that guy deserves a job with the UST.

Maybe inflation and deflation are perfectly balanced.

Kind of like flipping a coin and having it land on its edge. Hey, it could happen.

think about what "equity" in this environment actually means and where ROI would have to come from.

"Maybe inflation and deflation are perfectly balanced."

that's only because the PPT managed to goose crude and stocks in the last few months. remove that prop, and the dynamic is 100% deflationary.

The Montage Art of Winston Smith

his stuff was fun in the 80s, probably the best of that photocopier school.

Trying to reconcile these two statements:

"This images is of a five foot by seven and a half foot oil painting."

"Here's the finished painting! I just had it scanned to get this very crisp image! I love it!"

Zions Unit Buys Vineyard Deposits

I'd put Zions itself on the BFF short list.

Survival School
Survival School - CNBC

Published: Friday, 17 Jul 2009 | 1:52 PM ET
By: Sara Behuneck

It's a sticky Saturday morning and I'm handcuffed in the back seat of a Jeep Grand Cherokee parked on the side of a Philadelphia street. On one side of me is my boyfriend, Bruce, and on the other his best friend, Nick. Both of them are also cuffed—and like me, sweating like pigs. I reach into my hair and pull out a bobby pin that within seconds I've fashioned into a simple device I use to jimmy open my handcuff locks. Our assignment now is to evade 12 professionally trained trackers in a 25-square-block area for the next eight hours. It may be hard to believe, but we asked for this. Actually, we paid for it: $550 apiece.

Today is the final day of a three-day "Urban Escape and Evade" course offered by onPoint Tactical LLC, a New Jersey-based company that teaches soldiers, police officers, and, increasingly, civilians urban survival skills. Among the lessons we've learned are how to break through zip ties and telephone cords (the most common materials used as binding by kidnappers), smash a car window without making a sound, pick tumbler- and padlocks, puncture the tires of a pursuit vehicle with homemade caltrops, call for help using a ham radio, kill an attack dog—and, of course, how to escape from handcuffs (see a video here). To make today's exercise even more difficult, we've been assigned a variety of missions that will test our newfound prowess in urban tactical maneuvering.

The days they fly and a year ago...

"It's FDIC, so who gives a damn?"
by Tanta on 7/17/2008 08:43:00 AM
Calculated Risk: "It's FDIC, so who gives a damn?"

From the WSJ: Earnings Uptick Lifts Confidence
"Stock Market Soars for the Week as Early Corporate Reports Handily Beat Estimates"

Despite the headline and subtitle, the article is actually quite good. It's balanced, pointing out that companies are beating very low analyst estimates. (FYI, ComstockFunds.com quotes the most recent estimate earnings for this quarter at a pathetic $6.50...how do they not beat those expectations!?).

It also points out this important fact:

Companies such as IBM still are reporting declining sales from a year ago, so that their profit gains are based more on cost-cutting than on a real improvement in the market.

Earnings Uptick Lifts Confidence - WSJ.com

So did the hindenburg..

//"Stock Market Soars for the Week as Early Corporate Reports Handily Beat Estimates"//

Look at the picture in this article

International Man of Economics, Baby
Random Roger: International Man of Economics, Baby

Yesterday's mid day lift was credited to Nouriel Roubini's having said the worst was behind us. Later he backed away some from those comments, you can read that here. Before I get into this I am hesitant to be overly reliant on explanations for why the market does anything. Taleb has written about this and I tend to agree with him. That sort of analysis is right except for when it is wrong, if you take my meaning.

In the above link from Roubini he talks about his having expected the recession to be 24 months which means it would end at the end of this year so nothing new there. Additionally he says there will be slow growth coming out with a high risk of a double dip in late 2010 and unemployment peaking at 11% in 2010.

Almost time for "The Soup" in PDT. The best show on TV.

SlOw TyPing. Too much

This chart speaks for me -- with S&P down 50% and CIT down almost 100% (in two years). Jobless recovery will fix all this and more!
Invalid Ticker Symbol - Yahoo! Finance

No, this looks better, AIG, C, BAC, GM, CIT and S&P.

