Study: Using Home ATM Led to Most Foreclosures in SoCal
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CalculatedRisk on Tue, 07/28/2009 - 3:31pm (283 comments)
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and that home ATM money stoked the economy from 2002 til the crash...
Which is why I think any sort of recovery talk is horsecrap. We haven't really finished the 2001 recession yet... It was just preempted briefly.
"...virtually all of the borrowers had taken large amounts of equity out of the property through refinancing..."
At last, some proof. But did they take it out to finance a spending spree, or medical debts, or to keep up a middle class life (e.g. 2 cars and 2.2 college educations) in a declining wage market?
It may seem unfair that these homeowners receive help from the bank (or from the government)
Yes. But I do think it matters.
False dichotomy. The same logic applies between the three scenarios.
Jingle Mail < Mod'd 1st Mortgage < Paying the new 2nd mortgage + 1st Mortgage(which is underwater)
Especially given the fact that since, "Everybody's doing it", you tend to see your potential credit downgrade as being relatively not any worse off.
AND it's taking so long for many reasons, not the least of which that the gubment is inacting moratoriums on foreclosures, to get kicked out. Why not just let it all go to shit and live rent free?
my vote: spending spree & to keep up a middle class lifestyle
and the demographics, debt and entitlement picture are far worse at this point.
keynesian horseshit and pork turned a recession into a depression.
The only question is how long can the fantasy go on. The USSR had a good 75 year run. I'm thinking we've got 20 years of an ongoing fantasy, so we should be able to get another 50 or so with Obi Ben's stock bubble.
@nullpointer "cant figure ZH out ... some of the stuff is really good, but some of the other stuff he posts is batshit crazy".
My take: ZeroHedge is sort of like the Anti-Cramer!
Cramer knew '90s hedge fund tactics and had inside perspective on a lot of things from that period. But now he's just an entertaining shill, where much of what he says (and possibly even believes) is just wrong, and certainly wrong for millions of people in his audience...
ZH knows '00s Wall Street tactics and has inside perspective on a lot of things (more recent than Cramer). And he's a fantastic and entertaining critic of the system.
Both appear to be massively overcaffeinated and/or hyperactive (or improperly medicated)...
ZH will eventually learn that it's better to post fewer words with greater depth of thought and wisdom. The adrenaline-junkie approach leads to too many serious errors. If he continues down the current path, he risks turning into the CNBC of the blogosphere -- in the limit of maximum verbosity, a million posts/day will provide nonstop "content", but nothing much deeper than stream-of-consciousness thinking.
With that said, I thought the collection of Rosie's slides that ZH commented on were quite interesting, even if some of the commentary was hastily-written (ABI leads "residential" investment?), underedited ("Wells Frago"?) and therefore not fully accurate.
Now if we could get ZH to pick up some of CRs humility, integrity, intellectual rigor and general class -- we'd have another CR.
the USSR came down shockingly quickly...
All we need is some soros-type character to pull some currency stunt and send the US into a $ collapse...
Spending spree. But they are victims of evil bankers, not poor decision-makers, and clearly we need a new government agency to help identify a "safe" mortgage for people.
Cinqo my friend, the Poker analogy is that money changing hands faster may be a fun diversion, but does not by itself create value. You could probably argue that big sums changing hands fast is more likely to destroy value, or the potential to produce it.
BURN (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 7:41 pm
the USSR came down shockingly quickly...
All we need is some [S]oros-type character to pull some currency stunt and send the US into a $ collapse...
Are you certain he had nothing to do with the current situation?
maybe ZH will get a show on the anti-CNBC...
Mad Losses
I have heard of several long-time,older homeowners with paid-home off homes who took hundreds of thousands out of their houses to play the stock market -- and flushed it all down the toilet. They're twisting in the wind, waiting. I feel for them, but they were the ultimate suckers, and now they're facing old age with no home and limited resources.
Burn and NOtaReal
the USSR had at best a 55 year run, after that it was downhill pretty fast ...
had they had a reformer in there like Nikita instead of that party hack Brezhnev
who knows?
Re: soros-type character to pull some currency stunt
would take more than one. It would be an amazing risk too. Most of the big-dawgs have money here too.
I'm guess we're good for one more bubble. We're just not seeing it yet (or not all of us, anyway). 10 more years, 10 more years, ....
Liquidity can add some value, but unstable real interest rates can be destructive to long-term planning.
Spending spree. - BG
Well, but where are the facts? How do we know? Somewhere I read that the biggest cause of bk was medical bills, over insurance, and among the people I knoqw, that's always been the case. Lose your job, lose insurance, get sick with something expensive like cancer, and then foreclosure, bankruptcy. I don't know any big spenders in my circle. That's just anecdotal, of course, but I don't think I'm unusual. I wish I could find the data!
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 7:42 pm
Cinqo my friend, the Poker analogy is that money changing hands faster may be a fun diversion, but does not by itself create value. You could probably argue that big sums changing hands fast is more likely to destroy value, or the potential to produce it.
I didn't say anything about value. I was saying that an 8k credit didn't necessarily translate directly to -8k tax receipts. It might be only -2k when other factors are considered.
carbon credit bubble?
health care bubble?
"Spending spree. But they are victims of evil bankers, not poor decision-makers, and clearly we need a new government agency to help identify a "safe" mortgage for people."
We need a new gov't agency to basically pound in the fact that BANKERS ARE EVIL. Over and over and over and over.
They spent billions to mislead. It's unAmerican to spend some money to counter that.
My mistake, of course it is. The sheep should never be given a level playing field with the well-finance predators.
Zero Hedge is probably a kid who (1) has picked up enough finance vocabulary to convince people who do not know better and (2) does a lot of name-dropping. Anyone in finance recognizes this immediately. If I were Rosenberg, I'd be embarrassed by that thing.
All of the above scone.
Comment about men/women in previous thread, if anyone cares.
They're twisting in the wind, waiting. I feel for them, but they were the ultimate suckers, and now they're facing old age with no home and limited resources.
For every one of those, I know eight (no exageration) who liberated equity from their primary home to become Real Estate investors. I still cannot believe that I know as many people with 4+ investment homes as I do people waiting to buy. Gulp! That isn't a balanced equation... There is going to be a little thrust there.
Move the foreclosures into the inventory. Hiding this mess is only making things worse.
I saw the fancy cars in the driveways! Massaratti, Austin Martin, S-class mercedes, BMW replaced by a bigger engined BMW, Trucks, trucks, and more trucks...
All with private college stickers "USC Mom," "Harvard", etc. I cheered when I saw the old Honda with a "West Point" sticker on it!
I vote on spending.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I recently got access to one of the many public records websites for orange county. Looking through various parts of Huntington Beach, I noticed one thing: at least half of those who bought in 2002-2004 have refi histories WAY longer than normal. I cant tell you how many homes I've come across that started with manageable loans (~400k) and now have 600-900+ against their homes.
I think we're going to see a LARGE number of defaults at the mid-high end for no other reason than they pulled out more than they could afford.
Re: Are you certain he had nothing to do with the current situation?
I've heard, but can't confirm, that Soros actually caused the recession in order to scare the REAL merican people into voting for those socialists. Then, all it took was the liberal media to play it up. BUT, if we let this information out, the economy will recover and all our short-bets will be ruined with the DOW at 14k (where it WAS headed before Soros manipulated it downward). So, let's keep this under our hats, shall we. I know it's not patriotic, but on one hand there's patriotism on the OTHER money. Hmmm, what WILL it be?
neil (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 7:48 pm
. I cheered when I saw the old Honda with a "West Point" sticker on it!
Do you live in Central Mass?
I read that the revolt in Roman britain was caused by some financial bigwig (Senaca?)
pulling his money out. Plus sa meme change. . .
boy I'd love to pickup an Aston Martin at a firesale/bankruptcy price
people seem to be hanging on to their toys tho...
Re: pulling his money out. Plus sa meme change
Yeah, the famous bath bubble.
Bond Girl, you're sounding like Michelle Caruso Cabrera?
they had a lot of interesting stuff at ZeroHedge about Goldman... but saying that their editorial policy
could be a bit more controlled and reflection would be helpful at time... speed to publsih seems to be a problem
plus an underlying nihilistic POV (he didn't choose Tyler Durden for nothing)
I've seen things on there say about HFT that were quite illuminating...
