Oh, cool, I get to use one of the new emoticons for a comment that appeared, well, too late on the thread, even if it was just a parochial California item.
sportsfan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 10:09 pm
E.D., and for the two big counties East of those four, I could summarize the real estate data simply by saying 90% of the sales were REOs and prices were low.
But real estate isn't the whole story or even a big part of the story. It's all about jobs, as in . . . where are they?
According to John Husing, the well-known economic prognosticator for Riverside and San Bernardino Counties (because he's been the only one following that godforsaken area for the past 30 years), job losses this year are expected to increase by about 70% over 2008.
Lemme say that again: There will be 70% more jobs lost in the Inland Empire in 2009 than were lost in 2008, which itself was a year totally enveloped within a recession.
Mr. Husing counted 48,650 jobs lost in 2008
He says there will be 82,600 more jobs lost in 2009.
On a more serious note, the better half is REALLY concerned about H1N1 and what it could do. And unless they can manage to ram through a vaccine, then the only thing that can be done with kids is to push them to do the personal hygiene schtick. Or else wholesale closure of the schools.
Two local schools in my area were closed the last week of May due to Swine Flu scare and never reopened for the rest of the year.
And from what I'm reading in the media regarding this, is that it's primary fatalities are the weakened with underlying conditions.
I'm in New Orleans with church youth next week and upon return, have to consider what to do if the local schools are closed for prolonged period in fall/winter.
Nemo has a high frequency comment server that not only detects new posts, it detects pending comments so he can snark upcoming comments before they even appear.
There should be an SEC rule against the Nemo software.
We're all wondering what's the next shoe to drop, but perhaps this influenza is more like the pot of water slowly raising to a boil and we're all just frogs.
But I'm wondering about CIT. If it's a primary creditor to a sizable number of small businesses who are pretty much cut off from regular credit at the moment, what's the effect of it's bankruptcy on the small businesses? It might be too small to save, but it's a fairly important conduit from what I understand.
Both my wife and I seem to have a nasty flu. Being paranoid she asks me whether it's the swine flu. Me being my idiotic self I pointed out we do eat a lot if Chinese food and need to cut out eating the pork.
OT:
Watching the CNN coverage of the Is on the ground, Indonesian bombings. Two hotels bombed minutes apart. Stunning bad coverage, no journalists on the ground that speak English. They are using cell phone videos uploaded by bystanders. No official comment, even though this happened long ago in Internet time.
Amazing how badly international news coverage has suffered.
Meanwhile, bubble-raping people with oil is just too painful in the short-term, so to make the government happy GS has transitioned back to bubble-raping people with stocks.
When the price of the gas you put in your car doubles you know you're getting screwed; when the price of a stock you're putting into your 401k doubles you think you're getting something special.
So long as the "regulators" are motivated by short-term political outcomes and popularity contests, everything they do will be "wrong".
In a culture devoid of long-term vision or morality "seizing" wealth is all that matters.
Economic growth is only meaningful in as much as it facilitates continuation of existing power monopolies and/or provides more wealth to seize.
Yes, the current situation is different from the Great Depression in the most important way:
Bloggers poised to seize regulators! Hello from the great state of Texas. No. I have not gone back to work at FDIC. 500 banks to fail is way old newz. New newz: 1,000 give or take... somebody pass me the bong..
I still think the markets are overlooking the impact of the Chrysler & GM BK's as well as the state/county/city budget cuts. Those should effectively step the economy down another solid notch this fall.
BTW, everyone see Sprott's latest newsletter talking about Treasury sales? It was posted over at ZeroHedge the other day.
never mind what Sheila thinks the total bank failure rate might be
we want the important stuff: over/under on next 24 hour failures
with additional time zone and pizza preferences
I am thinking of going to DC this year wearing one of the T-shirts during one of those Congressional show hearings. where they parade people in front of the camera and pretend to be independent.
The estranged wife of former U.S. Rep. Chip Pickering claims in a lawsuit that the Mississippi Republican had an affair that ruined their marriage and derailed his political career.
Leisha Pickering said in the lawsuit filed this week that her husband and the woman dated in college, reconnected and began having an affair while he was in Congress and living in a building where several Christian lawmakers reside on C Street near the U.S. Capitol. Chip Pickering is the third Republican with ties to the building at 133 C Street SE to find his personal life making headlines in recent weeks, after Nevada U.S. Sen. John Ensign and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford.
the lender and its financial adviser, Bank of America Corp.
I had no idea B of A was the financial adviser to Corus. It's like finding a piece of the jigsaw puzzle that's at first seems to be totally unrelated, but after you fit the pieces together, you realize just how well it goes together.
BTW, my point above is that "regulators" should go after able-bodied criminals while they're in the midst of a crime spree, not wait until their funeral and take down their dependents once they're defenseless.
listen, I have the Goldman algos and am willing to sell for a buck 98... why? cause
I can not front run trades when my routing seems to go through Mars before it hits
the backbone in the States...
XL X-TREME CHEESE PIZZA only $11.99 pizza loaded with nealry a full pound of cheese..
New Sinnapie fresh banker dough topped with cinnamon, brown sugar streusel and white icing...
Back to business: Today - did you see the Congresscritter ask Sonia Sotomayor what she was gonna do in ten years when the USA could not pay her salary due to the deficits? Another Perry Mason moment...
It about to get much worse. The spam problem from Asia is getting so bad that many providers are starting to block large parts or all of Asia. The latest big spam source is Vietnam. I'll be blocking the entire country in a few weeks. Thailand is already toast, as is Korea and most of China.
From the article: Corus, with a portfolio consisting primarily of condominium construction loans, many in the hard-hit areas of Arizona, Nevada, south Florida and southern California,
Who would want this portfolio? These aren't assets, they're liabilities. I wonder if they gave Cerebus a call.
...the future solvency of the United States as a nation state is currently in jeopardy. It is in far deeper trouble than the mainstream press cares to admit.
"...the future solvency of the United States as a nation state is currently in jeopardy. It is in far deeper trouble than the mainstream press cares to admit."
It wedges browsers. Not subversive, but Adobe's software sucks so badly that some people prefer to avoid PDF links. It really is terrible - frequently freezes during downloads. And it's terribly inefficient.
I'm hip with jg's basic premise -- a reasonably close get-away that could self-sustain for an extended period of time. Not forever, of course, just long enough to weather a good storm. Do it right and it makes for a nice vacation spot, too.
Heck, a decent-sized quake could render LA unlivable for quite a few months.
sm landlord, okay, but I've actually had people request that files be converted to pdf before emailing them as attachments. Personally, I can't remember having a problem with pdfs in at least 10 years.
"Ever entertain the thought semi-seriously yourself?"
Very seriously. But there are problems. Mainly around the issue of having someone present at all times to watch the property, receive mail and shipments, etc.
"p.s.: It was hilarious to hear some activist group call the "Republic of Santa Monica" anti-homeless the other day. "
That is fscking hilarious. What other city gives homeless people phone numbers, lockers, shelters, Internet access, food programs, drug treatment programs, etc.? Maybe SF?
The only anti-homeless action here is about keeping them from destroying the commons.
A nice article to be sure, but this line gave me a chuckle:
The next crisis could look something like the savings-and-loan mess of the 1980s, in which deregulated banks gambled with, or in some cases stole, taxpayers’ money — except that it would involve the financial industry as a whole.
Um ... err ... yah, heaven forfend that should ever happen.
Way back when, when there was a financial crisis, raising the FDIC-guaranteed limiit to $250K was almost universally applauded. Keynsians and conservatives and everyone seemed to think it was the wise thing to do.
Now, with all the delay tactics that have been used (including zombie banks allowed to solicit deposits, and to put that money to work in risky ways to win back their solvency), I wonder how costly those raised FDIC limits are going to be?
Corus and Guaranty and whoever else is on the brink.... How much more money was borrowed and gambled by troubled institutions, backed by you, me and the FDIC?
Another short-term solution with longer-term costs yet to be discovered...???
"okay, but I've actually had people request that files be converted to pdf before emailing them as attachments."
That works. The problem is with the browser plug-ins. They stall and cannot be easily be restarted. Especially if they are over about 500KB. The format is so inefficient that it inflates typical files by large factors, unless the person who creates the file has the expensive program and know how to use it.
PDF is the triumph of style over content. Makes MSWord look good, and that takes some doing.
Mainly around the issue of having someone present at all times to watch the property, receive mail and shipments, etc.
