1930's social movement cause: Dust Bowl

2000's social movement cause: Bust Bowl

JD on top of the game today

Talked to my octogenarian mom this morning, and my brother is still looking for work, after being laid-off in February from his banking job he'd had for about 10 years...

He's got a fairly extensive safety net to catch his fall, but much of America is dysfunctional, with no plan B.

What becomes of them?

When they fall off the UE then the options are. Crime, Black market, substandard job, walk from debt obligations, welfare, abandon families. The recovery is Banksters and politicians making money! No recovery for you!

This will be the first time since the Great Depression that unemployment could generate a vicious circle. In all previous post-war recessions the recession was over before unemployment benefits really started to run out. Will be interesting - uncharted territory ...

"He's got a fairly extensive safety net to catch his fall, but much of America is dysfunctional, with no plan B.
What becomes of them? "

JD Has he tried creating an internet startup? Is his safety net mostly in cash or in benefits from his old job?

Fair Economist:

We have been in "uncharted territory" for a while now with the debt levels as high as they are.

Not monetized StimPack 3 coming your way this fall. Stay tuned

Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 4:09 pm

What do you propose they are spraying? Besides water?

Endocrine disruptors? /

Effect Dem.

Younger people have more student debt, CC debt, less access to higher education than the generations before them and now make less money than previous generations in real terms.

I don't see them creating households or buying homes in a sustainable way now or in the future. Either home prices must come way down or incomes must go higher.

Wife looked at me this AM and asked about the big bold headline in the morning rag: "Economy Leveling Off". How can that be when so many are going out of work? Article stated that economists were "scared" that people would continue to tighten the spending so that the 70% consumer portion would not contribute.

FE's right. The UE benefits will run out before the economy recovers and this is going to continue to mount.

So I don't really see how spending is going to recover. Ongoing losses - even at non-September '08 rates - will not be recovered and the UE will continue to grow. And I expect that the foreclosures will continue to mount.

I don't see any more stimpacks coming. Everybody agrees it would be politically infeasible. Healthcare reform would be a nice stimpack, but even if it gets passed it doesn't take effect until 2013.

Fair economist

All that money will be spent now anticipating repayment in the future...

How can higher education get you a better job when we now have over qualified looking for just about any kind of job?

Tim-

Don't worry incomes will be higher after they crash the living shit out of the dollar.

Which is worse

That would sen house prices skyrocketing. Home prices and incomes move parallel to each other under that sceanrio

"JD Has he tried creating an internet startup? Is his safety net mostly in cash or in benefits from his old job?"

He doesn't have a pot to piss in, but he's got family and friends that will take him in, unconditionally...

The cause of homelessness was certainly not agreed upon, only the duty of the City.

To frame it like that misses the point. You are assuming that the default human condition is to have a home. If we were consistent and defined these people by all the things they don't have it would be a long list. We are really talking about people who have no functional families or no functional friends. (and are too proud to beg their way onto any of the 9 million spare bedrooms, basements, attics, garages, porches, camps, vacation homes, etc. in America.

Has anyone told him the building trades are dead?

That being said, it's prolly a lot better than a degree in English (appologies to Tanta's spirit). Repairs will be needed as long as there is electricity.

If you have a large pool of unemployed it is very unlikely that wages will follow inflation. Wages will stay down until the next wiz bang business fad comes about.

Median duration of unemployment is 18 weeks and average is 25 weeks (see here).
The claim that 29% of all unemployed have been out of work for 26 weeks (6 months) looks reasonable

I'm not trying to frame the issue. I'm talking about an event in political history. The law would never have passed without the support of the wealthy interests. Low-wage earners certainly resent others getting a hand out, but they also are on the front lines of crime.

Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 4:32 pm

If you have a large pool of unemployed it is very unlikely that wages will follow inflation. Wages will stay down until the next wiz bang business fad comes about.

What, joining a militia?

Hate to bring this up again, but as more people become unemployed, and as more people deplete their current unemployment benefits, foreclosures will increase at a rapid rate and the jobless recovery, coupled to the screaming stock market, will de-couple. However, it is possible that the government will extend the fraud-filled fun days of The Bush Homeownership Society and let the good times role (again) -- which will result in the same mess that has us where we are today, but the hole will be wider and deeper.

A foreclosure filing every 13 seconds
A foreclosure filing every 13 seconds - Boston Real Estate - Boston.com
That comes atop a new report by the Mortgage Bankers Association that a stunning 12 percent of all mortgages are now delinquent.
households."

Happiness makes up in height for what it lacks in length.
Robert Frost
US poet (1874 - 1963)

Fair Economist (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 4:19 pm replyIgnore userI don't see any more stimpacks coming. Everybody agrees it would be politically infeasible. Healthcare reform would be a nice stimpack, but even if it gets passed it doesn't take effect until 2013.

What part of Obama's Healthcare reform would be a nice stimulus and for who? Insurance companies sure but not the citizens.

BYZ,

Nope, just understand business and have been though enough down cycles to that this will happen.

30 billion in banksta bonus money divided by 1.5 million without UE insurance equals uh 20,000 dofllars for each unemployed

Study: Bank Bonuses Far Exceeded Profits - CBS News

whats the problem

this is the price for excellence in our competitive system

these 1.5 million workers are no doubt the lazy rabble of our society

the real producers

the bankstas and their lieutenants of the bailed out "banks"

they are going to split 30 billion in bonuses, that they deserve for their

innovation and excellence

oh yes and lets not forget that justification for everything

liquidity...yes hft and the casino provide liquidity

so lets see

Congressman Stearns: Mr. Paulson, How do you have any credibility?

