I mentioned my views on the second stimulus on the previous thread.
Now Laura Tyson weighs in

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy may be on the cusp of a recovery and the impact of the nation’s stimulus plan should increase this quarter, said Laura Tyson, an outside adviser to President Barack Obama.
“The numbers suggest that the rate of downturn has declined, we may have hit stability, we may be in the beginning of an upturn,” Tyson said. “The consensus is for a slow recovery, with risks around the downside.”
There’s no reason for a second stimulus package now, Tyson, 62, said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur today. It’s too early to say the improvement in July jobs data is a trend, and declining housing values and an overhang of unsold homes pose threats to a recovery.

In today's Houston Chronicle:
.
Experts estimate that a staggering 98,000 people die from preventable medical errors each year. More Americans die each month of preventable medical injuries than died in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
Within health care hides massive, avoidable death toll | Dead by mistake

Obama to Summers:

"Wrap sum bubble gum around a bullion cube and put it on Paul's plate."

Krugman:

"I didn't know taffy came in roast beef flavor."

Are you referring to calling the bottom as the mathematical certainty or to the question of whether there will be a double-dip?

I predict the seventh stim-pak before 2012.

Last comment on the medical frou frou - there is a large body of work examing the stong correlation between the increase in utilization rates for testing facilities and physician owenrship of said testing facilities - just sayin'

Krugman:
Krugman said in June the U.S. may emerge from its downturn by September. In a June 9 speech, he said damage from the U.S. recession may persist “for a very long time,” with no clear engine for renewed growth.

That makes sense.

Pigged from last thread...

"Mot of us live live in cities, and a policy of letting houses burn would be mad. "

Large numbers of us in the NE live in suburbs and exurbs...and these are the rules we live by. To your point that the discussion was about health care...the disinclination to pick up the slack for deadbeat neighbors is part of the american grain...I think that's the underlying fury that those town hall meetings are exposing. Any argument about public health safety is going to break against the rocks of over-burdened working stiffs ( I include myself) having to pay for others while employment prospects and the future looks grim.
.

Yes, people are scared. And as they join the ranks of the unemployed, they will become those 'deadbeats'...

Methinks retail sales (ex-autos) will be bad going forward. Lotsa new car payments out there. To me, Costco and UPS are the two best indicators out there. One for the consumer and one for business. And they are both hurting.

energycon - Kinda makes ya think whats appropiate - spend'n money on a war in some other part of the world or providing some level of health care for those that might pay taxes?

.I think that's the underlying fury that those town hall meetings are exposing.

Underlying fury = astroturf...other than that what you say makes sense.

My current thinking is some very low level of growth through to 2011, regardless of stimulas package..

When government workers are laid off, do they lose health care benefits as well, or do they have a period of carry-over? Do they then have to pay for COBRA, or do they have a different deal? anyone know?

COBRA - same as anyone else.

//Picking on a previous thread everybody gets the generic ear drop at $10 but only those who have paid for insurance get the $119. ear drops.//

If both meds work the same, why prescribe, or use, the $119.00 meds? Why increase the cost for those that have insurance? This makes no sense to me.

I suppose he means technically, a third stimulus; first being the rebate checks everyone got, second being the Obama one.

Does he write this with an algorithm?
current number of stimulus = x;
"The economy has bottomed out, but we'll still need a x+1 stimulus";

$1200 to $1500 mo COBRA is equal to a house payment. No way could someone on unemployment afford that cost.

My perception is that many folks have the wrong idea of what kind of care you can receive at an ER, regardless of insurance or payment.

At all the hospitals I've seen (mostly Univ. affiliated), they have prominent signs that say something like: Under federal law we are obligated to provide stabilizing treatment to the uninsured. They don't say 'full' treatment. Many people get the stabilization (bleeding stops) but without insurance or payment and then sent on your way, you don't get admitted for the recommended treatment. And without insurance, the fees for the regular treatment are often 50-100% higher than the fees for those insured (because the insurers negotiate the fee payment). So it is a double whammy.

Right... the freefall is over so let's continue with US economy that's dependent on financial engineering machinations, increased debt, and shuffling around assets ( first and foremost houses ) all topped off with a jobless recovery for the faux American dream!

Zero 10 Year US Job Creation
Zero 10 Year US Job Creation | The Big Picture

Hunky Dory

http://kunstler.com/blog/2009/08/hunky-dory.html
Here, in the dog days of summer, it seems to me that the situation in the USA is so fundamentally bad, so unpromising, so booby-trapped for failure, that I wonder if there has ever been a society so badly deluded as ours. We're prisoners of our wishes, living in a strange dream-time, oblivious to the forces gathering at the margins of our vision, lost in a wilderness of our own making.

I think to describe a consumer that is saving 5% of their income rather than 0% as a decline in demand is the problem. That is just a reversion to the normal.

I think Keyesnian solutions would work if he had a consumer that was saving more than they should be. Then one could make the argument that the consumer would be in a position to take over (after confidence has been restored) when the stimulus ends. However, if the consumer is even at the higher savings is stillsaving less than they should (as CR has pointed out an aging population needs to save more) it is hard to see how a Keynesian solution can work. Of course if one believes in the discredited theory that savings don't matter as long as asset prices are going up then no problem.

Unconventional thinking would be to focus on the excess of supply rather than the shortfall in demand as getting the economy back to stability. Seems to me the answer to tiring horse is not to whip it harder. We should be thinking of higher not lower interest rates to weed out the inefficient and bring supply and demand back into balance.

I'll be curious to hear Krugman's rationale explaining the current bear market rally, after the double-dip. But who am I to talk. I ain't no stinkin economist.

Gables have supporting X beams, straps always required.

No particle board allowed in south Florida. Roofs or anywhere else.
Inspectors scared to be bought off, at least for a while. Windows to meet
minimum specs. Many built a safe room after Andrew. We built a "safer
room". I don't have all the details. Strongest code in the US in South
Fla.

