my parents attended another one of those free-lunch seminars last week. lots of slick brochures on "cash flow" foreclosure investing...

Stocks blasting higher on Fed Bubble Blowing Market Manipulation Wednesday.

Maybe they're going to fake out the markets today...

But they've been successfully obliterating economies with excess liquidity and inflation for so long now, why suddenly stop?

Sacto isn't probably the armpit of RRE, but it is likely a shoulder-blade, rib, or nipple. A neighbor.

Stimulus Funds Bring Relief to States, but What About 2010?

Ailing States Face Bleak Outlook in Next Fiscal Year - washingtonpost.com

Some investors will do fine in parts of the Sacto MSA.Others would be better off buying lottery tickets by far,it depends on the neighborhood/town you buy in.Parts of sacto make the worst of Oakland look good.

JimPortlandOR (profile) wrote on Wed, 8/12/2009 - 10:36 am

Sacto isn't probably the armpit of RRE

I thought that was Modesto

I thought that was Modesto

Modesto and Bakersfield competing to be the asscrack?

Soooooooooooooooooo tempted to put on a Sep bear call spread here.

it is amazing to watch evemn Roubini sit there and talk about the recession being over based ontechncial governement spending and rising gov't debt - the presumption of course being that this will spark a return to the disequilibrium and the virtual cycle will drive down the imbalance titling to the gov't side. Talk about Stockholm syndrome. One wonders if these people actually believe this garbage

Never mind.

FHA is insurance, they can be bought by Ginnie Mae.

FHA has something called MPR, minimum property requirements.. so not every property qualifies but MPR's aren't that bad. The minimum down is 3.5%. It is very liberal qualification for ratios and what they consider income so if you're even in the ballpark you'll be fine. It is a bit more expensive because of the insurance.. but for high LTV loans they are pretty much the only game in town.

Maricopa county Az chart porn for real estate listings and sales

Listings
http://www.armls.com/pdfs/NewListChartJune09.pdf

Sales
http://www.armls.com/pdfs/SoldChartJune09.pdf

Pirces for June 09
http://www.armls.com/pdfs/HmSalesMaricopaJune2009.pdf

Still looking to see if I can find REO sales broken out.

Lookee all that green this morning. The recession must really be over. That wasn't so bad now, was it?

Memories and their behavioral impact on current action are interesting to see from a distance. The UK still thinks there is a British Empire, and that the pound sterling is worth having around as a sign of Big Guy status. Biggest mistake was the failure to join the Euro and give up on the BOE.

Now, of course, one could say the same thing about the US$, but it will take us a hundred years also to realize that our destiny isn't so manifest.

The reasons the inventory of low priced houses is low are not healthy situations. Too many knife catchers and numerically challenged speculators are crowding the baby pool while on the supply side far too many people with low priced houses are clinging to the fantasy that their house is still a mid-priced property and waiting for reality to change to their wishes. Until the normal distribution of sales across price ranges returns regardless of at what level there cannot be a stabilization of prices.

what a joke....now we can't even have a 1% decline stick? These people are ill with money...

I sort of thought it wouldn't stick when the "story" was "stocks tumble in worst drop in five weeks"....OMG it's chaos! I guess it's a bitch when you're still levered 500:1

Ciao
MS

Lookee all that green this morning. The recession must really be over. That wasn't so bad now, was it?

Party like it's 2007!

People seem to think that stocks can go up forever and that another crash like 1929 can't happen, but if all these bubbles and ponzi finance schemes continue we could eventually see a 1929 type crash in the 21st century!

Financial crises aren't purely a 20th century phenomena. We might have to learn that the hard way.

oops! I was looking at 2006 chart. The 2009 March appears ~400K. 800K pretty high even for bubbliscious 2006.

No. The median VenCo SFR is $400k down from the peak of $608k.
Scroll to the bottom of the DQNews list:
DQNews - Los Angeles Times Zip Code Chart 

Dow 10,000 ok then what? dollar at 62 for a value?...be careful of what you wish for.

Grammar Nazi moment. Phenomenon, singular. Phenomena, plural.

Thanks, and as you were . . .

