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ResistanceIsFeudal,
My question--is it time to bring back the term 'Yankee Trader'....seems we are following an old play book right now, except now we are the 'natives'.
BFF!
BFF!
BFF!
Ooooh! A "secret watch list!" Dean Vernon Wormer would be so proud!
I wish Home Gnome, lets start a day early shall we?
Anyone else suspect NOTaREALmerican may be Jas' new nickname?
Can't do it today, Vonbek.
I've got a "honey do" list a mile long.
Dang it.
I'm paranoid Uncle Ar, I suspect everyone is someone else...
pigged...
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 11:43 am
ResistanceIsFeudal
My question--is it time to bring back the term 'Yankee Trader'....seems we are following an old play book right now, except now we are the 'natives'.
Definitely. Though you have to admit, a plan to allow people to become highly educated and useful workers while remaining in psychological infancy through artificial prolongation of youthful narcissism and wish-fulfillment plus ensuring they had readily-available credit to prolong the fantasy was a pretty clever strategy.
Speaking of to do lists, I have a rather lengthy one myself...lacking motivation today...
one of the reasons community banks are so invested in C+D is that they don't have the financial resources to compete with the big boys on the consumer side. From a tech perspective, community banks are effectively shut out of the credit card business; likewise, they could not also compete with the ATM offerings. most of these banks were lucky to have a couple of units. regulatory compliance was another hurdle. that left them competing amongst one another for the C+D scraps...
"Lenders Gone Wild" -- I'm getting a visual of paunchy middle-aged bannksters in bikinis gyrating to cheap pop music. I have to go AFK and take a pill now.
Resistance,
Just waiting for Logan's Run to become reality...I mean we have already programmed the masses that there is no value to anyone over 30, and it would sure as hell fix the debt and resource problem...
someone explain how fed buying tbonds from PDs on settled securities is QE?
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 11:51 am
Resistance,
Just waiting for Logan's Run to become reality...I mean we have already programmed the masses that there is no value to anyone over 30, and it would sure as hell fix the debt and resource problem...
LOL. Damn, and here I just hit thirty about two months ago...
Well, off to a corporate integration meeting… I'm guessing we're going to level-set our table-stakes and orchestrate our core competencies in a strategic organic going-forward space. Of course, we are expecting “challenges” but there will be great opportunities too.
NAR - you need to successfully create cross-functional synergies by leveraging those core competencies.
S (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 12:52 pm
someone explain how fed buying tbonds from PDs on settled securities is QE?
Quantitative easing - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Denninger:
Unemployment Report FAR Weaker Than Claimed - The Market Ticker
No, I don't think it is.
Anyone get the feeling that the Fed and Treasury are fast approaching the 'little boys who cried green shoots' too often stage and soon all the peasants are going to let them drown in their own brown pool of mud. Nah, probably just wishful thinking.
I live in Minny and there is empty CRE space everywhere these days. More new condos just coming onto the market now as well. This thing ain't over by a long shot. Will play out over many years and many tears.
I'm running quite a bit behind (and missing a lot of the comments), but I can clearly see this site needs more
.
Anyone having any problems? I'm still seeing some load spikes, but they're much, much smaller. Amazing how much time we were spending compiling php code - eAccelerator is a useful tool. I think I've determined the culprit too (a slow sql query causing backup), and will be looking at solutions next week.
from pigged thread
BTW Crispy: The reason that I asked about MOM vs YOY is that I think there is a good chance that we are seeing "ringing" in the system. If so, we'd expect to see another drop in the future. The next drop would be not as scary as last year, but would be a drop nonetheless.
Anyway, keep posting the internal readout from your company... some of us are paying attention.
Businesses at one point had to have some starting capital and then over years work up a reputation that allowed them more and more credit.
Now a bunch of frat boys from the kegger get 3 mil to start a "business" with their daddy's connections....
Personally, I can't wait to watch all their imaginary money crash and burn.
Maybe I don't want to be a "business man", but apparently the alternative in this country is being a sucker.
NOTaREALAmerican,
Have fun. I'm off to do due dilly on acquiring a product line in about an hour.
Hopefully we can also do a little leveraging...
Great work, Ken!
Hooray!
Thanks ken.
gee, what a surprise, a decent bond auction today.
helps when you buy 7B earlier in the morning, of course.
the flood of cheap money continues...
