Freddie Mac: House Price Improvement "Largely Seasonal"
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CalculatedRisk on Fri, 08/07/2009 - 12:31pm (168 comments)
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Actually, REOs don't have nearly as much seasonality.
Just sayin'
Shock, surprise.
I cannot comment on "largely." There is just too much noise to make that call. Certainly much is noise and seasonality and the CA $10k and Federal $8k but there's no track record with which to establish a true baseline.
Largely seasonal due to unusually large non seasonal fed intervention.
We increased our single-family loss reserves to $54.2 billion as of June 30, 2009, or 31.76% of the amount of our single-family nonperforming loans, from $41.1 billion as of March 31, 2009, or 28.43% of the amount of our nonperforming loans, and $24.6 billion as of December 31, 2008, or 20.73% of the amount of our nonperforming loans. The increase in our loss reserves in the second quarter and first six months of 2009 reflected the continued deterioration in the overall credit performance of loans in our guaranty book of business, as evidenced by the significant increase in delinquent, seriously delinquent and nonperforming loans. In addition, our average loss severity, or average initial charge-off per default, increased as a result of the decline in home prices during the first half of 2009. We recorded a lower provision for credit losses in the second quarter of 2009 than in the first quarter of 2009, however, due to a slower rate of increase in both our estimated default rate and average loss severity as compared with the prior quarter.
CR - on the access issues some are having, my guess is that their ISPs were flagged by Google as being part of the massive DDOS attacks that were reported yesterday.
there's no track record with which to establish a true baseline.
No kidding, we can't even use the house prices always go up baseline anymore.
From Blogger:
"Like Twitter and Facebook and other services this last week, Blogger is currently under a significant DDOS attack, and the 403 messages are a temporary prevention put in place to try to squash the attack."
Sorry all.
Hope springs each summer
Case-Shiller index is up
What about the fall?
I've been
I see nothing but HUGE risk, unless you live in a house that you get cheap and then have a source of sustainable income. - DH
I definitely would not be into flipping for resale in my area. Prices are still high relative to incomes. OTOH there are foreclosures in a nice area at 50% off, and that makes sense as a home. And even though they are falling to an all-cash price, they are still pretty high generally, which makes me think there are other people making the switch.
The markets have proven lately to be as relentless on the bull side as they were on the bear side last year. I am surprised at how risky assets simply continue their march higher without many pullbacks.
Perhaps now though is a time to move into less risky assets, such as gold as treasuries, which I feel would outperform if the markets do head back down somewhat. I think this is especially true for gold, as today's news that European central banks have agreed to renew the Central Bank Gold Agreement and sell less gold should provide a further lift to the gold price, as discussed here:
Gold price steady on renewal of CBGA
the government should increase the tax credit to negate the decrease caused by seasonality.
Take a load off Fanny:
The Automatic Earth: August 7 2009: Clownshoes
From the last thread (sorry to go OT on this one so quickly):
@Wisdom Speaker
Language differences. I guess I wouldn't consider lent-out credit to be "money", the way currency (especially a hard currency in nearly-fixed supply) is "money". The government could borrow whatever it wanted, but would be subject to credit-market limits on how much it could borrow. It couldn't print.
You may not consider lent-out credit to be "money", but it's sitting in my checking account and I can directly use it for payment with a debit card.
To me, "money" is whatever is used as a fungible medium of exchange. What fraction of each day's monetary exchanges do you think actually involve physical currency?
"there's no track record with which to establish a true baseline. "
i.e., We don't know how many of you buggers are going to act rationally and walk away from your underwater mortgages.
That does call to mind a song for thread tunes...
The Weight - Gillian Welch & Old Crow Medicine Show
YouTube - The Weight - Gillian Welch & Old Crow Medicine Show
i have just started digging into July data, and i am more convinced than ever the housing market is going to be a House of Pain this fall, unless Bernanke can get mortgage rates down to 4% and Congress steps up with a 15K home purchase credit for all comers.
I'd go further--there's not enough of a track record to be able to rationally decide whether to walk, because there's no history to use to assess the cost of the damaged credit.
btw, that is both Freddie and AIG now that reported profits. I assume we will start getting repaid soon?
"That does call to mind a song for thread tunes..."
Nice selection.
if consumer credit is declining (just not slower increase in growth) and incomes are essentially flat, jobs are being lost, - where is the buying power coming from to increase spending?
Since I don't have a HELOC and know nothing about them - are people still able to draw down on them even though they their homes are worth less? Is this where the buying is coming from?
unless Bernanke can get mortgage rates down to 4%
Yes, that goes in line with the projection of 30 million mortgages underwater.
Feds have to step up QE program, is my guess.
Re: "unless Bernanke can get mortgage rates down to 4% "
And get Treasury yields back down to 1% or zero... which will help all those folks saving their dimes for The Jobless recovery, which is also the Yield-less Recovery (also known as the Extended Shadow Recession).