Pat Mcgroin - love the name , some times I go by Stu Pedasso - say it slowly if it doesnt come at first

I will be selling the current house so not concerned with the credit for rental income. Does an FHA loan also need PMI or is FHA sort of the same thing?

Thanks

Not a big fan of Taleb's books, but he makes some good points in the interview

"He said he doesn't consider himself a pessimist, but is worried about a system that provides tax breaks to failing businesses and rewards, through the "Cash for Clunkers" program, people who bought gas-guzzling vehicles and don't want them anymore."

I take issue with the doomed view. We're not doomed; we're just due for an exceedingly unpleasant paradigm shift. I've been in denial all of my life, and it ain't hurt me none. Public debt isn't "REAL" money. It's just Washington funny money. It we run out, we'll just print more.
/snark (<-for the humor impaired)

One of our interviewing supervisors in CA has said that investors are sometimes buying a whole block of homes at once to hold and sell one by one gradually as prices improve or they can achieve profit. I'm not quite sure how our guy knows this is what is going on (maybe he doesn't), but he seems convinced that reported sales would be much lower without these investors and he is on the ground out there where I am not.

The data in the MLS and public records really only breaks things down by Private Party, VA, FHA, or conventional... basically anything not PP,,VA,FHA is conventional.... so the bad nasty loans were considered "conventional" because their wasn't a "bat-shit crazy" category in the public records.

Free trade is not all it is cranked up to be, perhaps globalization needs to be re-thought,

An easy test is to throw up tariffs and see if India and China can buy their own goods.
They can't.
Their labor is priced below an equilibrium level and is forcing our labor levels to disequilibrium, too.
The real fix is for these other countries to pay higher wages but they're not going to do it willingly.

CR, thanks for the clarification.

I met a woman representing groups of investors doing the same thing on my last business trip. She said that this was almost the entire market for her.

I thought FHA was insurance much like VA loans. IIRC, the plan since last Fall was to wind down Freddie and Fannie and push loans towards Ginnie, since it had been well behaved and underexposed up until that point. I guess that have found a fix for THAT problem

on the Newshour they had an interview with an author of a book called "cheap"

I haven't read the book but the author believes that the whole idea of cheap goods is actually costing us more than we think.

There is a reason why we are being force fed the narrative that the financial crisis caused the economic problems. It helps avoid a more important discussion whether it is the fundamental economic system that is broken. The powers that be are powerful because they own the current broken system and therefore have no incentive to challenge the orthodoxy.

@effective demand,

great charts, thanks.

whole idea of cheap goods is actually costing us more than we think.

I don't see that there's any doubt about this.
The costs are disassociated, pushed back into pension plans, real estate loans, etc.
It's exactly the opposite of aligning costs to benefits.
.
Globalization and the Federal gov't are gigantic disassociation engines, harvesting benefits and tossing costs out into the environment like garbage blowing around in the wind.

"An easy test is to throw up tariffs and see if India and China can buy their own goods.
They can't."

With out free credit and no standards, no jobs, we can't afford our own products either!

, it also had the effect of making the "NET" standard of living higher for all involved

Highly debatable.
There's no reason why a car made in Okinoko, China has more value than a car made in Flint, Michigan.
The whole theory is predicated on two concepts - uneven distribution of commodities across the globe (which has no bearing on the preceding example) and a greater "diversity" of products & goods. It's highly questionable if distributing goods making across a much larger population generates anything new. A lot of a flim-flam. Boeing's latest plane is a good example. It's actually having far more logistical and coordination problems as a "global" product than if it was made in the United States.

A lot of hot air theory.

Net is the equivalent of sticking your feet in the oven and head in the fridge and call it an average temperature. Looking at just the net is exactly why we are in this problem. The median family income hasn't grown in 8 years. The Net income has grown substantially- only problem it has gone to fewer and fewer people.

Free trade results in what has been called "hollywood effect". The average salary paid to actors may go up but it reflects a few stars making huge amounts of money and lots of actors waiting on tables. This may all result in growth of GDP but as people commented yesterday GDP is lousy measure of human happiness. Ironically a steeply progressive tax system is consistent with a free trade system but neither the left nor right would want that bargain.

