Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 9:56 am
I think Byz very "Swiftly" got to the point with a modest proposal.
Explicitly, it seems to me that people should be aware they are living in an irrational society with a dysfunctional policy mechanism.
This is the culture that brought you TARP, the PATRIOT Act, Katrina, credit policy post-9/11 and such brilliant recent ideas as Cash for Clunkers and the nationalization of GM. Edit: And the sentencing rules for the Federal justice system, can't forget that utter genius. How about responding to the energy crisis by changing the calendrical system and moving daylight savings time?
I would be REAL CAREFUL about advocating how the state can suddenly develop and implement brand new welfare policies that institute "help with responsibility and respect". Where is the part where Hughes and Blackrock get their nose into the tent? Do you really want to see "socially engaged" welfare efforts by the same structure that brought you the GSE / AIG bailout? Especially if you are one of those people who criticizes the state.
Frankly, 2 hours is awesome for a bed, shower, and a breakfast and dinner, if BSR's old lady puts out a good spread. But that's not a good approach to national policy, that's a good way for BSR to provide what aid he can (food and lodging) for people he can afford to aid (small numbers of folks who can help out).
Typically when you have a crisis like this, pretty soon, there is just WAY TOO LITTLE economic activity for any amount of "get a job" to be meaningful, unless the job is "thief" "gambler" "pimp" or "militia footsoldier".
From previous thread: Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:01 am
I stare and literally was talking to the television; "Don't say it. Don't say it. Don't say it." Then He said it. He said "Partner." Historians will see this day as important for his treatment of China on the world stage as an equal. Nixon went to China. Obama went hat in hand. Two generations. Is this how it felt to be part of the British Empire?
"Partner" = "Strange Bedfellow"
Like it or not, Chinese USD holdings force both parties into a partnership, rhetoric notwithstanding.
No, we do not know what the monthly sales were for New Homes. The data point for sales of new one-family houses in May 2009 was 0.6%, but the margin of error was ±17.8%. That means the number is statistical noise.
last week I tried to offer up why I thought the M1 report shows a moon-shot. I didn't do a very good job...I did find a better summary that echoed my very poorly written attempt to explain it. I focused on demand deposits but here's a much better view:
"That's because lately, the PIE report has been hinting that the Personal Savings Rate has been skyrocketing on the supposed grounds that people are 'pulling in their horns' and spending less, so they save more. Actually, the real reason that the personal savings rate is likely up is so many people have been foreclosed on that they actually can afford the larger blue tarps for the new family home under the overpass. It's just that concept hasn't surfaced yet, but if you look at PCE/PIE reports of soaring personal saving rates and then read the Fed reports on money in the banks, you'll have the makings of a new episode of "Missing."."
"Two generations. Is this how it felt to be part of the British Empire?"
I'm not sure what the nature of the relationship is between China and the US, but this development should make us chary of grand and sweeping predictions. A hundred years ago China was in thrall to the West.
Black Star most likely inherited his claim to the Ranch from some European king, who just took it by force. Rules were passed to prevent that kind of behavior by someone else. I can understand why he would want the rules never to be changed.
the point is this: we had a very short run in the course of human history during which we had control over our own destiny. now our fortunes lay in the hands of foreign powers... and through our own actions no less. history will not likely be a kind judge of american dominance.
that's just my guess. it's pretty amazing how quickly we rose and then laid the seeds for own demise (in terms of global power). the facts on the ground can always change, but...
disclaimer: i'm making an observation, not speaking out for or against american imperialism.
"the british had a longer lasting, more persistent, more successful empire than we have had"
The British certainly retained more dignity. I accidentally saw some reality TV last night. There is no reason why the United States should be a leader of anything except turning its own people into zombies and animals.
On Housing
from Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge "The End Of The End Of The Recession."
-The "new normal" for home sales will be roughly 600,000 units per year, at the height of the real estate bubble it was 1.4 million units.
-It will take a good five years "to mop-up excess inventory in the housing market.
-If the banks are "pregnant" with all of these extra assets for an extended period of time--which they will be--it's going to present a major problem for them in terms of turning them into cash.
-Housing vacancies are way up and it's "...no longer considered an appropriate investment class."
-Ongoing sales outlook for real estate is almost certainly one of bottom-bouncing for many, many years; with any comments relating to "improvement," being little more than propaganda.
-Q2 2009 foreclosure activity was at the highest level ever recorded. Banks are holding onto properties, which Zero Hedge and Rosenberg tell us will just "...delay the pain."
-Whitney Tilson, a housing exert, tells us, "...housing is a dead asset for years to come."
-Architectural billings continue to slip down to the lowest points ever recorded, a leading indicator for the construction industry.
"Take a name ..., I've noted before that I think Barry is somewhat missing the story here."
That wouldn't be the first time BR has missed the story. He may have changed his attitude somewhat but for a while he was nothing more than a more educated Cramer, constantly making conflicting calls with is quant box. I suspect his change now has more to do with keeping up a perception on one side so that he can sell books.
got pigged but here it is Blackhalo
Blackhalo
your list is weak:
American Beauty (1999) (the closet homsexual Marine neighbor was a terrible conceit)
Being John Malkovich (1999) (pity Charlie Kaufman can't finish a script, his cleverness gets him boxed in time and time )
Fight Club (1999) ( in a cult way, I guess I agree... except they butchered the ending)
Forrest Gump (1994) (like Wittgenstein, I must pass over this in silence)
Goodfellas (1990) (the last great Scorsese movie... just under the wire for the 90s)
L.A. Confidential (1997) (film noirs were done so much better at one time... no Chinatown)
Léon (1994)
Pulp Fiction (1994) (I'll give a shout to Quentin, although I wish he would stop borrowing camera set-ups from Ford to Peckinpah
Reservoir Dogs (1992) (a complete rip-off almost line for line of a Korean movie)
Saving Private Ryan (1998) (you're kidding right? did James Jones write the screenplay?)
Se7en (1995) (not great but still enjoyable showed the talent of Filcher...)
The Matrix (1999) (sui generis...)
The Shawshank Redemption (1994) (pretty good... a tad sentimental)
The Silence of the Lambs (1991) (Demme did a good job here, and Hopkins is great)
The Usual Suspects (1994) (manipulative script, Hithcock lite)
Unforgiven (1992) (compared to a Ford movie like Stagecoach?)
Watch stocks drop this week so that the Treasury can sell all this debt. Once the bond p*ssies have eaten it all up, stocks will then resume their upward trajectory. This joke won't end until the no further debt can be issued which given how obedient the bond market has been to Benny I don't see happening anytime soon. Savers be prepared to continue to take it up the a** for the foreseeable future.
@albrt
What's wrong with MTV"s "16 And Pregnant"?
The show re insures youngsters your parents or the gubberment will take care of you when you make mistakes.
I think CR is right [from what I'm hearing from people working in the biz as subs] - new home sales are creeping back up BUT mostly because the hollowed out builders are discounting like crazy, liquidating partially completed tracts and have [accurately] realized they like sharks need to keep swimming else they will die.