Krugman apparently is trying to catch more flies with honey than vinegar -- and thus in this deep genuflection to Obama, he is pleading for the mercy of more stimulus and probably a high profile source of future income (in the jobless recovery). Can we say amen....

I understand that people can be upset and angry by the real, objective facts. Some just don't want any government intervention in healthcare (until they get Medicare, and then they love it, but think it comes from a private firm).

My personal fury is with those who deliberately lie and distort what is being considered (the optional paid conversation with an MD on end-of-life issues, versus 'death tribunals' (followed by Soylent Green) that the Republican operatives and lobbyists are peddling. This is just fear mongering, without any factual basis. The Obama is a Moslem Nazi is just being thrown to to the public to arouse the hatred for "those people". But it is working, just like it worked in the mid-thirties in Germany when people were economically insecure and politically fearful.

Amazing how many pass off employer health care benefits as Free. They are not free. They are untaxed compensation that has been abused. If one has a responsible savings including 6+ months that includes compensation like health insurance the paying for COBRA is not a bitch. Maybe you Mc Mansion is to big also.

Obama's approval numbers are in a free fall among independants. Astroturf, playing the race card is good political spin, nothing else. Read Frank Rich's column for the underlying fury.

I've seen plenty of recent exposes on some of that fury - GOP or conservative operatives who 'inserted' into the town hall crowd - arranged for others of like mind [mostly local - not saying they were outsiders] to come then staged the protests even down to the canned chants. That is astro turf BIG TIME my friend.

The falling approval ratings is the angst... it is there but that was not what you saw at the town halls.

BTW - I know many folks who have falling support for O but not because he moves too fast but because he isn't moving... they want far more comprehensive health care reform, far more regulation of the banking & FIRE industries - not less. They want out of Iraqistan now.

Hell if O went single payer, heavy handed on the FIRE reforms & left Iraqistan tomorrow his ratings would increase - with the left leaning who mostly voted for him. The astroturfers never supported him anyway - forget about them.

We will have an EKG shaped "recovery."

dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sun, 8/9/2009 - 8:39 am

... the 'fury' we saw at those town halls on the other hand was 99% orchestrated. Everyone knows that - well everyone maybe except the MSM.

The MSM needs an excuse to explain the plummeting approval ratings of their choices for governance. Sure, the venting is no modern day "Common Sense" but it sreves a very important purpose of exposing the "town hall meetings" for being every bit as much political theatre. The groundwork was laid with the TARP vote in the teeth of 300:1 opposition. That set the standard that made access and forum and volume more important than democracy or republic. Rubbing the people's noses in that fact is having obvious consequences.

Always like Donovan. Singing songs of .

What prize did Paul get? This is far from over, I'm afraid.

Which one make you smaller?

Obama is paying the price for his arrogance. His belief that his supporters were a cult and could be swayed by a speech from his high and mighty. One only has to see how he treated his campaign staff after his election. Many of his key staff weren't even invited to the inauguration. His argument - that was decided by Congress - bull shit. A word from the President elect would have changed everything. He just didn't credit his victory to them or anybody else but himself.

He is trying to build political enthusiasm by appealing to moderates. Well with due respect to moderates they have the vigor and enthusiasm of a bucket of piss. Obama's bailout of the financial industry and several tacks to the middle have turned off the activist part of the base. For somebody with a handful of degrees he isn't as smart as the former bone head President who knew one thing you have to keep the activists with you if you are going to achieve anything.

The MSM needs an excuse to explain the plummeting approval ratings of their choices for governance. Sure, the venting is no modern day "Common Sense" but it sreves a very important purpose of exposing the "town hall meetings" for being every bit as much political theatre. The groundwork was laid with the TARP vote in the teeth of 300:1 opposition. That set the standard that made access and forum and volume more important than democracy or republic. Rubbing the people's noses in that fact is having obvious consequences.

I agree.

BTW have you ever been asked to one of those 'Town Halls'? I was by my GOP congressman [yes there are one or two of those left here in Minnie]... the local GOP thought I was 'sympathetic' since I called my then GOP senator so often during TARP votes [toad voted for it anyway then lost to Franken]. I was on their database somewhere... none of my 'union leaning' blue collar neighbors got invites. Ya those 'meetings' are representative [not]...

There is nothing but dead vermin in the 'middle of the road'. O will learn that the hard way. The Bushies understood that viscerally.

Watch out for those rogue waves when you're fishing in the trough.
Rogue wave - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Dunno. I took them all.

.

MLM wrote: "IOW, it's ALL astroturf now. The right wingers are astroturfing the left wingers' town hall astroturf. All circus, all the time." So do we get free bread with our circus? Oh, wait we are. Health care. . . .

OMG, I'll flush right now.

For somebody with a handful of degrees he isn't as smart as the former bone head President who knew one thing you have to keep the activists with you if you are going to achieve anything.

C'mon, don't call Karl Rove a bonehead - he might be evil, but a bonehead he is not

Is that I'll flush right, now
or
I'll flush immediately?

"We have the economy built around certain trends, such as personal consumption expenditures (growing at a very steady pave over the past 15-20 years), freely available and cheap credit, etc. All of these parameters are being re-adjusted now, and that creates a huge shock to the economy. Personal consumption this year will be $600-700 Billion less than the trend level. To prevent the economy going into the tailspin and to break the negative feedback loop one has to apply Keynesian stimulus.
The fact that the consumers have to save more and stop spending more that they earn is a separate issue. That's the unconventional part of the problem and the challenge is how to tackle both of them at the same time."

Mr M, this makes some sense. And I am fine accepting that some Keynesian stimulus may be efficient because it relieves immediate pain while giving people who need to change what they do time to figure out what to do next.