Invalid Ticker Symbol - Yahoo! Finance

Ok, sorry, goodnight

the painters use of perspective in the foreground, middle ground and background reminds of someone
else but I can't make the match...

Grant Wood's rolling Iowa farmland?

HH: my american Id is pretty diluted by time and distance, but I'll take your word for it!

eg

Bollwitts in Iowa – Like a Grant Wood Painting »
Vancouver Blog Miss 604 by Rebecca Bollwitt

thier back

calif lawmakers close to striking deal..
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found

how many times before close means done..

nemo & retirement - it's a double- edged sword, nemo. We all die anyway. The promise of retirement carries its own chains. If it is a lie and you perceive the lie, you have more freedom now than others.

I suppose I like gay/alt bars more now because they, like me, don't take the mating game so seriously. It's often a ridiculous place, full of laughter. I broke my rule tonight and downed two rum & cokes. I have about $30k in tax refunds coming, my sister the CPA and my cousin the prosecuting attorney have been cheated so spectacularly by the "smart" people of the US but they worked miracles for me. I owe them big- time.

Women like gay/ alt bars, too. Probably for the same reasons.

Lucifer, you really need to do a search & destroy mission to find that rare exceptional one. You may not succeed but you should at least try so that you have ammuntition when you're confronted by your future self.

Now excuse while I fend off Miss 25yo student.

Robert Reich seems to have joined the bandwagon re Goldman:

"The resurgence of JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs gives both banks more financial clout than any other players on the Street -- allowing both firms to lure talent from everywhere else on the Street with multi-million pay packages, giving both firms enough economic power to charge clients whopping fees, and bestowing on both firms even more political heft in Washington.

Where are the antitrusters when we need them? Alternatively, why isn't the government charging Goldman and JPMorgan a large insurance fee for classifying both firms as "too big to fail" and therefore automatically bailed out if the risks they take turn sour? Instead, we've ended up with two giants that now have most of the casino to themselves, are playing with poker chips backed by taxpayers, and have a big say in what the rules of the game are to be."

Maybe he's looking for a White House dinner invite...

broward,

I will not accept two things

1. Not being able to live as I choose to, and do what i want to..
2. A woman saying or hinting that she is doing a favor by sleeping with a non-white man.

Escorts are cheaper (total cost of service, no strings, no games) and I can get any age/ look/ service combination I want.. and change it on my whims.

Once you decide, based on evidence, that people are treating you poorly in your prime.. you become very intolerant of anyone who shows even a trace of that attitude. You stop seeing them as human.. and that is irreversible.

Danny: Have you upgraded to firefox 3.5.1?

They claim to have patched some stability and security issues.

Ken; You going to be able to screen out "popularity" polls? I'm thinking of those that would make one make one of the users the subject. Or maybe we can just all agree to be grown-ups about this,...

Actually I forgot I upgraded to 3.5.1. So, few more details: I'm on Vista 32 bit Home. I have Norton Anti-Virus.

Edit: and I have all the patches (SP2, etc.) which are required by Microsoft....

The Acquisitors like Paulson can't grasp people who don't seek money bcause money is the holiest of holies.
The Paulsons of the world delude themslves into measuring themselves and others by piles of money and that's why they accomplish nothing of great value in the end. Even Bill Gates figured that out. But not the GS weenies, they're far too clever to do something of value.

nemo & retirement - it's a double- edged sword, nemo. We all die anyway. The promise of retirement carries its own chains. If it is a lie and you perceive the lie, you have more freedom now than others.

If I had a dollar for all the people who tell me they are putting off retirement due to 'conditions' I'd be able to retire now.

Some lost their ass in the markets... some saw their careers derail... most though just didn't see time sneaking up on them and they didn't prepare... that has been happening forever.

In most cases they really do have enough to retire IF they downsize appropriately - that means downsize A LOT. Virtually disappear. If they could get that small more than a few could retire now at 40, 50, whatever. But they have to really go underground and they can't do it - ego won't let them disappear.

So they keep slogging. If you enjoy the slog [I mostly do] then no problem... but I don't hear many people saying they enjoy the march. Too bad really - the money alone is never worth it.

