply and demand over time, with no external imbalance.
Since none has ever existed in nature, the economist had to postulate a fictitious one.
I was thinking the same thing w/r/t fraud.
number of people present has dropped off since we started talking about serious stuff.
You're talking about fixing symptoms, not the true cause.
But that's probably because symptoms are visible and simpler in nature.
.
See it a lot in projects.
When I walk into a failed project, it's often blamed on a technical aspect.
But it's usually a political problem within the org that no one wants to address or even acknowledge.
ADDED. I am not a lawyer, but FWIW here is a bit on personal liabilitiy of directors of a corporation
Delaware Courts Reaffirm High Bar for Personal Liability of Disinterested Directors
In late July, Delaware Vice Chancellor Noble issued a decision in Ryan v. Lyondell denying the directors of Lyondell Chemical Company the protection of the company’s exculpatory charter provision for the alleged breach of their fiduciary duties in connection with the sale of Lyondell. Not surprisingly, V.C. Noble’s decision generated concern that directors may be subject to personal liability for breach of their fiduciary duties even where there is no allegation of self-interest.
I'm not sure if there is single country out there not trying to screw savers.
They have no choice.
They have balance production with consumption.
Too many assets in too few hands == more income for production & less for consumption.
Governments universally recognize that they have to shift income from producers to consumers to maintain equilibrium.
How does one fix that, Broward?
The corporate "veil" can be "pierced". Madoff was certainly a corporation. But few cases are so easy. I don't see Blankfein or Liddy coming out with, "The whole AIG CDS thing was just AAA insurance fraud"...
Tough cases against the politically connected rich and powerful are rarely pursued.
Elizabeth Warren speech from early 2007: The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class
Food for Doomers. It's pretty long (57 minutes), but just in case the Hopium is working for you today, this will cheer you right down.
Plus savers represent an amorphous entity with diffused political interests, whreas banks have very specific interests and powerful levers of political influence.
Same problem as with sugar quotas or farm subsidies.
How does one fix that, Broward?
A poltiical problem?
You fire people or force them to get onboard and cooperate.
What do you think Obama is doing?
Funny how everything comes back to capture.
Building on the work of his predecessors.
Or if you're in an environment that's not command-driven, you have a morass of unending problems which are rarely resolved. See Japan for example.
Mouse over Obama for my opinion.
Is Japan menu-driven?
It is the same problem as torture and ticking bomb scenarios - simply outlaw torture, make criminal persecution a default option and the let them explain their actions in court. (I believe this is exactly what Israel has implemented).
Similarly, write the rule that if a TBTF bank requires government support to continue its operations, the government automatically sues its officers for gross negligence. Let them hire the best lawyers to explain in court that they were relying on AAA ratings when leveraging their CDO bets. Who knows, maybe the judge will be sympathetic.
That threat itself will be a good deterrent, plus we also talked about with size-based capital penalties and other remedies.
Bond Girl;
Capture and redistribution. Capture was built into our political system by the founders. That's what the U.S. Senate is about. Just because Senators are now popularly elected does not mean that they won't vote the interests of their states. There are a lot of farm states, thus we have farm price supports, sugar price manipulation, etc. What else would one expect from a nation whose founders were mostly farmers?
Edit: replaced "not" with "now".
How does one fix that
Let the savers fail, meaning the banks, and everyone that lent to them (pension funds, the insurance companies, endowments) gets a haircut.
enough of this serious stuff. i've got to figure out how to file a patent and what to do with 10,000 quarters.
"enough of this serious stuff. i've got to figure out how to file a patent and what to do with 10,000 quarters. "
Can't help you with the quarters, but for the patent, get help from an expert unless you already are one.
Let the savers fail, meaning the banks,
You don't want an over-reaction that destroys more than necessary, though.
The odds are good that we're going to get a more conformist society.
That's sure what I see already the past 4-5 years.
What do you mean by conformist?
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 5:08 pm
Yes, it is. A doctor can be sued for negligence even if he or she is a part of a corporation or an LLP. If the regulation says officers of a failed bank can be personally sued by the fdederal government for negligence, then they can be sued for negligence. If Jamie Dimon does not like it, he can resign. If the JPM Board cannot find a suitable person willing to serve as its CEO, the regulators will close down the bank.
Are you saying this can be done without "piercing the corporate veil"?
Piercing the Bond Veil
What do you mean by conformist?
The 1950s, where most people said and did the "right" things.
Bruce Schneier summed it up well, although inadvertently.
I'm looking for the link.
"What do you mean by conformist?"
Right-wing. Thrifty. Narrow-minded. Unimaginative.
How close did I get, Broward?
LoL!
Looks like Basel Too makes a side living out of knocking off laundromats, in between going to law school and hob-nobbing with Hill staffers.
From the Wiki article you linked to: "In the United States, corporate veil piercing is the most litigated issue in corporate law".
