Foreclosures:

One Giant Wave, Still Building: Cowabunga, dude!

Wow, time to go surfing...

Charlie Gasparino dont surf...

Alright. Call it the great second upward inflection and everyone is happy.

Graphs are powerful ways of cutting through the BS and bringing facts home on the gut level. As always -- Thanks, CR!

lot of economic destruction going on, any of it been creative yet?

How many more charts of "Danger Will Robinson, danger!" do we need before the flashing red lights sink in though?

For foreclosures, there are two clear waves (we're now well into the second) and for REOs there's only one, now mostly over, although obviously with new record levels of foreclosures there's a lot coming. So the multi-wave description works for thing normal people care about (people kicked out of their houses, and cheap houses to buy).

response from a few threads back, had to go "walkies".

MS,

When you say the prmeiums are richer ar eyou suggesting the market makers are pricing it that way to disuade?

Well in a nutshell yes.....they always hedge.... It's not the entire reason but there is certainly an added amount of "fluff" there to make me stay away from them.

Ciao
MS

huh. some recovery. net short still looks logical in light of the facts.

oh, and 10pct of the population is on food stamps according to drudge. glad goldman sachs is able to set compensation records this year.

bring it on. i've been saying this for a while - serious delinquencies have been building for a while. lawyerliz has shared some anecdotes - people living in houses without pay their mortgage for years.

Do Not Walk Away from a mortgage - just stop paying. You probably have 2 - 3 years before they come for you, depending on the circumstances (servicer, state, etc).

to add to ghost's comment.....you have 2-3 year's now. It will only get longer as more of these clog the pipeline.

Ciao
MS

If you notice, the NOD->ForeClosure timeline used to be 12 months:
Standard graph for Orange County: OC NODs vs FCs
Same graph w/ FCs shifted 12mo back: OC NODs vs FCs

amazingly, the NOD->FC count is almost dead even, up until the CA SB1137 bill got passed. Now, the timeline is anyones' guess.

Does that drop in REO rate while foreclosures ramping = shadow inventory?

Kilgore: If I say its safe to surf this beach Captain, then its safe to surf this beach. I mean I'm not afraid to surf this place, I'll surf this whole fucking place!

Im beginning to think that the living without paying the mortgage thing is part of the stimulus package.

living without paying your mortgage obligation. i wonder how china likes buying houses for americans to live in.

"Im beginning to think that the living without paying the mortgage thing is part of the stimulus package. "
I think you're right. It's certainly a bigger stim than the lower gas prices we had for a while.

OT Noise Alert for the Apocalypse.
YouTube -

Part of the package...we buy your crap, you buy our houses? Sounds equitable...all of it is mostly crap...

But... but... the recession is over and the bull market is back.
Isn't it?

Ok, anecdote and then out to lunch.

Was in line at probate court waiting so see clerk, and got to talking
with another "former real estate attorney" who is defending foreclosures.

He reminded me that there's a 5 year statutes of limitations. You have to
file foreclosure within 5 years of when the cause of action accues--when you
stop paying.

I have a couple of clients where it's been 1 or 2 years and nothing's doing.

There is a rule of civil procedure that says that your case gets dismissed if
you don't file a paper in 1 year. I've been tempted to file to dismiss, but
prefer not to, because then they might wake up. So, ok, it's 4 years and 11 months after
the foreclosure is filed and nothing's happened as to filing papers. So you
can file a motion to dismiss for failure to file any paper (assuming that's true) and
get the case dismissed. They don't refile right away, and anyway, payments stopped
at least 3 months before the filing, so now your mtg is no longer enforceable!!!

Bingo, free houses. Gives me a goal!!

"Im beginning to think that the living without paying the mortgage thing is part of the stimulus package. "

If so, somebody needs to tell the overly-virtuous who think they have to leave. Especially since the bank might not ever take the house, and they find themselves still liable for it years later when the city calls to ask what they're going to do about the bandos living there now.

OT, some dentists in AZ unable to make enough money, putting practices up for sale, in part because they can't compete on price w/dentists on the other side of border who set up practices right on the border between AZ/Mexico. Another product of the recession? http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/national-44/124957722940140.xml&storylist=health

CR,

Why would the gap between foreclosures and REO be widening? Does that indicate banks are now unloading REO as fast as they are are foreclosing on new inventory?

That would indicate the opposite of story that banks are holding REO of the market, wouldn't it?

Unfortunately, Charlie DOES own this beach-

"Bingo, free houses. Gives me a goal!! "

Interesting. I wonder what the law is per state. That could be huge for some people. I have seen dqs over 1000 days. Nothing at 1500 days.

Yet

No flood of REOs here, that I have heard of.

Suppose the lenders themselves funded 30 more judges in Palm Beach
so the accrued foreclosures are over in 6 months. There isn't the wherewithall
to get rid of the 40k houses!!

However, in our green-shoots alternate universe, these are ALL good things:

anti-forclosure
anti-capital
anti-earnings

Enough with the Elmo!. I wants me some Its not easy being green

It was formerly unheard of for a foreclosure to last that long!

Lenders totally incompetent first to last.

"If so, somebody needs to tell the overly-virtuous who think they have to leave. Especially since the bank might not ever take the house, and they find themselves still liable for it years later when the city calls to ask what they're going to do about the bandos living there now."

Amen to that. "Walking Away" makes ZERO sense. Just stop paying and stay in place. In some states, it is VERY hard to kick people out. I don't remember all the details, but I think New Jersey has one of the longest timelines. I will look it up, I have the data around somewhere...

Eric, what about your puts? Wink

I'm looking to lighten up on some stuff into the close, so please ask Its not easy being green to stop by the mining department when you see him.

Thanks!

Not smallpox this time, the plague of foreclosure sweeps the land...spreading so fast, critical mass is feared...already wiped out the city of Detroit...maybe that is what happened in the past...those ancient pyramids were just too dang expensive, people up and walking away in a bad economy...just kidding Wink

LLIz - I'm not an attorney, and you've made the case for a recourse loan in practice being non-recourse, but in the 5-year limit case you described ISTM that the lender could argue that the debt may be invalidated but we still own the house.

Forget Elmo! and Its not easy being green I am waiting for cookie monster to show up!

Trades on C and BAC are 25% of all NYSE volume

Eric, what about your puts?

Ssshhhhh.... reverse psych doesn't work if you point it out.

DOH!!!!!

Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 10:56 am
reply ignore user
Fair Economist and Liz,
I am embarrassed. I was too lazy to crush the silly claims of diseased Europeans wiping out the indigenous. The Pilgrims only gained a foothold because the Massasoit had in the few years before been decimated by disease, probably flu. Had that not happened the Pilgrims would have joined Roanoke, VA in the history books.

Does that go along with you crushing the silly claim a few weeks back that California doesn't allow gay marriages?

There are plenty of valid historical references to this issue.

I am waiting for cookie monster to show up!

When GS finishes positioning their shorts, I think he'll drop by . . . . (so to speak).

