pigged == Bill's kind encouragement to the better commentaters contrasted with the steady negative truth drumbeat is such a fascinating sweet and sour contrast that like Chinese food, I just can't get enough! 500? try 2000
what is the "dramatic" event to which Bair is referring?
from previous thread.
most of the people running the health care debate know that the problem isn't really the insurance companies, but for political reasons they make good fall guys. The problem is health care itself. But you can't blame patient for over "consuming" health care. you can't blame the patient for being genetically pre-disposed to being ill. you can't vilify a cancer patient for wanting to live. and you can't undermine physicians by publicly stating that they're out for the money. And you're right, health care (along with education, defense spending, and housing) has outpaced inflation.
IMO, right now, the wonks have decided that health care is the vehicle to stimulate aggregate demand. yeah, it sucks because single payer or the public option basically puts a floor underneath already-inflated health care costs. but some see it as the only viable option. You can't re-inflate housing, only simply slow its decline. The consumer is over-leveraged financially, and a debt jubilee/cramdown is not politically feasible. So we make Americans health consumers, and finance it by passing highly progressive taxes.
i'm not saying i agree with it, or that it will work; it's just my analysis.
As long as 255 close this year the final toal doesn't matter.
Seriously, Banks don't really fail now do they? They are liquidated at best and the only people with money explicitly at risk lose anything. 700 fewer banks and 2/3 rds as many storefronts would be a sign of an economy ready to resume functioning without accounting gimmicks.
Last I checked, FDIC fund was well under $10 billion. I think that is why they haven't moved on Corus, GFG, etc. They don't have the money. Until they get a major infusion from the Treasury, I think they'll be sticking to tiny little banks in Wyoming.
Today, I visited a client whose office has a bird's eye view of the construction on the former World Trade Center site. So, I will tell you what I saw.
At first glance, it appears to be a beehive of construction. But when you look closer, you see that most of the work is in one corner of the site, where the Ground Zero Memorial and Museum are being built. Even now, half finished, the Memorial is quite moving, and the platform where pedestrians will walk already is in place.
But there are other strange things. In another corner of the site, there were probably a dozen pieces of earth moving and excavation equipment STILL DIGGING toward bedrock. The Freedom Tower appeared to be built barely above grade-level, and there wasn't much construction activity going on in any buildings. Strangest of all was the other office buildings affected by 9-11, just outside "the pit."
For example, eight years later, the Bankers Trust Tower still looms over the site like a 41-story black ghost. After extensive damage and a deadly fire, there is NOTHING going on in this building. It just sits, condemned.
We also looked out over another building nearby called 30 West Broadway. Looking down, you could see more than 100 hardhats on the top floor alone, maybe 15 stories up, with several huge welding torches going. When I asked how construction was going, my client said it was not a build but a tear-down that was going inch-by-inch, floor-by-floor, due to the need for very careful removal of asbestos and other toxins. This iseight years later and still 15 stories still to tear down, at a rate of probably not more than a floor per month.
If there was any life in the downtown office market, it's hard to imagine this.
I think in 3-4 years, the Memorial and Museum will open and become one of the biggest tourist attractions in America, with several million visitors per year. But to get there, you will have to take a long walk through a combination construction zone and office zombie zone. It will be eerie.
Most importantly, how does this affect the O/U for BFF? How many can the FDIC AFFORD to BFF? Are actual bank runs, with those showing up late, being SOL, in our future? Does the smart money move to TBTF?
What is wacko here as national policy is this: we robbed our future because Paulson and Bernanke wanted to bail out certain big banks. There are now claims this has been done. In fact, there is a good argument that the largesse overshot the mark and the clear evidence is profits.
The case that was made NEVER was that we were doing it to make those banks highly profitable - just that we 'must' save them.
Now it is time to bail out the people who bailed out the banks. It is payback time. Even if the bailed-out banks are 'entitled' to survive, they are not 'entitled' to profit.
It is time to confiscate profits and bail out the next in line with that cash. Main Street deserves it.
what is next?
p.s. There is a book on how Mr Putin went after free press in Russia. Tactics were pretty much the same unrelated to copy right and similar journalism guidelines - going after a business license, sources of financing, etc. Today, there are virtually no free press in there.
Ha, scroll back to previous comments...I had already put the 500 bank number in my blather. Makes no sense though at our current rate, and 24 Fridays. They'll have to start adding Saturday and sunday nights, and Sunday mornings.
wally...that's my point. We're well into eating the seedcorn, and still hungry.
Next, we group together ‘Depository Institutions’ (#10) and ‘Insurance Companies’ (#11).
Together they have been net sellers of US debt so far this fiscal year, selling a combined
total of $20 billion in US bonds. As a group they made no new net purchases last fiscal year,
and were sellers of debt as of the first quarter of this fiscal year. This should come as no
surprise, as these institutions have had to deleverage their balance sheets to survive the
financial crisis of 2008 and the devastating economic climate of 2009. The US Government
will not be able to raise new funds from them, so we can cross them off our list.
Next, we examine ‘State and Local Governments’ (#4). As you have probably already heard,
the majority of State governments are in serious financial trouble. The latest estimates show
income tax revenues down a whopping 26% from last year.6 The State of California, which
represents the 10th largest economy in the world, is currently on the verge of collapse from
economic stress. Seeing as how they were net sellers of US debt last year, we will assume,
given their difficulties, that they will be net sellers this year as well - so no help here.
Cash isn't a problem: they'll get the cash from Congress with ease. FDIC is waiting for someone to have authority to unwind BHCs and their non-bank subs.