Morgan Stanley to Get Top Underwriting Role on AIG Share Sales
Morgan Stanley to Get Top Underwriting Role on AIG Share Sales - Bloomberg.com

By Hugh Son and Zachary R. Mider

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- Morgan Stanley, the world’s third- biggest stock underwriter, won a lead role from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in arranging initial public offerings of American International Group Inc. units. Morgan Stanley, which is advising the New York Fed on its bailout of AIG, will reap fees from the IPO’s and from sales of other units to buyers, according to documents the agency posted on its Web site yesterday. The bank gets an initial $4 million payment and $2.5 million a quarter for its advisory role.

sweet Johhny it was a four bagger.

Buckingham Green
Ween smokes a

SEIU Local 1000 calls for strike vote
404 - Not Found - sacbee.com

By Jon Ortiz
Last Modified: Friday, Jul. 17, 2009 - 9:40 pm

California's biggest public employee union, sensing that its members are angry and ready to act on it, has called for a strike authorization vote that if supported would give the union's leaders the authority to call for workplace actions up to and including a walkout. Service Employees International Union Local 1000 plans to mail the ballots this afternoon. Members will have until July 31 to return their ballot. The union will announce the results a day or two later.

Seducing 25yo women is easy.
Cheating people thru financial fraud is easy.
Even killing people is relatively easy.

The true consideration is the moral framework we adopt.
It can't be based on what others say or sign or agree to.
It has to based on what we ourselves know is true.

I think you still live in the 1920s.. we cannot downsize because in a post-industrial society almost all jobs are non-essential. Even the essential jobs depend on the non-essential workers having money to spend.

No I live in the here and now.

The key is INDIVIDUALS would have to decide they are dropping out and not being an essential or non-essential. They would have to decide they are going to disappear.

I don't know what TPTB would do if a lot of people did that - but I don't expect a lot of people to do it so it won't be an issue - but an individual sure could... it isn't that hard once you decide to 'get small'.

BTW - there is a guy in my neighborhood who does this... lives in a very small 2BR older home paid for years ago... walks to work [doesn't own a car - doesn't have a DL in the freaking rural midwest!]. Walks to the grocery, shops, etc. Carries everything home by hand [that limits your buy for sure].

He is 'invisible'... economically speaking that is and totally okay with it. I chat with him almost everyday as he passes our house.

broward,

It is much cheaper and easier to pay 200-300$/hr for MSOG (multiple shots on goal) with a 25 year old escort than "seduce" one.

It certainly does not help that any attempt to mention/hint at worth dependent on race to me will ensure that said person is verbally destroyed.

That is their greatest fear! they cannot be rich and safe if we become S. America. The only reason S.American elites can exploit their people is that the 'west' aids them and is their safe harbor. the elites in the west have no 'safe' harbor.

//I don't know what TPTB would do if a lot of people did that - but I don't expect a lot of people to do it so it won't be an issue - but an individual sure could... it isn't that hard once you decide to 'get small'.//

They've got a little test they give you; it's a balloon, and if you can get inside of it, they know... you're small. And they can't put you in a regular cell either, because you walk right out

You have a better idea?

//That and New Deal politicians to 'spread out the limited amount of work'//

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Let’s Get Small (1977) was an album by American comedian Steve Martin. It included Excuse Me, a comedy bit whose title went on to become a national catch phrase.

"...and New Deal politicians to 'spread out the limited amount of work'"

Yes.

"...you still have to deal with it."

True enough, but you can reduce your exposure, as dryfly says.

It is an almost inevitable consequence of industrialization.

//fact is they did it and it wasn't an afterthought, it was intentional.//

mp,

but 'zions' very existence is one of the side-effects of the 'matrix' existing in the first place.

You require 'hell' to have 'heaven' and vice versa. You require ignorance to have enlightenment.

Let’s Get Small (1977) was an album by American comedian Steve Martin. It included Excuse Me, a comedy bit whose title went on to become a national catch phrase.

I remember it well. And as a result 'get small' has a bit of a double entendre - one can have some fun 'getting small'.

bANK fAILURE,

I feel left out

bobn,

I think you can understand my point better if you consider this-

Why would a person, who understands that the system is rigged against him, help maintain it?