If I had a business of renting 30 houses, I'd create an LLC for them. Then if & when those went bust, I wouldn't lose my personal possessions.

Good lesson for the future.

Travel to China and see the pollution, living standards of those making the products you buy at Walmart cause they're cheap. There's nothing free about free trade.

Everyone was fine with free trade as long as their 401k was going up, inflation was low (due to our exporting our inflation to Asia), as long as it was that guy losing his job and not me, as long as we could get loans with amazingly low rates.

Of course now that were seeing the ugly side affects of free trade it's much easier to blame the other side thN to ask what role you personally played in the whole game.

That's why instead of a book called "cheap", I'd write a book called "none". Cheap goods may be costing us more than we think, but no goods are most certainly costing us what we paid - nothing.

We don't need no stinkin cheap goods.

/ <-- (love that)

The Net income has grown substantially- only problem it has gone to fewer and fewer people.

A large part of the problem.
People with higher incomes have lower propensity to consume.
You get more investment $$$ and less consumption $$$ and disequilibrium occurs.
.
That's why the current plan by the Feds is (apparently) working.
By forcing greater $$$ from higher incomes to lower incomes, they're restoring the consuming side.
I have no doubt that globalization could eventually made to work.
I have serious doubts if it produces anything worthwhile for the risk and complexity.

Others might think of other fundamental problems- but to me the decline in wages is probably the biggest. Here is a simple thought exercise- the median wage has not increased in 8 years. But think of the all the products that we now believe that we "must have"- MP3 players, hi tech cell phones etc - how do people afford the new goodies? Did the cost of other things go down to make room?

I think people underestimate the impact of declining food prices on economic prosperity and peoples . 60 years ago people could expect to spend 50% of their income on food. Now that is about 10%. That decline plus wages rising made room for tremendous expansion in the income available for consumer goods. (BTW it is only in the last 50 years that we have done away with calorie deficiency in the US). None of those trends were in place and in fact reversed themselves in the last 8 years.

We were able to get past this essential contradiction through the magic of debt. But the contradiction still remained despite all the debt creation. Ultimately it was going to reassert itself and when it did it was going to bring the debt bubble down. That is exactly what I believe has happened.

"The cheapest producer will get the work."

Isn't that the way that things are supposed to work? Really, the problem is that the price on the price tag isn't necessarily the 'real cost'. Environmental costs like nitrogen and phosphate pollution are associated with less expensive groceries at the store.

Progressive income tax rates serve us by redistributing wealth--which 50 years ago was considered a good thing. Now, the drastically reduced upper rates have fostered greed and inequality. Weakening unions was not a good thing--but is championed by the wealthy similarly as slavery was championed in the South. Our country needs a large middle class--otherwise we are Argentina in more ways than one.

I love Taleb's books, but he's a rather peevish and paranoid individual, literally-- "everyone's out to get me" sort of thing:

Taleb: There's A Smear Campaign Against Me!

As a resident of the Sacto area (but NOT the "traditional" Sacto metro area itself) I can say that - if THIS is (near) the worse it can get - then the people waiting for the great social collapse are going to be waiting a LONG time. And, it might even be worse than "official" here as the state-drone peasantry has taken a 15% pay cut - which doesn't show up as "unemployment", but surely has the same effect.

So, you might want to (at least) stop buying any more guns n ammo. Looks like Merica will be around for awhile.

Progressive income tax rates serve us by redistributing wealth

I agree 100%. The only problem is that when governments at all levels are unable to balance their checkbooks, they becomes a slave to capital, who sure as hell won't support progressive taxes or non-tax free muni bonds.

broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Wed, 8/12/2009 - 11:41 am

Broward,
Let me give you an example from the industry where I've worked for many years. Time was when a portable audio mixer might cost you close to
$1000.00. Between production being moved to China and greater competition, the price dropped to perhaps $200.00. Now a lot of kids could afford this mixer, bettering their standard of living, while the Chinese had a better standard of living by producing this product.
Granted, a number of workers in the US were hurt by the jobs moving offshore, but that number pales in comparison to the number of folks who could now buy a mixer. If the currency imbalance between the US and China were corrected, the problem of moving production offshore would be rectified as well. Protectionism is not the answer.
BTW, while I've shown a singular example above, one can readily extrapolate from specific to general and be correct.

