Case-Shiller House Price Seasonal Adjustment and Comparison to Stress Tests
Submitted by
CalculatedRisk on Tue, 07/28/2009 - 7:07am (187 comments)
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snark aside - why use adjustments when the entire methodology is based on real prices of the same unit?
So, is this already baked into the market? Or will we see a nice bump? Things are flat today...
HollywoodHack - I'd guess that the same house doesn't always still sell in the same month, and there is higher, predictable seasonal demand and therefore price shifts.
I think it might be interesting to run the same two data series (SA and NSA) again, this time using YOY only. The picture might be more realistic--and sobering.
HollywoodHack, say a house was sold in December 2004, and is now resold in May 2005. Those are about the two extremes for seasonal price changes.
Prices are the strongest in the Spring and the weakest in the Winter, so the seasonal adjustment is an attempt to remove the difference between buying in the Winter and buying in the Spring.
best to all
but I believe the seasonal adjustment is insufficient and prices will decline faster in the Fall.
I agree CR. I think this October through February is going to be a new definition of brutal.
Of course, the REIC isn't mentioning we are near a seasonal high. Oh no... they want everyone (including my wife) to think the market has corrected. But wait for this Fall. I expect the stock market, housing prices, and employment to all head south at a faster pace during those months. Now if only I could predict which week the stock market would dive...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Repost: Pigged
$20m holiday home at Blue Heron Farm suits Barack Obama to a tee
$20m holiday home at Blue Heron Farm suits Barack Obama to a tee - Times Online
But he feels your pain.....change you can believe in.
more excellent work, and another of the various reasons I come here
gawd hep me, I loves dis place
oh, i get that. i just see CS as mercifully free of these attempts to arbitrarily monkey with data. one too many adjustments, and you end up with pure garbage like the U3 or CPI.
Pavel,
Did you catch the influenza update from the UK Dept of Health (link I posted yesterday)?
Obama looks like a young Fred Sanford (Redd Fox) now.
Ciao
MS
thanks CR.
others would prefer that you be bearish to the very end, but by displaying restraint and balance in many of your posts, when you come out with a potentially controversial statement like this, well, we know that there must be a reason.
this summer will be quite the lull, and I would argue that the low end will actually move in a rather unsticky fashion (due to foreclosures and resales). the result is that CS will likely show a stronger rebound than usual in the summer (NSA) and will then pay the piper in the fall. perhaps just another way of saying what CR just said, but I do believe it bears repeating.
the 'recovery' in home prices is a long way off.
Case-Shiller: Spring Home Price Bounce Erased in May | Seattle Bubble — News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.
Post 6 in the comments has the city-by-city breakdown.
"Now if only I could predict which week the stock market would dive... "
If past is prologue one must consider October, a week or ten days on either side of Halloween.
Scary stuff...
Caught the HBO documentary last night "The Yes Men Fix the World".
Serf Allen Greenspend was a part of their NYT spoof on the street.
Where the heck is he now? Is he under another avatar?
Enjoyed the heck out of his stuff. Still hope to one day participate in one of the Billionaire's Ball thingies.
Pigged
yagij, thanks for the reminder.
A follow up on Iceland: not so dire as you might think . . .
Honestly, all they trashed was their fiat currency and credit score. Some people tend to do it every 7-10 years in some countries. I'm not surprised that people have found a way to cope and even move forward under that kind of situation. Granted since they took the full blunt shock-n-awe of their crisis, they are much closer to a recovery compared to the lumbering zombiosauruses dragging across Asia, Europe, and North America.
Irony of ironies may be Iceland having the ability to recovery and reinflate a small bubble as more people chase yield and looking for more stable places to invest their own fiat collections.
volker the viking (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 8:16 am
"Now if only I could predict which week the stock market would dive... "
If past is prologue one must consider October, a week or ten days on either side of Halloween.
Scary stuff...
Until everyone expects that and herd behavior dictates they all try to get out before,... recursions upon recursions. We will get the biggies back after Labor day and they'll check to see if there any any nickels worth picking up in front of the steam roller but my gut says middle of September on bad news or first week of October if the hopium cloud lingers.
from previous thread:
sbarrkum (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:00 am
picosec
One more data point to the political compass.
-3.1 and -2.6 (anyone in the crowd that had +ve axis values ?).
Also Briggs Myers type: ENTP
Wonder if that correlates with the Political Compass
I was +0.5 on horizontal axis and -2 on vertical axis (near the center)
but my gut says middle of September on bad news or first week of October if the hopium cloud lingers.
How about a CR shorting pool?
sounds like we have a poll subject
Guess the date for TEOTWAWKI
fwiw: Those CR-patented Month-by-Month cascading histograms are the best way to look at seasonal data.
I'd love to know if there is a standard for seasonal correction, cuz I doubt the financial community is well-versed in fourier series.
How about a CR shorting pool?
