HHB took over from Athena when she retired the Sonoma Housing Bubble Blog and has been doing a good job.Sebastopol looks bad as I mentioned in the last thread,but Piedmont is still a sweet spot.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature.
The Senate passed the extension Thursday evening. The House approved the measure last week.
I saw your interesting comments on another thread regarding your son's living situation. I need a commuter room in berkeley area for the next 9 months or so (just a place to park and may be a place for a cot, no kitchen phone or laundry neccessary). Maybe we should talk.... Seems like some of the other 2 units are empty? Let me know if you read this message so I know when I have succeeded in reaching out to you, regardless of your answer.
This might be a help to those who keep complaining there are no reasonably priced homes in the SF Bay area,there sure will be.Take a look at Marin,The Oakland hills and Palo Alto for starters.
And yet, a little scroll to the east shows that Greenwich doesn't have that many foreclosures. Stamford, yes. Norwalk, yes. Bridgeport, yes. The population is higher in the cities of course, but it does seem to show that the affluent communities have more resources to fall back on than the cities.
but everyone i know from there says that everyone wants to live there because it's so special. just like 50 million places in florida, california, washington, etc...
You'll never see this but instead of burning notes, people used to engrave their names and the payoff date on a brass disk and embed it in the Newel post. I've seen it done fairly recently - well, twenty years ago anyway - and now it's a pleasing part of the house's history. They didn't have a circular stair, so chose the topmost post at the second floor landing. Very pretty.
Funny in our town how there are clusters so dense they obliterate the image. They're all in places touted as best location (location! location!) until recently - Southern Longboat Key and the ubiquitous 'West-of-the-Trail'. Now why is that?
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature.
Just like we did for housing - stimulus encouraged us to build 10 years of houses in 5 years, and pay 2x as much for them. The current stimulus is no different.
It degrades economic structure to create short-term growth.
Stimulus = Bubble
Stimulus = Bad Debt
Stimulus = Robbery of Savings
Stimulus = Using Stimulants in place of Learning or Excercise
Stimulus = Treating Curable Cancer by hiding it with Morphine
Stimulus = Economic Growth and Structure determined by politics, not science or engineering
Stimulus = A punch in the face to wake up your sick grandmother every morning
The word Stimulus is no diferent from others like "4 gram heroin injection" or "8-ball enema augmented crack pipe apparatus".
For anyone in California who doesn't mind spending a few bucks for some "entertainment". foreclosureradar.com is awesome. And it's up to the minute up to date...
Gee C4C has totalled $3B or 25% of the AIG passthrough to GS. It sure has accopmlished a lot more. Over 3 years about 700 M fewer gallons of gas burned, thus less of an import burden, newer cars have better saftey features, so fewer deaths, and some of that $3B is going to come back through taxes of people at the auto factories and show rooms, not to mention any multiplier effects when they spend their paychecks. It will also result in lower losses at taxpayer owned GM and Chrysler. Seems like a pretty good program to me, although perhaps a bit on the generous side, might have gotten almost the same response with $2500/$3500 and gotten more cars out of it for the same $3 B
Oakland is interesting,quite a bit in "New" developments,quite a bit in the hills,but the 'Hood is oddly unrepresented.I wonder if that area has already been through the mill,or if this is an understandable "Forget about it" reaction to an 80% plus drop? I saw a 40% drop on a Sebastopol property in 2 years and that is a NICE place to live
interesting map!
that property for 3 million in NYC on N Moore might the building John John Kennedy lived in with his wife...
if I remember he bought the place for 1.5 and it was later resold to an acrtor/director ...
....
I knew all of those buildings in Harlem were over priced the moment they designated part of it SoHA (south Harelm)
and they changed west 110th to Central Park North
Nihilist,getting by,put my Broker's license on ice a while ago.Crops are starting to come in now ,which is nice.Still dealing with an insane ex and will be for 10 more years.
"He’s non-executive chairman at Ripplewood Holdings LLC, the New York-based private-equity firm, and the Readers Digest Association Inc., the statement said. He’s also on the board of Campbell Soup Co. and Brussels-based investment firm RHJ International SA, AIG said."
I think it's wonderful that these great men sit on so many boards of large public corporations. It gives them insight.
AIG has evidently decided that paying Liddy $1/year was excessive.
it's interesting that this post was centered on NYC metro region RE and within one comment
it reverts to Sonoma, Phx, DFW... hey kids... it's Manhattan! don't know squat about the other boroughs
and have no clue what's across the Hudson but I know that island like the proverbial back of the hand...
let's face it, it's the greatest city on Earth and I've been to them all (and yes, I once lived in SF and LA and Boston)
nice places all BUT!
....
1 Currency
his building was 2 doors down from Walkers bar/rest - his family sold it to that guy who made Brothers McMullan
for around 3.8(?) I think... the extra 800k was the celebrity tax... I do love that street, it's the Park Ave of TribeCa... 20 years ago I had my year on this
one loft for years..
....
there is a property listed for 330k on west 26th that is no doubt a studio, I was gnashing my teeth on this topic the other night about how you could've bought the same prop for 50k in '94...
memo to self - time to get back to the City!
....
CR always says Hope is not a strategy and he is correct unless you're trying to make an Indie and
can get Ted Hope aboard - which I am now working on
hopefully this link works...I was checking out where a certain special someone I know lives, and in this area of Brooklyn (which I am sure will shock the hell out of most of you who have preconceptions of the place but have never been there) there are a lot of mansion type places, old, charming, a decent bit of property. Anyway, this place, perhaps a previous foreclosure, sold for 900k. All the stuff around it is about 50% more.
I also have a relative who lives a couple of miles away in Boreum Hills. His brownstone got up to about $2 mil, but according to him now, nothign is selling. He was going to sell, but missed the market. FOrtunately his basis is 600k.
But my point is that the asking and wishing and zillow prices are all garbage now. Even in the areas which dont YET have the foreclosures, like Piedmont CA, and Carrol Gardens in Brooklyn, those are coming. They wont show up until OPTION armageddon time.
Come on back Duke, I'll back an Indie (if the financials tank) .Soho may get affordable again.
By the way I worked for NABET 15 briefly before law school. Some talented Ballhaus's. I believe they folded into IATSE when a lot of the business went to FL.
Well, I'm out in the boonies for sure, and there are a few I've been watching that are not on here, so I'm guessing the data is late and/or incomplete, but we don't have NOD filings and such that make life easy for finding good information. Neat tool though!
value range...look at the bottom, and then take a guess at a percentage discount off that, based on the loans structure underlying the last few years of purchases, and the places employment base by industry. Good think for NY that the banks have extracted all the taxpayers money to keep these prices well higher than they should be. Wonder how long that can last?
Nihilist,I bought a lottery ticket.Unlike Real Estate there IS a mathematical chance of coming out ahead.A 1$ ticket when the pot is $102MM...If I win I'll consider chartering a plane for 2 to Costa...And GDD,iedmot is in a WORLD of hurt,which will be real obvious in a year.Heloc heaven.
"Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature."
If it's good enough for Germans it's good enough for me.
Coinz
yep, no doubt that's what Rome felt like in the day...
1 Currency:
John John didn't own the building just a loft in it that was around 2200 sq feet if memory serves
just checked a property up on 7 east 110th - a 1 bed selling for 440k, guess they didn't get the memo
that it's now called Central Park North, besides that's a really crappy end of the street...
I spent a few months up in Harlem in '07 and was shocked to see all the re-development and
the pricing to buy or rent... they are taking it on the nose now...
Pity me, that I gave up my rent stabilized apt off CPW over 4 years ago...
....
I currency, yeah, rent control is your friend but try and find one... I suspect if I want
back in to a decent apt under rent stab it will cost me 20 to 27,000 in key money (that's
where you pay off the landlord to give you the lease)
I worked in downtown B'klyn in the 90's. A friend used to urge me to buy a brownstone in Boerum Hill every week. I didn't want debt. The prices tripled...
I ran into him in early '07, and said I was ready to buy... He said no, better wait. First notice I got of this crisis. After reading up (mainly Reggie Middleton) I decided to keep renting and short financials. Now I'm really ready to buy, but for the moment still shorting financials.
Yogi, my relative got lucky...he bought in 2001 for 600k, but that was because it was a serious fixer. Good thing his Dad works in construction and has connections to cheap product as well as the ability to install it - 8 years later, the house is just about finished Ha. So he has made out like a bandit in the end, with minimal investment aside from a lot of sweat equity. However, the tripling in price from 2001 on HIS property is not normal. Fixed up places on his street that year went for at least a million. I am SO glad i talked him out of taking out equity from that home and buying another property in bed-sty in 2004. Look at that area on google and you'll see how decimated it is already by foreclosures.
Well, you could play dumb, pay the key money (make sure it's to the actual owner), then sue, as it's illegal. You need not pay a dime while the suit is pending, which you will probably win one day.
lottery tickets -- meh, sounds good. i play megabucks every month. $21 gives me about 1 minute of play and i'm out. my EAT puts are working out but i want out of the financialized world. my cash is going to more tangible things from now on. i've lost interest in trading stocks. i'm a hoarder now. land, pm's, etc...
! currency
yes, it's IATSE now, Local 51 and their ilk
you worked with Michael Ballhause the DP?
...
much to my chagrin I just checked the entry dates for Sundance,
the cut-off for shorts is Sept 21, I was working on a reel over here
(that's say 10 minutes of your script as a proof of concept and your skills
in directing) and decided to cut some to make a 5 minute short...
I was going by the old Sundance calendar on submissions (I've been there
3 times) No way I can cut the film over here, I need the polish of a pro on the
sound and editing of which I know who to call in the City
Wide-eyed Indiana greenhorn comes to big city, where they fleece him out of his life savings from hard work on the farm.
Represents himself in court. Hard-nosed Brooklyn judge with a heart of gold tells Wall Street landlord to go fuck himself. Jury awards punitive damages. Epilogue: turns out the Duke set it all up, donates half to one-world currency fund...
For grins, I clicked on the foreclosure link and put in the zip code for my boyhood home and parents house.
Their is a big foreclosure marker at the street and cross-street for the house.
It has the right number of bedrooms and bathrooms.
I am totally freaked out.
I know that the mortgage was paid off thirty-five years ago. My father and I carefully "marked" the property lines one night after sharing several beers in celebration.
Economists in a Bloomberg survey estimate that a Labor Department report today will show unemployment rose to 9.6 percent, the highest level since 1983. The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits last week fell more than economists predicted, according to data released yesterday, a sign some employers have stopped paring staff.
“The rate of deterioration in unemployment is likely to ease, but there are doubts we’ll see as much improvement as the market would like,” said Kazuhiro Takahashi, a general manager at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Tokyo.
There has to be something seriously wrong with this map - I did my whole zip [about 18,000 people - probably 5-6K SFH] and only 10 foreclosures listed... what's with that? I have a realtor buddy telling me he's getting 30 listings at a pop straight from the bank. Aren't they counted or is this messed up?
dryfly - i think there is sufficient evidence that this isnt updated as well as it should be. But it is still quite interesting, and beating it up here will hopefully light a fire under Google's arse to pay more money to make it more useful.
doc - baby's got the bends, oh no....funny you posted this...i was just listening to Radiohead's worst performance ever...the live NPR show broadcast from the Santa Barbara bowl...thank goodness the many times Ive seen them Thom has been "on"
Feels like Bear Stearns time? Or is it a head-fake?
Kicking myself for what I did. 2 days ago I bought Aug SLW 10 calls; last night was pondering what to do, wanted to get up early and flip them (they were about 40% up in 1 day). Had I just put in a market order for open I would've been fine. Where's popeye? Not like it really matters as I've got a bunch of puts that will do fine... but I may have timed the top perfectly (or everyone was effin' front running me!!).
Damn this board; would be better to be naive and have lost all my money in the crash than spin it all away like a trader.
YLSP - might be the headfake...i still feel like we need to go a wee bit more irrational before it blows up again. That is more likely to come AFTER we get the q3gdp, but the q4gdp will be the crushing confirmation for the second leg down to retest the lows. Or maybe I dont know wtf im talking about. Could be the negra modelo talking. Perhaps I should speak Spanish the rest of the night. Si, claro.
John Hughes died. Guess he had a heart attack while walking in Central Park.
" Once having begun work as a screenwriter, he pursued the craft relentlessly.
In the 1991 interview, he said: “If I’m on a roll, and I finish a script at 3:00, I’ll start another at 3:02.”
and they read like they were written in that fashion.
Bet he was overweight Chicago style.
....
hell, I've got stories I put down for years at a time when it goes into the cul de sac. speaking of stories
I'm on my last one for my collection of 10 for the decade, the finale is a doozy!
funny, my creative abilities wane greatly when I'm in Asia, production slows to a crawl ...
but get me back on the island!
....
Ted Hope and I have been discussing the use of crowdsourcing used for example in the NetFlix
1 million $ contest. he's trying to adapt some of its principles to indie film making ...
nobody gets into indies for the money, it's the passion...
our few discussions - he's a very busy man - kind of reminded me of
1 Currency's theory of 1 Currency ... interesting in concept but how do we implement?
Andy Xie says China is a 'giant Ponzi scheme' fed by new investors hoping to get rich. Of course, the China story is an attractive one. China's growth rate is spectacular. Even in a worldwide financial meltdown...and the biggest depression since the '30s...China is still growing at greater than 8% per year - or so the figures tell us. New cities are still being built...at a breathtaking pace. Stocks on the Shanghai exchange are up 80% so far this year. China has the biggest pile of cash on the planet - $2 trillion worth. And it has more bright, well-educated engineers, accountants and economists than anywhere else... In fact, it has so many economists trained at Western universities, it is almost sure to blow itself up...
