nemobot + 1

What's up with West Virginia?

Argh! Pigged again:

"
lawyerliz (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 3:57 pm

Not particularly the chickens you grow yourselves.

The industrial chicken farms are beyond horrible, and they
are drowning in chickenshit."

Which is in turn, poisoning Chesapeake Bay and other water features around the country. They produce so much they can't do anything with it, whereas a small farmer can use it for fertilizer once it's "seasoned" a bit.

Citigroup delivers surprise $4.3 billion profit - Jul. 17, 2009

C books some cash, tarpified

We should just bulldoze Michigan for kindling and start over.

That Federal Reserve graph represents the largest experiment in central banking in the history of the world.

Watching all this unfold is kind of like watching the moon landing, but different.

Rolling off short-term debt, piling on longer-term debt. No inflationary consequences in that. The Fed and China are now running the largest carry trades in history, adding to them every day, and Treasury is completely dependent on them continuing to do so for years into the future. I don't think it's possible to own enough gold, ammo and canned goods at this point.

Also....that's an aweful lot of Misc. on that there Fed Balance Sheet....(plus now we know who is buying Jas' treasuries)

Short term lending to financial institutions is 1/3 rd what it was in December. Potemkin Banks.

Too much nitrogen in that fresh chicken shit.
Needs to be composted before use as fertilizer

Some E-Books Are More Equal Than Others
Some E-Books Are More Equal Than Others - Pogue’s Posts Blog - NYTimes.com

This morning, hundreds of Amazon Kindle owners awoke to discover that books by a certain famous author had mysteriously disappeared from their e-book readers. These were books that they had bought and paid for—thought they owned. But no, apparently the publisher changed its mind about offering an electronic edition, and apparently Amazon, whose business lives and dies by publisher happiness, caved. It electronically deleted all books by this author from people’s Kindles and credited their accounts for the price.This is ugly for all kinds of reasons. Amazon says that this sort of thing is “rare,” but that it can happen at all is unsettling; we’ve been taught to believe that e-books are, you know, just like books, only better. Already, we’ve learned that they’re not really like books, in that once we’re finished reading them, we can’t resell or even donate them. But now we learn that all sales may not even be final. As one of my readers noted, it’s like Barnes & Noble sneaking into our homes in the middle of the night, taking some books that we’ve been reading off our nightstands, and leaving us a check on the coffee table.

You want to know the best part? The juicy, plump, dripping irony? The author who was the victim of this Big Brotherish plot was none other than George Orwell. And the books were “1984” and “Animal Farm.”

"Rolling off short-term debt, piling on longer-term debt. No inflationary consequences in that. The Fed and China are now running the largest carry trades in history, adding to them every day, and Treasury is completely dependent on them continuing to do so for years into the future. I don't think it's possible to own enough gold, ammo and canned goods at this point."

I'm with Turbo on this one, very little debt is being paid down, while more and more money gets cranked into the system. A hyperinflationary currency crisis is inevitable at this point.

I wish Amazon continued success with Kindle.
//double snark//

How do e-books work? Do you click onto an account to read? Suppose you want to re-read the book in a year or so? Can you download the text?

pavel.chichikov,

E-books in their current form are a scam.

we will not monetize (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 4:10 pm

Also....that's an aweful lot of Misc. on that there Fed Balance Sheet....(plus now we know who is buying Jas' treasuries)

Yeah, I have to say the whole strategy of "print as much as you want, our creditors can't escape" really seems to me to be near its endgame. The day when it's just Timmy and Ben passing slips of paper to one-another in a room with the shades drawn and calling it a bond market draws ever-nearer.

"Some E-Books Are More Equal Than Others"

Ironic that it was Orwell, would have been funnier if it was Bradbury's Fahrenheit 451.

So much for Kindle.

Skittles is surprised that Louisiana is faring so (relatively) well in UE rate.

Good job, Brownie! Joy!

That's just the graph they want you to see.......
We are only seeing this from the bow of the titanic.

This is not a complete picture by any stretch of the imagination...

Ciao
MS

pavel.chichikov (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 4:17 pm

How do e-books work? Do you click onto an account to read? Suppose you want to re-read the book in a year or so? Can you download the text?