82 ignores 26.

when you get late in the evening dreaming of things.....

nova:
after the crash takedown.

citizen allenM

someday this wars gonna end.

Sebastian:
Wright B

crispy&cole

always against the grain.

LawyerLiz:
---thisis the 1 to watch...mommy came home, money has to move...a condo in the future.

the stories in the comments are all here.. we are in the utter failure of housing, and that means housing is the buy. Real Tangible things....

"and that means housing is the buy"

i think you're about 15 years early on that call...

"my conjure has a BLANUS. "

Sorry to hear that.

(My response was delayed because I had to look that one up.)

I see massive boomer capitulation in terms of housing circa 2025. Geithner will be turning 64 that year. Those last few boomers ('58-'61) are the stupidest and dullest of that cohort, and will cling the longest to the illusion.

Australia Export Prices Plunge at Record Pace in Q2
Australia Export Prices Plunge at Record Pace in Q2 - Australia and New Zealand * Asia * News * Story - CNBC.com

Published: Friday, 17 Jul 2009 | 12:39 AM ET

Australia's export prices slumped at a record pace last quarter and threatening to drag on the economy in coming months, providing one reason for interest rates to stay at record lows for some time to come.

The pony blog..

ABOUT THIS BLOG
This recession has given us a lot to cry about – lost jobs, lost homes, crushed 401(k)s and ravaged financial markets. It’s times like these that you need a laugh most. So, we created the Pony blog and sent out our crack reporter, Cindy Perman, to try to find a few laughs amid the rubble. The blog’s name comes from an old joke, a favorite of Ronald Reagan’s, that essentially means, with a pile of you-know-what this big, there MUST be a pony—a bright side—in here somewhere!
Pony in Here Somewhere Blog - CNBC.com

And thus followed the ugly "pony recipes" thread.

"The CNBC hack stole your idea."

They are welcome to it. Anyway, everyone knows that every little girl or boy wants a pony.

I have lurking around since 2005-2006.. though I used to come here a few times a week instead of every day. I have aways been cynical...

// I can't remember a time when most people here weren't cynical about our financial future. //

"I can't remember a time when most people here weren't cynical about our financial future."

Don't worry, it's going to get worse.

In the short run, I'm optimistic. In the long run, I'm not.

quote of a quote quoting Krugman on oil:
"One of the things I find puzzling about the whole oil market discussion is how complicated people seem to make it. They get all wrapped up in stuff about forward markets, hedge funds, etc., and lose sight of the fundamental fact that there are only two things you can do with the world’s oil production: consume it, or store it.

So my challenge to people who say there’s an oil bubble is this: let’s get physical. Tell me where you think the excess supply of crude is going.

Have no idea why my characters are displayed incrrectlyh here...

"From August 2007..."

How about November 22, 2007? Conjure Bag declares bull market in equities over.

I can't remember a time when most people here weren't cynical about our financial future.

The US by and large is still in the first stage of Denial. We're making noises like we're moving into Bargaining, but still have yet to see true Anger. I guess we'll have to see a Depression before we can Accept what happened and try to move forward.

Good night, everyone.

Via John Robb's site, Interesting analysis on getting small (or local) regarding food supply in Blighty:

Sustainable Frome, town in transition :: Site / ENERGYDESCENTACTIONPLAN

Anticipates 80% non-imports, excluding spices, coffee, chocolate and the like, for which people will pay a premium. Blueberries from Chile? Not so much.

Them pigs are kosher.

don't quite understand that Polling idea... and am a bit concerned
that so far the votes lean toward Polls created by CR & designates...
constructing a proper poll is an art in itself, during the 2004 Prez election
I was on a team whose primary goal was to predict the Nov. 2004 election results
30 days before that event... our chief public competitor was a Prof at Yale...
I spent weeks reading about 50 years of polling data, not to mention jobs data, etc,
and trying to fit it to our model...
IMHO it doesn't sound like a great idea to me... the last thing we need here is
a Supreme Council (don't get me started on the idiocy of the Ignore User feature...
a) it's fascist, for one b) it creates a disequilibrium of fairness [as I understand it
someone turns me off in the dark of night and I still must be subject to their
incisive and cogent thoughts or their opposite?]
... anyone for term limits on how long a User can remain on CR?

anyone here follow ZeroHedge? I guess Blog, their hosting site has received a number of complaints about
intellectual property rights violation... or at least that's what Tyler Durden says in his ineffable style. (I wonder if
one had to do with his use of the name...)