The first can be worked around, and the latter, well, I'd not have anything sent directly. Besides, I'd hide all the good stuff underground. My father was a civil engineer and a contractor; I have more than a few good ideas and the know-how to implement them.
Wish he hadn't passed away a few years back. This would've been his kind of project.
PDF is the triumph of style over content. Makes MSWord look good, and that takes some doing.
sm landlord, I have noticed the huge file sizes that always accompany pdf files. So the problem is the manner in which their code interfaces with a browser. As I said, it's been an awfully long time since I noticed that problem.
FWIW, when creating a text document I prefer WordPerfect. Unfortunately, I then have to convert to MS Word to communicate with the rest of the world or convert to Adobe for those who seem to like it.
BTW, I don't pretend to be a techie. It's just a tool.
.
"Wish he hadn't passed away a few years back. This would've been his kind of project."
My dad passed away on Halloween 2007. He would have loved this as well. One thing I learned from his experiences: he was in to duck hunting, and he and some friends built out a bunch of duck ponds down at the Salton Sea (on the Pacific Flyway). The biggest problem was keeping a decent manager on site to keep an eye on things. You can't just leave a bunch of property unsupervised.
If so, we need to come up with secret signals to identify CR fellows. If you raise the outer finger nuckles a bit in a clenched fist, does it look like the ears of a mortgage pig?
My guess is that you will make provision outside of Santa Monica. My second guess is being a landlord doesn't help a whole lot when no one is paying any rent.
On-site supervision depends. The best place would have the residence set deep in a place covering serious acreage, ideally bordering very large state and/or national protected lands on one or more sides. That makes it too inconvenient for people to bother, especially if they don't know that there's anything there worth getting at.
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- China’s government failed to sell as much debt as it planned for the third time in two weeks on speculation the central bank will push up money-market rates to prevent bubbles in stock and property prices. The finance ministry sold 18.51 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) of the six-month bills, less than the 20 billion yuan on offer, Chinabond said in a statement on its Web site. The average winning yield was 1.6011 percent, higher than the 0.85 percent rate at the last sale of 182-day bills on June 19.
"I'm not sure you know what that phrase means... "
Maybe I do, maybe I don't. I thought that might get a rise out of you.
My point was that if the Islamic uprising is not put down harshly now, the result might need to more horrible later. You may disagree. What do you think?
States' tax revenue fell 11.7% in the first three months of 2009, the steepest decline on record, and collections have gotten even weaker since, according to a report. The drop is intensifying the financial pressure on states and will likely force many of them to revisit their budgets later in the fiscal year. Already several states have struggled to balance their budgets for the year that began July 1; in Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn signed a $26 billion general-fund budget Wednesday night that depends heavily on borrowing and pushes off a reckoning with serious fiscal problems. The 45 states that have reported taxes for April and May have seen revenue declines of about 20%, compared with the same period a year ago, according to the report to be released Friday from the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York.
Say this about the 1,018-page health-care bill that House Democrats unveiled this week and that President Obama heartily endorsed: It finally reveals at least some of the price of the reckless ambitions of our current government. With huge majorities and a President in a rush to outrun the declining popularity of his agenda, Democrats are bidding to impose an unrepealable European-style welfare state in a matter of weeks.
Q: I'm an intelligent, talented and creative person, but I'm lacking motivation to perform my job to the best of my abilities, and it is starting to show. I'm planning on leaving my firm for graduate school next year, but in the meantime, do you have any ideas on how I can regain my motivation at work? There are no upcoming projects which even hold the remotest level of interest for me, and based on my recent performance review, I would not likely be assigned them to begin with.
A: The first step in getting your motivation back is admitting that it's missing in the first place. My next suggestion is to try to focus on the big picture of your career instead of the daily frustrations of your current job. If you're on your way to getting an advanced degree, then you have already realized a very important goal. Give yourself credit for this! Also, realize that nothing and no one have the power to control your attitude but you. For some help here, I recommend picking up Dale Carnegie's "How to Stop Worrying and Start Living," and "How to Win Friends & Influence People." Also, sign up for any personal development or leadership courses your company offers, and stay busy so you don't have time to sit around and think about how much better your job situation could be.
Well, I thought we were able to contact each other through this site. Perhaps that was in an earlier iteration when it may have been called 'private message' or something like that.
In checking my account here, I see that I have enabled 'contact settings,' but when seeking to access "your personal contact form," my access was denied.
From the account: Contact settings
Personal contact form
Allow other users to contact you by e-mail via your personal contact form. Note that while your e-mail address is not made public to other members of the community, privileged users such as site administrators are able to contact you even if you choose not to enable this feature.
It may be that kcoop has disabled this feature for now. It may be something else entirely. I'm not going to worry about it now.
Now, if we were really going to get a few like-minded people together and do it right, then we'd be talking thousands of acres and our own private mini-FBO. The machine shop would come in handy for strapping 30's onto the 310 -- ever see "The Wild Geese"?
kcoop, okay, I've got it now. You see, I'm really not a techie.
If you click on another member's profile and that member has enabled contact settings, you can communicate with that other member directly (by email ?) without viewing that other member's email address.
It just takes me a while longer than the average bear. Goodnight again.
Cramer is one of the best contrarian indicators.. if he says 'x' is true, then it is likely false.. if he says 'y' is good, run for cover.. if he says 'z' is a good investment, short it!
The U.S. House approved legislation Thursday to force General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC to reinstate as many as 3,200 dealers the car makers cut as part of their government-backed bankruptcy reorganizations. The measure, if it becomes law, would disrupt the Obama administration's efforts to revamp the U.S. car industry, and is an indication of the role Washington's political machine will play in how the companies are run. It's also a snub from Congressional Democrats to the White House, which strongly opposed the measure. This week, the White House stopped short of threatening a veto, but warned of the harm the bill would cause.
Jamie Waylett plays Draco Malfoy's right-hand man in the Potter films A Harry Potter actor has admitted growing cannabis in his mother's north-west London home.
Jamie Waylett, 19, who plays bully Vincent Crabbe in the film series, pleaded guilty to growing 10 cannabis plants in tents at the Kilburn house. The court heard police found shots of the plants on Mr Waylett's camera after he was arrested for taking a picture of officers as he and a friend drove past.
sm_landlord
thanks for the info on the SPAM problem... had no idea,
and all this time I thought all those kids in the internet cafes
were playing that Chinese warload game ;0
B of A was hired by Corus because they own Merrill Lynch. Together, B of A and Merrill have a huge number of institutional customers who might be interested in buying all or part of Corus. And, of course, they also have good rapport with the Treasury and the Fed, too. (or not)
I'm not worried about it; I'm just saying that I think my strategy will be to buy otm puts on TLT and roll those every 6 or 3 months. In addition to holding PM ETFs. My GLD hasn't gotten stopped out like just about all the other commodities I've been holding.
I just got confirmation that my 401(k) was liquidated yesterday. Screw the penalties; there's no reason to be in a retirement fund that limits my investment options and flexibility.
Anyone know anything about China and their African angle? Me and a friend got into a debate. Him saying China was set up to use Africa as their source for cheap labor. I was protesting that notion as I'd think the Chinese people would like to be employed; but he seemed to think China was going to follow America down the path we've gone 20 years. He went so far as to say the Chinese are smart in that they've got a number of "economically stimulating wars" ready to fight. He also believes America will be fighting "economically stimulating wars"... myself and the other guy I was with were questioning why he thought Iraq and Afghanistan were economically stimulating.
"police found shots of the plants on Mr Waylett's camera after he was arrested for taking a picture of officers as he and a friend drove past."
That is some pretty dubious probable cause. Is there some expectation of privacy, on a public road? Or is law enforcement somehow a protected class? Nice way to prevent any Rodney King SNAFUs. Are the tabloids under the same obligations?
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- China’s government failed to sell as much debt as it planned for the third time in two weeks on speculation the central bank will push up money-market rates to prevent bubbles in stock and property prices.
The finance ministry sold 18.51 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) of the six-month bills, less than the 20 billion yuan on offer, Chinabond said in a statement on its Web site. The average winning yield was 1.6011 percent, higher than the 0.85 percent rate at the last sale of 182-day bills on June 19.
YLSP - Having been to China a couple times, and having seen how poor the people are outside of the big cities, I have a very hard time buying the cheap labor angle. Cheap oil, cheap iron ore, cheap bauxite, etc. That seems like a much more likely reason.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 2:26 am
Anyone know anything about China and their African angle? Me and a friend got into a debate. Him saying China was set up to use Africa as their source for cheap labor.
