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Who needs trade as long as our financial firms are posting record profits?
Only expats can export.
But Roubini will be on CNBC tomorrow.
Don't call it a comeback
No Furby under the tree this Christmas.
These figures were inflated by Pavel's books.
What percentage was ammunition?
We're going to have have trouble coming up with coal for the stockings - the Chinese bought it all...
still in for a DDD BFF
Nice. I would have gone with "GI Joe with the Kung-Fu Grip", but nice.
How can we financialize the port numbers to make them look better?
The stress tests came up no coal, all ponies.
I'm hoping for "Learn Mandarin" flash cards in my stocking.
These figures were inflated by Pavel's books.
That was funny. I hope he reads it.
We had a temp receptionist today. Today was the first day she worked since May. She has 2 kids at home. She told one of the staff that if she can't find steady work soon she is going to move back with parents in Roanoke.
May 2009 port traffic is higher than May 1492.
These graphs suggest, "Bounce over."
Doom sample: I am trying to figure out how the nation is going Balkanize itself....
History consistently shows that in times of societal change cults spring up to help people interpret events. America, even in the best of times, is a cult making machine. This was not the best of times.
Many of the major cults that formed during the period leading up to, and after the "Great Darkness" were still in flux during the time period that Gardener and Max first joined forces. Almost all of the newer ones were just beginning to solidify their dogma. Also, what area of the US you were in often determined what cult or religious belief system was the one championed by a majority of the people.
During the period many people were scared. They knew what was happening was a major change. They wanted more than social programs, and people telling them to buy guns an ammo. They wanted to know why it happened, where it was going, and what did it mean to them. Adding in the effects of climate change only made people more uneasy.
American Apocalypse
Nice Nova!
Been out of the econoloop for a while. I'll have to catch up with your blog....
These figures were inflated by Pavel's books.
Pavel is cooking the books? Is nothing sacred?
that may have been one of the best string of one-liners on this board in quite some time.
"These figures were inflated by Pavel's books."
priceless
Joanna,
I wrote one section with you and your friends in mind.
I'll be re-upping the forum soon, but more farm/gardening, less holy war.....
Times sure ain't getting any untougher, no matter how long I try to ignore the news.
pigged...
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
better recession billboards
"you can't handle the truth, so were calling the recession over"
"Just believe us were goldman sachs"
Recessions are like a sunburn, you'll be tan before you know it"
disclaimer-skin cancer kills..
"recessions are not like herpes, they eventually go away"
"Spending money is easy, thinking about recessions is hard, just spend baby"
"Jobs, who needs a stinking job when you have a credit card"
"Worried about the recession? Don't, if you call us right now we'll give you 2 recessions for the incredible low price of 19.99, Shipping and handling is extra"
Send check or money order or charge to Goldman Sachs, B.O. box 666 Geneva, switzerland...
Joanna,
How is academia doing? You work for a state funded university?
Recent statistics from the Port of New York and New Jersey showed flat container volumes in 2008 – for the first time in 15 years – but that isn’t stopping the port authority’s plans to invest $246m in the facilities in 2009 alone.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released its May statistics 25 June 2009. May passenger volume slipped (9.3%) globally, while freight fell (17.4%). The declines marked a modest improvement from April.
source: Transport and Project Finance
Notwithstanding the improvements reported in the broader May and June macroeconomic data, the Bureau of Transport Statistics (BTS) delivered its May report to remind us of the depths of the recession in the goods movement sector. On 09 July 2009, BTS released the May survey with a further (0.6%) sequential decline from April to May. The May Freight Index touched its lowest level since June 1997; the index is down (16.7%) from its historical peak in May 2006.
In more positive news, several US airports released May passenger statistics with evidence of continued thawing in travel demand. Despite suffering through the onset of the H1N1 virus outbreak, reports thus far suggest a continuation of the decelerating trend decline in both passenger and freight volumes. For example, Chicago Midway passenger volume fell 5.7% in April and May 2009 compared with an average decline of 16.5% during the first quarter 2009. Minneapolis-St. Paul, meanwhile, reported an average decline of 3.7% in the second quarter to May after reporting an average 7.4% decline during the first quarter. Perhaps more relevant for the LATAM sector, Miami International, too, has exhibited an improvement in the second quarter versus the first quarter with an average increase of 1.4% through May versus an average decline at 3.2%.
"...better recession billboards..."
that's pathetic. the country needs to grow up.
I know a guy who is helping to develop a new port facility in Long Beach.