You can "download" it but it's "protected" by DRM, which as you know is a harmless way for the rightful owners to secure their interests and which you are a communist or a cowardly thief for speaking out against. Also, it lets them "vanishing Komissar" the text of things they don't like. Maybe they edit things too, but how would you prove it if it was an electronic-only copy? But don't worry, this is the brave new future that Bill Clinton's DMCA ushered in for us, and we should all be happy we can make life so easy for our oligarch overlords.

True, I was overheated there. What I meant to say was that while saying "we need to live within our means" Merkel isn't offering workable solutions. Germany has muddled through its post cold war merger (which involved adding enormous burdens to its productive citizens re absorbing the remains of East Germany) and the rapid aging of its population by export-oriented industries. The bills for Germany's generous welfare system and low productivity due to the massive numbers of barely employable former East Germans are going to come due. Are Germans really going to accept major cutbacks in government pensions and health care?

On the topic of the markets.....

I'm just wondering why the following stocks (which have increased by dramatic amounts since their lows...I'm talking 50%, 100%, and even 200% gains) have not had a single insider buy the stock over the past 6 months??? That means, even when the stocks were priced at crazy lows, no insider thought it prudent to buy the stocks...

Apple (AAPL)
Amazon (AMZN)
Google (GOOG)
Priceline (PCLN)
Nordstroms (JWN)
Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Furthermore, for Amazon and Priceline and Google, there has been a tremendous amount of insider SELLING. Awfully strange, isn't it?

I guess you can rationalize the insider selling as pre-planned, schedule selling by large holders of the stock, who need to diversify. But how do you explain that NOBODY, not a single insider, bought these stocks for the past 6 months?

Video game industry sales sink 31% in June
Video game industry sales sink 31% in June - Los Angeles Times

By Alex Pham
July 17, 2009

The recession is hammering the video game industry. Marking the sector's fourth consecutive monthly decline, sales of video games and consoles in the U.S. fell 31% last month to $1.2 billion, down from $1.7 billion in June 2008, according to a report released Thursday from market research firm NPD Grou

" HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 4:14 pm

Too much nitrogen in that fresh chicken shit.
Needs to be composted before use as fertilizer"

Seasoned/composted, potato/potato
Hmm...that doesn't work too well in text;)

who decides that? and how?

//"we need to live within our means"//

M-F (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 4:26 pm

I don't know how you get hyper inflation without wage inflation. How is that supposed to work?

You don't need wage inflation to experience hyperinflation. You just need a crisis in confidence in the currency.

Lucifer (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 4:27 pm

who decides that? and how?

Good policy. Failing that, God picks it the same way he picks which little birds fly and which little birds die.

"I don't know how you get hyper inflation without wage inflation. How is that supposed to work?"

Print MASSIVE ( as in trillions) amounts of money......

Ciao
MS

Byzantine_Ruins,

I prefer evolution over both european socialist aristocrats or american capitalist aristocrats.

Industrial production is down around 25% globally, but end demand is "only" down around 5% to date. Inventories should be worked down by the end of this year, which removes some of the deflationary pressures. I admit though, stagnant wages and continued pressure on house prices will be a deflationary wet squib for years. However, with trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see, and fannie and freddie on federal life support for years to come, there is simply no way the Fed will be able to unwind it's balance sheet, so inflation one to two years out seems inevitable. A basic regression of past monetary expansion episodes points to an inflation of around 50% coming, probably played out from mid-2010 through 2012, assuming no further monetary expansion - a replay of the worst of the 70's. What's really scary, is the Chinese will see that as a technical default on the $3T the US will owe them by then, and probably rationalize to themselves that it's time to bring Taiwan back into the fold. And so begins WWIII. Like I said, gold, ammo and canned goods. The bright side (if there is one), will be the re-industrialization of the west, and a more balance world economy down the road...assuming there still is one...

"Ten more months have now passed. Those new dollars are flooding throughout the system. The money supply has increased by the amount of the bailout plus the amount of new spending for welfare, health care, interest on the national debt, and foreign aid, all of which are in a vertical climb. Inflation has become institutionalized.