Lenders Gone Wild
Girls Gone Wild
What's the difference here
Wow Ken! You're just the greatest!
Denninger got it right with the unemployment report.
The jobless are now leaving the cover of government aid... and the government doesn't bother to count em.
Welcome to banana republic. Population YOU.
Doesn't Hoocodanode run CentOS?
Slashdot | CentOS Project Administrator Goes AWOL
be careful of what you wish for- if we get
a positive GDP, rising stock prices coupled with falling wages and job losses we will then get a chance to test the patience of the American people. I believe that is a far more explosive cocktail then job losses coupled with falling GDP and falling stock prices.
I believe that is a far more explosive cocktail then job losses coupled with falling GDP and falling stock prices.
Ah c'mon. Everyone likes to see rich bankers.
After well over a year of complete radio silence, the radio commercials from Lenox Financial have just returned to the airwaves in NoCal. You know the tagline: "Biggest no-brainer in the history of mankind."
Is this some kind of contrary indicator?
"Denninger got it right"
He also posted his now famous "nuclear bomb" near S&P 666, stating the worst was yet to come.
mr. rosenberg-
love your analysis, and thanks for participating in this discussion.
you the man.
Anyone know if the Treasury sale went off ok?
"helps when you buy 7B earlier in the morning, of course."
Yep.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Permanent Open Market Operations
crispyandcole (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 1:10 pm replyIgnore user"Denninger got it right"
He also posted his now famous "nuclear bomb" near S&P 666, stating the worst was yet to come.
I don't think that's accurate. I was very short at that time and he posted a warning of a huge snapback rally any day, a few days before the bottom. Saved me lots of money
cinco@
Bank x has said tbonds in portfolio. Bank a sells to fed tbonds: securities go down cash goes up. Assets flat. Loans flat. Bank a goes back to auction buys more bonds. Rinse wash repeat. Bank balance sheet hasn't changed a nick. Unless they are buying the tbonds at premium and it is being multiplied on the loan side, zero impact. This ignores the embedded massive bad debt on balance sheet in need of destruction.
All the fed deos is ballon liability (currency) and grow "assets" - this is not an adequate trnsmission mechanism for $ to economy
so we may also see BFF and CUFF concurrently!!! WOOT!!!
c&c - I agree with ya.... He's a bit... eccentric at times
bid to cover 2.6 sv. 2.4x avg. indirect light
crispyandcole (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 10:10 am
reply ignore user
"Denninger got it right"
He also posted his now famous "nuclear bomb" near S&P 666, stating the worst was yet to come.
And that is why you need to parse the data and ask yourself whether it's right or wrong based on merits. And that goes for both bulls and bears. Denninger got this one right regardless of bad calls in the past.
homegnome
cAn i have cAtagory of ga banks for today or tomorrow?
i know there are some left.
ps anyone got link for credit union fails
got my vote on bff 7-31-09 thanks rob dawg and homegnome
From the Strib piece CR linked to...
Noah Wilcox's family has owned and operated Grand Rapids State Bank since 1920 and, as he watched colleagues and rivals plunge into Minnesota's hot real estate market over the past decade, he recalled a comment a friend in the business once made: "Real estate is the cocaine of the banking business."
Silly Minnesotans - drugs are for dopes.
Check out tnx. That's all you need to look at when asking whether the auction was a "success"
" Denninger got it right with the unemployment report.
The jobless are now leaving the cover of government aid... and the government doesn't bother to count em."
His post was correct, but as I have been saying for awhile, looking at those numbers is useless.
We need one number - U6. That is all that matters anymore in terms of employment.
I keep telling you - you want to see the future of America, don't look to the America of the 1930s or Japan of the 1990s, look to Argentina 1975 - 1991. That is what we are becoming - high structural unemployment, growing divide between rich and poor, corrupt ruling class. All the result of printing money to paper over underlying economic problems.
And I fully concur with with Manwich - CRE is a disaster out here. Over a year ago I said CRE would be to rural & exurban flyover what 'subprime' & 'Alt A' are to the coasts, Vegas & AZ.
We just don't have the shoppers [in numbers or incomes] to support it all... what were they thinking?
Oh and thanks kcoop - never enough let alone too much
...
for about 3 weeks, denninger was right on his nuclear bomb. s/p was 820+ when he posted in mid-february, right before the markets took the cliff-dive during the bank nationalization scare.
KD's still kinda coo-coo tho...