He says their projections show traffic coming back within three years, which is about how long it will take them to get it done.
sm_landlord,
Is it a Chinese facility?
"I know a guy who is helping to develop a new port facility in Long Beach.
He says their projections show traffic coming back within three years, which is about how long it will take them to get it done."
let's hope he's using OPM.
" These figures were inflated by Pavel's books.
That was funny. I hope he reads it."
Gee, if the print run had been like the Left Behind series, maybe. They kept driving 18 wheelers up to the warehouse ramp.
Amazon.com: Animal Kingdom (9780976858041): Pavel Chichikov: Books
let's hope he's using OPM.
I notice a correlation between OPM and Hopium.
thank you ken you are great.
I was stationed at Long Beach Naval Base a million years ago. Now it handles a lot of Chinese trade. There is some irony in there somewhere
Coop dons the hat
"Tinfoil Hat tip, gabyjan "
Very nice.
the new port is being built with US Treasuries! The standard of excellence in the world!
Of course, the treasuries are being direct exchanged from the China Sovereign Wealth Fund.
"I was stationed at Long Beach Naval Base a million years ago. Now it handles a lot of Chinese trade. There is some irony in there somewhere"
How about the trade agreement signed in Vietnam between the US and Vietnam, the US signatory being President Bush, for irony? Eh? Doesn't everyone know how the miserable apes who should be wiped off the face of the earth often become our noble allies?
It's enough to make the angels lose their lunches.
I keep wondering why we dont follow the inventory to sales ratio here...it's quite indicative of what is happening with production and inventories, and thus shipping.
Weve had the lead, the consumer cliff dive, we had the follow, the major pullback in capex, and with it, the shipping cliffdive. So...then the stimuli come in, and prop the spending side, and then, of course, businesses no longer have to cut so rapidly, and some actually decide they overshot a bit, so we get some better news on orders, for a bit, and a little bounce in shipping. And so we get where we are now, the slowing of the rate of descent.
But, we are still on the downside of jobs, and thus the downside of consumer spending and the stimulus looks unlikely to compensate fully. And we all know the trend in the state budgets, and that is totally undercutting spending on many levels...and that is just starting. As is the construction fallout as the commercial pipeline empties. Ive already done it, but you can easily build a jobless recovery from recession by using commonsense and the BLS employment numbers by industry. There is no recovery in the cards in the second half. There are lots of losses built in. As CR has said, show me the drivers.....only hopium can support a few industries, most get whacked with certainty.
And so soon, we enter the next phase -- the grind. Despite inventory reduction, sales keep slowing, but at a less drastic rate...and inventory keeps getting cut. And capacity utilization makes this pretty clear. Still heading down. And with it, capex gets nicked further, and headcount.
Thus your bounce turns into your L shaped "recovery" -- we'll get the WSJ and other cheerleaders wooping up the slightly positive GDP number for q3, who knows, maybe q2. But it's nonsense.
And all this bloodletting just makes the banks that much more insolvent. And so we get more CITs and the credit crunch roils on. More headcount reduction. And we circle down the deflationary drain.
We will get out of this one day, but at a massive cost to the future.
Summers and Geithner wont make it onto a heroic "Team That Saved the World", Time mag cover.
We're eating our seedcorn.
(pig me now)
I'm sure no one misses the irony of the builder of the port projecting that it will all come good just as it's coming on-line......
Sounds like the current administration could use his talents...
Ciao
MS
ooh i did it. yay! thanks again ken
Yes, OPM is pronounced "hopium", with a british "Silent H" sort of pronunciation...
BTW, Here's some anecdotal color on real estate on the East side of San Francisco Bay Area.
Main employers are in San Jose (Silicon Valley), Oakland/Berkeley area, San Francisco.
Out in the exurbs and new suburbs (e.g. Brentwood), I'm hearing that people are bailing out and walking away. Those who have jobs are looking for places closer to work. Values are down sharply and the construction (hence purchase dates) are more recent, so less equity was there.
A bit closer in (e.g. Livermore), there's been a strong reduction in inventory on the market all year, and now there are bidding wars. This is on the lower end; jumbo is still mostly just sitting there.
Farther in (e.g. Pleasanton), median values are higher and inventory is still piled up since more of it is jumbo, with those rates still at high spreads relative to (taxpayer-subsidized?) Fannie/Fraudy rates. But inventory has stopped increasing and asking prices are down about 25% relative to the bubble peak, so there's signs of stabilization there as well.