The dollar has been dethroned as the world's de facto currency. Foreign investors and central banks no longer have any use for dollars. The have sent them back to the United States from whence they came. Trillions of them have returned to our shores like a huge flock of homing pigeons that fills the sky from horizon to horizon. They are buying our refrigerators, automobiles, computers, airplanes, cargo ships, armored tanks, office buildings, factories, real estate - pushing prices to levels that would have seemed impossible a year ago. A single postage stamp costs as many dollars as once would have purchased a new TV set.

Most stores have stopped accepting checks and credit cards. Workers are paid daily with bundles of paper money. People rush to the stores to purchase groceries before prices rise even further. Commerce is paralyzed. Bank loans and mortgages are unobtainable. Savings accounts have been destroyed, including the cash values of insurance policies. Factories are shutting down. Businesses are closing their doors. Barter is commonplace. Old silver coins come out of private hoards and a hundred-dollar bill is exchanged for one silver dime."

from The Creature From Jekyll Island.

Think it won't happen?

BTW, if you're curious, here are the gains of those six stocks I listed above (from their recent lows, all in March I believe):

GOOG +77%
AAPL +93%
AMZN +148%
PCLN +159%
JWN +227%
URBN +78%

Wish I'd bought them at their bottom....and still wondering why the insiders never bought, all along the way since March.

MS they can print trillions, but they are mostly replacing trillions in wealth that simply vanished as asset prices dropped. How do those trillions printed get into the hands of the consumer to spark broad inflation vs. just raising the prices of scarce commodities like oil??

Thanks, Byz. I'm not up to speed on a lot of new technology.

Someone suggested Kindle for my new book, and I passed the suggestion along to my publisher. She told me to go ahead and investigate if I wanted to, but she didn't sound enthusiastic.

A real book as something you can read through while snowbound in a cabin, or in a bunk on a ship somewhere far at sea, or while traveling in a distant place. It's a genuine artifact of the human spirit and soul, to be passed along to people you encounter, and passed down through generations, to be given away as a gift of affection and friendship. My wife is just now reading a history of WW I that was lent to me by a friend in Brisbane - and which I will mail back when she's finished reading it. The book has, somehow, the imprint of his friendship on it. God bless books.

M-F-

You're looking at it from the wrong context......it's not going to happen as it logically has in the past. Read a few posts up (ghost has kindly excerpted the likely scenario).

Ciao
MS

RE: Kindle.

The lesson learned here is perform regular "back ups" onto an external drive.
Pretty damn shady of Amazon though.

Hangtown,
I respectfully asked for no jokes.

Which is why I will never buy a Kindle or an Apple product.

same as a real book (or piece of sheet music). you don't have the right to make a nice color copy of a print in an art book, nor do you have the right to perform the music on that sheet in a public and commercial setting.

The last 25 year's of growth has been nothing more then a myth built on cheap available credit

Absolutely agree, MS.

ghost - what you are talking about there is 1000:1 increase, which is 100,000% inflation. Things wont get that far because they dont need to. Why if you had 100,000% inflation, that would mean that a $500,000 mortgage would have a value of 500 bucks. If mortgages were all paid off, and US Federal debt too - the economy would actually be in pretty good shape. The bond holders would have been robbed and the drain on society of debt would be erased - the US doesn't need 100,000% inflation they need 10% inflation for 7 years which would cut the value of fixed debt in half.

hollywood. those restrictions that you mention come from copyright law, not the EULA. my point was that the EULA can abrogate judicially created limitations on copyright. e.g. the first sale doctrine.

"same as a real book (or piece of sheet music)"

But you can give them away.

well, the issue is enforcement. EULAs can ship with all sorts of ridiculous verbiage, but without enforcement, they're a bit silly.

Agreed that massive reform of IP law is necessary, starting with patents (and obviously including the fact that genentech or monsanto could well patent my DNA without my consent or knowledge).

Pavel, Amazon has demo videos of Kindle, answers a lot of questions...not for everyone, but I prefer reading the kindle than a small print classic that costs $20.00. Just my two cents.