"btw, that is both Freddie and AIG now that reported profits. I assume we will start getting repaid soon? "
in economics-speak, you would consider those "sunk costs"
Didn'tAIG have to dump the proceeds of the sale of a couple of units into one of the subs it spun off because it was undercapitalized? I doubt there was a profit to actually paydown the loan.
OT, but NCUA to have webinar on Monday about their financial reorganization:
Alexandria, Va., August 6, 2009 -- The National Credit Union Administration (NCUA) will hold a webinar Monday, August 10, 2009, to provide background information about the Central Liquidity Facility’s (CLF) recent change to its investment policy and pending transfer of CLF stock ownership from U.S. Central FCU to other credit unions.
Media Advisory - NCUA Announces Central Liquidity Facility Investment Policy Changes
4% rates = how much principal forgiveness???
How much will the Fed have to buy to get 30yr mortgages at 4% ?
How much principal could be bought down using the same money?
"Feds have to step up QE program, is my guess."
Which could definitely flip the inflation switch on. But if I were Japan or China, I would seriously consider reducing my exposure to dollar denominated assets like treasuries. I do not think Ben wins that one.
Decreases in tax withholding? Refinanced loans reducing monthly payments and freeing some money up for discretionary spending?
The bump in spending looks to have been a short-term affair--retail results for July weren't all that good.
Sorry, Doc, but Feds have to shift money from savers to non-savers to keep the game going.
This all fits with the theory that a small # of people are actually producing things and you need some mechanism to distribute them to the remaining population. If you don't like, reduce the workweek by law and put up tariffs. It's not opinion, it's equation and it's going to get balanced one way or the other. You don't want to see "other".
How about "housing prices managed to tread water for the first time in two years thanks to up to 18k per home state and federal incentives, historically low interest rates due to tens of billions thrown by the Fed into the MBS market, foreclosure moratorium keeping inventory below it natural level, and normal seasonal factors."
broward,
Ill do my part by mowing every other week. What about a lawnmower icon/smiley for whack down
Off to work to mow, but I'm waiting for bank Friday news updates:
YouTube -
@Yalt: "You may not consider lent-out credit to be "money", but it's sitting in my checking account and I can directly use it for payment with a debit card."
No, there's nothing in your checking account. There's a bunch of electrons that symbolize a number. When you walk out of the store with the stuff, your bank moves the number to someone else. Furthermore, the government and the bank can add to or subtract from that number almost at whim. (Or, which is the same thing, produce other numbers somewhere else that effectively dilute your existing number.) The electronic number is still debt, not wealth or capital ("surplus of production over consumption").
To me, "money" is whatever is used as a fungible medium of exchange.
I realize that's the conventional definition, but as I said, it's a language difference. I say that "credit" being used as a medium of exchange is NOT the same as a hard-currency being used as a medium of exchange. Credit is convenient but in the end it's just a mutually agreed-upon fantasy.
More on the attack that is shutting down Twitter, Facebook, Blogger, etc - all directed at one blogger: Twitter, Facebook Attacks Meant for One Georgian Blogger - ABC News
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Yields on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage securities soared, increasing for a fifth day and signaling that interest rates on new home loans will climb amid data showing refinancing last month was slower than forecast.
Yields on Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds rose 0.11 percentage point to 4.83 percent as of 12:01 p.m. in New York, the highest since June 18 and up from 4.38 percent on July 31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yields were driven up by higher benchmark Treasury rates after a report showed the U.S. lost fewer jobs in July.
Mortgage-Bond Yields Rise for Fifth Day; Loan Rates May Climb - Bloomberg.com
"How about "housing prices managed to tread water for the first time in two years thanks to up to 18k per home state and federal incentives, historically low interest rates due to tens of billions thrown by the Fed into the MBS market, along with the normal seasonal factors." "
You forgot the moratoriums. They had much more to do with any signs of stabilization in housing than all those factors combined. For people outside the industry, these were kind of an afterthought, but their impacts were huge. Imagine freezing foreclosures across the country for almost half a year. And the effects rippled across the entire economy.
And that would be hundreds, not tens, or billions of newly minted dollars thrown at MBS.
"increasing for a fifth day and signaling that interest rates on new home loans will climb "
I love how they talk like there is some kind of lagging effect.
Rates change literally within minutes of MBS market changes (of 25bps in price or more, 37.5bps in some shops).
So, completely OT, but have gas prices gone up in your neck of the woods recently?
We had a .10 jump in 3 days, up to $2.99
And that would be hundreds, not tens, or billions of newly minted dollars thrown at MBS.
Hundreds of billions actually. $650 billion last time I checked.
"So, completely OT, but have gas prices gone up in your neck of the woods recently?"
Yes, and it is not OT at all - the performance in the housing market and the price of oil are very closely linked.