But I don't think it makes sense to separate completely the problem of a sudden drop in consumption from the problem of insufficient savings / trade deficits. That's a bit like saying that, for someone earning $100 and spending $105 a day, avoiding a drop in spending to $100 per day is unrelated to their debt growing by $5 a day. The boost in spending is just to give people a little more time to change their lives. The building imbalances really do need to be dealt with.

I'm sorry to post and run, but now I'm being called elsewhere.

Please just understand that the entire issue is far more complex than doctors
and I would argue that doctors have about as much control in American Healthcare as bank tellers have in American Finance.

just my $0.02.

Are there any pilots on the board who could describe a tail spin and how one gets out of it?

YTL - if you're still here for a second - kids' PCP is a NP. I don't like that at all.

that is your right- but people should have the right to chose between a PCP who is NP in exchange for a lower price or see an MD at a higher price.

I'm sure the cost savings is being seen by someone along the way, but not the consumer.

Well the docs didn't band together to stop this nonsense and they are not
doing so now.

Being older, and having to visit the dr more often, I am underwhelmed.

There are lots of good treatments out there. But no co ordination whatsoever.
I need more than 15 minute blocks of time to trust anyone. I suspect that's why
many are non compliant. I wouldn't want a kid of mine to be a dr for all the
tea in china.

And getting the right treatment is a crapshoot. You need to check stuff on
the internet. You need a defender in the hospital at all times.

Tax sugar, tax white flour, expecially tax high fructose corn syrup.

Give veggie and fruit coupons with the money. Stir, rinse, repeat.

bollocks

Say you were walking through the desert, starving and dying of thirst and came upon a restuarant, sat down and ordered a glass of water and a taco. You didn't notice there were no prices on the menu because you were fucking dying. You are served and life returns to your body. The bill comes and it is $30,000, half of your year's salary. You protest. They ask if you have starvation- dehydration insurance. When you say no they ask you to prove you cant pay $30,000 with your bank statements and tax returns yet this is our health cartel in a nutshell.

MAKE DOCS POST A MENU LIKE McDONALDS!

here's a million dollar idea:

Docmenu.com, have call centers call every doc in a city and ask for their price, then post the prices. Charge docsters to update their prices.

$118 ear drops anyone?

First of all, I don't know why BSR didn't thank the dr. for the $118 eardrop prescription and then chuck it, just filling the antibiotic prescription. I would've done that reflexively.

2nd of all, my 86 yr. old father complained recently that his stress test at the local hospital, which he reports the intern told him would cost him $200 plus change, resulted in a bill to him of $10,000, and that he "has" to pay it because he always pays his bills and he's not going to quit paying them now. Said it was his last $10,000.

I argued with him of course, stubborn ol guy, and he said his lawyer told him to send them $x per month (50? 100?) and see what happens. Of course that would be fine.

He's confused in general. I think that's pretty close to taking advantage of the elderly.

When you take a flight and put your life in a pilot's hands the pilot can not come up to you after the flight and ask how much you made last year before deciding what to charge you. Yet this is exactly what docsters do when you put your life in their hands.

People are all up for price controls in health care.

I'm for PRICE DISCOVERY!!!!!!!

END SECRET PRICES before your soul turns to cancer.

One of the pieces of the jig-saw puzzle still missing, is a tsunami of cheap and easy credit to get the unemployed folks panicking to buy new cars and homes, so they can all get way ahead of the next bubbles and curves and out buy their next door neighbors (who are in denial also).

16th of June, Chinese stocks are going up
And I'm coming down with some new Asian virus
Ju Ju man, Ju Ju man
Doc says you're fine, or dying
Please
Nine 0 nine, St John Divine, on the line, my pulse is fine
But I'm running down the road like loose electricity
While the band in my head plays a striptease
YouTube - U2 - BREATHE "LIVE" - 2009 No Line On The Horizon, David Letterman Show

"If Big Mamma Obama can create a national medical records database to keep track of everyone's private little health nasties surely they can create a PRICE DATABASE.
We have the technology."

That is correct. YTL stated that doctors have little influence over the delivery of health care, but that is not true. Doctors lobby very hard to increase the flow of total dollars into health care, and they lobby even harder to prevent transparency around the quality of their services and pricing (just as hospitals do).

There are really two approaches to making health care more efficient. One is the approach we use for almost everything else in our lives, like food. We let a wide variety of people provide it, and we have basic rules around quality and transparent pricing, and we all pay for the full cost in a very free and open exchange. Competition and transparency and a little regulation drives down costs and drives up quality. The other approach is to apply central management controls. We do this today in health care through insurance companies and Medicare. Consumers don't care much about costs, and don't see much about the quality. Instead we rely on professional managers to study that and make our
cost/benefit decisions for us.

I realize it's probably too late now, but I would like to see a lot more of the "food" model, and a lot less of the central management model. Only catastrophic-cost care, or maybe even only emergency care, is managed more efficiently by a central mechanism.

After serving in a military medical support role and working my way through college in two different hospitals, seen quite a bit of the medical industrial complex...the incentive structure is at issue, along with earnings expectations, access control to medical education by the AMA to support same ( in the name of quality control, natch), physician ownership of testing facilities they utilize, medical errors and the atrocious record of doctors regulating themselves (they are 'MoT' as a pedi I once dated used to say - 'Member of Tribe') need to be added to the list.

Frank Rich Is Obama Punking Us?
Op-Ed Columnist - Is Obama Punking Us? - NYTimes.com
Wow if he is writing stuff like this then Obama could be toast!

Dryfly at 11:51--yup--O has tried to placate his enemies--foolish and time consuming. He never was a "liberal," the media painted him as such because of race. Everything in the US gets clouded by racism--H Rap Brown was right.

OT Noise Alert!

Bloody Marys.
Should I add some extra horseradish or not?

Now back to the regular programming!

How come I couldn't find out how much it would cost to get
Vaccination shots with no insurance at dr's office. Seems a
simple question. They would give the shots; they would bill
my son.