Maybe this is the Chinese Century. Maybe it is not. Either way, it seems inevitable to us that the Chinese bubble economy is going to pop. Banks are lending three times as much as they lent last year. You can't increase lending at that rate and still maintain credit quality - if there was any in the first place. A lot of buildings are going up that won't find tenants. A lot of factories are expanding that won't find customers. A lot of speculations are going on that investors will later regret. That's just how a bubble works!
Mr. Xie says, for example, that the cost of property in China is about the same as in the United States. But wait, the average income in China is only 1/7th what it is in the USA. How can the Chinese afford American prices? Well, they can't. They're all betting on the 'greater fool theory' - that they can pay any price, because some greater fool will come along and pay more. Trouble with that is that the Greatest Fool of All finally shows up...and then the whole structure collapses.
..."
it is full of red dots and how in the hell did we do this to ourselves. all these foreclosures now and the ones coming up the road, the us is red.
put in my sisters town and there is foreclosure on her street! and one of the streets we used to live has another,this brings it really home. im suprised that google is allowed to do this, sort of makes you wonder about the recovery.
mdlim80-
I'll pass it on to him, but I doubt he'll be in a position to help since he has no ownership rights and he's a straight arrow on ethical issues.
Dryfly,GooGle and zillow spend the $ where they think it wise and that means they will not cover rural areas well,ever.Or poor ones either.Take a look at Oakland Ca and tell me why the flatlands show so few foreclosures? I doubt that vultures are buying many SFH's to rent out there,the landlord/tenant laws are so skewed in favor of tenants that you would have to have a negative IQ to even consider it.
well, remember dry .... flyover as benefitted from a very different economic dynamic, plus, a lot less home appreciation and probably a lot less equity extraction. If there was none of that nonsense, the situation wouldnt be nearly so bad in some places. As I said earlier, one of the things Im most happy about is convincing a relative who made one good investment not to ruin it by staying at the casino, extracting "equity" and placing another bet. Each progressive bet made in this casino looked more enticing, but had worse odds, and they are all coming up losses now.
I think you said your flyover was MN, am I right? Mixed there...some auto sector fallout, but not a huge runup in prices in most areas. Without that, no extraction. And then again, in those lower placed prices, the foreclosure action was likely more of subprime variety, and that whole thing is pretty much contained, ha...i mean contained to the past.
My plan is to endow a prize, so the young geek/hack Linus Torvalds of the world will go to work. Like E-bay, Amazon or Mozilla, you set it up free to use and hope it takes off.
As an indie lover, I'm not in it for the money either.
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 10:11 pm
i think there is sufficient evidence that this isnt updated as well as it should be.
Updated? I know I live in flyover and don't count but they have to be at least an order of magnitude off - if not more.
Either that or the recession just flew right over our heads going back and forth from coast to coast. [/snark]
I think your right but for the wrong reasons. All of the listings I could find in my neighborhood (SE WI) were held by national lenders, but no regionals or community banks. That being said, some of the listings were duplicates, a bunch had already been sold (going back as far as April), and a lot I couldn't find at all (and I do this for a living).
picosec,I really wonder if the banks just gave up on the oakland flat lands.I saw stuff sell for 600 a sq ft at the peak in areas I would hesitate to drive through at noon on sunday with a cocked and locked 1911.I did that a few times,when I had to but I was not comfy.
I think you said your flyover was MN, am I right? Mixed there...some auto sector fallout, but not a huge runup in prices in most areas. Without that, no extraction. And then again, in those lower placed prices, the foreclosure action was likely more of subprime variety, and that whole thing is pretty much contained, ha...i mean contained to the past.
I'm on the edge of small town rural to almost 'exurban'... we were one of the last areas still classified as rural between Rochester MN [Mayo Clinic driven 'prosperity'] and the Twin Cities... we are mostly factory blue collar, small biz & services... not many high rollers.
Still only 8-10 BKs when I KNOW there are at least 10-20 times as many if not more? Maybe they are on the honor system and the locals just FORGOT to report.
Tom, I hear ya'. But then I always try to remind myself that the vast majority of people who live there are doing the best they can and for most that's pretty damn good under the circumstances.
I have to go into that neighborhood fairly frequently and so far haven't had any problems. I try to look like I'm neither a weakling nor a threat.
1 Currency -
"Represents himself in court." works in the movies but not in real life
been there and done that a few times... housing court judges tend to bend over
backward for the tenants most of the time until they don't like my case in '05,
... I was played by my landlord like a sucker ... should have never signed the stip
until I had good legal advice! (must admit I was in a real funk and not thinking too clearly)
well, im just trying to think up theoreticals dry - all this points to is that the reality we are trying to understand is much worse than the official statistics.
And what exactly do you think that means for the banks, especially after you apply the same concept to the commercial RE sector?
Only issue now is WHEN to go short, rather than if...
Last fall, Roubini estimated about 3.5 trillion in losses for the banks. I don't have a number handy, but I doubt write downs have reached a trillion yet.
We are probably about 1/3 of the way through this -- for the banks. We still have a huge private debt overhang.
Every solution I can think of causes extreme pain somewhere to many people.
But there could be many tricks of financial wizardry of which I am unaware.
picosec,people are people everywhere.I had remarkably few problems managing property there, considering.But I was not buying drugs or women,was alert,and was there to do my business and leave.There were and are some very dysfunctional and violent people in that town who will try to kill you for looking at them in what they consider the wrong way,or because you are white.I had that happen about every 5 years on average.
I don't see how things get better. Thinking of the entier process from properties to banks, ot pension funds. I just don't see how we don't fall to the bottom of the well.
I think I found the Google issue with East Oakland and probably other high-foreclosure areas. If you aren't zoomed in enough, Google gives up and shows no red dots. Then, when you do zoom in, they pop up.
Well I zoomed into my location and nothing - including two I strongly suspect are REOs - no shows on this map. Maybe we really are all above average...[/snarkity max snark]
picosec,it is something to see,isn't it? I know someone who sold a beat up sears "Jack and Jill" house on the 2700 block of 26th ave 94601 for $550k in 2005.
Tom and picosec
I know about walking through some rough areas in NYC back in the early 80s to 90s...
can't look like a wuss but can't look like a tough guy either
....
BankFailure .... put the Duke down for 6 BFFs...
....
just checked the zip of my podunck Indiana town, just a handful out of a pop of 19,000
... can't be right but then again I own some rentals there and 40% of the town is on some
sort of aid. property prices there had very little appreciation in the last 10 years
acc. to a banker friend the appreciation rate is about 1 1/2 % a year...
maybe Google says to flyover - screw you!
tom, hell, some rinky dink 1000 sq ft shacks in fruitvale got up to that price in 2006. Sadly, in 2003 a friend of mine bought one for 410k. Last I checked, $250k. However, Im sure it would fetch more if she stopped paying, got foreclosed, and let the vultures bid. Ha.
Speaking of Fruitvale and E Oakland (not meaning to turn this into a private conversation, but it could be instructive), to what extent do you think fraud played a role in the run-up in prices in that area?
only because they shut down the starbucks. hahaha. just kidding I dunno. But picosec, I would think they didnt need a lot of fraud. They had TONS of suckers. However, the insiders, lenders, brokers, RE agents...were all loathsome. I met many over the years and was invariably revolted by their delusion. I made a point of telling some how I thought they were disgusting for sending people to their doom and profiting from it. Not ONE got it.
My daughter lives up the hill from there and there are a number of boutique style shops going in, such as a branch of La Farine bakery. Farmer Joes is making a big difference, but it's still definitely a challenge to get the people who can afford these things to consider shopping there.
Just checked my zip and everything seems pretty accurate from my driving around the hood lately. Too damn bad a lot of them are equal or better than an extra 5-700 sq. ft. and 1 more bathroom. They're taking about, oh, 65-70% haircut to dump that house on the market against mine the next hood over subtracting the above space/accoutrements.
I'm almost certain I'm more solvent than them, but if I wanted to sell I couldn't. Frack!
Picosec,fraud has a much higher influence on the price of real estate than it does in most other markets,both because it is priced on the margins and because of the emotions involved.The emotional buttons I saw most frequently pushed were "Nest" and "Safety" because your home would make up for the SS that wouldn't be there for you.I only takes one or two venal appraisers to run up "Valuations" and once things get going...
Farmer Joe's,the bakery and peet's do make a difference as does the library and park.and in 10 minutes you can be in redwoods out of sight and sound of the city.But the schools...
The reason for my "fraud" question is that on Zillow I've seen some (not a large percentage) sales pairings that had to involve a bogus appraisal. Also see some where the loan greatly exceede the sale price in a short time. No personal knowledge at all, that's why I asked.
People get desperate when bubbles burst,and fraud becomes obvious.Lack of enforcement sure hasn't helped.The worst abusers I am acquainted with did not actually break any laws,they were grossly and obscenely unethical.If Duelling were legal I would have called them out and killed them.lower than the diseased slug molesters that spawned them.
Lots of dots in the mid range areas in Phx. More than I expected in the upper end too. The xurbs are toast, but I knew that already.
Wonder where they find a market for those, the only thing selling here is the very discounted low end stuff to investors and some tax credit first time buyers.
My neighborhood in N.Houston, built 1977, shows relatively few foreclosures, since there's a pretty stable low-med income population here. Decent 1500 - 2000 sqft houses on decent lots.
However, I used to work in a software company, and quite a few of the higher level 6 figure guys bought nice 4000 sqft (mc)mansions in Kingwood, 50 minute commute from W.Houston, tiny lots, just East of the airport.
Tom Stone,
are you familiar with that scene in Glengarry Glen Ross by David Mamet, which
I think he won the Pulitzer for, where Ricky is selling that couple land in FLA?
a classic!
in my early days in NYC I worked for two very well known architects Agrest & Gandelsonas who were quite hot at the moment...
I remember they were trying to sell this property in the Hamptons on Georgica Pond for 225,000, this
included their plans for a house... luckily, for them the wife came form the 2nd richest Jewish family in Argentina so they
could float their design studio and commercial property ventures...
I remember showing a buiding on 22nd that needed major renovations starting with new floors, we were asking 675K...
that building today? 5 loft floors in a great location? maybe 11-12 mil...
josap (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 9:32 pm
Lots of dots in the mid range areas in Phx. More than I expected in the upper end too. The xurbs are toast, but I knew that already.
It isn't a feature of the exurbs. It is a feature of marginal building in response to the false signals from the bubble. The same factors have killed cenurban condos and the ill fated mixed use concept.
Agronox,did you ever make it to Anne's Cafe? Now gone,was at fruitvale and Bienati way,it was a landmark.5 pounds of omelet and hashbrowns for $4.25 in the day.and good.
Still happening here on the "immune" west side of LA. Was looking at a rental the other day and got to talking to the realtor. Actually, I mostly listened. She explained how I should buy now, as prices were headed back up. Sales were up, and there were cash buyers in the 'hood. Basically spewing the tried and true "buy now or..." fear mantra. And she was good. If I was an "average" buyer who got info only from realtors, I might have bit.
So... I looked up her property records. She bought a house in the area she "specializes" in '2 years ago for 1.25 million and put 250k down. Not much is selling here, because no one is lowering their price, but of the stuff that does sell, comps to her place are selling for 8-950k (still grossly overpriced) and still falling. The conflict of interest is ridiculous. I really hate these people. Especially because many people still listen to their "advice" I hope she loses the house.
Here I was worried about the swine flu, and I see the nation has Kitchen-Pox... All the kitchens get red dots on them, your wallet starts stinging, your investment portfolio itches all the time so you can't sleep, and you feel like crying.
Be up early tomm, if you are on the west coast. (early as in 6am, before the market opens) I told you once, I told you twice, dont be holdin long in this market.
nytol....
argh...dont even get to leave before I have to respond...
Agrophobonox - yes, Ditmas park. When I first learned of this place, I was so wacked out, because years earlier, I thought all of Crooklyn was rowhouses, and shate.
It just hit me strange. I see the charts, I see the signage. I read the reports.
Maybe the red looks too much like blood on the streets.
There are families in those homes, or were. Most of those people didn't understand what they were getting into really and most don't understand what happened to their plan. They just know it is gone.
We need to require some type of education or classes before we let people buy real estate. Most people can't understand a lease, A sales contract, loan doc and escrow papers are way past them. Unless they are willing to sit for hours as each step is explained they never really know what they are signing. At some point in the process they just sign because they are emotionally commited to the house.
josap, when people are told that RE only goes up, what exactly did they have to worry about? I mean, people who STUDIED and finance and econ thought that was possible depsite the evidence. How would ordinary folks think theyd possibly have anything to worry about? I mean, you buy in, however you do it, and you are set for life, that is how RE was pitched to them. They were the lucky ones.
Im only surprised that more people arent jaded by the whole ridiculous scam process after all of this. Sheep, meet sheers.
You are so right. The weak, the ill informed, the gullible and there are millions amongst us, they always pay the heaviest price for the chicanery of others. There is blood on the streets and one of these, never mind...
Following the bubble for as long as I have I'm emotionally and intellectually hardened against your entirely reasonable suggestions. I wish I thought education would make a difference but as you note messing with peoples' emotions is probably not going to end well.
Driving around town yesterday, there are waaaayyy too many SFRs with browned-off, gone-to-seed lawns - one or more on every block, it seemed. Never seen it like this before. Some of the houses are obviously vacant; most are occupied. I'm wondering if these are homeowners who have stopped paying and are waiting for a NOD? Or tenants whose landlords are in default and have stopped paying the gardener?