I find more & more that just about everything is linked somehow.
the force is strong with this one...
ghost- I must have been editing my comment to add moratorium when you posted that.
agree with you 100%.
Now, seasonal factors will go away, and the moratorim are gone. Only direct goverment intervention is left. What a healthy market.
We had a .10 jump in 3 days, up to $2.99
$3.00 here also. Lots of oil in storage around the world, so the oil major are going to do stealth increses to pay those inventory costs. It doesn't matter that consumption is down. We've known for decades that consumer pump prices are only slightly correlated with the real world.
I see $3.75 by November.
My take on things, which I'm sure pisses off the holders of balance sheet items. The Reality is cash flow and that's all the Feds are focused on - maintaining cash flow. The Reality is that balance sheets are solely a means for manipulating and maintaining cash flows. Holders of balance sheets don't want to hear that, though. But that's the Reality that's grown in place for several decades because of the inequitable distribution of income.
Oh, well.
The end result seems fairly obvious.
If you're holding balance sheet items and your thinking revolves around them, the actions of the Fed will continue to mystify and frustrate you and eventually harm you.
Currency is also a mutually agreed-upon fantasy acting as a representation of capital. So is gold, once it becomes a fungible medium of exchange. The only transactions that don't involve some degree of "mutually agreed-upon fantasy" are direct barter transactions.
I thought I read something about military amnesty in Nigeria, but that didn't help things. Nigeria has recently been a good boogeyman to blame gas hikes on. (scuse the bad grammar)
unless Bernanke can get mortgage rates down to 4% and Congress steps up with a 15K home purchase credit for all comers.
I remember the car market of the 80's. The US makes would do the 2K rebate promotion, then 3 months later they'd do the 3K rebate promotion. People who took the 2K rebate felt like they were being taken for suckers and swore off said manufacturer forever. I think those tactics did more to ruin US automakers than quality problems. The Japanese makes never did the rebate thing back then, as best they'd have a financing promotion.
"I see $3.75 by November. "
I do not see that unless the dollar falls further or oil spikes. Summer is peak season for gas and I do not think we anywhere near peak refining levels.
I do not see that unless the dollar falls further or oil spikes. Summer is peak season for gas and I do not think we anywhere near peak refining levels.
............
No hurricanes yet.
And then there's changeover to heating oil refining...
More on the attack that is shutting down Twitter, Facebook, Blogger, etc - all directed at one blogger:
There's no such thing as bad publicity. That's one lesson you can only learn in a capitalist economy, eh? What his attackers (Putin?) have done is ensure the guy superstar status.
The way around that problem is to include with the rebate a guarantee that if the rebate is increased in the future, current buyers will get the increase too.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/7/2009 - 4:37 pm
I've been Pigged
Coulda' been worse:
YouTube - Squeal Like A Pig (Deliverance)
Blackhalo: there you go again, being rational. LOL I'm sure you know black is the new white.
Hi ghostfaceinvestah,
Would you please elaborate on this part:
"And that would be hundreds, not tens, or billions of newly minted dollars thrown at MBS. "
Thanks!
NCT
$3.00 here also. - JPO
Jeez, it was about 2.60 here just the other day, IIRC, and I'm only 1 county away.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/7/2009 - 4:37 pm
I've been Pigged
Coulda' been worse: - c
How did you know I'm a hillbilly?
I know rather small sea level changes threaten a lot of refineries. Is this being dealt with yet? I mean publicly....I'm sure people are pooping their pants over it in assorted board meetings.
"What his attackers (Putin?)"
If so, I'd take the hint. Radiation poisoning is an awful way to go.
Alexander Litvinenko - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I follow these guys for Colorado gas cost. This is their one year chart and doesn't show the lack of refinery capacity this year compared to last.
Frontier Oil Corp (FTO) - Stock chart, Index chart - MSN Money
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/7/2009 - 5:13 pm
How did you know I'm a hillbilly? Wink
You used to have a link to your website, right? Back in the Haloscan days, IIRC...
@Yalt "Currency is also a mutually agreed-upon fantasy acting as a representation of capital. So is gold, once it becomes a fungible medium of exchange. The only transactions that don't involve some degree of "mutually agreed-upon fantasy" are direct barter transactions."
Well, in my view gold is still capital because it represents actual production of a physical object, and in fact the transaction IS a barter transaction. But once it becomes a medium of exchange its value increases beyond its intrinsic value, so you are also right. But I'm not in favor of gold per se.
What I'd prefer is that the "mutual" aspect of the "mutually agreed-upon fantasy" be restored. At the moment, the government and banks are creating virtual supplies of fantasy credit without the consent of the governed. Furthermore, there should be a firm limit to the amount of the fantasy credit, so that neither party (nor both together) could subsequently agree to increase it.
I've never posted a Minyanville link before, but this piece pretty much hits the nail on the head where the commercial REITs are concerned.