Sounds like it's great for reading fiction. Like the New York Times.

"Things wont get that far because they dont need to."

You assume "they" will have control of the situation. "They" won't.

"They" DON'T.
Fixed it for you ghost.

Under hyperinflation, taking back stuff you sold to consumers after a few months, even with a "full" refund, is a fine business plan. Amazon blazing the trail...

I just know I can't afford buying books like I used too, and I don't have the space for many more physical books. I already shop the half-priced and second hand stores, and I can get better prices on Kindle than I can there. I do agree with the fear about censorship though. My wife and I were talking about this last week...with real books there are various editions and you can trace history through those editions sometimes....with digital...one edition, and the opportunity for government censorship and creative editing is great. That is why I will maintain my personal hard back library and will add volumes that I deem necessary to own in the flesh. But I read so much, the kindle has helped me cut expenses and cut through the crap I would have regretted buying in print. Here is a test for how things change...I am currently reading the set of Andrew Lang fairy tale books to my children...compare these to the modern versions and then look back as the original tales Lang edited...it is amazing how much censorship takes place through time...you can argue the spirit of the original tale remains, but I am not sure it does...pros and cons of technology continues.

Did somebody say "Jailbreak"?
YouTube - AC/DC - Jailbreak

Buy the classics; rent the rest.

"I'm 99.5% confident that the S&P500 index explicitly includes dividend returns"

?

hold onto that .5% - historical charts are rarely total return charts in my experience...

Scone, I'd rather have a wheelbarrow of chickens""t than a wheelbarrow of worthless paper

There's gotta be a country song in there somewhere...

"Did somebody say "Jailbreak"?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eG-2tom7mFo"

Cool, just downloaded that to my Iphone via mxtube. Youtube doesn't allow archiving but mxtube does. Word to jailbreak!

Print locally, when necessary. Share code freely with anyone on the planet. George Orwell would be happier if his legal heirs stopped taking a slice of his brain.

Thank you Hollywood Hack.
That brings back memories.

In the book Ecotopia, books were printed out on demand, then recycled if not wanted permanently.

Where have I been - just saw the 'in vino veritas' for the first time - kudos, Ken!

@HollywoodHack:
"I'm 99.5% confident that the S&P500 index explicitly includes dividend returns"?
hold onto that .5% - historical charts are rarely total return charts in my experience...

Wow, I may need to get re-educated. What good is a long-term chart if it doesn't include total returns? Heck, what good is an index if it doesn't capture the total return?

There's gotta be a lot of confused souls on this one, because (for instance) if you download the historical index data (e.g. from Yahoo Finance), you generally get "close" and "adjusted close" data that match, implying that there's no dividend adjustment required.

There's gotta be a lot of confused souls on this one, because (for instance) if you download the historical index data (e.g. from Yahoo Finance), you generally get "close" and "adjusted close" data that match, implying that there's no dividend adjustment required.

No, that means no dividend was paid. You see the difference?

iceman,
I don't go to the library anymore. Tried to take my children to get library cards, and they have the computer stations by the checkout desk and needless to say, I was not pleased with how some were using their 1st amendment rights. If I can't even take my kids to the library without graphic depictions of sex and violence being displayed for all to see, then I am sorry, I won't be going. Anyway, the libraries don't carry the same kind of selection they used too, more and more of the stuff I read is on the 'special order' inter-library loan system.

well, i'm just a yahoo finance punter, not a real bloomberg terminal guy...

but, generally, you find that the adjustment drifts farther away as time goes on when dividends are present, and that disbursements are recorded when they happen.

MO: Historical Prices for ALTRIA GROUP INC - Yahoo! Finance

"Index gains are a mirage "

for the most part, though something like the total wilshire is a decent econometric (though, of course, large entities can move back and forth between public and private, obscuring the value of even that)

@iceman: "Use your local library; save a bundle and it encourages you to read more".

And if you need to, you can get access to much larger libraries with the right legwork.

There's also Project Gutenberg (online texts of non-copyrighted works) instead of Kindle for many classics. Formatting can be an issue but at least you get to own a copy of the raw text data!

Still good to collect hardcopies of the books that really become touchstones in one's life.

