Does the lender have to foreclose before the borrower turns over the property?

Nemo? Is that what you say?

All of these buildings have negative cash flow with rising vacancies and falling rents...

... so they have to make it up on volume.

Edit: I was trying to make a joke, but apparently that was indeed the biz plan:

But Maguire's future still looks dicey. The company still has $3.5 billion in debt, and some analysts say that amount exceeds the value of its remaining properties. "Almost every building in [Maguire's] portfolio is under water," says Michael Knott, an analyst with Green Street Advisors. "I don't envy some of the choices that they are having to make."

And to think that the recession ends soon, per Krugman. Almost made it.

JP, exactly. I think they did - they bought every building they could at the peak - someone must have made some nice money selling some of these buildings

best wishes

Pigged

In regards to paradigm shift

I value individuals, and they come in all ages. We are on the verge of collapse or advance, probably a little of both mixed together. I hope we have enough wisdom to embrace the old with the new. So much damage has already been done by the reworking of history by our present masters. I say it often there is nothing new under the sun. To forget that is to repeat the mistakes of the past. What is new, I believe now, excuse the hubris, is the scale of change that is represented....if we advance now instead of collapse, we could all be Neanderthals compared to the new more Human than Human that is coming... I feel like Moses some days... I see the promised land, but I can't go there, and in some ways not even sure if I want to.

As you well know, Vonbek.
The future is coming for us whether we are ready for it or not.

CR,
Maguire aggressively flipped and extracted "equity" at every turn. It wasn't so much buying at the peak as trading beanie babies. They just got holding when the music stopped. They haven't been landlords for years.

My comment. This is the kind of nonsense has to stop. What's this compartmentalized strategic default stuff? Maguire is a single entity. It is nothing but an opportunity for mischief to pretend one loan stays with one property. Go after the parent company. It isn't like they didn't extract what they could from the components.

A law that required down payments of 20% or more in home lending, with regulations and enforcement to catch the cheats?

patientrenter: how do your implement such a law? Sure, you can apply it to national banks. you can apply it FDIC insured institutions. you can apply it FNM/FRE. but such a law would probably not be applicable to nonbank banks (e.g. GE Capital, Countrywide, LEH, etc), especially ones chartered by the states.

This is the part that they don't get because the experts are so far removed from the average workplace. These buildings were designed and to be inhabited possibly by architects for example. Now what is emerging is that these same firms decimated by the collapse will never rent space in these buildings. Space in an office is not required to do anything like civil engineering, architecture, landscape architecture or a myriad of other things. Laptops loaded with AutoCAD, Acrobat, Messenger with a broadband have made these all irrelevant.

Here in Scottsdale, more meetings are held in Paradise Bakery than in an office, and clients do not want to see what they are being overcharged for in the form of lavish 2004/05 space and overhead. The day of the office is coming to an end for many businesses.

Vonbek,

Unfortunately TPTB are too invested in the status quo. They're desperately attempting to prop up the old at the expense of the new.

Yeah the immediate future this fall has me scared for sure HomeGnome. I have to decide if a swine flu vaccine for a virus that I believe is a credible threat has been tested enough that with a reasonable certainty, is not going to do more harm than good to my two boys. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

What's this compartmentalized strategic default stuff?

I thought it was "efficient breach"? Wink

Maguire will likely get plaudits for such a move, yet homeowners are actively discouraged from doing the same. Where's Obama and his "mortgage modification" squad???

You can have a "deed in lieu" of foreclosure if title is clear.

Yeah the immediate future this fall has me scared for sure HomeGnome. -V

I just finished reading "The Science of Fear" which is about risk and statistics. In the first chapter, the author talks about 9/11, and how people were afraid to get on a plane for some time afterward. So they drove, instead. This added over 1500 deaths to the traffic fatality toll for that year.

If anyone's interested in listening in on Maguire's "earnings" conference call tomorrow morning:

Maguire Properties - Investor Relations - Event Details

"how do your implement such a law? Sure, you can apply it to national banks. you can apply it FDIC insured institutions. you can apply it FNM/FRE. but such a law would probably not be applicable to nonbank banks (e.g. GE Capital, Countrywide, LEH, etc), especially ones chartered by the states."

I hadn't thought it through, Basel. It as a hypothetical concrete limit that, if written and enforced across all types of lenders, may have been able to avoid some bad loans, whereas a rule that said LEH could securitize trash but BOA couldn't was always going to be ineffective.

But let me see if I can actually give some bite to the 20% rule idea quickly. LEH and GE all had to pay (or at least avoid) federal taxes. So you could apply higher taxes to the extent that they create or process loans with less than 20% down. There are probably much better ways, but I am trying to patch a hole quickly here, just to give some plausibility to the idea that the craft might float.

Show me the mortgage!

==============

Maguire Properties Inc., one of the largest office-building owners in Southern California, is planning to hand over control of seven buildings with some $1.06 billion in debt to creditors ...

scone,
I don't believe in statistics. I defy quite a few. As a very weird individual, both mentally and medically, both my children are prone to my unique heritage. So far we have been lucky, and no major reactions to any vaccinations, but we have had mild reactions to all. When I hear normal, status quo, or routine...I get very scared because those procedures are based on the many and not the few...there are always causalities...and personally, I don't like tempting fate.

RD, my first thought also was why the lenders could have been led into such weak agreements, essentially non-recourse loans against single properties. But I recall having read of many big-name private equity firms that are busily winding up or restructuring leveraged projects that went wrong. Lenders have no power when there is a global savings glut.

In case anyone's interested, this blog covers Portland, OR. CRE. They've got a story stating Portland has the lowest apartment vacancy rate in the nation, at the moment. Which sits weirdly with one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation. We must have a lot of trustafarians.

