The Big Easy

Proof you can throw $ at a problem

Barfly

"The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in our stars but in ourselves."

Mississippi, leading economic indicator

that second graph....
hey, I saw that play wasn't it called MacBeth
and had 3 weird sisters in it?

Timmy Waiting
Dan Q's hair was real in the 70s after that I don't know
his borther ran our local paper in Indiana, was a former
EMS guy
dumb as stone, believe!

OT, because I missed all the California budget commentary:

The governator and the California legislative leaders did just what I thought they would: cobbled together an agreement that'll allow the whole shabby enterprise to limp along for a few more months. As somebody said, it's all about being able to sell the bonds; with the agreement, they may have the cred to do so, even if it later dies the death of 1000 knives in court.

So, no Armageddon this summer, nor any solution. But perhaps a period of time for California voters to experience what "living within their means" is, when the means are constricted and constrained by various special-interest legalities. This could do the initial groundwork for a new political reality -- and in California, whatever side of the ideological spectrum you're on, that could be seen as progress...

" Comrade Elmer Fudd (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 11:39 am

Mississippi, leading economic indicator"

On the other hand, Mississippi is one state that could really put their stimulus money to good use. You don't hear about it that much, but they've been reeling from Katrina. It seems that New Orleans gets all of the attention.

Whoo Hoo!!!! Go Mississippi State! Errrrrr. State of Mississippi!!!

Stupid is just as dangerous as evil.

The release shows Pennsylvania -11.0% yoy. That's called a depression by anyone's standard.

Hank Paulsen one year ago today

"Of course the list is going to grow longer given the stresses we have in the marketplace, given the housing correction. But again, it's a safe banking system, a sound banking system. Our regulators are on top of it. This is a very manageable situation," he said in broadcast interviews.

RD

After we look back 2-3 years from today I think we will have seen GDP declines in real terms of 11% across the nation.

"
lifeguard1999 (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 11:47 am

Really what you are seeing in MS is the fact that

1) we got whacked by Katrina in 2005, and we have been rebuilding with federal dollars ever since.
2) we had much less of a housing bubble than anyone else. I guess it is because of the mosquitoes."

Nothing like a hurricane to take care of excess housing inventory.

Breaking News:
Financial Mafia still busting out America.

Satan discloses in interview "Ben Bernanke is indeed evil"

More details soon...

"..I just don't see him (BB) as evil. "

believe it or not, i dont think he is evil either.

he is an academic, and (IMO) he honestly thinks he is doing what is best.

ugh....academics.......

"Yes I noted Benny's stock market comments as well. What has the stock market got to do whatsoever with his job?"

BB is a big proponent of the "animal spirits" concept of economics. He believes that the Great Depression was worsened by "herd behavior", and that by propping up the stock market, he can get the herd moving back in the right direction. Stock market gains lead to improved confidence which leads to economic growth.

I think he is wrong. An economy is more like a company in my opinion - if you consume more than you produce, eventually you will fail. And we are on the road to failure.

History will look back on this era as a very dark time, and the attempts at manipulating a broken underlying economy as not only a failure, but a lost opportunity for structural change.

"I guess I need to get my eyes checked. It looks to me like SD is the top performing state. "

Yes, you do. That's North Dakota.

OT from earlier CIT thread:

By not getting involved, the administration gambled that CIT was not so enmeshed with the financial system as companies like Citigroup, Bank of America and others banks that accepted federal bailout money, analysts said.

"The government's sitting there saying, 'If this doesn't set off a meltdown of the financial system, there's no rationale to bailing out creditors,'" said Daniel Alpert, managing director of the investment bank Westwood Capital LLC.

Clipped from Yahoo Finance article.

Clearly, CIT needs a CEO who can really whip DC into a frenzy about the perceived threat of systemic collapse. Citi, BoA, etc. were very effective in covincing the pols that the world would end without massive intervention. CIT just didn't sell it hard enough.

I've always wanted to move to North Dakota and now looks like the perfect time to make my wish come true.

"Yes I noted Benny's stock market comments as well. What has the stock market got to do whatsoever with his job?"

ALL politicians are slaves to polls despite what they say. I guess it is not really surprising that we went up (with GS and JPM leading the way).

March 3 comments from BO.