REITs Living on a Wing and a Prayer-Minyanville
"And that would be hundreds, not tens, or billions of newly minted dollars thrown at MBS. "
The Fed is the only major buyer of MBS since the beginning of the year (around Fed actually).
This blog gives a running total of how much they have purchases, see the "thermometer" on the right hand side
Mortgage Rates Blog
Note, the 705B is a bit overstated I think, the Fed does buy and sell MBS (when they roll months, technical thing in the market), but nonetheless, they have purchased almot 600B net and have committments to buy another $100B, so maybe that is what the number counts.
Put another way, their purchases are roughly equal to new issuance in the market YTD.
A client of mine is buying a house 70k offer. We're told it is a short sale. Person bought a long time ago and would still have equity at 70, but she pulled all the equity out and owes over 200k to Indymac or whoever the heck succeeded them. Shortsale city. 2 years taxes owed; I'm sure assn fees. If they
don't act soon, they'll get even less back. I'm guessing payment of taxes, assn fees and re commish will total approximately 15k, so the bank will get back 55k on its over 200k. Severity anyone?
Re: so that neither party (nor both together) could subsequently agree to increase it
Kinda limits the amount of FUN the Party can have tho. Fantasy - like advertising - is BETTER than real. So, like black being the new white, Fantasy is the NEW Real. You can never go back home (except from OZ).
So just like BBAD's the FedGov is focused on the minimum monthly payment
Doesn't matter how much the debt is, as long as we can make the minimum, we're golden...we've got the FRB triple-platinum extra rewards card.
Thanks for clear explanation!
I don't know why, but this link makes me think about Sheila Colleen Bair, working so hard at The FDIC today, helping to restore order to our systemically impaired banking networks. Go baby go!
YouTube -
Well, I'm shortly off to Merritt Island, and I expect some bank failures when
I get there.
Anybody know what happened to FFDIC?
Re: "yields on Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds rose 0.11 percentage point to 4.83 percent"
We can go to 8%, come on baby!
Re: "yields on Fannie Mae’s current-coupon 30-year fixed-rate mortgage bonds rose 0.11 percentage point to 4.83 percent"
We can go to 8%, come on baby!
OT:
A CERN press release has revealed that the Large Hadron Collider will be restarted in November. Let's get ready for the warped extra dimensions, negative probabilities and extraordinary BFFs!
Hmm. I forgot to consider that anything in fixed supply is subject to artificial scarcities through hoarding. In that situation, those with economic power will be able to trigger deflations at whim. However, deflation tends to trigger revolution which displaces those in power -- a powerful disincentive...
The real purpose of all this musing is to try to come up with an alternative measurement than the dollar, for economic success/failure. It's not too hard to price all one's holdings in terms of the equivalent ounces of gold, for instance. Or barrels of oil, or some measure of staple foodstuffs...
Furthermore, there should be a firm limit to the amount of the fantasy credit, so that neither party (nor both together) could subsequently agree to increase it.
That's what reserve requirements are supposed to do: put a cap on the loans any bank can have outstanding at any time. To be honest, I'm having trouble thinking of a better way--although certainly we could do a far, far better job of maintaining and enforcing those requirements.
You used to have a link to your website, right? Back in the Haloscan days, IIRC... - C
Actually, no. I am the only person left on the planet who has no website, blog, Twitter, Facebook, etc. I don't even have an iPOD or a crackberry. It's all I can do to infest this place.
Re: warped extra dimensions
And Nov is when the M2M ends (right? HA). So, CERN might cause the fusing of the capital/anti-capital reactor in our alternative anti-economic universe.
By the way, the Realtors who say "they're not making any more land" aren't considering the huge acreages that will be made habitable (and some made inhabitable) if global warming continues unabated at current rates. Long Russia and Canada; short current coastal regions. Maybe even an Antarctic Land Rush if it gets really nasty?
Re: I am the only person left on the planet who
There are two of us. I have a cell-phone, but it's a corporate one. It goes when I go.
"To be honest, I'm having trouble thinking of a better way--although certainly we could do a far, far better job of maintaining and enforcing those requirements."
Abandoning mark to market for mark to maturity, and allowing GS to exceed reserve requirements for BHCs, does not seem like the right direction in that regard. So like NRA said above...
"So, like black being the new white, Fantasy is the NEW Real."
"A CERN press release has revealed that the Large Hadron Collider will be restarted in November. Let's get ready for the warped extra dimensions, negative probabilities and extraordinary BFFs!"
I don't consider myself a tinfoil hatter, nor do I usually comment on topics not related to the economy, but I gotta say, that is one thing that makes me nervous. I have studied enough science to be very wary of people messing with things at the atomic level.
That and biotech are the two things that worry me. Anything at the level too small to see with the naked eye.
Re: if global warming continues unabated at current rates
We're cooling off. The glaciers are turning into anti-glaciers.
