NAHB: Builder Confidence

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The NAHB website has crashed ... nice timing.

best to all

Those builders still in business are slightly more confident than in Jan. Of course, those who are no longer builders weren't in the survey any more.

Bailout or no bailout mood changes month to month

The Website crashed from all the euphoria!

Look on that list "United Scholars For The Fed" on Zero Hedge

there is a" Ben Dover" And a "Benjamin Dover".

WTF? are these real people

Zero Hedge: "United Scholars For The Fed" - Petition Signatories Update

This is still very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression.

CR you used the "D" word!

You would think that the side effects and crash from all of their hopium huffing would have kicked in a little later.

They must have developed one heck of a tolerance or something.

This is still very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression.

Soon they can dope themselves with free government drugs.

Michigan's unemployment rate hit 15.2% in June. Ouch!

freep.com | | Detroit Free Press

No surprise Lloyd Balankfein is on the list of Supporters of the FED status Quo.

We are borrowing the stimulus money. More stimulus is equivalent to throwing gasoline on the fire. We can't possible pay the debt back... legitimately. The government will use inflation to cheapen the debt. Unfortunately, this will hurt the poor, the working class, and the elderly on fixed income. Reckless government spending is not an American value.

hat tip to: Interesting Finance & Economic articles 

there is no econ recovery. period.

New homes built in my area (Toll Management's bread and butter locale) is still going for average of 800K to 2 mil. (Median 1 million or so) Even the lowest end (Crap Box/Condo) is upper 500K (more like 600K after all costs)

Average household income is higher than national; at 70K (yay!)

Apparently, there's someone with better ability to buy these new houses in these last month or so (who? Martians?). That must be how these builders are more confident.

Personally, I'm resigned to be priced out forever; which apparently isn't such a bad thing it seems, with all the foreclosure and emotional distress ppl are facing.

no bottom in housing either

good articles: Interesting Finance & Economic articles 

what's a "motgage"

When economic graphs look like jagged mountain peaks, it's my calling card to head back into the wilderness for a spell...

I'll be @ Thunder & Lightning Pass on Monday~

Tim waiting for 2012, the builders are in depression - in both senses - economic and psychological.

Unlike the previous downturns, this one will go on and on. I remember talking to builders in 2006 who complained about how bad it was - and I told them: "Just wait - you ain't seen nothing yet."

best wishes

Seriously, this has to be one of the dumbest surveys out there. Homebuilders are dying, what do you expect them to say? It's awful and I give it a zero?? Of course not. How stupid.

Not so artful dodgers, homebuilders.

builder confidence reserves only last so long.

Anybody watching the move by the Israeli Navy?

Oh what a difference a day makes. Intel posts "better than expected loss" and thru the roof we go by 200+. Major player in the banking industry announces impending BK, Dow down 11.

/somthin' ain't right

Oh what a difference a day makes. Intel posts "better than expected loss" and thru the roof we go by 200+. Major player in the banking industry announces impending BK, Dow down 11.

/somthin' ain't right

Asymmetric warfare...

Give those Crying builders some Currently Smoking Cannibis, some Beer, and some In Vino Veritas -- they need to Party like it's 1999!

(from wiki)

In the Bizarro world of "Htrae" ("Earth" spelled backwards), society is ruled by the Bizarro Code which states "Us do opposite of all Earthly things! Us hate beauty! Us love ugliness! Is big crime to make anything perfect on Bizarro World!". In one episode, for example, a salesman is doing a brisk trade selling Bizarro bonds: "Guaranteed to lose money for you".

Yes, total taxes in dollars, family level vs. Federal Income taxes in percents at the individual level.

Now look at total State taxes:

http://cfo.dc.gov/cfo/lib/cfo/services/studies/Tax_Burden_05NATION.pdf

Interesting study (2005) by the D.of C. to see if their citizens are taxed enough.

Highlight: 1 to 6 disparity in total State taxation level by income levels.

Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 1:21 pm replyIgnore userAnybody watching the move by the Israeli Navy?

yes, with much passive interest

"Michigan's unemployment rate hit 15.2% in June. Ouch!"

OMG!!!

"That jump marked an increase of 1.1 percentage points over the May rate of 14.1%. The June rate was more than 7 percentage points higher than the 8.1% rate of June 2008."

Guess they aren't building too many new houses in MI.

By the way, China central planners are now starting to worry about overheating their economy with too much stimulus. Apparently, the stimulus are not all going into jobs; but instead is funneled into speculative assets and unsound companies.

Apparently, you can die from too much liquid in the system, even when growing parts of the system is dying from drought. Quite a bizarre scenario.

"Seriously, this has to be one of the dumbest surveys out there."

I find all confidence surveys dumb.

"How are you feeling today? Good? Good."

shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 1:21 pm reply Ignore user Oh what a difference a day makes. Intel posts "better than expected loss" and thru the roof we go by 200+. Major player in the banking industry announces impending BK, Dow down 11.

/somthin' ain't right

yet when the market performs, the economy is improving because of stimulus...

the market is not the economy stupid...80 % of the market is palyed by the same financial folks that gut us in this mess...