I'm still on the fence about whether this is the bottom of Roubini's "U", or just the edge of the "continental shelf" before we do more "underwater cliff diving" down to the abyssal plains.
BTW, I really wish someone (CR, energyecon?) would chart up the weekly unemployment claims series, unadjusted, just like CR charts the LA/LongBeach port traffic. I think we can handle the raw truth and do the seasonal adjustments ourselves. I could do it in ordinary times, but right now I am strapped to the grindstone on both work and family fronts, and can't do it.
Green Shoots?
"Joanna,
How is academia doing? You work for a state funded university? "
Lots of budget woes, a few layoffs, but mostly gloom & doom about how we're going to pay for things once this year's federal help runs out.
Luckily my boss is proactive, and working whatever she can to keep my dept. on the employment-track. But it's going to get bloody this fall.
LB ports guy said a few days ago traffic down 30%, flat and didn't see anything in the near future, almost all containers leaving empty.
Since the end of 2008, the outstanding volume of commercial paper has fallen on average $1.8 billion/day undjusted ( or $2.8 billion/day seasonally adjusted)...
Outstandings released today, down again this last week...
Commercial Paper Outstanding
Port traffic better spike in Oct. Else Santa will be laid off
More hopium :
Cisco Moves Ahead With More Layoffs - WSJ.com
Cisco layoffs today.
and the sun/oracle merger gets approved...that should help CA real estate and the banks fo sho!
"I'm still on the fence about whether this is the bottom of Roubini's "U", or just the edge of the "continental shelf" before we do more "underwater cliff diving" down to the abyssal plains."
There's some great writing talent here. In fact, the whole country is filled with talented people of all sorts, whose talents aren't being used, challenged, nourished, cherished. That's maybe the saddest part of this episode.
Good to see you, energyecon. So we're subbing Fed paper for corporate paper, but the stimulus spending hasn't ramped up to the $50B/month level yet?
Deleverage the consumer.
Deleverage the corporate sector.
Deleverage the state/muni sector. (i.e. no more spending off bubble-leveraged tax returns)
THEN deleverage the Fed?
Second derivative not looking so good.
If it doesn't happen before October don't tell the kids...because October is toooo laaate as dear lawyerliz would say...
CP sinks, and Fed balance sheet grows. Lender of last resort?
Fed's Balance Sheet Back Above $2 Trillion - WSJ.com
"If it doesn't happen before October don't tell the kids...because October is toooo laaate as dear lawyerliz would say... "
Unless domestic products fill the shortfall?
Anyone remember US Savings Bonds? Conservation? Savings?
The conversion from citizen to consumer is completely tied up in the value we represent to the world financial system. Our ability to purchase and carry debt to fund globalization became the overriding mandate of what it meant to be an American. The rest of the world criticized and condemned the vast squandering of irreplaceable resources by a tiny majority of the worlds population but as long as balance sheets and quarterly earnings trumped common sense it was allowed to continue. Now that the debt load has hamstrung our ability to buy and the darkside of this growth is being given free reign to destroy the false prosperity gained. The upside for the capital holders is cheap labor pools have had infrastructure and industrialization bases developed to the point they can become autonomous and use their sovereign wealth funds to further cannibalize our country.
I believe every human being should be allowed food, clean water, a healthy environment, educational opportunities and a safe society in which to function. Globalization has not really created any of this for a large portion of the countries that have allegedly benefited. Consumerism and corporatism has destroyed humanity and a future we'd be proud to live in. End of screed.
Savings bonds allow Americans to invest in the future of our country was a once safe investment. The problem is if American consumers weren't purchasing sundry plastic crap then we were not staying true to our true function for the global community. This is why no official source is recommending savings, decreased consumption, or funding our own debt and then actively tracking the results and understanding t-bills, yields and the relationship to the strength of the dollar. Instead we depend on sovereign wealth funds to fund the US and through that the complicit understanding that our governments decisions will be guided by what will benefit their country's investment.
Examine the history of savings bonds sales and redemptions. I believe there is a story to be told and it is a revealing one.
Individual - Savings Bond Sales
no it's already too late....Sears selling Xmas crap already should tell you that.
Ciao
MS
Unless domestic products fill the shortfall?
What domestic products? I am being serious. I wish it were so. What do we make here that could be bought as a CHristmas present for a kid?
And the manufacturing bump is going to happen when?
Oh there will be plenty of domestic products, but it will be lots more hand crafted items methinks...though I suspect those prognosticating a stimulus check for Christmas will be in the mail are on to something...