Holy crap. That is exactly my view. Health care (and education) is the new bubble and the new engine of growth. Unfortunately, this crap works until it doesn't, and the aftermath of the bursting (a ruined health care and higher education system) is way worse than some abandoned sub-developments and run down strip malls. How long will this work? Beats me, maybe until long terms interest rates rise and governments (state, federal and local) have trouble making the interest payments.
My Dad works as a researcher in a lab in the Mass General complex in Boston. They are ALWAYS expanding, regardless of revenue or profitability. The government always steps in with more funding to make up the shortfall. Once again, works until it doesn't.
B2 - I like the idea... And I think a healthcare bubble might be much more productive compared to housing of the tech bubble... lots of people aging quickly....
rich - I'll check it out tomorrow.... Just got to NYC !
Apparently Daily Show host Jon Stewart isn't quite done with his Jim Cramer-bashing -- but in this case, he has a point. Dykstra filed for bankruptcy last week and then followed that up with a CNBC interview that made Sarah Palin's Katie Couric adventure look like the Gettysburg Address. Stewart dug up a clip of Cramer lavishing praise on the former New York Met as "one of the great ones" in the investment business.
Jon Stewart slams Cramer over Lenny Dykstra bankruptcy
Speaking of people out of their sphere of knowledge or what ever... I just saw Jimmy Johnson of the Dallas Cowboys hawking investment advice... The quote was "If your not an experienced investor like myself" I thought it was a hoot!
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:18 pm
The best laid plans of mice and men...
//Disaster capitalism in theory sounds more intelligent than it behaves in practice.//
Who needs planning when you can simply loot the highest profit opportunities, then move to the next one and let someone else deal with the mess you left behind. Strip mining works so well as the model for a society.
Bair probably did say 500 would fail. She watched Paulson et al strong arm the Congress with scarmongering, she is just trying out for the drama club too.
When Bunning spilled the beans, she had to have the spokesweenie deny. Can't cause a panic.
Doesn't mean they can't try. My Dad has been hearing the phrases "Healthcare is recession proof" and "Healthcare is the cornerstone of the new economy" for years now.
I had no idea Lenny was a stock huckster now. I grew up in NYC and was a Mets fan growing up. I remember the 1986 miracle Mets. Lenny, as I recall, always had a huge slug of chewing tobacco when he was at the plate.
You wanna talk experienced investor???? The CEO of Continental airlines (my beloved Continental...) is leaving to run a PE company.....may I be so indulged as to issue a big fat WTF???
I used to walk by Bankers' Trust Plaza every day, pre-9/11. God I loved looking up at the twin towers, especially on super-clear days. They were so massive.
The Hoisington paper you linked to has some good insight. However, they miss one very important point. The US treasury debt has much more foreign ownership than the Japanese debt. To a large extent, we are crowding out other countries other potential investments, and lowering their productivity growth.
Why would foreign investors do this? 1. Fear that other investments would lose value, whether through currency movements, or default. 2. Lack of investments which appear that they would have high returns even in optimistic scenarios. There are a lot of foreign countries awash in both cash and excess capacity. Many more get so much of their income from oil that they tend not to invest much in other forms of productive capacity. 3. They are in countries where they have major concerns about government failure or abrogation of property rights. Nothing like having a government
Don't ask stupid questions. Like "Who can afford a $500,000 postage stamp in Compton" or "Doesn't this debt have to be paid back." Just go with the flow. Like I said, this crap works until it doesn't.
it depends. First, the medical foundation for a lot of BigPharma is just as shaky as CDO, SIV, and SPVs. But the more important issue is where the bubble is being spent. If the money is used primarily for labor, then the bubble would have beneficial effects. However, the problem right now is that so much of health care is simply an extra layer for Wall Street. For example, Pfizer is basically a finance company that sells drugs that other companies have developed. And the lions share of medical technology goes to service IP. The way patents are bought and sold on Wall Street is very similar to an MBS; basically, it's just a claim to cash over a twenty year fixed period.
Profit and revenue surges belie deterioration in JPMorgan's loan portfolio and Goldman's asset management business.
Not to be all negative and whatnot, but one quarter doesn't make a recovery.
If the banks can take the population's wealth at will by dumping their bad assets on the public balance sheet and using the financial disconnect created by inflationary policy to redirect the flow of real wealth to Wall Street, then the Beauty of bank earnings is very deep indeed.
Recovery is here. It's just what's recovering that's reason for concern.
hey where's broward? here is the swine flu that "went away"...
WHO gives up counting swine flu cases
16. July 2009 20:17
In its latest briefing on the H1N1 influenza A pandemic (swine flu), the World Health Organisation (WHO) says the unprecedented speed of the spread of the virus means reporting requirements and the data needed for risk assessment, both within affected countries and at the global level, are changing.
The WHO says the spread of the pandemic, within affected countries and to new countries, is considered inevitable and unstoppable.
In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely and as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks, the WHO says the increasing number of cases in many countries with sustained community transmission is making it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for countries to try and confirm them through laboratory testing.
The WHO says the counting of individual cases is now no longer essential in such countries for monitoring either the level or nature of the risk posed by the pandemic virus or to guide implementation of the most appropriate response measures.
But the WHO says monitoring is still needed for unusual events, such as clusters of cases of severe or fatal pandemic infection, clusters of respiratory illness requiring hospitalization, or unexplained or unusual clinical patterns associated with serious or fatal cases. WHO gives up counting swine flu cases
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:22 pm
Who will pay for a service whose cost increases faster than inflation, but whose quality remains the same.