"a positive GDP, rising stock prices coupled with falling wages and job losses we will then get a chance to test the patience of the American people."
I agree. In a deflation/depression there is more of the "we are all in this together" attitude. A lot of rich people lost their shirts during the GD.
What we are going to see is a growing divide between the haves and have nots. True Banana Republic style.
This is what I have been saying for a while. People, Bernanke has cornered the MBS market. $1.25T this year.
This is Argentina-style printing.
1:22pm
MarketWatch:
BREAKING
Delphi bankruptcy sale to lenders, GM cleared: WSJ
to the moon!
Check out this nugget from my area..
apparently the developer hasn't made a payment since last year...
A group of 9 lenders has asked a federal judge to seize Perkins Rowe in Baton Rouge, claiming developer Tommy Spinosa and his firms have not made interest payments on their loan since October.
KeyBank of Cleveland filed the lawsuit Tuesday asking the judge to foreclose on the property; place it under the supervision of a real estate management company; and force Spinosa and his companies to pay the more than $165 million still owed on the original loans.
The loans were to be used to finance the construction of 229 apartments, 88 condominiums, 373,000 square feet of retail space, around 138,000 square feet of office space, parking and other improvements.
this is big news here...as this center is all new and flashy catering to the snobs and snob-wanna-bes...
really need cup of coffee kcoop. pretty please with milk and sugar.
only had trouble once with double post, didnt look like it was moving click again and got 2.
you re good thank you for everything you do for us.
I'm sorry, way OT, and I don't care about the story, just the headline on CNN:
White House beer might help nation chill
What was the quote from Ben Franklin, beer is proof God loves us...something like that.
Hell, let's forget the beer and go straight for the whiskey...hard times call for hard liquor.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Permanent Open Market Operations
Note they never buy the maturity being auctioned - that would make the monetization too obvious.
But clearly they failed yesterday in only buying $3B - the result was basically a failed auction.
So this morning they buy $6.5BB. Much better result.
Obama is serving "BUD LIGHT".
He has no damn taste at all.
Is "Hamms" still around?
I hope you are kidding Home g-nome. That is just sad.
should have at least gone with an American beer.
Hamms? You mean a beer that is right up there with Ortliebs, Schafer, and other luminaries?
ohh, good one go shorty.
Saw it on CBS news.
Yeah, truly tragic taste.
That's the one GDD...
CR, in Marc Faber's most recent news letter he has a lot of quotes from Krugman where he is essentially advocating the creation of bubbles.
I'm becoming increasingly confused by your stance on these issues since you seem to be simultaneously criticizing loose lending and bubble related activities while constantly promoting the viewpoints of an economist who advocates precisely this type of activity.
Is Marc Faber misquoting Krugman or taking his "bubble would be helpful" remarks out of context?
Faber seems to be portraying Krugman as the next Greenspan and at least from the quotes he presented, he seems to have a good case.
BTW, I should add that Faber didn't date the remarks, but if they were recent then IMO that is highly disturbing.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York - Permanent Open Market Operations
"Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase "
Translation:
Operation Type: Outright DILUTION OF YOUR CURRENCY
I think Lefty has over by the Lucky Lager.
Fannie, Freddie Won’t Repay All Aid, Lockhart Says (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, won’t be able to repay all of the $84.9 billion in federal aid they have received since being seized by the government last year, their regulator said.
“Some assets and senior preferreds will have to be left behind as they come out of conservatorship, and that means some of those losses will never be repaid,” Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart said at a speech in Washington today. “Their book is so large, it’s hard for me to see that they will be able to repay all of that.”
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have posted $150 billion in losses going back to the third quarter of 2007, will continue losing money “for at least the next year or so,”
steel toed bunny slippers?
there is a definite need
Yay green shoots..the economy's recovering..woo hoo. But who will benefit? only he top 99% of earners- the same as it;s been since Reag.anomics.
How else would you explain how executive wages have skyrocketed, while worker wages having been LAGGING inflation for the past 2 decades? Why do we put up with this B.S.? Maybe the economy needs to shrink some more so that real change will take place that EVERYONE can benefit from instead of the wealthy investor creator class.
hat tip to Interesting Finance & Economic articles
wsj has resorted to calling horrible economic news "benign". Yeh, it's a tumor - you've just misdiagnosed it unfortunately.
it's not Friday, but let's all sing the monty python spam song in honor of iamned
The brewery's abandoned but I think Miller is producing a beer under the Hamms label.
