1st 100 days - There are 2.9 million more people unemployed in May than there were unemployed in January. The unemployment rate went from 7.6% to 9.4%. Since May 2008, we have lost 5.5 million jobs. The biggest losers were:
Manufacturing 1.5 million lost
Finance & Prof Serv 1.5 million lost
Construction 1.1 million lost
Retail & Leisure 1.3 million lost
Damn, CR.........what a doomer.........just make sure your new garden plot has plenty of southern exposure - allow as much space between zero lot line setbacks as is usually the norm in "the OC".....
Consensus peak to trough real GDP decline of less than 4%? I don't need to read any further to know we are off this chart. Besides, all the "good recoveries" in the red circle are 30-50 years old.
Economists are strange people. I'd trust Conjure's dog bones and fetishes first.
With no data, and with irrelevant history, I'd bet on some growth (1%?) by end of year, measured yr/yr, but with equal likelihood on reversion to decline compared to further increase. I'd rank unemployment as the biggest factor, followed by debt reduction (low consumption). I don't see a short-mid-term reversal largely because we don't have any prospects of growth sectors. Certainly not housing, or manufacturing, or finance, or even tech.
Rocky road ahead, and our cars are not off-road capable.
Delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities soared $10 billion in June, hitting a 12-month high of almost $29 billion, according to Realpoint Research.
California led the nation with the highest amount of delinquent loans, closely followed by Texas and Florida.
Late loans across the country are up an “astounding” 585 percent from a year ago when just $4 billion were delinquent, reported the Horsham, Pa.-based research firm. The low point for delinquency was March 2007 when $2 billion was delinquent.
the pace of growth in the first year after a recession has, in our history, been reliably related to how bad the recession was. The deeper the recession, the faster the recovery.
This history seems to be limited to demand-shock driven recessions, followed by inventory adjustments.
I doubt this nice rule of thumb applies to balance-sheet / deleveraging driven recessions
A lot small mostly immigrant businesses are shutting down in SF Bay. Can these people claim any sort of government assistance besides food stamps, and welfare?
I've learned over the years that "cause" and "effect" are very tricky things. Harry Dent's demographics theory is based on declining consumption for post-50 boomers.
What is cause?
What is effect?
Many years ago I read statistics which implied that my peak earning years would be mid-50s. But why are they peak? Are they peak because society's age discrimination? Or because of true productivity? Or because I've passed my child-bearing/producing age?
BEIJING (AP) - Some 30,000 Chinese steelworkers clashed with police in a protest over plans to merge their mill with another company and beat the company's general manager to death, a human rights monitor said Saturday.
These out of work immigrants are useless to us. But we don't have the money to send them back (plus they'll just come back again), unlike the japanese. /sarcasm off
"The government will pay thousands of dollars to fly Mrs. Yamaoka; her husband, who is a Brazilian citizen of Japanese descent; and their family back to Brazil. But in exchange, Mrs. Yamaoka and her husband must agree never to seek to work in Japan again. "
Broward sez: What's the real driver for declining consumption?
IMO, when a person reaches a certain age (50 something or 60 something), they realize that they won't outlive many new purchases (durables) and that they don't have to play the 'style' game because sexual games aren't high on their agenda.
Get some fresh doom. See the future. Go long sunblock and seeds.
The chamber where we meet had been renovated fairly recently. Probably during the boom. Nice wood paneling, red velvet upholstery, and marble floors. The only spoiler was the brown water stain on the ceiling that had not been fixed. Paint was already starting to curl around the edges of the stain. Either the roof leaked or a large squirrel had taken a piss up there. I started sniffing the air. It had occurred to me that if it was squirrel piss I might be able to smell it. I wasn't sure exactly what squirrel piss smelled like though. Max gave me his "Knock off what ever crazy shit is going in your mind off and focus look." I really hated meetings, and this one had not even started yet.
Demographics is crucial to economic cycles. We are approx 15-20 years behind Japan demographically. They peaked in 1989. We Peaked in 2005-2007 (IMO). Boomers transition from being spenders to savers and the earnings also decline as you age even if you are working.
broward - can you plot kidswiveshabitsrapacious landlords vs organizational sociology / timeearnings*general welfare log on a chart please?
C
(PS if you can do the chart in 3D it would be useful to include the final demand dimension. (globally) (should be ok if we can disagg faith, jurisprudence, history and culture separately) (TIA, love your work). How's Monday for you? Hope this is not unreasonable - I'm talking to the Asia team then. Have a great weekend.)
According to calculations by Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research the profile of the current recession is now almost identical to the decline in Britain's output between 1929 and 1931. The 5.6pc contraction over the past year almost matches the 5.8pc fall in the year preceding the second quarter of 1931, during which Credit Anstalt in Austria collapsed, triggering a second wave of economic seizure across Europe.
The recession is far deeper and more severe than those of the early 1980s and 1990s, Mr Weale added.
I'd Also argue that Japan had some advantages over the US too. Better education (argue whether they are less creative) growing exports in the 90's, trade surpluses, Gov't surpluses (before they spent it all), and the cheapest public sectors workers (relative to those in country in the private sector) in the developed world.
they realize that they won't outlive many new purchases (durables)
I'm not seeing how this changes.
The lifespan of a car is the same, regardless of the owner's age.
I suspect that post-fifty people reduce spending because earnings decline, not vice versa.
I know that I would buy a new car given the income.
True, a lot of spending is ego-based, mate-attracting stuff and I ignore much of that.
My parents spend more on restaurants now than they did in their 30s or 40s or 50s.
Dent's demographics assume a certain behavior which is likely but not inevitable.
"Dent's demographics assume a certain behavior which is likely but not inevitable. "
That's true. It could've been that the baby boomers continued their spending well past the 60s, had it not been that we blew the housing bubble way too big, and now the loss of retirement/lack of credit has accelerated the spendthrift.
I made this comment a few months ago talking about 'green shoots'. In talking to my customers (then) most were confident of a recovery this year but they themselves weren't spending (freely). My comment was you can't have one without the other. Fast forward to today and still no change. One of my tenants (my business anchors a strip) is a gossip queen who knows EVERYONE. I talked to her this morning about her business - terrible. Asked her did she know ANYONE doing well - no. Yesterday I called an excavator to give a heads up that I would need some rip rap in a few months. Their reply - we might not make it to then.
We might have a technical bounce this quarter but I sure ain't seeing it in my locale. Just more tumbling along the bottom that will eat everyone's cash/credit until they fail unless things start looking up in a big way...and SOON.
Your parents may spend more now but adjusted for inflation it may be about the same or less. also I am sure there are things they used to to when they were younger like take the "kids" places that they no longer participate in
Look at young people they spend a disproportionate amount of their incomes because they have to (things are more expensive in real terms than in your parents generation) and they are less spend thrift.
the earnings also decline as you age even if you are working.
Right.
Is this inevitable?
I don't think it's an inevitable result of an aging population.
There are systemic constraints on productivity which may be reflected in declining earnings for aging boomers.
It may be reflected back as declining income because there's less need to pay for children.
I'm debating this in my own life.
I could coast along on part-time work for the rest of my life if I wanted to.
I probably wouldn't accomplish my remaining goals, though.
OTOH, I'm not sure they're worthwhile or possible anyway.
I'm definitely less willing to deal with bullcrap and annoying "my hair is on fire" kids running around screaming about crap that doesn't matter. So my income & spending are down. But I could probably change it if I worked hard enough.
OTOH, there is significant age discrimination that I didn't anticipate.
And with those previous recessions, was mortgage equity withdrawal 9% of personal income, as it was here in Q42006 ?
Don't forget that many affluent households have lost one of their major income generators, the ability to repeatedly tap the rising "equity" in their homes.
We've left the era where Debt Equals Wealth, so our next leg up has to be based on some real wealth creation, which we forgot how to do.
nova - new line in advertising, a small tag for the hemline saying "My Other Shirt Is an Oxford Twill".
Maybe all shirts need bumper stickers.
I think by this way lies economic recovery.
No, no, don't interrupt, I'm on a roll here, hey team, uhhh, McCartney, China, 1795, um, bumper stickers, sales, vol vs qual, um, no I didn't kowtow you fkers, ooh I love brainstorming, umm lunch shirley hmm ham and cheese, pitch, margin, no New Cokes thanks, litigious risk, boom boom Rio Tinto inside joke... Lordy why have weekends when work is so much fun.
A lot of the stimulus package was tax cuts which I argue offer cheap short term thrills and more pain down the road. Companies large and small benefited greatly from the tax cuts. This will be temporary and is already factored in to forecasts
Broward
Most people who are comfortable as I am sure you are would choose not to spend esp if things look uncertain for the future. Also boomers have to think about their health, wear and tear.
Any good ideas out there for why so many economists continue to only use post-war data to make their arguments?
On the theory that most economists are afraid to state opinions too far outside the mainstream, shouldn't it be conventional wisdom by now that the current recession is materially different from any other post-war recession? Ben Bernanke obviously believes that to be the case, shouldn't that give the meek enough cover?
You are right that consumption increases after 65 for many people in the form of medical costs and you know that the gov't picks up most of that tab through Medicare.
So gov't will definitely have to increase spending from where we are now. Budget deficits will grow making Japan's balance sheet a thing of envy. We may be already there.
For your viewing pleasure this evening.