Makes me want to knock on doors and ask what's up.
A few days ago as I was driving to work I noticed a U-Haul being loaded at a home near the one I currently rent (in a very nice neighborhood at a very nice monthly figure after selling my home for a decent profit in 2007). I notice that it is listed on the Google map as a pre-foreclosure.
Another anecdote. Federal government seems to be in hiring mode, across the board. Have heard of expansion in several departments. Come to think of it, haven't heard anything about federal cut-backs, except for the USPS. State and local governments are all over the news with their budget cuts. Why not the feds too? (rhetorical question.)
strange, 13 months ago when I first found this site which has taken a lot of time from me (to wit, I'm supposed to be churning
a few masterpieces - yet had I not waded into a bit of research on CDSs my story formerly titled Deere John would not now be called
Yield ... that is the cost of sitting on material! 9/11 gutted two well crafted stories of mine, it's only now that I see a way out )
and has yet to reap me much benefit but I still hope.
....
I have argued to Ken Coop & CR that if you Ignore someone your comments should automatically be eliminated as well, why must I read the comments
of someone who doesn't return the courtesy? it is a question of equity. if someone has Ignored me I don't want to read what they have to say, period.
I don't care if they have discovered a Grand Unified Theory. this will also cut down on the reading workload on my side.
Wow. Here I thought my town was Special! about 10 foreclosures here, including a couple million+ houses. This is in an area right outside of NYC, with a school district that ranks in the top 50 in the country. This map really hits home.
I added the foreclosureradar search tool to my site, it is updated much more regularly than the google data. But I haven't found a site that is perfect yet. There are a lot of changes going on in the marketplace.. many aren't accounting properly for the NOD rescissions and cancellations. Or if the NOD is filed and the NTS gets delayed due to loan mod efforts the NOD can stop from showing even though the home is still in process.
for the record I have never put a single User on Ignore... does that mean I read their comments
with the kind of focus and respect say like a Rabbi might read the Torah, no. Take Jas. For me
he was like a bad club comedian where I find myself studying the label on the beer in my hand...
I don't think CR gets the ideas of JS Mill or for that matter Oliver Wendell Holmes when it comes to
free speech. the marketplace of ideas means exactly that! not a rigged marketplace like what we
have here.
I hadn't really noticed because Oxnard is such a huge blur of NOD, NTS and REO relative to the rest of the county. I did notice the 2 commercial foreclosures today in Ventura County, a strip mall in Oxnard and a self storage place in Camarillo. A precursor to many more im sure. Have you noticed anything interesting?
OT/ really
One of the two journalists held captive for months in North Korea conceded to relatives after her release on Wednesday that she had “very briefly” crossed into the Communist country, her sister said Thursday.
Laura Ling, 32, a reporter with Current TV — planned to write an editorial explaining the events that led North Korean authorities to detain her and a fellow American journalist, Euna Lee, 36. But Ms. Ling, speaking by telephone on CNN Thursday evening in her first interview since the release, revealed that the two women did apparently cross into North Korea from China as they were researching a story on human trafficking on May 17. The women were subsequently convicted and sentenced to 12 years hard labor.
“She did say that they touched North Korean territory very, very briefly,” Ms. Ling said of her sister, adding later, “She said that it was maybe 30 seconds, and everything just got sort of chaotic. It’s a very powerful story and she does want to share it.”
....
keep spinning girls... were they playing tag?
share it? yeah, for a million dollar book deal!
If you called her a ninja to her face your face would be ripped off in .03 s... sounds like she is Vietnamese or Cambodian? I'm not familiar with the martial arts of those countries.... I do know a wicked Vietnamese guy who seems like he has all the pressure points memorized and could give you the pinky of death...
There is nothing wrong with people using the ignore button. I'm fine with being ignored. People differ. This isn't a battle broadcast where ideas fight it out merican gladiator style. It is not a marketplace. It is a group conversation. If someone bores you or offends you at a party you turn away, right?
There are many layers to the conversation. Sometimes people are only interested in a certain layer. There is nothing wrong with them having a filter.
Look at it this way. If someone is ignoring you they are saving you the trouble of their vituperative argument against your position. Besides, it probably drives them nuts when you are quoted.
I wish there were more ways for people to self select to leave me alone.
I see a few in the old parts of the harbor headed back to the bank. With such low turnover I was surprised. And look at the new construction fantasy pricing at 1239 Capri Way . I'm also surprised that the Camarillo Applebee's isn't leasing. Maybe the new ill timed light industrial north of the airport will revive the corridor. There's also an interesting Bella Vista home on the list.
as for the Khmer Ninja it's fun to have her do vocalizations like say if
I were captured by the Khmer Rouge and interrogated ... borders almost
on the Kabuki... she makes some really nice guttural sounds between the
English words that scare the crap out of me... sounds like her older sister
of 31, who is drop dead gorgeous but sadly is a full blown lesbian flew the
coop last year - her path was paved gold for her as a lawyer since daddy runs
Battambong (2nd largest city) but I suspect she knows more about papa
than she wants esp about his KR years..
....
of all my travels in Asia I have never heard of anyone having an electrified
living compound complete with large arsenal (he was in the military before they
cam to power in '75... my gf is oblivious
to what dad did in the past, plus she said he never talked about it ... real control freak.
nobody smokes or drinks. she went apeshit the other day when I smoked
a cigar, as if I had a crack pipe in my hand... she does drink now, quite well! and after I took her
to the casino for some blackjack lessons she said daddy was against gambling!
"hey, thanks for the hat tip Dau, won't do me much good when my head is stuck atop a stake!"
Oxnard is especially bad. They basically had a ton of open space (farmland) available during the housing boom and a very willing local government facilitating the entitlement of land. Subprime was huge there. Lots of new homes built right during the peak. Instant negative equity with many marginal borrowers. So. Cal. has a lot of renters that can be turned into owners. Unfortantely the boom made many "owners" in a non-sustainable way. The bust could bring in many sustainable homeowners but TPTB want the old homeowners to keep the homes rather than the ready, willing and able masses sitting on the sidelines.
no shotgun marriage... that's not going to happen....
but I am trying my best to find a middle way for her,
not her way totally and not dad's way (he will think it is)
think of me as the protagonist in Shaw's Pygmalion,
not the screen version, in the original she leaves him for
Freddy.
...
consider, her dad married the mom when she was not quite
14, ( today her mom is 44 and dad 60) he had pick of the litter
so to speak and he chose a tall beautiful half Cambodian and half Thai
woman...
but like in the movie The Asphalt Jungle it's those uncontrollable or hidden
variables that screw up the best laid plans!
Duke,
Didn't realize she was true ninja; probably read it but it didn't stick in my brain.
Some of the amendments in the Senate for Cash for Clunkers were amusing:
Only 3 that were pertinent I think:
- AGI of $50k for individuals (and $75k for joint)
- Regulation that DoT release the data on the program each day
- Allows dealers to donate clunkers to a charity
More amuising amendments:
- Vitter proposed an amendment to end the TARP
- TARP government exit plan, including a few other provisions on management influence
- $15k tax credit for house purchase (Isakson!!!!)
YSLP
not only did he demand that his kids study a multitude of languages and subjects but he
also demanded that they be trained in the marital arts (she had 2 1/2 years of karate, her sister
6... also had knife training - her favorite is a 32 inch blade 2 1/3 inches wide )...
think of them like gangsters from the golden era of the 50s...
he never knows when I hit might be out on him but wanted to make sure
his kids could protect themselves...
when he had her kidnapped from Bangkok 2 years ago in Siam Sq.
he sent 4 men to toss her in the black car with diplo plates
Quick bit on National Income Accounts
The Fed is (almost done?) buying ~$750bn of Agency and $500bn of private MBS. This isn't just a trivial matter of rolling over financing. There should be significant "permanent impairments" (I choose my words carefully out of deference to the Fed's charter that does not allow it to generate losses)
Such permanent impairments are reconciled by assigning the difference as income to the foreclosed borrower, and a negative tally in the investment column. At least that's what I expect, but it is possible that the Fed's losses get moved into the accounts of the Treasury/government. In which case the inverted gains will be filed under Government spending as simple transfers. (yes/no?)
I was doing some thinking about significant changes in sub-sections of the economy. Private credit contracting for the first time ever. Then balancing those negative impacts against increases in Govt/Fed spending (including implied spending from guarantees given expected loss rates) (the loans are tucked in all over the place, you can look at SIGTARP's tally but don't forget the increase in activity at the US Export bank to name one)
Just food for thought.
Counterpointer,
more than a few things coming into alignment. Of the reasons to support the status quo:
Inventory: there cannot be an inventory stocking induced v-shaped economic tsunami until final sales pick up. Every conference call it is the same. Situation stabilized, still waiting for orders to pick up
U-3 Unemployment: There is zealous belief that a peak of which marks the end of recession. Frankly, it doesn't matter if I'm wrong and there isn't a second bump up in unemployment if/when a H2 recovery doesn't materialize. It appears the expectations are of a traditional business/inventory cycle without consideration to unwinding of a credit bubble. Then even if I'm wrong in believing credit is unwinding, the hurdle of generating the necessary returns in absolute amounts for accounting purposes to recycle into the larger subsequent generation of lending after friction losses.... well I can put on some boiling water for tea while I wait it out.
Just as I thought many had a lot to learn about Control Systems Analysis as applied to credit bubbles (or economics in general for that matter), I now think many have a lot to learn about Seasonal variation ex-goldilocks. Just because Furby sales jumped in December 1999, does not mean inventory ever cleared or prices recovered up until today
........
Perhaps I'm the idiot though. Lots of money spent to report expectations for 4%+ GDP growth.
That is ridiculous. What about Net Exports. What about ability to fund the national debt at what would be devastating interest rates. If there is an implicit dollar devaluation to answer those questions, what would that do to capital market availability. Could the US economy grow so much if they had to get 2/3rds of borrowing directly from bank loans and only 1/3rd from capital markets as is the standard abroad, and the reverse of what the status quo is. Is restarting the JIT supply chain stretch weak companies more than they can bear (eg American Axle and Cash for Clunkers)
Months ago I summed up my thoughts as the US/Fed having to run increasingly fast, down a path that narrows and where the dropoff on either side steepens. Inflation/growth on the right, Deflation/defaults on the left. FNM/FRE are going to need how much more money. $1-$2tn? In the very near future. Hasn't been discussed in a single budget. I hope the Treasury has a few people thinking outside their explicitly described contractual responsibilities for "what if?" scenarios like that
If there was a recovery, I would have heard about some great YoY improvements in orders for year end already. The second phase of this thing will be much more cerebral, governments playing games with each other. The actions to date have been boring (and I say that with full respect for everyone who has taken new, strong, and pioneering actions that were both policy and logistical challenges). So enjoy the crash and rebound to for this year's end, because the pussyfooting will be ending.
So, the financials are on a roll due presumably to direct and indirect government subsidy and big auto as well, but staple indicators, to me still seem a bit weak. When is the market going to get wise to this sham?
"General Cable Corporation is engaged in developing, designing, manufacturing, marketing, distributing and installing copper, aluminum and fiber optic wire and cable products. The Company operates in three segments based on geographic regions: North America, which primarily consists of operations in the United States and Canada; Europe and North Africa, and Rest of World (ROW), which consists of operations in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific."
None of this makes any sense to me. According to these maps, the market should be flooded with foreclosures. Yet, few properties in my area, where I have been watching the listings (better parts of Oakland and Alameda) ever make it to the open market. I know there are stories of investors buying in bulk, insiders buying properties, etc but even still they would show up on sales records. I can't understand what kind of game is being played to keep these properties off the market, the complete picture of who is behind it and how they think they will benefit. They can't possibly think that with the numbers of defaults shown in these maps that they can continue to trickle and hold prices high. Lack of resources to process foreclosures does not fully answer this puzzle either. Sales prices in the better parts of the Bay Area remain high and I have to conclude that there is a long way down if these foreclosures are ever brought to market. We are nowhere near the bottom or leveling off point.
I was stunned to see how many red dots there are in San Francisco, yet the prices in SF continue to be sky high and there are few listings.
The biggest mystery of all time (or at least this year) is wtf is going on with all these properties in default.
YLSP
What gets me about Cash for Clunkers is it really is about supporting the new truck and auto sales series.
It's not about mileage -- that solution is a fuel tax increase, or registration fee cut for efficient vehicles depending on how you care to frame it
It's not about jump starting demand -- it cannibalizes used car sales, which believe it or not are probably more likely to contribute towards new spending
Then, what happens when the C4C fund runs out again. You've pulled forward a good chunk of demand. You think automakers are going to let their prices go up?
It has been a relatively good investment to get press coverage for a relatively pitiful amount.
True it will also give a break to some in the supply chain, notably steel mills.
I'm skeptical it would make or break any one company
In any event, this marks the move to a more boring car market. Low price, high reliability, few choices or features... Actually, I don't know about that but it is the logical outcome of lower demand and higher capacity. Have seen preliminary trends towards that in the new car market though. Probably mix in whatever green/electric policy priorities.
The Volkswagen bug (the original) makes for an interesting case study in trends for auto production. Ditto for the differences in Toyota light pickup models around the world over time. Or how about Chrysler. From k-car to fridge in glovebox mobile inside 20 years.
When has Ford scheduled their bankruptcy filing? What law firm will they be hiring?