YLSP -- I believe the angle is resources vs. labor. China has a lot of unemployed people, so outsourcing is not yet on the agenda. But they have well-documented needs for resources (already extracted, all the better). And fungibility is on the way out. Locked-in decade-long contracts for resources are the new black.
The court heard police found shots of the plants on Mr Waylett's camera after he was arrested for taking a picture of officers as he and a friend drove past.
How Soviet.
Sounds like: "Section 44."
Feels like: Brazil (the movie).
"I'm guessing this happened in England? I'm not sure what their privacy protections are... but I don't think they have many."
It saddens me that it seems to be popular perception that the only rights we in the USA have, are those spelled out in the Bill of Rights. The founders worried that by itemizing them we might be limited to just those, but I suspect that if they had not been spelled out, we would not have even those.
"The finance ministry sold 18.51 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) of the six-month bills, less than the 20 billion yuan on offer, Chinabond said in a statement on its Web site. The average winning yield was 1.6011 percent, higher than the 0.85 percent rate at the last sale of 182-day bills on June 19."
The idea of China issuing debt so that they can continue to feed our own debt addiction, seems quite bubbly and ponzi like, to me.
And while the police and "security" agencies are busy arresting and jailing people for growing, possessing and consuming Cannabis; bankers are destroying their countries and economies.
Who is doing more public harm?
"It saddens me that it seems to be popular perception that the only rights we in the USA have, are those spelled out in the Bill of Rights."
Blackhalo, I think that we can't agree on many others. For instance, many of us who live in the city don't think very much of the "right to bear arms", especially hand guns and most especially, here in the city.
Do we have a right to privacy? I think so, but guys who sell information about my buying or banking habits probably don't agree. What rights to you think should be spelled out and why?
"What rights to you think should be spelled out and why?"
I do not think it should have to be spelled out, as anything not explicitly granted to the government by the constitution, should be reserved to the people. If there is enough public support for additional powers, they can be granted via amendment. Not by way of PATRIOT or TARP type measures.
"Who has really done more to destroy freedom in America, Al Q or USG? "
Al Q was a convenient excuse to take power from the public and concentrate it into the hands of the monied few, in my opinion.
Meanwhile in Sag Harbor, CNBC is reporting from a luxury yacht dock. All is well, and we get to see where Wall street spends the summers. The GE party yacht will be leaving soon.
Roubini clarifies:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Economist Nouriel Roubini on Thursday refuted reports that he had improved his economic outlook, saying his comments at an investors conference earlier in the day were taken out of context. "I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010," Roubini said in a statement.
How could BoA miss? Ken Lewis must be a total incompetent, or else maybe the acquisitive widdle rednecks are getting eaten by their newly acquired partners.
traderwalt: It may have something to do with start the python hunt in the Everglades that begins today.
Which while more interesting than a Fortran hunt in the Alps is probably not comparable to a LISP hunt inside route 128.
But my money is shooting bugs on the wide, open C.
We believe that our perception is almost complete, a few blind spots float around that we occasionally stumble upon.
The Reality is that our perception is tiny and our blind spots are enormous. There might be 1000 things visible but as a society, we agree that all of us will see only the same 10 objects. The Real Estate Crash is a perfect example. How could so few see it coming? Why did those few see it at all?
broward,
This is a good topic for discussion...my answer is we are paradoxical creatures...I think a lot of people saw this coming. Some felt it instinctively, it just seemed wrong. Some, had the business fundamentals to know it was wrong, and some had the macro-economical talent to see that the whole system was a house of cards. But as a whole, we are herd animals...we test our views on the masses...when all the cold water in the world bounces off the sheep, you just get wet, and start to question your own views... This is the whole one step forward, two steps back progression of human history. Many people knew, just couldn't believe what they knew in face of the herd mentality. My take at least.
Broward, it seems that people like Roubini and Taleb saw it just fine.
To be recognized as early these people had not only to notice it but to talk about it, and to talk about it loudly enough to get over the energy of activation inherent in the mainstream press.
Rex,
The amount of money we waste each year on pet pork terrestrial based projects....factor that in....we should be on Mars damn it! None of our progress means anything if we can't get off this rock.
I'm sitting in my room, imagining all possible interactions of the objects. A letter from the IRS, my glass of juice, the swivel chair, socks on the floor. The interplay is infinite, for practical purposes. Predicting the interplay can be done but it's enormously complicated. I think of what I can perceive versus what I can't and it seems to me that my perception is a tiny sliver of what's possible.
So if I only see 1% of Reality (and potential Reality), how hard is it to get two people to see mostly the same Reality?
Truly, the mechanism of filtering must be highly conformist.
Yes, Taleb and Roubini say it coming but even they couldn't judge timing or specific events.
And even they could not alter the shared Reality to force others to see it.
I wish I could figure it out, see the discontinuities better.
But by definition, they are out of my field of sight.
I know they're there, though, i can deduce their existence.
Through abstraction, we can, with a degree of error, predict outcomes from observing that interplay with the crude instruments that we have.
Taleb's logic is founded in observed cycles. When the pedulum swings to one extreme, given that it is still attached, logic says that it will make the return trip.
Roubini and Taleb did talk but it made little difference.
People who understood mostly already understood from previous experience.
People who did not ignored them.
I wonder why The Great Reckoning changed my thinking & expectations but for most others it didn't.
There's a tradeoff in value.
Adhering to the social reality is a safe bet but there's net positives and negatives in the equation.
Following the herd is not always profitable.
I just can't figure out the perception part.
Roubini is now bound to the fate of the Recession meme, at least partly and now he's squirming, trying to have it both ways.
The upside without the downside.
Will Krugman suffer the same fate but to a lessor degree, because he's bound to the Recession meme to a lessor degree?
Will he struggle like Roubini?
Does he even know if he should?
thanks hg
jax fdic should open in sept and does anyone know if they (fdic) had other branches they really should have them in each time zone. thats what im waiting for.
I read the Philip K. Dick bio because someone mentioned it.
Many years ago, my brother and I walked into the Brown Bag restaurant. It was crowded with many people waiting at the register so I waited there and he walked off to the restroom. There was open space by the register which said, "Keep Clear", so I took two steps over into it and stood against the wall, waiting. I stared down at the floor and made myself invisible.
When he came back, his eyes passed over me. He stood in my original spot, searching the crowd for several seconds and then I took two steps back and tapped him on the shoulder. He jumped and turned around.
"Where did you come from?"
I told him I stepped into the Crawspace of Reality and he filtered me out because he was trained to.
"You're creepy sometimes", he said and we both laughed about it.
“My FICO score and ability to get credit is in danger,” said Stern, 64. The limit on his credit card, which he relies on for business purposes, was slashed to $500 from $15,000. “This program is helping with payments on one side, but then hurting your credit on the other, so you wind up behind the eight ball.”
FICO may study whether penalizing borrowers for loan workouts is still valid as more changes are completed under the Obama administration’s housing plan, Dornhelm said.
But the lender didn't tell me there would be consequences for anything I did!
is there any place that i find puts like those got those on them seems like there ought to be a lot of sell or maybe the judas goat computer will lead into some buys. know what i mean,i hope so cause im not sure i am asking the right question.
broward,
What is your view on duality? See I think our herd programming overlays both the conscious and unconscious self. This is important because people with the gift of sight..no matter what form it takes, have a connection with the unconscious self that many don't. If you look at the people who have kicked humanity down the road of progress...there are lots of non-conformists...these people are not moved by herd programming in the same ways, but make no mistake they still have the programming. It is another paradox that the most individual people among us are the most connected with the unconscious. The old yoda line, you have to unlearn what you have learned...I have mentioned before, I have a very platonic view of humanity. If you look at a finite being in touch with an infinite soul...see these concepts expressed as conscious and unconscious....take it a step further and see it as individual/group mind...then the herd programming makes sense...it is a firewall to maintain mental networks. Finite can't perceive the infinite, infinite can't see parts from a whole...goes back to the tree of knowledge motif...just because our eyes were open, and we can see like gods, doesn't mean we are gods...
If we are lucky, we can be Cassandra. See parts of the future, but that sight doesn't mean we get to change the future.
When you stop believing that the freakish amounts of wealth hoarded by the people at the very top are going to be shared with you through some sort of "financial ecosystem"... then you'll see the folly.
As long as you believe they don't intend to keep it all for themselves - or let YOU in to the party - you won't see the folly.
The whole system depends on people believing that they will be the special ones to be asked to stay at the party once the door shuts.