It is not uncommon to see a 'recovery' after a collapse kill off more troubled firms than in the collapse phase itself - has to do with the cashflow patterns in each phase... in the collapse the firms can slow cash burn by shutting down new build & sell out of completed or nearly completed inventory - sometimes at a POSITIVE cashflow [although earnings can be negative]... in the 'rebound' they burn cash doubly fast... buying materials, rehiring and then waiting for the units to close... often selling at a discount to 'prime the pump'. The down payments new buyers provide help a little but basically the build is funded by banks - and we know how healthy & cooperative they are right now.
I would not be surprised at all to see a bunch of builders go under OR be rolled up into hastily thrown together 'shot gun marriages'.
Love to hear other's take on this - later - gotta get back to work.
"The British certainly retained more dignity. I accidentally saw some reality TV last night. There is no reason why the United States should be a leader of anything except turning its own people into zombies and animals"
you obviously haven't been over to the UK recently
I remember last year he was making DOW and SP 500 calls with number like 1074, 11,455 until September came and blew his predictions out of the water then the market prognosticating mysteriously stopped. At different times he is short or long. Too bad he doesn't track his performance.
In a way...yes. You have to factor in the huge amounts of "deposits" (that are questionable in my book because it's not really known where they exist) that the Fed pays interest on. They were going to do that starting in 2011 but pulled forward that program so the Fed can pay interest at something like 2% to these banks to hold said deposits. Now that has everything to do with capital ratios (which is a different subject) but suffice to say the Fed is effectively bribing banks to hold deposits at a low interest rate rather than lending to us "risky" consumers. Bank a yield of 2% or take the risk at 7% with the very real prospect of having a default added to an already systemic problem.
MS (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:37 am replyIgnore user"Take a name ..., I've noted before that I think Barry is somewhat missing the story here."
That wouldn't be the first time BR has missed the story.
I'm sure you're both right but, the revisions of these numbers are huge so it does appear this report is nothing but noise.
Agreed, Duke, down the line. My favorite movie of the 90's and maybe ever was "Stolen Children" ("Il Ladro di Bambini") 1992.
No one pulls off sentimental like the Italian realists.
dryfly, excellent point. I think you are correct - the anemic "recovery" will kill more builders than the bust! Survival is about cash flow - and during the bust they stop building and sell land and generate cash, but that phase is ending. And I don't think any lenders will want to loan the builders more money!
Mark D (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:40 am
The show re insures youngsters your parents or the gubberment will take care of you when you make mistakes.
Yeah, what we really need is Hobbe's "law of nature". People need to see that the real situation is each against all.
Nobody should count on anyone for support. The government should be like "STARVE, Citizen" to the baby, now a Citizen with every right you have, and the misfortune to be birthed by an idiot.
The government should be like "STARVE, Citizen" to the 16 year old kid who got pregnant, and I'm sure you had such incredible judgment at 16 that all the insanely stupid things you did were carefully calculated not to be the ones that caught up with you.
And the parents, the nerve of them, not being like "abort it or hit the highway" to a minor.
Yeah, there's a lot of room for improvement here in America.
MS on savings I see... I was at my local bank branch last week and they said that have started to see a net outflows of cash in recent weeks. People closing small accounts. Could be just housecleaning
New home sales hit the level we saw in Nov 2008 - $600MM of MBS purchases by the Fed later. EDIT: Make that $600BB - the numbers are surreal, hard to keep track of the units.
It still amazes me that EVERYONE seems to ignore what is going on in the housing finance market. The ONLY reason we have mortgages rates below 7% is because the Fed is buying 75% of the market.
The Fed is on pace to exhaust their $1.25T allotment near the end of the year / early next year.
Does anyone believe a market is going to materialize for GSE MBS by that time? Enough to buy new issuance, and buy what the Fed holds?
If it doesn't, does that mean the Fed has to keep printing money to buy more MBS, and hold the existing MBS indefinitely?
When does it stop?
I predict that in 5 years we are all going to be millionaires, and broke.
Bernanke's legacy will not be a happy one, and it will be due to his actions in the MBS market, a market almost all economic commentators ignore.
Housecleaning? I doubt it... In a more stable environment I wouldn't argue that however I suspect there is more to it. Did the bank teller say that or was that your opinion?
"To get the full $4,500, those new cars must be at least 10 mpg more fuel efficient than the older model they replace, and trucks must be 5 mpg more efficient"
This is new the orig rules had the trucks only requiring 2 mg improvement and 5 mg for cars. Not too many cars get 28 mg combined EPA
Speaking of James Jones, and not entirely off topic, there's a sentence from Thin Red Line in which an American sergeant looks down from a hill at a ferocious battle underway between US and Japanese soldiers, and thinks [paraphrasing]: In ten years these people will be doing business together.
Yes, and after thirty years the US and Vietnam became partners in a trade agreement, and it was signed on the American side by one of our most conservative presidents.
Whose irony would be equal to such things? Shakespeare?
They (fed) will never pull that out simply because it will greatly affect the GS's of the world's ability to start it all up again. That crap is in a black hole forever...never to see the light of day. The only way it will is to allow the FED to offload the losses onto the Treasury.....but in a way that allows them to sell it in the open market? Never going to happen.
I think the whole point is to get all of the suburban tanks off of the road so people can buy the corollas that they actually need and not feel like they are gonna die when some tahoe driving a$$hole spills his coffee or drops his cigarette or HAS to take this call.
I closed an account (consolidating) and he mentioned that he has been closing more accounts than he has been opening in recent weeks... Could also be people closing the CCs that they had at the banks. I'm going to another bank today see if they say something similar.
teen pregnancy used to be the rule not the exception. once both parents started working 24/7 we started finding ways to keep our kids in daycare(school) longer and longer....which keeps them joining the productive workforce until well after they should.
Israeli tourists now flock unarmed to Egypt and Jordan. Not to Lebanon, Gaza, or Syria, but progress has been made. Only blood and bombs make the news.
"I think you are correct - the anemic "recovery" will kill more builders than the bust!"
I'd second that. Or third it, or whatever. Especially if the recovery of the big banks and the stock market - which will have to be paid for by Main Street - don't lead to a recovery of Main Street. In other words, if we stay stagnant or double-dip. Big bankers buy big houses, but not many of them.
I love how the system holds up Germany's program as proof this cash for clunker's will work. Totally missing the point that the german system is set up for safety of it's vehicles rather than efficiency purposes. The german market for used cars is dead because of this.
"Geithner Pledges Smaller Deficit as China Talks Start "
yes highly ironic with a 1/4 of a trillion in debt offered this week. Just like BB saying he wasn't monetizing the debt and within 10 minutes of saying that the Fed's own web-site showed an outright coupon purchase of $7b.
"The US is embarking on what the Brits call "council housing". Everybody rents from the gov't. Not such a bad thing, IMO."
When we were over there last, the locals liked to complain about the drunks who did not work and lived practically rent-free in council housing with 1500-1800 sq ft and views of the ocean. We all just sort of sniggered behind their backs.
I'm with Byzantine Ruins on his "STARVE, Citizen" rant. The black-and- white thinking exhibited by some here really doesn't "cut it". We live in glorious technicolor.
A couple of weeks ago Geithner said the rate of decline in the economy has slowed, consumer confidence has improved, the financial system is healing, and concern about a financial meltdown has receded.
The 'waterboy for Goldman Sacks' is a major league assclown !