Duke of Con Dao
Not that I am qualified to judge, but you are weird. You also are a dead ringer for Tom Hanks in your Youtube profile picture. I wish you continued bliss over in the jungles of the land time forgot. As for wanting to set up online network with goal of facilitating indie movies. Funnyordie.com is probably the current leader at that for now. Concept does have interesting prospects as big studios have cut back on number of films in order to boost profitability. Change happened back around the Writers strike, in order to stretch out pipelines. I think the Harry Potter movie was moved from Christmas to recently as part of that. For the website though, I think there might be more promise with shorter films/serials to begin with. Biggest investment is time, makes sense to frequently reassess if project is worthwhile early on. Can get a much better idea than when it is just a concept. Over time, people in the community will develop reputations to strip down those fat spreads. Could become exponentially more powerful at a time when fat bandwidth is available cheap to facilitate decentralized production.
the nikkei is acting differently. used to run like clockwork, like it was pre-determined. maybe its the BoJ or maybe the game was changed in another way (full disclosure, I have been following from afar, I needed the change in perspective)
few choices or features... Actually, I don't know about that but it is the logical outcome of lower demand and higher capacity.
That's what should happen.
Marginal utility drives diversity until cost > increased value.
Once the bubble pops, the dynamic reverses and diversity shifts towards conformity.
Looking up a lot of the links here, not only does the U.S. have measles, the stored vaccine is ineffective and the disease has gone pandemic.
We all knew that but I get irritated when I can't read the street names or county/city names due to all those silly red dots.
I could go on with the snide jokes, but its just not working.
EHP
me thinks you never studied much political science in reading your comments on the Cash 4 Clunkers program. some weeks ago I read the Rep email from my former district in Indiana and his arguments for supporting it and realised that as strong as a conservative he is he had to support it for the Indiana Big 3 car base and
supply chain. of course, the fuel efficiancy was just a canard, political cover. Economists... whew!
....
weird?
that is Tom Hanks. I chose that picture cause I had access to it holding press credentials in NYC. chose him almost at random. no reason really. understand that many of my YouTube uploads are proof of concept or studies if you will. I may ask myself how long must I hold an image for it to register strongly or weakly and then test it. or perhaps
I'm digging a bit deeper into Eisenstein's theory of montage to see how it can be melded into today's fashionable 'fast or lightning editing' ...
or I'm doing some tag driven test on YouTube. I don't put upload the crown jewels, not for free I don't.
The Bernanke thing was a trifle but oddly it was a hit, that is if you consider under 1000 a hit. I did throw up a nice rant around Sept 17, '08 about Wall St
that was prescient in some ways... the squeezing of the frame, the carousel shooting and the skulls make for a nice claustrophobic atmosphere.
....
I don't think you understand the movie biz EHP when you say: " Change happened back around the Writers strike, in order to stretch out pipelines. I think the Harry Potter movie was moved from Christmas to recently as part of that. For the website though, I think there might be more promise with shorter films/serials to begin with. Biggest investment is time, makes sense to frequently reassess if project is worthwhile early on."
Understand that when the studios decided to clone the Weinstein model from the 90s it was because Harvey and brother had a string of hits beginning with with The Crying Game in '92 that were to be envied along with all the Oscar gold they picked up on the way. But much of Miramax's buona fortuna had to do with luck as much as anything else. They, the studios, have now shed these specialty divisions becuase they weren't profitable and went back to that time tested model of producing home runs.
Studios are not designed to hit singles, period.
...
The worst abusers I am acquainted with did not actually break any laws,they were grossly and obscenely unethical.If Duelling were legal I would have called them out and killed them. lower than the diseased slug molesters that spawned them.
I knew I liked you for a reason Tom!
My Ex once wrote a paper that if you brought back the good old fashion Duelling, (limit of two un-prosecuted murders) people would become much more social minded and the number of blatant frauds would be reduced dramatically. Think about it, the courts are not effective, and it creates a play ground for lawyers. How many people would be A..h.les in public if an 80 year old woman could pull out a gun and shoot them just because she's getting ready to die and wants to do a public service.
It would also help control the population, provide a very polite and well armed population. Think of the bubble in personal weapons and body armor.
Designer small projectile vest by armani. Where would the stock for S&W end up?
Forget squirrel recipes, if you want to change the world I would prefer that direction. I don't like squirrel, it taste too much like sloth.
For BFF, I'm just going to vote 7 until I'm right, and then do a little dance.
Tried to find a song by Prince, All Seven & We'll Watch Them Fall and it looks like the copyright police are on overtime to keep from getting laid off.
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European central banks agreed to a third five-year cap on gold sales and said planned disposals by the International Monetary Fund could be done within the accord.
The European Central Bank and 18 other banks agreed to sell no more than a combined 400 metric tons of the metal a year through September 2014. That’s less than the annual cap of 500 tons in the current agreement, which expires Sept. 26.
Re: cash for clunkers. I'm assuming most clunkers were paid off, and most people financed their new car (likely at a bad rate). Aren't there a lot of people who are gonna have $400-500 less to spend each month?
The government uses a more arcane measurement method that subdivides models according to engine and transmission types, counting them as separate models.
Sure, that makes sense. Why not throw in color as well! I was shocked when I read the rules regarding C4C and truck purchases. What a joke.
I'll be back at the range this weekend practicing on a .50 caliber mounted machine gun
should fire a rocket but I need a good target, they don't come cheap unless of course the
gf's dad is willing to toss me a few on the house...
...
I have this interesting theory about the Khmer Rouge and the Huron indians in the way in
which they employed the use of 'terror', but I'll leave that for another day.
When you go outside of Phnom Penh I have heard 'farang' people warned not to make jokes about
the KR. it's a bit like Fight Club, you can only talk about them if you;re one and the gf is a blue blood
when it comes to that...
...
Munch:
you just wake up? that was announced 24 hours ago -AIG
the other ac (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 9:48 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature.
or "8-ball enema augmented crack pipe apparatus".
Where can I get one of these?
Seems to be a result of the seasonal adjustment--unadjusted numbers are flat or slightly up. The question is--is the seasonal adjustment working? We've had seeming inaccuracies in the adjustment to initial claims because the summer manufacturing layoff season was pre-empted by the spring rush, but I don't see why that should affect total unemployment.
Hey EHP, good to see you back. Good points, which I will mull over. I'll be watching US bonds and there's something niggling me about Yerp right now. Will have a scout around - working from home this morning.
Duke of Con Dao
What I posted doesn't require my understanding. The studios have staggered their releases, and chose to release fewer movies at any one time to improve earnings per movie
.
.
hey Kauai_kahuna, Counterpointer, all
I need to begin putting some weight back into my predictions. There's probably not much I can add until then, other than a few anecdotes
Pretty neato - I mean nemo.
I was right, it WAS big and tasty.
Yowza, look at some of that.
C
Cruising over Manhattan, I feel a little like a Superhero....
"Foreclosureman"
HHB took over from Athena when she retired the Sonoma Housing Bubble Blog and has been doing a good job.Sebastopol looks bad as I mentioned in the last thread,but Piedmont is still a sweet spot.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature.
The Senate passed the extension Thursday evening. The House approved the measure last week.
jesus...I was right, neighbor next door is a goner. More houses in my neighborhood in trouble than I knew about...sad, sad day.
12 properties in my immediate neighborhood...scroll out the map, and red dots everywhere....DFW is supposed to be doing okay..right?
There are similar maps for other cities. I was looking in LA and its scary.
Green shoots, right?
"Foreclosureman"
ROTFLMAO
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Hey picosec,
I saw your interesting comments on another thread regarding your son's living situation. I need a commuter room in berkeley area for the next 9 months or so (just a place to park and may be a place for a cot, no kitchen phone or laundry neccessary). Maybe we should talk.... Seems like some of the other 2 units are empty? Let me know if you read this message so I know when I have succeeded in reaching out to you, regardless of your answer.
Cheers,
mdlim80
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/fed-buys-last-weeks-treasury-auction/23880
Got pig lipstick all over me....
This might be a help to those who keep complaining there are no reasonably priced homes in the SF Bay area,there sure will be.Take a look at Marin,The Oakland hills and Palo Alto for starters.
According to the enlarged map, there are two foreclosures in all of north dakota. Methinks this tool is useless.
I looked in socal and noticed that many of these dots are also quite old. saw some stuff from mid 2008 that I know has already been REO'd and sold
dr. munch, maybe for North Dakota, for my area it is scary.
Hope you are right dafox...we need recent updates.
And yet, a little scroll to the east shows that Greenwich doesn't have that many foreclosures. Stamford, yes. Norwalk, yes. Bridgeport, yes. The population is higher in the cities of course, but it does seem to show that the affluent communities have more resources to fall back on than the cities.
Wow - what a map idea.
no. not really. just better than other places in the us.
btw, i've gotten really used to the "reply" feature, thus my comments may seem quite random from time to time
Actually about 15 in North Dakota. Dollar value prolly less than a million.
you sure it's not back up on the block again?
but everyone i know from there says that everyone wants to live there because it's so special. just like 50 million places in florida, california, washington, etc...
lawyerliz,
You'll never see this but instead of burning notes, people used to engrave their names and the payoff date on a brass disk and embed it in the Newel post. I've seen it done fairly recently - well, twenty years ago anyway - and now it's a pleasing part of the house's history. They didn't have a circular stair, so chose the topmost post at the second floor landing. Very pretty.
Actually it looks like the US has the measles.
Better find a cure.
if they paved those fucking rivers they'd have no traffic. fucking liberals!
Had to let an acquaintance go a thread ago...
If only life had an 'ignore user' button?
Holy crap!!!
All the new developments near me are red zones!
jeez.... sorry no more f-words
it's the opposite near me. the "affluent" areas (as defined by bigger, more expensive homes) are taking it in the crotch. the midline is faring ok.
Funny in our town how there are clusters so dense they obliterate the image. They're all in places touted as best location (location! location!) until recently - Southern Longboat Key and the ubiquitous 'West-of-the-Trail'. Now why is that?
My area is all old old farmland that got paved over in the boom. What a great idea that was.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature.
Just like we did for housing - stimulus encouraged us to build 10 years of houses in 5 years, and pay 2x as much for them. The current stimulus is no different.
It degrades economic structure to create short-term growth.
Stimulus = Bubble
Stimulus = Bad Debt
Stimulus = Robbery of Savings
Stimulus = Using Stimulants in place of Learning or Excercise
Stimulus = Treating Curable Cancer by hiding it with Morphine
Stimulus = Economic Growth and Structure determined by politics, not science or engineering
Stimulus = A punch in the face to wake up your sick grandmother every morning
The word Stimulus is no diferent from others like "4 gram heroin injection" or "8-ball enema augmented crack pipe apparatus".
are you disrespecting The Magic Hand?
Rocky, maybe I should re-word that.
The Wall Street bedroom communities do not seem that red to me.
A Pox on the realty markets.
Literally.
dafox, yeah, I've been playing around with it - and needs to be update regularly to be useful.
best to all
"we need recent updates."
For anyone in California who doesn't mind spending a few bucks for some "entertainment".
foreclosureradar.com is awesome. And it's up to the minute up to date...
with only the addition of an 'I', realty becomes reality!!
Just looked at the previous article.
Apologies to Monetizing, but Sweet Jesus, $171B in non-performing loans? A close to 50% increase in six months alone?
And these guys are now providing the bulk of the mortgage money for the nation? Is that correct?
The Soviets did as good a job with their agriculture sector.
I was under the impression that with the addition of an iou, realty became reality...
Gee C4C has totalled $3B or 25% of the AIG passthrough to GS. It sure has accopmlished a lot more. Over 3 years about 700 M fewer gallons of gas burned, thus less of an import burden, newer cars have better saftey features, so fewer deaths, and some of that $3B is going to come back through taxes of people at the auto factories and show rooms, not to mention any multiplier effects when they spend their paychecks. It will also result in lower losses at taxpayer owned GM and Chrysler. Seems like a pretty good program to me, although perhaps a bit on the generous side, might have gotten almost the same response with $2500/$3500 and gotten more cars out of it for the same $3 B
Oakland is interesting,quite a bit in "New" developments,quite a bit in the hills,but the 'Hood is oddly unrepresented.I wonder if that area has already been through the mill,or if this is an understandable "Forget about it" reaction to an 80% plus drop? I saw a 40% drop on a Sebastopol property in 2 years and that is a NICE place to live
hd43 -- what's the worry? you are not gonna stop anything. are you prepared for the consequences that you imagine?
tom stone -- hope you're doing well. my mom is still waiting, unemployed...
BFF Poll is open at the Polls link.
interesting map!
that property for 3 million in NYC on N Moore might the building John John Kennedy lived in with his wife...
if I remember he bought the place for 1.5 and it was later resold to an acrtor/director ...
....
I knew all of those buildings in Harlem were over priced the moment they designated part of it SoHA (south Harelm)
and they changed west 110th to Central Park North
Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 8:57 pm
I was under the impression that with the addition of an iou, realty became reality...
With the arrival of jingle mail, realty meets reality.
I knew it was bad in Phx Metro.
I looked and it is way past bad, way way way past.
Rent control is your friend.
talk to someone that lives in phx:
great buying opportunity!
my boss lives there
nihilist:
Working on it.
Don't have the land for planting, but in an area with much agriculture and access to food and friends with food.
Defense? Yeah, and looking at NRA courses for us and the kids.
Money? Some cash in case of bank holiday and yeah, diversified to PM.
Ultimately, we can survive on much less and if things go to hell, then we're in it together.
I used to get confused for Jr. in our 20's. Did not own a building though.
hd43 -- 'then we're in it together."
yup.