And let me be the first to suggest: how about the winner[s] of these weekly polls each volunteer to contribute $10 to the tip jar (if and when CR and Ken ever get it back up and running)? I'm good for it if my number comes up.
BTW, Ken - are you still fielding suggestions for icons? In celebration of BFF, how's about a icon?
Time for the final Corus line
Hoover's Home Turf. Ouch.
Nemo, do you have your server colocated with CR so you can front run all of the other commenters?
Tomorrow might be real busy ...
best to all
Oh, cool, I get to use one of the new emoticons for a comment that appeared, well, too late on the thread, even if it was just a parochial California item.
sportsfan (profile) wrote (in reply to...) on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 10:09 pm
E.D., and for the two big counties East of those four, I could summarize the real estate data simply by saying 90% of the sales were REOs and prices were low.
But real estate isn't the whole story or even a big part of the story. It's all about jobs, as in . . . where are they?
According to John Husing, the well-known economic prognosticator for Riverside and San Bernardino Counties (because he's been the only one following that godforsaken area for the past 30 years), job losses this year are expected to increase by about 70% over 2008.
Lemme say that again: There will be 70% more jobs lost in the Inland Empire in 2009 than were lost in 2008, which itself was a year totally enveloped within a recession.
Mr. Husing counted 48,650 jobs lost in 2008
He says there will be 82,600 more jobs lost in 2009.
Inland Empire Quarterly Economic Report
They aren't making any more real estate these days, but we aren't losing any of it that we already have. Jobs, on the other hand, . . . .
Hope things are going well Hoops.
Isn't Dykstra on the Corus board of directors?
On a more serious note, the better half is REALLY concerned about H1N1 and what it could do. And unless they can manage to ram through a vaccine, then the only thing that can be done with kids is to push them to do the personal hygiene schtick. Or else wholesale closure of the schools.
Two local schools in my area were closed the last week of May due to Swine Flu scare and never reopened for the rest of the year.
And from what I'm reading in the media regarding this, is that it's primary fatalities are the weakened with underlying conditions.
I'm in New Orleans with church youth next week and upon return, have to consider what to do if the local schools are closed for prolonged period in fall/winter.
Nemo has a high frequency comment server that not only detects new posts, it detects pending comments so he can snark upcoming comments before they even appear.
There should be an SEC rule against the Nemo software.
If Nemo could only use his genius for the betterment of his fellow man, but no...
We're all wondering what's the next shoe to drop, but perhaps this influenza is more like the pot of water slowly raising to a boil and we're all just frogs.
2.5B in non preforming assets on a 5.4B book.
That, friends, is busto.
I think Nemo is just using a tweaked version of GS's front running crap...
RE-Swine flu
that mercury news article in last thread is pretty scary..its picking up speed now...
In case this hasn't been mentioned, Ben Dover has a job waiting at Treasury. See Zero Hedge -- Paging Ben Dover.
TJ:
Same thoughts here re next shoe to drop.
But I'm wondering about CIT. If it's a primary creditor to a sizable number of small businesses who are pretty much cut off from regular credit at the moment, what's the effect of it's bankruptcy on the small businesses? It might be too small to save, but it's a fairly important conduit from what I understand.
nytol
So what you're trying to say coinz, is that he has the same type of black box as goldman but uses it for much more benign purposes?
That, friends, is busto.
Naw, commom, that's only 46% impaired. A little TARP will take care of that!
Both my wife and I seem to have a nasty flu. Being paranoid she asks me whether it's the swine flu. Me being my idiotic self I pointed out we do eat a lot if Chinese food and need to cut out eating the pork.
Markets are rallying, a great time to being pulling the plug on banks while there is some euphoria leftover.
anyone good for drawing a nice pair of steel-toed bunny slippers?
While we are at it...
Had to be tested for swine flu the other week when being seen for what wound up being pneumonia. The swab in the nostril does tickle, however...
hope things are okay, poic.
G'night folks.
OT:
Watching the CNN coverage of the Is on the ground, Indonesian bombings. Two hotels bombed minutes apart. Stunning bad coverage, no journalists on the ground that speak English. They are using cell phone videos uploaded by bystanders. No official comment, even though this happened long ago in Internet time.
Amazing how badly international news coverage has suffered.
Nemo, do you have your server colocated with CR so you can front run all of the other commenters?
Nah. I just hired this Russian guy to steal the secret algorithms from Ken.
Like they say, any technology distinguishable from magic is insufficient.
(Notification of inability to timely file).
What causes repeated late filings? (or did the not file, just filed the delay?)
I wonder if they'll try and slip a few small banks in while everyone is looking at the Corus Girl doing her perp walk for loose behavior.
Meanwhile, bubble-raping people with oil is just too painful in the short-term, so to make the government happy GS has transitioned back to bubble-raping people with stocks.
When the price of the gas you put in your car doubles you know you're getting screwed; when the price of a stock you're putting into your 401k doubles you think you're getting something special.
So long as the "regulators" are motivated by short-term political outcomes and popularity contests, everything they do will be "wrong".
In a culture devoid of long-term vision or morality "seizing" wealth is all that matters.
Economic growth is only meaningful in as much as it facilitates continuation of existing power monopolies and/or provides more wealth to seize.
Yes, the current situation is different from the Great Depression in the most important way:
The bad guys are winning.
Bloggers poised to seize regulators! Hello from the great state of Texas. No. I have not gone back to work at FDIC. 500 banks to fail is way old newz. New newz: 1,000 give or take... somebody pass me the bong..
homedad43,
I still think the markets are overlooking the impact of the Chrysler & GM BK's as well as the state/county/city budget cuts. Those should effectively step the economy down another solid notch this fall.
BTW, everyone see Sprott's latest newsletter talking about Treasury sales? It was posted over at ZeroHedge the other day.
Doctor: Good news! We thought you might have the flu, but it's just pneumonia.
FFDIC,
Hey, old buddy! Howz it going? Been collecting any good inside sh!t while you been out?
p.s.: How's your daughter?
FFDIC! Here ya go:
enjoy.
never mind what Sheila thinks the total bank failure rate might be
we want the important stuff: over/under on next 24 hour failures
with additional time zone and pizza preferences
Sorry, just had to... love that pig!!!
I am thinking of going to DC this year wearing one of the
T-shirts during one of those Congressional show hearings. where they parade people in front of the camera and pretend to be independent.
carpe corus
Joy of Sachs
Cute.
OT: Oh goody, more salaciousness.
The estranged wife of former U.S. Rep. Chip Pickering claims in a lawsuit that the Mississippi Republican had an affair that ruined their marriage and derailed his political career.
Leisha Pickering said in the lawsuit filed this week that her husband and the woman dated in college, reconnected and began having an affair while he was in Congress and living in a building where several Christian lawmakers reside on C Street near the U.S. Capitol. Chip Pickering is the third Republican with ties to the building at 133 C Street SE to find his personal life making headlines in recent weeks, after Nevada U.S. Sen. John Ensign and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford.
the lender and its financial adviser, Bank of America Corp.
I had no idea B of A was the financial adviser to Corus. It's like finding a piece of the jigsaw puzzle that's at first seems to be totally unrelated, but after you fit the pieces together, you realize just how well it goes together.
Wow, that's Krugman's best rant in ages.
BTW, my point above is that "regulators" should go after able-bodied criminals while they're in the midst of a crime spree, not wait until their funeral and take down their dependents once they're defenseless.
"I had no idea B of A was the financial adviser to Corus"
Who in their right mind would take financial advice from BofA?
listen, I have the Goldman algos and am willing to sell for a buck 98... why? cause
I can not front run trades when my routing seems to go through Mars before it hits
the backbone in the States...
Chip Pickering is the third Republican with ties to the building at 133 C Street SE
All in The Family?
Apparently Jamal Islam is able to organize and raise money freely in Indonesia.
They're gonna have to go all Pol Pot on those dudes.
XL X-TREME CHEESE PIZZA only $11.99 pizza loaded with nealry a full pound of cheese..
New Sinnapie fresh banker dough topped with cinnamon, brown sugar streusel and white icing...
Back to business: Today - did you see the Congresscritter ask Sonia Sotomayor what she was gonna do in ten years when the USA could not pay her salary due to the deficits? Another Perry Mason moment...
Duke,
It about to get much worse. The spam problem from Asia is getting so bad that many providers are starting to block large parts or all of Asia. The latest big spam source is Vietnam. I'll be blocking the entire country in a few weeks. Thailand is already toast, as is Korea and most of China.
The Economy Is Even Worse Than You Think
The average length of unemployment is higher than it's been since government began tracking the data in 1948.