This might dampen the recoveryless recovery.

The countries that make up the G20 grouping will face a combined budget deficit of 10.2pc of GDP in 2009 − the biggest since the Second World War. Although the biggest will be faced by the US, with 13.5pc of GDP, Britain also faces an 11.6pc deficit and Japan a 10.3pc one.

IMF puts total cost of crisis at £7.1 trillion - Telegraph

Otis,
right on PE ratios and right on price discovery for doctors, hospitals and meds.
End separate state rules for health insurance as well, and throw it open to the market.
Price transparency, everywhere and always.

"There is nothing but dead vermin in the 'middle of the road'. O will learn that the hard way. The Bushies understood that viscerally."

I have read this several times in the political history books -- in tumultuous times, the people who try to stay in the middle get squashed. You go one way, or the other. The Bushies tried the one way, and the Repubs are still there.

Someone else made a similar comment here a few days ago; that the Repubs are dominated by the far right, but the Dems have the left and moderate-conservatives. He posited that the moderate-conservatives would separate, subsequently get crushed, and leave the stage for an all-out confrontation between liberal left and far right. And far, far right doesn't particularly believe in the rules of democracy, so it it will get ugly. I think that's prescient.

The middle of the road is only safe when traffic's light and the drunks aren't out yet.

what you are describing is not capitalism. more like corporatism, fascism, cronyism... mafioso - perhaps.

good post on the limitations of american medicine.

when will we wake up from the shared shame of neglecting our own. In what century will we buuild a memorial to the homeless and those bright minds and good souls we lost to the Death Care Cartel, as we do for disaster victims, massacre victims, holocaust victims and soldiers today. In what century will we build a memorial to the dead victims of the death care cabal.

Imagine the productivity lost to this. Imagine the bankruptcies caused by this. It's easy if you try. Imagine a world where we care for one another. Imagine the value of each person's feelings being equal, each person's pain being equal. Imagine the surplus value of society being spent to improve life instead of being paid in blackmail to the fraudsters of abstract finance. Imagine a world where the PRICE OF MEDICINE is the same for everyone!

"It's like arranging for a loan and then booking it as income..."

See China's 8% GDP growth.

For otishertz

YouTube - Imagine

Enron was just a test run for manipulating Global Energy Supply.
RE: Iraq.
Drove oil up to almost $150 a bbl.

Mr M, if dealing with the imbalances is necessary, then surely we need to inject less liquidity than we are doing now. Stocks have increased by 50% since March. Risk spreads have returned to their bubble levels. Interest rates are at their lowest levels in 30 years, even though we have yawning budget and trade deficits. Down payment reuirements on (FHA) home loans are as low as they've been in at least 30 years. Surely we've already overdone the "just one more drink" part of the cure.

otishertz, you won't get transparency in pricing until you first remove the system we have now of moving most of our payments for health care through insurance companies and Medicare. Try convincing the populace of that change!

Interesting Read:
FRBSF Economic Letter: U.S. Household Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth (2009-16, 5/15/2009) 
With Charts!

" patientrenter (profile) wrote on Sun, 8/9/2009 - 9:39 am

otishertz, you won't get transparency in pricing until you first remove the system we have now of moving most of our payments for health care through insurance companies and Medicare. Try convincing the populace of that change!"

I thought I already was trying to convince people to shut down the health insurance scam.

Soybeans are garbage and they are not good for you in any way! They increase estrogen and decrease nutritional absorption. If yah wanna look and feel like a cow, eat plenty of soy products. Eat bean sprouts instead and prepare your immune systems for H1N1. This was a public service message.

A guy I know is a doctor who works for the AMA. Speaking only for himself, he believes that health care is a utility. I've been thinking about all that implies..wow.

We're seeing a freefall being stopped by new bubbles, inflation and easy credit.

It is an exact repeat of the 2002 "recovery".

Same trick, different year.

Price transparency for health care:

Most of us pay for health care by having it deducted from our wages, but almost invisibly. Your employer pays $60,000 for your services. You get gross paychecks for $50,000, and the employer pays an insurance company $10,000. You feel like you're not paying the $10,000. Then, when you go to the doctor for a procedure, he charges you a co-payment of $100. The insurance company pays the doctor $9,000, and keeps $1,000 to pay for their own expenses and profit.

Why not just pay you $60,000, and let you pay the doctor $9,000? Because then:

a. The insurance company would be unhappy at losing its $1,000.

b. You'd be unhappy at being asked to pay $9,000, and you'd do everything you could to shop it and bargain it down without sacrificing quality you want.

c. The doctor would be unhappy because you'd be bargaining the price down, and they'd have to compete, and might end up with $6,000 instead of $9,000.

This shows some of the many things wrong with our current system, and why it's so hard to get people to support change.

I have never read the linked NYT articles because they require a cookie file be written on my hard drive.

Not that I would be likely to anyway. I thought the NYT was obvious government gibberish almost 20 years ago.

"energycon - Kinda makes ya think whats appropiate - spend'n money on a war in some other part of the world or providing some level of health care for those that might pay taxes? "

Right, why not invest in the health and well being of your cattle in order that they may be more productive instead of just artificially fattening them up for the slaughter.

Only catastrophic-cost care, or maybe even only emergency care, is managed more efficiently by a central mechanism.

Unfortunately that is where most of the cost is - its a classic Pareto distribution. Something like 80% of the cost driven by 20% of the patient cases & not all or even most are imminently close to 'end of life' - a lot of it is 'chronic' or 'catastrophic but treatable'.

If we could agree to tackle those first then the rest would be easy.