"It may seem unfair that these homeowners receive help from the bank (or from the government), but as far as slowing foreclosures it really doesn't matter why the homeowner is underwater. "
I agree with Bond Girl. Fairness does matter to some of us, and I think it should be used to make decisions. If our society doesn't use fairness to help make major decisions, then what does that say about us? What kind of future will that attitude lead to?
When the aqueducts collapse and people went from running water to using an outhouse to relieve themselves...that must have been when people realized that "Rome" had collapsed.
Re: people seem to be hanging on to their toys tho
No shortage of new German iron on the roads in Sacramento, the house bubble epicenter (supposedly). Maybe they are getting great prices. But, another sign that the peasants aren't REALLY cutting back like they tell people on the phone when asked.
Was it fair that AIG counterparties were bailed out at 100 cents on the dollar when Financial Guarantors were settling the same deals at 35 cents on the dollar?
Fairness is out the window for the time being.
Make fun of me all you want, Duke. The guy is an idiot.
this?
Boudica - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Fairness does matter to some of us...l PR
Me, too, but adjudicating millions of foreclosures, deciding who gets a bail and who does not, takes vast amounts of money that might be better spent on something else. Like educating people, for instance. OTOH if you could put in place some sort of inexpensive, bullet-proof filter to weed out the 'home atm for fun' idiots, I'd be all for it. But that's policy crafting, which is a bit gnarly for a blog.
"The only question is how long can the fantasy go on. "
I give it two years before the currency collapses, whenever our creditors figure a way out of it.
The Obama administration summoned 25 executives from the mortgage-service industry to Washington Tuesday to push for more generous terms for a greater number of delinquent and at-risk homeowners.
Once again WTF ( from prior thread ) .....what's the point of being fiscally responsible today when underwater Borrowers Drowned Themselves with Refinancings ? I am totally disgusted by the policy and behavior of this lame ass Obama admin
Instead, the average acquisition was made in 2002 and many homes lost to foreclosure were bought in the 1990s. More than half of all borrowers who lost their homes had already refinanced at least once, and four out of five had a second mortgage.
This is absolutely irrelevant. People who bought in SoCal in the 1990s and didn't refinance were/are STUPID. Interest rates declined through that entire period. And second mortgages? My subprime (less than the Prime Rate I mean) HELOC is an awesomely inexpensive, deductible and flexible financial planning/execution tool. Again, if you didn't get one you were STUPID.
My point is the professor has failed to establish anything like causation or association. And think about possible scenarios. If your child were facing a deadly illness would you not HELOC for the best care or forfend, making last wishes come true? Do you think that showed up as a medical default? No.
Re: that "Rome" had collapsed.
"Rome" collaping is another myth. It didn't collape; like on June 10th Romans woke up and KROM was off the air. It took centuries, it stubled around, the insider had lots of fun in the mean-time - the Pope took some really cool vacations in the south of France (started a winery there too).
Eventually, they just changed their corporate name to Italy. Probably a stock-swap that the insiders make a killing on too.
Bond Girl,
I agree to a point, he does go to excess and shows little restraint. But the quality of the commenters
on there can be quite impressive esp. when they ventured into all that Goldman front running stuff...
Bomb throwers are hard to restrain.
But did they take it out to finance a spending spree, or medical debts, or to keep up a middle class life (e.g. 2 cars and 2.2 college educations)
There is no difference between "spending spree" and "keep up a middle class life" other than one sounds nicer than the other.
Not unusual...every American (except maybe Bill Gates) is one serious medical problem away from bankruptcy. But IMO not the primary cause of HELOC spending. There wasn't an unusual spike in medical problems limited to the Southwest and Florida.
Yep, Boudicca.
gotta leave and go watch Warehouse 13.
Mind chewing gum.
A riff on the warehouse scene in the Indiana Jones movies.
FYI....Robert Shiller is on Beaker's show right now.
I'm with the Dawg.
When money is nearly free (i.e. low interest on debt), the rational thing to do is to take out a lot of debt and then invest it in something more productive. If you can borrow $500,000 at a (tax-deduction-adjusted) rate of 3%, and then reinvest it for anything greater than that, at the individual level it looks like a free money-flow machine.
The error is not in borrowing the money per se, but in what is done with it afterwards. The free money-flow machine is not sustainable...
When the aqueducts collapse and people went from running water to using an outhouse to relieve themselves...that must have been when people realized that "Rome" had collapsed. KFP
The aqueducts were used for cooking and drinking, mostly. The elite Romans had a 'head' with a lot of holes over a cesspool, usually, or sometimes over a diverted stream. This is similar to an old-fashioned 'head' on a boat, over running water. The better class of Roman used a sea sponge on a stick to wipe his ass, the lower classes used moss, grass, and leaves in a basket beside the head.
Always happy to put my history degree to work for the benefit of all.
Taking my toxicity elsewhere. Good night, everyone.
Re: then what does that say about us? What kind of future will that attitude lead to?
It says we ("us") are normal, life (the future) goes on, the scum win. Didn't you get the memo: Life isn't fair (I didn't make that up either, apparantly it's really true.)
It seemed Rome was about to collapse in the 3rd century (that is, the 200's), but they pulled it out for a little while longer and didn't finally crap out until the official date of 476.
Then again, time frame comparisons with Rome and even with the USSR are irrelevant. As we all know, the timeline of history is speeding up. Things happen faster. And faster. And faster.
To retrace
--"The tax credit is of course not "free", it reduces tax income for the government.
[cinqo]:""It's not quite as simple as that. If the tax cut results in an aggregate increase in the velocity of money, the fed, state and local govts. take their cut of the action as the money circulates."
The government loses the time value of the payment. It can only recoup the loss by taxing more, later, or others now.. But the tax credit is shared among buyer, seller, and probably bank, which benefits from greater volume and price of its loans.
The banks will write down losses, sell assets to one another and not pay tax on that benefit. The buyer owes more interest than he would without the price increase from the shared credit, so he will deduct MORE. If the seller made a profit, great, but in the aggregate he didn't, or his other income decreased to offset it. The burden is transferred to all non-banks, non-buyers, and non-sellers, us angry renters.
"total cash extracted exceeding $300 million"
If this was 300 Billion, then this laughable argument might be worth considering on its merits. $300 million is in the roundoff error realm for lenders, and given aggregate borrower debts, its one spit in the overflowing spittoon of debt.
I'm tempted to conclude that Prof. LaCour-Little was either a mortgage broker or in the pay of Countrywide. Garbage analysis!
the Fed has been led for more than 20 years by chairmen who had no senior management experience. Prior to running the Fed, Alan Greenspan started a small consulting firm and Ben Bernanke was head of Princeton’s economics department. Given their understandable preoccupation with monetary and macroeconomic matters, how much attention could they be expected to devote to mastering and managing the plumbing side of the Fed? While the record of the Fed’s monetary policy has been mixed, its supervision of financial institutions has been a predictable and comprehensive failure.
The Fed’s excessively broad mandate also has thwarted accountability. The CEOs of Citibank, AIG, Bear Stearns, Lehman and Countrywide are all gone—albeit with too much delay and with no clawback of unmerited compensation. At the Fed, no high-level heads have rolled. Mr. Geithner was promoted to treasury secretary. Mr. Bernanke is treated with great deference as he solemnly testifies that if it weren’t for the Fed, the crisis would have been much worse. But then, how can anyone be held responsible for failing at a job no human could do?
At the very least we should split the monetary policy and regulatory functions of the Fed, as was done through the Maastricht Treaty that established the European Central Bank. What we need now is a debate about how to break up the Fed—and some of the sprawling financial institutions it supervises—in order to make both the regulator and the regulated more manageable and accountable.
Let’s Break Up the Fed
The Federal Reserve has done a terrible job at financial regulation. Why give it more power?
Let’s Break up the Fed - WSJ.com
"Was it fair that AIG counterparties were bailed out at 100 cents on the dollar when Financial Guarantors were settling the same deals at 35 cents on the dollar?
Fairness is out the window for the time being."