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/7/2009 - 5:31 pm
Actually, no. I am the only person left on the planet who has no website, blog, Twitter, Facebook, etc. I don't even have an iPOD or a crackberry. It's all I can do to infest this place.
Musta been someone else in Oregon. Oh well.... The I guess it was just luck
As you probably remember, LHC was launched on September 10, 2008. On September 15, 2008, Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Antarctic Land Rush if it gets really nasty?
.........................
There's a land rush at the "north pole". Countries are fighting over newly exposed land for oil/shipping terminals.
"I don't consider myself a tinfoil hatter, nor do I usually comment on topics not related to the economy, but I gotta say, that is one thing that makes me nervous. I have studied enough science to be very wary of people messing with things at the atomic level."
Putin, arguably the most powerful man in the world, sitting on top of stockpile of questionably secured warheads gives me a tad more pause. But if you REALLY want the bejebus scared out of you, watch or read "The Mist."
Vespasian:
"After being acclaimed emperor by his troops in A.D. 69 and eliminating his rivals, Vespasian found Rome facing a deep economic crisis and still recovering from the fire that consumed it under Nero.
Using riches plundered from Jerusalem and proceeds from increased taxes, he launched a major public works program and started building the Colosseum — the most ambitious and best-preserved of his projects."
Re: I have studied enough science to be very wary of people messing with things at the atomic level
Come on.... We've got our best people working on it. Besides, what can go wrong, dude?! This'll be SO COOL, dude!
Yalt, I am tempted to agree with you, although I would've liked the dollar better when it was backed with gold, and I liked the reserve requirements better back when the accountants had fewer conflicts of interest, the accounting was kept straightforward (in part due to lack of computers, and less legal "sophistication" - sophistry being bad).
It occurs to me that the Federal Deposit Insurance (and other "insurances") are nothing of the kind. They're disincentives to the wealthy to do due diligence. The regulators don't regulate nearly as well as the market participants would have, if given access to the same accounting data, because they don't have skin in the game.
So if we have to have fantasy money, we should at least have simple, transparent and rigorous accounting.
'But if you REALLY want the bejebus scared out of you, watch or read "The Mist."'
Stephen King?
By the way, the types of particle collisions that CERN intends to create occur on a daily basis in the Earth's upper atmosphere, as cosmic rays shower down upon us. CERN's not going to destroy the world.
On the other hand, given the complexity of the machine and their engineering, political and financial constraints, I'll be amazed if the machine runs reliably anytime in the next 3 years.
Both Bair and Federal Reserve Governor Daniel K. Tarullo spoke about the need to fill regulatory gaps. “One potential gap has already been addressed through the cooperative effort of federal and state banking agencies to prevent insured depository institutions from engaging in ‘regulatory arbitrage’ through charter conversions,” Tarullo said.
Also see: Sweep Account Disclosure Requirements Frequently Asked Questions
FDIC: FIL-39-2009: Frequently Asked Questions
The FDIC has concerns about the ability to perfect a security interest when there is a substitution clause in a repurchase sweep agreement; however, the clause itself may not defeat perfection. If a substitution clause is present in the repurchase sweep agreement, the depository institution should acknowledge that substitution will not be exercised and indicate this through the sweep disclosure to the customer. Further, newly issued or amended repurchase sweep agreements, including contract renewals, may not contain a substitution clause.
"Putin, arguably the most powerful man in the world, sitting on top of stockpile of questionably secured warheads gives me a tad more pause."
Honestly, I worry less about nuclear proliferation or anyone's stockpiles than this sort of thing. one nuclear bomb can wipe out a bunch of people, but screw with things at the atomic level? i shudder to think what could happen.
"By the way, the types of particle collisions that CERN intends to create occur on a daily basis in the Earth's upper atmosphere, as cosmic rays shower down upon us. CERN's not going to destroy the world.
On the other hand, given the complexity of the machine and their engineering, political and financial constraints, I'll be amazed if the machine runs reliably anytime in the next 3 years."
Thanks, that actually makes me feel better.
Re: So if we have to have fantasy money, we should at least have simple, transparent and rigorous accounting
You are REALLY making the nobility pissed off now, buddy. They've told me to tell YOU that things are working EXACTLY the way it's supposed to be working.
But, remember, because we live in the GREATEST democracy in the ENTIRE universe (alternate or otherwise) you can always work to change the system. That's what makes democracy GREAT. And, as Sponge Bob says: Good luck with that.
I have studied enough science to be very wary of people messing with things at the atomic level....Anything at the level too small to see with the naked eye.
What? No chemistry? No electronics? (can't be stripping those electrons off at the atomic level) No medicine? (they're always worrying about bacteria and viruses and stuff...)
"Honestly, I worry less about nuclear proliferation or anyone's stockpiles than this sort of thing. one nuclear bomb can wipe out a bunch of people, but screw with things at the atomic level? i shudder to think what could happen."