Basel too, I've lived in my condo for 7 years and the power has always be on in all the units in the neighborhood. as far as I know. And the price of electricity is pretty reasonable too. Insurance companies don't try to cut off my power or charge 4% to identify people who don't pay promptly. Power company workers, although probably unionized, don't restrict the utility from hiring more workers, so labor costs aren't unreasonable, etc.

dryfly, I know what you mean about the distribution of costs. I think that the catastrophic costs are driven by a culture that is completely oblivious to cost/benefit efficiency for all treatments. If we could get the public, and doctors and clinics and hospitals, to deal directly with costs and benefits by having most people pay for most regular care out of pocket, then that would cause a cultural change in health care. More would need to be done to drive down the cost of emergency and catastrophic care, but without that cultural shift, I doubt the other changes would be effective. As long as people believe that health care is like unmetered water coming out of a faucet, they will use too much. As long as health care providers can conceal the costs of what they are providing from the consumers, they will find ways to supply too much, or at too high a cost.

Compared to the Great Depression we are in year 1939 now

This is quite optimistic. I am fearful we are in year 1930

"Obama is paying the price for his arrogance. His belief that his supporters were a cult and could be swayed by a speech from his high and mighty."

.

I see a man who is seething just under the surface. He doesn't like being told what to say. I keep thinking he will eventually get pwned or punked unexpectedly, blow up, and lose credibility.

Not that it matters.

Hell, for all we know, a discredited Obama may be just what the PTB need.

a couple of months, Laura Tyson was calling for another stimpack. Now she isn't. seems like the Administration has boxed itself in, with the only way out being a catastrophic event (perhaps manufactured?) that could be spun as an unknown unknown.

Every doctor I've talked to about my decision to go to medical school has begged me to reconsider. Says the system is broken, and it is a horrible job as a result.

One thing you all need to consider, you people here who are so sensitive to bubbles -- if the general sentiment among people who are considering quality of life, income, and factors other than whether they'd actually want to do the job are avoiding the medical profession now, what does that mean a doctor's services will be worth when there are too few of them to cover the rounds? What does that do to his bargaining power?

I avoided going into the computer industry in the dot com era because the common wisdom was that "everyone gets rich" doing computer work. Missed that bubble. I am going out of the law because I see a bubble there too. Sometimes you need to take a step back and consider whether the reverse is the case too, sometimes. Whether enough people are avoiding something as a matter of common wisdom to make an opportunity for you.

Basel, most folks on this board feel the economy prior to 2008 was on an unsustainable path. Now it has been restored to a path pretty close to 2007. I'd guess most of us feel "something has to happen". If we are right, and if Summers and the other economic geniuses in the Administration can see that too, then what will they plan? I don't think they want a relapse into asset price decreases, or further declines in nominal demand. My vote is for inflation next. What do you think?

BTW, here's what Krugman doesn't want you to know:

If another downwave starts, which is possible, perhaps even probable, due to rising borrowing costs, the US government simply won't have the credibility or creditworthness to do anything about it.

The economic restructuring that's had been repeatedly delayed since 1998 may finally commence in an environment where governments are essentially powerless to slow the implosion.

In a secular non-idealistic society, money is religion, patriotism, and civil authority. Money and debt are government.

Destroy the currency; destroy the nation.

1 currency, when I had a basal cell cancer removed from my nose, I was reintroduced to the health care system.. Every physican I saw, made me sign an agreement that I would pay out-of-pocket any proceedure performed by the physician but denied by my insurance. So how can you compare costs?

Destroy the currency; destroy the nation.

---I'm fairly certain that was The Plan all along...

Oh, and for what it's worth, this method the fascist right has adopted of shutting down the lines of communication between constituent and representative and preventing any debate by the promulgation of shameless but irresistible lies will backfire. These tactics work because they prevent all reasoned debate of the issue, and consequently prevent reasoned debate as a method of winning the consent of the populace. They also work because they call into question the very legitimacy of the government itself.

With the loss of reasoned debate to get the people to acquiesce to government action, the only recourse for governance will be fear, lies, and force. With the people trained to mistrust their government and consider it illegitimate, the only recourse for governance will be force. The fascist right is opening a pandora's box with the idea of drawing a stalemate until they can take the reigns again, but they fail to realize that nobody will be able to close this box without paying a terrible price. We are about to enter a very dark time as a nation. Keep track of which of your neighbors is willing to keep a secret from the powers that be, and keep them close.

It is an exact repeat of the 2002 "recovery".

ac been scheduled for soylent green reclamation project

if Summers and the other economic geniuses in the Administration can see that too

I don't think so. As far as I can tell, current economic orthodoxy says total debt can grow to the moon.

This is not to say that I don't think inflation will be the result. But I wonder if they will pick it without even really realizing what they're doing.

and how do you know that JP?

"As far as I can tell, current economic orthodoxy says total debt can grow to the moon.
This is not to say that I don't think inflation will be the result. But I wonder if they will pick it without even really realizing what they're doing."

MLM, I would not underestimate the capability of all the senior economists in the Administration. We have to be careful to distinguish what they can say politically versus what they can see for themselves. Let's suppose that one of them thought that the best way to proceed was to wipe out a chunk of national, govt, and private debt by inflating and devaluing the currency by 40% over a period of 10-15 years. Would they say that? Of course not. Instead they would talk about the need for immediate relief, and always say that moral hazard etc was absolutely critical and important, but now is not the time to make it a first priority.

We're stabilizing but NOTHING has been fixed!! Christ, can't even a die-hard Keynesian like Krugman recognize this?

Hoops

What % of your personal net worth are you ready and willing and able to hand over in 2009 for the support of a real person with a chronic illness? I can put you in touch with such a real person with a real need, who could use a real check from you. I am going to guess that you'll come back with a reply that leads to no such check. But prove me wrong.

I would not underestimate the capability of all the senior economists in the Administration.

You may be right, but these are the same folks who got us here. And if you're right, why has so much effort and money been expended on trying to get the shadow banking system restarted? I don't think we can know for sure, and I agree that they wouldn't announce they wanted to inflate the hell out of the currency, but this sure as hell isn't the shortest distance between two points.