I'm sure you all saw those Chrysler ads.... "up to $4500 + $4500 incentive"
If you need a subsidy of almost $9k to purchase a vehicle that tells me two things....it was always over-priced and the buyer can't afford it. Nevermind that the incentives are just about equal or in some cases a little less than the depreciation it gets as soon as it leaves the lot.
$537BB of Agency MBS + $102BB of Agency Debt to fund their balance sheets so they could buy MBS.
This is the source of green shoots in the housing market. This plus the un-quantifiable amount of risk the FHA has taken on, plus the tax breaks for FTHBs which are funded by deficits.
This is unsustainable. A currency collapse is coming.
"I'm with Byzantine Ruins on his "STARVE, Citizen" rant. The black-and- white thinking exhibited by some here really doesn't "cut it". We live in glorious technicolor."
Hasn't the "right in principle, but wrong in practice crowd," learned their lessons with free markets run amok?
Mark D (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:56 am
@Byzantine_Ruins
Obviously you never watched the show.
Nope, never have, and the show is not the problem, the degree to which you perceive it to be is you being a media tubetard with a set of string attached to you that make you do whatever the person on the TV says. I completely went to a high school where a large percentage of the girls in the student population would bring their babies to show off in their junior and senior years, I assure you I appreciate the problem.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:58 am
So what is your solution to teen pregnancy?
Mandatory sex education, handing out birth control to all and sundry, abortions on demand for minors without parent involvement and stigmatize it in a way that will work with teens -- it is something that is terrible for your social life, will make you poor, and a challenge you're not ready for yet.
Fuck their parents' desires on the matter, it's an expense on the state's balance book. I don't care if it crimps population growth, America clearly can import all the new Americans it wants if we slip below the 0 line. Ask anyone with beanerfear about how there are just floods of people waiting to jump the fence.
and who should be responsible for paying for the children?
They're Citizens who cannot possibly support themselves. Their health and welfare is the duty of the Republic. To question this is to be an enemy of the Republic and stupid to boot. Why would you want to in any way further disadvantage this person who is already starting off with a major handicap so that they have an increased chance to becoming a burden themselves?
It's awesome so many people lack enough chances to be self-righteous in their personal life that they have to use public policy as a forum, but again, it's just a matter of the state's balance book. Better to make sure the kid gets a good start to minimize the aggregate future expense profile.
I also have no problem with enforcing a minimum level of care and education on the parents, with regular inspections, just like you would have at a nursing home or any other place with Citizens who are dependent. You also need to engage with the parent to get them educated and employed. Basically treat it as ringfencing an epidemic -- educated and affluent people tend to have fewer children so you'll want to take prophylactic measures with the people already known to be prone to breeding.
"When gamblers aren't building, forget about people who make rational decisions," said Martin, president of Bommer Industries, the last completely American manufacturer of door hinges for hotels, malls, universities and other big commercial buyers.
Byz is far better equipped to explain his position, but for myself, I'll just say that when everything is reduced to a dollar sign, and "who pays?", we really are in trouble. However, do not adjust your set.
@ Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 8:14 am
Never read yahoo finance early in the morning....makes you wanna barf
Dismantling the Temple ( the Fed ) http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090803/greider/single By William Greider July 15, 2009
Point #6 - This road leads to the corporate state--a fusion of private and public power, a privileged club that dominates everything else from the top down. This will likely foster even greater concentration of financial power, since any large company left out of the protected class will want to join by growing larger and acquiring the banking elements needed to qualify.
The MSM is selling this ‘deep and hard’ because they play are accustomed to playing the the role of whores to the fusion of private and public power
Speaking to the 10th Annual Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver this week, Faber said: “You cannot create prosperity through money printing and debt growth.”
Faber preached an idea that became the theme of the event: Government fiscal and monetary intervention, “can postpone, but not prevent crisis.
No it is what are we getting for what we pay? What is the real goal. Where is the real info on the success/ fail in government feel good programs. Problem with the emotional mind and the business mind. All I hear is I want to starve people. Yep, that me who doubled the size of my garden and in a week or so have enough produce to donate to the Seniors center. By the way My donation will be annomous. Charity is not for recognition or a tax deduction. Problem is simple you don't see both sides just the popular culture side.
"This is the 2nd lowest sales for June since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963.
Take out the seasonality, the $8000 monetized rebate for first time buyers, the 5% mortgage rates, and 3.5% FHA down payments for those who qualify--then see how sales do. Fall/winter will be fugly in the housing market.
@Byzantine_Ruins
Obviously you never watched the show.
"Nope, never have, and the show is not the problem"
IMO kids don't need to see that if you get pregnant at 16 no problem, someone will take care of you, so go ahead and worry about it later.
The show does not depict hardship for their decisions, other than the mom not letting her use the car to go to the mall.
Sex education is taught prior to turning 16, they know better.
Byz,
Can't go the abortion route. Understand the argument, but I have to look at the individual trees and the forest. For ever hundred or even thousand babies born into the nightmare you described, one will rise above the odds and become more than fate dictates. This issue is one that has bothered me for a long time. I don't have a solution. I am not a universal sanctity of life zealot. I think people should have the freedom to determine their own end, if they choose. I think some patterns of behavior should be punished in this life with death and judgment by society, not in the afterlife...but I can't condone the destruction of life to ease the burden of another. Regardless, we all pay in the long run.
this will make Blackhalo happy but everytime I see his name, Black Star Ranch name and Black Hat (he's MIA these days) I think of the opening scene in Reservoir Dogs where they choose names... funny...
The markets for MBS and their derivitaves have surely proven exciting. What do you see as not free about the market, besides the obvious bailouts, of course?
Take a name. I agree with Faber soon or later those debts must come due If we print & borrow we will have to raise taxes at some point less we fall into financial oblivion.
"The Commerce Department said Monday that sales rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, from an upwardly revised May rate of 346,000."
Which is more in line with the ideals of the Republic?"
Well you get to pay either way. Your choice is the 80K/year to keep the child in prison as an adult, or the 80K/year to set them (+ mom) on the path to a college education.
It is one of those right in principle (no one should get a free lunch) to wrong in practice (they will still be a burden on your budget) moments. And the cost totally pales in comparison to what we have spent trying to keep the banks solvent, and the rich, rich.
I am not here to burn the liberal Thread down but to suggest looking past the popular beliefs taught and really see for your self. Small town Americas job one is to milk the Feds through social programs. With out a victim no money.
here's the Names scene from Reservoir Dogs YouTube -
... you think if CR started over he might want to steal a
tad from this?
"no names involving body parts... hear me Take a Name?"
....
Here in Oregon there are 3 spieces, small, medium, and large. The big builders like Centex, you already know. The medium guys really got hit hardest, because they have a lot less cash and a lot more debt. Also, they do a lot of 'land banking' because land prices are sky-high here. (Generally over 6 figures in the urban growth boundary, for a 1/4 acre lot.) We've had some spectacular fail in that segment.
The small fry have gone into remodeling, and they seem to be working under the table too, but I can't prove that. The subs are almost dead, and the building related stuff, like Pozzi windows out in Bend, has gone way down. That type of 'forest products' industry was pretty much the only thing going in rural Oregon, other than cattle ranching, hence about 20% unemployment out there, IIRC. On small totals however:Oregon total population is about 3.5 million.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 11:25 am
Byz,
Can't go the abortion route. Understand the argument, but I have to look at the individual trees and the forest. For ever hundred or even thousand babies born into the nightmare you described, one will rise above the odds and become more than fate dictates.