//My Dad has been hearing the phrases "Healthcare is recession proof" and "Healthcare is the cornerstone of the new economy" //
The only growth industry remaining here is unpayable debts. The rest will have to be invented and the people who would invent them must survive in the meantime.
hmmm, Im getting a signal from the Industrial Waste.......I think Blogo-sphere forced a yank down of Uncle Sam selling Bonds with a long line of folks up in there...a rift in the force.
S&P 900 is max pain tomorrow...imunna go ahead and post it...makes me think of the zero hedge blog .
and lowering their productivity growth ~some investor guy....
thanks for the reply, make sense but how could they convert USD to Yuan to build infrastructure... They only way I could see that is if they abandoned the Yuan all together and just used USDs at home...
rich,
Before the fire the demolition of the Bankers Trust building was moving right along - my office was across the street and it was moving so fast I was concerned.
When I saw them laying steel plates on top of the firehouse (10 truck on Liberty) I inquired and found out a piece of 6" diameter pipe had fallen off of the BT building during demolition and penetrated the roof of the firehouse - needless to say it didn't make me feel warm and fuzzy.
After the fire at the BT building visible signs of demolition stopped. I am told a new company is in charge of the project and they are focusing on the asbestos abatement for the entire building before moving forward with the demolition. The previous company had done it on a floor by floor basis - asbestos abatement and as soon as a floor was "clean" they'd demo it.
While you were over there did you see if the W hotel on Greenwich behind the BT building is still going up? My office moved back in March and I haven't been in the neighborhood to take a look lately.
Police say bombs have exploded at two hotels in Jakarta. The facade of the Ritz-Carlton hotel was blown off in one blast Friday morning. Another explosion hit the Marriott hotel, according to the Associated Press.
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger. A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.
"There is light at the end of the tunnel, there is a bottoming out of the U.S. and of the global economy. And the light at the end of the tunnel for once is not an incoming train," Roubini told investors at an event organized by the Chilean government in New York.
Sorry Doctor Doom but mp beat you too it.... or was it conjure?
WASHINGTON -- The pharmaceutical industry that President Barack Obama promised to "take on" and "hold accountable" for drug prices is winning most of what it wants in the health-care overhaul, following vigorous lobbying virtually from the moment Mr. Obama took office. The final contours of the legislation are far from settled, but the industry, led by a onetime powerful congressman, has already notched a string of victories. Legislation expected soon in the powerful Senate Finance Committee will leave out key cost-cutting steps as part of side deals reached with the industry and the White House, according to congressional aides and lobbyists familiar with the matter.
the bilderbergs, the trilateral comission, the illuminati, the free masons, the u.n., and the lizard people are all Goldman Sachs bitches now!!! Still waitng for my GS debit card. Thanks PHIL!!!!!!
a friend of mine suggested that BAC/C/WFC need to move their earnings announcement between GS/JPM cuz HAL2.0 might engineer a couple of down days just to stir things up... sharks smell blood.
Drug Industry Emerges as Early Winner in Health Bill: Overhaul Proposals Show Pharmaceutical Lobby's Success in Avoiding Cost-Cutting Steps Touted by Obama
The only way health care reform can work is if it cuts costs. If it turns into another special interest taxpayer clusterf**k, it's going to bankrupt the nation.
This has always been my major concern about health care "reform" -- just like finance, government involvement may simply mean that these industries now have the power of government at their disposal to ensure profitability regardless of actual merit or social contribution.
People should consider that maybe these government "takeovers" of industry are really industry takeovers of government.
btw, broward was asking about what unexpected blows could be dealt to this economy....a major public figure dies of a virus could be one (besides a dollar devaluation overnight)
"The only way health care reform can work is if it cuts costs. If it turns into another special interest taxpayer clusterf**k, it's going to bankrupt the nation."
Too late. The only politician willing to stand up and say that healthcare is not a "right" is Ron Paul.
The debate has pretty much been shaped.
It must be nice to have the government require everyone to buy your product.
I wish I had been smart enough to buy stock in seat belt companies back in the day...
Motorcycle helmets must have been quite a score as well.
btw, broward was asking about what unexpected blows could be dealt to this economy....a major public figure dies of a virus could be one (besides a dollar devaluation overnight)
Bigger disasters were nominally triggered by lesser events - see WWI.
That said, here is from tonight's news
Deadly Explosions Reported at Hotels in Indonesia JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) -- A police official says bombs at two luxury hotels in the Indonesian capital have killed four foreigners.
South Jakarta police Col. Firman Bundi says their bodies have been taken to a hospital.
The facade of the Ritz-Carlton hotel was blown off in one of the blasts Friday morning. Another explosion hit the neighboring Marriott hotel.
The word "bing" is an onomatopoeia, a word that imitates the sound it represents. Through focus groups Microsoft decided that the name Bing was memorable, short, easy to spell, and that it would function well as a URL around the world. The word would remind people of the sound made during "the moment of discovery and decision making."
In their search for the best name for the new search engine, Microsoft was assisted by branding consultancy Interbrand. After an extensive selection progress, Interbrand presented the name Bing as an option. The name even has its own tagline: "the sound of found!" Describing the path to Bing, Paola Norambuena, Senior Director, Head of Verbal Identity in New York said, “Finding a real word name today is a difficult charge, as most words —in the majority of key languages—have been taken. The process to get to a real word that would have connotation beyond simply search, and would speak to immediacy and the richness of the search results was a challenge."