JD, Thursday would be better for me.

"but this sure as hell isn't the shortest distance between two points."

Why not? There are multiple goals in managing an entire economy, so I expect a complex plan.

For Homegnome:

YouTube -

CR is not a medical site, but google is your friend.

basal cell carcinoma surgery options >> Medical Questions, Weight Loss, Pregnancy, Drugs, Health Insurance

Call around and ask the price. My mother always said the patient should do his own research and not rely on the doctor, who will make mistakes and sometimes care about money.

My father did not disagree. He was a doctor.

What % of your personal net worth are you ready and willing and able to hand over in 2009 for the support of a real person with a chronic illness? I can put you in touch with such a real person with a real need, who could use a real check from you.

Oh, how clever. I guess you got me, because I would not pay a dime.

That's correct, I'd pay exactly zero, because paying for a person's "chronic illness" under the current system would entail paying for the person's treatment, the doctor to see him, the doctor's administrator, the insurance company's administrator to argue with the doctor's administrator, the actuarial apparatus at the treatment center designed to minimize the health supplier's costs to maximize its profits, the guy next to the guy with the chronic illness without insurance which the hospital was forced by law to treat, the CEO and administrators of the hospital, the insurance company, the fake doctor the insurance company pays to deny treatment, the team of specialists at the insurance company who decide how little they can get away with giving to their patients without being thrown in jail, their stupid fucking commercials which support the advertised television piped into my home, and all that other stuff associated with this broken, fucked system. It would also be paying for lobbyists, payments and dinners to congressmen, and the perpetuation of the system itself. And share holders.

And don't for a second think that if I just walked up and paid cash I wouldn't also be subsidizing the crazy system I just described. The system doesn't work that way - all treatment, whether you pay cash or through an insurance company, is part of the system. Uninsured pay higher costs because they lack the bargaining power of the giant insurance companies, these higher cost subsidize the lower rates, insured and uninsured who pay subsidize those who can't. They're all linked together, and you're paying for it anyway, even if you don't realize it.

I'd be willing to give up to 50% of my paycheck to a socialized system that provided basic healthcare to all people, whether they're working or not, whether they're children who are fortunate to have working parents or children who don't get health care because their parents don't work, whether they have a chronic illness or not, whether they're responsible or irresponsible, whether they're fat, skinny, old, black, white, or whatever. I'd gladly do that because it would make the country stronger, it would give me more personal freedom in my economic decisions, and it would be, by all objective standards except those which are confined in a narrow manner to propagandize, a better, more efficient system that would result in an improved health and better outcomes for everyone in the united states.

Why would I give so much? Maybe I'm altruistic. Or maybe I'm greedy. There are poor people, and poor people without healthcare can cause pandemics. I may be rich and able to afford treatment, but I can still catch germs from the poor, and their corpses still stink.

"I'd pay exactly zero, because... "

Thanks, Hoops! You restored my faith in my ability to predict others.

Schiff just said something interesting on Cspan2. China's quickest way to increase domestic consumption, spending, is for China to dump their US holdings driving the dollar down, renminbi up alowing China to purchase their manuf. goods.

Thanks, Hoops! You restored my faith in my ability to predict others.

I see you didn't read my post past that sentence. You win the argument, I guess. Don't you have a town hall meeting to attend somewhere?

Why not give every doscter a million dollars a year tax free and tell them to treat anyone who walks in the door for forty hours a week. Those who don't want that deal can try and see what the market will bear for their services.

You could do it with only part of what AIG has extorted.

Experts estimate that a staggering 98,000 people die from preventable medical errors each year.

Well, at least they aren't staggering any more.

There are multiple goals in managing an entire economy, so I expect a complex plan.

What if the entire economy is more structurally more complex than the economists and the government?

I know of maybe 2 or 3 people that really understand how the company I work for operates. How can you "manage" an economy that is simply the aggregate of a multitude of mindbogglingly complex companies?

If the guys in DC can't understand how google operates, how can they understand a phenomenon of which google is merely a microscopic component?

You appear knowledgeable on health care. I have a quick question, if you have a minute:

Is it true/myth that 90% of society's health care cost is for the last five years of life of its population? Thanks!

josap - ask him if he has deposits in any landesbanken.

C

If the guys in DC can't understand how google operates, how can they understand a phenomenon of which google is merely a microscopic component?

The guy that welds a car body together doesn't need to understand an engine.
Standardization, interfaces, delegation.

That BFF with a staggering right uppercut...and on Sunday.

"I avoided going into the computer industry in the dot com era because the common wisdom was that "everyone gets rich" doing computer work. Missed that bubble. I am going out of the law because I see a bubble there too. Sometimes you need to take a step back and consider whether the reverse is the case too, sometimes. Whether enough people are avoiding something as a matter of common wisdom to make an opportunity for you."

True enough in most cases. However, doctors ultimately are going to be government employees in one fashion or another. It is inevitable.

Gentleman docsters are a thing of the past. Get ready for factory farmed medicine.

You want to see the future of medicine, look at how beef and pork are raised.

Hoops, you have a good question. I don't know the answer. My guess is that I pay somewhere between $10K and $40K a year for that. So it would be very nice for me to save money on it. But, believe it or not, I am not all that sensitive to my personal costs for these things. I already pay far more for other people's expenses than I spend on myself. I am concerned, though, that we spend 1/6 of our entire GDP on health care, and we seem to get no more for it than other countries that spend much, much less. That isn't good for us as a country.

with 88% of companies reporting, is $13.74(!).

Egad.
That looks like inflation, all right.
I guess they pushed out so much money that some of it is flowing through the economy's veins again.

Our complexities as a society are our Achilies' Heel...

How many of you know where your water comes from, where your electricity is generated, where the trash goes after you leave it on the curb?

These most basic of services are dependent upon complex systems in place that we've taken for granted, because they've never failed us.