YouTube -

"Wages will stay down until the next wiz bang business fad comes about. "

Or the revolution. Look at a chart of GS over the past 8 months. They are prospering, perhaps as a result, of the pervasive misery. A Banka's gotta move or die, like a shark. Chum for GS analysts with bonuses & the blood of the downtrodden.

Anyone read the story in the Chronicle of Higher Ed about how colleges are facing a shortage of skilled labor? Electricians, physical plant administrators, etc. Young people will not take these jobs, and the old hands (the ones who "know where the bodies are buried" or rather the pipes and electrical lines) are retiring with no one to pass their institutional knowledge on to of these often quirkily laid out old campuses.

It's not simply a matter of hiring more immigrant grunt labor. You need non-transient skilled workers who can grow and mature in the field and take up these mantles.

But the trend on college campuses is to pay these people less and give more money to the needy students (the ones who justify the existence of the "community engagement VPs" and the "wellness coordinators" and other middle management suckups.) The staff members, particularly the non unionized ones, particularly the ones over age 50, are the ones who are getting the sack.

Kind of hard to hold court at college when it's physically falling apart. Don't even get me started on how a lot of these old buildings ARE falling apart.

I'm really not trying to be cruel but does anyone note that there is simply not enough desperation in the people in the NYT story.

One was sad she couldn't buy her son a laptop for college, another was worried because they couldnt send there kids to baseball or summer camp.

Those are all significant luxuries considering people are reaching the end of unemployment and not finding a job. These people really have come to terms with their reality yet.

I really don't understand the argument for extending unemployment benefits again, If you reach the end of the extended benefits you really need to be trying something else other than sending out more resumes. Working skill sets (I would support funding for this and more UE benefits for those working on their skills) or looking in other parts of the nation for work. Life has fundamentally changed for many of these people and the sooner they deal with that reality the better. More UE benefits won't help them along that road, especially if they are at the end of their benefits and looking to buy computers and send kids to camps, That is recognizing the problems you face.

Has anyone told him the building trades are dead?

They're not quite dead if you are willing to compete on price with the illegals. I know a state university that saved a bundle having illegals rewire the classrooms at night, when the building inspectors were sleeping. No blueprints/schematics were used or kept, no building codes were followed. I know a Department of Homeland Security facility that built a huge complex with illegal tradesmen. The illegals couldn't pass the security clearances to get through the front gate, so the perimeter fence was moved to put the complex outside the facility until it was completed, then the fence was rearranged to include the complex, again.

the history that many on the far right have forgotten

is that FDR leaned left to keep the country from going ussr

had TPTB during the GD played it down the middle or to the right we would have possibly seen revolution in our country...not good

so these emeffers who think they are so special and deserve the bonuses better think long and hard about the titanic

drowning doesnt distinguish between steerage versus staterooms

Wake up peeps:

Cannibalism : Our society is heading into a new exciting Dark Age:
Cannibalization - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A second common case of cannibalization is when companies, particularly retail companies, open outlets too close to each other. Much of the market for the new outlet could have come from the old outlet. The potential for cannibalization is often discussed when considering companies with many outlets in an area, such as Starbucks or McDonald's.

We are in the process of eating our young.....

mock & broward

Good observations.

there is simply not enough desperation in the people in the NYT story.

Yes, clearly it's not an issue of limited production and consumption.

If you make people desperate enough, they'll flood other marketplaces, drive down everyone else's wages and exacerbate the problem. Exactly what is happening with China and India at a macro level.

Knee-jerk "righteous justice" arguments aren't going to fix jack-shit.
Yeah, let's just evict 15 million people behind on their payments.
That will fix everything really fast.

Yep, every night I pray that our Great Black Hope wakes up and realizes that he must save his dwindling tax receipts and ability to borrow to feed the hungry and warm the cold.

I have a bet with my daughter that the riots start by August 31st. As on everything economic/financial, I am probably early, again.

We will have the first of many painful, ugly winters this year, folks.

Me, I think the fireworks begin as soon as the Chinese quit buying our T-paper, and that may have started last week:
Bond Worry: Will China Keep Buying? - WSJ.com

'Bankers, the other white meat.'

broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 4:47 pm

Work is finite.
Libertarian knee-jerking and "by your bootstraps" arguments won't change that.

That's right, and as the global economy expands, the economies of productive scale of commoditized consumer goods will grow ever-steeper, requiring ever-smaller labor inputs per output unit.

People need to get past the idea that everyone should have or needs a job -- particularly the "I worked my ass off so everyone who doesn't work as hard as me is stealing" crowd. It's obviously anxiety talking, but it's still pointlessly blaming the victim.

Dealing with the legions of the perpetually unemployed is the challenge of the new century.

Fair point, but the people they talk to were still real and representative of some class of people.

Fair point also.

We're not headed into a Depression, we're headed into normalcy. A normalcy that did not exist in this country for the last ten years, or more. It is going to take a long time to shake this out psychologically. But in the end, they will. No one remembers the Roaring 20s these days except as a quaint period with funny dances and hairstyles.

"He doesn't have a pot to piss in, but he's got family and friends that will take him in, unconditionally..."

Thank God for that. It's not only the back-up that's important, it's the love it represents. Families are the strongholds of love, and good friends are people who learned to love somewhere.

Do I have this right? Unemployment is increasing, benefits are running out, The Swine Flu is a run away freight train headed this away, stocks are going up and up, banks are failing at a faster rate, foreclosures are ramping up, there may be a jobless recovery and Obama is going to stimulate the economy by traing a few thousand people .....to do what, invest in a stock bubble?

CR, can I have a balloon icon/smiley? PLEASE??

Make that a red popping balloon with a green arrow inside of it...

Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 4:54 pm

"I have a bet with my daughter that the riots start by August 31st. As on everything economic/financial, I am probably early, again."