"So, you might want to (at least) stop buying any more guns n ammo. Looks like Merica will be around for awhile. "

NOT, I hope you're right; I've never really been in the guns 'n ammo crowd, except on low-blood-sugar days. But do keep in mind that a 15--percent cut is not the same as 15 percent job losses. The workers still have their benes, their retirement, etc. Most of them can cut back and stay in place.

What I'm saying is that gov't towns like Sac are not typical. In a similar situation, private industry would simply cut the jobs by 15 percent -- leaving those people also without affordable healthcare or other benes, or the ability to make their mortgages, etc. And outside of Sac, this is happening.

Somebody from industrial Ohio would look at Sac, I suspect, and say, this is NOT the worst it can get.

Fed announces no major changes due to fragility of the recovery and market gains another 125 or Fed announces an end to QE and other programs due to the strength of the recovery and the market gains another 125?

The current problem still seems to be the debt bubble bursting, the rapid deleveraging of assets across the board. That is what is causing massive dislocations in the economy at the present. That is the problem that the Fed and Treasury are trying to address.

Assume it works to the point where they cushion the blow. The blow still hurts, but the economy remains functional.

What possible change in the U.S. economy gives rise to increased household incomes? Sure, a highly progressive tax structure can redistribute existing dollars, but it can't create new dollars.

I think we'll go back to 'bumping along the bottom' rather than seeing a recovery at all.

/So, you might want to (at least) stop buying any more guns n ammo. Looks like Merica will be around for awhile./

In my pragmatic box I agree, fully.

In my tinfoil hat box, I also agree, but would add that instead of buying more guns n ammo to locate and secure potable, defensible water is far more critical.

In my round-peg box, however, I would suggest that the momentum for disintegration verses cohesion is at play, and that there's more of the former than the latter. Meaning that sustained and prolonged economic decline will be difficult to manage regarding social stability and that there will be many opportunities for competing organizations with competing ideologies to further destabalize whatever is left of the social contract we thought we had.

--bh

"In my round-peg box, however, I would suggest that the momentum for disintegration verses cohesion is at play, and that there's more of the former than the latter. Meaning that sustained and prolonged economic decline will be difficult to manage regarding social stability and that there will be many opportunities for competing organizations with competing ideologies to further destabalize whatever is left of the social contract we thought we had.

--bh "

I am in awe of that paragraph. Much more elegant than simply shouting "populism!" which is what I do.

It is the very scenario you describe, IMO, that brought about the new deal. Roosevelt saw what he had to do to stabilize the capitalist economy/society against competing ideologies which were gaining adherents in the social vacuum.

crazyv, you're working your way thru the maze very well. Keep working at it, and you'll soon be there.

Basel Too (profile) wrote on Wed, 8/12/2009 - 12:02

IMO, the fundamental problem is the Middle Class retirement, a post-ww2 concept, which simultaneously requires inflating asset bubbles and deflating labor expenses. And unfortunately, the mechanism to accomplish the elusive 8% yields were the Wall Street banksters and their consultancy firms. The mechanism worked so long as there were more borrowers and investors, but you can't beat demographics.

I think the real problem is our expectations of what it means to be successful are. It seems that most feel entitled to going on cruises, accumulating lots of toys (purchased at bargain prices), "feeling" wealthy from having property that perpetually increases in value, etc., and not from having built something with their own hands, growing something, raising good kids, leading a good life, etc. Some seem to think that there should either be equality of outcome, while others only care if their outcome outperforms that of their neighbors. Happiness is a choice, but while you're entitled to the unrestrained pursuit of it, you are not entitled or guaranteed it as an outcome.

Re: It's funny how you mention high tax rates and union membership 50 year ago without mentioning how they nearly strangled the economy 35 year ago in the late '70s.

We have a strangled economy NOW, what's the difference !

Unions are the ONLY way the society's population of dumbasses can keep up. How ELSE are they going to keep up? They're dumbasses.

I'm not a big fan of 'bailing out the banks,' but I don't see that it necessarily will make things worse when it all shakes out.