You've heard how broke municipalities are and how many of them are firing employees like so much cordwood?

Many expensive complex systems are being laid off as well, in the scrounging for money going on presently...

They can stop buying, sure. Sometimes when a large buyer stops buying, there is more supply. So the price goes down. The large buyer 's existing stock is worth less.

The death spiral.

Nice post. One point tho:

Uninsured pay higher costs because they lack the bargaining power of the giant insurance companies, these higher cost subsidize the lower rates, insured and uninsured who pay subsidize those who can't.

There is an enormous amount of pricing dynamics hidden in that one sentence. It took me years to figure out that game, and just how negotiable medical bills are.

thanks for the input- that is what I had thought I had read somewhere.

I was interested because we have had a lot of comments about the economy being in a "tail spin" and that is why we needed a stimulus or two or three. I think that the stimulus and many of the measures put into place are the equivalent of "grabbing the controls and fighting the spin"

At least those who arguing for a stimulus should come with a different metaphor to be consistent with their argument.

"It took me years to figure out that game, and just how negotiable medical bills are."

And this is a significant cause for the inefficiency of our health care. Imagine if, when you went to the store to buy groceries, you never knew how much anything cost and, when you checked out, you had to enquire and haggle over every item. Incredibly inefficient!

In order for health care reform to work it has to restrict access to health care, not expand it.

Good luck with that...

It is being done now - via pocketbook biopsy... and to better control the flow of walk-ins change ERs from true ER to 'urgent care'... where you have to be admitted [i.e. show insurance] prior to admission.

The irony of this whole discussion is the elephant no one is discussing - the past is dead... the old health care system we knew is gone... now we are trying to decide what we get going forward either by design or by accident. There will be rationing... there will be high costs... the only question is how we ration and what those costs are... and how we distribute paying for them.

from above

"But yet we are still discussing National Health Care?
How exactly will "we" pay for it?"

we are already paying for it...and then some, us more than double average spending 1st world nations

Libertarian thing doesn't work.
I honestly don't know why you can't grasp that yet.
If it worked, it would have been used by somebody in the past 2000 years.

I'm looking outside right now and it seems like it's working pretty good.

"Uninsured pay higher costs because they lack the bargaining power of the giant insurance companies, these higher cost subsidize the lower rates, insured and uninsured who pay subsidize those who can't."

Right, welcome to america where the uninsured sick subsidize the healthy.

The argument that "complex things fail sometimes" doesn't refute the argument that complex things need design.

Simple things fail too - when stretched beyond their 'yield point'. Just because something is 'simple' doesn't mean it is 'robust'... and sometimes complexity adds robustness IF the complexity includes back up redundancy. As you pointed out - it all depends on the 'design'.

"with 88% of companies reporting, is $13.74(!)."

Can you back the profits of financial entities out of that because they didn't earn that money. That money was taken from the future and as such should reduce the present value of future economic growth and therefore makes the nation poorer.

When you cut down a tree it adds to GDP but doesn't come off the books for use by future generations.

Libertarian thing doesn't work.

One libertarian on a deserted island works great... but add another libertarian and you'll have to add at least three more people... two lawyers [one for each libertarian] and a judge.

By the way, a 120 PE on the S&P is historically exorbitant.

Check out what it is for the Russell 2000, "nil"

P/Es & Yields on Major Indexes - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

hahahahahahah .... ahhhh.

Climate change has frequently been the accelerator pedal historically, in hastening reversals of fortune...

Many of you are smart as the dickens when it comes down to watching your pennies, but you have no idea what sort of havoc comes when past performance doesn't mean anything anymore, on both Wall*Street and our fruited plain.

I believe he is toast- and I maxed out in both the primary and general election for him!
Had I known that we would get the same financial policies as with a President Hillary Clinton or John McCain I think I would sat out the election and saved my money and time.

I don't think he has a core constituency that is prepared to go to the barricades for him. The fiscal conservative are pissed off, the Civil liberties crowd is ticked off, the anti war crowd is disappointed and the progressives think he wimped out on health care.
My forecast is that we will see a centrist third party challenge (Bloomberg) in 2012 who can win specially if the Republicans nominate somebody like Palin.

I do a lot of healthcare-related analysis for my work. There are some maddening correlations and biased selections.

1. For lower income workers, the cost of insuring them is a higher percentage of their salary or base pay. This is one of many reasons why they are less likely to receive medical insurance from their employers.
2. Lower income people, including lower income workers, tend to have more health problems and cost more to insure. For a large employer, this is often hidden in the group cost, but they are paying it. Sometimes, the health problem is one of the reasons they are low income. For example, it might make it more difficult for them to perform certain jobs.
3. Sometimes the higher health costs are clearly the fault of the individual. Cigarettes are a good example. Obesity is not quite as good. Many health costs having to do with accidents are borne by people who did nothing wrong, except drive on the same street as a drunk driver, or someone who was texting and driving.
4. Less educated groups, and indirectly lower income groups, tend to have shorter lives, and be less "compliant" (a medical term for things like taking your drugs as prescribed, on time, doing what the doctor ordered).

If you happen to be a careful person with good health and health practices, but you work at a job where most of your coworkers are smokers, binge drinkers, recreational drug users, or are grossly overweight, your salary is probably significantly lower as a result. If your employer pays for healthcare, it costs them a lot. Even if they don't pay for healthcare, that group tends to have a lot of illness and turnover.

"with the long Treasury auctions coming up this week I'd take anything written in the Journal as market prepping or chaff.

C"

$100 billion next week right C? At the rate of monetization just under 50% this means trouble. Particularly since the market has shown how much new debt in dollars it can bear already. Namely, the difference between what the fed bought and what whoever else bought. Therefore the percent monetized by the fed should increase along with the increase in auction size.

Personally I think they are buying way more than they admit. Remember that unaccounted for $9 Trillion at the fed?