How does that happen in an age of warrantless wiretapping?

Pa. state employees vent anger over losing pay

The Associated Press

HARRISBURG, Pa. - A committee charged with breaking the Pennsylvania state budget stalemate is to meet for the first time Wednesday.

Friday is supposed to be payday. But 33,000 employees who received a partial paycheck on July 17 will receive nothing, unless Rendell makes good on a pledge to find a way to speed money to make payroll.

Said the night wind to the little lamb:
Do you see what I see?

"Yeah, let's just evict 15 million people behind on their payments.
That will fix everything really fast."

It won't happen. Nobody is looking for that kind of trouble.

OT:

Jonathan Alter: Our Health Care System Is Just

It's sarcastic, just in case you don't get it.

"Said the night wind to the little lamb:
Do you see what I see?"

Striking lines (No pun intended). Where do they come from?

Pavel: It's from the Christmas carol, Do You Hear What I Hear, made famous by Bing Crosby and others.

Do You Hear What I Hear? - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Do You Hear What I Hear?" is a Christmas song written in October 1962 with lyrics by Noël Regney and music by Gloria Shayne Baker.[1] The pair was married at the time, and wrote it as a plea for peace during the Cuban Missile Crisis.[2] It has sold tens of millions of copies and has been covered by hundreds of different artists.[2]

How can higher education get you a better job when we now have over qualified looking for just about any kind of job?
Farming is the future of jobs--- The best will be looking at the rear ends of draft animals.

This is just a matter of scale, yah know, the economy, the problems, the attempts to correct things. The belief that old logic and theory is somehow connected to future solutions and that we can have hope because Bernanke is going to use the playbook from 1930...

"However, it was Bing Crosby who made the song a worldwide smash hit when he recorded his own version of the recording of "Do You Hear What I Hear?" in 1963.[1] Crosby recorded the carol for Capitol Records on November 22, 1963"

Good Lord! Look at the date.

"How long can one justify unemployment when who knows how many jobs are performed by illegals? Perhaps this is when many Americans realize that perhaps they really are not so special."

There you have it. Americans are special! All the BS for decades is now going to blow up!

Yep, that is exactly how I see things starting up, Byzantine: threat of cessation of transfer payments -- e.g., welfare and food stamps -- and government jobs will bring the underclass and government white collar workers to the brink.

It only takes one idiot in a crowd to throw a stone to set off the violent cascade.

I know, I know, there are no idiots with violent tendencies in the underclass or in government white collar jobs.

Oh, wait; 'going Postal' has happened before.

Nevermind.

Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 4:32 pm

If you have a large pool of unemployed it is very unlikely that wages will follow inflation. Wages will stay down until the next wiz bang business fad comes about.

How will folks pay for the next wiz bang business fad?

"How long can one justify unemployment when who knows how many jobs are performed by illegals? Perhaps this is when many Americans realize that perhaps they really are not so special."

I am not so sure illegals are anything but a symptom of the problem. Wage disparity between the USA and ROW and a too strong dollar, as a result of the Dollar as a reserve currency, and China's fiscal policies, seem more likely to me.

One last request CR,

Can I (also) have a bike icon/smiley and a walking/hiking icon?? On that note, gotta ride...

kidbuck (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 5:02 pm

That's a beautiful, rich, life for all concerned. For millions of years this was a lot to have.

Except that personal charity is awful as a social safety net. It WAS "a lot to have". How the hell does that recommend it as a cultural institution?

When charity is voluntary and personal it makes our characters different, both the giver and the receiver, from when it is extracted forcefully through taxes.

Predicating social welfare on the availability of private charity is the social equivalent of predicating your dinner on what you find laying on the ground on any given day.

Captain Swing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It seems like there is more "work" now than in 1950. Where did it come from?

Social complexity.

Which, according to Joseph Tainter anyway, is not infinitely sustainable.

As for jobs, recently read a story in the local paper about how this year's crop of college grads is turning their noses up at job offers that aren't just so. They're opting to move back in with Mom and Dad until the right offer comes along. After all -- they're worth it.

adorn-, when things get terribly expensive -- i.e., imported oil -- clever humans and especially clever Americans find good substitutes.

Always has happened, always will happen. Neat instrument that the good Lord gave us, our brains.

Have a good afternoon, folks. I'm pulling a John Kerry, and am taking the family sailing (no Spandex for me, though; his figure better supports such than mine).

The illegals couldn't pass the security clearances to get through the front gate, so the perimeter fence was moved to put the complex outside the facility until it was completed, then the fence was rearranged to include the complex, again.

Surprised at that. How do they know that some of those workers weren't foreign government plants?

Buffet and Gates won't give any money to the government. Buffet even cries about him not paying enough taxes but he doesn't donate any. Kind of two faced to me.

mal (profile) wrote 1:54

We're not headed into a Depression, we're headed into normalcy. A normalcy that did not exist in this country for the last ten years, or more. It is going to take a long time to shake this out psychologically.

respectfully disagree

their are many versions of normalcy

we are possibly heading towards is the normalcy better known to the second and the third world poor

keep in mind most of the worlds population lives off of about 3 dollars per day!!

labor has no bargaining power and there are no tariffs to speak of and trade knows no boundaries ...arbitrage that

(americans have a long way to fall) i hope it doesnt come to that

"Except that personal charity is awful as a social safety net."

Only if you look at it as a social safety net. I don't think many of us would deny the need for social welfare. But it ought to be a back-up, and would be if there were no social disintegration.

I also believe that social welfare should provide enough for a dignified life, not just a bare existence. Of course, it should be available only to those who really need it.

So, Buffet complains that the government does not tax him enough, and bequeaths his entire estate to the BMG fund, and you call him two faced because he did not give it to the retards in government?