It seems to be working. passed yahoo in a few months All the X chromosomes I know get a kick out of the bing home page with the clickable photo background.
so, just that I want to keep digging, look at southeast asia, china, India, Pakistan, japan, korea, indonesia, malaysia, singapore and there should be 2/3 ds of the worlds pop
Too late. The only politician willing to stand up and say that healthcare is not a "right" is Ron Paul. The debate has pretty much been shaped.
I try to be more diplomatic about the issue:
If a society can afford to provide healthcare to all its citizens in a way that doesn't put a substantial burden on the population as a whole or one specific group vs. another then perhaps that is the moral and just thing to do.
My problem with "universal healthcare" is that there's nothing moral, just or socially responsible about bankrupting a nation and/or making one group indentured to another.
I don't oppose health care reform so much as I oppose another costly and oppressive bureaucratic f--kup.
Jim Bunning is senile. Seriously, he is senile. That is not an exaggeration, he is senile. You are seriously discussing an extraordinary claim from a highly partisan, highly senile Senator.
Sure, but not any of the important ones.
and not Corus.
is that all?
crisis over
Bunning might be off his meds.
Wouldn't 500 banks failing be "something dramatic" happening?
CR,
The infamous 19 have already failed.. they exist because the PTB want them to exist, but all their business models has been shown to be worthless.
I heard the whisper number was 750. Should be good fior 200 on the dow tomorrow. Less competition and all.
jusat wnated to get one in early.
*bank failure is a shitty typesetter.
pigged == Bill's kind encouragement to the better commentaters contrasted with the steady negative truth drumbeat is such a fascinating sweet and sour contrast that like Chinese food, I just can't get enough! 500? try 2000
Pssst, CR
Bair lacky denies.
Bunning Says FDIC Warned Lawmakers of Banks at Risk (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
still down for a Double Digit Doozy for BFF
what is the "dramatic" event to which Bair is referring?
from previous thread.
most of the people running the health care debate know that the problem isn't really the insurance companies, but for political reasons they make good fall guys. The problem is health care itself. But you can't blame patient for over "consuming" health care. you can't blame the patient for being genetically pre-disposed to being ill. you can't vilify a cancer patient for wanting to live. and you can't undermine physicians by publicly stating that they're out for the money. And you're right, health care (along with education, defense spending, and housing) has outpaced inflation.
IMO, right now, the wonks have decided that health care is the vehicle to stimulate aggregate demand. yeah, it sucks because single payer or the public option basically puts a floor underneath already-inflated health care costs. but some see it as the only viable option. You can't re-inflate housing, only simply slow its decline. The consumer is over-leveraged financially, and a debt jubilee/cramdown is not politically feasible. So we make Americans health consumers, and finance it by passing highly progressive taxes.
i'm not saying i agree with it, or that it will work; it's just my analysis.
As long as 255 close this year the final toal doesn't matter.
Seriously, Banks don't really fail now do they? They are liquidated at best and the only people with money explicitly at risk lose anything. 700 fewer banks and 2/3 rds as many storefronts would be a sign of an economy ready to resume functioning without accounting gimmicks.
Last I checked, FDIC fund was well under $10 billion. I think that is why they haven't moved on Corus, GFG, etc. They don't have the money. Until they get a major infusion from the Treasury, I think they'll be sticking to tiny little banks in Wyoming.
Sorry just wanted to try it out....
Ken,
Thanks for the maintenance this is slick software....
OT
Today, I visited a client whose office has a bird's eye view of the construction on the former World Trade Center site. So, I will tell you what I saw.
At first glance, it appears to be a beehive of construction. But when you look closer, you see that most of the work is in one corner of the site, where the Ground Zero Memorial and Museum are being built. Even now, half finished, the Memorial is quite moving, and the platform where pedestrians will walk already is in place.
But there are other strange things. In another corner of the site, there were probably a dozen pieces of earth moving and excavation equipment STILL DIGGING toward bedrock. The Freedom Tower appeared to be built barely above grade-level, and there wasn't much construction activity going on in any buildings. Strangest of all was the other office buildings affected by 9-11, just outside "the pit."
For example, eight years later, the Bankers Trust Tower still looms over the site like a 41-story black ghost. After extensive damage and a deadly fire, there is NOTHING going on in this building. It just sits, condemned.
We also looked out over another building nearby called 30 West Broadway. Looking down, you could see more than 100 hardhats on the top floor alone, maybe 15 stories up, with several huge welding torches going. When I asked how construction was going, my client said it was not a build but a tear-down that was going inch-by-inch, floor-by-floor, due to the need for very careful removal of asbestos and other toxins. This iseight years later and still 15 stories still to tear down, at a rate of probably not more than a floor per month.
If there was any life in the downtown office market, it's hard to imagine this.
I think in 3-4 years, the Memorial and Museum will open and become one of the biggest tourist attractions in America, with several million visitors per year. But to get there, you will have to take a long walk through a combination construction zone and office zombie zone. It will be eerie.
Most importantly, how does this affect the O/U for BFF? How many can the FDIC AFFORD to BFF? Are actual bank runs, with those showing up late, being SOL, in our future? Does the smart money move to TBTF?
YouTube - Juan Enriquez: Tech evolution will eclipse the financial crisis
only 24 Fridays left in the rest of 2009, and I'm sure there's at least one holiday mixed in there....so....better get the Domino's coupons clipped.
Bair Which Project
Re last thread, as for luck:
Das Glueck ist eine leichte Dirne
By Heinrich Heine (1797-1856)
Translated from the German
Luck is loose, libidinous,
And does not like to stay with us;
She smoothes the hair back from your brow
Kisses quick, leaves anyhow
Aunt Misfortune, otherwise
Will bless your heart, does not despise;
She’s in no hurry and she sits
Beside your bed and knits, and knits
Pavel
April 4, 2004
What is wacko here as national policy is this: we robbed our future because Paulson and Bernanke wanted to bail out certain big banks. There are now claims this has been done. In fact, there is a good argument that the largesse overshot the mark and the clear evidence is profits.