You keep saying you've got something for me.
something you call equity, but confess.
You've been a spendin' where you shouldn't have been a spendin'
and now someone else is deep in debt

These boobs will soon be walking, and that's just what they'll do
one of these days the booboise are gonna walk all over you.

You keep buying, when you oughta be savin'
and you keep losin' when you oughta not spent.
You keep up with the joneses' when you oughta be a changin'.
Now what's right is right, but you ain't been right yet.

These boobs will soon be walking, and that's just what they'll do
one of these days the booboise are gonna walk all over you.

You keep not payin' where you should be a payin'
and you keep thinkin' that you´ll never get burnt.
Ha!
I just found me a brand new batch of comp matches yeah
and what the future knows you ain't HAD time to learn.

These boobs will soon be walking, and that's just what they'll do
one of these days the booboise are gonna walk all over you.

Are you ready boobs? Start walkin'!

YouTube - Nancy Sinatra - These Boots Are Made For Walking (1966) 

Re: the overly-virtuous

However, one of the LAST things that separates Merica from a real Banana Republic is that the peasants STILL don't know it yet. This means the majority of the peasants are still living in a fear-based moral world (they DO walk away when they stop paying, which is "good"). This also makes the cops honest and the garbage-collectors collect.

If more and more people stop believing.... we WILL be a banana-republic from the bottom to the top. This isn't good. We need OUR peasants to have fear (morals).


Eric (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 2:06 pm

I am waiting for cookie monster to show up!

When GS finishes positioning their shorts

That could be interpreted at least one other way Wink

This was my question. Why are REO's going down? Bailout money anyone?

poic (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 11:06 am

Does that go along with you crushing the silly claim a few weeks back that California doesn't allow gay marriages?
There are plenty of valid historical references to this issue.

WTF are you talking about? Gays have always been allowed to marry. You have anything that I ever said otherwise?

"However, one of the LAST things that separates Merica from a real Banana Republic is that the peasants STILL don't know it yet. "

Agreed, many are still indoctrinated to believe American is the land of opportunity for all. Slowly but surely that mindset will fall away. The amount of wealth distribution we have seen in the past 10 years, as a result of the Fed-induced booms, will manifest itself in ways we are only beginning to see. We will see more and more of "protecting your own class at all costs", as we have witnessed with the bank bailouts.

I always thought Cookie Monster was a harbinger of the Apocalypse...And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And the Great Cookie Monster devoured the world. Something like that...

the REOs are dropping because of the moratoriums - it takes time to go through the foreclosure process and take ownership of a house - if the govt stops the foreclosure process from starting (which they did), it takes time to catch up.

i personally never believed the banks were holding back REOs from the market (helps to have firsthand knowledge), they just got behind because of the moratoriums and are only now starting to catch up.

that will be the true "wave" - the pipeline has been building and buidling and building - the REO numbers are the "second wave", wait until the banks catch up to those. it is gonna get ugly.

Dawg,

absolute bs. Big difference between marry and legally marry. You just like to split hairs on that one.

Can a gay couple get a marriage certificate at the court house?

That's what I call being allowed to marry. As does most of society.


NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 1:08 pm

Re: the overly-virtuous

However, one of the LAST things that separates Merica from a real Banana Republic is that the peasants STILL don't know it yet. This means the majority of the peasants are still living in a fear-based moral world (they DO walk away when they stop paying, which is "good"). This also makes the cops honest and the garbage-collectors collect.

If more and more people stop believing.... we WILL be a banana-republic from the bottom to the top. This isn't good. We need OUR peasants to have fear (morals).

As I've said before, as the meritocratic illusion is shattered visibly by lack of lockstep jobs and the ruling class overtly misbehaving without regard to consequence (because they know there are none for them), the scales start to fall from their eyes.

Trades on C and BAC are 25% of all NYSE volume

i think that speaks volumes (no pun intended)

again re REOs - note the offset to foreclosures (this is an excellent graph, btw) - the process is dq --> foreclosure --> reo. timeline may vary, the process does not.

so we saw a decline in foreclosures in sept - dec as the agencies really put on the brakes (then they allowed a few foreclosures as the clarified the rules - non owner occupacy was allowed, etc) then the decline in REO followed.

now we see foreclosures picking up - what's gonna happen to REOs? gee, i wonder.

what then happens to house prices? gee, i wonder.

compounded is the fact tht the selling season is over. oh, and mortgage rates have crept up.

Re: the scales start to fall from their eyes

But, I'm hoping it doesn't happen BEFORE I can get outahere tho. I'm thinking I've got at least 10 years. Merican peasants are THE most gullible in the world.

my family is almost evenly divided repub v dem

the righties are surprised to hear this lefty say that i think (guess) obama will not be able to stem an advancing economic depression

mathew padilla hits at a nerve

the continuing waves of RE collapse (and the continuing banksterism on wall street , a different topic) are foreboding

im struck by the numbers of people in high places who tried to stop the collapse and were force out...born is one example

heres another

SEC chairman, william donaldson....worth a fast blast to the past

how this honored sage of wallstreet and a republican tried to apply modest regs to derivatives and was forced out in 05

- NY Times

poic, I tried to get my wife to forgo the certificate. I wanted to hike up a mountain and get married alone at sunset...but we had the traditional marriage and certificate...12 1/2 years later, after all the family crap we have gone through, she wishes we had done it my way. I understand the need for legality but I separate the legal and real aspects of marriage. But that is another I don't understand society thing. Not to get between you and dawg, this is just an interesting topic for me.


ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 1:21 pm

now we see foreclosures picking up - what's gonna happen to REOs? gee, i wonder.

what then happens to house prices? gee, i wonder.

compounded is the fact tht the selling season is over. oh, and mortgage rates have crept up.

In the end, you can't fight a tsunami. Eventually capitulation and survival instinct overrides hubris, buy-in and years of education and propagandizing.

Re: marriage certificate

Married means when your spouce is in an accident and can't response the doctor call YOU, not the "spouces" immediate family. If it's not LEGAL, it's meaningless.

"But, I'm hoping it doesn't happen BEFORE I can get outahere tho. I'm thinking I've got at least 10 years. Merican peasants are THE most gullible in the world."

Not even virtuous Americans -- increasingly a minority in the economic sense -- will give you ten years. I don't see the banana republic path, _ necessarily_, but I do see serious populism if the current political establishment is too ossified to adapt. And populism can go any which way.

black dog, Matt gave me the definitions.

The 90 day is obvious and the "foreclosure" is actually "foreclosures in process". So that is a subset of the 90 day delinquent.

The REO rate is the percent of REOs held by banks. So we can see that their inventory is actually down - because they haven't been foreclosing.

Much depends on the success of modifications. Unfortunately half of Mods fail, and the rest are mostly "pretend and extend".

best to all

Re the marriage thing.

Been officially married to males twice, and it cost me a lot of money and trouble. Now I'd love to be able to marry my partner, having found the right person finally, and can't.

We forked out plenty of cash to have assorted papers drawn up to hopefully protect our legal access to each other, but it's not the same as a legal marriage license.