Then don't have an abortion if you get pregnant. I don't think it should be mandatory, just freely and confidentially accessible. I don't really see a pressing need to ruin two lives to make one moral judgment that doesn't really affect me or the state, except that it almost certainly is a least-cost option compared to child care, parent welfare, eventual warehousing of the resultant antisocial monkey when they become a criminal, etc.
Pavel - some will survive and a lot won't. Key is how much leverage they entered the recession with and overall cost structure [mostly overhead - how many chiefs vs how many indians]... legacy cost is 'over blown' as an issue EXCEPT for the largest top of the pyramid OEMs where they have BOTH way too many exec's per productive worker AND too much legacy cost.
Numbers I'm hearing is that business is down between 30% and 50% in many mfg firms depending on where the company is in the supply chain... surprisingly more than a few of the leaner firms can actually cashflow at those levels if they aren't over leveraged though they will lay off heavily to remain cashflow positive at these levels. Companies with a high percentage overhead to direct cost won't be so fortunate whether or not they levered up with their own cash or debt [high indirect to direct cost ratio == high 'operating leverage' whether funded via debt or 'retained earnings' == screwed]...
Yay green sh0ots..the economy's recovering..woo hoo. But who will benefit? only he top 99% of earners- the same as it;s been since R3aganomics.
How else would you explain how executive wages have skyr0cketed, while worker wages having been LAGGING inflation for the past 2 decades? Why do we put up with this cra.p? Maybe the economy needs to shrink some more so that real change will take place that EVERYONE can benefit from instead of the wealthy investor creator class.
Auckland home prices are a lot higher now than they were 10 years ago, Mel. I don't know if you'll escape what we have here that you don't like. But it is a nice place, old-fashioned.
if auckland's old fashioned, you'll really love the rest of the country, which would be about 17th century
but heh, our top dog is an ex merrill currency trader, which segues it back to reality
shania twain thought auckland was a poor woman's cali and bought in our aspen
both are experiencing RE deflation, buyers are sniffing but not biting
me, i bought 2 hours from aspen but cheaper and HRV to mess wif the Enronistas who fled here.....
I realize this is a bit later.
However; I never stated that "who pays" is the only consideration.
Never.
Not once.
I merely asked who pays?
You, barfly, assumed that "who pays" is my only consideration.
Good day.
Today's housing market is suffering through many odds and evens, whether there is huge slash in market but the sale is still on rise. But in time to come the housing cost may be slashed further that enable to have a affordable dream house. A good link explaining the same is Is this right time to buy house in US
But sad:
BBC NEWS | Business | US manufacturing jobs go to China
sales up, prices down
hoocoodanode?
Reposted from the last thread:
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 9:56 am
I think Byz very "Swiftly" got to the point with a modest proposal.
Explicitly, it seems to me that people should be aware they are living in an irrational society with a dysfunctional policy mechanism.
This is the culture that brought you TARP, the PATRIOT Act, Katrina, credit policy post-9/11 and such brilliant recent ideas as Cash for Clunkers and the nationalization of GM. Edit: And the sentencing rules for the Federal justice system, can't forget that utter genius. How about responding to the energy crisis by changing the calendrical system and moving daylight savings time?
I would be REAL CAREFUL about advocating how the state can suddenly develop and implement brand new welfare policies that institute "help with responsibility and respect". Where is the part where Hughes and Blackrock get their nose into the tent? Do you really want to see "socially engaged" welfare efforts by the same structure that brought you the GSE / AIG bailout? Especially if you are one of those people who criticizes the state.
Frankly, 2 hours is awesome for a bed, shower, and a breakfast and dinner, if BSR's old lady puts out a good spread. But that's not a good approach to national policy, that's a good way for BSR to provide what aid he can (food and lodging) for people he can afford to aid (small numbers of folks who can help out).
Typically when you have a crisis like this, pretty soon, there is just WAY TOO LITTLE economic activity for any amount of "get a job" to be meaningful, unless the job is "thief" "gambler" "pimp" or "militia footsoldier".
From previous thread:
Rob Dawg (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:01 am
I stare and literally was talking to the television; "Don't say it. Don't say it. Don't say it." Then He said it. He said "Partner." Historians will see this day as important for his treatment of China on the world stage as an equal. Nixon went to China. Obama went hat in hand. Two generations. Is this how it felt to be part of the British Empire?
"Partner" = "Strange Bedfellow"
Like it or not, Chinese USD holdings force both parties into a partnership, rhetoric notwithstanding.
If home sales were seasonal I would not be real impressed.oh,wait.
the british had a longer lasting, more persistent, more successful empire than we have had.
"I'll have more later ..."
such as price action
Ritholz from June 24, 09
Once again down the rabbit hole:
No, we do not know what the monthly sales were for New Homes. The data point for sales of new one-family houses in May 2009 was 0.6%, but the margin of error was ±17.8%. That means the number is statistical noise.
RockyR (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:22 am
the british had a longer lasting, more persistent, more successful empire than we have had.
Why do you hate America?
i'm not a hater, just a truth sayer!
and Ritholz today
This is 11.0 percent (±13.2%)* above the revised May rate of 346,000, but is 21.3 percent (±11.4%) below the June 2008 estimate of 488,000.
New Home Sales Fall 21.3% | The Big Picture
RockyR: and your point is?
"New Home Sales increase in June, Highest since November 2008"
O, you could point out it is the lowest June since before your chart began.
wally--and what about prices? headed down?
well......
last week I tried to offer up why I thought the M1 report shows a moon-shot. I didn't do a very good job...I did find a better summary that echoed my very poorly written attempt to explain it. I focused on demand deposits but here's a much better view:
"That's because lately, the PIE report has been hinting that the Personal Savings Rate has been skyrocketing on the supposed grounds that people are 'pulling in their horns' and spending less, so they save more. Actually, the real reason that the personal savings rate is likely up is so many people have been foreclosed on that they actually can afford the larger blue tarps for the new family home under the overpass. It's just that concept hasn't surfaced yet, but if you look at PCE/PIE reports of soaring personal saving rates and then read the Fed reports on money in the banks, you'll have the makings of a new episode of "Missing."."
Taken from:
UrbanSurvival | Financial News of the Second Great Depression
Just wanted to tie up that loose end.
Ciao
MS
wally, I did point out this was the 2nd lowest June NSA since data was gathered. The lowest was in June 1982.
"This is the 2nd lowest sales for June since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963.
In June 2009, 36 thousand new homes were sold (NSA); the record low was 34 thousand in June 1982; the record high for June was 115 thousand in 2005."
Take a name ..., I've noted before that I think Barry is somewhat missing the story here.
best to all
"Two generations. Is this how it felt to be part of the British Empire?"
I'm not sure what the nature of the relationship is between China and the US, but this development should make us chary of grand and sweeping predictions. A hundred years ago China was in thrall to the West.
Black Star most likely inherited his claim to the Ranch from some European king, who just took it by force. Rules were passed to prevent that kind of behavior by someone else. I can understand why he would want the rules never to be changed.
the point is this: we had a very short run in the course of human history during which we had control over our own destiny. now our fortunes lay in the hands of foreign powers... and through our own actions no less. history will not likely be a kind judge of american dominance.
that's just my guess. it's pretty amazing how quickly we rose and then laid the seeds for own demise (in terms of global power). the facts on the ground can always change, but...
disclaimer: i'm making an observation, not speaking out for or against american imperialism.
So MS you are saying that there really is no Money being put away, that the Personal savings is just a number pulled from falling PCE?
June was due to rising rates that month. You know those 5,25% rates can be a killer.
"the british had a longer lasting, more persistent, more successful empire than we have had"
The British certainly retained more dignity. I accidentally saw some reality TV last night. There is no reason why the United States should be a leader of anything except turning its own people into zombies and animals.
TBT not F'ing.
On Housing
from Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge "The End Of The End Of The Recession."
-The "new normal" for home sales will be roughly 600,000 units per year, at the height of the real estate bubble it was 1.4 million units.
-It will take a good five years "to mop-up excess inventory in the housing market.
-If the banks are "pregnant" with all of these extra assets for an extended period of time--which they will be--it's going to present a major problem for them in terms of turning them into cash.
-Housing vacancies are way up and it's "...no longer considered an appropriate investment class."
-Ongoing sales outlook for real estate is almost certainly one of bottom-bouncing for many, many years; with any comments relating to "improvement," being little more than propaganda.
-Q2 2009 foreclosure activity was at the highest level ever recorded. Banks are holding onto properties, which Zero Hedge and Rosenberg tell us will just "...delay the pain."
-Whitney Tilson, a housing exert, tells us, "...housing is a dead asset for years to come."
-Architectural billings continue to slip down to the lowest points ever recorded, a leading indicator for the construction industry.
"Take a name ..., I've noted before that I think Barry is somewhat missing the story here."
That wouldn't be the first time BR has missed the story. He may have changed his attitude somewhat but for a while he was nothing more than a more educated Cramer, constantly making conflicting calls with is quant box. I suspect his change now has more to do with keeping up a perception on one side so that he can sell books.
Ciao
MS
TBT not F'ing.
pavel.chichikov
But sad:
BBC NEWS | Business | US manufacturing jobs go to China
......no problemo ......US still holds highly sophisticaed finance engineeing jobs......no other country can beat us.........
got pigged but here it is Blackhalo
Blackhalo
your list is weak:
American Beauty (1999) (the closet homsexual Marine neighbor was a terrible conceit)
Being John Malkovich (1999) (pity Charlie Kaufman can't finish a script, his cleverness gets him boxed in time and time )
Fight Club (1999) ( in a cult way, I guess I agree... except they butchered the ending)
Forrest Gump (1994) (like Wittgenstein, I must pass over this in silence)
Goodfellas (1990) (the last great Scorsese movie... just under the wire for the 90s)
L.A. Confidential (1997) (film noirs were done so much better at one time... no Chinatown)
Léon (1994)
Pulp Fiction (1994) (I'll give a shout to Quentin, although I wish he would stop borrowing camera set-ups from Ford to Peckinpah
Reservoir Dogs (1992) (a complete rip-off almost line for line of a Korean movie)
Saving Private Ryan (1998) (you're kidding right? did James Jones write the screenplay?)
Se7en (1995) (not great but still enjoyable showed the talent of Filcher...)
The Matrix (1999) (sui generis...)
The Shawshank Redemption (1994) (pretty good... a tad sentimental)
The Silence of the Lambs (1991) (Demme did a good job here, and Hopkins is great)
The Usual Suspects (1994) (manipulative script, Hithcock lite)
Unforgiven (1992) (compared to a Ford movie like Stagecoach?)
Watch stocks drop this week so that the Treasury can sell all this debt. Once the bond p*ssies have eaten it all up, stocks will then resume their upward trajectory. This joke won't end until the no further debt can be issued which given how obedient the bond market has been to Benny I don't see happening anytime soon. Savers be prepared to continue to take it up the a** for the foreseeable future.
@albrt
What's wrong with MTV"s "16 And Pregnant"?
The show re insures youngsters your parents or the gubberment will take care of you when you make mistakes.
I think CR is right [from what I'm hearing from people working in the biz as subs] - new home sales are creeping back up BUT mostly because the hollowed out builders are discounting like crazy, liquidating partially completed tracts and have [accurately] realized they like sharks need to keep swimming else they will die.
It is not uncommon to see a 'recovery' after a collapse kill off more troubled firms than in the collapse phase itself - has to do with the cashflow patterns in each phase... in the collapse the firms can slow cash burn by shutting down new build & sell out of completed or nearly completed inventory - sometimes at a POSITIVE cashflow [although earnings can be negative]... in the 'rebound' they burn cash doubly fast... buying materials, rehiring and then waiting for the units to close... often selling at a discount to 'prime the pump'. The down payments new buyers provide help a little but basically the build is funded by banks - and we know how healthy & cooperative they are right now.
I would not be surprised at all to see a bunch of builders go under OR be rolled up into hastily thrown together 'shot gun marriages'.
Love to hear other's take on this - later - gotta get back to work.
The British still bow to an inherited Monarch. We say f@#% the President, bowing to King Oily. Who retains more dignity?
"The British certainly retained more dignity. I accidentally saw some reality TV last night. There is no reason why the United States should be a leader of anything except turning its own people into zombies and animals"
you obviously haven't been over to the UK recently
MS +10 On BR
I remember last year he was making DOW and SP 500 calls with number like 1074, 11,455 until September came and blew his predictions out of the water then the market prognosticating mysteriously stopped. At different times he is short or long. Too bad he doesn't track his performance.
Tim-
In a way...yes. You have to factor in the huge amounts of "deposits" (that are questionable in my book because it's not really known where they exist) that the Fed pays interest on. They were going to do that starting in 2011 but pulled forward that program so the Fed can pay interest at something like 2% to these banks to hold said deposits. Now that has everything to do with capital ratios (which is a different subject) but suffice to say the Fed is effectively bribing banks to hold deposits at a low interest rate rather than lending to us "risky" consumers. Bank a yield of 2% or take the risk at 7% with the very real prospect of having a default added to an already systemic problem.
Ciao
MS
Blackhalo... like I said greater movies were made in '39
than in the 90s..
1939 in film - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
......
MS (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:37 am replyIgnore user"Take a name ..., I've noted before that I think Barry is somewhat missing the story here."
That wouldn't be the first time BR has missed the story.
I'm sure you're both right but, the revisions of these numbers are huge so it does appear this report is nothing but noise.
Agreed, Duke, down the line. My favorite movie of the 90's and maybe ever was "Stolen Children" ("Il Ladro di Bambini") 1992.
No one pulls off sentimental like the Italian realists.
dryfly, excellent point. I think you are correct - the anemic "recovery" will kill more builders than the bust! Survival is about cash flow - and during the bust they stop building and sell land and generate cash, but that phase is ending. And I don't think any lenders will want to loan the builders more money!
best wishes
Anything that has a +/- of over 5% is completely and totally unreliable. The real comedy is that usually the change is well below the error factor.
Ciao
MS
Duke - '39 was quite a year.
Mark D (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:40 am
The show re insures youngsters your parents or the gubberment will take care of you when you make mistakes.
Yeah, what we really need is Hobbe's "law of nature". People need to see that the real situation is each against all.
Nobody should count on anyone for support. The government should be like "STARVE, Citizen" to the baby, now a Citizen with every right you have, and the misfortune to be birthed by an idiot.
The government should be like "STARVE, Citizen" to the 16 year old kid who got pregnant, and I'm sure you had such incredible judgment at 16 that all the insanely stupid things you did were carefully calculated not to be the ones that caught up with you.
And the parents, the nerve of them, not being like "abort it or hit the highway" to a minor.
Yeah, there's a lot of room for improvement here in America.
MS on savings I see... I was at my local bank branch last week and they said that have started to see a net outflows of cash in recent weeks. People closing small accounts. Could be just housecleaning
Usually I Google before posting, but I'll take a chance:
I believe teen pregnancy rates have steadily declined every decade in US history.
New home sales hit the level we saw in Nov 2008 - $600MM of MBS purchases by the Fed later. EDIT: Make that $600BB - the numbers are surreal, hard to keep track of the units.
It still amazes me that EVERYONE seems to ignore what is going on in the housing finance market. The ONLY reason we have mortgages rates below 7% is because the Fed is buying 75% of the market.
The Fed is on pace to exhaust their $1.25T allotment near the end of the year / early next year.
Does anyone believe a market is going to materialize for GSE MBS by that time? Enough to buy new issuance, and buy what the Fed holds?
If it doesn't, does that mean the Fed has to keep printing money to buy more MBS, and hold the existing MBS indefinitely?
When does it stop?
I predict that in 5 years we are all going to be millionaires, and broke.
Bernanke's legacy will not be a happy one, and it will be due to his actions in the MBS market, a market almost all economic commentators ignore.
Housecleaning? I doubt it... In a more stable environment I wouldn't argue that however I suspect there is more to it. Did the bank teller say that or was that your opinion?
Ciao
MS
Cash for Clunkers
"To get the full $4,500, those new cars must be at least 10 mpg more fuel efficient than the older model they replace, and trucks must be 5 mpg more efficient"
This is new the orig rules had the trucks only requiring 2 mg improvement and 5 mg for cars. Not too many cars get 28 mg combined EPA
Speaking of James Jones, and not entirely off topic, there's a sentence from Thin Red Line in which an American sergeant looks down from a hill at a ferocious battle underway between US and Japanese soldiers, and thinks [paraphrasing]: In ten years these people will be doing business together.
Yes, and after thirty years the US and Vietnam became partners in a trade agreement, and it was signed on the American side by one of our most conservative presidents.
Whose irony would be equal to such things? Shakespeare?
People closing small accounts. Could be just housecleaning
People emptying the piggy bank and the coin jar. Rolling them up, going to the bank for some dinner money.
@Byzantine_Ruins
Obviously you never watched the show.
Ghost-
They (fed) will never pull that out simply because it will greatly affect the GS's of the world's ability to start it all up again. That crap is in a black hole forever...never to see the light of day. The only way it will is to allow the FED to offload the losses onto the Treasury.....but in a way that allows them to sell it in the open market? Never going to happen.
Ciao
MS
I think the whole point is to get all of the suburban tanks off of the road so people can buy the corollas that they actually need and not feel like they are gonna die when some tahoe driving a$$hole spills his coffee or drops his cigarette or HAS to take this call.
@ Byz.
So what is your solution to teen pregnancy?
and who should be responsible for paying for the children?
MS
I closed an account (consolidating) and he mentioned that he has been closing more accounts than he has been opening in recent weeks... Could also be people closing the CCs that they had at the banks. I'm going to another bank today see if they say something similar.
Geithner Pledges Smaller Deficit as China Talks Start
If I had a yuan every time I heard that one.
The Fed/Fannie/Freddie holding of mortgages:
The US is embarking on what the Brits call "council housing". Everybody rents from the gov't. Not such a bad thing, IMO.
teen pregnancy used to be the rule not the exception. once both parents started working 24/7 we started finding ways to keep our kids in daycare(school) longer and longer....which keeps them joining the productive workforce until well after they should.
Israeli tourists now flock unarmed to Egypt and Jordan. Not to Lebanon, Gaza, or Syria, but progress has been made. Only blood and bombs make the news.
"I think you are correct - the anemic "recovery" will kill more builders than the bust!"
I'd second that. Or third it, or whatever. Especially if the recovery of the big banks and the stock market - which will have to be paid for by Main Street - don't lead to a recovery of Main Street. In other words, if we stay stagnant or double-dip. Big bankers buy big houses, but not many of them.
I love how the system holds up Germany's program as proof this cash for clunker's will work. Totally missing the point that the german system is set up for safety of it's vehicles rather than efficiency purposes. The german market for used cars is dead because of this.
"Geithner Pledges Smaller Deficit as China Talks Start "
yes highly ironic with a 1/4 of a trillion in debt offered this week. Just like BB saying he wasn't monetizing the debt and within 10 minutes of saying that the Fed's own web-site showed an outright coupon purchase of $7b.
Ciao
MS
Manufacturing,an 'awful' situation:
With even casinos not buying, can U.S. factories recover? | McClatchy
Thanks dryfly and CR it's just going sideways for a couple of months and then continue on the slippery down hill path.
"Geithner Pledges Smaller Deficit as China Talks Start "
I'd be thinking that it is no longer his call, as he is not in the driver's seat.
"The US is embarking on what the Brits call "council housing". Everybody rents from the gov't. Not such a bad thing, IMO."
When we were over there last, the locals liked to complain about the drunks who did not work and lived practically rent-free in council housing with 1500-1800 sq ft and views of the ocean. We all just sort of sniggered behind their backs.
Ireland was just as bad.
/sigh
Did they laugh in his face again?
JimPortlandOre
I think they're called council estates...
where do you think they got the phrase 'council estate schemie' from?
I'm with Byzantine Ruins on his "STARVE, Citizen" rant. The black-and- white thinking exhibited by some here really doesn't "cut it". We live in glorious technicolor.
OT Cash-For-Clunkers:
The first weekend of the C-f-C has been finalized and the ruling is that it is/has been a complete fiasco. Anyone got any reports on their own?
SO who pays in this glorious technicolor world?
The McClatchy article linked above is actually, I think, quite instructive.
A couple of weeks ago Geithner said the rate of decline in the economy has slowed, consumer confidence has improved, the financial system is healing, and concern about a financial meltdown has receded.
The 'waterboy for Goldman Sacks' is a major league assclown !
Barfly,
Funny I see the need for many that would rather enable then help and have them compete for your job. That's color.
"Did they laugh in his face again?"
That was my first thought when I read the headline.
I'm sure you all saw those Chrysler ads.... "up to $4500 + $4500 incentive"
If you need a subsidy of almost $9k to purchase a vehicle that tells me two things....it was always over-priced and the buyer can't afford it. Nevermind that the incentives are just about equal or in some cases a little less than the depreciation it gets as soon as it leaves the lot.
Ciao
MS
We could continue to hand out "free" condoms and offer education in "free" public schools, which has probably been a net saving, even in dollar terms.
Sorry to bring up religion.
FRB: H.4.1 Release--Factors Affecting Reserve Balances--December 3, 2009
$537BB of Agency MBS + $102BB of Agency Debt to fund their balance sheets so they could buy MBS.
This is the source of green shoots in the housing market. This plus the un-quantifiable amount of risk the FHA has taken on, plus the tax breaks for FTHBs which are funded by deficits.
This is unsustainable. A currency collapse is coming.
"I'm with Byzantine Ruins on his "STARVE, Citizen" rant. The black-and- white thinking exhibited by some here really doesn't "cut it". We live in glorious technicolor."
Hasn't the "right in principle, but wrong in practice crowd," learned their lessons with free markets run amok?
Mark D (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:56 am
@Byzantine_Ruins
Obviously you never watched the show.
Nope, never have, and the show is not the problem, the degree to which you perceive it to be is you being a media tubetard with a set of string attached to you that make you do whatever the person on the TV says. I completely went to a high school where a large percentage of the girls in the student population would bring their babies to show off in their junior and senior years, I assure you I appreciate the problem.
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 10:58 am
So what is your solution to teen pregnancy?
Mandatory sex education, handing out birth control to all and sundry, abortions on demand for minors without parent involvement and stigmatize it in a way that will work with teens -- it is something that is terrible for your social life, will make you poor, and a challenge you're not ready for yet.
Fuck their parents' desires on the matter, it's an expense on the state's balance book. I don't care if it crimps population growth, America clearly can import all the new Americans it wants if we slip below the 0 line. Ask anyone with beanerfear about how there are just floods of people waiting to jump the fence.
and who should be responsible for paying for the children?
They're Citizens who cannot possibly support themselves. Their health and welfare is the duty of the Republic. To question this is to be an enemy of the Republic and stupid to boot. Why would you want to in any way further disadvantage this person who is already starting off with a major handicap so that they have an increased chance to becoming a burden themselves?
It's awesome so many people lack enough chances to be self-righteous in their personal life that they have to use public policy as a forum, but again, it's just a matter of the state's balance book. Better to make sure the kid gets a good start to minimize the aggregate future expense profile.
I also have no problem with enforcing a minimum level of care and education on the parents, with regular inspections, just like you would have at a nursing home or any other place with Citizens who are dependent. You also need to engage with the parent to get them educated and employed. Basically treat it as ringfencing an epidemic -- educated and affluent people tend to have fewer children so you'll want to take prophylactic measures with the people already known to be prone to breeding.
No.
Never read yahoo finance early in the morning....makes you wanna barf
Investors Get Second Chance at Bull Market- TheStreet.com
Obama: U.S.-China relations to shape 21st century- AP
Bernanke: Economy will be stronger than before crisis- CNNMoney
And Chrysler got the BK judge to OK a quick sale so they could rush production.
They gives me confidence in their quality control.
Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 11:13 am
Never read yahoo finance early in the morning....makes you wanna barf
Investors Get Second Chance at Bull Market- TheStreet.com
That, my friends, is what I dub, "News provided courtesy of RCA Victor" -- "they know their master's voice."
Thanks, Pavel - from your link:
"When gamblers aren't building, forget about people who make rational decisions," said Martin, president of Bommer Industries, the last completely American manufacturer of door hinges for hotels, malls, universities and other big commercial buyers.
VIX +7%.. yeesh.
Byz is far better equipped to explain his position, but for myself, I'll just say that when everything is reduced to a dollar sign, and "who pays?", we really are in trouble. However, do not adjust your set.
@ Scrooge McDuck (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 8:14 am
Never read yahoo finance early in the morning....makes you wanna barf
Dismantling the Temple ( the Fed ) http://www.thenation.com/doc/20090803/greider/single By William Greider July 15, 2009
Point #6 - This road leads to the corporate state--a fusion of private and public power, a privileged club that dominates everything else from the top down. This will likely foster even greater concentration of financial power, since any large company left out of the protected class will want to join by growing larger and acquiring the banking elements needed to qualify.
The MSM is selling this ‘deep and hard’ because they play are accustomed to playing the the role of whores to the fusion of private and public power
Speaking to the 10th Annual Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver this week, Faber said: “You cannot create prosperity through money printing and debt growth.”
Faber preached an idea that became the theme of the event: Government fiscal and monetary intervention, “can postpone, but not prevent crisis.
“I believe next year’s economy will face even larger deficits. Their deficit is attempting to stimulate credit growth. Unless real credit growth returns, they will have to put more and more money into the system to maintain the status quo. All polices target consumption. That is a mistake,” Faber said
Money printing, debt growth and deficits don't create prosperity, says Marc Faber - Business Intelligence Middle East - bi-me.com - News, analysis, reports
"Hasn't the "right in principle, but wrong in practice crowd," learned their lessons with free markets run amok?"
since we haven't had those, probably not.
The Worldwide Crack Up Boom, According to Ludwig Von Mises
Residential Building Development in our 3-Stop-Light Town:
EDWARD HOMES, 250-homes 6-models built. ($189K-$251k) - Project stopped dead, answering machine says "everything on hold".
FOCUS GROUP, 7000-homes - Project stopped, gave dairy additional year to "clear out" - no infrastructure.
BEAZER HOMES, 586-homes - only small number of homes built - project stopped.
DESERT ROSE TOWNHOMES, 242-units - Project stopped.
PECHSTEIN RANCH, 289-1 acre residential lots - Project stopped.
CELEBRATE HOMES, 405-lots - extensive infrastructure work completed - Project stopped.
EL DIABLO HOMES, 26-lots - Project stopped.
ST. THOMAS PLACE, 881-condominiums and townhomes - Project dormant.
GOLDEN VALLEY - Project stopped.
MID-VALLEY ENTERPRISES, 780-residential lots at Sherri's Ranch Brothel - Project dormant
......and 400-additional residential lots thru 3-other developments - Projects dormant.
......this is in a small town of 38K in SoNV. (Pahrump)
BSR:
MID-VALLEY ENTERPRISES, 780-residential lots at Sherri's Ranch Brothel
OMG Lucifer is crying tears of blood right now. =)
Barfly,
No it is what are we getting for what we pay? What is the real goal. Where is the real info on the success/ fail in government feel good programs. Problem with the emotional mind and the business mind. All I hear is I want to starve people. Yep, that me who doubled the size of my garden and in a week or so have enough produce to donate to the Seniors center. By the way My donation will be annomous. Charity is not for recognition or a tax deduction. Problem is simple you don't see both sides just the popular culture side.
I don't believe I ever stated that "who pays" was the only consideration.
Don't put words in my mouth, barfly.
@Byzantine_Ruins
How is it that you can quote Zhuge Liang and then RCA Victor. Amazing study of history.
"This is the 2nd lowest sales for June since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963.
Take out the seasonality, the $8000 monetized rebate for first time buyers, the 5% mortgage rates, and 3.5% FHA down payments for those who qualify--then see how sales do. Fall/winter will be fugly in the housing market.
@Byzantine_Ruins
Obviously you never watched the show.
"Nope, never have, and the show is not the problem"
IMO kids don't need to see that if you get pregnant at 16 no problem, someone will take care of you, so go ahead and worry about it later.
The show does not depict hardship for their decisions, other than the mom not letting her use the car to go to the mall.
Sex education is taught prior to turning 16, they know better.
And only bums can't feed their kids...