"What I'm looking at is not the day-to-day gyrations of the stock market, but the long-term ability for the United States and the entire world economy to regain its footing. And, you know, the stock market is sort of like a tracking poll in politics. It bobs up and down day to day, and if you spend all your time worrying about that, then you're probably going to get the long-term strategy wrong."

...

"On the other hand, what you're now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you've got a long-term perspective on it. I think that consumer confidence -- as they see the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act taking root, businesses are starting to see opportunities for investment and potential hiring, we are going to start creating jobs again."

Remarks by President Obama and Prime Minister Brown after Meeting | The White House

Everyone remember when the FDIC went to Puerto Rico?

Calculated Risk: Report: 200 FDIC Agents Arrive in Puerto Rico

Go to page 208 of the SIGTARP quarterly report....and check out the 400MM we gave First BanCorp in Jan09.

TheTreasury market is having a huge move to lower yields as we speak. i will eventually get to Bernanke but there is not enough substance in his testimony to justify the price action.

There has been central bank buying throughout the morning in the 3 year through 7 year part of the curve.

The Open Market Desk is intervening in the market as I pen this by purchasing 2016 through 2019 paper.

The market is very thin and the combination of central bank buying and Fed buying has shorts on the run.

Traders continue to report that the market is thin and illiquid and small blocks will cause sharp price movements.
[hat tip] 

What an insult to the people of Massachusetts.

The problem is , not to the people of Mass....they continue to vote for some of the strangest things....

I might be movin' to Montana soon
Just to raise me up a crop of Dental Floss Raisin' it up
Waxen it down
In a little white box
I can sell uptown
By myself I wouldn't
Have no boss,
But I'd be raisin' my lonely Dental Floss
Raisin' my lonely Dental Floss
Well I just might grow me some bees
But I'd leave the sweet stuff
For somebody else...
but then, on the other hand
I'd Keep the wax N' melt it down
Pluck some Floss N' swish it aroun'
I'd have me a crop
An' it'd be on top

Frank Zappa

Haven't you heard "The economic fire is now out" according to Pres O

And Bernanke says he's now ready to take on SuperFly I mean Supercop Role;)

"why do you guys even watch that crap"

40 years from now I want to be able to say I had a front seat at the collapse of the US empire, and wasn't unaware of what was happening at the time.

Ben Bernanke's new role
YouTube - Original Superfly Trailer

40 years from now I want to be able to say I had a front seat at the collapse of the US empire, and wasn't unaware of what was happening at the time.

I mean....Hoocoodanode....right?

Why Do Home Foreclosures Keep Rising? 6 Things You Need to Know

Why Do Home Foreclosures Keep Rising? 6 Things You Need to Know - Yahoo! Real Estate

We talk about green shoots or about things getting worse at a slower rate, but this is one thing that is getting worse month by month," says Patrick Newport, an economist for IHS Global Insight.

Here are six things you need to know about the rise in home foreclosures:
1. Unemployment
2. Plunging home values
3. End of foreclosure moratoriums
4. Is Obama's plan working?:
5. Mounting political pressure
6. Foreclosure outlook

Thanks to Aleister, I took a quick look at some of the FRED data (St. Louis Fed).

The ratio of (Net Loan Losses) to (Average Total Loans) for the U.S. banks is now substantially worse than it was during the S&L crisis. CR's usual point that "we ain't seen nothing" this time (in terms of bank closures), while true, is not based on the right metric.
And of course, most of the loan losses have not yet been recognized (right, CIT?)...

St. Louis Fed: Series: NCOCMC, Commercial Net Loan Charge-offs 

Unfortunately this data series only goes back to 1984 or so...

BofA May Face $12 Billion Credit Cards Charge: KBW

Bank of America may incur a $12 billion pretax charge in the first quarter of 2010 to comply with an accounting rule governing how it records credit card losses, an analyst said on Monday.

Jefferson Harralson, an analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, wrote that the charge relates to $150 billion of credit card receivables, home equity securitizations and asset-backed conduits that will move onto the largest U.S. bank's balance sheet

Cramer: Why You Should Buy Stocks Now

just damn.....

"because the recruiters get paid per recruit, and the military needs warm bodies."

Not unlike the subprime mortgage industry! A quick substitution:

"because the brokers get paid per loan, and the securitizers needed warm bodies"

We're all subprime now, even the Marines!