But honestly, with 3000 books in the home, you can't even re-read 'em all every few years. And I'm finding for many of mine, I don't even want to.

But I'll never sign up for Kindle on the current business model. Don't own more than a few iTunes songs either (but did digitize our CD library to play on the iPod...)

Library budgets are down to the nub these days, with most stuff being accessed electronically, or that's the idea. We're swamped in studies and task groups to figure out how to keep the library as a resource without budget for paper acquisitions.

Where I work, acquisition budget was the only buffer between us & layoffs, so not many books being bought anymore. There is talk of central loan consortiums (interlibrary loans) with one copy per consortium in actual hard copy.

One question:

If GS and JPM gained 8-9B dollars in the last quarter by speculating and investing-banking, who then lost all that money? Lots of little players/losers OR a big player like the Fed/UncleSam? If it was the latter then was all this planned to play out as such to make markets look healthy and rosy? I was just wondering aloud!

from the pigged part of last thread:
"Stop thinking about the end of the world as you know it. That happens every day, 'cause change is constant. If you think this crisis is over, you're really missing the fact that this isn't an economic crisis, it's a social / political one, and your state, meaning in this case the US government, is still on a totally unsustainable budgetary trajectory. Nothing has happened to change that and everything has happened to accelerate it. The fun hasn't even started yet; wake me up to tell me about the velvet fist when the sovereign defaults and the capital controls come into place. "

Byz, um, the US has been on a unsustainable budget trajectory my entire life.

I was born in 1966- since then the money supply has increased exponentially- yet our standards of living have only (admittedly thusfar) modestly declined.
We have bred the inflation into the cake, and the folks expect nothing less. The funny part is that we all know it is unsustainable, yet on we go.

The Chinese know it is unsustainable, yet they keep buying our paper!!
We will never pay off our debt- because that is literally our money supply- pay it off with what?

Glod and silber are simply insurance against the endgame. But when that endgame arrives is a wild guess.
Nick Chase, of the Contrarian's View, who now rarely posts, had an interesting commentary a few years back.
He was commenting on how somebody he knew had lived a high life on debt, had a lot of fun, leveraged up and won, and then lost, but still died owing quite a bit of money. He thought it was interesting while the guy died insolvent, he still won at the game of life because he did so well robbing Peter to pay Paul. There was more than a little bit of envy in that newsletter entry. Did it ultimately matter how insolvent the guy was at the end? Or did he win by getting society to fund a better life, and leave us holding the bag?

One of the funny things people talk about here is that our grandchildren will pay our debts? But will they? Or will they just ruthlessly walk away?

Time will tell. But for right now, enjoy the stability we have bought. How long it lasts is the next question.

Someday this war's gonna end...

@HollywoodHack and Eric:

I appreciate that indexes don't pay dividends, and I also appreciate that when dividends are paid the close and adjusted close diverge substantially over time.

But for indexes, it seems like a no-brainer that the dividends paid by the component corporations ought to be captured in the index value. So I'm surprised that either this isn't the case (and I missed it) or that if it is the case, no one else seems to know this?

On a positive contribution note: my favorite charting tool in the recent past was BigCharts. (e.g., BigCharts - Interactive Charting )

However, I've recently discovered that StockCharts.com will chart (by default) the total return (adjusted prices) rather than the nominal historical prices. This is quite valuable.

I don't know how you get hyper inflation without wage inflation. How is that supposed to work?

The currency becomes worth a lot less.

Why is a simple idea so hard for some people?

Allen M:

Nice note on "win/lose".

Makes me wonder where I can buy some blow.

I'm getting fussy. Where is my bank failure?!

I keep a lot of books for ideas not to read again in whole necessarily...that is why I have so many. lol, you should see my library, sticky notes everywhere... that is why I call myself an absent minded philosopher. I can be talking about one thing, switch to something else and my wife will look at me like I am speaking in tongues...the connection makes perfect sense to me, but gets lost in translation. I talk a lot about synchronicity and nothing new under the sun because you can trace the same ideas over and over again through literature. Sometimes people are aware that they are copying an idea, sometimes not... it is fascinating to connect the dots...and this hobby and habit requires increasing more input as I go along. I imagine I will end up like Newton measuring the great pyramid over and over again looking for clues, kids keeping me locked up so I don't disturb the neighbors.