As I said, what I do see is Fed and Treasury trying to soften the blow of the crash from rapid deleveraging. That is the immediate problem.

If by doing so, certain bankers continue to make tens of millions in income, that is merely a byproduct of the process. (Yeah, I would tax the hell out of them.)

What we need for the future is a plan to address the systemic problem of no jobs and very limited upward mobility. Jobs for all who wanted to work and the dream of bettering one's lot in life have been a huge motivating force in the development of this country.

Re: I think the real problem is our expectations of what it means to be successful are

Who expectations?

The unions ROLE was to screw management. Management's roll is the screw the stockholders. When you took away Unions you gave management all goodies.

I love it when the wealthy talk about "expectations" when they really mean "I don't like other people doing the screwing that I'M entitled too."

whats up with existing home sales report? hardly any mention in media..

Peak season and down from last year..

Existing home sales fell in second quarter: NAR - MarketWatch

very nice diversions of things we dont need to see....

MEL,

After WWII we where the only industrial power left after the war. We did great with no competition from the rest of the world and a no compete customer, base the whole world. Now we have competition and a lot of what you claim will not work today.

"When you took away Unions you gave management all goodies. "

UAW and U.S. Gov ARE management, now...

Dollar cliff diving...

.that is all.

Re: UAW and U.S. Gov ARE management, now...

If you don't have a large Union movement - which controls its dumbasses - then WHERE ELSE would the dumbasses be? If the government doesn't manage them, who DOES? They are DUMBASSES!!!!! SOMEBODY HAD BETTER BE WATCHING THEM!!!

"And the market gains another 125."

Fed Dollars go a long way, in a low volume market.

Geezsh. CR has to be a way of life, Or you get hopelessly far behind.

I'd like to see graphs like that for Miami-Dade Broward and Palm Beach
Counties. Bet the blue bars would be 'way lower.

if THIS is (near) the worse it can get
.
It is not, far from it - WILL it get worse - and worst case scenario worse? But this ain't even close to the worst...

ac,

summary: smoke crack long enough and your heart will stop.

--bh

crazyv, I don't see the government actions as trying to prevent the deleveraging. They know it's all coming down. What I see is that they are trying to stretch it out and thus soften the blow over time. (How many times have you seen the 'kick the can' and 'extend and pretend' comments here. It's really the same thing.)

On a related topic, let's not forget that the pool of dumbasses is growing every day. Just look at the current class of high school grads. I shudder thinking that they will be the workers who will fund my Social Security checks if I ever live that long.

Okay, got to go sweep out the stables or whatever the hell I do these days.

Later.

funny that you don't mention the 50's when there was strong union membership and a 90% tax rate. Regarded As halcyon time by many.

Ah yes... those halcyon days when half of Europe and most of Asia were opting for centrally planned economies. Once the Berlin Wall fell and parts of Asia decided to allow their labor to compete those halcyon days in America were over.

As Tom mentioned, parts of Sacramento make Oakland look good.

There is a reason for that. Lots of lower income people from places in the east bay including Oakland have moved out here. Some bought down towards Elk Grove, Fruitridge, and Meadowview areas and some have come out here recently because their section 8 vouchers extend farther. The Sacramento police are being pushed to the limits to deal with this group.

We also have some neighborhoods where the parolee population beats anything you see in the Bay area. The FBI dataset release for 2009 will be very interesting reading.

Now couple that affect with reduced welfare and related social benefits and a drastically shrinking government employment pool and you have a crushing deflationary wave. So the local muni cut back more and the cycle begins anew.

But all that together, and then think of those folks buying foreclosures which are usually located in blighted areas and I wonder what the hell they are thinking.

10 yr at 1pm on deck...dollar backtesting 78....where's neil with that popcorn...

ac,

--bh

Heroin is a better example IMO.

I saw a episode of Intervention once where the person doing the intervention said "There's lots of old crack whores, but no old heroin whores."

"Glad I am a Smart ASS!"

That reminds me...........I asked a couple dozen high schoolers a simple question last week, "Why does a hen need a rooster?"

..............MOST answered "to lay an egg".