Some of the remaining assets of Lehman Brothers to be sold in the bankruptcy consist of uranium. Lehman Brothers is holding onto a stockpile of 450,000 lb of uranium "yellowcake". The substance, yellowcake, is a solid form of mined uranium which is yet to be enriched. It could be used to power a nuclear reactor, make weapons, or, theoretically, to make a bomb. Lehman's potentially explosive asset is a hangover from a commodities trading contract undertaken before the Wall Street bank went bankrupt in September. Lehman's ownership is governed by tight regulations. Its yellowcake must be stored at licensed facilities, and the substance cannot be transported around freely.
Lehman Brothers - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"one nuclear bomb can wipe out a bunch of people,"
One nuclear bomb can start a world war. We have been very lucky, and very fortunate in the people who work on this sort of thing.
By the way, the types of particle collisions that CERN intends to create occur on a daily basis in the Earth's upper atmosphere, as cosmic rays shower down upon us. CERN's not going to destroy the world.
But we're not supposed to know that--you can't see those cosmic rays with the naked eye so we shouldn't even be allowed to know they're there.
His best short story IMHO. From "Skeleton Crew," I think.
The Bankster bomb has done massive destruction around the world!
Some of the remaining assets of Lehman Brothers to be sold in the bankruptcy consist of uranium. Lehman Brothers is holding onto a stockpile of 450,000 lb of uranium "yellowcake".
.....................
April Fools?? Please?
I want my BFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Re: April Fools?? Please?
Amazon.com: Uranium Ore: Industrial & Scientific
Nope, you can buy some right here.
Putting on my
and can't decide whether to 
or 
They weren't kidding when talking about "toxic" assets. 
"screw with things at the atomic level?"
Just what do you think a nuclear detonation is, exactly...
And the collider is mostly for sub-atomic research I suspect.
I was thinking... if you had enough money to pay cash for a house today, would it be a decent hedge strategy to buy it with as big a loan as you can and keep your cash (in flyover land)?
Hyperinflation > your cash is nearly worthless, but you can still easily pay off the loan and you have a hard asset.
Deflation > it's bad to have debt, but it's OK since your cash is worth more.
Stagflation > You might be kind of screwed
Deflation with bank failures > You might really be screwed
I want my BFF!!
We may need to have another poll and wait another week?
"His best short story IMHO. From "Skeleton Crew," I think."
I read it in a collection. Strong story, I thought. Also, The Tommyknockers, the subject being one with which I have a special affinity.
I vote for yellowcake as fantasy money then.
The point of deposit insurance was to protect small market participants, who couldn't be expected to be able to do the necessary due diligence, mostly because their stakes were too small to justify the enormous amount of time and effort it would take to hack through all the financial information and make a rational choice.
What's unfortunate is that the FDIC has so often chosen to protect deposits larger than the statutory limit. It's quite common to find a note in an auditor's letter criticizing a firm for overly concentrated deposits, but nobody cares because they know one way or another they're going to get bailed out in the end.
I don't want small savers to have to be afraid to deposit their money in a bank, but I don't know why a wealthy individual or decent-sized business shouldn't have to at least diversity.
Yet another source:
" It turns out we were looking in the wrong place for weapons of mass destruction.
They weren't in Iraq.
They were in Lehman Brothers' portfolio.
The bankrupt investment bank holds as much as 500,000 pounds of uranium yellowcake -- enough to make a nuclear bomb -- it was learned yesterday.
And it's at least as radioactive as the toxic subprime mortgages that brought down the storied Wall Street icon.
And not only does Lehman have the yellowcake, it may have to eat it, too."
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04152009/news/nationalnews/lehman_has_tons_of_nuke_wate_164480.htm
back on topic of the markets. you want to see efficient markets in action?
from the mortgage space (mortgage insurers to be exact) check out this action
TGIC - SharpCharts Workbench : StockCharts.com
Now look at the earnings report from today, after hours (hmm, after hours Friday?):
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
WINSTON-SALEM, N.C., Aug. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Triad Guaranty Inc. (Nasdaq: TGIC - News) today reported a net loss for the quarter ended June 30, 2009 of $359.4 million compared to a net loss of $55.2 million for the first quarter of 2009 and a net loss of $198.8 million for the second quarter of 2008. The 2009 second quarter diluted loss per share was $23.91 compared to a diluted loss per share of $3.68 for the 2009 first quarter and $13.36 for the second quarter of 2008.
23.91 a share loss, after the stock had a 110% increase from the weekly high to the weekly low. needless to say they are down 50% AH.
the casino is open.
I'm out...a friend's moving to Portland and we're celebrating his departure (wait, that didn't come out quite right). Enjoy your BFF.
Money Man (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/7/2009 - 5:50 pm
I want my BFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sung to the tune of:
YouTube -
tying together the two themes, what does it say about the financial industry when an investment bank holds 500,000 pounds of uranium yellowcake? is this really a necessary function for a bank?