Nihilist,getting by,put my Broker's license on ice a while ago.Crops are starting to come in now ,which is nice.Still dealing with an insane ex and will be for 10 more years.
New AIG chair Golub:
"He’s non-executive chairman at Ripplewood Holdings LLC, the New York-based private-equity firm, and the Readers Digest Association Inc., the statement said. He’s also on the board of Campbell Soup Co. and Brussels-based investment firm RHJ International SA, AIG said."
I think it's wonderful that these great men sit on so many boards of large public corporations. It gives them insight.
AIG has evidently decided that paying Liddy $1/year was excessive.
ts -- dude, i'd stage my own death. 10 years!? a few g's coes a long way in coasta rica, no?
You all getting unsolicited e-mails from periodicals? Is this in advance of concerted pay-per-click?
We have an 8 year old we share.otherwise I would be more than 25.000 miles away from the ex and still travelling.
yogi
if i do gmail puts them into spam and i just delete
yahoo mail is different seems as if everything is spam there dont use it much.
it's interesting that this post was centered on NYC metro region RE and within one comment
it reverts to Sonoma, Phx, DFW... hey kids... it's Manhattan! don't know squat about the other boroughs
and have no clue what's across the Hudson but I know that island like the proverbial back of the hand...
let's face it, it's the greatest city on Earth and I've been to them all (and yes, I once lived in SF and LA and Boston)
nice places all BUT!
....
1 Currency
his building was 2 doors down from Walkers bar/rest - his family sold it to that guy who made Brothers McMullan
for around 3.8(?) I think... the extra 800k was the celebrity tax... I do love that street, it's the Park Ave of TribeCa... 20 years ago I had my year on this
one loft for years..
....
there is a property listed for 330k on west 26th that is no doubt a studio, I was gnashing my teeth on this topic the other night about how you could've bought the same prop for 50k in '94...
memo to self - time to get back to the City!
....
CR always says Hope is not a strategy and he is correct unless you're trying to make an Indie and
can get Ted Hope aboard - which I am now working on
duke - here is something interesting....
Home Value Graphs & Charts for 209 Rugby Rd, Brooklyn, NY 11226 - Zillow
hopefully this link works...I was checking out where a certain special someone I know lives, and in this area of Brooklyn (which I am sure will shock the hell out of most of you who have preconceptions of the place but have never been there) there are a lot of mansion type places, old, charming, a decent bit of property. Anyway, this place, perhaps a previous foreclosure, sold for 900k. All the stuff around it is about 50% more.
I also have a relative who lives a couple of miles away in Boreum Hills. His brownstone got up to about $2 mil, but according to him now, nothign is selling. He was going to sell, but missed the market. FOrtunately his basis is 600k.
But my point is that the asking and wishing and zillow prices are all garbage now. Even in the areas which dont YET have the foreclosures, like Piedmont CA, and Carrol Gardens in Brooklyn, those are coming. They wont show up until OPTION armageddon time.
Duke wrote:
let's face it, it's the greatest city on Earth
I haven't been to all of them, but I have been to several Euro capitals and every major US city.
What struck me the first I visited Manhattan was the feeling that I was at the center of human civilization.
Haven't had that feeling anywhere else. OTOH, no way I'd want to live there.
OTOH no way ID want to live there - my thoughts exactly. However, check out places nearby, in my previous link. You really will be shocked.
Come on back Duke, I'll back an Indie (if the financials tank) .Soho may get affordable again.
By the way I worked for NABET 15 briefly before law school. Some talented Ballhaus's. I believe they folded into IATSE when a lot of the business went to FL.
stone -- i have no kids but can imagine no duty above protecting them.
that said, land in coast looks great! i'm toying around with places in the great basin and washington state, but coasta? sheeeee-yit!
coinz -- yeah , downtown ny -- i felt millions of hearts beating -- ny vibrates with humanity
I'm told I don't live in a foreclosurezone but my neighborhood looks like it has the measles.
GDD,don't you love the "Value Range" on Zillow? essentialy they are saying Hoonoze WTF this is worth?
Well, I'm out in the boonies for sure, and there are a few I've been watching that are not on here, so I'm guessing the data is late and/or incomplete, but we don't have NOD filings and such that make life easy for finding good information. Neat tool though!
"Wall Street bedroom communities". haha!
value range...look at the bottom, and then take a guess at a percentage discount off that, based on the loans structure underlying the last few years of purchases, and the places employment base by industry. Good think for NY that the banks have extracted all the taxpayers money to keep these prices well higher than they should be. Wonder how long that can last?
How can people live in that environment? I'm numb.
OK, so the listings are imperfect... but wow! Nice find.
Nihilist,I bought a lottery ticket.Unlike Real Estate there IS a mathematical chance of coming out ahead.A 1$ ticket when the pot is $102MM...If I win I'll consider chartering a plane for 2 to Costa...And GDD,iedmot is in a WORLD of hurt,which will be real obvious in a year.Heloc heaven.
"Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature."
If it's good enough for Germans it's good enough for me.
Coinz
yep, no doubt that's what Rome felt like in the day...
1 Currency:
John John didn't own the building just a loft in it that was around 2200 sq feet if memory serves
just checked a property up on 7 east 110th - a 1 bed selling for 440k, guess they didn't get the memo
that it's now called Central Park North, besides that's a really crappy end of the street...
I spent a few months up in Harlem in '07 and was shocked to see all the re-development and
the pricing to buy or rent... they are taking it on the nose now...
Pity me, that I gave up my rent stabilized apt off CPW over 4 years ago...
....
I currency, yeah, rent control is your friend but try and find one... I suspect if I want
back in to a decent apt under rent stab it will cost me 20 to 27,000 in key money (that's
where you pay off the landlord to give you the lease)
GDD:
I worked in downtown B'klyn in the 90's. A friend used to urge me to buy a brownstone in Boerum Hill every week. I didn't want debt. The prices tripled...
I ran into him in early '07, and said I was ready to buy... He said no, better wait. First notice I got of this crisis. After reading up (mainly Reggie Middleton) I decided to keep renting and short financials. Now I'm really ready to buy, but for the moment still shorting financials.
what is it that c calls the nikkei? well, anyway, she's throwing a shitfit. glad to see it.
lottery tickets are my retirement plan. i refer to them as my own, personal black swan in the making.
Yogi, my relative got lucky...he bought in 2001 for 600k, but that was because it was a serious fixer. Good thing his Dad works in construction and has connections to cheap product as well as the ability to install it - 8 years later, the house is just about finished Ha. So he has made out like a bandit in the end, with minimal investment aside from a lot of sweat equity. However, the tripling in price from 2001 on HIS property is not normal. Fixed up places on his street that year went for at least a million. I am SO glad i talked him out of taking out equity from that home and buying another property in bed-sty in 2004. Look at that area on google and you'll see how decimated it is already by foreclosures.
Well, you could play dumb, pay the key money (make sure it's to the actual owner), then sue, as it's illegal. You need not pay a dime while the suit is pending, which you will probably win one day.
This is not legal advice.
But there is precedent.
lottery tickets -- meh, sounds good. i play megabucks every month. $21 gives me about 1 minute of play and i'm out. my EAT puts are working out but i want out of the financialized world. my cash is going to more tangible things from now on. i've lost interest in trading stocks. i'm a hoarder now. land, pm's, etc...
! currency
yes, it's IATSE now, Local 51 and their ilk
you worked with Michael Ballhause the DP?
...
much to my chagrin I just checked the entry dates for Sundance,
the cut-off for shorts is Sept 21, I was working on a reel over here
(that's say 10 minutes of your script as a proof of concept and your skills
in directing) and decided to cut some to make a 5 minute short...
I was going by the old Sundance calendar on submissions (I've been there
3 times) No way I can cut the film over here, I need the polish of a pro on the
sound and editing of which I know who to call in the City
Would make a good noir script ("The Tenant").
Wide-eyed Indiana greenhorn comes to big city, where they fleece him out of his life savings from hard work on the farm.
Represents himself in court. Hard-nosed Brooklyn judge with a heart of gold tells Wall Street landlord to go fuck himself. Jury awards punitive damages. Epilogue: turns out the Duke set it all up, donates half to one-world currency fund...
For grins, I clicked on the foreclosure link and put in the zip code for my boyhood home and parents house.
Their is a big foreclosure marker at the street and cross-street for the house.
It has the right number of bedrooms and bathrooms.
I am totally freaked out.
I know that the mortgage was paid off thirty-five years ago. My father and I carefully "marked" the property lines one night after sharing several beers in celebration.
NW
Better check my house now.
My God, It's full of "red dots"
Economists in a Bloomberg survey estimate that a Labor Department report today will show unemployment rose to 9.6 percent, the highest level since 1983. The number of Americans filing claims for jobless benefits last week fell more than economists predicted, according to data released yesterday, a sign some employers have stopped paring staff.
“The rate of deterioration in unemployment is likely to ease, but there are doubts we’ll see as much improvement as the market would like,” said Kazuhiro Takahashi, a general manager at Daiwa Securities SMBC in Tokyo.
Radiohead - The Bends
YouTube - Radiohead - The Bends (Jools Holland improved Audio)
There has to be something seriously wrong with this map - I did my whole zip [about 18,000 people - probably 5-6K SFH] and only 10 foreclosures listed... what's with that? I have a realtor buddy telling me he's getting 30 listings at a pop straight from the bank. Aren't they counted or is this messed up?
Its never been a better time to buy or sell wampum.
The only film I worked on was a horrible Golan and Globus vigilante pic.
Ballhaus was active in the Union, with his brother or father, I think. I seem to remember he was talented.
My God, It's full of red dots...
My vote for comment of the day.
dryfly - i think there is sufficient evidence that this isnt updated as well as it should be. But it is still quite interesting, and beating it up here will hopefully light a fire under Google's arse to pay more money to make it more useful.
doc - baby's got the bends, oh no....funny you posted this...i was just listening to Radiohead's worst performance ever...the live NPR show broadcast from the Santa Barbara bowl...thank goodness the many times Ive seen them Thom has been "on"
Feels like Bear Stearns time? Or is it a head-fake?
Kicking myself for what I did. 2 days ago I bought Aug SLW 10 calls; last night was pondering what to do, wanted to get up early and flip them (they were about 40% up in 1 day). Had I just put in a market order for open I would've been fine. Where's popeye? Not like it really matters as I've got a bunch of puts that will do fine... but I may have timed the top perfectly (or everyone was effin' front running me!!).
Damn this board; would be better to be naive and have lost all my money in the crash than spin it all away like a trader.
In NYC on a warm day, you can smell the moneysuckle.
YLSP - might be the headfake...i still feel like we need to go a wee bit more irrational before it blows up again. That is more likely to come AFTER we get the q3gdp, but the q4gdp will be the crushing confirmation for the second leg down to retest the lows. Or maybe I dont know wtf im talking about. Could be the negra modelo talking. Perhaps I should speak Spanish the rest of the night. Si, claro.
Enjoy Matt Taibbi (video)
YouTube - Taibbi 1/2 : Bailout giant dictatorially administered program by Federal Reserve
more selling, less telling.
my polls close in about, 9 hours.
sold CLNE for a tidy profit prior to earnings on Monday . . .
Are there any nude sunbathers on porches or roofs?
dryfly - i think there is sufficient evidence that this isnt updated as well as it should be.
Updated? I know I live in flyover and don't count but they have to be at least an order of magnitude off - if not more.
Either that or the recession just flew right over our heads going back and forth from coast to coast. [/snark]
John Hughes died. Guess he had a heart attack while walking in Central Park.
" Once having begun work as a screenwriter, he pursued the craft relentlessly.
In the 1991 interview, he said: “If I’m on a roll, and I finish a script at 3:00, I’ll start another at 3:02.”
and they read like they were written in that fashion.
Bet he was overweight Chicago style.
....
hell, I've got stories I put down for years at a time when it goes into the cul de sac. speaking of stories
I'm on my last one for my collection of 10 for the decade, the finale is a doozy!
funny, my creative abilities wane greatly when I'm in Asia, production slows to a crawl ...
but get me back on the island!
....
Ted Hope and I have been discussing the use of crowdsourcing used for example in the NetFlix
1 million $ contest. he's trying to adapt some of its principles to indie film making ...
nobody gets into indies for the money, it's the passion...
our few discussions - he's a very busy man - kind of reminded me of
1 Currency's theory of 1 Currency ... interesting in concept but how do we implement?
From Daily Reckoning:
The Daily Reckoning covers the economy, global markets and world politics.
"
There are two big bubbles now. There is the familiar one in federal government debt. The other is the Peoples' Republic of China.
Andy Xie says China is a 'giant Ponzi scheme' fed by new investors hoping to get rich. Of course, the China story is an attractive one. China's growth rate is spectacular. Even in a worldwide financial meltdown...and the biggest depression since the '30s...China is still growing at greater than 8% per year - or so the figures tell us. New cities are still being built...at a breathtaking pace. Stocks on the Shanghai exchange are up 80% so far this year. China has the biggest pile of cash on the planet - $2 trillion worth. And it has more bright, well-educated engineers, accountants and economists than anywhere else... In fact, it has so many economists trained at Western universities, it is almost sure to blow itself up...
Maybe this is the Chinese Century. Maybe it is not. Either way, it seems inevitable to us that the Chinese bubble economy is going to pop. Banks are lending three times as much as they lent last year. You can't increase lending at that rate and still maintain credit quality - if there was any in the first place. A lot of buildings are going up that won't find tenants. A lot of factories are expanding that won't find customers. A lot of speculations are going on that investors will later regret. That's just how a bubble works!