"However, I've recently discovered that StockCharts.com will chart (by default) the total return (adjusted prices) rather than the nominal historical prices. This is quite valuable. "

right, there's no reason a total return couldn't be constructed. it just is a matter of whether or not a chart shows the historical record (e.g., on july 1, 1984, the djia closed at...).

it really isn't worth twisting your mind over too much - consider that all charts which include data before the january '33 gold devaluation and after are patently ridiculous. simlarly, the same could be said for almost all data in the hyperinflationary waves of the early and late '70s. price the total return in an ultra-long-average of crude BBLs, and then we're talking

Vonbek,
Sticky notes and cryptic notes scribbled in the margins.
Yep.

Just because the money supply causes inflation (and it will) doesn't mean that you or I will have an appropriate wage gain to keep pace with it.

Correct. That's why I wrote 500% vs. 450% If I wrote 5% vs. 4.5% it's equivalent but not as obvious. The ENTIRE POINT of inflation is to ensure wages do not keep up. But you won't get a situation where inflation = 500% and wage increases = 30%. It's too much of a disparity and everyone will notice. Rip people off by 95% and you'll get riots, rip them off by 20% and all they'll do is grumble about it.

And its meth labs & high number of meth users & alcoholics, don't forget them. Oregon also has had a higher number than average children w/out "food security" for a number of years. I think one year that situation improved, but the recession has destroyed most of the progress that had been made in that area. 12.4% UE in Lincoln county, a small coastal county in OR, the largest city in the county says hotel occupancy down around 9%. That's despite high levels of road traffic & vehicles w/plates from almost every state in the nation.

gold is exactly that, and it does work. anyone can go mine or process their own.

I think that we should separate inflation of prices with devaluation of currency. It would make the conversation a lot easier. So, the side that sees deflation is mostly correct in that there are huge deflationary forces at work. These will result in things that require credit (e.g. houses, cars, jewelery) to deflate. The inflationary side is correct as well, as the value of the measuring stick we are using changes, i.e. the currency itself becomes worth less.

The only issue to me is the following: in all cases other than "hyper-devaluation", I see a reduction in wages and general lack of prosperity since workers will not be able to get wage increases. But, in the case of hyper-devaluation, I see that it is possible for people to actually get nominal wage increases since the currency is depreciating so quickly. However, I have not been able to reason out what to analyze to determine if we will get "gradual" devaluation of the currency or "hyper devaluation". Anyone have any ideas?

Cheaper and safer to trade digital credits than metal.

"And yet, any randomly-selected group of 30 or more stocks will perform pretty much inline with the averages, just because of statistics. So over decade-long time periods the indexes are probably not that bad as market barometers. (At least, if they include dividends... I'm reading the S&P methodology again now....)"

I've actually done much better when I was investing just sticking my money into a bunch of index funds so I don't really have anything against indexes per se. But in terms of using them to correlate to anything historically. Ie. P/E is above trend, below trend etc.. In the 70s p/e bottomed at such and such. I've given up on that as the more I read the more nastiness I've found in every nook and cranny of finances in general. Back in the late 80s S&P changed how the calculated the earnings part of the P/E. Suddenly stocks were fairly valued versus grossly overvalued.

I simply don't trust any methodology anymore and try to stick to gut instinct and have done much better this way.

Can't wait up for FDIC. Good night Sheila.

Ganja

Ganga is the river

"I'm getting fussy. Where is my bank failure?!"

Not on the East Coast, I guess.

no state can 'legalize' it. it can be decriminalized at tolerated at a state level, but the feds determine ultimate legality in the true sense.

HomeGnome's excellent efforts have inspired polls here on the site.

Please vote on how/whether to use them.

Thanks.

"no state can 'legalize' it. it can be decriminalized at tolerated at a state level, but the feds determine ultimate legality in the true sense."

I think the Constitution would disagree with that statement.