Already in one, being run by GS. They're beating me like a redhaired stepchild right now.
Well, Eric, we won't put you in charge.
We'll weep for you tho.
Consumer confidence:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
You seen the news
On 'Obeyme's big flap?
He called the cops stupid,
And some other crap
And while I can't prove
Conspiracy, per se,
It's all part of a plot
To take our freedoms away
By making it seem
We should replace the cops
With communist troops
Running "black ops"
From con-trails to aliens
In area fifty-one,
To secret headquarters
Behind the sun
Where the powers that be
Pull all the strings
To make us their slaves
To do all the things
Necessary to just
Keep them alive,
'Cause without us they
Couldn't even survive.
By means of the deficit
And the national debt
Our lives are controlled,
By foreigners, yet.
And the document used
To enslave the whole earth
Was a doctored-up fake
Certificate of Birth!
But we know the truth
And can never be fooled,
And no so-called proof,
(Even though it's been ruled
Admissible in court,
And certified by a judge)
Will ever remove
Our deep-seated grudge,
The origins of which
Largely do stem
From losing the election
To one of "them".
Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:24 am
but my gut says middle of September on bad news or first week of October if the hopium cloud lingers.
How about a CR shorting pool?
IIRC, October has been a bad month over the years. 1929, 1987, 2008-
Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 8:24 am
reply ignore user
but my gut says middle of September on bad news or first week of October if the hopium cloud lingers.
How about a CR shorting pool?
Shorting? PNC Aug/Sep/Nov 25.00 puts.
N.B. Not investment advice, no position, for entertainment purposes only, yadda, yadda.
Seasonal adjustment is both a supply and a demand phenomenon. However, Federal, state, and local loan modifications, moratoria, incentives, and tax code changes are messing with the dynamics.
As I mentioned on the prior thread, at least in Dallas sales prices are being withheld on a large nonrandom selection of homes. For Dallas, not only has regulation changed the dynamics, withheld data is making analysis difficult and questionable.
Cinco-X :
Thats not much of a positive. I was looking for a more Right/Hitler type.
sbarrkum
What is the exact relationship between the Case Schiller index and house prices in an area? If i take a house prices in a particular neighborhood, can I compute possible values of the new house price based on the index?
I have been looking at the houses from last year, and found that house prices have bottomed somewhere in Jan/Feb. This is limited to the locations that i am searching and the price range. It is quite possible that we can see a dip again. But, for now, as i can see the bottom is in Jab/Feb.
One reason i can think of is, rate of foreclosures reduced when the interest rates are artificially lowered during the start of the summer.
I am new to all this housing crap, so i might be way off..
Anyone expecting a defense of DJIA 9k?
IIRC, October has been a bad month over the years. 1929, 1987, 2008-
If we did a shorting pool, we would have to slice up October in a more complicated way than suprime MBS's!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Question: In 2009 summer, how do we get a 5% from composite 10 nsa? Any simple explaination? thanks.
Nate-
Of course......it's all about psychology...if it does go below it won't stay there for very long.
Ciao
MS
NateTG (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:37 am replyIgnore userAnyone expecting a defense of DJIA 9k?
expecting a defense of Treasury offerings
"However I think the seasonal factor might be insufficient during the current period."
Quite frankly, it looks to me like the seasonal factor hasn't smoothed the seasonal discrepancies too much for the entire decade.
My observation is that, at least in the Minneapolis area, "seasonal variation" is sort of a misleading concept. Everybody lists stuff just before June. The good stuff sells, the bad stuff lingers... by mid-winter the sellers of what remains are highly motivated, but the product they have for sale does not compare with what went in the summer. So, what you are seeing is not true seasonal variation of equal products, it is an artifact of the fact that there is a prime selling season in this area.
"expecting a defense of Treasury offerings"
Ah, yeah. 2 year auction results coming up...
sbarrkum (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 8:35 am
Cinco-X :
Thats not much of a positive. I was looking for a more Right/Hitler type.
sbarrkum
Dawg and TJ both also got +0.50 Left/Right. The same as Hitler. The person you are seeking to vilify is the Sainted Maggie Thatcher who is both Authoritarian and Right.
That the Test choses to put people like Nelson Mandella and Ghandi, Hitler and Thatcher as their examples reveals the bias of the test. No one here has scored more "Right" than the three 0.50s mentioned. Note that +0.50 is more left than every US Senate state composite score. Fun, but deeply flawed.
What is the exact relationship between the Case Schiller index and house prices in an area?
None.
They have nothing to do with each other.
Take a name-
Depending on how much you trash the dollar, you could defend 9k. The bigger trigger event for Crash 2.0 could be a failed T-bill auction. Unless those of us on this board feel like buying up all of the Treasuries Timmy has for sale this year. I checked and personally I'm a little short.
The political poll test had some pretty poorly worded and leading questions IMO.
my gut says middle of September on bad news or first week of October if the hopium cloud lingers.