The case that was made NEVER was that we were doing it to make those banks highly profitable - just that we 'must' save them.
Now it is time to bail out the people who bailed out the banks. It is payback time. Even if the bailed-out banks are 'entitled' to survive, they are not 'entitled' to profit.
It is time to confiscate profits and bail out the next in line with that cash. Main Street deserves it.
FTC might get a green light to go after bloggers.
FTC To Go After Bloggers That Make False Claims | NewsBusters.org
what is next?
p.s. There is a book on how Mr Putin went after free press in Russia. Tactics were pretty much the same unrelated to copy right and similar journalism guidelines - going after a business license, sources of financing, etc. Today, there are virtually no free press in there.
Ha, scroll back to previous comments...I had already put the 500 bank number in my blather. Makes no sense though at our current rate, and 24 Fridays. They'll have to start adding Saturday and sunday nights, and Sunday mornings.
wally...that's my point. We're well into eating the seedcorn, and still hungry.
500
Should be the title of a movie.
500 vs 300 million
The Sprott PDF you want to ignore lives Here
from the piece:
Next, we group together ‘Depository Institutions’ (#10) and ‘Insurance Companies’ (#11).
Together they have been net sellers of US debt so far this fiscal year, selling a combined
total of $20 billion in US bonds. As a group they made no new net purchases last fiscal year,
and were sellers of debt as of the first quarter of this fiscal year. This should come as no
surprise, as these institutions have had to deleverage their balance sheets to survive the
financial crisis of 2008 and the devastating economic climate of 2009. The US Government
will not be able to raise new funds from them, so we can cross them off our list.
Next, we examine ‘State and Local Governments’ (#4). As you have probably already heard,
the majority of State governments are in serious financial trouble. The latest estimates show
income tax revenues down a whopping 26% from last year.6 The State of California, which
represents the 10th largest economy in the world, is currently on the verge of collapse from
economic stress. Seeing as how they were net sellers of US debt last year, we will assume,
given their difficulties, that they will be net sellers this year as well - so no help here.
Good People
Jack Johnson smokes a
A little more on Inflation vs Deflation....
Warning PDF....
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q2NP.pdf
(John Mauldin and InvestorsInsight)
Anyone have any thoughts on it? (Its beyond me!
)
rich--bankers trust tower should be left as it is forever--blackened
bANK fAILURE - thanks for that... ROTFLOL ! ! !! (Off to look at the new array of aviators)
There can be only one.
C
rich: thanks for the on site anecdotal
Cash isn't a problem: they'll get the cash from Congress with ease. FDIC is waiting for someone to have authority to unwind BHCs and their non-bank subs.
I'm laying here like a dead pig in the sun waiting for km4 to eviscerate me.
Basel:
Holy crap. That is exactly my view. Health care (and education) is the new bubble and the new engine of growth. Unfortunately, this crap works until it doesn't, and the aftermath of the bursting (a ruined health care and higher education system) is way worse than some abandoned sub-developments and run down strip malls. How long will this work? Beats me, maybe until long terms interest rates rise and governments (state, federal and local) have trouble making the interest payments.
My Dad works as a researcher in a lab in the Mass General complex in Boston. They are ALWAYS expanding, regardless of revenue or profitability. The government always steps in with more funding to make up the shortfall. Once again, works until it doesn't.
also the sears tower is now to be known as the BIG WILLY per nbc nightly news
we will not monetize, thanks - I added the denial. I tried to be skeptical in the post - noting that this was Banning's recollection.
Seems like a day for a reported comment then a denial!
best wishes
I bought a Sheila Bair wind-up doll...
When you pull the string, it always says:
"Nobody has ever lost one cent in an FDIC insured bank account"
FDIC will act and on the next Monday emergency legislation will pass to fund them. Another rush to react and steal something else to boot.
JD: she had to memorize those words prior to being confirmed.
Nice idea, but that requires an expanding population with certain demographic ratios.
//Health care (and education) is the new bubble and the new engine of growth.//
B2 - I like the idea... And I think a healthcare bubble might be much more productive compared to housing of the tech bubble... lots of people aging quickly....
rich - I'll check it out tomorrow.... Just got to NYC !
CNBC take heed...
YouTube - Max Keiser takes offense to Goldman Sachs story (pt1 of 2)
Jon Stewart slams Cramer over Lenny Dykstra bankruptcy
Jon Stewart slams Cramer over Lenny Dykstra bankruptcy - BloggingStocks
Posted Jul 16th 2009 5:20PM by Zac Bissonnette
Apparently Daily Show host Jon Stewart isn't quite done with his Jim Cramer-bashing -- but in this case, he has a point. Dykstra filed for bankruptcy last week and then followed that up with a CNBC interview that made Sarah Palin's Katie Couric adventure look like the Gettysburg Address. Stewart dug up a clip of Cramer lavishing praise on the former New York Met as "one of the great ones" in the investment business.
volker the viking (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:14 pm
FDIC will act and on the next Monday emergency legislation will pass to fund them. Another rush to react and steal something else to boot.
Disaster capitalism in theory sounds more intelligent than it behaves in practice.
The best laid plans of mice and men...