Okay, y'all get schooled here (except rich it appears; I'm behind in comment-reading after typing this):

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_US_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

Section on "Index Maintenance"...

Page 11:

Corporate actions (such as stock splits, stock dividends, spin-offs and rights offerings) are
applied after the close of trading on the day prior to the ex-date. Share changes resulting
from exchange offers are made on the ex-date.

While that language isn't totally clear, it sure sounds like the index is split- and dividend-adjusted. There's a much more detailed discussion of how index weights are tweaked. But it appears for S&P, only the Total Market Index offers a "price only" and "total return" breakout.

BTW, I think there is a damn good reason why indices ought to include dividends -- a total return index will always show a higher yearly return than a non-dividend-adjusted index. No one in the indexing business will want "their" indices to appear to lag by a few percent each year and then have to explain how the dividends have to be included but aren't!

If I'm still wrong, then I'd say there's a nice opportunity for someone to produce "better" index data...

I think the Constitution would disagree with that statement.

The what?

"Any truth to the story that CA might legalize and tax Ganga?"

No. But it would help.

"then I'd say there's a nice opportunity for someone to produce "better" index data... "

well, if it isn't something "total", it is pretty useless - didn't an overpriced GOOG join the SPX right around when an undervalued rite-aid was dumped, or some retail chain like that?

and even if it is "total" - things move back and forth from public to private all of the time. something like the Koch holdings could well have more value than almost any ticker out there - but we just don't know what that value is.

"the nothing new under the sun meme comes from Ecclesiastes"

So does, "It rains on the just and the unjust alike." My personal favorite, and my answer to the "God does everything for a reason" people.

" MS (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 5:24 pm

Rich-

1+1=4....that's why people don't catch on too quickly. It's just academic to me this will occur.

Printing =inflation. In order to have wage inflation the corporate sector will have to practice trickle down economics not just lip-service. "

That's an oversimplification, even when you're talking monetary inflation versus price inflation. Since we went off the gold standard, the dollar has been backed by our economy's assets, and our production of good and services, i.e. it's worth what you can buy with it. Assuming that people are productive, and that things are produced, without some degree of monetary inflation, we'd experience paralyzing price deflation.
Additionally, even if we try to inflate the money supply, the effect of people paying off loans tends to negate that. That's not to say that printing money ad infinitum; it just that printing by itself doesn't constitute inflation. There's just more to it than that-

States will begin to reassert the rights that they have under the 10th amendment. California has been doing it for sometime by legalizing medical marijuana, and Wyoming is directly confronting the Feds over gun rights. They (correctly) claim that if a gun is manufactured in Wyoming, sold to a Wyoming resident with no intention to take said gun across state lines then the Federal government has zero authority to regulate the transaction.

Marijuana and hemp will be a huge source of tax revenue and economic growth when states finally stand up to the overreaching federal government.

"States will begin to reassert the rights that they have under the 10th amendment."

hard to shake that fist with one hand while holding a begging hat out with the other...

the federales have been softly dismantling the tenth for many, many decades now. the highway-funds drinking-age campaign in the 80s is just the most obvious example.

Joanna,

You're talking about university libraries, aren't you? Public libraries (at least the ones in the county I live in) have been renting or leasing books for a number of years--particularly if the book is a best seller or book that has high demand in the short term. The local/within county libraries also seem to have a policy of getting rid of any book that hasn't been checked out in a year or so. Last year, I looked for a trilogy I'd checked out of the local library a couple of years before and could not find any of the 3 books and for awhile I couldn't remember either the author's name or the title of the 1st book (the one I wanted to read), just what the book was about.

I eventually tried the excellent used bookstore in the next town, 20 miles away, & asking the manager if she could figure out the title & author of the book from my description of the subject matter. She took me right to a copy. Second or third time she's done that. She reads widely, has a good memory both for what she reads & for the bookstore's large inventory. If you like books, & ever visit the north central OR coast, stop at Robert's Books, in Lincoln City. it's worth walking through to see the owner's collection of book illustrations (particularly sci fi & hardboiled detective mystery book covers) & weapons. The weapons (mostly spears) are suspended from the ceiling & out of reach.