As BO poll numbers continue to slide I'm reminded of Rupert Murdoch's prediction a few weeks ago that the MSM would turn on him by end of the year.
Frankly, by next year I think BO will have as much credibility regarding the economy as Bush did - towards the end of his term - regarding Iraq.
Goldman Sachs: Buy U.S. Steel
Goldman Sachs: Buy U.S. Steel - MarketBeat - WSJ
Goldman Sachs: Buy U.S. Steel
High-profit front-running opportunity identified!
"The bigger trigger event for Crash 2.0 could be a failed T-bill auction."
That will not happen.
Indirect bidders take 68% of 52-week bills
Repost: Pigged Smile
$20m holiday home at Blue Heron Farm suits Barack Obama to a tee
But he feels your pain.....change you can believe in.
From the article:
"No deal has yet been struck on the property, but the rental agreement being negotiated has reportedly been split into three separate leases: one to be held by the Obamas — and paid for out of their own pockets — one by the Secret Service, and a third by the White House, which will be sending a large entourage to Martha’s Vineyard to accompany the President.
snip
The Obamas are reported to be determined to pay their way — unlike the Clintons, who stayed at Martha’s Vineyard regularly during their years at the White House but who were always put up by other people and thus stayed rent-free. "
So you're whingeing about something that hasn't yet happened and where the President would be paying out of pocket? Where did you want him to stay, in the Rose garden trying to not pass laws while Congress is out of session?
In your doom bunker/fraidy hole?
Get bent.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:46 am replyIgnore userTake a name-
Depending on how much you trash the dollar, you could defend 9k. The bigger trigger event for Crash 2.0 could be a failed T-bill auction. Unless those of us on this board feel like buying up all of the Treasuries Timmy has for sale this year. I checked and personally I'm a little short.
Ben's got that covered...for now. Next FY should be interesting. $1.8 T to plug the hole plus rolling over existing debt. Approx. $200b hitting the market every month.
Volker-
Why won't that happen? (I noticed our Viking likes to respond in one sentence or less)
Everytime I see 'Case Schiller' index, I misread it as 'Casey Serin'. Then I would think the index is a measure of how much real estate he's leveraging. (by the chart, it looks like he's making a comeback)
U.S. Treasury sells 4-week bills at 0.13%
What did GS say? Blue Horseshoe Loves Anacott Steel?? Do they just do this crap in the open now?
pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:28 am
Consumer confidence:
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found...
I guess it may be finally starting to sink in. It seems as though we're starting to see more of the MSM shill starting to sound like the folks here-
Approx. $200b hitting the market every month.
Would love to see a graph of this over the last several years.
Volker-
Because theortically if that won't happen we can basically have free health care, alternative energy, and ponies for everyone I guess.
Rose """"gardem"""" trying to not pass laws while Congress is out of session?
In your doom bunker/fraidy hole?
Get bent.
Learn to spell then get back to me. ...oh and bend this.
JP (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:57 am replyIgnore userApprox. $200b hitting the market every month.
Would love to see a graph of this over the last several years.
Pull up the Fed's balance sheet over the last several years
Bid-to-cover ratio: $206,747,648,100/$27,000,490,900= 3.95
EPIC FAIL
Ciao
MS
Bid-to-cover on 4-week bill sale is 3.54
The Associated Press/Yahoo link above included this gem . . .
According to a widely watched housing price index, home prices in May posted their first monthly increase since the summer of 2006, indicating prices may finally be stabilizing.
So much for AP.
"Because theortically if that won't happen we can basically have free health care, alternative energy, and ponies for everyone I guess."
I want a pinto pony. Think about it, what must happen for a failure to happen? Why would it happen?
sbarrkum (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:35 am
Cinco-X :
Thats not much of a positive. I was looking for a more Right/Hitler type. Wink
sbarrkum
That was more for picosec; I hope he'll do a tabulation.
BTW, I doubt you'll find many upper right quadrants here on this group, though as it turns out, my 16 year old daughter is in there. I'm trying to educate her about the ills of being an authoritarian, but like many her age, she thinks she has all of the answers, and the rest of us should just shut up and listen
Not being in the US I would love to see what is happening with all of the stimulus money. Less potholes I assume?
I just get this feeling it is all going up someone's nose, or the bureaucratic equivalent.
Pull up the Fed's balance sheet over the last several years
I wouldn't recommend that. It will scare the sh#t out of you.
"Less potholes I assume?"
MUAHAHAHAHAHA
Fed Balance Sheet Chart.
Fed Balance Sheet Expansion: Some Takeaways - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com
Google is your friend.
Credit Easing Policy Tools ::
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
neil (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:38 am
IIRC, October has been a bad month over the years. 1929, 1987, 2008-
If we did a shorting pool, we would have to slice up October in a more complicated way than suprime MBS's!
Got Popcorn?