The ft.² Report

The biggest problem I see with both commercial and residential real estate, is people aren't down a little, most everybody is down substantially.

Even the 'whales'* are beaching nowadays, gasping for air...

  • Vegas slang for big gamblers

I don't believe in statistics. ... I don't like tempting fate.

You do realize how contradictory these 2 statements are, don't you? Wink

Statistics have their place, but does nothing to give cold hard numbers a human face.

Your face is OK
But your purse it too tight
Gimme Some Money!

scone, behave!

Try this: Hi, I'm PR. I believe in statistics, and I've beaten the odds.

Try this: Hi, I'm PR. I believe in statistics, and I've beaten the odds. - PR

I am an old fart because I have beaten the odds?

I have beaten the odds, and therefore am an olde fartette.

Yes, told you that I am weird...remember I don't even have a dominate eye, I am ambidextrous ...my brain is very evenly divided and I cycle from short intense creative periods to extended periods of extreme logic and in between I have brief moments where both work together....I can actually hold two contradictory positions that seem totally logical to me. Call it insanity, but I have a gift for insight, so it kinda of balances out.

'"But I don't buy the idea that this particular recession is somehow so new, so different, so unprecedented, that it's impossible to "get through"'

'and/or so different from the past that it can't be understood via the "lessons of history" such as they are."'

Scone, I think its possible that the current economic crisis could have unprecedented consequences but will still be understood (or better yet, interpreted) via the "lesson[s] of history". We have seen many unprecedented historical events over the last 50 decades. I think your sense of complacency stems from a powerful evolutionary drive to not worry about what could happen. Animal optimism.

The second dip in 1982 was an engineered recession. If we have a double dip this time I suspect it will be triggered by one of Taleb's swans.

---____,,,......

Thanks.

You ever wonder about the popularity of vampires and zombies with the younger generation? Perhaps thats how they see boomers?

Tommorow we go to stay in a brand new, formerly luxury condo, now apt., now also short term corporate rental. I am going to be interested in seeing how many people are actually living there

One factor may be out-of-towners moving to Portland for the lifestyle, keeping housing prices high, and "trapping" long-time residents in apartments. Just a guess, but I know some people down here who've talked about retiring to Portland, and one couple who actually did it -- well, sold their nearly-at-the-beach house here for seven figures and bought a condo in downtown St. Pete and another in downtown Portland. High-end sunbirds.

My daughter is ambidexterous also. Back in the days when architects actually drew a lot,
she would use her left hand when her right got tired. As a preteen, she also had eidetic
memory. Don't think she still does. Was drawing, crudely in 3 dimensions when she
was 5. Aren't supposed to be able to do that.

Also, she still has her job.

What is even more ironic about this huge complex is that it is one street down from Freddie Mac Drive

Scone, I think its possible that the current economic crisis could have unprecedented consequences but will still be understood (or better yet, interpreted) via the "lesson[s] of history". We have seen many unprecedented historical events over the last 50 decades. I think your sense of complacency stems from a powerful evolutionary drive to not worry about what could happen. Animal optimism.

Um, nah. Not complacent. But not depressed, either. There. One meaningless psychobabble bit for another.

yuan,

We don't need no stinkin' Black Swan. It's not a double-dip, it's a dead cat bounce.

You ever wonder about the popularity of vampires and zombies with the younger generation? Perhaps thats how they see boomers?

I've had similar thoughts.

I missed my chance to put in a response to Krugmans, " The great free fall seems to be over" so hopefully the CR crowd doesn't get too upset by my coming late to the party. Obviously, he's the Nobel prize winner and he should know. Here's what I know. Layoffs and plant closings typically come in waves. It's like fighting a battle. You send your soldiers in waves toward the enemy. If the first wave doesn't win, you make adjustments to your plan and try again. Right now business profits for thousands of companies are at 75 year lows and no green shoots are even on the horizon to bring them back. This will not be allowed to stand...it's not how corporations make stockholders happy. As we speak, those companies are preparing the next wave and and the next and they will continue to send those waves until A. the economy recovers and brings profits back or B. they have downsized sufficiently for profits to recover. The secondary problem with plan B is that many of these companies are leveraged to the hilt so a smaller company will mean that they can never pay their debt off. We all know what happens then.With apologies to Krugman, this is what I see from where I'm at...and I've been up to my elbows in it. Slightly more on topic, the fortune 500 company that closed the plant where I worked has millions of dollars worth of big and expensive machinery in that plant. It would cost millions of dollars to move that same equipment and there is no market for it right now. They are considering cutting it up and selling it as scrap metal in order to clear out the building so they can put it on the market.

Oh, Glod, I thought the boomer bashing was over with.

And for the record, I like trashy vamp novels too.

Charlain Harris anyone?

All I want for pre Christmas is to see Trump go bust!

Oh, they think they can sell the building?

Hahahahahahah.

One factor may be out-of-towners moving to Portland for the lifestyle, keeping housing prices high, and "trapping" long-time residents in apartments. - BD

That has certainly been the engine of RE in the past. Mostly Californians coming up here. I have heard, but can't confirm, that some people gamed the system to the extent of extracting money from their Cali home via HELOC, then buying cash in Oregon and jingle-mailing the keys of the Cali home. But that was then. I have no idea what's keeping prices up now. We have had only a 16% drop, but unemployment is over 12% and much worse in some areas.

It would cost millions of dollars to move that same equipment and there is no market for it right now. They are considering cutting it up and selling it as scrap metal in order to clear out the building so they can put it on the market.

Interesting example of "interesting times."

How many people were specialists in operating just that type of equipment?