Soylent Green starring Charlton Heston and a small man with big eyes whose name escapes me.
6 pm EST on the TCM channel.
On the other hand, if Alan Greenspan didn't blow the bubble so big, and baby boomers continued working, even though they were in good health, could they have not succumbed to the perils of outsourcing sooner or later? Surely, without credit, companies couldn't have been able to afford the baby boomer salaries.
"As chief Federal law enforcement officer, Obama has a duty to keep his trap shut regarding specific cases or potential cases. "
The President's duty is to uphold the Constitution, which has a First Amendment and a Fourth Amendment. Part of that duty is to check unreasonable use of the police power, which will always be a threat to liberty.
Charges had been dropped when Obama said an officer had been stupid. Obama apologized for speaking without knowing all the facts, but no issue was pending. The President's statement is inadmissible in future cases. In any event the Fourth Amendment does not give any remedy for stupidity by a police officer and he and the government are probably immune from legal claims of stupidity. If the President is afraid to call an officer's actions stupid when he thinks so, he is not strong enough to control abuse by law enforcement. According to Bloomberg.com,"Obama said he had no regrets about stepping into the case. "
63% was the average from 1946-1983. That was before teens had credit cards but the country was much younger then and wages steadily increased over that time
Now with the country aging and wages flat to down since 1983 I'd say it can go down to 58-60% easily. That is why I expect a 9-12% decline in US Gdp overall.
Liz I pitched this to CR and he says "no way" So take it for what it is.
A good argument that the police did what they are supposed to do in cases like this and that the President should not have rushed with his assessment of police actions
I was just making a point that spending patterns shift as one gets older. Older couple may go on more cruises now than when they were younger but they have given up other activities such as outdoor sports and the like. Nothing personal.
Strangely, the entire affair did not make the news in the Middle East, where there isn't much water right now, so I'm going on a cursory Bloomberg article. I would hope President has the strength of character to admit when he is wrong, even to Ari Fleischer. Reading the link, thanks...
ifaforo7 (profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:01 pm
Hey everyone. I'm sorry I've been away. I've been having adventures I can't talk about. They're letting me play with lots of money though, and that's fun.
Any good ideas out there for why so many economists continue to only use post-war data to make their arguments?
On the theory that most economists are afraid to state opinions too far outside the mainstream, shouldn't it be conventional wisdom by now that the current recession is materially different from any other post-war recession?
No, because it's not just wanting to be part of the herd. It's wanting to be seen to think the right / popular thing. People like optimists. Ask Dylan Ratigan what being a truth sayer in the establishment will get you. There's an agenda in place, and if you are not working to talk things up, you are not "with the program".
This is a very powerful dynamic, and one I well expected, having seen it played out in Japan in the early 90s. People will be crowing about the incipient recovery quarter after quarter for the next three-five years.
Ben Bernanke obviously believes that to be the case, shouldn't that give the meek enough cover?
I spoke with some bankers this week, not small fry, but people who should have known enough to do their own analysis. I was asked to give my opinion on the medium term economic future, and when I articulated it, they looked at me like I was from Mars. It was like they had never considered the root mechanisms, they were just expecting a repetition of cyclical patterns.
I don't really agree with Broward's final conclusions but I have to say that the whole "this is becoming a conformist society that discourages independent thinking" thing appears to be 100% true.
While I have the mic, I'd like to give a big shout out to Nena Gang of Tampa, Florida. She's prominent in her circles and so you'll know her if you know her. She really helped me out in a situation that offered no reward, and she gave me a very significant hand. I dunno what she's like in general, but she was a real peach to me for no good reason other than general friendliness. Thanks, Nena.
I was joking around, I rarely take anything here personally.
I know that spending patterns shift.
But I don't see that a huge reduction in standard of living is inevitable.
There's a massive waste of man hours even now, many jobs produce nothing.
A great deal of the economy is ego-based, minor variations of products or services which don't really matter.
My brother was in Japan last year for a week.
He said that despite their 20-year decline, the country seemed okay overall.
BR
"This is a very powerful dynamic, and one I well expected, having seen it played out in Japan in the early 90s. People will be crowing about the incipient recovery quarter after quarter for the next three-five years. "
Agree 100% We will be spinning are wheels not sure why we are not going anywhere. stuck in mud.
Broward
I agree people over 45 IMO don't have a lot to worry about Those under 45 do. They won't reach their parents levels of living.
the whole "this is becoming a conformist society that discourages independent thinking" thing appears to be 100% true.
It's a cost issue.
The up-cycle rewards diversity because you can make a net profit by pursuing marginal gains.
The down-cycle punishes diversity because it's become a net loser, you've overshot the "marginal gain vs marginal cost" breakpoint because marginal cost increases as marginal gain declines.
It reflects back into culture.
There's definitely a societal cost, very hard to quantify, associated with diversity.
I deal with a minor model of this in software, I know it fairly well by now.
I'm at 100% occupancy. But only because I slashed rent 27% for everyone january 1st. But even that hasn't stopped competitors trying to poach them. Thankfully, I've got a great location and bend over backwards for my tenants.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:27 pm
There's definitely a societal cost, very hard to quantify, associated with diversity.
I disagree with the conclusion -- I think it's related to social defense in marginal situations and not wanting to be placed into an outgroup and typically it is costly and destructive to the organization but profitable to the conformist.
Regardless of the mechanism in place, there's a real obvious aversion to being seen to think too much or too freely.
You can if you want to, it make no difference to me.
I will suggest to you that you're suffering from a cultural meme.
Most Americans are brainwashed that "Diversity == Good" without asking why.
Why is it good?
If you ask why, then you get the answer of why and when it's not good.
But we dont' want to go there because...
"Diversity == good"
Always.
It's very easy to show that diversity creates ever greater discontinuity in communication.
When you have no shared context and values, you have no communication.
The country will re-gell back into some set of socially acceptable behavior which will probably be fare more restrictive than what we're used to. Something like the 1950s.
"The country will re-gell back into some set of socially acceptable behavior which will probably be fare more restrictive than what we're used to. Something like the 1950s."
"It is possible to do a lawful thing that is stupid, and that is why officers have discretion in many cases. While it can be misused, discretion is there to prevent them from stupidly enforcing the letter of the law. That the arrest was unwise and imprudent has also been made clear by how quickly the charges were dropped and the apologies issued by the government of Cambridge."
Agreed, as above.
"The police need to foster an environment in which they can deliver public safety without being subject to obscenities, accusations and yelling from any party, even innocent parties. "
Bullshit. I visited Yad Vashem, the Holocaust Museum in Israel, a couple of weeks ago. Millions were arrested by uniformed government officers with almost no confrontations at the arrest. It may not have saved them, but we know it could not have made anything worse. When is it permissible to yell accusations at police, with whatever language you choose, as is sanctioned by the Constitution? If the officer has an unarmed teenager in a life-threatening chokehold, is it not your DUTY to yell at him to stop?
--- First commenter to article: "Wait, doesn’t this misstate the timeline? I thought it was pretty clearly established that Gates was not asked to exit and speak to the officer on the porch until after it had been established that he was the owner of the home. That would make the decision to invite him on the porch unjustifiable in terms of safety and ease of arrest, as no legitimate arrest would, at that stage, have been planned. As this writeup says, it might make sense to talk to a “suspect” on the porch. The officer concedes that at the time of the request that Gates move to the porch, Gates was no longer a suspect...."
Case closed. Gates had every right to be enraged, and the President has a duty to control police abuse. Bad things happen to professors in jail, especially when the guards are underpaid. Bad things also happen to black people while detained by police.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:39 pm
Most Americans are brainwashed that "Diversity == Good" without asking why.
Determinism is the pitfall in the roadway of collective analysis.
The reason that conformism is bad is being made manifest in front of you -- you have a society that can't stop making the same mistakes again and again. Leave it to Beaver is not the issue, you can see it on a much larger scale with the inability to frame an answer to the current policy crisis that can't be reduced to "spend til u win". It's what made the Japanese unable to address the crisis in the 90s as well. A conformist context leaves you with a narrow range of acceptable policies and if they're wrong, you die while punishing the people who are actually working on finding a solution.
I mean, look a the modern Republican party. Perfect example, and one of the major engines of the problem in America today. They're much more interested in discovering who isn't Christian enough, white-wing enough, law-and-order enough, low-taxes enough, conformist enough than in taking so much as a single step down the road to self-analysis. Why should they, the answer is clear -- do the same thing more, faster and harder and whip all the doubting Thomases out of the fold.
Identity is an invention. It is both self-devised and externally-suggested. Nothing about the process of identity-formation and selection has the slightest relationship to if the identity represents a menu of viable real-world policy choices. As you should well know, since you pillory the Randroids enough for the dogmatic adherence to some nonsense they got enchanted with one time. there is no identity that is anything but that, it's just that some of them happen to work.
I used to work with a guy who retired from Baltimore Homocide. Worked as an investigator for the Senate Commitee on Organized Crime. Then came to work for us. Everytime he drove to Florida he was usually stopped at least once. Yes, he is black.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:52 pm
Then came to work for us. Everytime he drove to Florida he was usually stopped at least once. Yes, he is black.
Well he should expect it, being one of Those People. I'm sure he's not one of those welfare babycannon crack-smoking buck negroes that are always leading white wimmin astray, but they need to check, you know?