........this exemplifies how pathetic a job the current generation of adults, parents, teachers, and school systems are doing. When something as simple as chickens and eggs boggle the mind, how can we expect them to understand any of this? Lower wage jobs are definitely needed here and not abroad.

From CreditSlips.org, an explanation of why the mods aren't being made. Looks like we should expect more foreclosures, unless we bailout the servicers.

The real problem for servicers is not just a desire to make more money but their almost total inability to comply with HAMP. The problem with the HAMP plan is that it fails to take into account the normal obligations of servicers under their respective Pooling and Servicing Agreements. In most cases, a servicer is obligated to advance to the Trustee for the securitized mortgage trust the monthly principal and interest payments for every loan that has defaulted. This can be a massive monthly financial obligation. Most servicers are not allowed to recover these "P & I Advances" until the property is foreclosed and then sold as Real Estate Owned (REO). More importantly, HAMP forces mortgage servicers to act as "full-document" mortgage loan originators. Most mortgage servicers have no experience, training or knowledge about how to originate a mortgage loan. Yet, this is exactly what HAMP is asking them to do. The $1,000 HAMP modification fee and the annual $1,000 success for performance HAMP fees do not even begin to cover the expenses the servicers must incur in order to fully comply with the HAMP "origination" rules. As a result, the so-called "financial incentives" for servicers to modify loans are totally unrealistic and fail to take into account how this system really functions.

Charles Kiting (profile) wrote on Wed, 8/12/2009 - 12:45 pm
Ah yes... those halcyon days when half of Europe and most of Asia were opting for centrally planned economies. Once the Berlin Wall fell and parts of Asia decided to allow their labor to compete those halcyon days in America were over.

It's worth noting that European and Japanese central planning were the result of our requirements for funding their rebuilding efforts under the Marshall Plan. Once we forgave all of that debt in the '60s and '70s, it became harder and harder to compete, particularly with unions sucking the life out of US Steel, etc.

Guess we shouldn't have forgiven the debt then Cinco.

This complete delusional lack-of-acknowledgement of the number of dumbasses in Merican baffles me.

The Libertarians can't seem to comprehend that the top lives on screwing the dumbasses.

The Socialists/Liberals/Progressives (Whatever SLP's) can't even ADMIT there are dumbasses, even though their entire political existence is based on helping them.

Unions controlled the dumbasses and focused their stupidity ON Management. When the Unions collapsed, the dumbasses were free to focus their OWN stupidity. They focused on the nearest moving object their tiny-brains could see, which was each other. This is how Fascism (Faux News, Right Wingnut Radio) get popular; by keeping its NATURAL listeners (hopeless dumbasses) living in fear of each other.

Meanwhile, the smart people have captured the government and are raping the treasury. All because the dumbasses lost focus on – say, Goldman Sacks - and instead are focused on THOSE GODDAMN PEOPLE.

A society that can't manage its dumbasses is DOOMED.

Geezsh. CR has to be a way of life, Or you get hopelessly far behind. - LL

I've started skimming the doom. Otherwise, I would have no life. Now I just look for new and different stuff, like beachcombing.

It wasn't me-

I miss the ratings system. I could choose just the "excellent authors", or the "good"s and the "excellents". Maybe Ken with do it again someday.

Let's see we are a few minutes from release of the Treasury budget for the month, and well into the market pump into the FOMC announcement 15 minutes or so thereafter....

Issue of sustainable carrying capacity - going to take a real technogenie to make it work this time - something like beginning to harvest extraplanetary resources, power satellites, etc. to kick this can down the road...

Treasury sells $23bln in 10-yr notes at 3.734%

Indirect bidders buy 45.7% of 10-year auction

Slightly OT, but if someone can explain this one to me, I'd be grateful. From Crain's on a portfolio of buildings in the Bronx. If the loans delivered by Deutsche Bank "didn't meet Fannie's underwriting standards", why weren't they returned to Deutsche Bank?

"Fannie Mae had bought the $29 million mortgage portfolio from Deutsche Bank Berkshire Mortgage in 2007 and had proposed auctioning it off through a website called DebtX. The buildings, located in the Crotona section of the Bronx, are rundown, including 10 which have made the city’s list of worst-maintained buildings. The buildings are home to 520 families.