No problem - park in under a troubled asset relief program and all will be fine. Congrats who saw some peak and off loaded the items. Sucker, minute...some saying like that..

Maybe all this stuff is the equivalent of war, and we'll have to replace all this stuff
we destroyed for no reason, and then we will have better more productive stuff.

A Green Shoots ? In playing scrabble this evening. I made a 7 letter word.

With the g of someone else it was trolling.

And I made the word shoot too.

Love

It's Sunday night, can't we lighten up a little?

Had a great day at the La Brea tar pits.

Scone,

Is that the land of the bike tribes?

A great day at the Tar Pits means you managed to squelch your way out,
unlike the sabre toothed tigers?

liz,
You daughter has gifts. Thank you for sharing. I am not artistic, though both my sons seems to be interested in drawing and painting right now. I was immediately drawn to music as a child. This is weird, but I started playing the piano by ear, did the Chariots of Fire theme for a recital when I was six. I sort of lost myself in the piano for hours at a time back then, but I hated lessons and I hated playing other peoples music. I wanted to make my own...no one would let me do that. So musically I am still playing piano by ear for myself at my level for my enjoyment. No where near what my potential could have been, and I have grown very rusty in the years since as my interests have expanded, but I still love music. My one complaint about my parents is no classical music when I was a child, I didn't discover Beethoven until much too old. The truth is that the piano lessons I was taking was mostly church music (not even Bach) and it bored the hell out of me, that is why I was playing my own and didn't learn enough of the fundamentals of music.

One factor may be out-of-towners moving to Portland

well, remember the early 90s RE crash.
A small outflux from L.A. is a relatively large influx into smaller cities.

Comrade Polyanna Greenshoots,

Who made the machines? German? US? Japan?

Scone, Is that the land of the bike tribes? - N

If you mean Critical Mass, that's a presence here. If you mean bicyclists with lots of tattoos, that's pretty much standard, too.

Good Night All!
:toothbrush: :floss:

sabre toothed tigers?

Technically, saber toothed cats.

Yeah, no one got stuck.

"I have no idea what's keeping prices up now. We have had only a 16% drop, but unemployment is over 12% and much worse in some areas."

I took a quick look at Housing Tracker, and Portland inventory now (officially, anyway) isn't any higher than two years ago. Twice was it was in '06, but still. There must still be some demand, from somewhere.

Hahahahahahahahahahah Gnome.

A small outflux from L.A. is a relatively large influx into smaller cities. - B

True. The entire population of Oregon is about half of the Bay Area alone. We are a wholly owned subsidiary. The natives don't like that, but geography is destiny.

Scone,

I meant the ones, I think Otis writes about. Mobile groups who use bikes as packhorses.

Or, Bob, people are refusing to sell.

I wonder if sabre tooths catz purred.

Meow.

Coinz - Ya lets lighten up a little...

So WHO says up to 55M will die with H1N1 - thank glod a good porion of the world vacinies are produced in Canada, just a few miles north of us - Wait a minute - thats not on the Buy Amerikan program, oh shoot...

Scrabble props are big mojo where I come from, lliz - gratz

I think the have completely sequenced the dna of a sabre tooth now and it wasn't all that different from the domesticated house cat, if I remember correctly, so I bet they did.

There must still be some demand, from somewhere. - BD

The local meme is that our land use laws, which are admittedly pretty unique, saved us from sprawl. I'm not sure about that. But according to the local paper, most of the foreclosures are due to unemployment, rather than crazy lending. So maybe our market was too small to attract a lot of "loan sharks." (Excepting Bend, of course.) There is also a "last in, first out" meme, but there is no data to support it, IMO.

55 million is a Darwinian trifle.

With 6 billion, it hardly computes--unless it is your relative.

So WHO says up to 55M will die with H1N1

That's a lot of empty houses.

Little factoids slipped away the first time I went.

What hit me this time was all the crazy fauna that got stuck in the tar pit, saber tooths, dire wolves, giant sloths, all lived less than 40,000 years ago. A lot of change happened in not a lot of time, geologically speaking.

@barley,

Maybe they have overestimated it. How many die from regular influenza strains?

Bring back the sabretooth!! Who needs dinosaurs?

Scone, I meant the ones, I think Otis writes about. Mobile groups who use bikes as packhorses. - nova

Those are commuters. Seriously, everybody bikes here, everywhere, all the time. To the grocery store, even. No big deal.

"That's a lot of empty houses."

Not sure - at risk are 3-5 yo's and 45-60....a lot of empty beds, for sure.

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese machinery orders rose more than economists estimated in June, the first gain in four months and the latest sign that the nation’s worst postwar recession is easing.

Bookings, an indicator of capital investment in the next three to six months, rose 9.7 percent from May, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 2.6 percent increase.

The current-account surplus, the nation’s broadest measure of trade, widened for the first time since February 2008 as exports improved, a separate report showed. Economists say the rebound in demand is unlikely to be enough to prompt companies including Toyota Motor Corp. to increase spending on factories and equipment.

“The worst is definitely over in terms of earnings, but the incentive to invest is very limited in a world in which production levels are so low,” said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo.

I lost the game. The hub started out with a 7 letter word, and then he made a 99 point word with the Q doubled and then tripled.

You ever wonder about the popularity of vampires and zombies with the younger generation? Perhaps thats how they see boomers?

They should - that is how EVERY generation see their elders. IE their's isn't the first to worship vampires, occult etc. The original Nosferatu of the 20s, 50s horror flicks, 70s 'Omen' & 'Exorcist'... nothing much changes in the human condition - just new faces playing the same old roles.