Mr. Xie says, for example, that the cost of property in China is about the same as in the United States. But wait, the average income in China is only 1/7th what it is in the USA. How can the Chinese afford American prices? Well, they can't. They're all betting on the 'greater fool theory' - that they can pay any price, because some greater fool will come along and pay more. Trouble with that is that the Greatest Fool of All finally shows up...and then the whole structure collapses.
..."
it is full of red dots and how in the hell did we do this to ourselves. all these foreclosures now and the ones coming up the road, the us is red.
put in my sisters town and there is foreclosure on her street! and one of the streets we used to live has another,this brings it really home.
im suprised that google is allowed to do this, sort of makes you wonder about the recovery.
mdlim80-
I'll pass it on to him, but I doubt he'll be in a position to help since he has no ownership rights and he's a straight arrow on ethical issues.
Dryfly,GooGle and zillow spend the $ where they think it wise and that means they will not cover rural areas well,ever.Or poor ones either.Take a look at Oakland Ca and tell me why the flatlands show so few foreclosures? I doubt that vultures are buying many SFH's to rent out there,the landlord/tenant laws are so skewed in favor of tenants that you would have to have a negative IQ to even consider it.
well, remember dry .... flyover as benefitted from a very different economic dynamic, plus, a lot less home appreciation and probably a lot less equity extraction. If there was none of that nonsense, the situation wouldnt be nearly so bad in some places. As I said earlier, one of the things Im most happy about is convincing a relative who made one good investment not to ruin it by staying at the casino, extracting "equity" and placing another bet. Each progressive bet made in this casino looked more enticing, but had worse odds, and they are all coming up losses now.
I think you said your flyover was MN, am I right? Mixed there...some auto sector fallout, but not a huge runup in prices in most areas. Without that, no extraction. And then again, in those lower placed prices, the foreclosure action was likely more of subprime variety, and that whole thing is pretty much contained, ha...i mean contained to the past.
Without editorial comment, the Oakland flatlands are seriously under-represented. Maybe they ran out of red electrons.
My plan is to endow a prize, so the young geek/hack Linus Torvalds of the world will go to work. Like E-bay, Amazon or Mozilla, you set it up free to use and hope it takes off.
As an indie lover, I'm not in it for the money either.
dryfly (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 10:11 pm
Updated? I know I live in flyover and don't count but they have to be at least an order of magnitude off - if not more.
Either that or the recession just flew right over our heads going back and forth from coast to coast. [/snark]
I think your right but for the wrong reasons. All of the listings I could find in my neighborhood (SE WI) were held by national lenders, but no regionals or community banks. That being said, some of the listings were duplicates, a bunch had already been sold (going back as far as April), and a lot I couldn't find at all (and I do this for a living).
For money, I have a good poker game to go to, see you all after I kill it.
picosec,I really wonder if the banks just gave up on the oakland flat lands.I saw stuff sell for 600 a sq ft at the peak in areas I would hesitate to drive through at noon on sunday with a cocked and locked 1911.I did that a few times,when I had to but I was not comfy.
Regarding the updating of the data, my son's Berkeley rental, for which a NOD was filed 2 months ago, is on the Google map.
I think you said your flyover was MN, am I right? Mixed there...some auto sector fallout, but not a huge runup in prices in most areas. Without that, no extraction. And then again, in those lower placed prices, the foreclosure action was likely more of subprime variety, and that whole thing is pretty much contained, ha...i mean contained to the past.
I'm on the edge of small town rural to almost 'exurban'... we were one of the last areas still classified as rural between Rochester MN [Mayo Clinic driven 'prosperity'] and the Twin Cities... we are mostly factory blue collar, small biz & services... not many high rollers.
Still only 8-10 BKs when I KNOW there are at least 10-20 times as many if not more? Maybe they are on the honor system and the locals just FORGOT to report.
Tom, I hear ya'. But then I always try to remind myself that the vast majority of people who live there are doing the best they can and for most that's pretty damn good under the circumstances.
I have to go into that neighborhood fairly frequently and so far haven't had any problems. I try to look like I'm neither a weakling nor a threat.
1 Currency -
"Represents himself in court." works in the movies but not in real life
been there and done that a few times... housing court judges tend to bend over
backward for the tenants most of the time until they don't like my case in '05,
... I was played by my landlord like a sucker ... should have never signed the stip
until I had good legal advice! (must admit I was in a real funk and not thinking too clearly)
well, im just trying to think up theoreticals dry - all this points to is that the reality we are trying to understand is much worse than the official statistics.
And what exactly do you think that means for the banks, especially after you apply the same concept to the commercial RE sector?
Only issue now is WHEN to go short, rather than if...
Last fall, Roubini estimated about 3.5 trillion in losses for the banks. I don't have a number handy, but I doubt write downs have reached a trillion yet.
We are probably about 1/3 of the way through this -- for the banks. We still have a huge private debt overhang.
Every solution I can think of causes extreme pain somewhere to many people.
But there could be many tricks of financial wizardry of which I am unaware.
Hot damn! Three on my block alone!
It's subprime all over again, when 6 out of 30 went down.
picosec,people are people everywhere.I had remarkably few problems managing property there, considering.But I was not buying drugs or women,was alert,and was there to do my business and leave.There were and are some very dysfunctional and violent people in that town who will try to kill you for looking at them in what they consider the wrong way,or because you are white.I had that happen about every 5 years on average.
For an area that will make your neighborhood look like 90210 (assuming that things are OK there), put "95391" into the Google realty map.
Hah..I was just looking at 90210 - Beverly Hills -- dotted with red.
Mountain House is more desirable than the Salton Sea,and they were building there too...
We are a country of red dots.
I don't see how things get better. Thinking of the entier process from properties to banks, ot pension funds. I just don't see how we don't fall to the bottom of the well.
Salton Sea!!
Man, they were underwater (or at least sea level) before they even started.
Get a clue!
Mountain House spaghetti is very desirable.
I tried putting in 94610 and panned to the oakland flatlands.I picked up a LOT more red dots...
tom, i just did the same thing....they're there.
@ Tom Stone (and anyone else awake)
I think I found the Google issue with East Oakland and probably other high-foreclosure areas. If you aren't zoomed in enough, Google gives up and shows no red dots. Then, when you do zoom in, they pop up.
EDIT: You guys beat me by 2 minutes.
comrad coinz at 734
yeah nyc... you are right... its the center of... what ever
but
been there done that
and i agree with you would not want to live there
(any more)
Nikki. Stamping her little foot. But you TOLD me Hello Kitty was real!
C
Well I zoomed into my location and nothing - including two I strongly suspect are REOs - no shows on this map. Maybe we really are all above average...[/snarkity max snark]
picosec,it is something to see,isn't it? I know someone who sold a beat up sears "Jack and Jill" house on the 2700 block of 26th ave 94601 for $550k in 2005.
Tom and picosec
I know about walking through some rough areas in NYC back in the early 80s to 90s...
can't look like a wuss but can't look like a tough guy either
....
BankFailure .... put the Duke down for 6 BFFs...
....
just checked the zip of my podunck Indiana town, just a handful out of a pop of 19,000
... can't be right but then again I own some rentals there and 40% of the town is on some
sort of aid. property prices there had very little appreciation in the last 10 years
acc. to a banker friend the appreciation rate is about 1 1/2 % a year...
maybe Google says to flyover - screw you!
Was it foresight or luck (not that it matters in the end)?
EDIT: the Oakland Sears house - and I'm the one who's been promoting the "reply to." Sorrry
"Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."
tom, hell, some rinky dink 1000 sq ft shacks in fruitvale got up to that price in 2006. Sadly, in 2003 a friend of mine bought one for 410k. Last I checked, $250k. However, Im sure it would fetch more if she stopped paying, got foreclosed, and let the vultures bid. Ha.
my BFF bet is 2
one really big effin bank
and one not so big, ...but still biggerer
Speaking of Fruitvale and E Oakland (not meaning to turn this into a private conversation, but it could be instructive), to what extent do you think fraud played a role in the run-up in prices in that area?
nytol - got work to do tomorrow...
...and those of you going for the brass ring on BFF, go to the "Poll" link at the top of this page. You can brag about your call in twenty-four hours.
Fruitvale even has a peet's now.
Nikki stamping. Hang Seng H Financials pushing -2.8%. China Ents looking bloody.
Folks, I have the strangest feeling.
C
/breaks out theremin for mood music.
only because they shut down the starbucks. hahaha. just kidding I dunno. But picosec, I would think they didnt need a lot of fraud. They had TONS of suckers. However, the insiders, lenders, brokers, RE agents...were all loathsome. I met many over the years and was invariably revolted by their delusion. I made a point of telling some how I thought they were disgusting for sending people to their doom and profiting from it. Not ONE got it.
My daughter lives up the hill from there and there are a number of boutique style shops going in, such as a branch of La Farine bakery. Farmer Joes is making a big difference, but it's still definitely a challenge to get the people who can afford these things to consider shopping there.
meow. haha!
Just checked my zip and everything seems pretty accurate from my driving around the hood lately. Too damn bad a lot of them are equal or better than an extra 5-700 sq. ft. and 1 more bathroom. They're taking about, oh, 65-70% haircut to dump that house on the market against mine the next hood over subtracting the above space/accoutrements.
I'm almost certain I'm more solvent than them, but if I wanted to sell I couldn't. Frack!
Picosec,fraud has a much higher influence on the price of real estate than it does in most other markets,both because it is priced on the margins and because of the emotions involved.The emotional buttons I saw most frequently pushed were "Nest" and "Safety" because your home would make up for the SS that wouldn't be there for you.I only takes one or two venal appraisers to run up "Valuations" and once things get going...
strange feeling that life is about to get interesting again?
we'll see.
global resonance really worked last October...
Farmer Joe's,the bakery and peet's do make a difference as does the library and park.and in 10 minutes you can be in redwoods out of sight and sound of the city.But the schools...
The reason for my "fraud" question is that on Zillow I've seen some (not a large percentage) sales pairings that had to involve a bogus appraisal. Also see some where the loan greatly exceede the sale price in a short time. No personal knowledge at all, that's why I asked.
ah, the schools....and i can assure you, they aint getting any better any time soon.
Rocky - couple of things aligning, yeah.
C
I'm knocking off for the evening. Nice hiking with y'all.
a lot of people think this way right now. we shall see.
I am out as well, right after bringing up a question as usual. Sorry about that - busier than usual now but CR time should increase next week.
People get desperate when bubbles burst,and fraud becomes obvious.Lack of enforcement sure hasn't helped.The worst abusers I am acquainted with did not actually break any laws,they were grossly and obscenely unethical.If Duelling were legal I would have called them out and killed them.lower than the diseased slug molesters that spawned them.
Lots of dots in the mid range areas in Phx. More than I expected in the upper end too. The xurbs are toast, but I knew that already.
Wonder where they find a market for those, the only thing selling here is the very discounted low end stuff to investors and some tax credit first time buyers.
My neighborhood in N.Houston, built 1977, shows relatively few foreclosures, since there's a pretty stable low-med income population here. Decent 1500 - 2000 sqft houses on decent lots.
However, I used to work in a software company, and quite a few of the higher level 6 figure guys bought nice 4000 sqft (mc)mansions in Kingwood, 50 minute commute from W.Houston, tiny lots, just East of the airport.
kingwood - Google Maps
Check out all the dots!! That's good right?
FFS people, you're under the flightpath into IAH, WTF were you thinking???
good night
looks like nikki just got a bounce
GDD9000,
Small world. I live two blocks from that address.
Tom Stone,
are you familiar with that scene in Glengarry Glen Ross by David Mamet, which
I think he won the Pulitzer for, where Ricky is selling that couple land in FLA?
a classic!
in my early days in NYC I worked for two very well known architects Agrest & Gandelsonas who were quite hot at the moment...
I remember they were trying to sell this property in the Hamptons on Georgica Pond for 225,000, this
included their plans for a house... luckily, for them the wife came form the 2nd richest Jewish family in Argentina so they
could float their design studio and commercial property ventures...
I remember showing a buiding on 22nd that needed major renovations starting with new floors, we were asking 675K...
that building today? 5 loft floors in a great location? maybe 11-12 mil...
josap (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 9:32 pm
Lots of dots in the mid range areas in Phx. More than I expected in the upper end too. The xurbs are toast, but I knew that already.
It isn't a feature of the exurbs. It is a feature of marginal building in response to the false signals from the bubble. The same factors have killed cenurban condos and the ill fated mixed use concept.
Agronox,did you ever make it to Anne's Cafe? Now gone,was at fruitvale and Bienati way,it was a landmark.5 pounds of omelet and hashbrowns for $4.25 in the day.and good.
Night,it won't be boring.
"they were grossly and obscenely unethical"
Still happening here on the "immune" west side of LA. Was looking at a rental the other day and got to talking to the realtor. Actually, I mostly listened.
She explained how I should buy now, as prices were headed back up. Sales were up, and there were cash buyers in the 'hood. Basically spewing the tried and true "buy now or..." fear mantra. And she was good. If I was an "average" buyer who got info only from realtors, I might have bit.
So... I looked up her property records.
She bought a house in the area she "specializes" in '2 years ago for 1.25 million and put 250k down. Not much is selling here, because no one is lowering their price, but of the stuff that does sell, comps to her place are selling for 8-950k (still grossly overpriced) and still falling. The conflict of interest is ridiculous. I really hate these people. Especially because many people still listen to their "advice" I hope she loses the house.
rant off
Oops, sorry Tom. I should've used the "reply to" function. I was talking about that Ditmas Park, Brooklyn location GDD mentioned way upthread.