Neil
You'd probably want to look for the "double/triple witching hour" dates and put them in the 1st tranche./
"Think about it" - Volker...
Well, instead of the Chinese directing money into our Treasury they just might direct it into their own stimulus for once. That's a start. Oh, and Japan's new incoming government giving us the middle finger about buying our debt. Those are the two things that come to mind.
Pull up the Fed's balance sheet over the last several years
Doesn't tell us what the treasury or Chinese are rolling over.
Hollywood Hack-
That's right....you're likely from Cali. I went to Sana'a, Yemen afew weeks ago (per capita income $2,700 per year....preview of California in 5 years) and there were less potholes than LA. I'm not even exaggerating....the streets were better paved in Sana'a.
"they just might direct it into their own stimulus for once"
yeah, I was going over that one a couple of nights ago here...
of the many disturbing things coming from the 'trust the gubmint to make it all better' crowd, this blind faith that the mercantile antics of china and other CBs live in some parallel universe where their exports never slow and there is zero political pressure to use some of that surplus for there own domestic agenda is one of the stupider and more dangerous ones....
volker not know
volker cynic
volker think nothing changes until it does
volker make four lines
Volker-
Wow you really did work at the Fed.
poic (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:48 am
The political poll test had some pretty poorly worded and leading questions IMO.
Sometimes that's done to keep folks from gaming the results. They'll ask the same question over and over in different, misleading ways to get at the real answer. Test design is an art, and done poorly, can lead to really misleading results. Read their FAQ; you may still disagree, but they have their rational.
antigua, guatemala successfully got most of their power lines underground a couple of decades ago. we're still doing better in the water department, however. this year.
"...the streets were better paved in Sana'a."
Of course, you would know.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 11:51 am
Goldman Sachs: Buy U.S. Steel
High-profit front-running opportunity identified!
So THAT's who they'll be shorting next!
Volker, when was the last night you were in Sana'a?
Witching hours have been non-events for a while for whatever reason, but the trading days after that are a different story.
Oct. 15 Equity, index, cash-settled currency and treasury/interest rate options
expiration date1
Oct. 16 A.M. settled index options cease trading
Oct. 17 Expiring equity, P.M. settled index options and treasury/interest rate
option classes cease trading. Expiring cash-settled currency options
cease trading at 12:00 p.m. EST.
Volker treats me like I'm Jas Jain or something.
Comrade Alexei Mikhailovich (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:09 pm
Witching hours have been non-events for a while for whatever reason, but the trading days after that are a different story.
I was thinking back to the Crash of '87 (which was awhile back, though I remember it vividly), and IIRC, it was tangentially associated with a "triple witching hour". That said, you seem like you know a bit about these things; perhaps you'll help neil "divvy" the betting pool-
Thank God there's such a wide diversity of opinion here.
1) "Obama good, Bush Evil"
or
2) "Bush evil, Obama good!
What aspect of the seasonal adjustment is now insufficient?
Interesting even if OT:
China's New 'Great Wall' Built on Easy Money Speculation and Toxic Debt: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance
Excerpt:
Because policymakers are pumping money like mad to prevent unemployment and social unrest, Gamble believes China's economy may very well be a bubble set to burst. With $1.2 trillion of new loans made since November there's "basically a wall of money that's not going anywhere," Gamble says, suggesting real estate speculation and bad lending are rampant.
I believe I'll buy even more GS puts today.
Broward, you left out:
3) Bush evil, Obama evil (I'm partial to this one myself)
and of course 4), but there's nobody here who'd go for that one...
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:16 pm
Thank God there's such a wide diversity of opinion here.
1) "Obama good, Bush Evil"
or
2) "Bush evil, Obama good!
Where does Obama = Bush fall in that scale?
sillythings (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:17 pm
What aspect of the seasonal adjustment is now insufficient?
All of them; it's different this time
/snark (I remember this time
Cinco,
It used to be a big deal, but it seems over the last few years whenever it's mentioned that day turns out to be a big nothingburger. Maybe it's the high volume trading smoothing out things due to volume, I don't know. But usually action the following Monday picks up in either direction as folks decide on their macro repositioning.
FOMC meetings are Sept. 22-3 & Nov. 3-4
You could see a repositioning between 3rd week Opex and that latter FOMC meeting.
2009 Opex calendar WARNING: PDF
5) Bush evil, Obama slightly less evil
"Where does Obama = Bush fall in that scale?"
near Uranus
Comrade Coinz (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:21 pm
5) Bush evil, Obama slightly less evil
Give him some time
Cinco X-
It will be interesting to watch China's demographic time bomb blow up over the next several years. Saw something on the BBC about how Shanghai is trying to encourage families there to have multiple children, realizing that by 2020 30% of the population will be over 60. I'm not an expert but it seems to be those are not the ideal age profile to build an export-driven economy.
And over the next 10 years they'll be creating all of this overcapacity with their stimulus....