Everyone who reads this blog has/has access, to a computer with an internet connection. You can register a domain name for $10/yr. For another $15/yr you can get a hosting account with an automatic Wordpress installer and enough room for hundreds of postings. WordPress blogging software is free and there are lots of free templates to make it look like you want.
It has never been easier or cheaper to reach a global audience with your writing. It might even be possible to make a little money from it
Great post, but the following should be:
"...a tiny minority..."
"Is it a Chinese facility?"
Nope, locally funded.
sun/oracle merger gets approved
unless i'm wrong, Justice Dept still hasn't signed off on the merger.
Port traffic better spike in Oct. Else Santa will be laid off
This year I invited Santa to Thanksgiving dinner.
He's the main course.
GDD9000: well said, well done.
"And so soon, we enter the next phase -- the grind."
I said it first, I'll say it again--the grind goes on.
All that is missing from your well penned work is the effect the follow on stage will have on regional banks. It is why I am following Regions so closely. It will be a casualty, sooner or later.
"I am being serious. I wish it were so. What do we make here that could be bought as a CHristmas present for a kid?"
A midget harley-davidson?
broward,
you must like fatty pork
eat an elve instead.
Basel....my ex works at Sun ....she says it is so. She called it "the day the music died"
nova,
Modern Warfare 2 for xbox 360. It's going to sell bazillions of units.
broward: smells like bacon, tastes like chicken
HSN had a Xmas show this week too--no shit, in mid July some smarmy asshole eating cookies and acting like they tasted good. Baked in May, sold in July, eaten next Xmas, how good could they possibly be?
@Pavel: Thanks -- From you, that is great praise.
If it's the bottom of the real estate "U", then my preferred "investment" choice would be deleveraging my mortgage. Prepaying the mortgage would provide a decent, guaranteed rate of return with no market-manipulation or other counterparty risks.
But if we're teetering on the edge of the continental shelf... I prefer to avoid putting any more equity at risk, wait until things bottom out again, take the hit to the credit rating and stay liquid. In FDIC we trust...
@Externalized "Savings bonds allow Americans to invest in the future of our country was a once safe investment." That was the 1940s solution. But in the 1970s we tried inflation. Right now, no one will trust in the integrity of the savings bonds. And it will be a few years yet before folks are willing to build the new America instead of trying to preserve the old system.
"Cisco layoffs today."
Ummm, that would be involuntary normal attrition. Cisco doesn't do layoffs.
t has never been easier or cheaper to reach a global audience with your writing. It might even be possible to make a little money from it
Absolutely false.
People have a finite attention span.
As the number of blogs increased, the average audience size declined.
As the number of facts increase, the awareness of the average datum shrinks until it's virtually invisible.
This is the same dichotomy of the Free Marketeers who believe that anyone can become rich when in point of fact, consumption is finite and therefore jealously guarded by the its current owners.
RATM,
I might buy that...
Signing off...
Do my eyes deceive me? Is the MSM suggesting [gasp] that unemployment is a leading indicator?
Rising unemployment accelerates foreclosure crisis
By ALAN ZIBEL and TAMMY WEBBER, Associated Press Writers Alan Zibel And Tammy Webber, Associated Press Writers – 2 hrs 29 mins ago
WASHINGTON – Relentlessly rising unemployment is triggering more home foreclosures, threatening the Obama administration's efforts to end the housing crisis and diminishing hopes the economy will rebound with vigor.
In past recessions, the housing industry helped get the economy back on track. Home builders ramped up production, expecting buyers to take advantage of lower prices and jump into the market. But not this time.
These days, homeowners who got fixed-rate prime mortgages because they had good credit can't make their payments because they're out of work. That means even more foreclosures and further declines in home values.
Yahoo! 404 - Page Not Found
volker - thanks...the regional bank issue is kind of in there, in the issues about commercial RE and the credit crunch. Its at least better that it is the small regionals than the big banks....if it was all them, there wouldnt possibly be enough hopium to convince everyone the big banks are solvent.
I cant yet get my head around the effects of it all though. At a client meeting this week, one woman brought up the confidence effect of having lots of folks watch their banks disappear this year. I filled her in on how the info is released on friday nights, and made to disappear. She had a giggle.
Looks like we're still buying too much crap from china. Oddly, my last set of purchases at a discount store (2 tshirts, a 6 pack of socks, some plastic storage containers and a water bottle) were all U.S. made. I was shocked. Apparently we are capable of making cheap crap here in the U.S. too.
"I am being serious."