July 21, 1930

Governor R.A. Young of Fed. Reserve Bd. warns banks to be careful about the increasing amount of loans against securities. About the crash last fall, says: “there is food for serious thought in the fact that, under our excellent banking system ... we nevertheless came to the brink of a collapse, had to resort to heroic action to prevent a panic, and were not able to avoid ...

News from 1930 

"Anyone seen this article in the WSJ? Pay of Top Earners Erodes Social Security"

It is a regressive tax, like most of them.

You don't have to make SS contributions once your earnings are high enough. It is safe to say that the Goldman Bonuses are 90% untapped by social security taxes and that Hank paid no social security on his $200 million windfall. Nice of the taxpayers to fund their lavish lifestyles. CHeck out this congressthing putting Hank on his heels about three minutes in when he asks hank if he took the federal job because it exempted him from taxes on the sale of his Goldman shares.

Zero Hedge: Paulson Pwned

Our country is a corporate penal colony. These monkeys are crooked jailers.

The Governator strikes a budget deal. Seems to have been priced into the markets, already:

Schwarzenegger, California Lawmakers Agree to Budget (Update2) - Bloomberg.com

I do agree that Cramer is evil--and stupid--and wildly successful.
if we can figure out why he could fool most of the people, most of the time, we might know how to fix the system. Methinks Marshall McLuhan knew this was going to happen--as did Woody Allen.

Where does everyone get this 200MM number from?

He sold 462MM when he left GS...and it was all exempt from capital gains tax.

Clarry: The terms data warehousing and business intelligence are familiar in my industry. You talk and write a lot about business wisdom; what do you mean by “business wisdom”?

Lippitt: Let’s start with the U.S. financial crisis. It does not take a rocket scientist to know that the more mortgages you make, the more profit the organization has the potential to earn. However, how many financial institutions understood the risk of what could happen if a homeowner owes more than the house is worth? How many financial institutions saw the advantage of increasing their “leverage” by extending a loan, but did not see the potential problems with having to foreclose on homes when the homeowner could not pay the mortgage?

Wisdom means making a smart decision for the short- and long-term. A wise leader knows it is crucial to ask all relevant questions, to weigh the information appropriately and to make a choice that serves all key stakeholders. Instead, banks seem to have “cloned” each other’s business strategy and entered into either sub-prime loans or “liar loans” without really assessing the liabilities. Some leaders felt that since everyone was doing it, it must be okay. And we all know that this kind of thinking leads to problems, not excellence.

And what do we get....another dog and pony show by BB and the mostly assclowns in Congress

North Dakota has the most churches per capita of any state (Wikipedia). That's why Juno Moneta, the protectress of funds, guards over their finances.

Charge-offs are measured on a net basis-loans charged off as losses minus recoveries on loans preciously charged off.

There's a funny typo on the FRED page cited above by WS and Aleister. I bet every charge off is precious now.

Ben, Cramer, and the rest of the sheeple herders are setting up the conditions for a bubble in the stock market. This bubble may be bullshit, it may be completely fake, but it may very well succeed. The sheeple want to be lied to. I can only see three options here: stay out, go with momentum, or try to short.

" km4 (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 12:28 pm
Yup posted that yesterday...with this on-the-money-quote

"The US economy is now dying a slow and painful death because it had become based on activities that had nothing to do with producing real wealth. Instead, it became dependent on rackets, that is, behavior geared to getting something for nothing"."

A couple of decades ago I met a guy from Britain who suggested to me that the reason that the US had been more successful than the British is that we considered Engineering a desirable profession whereas the British viewed and engineer as a guy who drove and maintained a train. After a couple of decades of off-shoring jobs, beating engineers around the head-and-shoulders in the product development environment, and creating a working environment where folks really didn't want to stick around for more than a few years, I suspect that a lot of folks have encouraged their kids to do something other than engineering; it certainly seems so based on the graduation levels from engineering schools.
Perhaps we've reached the point that the British fellow describe to me, where folks that do real work a looked down upon. If so, then we deserve what we've got coming...

The US medical scheme is another example. I heard we spend 17% of our GDP on "health expenses. Other big countries spend 10% and everyone gets a doctor.

The medical industry has bankrupted it's customers, like most other US businesses, through extortionist and usurious actions. The medical industry is controlled by the finance industry through "insurance" companies. Now it needs a bailout.