//Disaster capitalism in theory sounds more intelligent than it behaves in practice.//
Jon Stewart slams Cramer over Lenny Dykstra bankruptcy
Speaking of people out of their sphere of knowledge or what ever... I just saw Jimmy Johnson of the Dallas Cowboys hawking investment advice... The quote was "If your not an experienced investor like myself" I thought it was a hoot!
"I'm laying here like a dead pig in the sun waiting for km4 to eviscerate me."
The Net is like the theater, where MacBeth always gets up again and enjoys a late supper with Banquo.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:18 pm
The best laid plans of mice and men...
//Disaster capitalism in theory sounds more intelligent than it behaves in practice.//
Who needs planning when you can simply loot the highest profit opportunities, then move to the next one and let someone else deal with the mess you left behind. Strip mining works so well as the model for a society.
Bair probably did say 500 would fail. She watched Paulson et al strong arm the Congress with scarmongering, she is just trying out for the drama club too.
When Bunning spilled the beans, she had to have the spokesweenie deny. Can't cause a panic.
OT: If someone knows a good asset protection attorney can you PM me. Thanks
Well.. we had "professionals" run retirement funds and companies... so I am not sure about the knowledge part..
//Speaking of people out of their sphere of knowledge or what ever.//
Lucifer:
Doesn't mean they can't try. My Dad has been hearing the phrases "Healthcare is recession proof" and "Healthcare is the cornerstone of the new economy" for years now.
I had no idea Lenny was a stock huckster now. I grew up in NYC and was a Mets fan growing up. I remember the 1986 miracle Mets. Lenny, as I recall, always had a huge slug of chewing tobacco when he was at the plate.
You wanna talk experienced investor???? The CEO of Continental airlines (my beloved Continental...) is leaving to run a PE company.....may I be so indulged as to issue a big fat WTF???
Continental Airline's Kellner to Step Down - WSJ.com
Thanks for the update on ground zero.
I used to walk by Bankers' Trust Plaza every day, pre-9/11. God I loved looking up at the twin towers, especially on super-clear days. They were so massive.
Who will pay for a service whose cost increases faster than inflation, but whose quality remains the same.
//My Dad has been hearing the phrases "Healthcare is recession proof" and "Healthcare is the cornerstone of the new economy" //
Did she say which banks, exactly?
Obviously, Bunning is no Schumer.
I know you want it, but you you should not CLICK
Industrial Waste has been spot on as of late.
For Misean if he ever reads these
LOL!
km4 is a phony
prolly somebody famous too, with more awards than good sense
I know who you are
Nades,
The Hoisington paper you linked to has some good insight. However, they miss one very important point. The US treasury debt has much more foreign ownership than the Japanese debt. To a large extent, we are crowding out other countries other potential investments, and lowering their productivity growth.
Why would foreign investors do this? 1. Fear that other investments would lose value, whether through currency movements, or default. 2. Lack of investments which appear that they would have high returns even in optimistic scenarios. There are a lot of foreign countries awash in both cash and excess capacity. Many more get so much of their income from oil that they tend not to invest much in other forms of productive capacity. 3. They are in countries where they have major concerns about government failure or abrogation of property rights. Nothing like having a government
Lucifer:
Don't ask stupid questions. Like "Who can afford a $500,000 postage stamp in Compton" or "Doesn't this debt have to be paid back." Just go with the flow. Like I said, this crap works until it doesn't.
a healthcare bubble might be much more productive
it depends. First, the medical foundation for a lot of BigPharma is just as shaky as CDO, SIV, and SPVs. But the more important issue is where the bubble is being spent. If the money is used primarily for labor, then the bubble would have beneficial effects. However, the problem right now is that so much of health care is simply an extra layer for Wall Street. For example, Pfizer is basically a finance company that sells drugs that other companies have developed. And the lions share of medical technology goes to service IP. The way patents are bought and sold on Wall Street is very similar to an MBS; basically, it's just a claim to cash over a twenty year fixed period.
Bank Earnings: Beauty Is Skin-Deep
Profit and revenue surges belie deterioration in JPMorgan's loan portfolio and Goldman's asset management business.
Not to be all negative and whatnot, but one quarter doesn't make a recovery.
If the banks can take the population's wealth at will by dumping their bad assets on the public balance sheet and using the financial disconnect created by inflationary policy to redirect the flow of real wealth to Wall Street, then the Beauty of bank earnings is very deep indeed.
Recovery is here. It's just what's recovering that's reason for concern.
hey where's broward? here is the swine flu that "went away"...
WHO gives up counting swine flu cases
16. July 2009 20:17
In its latest briefing on the H1N1 influenza A pandemic (swine flu), the World Health Organisation (WHO) says the unprecedented speed of the spread of the virus means reporting requirements and the data needed for risk assessment, both within affected countries and at the global level, are changing.
The WHO says the spread of the pandemic, within affected countries and to new countries, is considered inevitable and unstoppable.
In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely and as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks, the WHO says the increasing number of cases in many countries with sustained community transmission is making it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for countries to try and confirm them through laboratory testing.
The WHO says the counting of individual cases is now no longer essential in such countries for monitoring either the level or nature of the risk posed by the pandemic virus or to guide implementation of the most appropriate response measures.
But the WHO says monitoring is still needed for unusual events, such as clusters of cases of severe or fatal pandemic infection, clusters of respiratory illness requiring hospitalization, or unexplained or unusual clinical patterns associated with serious or fatal cases.
WHO gives up counting swine flu cases
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:22 pm
Who will pay for a service whose cost increases faster than inflation, but whose quality remains the same.