And gosh with a major crash in China who then will be buying our debt?
The Fed balance sheet.
And gosh with a major crash in China who then will be buying our debt?
The End Of The Old World Order As We Know It?
Honestly, what is the difference between us and Zimbabwe? We at least hide the printing press behind the 30-40% of treasuries still purchased outside of the Fed?
Broward, I am of the opinion 'Bush Stupid, Obama Ignorant'.
And both are/were played by the real power brokers so it doesn't matter anyway.
It appears that this fall will be quite the rollercoaster.
Fear the Fall
Homedebtors all
Once and for all
Hear the bottom call
~miser
Re: Thank God there's such a wide diversity of opinion here.
How about Republicans are mean fascist scum, Democrats are guilt-ridden socialist scum, Americans get exactly what they've wanted for the last 50 years, (oh) and libertarians are semi-autistic children (which causes them to be mean so they almost always vote with the fascists – which I find incredibly humorous, fascists libertarians).
That's diverse.
“New home sales increase because of steep price cuts.”
But that would be honest reporting.
977,000 Mortgages in California are Toxic Waste: The Misleading Headline Numbers and New Home Sales Increase because of a $13,000 Price cut. » Dr. Housing Bubble Blog
"Difference between US and Zimbabwe"
About 6,000 nuclear weapons, a kickass navy, and the reserve currency. I would also throw in the LA Lakers and Tila Tequila, but that is my bias. Anything I'm missing?
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:22 pm
It will be interesting to watch China's demographic time bomb blow up over the next several years. ......
And over the next 10 years they'll be creating all of this overcapacity with their stimulus....
Good points; additionally, China's current capacity (IMHO) is problematic for any recovery, and if they're going to create more, they better start creating some demand to go with it.
So if we say that China/US relationship mirrors the US/England relationship back in 1920s, did China already have its black friday? (the height was Oct '07 at 5562. at Oct '08 it's 1720. now it's 3008) if not then, it sounds like the upcoming October might be it. I wonder if there is a stock chart plotting China and US now, vs US and England then.
Where does Obama = Bush fall in that scale?
All three are the same opinion.
The difference is which one is your personal buddy.
Now for something completely different:
Blue M&Ms linked to reducing spine injury
Guess I need to find out who makes compound Brilliant Blue G...next they will validate Tang is actually the nectar of the Gods...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:27 pm
"Difference between US and Zimbabwe"
About 6,000 nuclear weapons, a kickass navy, and the reserve currency. I would also throw in the LA Lakers and Tila Tequila, but that is my bias. Anything I'm missing?
American football
I've shifted to the Left.
Economic Left/Right: -3.88
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -1.44
INTJ for correlation purposes.
I read the other day on another post here some anecdotal about a Chinese cabbie who had an I/O loan on his house and his hack. He was reported to have said he is stuffing his mattress with all of his earnings in expectations of ruthless default in a couple of years.
I would like to hear more of this sort of anecdotal. If the cabbies in China have figured their escape, then we are further into the chute than any might know....
Goldman insists they have a Chinese Wall. Sounds archaic.
JP asks, "I'd love to know if there is a standard for seasonal correction, cuz I doubt the financial community is well-versed in fourier series".
No, there isn't a standard, and reasonable people could easily see that some seasonality calculations should change. Here are some examples.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:28 pm
Where does Obama = Bush fall in that scale?
All three are the same opinion.
The difference is which one is your personal buddy.
Volker says it's near my anus
Cinco X-
Yeah; my roommate here in Dubai for lived in China for 7 years and built part of the HK AIrport (Kai Tak replacement). Was saying it is going to be really tough to stimulate domestic demand with tens of millions out of work and rioting (roiters tend not to spend much) and turn savers to spenders when there is no clear economically feasible way to get health care for much of the population.
Man, is a total disaster in the works in China.
Political Compass Poll Results (ordered by Economic Left/Rightedness)
Go to: The Political Compass for test and comparison to public figures
*
..................................................... Economic................. Social
...................................................... Left/Right.............. Libert/Auth
1 currency now............................... -6.0.......................... -6.7
picosec............................................ -4.8......................... -4.6
JP.................................................. -4.8........................ -4.3
gabijan.............................................. -4.8....................... -3.0
poic................................................ -4.4........................ -3.3
Comrade Alexei Miklailovich.............. -3.8....................... -3.6
dryfly................................................. -3.4...................... -3.5
sbarrkum........................................... -3.1....................... -2.6
Blackhalo.......................................... -2.3....................... -4.2
Black Star Ranch............................... -1.6....................... -2.1
Plantagenent...................................... -0.5...................... -4.2
Rob Dawg........................................... 0.5....................... -3.6
Cinco-X................................................ 0.5....................... -2.0
TJ & the Bear..................................... 0.8...................... -3.6
Comrade DazedandC.onfused............ 1.6...................... -5.1
*
*
Mean................................................ -2.4....................... -3.8
Median............................................. -3.1....................... -3.6
Max..................................................... 1.6....................... -2.0
Min.................................................... -6.0...................... -6.7
"Man, is a total disaster in the works in China."