Interesting article in Advance Trading mag. 'The Real Story of Trading Software Espionage The Real Story of Trading Software Espionage by Advanced Trading 

For example, high frequency trading firms, which represent approximately 2% of the 20,000 or so trading firms operating in the US markets today, account for 73% of all US equity trading volume. These companies include proprietary trading desks for a small number of major investment banks, less than 100 of the most sophisticated hedge funds and hundreds of the most secretive prop shops, all of which operate with one thing in mind—capture profit opportunities by being smarter and faster than the closest competition.

@yogi

F#@$%% Ass$%#%

Well said. The handling of AIG's contract is what convinced me that the taxpayers and Congress are being played as fools. The parties involved know exactly what they've done in the past to make this all happen and what they are doing to try to get themselves out of it. And yet we taxpayers who are trying to pay attention seem powerless to stop it.

continued: the article goes on to say:
" To realize any real benefit from implementing these strategies, a trading firm must have a real-time, colocated, high-frequency trading platform—one where data is collected, and orders are created and routed to execution venues in sub-millisecond times."
... and this idea of 'colocated'
I wonder what if any colocation the exchanges are offering. Does that mean Goldman has done a reverse elvis? (my own pet theory is that they have tunneled under the exchange and are wired up to the hardware above, devilishly clever. Nothing like shaving off a few millisecond hops. )

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Porsche SE's controlling families will agree on Thursday to accept an offer by Volkswagen to buy its sports car business Porsche AG for roughly 8 billion euros ($11.28 billion), Der Spiegel reported on Saturday.

Germany's leading weekly magazine wrote that the rival Porsche and Piech clans, which own 100 percent of Porsche SE votes, will approve the two-stage takeover at a supervisory board meeting on July 23.

VW to pay $11.28 billion for all of Porsche: report
| Reuters

.......we put some of our stuff through the local County Fair growers gig, and talk about a major pain in the ass - the old gals act like old guys shouldn't even be allowed to walk thru the hallowed exhibit halls!.....LOL.......(our relish DID win the Blue Ribbon a couple of years ago tho)

LOL........Home, I have enough problem picking up and moving around the melons we DO grow, much less a giant one or two or three. But in all honesty, YES, I'd love to win BIGGEST of SHOW! LOL.

Hey Home, what do you do besides eat good and tend to your garden?

Good morning all. I guess the foursies won it last night. Congrats! Thanks again to those that rec'd Firefox. There was adware attached to my IE that was slowing my browser down considerably and making it crash. Nothing I used got rid of it but Firefox is working great and no adware.

Morning Kristina...........the Mrs has 4-days now (at a fam lounge) and she loves it - kinda like "old man daycare" serving beers and stuff......and no fistfights ever break out at lunch between two 75-year olds........LOL

It's usually still wet from making wort.
I'd say it has the consistency of wet, crushed grain.
There's usually not much "water" left in it as it's been run off to make your wort.

Seriously, you just "mash" your crushed grain in 154F (this is my all purpose mash temp but it varies) for about 60 mins.
I have a 10 gallon Rubbermaid cooler set that I purchased from morebeer(dot)com for my mash tun and sparge tank.
I usually brew 10 gallon batches but sometimes I'll make a 5 gallon batch (Barleywines/ Imperial Stouts).
My cost per bottle (although I have been using 5 gallon kegs for quite awhile) is under .75.
Always chuckle to myself when I hear folks talking about the $5 bottles of Imperial Stout at the store...

I've heard that cows do love spent mash grain.
Are you thinking of a new hobby, BSR?

Alright, got to run.
Mrs Gnome and I have a full day today.

@curious: "The handling of AIG's contract is what convinced me that the taxpayers and Congress are being played as fools...."

I lose it when Liddy says it's the best we can do and we won't come back for more and Congress says well just don't do it again. Over and over. But I'm still betting AIG will be turned inside out the next round of bailouts.