//My Dad has been hearing the phrases "Healthcare is recession proof" and "Healthcare is the cornerstone of the new economy" //
The only growth industry remaining here is unpayable debts. The rest will have to be invented and the people who would invent them must survive in the meantime.
everyone around here seems to be going into the restaurant business
Evolution..
//Like I said, this crap works until it doesn't.//
Hottest restauranty concept----Tijuana Flats--"Let us roll you a fat one"
hmmm, Im getting a
signal from the Industrial Waste.......I think Blogo-sphere forced a yank down of Uncle Sam selling Bonds with a long line of folks up in there...a rift in the force.
S&P 900 is max pain tomorrow...imunna go ahead and post it...makes me think of the zero hedge blog
.
and lowering their productivity growth ~some investor guy....
thanks for the reply, make sense but how could they convert USD to Yuan to build infrastructure... They only way I could see that is if they abandoned the Yuan all together and just used USDs at home...
................
B2 - thanks....
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:26 pm
Evolution..
//Like I said, this crap works until it doesn't.//
revolution? unfortunately revolutions are never bloodless, and tend to degrade the ideals they embody after they start to succeed.
energyecon,
Should you not stick to oildrum? People there like this stuff.. people here find it entertaining.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Evolution = Adapt or Perish
rich,
Before the fire the demolition of the Bankers Trust building was moving right along - my office was across the street and it was moving so fast I was concerned.
When I saw them laying steel plates on top of the firehouse (10 truck on Liberty) I inquired and found out a piece of 6" diameter pipe had fallen off of the BT building during demolition and penetrated the roof of the firehouse - needless to say it didn't make me feel warm and fuzzy.
After the fire at the BT building visible signs of demolition stopped. I am told a new company is in charge of the project and they are focusing on the asbestos abatement for the entire building before moving forward with the demolition. The previous company had done it on a floor by floor basis - asbestos abatement and as soon as a floor was "clean" they'd demo it.
While you were over there did you see if the W hotel on Greenwich behind the BT building is still going up? My office moved back in March and I haven't been in the neighborhood to take a look lately.
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:31 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Evolution = Adapt or Perish
Yeah.. except when they Adapt by ensuring we Perish.
speaking of explosions...from the WSJ ticker -
Police say bombs have exploded at two hotels in Jakarta. The facade of the Ritz-Carlton hotel was blown off in one blast Friday morning. Another explosion hit the Marriott hotel, according to the Associated Press.
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Nobody can control randomness.. that is the real problem for the PTB.
"Like I said, this crap works until it doesn't."
genau, +10
entropy?
GDD9000: Jakarta is a flashpoint.
Verleger Sees $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut (Update1)
Verleger Sees $20 Oil This Year on ‘Devastating’ Glut (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
By Grant Smith
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger. A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.
"we regret any miscommunication, but she did not say that [on the record]"
"There is light at the end of the tunnel, there is a bottoming out of the U.S. and of the global economy. And the light at the end of the tunnel for once is not an incoming train," Roubini told investors at an event organized by the Chilean government in New York.
Sorry Doctor Doom but mp beat you too it.... or was it conjure?
$20 a barrel? That's my projection from last Nov. Actually $23 a barrel, but let's not quibble.
2009=2002
2010=1996
Lucifer (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 8:34 pm
ResistanceIsFeudal,
Nobody can control randomness.. that is the real problem for the PTB.
Agreed. Luckily for the race as a whole. Never stops them from trying though.
Drug Industry Emerges as Early Winner in Health Bill: Overhaul Proposals Show Pharmaceutical Lobby's Success in Avoiding Cost-Cutting Steps Touted by Obama
Drug Makers Score Early Wins as Plan Takes Shape - WSJ.com
By ALICIA MUNDY and LAURA MECKLER
WASHINGTON -- The pharmaceutical industry that President Barack Obama promised to "take on" and "hold accountable" for drug prices is winning most of what it wants in the health-care overhaul, following vigorous lobbying virtually from the moment Mr. Obama took office. The final contours of the legislation are far from settled, but the industry, led by a onetime powerful congressman, has already notched a string of victories. Legislation expected soon in the powerful Senate Finance Committee will leave out key cost-cutting steps as part of side deals reached with the industry and the White House, according to congressional aides and lobbyists familiar with the matter.
Ever watched "pinky and the brain"
// Never stops them from trying though.//
the body snatchers have gotten to Roubini----Don't fall asleep!!
wind it down:
*its true that Elephants R larger than the Moon. I saw it on TV. Cocaine's a helluva Drug
Gawd I love this 'place'.
And km4 is pathetic.
Wouldn't it be interesting if Michael Jackson actually died from swine flu?
seeing the SoCal concentrate we should definitely get a tequila shot icon... Ken? I'll make it!
Scrooge - wins best post of the tread... hands down...
@nades
I'm sure CR appreciates the Off-off-off-OT
...I just read that a celebrity died of swine flu in England....was just wondering.
Long bond yanked down 2bps in 90 minutes in a/h.
C
the bilderbergs, the trilateral comission, the illuminati, the free masons, the u.n., and the lizard people are all Goldman Sachs bitches now!!! Still waitng for my GS debit card. Thanks PHIL!!!!!!
futures -38.00
a friend of mine suggested that BAC/C/WFC need to move their earnings announcement between GS/JPM cuz HAL2.0 might engineer a couple of down days just to stir things up... sharks smell blood.
Drug Industry Emerges as Early Winner in Health Bill: Overhaul Proposals Show Pharmaceutical Lobby's Success in Avoiding Cost-Cutting Steps Touted by Obama
The only way health care reform can work is if it cuts costs. If it turns into another special interest taxpayer clusterf**k, it's going to bankrupt the nation.