Well he should expect it, being one of Those People. I'm sure he's not one of those welfare babycannon crack-smoking buck negroes that are always leading white wimmin astray, but they need to check, you know?
at least Robert Reich is honest.... Globalization - Salon.com
The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.
broward, I suspect stages of mental maturation play a role in our personal economics. It's an editing process.
One by one, all the reasons for spending - and eventually earning itself - come under review. At some point, you may find aspirations provided more pleasure than the accomplished fact did. Not true of everything, hence the idea of editing. Family wins out over a number of things. Comfort over luxury. And so on.
Washington's Dilemma: This Isn't a Recession, It's a Collapse
CRE getting crushed ( plenty of CR posts on this)
RRE still tanking e.g. 4.3 million units added to rental inventory + vacant U.S. homes at 18.7 million
Wages deflating so Consumer spending going down
Unemployment continues to grow with U6 likely at 20% across USA
Underemployment is growing faster than unemployment
perhaps somebody can weigh in on Blinder's article in the WSJ today. To summarize he says that since we have had certain sectors drop by as much as 30% once they bottom and inventory liquidation ceases we could see a big bounce back in growth. He is assuming that all those aspects contributing towards growth will continue on their current trajectory and as the drag gets eliminated growth results.
Here is my problem with that line of reasoning- the Federal deficit has gone from 2.5% of GDP to 7% and is now projected at 12%. (fiscal 2009-2010) Even if the deficit were to remain at its current level (absolute dollars) it would be a drag on GDP growth and any bounce back in the depressed sectors would be dwarfed by the fiscal drag. Blinder is right with regard to the the last half of this year and the first half of 2010 but after that there would have to be an enormous bounce back in the private sector to offset the fact that the 2011 Federal deficit is not going to 2.8TN without there being other consequences.
Break from painting in the heat wave, and lots of entertaining banter.
My aunt & uncle were a mixed race couple (he was black, but dead now....guess he's no color anymore), got married in the late 60's. His family were all college educated middle class, but they had to live in the hood while renting, because no one would rent to a mixed couple then. Their cracker-ass neighbors used to sit on their front porch and sing Old Black Joe & other negro favorites.
I remember going to the candy store with my mixed cousins. Us little white kids would get all the smiles, they would get taken to task as if they were shoplifters. Never mind all the crap uncle had to deal with any time the police were needed. First thing he had to do was establish that he was the one who called them, not the perpetrator....
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 3:27 pm
Byz - Iron Dream?? Ooh, is it apocalyptic?
It's a book where Norman Spinrad writes a science fiction novel as Adolf Hitler. it's a good read albeit probably not very much like an actual book Hitler might have written. In that, I'm really teasing, but, conformism is an irrationalist philosophy. it's about making the people who practice it feel good, not about achieving policy goals.
-yogi: I think there is still fair amount of controversy about timing - from the same set of comments, this one by the author of of the original post:
As for issues of timeline, my understanding is that the sergeant asked Gates to step onto the porch first thing. Later on, he also stated that Gates would have to follow him outside if he had any further business because he was leaving. This is when he said Gates enetered a public place and allegedly became disorderly. The account is open to question, naturally. The extent to which he baited Gates outside and the extent to which Gates pursued him are both very relevant, but will likely remain unknown.
Anyway, the issue is not about the extent to which yelling at the police bothers or insults the police. The issue is the extent to which it causes a genuine state of alarm and annoyance that nearby citizens have the right to be free from, and the extent to which it makes it difficult, as a practical matter (because police are people), to conduct a proper investigation of the incident at hand. The disorderly conduct statute and the one that prohibits obstructing governmental administration are not meant to work as deterrents, but are instead remedies to an ongoing problem that must be addressed. The fact that they are often dropped as charges speaks not only to the robust rights citizens enjoy, but also to the degree to which the courts view these types of arrests as such remedies. The power to physically remove people from a messy situation they’re perpetuating can be abused, and should not be taken lightly, but is useful even in a democracy.
Anyone who persisently screams at a doctor, nurse, lawyer or IRS agent will either be sedated, or strapped to his gurney, or wheeled away, or ejected from the location by security. Nobody will expect the practitioner to continue rendering his or her services in such an environment. Please do not underestimate the unique and challenging work environment of the police officer.
The police officer may or may not have abused his power, Prof. Gates may or may not have behaved disorderly - none of this has been established. The President cannot rush with judgment based only on hearsay. At the very least, Obama should have enclosed his comment with a ton of caveats.
I heard the comment on NPR that Obama seemed "tired" during the healthcare/Gates interview. This stuns me....with so much at stake, how can you be tired?
When is this situation going to get enough attention to drive itself out of its inertia?
Byz- really? I'm never going to read it because I don't have time for it, but are you sure that conformism is irrational? My concern is not that it's irrational, which I would agree it is, and gigantic systems have been premised on it, but that fundamentally it's unsustainable.
Herds do dumb stuff. If yr in one and it's not working well, what the heckinfak do you do? Hey, call the no clothes thing on the emp and see how many onward assignments come in, huh?
My first year at law school in Miami in the late 80's (the police force was not integrated, only on "Miami Vice"), I lent my car to a friend when I went back to New York on vacation. He is black, wears a Muslim headcover, and his dress and demeanor in no way led one to believe he was a law student . He was out late with 3 black friends, 2 women. He never got drunk, so I never even asked about it. He got pulled over for speeding.
The '75 Buick Regal (a fine clunker) was registered to a 'Betty Rosenberg' in West Palm Beach. I hadn't remembered to give him the registration or insurance card. The white officer listened to the explanation, obtained the number and called my grandmother, a light sleeper but completely ignorant of the fact I had just lent someone the car she had given me and had yet to register in my name as promised. She said yes, she was "loaning" me the car and I was a law student so there was no problem. (So smart).
A white classmate was talking to some girls on the sidewalk at a Spring Break party in Fort Lauderdale when an officer told him brusquely to "keep moving" (for no apparent reason). He quietly asked for the (white) officer's badge number. Then he was arrested. My roommate (white) asked "what station are you taking him to?" Then he was arrested. Both held overnight for disorderly conduct, charges dropped later. Suing the Department or city was not practical. Other than having to explain the arrest to the Bar, ongoing resentment of the arrogance of the police, who were not about to issue an apology to students with no White House connections, damages were minimal.
Lord. If you are in a herd, you don't do something crazy.
What you do is be sneaky.
You go just a tiny bit slower and edge on over to the side, and
don't let anyone see what you are doing and hope that you
manage to make it to the edge when the herd thunders
over the cliff.
Herding works a lot. If it hadn't worked it would have been selected
out.
Profiling is hurtful to those being profiled because it takes anecdotes or even statistics and applies them indiscriminately to the whole group.
Same is true about profiling of racial profiling - just because some police officers some place some time did something, it does not mean that the same assumption about racial bias should apply to any police incident where the officer was white and the civilian was black, even before facts are established.
As to spending, I don't see that we older bloomers are spending any less money.
We just ordered a bunch of curtains. I'm planning to buy some rugs, and in the fall
we will redo the pool. At some point his car will die or he will decide that he has
saved enough to buy a new one.
We don't spend as much on eating out, but that's cuz my mom treats us a lot.
So far the downturn has caused me grief only by bringing me clients with much
sadder stories than usual. They are still paying tho.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 3:54 pm
Same is true about profiling of racial profiling - just because some police officers some place some time did something, it does not mean that the same assumption about racial bias should apply to any police incident where the officer was white and the civilian was black, even before facts are established.
The system is a giant rape machine for putting blacks in jail so that nervous white geezers can have someone to cheer for while the oligarchs rob them. Look at the incarceration statistics.
Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is. If you had any quality of character, you wouldn't be part of it. It's as simple as that. Cops do it because they want to.
The job losses of the past year were largely explainable, usually from businesses that relied on the froth of the over-expanded FIRE sector in some way. Same with the housing meltdown - no one really believed, with any though, that housing in an undesirable area should command over 8x the local income.
The coming year is different. This year, the "real" jobs are going to disappear, and the compression of income/housing price metrics (from 8x to 4x in some more desirable areas) is going to squash quite a few equity positions on RE bought before 2003.
Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is. If you had any quality of character, you wouldn't be part of it. It's as simple as that. Cops do it because they want to.
I was not defending racial profiling.
I was saying there was no confirmation of racial profiling at the time the President was making this remark.
Are you suggesting that a white police officer should never be allowed to detain a black man, because "Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is." ?
Govt jobs at the state and local level of course, not the Feds.
The CLASS dynamics are being ignored. The cop was ( I assume) lower
middle class. The prof was upper middle to lower upper class.
The cop prolly deeply resented this.
I can understand it, tho I don't approve of it.
The cop prolly thought he could automatically intimidate the black
prof, and both became enraged as neither's expectations were
met. The cop would have wanted to intimidate a white prof just
as much, but wouldn't have dared to.
The wreck of a twenty-first century freighter
Was found in the silted-up harbor of Boston,
And also an office intact, a computer
Looking as new as when used, in the ruin
Furniture found there - exotic design,
One thinks of the ancients who carried on business
In centuries past, in time out of mind –
Did they have their own names? It’s anyone’s guess
The streets and the alleyways covered with rubble,
Grass and the forest to bury them all,
We see but a section, the slice of a bubble
Blown up by the eons to rise and to fall
Who were these creatures? They called themselves human,
Two legs and two arms, a head with a hat,
We know but the name of the city, it’s Boston
Or Beirut, or Beijing, or something like that
And we in our hives and our nests and our swarms
Our burrows and mounds will wish them good rest –
Though life must go on in its numerous forms
We honor the spirit no matter how dressed
Archaeological science is never
Precise as astronomy, physics or math,
And yet we assert it’s a worthy endeavor
To honor the old of the ages of wrath
The cop prolly thought he could automatically intimidate the black prof
The cop showed up because a neighbor called 911 saying two black males were breaking into the neighbor's house.
When the cop arrived, what he saw was two black males breaking into the house.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 4:03 pm
Are you suggesting that a white police officer should never be allowed to detain a black man, because "Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is." ?
No I'm saying I don't give a shit if they get a fair shake or not from El Presidente and no reason to see them as part of any "us" I'm in. I'm not part of the "OMG they are out there protecting me from the horrible druggo libbo babycannon welfare niggermonsters, let me worship them" segment of the population. Who cares if the president says bad things about them -- I have zero stake in their welfare. They eat my tax dollars and perpetrate injustice in exchange. I'm supposed to care someone said something bad about them why? THIS, THIS was the one time they were in the right? Oh, well in that case...
What I will suggest is that it's straight-up hilarious how a bunch of Republicans who fell all over themselves to flatly repudiate the rule of law during the Bush administration and elevate the president intoa semi-mythic figure, suddenly all find it incredibly necessary to defend the same rule of law that was "obsolete" (Yoo) and the product of that "goddamn piece of paper" Constitution (Bush). Which is it, guys? Ah, "whatever we want to excite the base," I understand.
Edit: And if you're a cop reading this being all offended right now, here's what i have to say to you -- I didn't start out where I'm standing right now, i was brought here by years of injustice by people in uniform. Deal.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 4:19 pm
Byz - Not every argument should involve Bush's crimes
Ones launched by hard core Republican ideologues about the sanctity of the rule of law certainly should. They didn't believe in it in 2002. Now it's the holy sacred secret bond that holds our society together? I would tend to agree -- in fact, my personal feeling is that the President screwed up -- but I didn't go "WAHOO, now we can TORTURE PEOPLE! OMG AWESOME! I think BUSH is like, a DEMIGOD, he should just be able to like, HAVE PEOPLE KILLED and DETAIN AMERICAN CITIZENS WITHOUT JUDICIAL PROCESS." just about 5 years ago. So they support detention without trial on his certification, but not the same guy gainsaying a patrol officer. Riiiight. I'll take "rubber morality" for $1000.
and not every cop is a bad cop
Yeah, some of them are fig leaves.
You put on that uniform every day, and you go out there to enforce a criminal justice system that produces the results that the modern American criminal justice system produces, you are either a criminal, a profiteer, or naif. I wish I could see it some other way, it would make me a lot more comfortable in my society, but it looks to me like a bunch of suckers getting convinced to cheer for a bunch of thugs beating up the Other while the real criminals make off with the wealth of the nation.
I suspect that post-fifty people reduce spending because earnings decline, not vice versa
Chicken or the egg.
They realize that most of the "winners" don't care about their succes because these "winners" are more concerned about how they are perceived.
Most people only play the game of keeping up so they can get a good job or not fall behind. After a while most people get sick of playing the game. Usually it's the insecure people who continue playing it.
The eyesight goes down so they don't bother with the makeup.
Then it's the waistline and all they care about is feeling comfortable. Sweats are more comfortable than suits.
By 55, most come to term with the fact that they can't beat the ageing process.
Many have sensitive stomachs so eating at home is easier on their body.
2/3 have no savings so they kind of have to slow down no matter what.
40% of 50+ are froced into retirement: sickness, layoff.
All of us are aware of the fact that UPs and DOWNs are the parts of market and after a great downward move the market starts climbing slightly in upward direction which can be hoped to be sign of little comfort as it put a stoppage in the shrinking economy to some extend.
An interesting article is http://www.housingnewslive.com/blog.php/Rise in the U.S. Housing Sales, fueling recovery hopes??
President "Bobby": Mr. Gardner, do you agree with Ben, or do you think that we can stimulate growth through temporary incentives?
[Long pause]
Chance the Gardener: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
Bottom dollar forecast- will we have real growth.
Someday this war's gonna end...
And here we plot the presumed nature of angels (A*) on Y against quantum on X, under constants that head of pin (z) and relevance (R!!) are null.
We are beginning similar work on global regressions although data problems may constrain progress in the short term.
C
How many pieces of strawmen can be loaded on the donkey's back before it can take the strain no longer?
1st 100 days - There are 2.9 million more people unemployed in May than there were unemployed in January. The unemployment rate went from 7.6% to 9.4%. Since May 2008, we have lost 5.5 million jobs. The biggest losers were:
Manufacturing 1.5 million lost
Finance & Prof Serv 1.5 million lost
Construction 1.1 million lost
Retail & Leisure 1.3 million lost
good finance articles http://www.bit.ly/12NCJR
Damn, CR.........what a doomer.........just make sure your new garden plot has plenty of southern exposure - allow as much space between zero lot line setbacks as is usually the norm in "the OC".....
Juvie- can I haz straws v peak load / capacity*donkey chartsez?
C
Consensus peak to trough real GDP decline of less than 4%? I don't need to read any further to know we are off this chart. Besides, all the "good recoveries" in the red circle are 30-50 years old.
Economists are strange people. I'd trust Conjure's dog bones and fetishes first.
Manufacturing 1.5 million lost
Finance & Prof Serv 1.5 million lost
Construction 1.1 million lost
Retail & Leisure 1.3 million lost
......how many government jobs did we lose?
Dawg - JK Galbraith on the purpose of economic forecasting at least got close...
C
(sorry, punchline for those playing at home - "is to make astrology look respectable".
Now that the Section 8 Years are history, the wide elephant party is playing pin the economic tale on the donkey to their constituency...
With no data, and with irrelevant history, I'd bet on some growth (1%?) by end of year, measured yr/yr, but with equal likelihood on reversion to decline compared to further increase. I'd rank unemployment as the biggest factor, followed by debt reduction (low consumption). I don't see a short-mid-term reversal largely because we don't have any prospects of growth sectors. Certainly not housing, or manufacturing, or finance, or even tech.
Rocky road ahead, and our cars are not off-road capable.
We dried up the rivers
And cut down the trees,
Depleted the soil
And killed all the bees.
We stole from our children
To buy our new cars,
Then outsourced their jobs
So we could keep ours.
By material measures
Our lives have been blessed.
"Mine!" is the mantra,
To hell with the rest.
Screw all the losers
Who can't get their own;
We can hardly be bothered
To toss them a bone.
The resources wasted
Would defy belief;
Our ethics and morals
Would embarrass a thief.
"The deeper the recession, the faster the recovery."
really? what data points were they using? only the last 30 years?
jd
its that last straw that you will have to watch out for
Speaking of 'growth' forecast, here's a big jump:
Commercial mortgage delinquency up 585%
Delinquencies on commercial mortgage backed securities soared $10 billion in June, hitting a 12-month high of almost $29 billion, according to Realpoint Research.
California led the nation with the highest amount of delinquent loans, closely followed by Texas and Florida.
Late loans across the country are up an “astounding” 585 percent from a year ago when just $4 billion were delinquent, reported the Horsham, Pa.-based research firm. The low point for delinquency was March 2007 when $2 billion was delinquent.
Commercial mortgage delinquency up 585% - Atlanta Business Chronicle:
....nice one, barfly.........mind if I save it?
CR
What about the "recovery" after the 30's???
Any data on Japanese recovery after the 90's?
Be my guest.
If we keep this up Krugman will cry. Again.
I think the Holmes scenario is likeliest--long, hard, and deep.
Barfly == Pavel, circa 1965
Post WWII.
The data supports the claim, so why wouldn't we have a "better than expected" recovery?
barfly-excellent..back it with some heavy G, C and D chords and post it on youtube...cha ching....
the pace of growth in the first year after a recession has, in our history, been reliably related to how bad the recession was. The deeper the recession, the faster the recovery.
This history seems to be limited to demand-shock driven recessions, followed by inventory adjustments.
I doubt this nice rule of thumb applies to balance-sheet / deleveraging driven recessions
broward - Read MrM. End user Demand has to come back and it won't... at least not as strong as it was before the downturn.
A lot small mostly immigrant businesses are shutting down in SF Bay. Can these people claim any sort of government assistance besides food stamps, and welfare?
Any data on Japanese recovery after the 90's?
Tim So Droll.
MrM - bingo. One element of why I start grinding my teeth in meetings when economists and traders mention inventory.
C
End user Demand has to come back and it won't.
I've learned over the years that "cause" and "effect" are very tricky things. Harry Dent's demographics theory is based on declining consumption for post-50 boomers.
What is cause?
What is effect?
Many years ago I read statistics which implied that my peak earning years would be mid-50s. But why are they peak? Are they peak because society's age discrimination? Or because of true productivity? Or because I've passed my child-bearing/producing age?
What's the real driver for declining consumption?
BEIJING (AP) - Some 30,000 Chinese steelworkers clashed with police in a protest over plans to merge their mill with another company and beat the company's general manager to death, a human rights monitor said Saturday.