"a 99 point word with the Q"

okay calling your bluff! Spell it out

timing lliz, timing...55 million at just this moment when things are stretched drum tight - well the impact may be far out of proportion to a tinch under 1% of the population...ummm, a 'non-linear response'

Being old is at last good for something.

There was a section at the La Brea Tar Pits that had a full sized Sabertoothed Swine. Looked real and it moved it's tail.

Gee Dryfly, way to rain on my deep, incisive, yet thought provoking post.

5 million is a Darwinian trifle.

With 6 billion, it hardly computes--unless it is your relative.

55 million will leave a mark if it is over a one year period... how many died in WW!!... 200MM or something like that spread over six years? We have more people on the planet today than then but if the number is 55MM we'll feel it.

If there was a sabertoothed swine, I missed it.

Barley, Barley, Barley - you def ain't got Scrabble mojo lad - catch the triple word in the corner and land a z or an x on the double letter and you are there...
And for historical reference:
Highest single play (OSPD) – QUIXOTRY 365 by Michael Cresta (MA), 2006.[18][19]
Highest single play (SOWPODS) – CAZIQUES 392 by Karl Khoshnaw.[25]

Scrabble - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Barley (profile) wrote on Sun, 8/9/2009 - 7:05 pm

"a 99 point word with the Q"
okay calling your bluff! Spell it out

I once did QUESTIONS across the bottom starting at D15.

Lemme see (it was the hubs word) quite with the q on the double letter point, and the e ending on the triple, and the e paired with an x tripled. The latter is 27. quite with the doubled q is 24 tripled, making 72. 72 and 27 is 99.

He has been playing that nintendo scrabble incessantly. I shouldn't have put that x there, where it could be tripled.

Obamas in Mexico talking about the effect of flu on trade now.

America's first- and third-largest trade relationships are with Canada and Mexico. All three are partners in the North American Free Trade Agreement, the largest free-trade zone in the world. Closing borders or restricting travel would be very costly for families and businesses on all sides of the borders, an important consideration given the limping economy and the fact that health experts see such actions as pointless in containing the flu's spread.

Re: bikes -- Oregon has a large number of hand-made bike manufacturers, such as these guys. Really stunning craftsmanship:

Rivendell

Inverse correlation between vampires and NYSE. Smile

Google Trends: vampire

Heh. We just had three motorcyclists on a late-night speed run hit two wild boars on Highway 1. Sent 'em (the cyclists) to the hospital, 1 by helicopter. The boars are doa. Real boars, too; some person of wealth imported them from Europe 80 years ago for a hunting preserve down by Monterey. And they didn't stay there.

I guess the California budget deficit will take a hit from this default too. CA should start taxing losses.

LL,

Sounds like your husband is quite adept at verbal origami.

Our boars devolved from pigs. Took a 100 years or so. There was one in
the neighbors back yard some years ago. They are a nuisance at the space center,
which seeks to keep them in check. Need those long toothed catz.

Gee Dryfly, way to rain on my deep, incisive, yet thought provoking post.

Ya but it wasn't rain...

[just ribbing ya :wink:]

Oh, yeah, I'm the dumb one in the family.

"But according to the local paper, most of the foreclosures are due to unemployment, rather than crazy lending."

I have not seen new data but in 2007 Portland had a very high rate of IO/option loans (somewhere in the upper 30s as I recall). The foreclosures in my neighborhood are almost entirely out of state infestors and local flippers.

Boars? White meat grizzlies

We try scrabble a lot, but it is painful. I am a gifted writer (so I have been told), and I suck at scrabble. My wife had a 74 pointer once, can't remember what it was though. I hope we get better with age. Now spades on the other hand. We are quite good at.

I have not seen new data but in 2007 Portland had a very high rate of IO/option loans (somewhere in the upper 30s as I recall). The foreclosures in my neighborhood are almost entirely out of state infestors and local flippers. - y

Any source on that?

Our boars devolved from pigs. Took a 100 years or so.

It took less than 100 years - a relatively small mix of modern pigs carry almost all the genes needed to produce huge wild boars, it just has to get scrambled the right way via selective pressures. Same thing applies to dogs - from domestic lap dog to wild dog [looks like dingos - not wolves] in only a dozen or so generations if the mix of breeding stock is right.

Edit: so if our society 'devolves' do we go back to hairy cavemen? I know some who appear to have a head start.

I used to play spades a lot in jail and detox

ok so shoot me - I dont play scrabble much....

I am terrible at scrabble. I am pretty good at Chess and I have a magic fire breath to dispatch wild boars.

I don't know if the problem can be attributed to those who purchased with less than 20% down. It seems to me that it is the serial refinancing that has caused the problem specially with regard to FNM. In the good old days they had a portfolio or mortgages that were at various points with regard to repayment- i.e. loans that had started at 20% down through a combination principal repayment and home price appreciation were now at much lower loan to value. Thus even with a down turn in prices they still had enough collateral to withstand it. With the refinancing essentially their entire portfolio was that the starting loan to value ratio.

One place to start might be to limit mortgage deduction to just the initial purchase price not subsequent refinancing.

spades. hearts also.

Good night everyone. We are hitting the road for sunny Nebraska in the morning. Have to get some sleep since I am the designated driver first shift. Someone tell Barley what a deck of cards is... Wink

Wonder how many pigs we eat were deviant?

Chess confuses me. Never liked it enough to read a book or
anything.

Spades is kind of like bridge except the trump is always spades, no?

yes. that is it. comrade coinz

Spades is the opposite of hearts. I sometimes play hearts while waiting
for you faint-hearted to post something.

Love Love

@liz,

Never too late to learn chess. Supposedly, Go is the ultimate strategy game, but didn't enjoy it much.