Krugman fires across the bows of GS in today's OpEd.
Sounds like Krugman is beginning to realize we need to "purge the rottenness".
It was never about liquidating homeowners -- it was about liquidating the loanowners.
From the article:
Corus, with a portfolio consisting primarily of condominium construction loans, many in the hard-hit areas of Arizona, Nevada, south Florida and southern California,
Who would want this portfolio? These aren't assets, they're liabilities. I wonder if they gave Cerebus a call.
WARNING: PDF
The Solution... is the Problem
...the future solvency of the United States as a nation state is currently in jeopardy. It is in far deeper trouble than the mainstream press cares to admit.
"I wonder if they gave Cerebus a call."
Man has their rep suffered, eh?
Sounds like Krugman is beginning to realize we need to "purge the rottenness".
No, I think he just needs some more roast beef.
"...the future solvency of the United States as a nation state is currently in jeopardy. It is in far deeper trouble than the mainstream press cares to admit."
Ready to buy that ranch in Nevada?
No, I think he just needs some more roast beef.
No... that's the last thing he needs more of.
WARNING: PDF
TJ, what's the purpose of this? I've seen it many times, but never understood why.
My first comment on this blog links to a pdf file, but I didn't warn anyone about that fact.
Do some folks consider Adobe subversive?
sm_landlord,
Yep. Ever entertain the thought semi-seriously yourself?
p.s.: It was hilarious to hear some activist group call the "Republic of Santa Monica" anti-homeless the other day.
sportsfan,
Some people's systems choke on them, so it's a courtesy.
It wedges browsers. Not subversive, but Adobe's software sucks so badly that some people prefer to avoid PDF links. It really is terrible - frequently freezes during downloads. And it's terribly inefficient.
TJ, I have a hard time believing systems would choke on pdf files these days.
I'm in the middle of nowhere, but I'm not using a 28.8 modem either
sm_landlord,
I'm hip with jg's basic premise -- a reasonably close get-away that could self-sustain for an extended period of time. Not forever, of course, just long enough to weather a good storm. Do it right and it makes for a nice vacation spot, too.
Heck, a decent-sized quake could render LA unlivable for quite a few months.
sm landlord, okay, but I've actually had people request that files be converted to pdf before emailing them as attachments. Personally, I can't remember having a problem with pdfs in at least 10 years.
Heck, a decent-sized quake could render LA unlivable for quite a few months.
Katrina was 2005.
This is our government we're talking about.
"Ever entertain the thought semi-seriously yourself?"
Very seriously. But there are problems. Mainly around the issue of having someone present at all times to watch the property, receive mail and shipments, etc.
"p.s.: It was hilarious to hear some activist group call the "Republic of Santa Monica" anti-homeless the other day. "
That is fscking hilarious. What other city gives homeless people phone numbers, lockers, shelters, Internet access, food programs, drug treatment programs, etc.? Maybe SF?
The only anti-homeless action here is about keeping them from destroying the commons.
A nice article to be sure, but this line gave me a chuckle:
The next crisis could look something like the savings-and-loan mess of the 1980s, in which deregulated banks gambled with, or in some cases stole, taxpayers’ money — except that it would involve the financial industry as a whole.
Um ... err ... yah, heaven forfend that should ever happen.
Way back when, when there was a financial crisis, raising the FDIC-guaranteed limiit to $250K was almost universally applauded. Keynsians and conservatives and everyone seemed to think it was the wise thing to do.
Now, with all the delay tactics that have been used (including zombie banks allowed to solicit deposits, and to put that money to work in risky ways to win back their solvency), I wonder how costly those raised FDIC limits are going to be?
Corus and Guaranty and whoever else is on the brink.... How much more money was borrowed and gambled by troubled institutions, backed by you, me and the FDIC?
Another short-term solution with longer-term costs yet to be discovered...???
I'm in the middle of nowhere, but I'm not using a 28.8 modem either
Wow, you're even more handicapped than I thought.
I upgraded to 28.8 quite some time ago.
"okay, but I've actually had people request that files be converted to pdf before emailing them as attachments."
That works. The problem is with the browser plug-ins. They stall and cannot be easily be restarted. Especially if they are over about 500KB. The format is so inefficient that it inflates typical files by large factors, unless the person who creates the file has the expensive program and know how to use it.
PDF is the triumph of style over content. Makes MSWord look good, and that takes some doing.
The next crisis could look something like the savings-and-loan mess of the 1980s
The Feds can just backstop this, either explicitly or without telling anyone.
They can suspend the capital requirements.
Mainly around the issue of having someone present at all times to watch the property, receive mail and shipments, etc.
The first can be worked around, and the latter, well, I'd not have anything sent directly. Besides, I'd hide all the good stuff underground. My father was a civil engineer and a contractor; I have more than a few good ideas and the know-how to implement them.
Wish he hadn't passed away a few years back. This would've been his kind of project.
or you could get a mac. Their native PDF implementation is lightning quick.
broward,
How many cougar's hearts are you breaking by spending your nights here with us?
OT, but anyone tried those Flip Mino miniature camcorders? Look pretty cute.
so funny to see the establishment finally parrot the tin-foil hat crowd circa '02.
i have a better headline: "ron paul was right ten years ago and i was deeply, totally wrong"
Back "On Topic"...
What's the over/under on BFF?
They can suspend the capital requirements.
Or they could do something really sneaky, like changing accounting standards.
Naaaah.
How many cougar's hearts are you breaking by spending your nights here with us
Dont know, I don't spend time on dating anymore.
GF in Seattle + whoever she includes is good enough.
PDF is the triumph of style over content. Makes MSWord look good, and that takes some doing.
sm landlord, I have noticed the huge file sizes that always accompany pdf files. So the problem is the manner in which their code interfaces with a browser. As I said, it's been an awfully long time since I noticed that problem.
FWIW, when creating a text document I prefer WordPerfect. Unfortunately, I then have to convert to MS Word to communicate with the rest of the world or convert to Adobe for those who seem to like it.
BTW, I don't pretend to be a techie. It's just a tool.
.
"Wish he hadn't passed away a few years back. This would've been his kind of project."
My dad passed away on Halloween 2007. He would have loved this as well. One thing I learned from his experiences: he was in to duck hunting, and he and some friends built out a bunch of duck ponds down at the Salton Sea (on the Pacific Flyway). The biggest problem was keeping a decent manager on site to keep an eye on things. You can't just leave a bunch of property unsupervised.
My father was a civil engineer . . .
Something else we have in common. Me, too, on having him involved if he were still with us.
Pausing and wondering if we're gonna find ourselves in nova's fictional world before this all blows over.
My father was a civil engineer . . .
Something else we have in common
Strange world.
My father and grandfather were, too.
The WPA Effect.
"Pausing and wondering if we're gonna find ourselves in nova's fictional world before this all blows over."
We're already headed there. Now it's all about the positioning.
sportsfan,
If so, we need to come up with secret signals to identify CR fellows. If you raise the outer finger nuckles a bit in a clenched fist, does it look like the ears of a mortgage pig?
You guys ever hear this one...
"A mechanical engineer builds weapons; a civil engineer builds targets."
Financial engineers build weapons of mass destruction.
My dad was a chemical engineer with a specialty in thermodynamics.
That turned out to be weapons systems design.
Now it's all about the positioning.
My guess is that you will make provision outside of Santa Monica. My second guess is being a landlord doesn't help a whole lot when no one is paying any rent.
TJ, I believe we can communicate through this site if it gets that far along . . . and the internet is still up.
Added: yes, it does, but it kinda reminds me of a gang sign.
sm_landlord,
On-site supervision depends. The best place would have the residence set deep in a place covering serious acreage, ideally bordering very large state and/or national protected lands on one or more sides. That makes it too inconvenient for people to bother, especially if they don't know that there's anything there worth getting at.
sm_landlord
"go all Pol Pot on those dudes"
I'm not sure you know what that phrase means...
The "Colbert Report" had the NYT guy who used to write about the housing bubble, but ended up in foreclosure.
So far, so good. Zero vacancy rate so far (knock wood). But I'm not counting it.
sportsfan,
I was (semi-)kidding, but... if any of us ever ran across each other in person it'd be nice to know before any shots were fired.
TJ, absolutely. I've only once gotten together with a group of posters from the internet. It was a trip, well worth it.
. . . and that was during the 'good old days.'
Who knows what's to come.
Zero vacancy rate so far (knock wood
You're not charging enough.
Raise the rent slowly, like boiling a frog, until one renter finally bolts, then back it down 5%.