I think he might argue that the gov is free to take it, as long as others of the super rich must give in the same measure.

"Sales have fallen considerably and NTS have jumped a lot. It looks like BofA was bowing to political pressure holding off sales but the water continues to build behind the dam."

1. Unemployment benefits will be extended further.
2. Hidden inventory is building up pressure. But that pressure can be released in one of two ways - more supply and lower prices, or more subsidies to restrict supply/increase demand to maintain high prices. It's pretty obvious which of those alternatives our leaders will choose, "to save the economy*".

*Economy, euphemism for my ass / my personal free lunch retirement fund / my house.

"The WSJ had an article on challenges in the dairy business. "

Seven days a week. Get up with the cows, and probably before the rooster. I knew someone who did it for a while. He was immensely relieved when he didn't have to do it any more.

"religious organizations, who couldn't meet the burden" [supported the shelter law]

Even with their giant tax break, the homeless problem overwhelmed them. Congregants do not like to step over people sleeping on the steps of the sanctuary.

" Lobbyist Ben Dover (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 2:14 pm

* reply
* Ignore user

Buffet and Gates won't give any money to the government. Buffet even cries about him not paying enough taxes but he doesn't donate any. Kind of two faced to me."

I don't think so. He's just complaining that the rules of taxation are wrong, and he'd prefer we all went along with another set of rules.

I happen to agree with Mr. Buffet. We don't want to evolve this country into an aristocracy wherein 10 families own everything.

I also hate FSA's, 401k's, etc., but I participate, because they save/make me money. But I believe they are unfair tax rules that serve only to complicate the tax code and skew people's decisions. At the end of the day, the government needs to fund its operations by some means, or it needs to match its operations to its revenues.

We are using 10,000 years of stored sunlight a day.

Your units are ambiguous about a unit of area.

Humans are using a quantity of energy per day: Joules / day (units of power)

10,000 years of sunlight : years x .1 Watts (joule/sec) per sq meter

So did you mean over the entire earth? or a fraction?

Edit: Can't make the time work either...

fyi LBD

bill gates and warren buffet have donated a ton of money to charity

and as for donating directly to the gov...public school districts being part of the public sector...gates and buffet have given substantial sums to schools who apply with special programs

After about of year of unemployement benefits, doesn't it become welfare? You should be forced to go to another agency for your permanent government freebies, after one year. Your job you lost is not coming back, and no 'next big thing' anywhere in sight. Sorry Pres. Obama, but you live in a fantasy land.

The financial world today seems absolutely crackers,
With debt about to blow us all sky high.
There's fools and idiots sitting on paper mache'
It's depressing and it's senseless, and that's why...
I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They buy our treasuries
Yet they're always friendly, and they're ready to please.

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
There's 1.2 billion of them in the world today.
You'd better learn to like them; that's what I say.

I like Chinese.
I like Chinese.
They buy our promise sorry notes
But they're onto us about our cruddy paper, and they're ready to cease...

concerning the Chinese. . .

mock turtle,

The subject is more federal taxes. I see the wonderful art work donated by Buffet every time I am at the hospital in Omaha. I like him but on this point I don't agree that more taxes will fix all of the dysfunction but increase it. I like Gates contribution to education.

"If you are unable to make something happen in a year, you are lacking motivation, creativity, and/or capability."

Tell that to my unemployed brother with an MBA from USC...

"but makes the point no one will willingly pay more to a dysfunctional mess."

No, some people are willing to pay more, but they want others to pitch in according to the same rules.

I believe taxation also has a function to prevent too much wealth accumulation in too few families.

I know all the libertarians here are going to want to shoot me, but part of the function of taxation is to redistribute wealth. Not so much that incentives are gone, but enough to prevent excessive accumulation. It doesn't do anyone any good to have a few kiddies with $100 million, when they can't even graduate college, tie their shoes, or wipe their own ass. The old money becomes not a reward, but a conduit for spoilage.

"That simply doesn't work. If you provide someone a dignified life, what motivation do they have to better themselves and get off welfare? You end up instead creating a permanent "need"; a solidly dependent and static underclass."

I was thinking about the permanently disabled by illness, disability or age.

Of course, those able to work should work. May there be jobs for them.

"You end up instead creating a permanent "need"; a solidly dependent and static underclass."

You end up with a permanently growing population of dependents. We have generations of families with few survival skills.

"If you are unable to make something happen in a year, you are lacking motivation, creativity, and/or capability."

And yet the UE numbers continue to rise as does those whose bennies expire.. Lack of motivation, creativity and/or capability, must be contagious. OR, there are other factors at play like obsolescence of career, lack of training/education, barriers to entry, shortage of historically transitional work, and lack of the right connections.

Allen C,

Although I agree with that sentiment, most Americans are conditioned to finding a job in their field & salary range with relatively little difficulty. The idea that they have to actually switch fields entirely and/or take something considerably cheaper is entirely foreign to them.

You might as well drop them in Honduras and ask them to find a job.

We'll know that has changed when illegals start complaining about Americans taking their jobs.

Blackhalo (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 5:35 pm

And yet the UE numbers continue to rise as does those whose bennies expire.. Lack of motivation, creativity and/or capability, must be contagious.

Shh, they have been getting along fine since Ayn-El kicked them off the dying planet Randon with the cosmic imperative "GET A JOB, SON". Pa Kent's workhouse taught them the virtue of the Puritan work ethic, and they're here to share it with you.