And the human cost times four.
China is gonna pull a Russia in about 5-10 years.
About 6,000 nuclear weapons, a kickass navy, and the reserve currency. I would also throw in the LA Lakers and Tila Tequila, but that is my bias. Anything I'm missing?
I mean between our gov't's financial offerings.
Playing the military card can be shaky in this game of paper. If I recall correctly, having a watered down currency of trade can turn a "kickass" military against its political power structure. Back in the Roman days, it was having a purer coin of silver and/or gold that could win the army's favor. I wonder how long it will take to water down our currency before our own people start looking elsewhere for financial aid.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:31 pm
Cinco X-
Yeah; my roommate here in Dubai for lived in China for 7 years and built part of the HK AIrport (Kai Tak replacement). Was saying it is going to be really tough to stimulate domestic demand with tens of millions out of work and rioting (roiters tend not to spend much) and turn savers to spenders when there is no clear economically feasible way to get health care for much of the population.
Man, is a total disaster in the works in China.
Their capacity is a problem for us as well. Why would anyone want to create a job here when they can be so easily undercut by a competitor in China, but without jobs here, how can we stimulate demand?
Does Warren Buffet really want to be known as a large owner of shares of a company some say may be "evil"?
Re: difference is which one is your personal buddy
Of course they are different. Assuming that Bush = Cheney (not sure Bush actually has any ideas other than frat boy simplicity) then you've got classic "meanness towards outsiders" (aka applied fascists).
Obama is a classic democrat: Talk the guilt to the peasants, deal with the big-boys for the graft. (aka applied American style socialism - which exists at ALL American local government organizations)
And assuming “personal buddy” means "dumbass peasant worship of authority": well THAT’S required for any mommy or daddy based party. Without dumbass worshipping peasants parties couldn’t exist.
If you were adding the myers-briggs correlation: EXTJ (X=on the border.)
Volker says it's near my anus
You'll know it when it happens.
I went to SF to escape the heat last weekend and while there I went to pier 39. I saw Lots of people, but no one was buying the crap in the stores (prices had doubled since my last visit). Even the eateries were somewhat vacant.
We took the 101 to get home and the vacant commercial buildings from SF to Gilroy was shocking! I think its funny that the FED is just now starting to express concerns about it!?!? More pain comming down the pike from what I saw over the weekend.
Oh, and BTW I heard this from a cop yesterday, we had 200 prostitutes come here to Bakersfield from San Bernadino looking for work (johns) because they could not make any money there and so far they have only rounded up 46 of them. Hard times indeed!!
"Difference between US and Zimbabwe"
US is easier to spell than Zimbobway
Use everclear instead of water when making your Tang and it is not a bad breakfast drink.For nectar of the gods try a 10 year old pezzi king cab.
Cinco-
Yeah, but if there wasn't overcapacity in China, don't you think there would just be overcapacity somewhere else (India, Brazil, Africa, etc.)
Myers Briggs: ENTP
slightly expressed extravert
moderately expressed intuitive personality
moderately expressed thinking personality
moderately expressed perceiving personality
Geez, that test has me feeling like you're never alone if you're schizophrenic. -6.25 and -5.64.
Suppose Fox News could call me if Janine Garofolo is unavailable.
Too much
when young and too much 
now that I'm older.
Not many provided Myers-Briggs.
Also more work.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 9:30 am
Goldman insists they have a Chinese Wall. Sounds archaic.
and as effective in modern warfare. Not to worry, they've updated and reinforced and now call their internal firewalls a Maginot Line.
picosec (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:33 pm
Political Compass Poll Results (ordered by Economic Left/Rightedness)
for test and comparison to public figures
Go to: The Political Compass
*
..................................................... Economic................. Social
...................................................... Left/Right.............. Libert/Auth
1 currency now............................... -6.0.......................... -6.7
Comrade DazedandC.onfused............ 1.6...................... -5.1
*
*
Mean................................................ -2.4....................... -3.8
Median............................................. -3.1....................... -3.6
Max..................................................... 1.6....................... -2.0
Min.................................................... -6.0...................... -6.7
Wow! Socialist Libertarians out the wazoo! That seems like an oxymoron
Should we alert the FBI about 1 currency now & Comrade DazedandC.onfused? They're scarin' me
Bush Lesser evil
Obama ignorant evil even worse.
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:38 pm
Cinco-
Yeah, but if there wasn't overcapacity in China, don't you think there would just be overcapacity somewhere else (India, Brazil, Africa, etc.)
Perhaps, but it'd still be a problem, unless of course it was here. /snark that last part
At least they don't call it a Glass Steagalling.
(sorry)
Yeah.
I'm the most "authortarian" guy here by far.