"Fairness does matter to some of us...l PR
Me, too, but adjudicating millions of foreclosures, deciding who gets a bail and who does not, takes vast amounts of money that might be better spent on something else. "
I do respect your points of view, but let me paraphrase what I hear you saying in a way that makes clear why I don't agree with you:
Joe over there got to break the law. Why can't I?
We can't be perfect at distinguishing what is fair from what is unfair. Let's just move on. Don't pay attention to what you see over there.
re: happen faster. And faster. And faster.
We would hope so. Imagine shorting R and waiting 276 years for them to fold. Man, Goldman Sacus musta made a killing on the shorts then!
My sample was a lot smaller, but when I took a look at foreclosures here in Bellingham, Wash., I found that around half of the homes in foreclosure ran aground after refinancing a home that the owner had purchased many years before. It wasn't the initial purchase loan that got them in trouble. Some of this was no doubt just reckless consumer spending, but anecdotally, I'm told that a lot of people tapped home equity as the cheapest way to fund their small business. Others did it to pay off hospital bills, etc.
Wisdom Speaker, Dawg,
There are times when leverage makes sense. But those times are NOT when eveyone else is using leverage, especially uber leverage. Competing with stupidity is difficult. Competing with leveraged stupidity is suicide.
Re: Why give it more power?
I don't recall anybody asking me. Did they ask you?
Tip of the hat to all the strong, intelligent women than hang out here.
Adds a peppery finish to the comments like a fine Syrah.
Imagine shorting R and waiting 276 years for them to fold. - NARA
I can imagine the Chinese or Japanese doing such a thing, but not us.
ot-ish - san diego's unemployment is getting a lot worse...
San Diego Unemployment Hits the Double Digits | Piggington's Econo-Almanac | San Diego Housing Bubble News and Analysis
gee thanks, Comrade Coinz.
ghostfaceinvestah wrote at - 4:56 pm
Was it fair that AIG counterparties were bailed out at 100 cents on the dollar when Financial Guarantors were settling the same deals at 35 cents on the dollar?
goldman was a primary counterparty and the gov exists for their benefit
i challenge any poster here to find a major news media outlet esp paper or tv station with web presence
that covered the letter sent by 10 congressmen to the federal reserve yesterday challenging goldmans most favorable treatment while it continues to play casino with taxpayer support
heres the letter carried by rithotz, bless him over at big picture
please read the letter , it is bold and stunning
10 Members Send Letter to Fed on Goldman Sachs Gambling with Bailout Money | The Big Picture
I can't see residential remodeling ever coming back, as most, if not all were paid for with home equity loans.
My wife and I were going to do cash for clunker + another car and write a check for about $45K to dealer. Then after thinking about it a bit more we said screw this.....we'll wait for next shoe to drop when heavily indebted assclown Americans need to sell their expensive toys
".what's the point of being fiscally responsible today when underwater Borrowers Drowned Themselves with Refinancings ? "
There is no point.
Welcome to America.
mock turtle
that letter was also carried by Zero Hedge...
Re: it is bold and stunning
it's pointless, because it's what the peasants wanted. Ever talk to a REAL merican and bring up "public financing for elections" and (if they even know what the hell you are talking about) 9 out of 10 times they'll be against it because it causes TO MUCH democracy. American like their government being owned by THEIR nobility. All peasants throughout history have. Just a few malcontents have caused all this messy democracy nonsence.
I can't see residential remodeling ever coming back, as most, if not all were paid for with home equity loans. - H
This is true, but the only building I see around me is remodeling, and my builder friends are doing that to keep afloat. You have to remember a lot of people own their home outright, and a lot of other people refrained from the home ATM but can't sell now, so they are remodeling instead. 'Love the home you're with.' (Portland, Oregon).
km4 (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 5:14 pm
reply ignore user
My wife and I were going to do cash for clunker + another car and write a check for about $45K to dealer. Then after thinking about it a bit more we said screw this.....we'll wait for next shoe to drop when heavily indebted assclown Americans need to sell their expensive toys
Mrs. Dawg and I did the same math last night. We were going to qualify for the full $4500 with any number of choices and write a check for the rest. Doesn't make sense. The market is being pulled forward, the supply of decent used big vehicles is going away making ours worth more. Gas prices are likely to decline. We win sitting tight and buying these lightly used margilanal utility vehicles when they flood the used market.
Right now I'm thinking about buyin a sh¡tb0x gas hog for the next round when the incentives are greater.
km4,
Last year I unloaded a 1998 Ford expedition with 150K miles for peanuts. It needed ~ $2500 worth of work. I bought a new car as a replacement. The cash for clunkers deal would have been a good deal for me.
That's what you get for hating on Cleveland!
I see a lot of home remodelling projects suddenly in my neighborhood. People can't sell and are upgrading instead.
Gas prices are likely to decline. - RD
I had that thought as well, but no data. It seems to me gas prices have increased this summer like beer prices-- charging what they think the market will bear in prime season. But I have no data. Sigh.
LoL! My particular albatross is a '99 Expedition.
chiming in on the CR/ZH "thingy"
These are two different blogs altogether. CR takes a macro approach that is data driven when relating to the economy as a whole......we get very little in the way of personal comments-they are there but not much at all. I like ZH for his views on what the trading system is currently up to. He injects his personal views (which I like) into most of his posts.
The comments at ZH border on insulting to the people who take time to make them...especially if you are trying to learn something....we all should be learning but the commentariat over there seems to go out of it's way to make sure that they know more than other people.
I've learned a great deal from both sites but in two very different area's of expertise. I find that my learning curve here (at CR) has flattened out quite a bit but I enjoy the comments and the friendly discussions we all have here. This is a community and everyday I learn something new or help someone else in that endeavor. I can't say the same thing about ZH. I'd say 45-50% of what is posted there is over my head, especially the credit summaries (I know what it's saying but it's not a clean way to impart information to people) ZH's background as an ex. quant. trader really shows in his credit summary reports. That's ok though...I'd like to see more of an interpretive summary rather than just seeing some rapid fire cut and pasting of market information.
There is room for both but let's hope that this area doesn't get infected with "Yahoo-itis".
The Rosenberg report has it's faults but should be something that is disseminated widely instead of ripped upon because it has a few inaccuracies.
Ciao
MS
Duke of Con Dao
carried by zero hedge? ok roger that
yeah tyler durden has some good stuff over there,
glad to hear he covered it
I like Econobrowser for pointy headed econ tech stuff. I google off that constantly, and learn a lot, as I'm too lazy to take real econ classes.
"It may seem unfair that these homeowners receive help from the bank (or from the government), but as far as slowing foreclosures it really doesn't matter why the homeowner is underwater. "
Systemic risk and chronic nose-holding BS again.
Slowing foreclosures is unfair to prudent renters and prudent competing banks (if any).
There is no "fair" way to differentiate homeowners who "deserve" help from those who don't. Was the unemployed owner fired as deadweight? Is his whole industry a Ponzi scheme with licensing? Is he lazy? All subjective.
"Slowing foreclosures" is investor class code for "funnel money to the banks in the guise of helping the public".
My guess is the clunkers program will net a 5% increase in car sales in the last of this year.
It will help people who qualify and were going to buy anyway, but I don't think it will pull too many people off the fence.
I would also bet that the administrative costs are going to be huge. Who is going to make sure the clunkers get crushed?
From other post pig post:
Re: Prolly no one will read this!
I did. without women, men would be HAPPILY killing each other, farting, and drink bear 7x24x365 until we died. Don't forget the 4 F's of all male life: Food, Fear, Fighting, and Sex. Nothing else matters.
And that is before the round of state & municipal job cuts that are about to be made...
NOTaREALmerica wrote (in reply to mock turtle...)
Re: it is bold and stunning
it's pointless, because it's what the peasants wanted
the peasants want what they are told to want
and in the case of the 4th estate...its owned by the nobility you spoke of...except...this, here blogsphere thing (and maybe even that too...hummm
but hey did you read the letter?
heres another web page that carried it
Letter from Ron Paul & 9 Congressmen to Bernanke about Goldman Sachs | Ron Paul 2012 | Campaign for Liberty at the Daily Paul
"Slowing foreclosures" is investor class code for "funnel money to the banks in the guise of helping the public". - 1CNY
It's a bit more complex than that. Look at the electoral college votes and think about the states that have most benefited from "help" from the feds. Cali is the only state that hasn't been completely bailed, but they tend to vote Repub.