I get pissed off at the gay "marriage" racket. If it's not registerable at the county office, it's not a marriage! Why should I pay for soem stupid ceremony that just makes some planner a profit?

NOTaREALmerican wrote at 108

"However, one of the LAST things that separates Merica from a real Banana Republic is that the peasants STILL don't know it yet."


yeah all that and.... the peasants here are well armed

I'd like to hear cold hard facts on just what percentage of and where people are able to keep living in their homes because lenders do not follow thru on foreclosures.

Living in a generally non-bubble area, I would very highly doubt that is happening here. I believe 5 months is 5 months where I am. Not a lot of foreclosure activity anyway.

But other areas - I hear anecdotally here and believe it - but how widespread is this?

Any numbers? I suppose most people don't want to peep too much or they may wake up the sleeping giant.

Given that 40 years ago I couldn't marry my Chinese wife in the eyes of the law but I could "marry" her wink, wink, nudge, nudge I do take the verbal splitting of hairs on this issue a bit personally.

If you want to have your own version of what married means that runs counter to what society accepts it to mean fine. But please don't try to dazzle me with your bs on this issue.

"We forked out plenty of cash to have assorted papers drawn up to hopefully protect our legal access to each other, but it's not the same as a legal marriage license."

A lawyer once told me, "Marriage is a complete package of privileges and responsibilities. You can try to recreate it through a series of agreements -- but that is not preferable, nor as sound."

If two people are to be bonded together as a family unit, they deserve "the package." Or the equivalent.

I increasingly say: the state should not certify marriage: it should certify only civil unions for all, unions that guarantee the package. And let marriage be the mucky stomping ground of theologians.

Bob Dobbs,

totally agree

poic, Wasn't trying to dazzle, just trying to understand and talk...so sorry to hit a nerve.

Bob Dobbs, well said!

"I'd like to hear cold hard facts on just what percentage of and where people are able to keep living in their homes because lenders do not follow thru on foreclosures."

VERY difficult to get numbers on how many delinquent homes are vacant versus occupied. Even the servicers don't really know. Often they don't even have a valid phone number for the borrower (ask me how that works, it is a kick). They only find out sometimes when the sheriff goes to the door to take it over.

I can tell you that I see loans that are years and years delinquent. Whether anyone is in those homes, I don't know. But many loans are years down.

At a minimum, I rarely see a foreclosure processed within 180 days. Six months free rent is nothing to sneeze at.

heck, they don't even start proceedings until you are 90 days down.

Bob Dobbs - I try not to be too verbal on this topic as it's hard to argue philosophy, but your comment describes my attitude concisely.

Vonbek,

sorry that wasn't directed at you at all Smile

The economic motive of walking away was never part of the stress tests. Big mistake imo.

Even if you have a job, what's the point of paying on a house when six other similar properties are for sale on your block for 50% less?

Given all the bailouts and wall st. bonuses, I think more and more will say screw it and ruthlessly jingle mail the albatross away. People will be able to improve their financial situations AND screw the banks at the same time. That's a BIG incentive.

Hell hath no fury like scorned, underwater home owers.

it's another reason they are trying to prop home sales, and confidence in a housing recovery and economic recovery. If they let too much momentum build for too long on a national basis, they'd have all sorts of people going jingle, and that eventually becomes a serious nightmare. They'd want to avoid this in the same way the Fed professes to want to avoid deflation.

If two people are to be bonded together as a family unit, they deserve "the package." Or the equivalent.

That is the crux of the matter. What is a "family unit"? Hetero couples have caused so much havok with the family law system in our country that there isn't any sort of understanding that plays out across all jurisdictions and all states. You can say it is a state's right issue and pass some form of uniform legal structure like we have for child custody, but Congress and the states would need to agree to that structure. Hence the hodge-podge of agreements vs. human cultural history.

"Civil Unions" are fine if you can agree with them. If you go the route of 2 legal aged adults, then rest assured that the polygamist/polyamory sects will come out. They have human cultural history on their side versus gay couples so it isn't a large step to hop to 1 legal aged adult with many legal aged adults. Then you have even more fun stuff to throw at family law once you make allowances for the polygamist/polyamory folk.

Makes the 1 man & 1 woman argument much more practical and easier.

I can't handle the base function. 1st and 2nd derivative please!

At a minimum, I rarely see a foreclosure processed within 180 days. Six months free rent is nothing to sneeze at.

heck, they don't even start proceedings until you are 90 days down.

ghostface - I forget what state you're in - is it Cali? Here in NH the procedure is much shorter. From what I understand, you have 5 months from the first missed payment until you are o-u-t the door.

The market is finally starting to sell off a little as the dollar has come off its low today. I find it interesting that CNBC had on the woman from DB in the past hour who said that they estimate that by 2011 half of all homeowners in the US will be underwater on their mortgage.

ghostfaceinvestah - Where are you located?

Reviving my anecdote - son lives in an apartment in a home in Berkeley. Landlady quit paying mortgage last September, quit collecting rent in November and moved out in December. My son is the only person living in this 3-unit property. A Notice of Default was filed in early June, nine months after the last mortgage payment.

That's where it stands.

Re: Makes the 1 man & 1 woman argument much more practical and easier.

What's wrong with "two consenting adults". Takes the wacko religious people right out of the picture.

(Not that I have ANYTHING against parallel marrages. I've been trying to convince my wife that I need a 25 yo hottie a few times a week for years now. For some reason, she says it's not a good idea.)

From what I understand, you have 5 months from the first missed payment until you are o-u-t the door.

That's assuming the bank wants you out. If you're out, they have to re-mark the paper.

I think the joke implied above is that gays have been getting legally married in this country since it was founded.

Just not to each other.

(edit: I SUPPORT gay marriage.)

Once you take religion out of marriage, all bets are off regarding different multiples of legal adults entering partnerships. At that point, the government needs to get out of providing rights based on "marriage" and just deal with contract issues between self-described, voluntary family groups.

What's wrong with "two consenting adults". Takes the wacko religious people right out of the picture.

Nothing is wrong with it, but how do you stretch it out logically and legally with "three or more consenting adults"? If you stop at two but don't hop to three or four, then you are thinking in just as arbitrary manner as the "one man, one woman" folks.

Again, it is because heterosexuals made the marriage/divorce system the joke it is today. I have nothing against gay marriage at all. All of the Extend & Pretend in our financial & political system has been going on in our family law systems for the past 60+ years, and the fact that we have the problems of dealing with gay marriage are just symptoms of greater societal issues.

This marriage discussion reminds me of a very awkward Christmas. We usually try to do Christmas with my parents, they were in Korea at the time, couldn't come home...so our second Christmas together was to be spent alone...my extended family was off limits after our wedding (bitched and insulted us for getting married to young) and wife's family is off limits period due to her being abused growing up... anyway at the last minute a co-worker of my wife invited us to her home for Christmas. She was the the daughter of a Baptist minister, who was a son of a Baptist minister. Big Baptist Christmas. I didn't want to go, but my wife felt the need to be polite. We get there and find out older brother and boyfriend have flown in from east coast and this is the public outing and we are there to diffuse the situation. Grandpa was a little slow on the uptake, and when it finally dawned on him, he almost choked on the holiday yams.