I was not, so much. Although, if I were hopeful, it would be that the USA's addiction for Chinese made bits of plastic would subside for something homemade. What that might be, I have no idea, as it seems to me that very little of what could be made here, can be made for less elsewhere.
Of course if housing and health care costs are reduced...
It is why I am following Regions so closely.
Regions still has a lot of goodwill it needs to work off from AmSouth. Somehow acquisitions at the peak haven't worked well for anyone.
GDD9000: I know Sun shareholders just recently approved the merger, but the DOJ still is looking at the anti-competitive aspects and hasn't given its OK. On the other hand, DOJ ratification isn't required and doesn't carry any weight internationally, e.g. GE-Honeywell looked like a done deal until the EU killed it.
anyone post that max keiser video from Zero hedge..
Max Keiser: "Goldman Sachs Are Scum" | zero hedge
goldman sachs is scum....
great stuff
"I prefer to avoid putting any more equity at risk....In FDIC we trust..."
We've been going over this for months now, what to do.
Thx Basel...we speak of slightly different things. Maybe I can get her hopes up of a scuttling.
Basel Too: Regions wrote off their blue sky in the crunch that drove them under a nickel, according to my branch manager who has since left the firm. The local President won't return my calls since he knows my questions. His AA took them down when I left a message a month or so ago. Stonewall and bullshit.
GDD9000 writes: "Its at least better that it is the small regionals than the big banks...."
The regionals I reference are not so small. Many are a part of the gang of nineteen that didn't get an okay from the stress 'test'.
"Stonewall and bullshit."
We know a national park service horse named Stonewall. He's a gelding.
suntrust is another ugly one. lotsa hotlanta CRE exposure
gdd9000: probably nothing major.
Justice Department Extends Probe of Oracle-Sun Deal - WSJ.com
A tiny, targeted niche audience can be fun/profitable.
There are still many underserved niches and it requires only moderate writing/technical skills to reach them.
I could have never reached all the people I do if the internet were not available.
Anyone see the new episode of Leverage? A guilty pleasure for me, but they sure took some shots at bankers. I hope it is a trend.
TNT - Leverage: Home
V-t-V : part of the big 19....what % of the total capitalization of those 19 would the regionals make up? I keep sloughing this off as a major risk, but when the clients asked this week, what should we worry about, I basically told them further shocks in the zombie banking system. But I didnt focus on the regionals so much, because we were talking about the 300-500 likely failures, most of which are small. Which are the big fatties?
Glad to be of service. My advice is worth what you pay for it.
Just check the list. I sell advertising so I am otherwise occupied. Would look forward to seeing what you discover.
Further "shocks in the banking system" will be buffered by the Feds.
Insanity is watching the same thing over and over but expecting a different outcome.
buffered by the Fed....there you go again, eating the seedcorn.
There are still many underserved niches and it requires only moderate writing/technical skills to reach them
There are still many milions of lottery tickets and it only requires a modest $ to reach them.
@energyecon,
Several years ago -- before I was transformed in a tragic science experiment gone wrong into Coinz -- I held many US I-bonds.
Back when they actually issued you a paper bond.
However, after the "accident", I took them to a bank, cashed out, and bought....well you know what I bought.
Comrade Coinz: Now you need only hope your head will grow to fit the hat.
What could be bought made here for a Christmas poresent for a young boy? Red Wing boots.
MadeInUSA - Home- Recycling American Dollars Through Patriotic Spending
go nutz
need more?
Let me google that for you
? for you, Broward. What's the key to success with a blog such as CR?
I admit there are way more bloggers than blog readers, so what's your theory on how the blog got known?
Just curious, and if you're not inclined to reply no worries!
C
How about providing content?
Interesting, relevant...content.
Having Kcoop man the comments doesn't hurt either.
blackhalo I've seen some amazing anti banker episodes of bonanza and gunsmoke.
@RD
I sure hope not.
Okay, so I bit the bullet and charted up the Non-Seasonally-Adjusted weekly claims data myself.
Investing for Sustainable Gains » Blog Archive » No unemployment claims relief yet…
I haven't put any work into the blog yet (and may never do so), but the chart I hope is "interesting, relevant... content"..
Off to an event here...
OT:
I just noticed Green Shoots has its own Wikipedia page.
Green shoots - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
@RD - Ick.
"I just noticed Green Shoots has its own Wikipedia page."
The final nail in the coffin.
Sprott PDF
*the solution is the problem.
Red eyed and Blue I got Yu.