Byz,
Can't go the abortion route. Understand the argument, but I have to look at the individual trees and the forest. For ever hundred or even thousand babies born into the nightmare you described, one will rise above the odds and become more than fate dictates. This issue is one that has bothered me for a long time. I don't have a solution. I am not a universal sanctity of life zealot. I think people should have the freedom to determine their own end, if they choose. I think some patterns of behavior should be punished in this life with death and judgment by society, not in the afterlife...but I can't condone the destruction of life to ease the burden of another. Regardless, we all pay in the long run.
The NYT says:
New U.S. Home Sales Rise Sharply as Prices Fall
New-Home Sales Jump As Prices Fall Sharply - NY Times
this will make Blackhalo happy but everytime I see his name, Black Star Ranch name and Black Hat (he's MIA these days) I think of the opening scene in Reservoir Dogs where they choose names... funny...
I'm all for charity which is a voluntary decision.
But I loathe welfare which is NOT.
Which is more in line with the ideals of the Republic?
"since we haven't had those"
The markets for MBS and their derivitaves have surely proven exciting. What do you see as not free about the market, besides the obvious bailouts, of course?
charity begins at Gnome
Take a name. I agree with Faber soon or later those debts must come due If we print & borrow we will have to raise taxes at some point less we fall into financial oblivion.
Hmmm. New Home prices down 12% yoy.
I managed to miss that until now.
"I think of the opening scene in Reservoir Dogs where they choose names..."
No way, I am going with Pinkhalo. Pink Hat amuses me though.
Byz stated the case very well, above. For myself, I'm dropping it, 'cause it's getting too heated.
JP: hoocoodanode?
Dollar index at 78.75 and dropping.
Anyone want to predict what it will be at the end of the year?
What are the consequences when it hits 65?
Biggest welfare programs in the US:
FDIC, TARP, TALF, et al, tax deductibility of mortgage interest, corporate BK, limited liability.
By far.
The Key phrase:
"The Commerce Department said Monday that sales rose 11 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000, from an upwardly revised May rate of 346,000."
Upwardly revised......
Keiretsu at it's finest.
Ciao
MS
"But I loathe welfare which is NOT.
Which is more in line with the ideals of the Republic?"
Well you get to pay either way. Your choice is the 80K/year to keep the child in prison as an adult, or the 80K/year to set them (+ mom) on the path to a college education.
It is one of those right in principle (no one should get a free lunch) to wrong in practice (they will still be a burden on your budget) moments. And the cost totally pales in comparison to what we have spent trying to keep the banks solvent, and the rich, rich.
I am not here to burn the liberal Thread down but to suggest looking past the popular beliefs taught and really see for your self. Small town Americas job one is to milk the Feds through social programs. With out a victim no money.
here's the Names scene from Reservoir Dogs
YouTube -
... you think if CR started over he might want to steal a
tad from this?
"no names involving body parts... hear me Take a Name?"
....
@ dryfly, re: builders
Here in Oregon there are 3 spieces, small, medium, and large. The big builders like Centex, you already know. The medium guys really got hit hardest, because they have a lot less cash and a lot more debt. Also, they do a lot of 'land banking' because land prices are sky-high here. (Generally over 6 figures in the urban growth boundary, for a 1/4 acre lot.) We've had some spectacular fail in that segment.
The small fry have gone into remodeling, and they seem to be working under the table too, but I can't prove that. The subs are almost dead, and the building related stuff, like Pozzi windows out in Bend, has gone way down. That type of 'forest products' industry was pretty much the only thing going in rural Oregon, other than cattle ranching, hence about 20% unemployment out there, IIRC. On small totals however:Oregon total population is about 3.5 million.
btw, Homegnome, how can you say I'm putting words in your mouth?
This is a direct quote:
"SO who pays in this glorious technicolor world? "
I don't believe I ever stated that "who pays" was the only consideration.
Don't put words in my mouth, barfly.
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Mon, 7/27/2009 - 11:25 am
Byz,
Can't go the abortion route. Understand the argument, but I have to look at the individual trees and the forest. For ever hundred or even thousand babies born into the nightmare you described, one will rise above the odds and become more than fate dictates.
Then don't have an abortion if you get pregnant. I don't think it should be mandatory, just freely and confidentially accessible. I don't really see a pressing need to ruin two lives to make one moral judgment that doesn't really affect me or the state, except that it almost certainly is a least-cost option compared to child care, parent welfare, eventual warehousing of the resultant antisocial monkey when they become a criminal, etc.
Manufacturing,an 'awful' situation:
With even casinos not buying, can U.S. factories recover? | McClatchy
Pavel - some will survive and a lot won't. Key is how much leverage they entered the recession with and overall cost structure [mostly overhead - how many chiefs vs how many indians]... legacy cost is 'over blown' as an issue EXCEPT for the largest top of the pyramid OEMs where they have BOTH way too many exec's per productive worker AND too much legacy cost.
Numbers I'm hearing is that business is down between 30% and 50% in many mfg firms depending on where the company is in the supply chain... surprisingly more than a few of the leaner firms can actually cashflow at those levels if they aren't over leveraged though they will lay off heavily to remain cashflow positive at these levels. Companies with a high percentage overhead to direct cost won't be so fortunate whether or not they levered up with their own cash or debt [high indirect to direct cost ratio == high 'operating leverage' whether funded via debt or 'retained earnings' == screwed]...
Yay green sh0ots..the economy's recovering..woo hoo. But who will benefit? only he top 99% of earners- the same as it;s been since R3aganomics.
How else would you explain how executive wages have skyr0cketed, while worker wages having been LAGGING inflation for the past 2 decades? Why do we put up with this cra.p? Maybe the economy needs to shrink some more so that real change will take place that EVERYONE can benefit from instead of the wealthy investor creator class.
hat tip to Interesting Finance & Economic articles
Bernanke, Summers and Geithner are a bunch of pimple faced nerds who are disconnected from what;s happening on mainstreet.
We live though reality every day.
@patientrenter
Auckland home prices are a lot higher now than they were 10 years ago, Mel. I don't know if you'll escape what we have here that you don't like. But it is a nice place, old-fashioned.
if auckland's old fashioned, you'll really love the rest of the country, which would be about 17th century
but heh, our top dog is an ex merrill currency trader, which segues it back to reality
shania twain thought auckland was a poor woman's cali and bought in our aspen
both are experiencing RE deflation, buyers are sniffing but not biting
me, i bought 2 hours from aspen but cheaper and HRV to mess wif the Enronistas who fled here.....
Kiwis overcharged $4b for power, says Commerce Commission | BUSINESS News
HRV
New Zealand's Leading Ventilation Company | HRV
"STARVE, Citizen"
That'd make one hell of a highway billboard.
I realize this is a bit later.
However; I never stated that "who pays" is the only consideration.
Never.
Not once.
I merely asked who pays?
You, barfly, assumed that "who pays" is my only consideration.
Good day.
Whatever.
Today's housing market is suffering through many odds and evens, whether there is huge slash in market but the sale is still on rise. But in time to come the housing cost may be slashed further that enable to have a affordable dream house. A good link explaining the same is Is this right time to buy house in US
Very good breakdown of the data. On the surface the news had me singing happy days so Im glad I looked a little closer and found your post.