Electoral College (United States) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
ok temperature just dropped below 100 back to the re roofing project
"I'm too lazy to take real econ classes. "
I took them....almost every single one I could. It makes no difference unless you get to enact policy. Sure it may help things if your world is theory based and I would encourage people to take a few of them however don't be fooled into thinking they are going to give you any insight as most sound, fundamentally based policies went out the window 25 year's ago.
You can get a better feel for economics just opening up your ears...once you have a good base to work from.
Ciao
MS
"Right now I'm thinking about buyin a sh¡tb0x gas hog for the next round when the incentives are greater. "
I thought you quit gambling. $4500 premium for regulatory arbitrage?
Good thing I know you have a green heart.
Speaking of Rosenberg - he today mused on the issue of what would happen if Q2 GDP print positive
IIRC, just last week the consensus was for -1.5%. Today it is -0.7%. A surprise (positive or negative) seems likely
Re: but hey did you read the letter
Yeah, I did (more or less) but I still think it's pointless. Most Americans don't care. Until there's a VERY noticable drop in their standard of living the peasants are perfectly happy with their current mix of bread (fast-food) and circus (cable). Maybe if Obi Ben went on dancing with the stars he might be vote off, who knows...
ok temperature just dropped below 100 back to the re roofing project - MT
Via c' dios, dude. It's 106 degrees here in Portland, I hear you!
Come on, they were just helping the economy ...
That letter will just go away...if they do respond to it it will be with some arcane wording designed to partially answer the question while not really doing so. THe rest of it will be wrapping themselves in a flag and telling us how "important they are" to saving the system.
Not going to go anywhere. I give them props. for trying..never thought I'd see Grayson and Water's agreeing on anything..although I suspect Mrs. Water's husband has more to do with it then she does.
Ciao
MS
Depends on the econ courses you take, MS - used mine quite a bit along with probability modeling and decision analysis coursework - it ain't all macro...
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Rev. 1
Go to: The Political Compass for test and comparison to public figures
*
Now you can calibrate the source of the rant!
..................................................... Economic................. Social
...................................................... Left/Right.............. Libert/Auth
JimPortlandOR................................ -8.5....................... -7.4
Yalt.................. ............................ -7.9...................... -8.2
WestSac_girl.................................. -7.6...................... -3.8
Tom in AZ...................................... -6.3...................... -5.6
Uncle AR........................................ -6.3...................... -5.1
1 currency now............................... -6.0....................... -6.7
nullpointerv.................................... -5.0...................... -6.2
picosec.......................................... -4.8....................... -4.6
JP................................................. -4.8........................ -4.3
gabijan.......................................... -4.8........................ -3.0
GDD9000....................................... -4.5...................... -5.5
poic............................................... -4.4........................ -3.3
Comrade Alexei Miklailovich.............. -3.8........................ -3.6
Agronox.......................................... -3.8...................... -2.5
kz.................. .............................. -3.6...................... -5.3
dryfly............................................. -3.4....................... -3.5
sbarrkum........................................ -3.1....................... -2.6
Homegnome.................................... -2.4...................... -5.7
Blackhalo........................................ -2.3....................... -4.2
Black Star Ranch.............................. -1.6....................... -2.1
nyanalyst......................................... -0.6...................... -3.9
Plantagenent.................................... -0.5...................... -4.2
Rob Dawg......................................... 0.5....................... -3.6
Cinco-X............................................. 0.5....................... -2.0
teabagger......................................... 0.5...................... -1.3
TJ & the Bear..................................... 0.8...................... -3.6
Comrade DazedandConfused............... 1.6...................... -5.1
*
*
Mean................................................ -3.4...................... -4.3
Median.............................................. -3.8...................... -4.2
Max................................................... 1.6...................... -1.3
Min................................................... –8.5...................... -8.2
I’ve created an Excel scatter graph of the CR community, but don’t know how to publish it. Any suggestions?
re: It's 106 degrees here in Portland
What's that going to do the Pinot Noir crop!? Jeez, you guys will be growing Zin in a few years and all of cali will be growing Tompson Seedless. The "climate change" is crazy. I guess British Columbia wineries aren't so goofy sounding after all.
MrM's political compass
Economic Left/Right: -1.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.74
Economic Left/Right: -2.4
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.0
energy-
Yes I agree probability modeling is an important one to take. I was referring to what you learn in any of them vs. the actual application in the real world. I'm sure the risk analysis done in our TBTF institutions had lots of probability modeling.....
They probably *ucked alot of models too....which was designated "research time".
Ciao
MS
You can tell how inaccurate it is just by the averages. If there were so many REAL mericans with negative numbers there wouldn't be two political parties run by the same owners debating socialist health care.
So, either the poll is completely bogus or WE are completely abnormal.
Via c' dios, dude. It's 106 degrees here in Portland, I hear you!
Got off the phone an hour or so ago with friends of the family who retired to Yuma.
The temperature in their fine little city right now is 120 degrees.
ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY DEGREES.
I don't care how dry the heat is ... that's frickin' obscene. It would take exactly one day of 120 degree temps for me to pack the car, head north, and not stop until my car's thermometer registered back in the double digits.
Jesse's Yellen at Reagan
and dont forget Big "Pimpin" Paul Warbug.
Interesting chart of GoldmanSachs network traffic on Alex.
I can't find rising resentment yet, though.
http://traffic.alexa.com/graph?&w=400&h=220&o=f&c=1&y=p&b=ffffff&r=2y&u=gs.com&
This place has both left and right economists, but everybody seems to be on the libertarian side of the scale.
gives a hint as to why we are typing away comments instead of deciding the fate of the nation.
This chart
0.25
-2.75
Im right between Planetgenet and the Dawg.
Well, off to yoga to watch the hotties through my third eye.
"...without women, men would be HAPPILY killing each other, farting, and drink bear 7x24x365 until we died. Don't forget the 4 F's of all male life: Food, Fear, Fighting, and Sex. Nothing else matters."
You say this like it was a bad thing. And let me correct your over reaching generality of four F's of male-hood. Men can't handle more than three things, 'kay?
It is: Money, Sex, and Violence; not necessarily in that order.
I swear, I wasn't gonna post another snotty remark, but I can't help myself. It is, after all, your fault.
or WE are completely abnormal.
And why is that unlikely?
@ picosec
Economic Left/Right: -0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.54
@ not a real american
What's that going to do the Pinot Noir crop!? Jeez, you guys will be growing Zin in a few years and all of cali will be growing Tompson Seedless. The "climate change" is crazy.
I wouldn't get all freaky about the temps-- we were bound to get some hot weather at some point, since it's been very cool in the last couple of years. I hear it's the 11-year sunspot cycle.
Anybody can be normal! Wheres the fun in that!
Buncha godamn social liberals know how to have fun.
By Lisa Twaronite TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- Japan's retail sales fell 3.0% in June from the same month a year earlier, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said Wednesday, falling for a 10th straight month. The drop was deeper than the median market forecast for a 2.5% decline, according to Reuters. Sales in the April-June quarter were down 2.9% on year, showing that consumer demand remains weak in the world's second-largest economy, as Japan struggles to pull itself out of recession.
"It's a bit more complex than that"
New York has plenty of votes. And millions of renters. Corporations can't vote, only buy politicians.
Hardworking producers of value in my city keep an eye on the auction listings. Who wants to slow foreclosures? The old resident can swap. Probably still rent-regulated. The City must shelter the homeless by law. Fuck you if you're a flipper, an absentee speculator, or the bag holder of toxic paper interest.
Everyone knows the banks can't afford mass foreclosure, and there are too many houses.
Try history of GS searches on Google
Econ +2.59
Social -3.36
Wow ... a full point clear of my nearest CR competitor on the economic score. Comparatively speaking, that makes me CR's resident right-wing nutjob! Woo-hoo!