"Tell that to my unemployed brother with an MBA from USC... "

Ah, the irony. As we continue to over-educate ourselves, we insist that we have become too good for anything resembling real work. I bet your brother could earn some money doing any of the following easily:

• serve coffee from a cart
• mow lawns and cut hedges
• change people's oil
• wash people's cars
• paint people's houses
• sell auction lots on ebay
• start a well-red blog
• give some good hand jobs

Problem is, we think that the act of loading up on degrees is what makes us deserve the next level of pay. Sorry but that ain't the case. We deserve pay when we provide value. There is a multitude of ways to provide value, but whining "I have an MBA!" ain't one of them.

I was thinking about the permanently disabled by illness, disability or age.

That I can accept. I'd also add children subject to "less than ideal" circumstances, too.

I don't know too, I don't know too much
But I know this,
Stuff is messed up

We are using 10,000 years of stored sunlight a day.
Crude oil and natural gas are products of heating of ancient organic materials (i.e. kerogen) over geological time. Formation of petroleum occurs from hydrocarbon pyrolysis, in a variety of mostly endothermic reactions at high temperature and/or pressure.[14] Today's oil formed from the preserved remains of prehistoric zooplankton and algae, which had settled to a sea or lake bottom in large quantities under anoxic conditions. The amount of time and sunlight needed to duplicate this process for one day of oil uses takes 10,000 years.
Any questions?

Well, I'm still amazed at how many financially strapped people I hear talking about going back to school for another degree. WTF? You don't have any money to live on NOW. A lot of this is just infantile "I want Mommy to take care of me for a while longer" stuff with no real logic relating to any actual future job market. You don't have to think about fighting any political wars, you don't have to feel guilty that you don't have more than a subsistence TA job that keeps you well stocked with Ramen in your funky campus apartment.

Of course we need more money for student loans. It keeps the young people off the streets, where they might actually do something IMPORTANT. The prison complex keeps many of the kids in line, while the higher ed complex keeps the other kids in line.

(Edited to remove really stupid racial references)

"Ah, the irony. As we continue to over-educate ourselves, we insist that we have become too good for anything resembling real work. I bet your brother could earn some money doing any of the following easily:"

When I was in Ireland, I was somewhat surprised that my waiter, busgirl, the bank teller and the stripper from latvia, all had college degrees. They all get to go for free and it is a way to put off having to get a real job. In the USA it seems graduates hold it as some badge of entitlement.

This guy was constantly homeless in New York City: Able-bodied, intelligent, he refused to get a job other than for a few days at a time, only what he wanted to do. Spent all of his time "fiddling around". High school drop-out with a record, discharged early from the Army (pretended homosexuality), experimented often with illegal narcotics.

What a bum.

YouTube -

BINGO!. I am glad someone else gets it.

The amount of time and sunlight needed to duplicate this process for one day of oil uses takes 10,000 years.
Any questions?

Sure. What energy (in joules) do you think corresponds to 10,000 years of sunlight?

pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 5:39 pm

Serfs have little or no purchasing power, so serfdom is out, at least for now.

Serfdom is a profoundly ineffectual economic system that happens when individual oligarchs pursue their individual best interests to the destruction of the political / economic context. There's no doubt that tall, slender economic pyramids with broad lower levels are the least efficient type of society in terms of overall output,but they capture what output they do offer for the people at the very top quite efficiently.

It's important to understand that nobody tries to "create" serfdom, they just protect their own economic interests and exploit those with less access to capital until the serfdom -- or more appropriately, inflexible oligarchy -- is there. The serfs are optional, you don't really see them if don't have a need for a massive labor base as per harvesting fields with primitive tools. Mostly you just get an overpopulated, undereducated underclass living in favelas with no chance of real economic mobility.

One of the things that makes these social-economic systems so pernicious is that by depressing labor rates, the retard capital development and capital goods formation. You just use disposable human labor rather than real tools and you get an equivalent yield for the individuals at the top, but none of the benefits of long term capital accumulation. This is how you had so much economic stagnation during the Dark / Middle Ages. There's really not a lot of incentive for the rentier class to develop new technologies when you have an unlimited number of serfs who can be deployed in lieu of any specialized tool. I think this is something the Randonians who want to drive everyone into menial jobs to satisfy their predisposition for moralizing about the spiritually purifying value of labor overlook.

It's a sad story, Bob, but I give him credit for not shooting the supervisor or kids first, as so many do. Not trying to be flip.

But this is America; not supposed to weep for others

Since when?

"How 'bout helping work be a place where things like this DON'T HAPPEN? "

I think "DON'T HAPPEN" is never going to happen. Not knowing the person involved, I'd bet the primary "driving force" behind this person was himself. Some people drive too hard and when they find a brick wall they drive right into it. I don't know how changing the workplace will fix this.

"Problem is, we think that the act of loading up on degrees is what makes us deserve the next level of pay. Sorry but that ain't the case. We deserve pay when we provide value."

A holdover I think from when degrees were used to keep the wrong kind of people from getting in the door. Now it seems to just be more of a way to maintain the "good ol' boy" club. Outside of a Law, Engineering or Medical degree, I see very little job applicable value to them, other than that people who go through the effort of getting them, show they are willing to go through effort. Seems to be very little job practical teaching, that you can't find online these days.

Thanks. Could have been worse. Whatever he had in mind when he brought the clips, he didn't go through with it. He had kids, too.

And a large bomb dropped on a city?...

"...other than that people who go through the effort of getting them, show they are willing to go through effort."

And in the case of MBAs, that you are willing to pay significant $$$ to the school.

O/T
Just a note on the last thread. Ten years local Post Office sold their fully owned 1930's downtown building and moved to the edge of town. They pay the city $200k per year
to lease the facility, with minimal maintenance provided. This was done so the could place mail processing machines in the office. The city only has 9k in population. The machines are now gone due to low volume. The Post Office is going under because of poor management not poor labor.