My Way
@Tim waiting for 2012
These out of work immigrants are useless to us. But we don't have the money to send them back (plus they'll just come back again), unlike the japanese. /sarcasm off
"The government will pay thousands of dollars to fly Mrs. Yamaoka; her husband, who is a Brazilian citizen of Japanese descent; and their family back to Brazil. But in exchange, Mrs. Yamaoka and her husband must agree never to seek to work in Japan again. "
Goodbye, Honored Guest - NY Times
This is why econometrics is easy and economics is hard
Broward sez: What's the real driver for declining consumption?
IMO, when a person reaches a certain age (50 something or 60 something), they realize that they won't outlive many new purchases (durables) and that they don't have to play the 'style' game because sexual games aren't high on their agenda.
"Who cares if I wear 7 year old shirts?"
A Pensioner's Ditty - a reading:
pavel.libsyn.com
Get some fresh doom. See the future. Go long sunblock and seeds.
The chamber where we meet had been renovated fairly recently. Probably during the boom. Nice wood paneling, red velvet upholstery, and marble floors. The only spoiler was the brown water stain on the ceiling that had not been fixed. Paint was already starting to curl around the edges of the stain. Either the roof leaked or a large squirrel had taken a piss up there. I started sniffing the air. It had occurred to me that if it was squirrel piss I might be able to smell it. I wasn't sure exactly what squirrel piss smelled like though. Max gave me his "Knock off what ever crazy shit is going in your mind off and focus look." I really hated meetings, and this one had not even started yet.
for more: American Apocalypse
Broward
Demographics is crucial to economic cycles. We are approx 15-20 years behind Japan demographically. They peaked in 1989. We Peaked in 2005-2007 (IMO). Boomers transition from being spenders to savers and the earnings also decline as you age even if you are working.
The Economy is an oil tanker, The Swine Flu is a submarine. The Economy is about to take a torpedo beneath the water line.
broward - can you plot kidswiveshabitsrapacious landlords vs organizational sociology / timeearnings*general welfare log on a chart please?
C
(PS if you can do the chart in 3D it would be useful to include the final demand dimension. (globally) (should be ok if we can disagg faith, jurisprudence, history and culture separately) (TIA, love your work). How's Monday for you? Hope this is not unreasonable - I'm talking to the Asia team then. Have a great weekend.)
According to calculations by Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research the profile of the current recession is now almost identical to the decline in Britain's output between 1929 and 1931. The 5.6pc contraction over the past year almost matches the 5.8pc fall in the year preceding the second quarter of 1931, during which Credit Anstalt in Austria collapsed, triggering a second wave of economic seizure across Europe.
The recession is far deeper and more severe than those of the early 1980s and 1990s, Mr Weale added.
"Gordon Brown is now competing with Ramsay MacDonald – not a comparison he would much like," he said. "It looks as if we are pretty much tracking the 1930s,
British economic collapse rivals Great Depression - Telegraph
Are you Randy, Baby?
Postcards from Capetown
-Dow theory buy signal for the Boolz.
now, gimme some cowbell.
I'd Also argue that Japan had some advantages over the US too. Better education (argue whether they are less creative) growing exports in the 90's, trade surpluses, Gov't surpluses (before they spent it all), and the cheapest public sectors workers (relative to those in country in the private sector) in the developed world.
"Who cares if I wear 7 year old shirts?"
My boss and I had this discussion.
Boss, wearing a Tony Bahama. Me wearing a $12 rayon Hawaiian shirt from K-mart in SC.
Boss. That is an ugly shirt. My is much classier.
Me. Yep. But mine cost a lot less.
Boss. Where did you buy it? Kmart?
Me. Yep, $12 in SC
Boss: Jeebus. I bet it's rayon.
Me. Yep. I will be wearing this for years.
Boss. Sigh
they realize that they won't outlive many new purchases (durables)
I'm not seeing how this changes.
The lifespan of a car is the same, regardless of the owner's age.
I suspect that post-fifty people reduce spending because earnings decline, not vice versa.
I know that I would buy a new car given the income.
True, a lot of spending is ego-based, mate-attracting stuff and I ignore much of that.
My parents spend more on restaurants now than they did in their 30s or 40s or 50s.
Dent's demographics assume a certain behavior which is likely but not inevitable.
The worse they are the faster the recovery.
Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.
Sob.
Fact Check
between 1946-1983 spending was 63% of GDP
1983-2007 spending was just over 70% of GDP
If savings rate goes to 7% or 10% that would eliminate 1-1.3 Trillion 07' dollars from GDP and thus a 7-10% decline in GDP.
"Dent's demographics assume a certain behavior which is likely but not inevitable. "
That's true. It could've been that the baby boomers continued their spending well past the 60s, had it not been that we blew the housing bubble way too big, and now the loss of retirement/lack of credit has accelerated the spendthrift.
Recovery?
Carp Fishing on Valium? I don't think we are paying attention here.
I made this comment a few months ago talking about 'green shoots'. In talking to my customers (then) most were confident of a recovery this year but they themselves weren't spending (freely). My comment was you can't have one without the other. Fast forward to today and still no change. One of my tenants (my business anchors a strip) is a gossip queen who knows EVERYONE. I talked to her this morning about her business - terrible. Asked her did she know ANYONE doing well - no. Yesterday I called an excavator to give a heads up that I would need some rip rap in a few months. Their reply - we might not make it to then.
We might have a technical bounce this quarter but I sure ain't seeing it in my locale. Just more tumbling along the bottom that will eat everyone's cash/credit until they fail unless things start looking up in a big way...and SOON.
Broward
Your parents may spend more now but adjusted for inflation it may be about the same or less. also I am sure there are things they used to to when they were younger like take the "kids" places that they no longer participate in
Look at young people they spend a disproportionate amount of their incomes because they have to (things are more expensive in real terms than in your parents generation) and they are less spend thrift.
You are missing one thing, The black market will grow very well!
the earnings also decline as you age even if you are working.
Right.
Is this inevitable?
I don't think it's an inevitable result of an aging population.
There are systemic constraints on productivity which may be reflected in declining earnings for aging boomers.
It may be reflected back as declining income because there's less need to pay for children.
I'm debating this in my own life.
I could coast along on part-time work for the rest of my life if I wanted to.
I probably wouldn't accomplish my remaining goals, though.
OTOH, I'm not sure they're worthwhile or possible anyway.
I'm definitely less willing to deal with bullcrap and annoying "my hair is on fire" kids running around screaming about crap that doesn't matter. So my income & spending are down. But I could probably change it if I worked hard enough.
OTOH, there is significant age discrimination that I didn't anticipate.
And with those previous recessions, was mortgage equity withdrawal 9% of personal income, as it was here in Q42006 ?
Don't forget that many affluent households have lost one of their major income generators, the ability to repeatedly tap the rising "equity" in their homes.
We've left the era where Debt Equals Wealth, so our next leg up has to be based on some real wealth creation, which we forgot how to do.
What's the real driver for declining consumption?
Got kids? i'd imagine 50-ish is when the kids finally leave the financial nest, or at least used to.
Include health care back into the equation, I'm guessing that consumption increases at 65+.
nova - new line in advertising, a small tag for the hemline saying "My Other Shirt Is an Oxford Twill".
Maybe all shirts need bumper stickers.
I think by this way lies economic recovery.
No, no, don't interrupt, I'm on a roll here, hey team, uhhh, McCartney, China, 1795, um, bumper stickers, sales, vol vs qual, um, no I didn't kowtow you fkers, ooh I love brainstorming, umm lunch shirley hmm ham and cheese, pitch, margin, no New Cokes thanks, litigious risk, boom boom Rio Tinto inside joke... Lordy why have weekends when work is so much fun.
C
Black Dog
A lot of the stimulus package was tax cuts which I argue offer cheap short term thrills and more pain down the road. Companies large and small benefited greatly from the tax cuts. This will be temporary and is already factored in to forecasts
Broward
Most people who are comfortable as I am sure you are would choose not to spend esp if things look uncertain for the future. Also boomers have to think about their health, wear and tear.
I am sure there are things they used to to when they were younger like take the "kids" places that they no longer participate in
Don't think so.
They never took us anywhere.
Any good ideas out there for why so many economists continue to only use post-war data to make their arguments?
On the theory that most economists are afraid to state opinions too far outside the mainstream, shouldn't it be conventional wisdom by now that the current recession is materially different from any other post-war recession? Ben Bernanke obviously believes that to be the case, shouldn't that give the meek enough cover?
Basel
You are right that consumption increases after 65 for many people in the form of medical costs and you know that the gov't picks up most of that tab through Medicare.
So gov't will definitely have to increase spending from where we are now. Budget deficits will grow making Japan's balance sheet a thing of envy. We may be already there.
They never took us anywhere.
Just to the basement for beatings...
Broward
"took" is the operating word. Are your guys still going on family vacations together as often as you did when you were a child?
You had a basement?
Slightly OT:
For your viewing pleasure this evening.
Soylent Green starring Charlton Heston and a small man with big eyes whose name escapes me.
6 pm EST on the TCM channel.
On the other hand, if Alan Greenspan didn't blow the bubble so big, and baby boomers continued working, even though they were in good health, could they have not succumbed to the perils of outsourcing sooner or later? Surely, without credit, companies couldn't have been able to afford the baby boomer salaries.
Poooor broward.