China Debt Auction Demand Falls Short for Third Time (Update1)
China Debt Auction Demand Falls Short for Third Time (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
By Bloomberg News
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- China’s government failed to sell as much debt as it planned for the third time in two weeks on speculation the central bank will push up money-market rates to prevent bubbles in stock and property prices. The finance ministry sold 18.51 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) of the six-month bills, less than the 20 billion yuan on offer, Chinabond said in a statement on its Web site. The average winning yield was 1.6011 percent, higher than the 0.85 percent rate at the last sale of 182-day bills on June 19.
"I'm not sure you know what that phrase means... "
Maybe I do, maybe I don't. I thought that might get a rise out of you.
My point was that if the Islamic uprising is not put down harshly now, the result might need to more horrible later. You may disagree. What do you think?
Plunging Revenue Squeezes State Budgets Further
Plunging Revenue Squeezes State Budgets Further - WSJ.com
By AMY MERRICK and CONOR DOUGHERTY
States' tax revenue fell 11.7% in the first three months of 2009, the steepest decline on record, and collections have gotten even weaker since, according to a report. The drop is intensifying the financial pressure on states and will likely force many of them to revisit their budgets later in the fiscal year. Already several states have struggled to balance their budgets for the year that began July 1; in Illinois, Gov. Pat Quinn signed a $26 billion general-fund budget Wednesday night that depends heavily on borrowing and pushes off a reckoning with serious fiscal problems. The 45 states that have reported taxes for April and May have seen revenue declines of about 20%, compared with the same period a year ago, according to the report to be released Friday from the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government at the State University of New York.
if the Islamic uprising is not put down harshly
???
!!!!!!
SML = GWB?!!
hahahahaha.....................
A Reckless Congress: Democrats want to ram through one of the greatest raids on private income and business in American history.
A Reckless Congress: Health-care bill to impose new taxes, welfare state - WSJ.com
Say this about the 1,018-page health-care bill that House Democrats unveiled this week and that President Obama heartily endorsed: It finally reveals at least some of the price of the reckless ambitions of our current government. With huge majorities and a President in a rush to outrun the declining popularity of his agenda, Democrats are bidding to impose an unrepealable European-style welfare state in a matter of weeks.
broward,
This one is for you
How to Regain Motivation at Work
How to Regain Motivation at Work - WSJ.com
By ALEXANDRA LEVIT
Q: I'm an intelligent, talented and creative person, but I'm lacking motivation to perform my job to the best of my abilities, and it is starting to show. I'm planning on leaving my firm for graduate school next year, but in the meantime, do you have any ideas on how I can regain my motivation at work? There are no upcoming projects which even hold the remotest level of interest for me, and based on my recent performance review, I would not likely be assigned them to begin with.
A: The first step in getting your motivation back is admitting that it's missing in the first place. My next suggestion is to try to focus on the big picture of your career instead of the daily frustrations of your current job. If you're on your way to getting an advanced degree, then you have already realized a very important goal. Give yourself credit for this! Also, realize that nothing and no one have the power to control your attitude but you. For some help here, I recommend picking up Dale Carnegie's "How to Stop Worrying and Start Living," and "How to Win Friends & Influence People." Also, sign up for any personal development or leadership courses your company offers, and stay busy so you don't have time to sit around and think about how much better your job situation could be.
Lucifer - you have cause and effect reversed.
I don't want to see a "solution" that involves the deaths of millions of muslims.
We are at risk of that if a better solution is not found. Do not discount what could happen if this sort of thing gets out of control.
Well, I thought we were able to contact each other through this site. Perhaps that was in an earlier iteration when it may have been called 'private message' or something like that.
In checking my account here, I see that I have enabled 'contact settings,' but when seeking to access "your personal contact form," my access was denied.
From the account:
Contact settings
Personal contact form
Allow other users to contact you by e-mail via your personal contact form. Note that while your e-mail address is not made public to other members of the community, privileged users such as site administrators are able to contact you even if you choose not to enable this feature.
It may be that kcoop has disabled this feature for now. It may be something else entirely. I'm not going to worry about it now.
Goodnight, all
sm_landlord,
Now, if we were really going to get a few like-minded people together and do it right, then we'd be talking thousands of acres and our own private mini-FBO. The machine shop would come in handy for strapping 30's onto the 310 -- ever see "The Wild Geese"?
In which one?
//Lucifer - you have cause and effect reversed.//
I'm impressed that stocks rallied despite horrible CIT news. I wonder how long we'll stay churning between 880 and 960.
Sell! Sell! Run...
Cramer: The Worst Is Over
Mad Money: Cramer: The Worst Is Over - CNBC
HH,
Yeah, I've been thinking I should buy below 900, sell above 930, rinse, repeat.
kcoop, okay, I've got it now. You see, I'm really not a techie.
If you click on another member's profile and that member has enabled contact settings, you can communicate with that other member directly (by email ?) without viewing that other member's email address.
It just takes me a while longer than the average bear. Goodnight again.
Lucifer,
I'll wait until Lenny confirms, thank you.
Motivation.
Cramer, the kiss of doom.
OTOH, even Cramer has to be right some day.
TJ and The Bear,
Cramer is one of the best contrarian indicators.. if he says 'x' is true, then it is likely false.. if he says 'y' is good, run for cover.. if he says 'z' is a good investment, short it!
broward,
I think MBAs could be rehabilitated if they were made to read every dilbert cartoon ever published + quizzed on them..
that has really been the play for the past 8 months.
ung was nice today. wish i'd bought more at the low.
Cramer is one of the best contrarian indicators
Yeah, his picture is next to the encyclopedic entry for "contrarian indicators". TxChick57 over at HBB always loved to fade him.
"ever see "The Wild Geese"?"
Nope. Should I?
It might work best as a corp with many people involved.
Nytol, gotta get up in the AM
sm_landlord,
Check it out. Good Richard Burton movie about a bunch of English paras running around Africa.
The Wild Geese (1978)
House Wants Dealerships Reinstated
House Wants Dealerships Reinstated - WSJ.com
By COREY BOLES and JOSH MITCHELL
The U.S. House approved legislation Thursday to force General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC to reinstate as many as 3,200 dealers the car makers cut as part of their government-backed bankruptcy reorganizations. The measure, if it becomes law, would disrupt the Obama administration's efforts to revamp the U.S. car industry, and is an indication of the role Washington's political machine will play in how the companies are run. It's also a snub from Congressional Democrats to the White House, which strongly opposed the measure. This week, the White House stopped short of threatening a veto, but warned of the harm the bill would cause.
Potter actor admits drug charge
BBC NEWS | UK | England | London | Potter actor admits drug charge
Jamie Waylett plays Draco Malfoy's right-hand man in the Potter films A Harry Potter actor has admitted growing cannabis in his mother's north-west London home.
Jamie Waylett, 19, who plays bully Vincent Crabbe in the film series, pleaded guilty to growing 10 cannabis plants in tents at the Kilburn house. The court heard police found shots of the plants on Mr Waylett's camera after he was arrested for taking a picture of officers as he and a friend drove past.
typical slytherin behavior
typical slytherin behavior
But i have an excuse, HH.
My brother forced me to see Harry Potter 3 & 4 at the IMax.
Some things can't be fixed.
sm_landlord
thanks for the info on the SPAM problem... had no idea,
and all this time I thought all those kids in the internet cafes
were playing that Chinese warload game ;0
Lately on here seen a lot about concenrns over sudden dollar devaluation. Why not buy deep otm puts on say... TLT? roll those over every 3 months?
Lately on here seen a lot about concenrns over sudden dollar devaluation.
Are you worried?
I look forward to it!
The shrieks of terror, the panic, pretentious experts rushing about with their hair on fire.
Good times!
B of A was hired by Corus because they own Merrill Lynch. Together, B of A and Merrill have a huge number of institutional customers who might be interested in buying all or part of Corus. And, of course, they also have good rapport with the Treasury and the Fed, too. (or not)
I'm not worried about it; I'm just saying that I think my strategy will be to buy otm puts on TLT and roll those every 6 or 3 months. In addition to holding PM ETFs. My GLD hasn't gotten stopped out like just about all the other commodities I've been holding.
I just got confirmation that my 401(k) was liquidated yesterday. Screw the penalties; there's no reason to be in a retirement fund that limits my investment options and flexibility.