If you read up on what Ohamma is doing in the name of health care you can see it is a windfall for the current finance based medical cartel.

"scone (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 12:31 pm

The Governator strikes a budget deal. Seems to have been priced into the markets, already:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5_Sl24RQ01U"

Scone,
How's the tax situation there in Oregon?

Perhaps we've reached the point that the British fellow describe to me, where folks that do real work a looked down upon.

Seriously, why go thru all the hard work and discipline, when you could have made MORE money (mid 6-figures) with no college degree turning home loans?

By posting this negative information about economic conditions, it become clear that CR is no friend of America.
Why does CR hate America?

In great American fashion " Go F yourself "...

" shill (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 12:40 pm

Mr. President, with all due respect: Are you insane?

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1246-President-HooBama.html"

Well, we have stepped back from the abyss. The fire; not so much-

Maybe you should have included the /snark tag with that post.

Cinco-X - How much in materials do you figure it will cost? We spent about $500 in materials and I think we need an extension already, looks like it might be too small for my growing flock.

@ Cinco-X (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 9:43 am
" km4 (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 12:28 pm
Yup posted that yesterday...with this on-the-money-quote
"The US economy is now dying a slow and painful death because it had become based on activities that had nothing to do with producing real wealth. Instead, it became dependent on rackets, that is, behavior geared to getting something for nothing"."
.... I suspect that a lot of folks have encouraged their kids to do something other than engineering; it certainly seems so based on the graduation levels from engineering schools.
Perhaps we've reached the point that the British fellow describe to me, where folks that do real work a looked down upon. If so, then we deserve what we've got coming...

The USA pretty much did this with increasing intensity from 1980's to 2005 and now US taxpayers ( suckers ! ) could be on the hook for up to $23 trillion in bailouts! The standard of living for most Americans is or will be going down.

Ben "Hubris" Bernanke is holding court on the issue of health care cost control as a necessary prerequisite to sound monetary policy. What a coincidence that Leader O is also speaking from the same script at this very moment. Ahhh yes, the infamous independence of the Fed on display.

I personally know people who made millions, not hundreds of thousands, but millions, originating Option ARMs.

Hardly can blame them, even tho this did not end very well.

" Outsider (profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 12:53 pm

Cinco-X - How much in materials do you figure it will cost? We spent about $500 in materials and I think we need an extension already, looks like it might be too small for my growing flock."

$400, but it's small. I plan to put wheels underneath it to make it a "chicken tractor".

"The US economy is now dying a slow and painful death because it had become based on activities that had nothing to do with producing real wealth."

Yes and no. A lot of the stuff we make is used in construction and landscaping: lumber, paint, drywall, concrete, adhesives, roofing materials, plumbing products, doors and windows, carpet, furniture, etc. For example, Dalton, Georgia is the center of the carpet industry in North America, making most of the broadloom. North Carolina is the biggest furniture making area. In addition, the forest products industry (plywood, finished lumber, etc.) competes across state lines. So the loggers and sawmill people in the Northwest are competing with people in the South East, driving wages to the lowest common denominator. A lot of good farmland has been planted to grass seed, sod, ornamental shrubs, and trees, because of demand and higher profits, versus growing food. (There's no going back, because food prices are too low relative to inputs.) Even the car industry was tangentially related to housing-- if you are living in the far suburbs, because the bubble has raised prices, you've got to have 2 cars. At least.

Combine these agricultural and industrial job losses with white collar FIRE jobs losses, and there you have it. When the housing bubble crashed, it took all the related industries along, into the pit.

"It's not that I disagree with your intent here, but I'd point out that the dollar bills in my wallet say "Federal Reserve Note" right across the top."

Point taken, but my point was, this is the currency of the United States. And funny how Treasury Secretaries sign the notes, not Fed chairs.

This private/public partnership is a disaster, as most are.

Harley and GS have a common thread.....Buffet. Who has distinguished himself for being the most public figure to drink from the well....of kool-aid.

Seriously....how HOG is not a single-digit midget speaks to the amount of manipulation that occurs when we rally around to "save 'merica". I almost re-shorted them the other day but I just couldn't based on the debt that buffet owns and he WILL be made whole regardless of any real fundamental outcome.

Ciao
MS

Oh, Nooos:

Subprime Brokers Resurface as Dubious Loan Fixers

But I guess I should have expected it.

MS reshorted HOG around 19 and some CAKE too looked like Easy fodder but I was wrong. There was a piece on HOG in The NYT last week but yeah manipulation but should the supports fail it will come down like a lead weight. HOG is GM lite IMO

Last night I had a builder in our house finalizing our renovation plans. The guy like to talk about jobs from the past. Finally, I had to tell him. Look it's past nine and I got to go to work ...

2 years ago I couldn't get them to return my calls.

Oh, he says it is a depression. Not a recession. I guess it is if you were making your money building custom houses a couple years ago.

Tim,
HOG is going to be a case study someday. The ultimate demographic whipsaw. "Easy Rider" to "Wild Hogs." Sad.

I completely agree.

Oh, he says it is a depression. Not a recession. I guess it is if you were making your money building custom houses a couple years ago.

And that industry, one of those hit the hardest, is probably not showing up anywhere in the UE figures.

If anyone here follows the airlines and would like a solid research report, don't hesitate to contact me.

Anyone watching the bond market today. Wow...

Who's buying? BB ?

@Interesting Times: I thought PIMCO said yesterday they were bullish on Treasuries.

IT-

ahh..yea...$7b worth in outright coupon purchases. Takes a huge pair to say that he's not doing it at the very time he shoves that amount into the T.

And no one ever calls him on it. Sad..

Ciao
MS

Wisdom-

They ALWAYS say that......when you're portfolio is tied to the biggest ponzi scheme ever.....etc.

Of course they are bullish on them.

Ciao
MS

HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Tue, 7/21/2009 - 10:18 am
...extend Cheney's detail on Monday, according to the Daily News. The newspaper says friends of the former vice president "have said he has become more concerned about his privacy and personal safety in recent years."
---Why do we have to continue to pay for this POS?

Probably because people get incensed at the idea that his personal safety is worth anything. Reap what you sow.

---Why do we have to continue to pay for this POS?

The same reason we had to pay for the Clintons home in NY, when they said they needed X millions to remodel fo0r the SS detail...

You know the answer...their all shi* in the same shoe

I'm thinking "protective detainment" in Gitmo might be good enough for war profiteering Dick...

I find it interesting how many articles pine for the next bubble, as in "Is Green Energy the Next Internet?" - as if there, of course, will be one, and you'd better get in on it.

Bubbles seem to be the equivalent of a get-rich-quick scheme, which Americans haven't been able to shake since the gold rush.

Whatever happened to the work-hard scheme?

And yet the Great Recession was over in July.

Amazing.

I want him in an orange jumpsuit by the side of the road, picking up trash, along with a long list of public and Wall Street traitors to be agreed upon later by consensus. Presided over by a couple of fat prison guards with hound dogs and shot guns.

Bdobbs, good thought but I think a camoflauge jumpsuit that looks similar to the road would be better, so some sleepy trucker would just hit him while he was picking trash up without noticing....

"I'm so obsessed following economic and political developments that I can't concentrate on my job."

Hard to believe that this is the end. But it is not the end, just the beginning of the end, the tunnel that never ends.

Go Back to work. We need you to save Americaaa!

Seriously, the last 9 months have been attack of the black swans. Be careful not to stare into the light too long.

Work is overrated. I never understood why anyone would extoll the virtues of hard work. I like naps and doing what I want. If I could get paid for it I would play music, write, nap, fish, travel etc...

"That's the second one."

If you can't find a job, start a business that preys on those looking for a job. This is Americaaa, get in line! We are all competitors here.

One housing-related industry is still alive: decorating. Seriously, people are furnishing their homes with stuff they get off ebay, craigslist, estate sales, etc. and then having stuff reupholstered or slipcovered, instead of buying new. * And there's still some DIY going on. I've noticed a lot of activity in the consignments shops, too. A lot of the stuff is brand new, as the furniture stores are consigning out (without using their names) in order to sell at all. They don't price down on the sales floor, in order to pick up maximum revenue from the fools who still pay retail. Of course, some of the furniture stores have closed, too, but the 'consignment discounting' system is here to stay, IMO. That's one thing that will hold down inflation for some time, along with low car sales.

• Slipcovers are bloody expensive, actually, because they have to be fitted like a tailored suit. Not that you asked.