Thinking of this angers me even more regarding the banksters

Very true, the WH being in bed with GS and Chase will not end well. There is a storm brewing!

TJ and The Bear (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 5:47 pm

Who said it is "my wishes"?

Me, and I assert my statement is accurate.

Furthermore, when did the definition of "safety net" change?

We're arguing about what exactly it means.

Heck, the latter part of the 20th Century is illustrative of economies where a majority of the people are engaged in trades that aren't essential to human life.

Are you telling me that house of cards and shadows was sustainable or anything other than the economic equivalent of an ephemeral kinetic sculpture?

If we are going to have a society that puts people in subsidized make-work jobs -- compliance, health, prison industry, FIRE industry, education industry -- can we at least admit it's fake. You're admitting it's an ersatz economy. It's certainly rife with massive direct and indirect state subsidies. How is this anything other than a safety net run for the benefit of oligarchs and with no honesty or self-awareness?

I mean, really now, how many people are truly employed providing the absolute basics -- food, water, shelter?

I feel that you're proving my point. Can we maybe admit what we're doing and rationalized the system? Because the non-self-aware irrational version is not doing so hot.

Personally, I think he should be the subject of scorn for what he did to his family.

A Christian would look at his case and try to figure out what went wrong, what could've been done to help him, and whether we could try to create a more just society so as to stop the serfs from throwing themselves on the machinery.

Whatever you are would rather just point and laugh to make yourself feel better.

"You don't know the person involved. You don't know the workplace involved. You don't know the management involved. "

So why couldn't he then tell the management to f#%$ off? Let me guess - probably has something to do with debt levels, pride, or lifestyle expectations.

Look, I don't want to rag on a guy that offed himself, but look at it the big way: he essentially left his family, and you'd like to make the case that his workplace did it to him. I just don't buy it. Clean and honest living is a natural inoculation against offing ones self.

I know poor folks and homeless folks with families who don't off themselves.

" Agronox (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 3:05 pm

Personally, I think he should be the subject of scorn for what he did to his family.

A Christian would look at his case and try to figure out what went wrong, what could've been done to help him, and whether we could try to create a more just society so as to stop the serfs from throwing themselves on the machinery.

Whatever you are would rather just point and laugh to make yourself feel better."

It doesn't make me feel better. But I'm willing to bet members of his own family agree with me.

talking about returning to normalcy- compare an old edition of the "joy of cooking" and a new edition. In the new addition a recipe that is identical to one in the old edition will serve fewer people than the old edition i.e the standard serving size has gone up.

"Unfortunately, game theory requires that we try to deter other suicides by not expressing too much sympathy."

Bingo. Why should I feel sorry for the guy who ain't around anymore? I feel bad for his family, who has to deal with the consequences.

I guess that's un-Christian of me. Oh well.

Weather Helm (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 6:12 pm

I guess that's un-Christian of me. Oh well.

Better to say it's not very Christ-like. I'm sure you could find many kindred souls in any megachurch.

If we're supposed to cry crocodile tears for the family man who offs himself, shouldn't then we have jubilation for the family man who endures the work stresses as needed in order to support his family, or at the very least always finds a way to be around for his family?

I stand ready to be the subject of your jubilation.

Byz,

Your assertion is incorrect. If you don't assume you know what I wish then I won't assume I know what you wish. Neither of us is uncomplicated individuals, and such a subject could fill volumes. I'd suggest what we want is not at all that far apart, it's just that we may see different paths to those goals.

Yes, the economy of the past 10 years -- hell, to some degree that of the past 25 years -- has been illusory. We definitely need sustainability, but that still doesn't mean everyone has ever been or will ever be employed in the provision of the absolute basics of life.

And I mean basics -- the stuff a Somali child would love to see daily. Clean water; basic proteins & fibers; a small house with a real bed, let alone a kitchen & a bathroom. I don't mean 1000 varieties of champagne, dozens of grades & cuts of beef, and McMansions or better with bigger closets than "Habitat for Humanity" built houses.

Are you going to argue that 100 years ago everyone was employed in providing the absolute necessities? 1000?

Not sure suicides are given proper "Christian burial" even today in all branches, but traditionally certainly not.

"Not sure suicides are given proper "Christian burial" even today in all branches, but traditionally certainly not."

Fear of death, sure leads to some strange behavior. One would think that an organization that promotes an afterlife, would be a little less concerned with how one gets there, from this one.

"Once you're willing to admit the goal, it seems like there's probably other ways up the hill that don't involve everyone rushing out to sell apples and pencils and coffee to one-another on the street corner until we get wages bid down to the lowest global denominator. Ones that are less likely to produce a thin oligarchic crust over a base of third world poverty, among other things."

Nice! I really like the thought and sentiment.

Byzantine_Ruins (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 3:27 pm

What bothers me is the idea that this charade is somehow "bettering".

Agreed. It is a charade and it is a dimunition of us all.

... Once you're willing to admit the goal, ...

I'm willing to admit it. Unfortunately for it to work we need to not let the participants look behind the curtain. It was really stupid of the US to cede technical prowess and intellectual property the way we did. There's no taking it back now. Global wage arbitration as a consequence is going to hurt us a whole lot more than it will help anyone else.

One barrel of oil contains 5.8 × 106 BTU59 °F equals 6.1178632 × 109 J or about 6.1 GJ. At the peak of production in May 2005, we used 84.631 million barrels a day. It would take 10,000 years of biological and geologic process under ideal conditions to replace this one day of use.
I'm sure you can do the math.

"The idea is deter those tempted however possible, and it's a good one."

I'm not sure I follow. Personally, it is not in my nature to want to go out that way, but I once blew a disk in my neck, and if medical science had not been able to fix it, I surely would have.