Well, off line, family time.

Think I'll consume a new ipod tomorrow.

Nytol

Nitey-nite from me too.

yum. Ipod steamed or fried?

Smile Love

Vonbek777 - I am a few short of a full deck, but whats a deck and what are cards/ - At least thats what my Ma told me.."You got dealt a few short of a full deck, yes sir e buba!"

Ah chess - My all time fav!! Bar none!!

way too may for the current job market. I don't know of even one of them whose found a new job.

Liz, it's time to go to sleep.

Walk Away ( James Gang )
YouTube -  

We'll be seeing more on this rest of 2009, 2010, 2011 as the lipstick progressively comes off the pig;)

My momma always said "If I could remember who your daddy was I could probably figure out why you be so crazy boy"

Liz, it's time to go to sleep. - N

See nitey nite above. - LL

The Waltons...

Scone,

Can I ask you an intensely personal question?

Did you ever listen to Tanya Tucker?

Scone,

Can I ask you an intensely personal question?

You can ask. I reserve the right to spray obfuscation all over my answer. Wink

Actually, nova, I'm wondering if you're some kind of cousin umpteen times removed, My mother's people are from Newcastle, out beyond Blacksburg.

Polyanna - what kind of machines? Can you tell us? Stamping presses? Paper machines? My head is spinning trying to think of machines so big they can't afford to move them [unless they are so poorly maintained they aren't worth fixing]. Usually 'old iron' is better than 'new iron' once they are revamped w/ modern controls.

crazyv, are you still discussing mortgages? We've moved on to Scrabble and Spades, thanks to that rabble-rouser, LL. Get with the program!

I do think limiting the mortgage deduction to the least risky portion of any loan using a home as collateral is a good idea. Your suggestion was hitting refinancing loans. Mine was hitting any portion of a loan over 80% of the home's price (at the time of the loan). You could combine both ideas:

Limit deductibility of interest on home loans to no more than 80% of the original purchase price. This would have the advantage economically of being a counter-cyclical rule. It doesn't prohibit greater loans, and it doesn't penalize the portion of the loan up to the 80%, but it removes a taxpayer subsidy from just a portion of the loan with high leverage.

Edit: I see you had the same idea, but you allowed 100% on a refi. People could game that by financing at purchase at 80%, and refinancing immediately to 100%.

We could be. Grandpa was sold for a $1 to some people not to far from there.

Surely there's a sabre-toothed pigmen joke in here somewhere?

C

We could be. Grandpa was sold for a $1 to some people not to far from there. - n

You joke*, but my mother actually was "sold" to her grandmother during the Depression, to be her maid. My mother didn't come home until high school. Desperate days.

*Edit: Probably.

Dry,
When I read that comment about large machines idle my brain just filled in "paper board." Could be an assumption on my part but the wood fiber sectors everywhere are totally dysfunctional.

nova, I used to pray in jail for the right judge. Cards?, not so much.

Scone. No joke. I am not even sure what my last name really is.

The Depression was hard for people in the mountains.

Can we see your birth certificate please nova? Are you sure you're a citizen of the commonwealth?

C

Scone. No joke. I am not even sure what my last name really is. - nova

It's when you sound serious that I wonder whether my leg is being pulled. No offense, it's the deadpan humor thing you do.

"The Depression was hard for people in the mountains."

Hearing snippets of the Depression-era family stories here makes it obvious how much easier this recession is. It feels positively cushy to me compared even to what I saw in the 1970's and 1980's.

I always thought that California's Prop. 13 should've forced reassessment at the greater of the original purchase price or the mortgaged amount upon refinance. That would've discouraged using the house as an ATM at least in one major bubble state.

When I read that comment about large machines idle my brain just filled in "paper board."

I also thought maybe 'printing machines' - like newspaper printing machines - pretty useless now after the intertoobz.

TJ, very good suggestion.

I think there were a lot of possible measures, not drastic or unfair, that could have helped a lot. I guess the federal tax ones sound easiest because they apply all across the country nice and uniformly. That's how they got Al Capone, maybe that's how we should have gone after Mozilo and Prince and Fuld etc.! Cut off the mortgage deduction for more than 80% of the house's purchase price. It even has the advantage of a lesser hit on people with low taxable incomes (because they are at a low marginal rate).

Thanks CPG - been there done that & fully understand.

Nova,you can have my registered Alias if you want it,I don't use it any more...

A lot of U.S manufacturing companies are dysfunctional right now at least with regard to their employee counts because:
1. The economy is in shambles
2. The difficulty of competing with low cost countries
3. advances in automation are making equipment obsolete very quickly and also the employees who run that equipment. They have to automate to survive #2.

Hearing snippets of the Depression-era family stories here makes it obvious how much easier this recession is. It feels positively cushy to me compared even to what I saw in the 1970's and 1980's. - PR

To me, it "feels" like a little bit of the 50's, the 70's, and the 80's. nowhere near the horror of the Depression. OTOH, I don't live in the Delta. Or the 3rd world.

Grandpa was sold for a $1 to some people

A dollar doesn't buy what it used to.

From what I've seen so far, Oregon and Portland usually trails other major metro areas by one to two years. This time next year it's likely to look real ugly.

Grandpa was sold for a $1 to some people

A dollar doesn't buy what it used to.


You didn't know his grandpa Smile

scone,parts of the central valley and the inner cities are looking pretty rough.And things are getting worse where I live,the local high end supermarket just installed metal cages around their outdoor soda machines.Think a nicer whole foods/andronico's.It is on hwy 116 and a lot of Russian River traffic goes by.The Russian River is an open sewer this time of year and I am amazed that people actually swim in it,lake merritt in oakland is cleaner.