Bunch of libertarians in spite of occasional leftist talk.
See the huge diversity of opinion.
Myer-Briggs INFJ,close to Gandhi! did he like .45's as much as I do?
INTj
notafriend_of_uncleben (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:37 pm
we had 200 prostitutes come here to Bakersfield from San Bernadino looking for work (johns) because they could not make any money there and so far they have only rounded up 46 of them. Hard times indeed!!
Well not if they keep rounding them up!
"Bunch of libertarians in spite of occasional leftist talk."
Different axises...
Any compass scores in the sixes are just gaming the test. IMO the left right axis is at least a full point too far to the right. IOW a sufficient sample would cluster around -1.0...-0.5 or so. Lots of that may be question bias. The abortion bit. The question limited to only the life of the mother. No wriggle room for rape/incest/metal harm/ severe defects, etc.
you people I swear
Man, no wonder you guys are so angry all the time.
Totally delusional about the ability of your fellow man to run his own life.
Calling Obama ignorant is like calling Bush stupid. You can't GET to the top of either party by being ignorant OR stupid. There has to attributes that get anybody in a position of authority, who is worshipped by the masses and (more important) other wanna-be-authorities; this applies to government, corporate, or religion authority.
Bush (Cheney) and Obama might be (not sure) amoral, egotistical, scum. But NOT ignorant OR stupid.
"Should we alert the FBI ..."
Come to think of it, I can't remember any compass questions on domestic surveillance or abuse of police power in violation of the Bill of Rights.
Even Broward is afraid of Big Brother.
economic -7.9
authoritarian -8.2
INTP
i am next to gandhi
(cheers inside)
Economic Left/Right: -5.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -6.21
Economic Left/Right: -2.38
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.69
ENFJ
ENTJ
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:46 pm
Any compass scores in the sixes are just gaming the test. IMO the left right axis is at least a full point too far to the right. IOW a sufficient sample would cluster around -1.0...-0.5 or so. Lots of that may be question bias. The abortion bit. The question limited to only the life of the mother. No wriggle room for rape/incest/metal harm/ severe defects, etc.
Forcing hard choices makes for a better test. If a test asks you to rate something along an axis and provides an answer in the middle of the axis, that's what most people will choose (in a lot of cases). They want you to make a choice of whether you think it's fundamentally right or wrong, not to quibble over the details. As I said before, creating good tests is an art. BTW, I'm not picking at you; you're one of my favorite posters here.
No wriggle room for rape/incest/metal harm/ severe defects, etc.
"Inability to make hard decisions.
Does not deal well with the granularity of Life".
Maybe that is why they want a government baby sitter.
Some questions were worded terribly but there was no option to abstain. I'll debate any of my answers. No gaming here, despite my risky stock plays.
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:47 pm
"Should we alert the FBI ..."
Come to think of it, I can't remember any compass questions on domestic surveillance or abuse of police power in violation of the Bill of Rights.
Even Broward is afraid of Big Brother.
Just teasin' ya'-
Re: Totally delusional about the ability of your fellow man to run his own life
If this said "Totally delusional about the ability of your fellow man to ruin his own life" then I'd agree with you.
Libertarians always forget the most of the scum at the top got their by scamming the semi-psychotic childlike peasants (the teaming masses) at the bottom: as is PERFECTLY natural and desirable from the "survival of the fittest" philosophy of life (which I don’t necessarily disagree with, as I’m in-between - so don’t really care).
"Mean................................................ -2.4....................... -3.8"
Somethings not quite right. Am I wrong that the consensus view here would be the the correct course of actions for the TBTF would be nationalize, liquidate, re privatize? That seems less liberal or libertarian that the course of action DC is on.
WPLJ
Shorting? PNC Aug/Sep/Nov 25.00 puts.
N.B. Not investment advice, no position, for entertainment purposes only, yadda, yadda.
Deal me in.
Now we need a catchy name for our group.
Instead of Oceans 13, how about CRs 59? (# of users at this moment online)
NOTaREALmerican (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:52 pm
Libertarians always forget the most of the scum at the top got their by scamming the semi-psychotic childlike peasants (the teaming masses) at the bottom: ....
No they DON'T! That's why they want as little power concentrated at the top as possible, and as many rights retained by "the teaming masses" as is practicable!
picosec, put me down for:
Economic Left/Right: -6.25
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.08
Right down near the dalai lama. Gunga galunga.
"Oh, uh, there won't be any money, but when you die, on your deathbed, you will receive total consciousness." So I got that goin' for me, which is nice."
INFP
blame it on being an Army brat.
Goldman insists they have a Chinese Wall. Sounds archaic.
Does China have a Goldman Wall?
Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:55 pm
Shorting? PNC Aug/Sep/Nov 25.00 puts.
N.B. Not investment advice, no position, for entertainment purposes only, yadda, yadda.
Deal me in.