Well, I've heard zero anecdotes locally about people staying in homes w/o paying.

There either aren't any stories here, or I'm just not listening in on the right conversations.

I think we need a northeast CR. This is all very interesting, but it just doesn't relate to my area.

"WTF are you talking about? Gays have always been allowed to marry. You have anything that I ever said otherwise? "

Dawg, re: a conversation we had some weeks back: you're right, not everybody gets your sense of humor. Still takes it a while for me to get it.

according to the data i have, ME, DE, VT, IL take a long time to get people out. NH? pretty fast.

CA is middle of the road, actually kind of quick.

fastest seem to be GA and MD.

it all depends on state laws, I think, some states are what they call "judicial foreclosure" or not, how backed up the courts are, etc.

and then of course today it depends highly on the servicer - a big bank will probably take longer than if you local bank is actually servicing their own mortgages (rare as that may be).

but in some states, it takes a while no matter what.

based on my data, Liz's state is actually middle of the road in terms of time frame, but clearly that is not the case today as they are so backed up.

Haven't heard about anyone I know staying/not-paying. Just one neighbor (a realtwhore) who tried to bail. Bought the 2nd house, made 2 payments for a year, then sold the 1st on a short sale. I don't know any details, other than that it involved a divorce right after adopting 2 kids.

I should go get a mortgage and never make a payment.

I am feeling too irrational for denying my free ride.

"I've heard zero anecdotes locally about people staying in homes w/o paying."

Its not the kind of thing people talk about at parties...yet.

...just deal with contract issues between self-described, voluntary family groups.

Again, that is the real issue, but just like we aren't going to reform CA's fiscal budget or Wall Street's capture of regulatory structures over a single session of a legislative body, we aren't going to overhaul 200+ years of case law and statutes to figure out that Gordian Knot that is the redefining of the family unit that has been happening for 60+ years.

Until we can agree on what "voluntary family groups" are--children traditionally don't get a say in the groups in which they exist until later in life--then we are back to separate pre-nups, post-nups, and contract law.

Kilgore: Smell that? You smell that?
Lance: What?
Kilgore: Napalm, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that.
[kneels]
Kilgore: I love the smell of napalm in the morning. You know, one time we had a hill bombed, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' dink body. The smell, you know that gasoline smell, the whole hill. Smelled like
[sniffing, pondering]
Kilgore: victory. Someday this war's gonna end...
[suddenly walks off]

ghostface - thank you for the general timelines. That helps put the story in perspective.

"Well, I've heard zero anecdotes locally about people staying in homes w/o paying."

Either people aren't talking (I wouldn't if I did it - I would just do it), or people are walking.

I know of several people who just walked. They just didn't want to bother with it anymore, and found somewhere to rent. I told them they should have stayed, but they said "i just want to be out of there".

i can understand that mindset, though you leave a lot on the table.

"I always thought Cookie Monster was a harbinger of the Apocalypse...And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third beast say, Come and see. And I beheld, and lo a black horse; and he that sat on him had a pair of balances in his hand. And the Great Cookie Monster devoured the world. Something like that..."

"C is for cookie, and that's good enough for me." Very illustrative of the American mindset. No need to worry about the rest of the alphabet. Grandkids can worry about that mountain of debt getting kicked down the road.

this seems to be a good table, haven't examined in depth yet, but seems reasonable.

Foreclosure Laws and Procedures By State 

note MD and GA, as I mentioned - fast.

Re: of greater societal issues

You are probably right about it being a "line-in-the-sand" thing, for both sides. I guess because I have a knee-jerk reaction to anything supported by BOTH fundies AND Republicans I will have to side with THOSE LIE-BRALS on this one. But, you are also right, next it will be those OPEN marriage people. Marriage is obsolite anyway Mostly it's just a method to force males to take financial-responsiblity for his kids. Otherwise, the males would just be engaged in financially-free serial "marriages" which is what is natural anyway (and based on the number of single young females running around with kids is what's happening anyway).

ghostface - if it were me, I'd stay put. Moving is a royal pain.

But if that shoe was hanging over my head, never knowing which day the sheriff might be at your door telling you you have an hour to pack up and leave, then I'd probably move more quickly.


Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 1:57 pm

"C is for cookie, and that's good enough for me." Very illustrative of the American mindset. No need to worry about the rest of the alphabet. Grandkids can worry about that mountain of debt getting kicked down the road.

Nah - the smartest and most ruthless of those grandkids will just figure out a way to kick that mountain of debt further down the road to their grandkids. It will go until it stops.

Not the Stay-puff Marshmallow Man?

It looks like Texas has the hands-down shortest timeframe? Wish it would sort by process days.

Well being raised very traditional Baptist--I didn't get to see Ghostbusters until I was much older. Funny how all the movies my mom banned when I was growing up are now some of her favorite...

Wow, Calculated Risk posted my chart. That's a special kind of honor, considering your charts are so good. I think the main argument here is that we don't have to wait for loan recasts and resets to see more delinquencies. They are happening right now.

"I should go get a mortgage and never make a payment.

I am feeling too irrational for denying my free ride."

Better get your free ride soon, or be priced out forever... The system is broken, when those who bought more house than they could afford, and HELOC themselves to the edge of the cliff, make out like bandits, while the fiscally responsible get stuck with the tab. That even those who got Mods and have a portion of their debt forgiven, still default at 50%!

A decrease in the rate of foreclosure is far from fewer foreclosures

More local data (but REAL data)...

Alameda County (CA) Trustee Deeds (completed foreclosures) were averaging 450/mo during Jan-May. Then June was ~750 and July 617, so there is definitely a jump after a lull.

Further, Notices of Trustee Sale (the final threat before foreclosure) leaped from 895 in June to 1331 in July and is running at a pace of 1200 for August.

"we have fewer foreclosures "

And stricter lending standards.

But, you are also right, next it will be those OPEN marriage people. Marriage is obsolite anyway Mostly it's just a method to force males to take financial-responsiblity for his kids. Otherwise, the males would just be engaged in financially-free serial "marriages" which is what is natural anyway (and based on the number of single young females running around with kids is what's happening anyway).

FD: I live in the world of family law and earn my daily bread in this field. Nothing I state should be taken as anything other than my personal/private opinion.

Yes, marriage is a way to form tight social bonds for multiple reasons but it has always existed for the purpose of estate planning and of doling out responsibilities for taking care of the next generation. Anything else is sentiment/personal opinion added to it after the fact.

"Once you take religion out of marriage, all bets are off regarding different multiples of legal adults entering partnerships."

Nothing's ever finished in public policy, nor perfect. Ever. As soon as you declare civic unions as between two adults, the controversy starts over again.

But the "package" for two adults solution would work for now (AKA a generation or two), because that lifestyle is increasingly accepted by mainstream society.

And after the law is changed, of course, the polyamory/polygamy people will agitate and demonstrate for an extension of the privilege. And after they become part of the demographic mainstream, something will happen.