So, I have trouble seeing why, if someone is in such physical/emotional/spiritual pain, it is taboo for them to check out that way. More resources for the survivors and presumably on to the next/better life. It is just death. We all get there sooner or later.

Doubling or tripling up health and safety inspection should be the rule not the exception. One can miss, or be bribed. Three not so much.

I don't have a problem with suicide as individual, informed choice. But I want to save those who might change their mind.

TJ & Bear:
Are you going to argue that 100 years ago everyone was employed in providing the absolute necessities? 1000?

1000 years ago? Almost certainly the vast majority of the population was involved directly in the production of absolute necessities. Agricultural surplus is the predictor of social potential 'cause only the small percentage of people not involved in being primary producers. It was as low as 10% in Europe due to the bad climate.Obviously you could have had higher surpluses with a free production base.

About 250-150 years ago, you had a process of social and economic collapse that happened all over Europe -- this is "agricultural collapse" -- where the emergence of agricultural capital goods dehumanized the farm trade and related trades like spinning. Hence me posting the url for Captian Swing the Rickburner.

It was marked by widespread migration, poverty, urbanization, unrest. It's still echoing right now, as the final waves of agricultural collapse make it impossible to be a profitable small-patch farmer in the last global hinterlands. This is why you have swollen slums in the third world. Emergence of human-capital intensive industrial projects alleviated this somewhat, but state only intervention and labor agitation created artificial marketplace distortions that kept wages "living".

Now we are seeing industrial collapse, where the human capital, which is artificially expensive to keep wages living or thereabouts, is out-competed by mechanical capital goods with lower unit maintenance costs per time unit but higher sunk costs, area where wages are allowed to operate at starvation / poverty levels. Eventually the wage arb crowd will be forced out by the steam engine but that's a few decades away.

You still have the people, but over the last 3 or so centuries, there has been increasingly little for them to do. This is the triumph of our system of capital accumulation -- we can have goods without labor, but people want to continue to deploy human capital in the economic process for sentimental / legacy reasons.

OT-

I'm so used to hoocoodanode that anytime I'm at another forum and I get to the end of the comments I do the "mouse wheel jiggle" to get them to refresh. Then I wonder why it doesn't work...

I'm sorry for your loss, Bob.

Nothing is going to change for the better until we start actively participating in the collapse of this system.

It's pointless and sanctimonious to talk about privileged welfare recipients or UE recipients when there aren't any jobs.

I live in a city that was a manufacturing hub of the world. Factories were built, housing was built and people were brought to this city to fill the needs of the world. Eventually the factories were closed, and many were torn down. The people in those houses surrounding the factories had nowhere to go. There were no replacement jobs. Period. So we have cascading generations of people with no future. And we have religious fanatics continuing to encourage more crotchfruit who themselves will have no future.

Retrain, they said. Learn to program, they said. IT is the future, they said. And many tried that. No sooner than the training was completed, and the new systems were put in place, then those jobs were yanked out from under the newly retrained.

So, these people are hopeless losers?

Shame on you.

============

Suicide. I've known many. It's a combination of internal and external pressures. It's a product of a savagely competitive society. Obviously, not everybody "wins". Some take failure more personally than others.

The idea that a social safety net is somehow plagued with malingerers and layabouts is the same mentality that proclaims the righteousness of billionaires in a world of inequities. "Every Man for Himself," isn't a society. It's a barbarous jungle.

Darwin Wept

/rant

Off to to celebrate 15th anniversary with Mrs.B

""There are things I bring to the table that just aren't in the frame of the trained specialists. Some of them quite sensible, in my view, like critical thinking and questioning models."
Testing models or theories is not part of a finance specialty? That might go a long way toward explaining MBS, CDO, LTCM and other absurdities."

I have seen technical specialists who cannot see the big picture. I have seen liberal arts / general managers who can't understand the business they are in. You'll see people who are qualified and unqualified with all sorts of backgrounds.

"The people in those houses surrounding the factories had nowhere to go. There were no replacement jobs. Period. So we have cascading generations of people with no future."

I have moved thousands of miles and to different continents several times in my life. Anyone who says they are trapped in a life of poverty because the place they happen to be born no longer has a good opportunity for them fails to get my respect or sympathy. And they are not helping themselves, and sympathizing with them is not helping them either. They need to move, and quickly.

"Anyone who says they are trapped in a life of poverty because the place they happen to be born no longer has a good opportunity for them fails to get my respect or sympathy."

So what would be your beef against illegal immigrants?

"Rain forest in South America and Habitat in Africa might suffer as a result."

I have often wondered why people who are clearly at the bottom of the pile economically live in some of the most expensive cities on earth. Every day, I see people who appear to have very, very low incomes, and yet live in what is one of the most expensive locations on the planet. If I had a lower income, I would look to live in a cheaper location. There are probably millions of people living in pretty shitty conditions in major American cities, who could live quite well in small towns across the country. Yet they, and others, don't make the move, or even discuss it. Instead, we subsidize a continuation of the wretchedness.

Byz,

Totally agree. Unfortunately we have yet to reach that "Star Trek" like future wherein people can pursue their interests free of concerns about daily sustenance. Even that idea is flawed; obviously everyone that wants to be an actor won't have an audience.

Still, I'd still like to believe that people are capable of creating new & interesting ways of enriching the world and themselves without someone "giving them a job", especially peddling pencils on street corners (or, heaven forbid, alternately digging and filling in holes).

"If suicide is committed with the intention of setting an example.."

I visited Masada a few weeks ago, where according to Josephus the last holdouts of zealots committed mass suicide rather than fight their fellow Jews forced to build a ramp to their mountaintop refuge, or be taken captive by the Romans. Extremely controversial (whether or not historical fact) but again game theory must be employed. Like a scorched earth tactic, the rationale is that 'we will not give you the pleasure of raping our wives and children.'