Ok, my never answered question--how much of the economy can be devoted to
consumer spending?--is answered?
At 63%?
Seems too high.
Scrooge large companies like IBM are now accelerating "outsourcing" b/c their margins are coming under pressure
Quality matters less when you are talking about near term executive survival.
"As chief Federal law enforcement officer, Obama has a duty to keep his trap shut regarding specific cases or potential cases. "
The President's duty is to uphold the Constitution, which has a First Amendment and a Fourth Amendment. Part of that duty is to check unreasonable use of the police power, which will always be a threat to liberty.
Charges had been dropped when Obama said an officer had been stupid. Obama apologized for speaking without knowing all the facts, but no issue was pending. The President's statement is inadmissible in future cases. In any event the Fourth Amendment does not give any remedy for stupidity by a police officer and he and the government are probably immune from legal claims of stupidity. If the President is afraid to call an officer's actions stupid when he thinks so, he is not strong enough to control abuse by law enforcement. According to Bloomberg.com,"Obama said he had no regrets about stepping into the case. "
Good for him.
"how much of the economy can be devoted to consumer spending?"
is there a country with a stable economy in the past 20 years that we can measure against?
Vacations? basements? I guess we where poor.
Any good ideas out there for why so many economists continue to only use post-war data to make their arguments?
There is a huge cultural blind spot regarding the long-term credit cycle.
Lawyer Liz
63% was the average from 1946-1983. That was before teens had credit cards but the country was much younger then and wages steadily increased over that time
Now with the country aging and wages flat to down since 1983 I'd say it can go down to 58-60% easily. That is why I expect a 9-12% decline in US Gdp overall.
Liz I pitched this to CR and he says "no way" So take it for what it is.
A good argument that the police did what they are supposed to do in cases like this and that the President should not have rushed with his assessment of police actions
Police Discretion: A Different Perspective — Crooked Timber
Are your guys still going on family vacations together as often as you did when you were a child?
what the hell are you talking about?
We went camping which costs almost nothing.
That's not a vacation.
That's a punishment.
I still hate it, although my brother does the same thing to his own kids now.
The cycle of abuse.
"Quality matters less when you are talking about near term executive survival."
Agreed. Also, it matters less when your only goal is to get in, steal a bunch of stockholder's money, and leave.
Broward
I was just making a point that spending patterns shift as one gets older. Older couple may go on more cruises now than when they were younger but they have given up other activities such as outdoor sports and the like. Nothing personal.
I was just making a point that spending patterns shift as one gets older.
A report from 2002 on spending vs age:
http://www.uwex.edu/CES/CCED/downtowns/ltb/lets/0902LTB.pdf
@black dog
How's the occupancy rates in your CRE?
Strangely, the entire affair did not make the news in the Middle East, where there isn't much water right now, so I'm going on a cursory Bloomberg article. I would hope President has the strength of character to admit when he is wrong, even to Ari Fleischer. Reading the link, thanks...
Luxury! We used to dream of having a basement...
Hey Jp good link!
the data is from 2002 so many of peak spenders (b. 1946-55) are now in their declining years. Generation X coming behind the boomers is much smaller.
ifaforo7 (profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:01 pm
Hey everyone. I'm sorry I've been away. I've been having adventures I can't talk about. They're letting me play with lots of money though, and that's fun.
Any good ideas out there for why so many economists continue to only use post-war data to make their arguments?
On the theory that most economists are afraid to state opinions too far outside the mainstream, shouldn't it be conventional wisdom by now that the current recession is materially different from any other post-war recession?
No, because it's not just wanting to be part of the herd. It's wanting to be seen to think the right / popular thing. People like optimists. Ask Dylan Ratigan what being a truth sayer in the establishment will get you. There's an agenda in place, and if you are not working to talk things up, you are not "with the program".
This is a very powerful dynamic, and one I well expected, having seen it played out in Japan in the early 90s. People will be crowing about the incipient recovery quarter after quarter for the next three-five years.
Ben Bernanke obviously believes that to be the case, shouldn't that give the meek enough cover?
I spoke with some bankers this week, not small fry, but people who should have known enough to do their own analysis. I was asked to give my opinion on the medium term economic future, and when I articulated it, they looked at me like I was from Mars. It was like they had never considered the root mechanisms, they were just expecting a repetition of cyclical patterns.
I don't really agree with Broward's final conclusions but I have to say that the whole "this is becoming a conformist society that discourages independent thinking" thing appears to be 100% true.
While I have the mic, I'd like to give a big shout out to Nena Gang of Tampa, Florida. She's prominent in her circles and so you'll know her if you know her. She really helped me out in a situation that offered no reward, and she gave me a very significant hand. I dunno what she's like in general, but she was a real peach to me for no good reason other than general friendliness. Thanks, Nena.
spending patterns shift as one gets older
I was joking around, I rarely take anything here personally.
I know that spending patterns shift.
But I don't see that a huge reduction in standard of living is inevitable.
There's a massive waste of man hours even now, many jobs produce nothing.
A great deal of the economy is ego-based, minor variations of products or services which don't really matter.
My brother was in Japan last year for a week.
He said that despite their 20-year decline, the country seemed okay overall.
"Soylent Green starring Charlton Heston and a small man with big eyes whose name escapes me."
Edward G. Robinson.
A film about a possible future.
"Soylent Green starring Charlton Heston and a small man with big eyes whose name escapes me."
Memorable line: The oceans are dying.
BR
"This is a very powerful dynamic, and one I well expected, having seen it played out in Japan in the early 90s. People will be crowing about the incipient recovery quarter after quarter for the next three-five years. "
Agree 100% We will be spinning are wheels not sure why we are not going anywhere. stuck in mud.
Broward
I agree people over 45 IMO don't have a lot to worry about Those under 45 do. They won't reach their parents levels of living.
the whole "this is becoming a conformist society that discourages independent thinking" thing appears to be 100% true.
It's a cost issue.
The up-cycle rewards diversity because you can make a net profit by pursuing marginal gains.
The down-cycle punishes diversity because it's become a net loser, you've overshot the "marginal gain vs marginal cost" breakpoint because marginal cost increases as marginal gain declines.
It reflects back into culture.
There's definitely a societal cost, very hard to quantify, associated with diversity.
I deal with a minor model of this in software, I know it fairly well by now.
@McDuck
I'm at 100% occupancy. But only because I slashed rent 27% for everyone january 1st. But even that hasn't stopped competitors trying to poach them. Thankfully, I've got a great location and bend over backwards for my tenants.
"Thankfully, I've got a great location and bend over backwards for my tenants."
Downward facing dog??
We are well into our third "second half recovery." Does that mean we are getting closer or does repeated failure make it a little harder each time?
Rob Dawg
Ask Bernanke it gets easier over time to be wrong.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:27 pm
There's definitely a societal cost, very hard to quantify, associated with diversity.
I disagree with the conclusion -- I think it's related to social defense in marginal situations and not wanting to be placed into an outgroup and typically it is costly and destructive to the organization but profitable to the conformist.
Regardless of the mechanism in place, there's a real obvious aversion to being seen to think too much or too freely.
The president is simultaneously a legal office as well as a political one.
IMO, the merits of the former don't justify the political costs of the latter, given the he-said/she-said facts of this case.
@black dog
woot. congrats
Dawg,
"Uncle" dug it to hide us when social services came by.
uhh,... being a dog does have certain advantages.
With Rush on the radio,
And Beck on the tube,
Is thought even possible
For the average rube?
O'Billious spews out
And creates such a stink,
Making mountains from mole-hills
It's impossible to think.
With force-fed opinions
We go through the day
Secure in our knowledge
Come ever what may.
If ever a thought
Could break through the din
How would the loudmouths
Continue to win?
I disagree with the conclusion
You can if you want to, it make no difference to me.
I will suggest to you that you're suffering from a cultural meme.
Most Americans are brainwashed that "Diversity == Good" without asking why.
Why is it good?
If you ask why, then you get the answer of why and when it's not good.
But we dont' want to go there because...
"Diversity == good"
Always.
It's very easy to show that diversity creates ever greater discontinuity in communication.
When you have no shared context and values, you have no communication.
The country will re-gell back into some set of socially acceptable behavior which will probably be fare more restrictive than what we're used to. Something like the 1950s.
"The country will re-gell back into some set of socially acceptable behavior which will probably be fare more restrictive than what we're used to. Something like the 1950s."
But we'll all be mexicans?
No, I see fracturing. Bush's election, the first one was really about color and class.
From the article linked by MrM above:
"It is possible to do a lawful thing that is stupid, and that is why officers have discretion in many cases. While it can be misused, discretion is there to prevent them from stupidly enforcing the letter of the law. That the arrest was unwise and imprudent has also been made clear by how quickly the charges were dropped and the apologies issued by the government of Cambridge."
"The police need to foster an environment in which they can deliver public safety without being subject to obscenities, accusations and yelling from any party, even innocent parties. "
--- First commenter to article: "Wait, doesn’t this misstate the timeline? I thought it was pretty clearly established that Gates was not asked to exit and speak to the officer on the porch until after it had been established that he was the owner of the home. That would make the decision to invite him on the porch unjustifiable in terms of safety and ease of arrest, as no legitimate arrest would, at that stage, have been planned. As this writeup says, it might make sense to talk to a “suspect” on the porch. The officer concedes that at the time of the request that Gates move to the porch, Gates was no longer a suspect...."