Now we need a catchy name for our group.
Instead of Oceans 13, how about CRs 59? (# of users at this moment online)
I could be persuaded to join in; I actually sent his advice to my e-mail to remember it. Would we use Pay-Pal to make the monetary exchanges? I'll go along with whatever name you pick
Who said, "Anarchy is great. If only everyone could agree on the rules."?
1 currency now -yogi (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/28/2009 - 12:57 pm
Who said, "Anarchy is great. If only everyone could agree on the rules."?
LOL!
---OK I came up with it myself....
One little thing first - I want to know Rob's track record. Then I'm in.
Re: No they DON'T!
YES they do, because libertarians can't comprehend that simple fact that the really smart NON autistic people (the current political insiders) will ALWAYS band together to con the team-masses OUT OF THEIR political power.
The libertarians live in a fantasy world of virtuous insiders that SOMEHOW resist the natural human urge to exclude others and – even BETTER - use the power of insider association to screw others. THAT’S what makes life FUN. If your political philosophy can't account for screwing and FUN, it ain't worth much.
The Real Unemployment Rate Hits a 68-Year High
Comparing the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “U-3” and “U-6” rates.
The Real Unemployment Rate Hits a 68-Year High | Dollars & Sense
If your political philosophy can account for screwing and FUN, it ain't worth much.
can't.
Nebraskans assert state sovereignty
Omaha.com - The Omaha World-Herald: Metro/Region - Nebraskans assert state sovereignty
This makes me want to move to Nebraska.
Ohh wait, I've been to Nebraska several times, nevermind.
I object to applying the libertarian label to progressive ideals. I think (like poic) the questions were poorly worded, and the choice of responses too limited, and, like yogi said, left out significant issues.
The libertarians live in a fantasy world of virtuous insiders that SOMEHOW resist the natural human urge to exclude others and – even BETTER - use the power of insider association to screw others.
Well, the founding fathers hoped it would happen that way. And they created the checks & balances to try to keep it that way. Wanting a good life under a good form of government is a hope, not a fantasy.
Schill,
States like Nebraska, that are not begging for a bail out can voice an opinion. The others will not piss off the DC Gods.
Bush=Cheney
Obama=Goldman Sachs.....look at his cabinet and their appointee's
The real rub is that people are very slowly figuring out that the change they voted for is only what's left of the dollar before these people destroy it
"hollah, hollah, dollar bill...y'all"
Ciao
MS
I got -.62 (Left) and -3.9 (Libertarian). Works for me.
I'm curious as to what you all think about the HFT hullabaloo. It was interesting to see the progression of that story from the blogs to the MSM to Government. Finance blogs are crucial these days, especially considering the complexity of modern finance, the state of financial journalism and the average financial IQ in Congress.
INTJ, -3.75, -2.51 (left / libertarian)
I wouldn't look too much into that test, though. The questions are framed in a way to make everyone libertarian. Wasn't it originally developed to sign up libertarians?
nyanalyst-
I don't think the HFT in itself is the problem. The real issue is that the NYSE allows GS to co-locate server's and allow them access to order's before they are executed. NASDAQ does this as well but they are a bit more open about it as you can pay a fee to get in front of people (with regards to information) so at the very least they are out in the open.
The bigger issue for all of this is that the entire system is still shown to be over-leveraged and the only thing that allows them to profit is pushing the market up-simply because they own it at much higher levels (speaking of the derivative loads).
The markets are a *ucking joke at this point and the more this type of information gets out the better however it won't amount to much since all the player's have to do is practice the fine art of plausible denial and it will go away after the next showing of 'merican idle-that;s not a typo either...
Ciao
MS
Re: Wasn't it originally developed to sign up libertarians?
WOW, perhaps the ONLY libertarian conspiracy, EVER!
Drugmakers May Fund $100 Million Ad Campaign on Health Overhaul
Drugmakers May Fund $100 Million Ad Campaign on Health Overhaul - Bloomberg.com
Damn, who else but CR would have noticed the seasonal adjustment was missing the mark, and then illustrate it clearly?
I bet no one else even alluded to this.
Why did the extreme libertarian cross the road?
None of your or your oppressive state's business, you prying bastard.
No, that's the punch line to "how many radical feminist lesbians does it take to change a light bulb?".
Because it was financed with taxpayer money, on land taken by eminent domain, according to a centrally-planned road system, and made safe by tort law, constant patrol, and voluminous regulation.
I thought this discussion from May on using Seasonally Adjusted Case Shiller numbers was enlightening.....
JD (profile) wrote on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 8:00 am
Using the non-seasonally adjust CS numbers is not an appropriate analysis, the seasonally adjusted CS numbers should be used when comparing price trends to the baseline scenario. I wonder why it is that I am the only one thought to mention that?
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 5/26/2009 - 9:05 am reply Ignore user
Because CSI is a y-o-y measure so by definition it is already SAAR.