To avoid complications, one simply needs to specify in the bank regulation that banks officers are personally liable to guard their banks against failure, then the veil piercing part will be very straightforward.
OT,Rabid Quail are really not a big problem in sebastopol or anywhere else in Sonoma county.Really.
patientrenter (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 2:41 pm
"What do you mean by conformist?"
Right-wing. Thrifty. Narrow-minded. Unimaginative.
Left-wing. Spendthrifty. Politically correct. Unrealistic.
This is fun. Your turn.
How close did I get, Broward?
I suspect the "right-wing" part won't fly.
Unimaginative and narrow-minded are probably right. Or... what's "left".
You can monkey with the banking system and insurance industry and regulations but ultimately, if too many assets sit in too many hands, that income will shift from consumption to production and you'll get exactly what we have right now anyway. An imbalance.
Awesome
Being a director could never give a doctor or lawyer immunity from neglegence. A famous veil-piercing case was a coterie of taxi "corporations" set up to limit tort liability to one shell, so that large judgments would be handled by one BK. The profits of all the different corp.s somehow wound up in the hands of a few owners.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 5:45 pm
From the Wiki article you linked to: "In the United States, corporate veil piercing is the most litigated issue in corporate law".
To avoid complications, one simply needs to specify in the bank regulation that banks officers are personally liable to guard their banks against failure, then the veil piercing part will be very straightforward.
Are you saying that simply "stating" in the body of a legislated law that the corporate veil no longer applies will invalidate centuries of common law?
Perhaps Liz or one of the proto-lawyers here will weigh in on that; it seems suspect to me.
For some reason "Potus # 44" reminds me of "Mambo # 5.
But "A little bit of Monica, all night long..." brings to mind a different Potus.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 5:47 pm
Being a director could never give a doctor or lawyer immunity from neglegence. A famous veil-piercing case was a coterie of taxi "corporations" set up to limit tort liability to one shell, so that large judgments would be handled by one BK. The profits of all the different corp.s somehow wound up in the hands of a few owners.
Is that the case where it was determined that in order to maintain the veil, the corporation had to "act" like a corporation? Just curious; brb
I believe that' bass ackwards, as my law profs would say. Limited corporate liability is not common law but statutory.
OT (somewhat):
Is there an "inquiring mind" on this thread who could plow through and make sense of the Federal Reserve Board's July report on its balance sheet commitments? It's 24 pages or so and curiously has data points from March through the 27th of June depending on what program is being explicated. I love the emphasis on the the necessity for asset-back securities it's buying by the billions to have earned AAA status from one of the rating agencies. Thank goodness, the Fed is being very careful with its funny money.
FRB: Redirected URL
Here's an example - Bob Dylan walking out in the rain.
.
Something Is Happening Here, But You Don’t Know What It Is… | The Agitator
.
How many people saw the "LA terrorist incident" yesterday?
Almost nobody.
I only know about it because I read the conspiracy boards last night.
I can't prove it but it was probably censored deliberately to avoid inciting people.
I didn't see anything about the LA terrorist incident.
Would you like to share with the class, broward?
Show and tell time broward. Inquiring minds MUST know.
Tear gas incident in L.A.
What's interesting is that there's almost no news media attention on WHO this guy is.
His bio is impressive.
.
Tear gas is fired into car in failed bid to end standoff [Updated] | L.A. NOW | Los Angeles Times
.
Yikes. "Negligence". "Medicine". No edit button. No typing quality control. Sorry.
Corporations must state their business purpose in their filing, even though it can be just "all legal endeavors". But to practice medicine requires a special license, for which special corporate structures may be possible. Limited liability only limits the personal civil (
liability of owners and directors to the assets of the corporation.
But that's plenty of Welfare, of course.
I am not a lawyer, so may well be wrong.
Here is my thinking - corporate directors already have personal liability (see the quote I posted above above the recent Lyondell case plus a whole bunch of classic cases like Revlon duties). Whether or not a given court case is protected by the corporate veil is debated all the time - it is not a sacred principle. If the regulation clearly states the position of the federal government when it will go after bank officers personally, I got to believe it will carry a lot of weight in the courtroom, as one won't be able to argue later that he thought he would protected by the corporate veil.
(Of course, the final verdict will be up to the judge, who might decide to apply the corporate veil)
Thank you Ken!!!!
I have a popcorn icon!
Neil
"I love the emphasis on the the necessity for asset-back securities it's buying by the billions to have earned AAA status from one of the rating agencies. "
You know how everyone was up in arms about the rating agencies' incentives being misaligned with investors because their business model relied too much on payments from the people creating the securities they were rating? And now the govt needs lots of securities to retain their AAA rating, and the rating agencies need the govt to keep their NRSRO status. No bad incentives there, I'm sure.