Zero Hedge: The Federal Reserve Can Not Account For $9 Trillion In Off-Balance Sheet Transactions

Obama's in no man's land. He can't move further to the right or further to left w/o serious consequences. Summers and Geithner are defining his presidency so far. Unintended consequences of massive govt. intervention in the financial system will be felt by Obama and Bernanke beginning in September.

"You have advanced kidney cancer. It will kill you, probably in the next year or two. A drug called Sutent slows the spread of the cancer and may give you an extra six months, but at a cost of $54,000. Is a few more months worth that much?"

Why We Must Ration Health Care Its a persuasive read, I believe.

Why We Must Raton Health Care - NY Times

How can we know what type of health care system will cost or save anyone anything, when we have no real knowlege of the cost of health care now?

If different doctors, pharmacys, insure co, medicare, all charge or are billed out at different rates (often for the same test, med or procedure) how do we know what to compare with?

We can say it is a percent of GDP. But what is the cost of what we now pay in dollars for insure, copays, not covered, BK costs, etc compared to what the cost of a new system might be?

Except you don't have one!

We are all Broward now.

Wait, weren't all Broward already?

The free fall may be over, but there are few green shoots at the bottom of the cliff.

Cr isn't long from achieving Tanta's acerbic wit.

otishertz at 904 wrote in part

"And without insurance, the fees for the regular treatment are often 50-100% higher than the fees for those insured (because the insurers negotiate the fee payment). So it is a double whammy."
This is called price discrimination. If a shopkeeper said, "how much do you make a year?" before ringing you up that business would have no customers. Secret pricing and price discrimination in a finance based health cartel that excludes the sick is what we have.

snip

Force these self entitled pussies in medical businesses to compete like the rest of us by creating a DATABASE OF PRICES by doctor, location, and services. Make it mandatory and post it on the internet. Then watch asthe majic happens when the lower priced doctor gets more business and other doctors have to accept less for their services or find another business. You know, like the rest of us!

Force them to compete by ending secret pricing and price discrimination. You cannot have a market without prices. Prices are prerequisite to market formation. There is no market for health care. It is a cabal.

let me add to this that we would then need to break the strangle hold of the AMA and other orgs on the number of doctors and other medical professionals "produced" in our economy

the ama has created false scarcity

Why does the NYT limit the discussion of "rationing" to healthcare?

Resources are limited. If GS pays 10 billion in bonuses, there are fewer crumbs for Iraq veterans.

One last thing, the average CORE EARNS PER SHR @ $44.48 also make me doubt the reality of the current core EPS valuation of $67.66 ....total fucking bullshit and fraud! What was your point....

Re: On July 23, with 53% of companies reporting, the as-reported earnings estimate for Q2 was $7.27. The latest reading from Aug. 5, with 88% of companies reporting, is $13.74(!).

I wonder where those earnings came from??? hmmmm

A federal program to guarantee or buy bad assets from the ailing U.S. bank sector could come with a $3.5 trillion price tag.

That would push the accumulated costs of rescuing the financial markets over the last year through various federal loan, stock purchase, debt guarantee and other programs close to $9 trillion and counting, with practically no end in sight for the bad news battering the banking industry.

Re: "I form sentences too!!"

Thank you for constructions!

The corn bread and blueberry apply cobbler were good. The dough for
the raisin bread is rising.

Gee the hub ought to play me the Julia Child/Julie movie whenever he gets hungry.

I don't think I'll ever bone a duck tho.

Research on Homeownership Rate through 2030

I tried calling around for vaccination prices. Didn't work.

Re: spaghetti sauce recipe?

I found this stuff, but you may have to go beyond spag sauce:

California Tomato Grower Association

cooKING FRESH BY DAVA PARR SUMMER IN tHE RocKIES
Courtesy of Dava Parr, Fresh & Wyld

Serves 3 or 4This dish calls for fresh, vine and sun-ripened tomatoes. The tomatoes are the main flavor here with a little fresh garlic and basil competing for favoritism. In this recipe less is best, so I resist throwing in lots of other vegetables, even though my garden and fridge are brimming with them. If I can’t stop myself, I’ll add a generous handful of arugula. I also think this is wonderful with grilled chicken. 4 servings of penne pasta 2 big, organic, fresh, ripe tomatoes (a variety of colors of heirloom’s are nice)Sea salt and pepper 2 cloves garlic Generous pour of extra virgin olive oil2 ounces of chevre or blue cheese, crumbled A handful of arugula Prepare pasta and set aside, keeping hot. Chop tomatoes, add salt and pepper and put into a separate bowl. Drain some of the tomato liq-uid into a serving bowl. Crush garlic and add to tomato liquid in serving bowl. Drizzle ol-ive oil into tomato liquid while whisking to slightly emulsify. Add pasta, cheese, arugula and tomatoes. Toss a few times and serve

Mr. Krugman is like a man inside a dark elevator standing on a stool in order to fix a light bulb, and once he fixes the light bulb, the light blinds him and he stumbles off the stool and free falls to the floor of the elevator, and then calls his fall from the stool “The Great Free Fall”. Once he realizes that he is stabilized on the floor he proclaims his “great free fall” has ended, or perhaps it ended just a few minutes before he cognitively noticed it, or perhaps he has made an error of the senses and the fall will end in the next few seconds, but either way, his reasoning goes, my reason tells me it is over: not realizing that the entire time the elevator itself has also been in a free fall and remains so still—he just doesn’t notice it because of the walls of the box.

What Mr. Krugman doesn’t assume, or almost rules out through the shear logic of his mental comprehension: it is possible to have a greater than “great” fall.

One has to wonder whether some of these economists actually believe their own words, or whether they have some other agenda, or they have become so far removed from the world that they have lost touch with it completely (Princeton has this effect on people); or perhaps many of them have decided to wage war against Reason, and Common Sense has become the first causality.