FD,
Same here. I am waiting to see (is it too early to call the president Dear Leader yet?) the US response.

I found it quite poignant how poor little Israel felt so threatened by the aspect of a country with no nuclear weapons, while they possess a shitlode of them...

"As grim as the June rate was, it captures only a portion of what's ailing the state's labor force. The official rate does not count discouraged job-seekers who did not bother to look for work last month. Once these people are added, the jobless rate rises to 17.4%.

Meanwhile, if part-time workers who cannot find full-time jobs -- the underemployed -- are added to that, the rate rises still higher to 22.5%."

The rise in builder sentiment in July was concentrated in the South, with a subindex gain to 20 from 15 in June. In the Midwest and West, sentiment remained flat, at 14 and 15, respectively. In the Northeast, the subindex fell to 16 from 19.

One out of four is better than none....I guess.

"yet when the market performs, the economy is improving because of stimulus..."

Plenty of examples of that - October 2007, anyone?

But yet...the stock market is counted as one of the Leading Economic Indicators.

Another useless statistic.

Apparently, you can die from too much liquid in the system,

Economic diarrhea.

"the same financial folks that gut us in this mess... " doodie

field dressed by the banksters

JD, you positive Iran has no nukes? 100% sure? I'm not. You want to talk delivery systems, that is another matter, and yes Israel looks like Goliath here, but you know what happened to Goliath....

777: got iodine pills?

/somthin' ain't right - shill

Intel's usual trading range is somewhere in the 20's. They're working back to that, because they look less dead than a lot of other plays. And they are set on killing AMD, which will consolidate their limitless power. A few little monopoly fines notwithstanding. They are Saruman to Bill's Sauron. OTOH, the people inside Intel are not too keen on Bill at all. And they are genuinely bored by the Wintel architecture. But nothing else has effectively challenged the regime.

CBO Chief: Health Reform Measures Would Weaken Economy
Instead of saving the federal government from fiscal catastrophe, the health reform measures being drafted by congressional Democrats would worsen an already bleak budget outlook, increasing deficit projections and driving the nation more deeply into debt, the director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said this morning.

People are too focused on the administrative costs of private insurance. The real problem with exploding health care costs is the coverage, which of course, no one wants to ration.

V777

I'm quite sure that Israel has submarines equipped with nuclear missiles...

As far as Iran goes, who knows?

Fudd, No, that is one event I am not prepared for, but I haven't really ever worried about dirty bombs...I have always been scared of a very simple fuel/air explosive device on a small plane detonated about 150 feet in some down town metropolis during lunch hour.

"And they are set on killing AMD"

Some pretty big judgments in the way of THAT. And low power chips for netbooks and servers.

I forgot how much I missed Paulson's stuttering.

As the methane from the melting poles started taking out huge swaths of human beans living near sea level, the survivors (all above 1,000 feet) dared not venture into the death zone below, but as food ran out, visions of sugar plums danced in their heads...

Juvenal Delinquent (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 1:31 pm replyIgnore userI found it quite poignant how poor little Israel felt so threatened by the aspect of a country with no nuclear weapons, while they possess a shitlode of them...

JD,

Be careful, even Momar Khadfi has said his peace re iran and nukes to BHO himself none the less.

The problem Isreal has is yes the have shitloads, and will use them, and are praying they dont have to.

But mark my words, they will use them. And i have to believe as a last resort. and no amount of support on the bat phone from the oval office will change their mind as we have not been convincing them that we have their back as an administration.

if iran has no nukes, or if they do and choose not to use them, then the point is moot.

the market is not the economy stupid...80 % of the market is palyed by the same financial folks that gut us in this mess...


I take it you were paraphrasing the word " stupid " so I'll refrain from telling you to go screw yourself as I am sure you were just "TRYing " to make a valid point.

Of which I'll reply to your " the market is not the economy stupid " as one of the stupidest things I have ever read or heard in my life...yet I continue to see it and read it.....stupidity runs deep..

And you call me stupid "palyed" ( holds up mirror for your convenience )

"Guess they aren't building too many new houses in MI."

But the resale market for refrigerator boxes is up, so they have that working for them.

Some pretty big judgments in the way of THAT. And low power chips for netbooks. - B

Trust me, they're already zombified. Just for one example, they are running ads for high-level engineers, and actually having trouble filling the slots, in this economy.

FD,

The Pandora's Box that we shut tight 64 years ago is creaking open and it's just a matter of time before weapons that should have never been built are used once again in anger.

Does it really matter who the protagonist is?

Just finished my chili, and it is simmering away til tonight...yum. A little hot for chili, but for some reason it sounded good tonight.

shill (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 1:49 pm replyIgnore user

shill, yes that was not intended for you, it was for all the anchors and writers that talk about the 200+ one day move and call a bottom...and while i know "the market " is part of the economy what i mean is the day to day movements are too small a snap shot for anyone to be calling an economic recovery... i was actually agreeing with you on the absurdity of the daily movements... one bank stock gaining 20% does not mean financials are poised for a rebound... crap like that...

no harm no foul

Vonbek,
Have you been peeking at my homepage?
Mrs. Gnome and I made chili on Sunday night.