OT:
Your political compass
Economic Left/Right: 4.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.36
This does move the max economic right plot out...
poic i dont know anything about that except it dont look so good? right?
"Lenders Gone Wild..."
Will there be a video?
Yes, and it will be a hand held video that makes you even more nauseous than the content.
"" Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. mortgage-finance companies, won’t be able to repay all of the $84.9 billion in federal aid they have received since being seized by the government last year, their regulator said."
As the "walk away" trend picks up steam those companies are increasingly screwed.
I've been saying this for awhile as well - shut them down and put all the government housing insurance activities with the FHA.
A note on SPX earnings:
Revenues in Q1 grew -11.49% YoY.
So far, revenues in Q2 -15.12% YoY.
Exclude financials and the difference is larger.
The EPS and net income growth rates are roughly the same... suggesting not a bottoming, but (wait for it) aggressive cost cutting. Which isn't bad in an inventory recession. This is not an inventory recession.
A great big
for Ken and a new poll is up for BFF. No more need to keep track! Way to go Ken!
@dryfly: And there are WAY too many retail establishments in Minny to support the population here, especially if this level of economic activity lingers, which I expect it will for many years. I imagine many are just hanging on hoping for a miracle before they finally throw in the towel.
You weren't kidding HomeGnome,
Beer choice at Obama meeting touches off new debate
Can the American man respect a President that drinks Bud Light? Inquiring minds want to know, we need to get the pollsters on this asap...
Hamms is still around. Since I got laid off, I've had to make some cutbacks - one of them is drinking less microbrews / imports and more cheap beers. I can get a pint of Hamms at the neighborhood pub for $2.50 a pint ($1.50 during happy hour) vs. $5 to $8 a pint for the pints I use to drink.
wall street, using Bernanke's printing press and the us taxpayers money w/o their permission , is going wild. So much for transparency and deleveraging which Obama promised. He now is calling for wall street to pay " fees for leverage".
is hamm the beer from sky blue waters?
interesting clip from CNBC this morning about the "green shoots" in housing; nothing that hasn't been documented here numerous times, though it was nice to get a national perspective. just fast-forward to the 1:08 mark.
Video - CNBC.com
Thanks for the BFF poll Ken!
And thanks for all the Hamms feedback.
for scone,
YouTube - Sprint TV Commercial ('Push It Real Good")
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 10:42 am
You weren't kidding HomeGnome,
Beer choice at Obama meeting touches off new debate
Can the American man respect a President that drinks Bud Light? Inquiring minds want to know, we need to get the pollsters on this asap...
Imagine the uproar if he quaffed a "Black and Tan."
Circuses and beer ?
Urgh.
That is just so wrong.
If he can't manage a Chicago microbrew, couldn't he at least serve a Sam Adams summer ale or something drinkable and on-topic.
Rob you know some aide somewhere told the pres to drink Bud Light in order to 'empathize' with the common man. We need a new slogan...instead of what would Jesus do, it should be what would Abraham Lincoln drink...that's the ticket.
California will be fine until "Two Buck Chuck" can no longer hold price.
N.B. I put up the BFF poll but clearly Ken deserves all the credit for his efforts.
Can the American man respect a President that drinks Bud Light?
I spent years being a beer connoisseur, going to micro breweries, going to home brew parties, trying every exotic beer at the liquor store and deciding what my favorite most artistically crafted lager/ale/pilsner/etc was.
After years of experimentation and careful thought I've pretty much decided Coors Light is the way to go.
I don't know Obama, but I know enough about him that he doesn't prefer to drink Bud Light. He has imported beer drinker written all over him.
I'll take a little credit over here, Gov. Dawg.
Hamms is still around. Since I got laid off, I've had to make some cutbacks - one of them is drinking less microbrews / imports and more cheap beers. I can get a pint of Hamms at the neighborhood pub for $2.50 a pint ($1.50 during happy hour) vs. $5 to $8 a pint for the pints I use to drink.
Ahhh Hamms... used to get 75 cent pitchers at a dive on Como just north of the U of MN. We turned the 'Land of Sky Blue Waters'... into rivers of piss yellow. Circa late 70s.
watered down beer = 8th deadly sin
So what does a guy having sex on a boat and Coors light have in common?
They are both F*cking close to water!