MrM the "veil piercing" cases are common law (judicial) limitations on statutory limited liability. Legislation which reimposes personal liability effectively repeals limited liability for that class of corporations.
Can not be applied ex post facto, of course.
Legislation which reimposes personal liability effectively repeals limited liability for that class of corporations.
Thanks, yogi - that's what I thought, too
Not to worry, Uncle Warren owns more of the ratings pie now...
wonderful new chart from dShort
dshort.com: Revisiting the Mega-Bear Quartet
August 15, 2009 weekend update
"Here is a chart I like better than my original Mega-Bear Quartet overlay. This "Real" Mega-Bear version..."
Somebody mis-spelled county a while back. . .
Glad you are glad, but I still think it looks like a cupcake.
Proto-lawyer?
The corporate veil in Fla is really hard to pierce tho it can be done. You really have to try.
Of course, the right to civil suit and the civil court system itself is granted in the first instance by statute, subject to Constitutional minimums, like due process (No right to counsel or jury trial in civil case). That right could be limited by judicial interpretation, such as enforcing a waiver. But in general, a court would only increase potential personal liability of a director by limiting the protection in a statute.
I just don't understand why I couldn't start a war with
v.
.
Liability, shmiability.
Directors and officers liability insurance - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ok, so who was that tear-gassed man?
Lawyers can form P. A.s for the tax benefits, but can't
use the corporate stucture to avoid being sued for malpractice.
Somehow, lawyers are thick on the ground anyway.
Ok, so who was that tear-gassed man?
I don't know, but he was mumbling about treasuries and dopes.
Uh-oh.
market short interest has been sheared to the bone - almost none left. Where does the support come from when GS says the rally is over and no shorts left to cover to smooth out the ride ?
D&O insurance notwithstanding, directors take their personal liability very seriously
"I just don't understand why I couldn't start a war with
v.
"
Because all true caffinistas prefer Peets. Especially now that Seattle's Best was swallowed up and destroyed by
.
D&O insurance notwithstanding, directors take their personal liability very seriously
Sure, but like all insurance it changes the error rate. Just like malpractice. < ducks >
Anyway, dinnertime on the east coast.
"D&O insurance notwithstanding, directors take their personal liability very seriously "
As they should. We have a court system that is mostly unpredictable, so relying on the corporate veil to protect oneself against an angry judge or a bloodthirsty jury is... unwise.
Insurance generally (always?) doesn't cover fraud.
I was reading Time Mag. There's an article about Las Vegas, mostly about commercial,
but with shenanigans in the single family home real estate market, this really
disgusted this hardened South Florida atty. I have a feeling the shennanigans
are over, as who has good enough credit anymore to buy a 2nd house and
then walk from the first one? And if short sellers are getting any under the
table money in South Fla, I don't know about it.
one last one... so relying on the corporate veil to protect oneself
The D&O pays out regardless of the veil. That's my point.
Even though "utopian ream" was a great mis-type, "The American Ream" warrants a glossary entry. Talk about encapsulating what's happening to the US taxpayer!
I hate to admit it, but I like McD's better than
or
; but I
.
like my home ground the best.
Or, was it count?
Go for it TJ.
Did you see the Elizabeth Warren video? Her charts show the American Ream in living color.
Nobody around, so just practicing my iconese.
OT (for Broward and other meme types)
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1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 6:12 pm
MrM the "veil piercing" cases are common law (judicial) limitations on statutory limited liability. Legislation which reimposes personal liability effectively repeals limited liability for that class of corporations.
Can not be applied ex post facto, of course.
Are you saying that the veil is statutory and the piercing is common-law? Just curious
At what point do we realize that the only exports the ROW will buy from us are raw materials ? They will never allow their currencies to strengthen to the point that we are
competitive on a labor cost basis. Time for tariffs.
lawyerliz (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 6:28 pm
Proto-lawyer?
The corporate veil in Fla is really hard to pierce tho it can be done. You really have to try.
Liz,
I know you've been doing this awhile. I also know we have some law students as well, and I was referring to them as proto-lawyers. No offense intended to anyone-
JP (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 6:35 pm
Ok, so who was that tear-gassed man?
I don't know, but he was mumbling about treasuries and dopes.
Jas, per chance?
More for Memeophiles
TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/15/2009 - 6:41 pm
Even though "utopian ream" was a great mis-type, "The American Ream" warrants a glossary entry. Talk about encapsulating what's happening to the US taxpayer!
Ken made this an egalitarian board, so feel free to add it yourself-
"why should the population of the US suffer to allow a few outsized egos to flourish at the head of a few huge US banks/institutions? "
Because they're rich and we're not.
This is how revolutions get started.
Lower export traffic likely means less consumption and a possible slowdown overseas, but also it means a higher trade deficit and a possibly lower dollar. See also Invetrics - Financial insights and stock market timing signals for the active investor