From what I've seen so far, Oregon and Portland usually trails other major metro areas by one to two years. This time next year it's likely to look real ugly. - c

You would think so, but people have been saying this for several years, and it hasn't happened yet, I would like to get a statistic on the number of mortgages in Oregon, and compare that to the population. I'm thinking housing is so expensive here, there were fewer mortgages to start with, compared to other states.

a lot of Russian River traffic goes by. = TS

I used to live in Rohnert Park. Small world.

Just returned fro behind The Orange Curtain, my sisters wedding in Newport Beach.
Most are still aimlessly wandering and celebrating during the collapse, but cracks are everywhere.
Empty rental space in Laguna, nieces and nephews struggling to find employment, etc.
But, staying in South Laguna overlooking the ocean, the clueless haven't a clue that they will soon be in a machete moshpit.

adornosghost, what was the gossip about house prices in Orange County?

Scone,1980's tract homes in ok shape sold there for 600x monthly rent in 2005,more in '06.

The people I was staying with outright own their house, and beside, they are Maoist (I know, living in a million dollar + house and being Maoist is somewhat detached from reality).
I know my new brother in law is struggling, being in the development community.
From my perspective, most did not want to go there.
I have a friend who does hardwood floors for the rich and famous, and this is the first time ever when he has not had constant work, but has been booked solid recently.

Adorno,most of the "Communists" I have known were quite comfortable,and it did not matter to which sect they belonged.

One had a fulltime Fibbie sidekick for awhile until his paymaster figured things out.Being a CI can be a soft if scummy Gig.

Tom-
Yea, this animosity between the Trots, Maoist, and Kovel type communist is quite amusing.

Sometimes it's hard to find some really basic statistic-- I'd like to know how many owners, and how many renters there are in Oregon-- and not just mortgages, because some percentage of those are paid off. The all-knowing Google hasn't yielded this one up.

"Sales tax revenues for the first three months of the year fell nearly 30% from a year earlier, according to the most recent data available from the city of Newport Beach."

LA Times story: On Balboa Island, vacationers live large -- latimes.com

Anecdotal: This is also consistent with orders from retailers to the suppliers that I know. My folks tell me that June was good, but July fell off a cliff.

Thanks, Rob Dawg!

So 67.2% are owners (why does that number seem suspiciously precise?), and therefore about 1/3 are renters, or homeless. So total population is about 3.5 million, say 3 people per household. So maybe somewhere around 680,000 owners. Some percentage of those homes are free and clear. So how many owners are at risk for foreclosure?

patientrenter: in terms of tax policies, i believe that the 2/5 rule and the 1031s were a much bigger drivers of the bubble than mortgage deduction. those two provisions practically scream "house flipper".

"Adorno,most of the "Communists" I have known were quite comfortable,and it did not matter to which sect they belonged. "

In this country, communism is largely a luxury of the well-educated and moderately privileged. The only lifelong commie I ever knew was descended from Korean nobility; had a fling as a yippie in the '60s, made a career in the states as a civil-service technocrat, retired to Lafayette. All hail the revolution.

The only sincere commie I ever met was a red diaper baby,and upper middle class.A very nice guy for the most part,but not one to question recieved "wisdom".

Hi, how ur mortgage rates?

MTGEFNCL

A law that required down payments of 20% or more in home lending, with regulations and enforcement to catch the cheats?

how do your implement such a law?

Trivial. If during foreclosure proceedings the lender cannot document that the borrower put 20% down, then their lien on the property is declared null and void.

You would get 100% compliance instantly without the need for any enforcement.

I shared an office with an obnoxious know-it-all who happened to be a serious socialist, the type who goes to conferences of international solidarity and marries in the party. I knew he had a kid but never saw her. One day I meet him and his wife and their precious little six-year-old. "Oh, a little socialist," I say witlessly.

"Say 'Power to the People,' honey," Socialist Dad says, beaming.

"Don't wanna." Sulking

"She usually says it with a big salute," Socialist Mom says proudly, demonstrating.

You know, if you take the letters in the word socialist and scramble them hard enough, apparently you can spell 'bourgeois."

Basel: "in terms of tax policies, i believe that the 2/5 rule and the 1031s were a much bigger drivers of the bubble than mortgage deduction. those two provisions practically scream "house flipper"."

I agree they contributed, Basel, but I lived in one of the bubbliest areas, and there were otherwise sensible people buying small houses to live in for a long time at prices that were absolutely incredible in comparison to their ability to save. They put down very little. A lot of them. Most of them. One of their psychological arguments for doing it was the interest deduction. Removing deductibility of that last 20% of the price would have made them think a little harder, and try to save more, and lower the price. If it's not strong enough, then just increase it to 25%.

diemos: "If during foreclosure proceedings the lender cannot document that the borrower put 20% down, then their lien on the property is declared null and void."

I love it. A little brutal, perhaps. But at least it shows you can do it. Refining it to be a little less punitive while fully effective could be done, I'm sure. (But I enjoy your version.)

"You know, if you take the letters in the word socialist and scramble them hard enough, apparently you can spell 'bourgeois.""

My g'father was a professional socialist politician (not in the US). Socialism is a dirty word in the US, but not everywhere. Many mainstream European political parties consider themselves socialist.

But I know what you mean about hardline leftists - they are all extremists, and have more in common with hardline rightwingers than with the rest of us. I find them both unpleasant. I also notice that people who fall into one category often fall into the opposite category later in their lives. As I say, I think it's just an unpleasant extremism and intolerance streak in their character, and the political wing they express support for is almost incidental.

Is California that giant sucking sound Perot kept screeching about ?