I am kind of depressed... as I mentioned before on a few occassions I write long missives
to this NY writer/columnist. Sometimes I must admit I even 'borrow' some of the best ideas found
here and roll them into my own meager musings. I never read his stuff, a sort of Jesuitical stance but
since he is about to launch a new book called Reset I decided to take a look.
just read an extended column by him in Time magazine from last March: The End of Excess
The End of Excess: Is This Crisis Good for America? - TIME
if this is a harbinger of what's in his book I ain't buying it... so much for trying to influence
a Harvard educated 'taste maker'
...............
House Panel Approves Letting Regulators Ban Bonuses (Update1)
By Jesse Westbrook
July 28 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House Financial Services Committee approved legislation that would let regulators ban incentive pay at banks and give shareholders a vote on bonuses in response to public outrage over Wall Street pay.
The bill, adopted 40-28 today, would allow banking agencies and the Securities and Exchange Commission to bar compensation practices that push financial companies to take “inappropriate risks.” The House and Senate must pass the bill before the president signs it into law. The House may vote by July 31.
House Panel Approves Letting Regulators Ban Bonuses (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese manufacturers probably increased production for a fourth month in June, capping the largest quarterly output expansion in more than 50 years.
Production climbed 2.5 percent from May, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed before a Trade Ministry report tomorrow. That would be an 8.3 percent quarterly gain, the biggest increase since the end of the Korean War in 1953.
Man, I done took the wrong modeling courses!
Comrade Kristina
Economic - 7.0
Social -5.3
Great I'm a Communist/Anarchist...I think I landed right about on the Dalai Lama
back to the ZH saga... This is... disturbing
From GE Commercial Finance to Zero Hedge, With Love | zero hedge
Nobody wants to know about Goldman Sachs.
It just fades out, over and over again.
Interesting.
I wonder if they created an anti-meme on purpose.
There are cultural blindspots.
Did Goldman create one or find an existing one to hide in?
China's national flag to rise in White House
China's national flag to rise in White House -- china.org.cn
Speechless really, and that's rare for me.
Grrr broward, I was trying not to think about them...Goldman is the antichrist...
picosec,
I scored
Econ: +.75
Social: -2.77
broward - is an anti-meme like chaff? If so, how would you tell / attribute? There's so dang many...
C
shill: hold your friends close......
.
I suggest +/- of 7 points, as the labels are probably more misleading than informative.
Trends tool gives a different view.
2006 spike, fade out.
2008 spike, fade out
2009 spike, looks like a fade out.
Google Trends: goldman sachs
C: broward puts a lot of thought into a few things.
broward - is an anti-meme like chaff? If so, how would you tell / attribute? There's so dang many..
Anti-meme theory - you can identify an anti-meme by lack of anticipated reaction.
I'm pretty sure they exist but i can't prove it.
Wouldn't you think there'd be more recorded interest in Goldman?
Casey Serin gave me the idea of an anti-meme while monitoring his site.
Despite the enormous popularity of his website, almost nobody was doing searches for his name or site.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme/?entry=an_anti_meme_casey_serin
BURN
that is disturbing that somebody at GE would do that ... might explain that 4 to 5 gigs of data siphoned off of CR
@shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 6:00 pm
China's national flag to rise in White House
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$......$2T in US reserves baby and Obama running full court press to keep them buying T bills
Chiang Kai-shek is turning in his grave
Chiang Kai-shek - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Nice chart broward, so that is what a pump and dump looks like...I guess when you can move the market at will the game gets easier...
Economic Left/Right: -0.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.54
I'm having some serious reservations about the accuracy of the quiz, but then, I'm an INTJ, and that follows.
broward: sort of like the string theory
I can't comment on GS because they will blame the shorts for manipulating the crash, as always.
INTJ?
Chen Ronghua, chairman of Fujian Association of the United States, told reporters that their application was approved not only because of the sound Sino-US relations but also because China is a responsible country. "Many Americans admire China due to the success of last year's Beijing Olympics," said Chen.
Guffaw....
cash for clunkers update-talked to a couple dealers and they are busy..90% of shoppers are qualifying per GM in one Honda store..
Credit Application numbers are 50% higher since inactment in many areas of nation. Some dealers are not happy though as they see this as a give away....
Sales will be up substantially from previous month...
I noticed something tonight. The crows are almost all gone again.
I am a crow person. I used to know crow talk somewhat. They have 20 plus word vocab...
Anyways, the last time this happened was when the bird flu thing just about wiped them and blue jays out around here a few years ago. 7?
Oh geez, of all people that shouldn't be acting surprised that we are kissing some serious Chinese ass about now...
OT in case you need a little break: Detrimental MLS Listing Photos, from Seattle Bubble Blog.
The Photoshopped grass lawns are particularly sweet.
The 'waterboy for Goldman Sacks' said get China's national flag to rise in White House or else my ass is grass;)
Where you at nova? I have plenty of crows and jays here in Florida.
nova,
thats good to hear, please send some infected birds to california. there are too many...
I was trying not to think about them...Goldman Sachs
yes, exactly my point.
And i bet they like it that way.
INTJ? -ICNY
A personality test, very widely used, somewhat based on Jung:
Myers-Briggs Type Indicator - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
China Puts Online Games That Glorify Mafia on Its Hit List
China Puts Online Games That Glorify Mafia on Its Hit List - NY Times
What...they no like Goldman Sacks ????
It was West Nile that did them in. I am in Virginia.
Now that I think about it the Starlings have faded away also/
I took that test quite awhile ago and I'm fairly certain I was INTJ.
deleted for stupidity
volker -agree.
broward - I'm just trying to get my head around this in a sociolinguistic sense. Generally the best counter moves are competing stories lies and mass. Is this different? Theoretically there should be a significant change in the linguistic context, or mode/mass of the conversation.
C
I cant seem to find an outlier, neo-liberal/right + Libertarian/Anarchist
here
I took that test quite awhile ago and I'm fairly certain I was INTJ. - CK
I suspect Bond Girl is, too. but that's obviously coming from the intuitive.
Rob Dawg wrote: People who bought in SoCal in the 1990s and didn't refinance were/are STUPID.
Crap. Now all I have is a house, nearly-paid off. Maybe dumb, but in a worst-case scenario, me and the Basset Hound can drink beers together on the porch. (I'm not being snide -- just have a different risk-tolerance, that's all.)
deleted for stupidity - nova
nah-- stupid is an INTJ who spills bean dip all over herself (goes off to change clothes).
I realized the other day the percentage of our income that we use to pay for housing dropped to under 10%
At that level we are what I consider middle class. Pay bills. Set aside for retirement and College, savings, and a vacation.
It's amazing. The news stories for Goldman Sachs show a steady increase but there's not much interactive interest from the general public. Nobody wants to talk about GS.
They're at the hub of the whole thing.
That's why they survived and many others did not, they gamed the system by placing people into key positions.
And we see very little relatively discussion about it.
Where's the big expose by NBC?
Where's the in-depth article by Mish?
And tell me again why these people should be bailed out with their cars, big screen tvs, boats,etc??
I cant seem to find an outlier, neo-liberal/right + Libertarian/Anarchist
I think it's likely that they've been purged from the board, either through direct suppression by a minority here, or disinterest in the conversation and group because they realize they don't fit in.
Interesting, isn't it?
When you live INSIDE a skew, it's very difficult to see it.
Counterpointer - I have to go, I have to get out of here for awhile. Continue the conversation tomorrow?
That is why I didn't take the test and made my own category.
Then again our house could fit in most peoples "Great Room."
I miss Fist Shaker. [shakes fist]
I just realized that I would REALLY ENJOY a dinner with Bond Girl.Time to take a cold shower and have a drink.
just looked at the county foreclosure list. first time that i've seen dock slips and parking spaces on the list... about $8M hit to a couple of local banks...
RhodesianGreenback: Economic Left/Right: -0.88, Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.56
broward, yep, sure. Apologies that I was being dense and didn't read your Serin example / test first.
I'm sure there's something in this that I can tack onto the derriere of Grice, behavioral finance, erm and a bunch of tinfoily stuff.
C
At that level we are what I consider middle class. - nova
To me, a union card is working class. To aspire to college, and not worry about "livin' beyond your raisin's" is middle class.