Anyone know anything about China and their African angle? Me and a friend got into a debate. Him saying China was set up to use Africa as their source for cheap labor. I was protesting that notion as I'd think the Chinese people would like to be employed; but he seemed to think China was going to follow America down the path we've gone 20 years. He went so far as to say the Chinese are smart in that they've got a number of "economically stimulating wars" ready to fight. He also believes America will be fighting "economically stimulating wars"... myself and the other guy I was with were questioning why he thought Iraq and Afghanistan were economically stimulating.
"police found shots of the plants on Mr Waylett's camera after he was arrested for taking a picture of officers as he and a friend drove past."
That is some pretty dubious probable cause. Is there some expectation of privacy, on a public road? Or is law enforcement somehow a protected class? Nice way to prevent any Rodney King SNAFUs. Are the tabloids under the same obligations?
I'm guessing this happened in England? I'm not sure what their privacy protections are... but I don't think they have many.
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- China’s government failed to sell as much debt as it planned for the third time in two weeks on speculation the central bank will push up money-market rates to prevent bubbles in stock and property prices.
The finance ministry sold 18.51 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) of the six-month bills, less than the 20 billion yuan on offer, Chinabond said in a statement on its Web site. The average winning yield was 1.6011 percent, higher than the 0.85 percent rate at the last sale of 182-day bills on June 19.
China Debt Auction Demand Falls Short for Third Time (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
Morning all.
YLSP - Having been to China a couple times, and having seen how poor the people are outside of the big cities, I have a very hard time buying the cheap labor angle. Cheap oil, cheap iron ore, cheap bauxite, etc. That seems like a much more likely reason.
YLSP (profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 2:26 am
Anyone know anything about China and their African angle? Me and a friend got into a debate. Him saying China was set up to use Africa as their source for cheap labor.
YLSP -- I believe the angle is resources vs. labor. China has a lot of unemployed people, so outsourcing is not yet on the agenda. But they have well-documented needs for resources (already extracted, all the better). And fungibility is on the way out. Locked-in decade-long contracts for resources are the new black.
"The Feds can just backstop this, either explicitly or without telling anyone.
They can suspend the capital requirements."
That'll work great until enough people swallow the green shoots meme and go to move the cash from savings into the brokerage and get an NSF.
The court heard police found shots of the plants on Mr Waylett's camera after he was arrested for taking a picture of officers as he and a friend drove past.
How Soviet.
Sounds like: "Section 44."
Feels like: Brazil (the movie).
Photographers criminalised as police 'abuse' anti-terror laws -
Home News, UK - The Independent
"I'm guessing this happened in England? I'm not sure what their privacy protections are... but I don't think they have many."
It saddens me that it seems to be popular perception that the only rights we in the USA have, are those spelled out in the Bill of Rights. The founders worried that by itemizing them we might be limited to just those, but I suspect that if they had not been spelled out, we would not have even those.
"The finance ministry sold 18.51 billion yuan ($2.7 billion) of the six-month bills, less than the 20 billion yuan on offer, Chinabond said in a statement on its Web site. The average winning yield was 1.6011 percent, higher than the 0.85 percent rate at the last sale of 182-day bills on June 19."
The idea of China issuing debt so that they can continue to feed our own debt addiction, seems quite bubbly and ponzi like, to me.
And while the police and "security" agencies are busy arresting and jailing people for growing, possessing and consuming Cannabis; bankers are destroying their countries and economies.
Who is doing more public harm?
Marketwatch:
Mattel Q2 sales down 19% to $898 million.
"It saddens me that it seems to be popular perception that the only rights we in the USA have, are those spelled out in the Bill of Rights."
Blackhalo, I think that we can't agree on many others. For instance, many of us who live in the city don't think very much of the "right to bear arms", especially hand guns and most especially, here in the city.
Do we have a right to privacy? I think so, but guys who sell information about my buying or banking habits probably don't agree. What rights to you think should be spelled out and why?
All technological civilizations asymptotically approach an outcome specified in a Philip K. Dick novel.
Government Sachs explained: Glenn Beck Explains The Federal Connection,Bear Stearns Corruption
Blackhalo, We have Constitutionally guaranteed rights but I don't believe TPTB respect that...
Information Awareness Office - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
USA PATRIOT Act - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
HomeGnome (homepage, profile) wrote on Fri, 7/17/2009 - 3:02 am
Who is doing more public harm?
Agreed, Mr. Gnome. At least in California, Cannabis dispensaries do charge state sales tax.
There is as far as I can tell no possible social compensation to be paid for being a rapacious banker.
(edit: add original comment)
"What rights to you think should be spelled out and why?"
I do not think it should have to be spelled out, as anything not explicitly granted to the government by the constitution, should be reserved to the people. If there is enough public support for additional powers, they can be granted via amendment. Not by way of PATRIOT or TARP type measures.
Who has really done more to destroy freedom in America, Al Q or USG?
Who has really done more to destroy freedom in America, Al Q or USG?
Well, I have always been very suspisious of the boy scouts
ok, that is interesting.
After all the bailing and flailing; we'll still own a toxic pool
AIG Swaps May Take Decades to Expire Leaving a ‘Toxic Pool’
AIG’s European Derivatives May Take Decades to Expire (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
ROFL! Family blog! Family Blog!
One of my regrets is not getting my Eagle badge.
IF I would have just done those last few requirements.
I really liked Boy Scouts.
We had a HUGE troop and you could go camping just about every weekend if you wanted to.
"Who has really done more to destroy freedom in America, Al Q or USG? "
Al Q was a convenient excuse to take power from the public and concentrate it into the hands of the monied few, in my opinion.
A lot of kids will be camping everyday in the coming months
Should we include CIT in the BFF poll today?
I think we should.
Need to turn the tinfoil hat over. Then we could have a swimming at the beach icon
Blackhalo, I understand your point. I think the TARP falls under the "common good" provision.
It's like a Gallagher concert, except the economy is the watermelon and Bernanke has a mallet.
(clicked twice and made two posts)
we noticed.
not that that is a bad thing
we noticed
sorry didn't mean to step on your line
The Giant Rat of Sumatra
Marketwatch:
General Electric second-quarter earnings drop 47%
Meanwhile in Sag Harbor, CNBC is reporting from a luxury yacht dock. All is well, and we get to see where Wall street spends the summers. The GE party yacht will be leaving soon.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Who will be CNBC's No. 1 anchor, Maria Bartiromo or Erin Burnett?
I'll guess Maria.
Roubini clarifies:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Economist Nouriel Roubini on Thursday refuted reports that he had improved his economic outlook, saying his comments at an investors conference earlier in the day were taken out of context. "I have said on numerous occasions that the recession would last roughly 24 months. Therefore, we are 19 months into that recession. If as I predicted the recession is over by year end, it will have lasted 24 months with a recovery only beginning in 2010," Roubini said in a statement.
BREAKING Marketwatch:
Bank of America Q2 EPS 33 cents vs 72 cents
Bank of America profit slips 5%
Anyone else have a bank doing server upgrades today that will last until tomorrow morning? Found the timing suspect...
How could BoA miss? Ken Lewis must be a total incompetent, or else maybe the acquisitive widdle rednecks are getting eaten by their newly acquired partners.
"Anyone else have a bank doing server upgrades today that will last until tomorrow morning? Found the timing suspect..."
It may have something to do with start the python hunt in the Everglades that begins today.
2nd BFF Poll (this can include CIT):
HomeGnome 5
Vonbek777 7
barbadkatte 6
Nervous Rex 1
gabyjan 6
Counterpointer 9
Chainsaw 5
Comrade Dazed and Amused 5
Plantagenet 3
YLSP 1
Mook 3
Any other takers?
or 
or 
Winner gets a free virtual
It is early, I haven't had my coffee yet so it is probably nothing, just usually the system maintenance is done on weekends. Caught me off guard.
HomeGnome I will take 7 again.
traderwalt: It may have something to do with start the python hunt in the Everglades that begins today.
Which while more interesting than a Fortran hunt in the Alps is probably not comparable to a LISP hunt inside route 128.
But my money is shooting bugs on the wide, open C.
BFF Poll
barbadkatte 6
BFF: 1
(size matters tour)
Ken added a bong?
That's pretty funny.
We need a hot fudge sundae icon for those of us brainwashed by the Southern Baptist and don't partake of alcohol etc...just kidding....
That's called a 'waterpipe', broward.
My green shoot story
BIL's wife's architecture firm in LA has moved back to 5 day weeks from 4 day weeks.
That's called a 'waterpipe', broward.
Perception is Reality.
We believe that our perception is almost complete, a few blind spots float around that we occasionally stumble upon.