"And stricter lending standards. "

Yes, Texas is pretty instructive. It has MUCH stricter lending standards on cash out refis (all the "homestead" laws that restrict fees).

No doubt it made a huge difference, the subprime vultures were present in Texas, but much more wary of violating state laws.

"....."

.....I can't think of a better way to retire our foreign held Treasuries..........sell them the crap MBS..........You think you have it bad with an American landlord? Try a Chinese one - especially if he also owns the entire block.......


Fair Economist (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 1:48 pm

For foreclosures, there are two clear waves (we're now well into the second) and for REOs there's only one, now mostly over, although obviously with new record levels of foreclosures there's a lot coming. So the multi-wave description works for thing normal people care about (people kicked out of their houses, and cheap houses to buy).
Is the perturbation in the ramp actually due to a freeze on foreclosures that occurred in the Fall?

Amazon.com: Marriage, a History: How Love Conquered Marriage (9780143036678): Stephanie Coontz: Books

An intersting read on marriage. I'm also researching mate selection/preference and nothing is so cut & dried as religious/traditional folks make it out to be. Marriage (opposite sex) goes against many male AND female instincts and often isn't the best strategy for either sex in raising offspring.

I have just read on a wacko site that the Illuminati are card caring Platonic idealists who worship Lucifer the all seeing eye and that the idea of a Philosopher King is a conspiracy to remove 90% of the population from the face of the earth...why didn't anyone invite me to join the club...where's my card? I have been arguing for a Philosopher King since grade school...snobs.

Goldman Sachs' Cohen: New bull market has begun
Goldman Sachs' Cohen: New bull market has begun
| Reuters

U.S. stocks have entered a new bull market, and the S&P 500 index could rise as much as 10 percent from current levels by the end of this year, Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on CNBC on Thursday.

not taking sides but marriage is a religous ceremony recognized by the state, not the religous community recognizing the states authority...

The states recognized/sponsored unions are civil unions, the state should legalize gay civil unions...more hair splitting and semantics but truth...

Re the marriage OT topic...Heinlein had a recurring theme about marriage. The old it aint nobody's bidness if all involved are consenting adults. One of the other ideas that pops up also regarding marriage is that it is for the benefit of whatever children may be created, birthed or adopted. Better for children involved to have more than one adult committed to their welfare and health. I do agree with him. 3 guys and 4 women want a marriage contract..have at it. Of course everything was spelled out in the contract from dissolution, to death to riders on who has to cook breakfast if asked. Makes sense to me.

Vonbeck77--Me and some friends call your preference for marriage 'marrying Mando' from the writer Karen Traviss. (Star wars expanded universe alert haha im a geek)

OK, on topic from hotel thread (catching up, just woke up)

Anecdotal, but eyewitness since I work at one. People are trading down which is helping us. Our revpar is taking a hit but our occupancy is eeking out above the national.
However instead of selling out and throwing the no vacancy light on by 10 pm it is taking longer and longer and still only 90-95 percent. there have been sell-outs this season but not like it should be. People are getting crankier and dumber. Perhaps the recession rage is harming brain cells. We lock our doors now at 9 pm and buzz people in to check in since in my area (shenandoah valley va) there have been 3 robberies of hotels, one armed. So the desperation is starting to lead to more crime.

About foreclosures. I have followed zip 22601 off and on over the past 4 years on Realtytrac. When i started there were less than 10 each under auction and bank owned as of this moment there is 208 going up for auction and 366 bank owned. Peanuts compared to Cali, Fl etc but for here...lots. Makes me giggle too because at the height of the madness the city council decided they were tired of renters, and wanted more homeowners and began an undeclared war on landlords and tennants. there was even a quote from one in the local rag about how we have had enough renters it was time for the other communities surrounding to pick up the slack and renters to move to more 'affordable' locations and come in to town to work the minimum wage jobs and to push for more homeowners. ha.heehee heeehee. I wonder how that is working out for them? I know in their black little hearts they were thinking--real estate only goes up, therefore impact fees, taxes, fines will only go up up up!

And after the law is changed, of course, the polyamory/polygamy people will agitate and demonstrate for an extension of the privilege. And after they become part of the demographic mainstream, something will happen.

I don't buy that argument. The Mormons were openly living in polygamist family units long before the debate of gay marriage was even fathomable. The fact that separate sects of the Mormon church still practice it--sans the spiritual marriages of minors--doesn't diminish the problem should they be denied if you allowed gay marriage/civil unions. Overlooking them and only allowing gays the acceptance and legal protection seems like a social injustice just waiting to be passed into law.

You don't have religious support--sans Mormons--for either. You don't have a social mandate for either--see Red City vs. Blue City. You don't even have much of a human services for either until you talk about gay adoption/child support. If you want to just make it law 'cause it conveniently fits into a person's personal view of the world so be it, but to make it public policy for no other reason than "They are already doing it" doesn't help you close the legal barn door to the people you do not want to protect with its coverage.

"Is the perturbation in the ramp actually due to a freeze on foreclosures that occurred in the Fall? "

Yes, absolutely.


Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 2:14 pm

I have just read on a wacko site that the Illuminati are card caring Platonic idealists who worship Lucifer the all seeing eye and that the idea of a Philosopher King is a conspiracy to remove 90% of the population from the face of the earth...why didn't anyone invite me to join the club...where's my card? I have been arguing for a Philosopher King since grade school...snobs.

That is a whacko site. Makes all those loons from the late 90s talking about how the world had been taken over by a criminal syndicate of international bankers and financiers sound quite sane. Oh, wait a minute here...

ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 2:59 pm reply Ignore user this seems to be a good table, haven't examined in depth yet, but seems reasonable.

Foreclosure Laws and Procedures By State

note MD and GA, as I mentioned - fast.

speaking as a Md'r and former GA'ian these are minimum times, actually happening in MD a whole lot slower is at all now.... 180 on service maybe...

"U.S. stocks have entered a new bull market, and the S&P 500 index could rise as much as 10 percent from current levels by the end of this year, Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen said on CNBC on Thursday. "

Market definitely dropping, then, someone posted this earlier, her call in 2007.

this call from late 2007

"She says the S&P 500 will hit 1,675 by the end of 2008, a gain of 14.5 percent over 1,463 at market close Tuesday."

Only off by 772 S&p points.

With all the problems facing America today; are we really discussing who gets to be married and who doesn't?
Who the F*ck cares?
Divide and Conquer is alive and well.
Crying

if tranny means the same thing as a shill, then yes.

Some relief possibly coming for SRS losers (like me)!

Claims ProShare ETF Didn't Disclose Material Info
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A lawsuit filed Wednesday claims that ProShare Advisors LLC and others violated a securities act by failing to disclose risks inherent in its ProShares UltraShort Real Estate fund (SRS), an inverse leveraged exchange-traded fund, including the risk of a "spectacular tracking error."

WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com

Some relief possibly coming for SRS losers (like me)!

Claims ProShare ETF Didn't Disclose Material Info
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A lawsuit filed Wednesday claims that ProShare Advisors LLC and others violated a securities act by failing to disclose risks inherent in its ProShares UltraShort Real Estate fund (SRS), an inverse leveraged exchange-traded fund, including the risk of a "spectacular tracking error."

WSJ Error Page - WSJ.com

76 users online.

CR, I suggest the absence of a quorum.

And worse: It's being discussed because Dawg's dry humor was misread. Bad Dawg! Next time make the humor wetter!

NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 2:59 pm reply Ignore user

Otherwise, the males would just be engaged in financially-free serial "marriages" which is what is natural anyway (and based on the number of single young females running around with kids is what's happening anyway).

come on now if you truly believe anti fundie then you would believe eveloution and darwinism and then follow up your observation with "while natural as well, the majority of the fatherless household offspring will eventually end up on social assistance, locked up , under educated and majority of the labor servatude there by enforcing the survival of the fitest concept"

wink

Re: Divide and Conquer is alive and well.

Well IF we could split the current Republicans into a Christian Fascist party (mean authority-worshippers) AND a Libertarian Party (mean, authority-doubters). And also split the current Democrats into a Socialist Party (gullible ,authority-worshippers) AND the Green Party (gullible, authority-doubters) THEN we might have a possiblity of "fixing" Merica. But, that ain't gonna happen, so divide n conquer is all we're gonna get.

Cheer up HomeGnome, least we have football to look forward too in a few weeks, unlike Argentina... although if we built an arena and put GS employees in it against, ohh I don't know, sharks with laser beams...might have a new American pastime...

With all the problems facing America today; are we really discussing who gets to be married and who doesn't?

Who the F*ck cares?

When people pay you to work through the issue of marriage and divorce, you care. Party

Queue the Upton Sinclair quote.

Some relief possibly coming for SRS losers (like me)!

No, relief coming to the lawyers. You might see enough money out of the settlement for a latte. Maybe a double.

including the risk of a "spectacular tracking error."

Nonsense. They track very well, and perform close to what is claimed in the prospectus. It's just that people didn't read the details and assumed a whole lot based on the title.

we haven't shared "long pig" recipes in a while

The New Yorker offered up a 2 year subscription for $50, 94 issues.

List price is $469.

And it's one of the few magazines I get in the flesh anymore, @ around 50 cents a copy.

Think you'd like to be in the magazine biz?

GDD9000 (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 3:20 pm reply Ignore user if tranny means the same thing as a shill, then yes.

lotta that going around, must be the new fad....

Just a rambling conversation Homegnome. I have finally figured out that my support or anger at the events today really do not matter---they will play out whether I cheer or hurl pitchforks. Knowing what is happening is a tool and advantage, but getting worked up over it---that is done. The time for citizens to ramp up and get riled up was 30 years ago. Now it is just the fallout. So in that vein, what is wrong with a slightly OT rambling polite conversation between online acquaintances and possibly friends? There is enough on topic comments to keep it from total free-fall. Laughing out loud

Loved your wife's site.

JD: It's free online. ANd no ads.

Dumb Question: Is the percentage a percentage of mortgage loans or is it as a percentage of outstanding principal balance of mortgage loans? For example, if 5% of the loands are 90+ delinquent and there are 100 loans is it 5 loans or is it based upon the dollar balance of the loans. The reason why I ask is because of the coming waive of jumbo delinquencies and defaults.

Thoughts appreciated.

90 day plus delinquency chart is on OC and very interesting. Is there a 90 day plus delinquency chart for the whole US?

Glad you enjoyed it, rsj.
Mrs. Gnome is one amazing chef.
Laughing out loud

JP,

It's hard to read online in the backcountry...

Kermit is trying to swim to the surface...elmo better grab a foot and pull him down.

In Los Angeles, it is still so much cheaper to rent at the high-end than to buy. And if you save the difference in costs, you're building "equity" from Day 1 of renting. Instead of waiting until year 3 of mortgage paying to start paying down the principal.

TomTheBear (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 3:29 pm replyIgnore userDumb Question

not a dumb question as both would be nice to know as one effects the MBS markets and therefore bailout potential more than the other...interesting thought!

Some of you cast aspersion about claims that white men were the carriers of disease in the new world, so riddle me this...

California had most native indians per capita, more than any other state, as the Golden State has always been an easy place to live~

When the Spaniards starting doing the mission thing, there was a shitlode of indians around, and there was still plenty when the gold rush started, but where are they all now?

but where are they all now?

a lot are in the quickie marts, hotels and liquor stores and, huh? Oh never mind.....

We: but where are they all now?

Who is Running all the Casinos?
(They should have started them in 1492)

I'll take dieties for 400.

"And after the law is changed, of course, the polyamory/polygamy people will agitate and demonstrate for an extension of the privilege. And after they become part of the demographic mainstream, something will happen."

And then what, about the bestiality people? The animal sacrifice people, followed by the human sacrifice people? You'll already find people who explain that Aztec human sacrifice wasn't so bad, because the victims - they say - were all for it.

What about the concentration camp people and the slave labor people? Haven't we had plenty of people assert that the slaves were happy and preferred to be slaves?

Fais ce que voudras? [Rabelais wrote that people were inherently reasonable, and therefor could be trusted to pleasure themselves without hindrance. Do what thou wilt.] Will that be our law?

There was Orwell's boot forever stamping on a human face. Is that where it all leads?

There is a reason for transcendent moral law. If it is abolished, we will find out why there was a reason.

I have a question to throw out. I may throw it out in the future too as other posters come online so i can get their take.

A book I read last night (fiction) had as a sub theme trust. Societal trust. Gave some specific examples of high trust areas, and low trust, and familial trust areas and how that can and will affect the outcome of disaster relief, rescue and repair. If an area is low trust and familial then any emergency response unit will take flak and possibly worse and the outcome for that area would be suboptimal, yet in high trust areas (suburban, rural) voluntary random associations would possibly develop and no one would wait around for government manna, they would begin organizing support and such.

This would tie in to the bananna republic theme would it not? Once all trust is gone, trust in cops, garbage collectors, army, neighbors, shoot even soemtimes family, then that will be a very ugly situation. Recovery would become that much harder, yes?

My question is how do you see trust? What do you see in your area? High trust, low trust? How is that affecting the quality of life wherever you are (if anyone responds?)

Also in this book had alot to say in the subplots about organic farming vs intensive modern farming, specifically that feeding our nation on total organic is a dream, there would be famine, that the footprint of organic farming would be worse for the environement etc.....anyone have recommendations of sites and books to check out? thanks.

The San Manuel clan of Mission Indians that runs a large casino, claims a dozen members...

Other indian casinos have like numbers, not very many.


pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 2:38 pm

There is a reason for transcendent moral law. If it is abolished, we will find out why there was a reason.

+1. Personally I don't believe in human ownership, even by consent, so I have little opinion.

CR why you making waves Big smile

JD, I said the disease thing was the best explanation...but we just flat out killed a lot of them too. See this is what I am talking about...there are no oral traditions about mass disease and extinctions and times before the plagues, and there wouldn't be if it killed everyone...but there are stories about the white man murdering every living man, woman, and child wholesale...so I don't know how to reconcile. It interests me because on my both sides, I have two great-grandmothers who were 100% Native American, and the stories that came down, were not pretty all the way up to the 1940s.

texas learned its lesson in the s&l crisis. it's not like these rednecks haven't tried running these scams already.

Modern large American cities pushed anonymity, which allows you to think the worst of somebody you don't know...

Not good~

ResistanceIsFeudal wrote:

+1. Personally I don't believe in human ownership, even by consent, so I have little opinion."

There are people who predict that people will claim their clones as property.

Nightmare time.

there is some unrest building in mudville. the video is a bit of a yawn, but the comments in the thread are getting interesting:

Rep. Steny Hoyer (D) Called A Liar, Shouted Down For Presenting Misleading Economic Data | zero hedge

And then what, about the bestiality people?

Did you just compare the union between two consenting adults to buggery?

As of 2007, Census Bureau data says CA had about 400,000 American Indians, 1.2% of the population.

See this is what I am talking about...there are no oral traditions about mass disease and extinctions and times before the plagues, and there wouldn't be if it killed everyone...but there are stories about the white man murdering every living man, woman, and child wholesale...so I don't know how to reconcile.

Plenty of oral tradition surrounding the Great War. Not much about the Spanish flu. Perhaps enduring memories need a bad guy.

I thought "buggery" referred to anal sex.

"Dumb Question: Is the percentage a percentage of mortgage loans or is it as a percentage of outstanding principal balance of mortgage loans? For example, if 5% of the loands are 90+ delinquent and there are 100 loans is it 5 loans or is it based upon the dollar balance of the loans. The reason why I ask is because of the coming waive of jumbo delinquencies and defaults."

Not a dumb question.

Delinquency rates are usually by count. I am not sure if this is the case here, but that is the norm. So dollar impact could be different.

Perhaps everyone will join me in a moment of silence in remembrance of the atomic bombing at Hiroshima; 64 years ago...
and for all who have lost family and friends during the folly of war...

V777,

The native indians here had excellent relations with the few white folks that settled in the 1850's, but by the mid 1860's they started dropping like flies from Measles.

The only thing the indians did differently was they all had sweatlodges, so the settlers burned down every last one of them, thinking that they were the cause of the deaths, not a microscopic organism...

Rinse and repeat all over California, and wipe out 90% of a tribe @ a whack~

Re: the people.

I think two consenting adults would take care of all your various combinations, AND will work for a few MORE centuries (and you AND I will both be dead so the we're BOTH sure the universe will be at an end)

there is some unrest building in mudville.

Republican rabble. They appear in every Democratic administration and attempt to block all progress.

There is a reason for transcendent moral law. If it is abolished, we will find out why there was a reason.

Pavel:

You hit the nail right on the head.

There is no logical conclusion to this progressive civil rights movement besides letting everyone do what they want until it goes to far. That is a dirty little secret of this gay marriage debate. Once the heterosexuals were cut loose with No Fault divorce, then the entire structure threw out whatever claim it had to transcendent moral law. You might as well extend the rights to the disenfranchised because the line is completely arbitrary. Citing religion, social movements, or philosophical argument just colors the arbitrary nature with a flavor you prefer.

I've dealt with fact patterns that could be the poster child for making marriage This or That, but in the end, it is all fluid and transient once we broke out of a religious and society-mandated structure. The preacher today is the adultery-driven divorcee tomorrow.


pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 2:43 pm

There are people who predict that people will claim their clones as property.

Nightmare time.

Although also a bit of a step up, morally. Slavery wasn't that long ago. We are a lot younger than we think we are, as a culture. Our span of life gives us a rather distorted perspective on things that don't operate on anything near the span of a single human life.

Rocky,

I'm in Steny's district, he was well loved here by both parties for the "jobs and money" he is now boo'ed at stadiums and by the very civil servants whose buildings he brought to MD... it is not pretty. Now he is hated by...strike that not hated, but majority are extremely disappointed in his non reluctance to push this through and how fast he is to allow the dems to renig on what was touted by him pre election as reform and change....

not what they were expecting and he could face a challenge regardless of war chest, if someone decent runs in primary or generaL AGAINST HIM....

It's hard to believe, but 50 years ago if you wanted to get a divorce, about the only option was to get one in Nevada, which required you live in state for a period of 6 months, before it was granted to you...

I have always wanted Hollywood to make a retelling of Sodom and Gomorrah...I especially wanted to see the look in the angel's eyes when the crowd tries to rape the 'man in white' outside of Lot's house and the ensuing carnage...wanted to see God tell Abraham that he must go to Sodom to see the 'evil' with his own eyes. Powerful stuff there.

The argument about marriage is a slippery slope...it is hard to navigate and it is yet another human condition that seems prone to cycles.

sportsfan (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 3:48 pm reply Ignore user there is some unrest building in mudville.

Republican rabble. They appear in every Democratic administration and attempt to block all progress.

and tit for tat... depends whose jersey you are wearing that sunday i guess...

It's hard to believe, but 50 years ago if you wanted to get a divorce, about the only option was to get one in Nevada, which required you live in state for a period of 6 months, before it was granted to you...

And it is that way with gay divorce now. 50 years from now, maybe the polygamists on some cyber-mental-chat-message board will reflect poetically such as we are now..

I hit the save button too soon (and then you locked it.)

I meant to kill the post, because I realized I was taking part in a discussion where comparisons were being made between two consenting adults and sex with animals.

Just never mind.

majority are extremely disappointed in his non reluctance to push this through and how fast he is to allow the dems to renig on what was touted by him pre election as reform and change....

Not hard to see which team you're rooting for.

Republicans brought us to the brink of the Greater Depression. Democrats haven't solved every problem in the first six months.

Facts, Jack.

The argument about marriage is a slippery slope...it is hard to navigate and it is yet another human condition that seems prone to cycles

\soup de jour on a soup buffet....

I meant to kill the post, because I realized I was taking part in a discussion where comparisons were being made between two consenting adults and sex with animals.

+1 LoL!

Locking response to preserve it!

Elephants AND Asses
Trampling the Masses
Does it matter who steals from you?
Red or Blue?

Quick, somebody get a seance going, so we can channel Elizabeth the Great & mate...

Democrats haven't solved every problem in the first six months.

sports fan calm down you act like this dem admin exec/leg is the first dem admin ever...

historically none have done what is best or right, but what they ideologically thought was bbest for them and most involved power of the single or self or power of the group or union...but power all the same and no govt program has ever come in under budget and on time by any party...

fact jack...

If a State wanted income, they could allow same sex marriages at say $500 per license

Re: Recovery would become that much harder, yes?

This is my primary scare for the next 30 years. Trust is really the ONLY thing that holds societies together and you can't mandate or regulate trust. It's built up slowly and can be destroyed quickly.

Personally, I live in a nice guilt-ridden liberal town. These people, being socialists, are genetically trusting - which is why the facsists will wipe them out so quickly. Liberals have no concept of how bad humans really are (again, it's all genetics). They are good to be around when times are good tho (which they still are - in this town - as it lives off the State Government).

Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama.

Let's break them down by who shit on the Constitution.

Let's break them down by who acquired trillions of dollars of debt for someone else to pay.

Let's break them down by who didn't give a rats ass for anyone but the wealthiest 2% of the population.

Get the picture?


Fiduciary Doodie (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 3:51 pm

sportsfan (profile) wrote on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 3:48 pm reply Ignore user there is some unrest building in mudville.

Republican rabble. They appear in every Democratic administration and attempt to block all progress.

and tit for tat... depends whose jersey you are wearing that sunday i guess...

Also depends on whether you call resurrecting failed '30s policies "progress"


yagij (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 3:51 pm

It's hard to believe, but 50 years ago if you wanted to get a divorce, about the only option was to get one in Nevada, which required you live in state for a period of 6 months, before it was granted to you...

Are you sure it wasn't 6 weeks?

Thank you NotaREALamerican.

Since the thread got pigged I can yak a bit without disturbing the on-topic flow since there is a new thread upstream. Working through some thoughts and hoping to bounce them off the commentariat here. I am having a change going on in my thought processes about all this going on and honestly it is disturbing and almost painful.

Many rag on the j6pii for their foolishness and gullibility especially regarding their purchases of houses. I was one of them. I used the word sheeple and fools together many times in my head and heart, and in conversation too. I am starting to squirm with shame about that. (it sucks, sigh) but it gets back to trust. Yes, many were gaming the system, planning to flip, real estate only goes up, buy before priced out forever. but many many bought with the thought 'this is my home, this is the next step, this is the dream baybeee" and believed, trusted, that "they really would not have loaned me the money if I could not pay it back". They TRUSTED. Their was a lot of societal trust that bankers were boring, calm, good stewards of money and the gatekeepers. What the average person did not know is that they gutted the mechanism, were no longer stewards but conmen fleecing their mark, sniggering all the way.

The finance/paper crowd broke the trust, gutted it, trashed it, betrayed it....and never realized just how much was built on that trust, their lives, livelihood depended on trust from allparties to maintain the basic structure and now the j6pii have begun to realize it. How do they fix it? they cant, not with what they are trying to do, all the bailouts, bonuses malarkey and foolishness to preserve bankers and wall st just drives the stake that much further in. Now the fallout from the death of trust. What happens to a nation of 300 + million when it is all against all, lies everywhere, the stronger and smarter have been given an unlimited hunting license on the less smart, less ruthless?

Tanta talked about this many times. Not in so many words, but it did base on this. I miss her. I wish I could tell her I am starting to understand what she was trying to get across.

Soooo which of those bars is the green shoot?

The longest one?

JP (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 8/6/2009 - 12:24 pm

And worse: It's being discussed because Dawg's dry humor was misread. Bad Dawg! Next time make the humor wetter!

Worse wars have been started because I was misunderstood but yes, absolutely. I will take more care in the future.

Re: What happens to a nation of 300 + million when it is all against all, lies everywhere, the stronger and smarter have been given an unlimited hunting license on the less smart, less ruthless?

I think the country was destroyed with the civil-rights movement and the white people being unable to come to term with this.

Your statement (concept) of "unlimited hunting license" is exactly why many whites started voting Republican, to get even with THOSE PEOPLE. And keep doing so, the: cut-off-my-nose-to-spite-my-face concept. As a result of this shift, the Republican party went from being predominately a minority "business/rich party" to the majority fascist/god party. The Democrats couldn't make-up for the lose of the peasants switching to the Republicans and simply shifted right. Both are now roughly the same ecomonically. But has Harry Truman (I think) said: "If a Democrat acts like a Republican, people will vote Republican every time".

i will have to think about your reply. My first reaction was nuh-uh but I will have to look. I grew up in New England but have lived in VA for 10 years now. It is not south south, more like the edge of the north so I am sure that what I see here may not be same all over. I have noticed on my visits home that there is more overt racism and friction than where I live. My theory on that is that for all the south's faults, and there are many, they have at least had to confront their past and try to work through. The north, especially new england, has got to sit back on their laurels and say, hey,we aint racist, we went to war to end slavery and won, now pat us on our back and move along please. They get the smug blanket to curl up with and get to ignore the festering going on. Perhaps I just self-select but where I am race relations is far more mellow than where I am from. So I dont know if that is the 'destructor'. I will have to get back to you on that.

The bigger gap I see is class rather than race. As long as we can be distracted with foolishness regarding color class snottiness and worse can continue without even an eyebrow raised. I see it personally at work when I am not a person making someones stay as pleasant as possible, but a minimum wage drone who is there to be a trash can for snotty venom. cuz, y'know, people like me are natures losers there to scrape their feet on otherwise I would be, y'know, like them.

Regarding Dem v Rep (hahaha i have a visual of the roosterteeth Red v Blue re-re-dubbed heeheehee) they are the same economically in outcome spend spend spend oink oink oink but come from very different perspecives on why and where to spend.

I guess a society where trust is dying leads to more layers of people above and below, more contempt, more rudeness.....dont know. babbling. trying to figure out what it is that is changing inside and what my previous attutudes and assumptions multiplied throughout the population will lead/has lead to.

I am a j6p economically, well even lower, but I had information and ability to grasp what is happening and I let that lead to a contempt that I shelled out just like those over me. I am starting to realize that without the people like me, like j6p going out doing the scut work, the hands-on work and trusting it will all fall apart.

So, as I am realizing these things, what responsibilities do I have? Do I continue to hunker down, do I become a sheepdog? Do I look for others to be sheepdogs and assisst them? Do small community tentacles outweigh the big wave coming?

OMFG -

7%

90+ days past due

SEVEN PERCENT -

We are so frigg'n doomed -

Re: The bigger gap I see is class rather than race

Yeah, me too. It's just way too easy to distract people. Politics has really just advertising, selling ideas and politicians like F-150's. It's works equally as well, and when the dumbasses can vote (and there are dumbasses in all the classes) it's very easy to sell these people.

Not sure what to do about. I'm 53 and don't have any kids. I'm just hoping the entire thing hangs-together for 30 more years (or so). If there ARE bad times ahead, I really don't see the country surviving as a "democracy" (assume what we have now is one).

I'm VERY cynical tho, and don't really care for people that much.

"texas learned its lesson in the s&l crisis. it's not like these rednecks haven't tried running these scams already."

Yeah but the other sand states were the same states in S&L. At least Texas has the capacity to learn from those errors.

There's two things that are misleading with this chart:

  1. It's just orange county data, not nationwide or even california. This should be pointed out in the blog post.
  2. The blue line includes the red line, if you subtract the red line from the blue one, the remaining curve is almost flat. So really the main thing going up is foreclosures in progress, which is possibly just due to bank workload. This is kinda noted in the update, but not very clearly.

Hendrik

I think that one of the reasons REOs are decreasing while foreclosures are increasing is that banks are getting better at short sales. More short sales are closing before the auction.

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