For your Goldman-bashing pleasure:
Bashing Goldman Sachs Is Simply a Game for Fools: Michael Lewis
Bashing Goldman Sachs Is Simply a Game for Fools: Michael Lewis - Bloomberg.com
piosec runs a weird CR table on the political compass, and I asked for one poll question...
yeah, dawg, Bernanke's gonna get the nod for another term.
my polls closin.
WSJ:
Market Slide Puts a Dent in Fed Leaders' Wealth - WSJ.com
"As of the end of 2008, Mr. Bernanke's asset holdings were between $850,000 and $1.9 million. That compares with $1.2 million to $2.5 million the year before......Mr. Bernanke received a salary of $191,300 in 2008. "
First, let me say that it's ridiculous that the guy who regulates a big chunk of our financial system is paid less than $1 million a year. Nuts!
But, let's think about that ratio between his assets and his income. Figure that taxes (SS and Medicare and state and federal) and other deductions take about $75K of his income. That leaves $115K for living expenses. I imagine he spends about $80-$115K a year, leaving $0-35K a year for savings. I don't know what he earned as a professor at Princeton, or when he was a 25-year-old, but if you assume he's been earning and saving at this level for 20 years, that's a maximum of $700K in savings. But he had assets last year worth at least $1.2 million, of which at least $500K had to be due to asset price inflation.
I know he's a saint, but is this guy, along with Geithner and a lot of other policymakers, just a little too invested in asset price inflation to help them achieve their personal financial goals?
GE Commercial Finance, Stamford Connecticut:
On behalf of the Zero Hedge staff, I want to take a minute to apologize for our filtering your 439 packets today at our firewall. It's a bit touchy, and being the keen judge of character that it is, decided it no longer had to tolerate your toxic packet underwriting. In the future, we ask that you refrain from sending innocuous requests to random ports on our boxes in search of things clearly beyond your grasp.
Further, if this is a desperate ex-girlfriend attention ploy from the likes of CNBC carried out third party: we'll kindly remind you high school is over.
tcp connect log:
07/28/2009 13:47:26 Host: 8.4.8.12/8.4.8.12 Port: 21 TCP Blocked
fw connect log:
pkts bytes target prot opt in out source destination
439 25460 DROP all -- any any 8.4.8.12 anywhere
traceroute:
16 GE-COMMERCI.hsa1.Stamford1.Level3.net (63.208.150.2) 103.728 ms !X * *
Sacramento County is facing a new budget deficit: $38 million
Less than a month into the fiscal year and Sacramento County officials are already saying there's a near $38 million budget shortfall that could get even worse....
All of that means the county -- which laid off 243 employees and eliminated numerous contracts earlier this month in order to pass a "balanced" $2 billion general fund spending plan -- could be making more big cuts in a couple months.
I registered on Redfin recently and just got an email from them with their RE update.
It included a link to CR!
I HELOC'd my home
'Cause the market was hot,
And I'd always wanted
To give it a shot.
"Free money". I thought,
"How can I lose?",
And now, a year later,
I'm singing the blues.
The market is off
By forty percent,
And the payments I make
Don't make a dent
In my overall debt
On the original note,
So I'm thinking "default",
And go live on my boat.
"My boat", I say,
With a measure of pride,
Which, after all that has happened
Has pretty much died,
And will no doubt will be repo'd,
Along with my car,
Which, for the course
Would exactly be "par",
But just leave me my clubs,
And maybe my stick,
And I'll make a comeback
Pretty damn quick.
We're a nation of gamblers.
It's always the same:
We jump at the chance
To stay in the game.
.
"And tell me again why these people should be bailed out with their cars, big screen tvs, boats,etc?? "
Now I get it I sold the boat so I don't qualify for a hand out!
If you want a free, introductory class listen to Robert Shiller's Econ 252 Financial Markets at Open Yale Courses. It is basic material but Shiller is a good speaker with an excellent sense of history and humor.
Class sessions — Open Yale Courses
DCRogers (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 6:19 pm
Rob Dawg wrote: People who bought in SoCal in the 1990s and didn't refinance were/are STUPID.
Crap. Now all I have is a house, nearly-paid off. Maybe dumb, but in a worst-case scenario, me and the Basset Hound can drink beers together on the porch. (I'm not being snide -- just have a different risk-tolerance, that's all.)
You mean to tell me you are paying year 27 of 30 or year 13 of 15 rates? 27 years ago it was like 14%. 13 years ago it was 8%. You are dumb. I don't really think you are dumb, I just don't think you are paying the high rates I mentioned as would be the case in the situation I outlined.
@ cowboy hat - Wow, thanks, this is outstanding! +1
We stopped at the grocery story on the way home. I was waiting at the deli and got to listen to woman tell someone on her phone that they were going to "walk away" and "I don't care what it is appraised at." Just another one.
I realized the other day the percentage of our income that we use to pay for housing dropped to under 10%
At that level we are what I consider middle class. Pay bills. Set aside for retirement and College, savings, and a vacation.
That blows my mind more than anything else about this whole macroeconomic disaster we find ourselves in.
Our housing expense as a share of income was 19% when we bought our first house a few years back and - knowing we were planning on having kids - we were worried whether we could really even afford that.
We're in the mid-teens now. And have an additonal 0% of income going toward car payments. And even so, let me tell you (esp. with two kids in day care on top of everything you mentioned above) we're not exactly livin' the life of Riley.
How in Glod's name do people convince themselves they can afford to spend 35% to 40% of their pretax income on house payments? I realize that not everyone's a quantum physicist, but come on - a (potential) hole that gaping in your budget ought to be glaringly apparent to just about anyone.
Thanks for the link, cowboy hat.
Mook,
Yeah, that was the point I was trying to make. 35%, to me, is insane now days.
How in Glod's name do people convince themselves they can afford to spend 35% to 40% of their pretax income on house payments? mook
To get the kids into a decent school district. The West Coast is especially like that-- renters in bad schools, owners in good schools. A contributing factor to the problem.
They fool themselves into thinking they can do it. They don't understand values.
Wow...nice link cowboy hat
Other courses for free
•Frontiers and Controversies in Astrophysics with Charles Bailyn (Astronomy 160)
•Modern Poetry, Langdon Hammer (English 310)
•Death, Shelly Kagan (Philosophy 176)
•Fundamentals of Physics, Ramamurti Shankar (Physics 200)
•Introduction to Political Philosophy, Steven Smith (Political Science 114)
•Introduction to Psychology, Paul Bloom (Psychology 110)
•Introduction to the Old Testament (Hebrew Bible), Christine Hayes (Religious Studies 145)
scone (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 6:47 pm
How in Glod's name do people convince themselves they can afford to spend 35% to 40% of their pretax income on house payments? mook
To get the kids into a decent school district. The West Coast is especially like that-- renters in bad schools, owners in good schools. A contributing factor to the problem,
The truth is 180° from what the rest of the nation is thinking. You see California schools are underfunded on the basis of being better while the worst schools get extra money for subpar performance. Yes, we spend the most on the worst schools and the least on the best with the results for all to see.
The whole 'own a home' thing is partly about mating, nesting, reproduction. Lots of primitive hormones involved, which fucks up the mind. The sheeple don't stand a chance. Poor education.
YU LIGHT UP MY LIFE< CRiskians
Debby Boone, yeewwww he likes fatties....
pulled out at the last minute
Some interesting guest speakers in Shiller's course. Carl Icahn comes across like your uncle who owns a deli. Andrew Redleaf has some interesting things to say, but I think has not completely mastered a childhood stammer.
Econ: -2.75 Social: -4.31
I'm OK with being "stupid" according to Rob's thesis. My house is paid-off. I'm sitting on a quarter million ready cash with funds I used to pay when the house had a note. (I always paid far ahead of the amortization schedule). Some of us just aren't money manipulators. I like the fact that my worries are at a vastly less elemental level than those for so many of my age peers. (I'm 52).
Poor education by who? Schools, Parents, Peers? all of the above?