Re: Israel.
I hope this is just saber rattling; but I fear it is not.

HomeGnome,
Missed the chili, and this is my own recipe in progress. Been working on it for three years, keeps getting better and better. Discovered putting in a little ground mustard does wonders.

the market is not the economy stupid...80 % of the market is palyed by the same financial folks that gut us in this mess...

Anyone who thinks the market doesn't greatly affect the economy doesn't track the correlation between consumer confidence, consumer spending and movements in the stock market.

Whether it should be and whether it's healthy to make policy decisions based on asset class movements is an entirely different discussion.

markets-more treasury auctions next week...should be some fireworks again....Where is this Isreal news..no links..come on folks...

Obama is doing the right thing distancing the USA from Israel, after a scary all-too cozy relationship during the Section 8 Years...

When everyone's retirement is tied up in the 'market' then it can hose main street.

creditcriminalslovetarp...story is all over, Israeli ships went through the Suez, practicing for possible Iranian action. A sub went through earlier, and while I am sure the US Navy knows where it is, I have a feeling Iran doesn't.

Does it really matter who the protagonist is?

no, probably not now, it's which weapon the protagonist uses that means the most to me at this point.

and really, i guess depending on whether you are "pro israel" or "anti israel" Pro palestinian or anti palestinian, pro christain anti christain... doesnt matter now as we can go back and back, and ownership has changed hands so many times for so many reasons, me , i am watching the future unfold for the umpteenth time it would appear.

Keep at it, Vonbek.
Homemade chili is good for the soul (if you believe in such things).
Smile

Is this because the homebuilders with the least confidence have already gone out of business?

" Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 1:21 pm

Anybody watching the move by the Israeli Navy?"

Link please? I can't see them from here on the East Coast of the US

Confidence games usually involve taking the mark to model, don't they?

Confidence games usually involve taking the mark to model, don't they?

confidence games mark to a paper bag filled with shredded newspaper....

or three cars face down on a suitcase on the street corner...

Commercial Mortgage Bond Market Stays Shut Amid U.S. Program

Commercial-Mortgage Market Stays Shut Amid U.S. Aid (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

shill,

And you call me stupid "palyed" ( holds up mirror for your convenience )

Come on shill give me a break, i bring the bad typing over from personally creating all the 1000 bullshi* facebook applications a day... don't you recognize the typing? Queens eng-rish? snark.

actually liberals sneak in my office at night and re arrange the key buttons on my keyboard.... sure of it...they are latino and the picture of Reagan by my desk doesn't help ; )~

Thank you MS the suspense was killing me.

whatever they are going to do it appears it won't be for a few months....look at oil doesn't even move on this.

I wouldn't put too much into this story....more like a non-story. But I guess people get ratcheted up by a few ships in the gulf.

Ciao
MS

Re: Israel.

Oil's well that ends well, I guess.
Wink

MS have you been watching the statements released by US generals regarding Iran?...I was tempted to throw this in the non-story category too...but just call it a hunch..something is up. Probably right about taking a couple of months though...

Now for something completely different:

Hunt called off for drug lord's hippo

A game of Hungry Hungry Hippo anyone?

Ot-are they taking the market to SnP 1000 on all this bad news...

Vonbek777 (profile) wrote on Thu, 7/16/2009 - 2:12 pm reply Ignore user

conventional wisdom here is that israel is just responding to the rhetoric. Not forcing the hand of iran yet. But since the UN responses and USA responses are muted at best/worst they feel a need to respond.

But Israel believes they cant let iran regime continue or will insight more local problems...

the question is will their movements cause iran to blink,draw or walk away with wave dignity.....

During the Section 8 Years, it was standard operating procedure to create a bigger mess somewhere else, to get people's minds off of a clear and present mess they might notice if they weren't just-in-time trained to think.

for Tim:

Who is CalPERS going to sue for the other $59B in losses?

CalPERS' lawsuit over a $1 billion investment loss represents its latest attempt to deal with market chaos that shrank its portfolio by 25 percent in the past year and will translate into higher pension contributions from the state and municipalities....

The losses represent a small portion of the roughly $60 billion CalPERS has lost in the past year due to declines in its stocks, real estate and other holdings. The losses are so steep that CalPERS has served notice that it will demand higher contributions from the state and the local governments that rely on the fund for pensions.

404 - Not Found - sacbee.com

Ot-are they taking the market to SnP 1000 on all this bad news...

What bad news?

Iran is all talk IMO......think of the implications of them actually attacking Israel. It would be a country filed with glass-holes if they did.

Now that doesn't mean that Israel wouldn't be pre-disposed to doing something similar to the action in the early 80's in Iraq. That is more plausible..however that removes any big fear factor going forward....and we all know how politics work on the basis of instilling fear.

Ciao
MS

Vonbek777 - try a bowl of your chili with a dollop of mexican sour cream in it. Smile

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