Wilco
This should give them comfort.
"Inflation is in check"
"Subprime is contained"
Bernanke Is Said to Plan Assuring China at Summit (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will brief Chinese officials at a summit this month about how the U.S. plans to keep inflation in check over the next few years, according to people advised on the plans.
This cannot be true...This Is Controlled CHAOS to anger us......
The Puppet Masters create "disorder" so the people will demand "order". The price of "order" always entails a handing over of control and loss of freedom on the part of the citizenry. Out of "chaos" comes "order" - THEIR order - their new WORLD order.
The trick of creating chaos and then seizing power under the pretense of putting things back in order is a tried and true method of deception and manipulation. It's the meaning behind the Latin motto: ORDO AB CHAO meaning ORDER OUT OF CHAOS.
This is the Hegelian Dialectic in Action.!!!! ........THESIS -- ANTI-THESIS -- SYN-THESIS.
Or, PROBLEM -- REACTION -- SOLUTION ...in that firstly you create the problem; then secondly you fan the flames to get a reaction; then thirdly (like Johnny-on-the-spot) you provide a solution. The solution is what you were wanting to achieve in the first place, but wouldn't have been able to achieve under normal circumstances.
What you are seeing now is the __R E A C T I O N __ phase!!!!
They are trying to fan the flames of discord with these INSANE decisions.
You are educated people....try not to be TOO SHOCKED.....
Again......All By Design......
"The real rulers in Washington are invisible and exercise power from behind the scenes."
Justice Felix Frankfurter (1882-1965) U.S. Supreme Court Justice
What's the key to success with a blog such as CR?
Same as Bill Gates.
Luck.
Microsoft would have happened anyway.
Buy a ticket and hope.
shill, I want big brother wally to give comforting solutions. --Love, the beaver.
There were a few articles about Mexico building a port just south of the boarder. The idea looked like hooking up with Mexican truckers and rail bypassing west coast ports. Wonder if it is still going ahead.
luck= tanta+constant posting, a listening ear, a godlike composure, willingness to improve, need I go on? Bill is a hero.
"What Makes Money Valuable?
In the United States neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities. Intrinsically, a dollar bill is just a piece of paper, deposits merely book entries. Coins do have some intrinsic value as metal, but generally far less than their face value.
What, then, makes these instruments - checks, paper money, and coins - acceptable at face value in payment of all debts and for other monetary uses? Mainly, it is the confidence people have that they will be able to exchange such money for other financial assets and for real goods and services whenever they choose to do so."
-Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Uh oh.
http://www.rayservers.com/images/ModernMoneyMechanics.pdf
Luck.
sense of humor, generosity to other bloggers(mish) etc.
Being a good cheater helps sometimes.
I'd say that more than 50% of the people I've met with money were either lucky or good cheaters.
Tanta was a huge pull here. CR is low key and sticks to the facts. And the commentariat beats all. Format is great. Timely subject matter.
I wouldn't say luck. I would say a lot of good things coming together.
Thanks, CR. It's fun.
Edit: Oh, and I forgot humor. Incredibly funny wit around here.
A few more drinks and we'll all get mushy.
prophetic foresight, deep intellect, and a hot body!----thanks CR!!
When words become unclear, I shall focus with photographs. When images become inadequate, I shall be content with silence.
Ansel Adams
A successful conversation.
C
Jas
Broward, while your words ring sadly true, there are exceptions. And CR is one of them.
I would say a lot of good things coming together.
We hired an older guy as a programmer even though he'd been a CIO / director at other companies. He liked our enthusiasm and teamwork and then he said,
"Enjoy it now. It never lasts".
I've seen CR-type event several times.
Enjoy it now.
It never lasts.
yes ---the commentariat is like being trapped with the history boys and their professors----pure heaven
It never lasts.
Does that matter?
L.A. Woman
YouTube - The Doors - L.A. Woman
one area that CR (the blog) is definitely weak in the economics/finance of health care, which is "only" 1/6 of our economy now.
Nothing lasts
not even the radiance of the stars
that dims nothing
only illuminates our mortality
amongst the whispers
of the eye of god
"It never lasts."
I thought cooking was supposed to last.
It never lasts.
Does that matter?
Not if you're aware of it.
If you're not, it can be a nasty surprise.
BTW, you made a good choice with Drupal.
it looks like Wordpress is done.
Early call still but I think it's the percentage bet.
.
http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=drupal_vs_wordpress
.
My first project was enormously successful.
I thought it was a function of hard work but I could never recreate it regardless of effort.