Case closed. Gates had every right to be enraged, and the President has a duty to control police abuse. Bad things happen to professors in jail, especially when the guards are underpaid. Bad things also happen to black people while detained by police.
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:39 pm
Most Americans are brainwashed that "Diversity == Good" without asking why.
Determinism is the pitfall in the roadway of collective analysis.
The reason that conformism is bad is being made manifest in front of you -- you have a society that can't stop making the same mistakes again and again. Leave it to Beaver is not the issue, you can see it on a much larger scale with the inability to frame an answer to the current policy crisis that can't be reduced to "spend til u win". It's what made the Japanese unable to address the crisis in the 90s as well. A conformist context leaves you with a narrow range of acceptable policies and if they're wrong, you die while punishing the people who are actually working on finding a solution.
I mean, look a the modern Republican party. Perfect example, and one of the major engines of the problem in America today. They're much more interested in discovering who isn't Christian enough, white-wing enough, law-and-order enough, low-taxes enough, conformist enough than in taking so much as a single step down the road to self-analysis. Why should they, the answer is clear -- do the same thing more, faster and harder and whip all the doubting Thomases out of the fold.
Identity is an invention. It is both self-devised and externally-suggested. Nothing about the process of identity-formation and selection has the slightest relationship to if the identity represents a menu of viable real-world policy choices. As you should well know, since you pillory the Randroids enough for the dogmatic adherence to some nonsense they got enchanted with one time. there is no identity that is anything but that, it's just that some of them happen to work.
I used to work with a guy who retired from Baltimore Homocide. Worked as an investigator for the Senate Commitee on Organized Crime. Then came to work for us. Everytime he drove to Florida he was usually stopped at least once. Yes, he is black.
nova (homepage, profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 2:52 pm
Then came to work for us. Everytime he drove to Florida he was usually stopped at least once. Yes, he is black.
Well he should expect it, being one of Those People. I'm sure he's not one of those welfare babycannon crack-smoking buck negroes that are always leading white wimmin astray, but they need to check, you know?
Well he should expect it, being one of Those People. I'm sure he's not one of those welfare babycannon crack-smoking buck negroes that are always leading white wimmin astray, but they need to check, you know?
Yeah, he knew. He just didn't like it a lot.
at least Robert Reich is honest....
Globalization - Salon.com
The X marks a brand new track -- a new economy. What will it look like? Nobody knows. All we know is the current economy can't "recover" because it can't go back to where it was before the crash. So instead of asking when the recovery will start, we should be asking when and how the new economy will begin. More on this to come.
broward, I suspect stages of mental maturation play a role in our personal economics. It's an editing process.
One by one, all the reasons for spending - and eventually earning itself - come under review. At some point, you may find aspirations provided more pleasure than the accomplished fact did. Not true of everything, hence the idea of editing. Family wins out over a number of things. Comfort over luxury. And so on.
Homocide. Wow. It's come to that?
Washington's Dilemma: This Isn't a Recession, It's a Collapse
CRE getting crushed ( plenty of CR posts on this)
RRE still tanking e.g. 4.3 million units added to rental inventory + vacant U.S. homes at 18.7 million
Wages deflating so Consumer spending going down
Unemployment continues to grow with U6 likely at 20% across USA
Underemployment is growing faster than unemployment
perhaps somebody can weigh in on Blinder's article in the WSJ today. To summarize he says that since we have had certain sectors drop by as much as 30% once they bottom and inventory liquidation ceases we could see a big bounce back in growth. He is assuming that all those aspects contributing towards growth will continue on their current trajectory and as the drag gets eliminated growth results.
Here is my problem with that line of reasoning- the Federal deficit has gone from 2.5% of GDP to 7% and is now projected at 12%. (fiscal 2009-2010) Even if the deficit were to remain at its current level (absolute dollars) it would be a drag on GDP growth and any bounce back in the depressed sectors would be dwarfed by the fiscal drag. Blinder is right with regard to the the last half of this year and the first half of 2010 but after that there would have to be an enormous bounce back in the private sector to offset the fact that the 2011 Federal deficit is not going to 2.8TN without there being other consequences.
Have you ever worked in the energy industry? I swear you remind me of someone...
Jeebus nova - it's such a lovely day, has the Bad Thing come to Fairfax today!?
Ps Hi Byz - nice apocalypso for a weekend.
C
The President spoke
Straight from the hip
And gave all the pundits
On something to trip.
"The policeman was stupid",
The President said
In his disarming way
Never fearing to tread.
He made a small joke
As part of his thought,
That if it'd been him
He'd probly be shot.
I like a man
Who means what he says
And doesn't back down
In spite of the press.
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 3:06 pm
Ps Hi Byz - nice apocalypso for a weekend.
I'm in a fine mood, I just think Broward has read The Iron Dream one too many times. =)
Byz - Iron Dream?? Ooh, is it apocalyptic?
Ah whatever, a nice walk in the trees will fix everything. Bye and by...
C
(OMFG, just remembered I said this mid September 08 on this board and someone teased me about Ents. Well, we all know what happened next....)
Good ole CR!
Break from painting in the heat wave, and lots of entertaining banter.
My aunt & uncle were a mixed race couple (he was black, but dead now....guess he's no color anymore), got married in the late 60's. His family were all college educated middle class, but they had to live in the hood while renting, because no one would rent to a mixed couple then. Their cracker-ass neighbors used to sit on their front porch and sing Old Black Joe & other negro favorites.
I remember going to the candy store with my mixed cousins. Us little white kids would get all the smiles, they would get taken to task as if they were shoplifters. Never mind all the crap uncle had to deal with any time the police were needed. First thing he had to do was establish that he was the one who called them, not the perpetrator....
Counterpointer (profile) wrote on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 3:27 pm
Byz - Iron Dream?? Ooh, is it apocalyptic?
It's a book where Norman Spinrad writes a science fiction novel as Adolf Hitler. it's a good read albeit probably not very much like an actual book Hitler might have written. In that, I'm really teasing, but, conformism is an irrationalist philosophy. it's about making the people who practice it feel good, not about achieving policy goals.
-yogi: I think there is still fair amount of controversy about timing - from the same set of comments, this one by the author of of the original post:
As for issues of timeline, my understanding is that the sergeant asked Gates to step onto the porch first thing. Later on, he also stated that Gates would have to follow him outside if he had any further business because he was leaving. This is when he said Gates enetered a public place and allegedly became disorderly. The account is open to question, naturally. The extent to which he baited Gates outside and the extent to which Gates pursued him are both very relevant, but will likely remain unknown.
Anyway, the issue is not about the extent to which yelling at the police bothers or insults the police. The issue is the extent to which it causes a genuine state of alarm and annoyance that nearby citizens have the right to be free from, and the extent to which it makes it difficult, as a practical matter (because police are people), to conduct a proper investigation of the incident at hand. The disorderly conduct statute and the one that prohibits obstructing governmental administration are not meant to work as deterrents, but are instead remedies to an ongoing problem that must be addressed. The fact that they are often dropped as charges speaks not only to the robust rights citizens enjoy, but also to the degree to which the courts view these types of arrests as such remedies. The power to physically remove people from a messy situation they’re perpetuating can be abused, and should not be taken lightly, but is useful even in a democracy.
Anyone who persisently screams at a doctor, nurse, lawyer or IRS agent will either be sedated, or strapped to his gurney, or wheeled away, or ejected from the location by security. Nobody will expect the practitioner to continue rendering his or her services in such an environment. Please do not underestimate the unique and challenging work environment of the police officer.
The police officer may or may not have abused his power, Prof. Gates may or may not have behaved disorderly - none of this has been established. The President cannot rush with judgment based only on hearsay. At the very least, Obama should have enclosed his comment with a ton of caveats.
MrM-
I heard the comment on NPR that Obama seemed "tired" during the healthcare/Gates interview. This stuns me....with so much at stake, how can you be tired?
When is this situation going to get enough attention to drive itself out of its inertia?
Byz- really? I'm never going to read it because I don't have time for it, but are you sure that conformism is irrational? My concern is not that it's irrational, which I would agree it is, and gigantic systems have been premised on it, but that fundamentally it's unsustainable.
Herds do dumb stuff. If yr in one and it's not working well, what the heckinfak do you do? Hey, call the no clothes thing on the emp and see how many onward assignments come in, huh?
C
Just came back from stimulating the economy at the health food
store. Seemed to have a steady stream of customers.
Decide for yourself if the President appears tired.
Presidential News Conference - C-SPAN Video Library
My first year at law school in Miami in the late 80's (the police force was not integrated, only on "Miami Vice"), I lent my car to a friend when I went back to New York on vacation. He is black, wears a Muslim headcover, and his dress and demeanor in no way led one to believe he was a law student . He was out late with 3 black friends, 2 women. He never got drunk, so I never even asked about it. He got pulled over for speeding.
The '75 Buick Regal (a fine clunker) was registered to a 'Betty Rosenberg' in West Palm Beach. I hadn't remembered to give him the registration or insurance card. The white officer listened to the explanation, obtained the number and called my grandmother, a light sleeper but completely ignorant of the fact I had just lent someone the car she had given me and had yet to register in my name as promised. She said yes, she was "loaning" me the car and I was a law student so there was no problem. (So smart).