Here I was worried about the swine flu, and I see the nation has Kitchen-Pox... All the kitchens get red dots on them, your wallet starts stinging, your investment portfolio itches all the time so you can't sleep, and you feel like crying.
Be up early tomm, if you are on the west coast.
(early as in 6am, before the market opens) I told you once, I told you twice, dont be holdin long in this market.
nytol....
argh...dont even get to leave before I have to respond...
Agrophobonox - yes, Ditmas park. When I first learned of this place, I was so wacked out, because years earlier, I thought all of Crooklyn was rowhouses, and shate.
JBR - same thing in N-cal...the realtwhores were sickening then, they are probably more desperate and disgusting now.
Rob Dawg
It just hit me strange. I see the charts, I see the signage. I read the reports.
Maybe the red looks too much like blood on the streets.
There are families in those homes, or were. Most of those people didn't understand what they were getting into really and most don't understand what happened to their plan. They just know it is gone.
We need to require some type of education or classes before we let people buy real estate. Most people can't understand a lease, A sales contract, loan doc and escrow papers are way past them. Unless they are willing to sit for hours as each step is explained they never really know what they are signing. At some point in the process they just sign because they are emotionally commited to the house.
josap, when people are told that RE only goes up, what exactly did they have to worry about? I mean, people who STUDIED and finance and econ thought that was possible depsite the evidence. How would ordinary folks think theyd possibly have anything to worry about? I mean, you buy in, however you do it, and you are set for life, that is how RE was pitched to them. They were the lucky ones.
Im only surprised that more people arent jaded by the whole ridiculous scam process after all of this. Sheep, meet sheers.
I REALLY am going to bed now.
You are so right. The weak, the ill informed, the gullible and there are millions amongst us, they always pay the heaviest price for the chicanery of others. There is blood on the streets and one of these, never mind...
Im sleeping..zzzz.. I really am.
Following the bubble for as long as I have I'm emotionally and intellectually hardened against your entirely reasonable suggestions. I wish I thought education would make a difference but as you note messing with peoples' emotions is probably not going to end well.
Lawyerliz commented earlier thread about the statute of limitatiions on foreclosure actions.
This looks like a bit of a predatory site, but it does at least appear to give the limitations per state...
Debt collection statute of limitations listed by state
I wish I thought education would make a difference
The triumph of experience over hope?
I checked my area and it's about what I expected.
However...
Driving around town yesterday, there are waaaayyy too many SFRs with browned-off, gone-to-seed lawns - one or more on every block, it seemed. Never seen it like this before. Some of the houses are obviously vacant; most are occupied. I'm wondering if these are homeowners who have stopped paying and are waiting for a NOD? Or tenants whose landlords are in default and have stopped paying the gardener?
Makes me want to knock on doors and ask what's up.
A few days ago as I was driving to work I noticed a U-Haul being loaded at a home near the one I currently rent (in a very nice neighborhood at a very nice monthly figure after selling my home for a decent profit in 2007). I notice that it is listed on the Google map as a pre-foreclosure.
cheapseats, I wouldn't interpret those timeframes to apply to trust deeds. Real estate has its own laws, separate from commercial codes.
Another anecdote. Federal government seems to be in hiring mode, across the board. Have heard of expansion in several departments. Come to think of it, haven't heard anything about federal cut-backs, except for the USPS. State and local governments are all over the news with their budget cuts. Why not the feds too? (rhetorical question.)
nite everyone.
strange, 13 months ago when I first found this site which has taken a lot of time from me (to wit, I'm supposed to be churning
a few masterpieces - yet had I not waded into a bit of research on CDSs my story formerly titled Deere John would not now be called
Yield ... that is the cost of sitting on material! 9/11 gutted two well crafted stories of mine, it's only now that I see a way out )
and has yet to reap me much benefit but I still hope.
....
I have argued to Ken Coop & CR that if you Ignore someone your comments should automatically be eliminated as well, why must I read the comments
of someone who doesn't return the courtesy? it is a question of equity. if someone has Ignored me I don't want to read what they have to say, period.
I don't care if they have discovered a Grand Unified Theory. this will also cut down on the reading workload on my side.
it is a question of equity.
duke:
where is it written that life is fair.
suck it up and move on to the next off topic
:-<>.
Wow. Here I thought my town was Special! about 10 foreclosures here, including a couple million+ houses. This is in an area right outside of NYC, with a school district that ranks in the top 50 in the country. This map really hits home.
Edited.
I added the foreclosureradar search tool to my site, it is updated much more regularly than the google data. But I haven't found a site that is perfect yet. There are a lot of changes going on in the marketplace.. many aren't accounting properly for the NOD rescissions and cancellations. Or if the NOD is filed and the NTS gets delayed due to loan mod efforts the NOD can stop from showing even though the home is still in process.
Offtopic:
Bright spot in the clouds of Venus just days after a dark spot on Jupiter. Little green spots on the face of the Earth to follow.
SPACE.com -- Bright Spot on Venus Stumps Scientists
E.D.,
Have you seen the NODs building at Oxnard Shores and the Harbor?
for the record I have never put a single User on Ignore... does that mean I read their comments
with the kind of focus and respect say like a Rabbi might read the Torah, no. Take Jas. For me
he was like a bad club comedian where I find myself studying the label on the beer in my hand...
I don't think CR gets the ideas of JS Mill or for that matter Oliver Wendell Holmes when it comes to
free speech. the marketplace of ideas means exactly that! not a rigged marketplace like what we
have here.
It's all about Foreclosures at the Park...
I suppose that would better read; Foreclosures at the Dirt Field...
Duke,
Tell me about your ninja girlfriend again.
Rob,
I hadn't really noticed because Oxnard is such a huge blur of NOD, NTS and REO relative to the rest of the county. I did notice the 2 commercial foreclosures today in Ventura County, a strip mall in Oxnard and a self storage place in Camarillo. A precursor to many more im sure. Have you noticed anything interesting?
OT/ really
One of the two journalists held captive for months in North Korea conceded to relatives after her release on Wednesday that she had “very briefly” crossed into the Communist country, her sister said Thursday.
Laura Ling, 32, a reporter with Current TV — planned to write an editorial explaining the events that led North Korean authorities to detain her and a fellow American journalist, Euna Lee, 36. But Ms. Ling, speaking by telephone on CNN Thursday evening in her first interview since the release, revealed that the two women did apparently cross into North Korea from China as they were researching a story on human trafficking on May 17. The women were subsequently convicted and sentenced to 12 years hard labor.
“She did say that they touched North Korean territory very, very briefly,” Ms. Ling said of her sister, adding later, “She said that it was maybe 30 seconds, and everything just got sort of chaotic. It’s a very powerful story and she does want to share it.”
....
keep spinning girls... were they playing tag?
share it? yeah, for a million dollar book deal!
If you called her a ninja to her face your face would be ripped off in .03 s... sounds like she is Vietnamese or Cambodian? I'm not familiar with the martial arts of those countries.... I do know a wicked Vietnamese guy who seems like he has all the pressure points memorized and could give you the pinky of death...
I'm sure they'd make just as much sharing the details of the plane ride home with Bill Clinton...
There is nothing wrong with people using the ignore button. I'm fine with being ignored. People differ. This isn't a battle broadcast where ideas fight it out merican gladiator style. It is not a marketplace. It is a group conversation. If someone bores you or offends you at a party you turn away, right?
There are many layers to the conversation. Sometimes people are only interested in a certain layer. There is nothing wrong with them having a filter.
Look at it this way. If someone is ignoring you they are saving you the trouble of their vituperative argument against your position. Besides, it probably drives them nuts when you are quoted.
I wish there were more ways for people to self select to leave me alone.
Anyway, back to the ninja...
I see a few in the old parts of the harbor headed back to the bank. With such low turnover I was surprised. And look at the new construction fantasy pricing at 1239 Capri Way . I'm also surprised that the Camarillo Applebee's isn't leasing. Maybe the new ill timed light industrial north of the airport will revive the corridor. There's also an interesting Bella Vista
home on the list.
ED,
That bad along the Ventura coast, eh? Interesting...
as for the Khmer Ninja it's fun to have her do vocalizations like say if
I were captured by the Khmer Rouge and interrogated ... borders almost
on the Kabuki... she makes some really nice guttural sounds between the
English words that scare the crap out of me... sounds like her older sister
of 31, who is drop dead gorgeous but sadly is a full blown lesbian flew the
coop last year - her path was paved gold for her as a lawyer since daddy runs
Battambong (2nd largest city) but I suspect she knows more about papa
than she wants esp about his KR years..
....
of all my travels in Asia I have never heard of anyone having an electrified
living compound complete with large arsenal (he was in the military before they
cam to power in '75... my gf is oblivious
to what dad did in the past, plus she said he never talked about it ... real control freak.
nobody smokes or drinks. she went apeshit the other day when I smoked
a cigar, as if I had a crack pipe in my hand... she does drink now, quite well! and after I took her
to the casino for some blackjack lessons she said daddy was against gambling!
"hey, thanks for the hat tip Dau, won't do me much good when my head is stuck atop a stake!"
venus getting racing stripes. sweet.
I read that venus spins the wrong way, Suggesting it is a visitor from outside the solar system and did not coalesce alongside the other planets.
Venus is an interesting place:
http://www.kronia.com/symposium/thrnhill.txt
THE VELIKOVSKY AFFAIR: CHAPTER 3: THE INCONSTANT HEAVENS
ESA - Venus Express - Unexpected detail in first-ever Venus south pole images
TJ,
Oxnard is especially bad. They basically had a ton of open space (farmland) available during the housing boom and a very willing local government facilitating the entitlement of land. Subprime was huge there. Lots of new homes built right during the peak. Instant negative equity with many marginal borrowers. So. Cal. has a lot of renters that can be turned into owners. Unfortantely the boom made many "owners" in a non-sustainable way. The bust could bring in many sustainable homeowners but TPTB want the old homeowners to keep the homes rather than the ready, willing and able masses sitting on the sidelines.
Duke, I see a shotgun wedding in your future.
no shotgun marriage... that's not going to happen....
but I am trying my best to find a middle way for her,
not her way totally and not dad's way (he will think it is)
think of me as the protagonist in Shaw's Pygmalion,
not the screen version, in the original she leaves him for
Freddy.
...
consider, her dad married the mom when she was not quite
14, ( today her mom is 44 and dad 60) he had pick of the litter
so to speak and he chose a tall beautiful half Cambodian and half Thai
woman...
but like in the movie The Asphalt Jungle it's those uncontrollable or hidden
variables that screw up the best laid plans!
sadly, EDIT OUT
Duke,
Didn't realize she was true ninja; probably read it but it didn't stick in my brain.
Some of the amendments in the Senate for Cash for Clunkers were amusing:
Only 3 that were pertinent I think:
- AGI of $50k for individuals (and $75k for joint)
- Regulation that DoT release the data on the program each day
- Allows dealers to donate clunkers to a charity
More amuising amendments:
- Vitter proposed an amendment to end the TARP
- TARP government exit plan, including a few other provisions on management influence
- $15k tax credit for house purchase (Isakson!!!!)
YSLP
not only did he demand that his kids study a multitude of languages and subjects but he
also demanded that they be trained in the marital arts (she had 2 1/2 years of karate, her sister
6... also had knife training - her favorite is a 32 inch blade 2 1/3 inches wide )...
think of them like gangsters from the golden era of the 50s...
he never knows when I hit might be out on him but wanted to make sure
his kids could protect themselves...
when he had her kidnapped from Bangkok 2 years ago in Siam Sq.
he sent 4 men to toss her in the black car with diplo plates
Quick bit on National Income Accounts
The Fed is (almost done?) buying ~$750bn of Agency and $500bn of private MBS. This isn't just a trivial matter of rolling over financing. There should be significant "permanent impairments" (I choose my words carefully out of deference to the Fed's charter that does not allow it to generate losses)
Such permanent impairments are reconciled by assigning the difference as income to the foreclosed borrower, and a negative tally in the investment column. At least that's what I expect, but it is possible that the Fed's losses get moved into the accounts of the Treasury/government. In which case the inverted gains will be filed under Government spending as simple transfers. (yes/no?)
I was doing some thinking about significant changes in sub-sections of the economy. Private credit contracting for the first time ever. Then balancing those negative impacts against increases in Govt/Fed spending (including implied spending from guarantees given expected loss rates) (the loans are tucked in all over the place, you can look at SIGTARP's tally but don't forget the increase in activity at the US Export bank to name one)
Just food for thought.
Counterpointer,
more than a few things coming into alignment. Of the reasons to support the status quo:
Inventory: there cannot be an inventory stocking induced v-shaped economic tsunami until final sales pick up. Every conference call it is the same. Situation stabilized, still waiting for orders to pick up
U-3 Unemployment: There is zealous belief that a peak of which marks the end of recession. Frankly, it doesn't matter if I'm wrong and there isn't a second bump up in unemployment if/when a H2 recovery doesn't materialize. It appears the expectations are of a traditional business/inventory cycle without consideration to unwinding of a credit bubble. Then even if I'm wrong in believing credit is unwinding, the hurdle of generating the necessary returns in absolute amounts for accounting purposes to recycle into the larger subsequent generation of lending after friction losses.... well I can put on some boiling water for tea while I wait it out.
Just as I thought many had a lot to learn about Control Systems Analysis as applied to credit bubbles (or economics in general for that matter), I now think many have a lot to learn about Seasonal variation ex-goldilocks. Just because Furby sales jumped in December 1999, does not mean inventory ever cleared or prices recovered up until today
........