This has always been my major concern about health care "reform" -- just like finance, government involvement may simply mean that these industries now have the power of government at their disposal to ensure profitability regardless of actual merit or social contribution.
People should consider that maybe these government "takeovers" of industry are really industry takeovers of government.
UNG max pain tomorrow is 14....
holla btches.
All that is important is embodied in the British Open.
Watch for Woods to get a lean and hungry look tomorrow. He's on the cut line. This is where the wheat is separated from the chaff.
btw, broward was asking about what unexpected blows could be dealt to this economy....a major public figure dies of a virus could be one (besides a dollar devaluation overnight)
I raise my glass
to the Awful Truth
That you can't reveal to the ears of youth
except to say it isn't worth a damn
-- Leonard Cohen
In Amerika, used diesel motor oil competes with Nattygas..
hmmm....they're prolly buldozing the mudhuts as well.
ITS IN THE HOLE!!!
ok I promise Im done. for tonight, I called the BFF at +/- 5. a fort-comment ago.
oh did I mention the council on foreign relations created h1n1 and controls GS. Holler bitches , UNG crashes to $8 manana!
104 ignores 17
Nytol
love and marriage
love and marriage
go together
like a horse and carriage
----Sammy Cohen
ac
You knew they were going to get what they wanted.
Basel
This market will go lower as surely as the earth will revolve around the sun.
"The only way health care reform can work is if it cuts costs. If it turns into another special interest taxpayer clusterf**k, it's going to bankrupt the nation."
Too late. The only politician willing to stand up and say that healthcare is not a "right" is Ron Paul.
The debate has pretty much been shaped.
It must be nice to have the government require everyone to buy your product.
I wish I had been smart enough to buy stock in seat belt companies back in the day...
Motorcycle helmets must have been quite a score as well.
btw, broward was asking about what unexpected blows could be dealt to this economy....a major public figure dies of a virus could be one (besides a dollar devaluation overnight)
Bigger disasters were nominally triggered by lesser events - see WWI.
That said, here is from tonight's news
Deadly Explosions Reported at Hotels in Indonesia
JAKARTA, Indonesia (AP) -- A police official says bombs at two luxury hotels in the Indonesian capital have killed four foreigners.
South Jakarta police Col. Firman Bundi says their bodies have been taken to a hospital.
The facade of the Ritz-Carlton hotel was blown off in one of the blasts Friday morning. Another explosion hit the neighboring Marriott hotel.
stayed at the ritz carlton amelia island---the whole hotel was a facade
Indonesia is a flash point, 1/6 of the world pop
volker your fraction is too ambitious
It falls within my arc of dis-ease
The bombing in Jakarta is Muslim on Mormon violence.
volker - the calculator is not your friend. But it can be.
C
reflation--explain please
use bing viking---LOL
In 1999, I took my hands and circled a land mass. It included 25% of the dirt where 67% (m/l) of the world pop resided.
I remarked: Something's gotta give.
Boy howdy, did it ever.
@ C or anyone else interested in a musical interlude:
This YouTube - Harlem Shakes - Strictly Game is kind of tribal sounding - thought you may enjoy.
bing. what a stupid name. from wiki:
The word "bing" is an onomatopoeia, a word that imitates the sound it represents. Through focus groups Microsoft decided that the name Bing was memorable, short, easy to spell, and that it would function well as a URL around the world. The word would remind people of the sound made during "the moment of discovery and decision making."
In their search for the best name for the new search engine, Microsoft was assisted by branding consultancy Interbrand. After an extensive selection progress, Interbrand presented the name Bing as an option. The name even has its own tagline: "the sound of found!" Describing the path to Bing, Paola Norambuena, Senior Director, Head of Verbal Identity in New York said, “Finding a real word name today is a difficult charge, as most words —in the majority of key languages—have been taken. The process to get to a real word that would have connotation beyond simply search, and would speak to immediacy and the richness of the search results was a challenge."
Did it ever. Between the ears. Boy howdy.
C
latest famous quote from steve ballmer " Bing equals ka-ching!"
why do terrorists always have a grudge against 600 count threaded pillows and decent but overpriced hotel restaurant?
volker dumb ass
what do terrorists have against pillow top mattresses and and fresh gladiolas?
Basel
It seems to be working. passed yahoo in a few months All the X chromosomes I know get a kick out of the bing home page with the clickable photo background.
volker, props . been trying out the new miniature wine myself
so, just that I want to keep digging, look at southeast asia, china, India, Pakistan, japan, korea, indonesia, malaysia, singapore and there should be 2/3 ds of the worlds pop
or am I still a raving lunatic?
Too late. The only politician willing to stand up and say that healthcare is not a "right" is Ron Paul. The debate has pretty much been shaped.
I try to be more diplomatic about the issue:
If a society can afford to provide healthcare to all its citizens in a way that doesn't put a substantial burden on the population as a whole or one specific group vs. another then perhaps that is the moral and just thing to do.
My problem with "universal healthcare" is that there's nothing moral, just or socially responsible about bankrupting a nation and/or making one group indentured to another.
I don't oppose health care reform so much as I oppose another costly and oppressive bureaucratic f--kup.
ac, I will go one step further.
Healthcare that one is required by law to purchase is a violation of individual rights.
Jim Bunning is senile. Seriously, he is senile. That is not an exaggeration, he is senile. You are seriously discussing an extraordinary claim from a highly partisan, highly senile Senator.
"Nobody has ever lost one cent in an FDIC insured bank account"