"Everyone recognizes that H1N1 is going to be a challenge for all of us, and there are people who are going to be getting sick in the fall and die," said John O. Brennan, the U.S. deputy national security adviser for counterterrorism and homeland security. "The strategy and the effort on the part of the governments is to make sure we . . . collaborate to minimize the impact."

Northern Hemisphere Braces as Swine Flu Heads North - washingtonpost.com

Another one bites the dust.

Casa Madrona Hotel & Spa, Sausalito's largest hotel situated in the heart of the city, will be up for grabs at a foreclosure auction Tuesday morning on the steps of San Rafael City Hall after owners defaulted on their loan.

Sausalito's Casa Madrona on auction block - Marin Independent Journal

On Bernanke's reappointment: 100% GUARANTEED to happen. Obama won't do ANYTHING that might upset the stock markets. You guys always joke that Obama's in the pockets of the bankers, but that's not exactly true. He worships at the altar of Mama DOW.

Danny,

Well... that means Ben's appointment hinges upon what direction the DOW is headed at the time, doesn't it?

Danny about bernanke and the market

they may like helicopter ben

but they would love larry s

OT: History International (cable) tonight had psychological profiles comparing Stalin with Hitler - many things in common from their youth and with women, starting with major physical abuse by fathers and adoring mothers..

I couldn't decide which one was Limbaugh and which was Hannity. Strange how that works Big smile.

On Portland real estate, especially rentals: The WSJ had an article this spring on youth magnet cities (Portland and Austin).

This drizzly city along the Willamette River has for years been among the most popular urban magnets for college graduates looking to start their careers in a small city of like-minded folks. Now the jobs are drying up, but the people are still coming. The influx of new residents is part of the reason the unemployment rate in the Portland metropolitan area has more than doubled to 11.8% over the past year, and is now above the national average of 8.9%.

So our young LEGAL immigrants are making the unemployment situation look bad. But they're happy to come, and double, tripple and quadruple share an apartment.

Lots of students here as well: Portland State Univ. is now substantially bigger than Univ. of Oregon, and many other colleges as well (Univ. of Portland, Lewis & Clark, et. al.) Many work part time paying for college. But they all need a rental place, and that demand, added to the Cali older folks migrating north for lower cost of living and less hassle in their lives makes for a very steady influx.

Oh, and Multinomah Country voted Dem in 2004 and 2008 at the rate of about 80%.

"Chase - now there's a bank that is always there for you."

Theme song to TV ad : Michelle Branch, Everywhere : "Im not alone"

So, let's see. People with a clue, older folks who just saw all their money disappear, are jaded. Banks are a scam. So let's target the Gen Y twitter crowd, who always needs someone there for them. I mean, how would they know that there have been for about 20 years, banks that are always there for you. It's called an ATM. The rest of the apparatus, there 24/7 to hit you with fees.

Basically, setting up the next group of idiots to be fleeced.

Am I the only one sickened?

Tom Stone and Adorno...
you're touching on the central defect in a communist post industrial society something Marx in 1849 could not
imagine, the rise of the technocratic class - think Albert Speer. currently, the Chinese are trying to raise the number
of technocrats in the Party to around 20%. it was this class (like financing the samzidat) that brought down the Soviet Union. did they live well, have country houses, a lot of perks... you betcha. but what they lacked was policy influence.
the only solution to that defect was what Mao tried to do and Pol Pot did do...

"Chase - now there's a bank that is always there for you."

Yeah, the company that just canceled my credit card because my 735 FICO and perfect payment record didn't cut the mustard.

nice post.

yes, and don't forget the upshot of continuing layoffs - the endless unwinding of the Henry Ford effect, a century later.

a middle class endlessly hammered by layoffs, tuition, health care, energy and food costs really doesn't make for a great consumer base.

TPTB thought that china and india could fill the breach and produce a new global consumer class. what happens when their middle class starts to disappear, too, nipped in the bud?

French Mistake
I take it that you have never worked in a design studio before when you say:
"Space in an office is not required to do anything like civil engineering, architecture, landscape architecture or a myriad of other things. Laptops loaded with AutoCAD, Acrobat, Messenger with a broadband have made these all irrelevant."
granted, AutoCAD is very important , in fact I argued as early as '82 that it was the wave of the future to some very big wig architects....

That's funny, every Capitalist I've ever met was a rich bastard who thought all laborers were lazy slobs.

But why generalize...

Recall a blogger in recent days wondering where the $23 trillion debt number came from with regard to the costs to date of the financial crisis...
One possible sourec...

"One measure of the post-Lehman panic is that the government ended up offering to guarantee all kinds of things that in any other environment would have seemed safe. When Neil Barofsky, the inspector general for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, totaled up all possible federal guarantees at $23.7 trillion recently, he included assets like Treasury bills in money market funds and mortgages guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac."

HIGH & LOW FINANCE; A Retreat From Global Banking - NY Times

Morning all. So what kind of week do we have here? Asia mixed overnight, Nikki and HK putting on beef, not so fun on China and Kospi charts, US and Yerp futures solidly elmo, USD sliding against my usual reference quad in Asia-Pac, and VIXy saying this will be a September to remember, from boomberger:

VIX Signals S&P 500 Swoon as September Approaches (Update4) - Bloomberg.com

Also cites $3.5T cash sitting on the sidelines.

But hark, through cool morning a sound and beat echoes forth, can it be....? Ba, ba, ba BONDS, ba, ba...

Oh yes, the longer bonds get a thorough physical on Wed and Thurs to see what shape they're in.

C

Green shoots on the Lake:

Daley's nephew lays plans for S. Loop, Chicago Sun-Times

You could say that pd stands for "pan, dead" and be right in this case.