Ocelot¸a real estate investment company, bought the portfolio in 2007 for $36 million, $29 million of which was debt issued by Deutsche Bank and immediately sold to Fannie Mae. Fannie discovered the loans didn't meet their underwriting standards after they were delivered by Deutsche Bank. The buildings were subsequently abandoned by Ocelot when they could no longer afford to pay the overvalued mortgage. The loans went into foreclosure in March."

Apparently they sold over a range 3.55 - 3.73. Not sure how that all works though.

"Apparently they sold over a range 3.55 - 3.73. Not sure how that all works though. "

The FED buys the stink bids via their proxies.

GDD,

We had that reverse gentrification from 91 to 98 when the good parts were being fed on by the bad parts. Then speculators bought in close to the med center and for every one nice owner occupied house, you have 12 crack houses. The variation block by block is like a textbook example for urban decay patterns.

Curtis park, where that assemblyperson Richardson lived, is considered great. I looked at a home there about 3 doors down from Sutterville on Cutler in 99. The reason we didn't buy it had to do what ins would cost us as the theft rates were staggerring. People had been mugged in their driveways. This is because sutterville is the throughfare to south oak park. Just drive .25 miles and go under the 99 overpass and the demographic changes radically.

For people who live in the LA area, this is like having the scary parts of a place like Bell gardens right up against the 10 with the fringe of Hancock part right on the other. I could explain it better with a map and white board.

I could go on and on about this... I'm sure I'll be pigged any minute

EVERYBODY thinks their kids will be SO fantastic ,and kids are SO life fulfilling and kids are SO special.

I'm pretty sure I never thought this.
Increasingly glad that the female world decided I wasn't worthy of reproduction.

GDD,

One more thing, the change in the demographic mix in the outlying new developments is having an impact. It's just like Rob said it would be.
Middle class families bought and lost the homes or they are now renting them out. These were the new white flight neighborhoods away from the urban core. Now they are full of rentals, either investor owned or a future foreclosure in the making. Watch these areas degrade just like Boyle Heights did from it's prime. The only suburban areas that seem to be holding up are wayyyyy out in the foothills.

From FT.com

QE Explained:

"Sir, In a sleepy European holiday resort town in a depressed economy and therefore no visitors, there is great excitement when a wealthy Russian guest appears in the local hotel reception, announces that he intends to stay for an extended period and places a €100 note on the counter as surety while he demands to be shown the available rooms.

While he is being shown the room, the hotelier takes the €100 note round to his butcher, who is pressing for payment. The butcher in turn pays his wholesaler who, in turn, pays his farmer supplier.

The farmer takes the note round to his favourite “good time girl” to whom he owes €100 for services rendered. She, in turn, rushes round to the hotel to settle her bill for rooms provided on credit.

In the meantime, the Russian returns to the lobby, announces that no rooms are satisfactory, takes back his €100 note and leaves, never to be seen again.

No new money has been introduced into the local economy, but everyone’s debts have been settled. Is this “quantitative easing”?"

I never spent much time roaming around Sac. Too often when I did I was grossed out. So I stayed home working. I did like Land park..id go over there to play golf, and drive around checking out the homes in the area north of the course. Not bad. Didnt see much of curtis park, but it seemed similar, at least the northern part up by broadway behind Tower.

Id see the new stuff when Id go to the airport and need to get gas. Just ugly, ugly ugly crap they built, and people to match. Those areas will all become ghetto it looks like. Half empty, dirty, cookiecutter and incredibly tasteless design.

A little Fed Preview

The people I know didn't reproduce like myself, did it because we couldn't afford to. Kids are expensive. You have to be a trustifarian or on welfare if you want to have children when you are young.

oink

Ditto.
I never made enough money to attract women or feel comfortable about having kids until I was almost in my 40s.
By then, I had no desire for more trouble.
.

Re: American management didn't miss an opportunity to shoot themselves in the foot.

I love how the Libertarians always project the mythological Merican management onto the Japanese and Europeans.

This is probably the book you were thinking of:

Amazon.com: The Reckoning (9780380721474): David Halberstam: Books

(Unfortunately, it doesn't present Merica as the GREATEST in the world so is obviously bias)