The Reality is that our perception is tiny and our blind spots are enormous. There might be 1000 things visible but as a society, we agree that all of us will see only the same 10 objects. The Real Estate Crash is a perfect example. How could so few see it coming? Why did those few see it at all?
That's very perspicacious of you, Broward.
broward,
This is a good topic for discussion...my answer is we are paradoxical creatures...I think a lot of people saw this coming. Some felt it instinctively, it just seemed wrong. Some, had the business fundamentals to know it was wrong, and some had the macro-economical talent to see that the whole system was a house of cards. But as a whole, we are herd animals...we test our views on the masses...when all the cold water in the world bounces off the sheep, you just get wet, and start to question your own views... This is the whole one step forward, two steps back progression of human history. Many people knew, just couldn't believe what they knew in face of the herd mentality. My take at least.
Social Proof.
Social proof - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Just for comparison, the amount the US government lost in six months JUST FOR CIT was enough to launch 2-3 shuttle launches, fully burdened.
Broward, it seems that people like Roubini and Taleb saw it just fine.
To be recognized as early these people had not only to notice it but to talk about it, and to talk about it loudly enough to get over the energy of activation inherent in the mainstream press.
No small feat.
Rex,
The amount of money we waste each year on pet pork terrestrial based projects....factor that in....we should be on Mars damn it! None of our progress means anything if we can't get off this rock.
Affirmative, Vonbek777.
Never thought I'd see it get sucked into a financial black hole. An asteroid maybe, not economics.
How ignoble.
Pictionary time:
The Clue=
, 
The Answer= ?????
Two pigs and a poke?
Bong Hogs? a/k/a Bogarts!
Marketwatch:
BB&T second-quarter profit falls 72%
I'm sitting in my room, imagining all possible interactions of the objects. A letter from the IRS, my glass of juice, the swivel chair, socks on the floor. The interplay is infinite, for practical purposes. Predicting the interplay can be done but it's enormously complicated. I think of what I can perceive versus what I can't and it seems to me that my perception is a tiny sliver of what's possible.
So if I only see 1% of Reality (and potential Reality), how hard is it to get two people to see mostly the same Reality?
Truly, the mechanism of filtering must be highly conformist.
Yes, Taleb and Roubini say it coming but even they couldn't judge timing or specific events.
And even they could not alter the shared Reality to force others to see it.
I wish I could figure it out, see the discontinuities better.
But by definition, they are out of my field of sight.
I know they're there, though, i can deduce their existence.
Two pigs.....one bong.
Two pigs filter, one pipe grieve.
@broward
Through abstraction, we can, with a degree of error, predict outcomes from observing that interplay with the crude instruments that we have.
Taleb's logic is founded in observed cycles. When the pedulum swings to one extreme, given that it is still attached, logic says that it will make the return trip.
No more, no less.
Roubini and Taleb did talk but it made little difference.
People who understood mostly already understood from previous experience.
People who did not ignored them.
I wonder why The Great Reckoning changed my thinking & expectations but for most others it didn't.
There's a tradeoff in value.
Adhering to the social reality is a safe bet but there's net positives and negatives in the equation.
Following the herd is not always profitable.
I just can't figure out the perception part.
Roubini is now bound to the fate of the Recession meme, at least partly and now he's squirming, trying to have it both ways.
The upside without the downside.
Will Krugman suffer the same fate but to a lessor degree, because he's bound to the Recession meme to a lessor degree?
Will he struggle like Roubini?
Does he even know if he should?
I should go to sleep.
homegnome
i take 4
does bloomie get to play they seem to have 1
bbt ohdog ohdog!
changed my mind take 6 +/-2 fdic has had their little breather.
I put you down for 6 gabyjan.
Firefox Tracemonkey patch is out. Help->Check for Updates....
Slashdot | Firefox 3.5.1 Released
thanks hg
jax fdic should open in sept and does anyone know if they (fdic) had other branches they really should have them in each time zone. thats what im waiting for.
If Roubini/Taleb had made a difference, then they would have been proved wrong. They were proved right only because no one listened and acted
I'll take the over- 9 banks today.
Because I'm feeling DANGEROUS.
C
HG, I'll take 5. A couple of big fish with a few chasers.
MarketWatch:
Citigroup Q2 EPS 49 cents
Citigroup Q2 net income $4.3 bln
Citigroup Q2 revenue $30 bln
Is it just me or does C reporting $4.3 B in profits strain credibility?
I read the Philip K. Dick bio because someone mentioned it.
Many years ago, my brother and I walked into the Brown Bag restaurant. It was crowded with many people waiting at the register so I waited there and he walked off to the restroom. There was open space by the register which said, "Keep Clear", so I took two steps over into it and stood against the wall, waiting. I stared down at the floor and made myself invisible.
When he came back, his eyes passed over me. He stood in my original spot, searching the crowd for several seconds and then I took two steps back and tapped him on the shoulder. He jumped and turned around.
"Where did you come from?"
I told him I stepped into the Crawspace of Reality and he filtered me out because he was trained to.
"You're creepy sometimes", he said and we both laughed about it.
Cheaper Mortgages Trigger Lower FICO Scores for On-Time Payers
“My FICO score and ability to get credit is in danger,” said Stern, 64. The limit on his credit card, which he relies on for business purposes, was slashed to $500 from $15,000. “This program is helping with payments on one side, but then hurting your credit on the other, so you wind up behind the eight ball.”
FICO may study whether penalizing borrowers for loan workouts is still valid as more changes are completed under the Obama administration’s housing plan, Dornhelm said.
But the lender didn't tell me there would be consequences for anything I did!
is there any place that i find puts like those got those on them seems like there ought to be a lot of sell or maybe the judas goat computer will lead into some buys. know what i mean,i hope so cause im not sure i am asking the right question.
dont think this is a
not sure.
FAZ gabyjan. Short the entire sector...
C
thank you c
broward,
What is your view on duality? See I think our herd programming overlays both the conscious and unconscious self. This is important because people with the gift of sight..no matter what form it takes, have a connection with the unconscious self that many don't. If you look at the people who have kicked humanity down the road of progress...there are lots of non-conformists...these people are not moved by herd programming in the same ways, but make no mistake they still have the programming. It is another paradox that the most individual people among us are the most connected with the unconscious. The old yoda line, you have to unlearn what you have learned...I have mentioned before, I have a very platonic view of humanity. If you look at a finite being in touch with an infinite soul...see these concepts expressed as conscious and unconscious....take it a step further and see it as individual/group mind...then the herd programming makes sense...it is a firewall to maintain mental networks. Finite can't perceive the infinite, infinite can't see parts from a whole...goes back to the tree of knowledge motif...just because our eyes were open, and we can see like gods, doesn't mean we are gods...
If we are lucky, we can be Cassandra. See parts of the future, but that sight doesn't mean we get to change the future.
ffdic ,if you are still on
glad to see you back.
BFF poll
put me down for 5
Government Motors and Fiat all ready getting government management decisions. What could go wrong?
freep.com | | Detroit Free Press
Done.
Thanks for participating.
When you stop believing that the freakish amounts of wealth hoarded by the people at the very top are going to be shared with you through some sort of "financial ecosystem"... then you'll see the folly.
As long as you believe they don't intend to keep it all for themselves - or let YOU in to the party - you won't see the folly.
The whole system depends on people believing that they will be the special ones to be asked to stay at the party once the door shuts.
The door is shutting now. Do you still believe?
MarketWatch:
U.S. housing starts hit 582,000 in June, highest since November
There's a CORUS branch right at the end of my block.
Might have to grab a sixpack and go watch the FDIC show up.
Might even see some staff I recognize from when my bank got snuffed last year.
BFF Poll
I'll take three, all big.
Housing starts? That means we're going to be bringing more supply online?
Housing starts? That means we're going to be bringing more supply online?
I guess increased bulldozer production is not really a green shoot then.
BFF:
1 failure, a big one that dwarfs most of what we've seen this year.
Disempowered Paper Pusher wrote a profound iconic equation.
This is another:
Also,
TGIBFF!
I'll say 3 in today's poll.
And let me be the first to suggest: how about the winner[s] of these weekly polls each volunteer to contribute $10 to the tip jar (if and when CR and Ken ever get it back up and running)? I'm good for it if my number comes up.
BTW, Ken - are you still fielding suggestions for icons? In celebration of BFF, how's about a
icon? 
BFF 1
High incremental tax rates regulate greed--low rates don't trickle down anything potable. High rates force long term strategies.
The previous thread kicked me off and I can't get back.
:bong: