From prior thread: "Fair Economist, thanks for that intelligent and informative post (about the underclass in wealthy cities)"

CR, for us dummies, can you summarize the C-S tiering method, and why it might not be totally reliable?

"My feeling has been that house prices are probably close to the bottom in the lower priced bubble areas with heavy foreclosure activity (Lawler's "de-stickification"). Inventories are very low in many of these areas, and activity has been fairly high as first time buyers and investors buy distressed properties"

At 5% rates the decline could very well be over.

But at 6%-7% rates we'd have a way to go. This only works if they hold rates for a low for a long period of time (they state they will) and wage inflation asserts itself. Then rates can rise and prices will remain steady. Appreciation in any scenario will be, at best, muted.

Coalition For the Homeless - Not One Deserves It

"Five Years Later: The Failure of Mayor Bloomberg's Five-Year Homeless Plan
June 23rd marks the five-year anniversary of Mayor Bloomberg's five-year plan to reduce homelessness by two-thirds, and it is now clear that the plan has failed. The number of homeless families now is higher than when Mayor Bloomberg unveiled his plan, and there are more than 5,000 more homeless New Yorkers in municipal shelters compared to when the Mayor took office."

Thanks, CR. So the slicing into thirds is done based on the prices of recent sales. That sounds like what I recall. If so, then all the tiers shown in the chart for some regions are just for segments of the bottom tier of total housing inventory in that region.

For Orange County, I still see much less decrease for SFRs in decent areas than for condos in Santa Ana etc. The regular middle class home in OC has a long way to go.

Thanks, patientrenter.

I agree with you that serving these people efficiently is a good goal. The highest-density areas in the US are very pricey these days. Most of Europe addresses the urban poor with high-rise projects. They're reasonably cheap if people accept small spaces, and work pretty well there, because the poor are connected to the services and the job opportunities of a metropolis. Here, as we all know, similar projects were a catastrophic failure. It's a rough problem in the US - in the 70's, when they were concentrated in dense cities, the cities were hated. Now the cities are popular again and the urban poor have been squeezed into suburban-density areas of cities, which are the best compromise we have for affordable space + urban opportunity. The problem with these people is that in the course of the lives, they tend to lose access to cars at least for periods, and that cuts them off from most of the benefits of suburbia.

--"Responsible renters, tenants who pay their monthly rent on time, should not be the collateral damage of a relentless process that forces them from their homes with a 10-day notice of eviction. We must not permit innocent individuals, blameless families that have paid their monthly rental bills every month without any interruption whatsoever, to be evicted with virtually no notice. [NYS]Senator Klein’s legislation, S. 1363-C, terminates this unconscionable practice, providing households 90 days of breathing room before an eviction notice can be served on the resident of a foreclosed property,” added Senator Eric Adams (D-Brooklyn). --

cache:MuttkdtPimEJ:council.nyc.gov/d28/html/members/Press%20Releases/May%202009/Klein_White_Renter_Press_Release_5_7_09.doc eviction proceedings new york city 2009 rates - Google Search

Of course, the rent should decrease after foreclosure, but the bank can arbitrage the "dislocation costs" (moving on short notice, fear) on the tenant.

"As we head back to 3x annual income for a house, what to do with all the leaky balloons in the guise of woefully overvalued homes?"

Section 8 housing?

Comrade, Looks like your move up buyer just committed to a loss of a few hundred thousand dollars. Good negotiating! Moving up in a market like this, with more expensive homes generally more bubbly, is a terrible decision.

Fair Economist, just as some of your insights are driven by recent personal experience, some of my comments were driven by recent personal experiences I've had.

As I contemplate where I might live when I retire, I keep coming back to (attractive) small villages somewhat near regional centers and services. I can do that because I won't need to work for a living. As I look at some of the poorest people in my current (very expensive) location, I see that their economic contribution (if any) is very marginal, and can't possibly begin to cover the cost of living in such an expensive area, even in the wretched conditions they do live in. So society is paying, one way or another, a good amount of money for them to live in terrible conditions, without enabling them to contribute very much. This is exactly how my own retirement would look if I insisted in staying in one of the most expensive places o the planet. Of course, I choose not to do that. So why do we allow it to continue for all these other folks? It's terrible for them, and bad for us.

Your comment about these folks often making more than a marginal economic contribution makes me think again. I just don't know these folks well enough to understand the full breadth of their situations.

@groundhogday,

I don't disagree. His main motivator was his wife, who wanted a bigger house to accommodate their two kids. They were in a 2 bed, 1 bath house and moved up to 4 beds, 2.5 bath. It will be a life style improvement for them, if not a financial one.

THE WORST IS OVER(?)

My Way

Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound
Email this Story

Aug 1, 10:39 AM (ET)

By ADRIAN SAINZ, DAVID TWIDDY, DANIEL WAGNER, ALEX VEIGA

It was - note the past tense - the worst housing recession anyone but survivors of the Great Depression can remember.

From the frenzied peak of the real estate boom in 2005-2006 to the recession's trough earlier this year, home resales fell 38 percent and sales of new homes tumbled 76 percent. Construction of homes and apartments skidded 79 percent. And for the first time in more than four decades of record keeping, home prices posted consecutive annual declines.

A staggering $4 trillion in home equity was wiped out, and millions of Americans lost their homes through foreclosure.

Now take a deep breath and exhale. The worst is over.

"I did a lot of those jobs my self from picking fruit in the fields to washing dishes and working in a hospital laundry."

Yeah but you used to be able to pay rent and buy a car with those wages. Now they only do those things elsewhere, so workers come from there to do those jobs.

A quick glance at the 8:17 pm article fails to reveal the word "income".

Real or nominal.

I'm seeing the Miami Liz describes mirrored in Sarasota. No sales in the middle tier.

Maybe I'm mistaken in this, but I don't see stubbornness on asking prices so much as a mixture of confusion and second-half-recovery tinted glasses. There's a world of disinformation out there.

I haven't the faintest idea. My impression is the backlog is getting longer and longer.

I have anecdotes only. However, since the REO depts have made it incredibly difficult to buy, I don't see that foreclosing more houses faster would do anything for the banks except have the houses rot faster.

Remember the Palm Beach county judge with the 40k foreclosures?

In Dade they don't do it that way and the judges--some of them limit motion calendar, so it can take months to get on the foreclosure motion calendar. A baliff remarked that having a motion for summary judgment reset 6 times wasn't unusual.

Anyway times to finish foreclosures are steadily lengthening.

A foreclosure mill attorney told me that in Palm Beach, their firm is allocated 85 a week? month? by that judge and at that rate it would take them 15 years to get thru the backlog, assuming there were no more filed. And of course there will be.

"But if all illegal immigration were somehow halted, wouldn't the people who moved into the jobs done by illegals today benefit from higher wages (lower supply of labor) and from better living conditions (from a greater supply of cheap housing)?"

Of course. But the housing bubble made it VERY difficult for permanent residents/natural citizens, to do those jobs and maintain a non-3rd world standard of living.

"I expect Neo-Luddism to loom large, as technology loses it's luster amongst the hoi ploy."

And give up Twitter, MySpace, TiVo, and iPods? That is hard to imagine.

I don't think the banks are smart enough to collude.

"And give up Twitter, MySpace, TiVo, and iPods? That is hard to imagine."

Time-wasters extraordinaire, one and all...

Anecdote about how buying is such a difficult process.

Fannie mae sale. Price 44-45k. Ie, nothing. Young couple pays cash.
Normally in Fla, you expect a deed in return for your cash and the house keys.

But, nooooo, the Seller wants everything back first, will review things at
its leisure and then hand over the deed and keys. It doesn't seem to occur
to them that this will lower prices due to frustration and anxiety this causes.

Thanks Liz. That's why I say loan mod's and the rest are a bluff. They're trying to buy time and public approval with "Hope", but it's the banks that need to stop foreclosures. Anyone can do the math.

Could anyone imagine your standard renter being given such amazing protection as homeowners are? A renter would be out on their ass for not paying but a homeowner somehow has to be protected.

Renters are truely second class citizens.

p.s. Before anyone points out that renters get 90 days if the house they are renting is foreclosed on. They are still obligated to pay rent. It isn't like they are advantaged in the situation.

"it would take them 15 years to get thru the backlog, assuming there were no more filed."

Wow! Foreclosures their are limited by the ability of the system to process them and there is a 15 YEAR backlog? Who would BUY a house in that environment knowing what would happen to the value of your new home? That is not very

Honestly, I can't get very quantitative about that. I just believe that we are approaching "normal," slowly and from above so the near term trend is likely to be down. My perspective is that of a family looking for a place that they really want to live in, and in a position to patiently wait for a good opportunity during the next year or so.

Note - I've lived in my paid-off home for 37 years so I'm trying to imagine how I might look at things if I were in that situation.

Could anyone imagine your standard renter being given such amazing protection as homeowners are?

I tend to look at it as the government helping the mortgage more than the actual homeowner.

Hey, if you are a young couple buying in a non dangerous soso neighborhood
for 45k, you regard it as the chance of a lifetime. So what if it goes down 20% more?

Surely the thing will cash-flow if you don't want to live there.

I waste enough time here, don't need twitter.

Actually, it's not a waste, it's an 18 hour a day literary salon, and
sometimes it seems to me that it is what I was born for.

I expect Neo-Luddism to loom large, as technology loses it's luster amongst the hoi ploy.

Japan has seen the opposite. Younger people (who have been living through what's now changing from Lost Decade to Lost Generation) are choosing technowidgets and eschewing cars and houses. The Japanese car industry is very concerned.

"I've lived in my paid-off home for 37 years"

Ah, thanks! Suddenly, I do not feel so old.

Actually, it's not a waste [CR], it's an 18 hour a day literary salon, and
sometimes it seems to me that it is what I was born for.

It's a real delight to me as well, and very cheap. We all do stuff just because we enjoy it; I think the world would be better with more polite on-line salons and less TV.

In No. VA. for SFH above 600k I see prices are down around 20 -30% based on location. What I did notice is what they are listed for and what they sell for is 2 different prices. Another 40k is getting knocked off the selling price.

I have also noticed the banks are starting to slash prices of foreclosed. Slash = 100k less than comps. They are selling at that price.

Weichert seems to be handling a lot of bank owned houses here.

"p.s. Before anyone points out that renters get 90 days if the house they are renting is foreclosed on....

10 days in New York, pending reform legislation.

I have spent the summer working at a youth program for elementary kids that uses the spare rooms of a daycare center, so I am around a lot of 20-something college grads and minority young-grandmothers who staff the daycare. Great, interesting people but terrible consumers. Most shop at Goodwill or garage sales. All rent, nearly all use public transportation. Several have no tv, most have no cable and can't use a Tivo remote to save their life. Everyone has a cell phone and they are full of "technowidgets."

I lived much like this as a grad student but most of these folks can't see (and I don't see it either) how they are going to make a transition from the educated underclass to middle class splendor. And increasingly, they claim that they do not want to. If you want to reach them as consumers, the only chance is through their phone.

The graph for San Francisco must be for the bay area in general.

Because you will not find any house in San Francisco under $400,000. Or under $600k most likely.

And I can assure you the "low end" san francisco house ($600k-900k) has not come down in price at all.

There have been some modest single-digit percent reductions on the high end. ($2mm+)

"Either all Democrats (the subsegment of the population from which public radio producers are drawn) want higher home prices, or almost all of the American public wants higher home prices. I suspect it's the latter. Why is there such massive economic ignorance on the part of almost our entire population? Or am I and many other bloggers here totally out to lunch, and utter failures at understanding (housing) economics?"

I'm with you on that, as I sold my house 7 years ago, when I thought prices were absurd. But 67% of US Americans are homeowners; where the house is a substantial portion of their net worth. How they plan to extract that "wealth", when every boomer and his brother are trying to do the same thing, eludes me.

10 days in New York, pending reform legislation.

Federal law gives them 90 days now. So that is the minimum across the country.

In Los Angeles City is very generous to renters, the number of homes on the market marked as REO and tenant occupied is growing fast in that area.

Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 8:45 pm

Ah, thanks! Suddenly, I do not feel so old.

Wait a minute! How do you know he wasn't born in that house and his parents didn't pay it off. He might only be 37 years old

"most Americans own homes and want to be rich, and for many the only way they'll get rich is by their home getting expensive. So they wish for it, without realizing if all houses go up, the benefits for homeowners becomes marginal. They don't even think about the fact that insofar as they get wealthy that way, it impoverishes somebody else."

OK, Fair Economist and Blackhalo. But if we are right, then how come 99% of the public conversation treats higher home prices as good, and lower prices as bad? And I am not just talking about Joe on the street homeowner. On the radio today, there were Carl Case (of Case-Shiller) and many, many eminent economists and politicians and senior bureaucrats. And NOT ONE of them plainly advocated lower home prices. ALL of them sang the praises of a positive first or second derivative in home prices. So I am wondering, are we all economic morons here on this blog, or is there a serious deficiency in our senior economists and other public policy leaders?

The pressure's been on at the office,
And they've been looking for any excuse
To cut where they can, as part of the plan,
Their expenses to reduce.

My co-worker blew his head off today,
And in shock, we're all wondering why,
And some are getting all judgemental,
While some hang their heads and cry.

He happened to fall in their cross-hairs,
Through maybe something he said, or did,
But whatever it was, it just goes to show
How easily you can wind up dead.

Perhaps it wasn't even work related,
Maybe it was personal, it's hard to tell.
We'll probably never know for sure,
And perhaps it's just as well.

Because it's really none of our business
As to why his family's in pain,
Or if there's anything that can be done
To prevent this from happening again.

So, pray for his soul, my fellows,
And wish his poor family well,
Because the was things seem to be going,
We'll all be together in hell.

"Collectively, occupant homeowners and renters are too big to fail. They have to bluff at systemic collapse to exercise their leverage just like the big boys.
15 year backlog. Let's raise it to 30."

Very perceptive.

The 15 years was then, prolly it is 15.1 now.

Anyhow, obviously this backlong can't last. Something will
happen. Maybe the huge filing fee of 2009 bucks will be devoted
to hiring more judges. Maybe a hurricane will destroy large numbers
of homes.

Maybe the lenders will get tired of paying taxes after a few years and
the houses will be sold for failure to pay taxes.

maybe we will go mad max.

But it's not a

ALL of them sang the praises of a positive first or second derivative in home prices. So I am wondering, are we all economic morons here on this blog, or is there a serious deficiency in our senior economists and other public policy leaders?

Well, let me put it this way: Don't ask me to defend our senior economists and public policy leaders.

Both groups have substantial personal biases. Economists have generally predicted higher house prices; public policy leaders have pushed for higher prices in the past and have a big interest in the stability of the system. Both get a lot of money from the financial industry and the rentier class.

Somewhat more people benefit from rising prices than lose, since our society is about 60% homeowners. But, influence in our society comes from money, not numbers, and that 60% probably has something like 95% of the wealth. That's going to influence pundits too.

go to craigslist realestate, san francisco tab.

You simply cannot find a house for anything under $600k. Yeah, lots of condos and TICs, but no houses.

Well maybe a couple of wrecked REOs in bayview. But nothing habitable.

Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 8:54 pm

I'm with you on that, as I sold my house 7 years ago, when I thought prices were absurd. But 67% of US Americans are homeowners; where the house is a substantial portion of their net worth. How they plan to extract that "wealth", when every boomer and his brother are trying to do the same thing, eludes me.

Regrettably, the same applies to their/our 201k s

@ patientrenter (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 5:43 pm

Because the American Dream is a national ethos of iin which democratic ideals are perceived as a promise of prosperity.

However, since there will be no return to "normal' economy ( i.e. American from 1970 - 2005 ) after this deep recession then I highly suggest 98% of Americans start to re-calibrate their American Dream.

why isn't speeding up that process dramatically the focus of responsible legal and political leaders?

It is. We just don't have many leaders who are responsible.

Thank you, patientrenter.

p.s. - I just saw your post of 3:16 on the previous thread, and am in complete agreement with you.

"Kiss me where it's dirty"

So they drove to Long Beach

So they drove to Long Beach...and did what??

Fair Economist and Blackhalo, what you are saying is very depressing. If we are right that home prices were in an unsustainable bubble, and need to go down further in the most inflated areas, then the absence of strong public voices speaking to that is a black mark against the economics profession, especially.

If Bernanke, Shiller, Yellen, Krugman, and a couple of dozen other senior and famous economists were to speak clearly of the need for lower home prices, and their benefits, then I am sure people would actually get it, eventually and reluctantly. So the complete absence of this plain speaking is not some clever and realistic surrender to inevitable defeat: it is a cynical abdication of their primary responsibilities in favor of personal advancement.

I'd almost prefer that someone explained how I and others were actually all wrong about home prices. Tell me exactly why and how higher home prices forever are good for us all!

"LaywerLiz, if the biggest avoidable loss to society from an unwinding of the home price bubble is the deterioration of homes ..."

Why would you trash a home you plan to live in for 15 years. Your money goes to keep up the house and the bank can't do shit.

Do you think the judges will evict themselves and their staff?

I just was pulling data for Mondays post on REO/Short Sales vs normal sales for July, what I noticed was for both regions I follow (San Fernando Valley and Ventura County) sales volumes are down YoY for July. Last year at this time interest rates were ~6.25% and prices were higher. I think the REOs brought liquidity to those 2 markets. Non-REO sellers are either in 2 camps unable to deal or unwilling to deal. Therefore the gap between buyers and sellers cant be closed and we get stagnation.

The reason REOs get multiple offers is their willingness to listen to market and sell accordingly. This is a supply constrained market locally, demand is there it just has limited purchasing power.

bank Failure,

The comment about comments was a good comment.

Wait a minute. That was ONE anecdote, and I said it couldn't
last tho I don't know what will happen.

A potential client came to me 'cause his foreclosure atty was very
good at dragging stuff out, but now he wanted to fix up his house
(with what $$), so he wanted a mod. The tax assessor has it at
150 and he owes 2ce that much. People WILL NOT fix up houses
that they have the potential to lose.

Why speed up foreclosures? No more crime in Miami? There will be with mass foreclosure. No torts? No commercial cases? No custody battles? (The kids can wait 15 years) No competency hearings? No election cases in Florida? (no rush there) No takings? God forbid a Bill of Rights issue?

"Thanks, barfly. You and Pavel are a pleasure to read. Thanks, both."

Thank you, patientrenter.

A Message from the Future:

pavel.libsyn.com

I was watching Deutche Welle interview a German economist who looked like an Amish farmer. He said the European standard of living is going down and will stay down. Also that in this cycle the EU can't look to Germany to play the role of economic powerhouse to pull the EU out of this. Why? They make stuff that is used to make more stuff. And that has got the stuffing knocked out of it. Oh, and China will soon be number 1. Too bad America. Then Hans the Amish farmer grinned.

I had a guy walk into my apt once and set down on the couch. He was Vietnamese. I came home and there he was. We were both surprised.

Huff TV: Arianna Co-Hosts MSNBC's "Morning Meeting" With Dylan Ratigan (VIDEO)

"Fair Economist and Blackhalo, what you are saying is very depressing."

Barry putting the smack down to Ariana made me feel better.

There is nothing more dangerous than an ego-wounded commenter.....

And nothing more tedious than an ego-burdened commenter. This primate is too old to play hump the gammas.

The comment about comments was a good comment.

No comment.

Comrade Coinz,

You commenting "No comment" about my comment about Bankfailures comment is obviously a comment. No comment on this comment is required.

@nova,

No, it really was just a "no comment". Sometimes a cigar...

"I was watching Deutche Welle interview a German economist who looked like an Amish farmer. He said the European standard of living is going down and will stay down. Also that in this cycle the EU can't look to Germany to play the role of economic powerhouse to pull the EU out of this. Why? They make stuff that is used to make more stuff. And that has got the stuffing knocked out of it. Oh, and China will soon be number 1. Too bad America. Then Hans the Amish farmer grinned."

Lots of meat in this one. I have noticed a surprisingly high level of schadenfreude amongst Germans at American stumbles. It's partly shared by other Europeans, especially on the Left, but Germans appear to have it bad. I've sometimes wondered where the potential resentment at America for defeating Germany in WW2 would show up. It can't be expressed directly, because no one in Germany now can respectably (or legally) support their side of that war. I wonder if we see it indirectly in things like that "Amish farmer" economist enjoying the prospect of China overtaking America, even at the expense of overtaking Germany first.

As for European standards of living, I've heard for 20 or more years about how the European economic model was condemned to wither way or even collapse. Meanwhile, I visit my family living in lots of different places there, and I temporarily enjoy much higher living standards than in my home here in the US. Something doesn't add up. I just don't see them being in much trouble over there in Europe when it comes to real living standards.

bank failure,

A Commentor Alliance is often a network of sock puppets dancing a carefully choreographed comment can-can.

Hmmm, commenters have commented on job losses, including their own,
but I don't recall anyone saying they were actually in foreclosure, tho several
said they would be if they lost their jobs.

thanks, my buzz from dinner has faded.

We've veered enough from the topic of the post that I'm willing to revisit the topic of the first post of the day, FDIC Bank Failure Update .

I went to the next-to-last link in CR's post to FDIC data and found two interesting things:

1) In the first 9 months of 2008, currently listed losses on bank closings exceed by a fairly large amount the amount estimated at the time of closing. Notably, Indymac estimated at "$4-8B" is now $10.7B; ANB Financial estimated at $214M is now $819M and The Columbian Bank and Trust, estimated at $60M is now $232M.
For bank closures during the last three months of 2008, initial estimates either were much better or the actual cost hasn't been updated.
.
2)The FDIC quit listing the Estimated Loss on a bank closing as of 12/31/2008. There are none listed for any of the banks closed in 2009.

Nova,

Are there really people here so craven and with so much free time as to build a fiefdom of interlocking sock puppet personalities?

Seems their true personality would leak through eventually.

patientrenter,

I hope to retire and spend at least 3 months out of each year in Europe. I would become an expat in a heartbeat if I had the money.

The German desire to see us taken down a peg? Oh yes. I don't see as being as much about the war. Rather we were the bright shining hope and turned out to have feet of clay. I also believe they think we are spoiled an ignorant children who can use a good time out .

Why bother? I don't know. I have an idea in one case. Is it done. I am sure of it. I see itt in writing styles.

nytol

bsr
i agree with you americans do not want to work( they want to paid) but the horrible thing is that it isnt only young,its middle aged, male and female. they just cant seem to get the idea of "a days work for a days pay.
face it few americans would do the jobs aliens (ilegal and legal) do every day.we have no work ethic. maybe it was just a myth. dont know. and it drives the few that do work totally crazy. im glad that i am retired. i would be killing people every day.

I should have said seemingly ok, yogster.

I have a suspicion that there will be a lot of title problems
in a few years. Some title underwriters are letting the
foreclosure mills write their own title insurance, thus not
letting an independant eye look at what they did.

I know for a fact that my former re broker buddy had a 3rd
mtg on her daughter's property (was supposed to be a 2nd,
don't ask), and the property has been in foreclosure 2 years
or so now, and neither the 2nd or 3rd has been joined and
served. The daughter lived free for quite a while and then
moved out 'cause she didn't want to live there any more. CERTAINLY
NOT because she had been foreclosed.

No defenses filed, could & should have been done a year ago.

I told my friend to wait & see when and if the place ever does
get foreclosured and sold and then threaten foreclosure on
the new buyer. Could get a few thou back from the new title
insurance.

Even if millions of foreclosures were sped through the system, how does that make the banks solvent? Now you have a fire sale of assets, depressing price. Chinese overlords? Rent strike.

Not having a job or money will cause some nonworkers to want to actually work.

Yes, there is an estimate is in the initial press release. But the FDIC publishes a spreadsheet version (accessed via the link in CR's post) that presumably includes updates since the 2008 numbers that I reported compare the loss that is currently estimated against the estimated loss in the initial press release.

The press releases still have that initial estimate, but the FDIC isn't reporting even that (they have "N/A" in tha cell) in the spreadsheet version, nor obviously updating them.

"May be we can go the Swiss route then? "...........yeah right....that seems to be the "direction of travel" in Afghanistan. It's turning into another Viet Nam.

I spent the morning with a VietNam POW - I asked him what he thinks of our government. - it's not very pretty.

There is something, not quite right about this. Revolution being a Nike ad demonstrates the capitulation of the boomers to the establishment. Now they want their houses to be worth enough to pay for retirement.

YouTube - Nike Beatles Revolution Ad

You say you want a revolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
You tell me that it's evolution
Well, you know
We all want to change the world
But when you talk about destruction
Don't you know that you can count me out
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right

You say you got a real solution
Well, you know
We'd all love to see the plan
You ask me for a contribution
Well, you know
We're doing what we can
But when you want money
for people with minds that hate
All I can tell is brother you have to wait
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
Ah

ah, ah, ah, ah, ah...

You say you'll change the constitution
Well, you know
We all want to change your head
You tell me it's the institution
Well, you know
You better free you mind instead
But if you go carrying pictures of chairman Mao
You ain't going to make it with anyone anyhow
Don't you know it's gonna be all right
all right, all right
all right, all right, all right
all right, all right, all right

I would think the more hands the mortgage passes through the more chances for trouble. GN

"If America is going down a few notches, then we would not need such a large military presence/budget, would we? There would be so much less to safeguard? May be we can go the Swiss route then?"

I hope not. Russia slipping Iran the bomb, to get Israel to attack, boosting oil prices, concerns me.

This seems to have just been rolled off one of your new hybridized trucks, which is powered by total bullshit, versus truck fueled, just by dog shit!

Speaking of which, anyone know of any consumer grade methane digesters? No pig or fart jokes please.

"Maybe I could post under liz'srightbrain and liz'sleftbrain.

I'd still want the credit."

Claiming TWO brains now? After reading some of your conversations with a trolling Lucifer, I might argue that is a bit generous...

Concur with patientrenter re work ethic.

If that's what the kids are going to be faced with, then they'll do it regardless of whether they want to or not. Local Blockbuster is going out of business and has hired down/out day laborers to hold signs for the "GOOB" Sale. Has led to some discussions with the kids re the value of such a job and whether they find it worthwhile...they originally thought that would be cool but had short discussion re pay vs costs of living and that seemed to have an impact.

Oh, and China will soon be number 1. Too bad America.

• Thanks, Wal-Mart shoppers! Your money truly goes a long way when you shop at Wal-Mart!

"Even if millions of foreclosures were sped through the system, how does that make the banks solvent? Now you have a fire sale of assets, depressing price. Chinese overlords? Rent strike."

If a million homes are foreclosed on, and sold and rented out promptly, there is minimal disruption in the immediate and ultimate supply of available housing, regardless of how low the post-foreclosure prices go, or which banks go belly-up. But if the foreclosures drag on, and 250,000 of those homes deteriorate, there is a real loss in the supply of homes, permanent or temporary. Setting aside all the zero-sum games of who gets to take a paper loss, it is clear that the broad real economic interest is served by rapid foreclosures designed to minimize property damage.

Just got back from 3 weeks in Israel. No talk of Iran. Preoccupied with water levels. Of course the US possibly leaving a weak Iraq gives Iran ideas. Don't think Israel would take any action without Obama's green light.

Israel - 8.4% UE rate....exports down 30%, but apparently bouncing back....perhaps asian stimulus the last two months? (aint from the US) Shekel back to appreciating since march-april. they are doing QE as well, but, they are thinking to pull back, even at .5% int rate. But they cant, with inflation really high, they raise rates, shekel rises, exports dinged again. Quite a pickle for them. And no green shoots...industrial production still stinkin it up. 6% of gdp budget deficit.. Like a mini US.

Yet another secret Russian website:

The vacancy rate for U.S. apartments hit a 22-year high in the second quarter as rising unemployment reduced demand during what is usually the peak leasing season.

Rents fell the fastest in markets that have shed white-collar jobs, such as New York and San Jose, Calif., and in markets where many foreclosed homes and condominiums have been turned into rental property, including Las Vegas and Orange County, Calif.

Vacancy levels nationally rose to 7.5% in the April-to-June period, up from 6.1% a year earlier, according to Reis Inc., a New York real-estate research firm. Of the 79 markets tracked by Reis, 45 showed an increase in vacancies.

So Doc, any clue on when the apt rental market might bottom?

I've held off buying rental property for several years since things were looking weird. Any idea as to when it might make more sense to pull the trigger?

"- Thanks, Wal-Mart shoppers!"

Wal*Mart surely was very aggressive with their vendors in getting them to reduce costs. So much that they had limited choices with regard to production locations. Blaming it on the shoppers seems a wee bit out of place.

"And while I'm at it, my spouse and I are wondering WTF the cash/clunkers program also pertains to foreign companies like Toyota?"

Why not just limit it to the Government Motors like GM and Chrysler. Fuck those capitalist Ford dealers... OR we might like to have Japan hang on to those T-Bills a tad longer...

racial try this
consumer grade methane digesters - Google Search

Fair - were you being funny leaving out links? I hear you though...Im actually moving to SF this week. Dont own a house, maybe never will, despite the constant stupid discussions I must have with the brainwashed masses. They didnt get it before the bubble, they sure dont get rent vs buy now. Pretty hopeless. Id rather hang out here, or with the fairer sex , play my guitar, cook. Im thinking going off grid is the eventual inevitability.

--rich, they were cooking with Gas

You know, I actually have that Ween CD. Some time ago, I took a poll of all my CDs, and there was unanimous agreement Ween 12 Golden Hits was the worst.

"This conversation of livable wages by domestic employers does percolate through things.
Took some teens to a national conference in NOLA the other week and there were multiple displays/venues for economic/social justice. Six years ago, I thought that well-meaning but meaningless. This time, I nodded in agreement."

I haven't really worked out a coherent reaction to this notion of restriction of trade/migration versus protecting the home jobs / people / territory. I think that more open trading with people in other countries is inevitable, and has more good to offer than bad. So on the globalization debate, my reaction is to get on with the adaptation (but compete as a nation for jobs you want to keep).

But I draw a line at free migration across borders. As someone mentioned earlier, it feels like having my front door forced open, and having to accept whoever walks through. It's in human nature to have a territory over which you can exercise more control, and live the way you want, with whoever you want. We express that on a family scale with homes with clear boundaries and near-absolute homeowner rights to refuse entry. Immigration rules are our (looser) way to express that on a national scale. Completely open borders (or unlimited tolerance for illegal immigration) strikes me as unnatural and unsustainable. It just goes against our human territorial grain, and does some serious damage to native people at the bottom of our economic ladder.

Anyway, debates on issues like this can get out of hand, and I don't want to generate more heat than light, so I'll probably just leave this as my last comment on this issue for a while.

"IMO it's healthy. I have similar inclinations; I own a house and car but they're not important to me. I'd have cheerfully dropped both to live in San Francisco or New York if my life had worked out that way. Music, science, blogging, sex - those are the things I love."

Hear, hear! Especially Music!

The toxic derivatives are still toxic, and the banks still have them tucked away, or pledged to the FED. CA foreclosure moratorium my ass. Hear any complaint from a bank? They're praying people are dumb enough to overpay the true rent.

rich, Yu can add

SLW
CEF
\NORONT
OLN
GDX
GLD
UNG

+2 yer werst records list as well.

do the CD's actually speak to you when voting a poll?,

Fair E,

That was a great find!

""I don't think my parents' way of life is for me," he said in a telephone interview. "I still struggle between the traditional notion of how men should be and how I am."'

Good night, folks.

you must go back to how Walmart evolved....a very finely tuned logistical model at first, then a massive buying spree, helping force discounts. They needed smarts first, but eventually, the monster takes over.

Yes, but you missed the part (emphasized in "The High Cost of Low Price") where Wal-Mart starting taking over whole rock-bottom wage sweatshops in China, polluting U.S. rivers and streams with their parking lots full of fertilizer, and corrupting local political processes to get zoning, free land and tax breaks. Without those things, Wal-Mart would not have become such a great retailer.

Real Declines in GDP

Is this F'ing Case-Shiller index sponsored by Toll Brothers? Are these old fools still in academia, and if so, who helps grease the wheels (baby)? Any new index is as worthwhile as litter in a Kitty Litter Box.

"-that's your answer? So it's the American workers fault they can't compete, what with all the unions and pollution restrictions, and all?"

Well, I think part of it was that for most vendors it was an all or nothing deal. Most of them were union shops. And I'll wager they went to the unions and said we will give you China wages + shipping costs + interest rate for relocation costs + cost for international expenses + 5% cause we live and work in the USA. And that came out to 1/2 to 1/3rd of what the union workers were getting, but I bet above minimum wage. And the union said no, as dues would surely fall off as a result.

Wal-Mart is a catalyst or accelerant, an agent for the simple economic forces driving trade. I wouldn't get too excited about attributing the march of globalization to one company. Specialization and trade, within national borders or across them, is an ancient practice. Any one company will have only a small impact on it.

I wouldn't get too excited about attributing the march of globalization to one company.

• I just use them as the most promenent 'poster child', and perhaps the one single company that has done the most damage to our internal workforce. And as much as I respect your opinion, I don't think their impact has been small. I trust you checked out my link, above?

Patientrenter, How could China's path have been the same, without the world's biggest economy buying every piece of crap they could produce, with our help with relocated factories and expertise, to boot ? We made them what they are today, only to diminish ourselves.

I guess I'm just one of those diehard 'Buy American" guys, and today that sentiment seems to be considered un-American. If you can't compete globally, it seems, you have no right to a job. Well, we've seen where that got us.

"I am finding it hard to imagine that maybe the biggest global economic change since WW2 would not have happened but for one US retailer."

.

Absolutely. All WM did was sink the margins of JCP, Sears, K, etc.

Asian mercantilism and US debt creation are the idiot twins here.

oh, and China sunk the margins that had been enjoyed for importable items ex-Taiwan, Japan, Korea, etc. Mfg in the US had been sinking long before WM.

...and the unions treated wages like NAR treats housing prices. "It only goes up."

• I'm going to take exception to this statement, too. Do you believe that labor deserves a just share of the profits of their labor, or not? Take your time.

"Do you believe that labor deserves a just share of the profits of their labor, or not?"

Sure, as long as it is based on what the market for labor will bear. Profits at Microsoft are at monopoly levels. At Sun they are not. That does not, to me mean that an equivalently qualified and talented software developer should make more at MSFT than Sun. Unions over the years have used their ability to extract wages, not in proportion to what the market will bear, but what the individual company can. This effect precluded the unionized auto manufactures to be unable to adjust labor expenses to market levels outside of BK. So, GM and Chrysler lose, and Toyota and Honda win.

"Why don't you just spit it out?"

Unions in my opinion, at one time and in some instances serve(d) very valuable purpose in addressing the inequities between labor and management. However, currently, in most cases, they are a fatal parasite on both management, labor, and the USA in general.