Likewise, I was worth almost $500K in my second year at my first startup.
I could never recreate it, either.
Luck.
I see your hair is burnin
Hills are filled with fire
If they say I never loved you
You know they are a liar
Drivin down your freeways
Midnight alleys roam
Cops in cars
the topless bars
Never saw a woman...
So alone, so alone
great stuff !
basel too, one day health care will be everything and we shall all nurse each other in a grapes of wrath daisy chain.
I'm out in Vegas this week and there is alot of semi trucks sitting idle in parking lot . The front desk(Hilton ) told me booking where way off . At the hoover dam today the tour guide said revenues where off several thousand dollars a day this week . There alot of people at the free shows ( Treasury Island ect )and very few people with shopping bags . The construction sites have very few workers on them .Just my 2 cents
CR has stumbled into a set of circumstances that will disprove broward's assertion that it never lasts.
Pavel, I'm guessing that in 25 years your electric car will be the Osama XLT from Al Queda Motors.
Basel Too (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 5:34 pm
one area that CR (the blog) is definitely weak in the economics/finance of health care, which is "only" 1/6 of our economy now.
I disagree. A foray in health care risks "Jack of all trades, master of none." CR is great enjoying recognized expertise within defined fields. The level of self control exhibited in not venturing out with global warming or politics, etc. is rare and laudable.
agree volker, and should he pass, may a modern day software eliza secretly take his place.
the american consumer may be over-leveraged financially, but not medically.
provide an insurance policy that doesn't discriminate for any reason, and doesn't penalize for over-consumption, and the government won't need another stimpack.
If he doesn't tinker with this, and ignores some of the more shrill (and stoopid) he has a shot at being the Will Rogers of the blogasphere.
Gee, my experience has been when you start talking about a relationship then it is dead or dying
dupe
Pavel, I'm guessing that in 25 years your electric car will be the Osama XLT from Al Queda Motors.
Dickylee, in 25 years, if I make it that long, I'll be well up in my 90s. Was that an electric wheelchair you were thinking of?
Actually, I would say that as of now the universal caliphate is going nowhere.
Schumpeter called it the flashpoint I think. This is already bigger than Bill, let Bill be Bill.
@the great reflation (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 5:40 pm
agree volker, and should he pass, may a modern day software eliza secretly take his place.
You forgot to add that can actually pass the Turing test with flying colors;)
Basel Too:
Lots of organizations had health care programs like that. Look at the auto companies. How'd that work out for Generous Motors?
thanks, nova.
aside from the horrific imagery (re the grapes of wrath) I think there is a lot of latent talent here on the health care front. We are just saving it for when it the time comes to let loose. It's a major issue, but we have bigger fish to fry now. The good news, is that the turning tide of sentiment in the mediamaroonville, and that some of us here have been swayed, means we can switch from the "this ship be sinkin!" mode on hoocoodanode, to a more spirited debate about the shape of the (jobless? hehe) recovery.
neal stephenson?
Pavel, Harley just layed off 1000 employees and furloughed some ass'y lines for up to 14 weeks. So no 883's for Christmas.
nuke, that's my point.
Turing.... Bzzztt. Frzz. Dada. dada. dada.
C
If Chinese-made Xmas stuff is in short supply come November, what's that going to do to the prices? Jimmy and Becky can't be disappointed, and there will still be a lot of people who are employed and not underwater.
Could be a windfall for retailers who will actually make a profit on the sale (and don't have to depend on usurous credit rates). Of course, that doesn't mean the usurous credit rates will disappear.
I'd enjoy debating my friend volker the viking on this subject matter of Eliza and Schumpeter
No contest - I'd kick his ass six ways to Sunday;)
there's a big ass stimulus coming, straight to the consumer, 1200 - 2000 per consumer
for Xmas, for the chilrden.
"Pavel, Harley just layed off 1000 employees and furloughed some ass'y lines for up to 14 weeks. So no 883's for Christmas."
Dickylee, odd you should say that, because the past two days I've been passing by a silver Harley parked a few blocks from my house.
We look forward to Rolling Thunder every year here in DC, and I hope to see it next spring, too.
Rapes of Graft
km4: if you're waiting for me then you're backing up
BTW, you made a good choice with Drupal.
You're talking to someone who's knee deep in the forms API at the moment .
But all things considered, I agree.
Luck.
While I have had similar experience, I think you're undervaluing quality.
"Turing.... Bzzztt. Frzz. Dada. dada. dada.