"People who bought in SoCal in the 1990s and didn't refinance were/are STUPID"
.....some of like us (due to self-employment issues) could never get qualified (remember THAT term?) to refinance. Actually though, it paid off in the longer run - I sold it and moved here.
flaminia (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 6:53 pm
I'm OK with being "stupid" according to Rob's thesis. My house is paid-off. I'm sitting on a quarter million ready cash with funds I used to pay when the house had a note. (I always paid far ahead of the amortization schedule). Some of us just aren't money manipulators. I like the fact that my worries are at a vastly less elemental level than those for so many of my age peers. (I'm 52).
Are you telling me that you didn't refinance to get lower rates over the entire life of the loan?
Test results: Economic: -0.25 Social: -5.85
Yes, we spend the most on the worst schools and the least on the best with the results for all to see. - RD
Actually, I was thinking about property taxes funding "better" schools. The expensive neighborhoods generally get much better schools, and the parents throw in even more money so Johnny can get into Harvard. The kind of money you see in Marin, Lake Oswego, and the Microserf district in the Seattle area has no comparison to gov't funding at all. Those kids have a staggering lead on the game.
MIT has been hosting OpenCourseWare for quite some time. I think it was the first major school to open up most of its classes to everybody via the Internet
.....looking at some of these scores, you'da never figured I was the rational one here!
RD is right but there are also different ways to screw the mortgage company when you study the mortgage amortization schedule.
Do tell...
Correct Rob. When I bought in 1993 the fixed rate was 7.25. By the time the rates became usefully better the balance was down below $100K. I didn't want to pull money out of the house and the loan amount was too small to bother with.
Are you telling me that you didn't refinance to get lower rates over the entire life of the loan?
OK. THAT was STUPID of me! (Though I confess to being self-employed, so getting a new loan would have been tough -- excuses, excuses!)
Poor education by who? Schools, Parents, Peers? all of the above? - lbd
Honestly, I don't know. But the sheeple don't seem to know much about economics on a basic business level. They also don't seem to know geography at all. Maybe social science isn't basic enough to survive funding cuts? And then there's the high school drop out rate, at 15% in my area.
scone (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 6:55 pm
Yes, we spend the most on the worst schools and the least on the best with the results for all to see. - RD
Actually, I was thinking about property taxes funding "better" schools. The expensive neighborhoods generally get much better schools, and the parents throw in even more money so Johnny can get into Harvard. The kind of money you see in Marin, Lake Oswego, and the Microserf district in the Seattle area has no comparison to gov't funding at all. Those kids have a staggering lead on the game.
Yeah, my district games the rules as well. But understand, school funding is entirely divorced from local property tax revenues and has been since 1978. In 1978 California primary/secondary schools were ranked among the top 5. Within one "flight" 13 years California was ranked in the bottom 5. and what was the reason for this radical shift in funding? The idea of school districts paying for their own schools locally was racist. Ahhh the unintended consequences of good intentions.
Mook...........your 106 feels like 184.....and Yuma's 120 feels like 109
Edited for stupidity.
Economic Left/Right: -6.50
Social Libertarian/ Authoritative: -6.87
nova - if everyone reads your links and takes the courses, who's going to be left follow the Glodman meme...
Oh, I see. So you're part of the anti-meme too...!?
Wow, so pervasive.
C
(Wow 2, KFP plays the race card. Ooooh.)
But understand, school funding is entirely divorced from local property tax revenues and has been since 1978. - RD
I don't see that here in Oregon at all, or in any other place I've lived. Here, the rich (not many) get the best, the middle class gets middling, and the working class gets shafted. Test scores and college admissions correlating closely with income levels.
flamina and I agreed on my poll......its a tough road.
sorry Im :nytol>
Since we were making poker analogies... just because the gamble doesn't pay off, doesn't mean it was a dumb bet.
I myself considered taking out a HELOC on my paid-for apartment in order to invest the money in the stock market. When stocks were paying close to 10% a year, my pad was appreciating at 5-15% a year, and Uncle Sugar was willing to pay a third of my mortgage interest to make exactly that play... well, let's just say I'm amazed I DIDN'T do it. I thought about it many, many times. Since my home is worth only about 100K on a good day, it seemed like it wasn't worth the trouble.
Reminds me of how in grad school I couldn't figure out why I shouldn't take out the maximum Stafford & Perkins guaranteed student loans even though I was getting a stipend and so didn't need them. I could have invested in the market and paid back the principal the day my post-grad grace period ended. I was in grad school from 1999-2005... and I can tell you I still feel like a sucker for not doing it.
Also edited for stupidity:)
Another in the Dalai Lama's neighborhood: (-6.00,-7.13).
KFP - c'mon, let's see whatcha got? They're in on this too?
C
From Reuters:
Is history repeating itself at Goldman Sachs?
In late 2006, Goldman shrewdly began backing away from the residential mortgage market. With little fanfare, the firm began aggressively hedging its exposure to home loans, in particular mortgages to borrowers with shaky credit histories.
This savvy and somewhat stealthy strategy enabled Goldman to pawn off lots of its soon-to-be toxic mortgages and mortgage-backed securities on other institutions — forcing those foolhardy speculators to pay the price when the subprime market blew up.
And much to everyone else’s chagrin, Goldman even made money off the housing meltdown when some of its hedges — specifically a bet that a subprime mortgage index would plunge — paid off handsomely.
It appears Goldman is following a similar script with U.S. commercial real estate, the next big asset class that many believe is on the verge of disaster.
Reuters.com
Another in the Dalai Lama's neighborhood: (-6.00,-7.13). - pd130
I think Gandhi is in there too. I always liked him better. The DL creeps me out.
If you use a simple rule that your home never goes up or down in value until the day you sell it. The picture that most of America has crumbles. Just like we have today. Also shows how property tax is mark to wishing. Taxation on wealth that does not exist.
Mook...........your 106 feels like 184.....and Yuma's 120 feels like 109
Fortunately, up where I am now we don't hit 100 degrees more than once or twice a year - heck, it hasn't even hit 90 yet this year. But yeah, spent 10 years in the Southeast and those 100-deg, 100%-humidity days are a killer.
But 120 degrees?! The hottest I've ever experienced was driving from SD to Vegas a few years ago, in August (it seemed like a good idea at the time). We stopped for lunch in Barstow and the air temp was 114.
I opened the car door and it felt like I literally got punched in the lungs.
I don't care what the humidity is, I couldn't even imagine 120.
OT,
Charles E. F. Millard, head of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, is under investigation for inappropriate contacts with Wall Street firms seeking to obtain lucrative contracts.
Goldman Sachs, JPM and Blackrock are the offending firms.
Wooing a Federal Agency With Billions to Invest - NY Times
It appears Goldman is following a similar script with U.S. commercial real estate.. ' HG
Well, yeah. GS must have a few grad student minions reading blogs like CR. And scanning all the other data cycles. I mean, that's a given.
Hus more likely to make peace with?
toking, semi-working, Retired Broad Band Bourgeosie
an Enrolled agent of the IRS
or
seriously, this time Im
Why would you relate Goldman Sachs to Jews?
CR, just saw this dustup with ZH. Id say that hethe reference to some blogger is a bit of a slight. Yves had invited him to be a guest poster in her absence and his pet peave boix trading has made its way to the Senate and legislation (proposed) faster than anything I have seen in years on the web. That said, i didnt read the mash up butit does seem nitpicking a source for some sentiment survey seems petty and unlike you.
On housing I don;t know if you have addressed this but it seems like talking about prices is the sound of one hand clapping. The problem is debt not house prices or LEhman or any other sympton. The problem is DEBT. Denninger gets that right. Hussman get it right. I realize this is a housing blog, but it must be said that house prices and volumesa are a fractile of the productive economy. Residential structures is what % of GDP? Quite small actually. The loss of "equity" isn;t coming back no matter how hard they try., And even if it stabalizes, as MISh pointed out today at 2.4% GDP growth structural unemplopyment is 10+% and not going down. Throw in coninued groveling and no political will to change a broken arcitecture and you have congoing wage pressure. Then as Denninger or the Fed site points out, Conumer debt hasn;t gone down very much at all relative to peak ($50bn or so of $2.5T. So taken all this toget her with the Fed's promis to keep rates lower for longer whcih crushed the that transmission mechism for productive savings, what exactly is going to enable the consumer (outside og govt printing) to work their way out of the hole? The whole housing is going to lead us out of this is delusional CNBC agitprop.