Turned out the library had gotten rid of its copy of the book as no one had checked it out for a year & of course the title/author was removed from the computer catalog as well.

So you disagree with that premise Eric? So what authority do they have, then?

"
HollywoodHack (homepage, profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 5:30 pm

"then I'd say there's a nice opportunity for someone to produce "better" index data... "

well, if it isn't something "total", it is pretty useless - didn't an overpriced GOOG join the SPX right around when an undervalued rite-aid was dumped, or some retail chain like that?

and even if it is "total" - things move back and forth from public to private all of the time. something like the Koch holdings could well have more value than almost any ticker out there - but we just don't know what that value is."

You might try:
Shadow Government Statistics - Home Page 

I note that most of the states where unemployment is in the lower half of the range are small in population and have economies disproportionately involved in energy production. Note sure that it means anything, but there it is.

BFF +1!!!!

First Piedmont Bank, Winder, GA

~$100M

Drink!

[The FDIC and First American Bank and Trust Company entered into a loss-share transaction]

First American discovers assets that will suffer losses and the FDIC takes the loss. Small potatos so no one will even notice - rounding error banking.

We want the !

Dawg,

July 15th came and went with barely a whimper. Wha' happen?

1 down, 2 to go.

Let the games....begin.

" Ecclesiastes should be required reading, funny how many 'born again' types skip right over it."

They skip Amos, too. Almost everybody skips Amos. Amos was a poor tradesman railing against the upper/middle-class Jews who were impoverishing everyone else: keeping them out of courts by force, stealing by "legal' means, sopping up all the cash. Sound familiar?

He wasn't a great wordsmith like Solomon, or whoever wrote Ecclesiastes. But he's a good read if you're in the mood for outrage.

As for your relatives: ask them if their faith requires them to do anything except sit there and have faith. And maybe hand out a pamphlet once in a while. Faith that does nothing, is nothing.

Seems like you guys liked the BFF poll, right?
Please vote for it to continue.
Kcoop's post upthread @ 5:24.
Thanks.

"
Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 5:38 pm

Bob
Good one too. Ecclesiastes should be required reading, funny how many 'born again' types skip right over it."

Not to be anal, but Christianity is based on the teachings found in the New Testament, and the New Testament only. That's why Gideon's Bible has only the New Testament along with Psalms. That said, some of the old testament is useful reading, but unfortunately, there's some bad stuff (eye-for-an-eye, tooth-for-a-tooth for example) that often is called on to justify this or that, and the teachings of Jesus become corrupted. Probably the best example is the Catholic Churches prohibition on contraception. This is based on an episode in the Old Testament where one fellow's brother had died without a male heir, and it was his job to help provide one, even though he was married. Well, the two of them decided they were digging it, so the guy would pull out and "spill his seed". God struck them dead for that, and that's the churches basis for their ruling. There is nothing in Jesus' or his disciple's teaching that would justify this prohibition. You're probably bored already- sorry 'bout that-

that logic was conclusively shot down

I remember reading that case and being astounded by the circular logic. Basically, the ruling is that a state may not disagree with a federal law because that would make the federal law difficult to enforce. Only the dissenters, notably Justice Thomas, pointed out that there was a set of powers for the feds, and the complement of that set is not for the feds. This quote is on point.

If the majority is to be taken seriously, the Federal Government may now regulate quilting bees, clothes drives, and potluck suppers throughout the 50 States. This makes a mockery of Madison's assurance to the people of New York that the "powers delegated" to the Federal Government are "few and defined", while those of the States are "numerous and indefinite.

There is little point arguing the merits here. Some people want federalism, and some don't. Those that don't pay no attention to the 10th amendment. They are also at present a majority. Should the federal government fail effectively enough, many states will increasingly reassert their powers, and fights will ensue. Should sentiment shift enough, we might suddenly rediscover (mirabile dictu) the plain text of the Constitution. I am not holding my breath.

@poic, thanks for the link...

Interesting post. It's true that the people expecting a currency crash have been doing so forever. It's also true these people generally resent those who win.

I was born in 56. My dad was waiting for inflation to ruin everything too. He didn't win or lose, pretty much broke-even.