C"
We seldom know who anybody is on the Net. psychodave, for instance.
Basel:
Health care is the fastest growing DoD expense. Since 2000, Tricare spending (the military's health program for servicemen and dependents) grew 260%. This excludes the cost of treating, rehabilitating wounded soldiers. The brass is very concerned. All attempts at cost controls are shot down by Congress. In the end, the US military may be defeated not by Al Qeada, but by porcine military wives and their brats (sorry, I've had some bad experiences with the "wives club").
@ volker the viking (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 5:47 pm
waiting for you....no you come across as a coward and the type of person who is all hat no cattle
Outsider (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 7:31 pm
Tanta was a huge pull here. CR is low key and sticks to the facts. And the commentariat beats all. Format is great. Timely subject matter.
I wouldn't say luck. I would say a lot of good things coming together.
A lot of that is luck. In the meatspace/real-world, geographical clustering occurs which tends to produce cosmopolitan outcroppings of creativity, emerging from the amalgamation of the people who find one another... a similar but slightly less luck-based clustering of interests and intellectual peers tends to occur of its own accord in academia; in online communities, affinities exist which are less by accident, fate, and chance but luck still reigns supreme and nothing lasts -- Everything2, slashdot, digg, reddit --- the forces of commerciality, conformity and groupthink eventually overtake the creative output, combined with the effect of popularity lowering the bar of commentary (think youtube or most MSM reader comments) and "inbreeding" sorts of effects that overcome a lot of top commentators in ranking games played on community sites, and purists do their part to resist change and new ideas... so far CR has avoided most of this with pretty minimal central control. It's pretty much a competition between feedback loops IMHO, not unlike the real world
Nuke,
Because you weren't a ringknocker?
"All attempts at cost controls are shot down by Congress."
I've noticed how keen they are to defend our freedom of choice.
when broward said luck I think he was just stirring the pot. Good Job!
Tanta was, to me, a sometimes witty, but often tough read. That woman hurt my brain.
km4: right, you got me
you got the volker
got anything else?
On blogs and software and such.
One thing an old mentor taught me was that continuous reinvention is vital to keeping the customers coming back.
Especially if you want high-end customers.
In the most excellent book "Ten Lost Years", one of the short oral history stories was a woman telling the tale of White Gift Christmas, where church members brought a gift wrapped in white paper to give to the less fortunate...
She was responsible for opening them up and she said that by the mid 1930's, quite a few contained a block of wood or a rock or a brick. People were stony broke and here was the less fortunate, right in the church~
Nova.
Any way you can place your stories online in pdf form for offline reading? I started reading one of them then he met Gardener and I realized there was actually another story you had written based on the comments. So I went to them in sequential order; it was just hard clicking through all night instead of doing it via pdf. I just put everything on dTA actually from your site... probably a better idea.
Anyway; obviously the story sucked me in, kept me up and hurt my productivity the following day...
Nova:
No. Wives clubs tend to be dominated by the wives of higher ranking officers, who think that because you work for their husband they outrank your wife. They don't understand that hubby's rank does not confer them with special status. Very irritating. They also tend to be catty, gossipy busy-bodies. My wife and I never wanted anything to do with them. Also, nothing is more annoying than seeing obese women at the exchange grazing the shelves like cattle, shod in tacky flip-flops, wearing a "Navy Wife: Hardest Job in the Navy TShirt." Actually, I am pretty sure that honor goes to the Seals or EOD divers. But I digress.
That woman hurt my brain.
That's what scroll buttons are for.
They are graduated by IQ level. The highest IQs scroll the slowest, the lowest IQs scroll the fastest.
broward, do a data study on scrolling vs. IQ.
YLSP,
The archives have been condensed into a group of chapters. The American Apocalypse first batch is pdf and is 141 pages I think. I could PDF the rest for you. Send me an email and thanks.
And persistence.
Nuke,
Sounds like fun. Lucky for me I was an e-nothing screw-up.
Bill's kind encouragement to the better commentaters contasted with the steady negative truth drumbeat is such a fascinating sweet and sour contrast that like Chinese food, I just can't get enough!
broward (homepage, profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 5:27 pm
reply ignore user
Being a good cheater helps sometimes.
I'd say that more than 50% of the people I've met with money were either lucky or good cheaters.
I read the book "Millionaire next Door" a few years ago and what struck was important many people being interviewed felt it was that they had put themselves into a position to act when a lucky chance came their way.
That, is a killer chart CR! Nice work!!
Second derivative not looking so good.
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