" August 7, 2009
The United States has “no intention of sending large numbers of additional troops into Colombia,” U.S. President Barack Obama said Aug. 7, Reuters reported. Speaking to Hispanic reporters, Obama denied reports that the United States is planning to set up military bases in Colombia. He said the United States and Colombia have had a security agreement for many years and the agreement has been updated."
I was startled for a moment, until I realized they were talking about Columbia, not Venezuela.
Finally, please, my Mortgage Insurance Liquidity Facility. Could the need for emergency liquidity be more clear?
Once they get it going I'm going to apply for an inspector position--imagine raiding Triad or MGIC wearing a SIG-MILF jacket.
"tying together the two themes, what does it say about the financial industry when an investment bank holds 500,000 pounds of uranium yellowcake? is this really a necessary function for a bank?"
They might corner the market in angel food cake, and then drive the strawberry growers to the wall.
If Tel Aviv goes boom, I suspect even worse things happen. I worry about Putin letting Iran get a hold of something they should not have, as if the ME erupts in such a way, Russia's oil reserves are worth a lot more.
for those of you who are interested, here is my other post on the employment numbers today:
More on Unemployment
and if you missed it here is the first one, both are fairly long and extensive:
Unemployment Rate Falls
Re: necessary function for a bank?
Perhaps it was a form of super poison pill (a corporate dooms day machine) which they were going to unveil at the next shareholders meeting.
$2.42.9-$2.48.9 here today.
A lot of people here want commodity-backed money--isn't depositing uranium in the bank exactly the kind of thing they're hoping for?
Dead Lehman's switch.
"If Tel Aviv goes boom,"
That might be contained. Suppose Moscow goes boom? We can *** our***** goodbye.
"And not only does Lehman have the yellowcake, it may have to eat it, too.
It can't get rid of the ore, because with the possible exception of North Korea, nobody is willing to cough up the price it wants -- because the uranium market has tanked, sources told The Post.
And the failed firm, which just before imploding acquired the stockpile last fall, is holding off selling until prices improve, the sources said.
"We are not planning to sell at a price that's not advantageous," said a firm official who asked not to be identified."
:stupid:
"Dr. Strangelove: Of course, the whole point of a Doomsday Machine is lost, if you keep it a secret! Why didn't you tell the world, EH?
Ambassador de Sadesky: It was to be announced at the Party Congress on Monday. As you know, the Premier loves surprises."
"because the uranium market has tanked, sources told The Post."
It's not rare. Russia will sell large quantities if the price is right. It's selling right now to the US.
I'm out...a friend's moving to Portland and we're celebrating his departure (wait, that didn't come out quite right). - Y
And that's why Portland will be the first to recover, because it's different here. /snark
Just imagine what's on the financial sector's books now, after they've driven up the markets for damn near every durable commodity (except maybe natural gas where storage is too expensive)!
Also, the hoarding of valuable commodities is one reason I'd want a "hard currency" that isn't actually useful.
Re: Dr. Strangelove
Didn't Dick "THE Dick" Fudd run Lehman? He looked like Dr. Strangelove.
"It was to be announced at the Party Congress on Monday. As you know, the Premier loves surprises."
The Premier was based on Khrushchev. I've just read that he called Voroshilov - later, when it was safe - "The biggest sack of **** in the Army."
It's 6:07 in the east. Maybe GA's off the hook this week.
"Also, the hoarding of valuable commodities is one reason I'd want a "hard currency" that isn't actually useful."
Yes!
Re: Maybe GA's off the hook this week.
Oh, I forget. This is BFF Furlough day.
pico, Corus going down tonight would be my guess.
Re: I am the only person left on the planet who
There are two of us. I have a cell-phone, but it's a corporate one. It goes when I go.
I got you beat. No cellphone.
Here is my throwdown. I have NEVER set foot in a Walmart.
More like:
"General Jack D. Ripper: He said war was too important to be left to the generals. When he said that, 50 years ago, he might have been right. But today, war is too important to be left to politicians. They have neither the time, the training, nor the inclination for strategic thought. I can no longer sit back and allow Communist infiltration, Communist indoctrination, Communist subversion and the international Communist conspiracy to sap and impurify all of our precious bodily fluids. "
Here is my throwdown. I have NEVER set foot in a Walmart. - bd
Can't beat that. Although I have not eaten fast food in 5 years-- does that count?
What's fast food?
Lehman Hadron Collider - like the Russian cruiser Aurora - sparked the new era. Should we call it the Yellowcake?
banker + molotov cocktail
Two down - both in FL. Get on that Liz!
"But today, war is too important to be left to politicians. "
Yeah, it was a very clever, mordantly funny film. I love it. But you have to agree that the military types on all sides have been sitting on apocalyptic weapons for decades, and we're all still here, not floating around as atmospheric vapor. I've spoken with types on both the east side and the west side. They are most eminently sane and they have kept us all alive. Though there have been close calls.