Naw, I think it's that the idea that the government has been infiltrated by a band of desperadoes bent on manipulating the government for financial gain is too painful to bear
-1.75, -2.51.
And when you connect all the dots, you should get a Mortgage Pig, right?
Fed annointed Nomura another primary dealer either today or yesterday. Whew just in time
Mr.Goldman and Mr. Sachs are long gone. They did not found or become a publicly traded corporation.
Do you consider your Levi's a Jewish product?
But understand, school funding is entirely divorced from local property tax revenues and has been since 1978.
. . . what was the reason for this radical shift in funding? The idea of school districts paying for their own schools locally was racist.
Sure, Rob Dawg, let's all adopt your bizarre view of the world and your rewriting of history.
Try Proposition 13 for what happened to California K-12. It passed in 1978, remember?
@picosec:
I can't believe you left me out. I think I was one of the first (recently) to post my score. I think it was something like Economic: -5.00 and Liberty: around -3.5
Goldman Sachs has never had the slightest connection to the Jewish religion. Is Morgan Stanley representative of Christian attitudes?
Uh oh. I went down that exact same path with Rob myself, sportsfan. He is right that there was another thing that happened at that time: Serrano v. Priest. Serrano v. Priest - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It's a complex picture.
Matt Taibbi's colorful take on Goldman Sacks..."a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money".
picosec
i swear im a conservative democrat... oh well whatever
Your political compass
Economic Left/Right: -2.50
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.18
Also edited for stupidity.
Hey S : "I realize this is a housing blog"? C'mon. There's a lotta macro, fiscal, prudential, risk, and (weeps with wracking tears) gender economics going on here.
C
For your information, Goldman is a German name. Levi is a Hebrew name. Why don't you associate Goldman with German culture?
from the wiki cited above:
The legislative response to Serrano I and Serrano II was significantly constrained by California Proposition 13 (1978), and an initial property-tax-based solution was replaced by a funding scheme that relied more heavily on state (as opposed to district) revenue, which has remained in effect, with occasional adjustments, ever since.
Not that that's definitive, since Cali is majorly messed up in financial terms. FWIW, I think New Hampshire has a pretty decent system, for a property tax based scheme. Australia funds at the state level, which seems to work well for them. But Rob Dawg is right about one thing, money won't fix things if it's not a money issue, and the lack of serious economic education seems to be almost universal.
picosec
Economic Left/Right: -2.75
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.10
OT NOISE ALERT:
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) — Chicago White Sox ace Mark Buehrle has set a major league record by retiring 45 straight batters.
Coming off a perfect game in his last start against Tampa Bay, Buehrle retired the first 17 Minnesota Twins batters to surpass the record of 41 straight set by and San Francisco's Jim Barr in 1972 and tied by teammate Bobby Jenks, a reliever, in 2007.
Buehrle retires 45 straight to set MLB record, but Twins prevail - USATODAY.com
Hey yogi - do we then get to associate German culture with the refs last weekend to allegations and rumors of Landesbank problems and Austrian banks?
Cool.
C
Edited for stupidity.
bakke was in 1978 as well. California must have been quite the place in 1978...
Do you consider your Levi's a Jewish product?
they do have deep pockets, almost down to your elbows....
I left Cali in 1978, never looked back.
We don't hate Cleveland, but since it is downstream of norkA's Botzum Sewage Plant we do remember to flush twice.
Deadly.
What association does Goldman Sachs have to Judaism other than the founder in 1865 happening to be Jewish?
What association does Goldman Sachs have to Judaism other than the founder in 1865 happening to be Jewish?
Oh christ. Is the board going down the anti-semitic hole again?
Kung Fu it sounds like you have some serious stereotyped preconceptions.
City Buys One-Way Tickets Home for Homeless Families
The Bloomberg administration, which has struggled with a seemingly intractable problem of homelessness for years, has paid for more than 550 families to leave the city since 2007, as a way of keeping them out of the expensive shelter system, which costs $36,000 a year per family. All it takes is for a relative elsewhere to agree to take the family in.
I understand NYC rent is out of this world, but $3K/month per family?
The 401k-fretting masses are still somehow convinced that the 401k will make them all rich one day. So when they hear of Goldman Sucks' profits rising, they're happy, even though they're being screwed by the Goldman blood funnel. But when the masses find out the 401k is just another Ponzi scheme, the anger will bubble to the surface then look out....
Oh christ. Is the board going down the anti-semitic hole again? - jp
That's hilarious... But anyway, the last time this got started Ken and CR actually handed out some banishments.
I'm just glad it's not the usual misogyny hole. A refreshing change of pace!
hmmm
economically im a neighbor to homegnome and blackhalo
auth lib near gabijan and poic
but hey Rob
Dawg we aint that far apart after all?
flaminia, lots of things happened in 1978, the year before and the year after.
Rob Dawg's thesis that the deterioration in California primary and secondary education resulted because some people have tried to minimize (because we can't eliminate) the effects of racism in our society is the kind of bullshit that I could hear from Hannity, Limbaugh, O'Reilly or any of the other hatemongers who sell fear every day to people too stupid to question their motives.
I expect more here from long term commenters.
OK, my scores, hey I thought I would be fitting more up with Stalin and the other guy.
Economic Left/Right: -3.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -2.87
Some serious Freudian slippage at work...
I'm just glad it's not the usual misogyny hole.
Must... not... comment... or... I... will... get... banned...
CCLT - oh c'mon. Please. The stuff on women and religious affilations on this board just isn't helpful. Your commment is on the latter, there have been others on the former.
I'm just reminding people that CR has acted previously on some of this stuff. I'm not sending him "please ban, I'm upset" messages and nor do I intend to. We're probably all big boys and girls, and we know there are bruising debates elsewhere on this. But that's the point - elsewhere!
Back to the point at hand, perhaps?
C
And which point was that, C?
The one way tickets used to be incoming to the Port Authority Bus Terminal. The City must legally provide shelter for the homeless. The 36k probably includes associated social services. The lowest rent for a habitable (tiny) 2-room apartment is probably 1200.
Oh, right. Home ATM . . . .
Oh, right. Home ATM . . . . - f
Yes, indeedy.
So: does any data gathering group track how the money was spent? Is there any way to know for sure whether it just went out the yin yang or was spent on something (marginally) useful?
The only question left to ponder is how much longer this level of corruption can continue without political collapse?
As was pointed out well on Maher's show this week, the degree to which this systemic corruption is totally in control, is illustrated by the vote against funding the Raptor fighter jet. Here is a vastly expensive weapons system, not wanted by the Pentagon (!) or even Dick Cheney (!!) yet the thing still got 40 votes in the Senate.
Then, we are told, this a great victory for commonsense and appropriate oversight!
economic -2.62 social -2.21
Yes, I really opened myself up for that one. Oh Christ, did I type that out loud?
What I mean to say was, I'm just really happy not be at the other end of the stick again.
No... wait.
Hell, I'm going to have change my handle again...
That reminds me, I heard Black Star Ranch takes in vagrants. I must send the mayor a note.
.
My LL (who has a NOD filed) bought in the mid 1990's. The mortgages on the property now are about 3 times the original purchase price.
Yet, I have little doubt they will get bailed out.
Have fun, folks. Catch you later.
"How in Glod's name do people convince themselves they can afford to spend 35% to 40% of their pretax income on house payments? "
Housing only goes up. Welcome to ponzinomics. 2.5% YoY GDP growth for 5 years and the deficit wipes us out.
counterpointer-
It was a joke in reply to yogiC's ?..nothing more, nothing less....wasn't made to offend anyone......maybe I watch too much george carlin..I have never in my 3 years of posting comments here started anything in regards to religious, race or women...I dont have the time....I'm done here...see ya all down the road..
Best wishs to all of you, here's hoping you and your families remain in good health, good spirits and live the best of lives....
Not so much a joke as a slur. A written joke should be clever.
Thnx, Yogi.............."[NY] City must legally provide shelter for the homeless."
......and our town provides space at the rodeo grounds for a cardboard box.
-4.25 -3.18
Yep, me and Ghandi are like twins.
-5.97 -7.00
and the wife about -4.9 -4.9