One of my coworkers, his divorced father, and his new wife (who was also a divorcee) sold their original homes in 2007 or so.

They then bought one really really expensive house in rancho palos verdes (socal) around the same time. It was a ridiculous home with a subzero and a $2500 stove etc. they had sold their torrance and redondo beach homes for good money around the peak of the market though in 2006 and 2007.

Anyhow, they moved to oregon this year and bought a house there, and ALMOST got a sucker to buy the other house. but that guy's financing fell through.

They are both fairly well off professional types, but seeing as they had a large amount of their net worth tied up in that mega house (Which probably cost a million and a half who knows) and its just rotting in southern california that sounds troubling. I told my coworker to tell his dad to just get rid of it as fast as he can even if it seems like he'll lose money on it. At least they can live retired in oregon for dirt cheap...

what does this cash on the sidelines nonsense mean anyway.

it says that its double the percentage of the peak of 2007. Of course it would be less a percentage in a rising market.

What is the "cash on the sidelines " percentage in a horrible market. like say post dot com 2001?

Does anyone have that number? Why is it such a bad thing for money to be in bonds or short term treasuries as compared to the oh so awesome, lets dump it off to the next sucker ponzi scheme casino known as the stock market?

On a personal note as a child of the 80 (i was born in 81), I basically have heard nothing but "throw money in stock market" my entire life. I mean the dow is like 1000% higher since i was born right? And for a while that worked out ok, and then last year and the year before I lost more than half my life savings just as I had gotten my career reasonably going and was really saving at a good rate. I even dollar cost averaged!!! they said it was a good idea, everyone did. My parents, my relatives, my friends, and cnbc!. I am glad i'm not some 65 year old. i'd probably hva ejumped off a building or something.

That said, I have saved up a good deal of money again. AND HELL NO IT IS NOT GOING BAC KIN THAT MESS. Part of me feels bad i missed out on this march to august "rally". I got out last december. But i'd rather take my money and buy a car that is completely impractical and go drinking and club hopping. My money is stayin gon the sidelines for a long long long time.

John Hussman, conservative and thought-provoking as usual in his Monday morning post, tracks and comments on consensus recovery forecasts:

Hussman Funds

. . . while his colleague William Hester finds some difficulty reconciling GDP projections with projected earnings, and charts the problem nicely:

Hussman Funds: Earnings Growth Forecasts May Require a Robust Economic Recovery 

The chart comparing change in spending relative to change in income/employment is quite fascinating.

From 1970-1980 they were pretty much the much the same. Beginning in 1980 the change in spending as consistently been higher than the change in income/employment. The difference coming out of savings and increased debt. If regression to the mean kicks in we can expect to see change in spending being lower than the change in income as people save more and borrow less. If that is the case then we are set to see another big down leg in consumer spending.

Hussman Funds: Earnings Growth Forecasts May Require a Robust Economic Recovery

Maybe OT, however, good site for small gardens in urban environment-square foot gardening.

Welcome To My Garden! | Square Foot Gardening

wow i just saw cramer on morning joe. i just wanted some news for god sakes.

and he was on morning joe, saying the big winners were unitedhealth and aetna. SEriously he cant even pump on just his own show. He is on other shows now.

CRE borrowers are like non-owned occupied RRE borrowers - they will make rational decisions on whether or not to walk away. It is dollars and sense. Also, many of the "borrowers" are bankruptcy remote entities from the overall parents (which is why a mall owner can through certain malls into BK and not others). It is the equivalent of a RRE investor holding each property under a separate corporate entity.

Owner-occupied RRE borrowers will be more wrapped up in emotions.

CRE has the potential to be a bigger issue for banks because of this. Rational defaults will happen much more quickly. I am guessing most CRE investors are waiting to see if office/retail demand will turn around quickly. If it does not, the keys will be mailed in.

In the early 70's I was at a real estate lending class while working for Citibank. One of the cases was a building on Ave of the Americas that had cost $110 MM to build and was now in foreclosure. We were asked what we would be prepared to bid. Not knowing much at the time some of us bid $50MM others got cheap and bid $25MM. The instructor then proceeded to run the numbers and show that you would actually have to be paid to take over the building because of its negative cash flow. It was very illustrative.

If some as some have remarked the nature of office work has changed - a lot of these "cheap buildings" may in fact turn out to be white elephants even if they are given away.


hans (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Mon, 8/10/2009 - 7:21 am

what does this cash on the sidelines nonsense mean anyway.
A lot of folks refer to money in money market funds, short term govt. bond funds, etc. as "cash on the sidelines". Find a number for that and ratio it to the value of the stock market and you get your percentage.


crazyv (profile) wrote on Mon, 8/10/2009 - 8:25 am

If some as some have remarked the nature of office work has changed - a lot of these "cheap buildings" may in fact turn out to be white elephants even if they are given away.

The CRE version if a home in the City of Detroit Wink

But hark, through cool morning a sound and beat echoes forth, can it be....? Ba, ba, ba BONDS, ba, ba...

Oh yes, the longer bonds get a thorough physical on Wed and Thurs to see what shape they're in.

Turn over your portfolio and cough.

"How many people were specialists in operating just that type of equipment?"

Thankfully we're reprogrammable. Smile

The only infinitely reprogrammable robots capable of being mass-produced by unskilled labour.

As we know that in California there are allot of offices But McGuire company is a good one as i have knowledge but the threaten about the to default loan is quite important ! so i think we have to see further details carefully in be care full on this Friday !
Reverse mortgage calculator 

well on that morning Joe must ask from that crammer that how he can help you you to pump up! and how quickly it's possible !

Reverse mortgage calculator 

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