Perhaps I'm the idiot though. Lots of money spent to report expectations for 4%+ GDP growth.
That is ridiculous. What about Net Exports. What about ability to fund the national debt at what would be devastating interest rates. If there is an implicit dollar devaluation to answer those questions, what would that do to capital market availability. Could the US economy grow so much if they had to get 2/3rds of borrowing directly from bank loans and only 1/3rd from capital markets as is the standard abroad, and the reverse of what the status quo is. Is restarting the JIT supply chain stretch weak companies more than they can bear (eg American Axle and Cash for Clunkers)
Months ago I summed up my thoughts as the US/Fed having to run increasingly fast, down a path that narrows and where the dropoff on either side steepens. Inflation/growth on the right, Deflation/defaults on the left. FNM/FRE are going to need how much more money. $1-$2tn? In the very near future. Hasn't been discussed in a single budget. I hope the Treasury has a few people thinking outside their explicitly described contractual responsibilities for "what if?" scenarios like that
If there was a recovery, I would have heard about some great YoY improvements in orders for year end already. The second phase of this thing will be much more cerebral, governments playing games with each other. The actions to date have been boring (and I say that with full respect for everyone who has taken new, strong, and pioneering actions that were both policy and logistical challenges). So enjoy the crash and rebound to for this year's end, because the pussyfooting will be ending.
hey Poseut...
I knew EvilHenryPaulson and you're no EvilHenryPaulson!
since youve been away EHP...
here;s a ben bernanke / xavier bardem vid mash-up you might like
(the face of Big Brother is Mark Felt... and the coda music is from Welles' War of the World
YouTube - No Country for Old Ben: Javier Bardem Tells Bernanke he's a Fool!
So, the financials are on a roll due presumably to direct and indirect government subsidy and big auto as well, but staple indicators, to me still seem a bit weak. When is the market going to get wise to this sham?
"General Cable Corporation Issues Q3 2009 Guidance; Revenue Guidance Below Analysts' Estimates"
"General Cable Corporation is engaged in developing, designing, manufacturing, marketing, distributing and installing copper, aluminum and fiber optic wire and cable products. The Company operates in three segments based on geographic regions: North America, which primarily consists of operations in the United States and Canada; Europe and North Africa, and Rest of World (ROW), which consists of operations in Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa, Middle East and Asia Pacific."
None of this makes any sense to me. According to these maps, the market should be flooded with foreclosures. Yet, few properties in my area, where I have been watching the listings (better parts of Oakland and Alameda) ever make it to the open market. I know there are stories of investors buying in bulk, insiders buying properties, etc but even still they would show up on sales records. I can't understand what kind of game is being played to keep these properties off the market, the complete picture of who is behind it and how they think they will benefit. They can't possibly think that with the numbers of defaults shown in these maps that they can continue to trickle and hold prices high. Lack of resources to process foreclosures does not fully answer this puzzle either. Sales prices in the better parts of the Bay Area remain high and I have to conclude that there is a long way down if these foreclosures are ever brought to market. We are nowhere near the bottom or leveling off point.
I was stunned to see how many red dots there are in San Francisco, yet the prices in SF continue to be sky high and there are few listings.
The biggest mystery of all time (or at least this year) is wtf is going on with all these properties in default.
YLSP
What gets me about Cash for Clunkers is it really is about supporting the new truck and auto sales series.
It's not about mileage -- that solution is a fuel tax increase, or registration fee cut for efficient vehicles depending on how you care to frame it
It's not about jump starting demand -- it cannibalizes used car sales, which believe it or not are probably more likely to contribute towards new spending
Then, what happens when the C4C fund runs out again. You've pulled forward a good chunk of demand. You think automakers are going to let their prices go up?
It has been a relatively good investment to get press coverage for a relatively pitiful amount.
True it will also give a break to some in the supply chain, notably steel mills.
I'm skeptical it would make or break any one company
In any event, this marks the move to a more boring car market. Low price, high reliability, few choices or features... Actually, I don't know about that but it is the logical outcome of lower demand and higher capacity. Have seen preliminary trends towards that in the new car market though. Probably mix in whatever green/electric policy priorities.
The Volkswagen bug (the original) makes for an interesting case study in trends for auto production. Ditto for the differences in Toyota light pickup models around the world over time. Or how about Chrysler. From k-car to fridge in glovebox mobile inside 20 years.
When has Ford scheduled their bankruptcy filing? What law firm will they be hiring?
I like this one better...
YouTube - Dollar Collapse by Bernanke
Duke of Con Dao
Not that I am qualified to judge, but you are weird. You also are a dead ringer for Tom Hanks in your Youtube profile picture. I wish you continued bliss over in the jungles of the land time forgot. As for wanting to set up online network with goal of facilitating indie movies. Funnyordie.com is probably the current leader at that for now. Concept does have interesting prospects as big studios have cut back on number of films in order to boost profitability. Change happened back around the Writers strike, in order to stretch out pipelines. I think the Harry Potter movie was moved from Christmas to recently as part of that. For the website though, I think there might be more promise with shorter films/serials to begin with. Biggest investment is time, makes sense to frequently reassess if project is worthwhile early on. Can get a much better idea than when it is just a concept. Over time, people in the community will develop reputations to strip down those fat spreads. Could become exponentially more powerful at a time when fat bandwidth is available cheap to facilitate decentralized production.
re: Bernanke videos
I think most people would be better served watching this video. "Read a book, read a book, read a goddamn book. Not a sports page, or a magazine, but a book, nigga, a fuckin' book nigga."
*** contains the potentially offensive words f--k, and ni--er *** viewer discretion is strongly advised
Bomani Armah -- Read a Book (was at SXSW 2009)
back one post, maybe eccentric is a more apt word than weird. Well the art videos, those are probably what made me think of weird
the nikkei is acting differently. used to run like clockwork, like it was pre-determined. maybe its the BoJ or maybe the game was changed in another way (full disclosure, I have been following from afar, I needed the change in perspective)
KK - reporting to be schooled, but all the teachers are gone.
Oh wait.
EHP, long time no see. Hope everything is well.
You have been missed.
Just for the record I hope this "indie movies" will be a new Indian Jones titled:
"Indie and the lost cache of shadow inventory".
YLSP -
- Allows dealers to donate clunkers to a charity
Finally something that makes sense to me, thanks YLSP, you actually made my day.
few choices or features... Actually, I don't know about that but it is the logical outcome of lower demand and higher capacity.
That's what should happen.
Marginal utility drives diversity until cost > increased value.
Once the bubble pops, the dynamic reverses and diversity shifts towards conformity.
Cash for clunkers, awesome news, 8 of the top 10 were from the big 3, including the top 5.
Reality check: Trucks win in Cash for Clunkers game - Aug. 7, 2009
Just another example of why not to believe the government statistics.
Looking up a lot of the links here, not only does the U.S. have measles, the stored vaccine is ineffective and the disease has gone pandemic.
We all knew that but I get irritated when I can't read the street names or county/city names due to all those silly red dots.
I could go on with the snide jokes, but its just not working.
EHP
me thinks you never studied much political science in reading your comments on the Cash 4 Clunkers program. some weeks ago I read the Rep email from my former district in Indiana and his arguments for supporting it and realised that as strong as a conservative he is he had to support it for the Indiana Big 3 car base and
supply chain. of course, the fuel efficiancy was just a canard, political cover. Economists... whew!
....
weird?
that is Tom Hanks. I chose that picture cause I had access to it holding press credentials in NYC. chose him almost at random. no reason really. understand that many of my YouTube uploads are proof of concept or studies if you will. I may ask myself how long must I hold an image for it to register strongly or weakly and then test it. or perhaps
I'm digging a bit deeper into Eisenstein's theory of montage to see how it can be melded into today's fashionable 'fast or lightning editing' ...
or I'm doing some tag driven test on YouTube. I don't put upload the crown jewels, not for free I don't.
The Bernanke thing was a trifle but oddly it was a hit, that is if you consider under 1000 a hit. I did throw up a nice rant around Sept 17, '08 about Wall St
that was prescient in some ways... the squeezing of the frame, the carousel shooting and the skulls make for a nice claustrophobic atmosphere.
....
I don't think you understand the movie biz EHP when you say: " Change happened back around the Writers strike, in order to stretch out pipelines. I think the Harry Potter movie was moved from Christmas to recently as part of that. For the website though, I think there might be more promise with shorter films/serials to begin with. Biggest investment is time, makes sense to frequently reassess if project is worthwhile early on."
Understand that when the studios decided to clone the Weinstein model from the 90s it was because Harvey and brother had a string of hits beginning with with The Crying Game in '92 that were to be envied along with all the Oscar gold they picked up on the way. But much of Miramax's buona fortuna had to do with luck as much as anything else. They, the studios, have now shed these specialty divisions becuase they weren't profitable and went back to that time tested model of producing home runs.
Studios are not designed to hit singles, period.
...
Tom Stone --
The worst abusers I am acquainted with did not actually break any laws,they were grossly and obscenely unethical.If Duelling were legal I would have called them out and killed them. lower than the diseased slug molesters that spawned them.
I knew I liked you for a reason Tom!
My Ex once wrote a paper that if you brought back the good old fashion Duelling, (limit of two un-prosecuted murders) people would become much more social minded and the number of blatant frauds would be reduced dramatically. Think about it, the courts are not effective, and it creates a play ground for lawyers. How many people would be A..h.les in public if an 80 year old woman could pull out a gun and shoot them just because she's getting ready to die and wants to do a public service.
It would also help control the population, provide a very polite and well armed population. Think of the bubble in personal weapons and body armor.
Designer small projectile vest by armani. Where would the stock for S&W end up?
Forget squirrel recipes, if you want to change the world I would prefer that direction. I don't like squirrel, it taste too much like sloth.
For BFF, I'm just going to vote 7 until I'm right, and then do a little dance.
Tried to find a song by Prince, All Seven & We'll Watch Them Fall and it looks like the copyright police are on overtime to keep from getting laid off.
Good Morning All!
Happy BFF!
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- European central banks agreed to a third five-year cap on gold sales and said planned disposals by the International Monetary Fund could be done within the accord.
The European Central Bank and 18 other banks agreed to sell no more than a combined 400 metric tons of the metal a year through September 2014. That’s less than the annual cap of 500 tons in the current agreement, which expires Sept. 26.
Europe Central Banks Agree to Third Cap on Gold Sales (Update4) - Bloomberg.com
AIG Q2 EPS $2.30
AIG Q2 net income $1.82B
AIG Q2 revenue $29.5B vs $19.9B
AIG conference call: none.
That'll sky the market.
Rally a comin.
Re: cash for clunkers. I'm assuming most clunkers were paid off, and most people financed their new car (likely at a bad rate). Aren't there a lot of people who are gonna have $400-500 less to spend each month?
OT:
It's still early here.
Is anyone doing anything fun this weekend?
Just curious.
The government uses a more arcane measurement method that subdivides models according to engine and transmission types, counting them as separate models.
Sure, that makes sense. Why not throw in color as well! I was shocked when I read the rules regarding C4C and truck purchases. What a joke.
AIG: Squeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze
yeah HomeGnome...
I'll be back at the range this weekend practicing on a .50 caliber mounted machine gun
should fire a rocket but I need a good target, they don't come cheap unless of course the
gf's dad is willing to toss me a few on the house...
...
I have this interesting theory about the Khmer Rouge and the Huron indians in the way in
which they employed the use of 'terror', but I'll leave that for another day.
When you go outside of Phnom Penh I have heard 'farang' people warned not to make jokes about
the KR. it's a bit like Fight Club, you can only talk about them if you;re one and the gf is a blue blood
when it comes to that...
...
Munch:
you just wake up? that was announced 24 hours ago -AIG
Mr. Market just jammed.
-247,000
9.4%
unemployment 9.4%
how much are we up?
rally time
....good news out in the morning, bad news after the closing bell..........
SPX 1,500.... today!
crox is up 33%
Bogus numbers again.............
the other ac (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 9:48 pm
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Congress has passed a $2 billion extension of the popular "cash for clunkers" program, clearing the legislation for President Barack Obama's signature.
or "8-ball enema augmented crack pipe apparatus".
Where can I get one of these?
Of course, pre-market ultra
surely means a circuit-breaker day, right?
(Remember last year, when we kept waiting, and it NEVER happened?)
Seems to be a result of the seasonal adjustment--unadjusted numbers are flat or slightly up. The question is--is the seasonal adjustment working? We've had seeming inaccuracies in the adjustment to initial claims because the summer manufacturing layoff season was pre-empted by the spring rush, but I don't see why that should affect total unemployment.
Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
BSR: what in the release makes you think it's "bogus"?
BSR: what in the release makes you think it's "bogus"?
The source?
From the map, it looks like a serious outbreak of the porcine-bankster flu.
Hmmm how much did we have to drop the labor pool to get to a headline U-3 rate...hmmm top four lines of Table A:
Employment Situation Summary
True, but U6 is down two ticks in the this report as well.
Hey EHP, good to see you back. Good points, which I will mull over. I'll be watching US bonds and there's something niggling me about Yerp right now. Will have a scout around - working from home this morning.
C
If anyone is looking for data or a map of WI foreclosures. My site has the most up to date and complete data. Maybe I should give the goog a call.
Foreclosure Alarm
Duke of Con Dao
What I posted doesn't require my understanding. The studios have staggered their releases, and chose to release fewer movies at any one time to improve earnings per movie
.
.
hey Kauai_kahuna, Counterpointer, all
I need to begin putting some weight back into my predictions. There's probably not much I can add until then, other than a few anecdotes