A white classmate was talking to some girls on the sidewalk at a Spring Break party in Fort Lauderdale when an officer told him brusquely to "keep moving" (for no apparent reason). He quietly asked for the (white) officer's badge number. Then he was arrested. My roommate (white) asked "what station are you taking him to?" Then he was arrested. Both held overnight for disorderly conduct, charges dropped later. Suing the Department or city was not practical. Other than having to explain the arrest to the Bar, ongoing resentment of the arrogance of the police, who were not about to issue an apology to students with no White House connections, damages were minimal.
Sometimes stupidity is just stupidity.
Lord. If you are in a herd, you don't do something crazy.
What you do is be sneaky.
You go just a tiny bit slower and edge on over to the side, and
don't let anyone see what you are doing and hope that you
manage to make it to the edge when the herd thunders
over the cliff.
Herding works a lot. If it hadn't worked it would have been selected
out.
Police officers go after the low hanging fruit.
I mean, if you couldn't bully people, why would you
want to be a police person?
I was totally underwhelmed my mom's experiences,
and she is cute little old white lady.
Profiling is hurtful to those being profiled because it takes anecdotes or even statistics and applies them indiscriminately to the whole group.
Same is true about profiling of racial profiling - just because some police officers some place some time did something, it does not mean that the same assumption about racial bias should apply to any police incident where the officer was white and the civilian was black, even before facts are established.
As to spending, I don't see that we older bloomers are spending any less money.
We just ordered a bunch of curtains. I'm planning to buy some rugs, and in the fall
we will redo the pool. At some point his car will die or he will decide that he has
saved enough to buy a new one.
We don't spend as much on eating out, but that's cuz my mom treats us a lot.
So far the downturn has caused me grief only by bringing me clients with much
sadder stories than usual. They are still paying tho.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 3:54 pm
Same is true about profiling of racial profiling - just because some police officers some place some time did something, it does not mean that the same assumption about racial bias should apply to any police incident where the officer was white and the civilian was black, even before facts are established.
The system is a giant rape machine for putting blacks in jail so that nervous white geezers can have someone to cheer for while the oligarchs rob them. Look at the incarceration statistics.
Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is. If you had any quality of character, you wouldn't be part of it. It's as simple as that. Cops do it because they want to.
The job losses of the past year were largely explainable, usually from businesses that relied on the froth of the over-expanded FIRE sector in some way. Same with the housing meltdown - no one really believed, with any though, that housing in an undesirable area should command over 8x the local income.
The coming year is different. This year, the "real" jobs are going to disappear, and the compression of income/housing price metrics (from 8x to 4x in some more desirable areas) is going to squash quite a few equity positions on RE bought before 2003.
I betcha we do see a big bunch of gov't jobs lost next quarter.
There are cutting like crazy here.
Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is. If you had any quality of character, you wouldn't be part of it. It's as simple as that. Cops do it because they want to.
I was not defending racial profiling.
I was saying there was no confirmation of racial profiling at the time the President was making this remark.
Are you suggesting that a white police officer should never be allowed to detain a black man, because "Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is." ?
Wow, Barfly. Wow. Your first one was especially impressive.
I betcha we do see a big bunch of gov't jobs lost next quarter.
Liz - I assume you were talking about local and state gov't jobs, not including federal. Is that right?
Govt jobs at the state and local level of course, not the Feds.
The CLASS dynamics are being ignored. The cop was ( I assume) lower
middle class. The prof was upper middle to lower upper class.
The cop prolly deeply resented this.
I can understand it, tho I don't approve of it.
The cop prolly thought he could automatically intimidate the black
prof, and both became enraged as neither's expectations were
met. The cop would have wanted to intimidate a white prof just
as much, but wouldn't have dared to.
"Ps Hi Byz - nice apocalypso for a weekend."
THE AGES OF WRATH
The wreck of a twenty-first century freighter
Was found in the silted-up harbor of Boston,
And also an office intact, a computer
Looking as new as when used, in the ruin
Furniture found there - exotic design,
One thinks of the ancients who carried on business
In centuries past, in time out of mind –
Did they have their own names? It’s anyone’s guess
The streets and the alleyways covered with rubble,
Grass and the forest to bury them all,
We see but a section, the slice of a bubble
Blown up by the eons to rise and to fall
Who were these creatures? They called themselves human,
Two legs and two arms, a head with a hat,
We know but the name of the city, it’s Boston
Or Beirut, or Beijing, or something like that
And we in our hives and our nests and our swarms
Our burrows and mounds will wish them good rest –
Though life must go on in its numerous forms
We honor the spirit no matter how dressed
Archaeological science is never
Precise as astronomy, physics or math,
And yet we assert it’s a worthy endeavor
To honor the old of the ages of wrath
Pavel
July 25, 2009
Thank you, Bond Girl.
hard to think of two more inherently obnoxious entities than a celebrity ivy prof and a Mass-hole cop
edit - a Mass-hole cop at a red sox game. that's more obnoxious.
Dueling poems.
Barfly and Pavel.
Hurrah, hurrah.
Rats
The cop prolly thought he could automatically intimidate the black prof
The cop showed up because a neighbor called 911 saying two black males were breaking into the neighbor's house.
When the cop arrived, what he saw was two black males breaking into the house.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 4:03 pm
Are you suggesting that a white police officer should never be allowed to detain a black man, because "Being black is not a voluntary association. Being a cop is." ?
No I'm saying I don't give a shit if they get a fair shake or not from El Presidente and no reason to see them as part of any "us" I'm in. I'm not part of the "OMG they are out there protecting me from the horrible druggo libbo babycannon welfare niggermonsters, let me worship them" segment of the population. Who cares if the president says bad things about them -- I have zero stake in their welfare. They eat my tax dollars and perpetrate injustice in exchange. I'm supposed to care someone said something bad about them why? THIS, THIS was the one time they were in the right? Oh, well in that case...
What I will suggest is that it's straight-up hilarious how a bunch of Republicans who fell all over themselves to flatly repudiate the rule of law during the Bush administration and elevate the president intoa semi-mythic figure, suddenly all find it incredibly necessary to defend the same rule of law that was "obsolete" (Yoo) and the product of that "goddamn piece of paper" Constitution (Bush). Which is it, guys? Ah, "whatever we want to excite the base," I understand.
Edit: And if you're a cop reading this being all offended right now, here's what i have to say to you -- I didn't start out where I'm standing right now, i was brought here by years of injustice by people in uniform. Deal.
pavel - beautiful poesy, I'm now off for my threatend walk down the Capital Cresc Trail.
C
I bow to the master.
barfly - before I lock the door and go, it's not a competition, it's an addition.
C
Yep. I misspoke.
Byz - Not every argument should involve Bush's crimes, and not every cop is a bad cop
MrM: responded next thread. In and out so haven't read all comments but interested in the issue.
MrM (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Sat, 7/25/2009 - 4:19 pm
Byz - Not every argument should involve Bush's crimes
Ones launched by hard core Republican ideologues about the sanctity of the rule of law certainly should. They didn't believe in it in 2002. Now it's the holy sacred secret bond that holds our society together? I would tend to agree -- in fact, my personal feeling is that the President screwed up -- but I didn't go "WAHOO, now we can TORTURE PEOPLE! OMG AWESOME! I think BUSH is like, a DEMIGOD, he should just be able to like, HAVE PEOPLE KILLED and DETAIN AMERICAN CITIZENS WITHOUT JUDICIAL PROCESS." just about 5 years ago. So they support detention without trial on his certification, but not the same guy gainsaying a patrol officer. Riiiight. I'll take "rubber morality" for $1000.
and not every cop is a bad cop
Yeah, some of them are fig leaves.
You put on that uniform every day, and you go out there to enforce a criminal justice system that produces the results that the modern American criminal justice system produces, you are either a criminal, a profiteer, or naif. I wish I could see it some other way, it would make me a lot more comfortable in my society, but it looks to me like a bunch of suckers getting convinced to cheer for a bunch of thugs beating up the Other while the real criminals make off with the wealth of the nation.
Cambridge Cop lower middle class? I read on the Boston rag that his salary is $175,000./yr
Lower middle class in Boston is probably $45K.
....well, there's no law against being stupid in Cambridge....................just ask Gates.............and his friend........what's his name?
I suspect that post-fifty people reduce spending because earnings decline, not vice versa
Chicken or the egg.
They realize that most of the "winners" don't care about their succes because these "winners" are more concerned about how they are perceived.
Most people only play the game of keeping up so they can get a good job or not fall behind. After a while most people get sick of playing the game. Usually it's the insecure people who continue playing it.
The eyesight goes down so they don't bother with the makeup.
Then it's the waistline and all they care about is feeling comfortable. Sweats are more comfortable than suits.
By 55, most come to term with the fact that they can't beat the ageing process.
Many have sensitive stomachs so eating at home is easier on their body.
2/3 have no savings so they kind of have to slow down no matter what.
40% of 50+ are froced into retirement: sickness, layoff.
Test.
Hello All!
All of us are aware of the fact that UPs and DOWNs are the parts of market and after a great downward move the market starts climbing slightly in upward direction which can be hoped to be sign of little comfort as it put a stoppage in the shrinking economy to some extend.
An interesting article is http://www.housingnewslive.com/blog.php/Rise in the U.S. Housing Sales, fueling recovery hopes??