The next invaders theoretically might see less gain from their imperialism.

Obviously extremely rare circumstances.

"So what would be your beef against illegal immigrants? "

For me the word Illegal says it all. Nothing wrong with legal immigrants. I have a lock on my front door and invite those who I want in my home. I view my country the same way.

"Yet they, and others, don't make the move, or even discuss it. Instead, we subsidize a continuation of the wretchedness."

Crime rates in Houston, Lafayette and Mississippi are at 20 year highs, as a result of the breakdown of New Orleans. Be careful what you wish for, as moving those with the least skills, education, and social network contacts, to a new location may have some surprises in store for you. It may be cheap to live in rural areas, but that is because there are NO JOBS.

patientrenter (profile) wrote on Sat, 8/1/2009 - 4:12 pm

RD, I'll see your "House Arrest" with my "Non-recourse".

You are talking about the top decile. I'm talking about deciles 2 through 6. Your non-recourse class are screwed. I'm talking triage for those that might be savable.

"Suicide is considered a "crime" in Judaism, but Masada is generally a source of national pride."

Does insurance still pay out fully on "death by cop?" i.e. Shoot a cop and the boys in blue take care of the rest. What is the Church's take on that path to checking out?

The people I see don't appear to have a job.

Those are a small percentage of the population in rich countries. In poor countries, the poor survive by an intermittent stream of odd jobs for near-subsistence pay. You can't survive on that in low-density areas, because you'll hit a dry spell with no work and starve. In addition, most of the wealth is made in the cities, so that's where people can afford a few cents for a shoeshine or the other zillion small services that class provides.

I guess what I am saying is that there appear to be millions of people who either have no jobs, or marginal jobs that clearly pay way less than the cost of living in a very expensive city. So instead of make-work marginal jobs, or charity, in the big expensive city, just pay them the total cost of keeping them where they are, but only if they move to a small, cheap town. They have a choice, but show them how they can get out of the rut, and encourage them.

"obviously everyone that wants to be an actor won't have an audience."

But the best will. And the rest, will be on youTube. Not everyone can be CR, but someone still clicks on iamned. No reason really for them to go hungry.

Xenophobes love the word "illegal" because it's one-size-fits-all epithet, no heavy lifting.

Some public housing that doesn't stink:

"http://travel.nytimes.com/travel/guides/europe/france/rhone-valley/lyon/45120/la-cite-des-etoiles/attraction-detail.html?inline=nyt-classifier"

Too expensive to buy the land and build this in mid-town Manhattan, or San Francisco, but you could build places like this in smaller regional towns in the US. Hell, there are enough good empty homes in those towns already.

One nice thing about living in a small town is there is accountability for your actions, as most everybody knows what everybody else is up to, now contrast that with the stifling anonymity of a big city, where anything goes because nobody knows anybody...

I'm sure you can do the math.

Wow. Let's see if I can be that smart.

Amount of sunlight in 1 square meter \approx 1 kW.
In 4 hours, about 10 MJ of sunlight falls on the earth in 1 square meter.
In 100 days, 1 GJ of sunlight falls into 1 sq meter.
So 6.1 years of sunlight falling in one square meter yields about 6.1 GJ of energy under these conditions.

At the peak of production in May 2005, we used 84.631 million barrels a day

1 sq kilometer contains 1 million square meters.

So 84.631 square kilometers yields 84.631 million x 6.1 GJ of sunlight in 6.1 years, the same as peak production.

The earth has 148,940,000 square kilometers of land, which is more than a million times that number. 10,000 years is 1600 times 6.1. Total order of magnitude difference is 9 digits.

So the answer is: No I cannot do the math that says "We are using 10,000 years of stored sunlight a day."

I guess if we're talking straight life & death subsistence, anything will do. If we're talking any kind of life, then being able to stay in your home habitat is better for one's soul.

But that was my own experience. Others may not care.

"just pay them the total cost of keeping them where they are, but only if they move to a small, cheap town.
the man's got a sure-fire system.
An economic prison. "

Bettering your life can be done in many different ways. Moving is one of those ways. Choosing to live in wretched conditions, or allowing others to do so unnecessarily, because of a refusal to use a basic tool to economic betterment makes no sense to me.

"...but only if they move to a small, cheap town."

The small cheap town will probably love that.

CA state workers go on strike...

...nobody notices.

There are 20 million+ freelancers, part timers, and consultants ( like me ) that get no unemployment benefits so I call bullshit on extending them.

Time to adjust to 21st century America and the global economy.

@km4,

All you have to do is set up an S-corp and pay your Fed and state UI through the corp while you are working.

Then, if you lay yourself off, you can collect unemployment.

I am not joking. I had this conversation with a state UI employee when I was setting up my first S-corp back in 93.

Tiered House Prices for Several Cities

Fair Economist, thanks for that intelligent and informative post (about the underclass in wealthy cities).

Like so many others, because I am self-employed, I don't even qualify for the stinkin' unemployment. (I am so underemployed now that I should get an unemployment bonus.) As for the concern that the unemployment checks will soon end for many, why doesn't the government continue to pay unemployment to every applicant until there are no employees remaining, that is, until everyone is out of a job. Surely that would satisfy the libs.

"there's no future in bemoaning the limited space available in the most popular places in the world. For example, there is only so much beautiful coastline in temperate and civilized regions of the world, and there are more and more people in the world every day. Obviously, we have to prevent most people from living there"

So bankers lending at 40 to 1 leverage ratios to LA, San Diego, Miami, and NY residents, to buy houses at 13 to 1 income, accomplishes this HOW?