Hey, I'll be here all week folks.
iceman (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 10:49 am
I don't know Obama, but I know enough about him that he doesn't prefer to drink Bud Light. He has imported beer drinker written all over him.
I'd bet privately he's an Asahi Super Dry man by preference and a Tsingtao man by command of his masters.
it should be what would Abraham Lincoln drink...that's the ticket.
Abe very, very seldom drank alcohol, and preferred plain water to any other beverage.
Coors Light secret recipe: Bottle only the purest mountain spring water while staring at amber waves of grain and thinking good thoughts of fermentation.
i want to thank homegnome,rob dawg, kcoop and cr(especially him).
thank you. thank you very much.
Yalt, I know it was an inside joke...he did go to parties like Jesus though.
Heck I just leaned the Iraqis have micro-breweries all over Baghdad. Seems they have a liberal interpretation of the alcohol prohibition, and beer isn't fermented.
Guiness for evenings out, Coors Light when I am gonna be drinking all day in the sun.
The right beer for the job.
Bud Light is probably the most popular beer in America. I know. I don't get it either. But that's what all the young Navy guys drink, I can tell you that.
White House beer might help nation chill
I've been hoping for 3 way fist fight with video recording.
is hamm the beer from sky blue waters
recycled urinal water from the bars that serve Hamn's. pis* in, pis* out.
The media says the recession is over and even Lou Dobbs is on the band wagon. So everybody, break out the brew and let's enjoy. YouTube - HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN
I guess the treasury auction went well?
km4 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 1:04 pm
Lenders Gone Wild
Girls Gone Wild
What's the difference here Wink
Ask your Dad-
S (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 1:14 pm
All the fed deos is ballon liability (currency) and grow "assets" - this is not an adequate trnsmission mechanism for $ to economy
The idea is to transmit the money to the banks
Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 1:07 pm
km4 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 1:04 pm
Lenders Gone Wild
Girls Gone Wild
What's the difference here Wink
Ask your Dad-
One could have long-term consequences. The other - don't worry, Uncle Sugar'll make it right.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 1:19 pm
I keep telling you - you want to see the future of America, don't look to the America of the 1930s or Japan of the 1990s, look to Argentina 1975 - 1991. That is what we are becoming - high structural unemployment, growing divide between rich and poor, corrupt ruling class. All the result of printing money to paper over underlying economic problems.
Sounds like Britain prior to Maggie Thatcher
How high's the ten-year, mama?
Three percent and risin'
How high's the ten-year, papa?
Three percent and risin'
We're making all our payments with HELOC cash
The banks won't replenish this final stash
Just counting down dollars til we have to crash
Three percent and risin'
How high's the ten-year, mama?
Four percent and risin'
How high's the ten-year, papa?
Four percent and risin'
Well, some days it seems I could pay my debt
For now, at least 'til my ARM reset
But keeping current seems like a losing bet
Four percent and risin'
How high's the ten-year, mama?
Five percent and risin'
How high's the ten-year, papa?
Five percent and risin'
Hey, look at that latest Treasury buy
Uncle Ben making sure rates don't get too high
Just hope that his credit never runs dry
Five percent and risin'
How high's the ten-year, mama?
Six percent and risin'
How high's the ten-year, papa?
Six percent and risin'
Chinese just admitted that they got rolled
Lost twelve figures on the bonds they sold
Seems now they're buying up land and gold
Six percent and risin'
Well, it's six percent and risin'
Apologies to Johnny Cash, may he rest in peace.
ghostfaceinvestah (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/30/2009 - 1:19 pm
I keep telling you - you want to see the future of America, don't look to the America of the 1930s or Japan of the 1990s, look to Argentina 1975 - 1991. That is what we are becoming - high structural unemployment, growing divide between rich and poor, corrupt ruling class. All the result of printing money to paper over underlying economic problems.
Dead on, it is a likely path for the future here. Don't cry for me, Argentina.
The
is here. And that gray blob really is steel. You don't want to test it.
Yikes, the bunny got pigged. I sense a disturbance in the force.
market will keep going higher despite the fact the economy is in bad shape. Funds just don't seem to care about stuff like job loss and non-existent econ growth.
good articles: Interesting Finance & Economic articles
bbartlog - Now that's what I'm talkin' about! Excellent!
Somehow, Bud got to be the patriotic 'murican beer. (ain't marketing grand) I wonder how long it will take for that meme to fade, now that the Adolphus' spawn has cashed out?