Re: Can't beat that. Although I have not eaten fast food in 5 years-- does that count?
I go to SamsClub. Damn! I figured I'd win this one. Still no bragging rights. So, the chics will KEEP ignoring me!
scone (profile) wrote on Fri, 8/7/2009 - 6:10 pm
Here is my throwdown. I have NEVER set foot in a Walmart. - bd
Can't beat that. Although I have not eaten fast food in 5 years-- does that count?
Is this the Left Coast version of measuring PeePees?
So, for those interested in a skeptical but knowledgeable take on more sciency-sorts of things, I might suggest the "What's New" weekly feature. What's New by Bob Park - Friday, December 4, 2009
By the way, if we want a "hard currency" (limited, fixed, controlled supply) that isn't going to suck up great quantities of materials that are actually useful, we need some limited-run, hard-to-counterfeit collectible sort of item, made out of cheap, readily available, durable materials. I can think of a number of interesting possibilities...
community national down.
2 or 3?
Re: General Jack D. Ripper
Who was based on the real General Curtis LeMay.
Community National Bank of Sarasota County
First State Bank
???
First State Sarasota assets $463M. Half a B$ there. FDIC hit about $100M. Although FDIC is about to have to tap its Treasury credit line, that's still pocket change...
Community National was about 1/5 that size.
Since I'm measuring bank failures in Billion-$ of assets, we're still only at the "half a bank" failure point.
Well, I must say that Bob Park defended Forrest Mims III against Scientific American. Didn't he? If so I'll give him that much.
Community National's equity is now a negative $751,000, with losses eating away at more than $8.4 million in capital so far this year.
How long the Venice-based bank can survive with negative equity is up to regulators like the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.
Losses mount for two banks | HeraldTribune.com | Sarasota Florida | Southwest Florida's Information Leader
Do I seem anxious?
Stearns Bank with the vacuum cleaner today, sucking up failed Florida banks.
"
Furthermore, there should be a firm limit to the amount of the fantasy credit, so that neither party (nor both together) could subsequently agree to increase it.
That's what reserve requirements are supposed to do: put a cap on the loans any bank can have outstanding at any time. To be honest, I'm having trouble thinking of a better way--although certainly we could do a far, far better job of maintaining and enforcing those requirements.
"
A credit ponzi system that doesn't consistently grow implodes under it's own weight. The removal of reserve requirements, off-balance sheet sivs, dropping reserve requirements against most types of bank deposits were all part of the 20 year attempt to keep the system going.
It appears that historically 80 years is approximately the maximum length of time that any ponzi credit system has historically lasted. It will be interesting to see what happens this time around.
Headlines:
"Bank in Venice sinks"
"Last state of First State Bank: closed"
Man, the Sarasota bank assets were acquired by a bank in Minnesota. What's up with that?
Since I'm measuring bank failures in Billion-$ of assets, we're still only at the "half a bank" failure point.
Zeno's Fiduciary Paradox?
It gets cold in Minnesota!
Halo... Are you kidding. Ben has all the cards. China can not afford,over the short term, to damage our market. 8% growth is a bitch. Japan is screwed no matter the length of the term.
We have at YEARS to get our house in order.
All said I have no confidence we will take the necessary actions.
Google Trends says:
"Your terms - lehman brothers uranium - do not have enough search volume to show graphs."
Is this the Left Coast version of measuring PeePees?
....................
I'm both ends of the spectrum....
milked my own cow, but also texted from the top of Mt St Helens.
Wisdom Speaker (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 8/7/2009 - 6:20 pm
Headlines:
"Bank in Venice sinks"
"Last state of First State Bank: closed"
Man, the Sarasota bank assets were acquired by a bank in Minnesota. What's up with that?
Florida has allowed out-of-state banks to operate there since I was a kid. NCNB was BIG there in the early '70s.
Sarasota bank assets were acquired by a bank in Minnesota. What's up with that?
Answering my own question -- Maybe the owner of the Minnesota bank is getting ready to retire "Down South"?
Pavel: I doubt it...
Gardner quotes University of Maryland physicist Robert Park, who stated that Mims has "established that he doesn't have credibility to write about science" if he rejects evolutionism.
btw, it's hard to believe that if you lost Gardner's vote, that he had a chance. Gardner is responsible for many folks getting into science and math.
In any case, I doubt mims would have done the homemade laser. I can't imagine that being published today by anyone, for that matter. Great project...
Doc- thank you!
I'm a big Gillian Welsh fan and that link was just what I needed. great find
Real estate is three things: Cyclical, Seasonal and Emotional. Currently we are faced with all three, which is a rare. There is always a seasonal uptick in sales, but expect to see delcines in the fall. accuriz.com/RealEstate_Reports.aspx